Egyik 19

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Europe

Russia
November 20, 2024 10:42 AM GMT+1  Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion. In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines. There may be room for negotiation over the precise carve-up of the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. While Moscow claims the four regions as wholly part of Russia, defended by the country's nuclear umbrella, its forces on the ground control 70-80% of the territory with about 26,000 square km still held by Ukrainian troops, open-source data on the front line shows. Russia may also be open to withdrawing from the relatively small patches of territory it holds in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions. Putin said this month that any ceasefire deal should reflect the "realities" on the ground but that he feared a short-lived truce which would only allow the West to rearm Ukraine. "If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine," Putin told the Valdai discussion group on Nov. 7. "Why? Because this would mean that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation." Outgoing U.S. President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American ATACMS missiles deep into Russia could complicate and delay any settlement - and stiffen Moscow's demands as hardliners push for a bigger chunk of Ukraine. Yesterday, Kyiv used the missiles to strike Russian territory, according to Moscow which decried the move as a major escalation. If no ceasefire is agreed, then Russia will fight on. "Putin has already said that freezing the conflict will not work in any way," Kremlin spokesman Peskov told Reuters hours before the Russians reported the ATACMS strikes. "And the missile authorisation is a very dangerous escalation on the part of the United States." "He is the only person who can bring both sides together in order to negotiate peace, and work towards ending the war and stopping the killing,” Trump's communications director Cheung told about the incoming U.S. president. Real estate billionaire Trump, author of the 1987 book "Trump: the Art of the Deal", has said he would speak directly to Putin in his efforts to forge a peace deal. Zelenskiy has said his country will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory - based on the borders it gained after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union - though top U.S. generals have said publicly that this is a very ambitious aim. On June 14, Putin set out his opening terms for an immediate end to the war: Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from the entirety of the territory of four regions claimed and mostly controlled by Russia. While Russia will not tolerate Ukraine joining NATO, or the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, it is open to discussing security guarantees for Kyiv. Other Ukrainian concessions the Kremlin could push for include Kyiv agreeing to limit the size of its armed forces and committing not to restrict the use of the Russian language. Simes, who emigrated to the United States from the Soviet Union in 1973 and is one of Russia's best-connected experts on America, said a ceasefire agreement could be struck relatively swiftly to end the war. But a wider, lasting deal that addressed both Ukraine and Russia's security concerns would be extremely challenging to forge, as the positions of the two sides are very far apart, he added. Russia controls 18% of Ukraine including all of Crimea, 80% of the Donbas and more than 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.It also holds just under 3% of the Kharkiv region and a sliver of Mykolaiv. In total, Russia has over 110,000 square km of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine holds about 650 square km of Russia's Kursk region. Domestically, Putin could sell a ceasefire deal that saw Russia hold onto most of the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as a victory that ensured the defence of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine and safeguarded the landbridge to Crimea. The future of Crimea itself is not up for discussion. One of the officials, a senior source with knowledge of top-level Kremlin discussions, said the West would have to accept the "harsh truth" that all the support it had given Ukraine could not prevent Russia from winning the war. Putin, a former KGB lieutenant colonel who watched the Soviet Union crumble while stationed in Dresden, took the decision to invade Ukraine himself with only limited counsel from a tiny group of trusted advisers. He will likewise have the deciding voice on any ceasefire. The Kremlin chief presents what he calls the "special military operation" in Ukraine as a watershed moment when Moscow finally stood up to what he sees as the arrogance of the West which enlarged NATO eastwards towards Russia's borders and meddled in the politics of what Moscow considers as its own backyard, including Georgia and, crucially, Ukraine. When asked what a possible ceasefire might look like, two of the Russian sources referred to a draft agreement that was almost approved in April 2022 after talks in Istanbul, and which Putin has referred to in public as a possible basis for a deal. Under that draft, Ukraine should agree to permanent neutrality in return for international security guarantees from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. One of the Russian officials said there would be no agreement unless Ukraine received security guarantees, adding: "The question is how to avoid a deal that locks the West into a possible direct confrontation with Russia one day." (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
by Faulconbridge, Moscow bureau chief

Ukraine
20 November 2024 ((22:15))  Ukraine has fired UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia. Kyiv was previously restricted to using the long-range missiles within its own borders. Storm Shadow is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of around 250km. The French call it Scalp. It is considered an ideal weapon for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores, such as those used by Russia in its war against Ukraine. It is launched from aircraft then flies at close to the speed of sound, hugging the terrain, before dropping down and detonating its high explosive warhead. The US and UK had previously not given permission, with suggestions this was related to not wanting to escalate the war. The government has refused to comment on the reports but officials confirmed Defence Secretary Healey spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart yesterday night. Ukraine's Defence Minister Umerov has also declined to confirm that his country has used the Storm Shadow missiles within Russian territory, but said it was ’using all the means' to defend the country. Miller, the US State Department’s spokesman, would also not comment on the use of the UK-supplied missile or whether the US was providing navigational assistance for their use. The US has approved sending landmines to Ukraine, too, in an attempt to slow down Russian troops. BBC Verify showed images on Telegram claiming to show fragments of a Storm Shadow missile in Kursk to weapons expert Kotlarski, Weapons Team manager at Janes, who said: ’We can confirm that the large, rectangular piece of debris, featuring a hole in the centre, does indeed match part of the mounting interface of the Storm Shadow / SCALP EG missile.’ (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

November 20, 2024, Wednesday // 10:07  The war in Ukraine could have ended in 2022 following the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv, but Western partners prevented such an outcome, according to Yaroslavsky, commander of an intelligence division in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Speaking on "Kyiv24," he stated that Ukraine's forces had the potential to bring the conflict to a conclusion. "This counteroffensive could have ended the war, but our partners did not allow us to do it because of their principles. At that time, we did not advance into the Belgorod region, and the war continues to this day. I am convinced it could have ended in 2022," Yaroslavsky said. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

20 Nov, 2024 09:30 AM  The US embassy in Kyiv warned today of a “potential significant air attack” and shuttered its doors, following Russia’s vow to respond after Ukraine fired longer-range US missiles at its territory. (Source: The New Zealand Herald / AFP - France)

Asia

Lebanon
20.11.2024  At least 13 people were killed in overnight airstrikes staged by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon. Fighter jets struck a home in Maarakeh town, killing two people. Two airstrikes in Kfar Melki and Zefta towns left at least four people dead. Three more people lost their lives in another attack in Ain Qana and four others in the village of Habbouch. Airstrikes and artillery shelling were also reported in Dibbine, Kafr Rumman Rihan, Shebaa, Ghandouriyeh, and Kafr Tebnit. The state news agency NNA said that the Israeli army was trying to advance into Kafrchouba hills in southern Lebanon amid fierce clashes with Hezbollah fighters. Yesterday Hezbollah carried out at least 34 attacks against Israeli targets in southern Lebanon and northern Israel. More than 3,500 people have been killed by Israeli attacks in Lebanon, with nearly 15,000 injured and more than a million displaced since last October, according to Lebanese health authorities. The US, Israel’s main ally, is mediating between Tel Aviv and Beirut to reach a cease-fire deal between Hezbollah and Israel. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Saudi Arabia
Wednesday, November 20, 2024  Tehran and Riyadh have reaffirmed their commitment to the China-brokered deal and to further consolidation of relations during a meeting of the Saudi-Chinese-Iranian Joint Tripartite Committee, held yesterday in Riyadh. The three countries called for an immediate end to the Israeli campaign of death and destruction in Palestine and Lebanon, condemning its attacks and violations of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. They further called for the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid and relief to Palestine and Lebanon, warning that the continuing cycle of violence and escalation is a serious threat to the security of the region and the world. The three countries reiterated their support for a comprehensive political solution in Yemen in line with internationally recognized principles under the auspices of the United Nations. (Source: Iran Front Page - Iran)

Turkey
November 20, 2024  Turkey, Greece and Trump. Insiders in Ankara point to the historically good relationship between Trump and Erdogan. The possibility that Trump’s election signals an end to American support for the Ukrainian war effort, president-elect’s desire to find a settlement to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict makes the hope that Turkey’s participation is essential. A closer cooperation with the United States on Ukraine could deliver breakthroughs on issues such as Turkey’s eviction from the F-35 program. And a United States more focused on competition with China could lead to greater American investment in Turkey and greater bilateral trade. Television moderators have even mused that Washington may be enticed into halting military assistance to Greece on the backs of improved Turkish-American relations. Trump’s second coming, by and large, is not seen as a welcome relief when it comes to issues that matter most to the country’s commentariat. It is hard to see how Ankara and Washington will see eye to eye when it comes to the situation in the Levant. Israel’s dual campaign in Gaza and Lebanon has enflamed Turkish public opinion and united the country’s leadership in anger. Both Erdogan’s supporters and antagonists see the establishment of a new Republican administration as a critical turn for the worse for Palestinians. There is a general agreement that the new American president is more likely to aid, than hinder, ongoing military Israeli operations. Trump’s election has only elevated the likelihood that Israel would play its euphemistic Kurdish card - the possibility that Israel would utilize Kurdish militants as proxies bent upon undermining Turkey from within. The solution, some have proposed, is to go on the offensive in Syria. ’Turkey is determined to clear the Syrian border of the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party],” one insider recently declared. 'It has been decided to control our borders to a depth of 30-40 kilometers. Both military and diplomatic pillars of this are being formed. What the Mexican border is for Trump, so is the Syrian border for Erdogan.’ Turkish faith in Trump’s willingness to go along with this plan, however, is generally modest. With the announced appointment of Waltz as Trump’s national security advisor, analysts have underscored the congressman’s past support for American joint operations with Kurdish forces in Syria. Offsetting the anxiety is a genuine satisfaction with the prospects facing the United States as a global power. The true significance of Trump’s victory, many appear to agree, is that the United States appears visibly weaker. Talk of the United States descending into chaos continues despite Trump’s victory. More specific hopes expressed are that the new administration would lead Washington to conduct a campaign to destroy ’the American deep state,” which critics pose is ’alternatively made up of military officers, Democrats, and Jews, that was the force that prevented Trump from fulfilling his promise to Turkey to withdraw American troops from Syria’. Trump’s ascendency, many agree, makes conflict with China more likely. In such an armed contest, commentators tend to agree that Beijing is the most likely to succeed. The sum result of such a scenario, as one columnist recently argued, would constitute the 'death announcement of the American Empire.” Trump’s return to power, as many see it, will weaken Washington and help speed the demise of the West as a global force. It is unclear how far these opinions reflect the views of Erdogan and his advisors. There were far fewer visible signs of apprehension or worry on the night of Trump’s victory. You will find little sorrow or remorse when it comes to Vice President Harris’ electoral defeat. In congratulating his “friend” on his triumph, Erdogan expressed his belief that Turkish-American relations would improve and that “regional and global crises and wars, especially the Palestinian issue and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end.” Many Turks see conditions getting worse in their region in the months ahead. Turkey and Greece continue to carry forward their mutual commitment to improving ties with one another, mutual respect and understanding. Where talks lead to in the future remains up the air. High-level discussions are planned for December and the new year. Speaking among domestic audiences, both sides do not appear willing to compromise on much. In both Ankara and Athens, critics have portrayed talks „as pre-emptive steps towards forfeiture of territory or sovereign rights’. Should talks break down, both Greece and Turkey may be left with a United States more distracted by affairs in Asia. Even more likely is the prospect that neither state fully trusts Washington with providing mediation on issues that separate the two capitals.    In Europe, discussions appear to have already attained a frenetic pitch. Brussels and other capitals visibly fret over the possibility that the United States may withdraw its support for Ukraine or perhaps leave NATO altogether. Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister was among the first European leaders to congratulate Trump on his success, declaring his desire to deepen “the strategic partnership between our two countries.” Editors in Athens see a distinct possibility that Greek-American relations may in fact improve in the coming months and years ahead. Increased pressure from Washington on Europe’s largest and wealthier countries likely may lead smaller nations, like Greece, to seek stronger bilateral relations with the United States. A weakening European consensus not only would undermine calls for greater “strategic autonomy” among E.U. states, but place the region’s pursuit of economic growth and energy independence at risk. Optimists tend to agree that the country’s large merchant fleet could serve as a conduit for American natural gas producers seeking to ship to transatlantic customers. Greece’s Defense Ministry, together with government development agencies, could find greater avenues of cooperation with the United States. A number of factors are aiding Athens, such as the good relationship supposedly shared by Mitsotakis, Trump, and their spouses and the appointment of Rubio, with pro-Greek attitudes. There are pro-Greek sentiments found in Congress. Greek commentators have lamented the potential growth of populists in Europe, a phenomenon that potentially could jeopardize Mitsotakis’ hold on power. (Source: War on the Rocks - U.S.)
"Note: The views expressed are not those of the Naval Postgraduate School, the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government”.
by Gingeras, a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, an expert on Turkish, Balkan, and Middle East history, author of seven books.

.4 11 24 00:04

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 Asia

Turkey
Nov 20, 2024, 8:00 AM  Turkish President Erdogan has commented on Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine. "Certainly, I think that this statement by Russia is, above all, a measure taken in response to the stance taken against it concerning the use of conventional weapons. I think that this issue must be considered by NATO officials. Russia has the right and ability to protect itself and to take measures for its defense. And it was compelled to take these measures. Much like we, NATO countries, must protect ourselves and take steps to do so," Erdogan said at a press conference following the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The Turkish president also reiterated that both Russia and Ukraine are Turkey’s neighbors. "At this stage, we must protect our bilateral ties with them. I hope that we will achieve a definitive ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia as soon as possible and ensure the peace the planet has been eagerly awaiting," Erdogan added. Kremlin Spokesman Peskov said that the revised nuclear doctrine provides for a nuclear response if Ukraine uses Western non-nuclear missiles against Russia. Earlier, the Kremlin official emphasized that the West’s decision to use long-range missiles marked 'a qualitatively new phase' of tensions. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran

Red Sea

Nov 20, 2024  Yesterday, a significant strike was launched by the Yemeni Ansarullah Coalition, known as the Houthis, against the Turkish 183-meter Anadolu S cargo vessel. With regional tensions continuing to rise, and the Houthis showing no signs of halting their attacks on Israeli-linked vessels, the situation in the Red Sea remains fraught with uncertainty. (Source: BulgarianMilitary)

North America

United States
November 20, 2024  "It doesn’t matter how many long-range missiles we give to Ukraine. Those alone will not change any dynamic on the battlefield - any more than the previous entry of Western tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces, air defense weapons, HIMARS systems, or even the vaunted F16s. The war is lost for Kyiv. Period. Continuing to ignore reality - and listen to generals is certain to increase the ultimate cost of losing the war for Ukraine. What Biden is doing now, however, is worse. He is risking an expansion of the war, potentially drawing the United States into direct conflict with Russia. Russia has been unambiguous in its declarations that the introduction of U.S. or Western long-range missiles into the war against Russia would represent the direct engagement of the West against Russia and force a 'response.' According to news reports, such attacks have now been made, and that could be the reason the United States evacuated its embassy this morning, fearing Russia may act on its threat. It is foolhardy to the highest order to risk the expansion of the war by allowing our long-range weapons to be used against Russia, especially because there is no military upside for doing so. Rather, it constitutes a major strategic risk of getting sucked into a war. Trump was, in part, elected by the American people because he vowed to end the war in Ukraine. By taking this pointless risk two months before the end of his term, Biden could wreck any chance Trump might have to achieve peace. Biden’s staunchest supporters should urgently call for him to stop this inflammatory drive before it's too late. The security of our country should be the priority for all Americans." (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Davis, the Senior Fellow & Military Expert for Defense Priorities, a retired Army Lt.Col.

20 November 2024  The US has been criticised by humanitarian organisations for deciding to supply Ukraine with landmines. The approval from Washington is an attempt to slow down Russian troops, who have been steadily advancing into Ukraine's east in recent months. US Defence Secretary Austin said they made their decision because of how Russia had changed its tactics on the battlefield - sending in troops first rather than mechanised forces. The International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) condemned the US decision "in the strongest possible terms". 'These horrific, indiscriminate weapons were banned by the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty given the devastating impact they have on civilians' lives and livelihoods,' the statement from the ICBL's director, Gabelnick, said. Under the treaty, "there are no circumstances under which Ukraine as a state party may acquire, stockpile or use them", she added. The use of landmines is not illegal under international law, but more than 160 nations have signed the Mine Ban Treaty which commits to banning the production, use and stockpiling of anti-personnel mines. Ukraine is a signatory to this treaty, but after Russia's occupation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine informed fellow signatories that its application of the treaty in the occupied areas would be is limited and is 'not guaranteed'. Anti-personnel landmines are explosives which are often concealed on the ground and designed to detonate when people step over or near them. Russian forces have been using landmines widely in Ukraine - since it launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has deployed landmines to both defend their positions and slow down the Ukrainians. Clearing land that has been mined can take a long period of time. The process is also costly, with the World Bank reporting last year that demining Ukraine would cost $37.4bn. Washington officials say the mines will be delivered soon and would be used on Ukraine's territory, but 'away from densely-populated areas'. Mr Austin said the US devices after some days lose charge and can no longer detonate. According to its statement, the Halo Trust, the world's largest landmine clearing charity said Ukraine has been reclassified this month as ’massively contaminated’ with landmines, and some of the charity's estimates suggest they are present in up to 40% of the country - more than two million landmines have been laid in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war in 2022. The provision of anti-personnel land mines is the latest move by the outgoing US administration before President-elect Trump is inaugurated on 20 January. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

Nov 20, 2024 14:26 IST  After a Trump win and in the transition period, Biden has done something that could alter the course of history. He handed over long-range US-made missiles to Ukraine and allowed their use to hit targets deep inside Russia. Without losing any moment, Ukraine attacked Russia with six of these missiles yesterday. This could well lead to the much-feared World War III. What everyone is asking is whether Biden did this to disrupt the transition. The Ukraine-Russia War saw its 1,000th day on November 19. Many in the US think that Biden is leaving behind a chaos which would be difficult for Trump to manage. Some are even calling it 'Biden's attempt to plunge US into war'. "Only Congress can declare war, but the Biden admin is doing everything it can in its final days to provoke war with Russia. Congress must ask itself what can be done to prevent this admin from escalating its proxy war with Russia into a direct nuclear conflict. Biden is trying to plunge us into WW3," said Representative Taylor Greene. This also pushes the world closer to a nuclear war. To many, this last-minute approval by Biden looks like an attempt by the US President to cling onto power. The fear of an imminent escalation in war that could first impact Nato countries in Russia's proximity, has made Sweden, Finland and Denmark issue emergency guidelines, asking citizens to stock up on food and water. Biden's approval of missile use has dangerously escalated the war and left many asking if this was a coup against the incoming President. (Source: India Today)

20/11/2024 - 09:55  Yesterday US President-elect Trump nominated the former head of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) McMahon to lead US education department which he has pledged to abolish when he returns to the White House. “We will ultimately eliminate the federal Department of Education,” he said in September during a rally in Wisconsin. McMahon, a major donor to Trump's presidential campaign, is a co-chair of Trump’s transition team tasked with filling some 4,000 positions in the government ahead of his return to the White House in January. Since 2021, she has chaired the Center For The American Worker at the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute. In 2017, she was confirmed as the head of the Small Business Administration, which is responsible for supporting America’s millions of small businesses, which employ around half the country’s private-sector workforce. At the culmination of a staged feud, Trump once body-slammed her husband, legendary wrestling promoter Vince, and shaved his head in the middle of a wrestling ring on live television. (Source: France24 / AFP – France)

 NATO

November 20, 2024 2:51 AM  In Finland's Arctic Lapland some 3,600 soldiers from the United States, Sweden, the United Kingdom, France and other NATO members conduct live fire drills throughout November. They are part of NATO's largest artillery exercise ever held in Europe, dubbed Dynamic Front 25, which also includes drills in Estonia, Germany, Romania and Poland involving a total of around 5,000 soldiers. The exercises are the first large-scale maneuvers held in Finland since the Nordic country joining NATO brought "280,000 soldiers to NATO's northern flank. In a region where temperatures typically drop to below minus 20 degrees Celsius during winter months, the Finnish defense forces are known for being well-trained and equipped for harsh winter conditions. The hilly Rovajarvi area, measuring more than 1,000 square kilometers, it is Europe's largest firing range and training area, and allies come to rehearse in its difficult conditions. (Source: Voice of America - U.S. / Agence France-Presse – France)

Space

November 20, 2024 2:30 AM  Musk's SpaceX launched its giant Starship rocket to space from SpaceX's sprawling rocket development site in Boca Chica, Texas. on Nov 19. US President-elect Trump watched from the company's rocket facilities. The roughly 122m-tall rocket system, designed to land astronauts on the moon and ferry crews to Mars, lifted off at 4pm Central time (0600 SGT). The rocket's 71m-tall first stage booster, called Super Heavy, detached from its second stage, Starship, at roughly 62 km in altitude, sending the craft into space. Super Heavy unexpectedly splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico instead of returning land, where it was expected to fall into large mechanical arms attached to the tower it launched from. A live stream separate from SpaceX's and hosted by space blogger Everyday Astronaut showed the Super Heavy booster exploding into a massive fireball on the Gulf horizon after splashing down. Starship in October demonstrated the novel catch-landing method for the first time, achieving a key milestone in its reusable design. In space, Starship travelled around Earth for a daytime splashdown in the Indian Ocean roughly an hour later. It reignited one of its onboard engines in space for the first time, an early test of its maneuverability in space that SpaceX had tried but failed to do in past flights. Nasa chief Nelson, who is expected to leave his role once Trump takes office in January, congratulated SpaceX in a post on X and said Starship's in-space engine reignition marked major progress towards orbital flight. (Source: AsiaOne – Singapore)

4 11 20 .23:37

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Europe

France
November 18, 2024  'Ukrainian forces are preparing a potential 'counterattack' in the Kursk region'. The Ukrainians could soon be bolstered by thousands of soldiers who had recently completed training in France with light battle tanks and artillery. The French task force Champagne oversaw the training of more than 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers who will soon return to the frontlines. They'll be armed with 18 AMX 10 light tanks, 18 mobile Caesar artillery pieces, and 128 armored troop carriers. The newly formed Ukrainian brigade was fittingly named 'Anne of Kyiv' to honor the former Kyiv princess who became Queen of France after marrying King Henry I. The AMX-10 RC has been employed with French cavalry units since the early 1980s. A total of 457 were produced, and around 240 are reported to be in service with the French Army – while others were sold to Morocco and Qatar. The vehicles are armed with a 105mm F2 BK MECA L/47 main gun, and have been deployed in a reconnaissance role in contested environments and for fire support. A crew of four operates the tank destroyer, which first saw service in the 1980s Western Sahara War. It was later employed in the 1991 Gulf War, and the War in Afghanistan, as well as in recent French military operations in Mali. (Source: The National Interest)

Germany
18.11.2024  Germany is to deliver 4,000 strike drones to Ukraine, the daily Bild newspaper reported today. Kyiv is expected to receive the drones within the next few weeks. German Defense Minister Pistorius announced in June that he would support Ukraine with additional systems in its war with Russia. The drones will reportedly have a significantly higher range than the Ukrainian kamikaze drones and could also be deployed against tanks and Russian military positions. Internally, the drones are also referred to as “Mini-Taurus” in reference to the German cruise missile. Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains opposed to delivery of long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, according to deputy government spokesperson Buchner. The Taurus missiles well-known for successfully targeting objects including bridges, or hard and deeply buried targets such as command bunkers could potentially reach the Russian capital Moscow with a range exceeding 500 kilometers. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

November 18, 2024, Monday // 10:41  Habeck, the Vice Chancellor of Germany, received overwhelming support for his candidacy for chancellor, securing 96.48% of votes at the Green Party congress in Würzburg. Alongside Foreign Minister Baerbock, he will lead the Green Party's campaign for the ’upcoming February elections’. In a recent interview, Habeck discussed his stance on sending weapons to Ukraine, confirming that if he were to become chancellor, ’he would approve the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles’. As Germany's Minister of the Economy, he noted that decisions on arms supplies were among the most challenging he has faced in his career. Despite Habeck's support for sending such missiles, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has firmly opposed the idea. Scholz has expressed concerns that supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine could potentially allow the country to strike targets in Moscow, escalating the conflict further. (Source: Novinite – Bulgaria)

