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Europe
Germany
November 6, 2024 9:01 pm CET Renewed political instability came in Germany just hours after Trump’s clear win in the U.S. election, a result that stunned German political leaders, ’who depend on American military might for their country’s defense’ and fear Trump’s tariff policies will hobble German industry. Germany’s chancellor Scholz sets stage for German snap election as three-party ruling coalition government collapsed today evening. He said a confidence vote will first take place on Jan. 15 after announcing he will fire his finance minister Lindner over persistent disagreements over persistent rifts on spending and economic reforms, a move that paves the way for a snap election. If, as is likely, Scholz loses that vote, a snap election is set to take place by March. Lindner and his FDP insisted that the German government stick to strict spending rules and cut taxes, even as his left-wing coalition partners wanted to maintain social spending and boost German industry through economic stimulus. “All too often, Minister Lindner has blocked laws in an inappropriate manner,’ said Scholz in a statement. “Too often he has engaged in petty party-political tactics. Too often he has broken my trust.” Scholz said he had asked Linder to ease spending rules to allow more Ukraine aid, but Lindner refused, saying such a move would have “violated my oath of office.” Linder also attacked Scholz’s response to Germany’s economic weakness. “ Scholz has long failed to recognise the need for a new economic awakening in our country,” said Lindner in a statement. “He has long played down the economic concerns of our citizens.” Central to the current coalition disagreements was the adoption of the 2025 budget by parliament - in which a gap of at least €2.4 billion, and potentially far more, needs to be filled - as well as an agreement on measures to revamp the country’s ailing economy. Crisis talks in the coalition came to a head after Lindner issued a policy paper with demands for liberal economic reforms that were difficult for the other two parties to accept, calling for tax cuts and a scaling back of climate policies in order to stimulate economic growth - both positions that put the party at odds with its coalition partners. The firing effectively ejects Lindner’s fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) from the troubled coalition. It is now polling at only 4 percent — below the threshold needed to make it into the German parliament - meaning its leaders have been mulling a coalition break in order to save their political futures. By firing Lindner, Scholz appeared to be beating the FDP to the punch. A snap election would likely usher in a new government led by the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which currently leads in polls by a wide margin. CDU leaders have taken a ’sharp’ turn to the right on migration in recent years, while also advocating for ’more robust military aid for Ukraine’. Trump’s victory ’is expected to put heavy pressure on Europe’s largest economy. An analysis from the German Economic Institute (IW) estimates that a new trade war could cost Germany €180 billion over Trump’s four years in office’. Ultimately, however, not even the looming threat of Trump proved enough for the fractious parties to put aside their differences. ’Downright tragic on a day like this, when Germany has to show unity and the ability to act in Europe.” Habeck, the Green economy minister said. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
by von der Burchard, Nöstlinger and Buchsteiner
Russia
6 Nov, 2024 09:28 am Russia denies interference. Russia’s embassy in the US has denied accusations that Moscow has interfered in the US election after authorities said hoax bomb threats to polling stations appeared to originate in Russia, CNN has reported. The Russian embassy in Washington said the US accusations were “slanderous and baseless.” 'All insinuations about ‘Russian machinations’ are malicious slander, invented for use in the domestic political struggle of the United States,' the embassy said as reported by state-run RIA Novosti news agency. (Source: The New Zealand Herald)
United Kingdom
November 6, 2024 8:44 am CET Johnson was removed from Channel 4’s U.S. election night program 'for promoting his book too much". Former prime minister, providing analysis for the British broadcaster, repeatedly held up his recently published memoir 'Unleashed' and dropped references to it, despite being told off by the hosts for doing so slammed as ‘so cheap’ on Channel 4. As prime minister, Johnson allied himself with Republican nominee Trump, and has met him at least twice since leaving power to discuss the war in Ukraine, Johnson said he’d spoken to Trump 'quite recently.' However, Johnson dismissed accusations he modeled himself on Trump as 'complete and utter tripe.' (Source: Politico - U.S.)
