Egyik 19

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Europe

Hungary
(17 September 2024 8:53)  In Hungary, authorities are bracing for potential flooding along the Danube River, which runs through the capital, Budapest. The river is rising by about a meter every 24 hours, and officials have issued flood warnings along a 500km stretch of the river. Sandbags have been distributed to residents in flood-prone areas, and some roads in Budapest have already been closed in preparation for the rising water levels. (Source: independent)

Finland
September 17, 2024  Sweden said it is ready to lead NATO’s forward presence to be established in Finland. Although it is yet to be decided where the headquarters is to be located, Lapland is believed to host the new structure. It is not aimed at bring permanent NATO troops to northern Finland, but will be staffed with command officers preparing for troop deployment in case of war. In a joint declaration, the two countries underlines the need to secure transport communication in the northern regions between Norway, Sweden and Finland in order to cover the needs for supplies, trade and security. While Norway is not a member, Sweden and Finland will work to promote military mobility within the European Union. The declaration makes clear that interregional EU funding will be used to improve east-west communication. From the port of Narvik on the coast to the Norwegian Sea, Europe’s northernmost cross-border railway connects with Kiruna, Luleå and Happaranda in northern Sweden, from where goods can be shipped further into northern Finland via the reopened railway to Tornio. While the Council of the Baltic Sea States cooperation is highlighted with its own sub-chapter in the joint declaration, the Barents cooperation - a multilateral structure aimed to assist Russia’s northern regions integrate in international contacts - is not mentioned with a single word. (Source: thebarentsobserver *)
* The Barents Observer, a Norwegian online newspaper

Poland
(17 September 2024 8:53) Kolbiarz, the mayor of Nysa issued evacuation order today, urging all 44,000 residents to seek higher ground due to the risk of a nearby embankment breaching. “Please evacuate your belongings, yourselves, your loved ones. It is worth getting to the top floor of the building immediately, because the wave may be several metres high. This means that the whole town will be flooded,' Mr Kolbiarz wrote. The embankment holds back water from a large lake. In addition to the evacuations in Nysa, local authorities have ordered the evacuation of several nearby villages, including Kozielno, after the Topola reservoir in southern Poland overflowed. The water from the reservoir has already inundated parts of the region, and officials fear further breaches could exacerbate the situation. Prime minister Donald Tusk declared a 30-day state of natural disaster on yesterday, which will allow authorities to streamline the response efforts and provide aid to flood-stricken areas in the Lower Silesian, Opole, and Silesian voivodeships. Mr Tusk was announcing that one billion zloty (£197m) would be allocated to flood relief efforts. He also confirmed that Poland would apply for EU relief funds to support recovery in the affected regions. Nysa is not the only area at risk. In Wroclaw, a city of 600,000 people located in southwestern Poland, officials are preparing for peak water levels later this week. (Source: independent)

European Parliament
17-09-2024 - 10:19  EP leaders had an exchange of views with the President-elect of the Commission on the new College of Commissioners. The presentation of today paves the way for the start of the confirmation hearing process, once Parliament receives all the necessary documentation. The Committee on Legal Affairs will scrutinise the declarations of interests of the Commissioners-designate. This is an essential precondition for the holding of the confirmation hearings. Each Commissioner-designate’s responses to the written questions submitted by the Parliament will be published on Parliament’s website in advance of the confirmation hearing. The Conference of Presidents will organise the confirmation hearings based on a recommendation of the Conference of Committee Chairs. Each Commissioner-designate will be invited to appear before the appropriate committee or committees for a single confirmation hearing, lasting three hours. However, in the case of particularly large or complex portfolios involving more than one committee, the confirmation hearing may last for up to four hours. The confirmation hearings will be livestreamed. Parliament will evaluate Commissioners-designate based on their general competence, European commitment and personal independence, as well as assess their knowledge of their prospective portfolio and their communication skills. The committee coordinators will evaluate the individual Commissioners-designate after the confirmation hearing and prepare a single evaluation letter for each Commissioner-designate. 'To be approved, coordinators representing a majority of at least 2/3 of the committee members belonging to a political group', should approve the Commissioner-designate. If this majority cannot be reached, more information can be requested by additional written questions, or by a resumed confirmation hearing, lasting for 1,5 hours. The evaluation letters are conveyed to the Conference of Presidents, which can then declare the confirmation hearings closed and authorise the publication of all letters of evaluation. Following successful confirmation hearings, the President-elect will present the College of Commissioners and their programme at Parliament’s plenary, followed by a debate, and a vote to elect or reject the Commission as a whole, by a majority of the votes cast (by roll call). (Source: europarl)

Norway
16:12 BST, 17 September 2024  Traces of radioactive Cesium-137 appeared between September 9 and 12 and have been measured along Norway's border with Russia, it was revealed today. Norway shares a 121 mile border inside the Arctic Circle with Russia's highly militarised Murmansk region. Filters from Viksjøfjell and Svanhovd in Norway - close to the Russian border - are analysed once a week. 'The levels are clearly higher than normal, but pose no risk to humans or the environment,' said Møller, of the Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (DSA)'s Emergency Preparedness unit at Svanhovd. The cause of the mysterious spike is unknown. One fear is that it could relate to Russia's Pankovo test site for the Burevestnik - a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile - on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. The Barents Observer has in the course of the summer seen several cargo-ships and special purpose vessels in the waters outside Pankovo and over the last few weeks, Rosatom's two large Il-76 transport planes have periodically been parked at the airport in Rogachevo at Novaya Zemlya. The blue-coloured aircraft are believed to conduct operations connected to the Burevestnik testings. The missile is 'believed' to be launched by a solid-fuel rocket motor. Then a small nuclear reactor activates in flight, which potentially allows it to stay aloft threatening Western countries almost indefinitely. Yet there are also a few nuclear-powered icebreakers moored around Murmansk, and numerous maritime reactors onboard submarines in the region, home of Russia's Northern Fleet. Small leakages of Cesium-137 are more likely to appear during start-up or maintenance of a reactor or from handling spent nuclear fuel. (Source: dailymail)

Europe
Tue 17 Sep 2024 16.41 CEST  Storm Boris has dumped up to five times average September rainfall in four days. Weather in the region is expected to improve steadily from late on Tuesday.    In Austria, the state of Lower Austria has been declared a disaster zone. The flooding has broken a dozen dams, with muddy rivers raging through devastated villages and thousands of households without electricity and water. Twenty-six communities were still cut off. The army has been deployed across the region and a €300m emergency fund made available. In St Pölten, more rain has fallen in four days than in the whole of the wettest autumn on record 75 years ago.     In the Czech Republic, where more than 60,000 homes were still without electricity, the governor of the north-eastern Moravia-Silesian region, Belica, said 15,000 people had been evacuated and helicopters were delivering aid to towns and villages cut off by flood water. Eight people were unaccounted for. The fire service delivered bottles of drinking water to villages cut off by the floods, with people told not to drink tap water as it would be heavily contaminated.    In eastern Germany, authorities were taking precautions, with mobile flood protection walls set up in some areas to protect Dresden’s old city as the Elbe rose steadily. The river was expected to peak by midweek.    The Danube River was still rising in Hungary, including by about a metre every 24 hours in Budapest. Mobile dams were in place at the historical towns of Visegrád and Szentendre, north of Budapest. Tram lines and roads alongside the river, as well as the popular Margaret island, have been closed and a million sandbags distributed.    In Poland, the mayor of the historical city of Wrocław, Sutryk, said on today buses had been prepared for an evacuation. The Oder is expected to peak on Friday, or perhaps sooner, in the city, which is home to 600,000 people. Wrocław zoo, alongside the river, appealed for volunteers to fill sandbags. Near the border between Poland and the Czech Republic, one of the hardest-hit areas, 2,000 volunteers from the Polish town of Nysa’s population of 44,000 spent yesterday night helping rescue workers build up a burst river embankment. A huge reservoir near the border aimed at reducing water levels and preventing flood waters from the Odra and Nysa from merging – as they did in catastrophic flooding in 1997 – was about 80% full, authorities said.    The Danube River had peaked in Slovakia, the environment minister, Taraba, said, leaving parts of Bratislava’s old town flooded.     Storm Boris is forecast to move to northern Italy, where the region of Emilia-Romagna is bracing for the impact of 100-150mm of rainfall. (Source: theguardian / „Reuters, Agence France-Presse and Associated Press”)

(17 September 2024 8:53)  Heavy rainfall has caused rivers and reservoirs to overflow, prompting evacuations and warnings of further flooding in the coming days. As the storm continues to move south, more rainfall is expected today. But forecasters expected the weather to improve in central Europe from mid-week with much drier conditions prevailing. However, it may still take days for the flood waters to subside. (Source: independent *)
* headquartered United Kingdom

 North America

United States
Sep 17, 2024 08:16 IST  The US Secret Service said yesterday it was aware of a post by billionaire Musk on the X social media platform musing about an absence of assassination attempts on President Biden and Vice President Harris. A Trump supporter and the CEO of Tesla, Musk, wrote on Sunday, September 15: 'And no one is even trying to assassinate Biden/Kamala,' a post he ended with an emoji of a face with a raised eyebrow. X users 'from the left and right' said they were concerned his words to nearly 200 million followers could incite violence against Biden and Harris. Musk deleted the post. (Source: indiatoday)

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Europe

Hungary
(Monday), September 16, 2024 09:58  Hungary expects near-record water levels as flooding slams Central Europe. Hundreds of specialists and soldiers prepare defenses. The National Technical Steering Group of Water Affairs coordinate flood protection works in the country. More than 500 of its employees set off and are constantly arriving in the area of the North-Transdanubian and West-Transdanubian Water Directorates, which are most at risk of flooding, to help their colleagues who serve on the state defense lines. In the next six days, there is a prospect of water levels exceeding the third level in the Danube up to Adony, and in several places exceeding the level of preparedness for the first and second level of flood protection. The specialists of the National Water Warning Service currently believe that the water level in the section up to Budapest and in the capital will be about 40 centimeters lower than during the 2013 flooding peaks. Since it is still raining in the catchment areas of the Traun, the Enns, and the Vienna basin, this data will still need to be clarified, the spokesperson of the OVF, Siklós said.The most serious situation can be expected along the Szigetköz and Lajta, she added. A near-record amount of water will arrive with the flood in Szigetköz - the tidal wave on the Danube first reaches Hungary there, where more than 500 specialists of the National Directorate General of Water (OVF) are already present. In addition, the Tisza water affairs staff are also on hand to help as needed and the redeployment of forces and rescue workers is ongoing, including flooding and water management experts from the western Transdanubian who were defending themselves along the Rába and the Mura 24 hours ago. Preparations are also ongoing at the local governments, where the water technical managers are there, as well as the disaster prevention specialists. There are also state defense lines on the Danube for about a thousand kilometers, where the water experts can use the help of the soldiers for the work if necessary. Siklós indicated that “those who want to participate in flood defense can apply to the mayors”, who coordinate the defense of those self-defending settlements where the help of volunteers is needed. At Lajta, experts expect the peak flooding to approach the highest values ever measured. In defense of Mosonmagyaróvár, preparations are also underway for the opening of the Lajta reservoir. At Rába and Mura, peaks will also reach significantly high levels. In Budapest, the water can reach the lower quay, which lines the Danube, on tomorrow. On Sunday, Viktor Orbán inspected the water level of the Danube on the Római-part in Budapest. Experts are confident they can fight the crisis because the flood level will not be higher than the highest so far, so they will be able to cope with it. Mayor Karácsony wrote that the Budapest section of the Danube is also on level three flood protection alert, the Buda and Pest lower quays will be closed from 8 p.m. today. He indicated that the new protection facilities built after the great flood of 2013 in several flood protection sections are being tested live for the first time. Due to the rapid rise in the water level and the strong flow of the river, the mayor asks everyone who goes near the Danube to be extra careful in the coming days. Dömötör, a Hungarian lawmaker and former minister in the prime minister’s office, indicated that the Hungarian Defense Forces is providing 17,000 people, vehicles, and helicopters for flood protection. Hungarian Minister of the Interior Pintér visited Győr, where he reported that his ministry is properly organizing the defense on the Danube and Lajta. “The government has authorized the Ministry of the Interior to organize flood protection,” he said, adding that they will prevent the water from breaking through the dams of the Danube and Lajta. According to the forecasts, the water level of the Danube and the Lajta will reach a height similar to or higher than the flood of 2013, so special protection is needed on the two rivers, he said. (Source: rmx.news *)
* Remix, a Hungarian online news site. Provides news in English on Central Europe