Russia
Monday 18 November 2024 21:25 GMT  Biden’s decision to let Ukraine strike targets inside Russia with US-made long-range missiles is an ’escalation’ of the conflict, Moscow said yesterday as it warned use of the weapons would trigger a ’tangible’ response. 'It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to … continue pouring oil on the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict,' Putin’s spokesperson Peskov said. Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta accused Mr Biden of one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration… risking catastrophic consequences. Biden’s move – previously ruled out over fears of bringing about a direct confrontation between Russia and Nato – put fresh pressure on Britain to follow suit with UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. Keir Starmer at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro did not rule out a change, saying: ’We need to double down … to make sure Ukraine has what is necessary for as long as necessary, because we cannot allow Putin to win this war.’ Defence minister Eagle also hinted at a shift over weapons, telling MPs: “We intend to align with our allies in making sure that Ukraine can make use of the capabilities that’s been offered by those who have committed support to that country in its fight.” Zelensky has been lobbying Western allies for months for permission to strike targets in Russian territory, arguing he cannot hit the bases Mr Putin is using to launch air attacks against his country. Allies of the president-elect condemned the decision. Grenell, Mr Trump’s former director of national intelligence, accused Biden of escalating the wars before he leaves office and said that allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles at Russia amounted to launching a whole new war. Hungary’s foreign minister Szijjártó said it was incredibly dangerous. (Source: The Independent – United Kingdom)

November 18, 2024 10:13 IST  The Russian MPs have threatened that ’Ukraine would be in ruins in the morning’ after reports of Biden's authorisation. Hours after reports emerged that US President Biden has authorised Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied ballistic missiles for attacks inside Russia, lawmakers in Moscow have reacted to the decision, stating this could escalate the conflict in Ukraine, leading to World War Three. The Russian lawmakers reacted that Biden's policy change meant that Ukrainian ruin was imminent. Klishas, a senior member of Russia's upper chamber of parliament, took to Telegram to post that the West has ’decided on such a level of escalation that it could end with the Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning.’ Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house's international affairs committee, told TASS agency that Moscow's response will be immediate. ’This is a very big step towards the start of World War Three,’ the agency quoted Dzhabarov as saying. Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma lower house's foreign affairs committee, too said that the move could invite a tougher response. Zelenskyy has not yet confirmed the NYT report on Biden's policy change but hinted in vague terms that ’the number of missiles used to strike Russia’ is the more important fact than the authorisation. It is expected that the Ukrainians could use the ATACMS missiles to hit Russian ’and North Korean’ troop concentrations in Kursk. These troops are deployed by Russia so that it can retake the land from Ukraine before entering any negotiations. If Russia succeeds in retaking Kursks, Ukraine would have nothing in hand to trade for. (Source: The Week - India)

Asia

Lebanon
18.11.2024  At least 26 people were killed and dozens injured as Israel launched fresh airstrikes in southern Lebanon today. Israeli fighter jets conducted 10 airstrikes in the city of Nabatieh, leaving eight people dead and injuring several others. Six medics were also killed in an airstrike on a center of the Hezbollah-run Islamic Health Authority in the town of Arab Salim. One more person was killed in another attack in the Bent Jbeil district. Israeli warplanes also launched airstrikes in several areas near Tyre, killing 11 people and injuring 48 others. More than 3,400 people have been killed, over 14,600 injured and more than 1 million displaced by Israeli attacks since last October, according to Lebanese health authorities. Tel Aviv expanded the conflict by launching a ground assault into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 this year. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Eurasia

November 18, 2024, 11:24 AM  An important dynamic in an already complicated conflict is the increasing involvement of East Asian powers in a European war. Besides ’the recent arrival of at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers on the Russian side’, the evolving roles of China, Japan, and South Korea raise the question of whether a widening proxy war is being fought in Ukraine. Russia’s war against Ukraine has all the trappings of a proxy war - when two countries fight each other indirectly - by supporting warring participants in a third country. The war is setting a new precedent for Indo-Pacific nations to compete for their interests on the global stage. Their participation adds an element of uncertainty and potential escalation to the conflict in Ukraine.The security challenges in East Asia have, in part, been exported to Europe. The Kremlin has clearly articulated its view that Ukraine has no agency as an independent state ’and that the target of its invasion is the West’ - specifically, the United States. Members of NATO and several other Western-aligned countries, in turn, are supporting Ukraine with weapons deliveries. The West’s intention may be Ukraine’s defense, but its efforts are necessarily directed at Russia. By forcing Putin to fail in his goal of subjugating Ukraine, Western support for Ukraine undermines Russia. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin suggested as much, admitting that “we want to see Russia weakened.” Beijing, Pyongyang, Seoul, and Tokyo are supporting their respective partners on European soil in order to wage a much broader struggle over the future of the international order. This, in turn, indicates the extent to which the war has become global - and has set a new precedent for how Asian nations compete for their interests in other parts of the world. Despite China refraining from overtly providing Russia with weapons, it has worked to ensure Moscow’s ability to continue its war. Not only has it opposed Western sanctions, but it has also used its diplomatic connections in the global south to prevent a broader condemnation of Russia. According to U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, China now supplies Russia with about 90 percent of its microelectronics imports and 70 percent of machine tool imports. According to customs data, Beijing ships more than $300 million worth of dual-use goods to Russia every month. China this year participated in military exercises in Belarus, only a few miles from the Polish border. North Korea was one of only five countries that voted against the U.N. General Assembly resolution opposing Russia’s aggression. Last week Pyongyang ratified a military alliance that pledges either country to aid the other in case of attack. North Korea has provided Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles. The most escalatory step ’occurred last month, when North Korea sent about 10,000 troops to Russia’, some of whom are now reported to be fighting the Ukrainians in Russia’s Kursk region. Both Beijing and Pyongyang have an overarching strategic interest in seeing Moscow prevail. Chinese President Xi and North Korean leader Kim see Putin as an ally in a global struggle against the West, which makes supporting his war in Ukraine a strategic imperative. Both share Russia’s vision of a post-Western world order, in which the United States and its allies are weakened. Early on, Japan coordinated sanctions against Russia with Western partners. Tokyo also provides to Ukraine nonkinetic military equipment - including vehicles, flak jackets, and reconnaissance drones - as well as some $12 billion in other aid, making Tokyo one of Kyiv’s top bilateral donors. Japan also revised its restrictions on weapons exports, enabling the transfer of Japanese-manufactured Patriot missiles to the United States, thereby helping to ensure U.S. stockpiles remain stable even as some of this equipment is sent to help Ukraine. Diplomatically, during Japan’s 2023 G-7 presidency, then-Prime Minister Kishida extended invitations to various countries from the global south so that President Zelensky could engage with their representatives at the group’s May summit. South Korea has provided Ukraine substantial humanitarian aid and other nonlethal support, such as mine-clearing equipment, body armor, and helmets. It has also joined in economic sanctions against Moscow. And like Japan, it has replenished U.S. weapons stocks, supplying the United States with artillery shells and thereby freeing up Washington’s ability to send shells to Ukraine. Similarly, South Korea has greatly increased defense exports to Poland, part of which backfilled the latter’s deliveries to Ukraine in the early days of the war. Following the news of North Korean troops arriving in Russia, Seoul is now floating the idea of directly supplying Kyiv with defensive and offensive weapons. Proxy war motivations hold for Tokyo and Seoul. Kishida famously warned, “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” Echoing Kishida, South Korean President Yoon told last year that “the war in Ukraine has reminded us all that a security crisis in one particular region can have a global impact.” Granted, the level of support currently from the East Asian powers will likely be a function of how committed the United States and Russia remain in the months and years ahead. Trump’s return to the White House could result in changes on the battlefield - but not necessarily in the nature of Indo-Pacific involvement. If he could end the war in a day - and both sides accept the outcome - then the proxy war ends. If he cannot and the conflict continues in some manner, so does the proxy war, but the level of commitment may change. In a situation where the United States stops supporting Ukraine but European NATO members step up, it is likely that Japan and South Korea would also continue their support which could be reduced, since some of their activities have come as a request by their U.S. ally. It is hard to see China and North Korea reducing their involvement, given that their support could help Russia succeed and advance their strategic goal of destroying the existing order. Changes in the degree of U.S. involvement under a second Trump administration will not alter the fundamental proxy war constellation: All four East Asian powers are supporting a third party to undermine their competitor’s ability to undermine their national interests. (Source: Foreign Policy – U.S.)
by Hornung, the Japan lead in the National Security Research Division at the RAND Corporation and an adjunct professor in the Asian Studies Program at Georgetown University.

North America

United States
(18 November 2024)  Trump has campaigned on a promise to end the US involvement in wars and instead use taxpayers' money to improve Americans' lives. When the next president takes office, he can make his own decisions, State Department spokesman Miller said. ’We will use every day of our term to pursue policy interests that we believe are in the interests of the American people’. Biden's apparent green light for Ukraine at the weekend to ditch a long-standing red line to strike Russia with US-made long-range missiles has caused consternation among Trump's allies. Trump has always seen himself as a dealmaker and will not want Biden to take any such credit. People close to him have condemned the move as dangerous escalation. His son, Trump Jr, was among the first Republicans to respond. ’The military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War Three going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives," he said. Senator Vance, who will be Trump's vice-president, has regularly objected to providing arms to Ukraine. He argued that the US lacks the manufacturing capacity to continue providing weapons like the missile systems that Kyiv will use to strike within Russia. Polls suggest a large number of Republicans want US support for Ukraine to stop - 62% told a poll by Pew Research the US had no responsibility to support the country against Russia. The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank, has published a map of 225 Russian military installations within range of ATACMS. The Russian leader will be fully aware of the magnitude of the threat of Western-supplied long-range missiles. ’Ukraine has had ATACMS as well as UK and French Storm Shadow missiles of similar range for some time’, though the numbers are not known. But it has not been allowed to use them inside Russia. Former US envoy to Ukraine, Volker, said Biden's decision would enable Ukraine to go after airfields, the ammunition depots and the fuels supplies, logistics that Russia has, which right now are in a sanctuary zone in Russia. 'Biden's decision has not been formally confirmed and it may never be’. France and the UK are expected to follow the US lead and issue the same authorisation to Ukraine. The move also follows a barrage of Russian attacks: One strike on Odesa today killed 10 people, including seven policemen, and injured 47 others. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

November 18, 2024 2:45 pm (EST)  With little more than two months left in office, President Biden reportedly allowed the use of American-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) inside Russia. This comes a little more than a week after another post-election decision to allow a small number of U.S. defense contractors to fix U.S.-made weapons systems inside Ukraine, rather than forcing Ukrainians to take their weapons to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries for repair. Biden has given Ukrainians access to almost all the weapons they have asked for - including Abrams heavy tanks, Bradley armored fighting vehicles, Patriot air-defense batteries, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and, most recently, F-16 fighter jets. Ukraine has crossed one supposed Russian red line after another - including repeatedly deploying drones to bomb Moscow and sending Ukrainian ground forces to occupy part of Russia’s Kursk province in August 2024. Ukraine now finds itself on the defensive and losing ground in the eastern Donbas region at the fastest rate since 2022. Russian troops are inching toward the key city of Pokrovsk, a major logistics and transportation hub that anchors the Ukrainian defense of the east. Russia has ramped up recruiting to keep up with its losses. Now its forces have been augmented by 10,000 North Korean troops as part of an offensive meant to drive the Ukrainians from the Russian Kursk region. ’It is the involvement of the North Koreans that evidently prompted Biden to reconsider his prohibition on Ukraine using ATACMS with a range of 190 miles against targets inside Russia’. (Some estimates put the total number possessed by Kyiv at less than fifty.) Biden had already allowed the Ukrainians to deploy HIMARS, with a range of fifty miles, ’inside Russia to defend Kharkiv’. ’It is possible that, following the U.S. decision, Britain and France could allow Ukraine to similarly utilize their SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles’.The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, has identified hundreds of significant Russian military targets within 190 miles of the border with Ukraine. These now reportedly include the bases where North Korean troops have been preparing for their attacks on Ukrainian positions. Bloomberg has reported that Pyongyang could send around 100,000 more troops. The North Korean troop contributions can reduce the pressure on Putin to stage unpopular, involuntary call-ups of Russian reservists. ’Biden’s decision to extend ATACMS authority can help increase the pressure on Putin to negotiate’. Time could be running out for U.S. aid to Ukraine. President-Elect Trump takes office on January 20. He has pledged to end the war within a day, without spelling out how he could accomplish this feat. Many in Trump’s camp appear eager to cut off aid to Ukraine.      ’How Ukraine is tapping the U.S. Arsenal? U.S. security assistance between January 20, 2020, and October 15, 2024:      Infantry arms and equipment: 10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems; 120,000 other anti-armor systems and munitions; 3,000 Stinger anti-aircraft systems; 9,000 TOW missiles; 50,000 grenade launchers and small arms; 400 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades; 100,000 sets of body armor and helmets; Night-vision devices, surveillance systems, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders; C-4 and other explosives; Explosive-ordnance-disposal equipment; M18A1 Claymore mines; Anti-armor mines; Mine-clearing equipment; Obstacle-emplacement equipment; Medical supplies; Field equipment, cold-weather gear, generators, and spare parts; Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear protective equipment; 27 armored bridging systems; Rocket launchers and ammunition; 25mm ammunition; Counter–air defense capability.    Air defense: 3 Patriot air defense batteries and munitions; 12 NASAM systems; Avenger air defense systems; HAWK air defense systems and munitions; Laser-guided rocket systems; AIM-7 missiles; RIM-7 missiles; AIM-9M missiles; Antiaircraft guns and ammunition; Equipment to integrate with and sustain Ukraine’s systems and to protect critical infrastructure; VAMPIRE anti-drone systems and munitions; Anti-drone gun trucks and ammunition; Anti-drone laser-guided rocket systems; Air defense systems components; Other anti-drone equipment.    Air-to-ground missiles: High-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARMs); Precision aerial munitions; 6,000 Zuni aircraft rockets (can function as air defense); 20,000 Hydra-70 aircraft rockets.    Manned aircraft: 20 Mi-17 helicopters.    Artillery: 200 155mm Howitzers and 3 million rounds, including 7,000 precision-guided rounds and 60,000 anti-armor mine rounds; 72 105mm Howitzers and 800,000 rounds; 10,000 203mm rounds, 400,000 152mm rounds; 40,000 130mm rounds, and 40,000 122mm rounds; 200 mortar systems; 600,000 mortar rounds; 40 HIMAR systems; 60,000 122mm Grad rockets; Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb launchers and ammunition; Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) Explosive and combat drones: Switchblade drones; Phoenix Ghost drones; ALTIUS-600 drones (can also be used for surveillance); Munitions.    Surveillance drones: ScanEagle drones; Puma drones; JUMP 20 drones; CyberLux K8 drones; Penguin drones (can also be used as combat drone); Black Hornet drones.    Tanks and armored carriers: 300 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles; 4 Bradley Fire Support Team vehicles; 31 Abrams tanks; 45 T-72B tanks (via the Czech Republic); 189 Stryker armored personnel carriers; 800 M113 armored personnel carriers; 400 M1117 armored security vehicles; 300 armored medical-treatment vehicles; 1,000 MRAP vehicles; 125mm, 120mm, and 105mm tank ammunition.    Coastal defense: 2 Harpoon coastal defense systems; 100 coastal and riverine patrol boats; Unmanned coastal defense vessels; Port and harbor security equipment.    Radar and communications: 4 satellite communications antennas; 2 radars for drones; 21 air surveillance radars; 100 counter-artillery and counter-; mortar radars; 50 multi-mission radars; Tactical secure communications systems; Electronic warfare and counter–electronic warfare equipment; 4 SATCOM antennas; SATCOM terminals and services.   Ground support vehicles: 5,000 Humvees; 1,153 tactical vehicles; 200 light tactical vehicles; 80 trucks; 200 trailers; 10 command-post vehicles; 30 ammunition-support vehicles; 6 armored utility trucks; 20 logistics-support vehicles; 239 fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers; 58 water trailers.    Satellite services: Commercial satellite imagery services Note: Some numbers are approximations. Sources: U.S. Department of Defense; CFR research’. (Source: Council on Foreign Relations - U.S.)
by Boot

November 18, 2024  'It is a start'.  It is estimated that there are several hundred high-value military targets, such as bases, command and control centers, air defense systems, logistical hubs, ammunition dumps, and transportation infrastructure, inside Russia and within easy reach of Ukraine’s Western long-range weaponry. 'ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will benefit from any partial sanctuary if Western states continue to impose restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself and that the US should allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate military targets within Russia's operational and deep-rear within range of US-provided weapons – not just those in Kursk Oblast,' the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict. According to Le Figaro, European officials are debating on whether to follow the U.S. and allow the Storm Shadow (UK) and SCALP-EG (France) to be used against targets inside Russia. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)

November 18, 2024  American „defense” planning in the shadow of protracted war - what it would take to deter or defeat a Chinese assault on Taiwan? Beijing, it seems, has a strong preference for a short, sharp war that leverages its geographic proximity to the island and exploits Washington’s remoteness from the scene. Washington, therefore, must be able to fight a short, sharp war of its own to stop Beijing from executing a military fait accompli. But both sides cannot achieve rapid decisive battle. The historical record suggests that although many militaries plan to win big and win quickly, great-power conflicts are often protracted affairs characterized by gradual attrition. The extent that the United States is beginning to address these concerns, it is focused on mobilizing its defense-industrial base to carry out a lengthy fight if its initial campaign falls short of expectations. A strategy that calls for smashing Chinese military forces in and around the Taiwan Strait might seem like it offers a straight line to victory, but it could leave the United States poorly positioned for a long fight. Preparing for a long fight, choices are deeply at odds with the contemporary American way of war, which emphasizes massing forces, responding quickly, and destroying the adversary’s frontline military forces in a limited conflict. That seems to leave for Washington one course of action: a defensively oriented, highly lethal denial campaign that would damage or destroy enough enemy forces to prevent China from gaining control over Taiwan in the first place. In short, if United States does not react quickly and forcefully, and if it does not inflict enormous losses on its opponent, Taiwan could fall, particularly as the military balance between the island and the mainland shifts further and further in the latter’s favor. Decisive battle is historically rare, especially if both antagonists are unwilling or unable to inflict the level of destruction necessary to actually knock their opponent down for the count. Given that the United States and China appear to be preparing for limited war (not regime change or unconditional surrender), and have designed their kinetic forces for tailored attacks on military targets (not widespread attacks on war-related industry), a prospective conflict between them is unlikely to be the exception that proves the rule. The theory of victory underpinning a successful campaign of denial does not explain how the destruction of China’s air and maritime forces would be anything other than the first round of a longer fight against a revanchist rival whose military-industrial capacity would remain untouched. And it is equally unlikely that Beijing could or would do enough damage to prevent the United States from rearming and reattacking eventually. A collision between the United States and China would most likely be a drawn-out affair in which neither side is able to gain a decisive advantage quickly, or in which one side gains a temporary advantage that turns out to be the beginning of a much longer fight. That could lead to one of several possible scenarios: of protracted wars over the disposition of Taiwan or a protracted war between the United States and China in which Taiwan, whatever its status, becomes a secondary consideration. The strategic demands associated with confronting multiple rivals in multiple regions exert a heavy influence on defense planners. If the United States no longer has the ability to successfully fight two wars at once, then keeping adversaries in a box might require winning the first war big and winning it fast, so that potential opportunists will remain on guard and on the sidelines. The tenets of rapid decisive battle, which have influenced American military planning for decades and continue to shape how the U.S. military manages the China problem, are directly at odds with the sources of success in a long war. The first principle of protracted war is to survive the initial fight. The quest for rapid decisive battle often goes hand-in-hand with the risk of decisive losses. Success means degrading the sources of an opponent’s military power, including its economic and military-industrial capacity, both at home and abroad. This clashes with the imperative to target frontline forces, especially within a small geographic box like the Taiwan Strait, in pursuit of decisive battle against an opposing military alone. The United States appears to be pursuing a strategy, and designing a force, for a low probability scenario: an invasion of Taiwan that can be halted quickly at the point of attack, and at an acceptable cost, through the destruction of adversary frontline units. This fits well with the American military’s preference for a swift response, overwhelming force, and escalation management, even when it does not play to American strengths. By putting its forces at risk and keeping coercive options off the table, however, those decisions could leave Washington disadvantaged in the type of scenario it is more likely to confront, namely an indecisive conflict that drags on over time and extends far beyond the narrow confines of the Taiwan Strait. Undermining an adversary’s geopolitical and economic position is just as important in protracted war as destroying its frontline forces. For decades, defense officials have sought to keep conflicts geographically constrained and minimize the damage inflicted on non-military targets, even though global force projection - including the ability to strike any target, anywhere in the world - remains an enduring American military advantage. That arguably has left the U.S. military ill-prepared and ill-equipped to degrade a rival’s economic and industrial capacity in a long war. Force preservation becomes increasingly important in protracted war. Washington cannot, then, rush its all of its most valuable assets to the rescue of Taiwan. Policymakers need to consider the range of plausible outcomes that exist in between the unlikely extremes of a quick Chinese capture of Taiwan and a quick U.S. defeat of China, and determine which of those outcomes are actually acceptable. A genuine victory in the most likely conflict scenario - a prolonged, grinding fight - looks quite different from current theories of victory. It leverages different advantages than the current American way of war and it requires far more than a revitalization of the defense-industrial base. (Source: War on the Rocks – U.S.)
by Montgomery, a senior fellow and the director of research and studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He previously served as special advisor to the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff;
Ouellet, a researcher at the Institute for Defense Analyses. He previously served as vice director for Joint Force.

.4 11 19 23:14

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Europe

Russia
Sunday 17 November 2024 10:06 GMT  According to a daily report released by Russia‘s Ministry of Defense, Russian troops took control of two settlements in Donetsk and inflicted damage on Ukraine’s energy facilities, a military airfield and production workshops for unmanned aerial vehicles. Blasts were heard across Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities early today morning, in what Ukrainian officials have described as the biggest missile attack since August. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

Vatican
November 17, 2024 3:28 pm CET  “According to some experts, what is happening in Gaza has the characteristics of a genocide,' the pope says, according to excerpts of the book titled “Hope Never Disappoints. Pilgrims Towards a Better World” written by Alcaide based on interviews with Francis and published by Italian daily La Stampa today. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Asia

Iran
November 17, 2024 10:24 IST  On September 26, Tehran has elected Khamenei's second son Mojtaba as the next head of the country, Israeli media Ynet News quoted Iran International, a Persian media outlet with ties to Iranian regime opponents. The selection was held after the 60 members of Iran's Assembly of Experts convened on Khamenei's demand. This secretive meeting was called without prior notice, deliberated and finally decided to unanimously select Mojtaba as the successor. The members were told to keep the meeting very secret, fearing public protests. The report added that as Khamenei is battling a serious health condition, he may abdicate soon to ensure a smooth transition. Electing the successor became a priority after the assassination of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah and Hamas chief Haniyeh in Tehran which has prompted Khamenei to isolate himself for protection with only a handful of loyalists given access to him. His son Mojtaba is reportedly the only individual he can trust and influence as a future leader. Mojtaba was given the title of ayatollah two years back, thereby giving him the most important constitutional prerequisite for the Supreme Leader role. (Source: The Week – India)

North America

United States
(Sunday), November 17, 2024 5:45 PM  After he won this year's presidential election, Trump wasted no time and called Zelensky and Putin within the first few days. Zelensky recently told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that Trump's return to office makes it certain that the war will end sooner. ’Critics warn that a rushed settlement of the war could favor Putin’. The Biden administration has pledged to continue strengthening U.S. military support for Ukraine in the final months of his administration, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken confirmed Wednesday. ’We will continue to shore up everything we're doing for Ukraine to make sure that it can effectively defend itself against this Russian aggression,’ Blinken told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels, prior to meetings with allied envoys and Ukrainian officials. Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, supporters of President-elect Trump took to social media today to react to President Biden’s reported authorization of Ukraine to use U.S. ATACMS rockets to launch strikes against Russian territory, to accuse Biden of escalating the conflict with just months left in office and highlighting Trump's campaign promise to end the conflict. ’"On his way out of office, Biden is dangerously trying to start WWIII by authorizing Ukraine the use of U.S. long range missiles into Russia. The American people gave a mandate on Nov 5th against these exact America last decisions and do NOT want to fund or fight foreign wars. We want to fix our own problems. Enough of this, it must stop," Representative Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican and staunch Trump supporter, condemned Biden writing on X. Venture capitalist Sacks also posted on X. "President Trump won a clear mandate to end the war in Ukraine. So what does Biden do in his final two months in office? Massively escalate it. Is his goal to hand Trump the worst situation possible?’ he wrote. Responding to Senator Lee, a Utah Republican, who wrote on X that ’Libs love war’ and ’War facilitates bigger government,’ billionaire Musk retweeted Lee's post with the message, "True." Trump Jr. wrote on X: ’The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives. Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be damned!!! Imbeciles!" Turning Point USA founder Kirk wrote on X, ’Biden is trying to start World War 3. This is pathological and totally insane. US weaponry should NOT be used to fire into the interior of Russia! Imagine if Russia supplied missiles to fire into America!’ Russian media reported that Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova told RBC TV that Russian President Putin has already spoken on what he thinks about potential strikes inside Russia with U.S. long-range weapons. Referring to remarks made on September 12, Putin said that the potential decision to use Western long-range missiles against Russia would be viewed as the United States' and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries' direct participation in the war, which he said would significantly change ’the very nature of the conflict.’ (Source: The Herald - Scotland / Newsweek - U.S.)