North America
3:39 PM CET, November 6, 2024 Republican presidential nominee former President Trump has won the 2024 presidential election. Trump scored a decisive victory in a deeply divided nation. He exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base. Trump beat back concerns about his moral failings, becoming the first U.S. president with a felony conviction. He won with bold promises that his fiery brand of America-first economic populism and conservative culture would make their lives better. There are reasons to believe his plans for mass deportations and huge tariffs ’may hurt the very people who enabled his victory’. He is set to enter the White House on Jan. 20, 2025. Trump made significant gains. His focus on immigration, economy and culture worked. Trump's support among Black voters, Latinos and young voters appeared to rise slightly compared to 2020. Collectively, those small gains yielded an outsize outcome. Slightly more than 4 in 10 young voters went for Trump, up from about one-third in 2020. His victory may have had as much to do with the fundamental challenges Harris faced all along. Trump ultimately won over voters with grand promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants on the Southern border and his call to “make America great again.” Relentless repetition convinced voters. Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest issue factoring into their election decisions, about as many said that of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump is threatening to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other American adversaries, which economists warn could dramatically boost prices for average Americans. He also appealed to religious voters in both parties by seizing on the Democrats’ support for the transgender community. The results left Democrats facing with no obvious leader to unite the anti-Trump coalition and no clear plan to rebuild. Black voters - men and women - have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party. In recent years, Latinos and young voters have joined them. All three groups still preferred Democrat Harris. About 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. About half voters under age 30 supported Harris. Black and Latino voters appeared slightly less likely to support her. Facing deep voter frustration over the direction of the country - with Biden’s approval rating dismal - she never did distance herself from her party’s sitting president. About two-thirds of Harris voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their votes. Harris, by the end of the campaign, joined other critics describing the former president and now president-elect as a ’fascist.’ Slightly more than half of voters said Harris has the moral character to be president. It was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended a woman’s national right to terminate a pregnancy. About half of women backed Harris. Just a few months ago, Harris generated incredible excitement across the party. She filled arenas. She raised more than a billion dollars seemingly overnight. The results shrink Democrats’ geographic footprint. Now Democrats are left to wonder how to reconnect with parts of the country and slices of the electorate that rejected them. Trump already succeeded in painting Democrats as out-of-touch culturally with middle America. Though Trump has now been the central figure in American politics for nine years, he convinced voters he represented change. On the promise of the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history, Trump has not explained how such an operation would work. About a third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their votes. He was repeatedly promising retribution to his political enemies. Trump refused to acknowledge his 2020 defeat. He labeled Harris a fascist and a communist. Trump’s criminal convictions, additional pending indictments and his most incendiary rhetoric were not a sufficient concern to keep tens of millions of Americans from voting for him. About 4 in 10 voters said that Trump has the moral character to be president. It’s quite possible, as Trump has said many times on the campaign trail, that his legal peril actually helped him. As it stands, Trump may never actually face sentencing in a New York business fraud case in which he was convicted of 34 felonies. For now, his sentencing is scheduled for later this month. He’s already had one federal indictment in Florida dismissed, sparing him from a trial on whether he flouted U.S. law on protecting national security secrets. And he’s made clear he would use his power as president to spike the federal case against him for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. That would leave a Georgia racketeering case pending against Trump and others accused of trying to subvert the 2020 election result. It was the first time that a Republican presidential candidate overly courted males with a hypermasculine approach. About half of men went for Trump. Republicans have claimed control of the Senate. The results will give Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress. Their hope is to win a House majority built mostly through key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from certain early today. (Source: Associated Press)