France
16/09/2024 - 08:33  ’EU to name new defence tsar - but is the job a dud?” European Commission President von der Leyen has promised to name a new, designated defence commissioner as a key part of her new top team, ’to boost Europe's efforts to rearm’. What would it actually mean in practice? There are now major doubts over how much power it will actually have. During von der Leyen's first five years at the helm, the defence industry was overseen by powerful French commissioner Breton as part of his wide-ranging mandate. Now the defence brief is expected to be spun off to a dedicated new commissioner - with Breton promoted to a more senior role overseeing industrial growth across the bloc. Heavyweight EU member states no longer seem so keen to snaffle up the role, set to be unveiled as part of the bloc's new line-up in the coming days. The new defence commissioner is not a sort of EU defence minister - the 27-nation bloc has no army of its own and is not planning to set up one any time soon. Instead the main focus will be overseeing efforts to try to bolster the continent's defence sector. Since Moscow's all-out invasion, the EU has yet to come up with the major sums needed to match its ambitions on defence. Countries jealously guard their defence industries and have been reluctant to cede more control in the sector to Brussels. While von der Leyen has estimated that the bloc will need to invest 500 billion euros ($550 billion) overall on defence over the next decade - the figures on the table at an EU level are far below that. Convincing member states to spend chunks of their tightly guarded budgets on EU efforts will be a tough ask - as will getting them to open up their national producers to competition. And unless the new commissioner has considerable funds to play with, their job risks lacking firepower - defence budget of 100 billion would obviously have a bigger impact than a budget of 10 billion. Von der Leyen could fold in other responsibilities, the new EU defence commissioner could take over broader security responsibilities to increase the heft of the new job: cyber security, protecting critical infrastructure, space, or efforts to boost the ability to transport troops from one part of Europe to another. Breton will likely be looming from one side and on the other ’will be’ new foreign policy chief Kallas, whose role involves overseeing the bloc's security policy. Diplomats say the questions swirling over the new job have seen EU powerhouses such as France and Poland switch their priorities to obtaining other positions - with defence now a fall-back option. (Source: france24 / AFP)

European Parliament
(Monday), 16/09/2024 10:13  A four-day sitting of the European Parliament kicks off today, with Commission President von der Leyen and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán the headlining acts. But question marks hang over the appearance of both leaders. Von der Leyen's line-up of new Commissioners risks unravelling at the last minute. Major flooding in central Europe could dissuade the Hungarian premier from travelling to Strasbourg. Von der Leyen has been convened to unveil her 26-strong team of nominated European Commissioners - and the policy portfolios she will ask them to steer - during a meeting with the parliament’s president and political leaders tomorrow morning. But today, Breton - the French European Commissioner who had been nominated for another term - abruptly resigned from his post and pulled out from the race, accusing von der Leyen of personally lobbying France to withdraw his candidature 'You asked France to withdraw my name - for personal reasons that you have in no instance discussed directly with me - and offered, as a political trade-off, an allegedly more influential portfolio for France in the future College,' Breton's resignation letter, shared on X, reads. Orbán will address the Strasbourg plenary on Wednesday in a routine speech part of Hungary’s six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. On Tuesday, MEPs will debate the Hungarian decision to open up its “National Card” worker visa scheme to Russian and Belarusian nationals, 'paving the way towards permanent residency". The EU executive has asked for clarifications in a letter to Budapest. The Hungarian government has responded to that letter. Migration policy: Budapest ’threatened’ to bus irregular migrants from the Hungarian-Serbian border to Brussels - a direct retaliation for a €200-million lump-sum fine imposed by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in June. Orbán claims the EU owes his government money for failing to cover the €2 billion it has spent on “protecting the EU’s external borders.” (Source: euronews)

Russia
Mon 16 September 2024 at 6:19 pm CEST  President Putin has ordered the regular size of the Russian army to increase by 180,000 troops to 1.5 million soldiers. In a decree published on the Kremlin’s website, Mr Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen and women. Since 2022 Mr Putin had previously ordered two official increases in the number of combat troops – by 137,000 and 170,000 respectively. Russia mobilised over 300,000 soldiers in September and October 2022 in an exercise. The Kremlin has said that no new mobilisation is planned for now. The idea is to continue to rely on volunteers signing up to fight in Ukraine on lucrative contracts. The new order came as overnight Ukraine’s air force shot down 53 out of 56 Russian drones in the Kyiv region. Air defence units destroyed nearly 20 drones that were heading towards Kyiv, the Ukrainian military said. Meanwhile Russian troops continue to advance on Pokrovsk, a key city in eastern Ukraine. In Russia’s Kursk region – where Ukraine launched an audacious cross-border incursion on 6 August – Russia’s Defence Ministry said its troops had retaken the settlements of Uspenovka and Borki from Kyiv’s control. Kursk’s governor Smirnov also said Russians had been ordered to evacuate the region within 15km of the Ukrainian border today. (Source: uknews.yahoo / Independent)

Europe
Monday 16 September 2024 20:12, UK  At least 16 people have died after heavy flooding across eastern and central Europe. Over the weekend heavy rain and surging water levels forced evacuations, collapsed bridges and damaged houses and cars in central Europe.    The floods have claimed one life in Austria.    In the Czech Republic at least three people had died, while seven others were missing. Receding waters in mountainous areas today left behind destroyed homes, bridges and roads. Several towns and cities were submerged on Sunday in the northeast, where thousands were forced to evacuate. Czech authorities have declared a state of emergency in two northeastern regions which have seen the worst of the flooding. Today a broken barrier in the northeastern city of Ostrava led to hundreds more being evacuated.     The number of flood victims in southwestern Poland rose to five after the body of a surgeon returning from hospital duty was found in the town of Nysa today morning. Earlier the bodies of two women and two men were found in the region. Today afternoon the mayor of the Polish town of Nysa, which has a population of around 40,000, called on residents to evacuate immediately after a nearby floodbank was damaged. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a state of natural disaster in the flooded areas, in order to facilitate evacuation and rescue operations and expedite financial support for the victims. Many Polish cities have called for food donations for those in the flooded areas. Experts are warning of a further flood threat in Opole, a city of some 130,000 residents, and the city of Wroclaw, where 640,000 people live and where flooding was expected on Wednesday.    The floods have already claimed seven lives in Romania.    Flooding is predicted to impact     Slovakia and     Hungary next, as a low-pressure system from northern Italy has dumped record rainfall in the region since Thursday. People in Slovakia's capital Bratislava and the Hungarian capital Budapest were both preparing for possible flooding as the River Danube rose. The mayor of Budapest has warned residents the largest floods in a decade were expected to hit the capital during the week. (Source: news.sky )

North America

United States
Sep 16th, 2024, 11:47 am  Former President Trump directly blamed President Biden and Vice President Harris for a gunman targeting him at his West Palm Beach golf club yesterday – the second assassination attempt since the near-deadly July shooting in Pennsylvania. “He believed the rhetoric of Biden and Harris, and he acted on it,” Trump said, claiming, “Their rhetoric is causing me to be shot at, when I am the one who is going to save the country, and they are the ones that are destroying the country - both from the inside and out,” Trump today morning claimed. He pointed to Biden and Harris’ past comments casting Trump as a 'threat to democracy,” while telling Americans they are "unity' leaders. “These are people that want to destroy our country.” „They are the real threat,” Trump added, appearing to use the exact same kind of language he claims the Democrats are using that inspired the shootings. 'They do it with a combination of rhetoric and lawsuits they wrap me up in. These are the things that dangerous fools, like the shooter, listen to - that is the rhetoric they listen to, and the same with the first one,' Trump said. 'They use highly inflammatory language,' Trump later added. 'I can use it too - far better than they can - but I don’t.” (Source: mediaite *)
* an American news website focusing on politics

September 16, 2024 9:03 AM  A gunman attempted to assassinate Republican presidential candidate Trump on Sunday (Sept 15) at Trump's golf course in Palm Beach. The suspect is Routh, 58, of Hawaii. On X, Facebook, and LinkedIn, three accounts bearing Routh's name suggest he was an avid supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia. The New York Times had interviewed Routh in 2023 for an article about Americans who were volunteering to help the Ukraine war effort. Routh told the Times he'd traveled to Ukraine and spent several months there in 2022 and was trying to recruit Afghan soldiers who fled the Taliban to fight in Ukraine. On X in 2020, Routh expressed support for Democratic US presidential candidate Sanders and mocked Biden as "sleepy Joe”. (Source: asiaone *)
* Headquartered Singapore

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Europe

Austria
(Sunday), 15.09.2024  Since Friday, water levels in several Austrian rivers have risen dramatically. Lower Austria is experiencing the most severe conditions, where according to local authorities, numerous streams have already burst their banks as a result of the heavy rain. The fire department in some municipalities in Lower Austria north of Vienna reported that they had to rescue trapped people from their homes overnight between Friday and Saturday. Residents living on riverfront streets were asked to leave their homes in several municipalities. Two subway lines in Vienna were partially shut down as a precaution. Austrian authorities on Sunday declared the northeastern province of Lower Austria a disaster area due to the flooding situation, where one firefighter was killed. The situation continues to worsen due to the massive rainfall throughout the country, Governor Mikl-Leitner said in Sank-Polten today morning. “For many, these will probably be the most difficult hours of their lives,’ she added. Lower Austria's designation as a disaster area grants local authorities additional powers, such as ordering evacuations. The Ottenstein reservoir on the Kamp, which is already nearly full, could overflow during the day. This would cause the river's lower reaches to swell dramatically once more, according to Austrian energy supplier EVN. The Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) has forecasted another 60 liters of rain per square meter ’in the coming hours’, with more flooding expected across the country. The situation is particularly precarious along the Kamp and Krems rivers, which flow into the Danube. (Source: aa)