November 17, 2024 8:46 PM GMT+1.  Biden allows Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia. Kyiv's other allies have been supplying weapons but with restrictions on how and when they can be used inside Russia, out of concern such strikes could prompt retaliation that draws NATO countries into the war or provokes a nuclear conflict. Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, the sources said today. The move comes two months before President-elect Trump takes office on Jan. 20 and follows months of pleas by Zelenskiy to allow Ukraine's military to use U.S. weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border. One of Trump's closest foreign policy advisers, Grenell, criticized the decision. 'Escalating the wars before he leaves office,' Grenell said, in an X post responding to the news. Since Trump's Nov. 5 victory, senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly said they would use the remaining time to ensure Ukraine can fight effectively next year or negotiate peace with Russia from a 'position of strength'. Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said 'it had clashed with some of North Korean troops deployed to Kursk'. Ukraine's first deep strikes are likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 306 km, according to the sources. Russia has warned that it would see a move to loosen the limits on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons as a major escalation. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
By Stone and Pamuk. Pamuk is a senior foreign policy correspondent based in Washington DC. During her 20 years with Reuters she covered the U.S. State Department, regularly traveling with U.S. Secretary of State. She holds a BA in International Relations and an MA on European Union studies.

17.11.2024  US President-elect Trump announced yesterday that Wright will join his administration as energy secretary and become a member of the newly-formed Council of National Energy. Wright, a prominent figure in the energy sector, has experience in the nuclear, solar, geothermal and oil and gas industries. Trump highlighted Wright’s role in advancing American energy independence, ’global energy market transformation, particularly through contributions to the shale revolution’ and contribution to what Trump referred to as a “new golden age of American prosperity and global peace.’ The Council of National Energy will oversee all departments and agencies related to energy production, distribution and regulation. It aims to achieve US energy ’dominance’ by reducing regulatory obstacles and prioritizing innovation. Trump said Wright would work closely with Burgum, his choice for interior secretary, to enhance energy independence and foster international partnerships to address global energy needs. With a background in mechanical engineering from MIT, Wright, the founder and chairman of Liberty Energy, an energy service provider, has been recognized for his contributions to the energy sector. He has held leadership roles at companies and is an advocate for renewable and conventional energy solutions. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Nov. 17, 2024  The president-elect seeks to rewrite the balance of power and install lieutenants to blow up key parts of government, shocking the Washington establishment. In less than two weeks since being elected again, Trump has rolled a giant grenade into the middle of the nation’s capital and watched with mischievous glee to see who runs away and who throws themselves on it. So far there have been more of the former than the latter. Mr. Trump has said that “real power” is the ability to engender fear, and he seems to have achieved that. If Republicans bow to his demand to recess the Senate so that he can install appointees without confirmation, it would rewrite the balance of power established by the founders more than two centuries ago. "And if he gets his way on selections for some of the most important posts in government, he would put in place loyalists intent on blowing up the very departments they would lead. He has chosen a bomb-throwing backbench congressman who has spent his career attacking fellow Republicans and fending off sex-and-drugs allegations to run the same Justice Department that investigated him, though it did not charge him, on suspicion of trafficking underage girls. He has chosen a conspiracy theorist with no medical training who disparages the foundations of conventional health care to run the Department of Health and Human Services. He has chosen a weekend morning television host with a history of defending convicted war criminals while sporting a Christian Crusader tattoo that has been adopted as a symbol by the far right to run the most powerful armed forces in the history of the world. He has chosen a former congresswoman who has defended Middle East dictators and echoed positions favored by Russia to oversee the nation’s intelligence agencies". Mr. Trump is opting for nominees who are so provocative that even fellow Republicans wondered whether he is trolling them. The message to Washington is simple: Things are going to be different. “It is a sense that there’s been a seismic shift in the political culture. And, hey, I think they know we’re not going back,” Bannon, the former Trump White House strategist said. Many of Mr. Trump’s supporters agree with his argument that the system is fundamentally broken and needs to be burned down. Business as usual, in this view, has benefited the privileged class at the expense of the broader American public. The government has been thoroughly corrupted and turned against conservatives and their way of life. Leavitt, his incoming press secretary, said Mr. Trump had won „a mandate” to change Washington and to appoint highly qualified men and women who have the talent, experience, and necessary skill sets to make America great again, reflect that. Mr. Trump’s camp has made clear, that it’s a serious strategy to blow out the government as an institution because of their belief that it’s become too big, too powerful and represents the deep state, Marchick, a co-author of The Peaceful Transfer of Power, a history of presidential transitions, and dean of the Kogod School of Business at American University said. ”Mr. Trump is amplifying the’populist’ resentment that has grown since the days of the financial crash of 2008 rather than trying to ameliorate it", Baer, a former White House communications director under President Clinton, said. He tries to tear down the system, not something to tamp down. “What he’s doing now with these appointments is, „These are the people I’m going to do it with and I like that it aggravates you,” Mr. Baer said. In tapping Musk to head a new Department of Government Efficiency along with Ramaswamy have attracted less attention, Mr. Trump has handed vast influence over the federal government to a billionaire who profits from billions of dollars in government contracts. Mr. Trump’s margin of victory in the national popular vote will be one of the smallest in history. Since 1888, only two other presidents who won both the Electoral College and the popular vote had smaller margins of victory: Kennedy in 1960 and Nixon in 1968. Mr. Trump can boast that he increased his margin in the Electoral College, winning 312 votes this year to the 306 he garnered eight years ago. According to nearly complete totals, he secured his most recent victory by a cumulative 237,000 votes in three states. Mr. Trump helped Republicans gain four seats in the Senate, enough to take control of the chamber, certainly a major victory. But he failed to bring with him Republican Senate candidates in four of five battleground states where he campaigned the most and won. Moreover, with races still to be called, Republicans held onto the House but did not build on their razor-thin majority. Despite his modest margins, Mr. Trump has exhibited more dominance of his own party than any president in modern times. And his Senate recess demand will test just how far that dominance will go. The recess appointment power in the Constitution was designed to let a president temporarily fill vacancies while Congress was out of town in an era when it took weeks or months to travel to Washington. Senate Republican leaders did not rule out the idea after Mr. Trump broached it. Even if senators do not agree, Mr. Trump may try to employ a little-used provision in the Constitution allowing him to force a recess. “Trump has promised to be a dictator on Day 1 but has already started before Day 1,” said Daschle, a former Senate Democratic leader from South Dakota. Under the rules, a recess appointee can stay in place until the end of the next congressional session, meaning until December 2026, or almost two years. Given Mr. Trump’s historically short patience with appointees, that means he could have people in key departments for as long as he typically might have them without ever being subjected to Senate confirmation. According to figures from Mr. Marchick, the average tenure for a cabinet secretary in Mr. Trump’s first term other than Treasury, Commerce and Housing and Urban Development was 1.8 years. For the key security agencies - Defense, Justice and Homeland Security - the average term was 10.5 months. (Source: The New York Times – U.S.)
by Baker, the chief White House correspondent for The Times.

.4 11 17 20:52

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Europe

Germany
November 16, 2024 12:19 AM ET  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces a political crisis at home, spoke yesterday with Russian President Putin in a hour-long call. "The chancellor urged Russia to be willing to negotiate with Ukraine with the aim of achieving a just and lasting peace and stressed Germany's unwavering determination to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression for as long as necessary,’ Government spokesman Hebestreit said in a statement. Scholz condemned Russian air raids on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and warned that the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia to fight in the war would mark a serious escalation. The Kremlin said Germany initiated the call, during which the leaders had a detailed and frank exchange of opinions on the situation in Ukraine. Putin responded that any peace deal should acknowledge Russia's territorial gains and security demands, including that Kyiv renounce joining NATO. Putin blamed the current crisis on what he called NATO's "long-standing aggressive policy aimed at creating an anti-Russian stronghold on Ukrainian territory while ignoring our country's security interests and trampling on the rights of Russian-speaking residents," a Kremlin readout said. Putin also said Russia remains open to resuming peace talks, pointing to conditions he laid out in June that included Kyiv renouncing its bid to join NATO and withdrawing troops from the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow annexed in 2022. "Possible agreements should take into account the interests of the Russian Federation in the security sphere, proceed from new territorial realities, and most importantly, eliminate the root causes of the conflict," the readout said. Putin, who earlier this month said it's up to Western leaders to resume contact with Russia if they want, also noted the unprecedented degradation in bilateral relations between Germany and Russia, the Kremlin statement said, while noting that leaders also discussed the situation in the Middle East. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said the leaders had a "detailed" and "frank" exchange of opinions but added that "there is no talk about convergence of opinions.’ It was Kremlin leader's first publicly announced conversation with the sitting head of a major Western power in nearly two years. The two sides agreed to remain in contact after the call. (Source: National Public Radio / The Associated Press – U.S.)

Asia

China
November 16, 2024 01:01 JST  China plans to tighten export controls on key "dual-use’ technologies and items - used for both civilian and military purposes - including raw materials and metals such as tungsten, graphite, magnesium and aluminum alloys used commonly in tech supply chains. Materials such as graphite, aluminum alloys and titanium alloys that are widely used in making electronics products showed on the official dual-use list and will be under export controls if their specifications meet China's new rules. The new controls also include tungsten and magnesium alloys that meet certain specifications. For example, exporters of aluminum alloys with extreme elasticity and an outer diameter larger than 75 millimeters will have to apply for an export license from the Commerce Ministry. China controls more than 80% of the extraction and processing of global tungsten supply, along with around 90% of global magnesium production, according to a European Union estimate on global critical materials supplies. All of these critical metals not only are used widely in the electronics supply chain, but also are indispensable to build defense equipment, weapons, aviation and spacecraft. The export control list also covers certain testing and production equipment, such as analog-to-digital converters that can operate in temperatures ranging from 125 C down to minus 54 C, and lithium isotope separation facility and production equipment. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's biggest contract chipmaker, recently notified some Chinese AI and graphics processing units clients to put on hold production for their 7-nanometer chips. The Taiwanese chipmaker is strengthening scrutiny to avoid running afoul of Washington's stringent export controls against blacklisted Chinese companies, such as Huawei Technologies. China has been tightening export controls on critical materials such as gallium, germanium, rare earths and antimony as countermoves to battle sweeping U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor and artificial intelligence technologies. Tighter Chinese export controls covering so-called dual-use items take effect on Dec. 1. The move comes right after former U.S. President Trump's victory in the presidential election. (Source: Nikkei – Japan)

Turkey
16.11.2024  Türkiye today declared the EU’s Maritime Spatial Planning maps of the Aegean and Mediterranean seas to be 'null and void' with no legal effect. It has repeatedly stressed that its issues with Greece, its Aegean neighbor, should be handled between the two countries, not through the EU or any third countries. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

 North America

United States
11/16/2024 07:00 AM EST  The gender divide has sundered Korean society - and now it’s coming for the U.S. 'No sex, No dating, No babies, No marriage; the 4B movement could change America'. If the movement takes hold, it could potentially lead to some of the same outcomes as have been seen in Korea, where women are reconsidering dates with men out of suspicion and lack or trust, young people are marrying and having children at lower rates, and both men and women are expressing deep loneliness. 'Politicians could take advantage of the divide for their own gains, leaning harder into gender-divide politics, and even outright sexist rhetoric'. And even women may turn against one another; American women are already arguing about the inclusivity of the movement. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
See also: 'give America a severely sharp birth rate decline' (Source: X - U.S.):
Since Nov. 6., 2024. 7:05 AM:  21,3 Million views

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Asia

Iran
Friday 15 November 2024 15:02 GMT  Iran sent a private letter delivered on October 14 to the Biden administration vowing it wouldn’t plot to kill Trump, according to a report. The letter from Tehran came in response to US officials’ private hand-written warning to the country in September, relating that any threats against the then-Republican nominee’s life would be “treated as an act of war". Tehran’s letter was not signed by a specific official. One week earlier the Justice Department announced that it had intercepted a fugitive Iranian government operative’s scheme to assassinate President-elect Trump before election day. Over the summer the Biden administration learned of credible threats targeting US politicians. Amid these alleged threats on his life, Trump told in late September, that he would consider a new nuclear agreement with the country - years after he pulled out of the 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal during his first term. More recently, on Monday, Musk - Trump’s pick to lead the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency - met with Iran’s ambassador to the UN, in New York City. Iranian officials described the meeting to the New York Times as “positive” and “good news.” (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Israel
Friday, 15 November 2024 08:38 AM EST  On Oct. 25, Israel destroyed a top secret Taleghan 2 nuclear weapons research facility in the Parchin military complex, located roughly 20 miles southeast of Tehran during its missile attack on Iran last month, it was reported today. The facility previously had been reported to be inactive. 'They conducted scientific activity that could lay the ground for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing. A small part of the Iranian government knew about this, but most of the Iranian government didn't,' one U.S. official told Axios. The attack destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design the plastic explosives that surround uranium in nuclear devices and are needed to detonate them, an ex-Israeli official told the outlet. After Israeli and U.S. intelligence detected research activity at Parchin earlier this year, White House officials warned the Iranians to stop the undertaking. Israel carried out a series of airstrikes against the Islamic Republic which did not appear to target facilities that would all but ensure a harsh Iranian response. Those most notably include Iran's oil infrastructure, the backbone of the OPEC member's economy, and its nuclear facilities. President Biden earlier last month said he would not support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Because Taleghan 2 was not part of Iran's declared nuclear program, Iran wouldn't be able to acknowledge the importance of the attack without admitting they violated the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Iran has denied it is pursuing nuclear weapons. The Institute for Science and International Security reported that the Taleghan 2 facility, as part of the Iranian Amad nuclear weapons program, was used for testing explosives needed to set off a nuclear device before Iran supposedly halted its military nuclear program in 2003. After Israeli strikes last month, the institute acquired high-resolution satellite imagery showing the Taleghan 2 building was completely destroyed. (Source: Newsmax; "The Associated Press contributed" - U.S.)

Syria
(Friday), 15 November, 2024  Syria state media says second Israeli strike in two days hits the upscale Mazzeh district of Damascus, the neighbourhood home to embassies, security headquarters and United Nations offices today. The attacks coincided with an official visit to Damascus by Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei,, who met with Syrian President Assad. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said the strikes targeted a "military housing complex' in Mazzeh. Israeli strikes yesterday in and around Damascus killed 23 people. Thursday's strike on Mazzeh killed 13 people, including civilians and Iran-backed fighters. An attack on the outskirts of Damascus killed 10 Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants. Islamic Jihad has fought alongside Hamas against Israeli forces in Gaza 'and has been at war with Israel before'. (Source: The New Arab, a London-based pan-Arab news outlet owned by a Qatari company)

North America

United States
November 15, 2024  Between activism and isolationism.      Trump’s potential approach to the Middle East, identifying possible shifts and continuities, can include the Iran-Israel confrontation (centered on the Iranian nuclear program); the Arab-Israeli reconciliation (and the future of the Palestinian question); US military presence in Syria and Iraq; and broader efforts to reshape the Middle Eastern order within the context of US-China strategic competition. The scenarios and possibilities discussed here consider the tensions between two core factions within today’s Republican Party: an isolationist faction on the farther right of the party aligned with Trump’s “America First” vision, and a more activist faction that supports robust American power projection, though not through large-scale ground invasions as seen in Iraq or Afghanistan.         Much in terms of the trajectory of Iran and Israel’s confrontation depends on the threat perception, risk calculation and strategic objectives of each side. The Iranian regime is caught between a rock and a hard place. Iran has been in a mostly reactive position since the Israeli attack on Iranian consulate in Damascus in April. Israel has gained strategic initiative over Iran and is the party that would decide whether, when, how, and where to escalate based on what price it is willing to pay for the ends that it defines for itself.         Much in the US-Israel-Iran relations depends on the direction of Iran’s nuclear program and whether Iran will be willing to negotiate with a Trump administration. Trump has signaled on several occasions that he does not seek regime change in Tehran and that he wants an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian officials are aiming to avoid the possibility of war with the United States or Israel. Iranian Vice-President for Strategic Affairs Zarif, a primary advocate of the former Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal on Iran’s side, has indicated that Tehran would enter into talks with Trump if it is treated with “respect.” During his previous term, Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and issued a twelve-point set of conditions for talks with Iran, which included: Terminating the military dimension of its nuclear program; Allowing rigorous and sudden inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency; Halting Iran’s ballistic missile program; Ceasing support for regional proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and: Disarming Iraqi militias and integrating them into Iraq’s security forces. Iran’s ’repeated attempts to assassinate’ Trump could influence Trump’s personal stance toward Iran, adding another layer of complexity for Tehran. A deal with Washington along the liens of the 12 points might seem like an act of capitulation for Iran. Without its network of regional militias, ballistic missile capabilities, and a nuclear program under stringent international monitoring, the Islamic Republic would undergo a transformation, appearing significantly weakened to both allies and adversaries. This could leave Iran vulnerable to external pressures and domestic unrest, given the government’s oppressive stance on civil liberties, women’s rights, ethnic minorities, and overall economic mismanagement. Rejecting a deal exposes Iran to the serious risk of escalating Israeli and even US attacks, particularly as its air defenses are now severely compromised following recent Israeli strikes in late October. Trump’s policy toward Tehran will also depend on the figures he appoints to key national security and foreign policy roles. Should individuals with strong anti-Islamic Republic views assume these positions, it would be reasonable to expect an aggressive stance from the administration toward Iran. Florida Senator Rubio, Trump’s choice to lead the State Department; former State Department Iran envoy Hook, overseeing the department’s transition; Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for Defense Secretary; Congressman Waltz, the nominee for National Security Advisor; Congresswoman Stefanik, the nominee for US’s UN ambassador role - all these figures are known for tough stances on Iran and strong support for US allies such as Israel. Evans, a prominent Evangelical leader and Trump advisor, told Israel’s i24News that president-elect Trump encouraged Israel to target Iran’s energy infrastructure during Biden’s remaining lame-duck period. With Hamas significantly weakened and Hezbollah decapitated, Netanyahu may feel emboldened to launch a comprehensive strike on Iran before or shortly after January 20 to diminish Tehran’s threat to Israel. The Trump administration is likely to pursue a maximum pressure campaign by imposing new sanctions on key Iranian industries, rigorously enforcing existing sanctions on Iranian oil sales, adopting a ’maximum support’ approach if domestic unrest occurred in Iran, and potentially backing Israeli strikes on Tehran - either to pressure Tehran into a new deal or to punish it severely for refusing one and for its regional behavior. Of Iran’s multi-layered deterrence strategies, only developing a nuclear weapon might shield it against future attacks and possible collapse, given the reduced effectiveness of its Resistance Axis and ballistic missile arsenal. 'With uranium enriched to 60 percent, Iran appears to be now capable of producing weapons-grade, 90-percent-enriched uranium within one to two weeks, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated in July'. Taking actual steps toward building a bomb would certainly invite a devastating Israeli (and US) response.         The Abraham Accords, establishing diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan were foreign policy achievements and legacy of the first Trump administration. A second Trump administration would likely prioritize securing a similar agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Trump’s personal style of diplomacy and strong connections with Crown Prince Salman may aid in this process. Saudi Arabia seems to prefer a comprehensive approach, reiterating the need for a recognized Palestinian state as a precondition for any deal with Israel. Given Saudi Arabia’s leadership role in the Arab and Islamic worlds and its guardianship of Islam’s two holiest sites, the kingdom cannot afford to appear as abandoning the Palestinian cause. The Palestinian issue and militant groups remain potent forces that could disrupt any Arab-Israeli deal that overlooks them. If Kushner returns to a central role in Trump’s Middle East policy, the chances of a comprehensive Saudi-Israeli agreement may increase. A bilateral Saudi-US security agreement might be the most viable alternative.         The ongoing presence of US troops in Syria and Iraq; Given Trump’s emphasis on ending ’endless wars’ abroad, he may be tempted to bring these troops home.      Syria is currently divided into three primary zones, each backed by a major regional or global power. The western part of Syria is dominated by Assad, with the support of Iran, its regional proxies, and Russia; The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control the northern and northeastern energy-rich areas with the backing of a 900-strong US military deployment; Northwestern and parts of northern Syria are controlled by various, mainly Islamist groups supported by Turkey. As a transit point for weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Damascus has an unresolved territorial dispute with Israel over the Golan Heights, which has been under Israeli control since the 1967 War. Syria was a primary base of the islamic state (isis) and has recently witnessed troubling signs of isis resurgence. And Syria has become a site of ongoing tension between Turkey and Kurds. In 2019, Trump ordered a partial withdrawal of US troops from the border areas between Syria and Turkey, enabling Turkey to launch incursions and occupy significant portions of Kurdish-majority areas previously held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Kennedy Jr. recently stated that the president-elect wanted to withdraw the remaining US troops from Syria to avoid them becoming ’cannon fodder’ in the event of a regional conflict between the Assad regime and Turkey. A US withdrawal would likely lead to further instability in Syria. Pulling out the troops would trigger a bloody struggle by various local and regional contenders for the control. Of the SDF territory could potentially lead to the escape of hundreds, if not thousands, of captured isis elements and their radicalized family members from prisons and camps. National Security Advisor Waltz and State Secretary nominee Rubio strongly opposed Trump’s troops’ withdrawal from Syria in 2019.      The United States and Iraq are neither true allies nor adversaries, despite the Strategic Framework Agreement they signed in 2008. Approximately 2,500 US troops are stationed in Iraq, advising Iraqi security forces, ensuring isis’s defeat. The growing dominance of pro-Iran groups within Baghdad’s state institutions, attacks of US forces in Iraq and Syria as part of Iran’s broader strategy to undermine US regional influence placed Iraq and the United States in a murky dynamic. Iran-backed militias have targeted both Israel and US force with dozens of attacks on Israel in the past six weeks. These actions contradict Iraq’s official stance. Recently, Iraqi and US officials reached an agreement for US forces to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2026, with a small contingent remaining in the Kurdistan Region during the last year of this agreement to support the mission in neighboring Syria. This agreement awaits final approval from the US government. The incoming Trump administration may find it tempting to withdraw US troops from Iraq. Ongoing attacks on Israel could potentially make Iraq a target for the Israeli military. Washington has reportedly restrained Israel from adding Iraq to its list of targets. Iraq may also face sanctions due to militia activities, the ’continued smuggling of US-provided dollars’ to Iran and its proxies, and an Iraqi judicial arrest warrant for Trump following the killing of Soleimani and Muhandis, a senior leader of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the umbrella group for predominantly Iran-backed factions. Possibility of Washington revoking exemptions that allow Iraq to purchase Iranian natural gas for its power plants is a tangible prospect. Pressure on the Iraqi government toward meaningful security sector reforms could involve curbing the influence of Iran-backed armed factions and further integrating the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) into the state’s military-security structure. The United States could also alternatively maintain a long-term military presence in Iraqi Kurdistan to support the Syria mission.         The Middle East remains integral to global rivalries by the desire to reduce US engagement. China flexed its diplomatic clout by brokering the 2023 Iran-Saudi deal. The region is central to global trade routes, as evidenced by initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to integrate the region’s vast energy resources. For Washington it would feel compelled to continue strengthening its allies. Washington’s disengagement would likely invite interventions by China or Russia, or intensify regional rivalries among players like Israel, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Turkey, and Iran. Iran tend to design his policies in the region as part of a broader strategy to erode US influence and challenge the US-dominated global order. The selection of individuals for key foreign policy and national security roles suggests a lean toward a more engaged US presence in the region than retreat, continuity in support for Israel and harsher policy toward Iran. The future US policy could still reflect isolationist tendencies, a struggle between activist and isolationist inclinations within the Trump administration. Neither side is likely to gain full control, suggesting US Middle East policy will likely experience shifts in both directions. (Source: The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.)
by Salih, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the FPRI's Middle East Program.