By Barrow
United States
6 Nov 2024 In Michigan, voters punished Harris for Middle East crisis. /Video/ (Source: Youtube / France 24)
Note: 1 583 views
Nov 6, 2024, 10:38 AM Former President Trump secured the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House: The Hill. The former president won a convincing victory, flipping Georgia back into his column, holding North Carolina and shattering the 'blue wall.' The former president and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), capitalized on voter discontent with higher costs, a surge in migration at the southern border and instability abroad during the Biden administration to pitch voters on a return to his policies. (Source: Mehr - Iran)
6 Nov 2024 Abortion rights on the ballot in ten states and motivating voters across the US. Voters are deciding whether their state constitutions should guarantee a right to abortion, weighing ballot measures that are expected to spur turnout for a range of crucial races. Passing certain amendments in Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota likely would lead to undoing bans or restrictions that currently block varying levels of abortion access. The future legality and availability of abortion hinges not only on ballot measures, as policies could shift depending on who controls Congress and the presidency. (Source: France 24)
6 Nov 2024. Trump has won the battleground state of Georgia, the onetime Republican stronghold that had voted for Democrats four years ago. With his earlier win in North Carolina, Trump narrowed Harris’ pathways to victory and expanded his routes to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next president. /Video/ (Source: Youtube / France 24)
Note: 547 views
"Just now" (6 November 2024 10:14 CET) Trump has declared victory over Harris in the US presidential election as he stands on the cusp of a historic White House political comeback. The Republican told his ecstatic supporters at a campaign party in Florida that they would usher in “a new golden age for America”. The BBC's US partner CBS projects Trump has vaulted to a commanding lead in the seven battleground states that will decide the winner of the election. Trump is projected to win the key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. CBS says Wisconsin is leaning towards Trump and he is ahead in the other so-called Rust Belt state of Michigan. The results are not final. He also has a lead in Nevada, while the race remains tight in the other sun belt battleground of Arizona. As expected, Trump has swept conservative strongholds from Florida to Idaho, while Harris won liberal states from New York to California, CBS projects. He would be the first former president to return to the White House in more than 130 years. The Democrat had been expected to address a crowd on election night at Howard University in Washington DC, where she was an undergraduate, but it emerged after midnight that she would not appear. Following the announcement by campaign co-chairman Richmond, the crowd all but disappeared from Harris HQ at the historically black college. CBS exit poll data suggests Vice-President Harris – who was hoping to become America’s first woman president and campaigned heavily for abortion rights - may have under-performed with women. Some 54% of female voters cast their ballots for her. In more good news for Trump, his party is projected to win majority control of the Senate. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
by "Sheerin"
6 Nov, 2024 08:50 AM Trump, 78, has claimed a comprehensive victory over Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.and promises to return to the White House to deliver “the golden age of America”. Trump has won North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania and looks likely to make a clean sweep of all the vital swing states. Fox News has called the election for Trump, while CNN says he is 'poised to clinch' victory. Trump declared himself the 47th President in a speech to party faithful at an event at West Palm Beach in Florida, flanked by wife Melania and son Barron. “I want to tell you what a great honour this is … America’s future will be bigger, bolder than it ever has been before, Trump said, in his victory speech on stage at his home base of Mar-a-Lago. "We're going to try to unite ... success will bring us together. I saw that in the first term." “We had a great first term… I have a simple moto: Promises made, promises kept". “This is the most important job in the world". “I’ll never do a rally again, can you believe it?” Trump said, estimating he’d done 900 of them. “I will not rest until we have delivered the strong safe and prosperous America that we deserve”. He also addressed the July assassination attempt, telling supporters: “God spared my life for a reason, and that reason was to save this country.” “We are the party of common sense,” Trump said. “We had everybody and it was beautiful,” Trump said of all the different groups and ethnicities that came together to support