Czechia
(Sunday), 15/09/2024 - 10:26 GMT+2T  Severe floods, thousands evacuated in the eastern region of Moravia, and more than 260,000 are without power on Sunday morning. Strong winds caused trees and branches to fall onto power lines downing several utility poles. With the most eastern region of Moravian-Silesia enduring the worst power-cut, as 114,000 customers were affected. Thousands have been evacuated in the region. In Krnov large parts of the town, including the centre, were underwater. The Opava River has risen from one metre to nearly five metres, with a third-level flood alert in effect. The village of Mikulovice in the north-east, which hosts around 2,500 inhabitants, has seen its houses and roads flooded. Yesterday, in the second biggest city Brno, more than 180 patients were evacuated from the Brothers of Mercy Hospital to other facilities. Firefighters have responded to nearly 6,000 incidents in the last three days, severely impacting road and rail transportation. About 40 sections of railway tracks, especially in the Jesenicko area, are closed due to flooding, with the main Prague-Ostrava rail corridor at Studénka station heavily affected. Czechia's Prime Minister Petr Fiala had announced after meeting with emergency services earlier this week that the country needs 'to be ready for the worst case scenarios'. (Source: eurnews / AP)

France
(Sunday), Sep. 15 (2024)  Fears of the confrontation escalating into a direct collision between Moscow and the NATO bloc have skyrocketed over the past few days, as the US and its allies reportedly consider authorizing Kyiv to conduct strikes deep in Russian territory using Western weaponry, Le Monde reported on Saturday. While France has announced 'no official position” on the matter, Paris has been concerned about potential escalation and has been trying to avoid it. On Thursday, Putin warned that removing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons would directly involve the US and its allies in the conflict and would be met with an appropriate response. The president said that such weaponry relies solely on Western intelligence and targeting solutions, with Kyiv effectively unable to use it on its own. That position has been reiterated by Russia’s envoy to the UN, Nebenzia, who warned the move would constitute an 'open war' between NATO and Russia. "Our Western colleagues will not be able to dodge responsibility and blame Kyiv for everything,” Nebenzia stated. (Source: mehrnews * / MNA)
* headquartered Iran

Poland
15/09/2024 - 14:37 GMT+2  Poland's foreign minister Sikorski wants social security benefits for Ukrainian male refugees of draft age in the EU to stop, saying it encourages draft dodgers in Ukraine. There should be no financial incentives for avoiding the draft in Ukraine, to ’help Ukraine's war effort’, Sikorski said, during the Yalta European Strategy, a forum for discussing Ukraine’s European future which was held in Kyiv. ’It's not a human right to be paid to avoid the draft, to defend your country,’ he told. Russia still has a strong advantage over Ukraine in terms of soldiers as well as weapons. Earlier this year, Ukraine already implement measures that included lowering the call-up age for combat duty to 25 from 27 to increase the pace of mobilisation into the army. Ending financial aid to Ukrainian men would save countries like the Netherlands and Germany tens of billions of euros if they decided to spend it elsewhere, Sikorski said. According to Sikorski, that money could be spent on the prevention of Russian drones crossing into NATO members' airspace, and could help Ukraine by strengthening the protection of Ukrainian nuclear power plants from air assault. The Zaporizhzhia plant, which came under Russian control in the wake of its full-scale invasion, saw artillery shelling in the area that damaged the facility’s power access. (Source: euronews)

Europe
(Sunday), September 15, 2024 4:19 PM CET  Heavy rains moved over Central Europe from Italy in a phenomenon known as the Genoa low - from a low pressure area typically forming near the northern Italian city. The downpours led to increased runoff of water in the rivers, some of them overflowing dams and embankments, washing away bridges and inundating towns. Authorities declared the province surrounding Vienna a disaster area. Parts of the Czech Republic, southern Poland and Romania were underwater today after torrential rains in recent days caused massive flooding. The Czech Republic and Poland ordered evacuations from several flooded towns, while roads were closed and events canceled. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk received flak earlier last week after saying that ’forecasts aren’t overly alarming.’ In the following days became clear that some locations would receive the equivalent of a few months’ precipitation in just four days. The Polish government deployed the army to the most affected areas in scenes similar to the catastrophic floods in 1997 and 2010. European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU 'stands ready to support' areas hit by the flooding, in solidarity with all affected by the devastating floods in Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, she said in a post on X today. At least 7 deaths have been reported in the region, following days of heavy downpours - One died in Austria,. two in Poland and four in eastern Romania. Forecasts are for the adverse weather to gradually ease by Tuesday. (Source: politico)

(Sunday), 15/09/2024 - 10:48     Four people are missing in the Czech Republic, authorities said today, as Storm Boris lashed central and eastern Europe with torrential rains and flooding. Three were in a car that was swept into a river in the northeastern town of Lipova-Lazne, and another man was missing after being swept away by floods in the southeast. Heavy rains are expected to continue until at least Monday in the Czech Republic and Poland.      'We have the first confirmed death by drowning, in the Klodzko region' on the Polish-Czech border, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said today morning. Around 1,600 people have been evacuated in Klodzko, and Polish authorities have called in the army to support firefighters on the scene. (Source: france24 / AFP)

(Sunday), 15 Sep 2024 2:44 PM MYT  Floods, fatalities, blackouts. Since Thursday, swathes of Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia have been hit by high winds, rains and floods triggered by Storm Boris, which has brought widespread disruption to central and eastern Europe.    In Austria, firefighters have intervened around 150 times in the capital Vienna since Friday to clear roads blocked by storm debris and pump water from cellars. Emergency services had made nearly 5,000 interventions overnight in the state of Lower Austria, where flooding had trapped many residents in their homes. Austria registered winds of 146 kilometres an hour in the south.  Rail services were suspended in the country’s east early Sunday and several metro lines were shut down in the capital Vienna, where the Wien river was threatening to overflow its banks. Four thousand homes in the Styria region are without power and the 'peak is yet to come', Chancellor Karl Nehammer warned. In mountainous areas of the west, snow halted traffic and rescue services were searching for a man reported missing after an avalanche. Parts of northeast Austria have been declared a natural disaster area. Some areas of the Tyrol were blanketed by up to a metre of snow – an exceptional situation for mid-September, which saw temperatures of up to 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) last week.     Around 100,000 firefighters have been mobilised in the Czech Republic, where nearly 2,900 incidents were recorded on Friday, most of them due to fallen trees and floods. Almost 50,000 homes were without electricity on Saturday, and a hospital in the southeastern city of Brno was evacuated on Saturday morning.    in Poland, the government warned the situation would be the most difficult in the southwest going into Saturday afternoon and evening. Authorities have shut the Golkowice border crossing with the Czech Republic after a river flooded its banks, closed several roads and halted trains on the line linking the towns of Prudnik and Nysa.    Four people have died in Romania in floods. In Slobozia Conachi, a village in Galati, 700 homes had been flooded. Hundreds of people have been rescued across 19 parts of the country.    Slovakia has declared a state of emergency in the capital, Bratislava. (Source: malaymail / AFP)

North America

United States
15.09.2024  Biden plans to use his remaining months at the White House to focus on Ukraine support, to ensure Ukraine is in the best possible position to prevail in its war with Russia, said National Security Adviser Sullivan yesterday, speaking remotely at a forum in Kyiv. He confirmed that Biden will meet with President Zelenskyy at the UN General Assembly in New York later this month to discuss continued US support. 'President Zelenskyy has said that ultimately this war has to end through negotiations, and we need them to be strong in those negotiations,' Sullivan said, emphasizing that Ukraine would determine the timing for any talks with Russia. Sullivan acknowledged delays in aid delivery, citing logistical challenges, not political hesitation. As the US election looms this fall, Biden's successor will either continue his policies through Democratic Vice President Harris or potentially shift course under the Republican candidate, former President Trump who has signaled he wants the conflict to end. Biden’s term ends in January, making him a so-called lame duck president. (Source: aa *)
* Anadolu Ageny (Turkey)

(Sunday, 15 September 2024) 8:49  The UK and the US have reportedly discussed their shared concern that Russia provided nuclear secrets to Iran in exchange for ballistic missiles for its Ukraine war. Prime minister Keir Starmer and US president Biden discussed 'the fact' that Iran and Russia are strengthening their military cooperation during a summit in Washington on Friday, which also covered other key issues around war in Ukraine, including Kyiv’s use of Western long-range missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia. Early last week the US secretary of state Blinken told reporters in the UK that Iran has supplied short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. The weapons would likely be used in the war against Ukraine in the coming weeks. He warned about Russia sharing secret nuclear data with Iran as well as 'some space information'. “Dozens of Russian military personnel have been trained in Iran to use the FATH-360 close-range ballistic missile system, which has a maximum range of 75 miles. Russia has now received shipments of these ballistic missiles and will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine,' he said. The United States, Britain, France and Germany hit Tehran with more sanctions. Iran has denied supplying weapons to Russia, rejecting the claims as 'completely baseless and false”. 'The potential deal' is expected to increase pressure on the US and UK to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles – Britain’s Storm Shadows and US ATACMS – to strike military targets inside Russia. It was a key topic discussed during the Washington summit but no decision was announced. (Source: independent *)
(* headquartered United Kingdom)

South America

Venezuela
Sep 15, 2024  Three American citizens, two Spaniards and a Czech citizen were detained in the country on suspicion of plotting to destabilize it through "violent actions," the government in Caracas said. Venezuelan Interior Minister Cabello said that those detained had 'contacted French mercenaries, they contacted mercenaries from Eastern Europe and they are in an operation to try to attack our country.' He added that more than 400 rifles were seized and accused the detainees of plotting 'terrorist acts.' The United States denied Caracas' allegations it was involved. The State Department spokesperson additionally confirmed that a U.S. military member was being held. Tensions between Caracas and former colonial power Spain rose sharply after Venezuelan opposition candidate Urrutia, 75, went into exile in Spain a week ago, after being threatened with arrest. Maduro's claim to have won a third term in office sparked mass opposition protests, which claimed at least 27 lives and left 192 people wounded. About 2,400 people, including numerous citizens in their teens, were arrested in the unrest. Maduro's tenure since 2013 has seen GDP drop 80% in a decade, prompting more than 7 million of the country's 30 million citizens to emigrate. (Source: japantimes / AFP-JIJI)