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Europe

Spain
(13 November 2024)  Parts of Spain are again under water, two weeks after the country's worst flooding disaster in decades. /Video/ (Source: 9News - Australia)

Crimea
11/14/24 at 9:36 a.m. ET  The bridge on the Dzhankoi-Maslove route in northern Crimea collapsed on November 13, and the cause has yet to be confirmed. The railway is used to transport military shipments in the territory. The damage to the bridge will disrupt Russia's transportation of supplies in the ongoing war against Ukraine. A truck and a car were on the bridge at the time of its collapse. The bridge could not bear the truck's weight. (Source: Newsweek - United Kingdom)

Russia
Thursday 14 November 2024 16:58 GMT  Ukraine says it has full control of the key city Kupiansk in the northeast of the country, after Russian troops – 'some disguised as Ukrainian soldiers' – were said to have briefly breach its outskirts. Russian attacks in Kupiansk, as well as the counterattack in Kursk and sweeping advances in the eastern Donetsk region along multiple fronts, were already of significant concern to Ukraine and its backers. But US president-elect Trump’s comprehensive victory last week has brought into sharp relief the cost of territorial losses as his advisors confirmed the incoming leader is intent on ending the war, possibly by demanding a freeze of the frontline. Waltz, Mr Trump’s nominee for the White House’s national security advisor, told Voice of America after a meeting with the president-elect: “The president clearly expressed that he wishes to bring both sides to the negotiating table. He is focused on ending the war, not its continuation.” But both Russian officials 'and Ukrainian lawmakers' appear opposed to the idea of a frozen frontline. (Source: The Idependent - United Kingdom)

Ukraine
14/11/2024 - 07:45  Around 500 corruption cases have been opened this year and 60 convictions secured, according to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. The persistent problem will hamper Ukraine's massive reconstruction agenda, deterring international partners from putting up funds. The total cost of reconstructing Ukraine stands is estimated at $486 billion, according to a joint study by the World Bank, UN, EU and Ukrainian government. Even though Ukraine has stepped up its anti-graft measures over the past decade to advance its ambition of joining the European Union, corruption scandals rife in the war-torn country, where for some officials Russia's invasion and a multi-billion-dollar reconstruction programme has provided new opportunities for personal enrichment. Last year, the country launched a platform listing all open projects. Called "DREAM", the aim is to enable investors, journalists and Ukrainians to track the progress of construction projects, said its head Nestulia. Gruyaert agreed to help rebuild destroyed apartment blocks outside Kyiv. But when the French company he works for, Neo-Eco, applied for building permits in the town of Gostomel, the local military administration asked the company to transfer the funds for the multimillion-dollar project to its bank account, under the pretence that it would run the project directly. It is the latest example of the endemic corruption that has plagued Ukraine since it became independent after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The company refused, and progress on the initiative, which had secured 20 million euros in private funding, immediately slowed. The company decided to abandon the project in September 2023, saying it was "impossible" to work under such conditions. Ukrainian investigators said they had uncovered a system of "embezzlement" in the Gostomel military administration and accused its head Borysiuk of appropriating around 21 million hryvnia ($470,000) meant for the reconstruction of houses and apartments. Neo-Eco has had to learn how to 'zigzag between the various obstacles', Gruyaert said. The company is still working on several other projects and encourages other foreign investors to get involved. (Source: France 24 / AFP - France)

November 14, 2024  Since Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, emigration depleted the population while the fertility rate fell to 1.4 births per woman. According to a report by the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, the overall population had declined to 29 million people in 2023 - compared to 48.5 million in 2001. In 2023, Ukraine including its Russian-occupied territories - saw only 187,000 live births, the lowest rate in 300 years. A report by the Financial Times from March 2024 found that of the 11.1 million Ukrainian men aged 25 to 60, 7.4 million were either already mobilized or were unavailable for reasons ranging from disability to employment in critical sectors. Another 900,000 men of military age are not registered in any government systems and thus cannot be conscripted. Of the 3.4 million military-age men in the workforce, 600,000 are considered critical workers and thus unlikely to face conscription. The remaining cohort of potential conscripts therefore numbers just 2.8 million — roughly equal to the number of those who have fled or are disabled. Ukraine faces a 1-for-1 tradeoff between conscripting men into the armed forces or leaving them in the workforce, where they can support the government by paying taxes and otherwise keeping the economy afloat. The decision to conscript more men will reverberate for generations due to its impact on the fertility rate. If Ukraine conscripts older men, it risks creating more widows and orphans who will likely depend on the state for survival. If it conscripts younger men, it risks further damaging the fertility rate and preventing more Ukrainians from being born at all. The country's demographic pyramid has inverted due to aging, low birth rates, and emigration, such that there are roughly 9.5 million employed people whose taxes provide for 23 million pensioners, children, and unemployed people. According to USAID, since 2022, the American government has provided $26.8 billion dollars in direct budgetary support to Ukraine’s government, in addition to billions more in military assistance and in-kind transfers of weapons. Without the support of the U.S. and its European allies, Ukraine would not only struggle to equip its troops, but also to maintain basic government services. Ukraine, fresh off a deal to restructure its international debt, lacks the resources to attract military recruits with competitive salaries. In April, President Zelenskyy split the difference by lowering the draft age from 27 to 25. In recent months, several other efforts to boost recruitment have failed, and their failure has intensified political divisions within Ukraine. Corruption and self-interest also play a role. A significant amount of money may have disappeared into the pockets of local power brokers. In July, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk hosted Zelenskyy in Warsaw, where the two announced an agreement including plans to recruit, train, and equip Ukrainians living in Poland to return to Ukraine to fight. Poland’s defense minister, Kosiniak-Kamysz, noted in an interview that the numbers of volunteers are simply too small. As the Ukrainian government steps up efforts to replenish its troops from a dwindling supply of eligible military-age men, every soldier recruited to the front means one less worker and potentially one less father. Tomorrow, it will need those men to return home, rebuild their lives, rebuild their families, and, ultimately, rebuild their country. (Source: Responsible Statecraft - U.S.)
by Tokarz

Asia

Afghanistan
(November 14, 2024)  The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), citing data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), reported that from August 15, 2023, to September 2024, some 2.2 million Afghan migrants have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan. According to the report, of the total returnees, 734,817 Afghans came back from Pakistan alone. Overall, 32.1 million people across the country have received humanitarian aid. USAID further cited the International Organization for Migration (IOM), noting that Afghanistan was home to 6.6 million internally displaced persons last year. (Source: Amu TV - U.S.)

India
November 14, 2024  In October, China and India reached an agreement on patrolling a stretch of their long-disputed shared border in the high mountains of the Himalayas. It also allowed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi to meet in Russia and hold talks for the first time in five years. Now, many analysts see the possibility of a reset and a return to normal ties. In the last five years India’s imports from China have ballooned. India relies on China for sophisticated technology, such as personal computers, laptops, and the components used in making telecommunications equipment and mobile phones. If Indian policymakers do not break the conceptual barrier between economics and security, India will remain vulnerable to China and its ambitions for hegemony in Asia. Economic dependence will make New Delhi forever vulnerable to Beijing. China’s ambitions continue to circumscribe India’s ability to act at the regional and global levels. In 1962, China and India fought a hugely one-sided war in the Himalayas that resulted in India’s losing vast tracts of land; spats over the long, contested border are still ongoing. The two countries have never formally agreed on the exact line of their shared border, which snakes over 2,000 miles, largely through high, inhospitable terrain. In the 1990s, the neighbors signed accords that emphasized the principle of not using military force to settle the border dispute, allowing India to believe it had won peace even though no conclusive agreement about the border had been reached. But in the years that followed, China strengthened its infrastructure along the border to better support troop deployments. India was not oblivious to these moves, but it opted not to develop corresponding infrastructure on its side out of fear that a Chinese invasion could be abetted by Indian-built roads. Indian governments also hoped that conflict between the two countries was a thing of the past. Under Prime Minister Singh, who ruled from 2004 to 2014, many officials and analysts assumed that China and India could rise together, invoking the somewhat cringeworthy term “Chindia.” Potential new ties with China led the Indian establishment of that era even to downplay China’s maneuvers to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean through its “string of pearls” strategy, which seeks to extend China’s maritime presence by building commercial and military facilities overseas. Modi came to power in 2014 - and China grew more aggressive under Xi. China tried to adjust the status quo in the border region in violation of existing treaties and covenants by moving troops into sensitive areas and provoking confrontations with Indian soldiers, in the process transforming India’s security calculus. India and the United States expanded their partnership to include a greater focus on real-time intelligence sharing and building joint military capabilities in the wider Indo-Pacific. In 2022, they launched a joint initiative on critical and emerging technologies, which sought to encourage cooperation between defense industries, manufacture jet engines in India, and create semiconductor supply chains free of China, among other worthy proposals. During his formal state visit to the United States in June 2023, Modi stressed that he believed New Delhi’s partnership with Washington cemented India’s place in the international order. In practice, India has adopted a more confrontational posture toward China that seeks to discourage Chinese adventurism. Modi has asked Taiwanese President Lai to deepen economic engagement with India through the joint development of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and through a labor-mobility agreement signed in February 2024 that will allow Indian workers to help Taiwan mitigate labor shortages in some sectors. The Modi government also seems to be in sync with a Biden administration initiative to direct greater global attention toward the status of Tibet. In June 2024, India approved a U.S. congressional delegation’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, who lives in exile in India. The Modi government is willing to tread close to China’s redlines about its 'core interests' in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Tibet. Nearly a decade ago, when Xi unveiled the Belt and Road Initiative India opposed it on grounds that it would encourage China’s partners to take on unsustainable levels of debt. India also bristled at the way one plank of the initiative - the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor - moved through territory that New Delhi insists belongs to India and is illegally occupied by Pakistan. But New Delhi enthusiastically participated in the establishment of the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, serving as a founding member. India has been one of the largest beneficiaries of lending from the multilateral institution, receiving $4.4 billion, as of 2018, that has gone into projects related to electricity generation, road construction, and urban rail projects. The Indian government issued new rules in 2020 that modified how foreign direct investments could flow into India, with the not-so-secret aim of limiting Chinese investment. In its latest annual analysis of the economy, India’s Ministry of Finance called for further Chinese investment in India. It has launched a portal to expedite visas for Chinese professionals. Civil aviation ministers from both countries met in September to discuss the resumption of direct passenger flights after they were suspended in 2020. The willingness to see China as both a security threat and an economic boon is the Achilles’ heel of India’s China policy. New Delhi’s dependence on China with respect to components or heavy equipment for industrial supply chains coupled with India’s weak manufacturing sector presents a vulnerability that China can exploit for geopolitical leverage. So far, Indian policymakers have divided national security from economics when it comes to China. It will not be easy to establish India’s economic security in the shadow of its giant northern neighbor. It could help find foreign investment to better develop those sectors in India in which China has the lead, such as in green technology and electric vehicles. An economic security ministry could undertake an audit of supply chains to pinpoint risks and seek alternative suppliers to diversify imports. (Source: Foreign Affairs)

South Korea
November 14 2024 09:10:35  South Korea, the U.S. and Japan yesterday launched their second trilateral multidomain drill in international waters of the East Asian country. The three-day Freedom Edge exercise is taking place in international waters of South Korea's southern island of Jeju. Ships and aircraft are taking part in the dril. (Source: Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey)

North America

United States
November 14, 2024, 11:46 PM  President-elect Trump selected Florida Rep. Gaetz as his choice to serve as attorney general. Woman told House Ethics Committee Gaetz had sex with her when she was 17. Gaetz abruptly resigned from Congress, ending the House Ethics Committee's investigation. (Source: ABC News - U.S.)

South America

Peru
November 14, 2024 at 4:28 a.m. EST  China opens huge port in Peru - a key stop on the new silk route to extend its reach in South America. The megaport opening in the small town of Chancay , which sits 50 miles north of the capital, Lima, Peru will be inaugurated today by Chinese President Xi and his Peruvian counterpart, Boluarte, on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima. The huge port is expected to attract more than $3 billion in investment by creating a direct route across the Pacific Ocean and extend Beijing’s influence in Latin America. It underscores China’s growing clout in a region that once looked primarily to the United States for economic opportunity. The first phase, building a port that will handle only smaller ships, is expected to begin operations this month. The high-tech logistics hub will be exclusively operated by Chinese shipping giant Cosco, which in 2019 invested $1.3 billion to take a 60 percent stake in the project. Chinese state media has estimated the total cost of the finished project to be over $3 billion. Its automated cargo cranes are supplied by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries. Electric driverless trucks made by Chinese companies will be used to handle containers and cargo. The level of Chinese interest and involvement in Chancay has drawn warnings from the United States about Peru potentially being used by Chinese military ships as a foothold in the Americas. Beijing has denied the project is motivated by anything other than commercial interest. Chinese and Peruvian officials have celebrated the project as a transformative opportunity for Peru. President Boluarte has called it a potential “nerve center” joining the continent to Asia, one that could create 8,000 jobs and $4.5 billion in economic activity annually. When completed, the port’s 15 docks will be the first place in South America able to host carrier ships too big to fit through the Panama Canal. Chinese researchers have said the route will cut costs and shorten sailing times by 10 to 20 days, attracting business from other hubs in the region. It could also make Peru an attractive destination for Chinese companies searching for new export markets or even locations to set up factories in the Americas. On a visit to China in June, Boluarte cited Chancay as a reason for Chinese electric car giant BYD to consider establishing an assembly plant in the country. Chancay will join an expanding global network of more than 40 ports under the Belt and Road Initiative, a $1 trillion plan to build transportation and technology infrastructure launched by Xi in 2013. Despite claims of Chancay being a purely commercial venture, Chinese foreign policy experts have written about the project as a geopolitical win for Beijing that will need to be defended from American interference. The Chinese takeover of Chancay has not been without controversy in Peru. The Peruvian port authority tried this year to alter the terms of Cosco’s investment deal, citing an “administrative error” when agreeing to grant the Chinese firm exclusive operating rights over the seaport for 30 years. The lawsuit was dropped in June days before Boluarte traveled to China to meet Xi. Chinese interests in Latin America are fast evolving beyond mining and other extractive industries to include agreements to provide surveillance technology and ground stations for Chinese satellites. “Latin America, and the Global South in general, wants to sell their products to whoever they can, so this sort of fearmongering is unlikely to work,” Dourado, a researcher affiliated with the Center for China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Universidad del Pacífico in Lima said. Xi and Boluarte are also expected to sign an expanded free-trade agreement. China has been Peru’s largest trading partner for a decade. The countries traded $36 billion in goods last year, compared with Peru’s $21 billion trade with the United States. For Beijing, the port promises to bring together a string of existing investments in Peru and neighboring countries. China has ambitions to build a railway line connecting Chancay to Brazil, its largest trading partner in Latin America, and Chinese firms are in the process of taking over electricity distribution for Lima. Chinese investments in the Peruvian mining sector total $11.4 billion. The majority of that is focused on securing access to copper, which is essential to the manufacturing of electronics and clean-energy technologies. With nearly all the world’s copper refining happening in China, the Chancay port will help Beijing improve its access to mines in South America’s second largest producer of raw copper. That choke hold on the supply chain is absolutely critical and dominant. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post - U.S.)

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Europe

Poland
(Wednesday), 13 Nov 2024  US opens the northern section of defence anti-missile shield inaugurated today at the Redzikowo military base in northern Poland, near the Baltic coast. The base at Redzikowo is part of a broader NATO missile shield, called Aegis Ashore, which the military alliance says can intercept short- to intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Other key shield elements include a second site in Romania, US Navy destroyers based in the Spanish port of Rota and an early-warning radar in the town of Kurecik in Turkey. The major base has been in the works since the 2000s about 250km from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. 'Poland seeks to reassure its citizens of NATO’s commitment to their security' following Trump’s presidential election victory. It said the base shows that its military alliance with Washington remains solid, 'whoever is in the White House'. Trump’s past criticisms have unsettled some NATO members, as he pledged that the US under his leadership would not defend countries that fail to invest adequately in defence. Russia had already labelled the base in Poland a threat as far back as 2007, when it was still being planned. NATO says the shield is purely defensive. The system in Poland can only be used against missiles fired from the Middle East and the radar would need a change in direction to intercept projectiles from Russia, a complex procedure entailing a change of policy, military sources told. Polish Defence Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Monday the scope of the shield needed to be expanded, which Warsaw would discuss with NATO and the US. The Kremlin said the deployment of the missile defence system in Poland showed 'American military infrastructure advancing towards our borders' as 'part of an attempt to contain Russia militarily”. Kremlin spokesman Peskov warned today that Russia will take measures to ensure 'parity' in response, but did not specify what that would be. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

Spain
(Wednesday, 13 Nov 2024)  Spain's Civil Protection Agency sent a mass alert to phones in Málaga province after 22:00 local time (21:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening warning of an 'extreme risk of rainfall'. Málaga flood turns street into river. /Video/ (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Wednesday 13 November 2024 16:32, UK  More than 220 people were killed in the country's worst floods in modern history just two weeks ago. New wave of floods hits southern Spain. Spain's national weather service has issued alerts for strong or torrential rains along much of its Mediterranean coast. Authorities have issued a red alert for heavy rain in the Costa del Sol, with areas around Malaga and Granada also subject to warnings that up to 180 millimetres could fall in 12 hours. Thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes in the Costa del Sol as storms are set to bring fresh misery. Some of Malaga's mains streets started flooding this afternoon after the Campanillas river overflowed. People living close to the river were told to leave their homes. Now, people are covering their cars in plastic wrap and anchoring them to lamp posts as part of efforts to prepare for more flooding. Earlier, 3,000 homes were evacuated as a precaution on the banks of the Guadalhorce River. Police closed roads, bus lines across the city were suspended along with some high-speed trains, and parts of Malaga airport were underwater. Staff at the Hospital Clinico were wading through water after the laboratory area flooded. In the tourist resort of Marbella, a waterspout was seen moving for several minutes through the sea just off the coast. Winds of up to 119 kmph and high seas were also predicted for Tarragona, Barcelona and Murcia. National weather office AEMET also placed parts of Catalonia in northeast Spain on a red alert, with areas along the coast in Tarragona at high risk of "very strong to torrential rain". Previously flood-hit areas around Valencia were issued a less severe weather warning prompting some schools to close until Friday. Thousands of workers are still removing mud and debris that has accumulated on the roads and clogged sewage pipes and drains in towns around Valencia after the recent deadly floods. (Source: Sky News – United Kingdom)

European Parliament
(Wednesday), 13 Nov 2024  Following the devastating floods that swept through towns in Valencia and other regions in Spain two weeks ago and have taken at least 223 lives, President Metsola led MEPs in a minute’s silence in honour of the victims. An European Commission statement on the devastating floods in Spain, the "urgent' need to support the victims, to improve preparedness and to fight the climate crisis is added as the first item on today’s agenda. (Source: European Parliament)

Ukraine
Wednesday, November 13, 2024  Ukraine's air force had put the whole country under air raid alert amid Russian missile attacks. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted two incoming cruise missiles and two ballistic missiles from a total of six, and 37 drones from at total of 90 across the country today, as Russia launched multiple attacks, including on Kyiv. (Source: DW - Germany)

North America

United States
Nov 13, 2024, 6:24 PM CET  GOP senators chose Sen. Thune to be the next Senate Majority Leader. He's a top McConnell ally and an occasional Trump critic. Musk and the MAGA online right had pushed for Sen. Scott. (Source: Business Insider - U.S.)

13 November, 2024  US president-elect Trump has selected several loyalists with varying degrees of experience to some of the most crucial positions in his next government. Here’s a look at some of them. (Hegseth; Rubio; Noam; Stefanic, Musk; Ramaswamy) /Video/ (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
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13 November 2024  Trump rolls out his most MAGA picks for new White House term: SpaceX, Twitter and Tesla CEO Musk; US entrepreneur and former Republican presidential hopeful Ramaswamy; Trump senior advisor Wiles; Fox News anchor Hegseth; US Immigration and Customs Enforcement Acting Director Homan; House Republican Conference Chair Representative Stefanik; Representative Ratcliffe; US Representative Waltz; US Senator Rubio; Congressman Zeldin; Political advisor Miller; South Dakota Republican Governor Noem. (Source: RNZ - New Zealand / CNN - U.S.)