him. "We're going to help our country heal... we made history for a reason tonight," Trump says on stage for his victory speech at Mar-a-Lago. “Every citizen, I will fight for you … with every breath in my body. I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that we deserve. „I want to thank my beautiful wife Melania, first lady, who has the number one best-selling book in the country.” "She works very hard to help people." "I want to thank my amazing children." “Winning the popular vote was very nice I tell ya. A feeling of love with unbelievable people beside me… they’ve made the journey with me,” he says. Trump has thanked his running mate Vance and praised him as a “feisty guy”. “He goes in and absolutely obliterates” the media companies Trump says he has sent him to talk to. Vance, speaking, was describing Trump’s win as the greatest political comeback in American history. "He's turned out to be a good choice," Trump says of Vance. "I took a little heat initially", but he has a "good brain", Trump was paying tribute to his friend and the boss of the UFC, White. And Trump pays tribute to Musk who endorsed him. “A star is born: Elon. He’s an amazing guy. We spent two weeks in Pennsylvania campaigning,” Trump said “He sent that rocket up. When it left, it was beautiful.” Trump is describing the catch-landing of Musk’s Space X rocket - not on the ground but caught by a launch tower. “This spaceship came down… it looked like it was over, the fire was coming out from the right side. And it came down so gently, those arms like holding a baby,” Trump said. Trump asked who else could land a rocket, and said Musk confirmed Russia or no one else could. “He’s a super genius, we have to protect them, we don’t have that many.” 'That's why I love you, Elon.' “These are hard-working people,” Trump said of his team and supporters. He thanked Kennedy Jr., who ran as an independent candidate before pulling out and supporting him. Trump said Kennedy was going to help “make America healthy again". Kennedy is a vocal opponent of vaccination. Trump on immigration: “We’re going to seal up those borders,” he said. “They [immigrants] have to come in legally.” Trump says he hopes his supporters will view voting for him as one of the great moments of their life. He is projecting he will win 315 electoral votes. World leaders have already congratulated Trump on his victory in the US presidential election: Australia: PM Albanese; France: President Macron; Israel: PM Netanyahu; New Zealand: PM Luxon; Ukraine: President Zelenskyy; United Kingdom: PM Starmer. (08:58 am): Fox News says it has no evidence there has been a phone call from Harris to Trump to concede the election. (Source: The New Zealand Herald)
6 November 2024 8:47 CET) ("27 minutes ago"): Trump: "A political victory our country has never seen before. Watch Trump address his jubilant supporters as he claims victory in the US presidential election. /Video/ (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
November 6, 2024, Wednesday // 09:04 ("59 minutes ago"): Trump defeats Harris in 2024 election, "Fox News projected Trump as the victor over Harris". In the end, the campaign pitted two markedly different visions for America’s future, with Harris and the Democrats casting Trump as a threat to democratic principles, while Trump maintained that he was best positioned to rectify perceived wrongs. His hard-hitting slogan, "Harris broke it, Trump will fix it," encapsulated his campaign’s message. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)
2024-11-06 08:41 Trump has claimed victory in the 2024 US presidential election, declaring himself the 47th president after securing 267 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. With key battleground states such as Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin still in play, Trump’s lead continues to grow. As of now, he holds a commanding 64.7 million votes (51.2%) in the popular vote, while Harris has garnered 59.9 million votes (47.4%). Republicans are also poised to secure both chambers of Congress, strengthening the prospects for Trump’s legislative agenda. (Source: Shafaq News)
06/11/2024 - 7:22 'The Democratic candidate has won the New York race and secured the state’s 28 Electoral College votes'. The Associated Press declared Harris the winner at 3:00 am CET. /Video/ (Source: Euronews - Headquartered in Lyon, France)
(Wednesday), Nov 6, 2024 12:41 IST Republican candidate Trump inches closer to victory against Democrat Harris. He has already won three of the seven swing states. Trump is heading to the Florida Convention Centre and will address his supporters. He will be visiting Palm Beach shortly after he cemented his victory in North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, four of the seven swing states that more or less sealed the victory for him in the US Presidential elections. Trump was spotted at Mar-a-Lago resort with Musk, White. Vice President was cancelling her speech at her ’lama mater’, Howard University. She was scheduled to speak at the university on Tuesday night, but will now speak tomorrow, said Harris campaign co-chair Richmond. The mood of the faculty and the students at the university became sombre as Trump's numbers continued to swell on Tuesday. According to the latest trends, Trump is leading the race with 248 electoral votes compared to Harris's 214. (Source: India Today)