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Vatican
September 14, 2024 5:02 AM   Yesterday, Pope Francis, leader of about 1.4 billion Catholics globally, held a news conference aboard the papal plane on his flight back after his demanding 12-day journey across Southeast Asia and Oceania. He criticised both former US President Trump over his plan to deport millions of immigrants and Vice President Harris over her stance supporting abortion rights. The pope called immigration "a right,’ citing Bible passages that call orphans, widows and foreigners three kinds of people that society must care for and said there could be no excuses for an abortion. "On these things we must speak clearly. No 'but' or 'however'." The pontiff said not welcoming migrants is a grave sin, and likened having an abortion, forbidden by Catholic teaching, to an assassination. Although he did not use Trump and Harris' names, Pope Francis referred specifically to their policies and their genders. Despite criticising both candidates, the pontiff said Catholics should vote. "Not voting is ugly," the 87-year-old pontiff said. "It is not good. You must vote." American Catholics, numbering roughly 52 million nationwide, are often seen as crucial swing voters. In some battleground states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, more than 20 per cent of adults are Catholic. "Whether it is the one who is chasing away migrants, or the one who that kills children," said the pope. ’Both are against life." Trump has promised to crack down on illegal immigration and deport millions of immigrants already in the US if elected to a second term as president. He has also refused to rule out building detention camps for undocumented immigrants. Harris has promised to sign any legislation passed by Congress to restore national protections for abortion access, which were struck down by the Supreme Court in its 2022 Dobbs decision. The two candidates sparred over both issues on Wednesday in their first debate together. Most polls show a tight race, with Harris leading slightly. "You must choose the lesser evil," Pope Francis said. "Who is the lesser evil? That lady, or that gentleman? I don't know. Everyone, in conscience, (has to) think and do this." The US bishops have issued a similar election guidance each presidential cycle since 2007-08, with some updates. Their latest version, released with a new introduction in November 2023, states that the 'threat of abortion' is a "preeminent priority" for Catholics. (Source: asiaone *)
* AsiaOne, a Singaporean news and lifestyle website and news aggregator

United States
2024-09-14 15:42:33  Yesterday, during a press conference, former U.S. President and Republican presidential nominee Trump said he will be able to solve "most of the problems" related to North Korea and Iran through phone calls and possibly in-person meetings. He has been highlighting his foreign policy chops in comparison to that of his Democratic rival Harris, quoted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as saying Trump should be reelected president because Russia, China, and North Korea are ’afraid of him." Referring to the 2021 Kabul airport terrorist attack during the Biden administration's withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan that killed 13 U.S. service members, Trump said they were killed by Biden and Harris, and that the administration should not have failed. (Source: world.kbs *)
* the Korean Broadcasting System, a leading South Korean television and radio broadcaster

Sep 14, 2024 08:17 IST  ’Be quiet’: Biden snaps at a British reporter - the Sky News correspondent - asking him about Russia's Putin war threat to the West if Ukraine was allowed to use long-range missiles. The incident happened as Biden and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer held a key meeting at the White House in Washington. The United States has provided 'over $55.7 billion in military assistance so far' since Russia launched its offensive in Ukraine in February 2022. As pressed Biden on Putin's threat, the 81-year-old US President shot back, 'I say you be quiet until I speak. Okay? That's what I say. Good idea?' As the journalist persisted with his question, Biden rebuked him again, 'You have got to be quiet. I am going to make a statement here, okay?' At the meeting with Starmer, Biden said Putin would not prevail in the war with Ukraine. 'The US is committed to standing with you to help Ukraine as it defends against Russia's onslaught of aggression. It's clear that Putin will not prevail in this war,' Biden said. After the meeting ended, the reporter again asked Biden about his thoughts. 'I don't think much about Putin,' Biden said. Earlier this week, President Putin warned that Russia would be 'at war' with the United States and its NATO allies if they lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range Western missiles to strike deep inside the country. Putin's remarks came as US Secretary of State Blinken, during a recent visit to Ukraine's Kyiv, hinted that the White House was considering lifting the restrictions. However, the White House ’scotched’ the speculation, saying it was not planning to announce any new policy on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles. Calling Putin's rhetoric 'incredibly dangerous', the White House, however, stated, "There is no change to our view on the provision of long range strike capabilities for Ukraine to use inside of Russia." (Source: indiatoday)

14/09/2024 - 07:31  US President Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer postponed a decision on allowing Ukraine to use long-range Western-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia following a meeting at the White House on Friday. The two leaders plan to revisit the issue at the upcoming UN General Assembly amid growing concerns about the conflict's escalation and Moscow's warnings that such moves could provoke a war with NATO. (Source: france24 / AFP)

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Europe

Germany
(13 September 2024) 16:45  'Welcome!' Germany has agreed to open the doors to 250,000 skilled and semi-skilled Kenyan workers in a controlled and targeted labour migration deal. Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Kenya's President Ruto signed the deal in Berlin. The agreement will also simplify the repatriation of Kenyans who are in Germany without legal permission. Both governments will support the immigration of skilled workers who have finished vocational training or earned a university degree, as long as their qualifications are recognised by the relevant authorities of the other party. But there are concerns about a brain-drain in Kenya with professionals like doctors and nurses going abroad for jobs, leaving local hospitals with a huge shortage of medical workers. Germany took in more than one million people, mostly fleeing war in countries such as Syria, during the 2015-2016 migrant crisis, and has received 1.2 million Ukrainians since February 2022. (Source: bbc)

Russia
(13 September 2024) 9:04  Putin draws new red line on long-range missiles. This morning’s Kommersant newspaper captured the drama. “ Putin draws his red line.’ President Putin considers that the targeting of internationally recognised Russian territory with Western missile systems would take the conflict to a new level. Speaking in St Petersburg, President Putin sent a clear warning to the West: don’t allow Ukraine to use your long-range missiles to strike Russian territory. Moscow, he said, would view that as the 'direct participation' of Nato countries in the war in Ukraine. “It would substantially change the very essence, the nature of the conflict,' he continued. “This will mean that Nato countries, the USA and European states, are fighting with Russia.' He claimed that, for missile launches into Russia, Ukraine would require data from Western satellites and that only servicemen from Nato member states would be able to ’input flight missions into these missile systems’. In June., at a meeting with the heads of international news agencies, he was asked: how would Russia react if Ukraine was given the opportunity to hit targets on Russian territory with weapons supplied by Europe? “First, we will, of course, improve our air defence systems. We will be destroying their missiles,” President Putin replied. “Second, we believe that if someone is thinking it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, why can’t we supply our weapons of the same class to those regions around the world where they will target sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?' Arming Western adversaries to strike Western targets abroad is something that Moscow has been considering. Earlier this month, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Ryabkov, announced that Russia was set to revise its nuclear doctrine: the document that lays out under what circumstances Moscow may consider using nuclear weapons. He suggested that the decision to revise the doctrine was “connected with the escalation course of [Russia’s] Western adversaries'. Yesterday, Russia withdrew the accreditation of six British diplomats, accusing them of 'subversive activities' and threatening Russia’s security. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer is in Washington for talks with President Biden. Among the issues the two leaders are expected to discuss is the question of Ukraine and long-range missiles. (Source: bbc)

September 13, 2024 9:30 am CET  Early yesterday, Russian forces fired five missiles and 64 drones toward Ukraine’s Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Poltava regions. Ukraine's air force reported shooting down 44 drones but none of the missiles Russian aviators fired from jets early yesterday morning. Over the past 24 hours Russian troops have occupied the village of Lisivka and pushed closer to Pokrovsk, about 10 kilometers distant. Pokrovsk, a city in Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, is a key node for army logistics which is facing intense shelling. The work of the modular filter station, thanks to which Pokrovsk received water, was stopped. Russian forces have increased their push to the south on the towns of Kurakhove and Vuhledar, a Ukrainian stronghold about 80 km from Pokrovsk and have started probing Ukrainian defenses in Kherson region to the south on the Black Sea, trying to capture islands in the Dnipro River in small groups, using boats and jet skis. (Source: politico)

Ukraine
September 13, 2024 at 11:19  The International Monetary Fund said on September 10 it had reached an agreement with Ukraine on an aid programme review that could open the door to $1.1 billion for the country. The deal would see creditors - including BlackRock, Pimco and other major institutional investors - write billions off the nominal value of their holdings, and agree to a new payment schedule ’on terms more beneficial to Kyiv”. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager headquartered in New York, provides advice to the Ukrainian government on its Ukraine Development Fund (UDF), which aims ’to attract investment to help rebuild the war-battered country. A false claim about BlackRock surfaced online in August, quickly spreading across Facebook, X and Telegram and in languages such as Russian, English, Serbian and French, racking up thousands of shares: US investment firm BlackRock representatives 'have already bought 47 percent of Ukraine's land' and requested on a recent visit to Kyiv that 'this land not be used for burials and that the bodies be cremated or disposed of in other ways,' a simplified Chinese X post shared on August 3, 2024. Ukraine is one of the world's major grain producers thanks to its fertile "black" soil. Foreigners are not permitted to buy agricultural land in Ukraine and can only buy non-agricultural land if they meet certain legal conditions, according to the Land Code of Ukraine. "According to our research over large land leases in Ukraine presented in our report; 'War and Theft, the Takeover of Ukraine's Agricultural Land', BlackRock doesn't own any land in Ukraine', Mousseau, policy director at the US-based Oakland Institute think tank - which has published reports on agricultral land reform in Ukraine – said on August 22. Agricultural land privatisation began in Ukraine in 2021, Mousseau said, potentially providing indirect exposure to land assets, but no single investor could reach 47 percent of the country's total land mass in this way. BlackRock does hold other Ukrainian assets, he confirmed. 'Ukraine has been forced by creditors to undertake an ongoing drastic structural adjustment program aiming at privatise all sectors of its economy.' 'BlackRock owns part of Ukraine's debt through Eurobonds, which gives the company leverage over the country,' Mousseau added. (Source: factcheck.afp)

North America

United States
Friday, September 13, 2024 5:17 AM / 4:11 AM   Trump's running mate, Vance, has suggested how their administration might seek to end Russia's war in Ukraine, should they win the White House. Vance said potential peace talks with Trump could involve a "heavily fortified" demilitarized zone at the countries' borders. 'I think what this looks like is Trump sits down, he says to the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans: You guys need to figure out. What does a peaceful settlement look like? And what it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarized zone,' he told the Shawn Ryan Show podcast in an episode released Wednesday. Russian President Putin's Russia has taken military control of about 20 percent of Ukraine since 2014 when it annexed Crimea. The prospect of peace talks has been raised several times, without success, since February 2022. Trump, who served as president from 2017 to 2021, has claimed on multiple occasions that he would have ended the war in Ukraine "in 24 hours" if he won the 2020 presidential election. He has also said repeatedly that if reelected, he would swiftly bring an end to the war in Ukraine by speaking with Putin. Vance didn't specify exactly where he thinks the demilitarized zone should be, but said it would be "heavily fortified so the Russians don't invade again.' "Ukraine remains its independent sovereignty, Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine - it doesn't join NATO, it doesn't join some of these allied institutions. That is what the deal is ultimately going to look something like," he said. Vance said he believes Trump will be able to "come to a deal very quickly" because "they're scared of him in Russia, they're worried about him in Europe because they know he actually means what he says." "The Russians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans are all saying, we can't fight this war forever. But why the hell are you fighting it for another day if all of them are trying to find a way to solve it? The answer is, you're not going to solve the war but you can at least bring the thing to a stop," he continued. "The answer is, Biden is asleep at the wheel, Harris doesn't know what the hell she's doing, and so, their policy is throw money at this problem, hope the Ukrainians are able to achieve a military victory that even the Ukrainians are saying 'we can't achieve,'" Vance added. Reuters reported in May, citing four anonymous Russian sources familiar with the matter, that Putin was ready to "freeze" the war in Ukraine on current front lines. "Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire - to freeze the war," a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin told the publication. The Kremlin has previously specified a few conditions that are non-negotiable for Russia, including that Ukraine must accept the September 2022 annexation of four of its regions -Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - following referendums called by Putin that were deemed illegal by the international community. Ukraine has said that any peace deal must invalidate the September 2022 annexations of its territory, and that Crimea must once again be considered part of Ukraine. The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5. (Source: miamiherald / Newsweek)