November 13, 2024  'Welcome back' - Biden congratulates Trump during Oval Office meeting. /Video/ (Source: Fox News - U.S.)
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Europe

Hungary
November 12, 2024   Becoming a transformative actor on the international stage and shaping the future of the EU ’has always been Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán’s political aim’. This approach emerged back in 2010, with his pursuit of an “Opening to the East” - a policy aimed at economic diversification, including through increased business and friendlier political relations with Russia, Turkey, and China. Orbán’s ambition is to thrust Hungary, at the periphery of transatlantic cooperation, to the heart of European - even global - decisionmaking. This foreign policy agenda is an essential part of his ’nationalist, illiberal, populist’ regime. In NATO, Orbán’s ambition is to boost business deals and make himself heard. Within the EU, he wants to shape the organization’s future, and get it to provide the maximum institutional and financial backup for Hungary’s economic progress while accepting his illiberal rule. For this, it is necessary to weaken the bloc’s ideological consensus and political competencies. Since gaining constitutional power in 2010, he adopted a confrontational posture within the EU to push back against criticism of his country’s ’systemic democratic backsliding and growing autocratization’. Until 2020, however, he played by the EU’s terms. The rebellion attitude, which openly undermines the bloc’s ability to act in unity, is new. It aims to both pressure the European Commission to release some of the frozen EU funds to the Hungarian government, ’and to demonstrate that no important decision can be made without Orbán’. From the very outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Orbán has systematically disrupted European decisionmaking. His positions on geopolitical issues and confrontative comments have become commonplace. In Orbán’s recent interview, given on the morning of the November 7 informal European Council meeting he declared that Hungary has successfully resisted judicial activism from Brussels because it is always prepared to revolt against interference in national actions. He called for rebellion against “the laws and court rulings that are currently in force.” This relates to the European Court of Justice, which has imposed a €200 million ($213 million) fine and further daily penalties of €1 million ($1.1 million) on Hungary for its failure to comply with ’EU asylum rules’. For too long, EU leaders did not respond resolutely enough. Recently, however, they applied conditionality to Hungary’s post-COVID-19 recovery funds and tried to politically isolate Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister, therefore, badly needed Trump to win the U.S. presidential election. Orbán’s people got in good standing with various Republican institutions that may shape the policymaking of the next U.S. administration. Buoyed by Trump’s victory, Orbán could afford to act like a cooperative host of his fellow Europeans last week. In contrast to his combative attitude in previous meetings, at the European Political Community summit and the informal European Council that followed, Orbán appeared moderate and restrained. This is, of course, ’all smokescreens’ to maintain his access to funds - ’a game of dupes that the other EU leaders have indulged Orbán in’, as well, out of weakness and a belief that it is better to maintain even a superficial unity. Behind closed doors, the harmony was less convincing. During a press conference Orbán called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, while President Zelensky stressed that no one could expect Russian President Putin to be generous and asserted that peace cannot be bought by weakness. Zelensky’s comments were directed at both Orbán and Trump. With the latter elected as the next U.S. president, continued support to Ukraine is uncertain. Trump may want peace in Europe to focus his attention on other geopolitical conflicts, ’at the price of Ukraine’s future and Europe’s security’. In this highly sensitive situation, Orbán could become a key interlocutor. He has positioned himself as a “peace builder” since the beginning of the war and now wants reap the rewards of his risky and controversial strategy. A chance to play this role, however symbolic, is one of the advantages Orbán can get from a second Trump administration. But the U.S.-Hungary relationship is not without challenges, even with Trump’s return to the White House. As a member of the single market, Hungary’s prime minister cannot play an individual game with the United States should a potential trade dispute emerge between the Washington and Brussels. Also, there is no guarantee that the upcoming Republican administration will be entirely friendly with Orbán. The words of U.S. Senate Republican leader McConnell should caution against any guarantee of deepening collaborations: “When Chinese state enterprise has said jump, Hungarian officials have asked, how high?" Orbán will continue the lobbying to remain in Trump’s horizon. Should Trump’s transactional instincts prevail in his management of global conflicts, Orbán may gain from it. Nonetheless, while Orbán may be strong, Hungary is deeply integrated in the EU, and its people like being Europeans. The country’s progress and success is far more dependent on the success of the EU than anything else. (Source: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - U.S.)
by Szelényi*, the founding director of the Democracy Institute Leadership Academy at the Central European University.

12.11.2024  "We must continue advancing the green transition while also maintaining our use of natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy," Victor Orbán said during his address at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku. Underlining that Hungary is among the few countries that has been able to enhance its economic performance while cutting emissions in recent years, Orbán said they cannot sacrifice industry or agriculture in this process. "The price of climate change should not be paid by our farmers. Farmers are the backbone of our economy and society," he added. The premier went on to say that the green transition and the fight against climate change should not be done against the business community, "but together with it," stressing the need for clear financial guarantees and significant investment. "Our climate policy should be guided by careful consideration and common sense, not by ideology alarmism or panic. Each should align with the opinion and interest of European citizens," he added. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

Syria
08:03-12 November 2024  The US struck nine targets at two locations in Syria yesterday to hit Iranian-aligned militias that had launched attacks on US personnel over the last 24 hours, US Central Command said. The US has about 900 personnel in Syria to assist partnered forces in conducting missions against isis militants. (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat - headquartered in London, United Kingdom)

Taiwan
12.11.2024  China today held live-fire drills along its southeastern coast and has designated several maritime and air zones as no-go areas in Taiwan Strait. The Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “designated several reserved areas and temporary air restricted areas in the southeastern coastal waters and conducted live-fire exercises,” Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said. It said the drills are being held off the coast of eastern Zhejiang province, and Fuzhou city of Fujian province. Taipei detected at least 20 PLA aircraft around Taiwan, of which 13 crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered the northern, central and southwestern air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Latest data suggests Beijing has increased flying its jets into the ADIZ by 300%. China neither accepts ADIZ nor media line while Taipei has insisted on its independence since 1949. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

North America

United States
12.11.24, 12:05 PM  President-elect Trump yesterday named former Rep. Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency as he continues to build out his future administration with loyal supporters. Trump, in a statement, said Zeldin, who mounted a failed bid for governor of New York in 2022, would “ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions that will be enacted in a way to unleash the power of American businesses, while at the same time maintaining the highest environmental standards, including the cleanest air and water on the planet.” Zeldin, left Congress in 2023. His public appearances both in his own campaigns and on behalf of Trump often had him speaking about issues like the military, national security, antisemitism, U.S-Israel relations, immigration and crime. He was among the Republicans in Congress who voted against certifying the 2020 election results. While in Congress, he did not serve on committees with oversight of environmental policy. Trump often pointed to Zeldin's performance in the 2022 gubernatorial race where the Republican did far better than had been expected against Gov. Hochul. The announcement comes after Trump selected longtime adviser Miller, an immigration hard-liner, to be the deputy chief of policy in his new administration and named Rep. Stefanik as his nominee for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Miller is one of Trump's longest-serving aides, dating back to his first campaign for the White House. He was a senior adviser in Trump's first term and has been a central figure in many of his policy decisions, particularly on immigration, including Trump's move to separate thousands of immigrant families as a deterrence program in 2018. Miller has also helped craft many of Trump's hard-line speeches, and was often the public face of those policies during Trump's first term in office and during his campaigns. Since leaving the White House, Miller has served as the president of America First Legal, an organization of former Trump advisers fashioned as a conservative version of the American Civil Liberties Union, challenging the Biden administration, media companies, universities and others over issues such as freedom of speech and religion and national security. He was also a frequent presence during Trump's campaign this year, traveling aboard his plane and often speaking ahead of Trump during the pre-shows at his rallies. Miller drew large cheers at Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden during the race's final stretch, telling the crowd that, “your salvation is at hand,” after what he cast as "decades of abuse that has been heaped upon the good people of this nation - their jobs looted and stolen from them and shipped to Mexico, Asia and foreign countries. The lives of their loved ones ripped away from them by illegal aliens, criminal gangs and thugs who don't belong in this country.” “We stand here today at a crossroads,” he went on, casting the election as “a choice between betrayal and renewal, between self-destruction and salvation, between the failure of America or the triumph of America.” Because it is not a Cabinet position, the appointment does not need Senate confirmation. (Source: The Telegrapf - India)

12 Now. 2024  President-elect Trump's Republican Party will control both houses of Congress when he takes office in January. Republicans had already secured a majority in the US Senate and they would hold at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives with eight races yet to be called in last Tuesday's election. His power will also be backed by a Supreme Court. With a 63 conservative majority the new Congress convenes on January 3rd before Trump takes office on the 20th. Sources also said yesterday that Trump has selected US senator Rubio to be his secretary of state. Rubio is arguably the most hawkish option on the short list for the Post. In the past he has advocated for a muscular foreign policy to deal with America's geopolitical foes including China Iran and Cuba. Those views have often contradicted Trump who has accused past US presidents of leading America into costly and futile Wars and has pushed for a more restrained foreign policy. However Rubio has softened some of his stances over the last several years to align more closely with Trump. The 53-year-old would be the first Latino to serve as America's top Diplomat. By selecting Rubio, Trump may help consolidate gains with latino voters made in the presidential election last week by sending a clear message that they have a place at the highest levels of his administration. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

November 12, 2024 4:02 am CET  Trump’s stated determination to “stop wars” poses a serious challenge for Bibi. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping Iran’s ayatollahs will live to regret their murder-for-hire plots against U.S. President-elect Trump. Netanyahu believes he now has a once-in-a-generation chance to secure a total victory against Israel’s foes and establish a safe security environment for decades to come. That means continuing the offensive in Gaza to finish Hamas for good, pursuing Hezbollah so that it’s uprooted from Lebanon, as well as getting at the ultimate enemy - Iran. His challenge now is to convince Trump of his grand strategy, and exactly how it can be accomplished without getting the U.S. ensnared in a 'forever war.' Netanyahu also knows Trump still harbors residual distrust toward him. And he and his advisers are well aware of the doubts some in the MAGA camp have about any open-ended adventurism that may risk entangling Washington - which, for example, demolishing Iran’s nuclear facilities would certainly do. These skeptics include Vice President-elect Vance, whose suspicion of foreign entanglements predates his MAGA conversion. It has its origins in his time as a Marine in Iraq, as he became highly disillusioned with America’s ill-fated wars in the region after his tour. Last month, when asked about the Middle East and whether the U.S. should go to war against Iran, Vance warned that U.S. and Israeli interests wouldn’t always coincide: “Our interest very much is in not going to war with Iran. It would be a huge distraction of resources. It would be massively expensive to our country,” he said, suggesting that Israel and Arab countries in the Gulf should provide the counterbalance to Iran. There will be other countervailing pressures on Trump from the Saudis and Emiratis - these countries have no interest in the region being set ablaze. Over the summer, Colby - who some in Washington believe is in the running for deputy defense secretary or possibly deputy national security adviser - said the U.S. should be having a smaller footprint in the Middle East. “It would be a mistake if we fritter away our resources on peripheral conflicts,” he added. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

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Europe

Hungary
11 November 2024 „Exclusive: The Pope has shown backing for Hungary’s so-called "peace deal" between Kyiv and Moscow – while Trump’s election 'puts US aid at risk'. ’Surprising’ alliance of Trump, Hungary’s right-wing prime minister Viktor Orbán and Pope Francis. Hungary’s ambassador to the Vatican has spoken about how Pope Francis has played an important role in supporting a deal that will probably see Mr Trump push for president Zelensky to cede territory to Russia. The Pope, along with Hungary, has called for a ceasefire and talks “to break the cycle” of war and achieve peace. During Trump’s first presidency, Hungarian-American political relations were at their peak, with dialogue and negotiations taking centre stage in resolving conflicts that threaten world security, Mr Habsburg-Lothringen, Hungary’s ambassador to the Vatican said, speaking to The Independent. “Following the decision of the American electorate a few days ago, we really have good hope that Hungarian-American political cooperation will return to its peak: we share similar views on peace, illegal immigration and the protection of families. I believe there is a better chance than ever that peace will finally return to Ukraine after almost a thousand days of war.” “For the last years, Hungary has been fighting a lonely fight for immediate ceasefire and peace in Ukraine. Being a direct neighbour and having a Hungarian minority inside Ukraine gives us a very clear vision. The only ally was the Holy Father Pope Francis, who spoke in the same direction and engaged in peace diplomacy. “With the new President Trump, we have an ally who has clearly stated, even in his speech during election night, that he wanted to end the wars, which also means the one in Ukraine. This fills me with hope.” The Pope recently made a visit to Hungary and has told Mr Habsburg-Lothringen that his affinity to the country came from a group of Hungarian nuns who lived in Argentina after fleeing following the Russian invasion in 1956. The ambassador outlined what Hungary and the Vatican’s position has been on talks. “As long as nobody talks with Russia, a real dialogue doesn’t happen. The Vatican strongly encourages a climate of talking everybody to everybody, and I believe that this would be the step forward. That’s as I said, before Pope Francis and Viktor Orbán both asked for immediate ceasefire and immediate peace negotiations.” You can say a lot of things about Trump, you may even dislike him, but there is one thing that nobody questions: that he will not start a war, Mr Habsburg-Lothringen added. “I see him as a man who hates war, and as a real businessman who thinks that everything will be better if there is no war.” Victor Orbán and Trump are allies. Mr Orbán is seen as being the closest EU leader to Mr Putin, even visiting Moscow over the summer, while he has also been against providing Kyiv with weapons and funds. Having made several trips to visit Mr Trump at his home in Mar-a-Lago, Mr Orbán has gone from being mostly internationally isolated on the war to now being the closest ally to the president-elect in Europe. Now, with their shared view of bringing an early end to the war, he believes the Pope will support a peace deal. Last week at the European Political Community summit, Mr Orbán boasted of how “the world is changing” with Mr Trump re-elected, while renewing his demands for a Ukrainian ceasefire. Mr Zelensky, who was at the summit, noted that the Hungarian prime minister is the one Nato member state leader to oppose Ukraine’s membership of the defence alliance. Since his election less than a week ago, Mr Trump is already reported to have had a telephone conversation with Mr Putin warning him “not to escalate the war” before his inauguration. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)
by Maddox, Political editor

Germany
(Monday), 11 November 2024  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Trump yesterday about working together towards a "return of peace" to Europe, according to Scholz's spokesman Hebestreit. Scholz said he will work with US President-elect Trump. In their first telephone call since Trump won the US election, Scholz offered Trump the opportunity to ’continue the decades of successful cooperation between the governments of both countries’. During the call, Scholz emphasized the importance of continuing to provide Ukraine with support. During his first term as US president, Trump criticized Berlin for ’insufficient military spending’, the country's trade surplus, and ’the German-Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2’. On Sunday evening, Scholz appeared on a talk show on public broadcaster ARD. Scholz pointed out that Germany is now spending 2% of its gross national product on defense. This falls in line with NATO guidelines. The chancellor also made it clear that he expects Trump to adhere to the commitment made by outgoing President Biden ’to station US intermediate-range missiles in Germany’. ’This is an agreement we have made with the US. It is in our mutual interest. So I want to accept it,’ Scholz said. Scholz seemed unfazed about the prospect of future cooperation with Trump, saying you have to take political situations as they come. "My principle is always, if I may say so casually: You dance with those who are in the room. And that also applies to the future president of the US," Scholz said. "I'm never naive, but I'm also a bit unflustered," he added. Scholz is set to face a confidence vote before the end of the year in the Bundestag ahead of a likely snap election in early 2025. Scholz also dismissed recent criticism from Trump supporter and tech billionaire Musk, who mocked the chancellor over the collapse of the ruling coalition in Germany. Musk had written in German on the social media platform X, which he owns: 'Olaf is a fool." ’I don't comment on tech billionaires,’ the chancellor said. "He is not a head of state, even if one sometimes gets the impression that some tech corporations are more powerful than states. When asked if this bothered him, Scholz replied, ’It honors me.’ (Source: DW – Germany / „(AFP, dpa, Reuters)”

11.11.2024  German foreign minister calls on European countries to boost military budget. 'We must recognize that NATO's two percent target will no longer be sufficient in our current situation,' Baerbock said. European allies should increase their military budgets, enhance cooperation among defense industries, and develop joint projects, she said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Russia
November 11, 2024  The Ukrainian military faces a critical morale crisis at the front lines, with as many as 20% of soldiers reportedly deserting their posts amid Russian advances, according to The Economist. The article, citing a source within Kyiv’s general staff, depicts the dire situation unfolding as Ukrainian forces struggle to maintain defence lines against a steady Russian push. Russian troops have reportedly reclaiming nearly 1,146 square kilometres since August, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data derived from DeepState sources. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, in a rare admission of the gravity of the conflict, called the latest Russian offensive “one of the most powerful” since the invasion’s outset. In response to mounting casualties and depleted forces, Kyiv has increased recruitment efforts. The Ukrainian government overhauled its conscription system earlier this year, introducing stricter penalties for draft evasion. Since the escalation of conflict in February 2022, over 1million Ukrainians have been conscripted, ’with a further 160,000 expected in the coming months’, according to MP Goncharenko. However, Ukrainian MP Skorokhod stated last week that the number of deserters has now surpassed 100,000. Russian forces have made significant advances in eastern Donetsk region in recent weeks. In a key battleground, the capture of Vuhledar in early October has allowed Russian forces to press ahead into strategically important areas, securing the town of Selydove last week and now reportedly threatening the critical cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove which serve as logistical strongholds for Ukrainian operations in the region. Both cities are now under threat of encirclement, Their loss would represent tactical blow. On Ukraine’s southeastern front Russian forces have intensified their offensive, making slow but steady gains in the cities of Toretsk and Niu York. In mid-October, Russian forces breached the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal barrier, gaining access to key routes toward Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar. These advances bring Russian forces closer to the critical defence hubs of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka. The southern part of the Donetsk Region has become the most critical sector of the front line. Russian advances are now threatening the town of Velyka Novosilka to the west, and, if they continue, they could eventually reach the eastern borders of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Meanwhile, President Zelenskiy has expressed concern over the lagging delivery of Western support, noting that ’only” 10% of the $61bn in US aid pledged in April has arrived. Zelenskiy stressed Kyiv’s urgent need ’for long-range weapons to combat’ Russian forces, adding that if these delays are not resolved, Ukraine could face the choice of accepting peace under unfavourable terms or continuing the fight with reduced support, especially as the prospect of a Trump presidency on the horizon. Kyiv has repeatedly requested long-range weapons from the US to target Russian military assets deeper inside Russian territory. Russia’s human resources advantage has become evident. Russian President Putin, in a speech in July, noted Ukraine’s challenge in maintaining frontline troops. “Despite the raids, the unending waves of total mobilisation in Ukrainian villages and cities, the current regime finds it increasingly hard to send reinforcements to the frontline,” Putin said, adding that “the country’s manpower is exhausting.” United Kingdom generals are reporting that Russia is intensifying its troops’ assaults as the possibility of ceasefire talks start to manifest themselves. As Russian forces consolidate their position, Moscow continues to call for a settlement that addresses core security issues, including Nato’s Eastern expansion, a key factor in its 2021 security proposal to the West. Nato, however, rejected these terms, reiterating that alliance membership remains outside Moscow’s purview. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Asia

Iraq
07:08-(Monday) 11 November 2024  Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hussein warned on Sunday from Riyadh ahead of the extraordinary Arab-Islamic summit today, that the risk of the regional conflict expanding remains high because Israel’s war on Gaza and Lebanon is ongoing. The persistence of the situation means other wars could erupt in the region, which could threaten regional and international peace, he told today. “Indeed, the war on Gaza led to the war on Lebanon, and now, the continuation of these wars, will lead to others,” he stated. The conflict is obviously a clash between Iran and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Iraq’s location puts it within the radius of this conflict and the more attacks and counterattacks between Iran and Israel risk dragging Iraq into the war, he said. A ministerial meeting was held on Sunday ahead of the extraordinary summit. Hussein said officials expressed their solidarity with the Palestinian and Lebanese people. They condemned the ongoing Israeli war against them, adding that Monday’s summit will address several issues, including continuing support to the Palestinian and Lebanese people and searching for options to end the war. The FM underscored the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, the recognition of their own independent state and its full membership at the United Nations. Hussein stressed that the summit is necessary given the dangers the region is experiencing, thanking Saudi Arabia for hosting it. The Iraqi government has prioritized protecting the country from any attack and keeping it out of the war, Hussein added. Iraq is in contact with various countries to that end. Furthermore, he said contacts were ongoing with Iran over the conflict. “Iran was very clear when it was confronted with claims that it was trying to exploit Iraqi territories to attack Israel. It categorically rejected the allegations and said Iraqi territory was not used for any attack,” Hussein revealed, adding that this message was conveyed by Tehran to Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani. Iran has vowed that Iraqi territory will not be used to attack Israel, he remarked. Iraq, along with several Arab and Islamic countries, has focused on contacting various other countries, especially those with strong ties with Netanyahu to pressure him to agree to a ceasefire. Baghdad is working tirelessly to prepare for the Arab League summit in May. (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat - headquartered in London, U.K.)

Israel
11.11.24, 11:30 AM  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time admitted that Israel was behind the pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah in September that left at least 39 people dead and more than 3,000 injured across Lebanon and parts of Syria on September 16 - 17. The pager operation and the elimination of (Hezbollah leader) Nasrallah were carried out despite the opposition of senior officials in the defence establishment and those responsible for them in the political echelon,’ The Times of Israel newspaper quoted Netanyahu as saying. Netanyahu's remarks came during Sunday’s weekly Cabinet meeting, according to Hebrew media reports. Netanyahu's statement is being interpreted in the context of his firing of Defence Minister Gallant on November 5 and efforts to shore up personal popularity by taking credit for war successes. Netanyahu and Gallant have clashed repeatedly over the course of their time in government together. Netanyahu also tried to get rid of him in March 2023 as well, but had to reinstate him due to massive public protests. He was the defence minister when Hamas committed its deadly terror assault in southern Israel on October 7 last year and had so far carried out his duties in the subsequent war in the Gaza Strip, the fighting on the northern border, and the ground operation in southern Lebanon. In a press conference on Tuesday, Nov. 5, Gallant said that he was fired because of differences on the issue of the need to draft ultra-orthodox men in the Israel Defence Forces, the imperative to bring back the hostages from Gaza, and the need for establishing a state commission of inquiry to look into the October 7 Hamas terror attack and the ensuing war. Netanyahu has resisted taking responsibility for the country’s security oversights, blaming Israel’s security forces for the failure to foresee Hamas’ October 7 massacre. He has also ducked calls for a public commission of inquiry to be constituted into events leading up to it. (Source: The Telegraph – India)

Taiwan
Nov 11, 2024  The 'unofficial” partnership under Trump launched an economic partnership dialogue while also lifting decadeslong restrictions on contact between U.S. and Taiwanese officials. He also substantially boosted the provision of weapons to the island, with military sales increasing from $14 billion during the eight years of  Obama’s presidency to more than $18 billion under Trump’s first four years. Yet Trump’s recent remarks suggest he has cooled on Taiwan. The president-elect's skepticism over defending the island, accusations of chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) 'stealing” American jobs and calls on Taipei to further hike military spending suggest U.S. support may likely come at a higher price this time around and be decided on a case-by-case basis. Trump is likely to focus more on bilateral relationships than multilateral groupings. The 78-year-old Republican is widely expected to focus on policies that serve U.S. economic interests, rather than providing support based on more enduring considerations. One of the more likely implications of his return, experts say, is U.S. President-elect Trump’s call for Taiwan to spend more on its own defense. The president-elect has called on the democratic island to raise expenditures from around 2.5% to 10% of its gross domestic product. Reports have emerged about informal discussions being held with the Trump team about Taiwan buying several big-ticket military items, including Aegis naval combat systems and potentially even advanced F-35 fighters. But this will require first that Taiwan reaches internal clarity over what an optimal defense strategy looks like. Some Taiwanese military experts argue that the island should rely less on large, expensive platforms and focus more on the growing asymmetric capabilities offered by cheaper drones and autonomous systems. President Lai will have a difficult time substantially boosting military spending after his Democratic Progressive Party - which nearly doubled outlays over the past decade - lost its parliamentary majority in January. The opposition Kuomintang and the Taiwan People's Party have since been blocking passage of even minor increases in the defense budget. Another way Trump could exert pressure on Taiwan would be to slow down or halt military aid, which some estimate has amounted to $900 million under Biden since 2022, forcing Taipei to pay more for U.S. military hardware. The question is whether Trump could get away with such a move, given that the U.S. is legally bound to provide the island with defensive weapons. His complaints about its semiconductor dominance, may herald a tenser relationship. There are too many variables to predict with any accuracy how things will play out, but there is plenty of uncertainty and risk. Trump could try to pressure TSMC by potentially rolling back some of the benefits offered by Biden’s CHIPS Act, which has sought to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. North America is TSMC's biggest market, but experts say the company should be able to minimize the potential impact of tariffs by diversifying production, including through its majority-owned subsidiary in Kumamoto Prefecture. Is Trump’s real intent to leverage the security partnership with Taiwan to draw in more semiconductor investment to the U.S? TMSC's first fab in Arizona is set to begin mass production in the first quarter of 2025, but Trump has already threatened to renegotiate the terms and impose tariffs on foreign chipmakers. Washington could still demand that Taipei expand imports of American good and services, particularly given the latter's trade surplus with the U.S. Much will hinge on who he decides to surround himself with, as he begins to pick Cabinet members and top advisers. The Pentagon or Congress could modify or even alter things, bringing in a degree of continuity. Congress remains aligned on the need to deter China and increase long-term support for Taiwan. There are key geopolitical factors behind this alignment, including the island’s critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain and its strategic and geographic importance in Washington’s rivalry with China. While no other country is willing or capable of supplanting the U.S. as Taiwan’s security guarantor, experts say the mere possibility of Washington turning inward or growing more unpredictable should be seen in Taipei as an opportunity to hedge by further deepening ties with other countries - to try and continue to develop Taiwan’s ties with like-minded nations, such as Japan and the European bloc, for instance through parliamentary diplomacy ties. (Source: The Japan Times)

North America

United States
November 11, 2024 AT 1:00AM  'President Biden should resign'- Harris becomes the 47th president. ’The benefits are many’. The U.S. will finally get a female president, breaking a Boston Red Sox-style curse that more than superstition would truly make it easier for the next woman who pursues the office. It would inspire the countless little girls, especially those of color, who were told they could reach for those heights, only to be heartbreakingly told never mind.' For Democrats looking for even a small opportunity to yank Trump’s chain', they could chortle at his having to revise his next presidential number to 48, as well as sharing the Jan. 20 ride to the Capitol with a President Harris. Author and podcast host Krakauer proffered the same idea back in August, just after Biden dropped out of the race, in The Hill. The Democrats missed that opportunity, but it’s not too late to change. It’s a small way of giving all voters the candidate they chose. It does have one complication. Congressional never-Trumpers looking to serve him a taste of his own Jan. 6 tactics could thwart 'Trump’s certification in the Electoral College by delaying or neglecting to confirm a new vice president’. One would be quickly appointed and confirmed. The obvious choice is Cheney. You’d have all-female leadership of ’the most powerful nation on Earth’. That’s what Trump would face on the Capitol steps when he comes for his swearing-in: a dais that would include a Black current and former president, and one of them South Asian, a Jewish First Gentleman, a Black former First Lady, a South Asian incoming Second Lady, and the first father and daughter vice presidential duo. A reflection of America if there ever was one. 'President Harris of equal stature as her successor would offer a glimpse of Biden’s Rose Garden vision, where “we see each other not as adversaries but as fellow Americans.” Understandably, Democrats aren’t looking forward to Jan. 20, and even that spectacle wouldn’t prevent whatever’s in store afterward. (Source: The Minnesota Star Tribune - U.S.)
by Washington, a producer-host for Wisconsin Public Radio and a former editor-in-chief of the Duluth News Tribune.