Globalization
6th November 2024 Calling it a Trump victory, boost for bitcoin. Bitcoin has reacted swiftly to the results of the U.S. presidential election, with Trump clinching victory and reclaiming the Oval Office. Trump’s stance on Bitcoin has been a supportive one, and the crypto community is celebrating his win as a potential positive for digital assets. The price of Bitcoin touched a record $75,000, marking a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency that has spent much of the year trading below $70,000. As of today morning, the price of Bitcoin touched a record peak, trading at $74,392, up 7% after an overnight surge. The reaction is emblematic of how Bitcoin and financial markets often respond to major political events, with Bitcoin’s price volatility influenced by investor sentiment around potential policy changes. Bitcoin’s recent price rally is consistent with the cryptocurrency’s performance in past election years. In 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin saw returns of approximately 87%, 44%, and 145% in the 90 days following Election Day, respectively. These surges are not coincidental; election years often align with Bitcoin’s halving cycle - a process that reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, effectively lowering the supply and increasing scarcity. The post-election surges in Bitcoin have also tended to coincide with shifts in Federal Reserve policy. With a newly elected government, investors often expect changes in monetary policy direction. The Bitcoin community has long had a favourable view of Trump due to his relatively open stance on decentralised finance (DeFi) and cryptocurrencies. He’s generally been less restrictive than other politicians. During his previous term, Trump showed a willingness to reduce regulatory constraints on the financial sector, a sentiment that extended to crypto. Now, the likelihood of regulatory clarity—without harsh restrictions - is seen as beneficial for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. In addition, with Republicans in control of the Senate, a more conservative fiscal policy could encourage the preservation of wealth in alternative assets like Bitcoin, especially given the growing concerns around the U.S. dollar. The U.S. government deficit has been a major concern for both parties, with the deficit rising 8% in the 2024 fiscal year to $1.8 trillion. Further tax cuts promised by Trump during his campaign could add to this deficit, potentially weakening the dollar over time. For many, Bitcoin is a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, as it operates outside of traditional monetary policy constraints, and investors seek alternatives to the dollar. In the current scenario, market participants are eyeing the potential for further interest rate cuts from the Fed, which could further fuel Bitcoin’s appeal. Lower interest rates generally weaken the dollar. The Fed’s approach to interest rates will be a crucial factor in Bitcoin’s future performance. As inflation concerns continue, the Fed has signalled that it may be inclined to ease rates further but is moving cautiously to avoid making any policy errors. Market players widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut in the near future. Reduced interest rates decrease the appeal of traditional savings, driving investors toward high-growth assets like Bitcoin. With its fixed supply and decentralized nature, Bitcoin fits this requirement well, and a dovish Fed only amplifies its attractiveness as a hedge. China’s economic health plays a critical role in markets, including Bitcoin. Recently, China’s services sector recorded its fastest growth in three months, with the Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index rising to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September - a positive indicator for global demand. Any positive signals from China’s economy often spill over into global markets, indirectly supporting risk assets. Oil prices have shown a slight dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump’s victory. OPEC+ recently delayed plans to increase production, reflecting concerns over weak demand and growing supply from non-OPEC sources. Libya’s resumed production has added supply, balancing out some of the cuts from OPEC members like Iraq. In addition, Iran has announced plans to increase its oil output by 250,000 barrels per day. Market dynamics, especially related to OPEC+ production decisions and the stability in the Middle East, will influence oil prices in the short term. The combination of Trump’s election win and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties creates a complex backdrop for oil prices. Trump’s stance on energy independence may favour U.S. oil producers, potentially leading to higher production domestically. (Source: Financial Mirror – Cyprus)
by Aslam, Chief Investment Officer - Zaye Capital Markets.
.4 11 6 09:38