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United States
Thursday, 9/12/2024 11:00 AM  The prospect of an assassination was on the minds of some Trump supporters long before the Butler rally. In December 2020, Trump told friends he feared Iran might try to kill him as retaliation for the drone strike he ordered to kill Maj. Gen. Soleimani, according to the book “The Divider” by Baker and Glasser. Last year, as Trump stared down four separate criminal cases, he repeatedly passed on invitations to speculate that an assassination attempt could be in his future. “Are you worried that they’re going to try and kill you?” Carlson asked Trump in an interview released on the same night as the first primary debate, in which Trump did not participate. Trump didn’t directly answer, In his first public statements after the July 13 shooting, Trump thanked law enforcement, offered condolences to the rallygoers killed and wounded, and called for unity. On the first night after Trump was injured in an assassination attempt in Butler, Pa., some supporters and allies, including campaign staff, immediately began blaming President Biden and Democrats before any information was available about the shooter or his possible motive. The observation that the rally attendees in Butler stayed and watched Trump rather than flee quickly became a popular feature of the story, usually offered as testament to their courage and dedication to Trump - making the brush with disaster something they survived together. That night, after Trump took off in his plane and police cleared the fairgrounds where the rally was held, people put out Trump signs and banners and spray-painted “FIGHT” on the streets. An anonymous petition circulating online gathered more than 7,000 signatures to ask the county judge to impanel a grand jury to investigate the assassination attempt, alleging that federal agencies have conflicts of interest and “possible perceived corruption.” The Secret Service repeatedly turned down the Trump campaign’s requests for additional resources. The attempt on Trump’s life left him unusually spiritual and amazed to be alive, according to people who spoke to him immediately afterward. He stayed relatively quiet through the start of the Republican National Convention that opened just two days later. He began with a dramatic retelling of the assassination attempt, saying it would be the only time because it was “too painful.” He was joined onstage by the firefighter uniform of slain rallygoer Comperatore, and at one point he walked over to kiss the white helmet. “When he stood up after being shot in the face, bloodied, and put his hand up, I thought, at that moment, that was a transformation. This was no longer a man,” Carlson said in his speech on the convention’s final night. “I think it was divine intervention. But the effect that it had on Donald Trump - he was no longer just a political party’s nominee, or a former president, or a future president. This was the leader of a nation.” Depictions of Trump's raised fist after the assassination attempt decorated his July 24 rally in Charlotte. The photo of Trump raising his fist with blood on his face has supplanted his mug shot as the defining image of his campaign, symbolizing the feeling of defiance that Trump has made core to his political persona. Republicans’ new rallying cry became the “Fight! Fight! Fight!” chant inspired by Trump’s first words after getting shot. There would be shirts proclaiming “Still Standing … Impeached, Arrested, Convicted & Shot” and “You Missed.” Some delegates wore paper flaps over their ears in solidarity with Trump’s bandage. Trump proceeded to recount the shooting again and again. At the July 31 rally in Harrisburg, he marveled that the Butler rally had not turned into a stampede when the gunshots rang out. “They all said, ‘Trump is going to be a nice man now. He came close to death.’ And I really agreed with that for about eight hours or so. So, I was nice for about, what would you say, three, four, or five hours, and then I said, ‘These are bad people. We have to win this battle,’ he said. .” Secret Service Director Cheatle resigned under pressure in July, and there are ongoing investigations by congressional committees, the FBI and Homeland Security’s inspector general. In recent weeks, the Republican presidential nominee began promoting conspiracy theories such as those that label the assassination attempt an “inside job” by government agencies. Trump and his running mate, Sen. Vance (R-Ohio), frequently portray the attempt as part of efforts by political opponents to prevent the former president from returning to power. In a recent podcast interview, Trump pointed to FBI Director Wray’s initial uncertainty in congressional testimony about what hit Trump’s ear as reason to distrust him. His frequent retellings of what happened in Butler serve to deepen his bond with his supporters by fostering a collective experience of overcoming adversity. That shared feeling gets intensified by a perceived indifference from the media, as attention quickly moved on from the shooting to Trump’s selection of Vance and Harris’s replacement of Biden as the Democratic nominee. “The more we see what happened that day, the more suspicious it all looks,” ’right-wing’ podcast host Crowley said in an interview with Trump released on Aug. 29. “It looks like the three-letter agencies are slow-walking a lot of this evidence, a lot of the videos, etc. Does it look increasingly to you like this was a suspicious, maybe even inside job?” “It’s very suspicious,” Trump replied. “The more you see it, the more you start to say, ‘There could be something else.’” Trump campaign senior adviser Hughes said: “President Trump wants to ensure we learn where failures happened and how to prevent them in the future.” Trump allies and surrogates are already echoing his language or going further. In a Sept. 6 radio interview, Sen. Johnson (R-Wis.) drew a line connecting the JFK assassination, the downfall of President Nixon and the Butler shooting. “We’ll probably never know because there’s a reason you call it the deep state,” he said. “It’s very deep. It’s very pervasive.” ’This is all set up to prime his base to believe that, if his loses in November, the Democrats have once again stolen the election, that Harris is illegitimate, and they should in some respects come to his defense,’ said Walter, a professor at the University of California at San Diego and the author of ’How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them.’ “I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me,” Trump said at Tuesday’s ABC News debate with Vice President Harris. (Source: msn / The Washington Post)

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Europe

Hungary
September 11, 2024 5:27pm EDT  In 1944, hundreds of Nazi Germany's explosives-laden Black Sea fleet vessels were scuttled along the River Danube, destroying the ships themselves as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces. After a drought in July and August that saw the river's water level drop, four vessels have come to light in Hungary's Danube-Drava National Park near Mohács, this year. Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still have turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others lie mostly submerged under sand banks. Wrecks of ships have also emerged near Serbia's river port town of Prahovo. The Danube stood at 1.17 metres in Budapest today. During floods the Danube rises well above 6 metres there. Long-awaited rainfall set in on Monday (September 9) is expected to raise Danube levels by the weekend, with the river likely to submerge the shipwrecks again. (Source: foxnews / Reuters)

11.9.2024 17:55  Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants to station about 200 soldiers in Chad to stem migration, after meeting Chadian leader Deby in Budapest. "Chad is a key country in the fight against illegal migration in Africa. Migration from Africa to Europe cannot be stopped without the countries of the Sahel region. That is why Hungary is building a partnership with Chad. We are working on this today and tomorrow with President Deby," Orbán stated. Bordering Sudan, Libya, Niger, and the Central African Republic, Chad, which as a population of approximately 19 million, occupies a crucial position in the Sahel strategic location. Its status as a key Western ally in a volatile part of the world, underscores its significance in the global geopolitical landscape. By deploying troops in Chad, Orbán has economic interests in the region. The Hungarian prime minister is also trying to score political points at a time when troops from EU member states like France have lost favor and are scaling down on their presence in the Sahel, Owusu, a Ghanaian political and security analyst, told. The abundant resources in the Sahel in terms of oil, uranium, gold, and other resources are yet to be exploited, Owusu said. "Gold, cobalt, lithium, and other resources are major pull factors that could pull Budapest to the Sahel, and they should not be overlooked." But while some think the deployment could significantly impact the security situation in the Sahel region, Owusu is skeptical. "Chad itself is far larger than Hungary and many Western European countries. Therefore, 200 troops may not make an impact," he emphasized. If Hungary is interested in Chad's resources, then perhaps eventually it will have to contribute more forces to ensure that such interests are well protected, Awusu added. Cummings, a security analyst at Signal Risk in South Africa, told that strategies the Sahelian states have used to counter armed non-state actors, usually from a military perspective, have not effectively addressed security challenges in the region. "Up until now, the strategy by Sahelian countries where they've leveraged off European or Western forces, or whether they've leveraged off Russian forces, focuses on addressing the symptoms and not the causes of these insurgencies or why these terrorist groups are receiving the support that they're receiving," Cummings said. Over the past year, Hungary has rapidly developed ties with Chad, opening a humanitarian aid center and diplomatic mission in the capital and signing agreements on agriculture and education. Hungary has a historically weak presence in Africa, but Orbán has championed a foreign policy of opening up to the East and South by seeking closer ties with China, Russia, and African countries. Marsai, director of the Migration Research Institute, said Budapest has also sought a more significant military role in the Sahel to train its defense forces. Hungary this time would need to provide everything by itself. This could pose significant challenges, particularly in terms of resources and coordination. Despite disagreements with Budapest, the European Union welcomed Hungary's initiative in Chad. Amid the domestic and regional challenges, "it is important for more international partners to work with Chad," an EU spokesperson told AFP news agency. But at home, the military mission has drawn criticism, with opposition parties branding the deployment 'dangerous and wasteful." The Hungarian government has also been accused of nepotism. The premier's only son, Gáspár, had discreetly participated in official negotiations. Budapest dismissed the criticism, pointing to Gáspár's language skills and expertise as a captain in the Hungarian army. He has since been appointed a "liaison officer to help prepare the mission in Chad." (Source: dw)

United Kingdom
(11 September 2024)  ’There are strong indications that the US and UK are poised to lift their restrictions within days on Ukraine using long-range missiles against targets inside Russia.’ ’The UK has supplied Storm Shadow long-range missiles to Ukraine’ after a request from Kyiv for its fight against invading Russian forces. Storm Shadow is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of around 250km. The French call it Scalp. It is launched from aircraft then flies at close to the speed of sound, hugging the terrain, before dropping down and detonating its high explosive warhead. Storm Shadow is considered an 'ideal' weapon for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores. Each missile costs nearly US$1 million. Britain and France have already sent these missiles to Ukraine - but with the caveat that Kyiv can only fire them at targets inside its own borders. They have been used with great effect, hitting Russia’s Black Sea naval headquarters at Sevastopol and making the whole of Crimea unsafe for the Russian navy. Kyiv has lobbied for its use inside Russia, particularly to target airfields being used to mount the glide bomb attacks that have recently hindered Ukrainian front-line efforts. Moscow has already taken precautions for the eventuality of the restrictions being lifted. It has moved bombers, missiles and some of the infrastructure that maintains them further back, away from the border with Ukraine and beyond the range of Storm Shadow. Even if Russian aircraft pull back further from Ukraine’s frontiers to avoid the missile threat they will still suffer an increase in the time and costs per sortie to the front line. At the Globsec security forum in Prague this month, it was suggested that Russian military airbases were better protected than Ukrainian civilians getting hit because of the restrictions. Kyiv argues that in order to push back the Russian air strikes, it needs long-range missiles, including Storm Shadow and comparable systems including American Atacms, which has an even greater range of 300km. ’Storm Shadow is unlikely to turn the tide’. ’It might "unlock' another system, the Atacms’. ’Washington worries that although so far all of President Putin’s threatened red lines have turned out to be 'empty bluffs', allowing Ukraine to hit targets deep inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles could just push him over the edge into retaliating. The fear in the White House is that hardliners in the Kremlin could insist this retaliation takes the form of attacking transit points for missiles on their way to Ukraine, such as an airbase in Poland. If that were to happen, Nato's Article 5 could be invoked, meaning the alliance would be at war with Russia. Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the White House's aim has been to give Kyiv as much support as possible without getting dragged into direct conflict with Moscow, something that would risk being a precursor to the unthinkable: a catastrophic nuclear exchange’. (Source: bbc)