(Monday), 11 November 2024  Yesterday the Washington Post reported that US President-elect Trump has spoken with Russian President Putin about ending the war in Ukraine in a phone call. and that Trump had reminded Putin of the sizable US military presence in Europe. It also reported that Trump was keen to have further conversations to talk about "the resolution" of the war soon. The call was reported to have taken place from Trump's Mar-a-lago estate on Thursday. Moscow spokesman Peskov said yesterday that "the signals are positive... At least he's talking about peace, and not about confrontation." The Biden administration, which will remain in charge until Trump's inauguration on January 20, has said it will send Ukraine as much aid as possible before Biden leaves office. On Sunday, Biden's National Security Advisor, Sullivan, said the White House aims ’to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield so that it is ultimately in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table." Sullivan also confirmed Biden has invited Trump to come to the White House for talks on Wednesday. /+Video */ (Source: DW – Germany / „(AFP, dpa, Reuters")
* Trump's win, German government crisis threaten Ukraine aid'.

November 11, 2024  Trump was trying to fuse economic concerns with cultural biases, Harris was focused on allowing women access to abortion and gay rights/trans rights. Trump’s campaign took advantage of that orientation. They spent over $17 million on 30,000 TV ads replaying Harris’ past talks supporting access to gender-affirming healthcare for transgender individuals. Audiences of NFL and college football broadcasts were targeted to reach a predominantly male audience in the swing states. Harris did not emphasize running as a woman. Instead, she reached out to women through the abortion issue. The Trump campaign officials created a “boys vs. girls election.” Their campaign reinforced the values of adhering to traditional gender roles. Trump appeared alongside former Fox News host Carlson, who popularized the notion that the country needed Trump to be a “dad” who would deliver a 'spanking.” The Republicans’ appeal to men was far more successful than the Democrats’ appeal to women. white women (52%) voted for Trump. Men turned out for Trump by 16 points more than for Harris. Hispanic men backed Trump over Harris 54% to 44%. Harris won 53% of female voters this year, while Biden won 55% in 2020. The Republican Party, despite Trump declaring that he loves women, will now have to deliver a better economic future for women and their daughters. (Source: CounterPunch - a left-wing magazine based in the United States)
by Licata, author of Becoming A Citizen Activist has served 5 terms on the Seattle City Council, named progressive municipal official of the year by The Nation, founding board chair of Local Progress, a national network of 1,000 progressive municipal officials.

November 11, 2024  ’A new wave of movements against Trumpism is coming’. In 2016, Trump’s election itself’ served as a trigger event’. Trump being able to take office ’in spite of his overt misogyny’ led women to mobilize in record-breaking numbers. A call to action went out immediately after the election, and on January 21, 2017, the day after Trump’s inauguration, upwards of four million people rallied in Women’s March events, spread across every state in the nation. A wide range of groups, from the liberal ACLU to the more radical Democratic Socialists of America, saw membership and donations surge as concerned progressives braced for what was expected to come from Trump’s administration. New groups emerged, such as Indivisible, which began as a viral Google Doc about how to confront elected officials and compel them to resist the Trump administration. It then quickly grew into an organization with more than 4,000 affiliated local groups by 2021. Following his inauguration, Trump faced record-low approval ratings. Movements not only rallied large numbers of people, but also carried forward popular energy by organizing around a positive vision for change. The model offered by Sanders was very important. In 2016, the senator was nevertheless vital in pointing to a model of how Trumpism could be combated with a ’progressive’ populist vision, rather than a retreat to the center and the adoption of “Republican-lite” versions of policy. ’Groups motivated to build active support for such a vision - which included progressive unions, community organizations investing in electoral work in a more concerted way than ever before, and new or re-energized formations such as the Democratic Socialists of America, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Working Families Party and the Poor People’s Campaign - entered into contests that gave rise to the Squad at the federal level, as well as an unprecedented number of movement champions taking office locally. Activism during Trump’s first term was able to create a sense of an administration that was embattled and mired in controversy, rather than one carrying out a popular mandate. The Sunrise Movement, another group that contributed to this push, exploded onto the scene in 2018, playing a key role in putting the Green New Deal at the center of policy debate and, along with Fridays for Future, revitalizing climate activism. Trigger events around police violence ignited a new round of Black Lives Matter protests’. While conservatives passed a major tax law that favored the rich, they were unable to realize other top goals such as the repeal of Obamacare. With the 2018 midterms, movements played a significant role in creating one of the most dramatic swings in recent electoral history, propelling a wave that both swept Democrats into power in many states and deprived Republicans of control of the U.S. Congress, closing their window of maximum legislative power. This time around, the mood is different. As the New York Times described it, there is a "stunned, quiet and somber feeling," sometimes accompanied by resignation, rather than an immediate impulse to rise up in resistance. That said, established progressive groups that have created space for members to gather to make sense of the electoral outcome and plan a response, organized a mass call two days after the election by a coalition of 200 groups - including the Working Families Party, MoveOn, United We Dream and Movement for Black Lives Action. It drew well in excess of 100,000 people, with thousands signing up for follow-up community gatherings. ’There will be more opportunities to come’ as Trump begins implementing his agenda. Although he won a commanding electoral victory, a significant portion of his gains can be attributed to rejection of the status quo and a desire on the part of voters to sweep out a broken political establishment. On a policy level, Trump is often incoherent. Although he presents himself as a champion of those left behind, 'he cannot deliver' for working people. Instead, many of the things that he will attempt may prove to be deeply unpopular, from tax cuts for the wealthy and ’attacks on women’s rights’, to unconstitutional power grabs and cuts to social services or public benefits. Should Trump begin to carry out the program of mass deportations that he has promised, resulting in separated families and shattered communities, conservatives could quickly find that their overreach has sparked backlash and defiance - not only from defenders of human rights but even from business people alarmed at the economic disruption. In late 2005, when the Republican majority in the House pushed through a piece of anti-immigrant legislation known as the Sensenbrenner Bill - a measure which, among other impacts, would have created penalties for providing humanitarian services to undocumented immigrants - it gave rise to a series of massive immigrant rights protests in the months that followed. Hundreds of thousands marched in 2006, filling the downtowns of major cities, flooding public squares. These actions galvanized the Latino vote and had lasting impacts in multiple election cycles that followed. Likewise, in the early days of Trump’s first term, his administration’s “Muslim ban” prompted rallies and civil disobedience at airports around the country. While the ban was being challenged in court, the actions served as major public flashpoints, both bolstering local groups and giving rise to national formations such as #NeverAgainAction, while also prompting cities to make vows to protect migrants. Looking forward, Trump will trigger outrage. We can expect a new wave of movements to arise which must be ready to capitalize on and extend the opportunities that Trump’s policies create. When mass protests erupted in Trump’s first term, there were a plethora of voices condemning them as pointless and even counterproductive, „mass therapy” for participants. In fact, people newly activated by the march became part of many subsequent efforts, and the following year the mobilization fed directly into the #MeToo movement, which erupted after another trigger event - namely, publicity that shed light on the sexual abuses perpetrated by Hollywood mogul Weinstein. MeToo have far-reaching implications for policy, in the legal system, and significantly affected voting patterns in 2018 and 2020. Social movements alone have the potential to produce ’a response to Trump’ that both invites mass participation and that is connected to a broader vision for change. „The alternative - relying on legal cases or other insider challenges to the administration’s policies, hoping that politicians will save us, or relying on Democrats, by themselves, to not cave or conciliate themselves to Trumpism — is a recipe for defeat and demobilization". This time around, ’our goal is to win over a majority of Americans’. Movements should not be afraid to engage in polarizing protest, but they should be mindful of the challenge of producing positive polarization that reaches out to include more people in the fight for justice, while minimizing negative polarization that pushes away potential supporters. Crucial to this is always seeking to expand the coalition of allies, engage in political education to bring in newcomers, and ’not accept the myth’ of the righteous few, or the idea that "the path to victory is through demanding ever-greater levels of moral purity among those we associate with", even if that means ever-greater insularity. The day after the election, Sunrise tweeted: 'Trump loves corporations even more than Democrats do, but he ran an anti-establishment campaign that gave an answer to people’s desire for change.” As social movements respond to outrage over Trump’s policies and tie their actions to a real agenda for transformative change, 'they puncture the pretense that he offers any sort of real alternative to a democracy ruled by elites and an economy designed to serve the wealthy'. 'We can stop him, and we must. But it’s going to take many thousands of people taking to the streets and preparing to strike. And it’s going to take mass movements putting out a better vision for our country than Trumpism and proving that we can make it happen,’ Sunrise added. There is no better antidote to hopelessness than action in community. Social movements provide a unique mechanism for responding, creating common identity and purpose between strangers and allowing genuine, collective participation in building a better democracy. If we are to make it together through Trump’s second presidency and emerge in its aftermath to create ’the world we need’, this may be our greatest hope. ’Indeed, it may be our only one".
(Source: CounterPunch - a left-wing magazine based in the United States)
by the Englers

.4 11 11 20:23

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Europe

Germany
(Sunday), 10/11/2024 - 23:07  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose coalition collapsed on Wednesday, said today that he would be ready to call a vote of confidence in parliament before Christmas, a move that would pave the way for snap elections. Scholz’s political rivals have threatened to block his minority government from passing laws unless he immediately seeks a confidence vote. (Source: France 24 / AFP - France)

Spain
10 November 2024 “Solo el pueblo salva el pueblo!” (Only the people save the people). Yesterday. thousands marched in Spanish cities, including Madrid and Alicante. The Valencia regional authorities put the turnout in the regional capital at 130,000. There is anger over what critics say was the slow response of the authorities in the aftermath of the deadly flash floods that affected around 80 towns and cities in the region. Last month’s floods killed at least 220 people, 212 of them were killed in the Valencia region. As beleaguered residents waited for official help to arrive, many local people took matters into their own hands, turning out in large numbers to start the clean-up themselves. Some protesters had harsh words for regional president Mazon, 50, a lawyer who is a member of the right-wing opposition Popular Party. Mazon was among the senior figures pelted with mud by angry protesters last Sunday - along with Felipe VI and Queen Letizia of Spain - as they visited the flood-hit region. There is anger too over what critics say was the slow response of the authorities in the aftermath of the deadly flash floods. The central government shared the blame - some protesters shouted 'Murderers! Murderers!' and some carried placards denouncing Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Local people are furious about the lack of warning, official alerts for the floods landed on people’s phones when cars were already being washed away. (Source: Malay Mail - Malaysia / AFP - France)

Russia
10 November 2024  Russia's defence ministry said it intercepted 84 Ukrainian drones over six regions, including some approaching Moscow, which forced flights to be diverted from three of the capital's major airports. The Ukrainian air force said 62 of Russia's Iranian-made drones were shot down, while 67 were "lost". (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

10.11.2024  Russian President Putin signed a law on the ratification of the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between Russia and North Korea, signed in Pyongyang on June 19, state news agency TASS said yesterday. The treaty pledges mutual defense assistance, commits to immediate military assistance should either nation face armed attack, in line with Article 51 of UN Charter, which recognizes the right to individual and collective self-defense. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

Yemen
(Sunday) 06:27-10 November 2024  The United States and Britain launched raids on the Yemeni capital Sanaa, the Amran governorate and other areas, Al Masirah TV, the main television news outlet run by the Houthi movement, reported today. Iran-aligned Houthi militants have launched attacks on international shipping near Yemen since November last year, 'in solidarity with the Palestinians in Israel's war with Hamas'. (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat - Headquarters London)

Taiwan
Nov 10, 2024  The U.S. Department of Commerce sent a letter to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) imposing export restrictions - to halt shipments - on certain sophisticated chips, of 7 nanometer or more advanced designs, destined for China that power AI accelerator and graphics processing units (GPU) starting tomorrow. The U.S. order, which is being reported for the first time, comes just weeks after TSMC notified the Commerce Department that one of its chips had been found in a Huawei AI processor. Research firm Tech Insights had taken the product apart, revealing the TSMC chip, an apparent violation of export controls. Huawei, at the center of the U.S. action, is on a restricted trade list, which requires suppliers to obtain licenses to ship any goods or technology to the company. Any license that could aid Huawei's AI efforts would likely be denied. TSMC suspended shipments to China-based chip designer Sophgo after its chip matched the one found on the Huawei AI processor, sources said last month. The Commerce Department communication - known as an "is informed" letter - allows the U.S. to bypass lengthy rule-writing processes to quickly impose new licensing requirements on specific companies. The action comes as both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns about the inadequacy of export controls on China and the Commerce Department's enforcement of them. In 2022, the Commerce Department sent is-informed letters to Nvidia and AMD restricting their ability to export top AI-related chips to China, and to chip equipment makers like Lam Research, Applied Materials and KLA to restrict tools to make advanced chips to China. The restrictions in those letters were later turned into rules that apply to companies beyond them. The U.S. has been delayed in updating rules on tech exports to China. As Reuters reported in July, the Biden administration drafted new rules on some foreign exports of chipmaking equipment and planned to add about 120 Chinese companies to the Commerce Department's restricted entity list, including chipmaking factories, toolmakers, and related companies. But despite plans for an August release, and later tentative target dates for publication, the rules still have not been issued. (Source: The Japan Times - Japan)

North America

United States
November 10, 2024 4:02 pm CET  The United States president-elect's eldest son shared on Instagram a clip posted by former Republican vice presidential candidate Palin which read "POV [point of view]: You're 38 days from losing your allowance" over a video of President Zelenskyy. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

(10 November 2024)  Former UN ambassador Haley, ex-Secretary of State Pompeo will not join Cabinet which is currently in formation, said Trump on his Truth Social media platform yesterday, before adding his appreciation for their service to the country. Haley announced her support for Trump after she withdrew from the presidential race. She served as UN envoy from 2017 to 2018. Pompeo was the head of the CIA from 2017 to 2018 before he served as Secretary of State until 2021. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

10.11.24, 09:30 AM  US President-elect has won Arizona, defeating Harris in all seven battleground states: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. The victory in Arizona took Trump's electoral college tally to 312 against 226 of Vice President Harris. Arizona holds 11 electoral college votes. The Republican Party has regained control of the Senate and is all set to retain a majority in the House of Representatives. Currently, the party has 52 seats in the Senate and the Democrats have 47. In the House, Republicans have so far won 216 seats against 209 of the Democrats. The majority mark is 218. (Source: The Telegraph - India)

10/11/2024  Retaliatory tariffs on the United States caused more than $27 billion in US agricultural export losses from mid-2018 to late-2019, the Department of Agriculture (USDA) found. China accounted for around 95 percent of value lost. Since 2018 China has reduced its reliance on American agriculture products. Soybeans and corn will again be 'prime targets for tariffs' in a potential trade dispute. Both commodities account for about one-fourth of the country's agriculture export value. The USDA estimates agriculture and related industries contributed a 5.6 percent share to GDP in 2023, while direct on-farm employment made up 2.6 million jobs as of recent years. On the campaign trail, Trump warned that the United States should be careful with trade policy, especially when it comes to countries that are major buyers of US agriculture. There is no replacing the size of the Chinese market. Without foreign buyers like China to absorb excess farm production, the market becomes oversaturated, in turn driving down prices and farmer incomes. Brazil and Argentina, meanwhile, are expected to gain global market share with higher exports. (Source: France 24 / AFP - France)

. 4 11 10 12:36

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Europe

The Netherlands
Saturday, 9 November 2024, 3:34  King Willem-Alexander released a statement on 8 November after Israelis in Amsterdam for a soccer match were brutally attacked after a match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and the Dutch team Ajax. “I just spoke to President Herzog about the events last night in Amsterdam. I told him how shocked my wife and I are by the violence against Israeli supporters who are guests in our country. We cannot turn a blind eye to anti-Semitic behaviour in our streets. Our history has taught us how intimidation goes from bad to worse, with horrific consequences. Jews must feel safe in the Netherlands, everywhere and at all times. We put our arms around them and will not let them go,” the King revealed in the statement. During his call with the President, he told him: 'We failed the Jewish community of the Netherlands during World War II, and last night we failed again.' Israel sent government planes to evacuate the Israelis from the Netherlands after the attack in which five people were hospitalised and another 20-30 people were injured. Dutch police arrested at least 62 people. (Source: Royal Central)

Russia
(Saturday), November 09, 2024 10:14 PM  Russia and the U.S. have had contact on the subject of the war in Ukraine via "closed channels" at the military and political levels, according to a top Russian foreign relations official. "As for the situation in Ukraine, the exchange of signals via closed channels is periodically carried out," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said in an interview with the Interfax news service published today. "This is done with varying degrees of intensity depending on the need, but all of this is in working order." "It cannot be said that the communication lines are cut off and that there is no dial tone," he said. His comments underscore that Washington and Moscow maintain at least some interaction centered around Russia's almost three-year-long war in Ukraine, even as relations between the two countries are at their lowest ebb since the end of the Cold War. One of the few remaining areas of diplomatic cooperation has been prisoner exchanges. Ryabkov said that topic remains on the agenda for relations between Russia and the U.S. "The last exchange showed that we can find effective solutions to even the most complex, complicated, multifaceted, problematic situations," Ryabkov said. "But there remains no clarity" for how that will work or the schedule for such an exchange going forward. Ryabkov reiterated that diplomatic relations with the U.S. could still be completely severed if Russia's frozen assets are confiscated, or if the war in Ukraine escalates. The diplomat also said there was currently no basis to resume negotiations on strategic stability or arms control. On U.S. President-elect Trump's promises to quickly end the war in Ukraine, Ryabkov said they amounted to campaign rhetoric. Still, Moscow is ready to listen to the Republican's proposals to stop the conflict, he said, echoing an earlier statement from Russian President Putin. On Thursday, Putin congratulated Trump on his win in the U.S. presidential election, "and said he was ready to hold discussions with the incoming American leader". He gave no indication that he's ready to make concessions to secure an end to the war he started in February 2022. Putin has repeatedly said he's willing to hold talks, while insisting that any negotiations take account of the realities on the ground since his forces invaded Ukraine and occupied large swathes of the country's south and east. (Source: The Herald - South Carolina , U.S.)

Europe
November 9, 2024  ’Deeply concerning.’ Many of Europe’s leaders may have been regretting their previous criticisms of Trump, from Tusk to Lammy, the ’bloc’ ’s liberals rushed to offer their stiff congratulations to the newly anointed President-elect. Meanwhile, the leaders of Italy and Hungary ’raced to kiss the ring of America’s godfather of populism. ’Yet if there is one thing that unites Trump sycophants and sceptics in Europe, it’s the desire to boost European defence spending and security cooperation’. In a nervy display of Franco-German solidarity, the leaders of France and Germany announced that they would work to build ’a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this context, with an emphasis on enhancing European defence’. In Britain, there have been calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to draw closer to Europe on security, deepening a Brexit betrayal initiated by Boris Johnson. ’For liberals, strengthening the EU and Nato will insure against Trump either withdrawing from the defence alignment - whose European members he views as parasitical free-riders - or giving up on the Ukraine war effort. ’For populists, greater defence spending is an act of fealty, symbolising their devotion to Trump’s new world order. „Either way, Europeans would be mistaken to respond to Trump 2.0 by doubling down either on the transatlantic alliance or European integration. What Trump’s victory shows is that the globalist strategy of pursuing transnational integration against the wishes of voters has failed. With his America First agenda, the President-elect has now bet twice on America’s voters over its globalist elites - and won bothtimes. In light of this, Europe’s leaders would commit a grave error in choosing Nato over their own people”. „There was once a time when European economic and security integration may have had a strategic rationale: in the post-Cold War unipolar world, globalisation was underpinned by American hegemony and economic strength. Back then, American globalism provided the cover for European integration, allowing Europe’s elites to detach themselves from their voters. Workers were promised all the glories of globalisation in return for retreating from politics into lives of cosy consumption. This process opened up the void between citizens and political elites that has bedevilled European states ever since”. That world is now long gone. The high-tide of economic globalisation has receded, and political globalism is ebbing with it. Today, China is the industrial workshop of the world, and America is no longer its hegemon. This means that „further European or transatlantic integration through Nato has become a losing strategy”. Rather than uniting against Trump or sucking up to him, „Europe should seek to replicate his domestic political model. As Trump did in the US, European nations should build electoral coalitions for national renewal, and use this as a basis to forge new international relationships in place of the old transnational ones”. There are plenty of reasons to avoid further European integration, whether it’s via the EU or Nato, but several stand out. Trump’s foreign policy focus will be on China and the Asia-Pacific more than Europe, which will increasingly take second place in Washington’s political calculations. „A push to further European integration in response to US strategic retreat from Europe will not strengthen the Continent. Quite the opposite: it will bolster the transnational structures that weaken the nations of Europe”. The EU functions by leaching power from the nation-state without suborning it to any greater political authority. With no institutional core, the EU functions as a political pinball machine, ricocheting responsibility from one supranational agency to another, from one country to another. This structure admittedly worked for a time, but only with the US hovering in the background, throughout the era of unipolar globalisation. Today, with Trump looking east, America will be less willing to lend a hand. „Nor will strengthening Nato be of much use in Trump World, as this will only reinforce Europe’s geopolitical divide - from which the US ultimately profits. Just consider the war in Ukraine. As long as the EU and Russia are at odds, the EU will remain dependent on importing more expensive US liquid natural gas, which will act as a drag on European industry and growth. Meanwhile, Russia will remain focused on supplying energy markets outside of Europe, relying ever more heavily on Chinese imports to supply its industrial equipment. That is a world that favours Chinese and American firms over European ones”. „If Trump’s foreign policy follows the direction of his first administration, then we can expect a renewed focus on building a more transactional international order. Bilateral bargaining and regional orders are more likely than starry-eyed globalist compacts. To bargain effectively in such a world, European nations must develop a clear sense of their own national interests. And identifying those national interests means looking inward, not outward. This means turning away from the faded promises of globalism”. „For this reason, renewed calls for transnational integration - whether of the European or Atlantic variety - miss the mark. The alarmed response of European liberals to Trump’s victory reveals a fear not only of Trump, but of their own voters. The reason they fear Trump is because they know that he has something they lack: national democratic legitimacy, built on the wishes of the marginalised and the politically excluded. Europe’s liberal elite feel trapped between a mercurial Trump and their own left-behind ’deplorables’„. „By contrast, Europe’s populists have embraced Trump as the leader of their global movement. Yet this is also ill-advised. Rather than turning to Washington for leadership, populist leaders would be better off learning from the Trump playbook: appealing to their fellow citizens rather than parading around with Nato banners or jockeying for international position. This is the paradox of Trump World: the only way to build a new era of international cooperation is to start from within, through a project of national renewal”. (Source: UnHerd - United Kingdom)
by Cunliffe an Associate Professor of International Relations at the Institute of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London; author or editor of eight books, as well as a co-author of Taking Control: Sovereignty and Democracy After Brexit (2023).

Asia

Iran
Nov 9, 2024, 10:52 AM  On Oct 14, 2024, the European Union approved new sanctions against three Iranian airlines over alleged transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia for use in the Ukraine war. The sanctions have left a direct impact on air transportation, creating problems for the import and supply of medicines and medical equipment. Using special air corridors, expanding cooperation with international companies and support of domestic production are among the solutions being pursued to deal with these challenge. (Source: IRNA - Iran)

Lebanon
November 9, 2024 11:13 PM GMT+1  Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon over the last day have killed at least 40 people including several children, Lebanese authorities said today, after heavy Israeli bombardment pounded the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut overnight. At least seven people were killed in the coastal city of Tyre late yesterday. At least 20 more people were killed in Israeli strikes on Saturday across the eastern plains around the city of Baalbek. The Lebanese health ministry said Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,136 people and wounded 13,979 in Lebanon over the last year. The toll includes 619 women and 194 children. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group announced more than 20 operations today, as well as one that it said fighters carried out the previous day against a military factory south of Tel Aviv. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

South Korea
5:50 AM CET, (Saturday), November 9, 2024  South Korea’s military said North Korea disrupted GPS signals from border areas for the second-straight day today, affecting an unspecified number of flights and vessel operations. GPS interference can endanger commercial airlines flying in poor visibility, and it is a violation of international conventions on navigational safety. In 2024, North Korean trash balloons halted the airport’s runway operations 12 different times for a total of 265 minutes. North Korea’s GPS signal disruptions and balloon campaigns highlight the vulnerability of South Korea’s Incheon International Airport, its main transportation gateway. The airport, which carries 56 million people and 3.6 million tons of cargo annually, is less than 100 kilometers from North Korea. No major aviation incidents have resulted to date. (Source: Associated Press - U.S.)

Qatar
09.11.2024  Qatar says Hamas 'no longer welcome' in Gulf state. US Republicans sent letter to Biden administration to reverse policy on Qatar. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

North America

United States
November 9, 2024  ’Trump talked on the campaign trail about using military forces to quell protests in cities and said that one of his first actions upon entering the White House again would be to begin mass deportations of illegal immigrants. ’During his campaign he characterized protesters as enemies from within who may have to be handled by the National Guard or military. He later also included his Democratic critics, such as former House Speaker Pelosi and Rep. Schiff, as the enemy from within and somehow more dangerous than China or Russia. ’Of particular concern is Trump issuing an unlawful order’.’America’s military leaders are engaging in informal discussions about how they would respond 'if’ President-elect Trump issued orders to use active-duty U.S. troops against civilians and aid his mass deportation plans, according to a report’. American troops could be deployed in cities to help carry out Trump’s plan for mass deportations, a former defense official told. Local law enforcement departments don’t have the manpower, they don’t have the helicopters, the trucks, the expeditionary capabilities that the military brings, the official said. But a decision to send active-duty troops into American cities must be looked at seriously. It is a big deal, the official said. But it’s the only way to address issues at scale. (Source: dnyuz – (Armenia ? / International Business Times – U.S.)

09.11.2024  As Americans headed to polls on election day, social media was already rife with unfounded claims of voter fraud, stoking doubts about election’s legitimacy. Online claims of election fraud surge, then subside as Trump wins. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

(Saturday), 09 November 2024 12:32pm GMT  Yesterday, the Department of Justice revealed charges against an Afghan immigrant to the US, Shakeri, who was allegedly tasked by the The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to murder the then US presidential candidate. "Prior to the recent Israeli response to Iran’s October missile attacks on its territory, Biden pronounced targeting of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities off-limits". Conversely, Trump said that Israel should 'hit the nuclear first and worry about everything else later'. Whatever action Trump decides the US should directly take against Iran, he should remove all the shackles Biden has clapped on Israel. Not only should he unequivocally support whatever action Jerusalem needs to take to defend itself from this threat, he should equip it with whatever military resources it needs to effectively destroy the Iranian nuclear programme. 'Such a move should be fully backed by the West', including the UK. Sir Keir Starmer, whose government has ground to make up in its relations with the future Trump administration, could secure an easy win now by proscribing as a terrorist organisation the IRGC, would-be assassins of its number one ally’s president-elect. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)
by Kemp
Note: The headline: 'Iran wants war with the United States'.
Some comments: 'Kemp the war monger'; 'What a ludicrous headline'.

(Saturday), November 09, 2024 3:10 PM  Retired admiral former NATO Commander Stavridis predicted on CNN today that the Russia-Ukraine war will end with Russian President Putin taking 20 percent of Ukraine. Now that Trump won this year's presidential election against Harris, the world will be looking to see how he handles the war. Stavridis, who frequents TV networks to give his expertise on foreign affairs, told that if Trump can end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours, "I'll be the first one voting for his Nobel Peace Prize." "What I hope he does, and I think he will, is put pressure on both sides to get to the negotiating table, and it comes out kind of like the end of the Korean War, which is to say, Putin, unfortunately, but in a real world, will end up with about 20 percent of Ukraine, the chunk that he currently holds, but the rest of Ukraine, the 80 percent, all those resources, vast majority of the population, they stay democratic, free," Stavridis said. He added that Ukraine will also get a 'path to NATO, probably three to five years, realistically. It's not the worst outcome in the world." Stavridis added that Ukraine 'might also get membership in the European Union (EU)', which has put billions of dollars into helping Ukraine fight against Russia's invasion, which began in February 2022. "Putin will hate that part of it, just like the Ukrainians will hate the part of Putin holding onto 20 percent of their country. But it's a negotiation," the retired admiral told. Stavridis also said that the deal would probably include "some kind of demilitarized zone between the two parties, just like Korea". 'And maybe you patrol it with NATO soldiers, for example, not U.S., Europeans." Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Zelensky congratulated Trump in a post to X, formerly Twitter. 'Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump on his impressive election victory! I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine,' he wrote. 'I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.' Putin on Thursday congratulated Trump on his election victory during an international forum conference in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. "I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate him on his election as president of the United States of America," the Russian leader said, adding that what Trump has said "about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least." (Source: The Herald - South Carolina, U.S. / Newsweek - U.S.)

9.11.2024  The Pentagon will allow a select number of private US defense contractors to deploy into Ukraine, US officials said yesterday. The contractors will be stationed far away from the frontlines and will not take part in combat, officials said. Their safety will be their own companies' responsibility. 'The easing of restrictions aims to allow the contractors to help with equipment maintenance and repair. This will help with repairing equipment which requires high expertise, including F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems. 'There is an existing number of US companies which the State Department has contracted to work in Ukraine, 'including on the energy grid". 'Meanwhile, workers from a number of American companies are available in the country, under contracts with the Ukrainian government. (Source: DW - Germany)

.4 11 9 23:30

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United States
Thursday, November 10, 2022  In comments provided during a press conference, Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Ryder explained how the United States is preparing to counter Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and prepare for anticipated aggression in Asia against Taiwan. Brigadier General Ryder explained that 'the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is participating in Exercise Silent Wolverine in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean along with six NATO ally nations in support of multi-domain carrier training and to enhance integrated NATO interoperability and deterrence.' 'Exercise participants include the United States, Canada, Denmark, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Spain,' the general explained. 'Silent Wolverine demonstrates the U.S. commitment to supporting regional stability and security through seamless interchangeability amongst participating NATO allies. The exercise will conclude on November 14th.' 'Opening ceremonies for Exercise Malabar 2022 commenced today, as well, and will be followed by scheduled at-sea exercises involving naval ships, aircraft, and personnel from Australia, India, Japan, and the United States in the Philippines Sea, off the coast of Japan.' Malabar 2022 is a multi-domain 'field training exercise' that involves the four members of the Quad, a loose cooperation between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. The exercise aims to 'enhance interoperability between participating maritime forces, strengthen critical partnerships and further demonstrate DOD presence in the Indo-Pacific region.' 'Finally, the Department of Defense continues to consult closely with allies and partners on Ukraine's security assistance needs, in support of their fight to defend their country.  As you're aware, we announced additional security assistance for Ukraine on Friday under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative worth approximately $400 million.' (Source: TheNationalInterest)

November 10, 2022 3:44 AM GMT+1  U.S. Senate control hung in the balance while Republicans edged closer to securing a majority in the House of Representatives yesterday. The results suggested voters were punishing Biden for presiding over an economy hit by the steepest inflation in 40 years at 8.2 percent, while also lashing out against Republican efforts to ban abortion and cast doubt on the nation's vote-counting process. Thirty-five Senate seats, all 435 House seats and three dozen governors' races were on the ballot. The Senate contests in Nevada and Arizona, where Democratic incumbents were seeking to hold off Republican challengers, were as yet undecided, with thousands of uncounted ballots that could take days to tally. If the parties split those races, the Senate's fate would come down to a Georgia runoff election for the second time in two years, after Edison Research projected neither Democratic incumbent Warnock nor Republican Walker would reach the 50% necessary to avoid a Dec. 6 one-on-one rematch. Republicans were closing in on the 218 seats needed to wrest control of the House from Democrats, with 210 now in their column, Edison Research projected. But 21 of the 53 most competitive races were still pending as of yesterday evening, raising the prospect that the final outcome may not be known for some time. Even a slim House majority would let Republicans hem in Democratic President  Biden during his next two years in office, blocking legislation and launching potentially politically damaging investigations. Control of the Senate would give Republicans the power to block Biden's nominees for judicial and administrative posts. If the Republicans do take control of either chamber, they plan to seek cost savings in the Social Security and Medicare safety-net programs and make permanent tax cuts enacted in 2017 that are due to expire. Republicans also could engineer a showdown over the debt ceiling to extract major spending cuts, and could pare back aid to Ukraine. In a critical win for Democrats, Fetterman flipped a Republican-held U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania, beating Trump-backed retired celebrity surgeon Oz and bolstering his party's chances of holding the chamber. Democrats also had their share of embarrassments, as New York Representative Maloney, the chairman of the committee charged with reelecting House Democrats, conceded he had lost his own race. Trump, who took an active role in recruiting Republican candidates, notched a victory in Ohio, where Vance won a Senate seat to keep it in Republican hands. But Mastriano, another Trump ally, was handily defeated in the Pennsylvania governor's race. Florida Governor DeSantis, who could challenge Trump in 2024, won re-election by nearly 20 percentage points, Edison projected. Poor performances by some candidates backed by Trump - including Walker - signaled exhaustiont, raising questions about the viability of his possible 2024 White House run. Biden has struggled with low public approval. Speaking at a White House news conference, he vowed to work with Republicans and said he understood voters are frustrated. 'The American people have made clear, I think, that they expect Republicans to be prepared to work with me as well,' Biden said. He also reiterated his intention to run for re-election in 2024 and said he would make a final decision early next year. "It was a good day, I think, for democracy," Biden said at a time when hundreds of Republican candidates embraced Trump's claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. A number of election deniers who backed Trump's claims were elected to office on November 8, but many of those who sought positions to oversee elections at the state level were defeated. Easterly, head of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said she saw no evidence any voting system was compromised. U.S. stock indexes fell yesterday as the uncertainty weighed on traders' mood. (Source: Reuters)

November 9, 2022, 11:49 AM  Democrats pushed back against historic trends in the 2022 midterms. Their competitiveness came down to a variety of factors - support for abortion rights, negative views of Trump, rejection of election denial, broad backing from young voters and surprising strength among independents among them. The hurdle for Democrats was high with 76% in ABC News exit poll results rating the economy negatively, 24 percentage points more than two years ago when Biden took office and 45 points more than in the last midterms four years ago. Additionally, 47% said their own finances have gotten worse in the last two years, the most dating to 1982 and just 44% approved of Biden’s work in office, among the lowest midterm presidential approval ratings in 40 years. All those typically produce deep losses for the party in power. Yet the Democrats bucked the trend. Even with several Senate seats and House control unsettled in the wee hours, it was clear they’d dodged the level of damage usually associated with this extent of discontent. Abortion was one factor. It ranked a strong second as the top issue - behind inflation – and voters who picked it went for Democratic candidates by 76-23%. Among all voters, the Democratic Party led by 53-42% in trust to handle abortion. In fact, women were 11 points more apt than men to cite abortion as their top issue, but women did not turn out, nor vote Democratic, in larger than usual numbers. Then there were young voters, age 18 to 29. Within this group, 44% picked abortion as their top issue, twice as many as those that picked inflation. Among voters age 30 and older, far fewer named abortion as their top issue – just 25%. While young people made up about 12% of voters - their typical midterm turnout - they voted Democratic by 63-35%, as in a winning Democratic year. Rejection of Trump was as broad as it was of Biden: 58% saw Trump unfavorably, with 56% feeling the same of Biden. Countering election denial, 79% of voters were confident in the fairness and accuracy of the elections in their state. A plurality, 47%, were very confident, and backed Democratic candidates by 70-28%. Further, voters by 61-35% said Biden was legitimately elected. The House vote among that majority was 74-24%, a 3-1 Democratic margin. Then there were independents. Nationally, in strong Republican years, they break for the Republican Party - by 7 points in 2016, 14 in 2014 and 19 in 2010. This year, independents split 49-47% between Democratic and Republican House candidates. While 93% of Democrats said Biden was legitimately elected, so did 64% of independents, while only 28% of Republicans felt this. And among independents who accepted Biden as legitimate, 68% voted Democratic for House - another result that helped stanch the party’s potential losses. State-by-state exit poll results in key races:     Arizona with no winner today morning. Democrat Hobbs was helped by a 17-point margin among college-educated whites, a group that split essentially evenly in 2018 when Republican Ducey won. Yet Republican and 2020 election-denier Lake struck back with a 95-point margin among the 35% who do not think Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020. And the two were neck-and-neck in massive Maricopa County, 50-49%, Lake-Hobbs. Moderates, who made up 42% of Arizona voters, backed incumbent Democrat Kelly over Republican Masters, 63-33%. But 52% said Biden’s policies are mostly hurting the country, and they went for Masters, 87-9%. Kelly did well in his home Pima County, while Masters had a lead in the rest of the state. In one difference, 54% percent said political newcomer Masters’ views are too extreme; fewer, 43%, said the same of Kelly’s, though these exit poll results were still preliminary.      Florida: A growing Republican electorate may mark an end to Florida’s position as a swing state, with incumbent  Gov. DeSantis and Sen. Rubio securing decisive victories against their Democratic opponents. Florida Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 14 points, up from 8 points in 2020 and 4 points in 2018 to the widest GOP margin in exit polls since 1988. Notable swings among Hispanic voters, particularly non-Cuban Hispanic voters, also helped DeSantis and Rubio win. Hispanics voters overall broke for DeSantis by 15 points. By region, voters in Miami and the Gold Coast, the state’s most Democratic region, were evenly split in both the Senate and governor’s races.      Georgia: In the Senate race, Republican Walker, who was embroiled in a personal scandal, was seen by just a third of Georgia voters; half said the same about Democratic Sen. Warnock. Warnock was seen as having views that are “too extreme” by 49%, vs. 43% who said so for Walker. The winner on the gubernatorial side, incumbent Gov. Kemp, improved over his 2018 matchup with Democrat Abrams by shoring up support among key Republican groups, including conservatives (+80 points, vs. +67 in 2018), rural and small city residents  (+35 points, vs. +16 in 2018) and evangelical white Christians (+83 points, vs. +77 in 2018). Independents were voting 49-48%, Kemp-Abrams; they went 54-44%, Abrams-Kemp, in 2018.     Michigan: In the governor’s race, incumbent Democrat Whitmer was boosted by abortion on the ballot with 54% of voters voting yes on the proposition to establish the right to an abortion and 89% in this group backed Whitmer. 45% said abortion was one of the most important issues in their vote choice in Michigan, 18 points higher than seen in national exit poll results and easily outpacing inflation as the top concern. Among abortion voters, 75% supported Whitmer. She also won 51% of suburban voters, a group she lost by 3 points in her 2018 election.     Nevada: With no winner in Nevada’s Senate race projected as of today morning, exit poll data found Republican Laxalt eroding normally wide Democratic margins in Clark County, the home of Las Vegas and more than seven in 10 of the state’s voters. Democratic incumbent Cortez Masto led by 4 points there, vs. 12 points in 2016. While that typically would be a death knell for a Democrat in Nevada, Cortez Masto came back with a 12-point lead in Washoe County, the second most populous county in the state; it was decided by just 1 point in the past two Senate elections. Independent voters, who Cortez Masto lost by 10 points in 2018, split 48-45%, Cortez Masto-Laxalt. In another race with no winner projected as of today morning, Republican Lombardo was aided by the share of voters age 65 and older, 32%, up 10 points vs. 2018. He won older voters by 13 points over incumbent Democrat Sisolak. Lombardo won white men by a 24-point margin. Sisolak was helped by political moderates, 55-41%, and racial and ethnic minorities, 66-31%.      New Hampshire: Popular Republican Gov. Sununu rode to re-election with a 69% job approval rating. In a state that has two Democratic senators and has voted for Democratic presidents in five straight contests, his appeal as a moderate was key. He won among independents by 21 points, 59-38%, and was able to sway otherwise Democratic voters; in an impressive crossover, 21% of those who voted for Democratic Sen. Hassan also voted for Sununu. Hassan prevailed with support from moderates. She won by 27 points among this group, far outpacing her 6-point advantage among moderates in 2016. Abortion looked critical: 35% of voters identified it as the top issue in their vote, and Hassan won this group by 73 points with only 36% picking inflation as their top issue, but Republican challenger Bolduc won them by less of a margin, 42 points. While six years ago Hassan held a 7-point advantage among women, that margin expanded to 19 points in this election.     North Carolina: A total of 80% of North Carolina rated the nation’s economy negatively and 61% voted for Republican Senate candidate Budd. He also won 62% of white voters. Budd, who owns a gun store, won 65% of voters from gun-owning households, 68% of all voters in the state. Ohio: Incumbent Republican Gov. DeWine won another term with 65% job approval among Ohio voters. As in 2018, DeWine won big among non-college white men (+47 points), whites (+33), men (+31 points) and rural residents (+22). Political newcomer and Republican Vance was helped by Ohio’s recent red-state status: 36x% of Ohio voters were conservatives, compared with 21% liberals. He won by 64-36% among the 75% who rated the economy negatively, and won suburbanites by 13 points, 56 vs. 43%.     Pennsylvania:  Among key storylines in the state’s Senate race, projected winner Fetterman focused on Oz’s newcomer status and his longtime New Jersey residency. Just 43% of voters thought Oz had lived in Pennsylvania long enough to represent the state effectively in the U.S. Senate. Half thought Fetterman is in good enough health to represent the state effectively; questions over his health circulated since his stroke in May and his Oct. 25 debate performance. The winner in the governor’s race, Democrat Shapiro, was boosted by the strongest showing for a winning gubernatorial candidate in the state among moderates (+40 points) in available data since 1992 and among independents (+29 points) since 2006.     Texas: O’Rourke ran a closer race than Gov. Abbott’s Democratic challenger Valdez in 2018 - he was ultimately unable to gather the support he had in his last race for statewide office, one he lost by just 3 points in one of the closest Texas Senate races in decades. In 2018, O’Rourke won Hispanic and Latino voters by 29 points against Cruz; this year he won them by a slimmer 17-point margin. O’Rourke also was unable to mobilize Hispanic and Latino voters in the same way that he did in 2018, with turnout down 5 points among them, 26 vs. 21%. O’Rourke’s margins similarly slid among voters age 18-29, from +42 points against Cruz four years ago to +29 points; and among women, flipping from an 8-point win against Cruz to a 3-point loss against Abbott, who retained broad support among evangelical white Christian voters (+76 points),  conservatives (+82 points), voters in East (+52 points) and West (+49 points) Texas.     Wisconsin: Incumbent Gov. Evers edged out a narrow victory against Republican challenger Michels, almost exactly matching his margin against Republican incumbent Walker four years ago. Evers was aided by his popularity, with 53% percent approving of how he’s handling his job as governor. He also won by 19 points among moderates, who accounted for a plurality of voters in the state, 39%; and by a narrow 2 points among independents, who have backed the winning candidate in all Wisconsin governor races for which data are available since 1994. The Wisconsin Senate race has not been projected as of today morning with 47% saying Democrat Barnes’ views are too extreme, while  essentially as many, 48%, said the same about incumbent Republican Johnson. Mandela won by 81-19% among the 31% of voters who called abortion a top issue in their vote; Johnson, by 77-23% margin among the 35% citing inflation. In a notable shift among groups, young voters broke sharply for Barnes, 69-31%, compared with a narrow +3 points for Johnson in 2016. Still, they accounted for 11% of voters, vs. 14% six years ago. Those aged 65 and older, by contrast, were up from 24% of voters in 2016 to 33% this year, and broke 54-45% for Johnson. (Source: ABCNews)

November 9, 2022 10:25 AM.  Midterms full of firsts for female, LGBTQ, Black candidates. Serving as governors at least 12 women set to lead states. The U.S. has never had more than nine female governors in office at a time, a record set in 2004. Ten had already won their races; two other races had not been decided but featured women candidates in both parties. Sanders, a Republican who served as White House press secretary for former President Trump between 2017 and 2019, will become the first woman governor of Arkansas. Democrat Healey, is the first woman to be elected to Massachusetts′ office of governor and also the country's first openly lesbian candidate to be elected governor. If Democrat Kotek wins Oregon's gubernatorial race, she may join Healey as a  lesbian candidate elected governor. Vermont will send a woman to Congress, after being the only state never to have had female representation in the House.  Democrat Balint, president of the Vermont Senate, will also become the first openly gay person to fill the state’s single seat in the U.S. House. In Maryland, voters elected the state's first Black governor, Democrat Moore, a combat veteran, the third Black candidate in the country to be elected governor. He led one of the nation’s largest anti-poverty organizations and campaigned on creating equal opportunity for his state residents. Florida is sending the first member of Gen Z - those born from 1997 to 2012 - to Congress, with the comfortable victory of Democrat Frost, a 25-year-old Black man with Cuban heritage who secured high-profile endorsements from U.S. Sens. Sanders and Warren. Ramirez, 39, a Democrat, who was the first Guatemalan American to serve in the Illinois General Assembly, defeated Republican Burau to represent Illinois’ 3rd District, in Chicago. Pennsylvania elects Democratic Lee, its first Black congresswoman state representative. In Minnesota, Finke - who decided to run after seeing growing anti-transgender sentiment across the country - became the first openly transgender person elected to the state’s Legislature. Voters in western Montana elected the state’s first out transgender lawmaker, Zephyr, and Howell, the first out nonbinary candidate to the state legislature. Both are Democrats. Democrat Roesener, 26, was elected as a state representative to New Hampshire's 400-member House, becoming the first trans man elected to a state legislature. (Source: fresnobee / AssociatedPress)

November 9, 2022 4:56am EST  Actor and director Penn yesterday gifted President Zelenskyy one of his Oscar awards and asked him to hold onto it until his country can defeat Russia. Penn has won two Oscars for Best Actor during his career, in 2003 and in 2008. Penn's visit to Ukraine yesterday was his third since the start of war with Russia. The Hollywood director was in Ukraine on February 24, as he was shooting footage for his documentary on the unfolding crisis that was already in the works. In the spring, he even considered taking up arms to defend the war-torn country. His last visit meeting with Zelenskyy was in June. In September, Moscow banned Penn and fellow actor Stiller from entering Russia. (Source: FoxNews)