North America

United States
Wednesday, September 11, 2024 8:31 pm CET   'Ukrainian hopes that U.S. Secretary of State Blinken would use the occasion of his Wednesday trip to Kyiv to announce a loosening of the rules preventing it from hitting targets inside Russia with donated weapons came to nothing". Kyiv is starting to regularly attack Russia 'with its own long-range weapons'. Today, the Arctic city of Murmansk, 2,000 kilometers to the north of Ukraine, shut two of its airports after reporting attacks by Ukrainian drones. A day earlier, Ukraine attacked Moscow and other targets inside Russia. Both the U.K. and the U.S promised continued military aid. UK FM Lammy announced over £600 million in humanitarian, military and economic support during the visit. Blinken announced $717 million in new economic and humanitarian assistance. Further supplies of Western weapons to Ukraine are 'fraught with uncontrolled escalation,' warned Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova today. 'And we’ve now seen this action of Russia 'acquiring ballistic missiles from Iran', which will further empower their aggression in Ukraine. So if anyone is taking escalatory action, it would appear to be Mr Putin and Russia,' Blinken said. He added: 'We're working with urgency to continue to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to effectively defend itself.' 'I can announce we will now also send hundreds of additional air defense missiles, tens of thousands of additional artillery ammunition rounds and more armored vehicles to Ukraine by the end of the year,' Lammy added. (Source: politico)

September 11, 2024 4:54pm EDT  During Tuesday night's presidential debate, former President Trump discussed his relationship with foreign leaders, - leaders of rival nations and allies alike during his term - most notably Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the "strongman" of Europe. "He’s a tough person, smart prime minister of Hungary," Trump said, adding that Orbán insisted "you need Trump back as president" because "they were afraid of him.’ "China was afraid, and I don’t like to use the word afraid, but I’m just quoting him," Trump said. 'China was afraid of him. He said Russia was afraid of him." "Look, Viktor Orbán said it: He said the most respected, most feared person is Donald Trump. We had no problems when Trump was president," Trump added. Trump also responded to Vice President Harris’ claim that he ’admires dictators, wants to be a dictator on day one" and he "exchanged love letters with Kim' by noting that Russian President Putin had endorsed her last week and said he hoped she wins 'because what he’s gotten away with is absolutely incredible.’ Trump said Russia's invasion of Ukraine would never have happened during his time in office, noting that he knew Putin 'very well." Trump has repeatedly compared his foreign policy record to that of the Biden administration, roping in Harris as part of that policy, and noted the more interventionist approach he took, using force as deterrence against Iran and meeting with Putin and North Korean leader Kim to ensure stability in regions faced with uncertainty. Trump and Orbán enjoyed a rosy relationship during the Trump administration, often pictured together smiling and shaking hands in sharp contrast to the more demure meetings between Orbán and Biden. During a visit to the U.S. in March, Orbán visited with Trump, not Biden, when trying to court potential foreign policy in the U.S. He also spoke at a panel with the leader of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. Orbán made headlines over the summer when he prematurely ditched a high-level NATO summit in Washington, D.C., to meet with Trump in Florida at a time when Biden faced questions about his fitness for office and in seeking a second term. Orbán was seeking a cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, having met separately with Putin and Zelenskyy. "We continued the peace mission in Mar-a-Lago," Orbán wrote on his official social media account on X after the meeting. "President @realDonaldTrump has proved during his presidency that he is a man of peace. He will do it again!" "It was an honour to visit President @realDonaldTrump at Mar-a-Lago today," he wrote in a separate post that labeled the visit "Peace mission 5.0." "We discussed ways to make peace. The good news of the day: he’s going to solve it!" Orbán, who assumed the role of president of the European Union as part of a six-month rotational leadership scheme,’joked’ at the time that Hungary would "make Europe great again" and ’warned’ that "the next American president will not be the same president who is today." He told other leaders at the formal NATO dinner that allies who still thought Biden could win the upcoming presidential election "were like people on the Titanic playing violins as the ship went down." (Source: foxnews)

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Europe

Russia
(Tuesday), 10/09/2024 - 14:11  Today Russia launched its largest navy drills of post-Soviet era alongside Chinese warships. China sent four warships and a supply vessel to the exercise, joining Russia's naval fleet in the Sea of Japan. The major naval exercise will see Moscow sail through waters spanning the Northern Hemisphere and Pacific. The wider drills will take place in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean, Caspian and Baltic Seas, and are set to become one of the Russian army's main operational and combat training events of 2024.The "Ocean-2024" drills will continue until September 16 and will involve more than 400 warships, submarines and other maritime vessels. Also taking part are more than 120 aircraft and helicopters, about 7,000 units of weapons, military and special equipment, and more than 90,000 personnel. President Putin will make an address formally opening the Russian-led exercise and will oversee them from a situation centre in the Kremlin. The Japanese defence ministry said it had observed five Chinese naval ships entering the Sea of Japan heading in the direction of Russia, sailed north-eastwards through the Tsushima Strait towards the Sea of Japan from Saturday to Sunday. The Tsushima Strait lies between South Korea and Japan and connects the South China Sea and the Sea of Japan and is not within Japanese territorial waters. (Source: france24 / AFP)

10.9.2024 10:21  Authorities temporarily shut down three airports outside Moscow -  Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky. The Russian capital was targeted with one of the heaviest waves of Ukrainian drones of the war, Moscow says. More than 140 Ukrainian drones targeted Russian regions, including Moscow and those on the border with Ukraine. It is the second such massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia this month. Overall, Russia's Defense Ministry said it "intercepted and destroyed" 144 Ukrainian drones over nine Russian regions. The Russian military on September 1 had intercepted 158 Ukrainian drones in more than a dozen Russian regions. At the time, Russian media described it as the biggest Ukrainian drone barrage since the start of the war. Meanwhile, Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu says Ukraine's cross-border attack on Russia's Kursk region last month has failed to distract Moscow's forces from their objectives, to slow the advance in the eastern Donbas region. "They are losing up to 2,000 killed and wounded every day. In total, if we talk about 8 days in September and August, almost 1,000 square kilometers of territory have been liberated. The pace is increasing," Shoigu said. Ukraine's air force shot down 38 out of 46 Russia-launched drones during an overnight attack across 13 regions. Russia also used two missiles in its attack. The Ukrainian Energy Ministry says Russian forces have attacked energy infrastructure in eight Ukrainian regions in the past 24 hours. The attacks had disrupted high-voltage lines and power substations. In the Cherkasy region, the strike damaged an infrastructure facility and caused a fire. Authorities in Kyiv reported no damage or casualties in the city itself. Moscow's forces have ground ahead through the Donetsk region in recent weeks, in the direction of Pokrovsk, a strategic logistics hub for Ukraine. (Source: dw)

NATO

10 Sep 2024  What the Indo-Pacific is becoming for the United States, Wider Mediterranean Africa (WiMedAf) will become for NATO's European members. NATO is preoccupied with its eastern flank, it does so at the risk of overlooking equally strategically important developments elsewhere. The African-Mediterranean region is crucial for European security. Of North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 32 members, nine face the Mediterranean Sea. Sicily is about 150 kilometres from the North African coast; the Canary Island of Fuerteventura is less than 100 kilometres west of Morocco. The Italian government uses the concept of "Wider Mediterranean” to refer not just to the area immediately around the Mediterranean, but spanning as far as the Middle East and Persian Gulf as well as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. It is an area of primary importance in which Italian interests are projected and must be protected for reasons of national security. Many countries here are already a vital supplier of gas, oil and raw materials for Europe. At least 40% of global maritime trade passes through WiMedAf waters. Beneath the waves, communication cables connect Europe to India and East Asia. The region is the starting point for migration waves that have pushed European politics to the right. By 2050, Africa alone ’is expected’ to be home to 25% of the global population. Countries like Egypt, Nigeria and Ethiopia have booming populations and are only going to grow in geopolitical significance. New tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, as a result of a defence deal between the former and Somalia, is an example of this. China, Russia and other revisionist powers are increasingly active in the WiMedAf region. China’s is based on loans, investment and trade, although many governments in the region are beginning to realize that all that glitters is not gold. Russia's is primarily one of hybrid warfare, such as the deployment of mercenaries, the massive use of disinformation, and supporting coups and subversive forces - evident from Libya to the Sahel and in the Central African Republic. Expanding the Wider Mediterranean definition even more, to cover the entire African continent, ’NATO needs to focus more’ on what is going on there, strengthening democracy and governance in the region by implementing ad hoc programmes in like-minded countries such as Cape Verde, Senegal, Mauritius and Ghana. It would also be important to strengthen ties with partly free countries such as Tunisia, Morocco, Kenya, Kuwait and Mozambique. NATO launched two partnership forums for WiMedAf countries – the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. Cooperation could include improving accountability in defence establishments, sharpening counter-terrorism capabilities and bolstering defence against cyber-attacks, disinformation and other hybrid warfare. NATO could also extend assistance in the event of pandemics and natural disasters as well as help WiMedAf energy exporters improve security of their infrastructure. It already has a blueprint for this kind of work, as it cooperates in these areas with countries like Moldova, Ukraine, Mongolia and Pakistan. NATO should increase its forward presence in the southern part of its territory just as it has already bolstered its eastern flank, reducing drug and human trafficking. It should not be interested in stationing military assets in this region, as Russia has done in Syria. Working more closely with African and Middle Eastern partners is not a roadmap to joining NATO - an option NATO's founding treaty forecloses on, anyway. The focus must be on working with organizations and governments that lean towards the West and support the rules-based international order. The recent appointment of a Special Representative for the Southern Neighbourhood, Spanish diplomat Colomina, was a step in this direction. The goal is democratic reform and knowledge exchange, not a new kind of European colonialism.
(Source: ’theparliamentmagazine.eu’ *)
* a monthly magazine, "owned by Dods', a British company (Total Politics Group, owned by Lord Ashcroft, a businessman and former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party)
by Catania, the director of the OGGNIL, a geopolitical think tank based in Italy

Globalization

10.09.24  International criminal law’s potential to adress online harms is Ukraine, Palestine, and beyond. Sharing footage of crimes to the internet, on social media is one of the harms, which has been particularly noticeable in both Ukraine and Palestine. Russian and Israeli combatants have allegedly filmed and uploaded violent footage of what likely constitute war crimes. In March and April 2023, two videos went viral circulated widely on Telegram and X of what appears to be Russian soldiers executing Ukrainian prisoners of war. In both instances, the videos could not be authenticated with absolute certainty, but information such as the clothing worn and language spoken suggested that Russian soldiers filmed the executions themselves and potentially shared them to wider audiences. This is also similar to content that has emerged from Palestine, where in addition to other imagery of alleged crimes, IDF soldiers have posted videos of Palestinian detainees stripped, blindfolded, and bound to TikTok, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram. In one particular video shared on Instagram by an account identifying as an IDF soldier, which was verified by Bellingcat, bound and blindfolded detainees, one with an Israeli flag tied to him, are shown on the ground while a soldier taunts them and throws dollar bills at them. A sticker of a praying Israeli soldier was added on top of the footage. These examples demonstrate the alleged perpetrators’ desire to further degrade and humiliate the victims through sharing the video online. Tthe soldiers depicted are mocking the detainees, dehumanise them, reducing them to tools to be used to boast about alleged crimes and spread propaganda. The psychological and moral harms that arise from sharing footage of crimes online are similar in nature to those previously recognised in ICL jurisprudence. For instance, in Al-Werfalli, the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber stated in its two arrest warrants that ‘the posting on social media of the videos depicting executions’ and ‘the manner in which the crime was committed and publicized was cruel, dehumanizing, and degrading’ (para. 29, para. 31). When images are posted online on social media, they essentially are thrown into permanent circulation. It is virtually impossible to stop the footage from being reshared. Victim’s families and friends may be forced to constantly relive their trauma. Members of the general public will also come across the violent content while scrolling online - another layer of harm that was not possible prior to the development of social media. Chambers at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in Furundžija and the Special Court for Sierra Leone in Fofana and Kondewa have acknowledged the serious mental harm that can come to third parties who witness violent acts committed against others. Secondary trauma to those who innocently view the videos can manifest in psychological ailments such as post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. Maliciously sharing the content online can conceivably constitute its own additional crime. The harms are recognised in elements of existing international crimes, including torture, the crime against humanity of ‘other inhumane acts’, and the war crimes of inhuman treatment, wilfully causing great suffering, and outrages upon personal dignity. Multiple domestic war crimes trials have convicted and sentenced perpetrators for similar acts for outrages upon personal dignity. Courts in The Netherlands, Finland, Germany, and Sweden have convicted individuals of the war crime of outrages upon personal dignity for posting photos and videos to social media of themselves posing with or mutilating corpses in the context of the conflict in Syria. The digital harm of filming and sharing footage of crimes has not yet been addressed by an international criminal court or tribunal.Given the violent nature of the footage previously mentioned that is coming out of Ukraine and Palestine can be marginalised and silenced victims of ‘new’ harms? The Russian and IDF soldiers seem to be boasting about their crimes in a similar way that the individuals prosecuted in domestic courts were posing with the bodies of victims. It is not unreasonable to speculate that these acts could be addressed in future prosecutions at courts such as the ICC. Their recognition by international legal institutions will be critical in order to ensure justice for victims in a digital age.
(Source: opiniojuris *)
* an independent blog, in partnership with the International Commission of Jurists
by Zarmsky, a PhD Candidate and Assistant Lecturer at the University of Essex Human Rights Centre with a focus on international law and new and emerging technologies. In 2023, she was a Visiting Scholar at the Human Rights Center at the University of California, Berkeley School of Law

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Germany
Monday, 9.9.2024 16:27  The ’far-right’ anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won state elections in the state of Thuringia last week and came second in another state, Saxony. Germany's coalition government has been consulting with the main "conservative opposition’ CDU and CSU parties on ways to curb migration in the face of public concern. German Interior Ministry Faeser's Social Democrats are facing a state election in Brandenburg in two weeks, where her party  -  which is also that of Chancellor Olaf Scholz -  governs in coalition with the Greens and Christian Democrats. The German Interior Ministry has announced an extension of passport controls along all of the country's land borders, aimed at curbing the number of people entering Germany without visas to limit irregular migration and address threats from Islamist terror groups and cross-border criminal organizations. In response to a sharp increase in first-time asylum requests last year, Germany had already imposed some repeatedly extended stricter controls on its borders with Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Switzerland. Germany shares more than 3,700 kilometers of land borders with Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland. All are fellow members of the Schengen Zone, within which there are usually no restrictions and checks on travel. The controls start from next Monday and are to initially set to last for six months. (Source: dw, "with dpa, Reuters')

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European Parliament
07/09/2024 - 8:00 GMT+2  Pending a confirmation vote by lawmakers, Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister wish the EU’s top diplomatic role - the High Representative for Foreign Policy - helming the bloc’s external action in regions including Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. She has a limited track record in diplomatic engagements beyond Europe’s eastern flank - her support for Ukraine has defined her rise to international recognition. Kallas is under pressure to prove she has the experience and commitment to steer the European Union’s diplomacy beyond its eastern flank. If Kallas is to let her support to Ukraine define her mandate, it could lead to further ambiguity over the famous question, "Who do I call if I want to call Europe?" coined by former US Secretary of State Kissinger. Some in Brussels fear Kallas' term in office will be inevitably centred on the war in Ukraine and the progressive erosion of the decision-making power of the High Representative - who can only act with the unanimous endorsement of all 27 member states - means the EU's relevance in the Global South could further diminish. And Von der Leyen has pledged to appoint a new European Commissioner for the Mediterranean. It means the current portfolio of Várhelyi will be split to delineate the so-called 'enlargement' countries - both in the Western Balkans and the Eastern flank - from other neighbourhood countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The decision is a reflection of von der Leyen's double standards in how she views cooperation with the two regions, Amnesty International's Baoumi said. The enlargement group will be more values-driven, seeking to anchor democracy, stability and rule of law, whereas the Commissioner for the Mediterranean will focus more on issues connected to energy, security, migration and quite vague cooperation in areas of mutual interest. "This is a very clear message that the promotion of human rights, democracy and the rule of law is reserved for a certain group of countries that have a future in the European Union." Others say that the damage that has been wrought on the EU’s reputation in the Middle East and the Global South during Borrell's mandate is irreparable - the EU has lost whatever remaining credibility, clout or influence it had in recent years, and Kallas will hardly be able to change anything at all. Among Borrell's proposals to exert diplomatic pressure on Israel are sanctioning extremist Israeli ministers and convening Israel to discuss its compliance with human rights obligations in the EU-Israel cooperation agreement. He has manoeuvered to table these proposals despite member states' objections. The risk for Kallas is not being able to learn the lessons of previous High Representatives in terms of how you deal with the member state dynamics and internal decision-making processes. Under Kallas, more "pro-Israel' decision-makers within the wider executive, including Commission president von der Leyen herself, could wield more influence on the bloc’s response to the Gaza war. Von der Leyen faced fierce criticism for her immediate response to the conflict when she failed to speak up about the humanitarian emergency engulfing the Gaza Strip. Civil servants have accused the institution that employs them of failing to uphold its ideals of human rights, peace and the rule of law. Powerful civil servants within the European External Action Service (EEAS) bureaucracy have aimed to tighten their grip on the EU’s Middle East policy. A greater role for the Commissioner for the Mediterranean in the EU's relations with Middle Eastern countries could mean Kallas' relevance as an actor in the region being further diluted. (Source: euronews / „EP’/

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United States
September 6, 2024  Planning for a post-American NATO, „Europe must prepare for a second Trump term”. By the end of January 2025, the Europe’s most important partner, the United States, could be led by former President Trump, who has said that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell it wanted” to European countries that did not do what he wanted: spend more on defense. Freed from the influence of the traditional Atlanticist Republicans who staffed his cabinet in his first term, a second-term Trump would face fewer obstacles to making good on his threats. The magnitude of the change that a Trump victory could bring is far too great for Europe to sit by and hope that the former president loses at the ballot box. European governments stuck their heads in the sand. Trump has ’warned’ that he would immediately cut all U.S. aid to Kyiv and demand a quick end to the war, which would likely require Ukraine to cede a significant part of its territory to Russia. And that could just be the start. Trump has long questioned the value of NATO, so it is not inconceivable that he would strip back the U.S. commitment to defend Europe. He could enact the analyst Maitra’s widely circulated “dormant NATO” proposal, in which the U.S. military would provide logistics support as a last resort but leave all other NATO defense responsibilities to Europe, or follow in the footsteps of French President de Gaulle, who removed France from NATO’s military command (but not the alliance itself) in 1966. There is no reason Trump could not act quickly. As commander in chief, he could vow never to order U.S. troops to fight for Europe and take steps to withdraw the United States from NATO’s military command. Without the United States to provide military leadership and capability, European capitals could quickly turn against one another over Ukraine. Countries in central and eastern Europe, for instance, may double down on their commitment to the survival of a strong Ukraine, fearing that a Russian victory would give Moscow the opportunity to rebuild, rearm, and then, with the help of a compliant Belarus and Ukraine, issue new threats across the border. Many western European countries, meanwhile, might decide that, with the United States out of the picture, the best option would be to force Ukraine to make extensive concessions to Russia. A European security alliance could collapse under the weight of such incompatible outlooks. European countries and institutions must start planning now. The continent’s leaders will need to grapple with many hard questions. The most urgent among them fall into three categories: how to structure European security, who should lead the effort, and what capabilities Europe must acquire.     The most straightforward and best solution would be for Europe to assume control of the North Atlantic Council, the decision-making authority within NATO, being familiar to all NATO countries in Europe and having an established secretariat. European countries could also repurpose NATO facilities, such as the NATO Defense College, that are scattered across the continent. ’The new NAC could draw upon other European institutions for support, too. The EU, for example, could help coordinate the national legislative change and bloc-wide financial planning that will be necessary to prepare European societies for a potential conflict’. ’And although the NAC would remain the primary decision-making body for NATO members’, the European Political Community, which was established after Russia’s 2022 invasion and counts several non-NATO countries among its members, would play an important role as a forum for discussing security matters that affect the region as a whole. European countries have essentially outsourced geopolitical leadership to the United States for the last 75 years or so. ’No European country has experience with that job, and there is no natural leader for the rest to converge upon’. Berlin, crippled by political indecision, has failed to display leadership so far in the war in Ukraine. Having cozied up to Russia before the 2022 invasion, and joining the United States in limiting aid to Ukraine after, Germany has lost the trust of many of the central and eastern European countries that fear ending up on a new frontline. The openly pro-Russian positions espoused by the ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany and ’far-left’ Reason and Justice parties, both of which made strong showings in last weekend’s regional elections, raise additional concerns. France could be a better option. As one of Europe’s two nuclear powers, France would necessarily play an important and immediate role in European security if the United States were to withdraw. The French have a competent military. Yet Paris, like Berlin, carries serious liabilities. In the early months of the invasion, Macron favored reaching some kind of arrangement with Russian President Putin, and today, politicians on France’s increasingly empowered ’far right’ and far left, as in Germany, seriously discuss cutting aid to Ukraine. The United Kingdom, Europe’s other nuclear power, would bring many positive attributes to the leadership role. London, as a ’consistent supporter’ of Ukraine, is aligned with Europe’s frontline countries. The United Kingdom also has long-standing defense ties with fellow members of the Joint Expeditionary Force, a military grouping of ten Baltic, Scandinavian, and other northern European nations. But after its 2016 decision to leave the EU, it is almost impossible to see EU countries agreeing to British strategic command. Europe could seize the opportunity to make a less conventional choice for its security leadership. Poland has emerged as a strong candidate. It is a large country with a growing economy, and it took defense seriously even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Over the past few years, Warsaw has undertaken the most substantial military buildup on the continent, increasing both the fraction of its GDP spent on defense and the forces deployed to its borders with Belarus and the Russian enclave Kaliningrad, and its defense budget target of five percent of GDP for 2025 outpaces the rest of Europe. ’Already seen as a leader in central and eastern Europe’, Poland understands frontline countries’ concerns about Russia in a way that a western European government cannot. Given that Poland shares a border with Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, its military would be critical ’in a larger war with Russia’. Warsaw, aware of this, is now expending significant resources to upgrade its army and air force. Before the war in Ukraine, a land-centric military such as Poland’s would not have been considered capable of leading European forces. But NATO’s traditional emphasis on air and sea domains was largely a function of the centrality of the United States, which relied on long-range air and sea capabilities to project power across the Atlantic. Without Washington, the picture changes. If Europe is defending itself, its land power, supported by tactical airpower, becomes its bulwark. Thus, once Poland expands its air force - it is now amassing one of Europe’s largest fleets of F-35 and F-16 fighter jets - the country will have a striking case for security leadership. 'If the need arises, a Polish officer could be selected as the first supreme allied commander for a European NATO'. This choice would make political and strategic sense to show both frontline states and Russia that Europe is serious about protecting its eastern flank. A strong signal of this kind is sorely needed; the appointed successor to Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary-general, Mark Rutte, most recently served as prime minister of the Netherlands, a country that has consistently failed to meet the NATO defense spending target of two percent of GDP. Elevating a Polish commander would also smooth the way for a civilian leader from western Europe, ensuring the political balance that would be crucial to European unity in the early stages of post-American security planning. Europe has outsourced many essential defense capabilities to the United States. It has neglected to develop the basic capabilities it would need if the United States were to draw down. Perhaps the most glaring among them is a system for intelligence sharing among European states. For decades, Europe has relied on the Five Eyes - the intelligence network that includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States - to conduct much of its intelligence work. The United States does the bulk of the data collection - high-end, space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. Washington’s retreat from Europe would thus disrupt the flow of information. European countries would have to rely on local sources for data collection and analysis. Setting up the architecture to share intelligence among European NATO members will be a challenge in the absence of U.S. leadership. Althoug reams of data, it turns out, do not always produce good intelligence or insight. Some of the best intelligence work on Russia over the past few years has in fact come from smaller countries with more specialized knowledge. The Baltic states and the Nordic states, for instance, have consistently provided useful information about Russian capabilities and intentions. Ukraine, too, has done a credible job analyzing Russian strengths and weaknesses, and ’Kyiv’s intelligence capacity has enabled operations such as a strategic air campaign against Russian oil production’. Europe’s country-by-country weapons production is also wildly inefficient. Across the ten main categories of major weapons systems - such as fighter aircraft or destroyers - the United States maintains 33 types of systems. Europe maintains 174. This has limited European militaries’ interoperability and created a logistic nightmare. Decades of peace and Europe’s concentration on boutique capabilities have also left the continent with insufficient weapons arsenals. Individual countries’ protectionist impulses to bring investments home would replicate the inefficiencies of Europe’s small-scale, national weapons production. „European countries have not moved as quickly as the United States to address their production capacity shortfalls - a problem they will need to rectify in order to plan for an end to or a drastic reduction in U.S. material support for Ukraine’. The European Political Community should negotiate a framework for joint - its own - research and development. The task has largely been farmed out to the United States. NATO’s London-based Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic, which became operational last year, has begun to extract lessons from the war in Ukraine, especially regarding dual-use technologies that originate in the civilian sphere - European countries could repurpose and expand this model to fill the resulting gap. Logistically, Europe would have to confront issues around deployability. „Without U.S. capabilities, European militaries could not maintain any kind of global presence; they do not have the capacity for long-distance air deployments of fighting units on their own”. Europe will need to invest in the full breadth of tactical airpower, while it integrates the capacities of European militaries. „European NATO might have to confront life without the U.S. nuclear deterrent”, it would also need to build up a credible European nuclear deterrent, separate from the United States. In the long term, the nuclear deterrent would have to be fully Europeanized. A United States with little military presence on the continent - and with an administration that looks rather benignly at Putin - could not credibly warn Europe’s enemies that it would put its nuclear weapons in play ’in the event of an attack’. ’This is not to say Europe should reject a slimmed-down U.S. deterrent if a Trump administration were to offer’. In the short term, the job would fall to France and the United Kingdom, which both have small nuclear arsenals. The immediate challenge will be ’coordinating the deployment’ and refitting of the British and French nuclear arsenals. Furthermore, ’London and Paris must begin to expand their deterrents to the rest of the continent’. Europe’s nuclear capacity would need to be fully independent. As long as Russia maintains its vast nuclear arsenal, Europe will need to protect itself from Russian nuclear blackmail. Europe would have to manufacture a nuclear delivery system. At present, European states have the ability to produce nuclear warheads on their own. But they have outsourced the means to deliver those warheads -the United Kingdom today shares a nuclear missile fleet with the United States. (Source: foreignaffairs)
by O’Brien, Head of the School of International Relations and Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews; Stringer, a senior fellow at Policy Exchange, a retired RAF Air Marshal, and former Director General of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom.

September 06, 2024   "Many of the recruits drafted under Ukraine’s new conscription law lack the motivation and military indoctrination required to actually aim their weapons and fire at Russian soldiers. “Some people don’t want to shoot. They see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don’t open fire… That is why our men are dying,' said a frustrated battalion commander in Ukraine’s 47th Brigade. “When they don’t use the weapon, they are ineffective.' In Ukraine, an expanded military draft has failed to overcome the reality that most young Ukrainians do not want to kill and die in an endless, unwinnable war. Hardened veterans see new recruits much as Sassoon described the British conscripts he was training in November 1916 in Memoirs of an Infantry Officer: “The raw material to be trained was growing steadily worse. Most of those who came in now had joined the Army unwillingly, and there was no reason why they should find military service tolerable.” U.S. Brigadier General “Slam” Marshall, a First World War veteran and the chief combat historian of the U.S. Army in the Second World War conducted hundreds of post-combat small group sessions with U.S. troops in the Pacific and Europe, and documented his findings in his book, Men Against Fire: the Problem of Battle Command. One of Marshall’s most startling and controversial findings was that only about 15% of U.S. troops in combat actually fired their weapons at the enemy. In no case did that ever rise above 25%, even when failing to fire placed the soldiers’ own lives in greater danger. Marshall concluded that most human beings have a natural aversion to killing other human beings, often reinforced by our upbringing and religious beliefs, and that turning civilians into effective combat soldiers therefore requires training and indoctrination expressly designed to override our natural respect for fellow human life. This dichotomy between human nature and killing in war is now understood to lie at the root of much of the PTSD suffered by combat veterans. Marshall’s conclusions were incorporated into U.S. military training, with the introduction of firing range targets that looked like enemy soldiers and deliberate indoctrination to dehumanize the enemy in soldiers’ minds. When he conducted similar research in the Korean War, Marshall found that changes in infantry training based on his work in World War II had already led to higher firing ratios. That trend continued in Vietnam and more recent U.S. wars. Part of the shocking brutality of the U.S. hostile military occupation of Iraq stemmed directly from the dehumanizing indoctrination of the U.S. occupation forces, which included falsely linking Iraq to the September 11th terrorist crimes in the U.S. and labeling Iraqis who resisted the U.S. invasion and occupation of their country as “terrorists.' A Zogby poll of U.S. forces in Iraq in February 2006 found that 85% of U.S. troops believed their mission was to 'retaliate for Saddam’s role in the 9/11 attacks,' and 77% believed that the primary reason for the war was to 'stop Saddam from protecting Al Qaeda in Iraq.” This was all pure fiction, cut from whole cloth by propagandists in Washington, and yet, three years into the U.S. occupation, the Pentagon was still misleading U.S. troops to falsely link Iraq with 9/11'. 'The response of the U.S. political class to the blowback from its catastrophic wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was simply to avoid large deployments of U.S. ground forces or “boots on the ground.” They instead embraced the use of devastating bombing and artillery campaigns in Afghanistan, Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria, and wars fought by proxies, with full, “ironclad” U.S. support, in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and now Ukraine and Palestine. The absence of large numbers of U.S. casualties in these wars kept them off the front pages back home and avoided the kind of political blowback generated by the wars in Vietnam and Iraq. The lack of media coverage and public debate meant that most Americans knew very little about these more recent wars, until the shocking atrocity of the genocide in Gaza finally started to crack the wall of silence and indifference. The results of these U.S. proxy wars are, predictably, no less catastrophic than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. domestic political impacts have been mitigated, but the real-world impacts in the countries and regions involved are as deadly, destructive and destabilizing as ever, undermining U.S. “soft power' and pretensions to global leadership in the eyes of much of the world. In fact, these policies have widened the yawning gulf between the worldview of ill-informed Americans who cling to the view of their country as a country at peace and a force for good in the world, and people in other countries, especially in the Global South, who are ever more outraged by the violence, chaos and poverty caused by the aggressive projection of U.S. military and economic power, whether by U.S. wars, proxy wars, bombing campaigns, coups or economic sanctions'. As Israeli and Ukrainian leaders see their political support crumbling, Netanyahu and Zelenskyy are taking increasingly desperate risks, all the while insisting that the U.S. must come to their rescue. By “leading from behind,' our leaders have surrendered the initiative to these foreign leaders, who will keep pushing the United States to make good on its promises of unconditional support, which will sooner or later include sending young American troops to kill and die alongside their own. (Source: counterpunch)
by Davies, an independent journalist, the author of Blood on Our Hands: The American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq, and War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict, co-authored with Benjamin.

Globalization

6 Sep 2024 at 12:20  Over the past 12 months, the global average temperature was 1.64°C higher than pre-industrial levels, above the 1.5°C threshold that policymakers and scientists say threatens life on the planet. The European Union's (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that for June to August, global temperatures were 0.69 degrees Celsius above historical averages, beating the previous high set last year. The record for the world's highest average temperature was broken on a number of days over the summer. In Europe, the heat over the June to August period was 1.54°C above the 1991-2020 average, according to Copernicus. The most extreme conditions were recorded in the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe, while the United Kingdom, Iceland, parts of Ireland, the west coast of Portugal and southern Norway were cooler than the norm. And parts of the Southern Hemisphere just had a very mild winter, with Australia experiencing the hottest August since data started in 1910 and looking forward to a warmer-than-average spring. This summer the effects of a strong El Niño weather pattern, which causes warming in the Pacific Ocean, started giving way to the La Niña phenomenon. This shift usually means less extreme heat, but it can also bring droughts in some areas and produces flooding and hurricanes elsewhere. (Source: bangkokpost)