November 9, 2022, 12:23  “President Biden's supporters are losing the US elections. Pelosi's visits to Taiwan and Armenia led to the loss of the Speaker's seat. The Democrats have lost their majority in the House of Representatives,” posted Chairman of the State Duma Volodin on his Telegram channel. He gave three reasons for the democrats’ failure in the US Congress elections: first of all, economic issues. Volodin recalled that the “Biden’ inflation” rates were the highest over the past 40 years, Washington’s sanctions policy had led to a world energy crisis. “Over the past two years, there had been printed more than 6 trillion USD backed by nothing. The uncontrolled rise in prices has affected ordinary US citizens. For the first time, the national debt has reached an exorbitant 31.2 trillion USD, that is 137% of the US GDP,” he stressed. The second reason is the internal split. “For many years, the White House has been trying to turn the US citizens against each other by dividing people by race, religion, and political preferences. LGBT propaganda, the imposition of same-sex marriages, the destruction of traditional values had turned into a deep split in the US society,” emphasized Volodin. The third reason is the crisis of power. The current two-party system in the USA only worsened the situation. “Early voting (from 4 to 45 days in advance) and voting by mail, the lack of control and transparency of the elections also worsen distrust of the authorities,” stressed Volodin. “If there are no drastic changes in Washington’s domestic and foreign policy, the crisis of power in the United States of America will be getting worse as the 2024 presidential election approaches,” emphasized the Chairman of the State Duma. (Source: Duma)

11/9/22 at 5:38 AM EST  China's media reacts to 'chaos' of U.S. midterm election results - Chinese newspapers were predicting a major setback for the Biden administration, a major midterm election upset for President Biden's Democratic Party yesterday in key races in the Senate and House, before early results appeared to contradict  forecasts of a "red wave." The state-owned press has taken a great interest in partisan shifts in Congress, which have the potential to influence U.S. foreign policy. With 35 seats in the Senate up for grabs on November 8, China Daily, among the country's most widely circulated English-language publications, called the midterms a "looming train wreck for Biden's presidency." With projections indicating the Republicans were likely to regain control of the House of Representatives, the paper said today that a GOP flip would undoubtedly impact Biden's domestic legislative agenda, while losing both chambers "would be a disaster" for his administration. The Democratic Party's looming electoral 'disaster' means that the latter part of the Biden presidency will be even more difficult, China Daily said. The Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party's nationalistic tabloid, predicted more "partisan strife" in the U.S. after the midterms. "The U.S. is bracing for further chaos and division, as Republicans are highly likely to trigger an impeachment process against U.S. President Biden if they wrest control of the House back," it said today, citing Diao, an associate professor at Renmin University in Beijing. The outcome of what it believed would be a major midterm setback for Biden would have implications for Beijing, too, according to the newspaper. Washington was likely to "continue to confront and pressure China after a frustration in Congress," it said. The Global Times anticipated Biden pursuing further "confrontational competition with China" to distract from unfavorable midterm results. GOP majorities in the House and Senate would also make U.S. foreign policy more hawkish toward Beijing, it suggested. The Senate race has become too close to call at the time of publication, with both Democrats and Republicans each requiring fewer than five seats to secure a majority. Candidates for the House were also still undecided - 218 seats would give one of the parties control. A number of hotly watched races have already been called, among them DeSantis's reelection to the Florida governorship. The Republican, who is tipped as a 2024 White House hopefully, defeated Democrat Crist. Elsewhere, Pennsylvania's Lt. Gov. Fetterman, a Democrat, claimed victory in the state's Senate race against Dr. Oz, the former Winfrey sidekick who was running for the GOP. In Georgia, the Democratic Party's lawyer and rights activist Abrams conceded to her Republican opponent Kemp in the state's gubernatorial race. (Source: NewsWeek)

11/8/2022 8:19:00 AM GMT  The US midterm elections have finally arrived. Economists at Deutsche Bank highlight that the S%P 500 Index has always been higher one year after the vote. There will be plenty of extrapolation onto the 2024 presidential election from the results. “It’s no exaggeration to say that midterm elections are one of the best historic buy signals for equities we have. In fact, in the 19 midterm elections since WWII, the S&P 500 has always been higher one year after the vote. Whether any of those cycles had to contend with the macro tsunami that's coming in the next 12 months is a moot point but it shows the underlying technicals.” “If the Republicans do end up retaking control of either chamber in Congress (or both), the result will likely be legislative gridlock for the next two years, and we do not see any major legislation on economic policy ahead of the 2024 election in this circumstance. If there is divided government, however, one area we might see more action again is the debt ceiling, since there’s a chance that a Republican-controlled Congress use the need to raise the ceiling as leverage to get some of their policy priorities through.” “Whatever ends up happening today, there’ll be plenty of extrapolation onto the 2024 presidential election from the results. However, it’s important to remember that 2 years is also a very long time in politics and a number of presidents have come back from very bad midterm results to win re-election.' (Source: FXStreet)

Nov. 7, 2022 7:26 am ET  Even as relations between Washington and Moscow have deteriorated, the U.S. has sought to preserve some areas of cooperation, especially on strategic arms control and the International Space Station. Washington and Moscow have adhered to the New START treaty, which limits long-range U.S. and Russian nuclear arms and is due to expire in 2026. U.S. and Russian officials are planning to hold meetings of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, which was established by the New START treaty to discuss its implementation, according to U.S. officials and a Russian media report. One aim is to discuss resuming inspections under New START that were suspended when the Covid-19 pandemic began, U.S. officials say. While Switzerland had been the traditional host nation for such talks, Moscow has said that it no longer considers it a neutral country because, like other European nations, it has imposed economic sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Western sanctions have also complicated the Russians’ travel arrangements, so plans are being made to hold the meeting in Cairo in late November. The meetings aren’t generally announced in advance. U.S. national-security adviser Sullivan has had confidential discussions with Russian counterparts - top aides to Russian President Putin - in recent months amid concerns over escalation, nuclear threats. He has been in contact with Ushakov, a foreign-policy adviser to Mr. Putin. Mr. Ushakov has served as an ambassador in Washington and is regarded by former  and current U.S. officials as a conduit to the Russian leader. “Anglo-Saxon newspapers have been publishing numerous hoaxes,” Kremlin spokesman Peskov said today when asked about the undisclosed communications. He deferred to the White House or The Wall Street Journal for additional comment. Mr. Sullivan spoke with Mr. Ushakov in December. Sullivan has spoken with his direct Russian counterpart in the Russian government, Patrushev, officials said. In his March conversation with Mr. Patrushev, which the White House described, Mr. Sullivan told the Russian official that Moscow’s forces should stop attacking Ukrainian cities and towns and warned the Kremlin not to use chemical or biological weapons. A Russian statement about the March conversation between Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Patrushev said that it took place at the initiative of the U.S., and that Mr. Patrushev has stressed “the need to stop Washington’s support of neo-Nazis and terrorists in Ukraine and facilitate the transfer of foreign mercenaries to the conflict zone, as well as refuse to continue supplying weapons to the Kiev regime.” Mr. Patrushev, director of the Federal Security Service from 1999 to 2008, is regarded by American officials as a hard-liner who shares many of Mr. Putin’s suspicions about the U.S. The White House hasn’t publicly acknowledged any calls between Mr. Sullivan and any senior Russian official since March, when he spoke with Mr. Patrushev. Officials didn’t provide the precise dates and number of the calls or say whether they had been productive. Mr. Sullivan has been involved in diplomatic efforts, including a visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 4, to speak with president Zelensky, and Defense Minister Reznikov, meetings traditionally handled by the secretaries of state or defense. Mr. Sullivan has spoken to Ukraine’s leadership, urging them to publicly signal their willingness to resolve the conflict, a U.S. official said. The U.S. isn’t pushing Ukraine to negotiate, the official added, but rather to show allies that it is seeking a resolution to the war, which has affected world oil and food prices. Secretary of Defense Austin and several of his allied counterparts spoke this past month with Russian Defense Minister Shoigu as Moscow claimed Kyiv was preparing to use what is known as a dirty bomb against it, something Ukrainian and Western officials have denied. Mr. Austin initiated the initial call, which was their first discussion since May. (Source: TheWallStreetJournal)

Sun, November 6, 2022 at 5:05 PM  Russia reactivates its trolls and bots ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections. Last month, the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued an alert warning of the threat of disinformation spread by 'dark web media channels, online journals, messaging applications, spoofed websites, emails, text messages and fake online personas'. The disinformation could include claims that voting data or results had been hacked or compromised. The goal, as before, is to stoke anger among conservative voters and to undermine trust in the American electoral system. The agencies did not identify specific efforts, but urged people not to like, discuss or share posts online from unknown or distrustful sources. Social media platforms and researchers who track disinformation have recently uncovered a variety of campaigns by Russia, China and Iran. A recurring theme of the new Russian efforts is an argument that the United States under Biden is wasting money by supporting Ukraine in its resistance to the Russian invasion. The user on Gab who identifies as Nora Berka resurfaced in August after a yearlong silence, reposting a handful of messages with sharply conservative political  themes before writing a stream of original vitriol. Nora Berka posted a doctored photograph in September that showed President Zelenskyy as a bikini-wearing pole dancer being showered with dollar bills by Biden. “As working class Americans struggle to afford food, gas, and find baby formula, Biden wants to spend $13.7 billion more in aid to Ukraine,' the account posted. The posts mostly denigrated President Biden and other prominent Democrats, sometimes obscenely and were depicting Ukraine’s president as a caricature straight out of Russian propaganda. The account was previously linked to the secretive Russian Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg, according to the cybersecurity group Recorded Future. The campaign — using accounts that pose as enraged  Americans like Nora Berka - has specifically targeted Democratic candidates in the most contested races, including the Senate seats up for grabs in Ohio, Arizona and Pennsylvania, calculating that a Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives could help the Russian war effort. The accounts started becoming active again in August and September, called to action like sleeper cells. Liston, a senior intelligence analyst with Recorded Future identified the Nora Berka account. According to Liston, the website domain was registered using Bitcoin accounts. Since September the account has repeatedly shared links to a previously unknown website - electiontruth.net - that Recorded Future said was almost certainly linked to the Russian campaign. Electiontruth.net’s earliest posts date only from Sept. 5; since then, it has posted articles almost daily ridiculing Biden and prominent Democratic candidates, while criticizing policies regarding race, crime and gender that it said were destroying the United States. The articles all have pseudonyms as bylines, like Andrew J, Truth4Ever and Laura. Recorded Future and two other social media research companies, Graphika and Mandiant, found a number of Russian campaigns that have turned to Gab, Parler, Getter, the discussion forum patriots.win and other newer platforms that pride themselves on creating unmoderated spaces in the name of free speech. Many of the accounts the researchers identified were previously used by a news outlet calling itself the Newsroom for American and European Based Citizens. Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, has previously linked the news outlet to the Russian information campaigns centered around the Internet Research Agency. The campaigns show not only how vulnerable the American political system remains to foreign manipulation but also how purveyors of disinformation have evolved and adapted to efforts by the major social media platforms to remove or play down false or deceptive content. As before, it may be hard to measure the exact impact of these accounts on voters come Tuesday. They contribute to what Perez - a board member with the OSET Institute, a nonpartisan election security organization, who previously worked at Twitter - called “manufactured chaos” in the country’s body politic. (Source: Yahoo / TheNewYorkTimes)

Sunday, November 6, 2022 3:14 AM GMT+1  The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Putin is removed from power, the Washington Post reported yesterday. The request by American officials was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but a calculated attempt to ensure Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come. U.S. officials shared the assessment of their Ukrainian counterparts that Putin is not for now serious about negotiations, but acknowledged that President Zelenskiy's ban on talks with him had generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war's effects on costs of food and fuel are felt most sharply. U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan said during a visit to Kyiv on November 4, that Washington's support for Ukraine would remain 'unwavering and unflinching" following next Tuesday's midterm congressional elections. (Source: Reuters)

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Europe    Európa

European Political Community

Hungary
(7 November 2024)  Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary. Arrivals at the Gala dinner and official welcome /Video, photo/ (Source: European Council)

7 Nov 2024  PM Keir Starmer and fellow European leaders have urged Trump to stand up to the “bully” Putin as they digest the potential consequences of the historic Republican election victory in the US. Zelensky made a desperate appeal at the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Budapest for leaders to continue their support for Ukraine in its war with Russia amid fears that Mr Trump will try to force a deal involving concessions. It came as Sir Keir faces increasing pressure to prioritise a new post-Brexit defence pact with the EU, with concerns growing that Mr Trump may also dilute support for Nato and focus US military objectives elsewhere. Don’t be ‘herbivore surrounded by carnivores’ says Macron as EU faces up to second Trump term. 'We need to be able to defend ourselves,” the French president said. 'We cannot delegate our security to the Americans forever.” (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

07/11/2024 - 22:31 GMT+1  The Hungarian premier, who acted as host of a European Political Community (EPC) summit, made a forceful endorsement of the need to secure a rapid "ceasefire" in Ukraine as a prelude to peace negotiations with Russia. "The precondition for every peace is communication. The condition of communication is a ceasefire," Orbán said. "It takes time to negotiate. But first, a ceasefire." "So what I'm arguing in favour is to have a ceasefire which can provide room and time for the warring parties to have communication and to start negotiating about the peace," he added. His language echoed that of Trump, who has described Zelenskyy as 'the greatest salesman' and promised to strike a deal to end the war "in 24 hours," stoking fears the Republican, whose inauguration for the White House will be held in January, will cut off aid altogether. "The people of Europe are less and less ready to finance a war that they don't understand exactly, that they don't understand exactly what is the purpose of that war, nobody can give a guarantee for how long it will take, nobody can guarantee when the sanctions will be effective," Orbán told reporters. "The American election closed the chapter and opened a new way. It's obvious (a) change of minds and ideas is going on as well. That's life." The premier admitted that the big meeting in Budapest, attended by most EU leaders alongside other heads of state and government from the wider European region, including those from Britain, Moldova, Albania, Serbia and Turkey, had produced 'no agreement" on the thorny issue. "There are still diverging opinions about the continuation of the war or a quick ceasefire and negotiation," he said. "But one thing is evident today: those who want peace are increasingly numerous and that, (after) the US elections, the camp of those who want peace increased manifold," he added. "This is a new situation and Europe must react." Zelenskyy, called it nonsense and disharmony. "A leader who is against Ukraine's NATO membership is the one offering a ceasefire. This is nonsense and disharmony. Why? Because a ceasefire happens when the victim knows they will have security guarantees,' Zelenskyy added, in a reference to Orbán's noted opposition to Ukraine's membership in the transatlantic alliance. 'This is what we now call 'armchair experts.' There's no other term for it,' Zelenskyy said. 'People who didn't live through war but have only seen it in books and movies. People who've spent years or months talking to Putin, hugging (him), but never fought (against) him. This is an analysis without a deep understanding of war, its consequences, its risks.' Asked if he believed the "pro-peace" camp described by Orbán was gaining followers, as the premier claimed, Zelenskky replied: 'Me? No.' (Source: Politico - U.S.)

(7 November 2024)  The UK's support for Ukraine 'iron-clad', PM Keir Starmer has assured President Zelensky. He said he had met President Zelensky for the sixth time since becoming PM. The two men met at a summit of the European Political Community in the Hungarian capital, Budapest. The US has been by far the largest single donor of military aid to Ukraine. But ’fears’ have been expressed that the return of Trump to the White House in January might slow, if not halt, the flow of American military aid to Kyiv. The prime minister said the summit was "not just about sovereignty of Ukraine", but also "our freedom, our democracy and our values". Following his talks Sir Keir sidestepped a question about whether Trump's presidential election victory was good for Europe and Ukraine. Earlier, summit host Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Europe's leaders had agreed that they needed to take responsibility for their security and not just rely on the US for their defence. The Hungarian leader is a staunch Trump supporter and has close ties to Moscow. He has been reluctant to impose sanctions on Russia or to supply Ukraine with weapons. Trump has said he wants to end the Ukraine war "within a day", but has declined to set out how this would be achieved. Some commentators have suggested it could mean the new US administration putting pressure on Zelensky to give up some territory as part of a peace deal with Russian President Putin. Zelensky said he had yet to discuss the conflict with the US president-elect. Sir Keir urged Ukraine's allies to "step up" their backing. Nato Secretary General Rutte said Trump's first term had stimulated Europe to spend more on defence, but ’we need to do more’. He stressed in Budapest that the threat of Russia, and its alliance with North Korea, China and Iran, posed problems for the US as well as Europe. ’I worked with him very well for four years’, Rutte, who was Dutch prime minister during Mr Trump's first 2017-2021 presidency, added. "He is extremely clear about what he wants. He understands that you have to deal with each other to come to joint positions. And I think we can do that."Sir Keir dodged a question about a report Trump had privately described him as ’very left-wing’. The prime minister said their meeting in New York in September and their phone call on Wednesday after the US election result had been "very positive, very constructive". (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

November 7, 2024 9:26 pm CET  Today, in Budapest, where he was attending a gathering of European leaders, Zelenskyy rebuffed Trump’s proposal for rapid peace deal in Ukraine war. He poured cold water on a plan by U.S. President-elect Trump to strike a rapid peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, arguing it would amount to a “loss” for Ukraine. 'I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision” to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, Zelenskyy told journalists in Budapest. “He wants that. It doesn’t mean that it will happen this way.' Trump, who was reelected U.S. president this week, said in 2023 that he would seek a quick deal to end the war, asserting: “I’ll have that done in 24 hours” after meeting Russian President Putin and Zelenskyy. He repeated the claim several times on the campaign trail. 'We all want to end this war, but a fair ending ... If it is very fast, it’s going to be a loss for Ukraine,” Zelenskyy, speaking to journalists in Budapest, said. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Thu 7 Nov 2024 20.16 CET Meeting in Budapest for two days of talks hosted by Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, an outspoken Trump ally, the EU’s 27 heads of state and government were joined today by 20 other leaders from the wider European Political Community. On the agenda were support for Ukraine, migration, trade and economic security. Trump’s victory brings unwanted further uncertainty to the continent at a time when it is already struggling to agree on common responses to its problems, including much-needed new funding tools, such as joint borrowing, for defence and economic innovation. The return of the former president raises the prospect of a halt to US support for Ukraine, fuels doubts over Washington’s future commitment to the Nato alliance, and could herald economically disastrous tariffs on European exports. It is also likely to bolster Europe’s advancing ’far-right’ parties at a time when the EU’s two biggest powers – Germany, whose coalition government collapsed yesterdayday, and France – are weakened by political crises at home. There was agreement that Europe should take more responsibility for its peace and security. „We cannot wait for the Americans to protect us,” Orbán said. There had been diverging opinions during the day-long talks. but also common ground on the need for Europe to respond to a “world-changing” US election result, he said. He added that he had celebrated Trump’s victory with vodka rather than champagne, because he was „in Kyrgyzstan, where they have different traditions”. The French president, Macron, said Europe must assert its independence from the US and defend its interests over those of geopolitical rivals at a “decisive moment in history”, adding that the bloc could not allow itself to be a weak ’herbivore’ surrounded by ’carnivores’. Europe must seize control of its history and could no longer ’delegate’ its security to the US, Macron said. ’Do we want to read the history written by others – the wars launched by Putin, the US election, China’s technological or trade choices – or do we want to write our own?” Orbán said that with the prospect of Trump returning to the White House, the camp of those who want peace in Ukraine has increased significantly. This was a new situation, and Europe must react by pushing for an early ceasefire, he said. Zelenskyy responded that talk of introducing a ceasefire without first obtaining security guarantees for Ukraine was dangerous. A ceasefire when there are no security guarantees … is preparation for the continuation of the occupation, he said. He had earlier insisted that an approach of peace through strength was needed, saying that concessions to Moscow were unacceptable for Ukraine. Heading into the talks, the European Council president, Michel, also acknowledged differences. Europe aimed to be a respected partner for the US, he said, adding that Washington ’knows it is in its interest to show firmness when we engage with authoritarian regimes’. Der Leyen, the president of the executive body - the European Commission - said the EU must maintain unity. ’We showed it during the pandemic and the energy crisis,’ she said, adding that she was looking forward to working with Trump ’again’. Nato’s new secretary general, Rutte, said he aimed to work closely with Trump, noting that it was pressure from Washington during the former president’s first term that had pushed alliance members to boost defence spending. Russia was ’delivering the latest [weapons] technology into North Korea in return for North Korean help with the war against Ukraine’, a threat “not only to the European part of Nato, but also to the US’, he said, adding that he was looking forward to discussing with Trump ’how we face these threats collectively’. Others were more circumspect. Trump was known sometimes for a degree of unpredictability, a degree of volatility, so “We will seek dialogue, but won’t give up our principles, Luxembourg’s prime minister Luc Frieden, said. Finland’s prime minister, Petteri Orpo, said he was alarmed at the prospect of a trade war. “Let’s now try to influence the US and Trump’s future policy so that he understands the risks involved, he said.’ Analysts have xpressed significant doubts about the extent to which Europe’s often-divided leaders will be able to rise collectively to the challenge of an ’isolationist’, “America first” presidency. Could galvanise Trump’s second presidency EU politics to action? Contrary to claims, Europe is not prepared for the economic impact of higher tariffs, the likely U-turn on Ukraine, and defence spending ultimatums, Eurointelligence analysts said. 'We expect the EU to divide on similar lines to the US itself.’ An informal summit of EU leaders alone will focus tomorrow on the bloc’s declining competitiveness, laid bare in a report by the former Italian leader Mario Draghi. (Source: The Guardian - United Kingdom)
by Henley

07/11/2024 - 18:07  European leaders make plea for Trump to support Ukraine and avoid trade wars. Leaders of the '27 EU member states met' in Budapest today to weigh transatlantic relations and chime in on Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Faced with uncertainty, they urged the president-elect to refrain from unsettling the global order, avoid trade wars and maintain support for Ukraine. (Source: France 24 - based in France)

(7 November 2024)  Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary. Roundtable opening remarks by Macron, French President /Video/ (Source: European Council) Translated to English
Duration: 00:13:28

(7 November 2024)  Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary. Roundtable opening remarks by Viktor Orbán, Hungarian Prime Minister. Language: Interpretation in English /Video/ (Source: European Council)
Duration: 00:08:37

(7 November 2024)  Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary. Roundtable opening remarks by Viktor Orbán, Hungarian Prime Minister. Language (Original): Hungarian /Video/ (Source: European Council)
Duration: 00:08:37

(7 November 2024)  Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary: Roundtable  /Video/ (Source: European Council)

(7 November 2024)  Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary: Family photo /Video/ (Source: European Council)

(7 November 2024)  Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary. Doorstep Michel, President of the European Council. /Video/ (Source: European Council) Language (Original): English
Duration: 00:05:40

(7 November 2024)  Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary: Compilation of all arrivals and welcome /Video/ (Source: European Council)
Duration: 00:33:25

Oroszország
2024. XI. 7. Putyin üzent a nyugati világ vezetőinek, akik épp Budapesten találkoznak. Az orosz elnök szerint „mélyen téves” az az „ellenséges irányvonal, amelyet számos nyugati ország az ukrajnai konfliktus eszkalálására és elhúzódására követ, azzal a céllal, hogy ’stratégiai vereséget’ okozzon Oroszországnak.. Putyin úgy véli, hogy 'ilyen illuzórikus számításokat csak azok végezhetnek, akik nem ismerik és nem is akarják ismerni Oroszország történelmét, akik nem veszik figyelembe az orosz nép egységét, lelkierejét és összetartását'. Putyin Moszkvában huszonnyolc állam nagykövetei előtt beszélt, akik átadták megbízóleveleiket az orosz elnöknek. Üzenetében értékelte a kazanyi BRICS-csúcs után megváltozott világrendet és szólt a közel-keleti konfliktusról is. A teljes beszéd magyarul. /Video/ (Forrás: Youtube / Kremlin / Hetek)
147 642 megtekintés

Asia

China
07.11.2024  Xi speaks with Trump, says China, US would ‘benefit from cooperation’ (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Turkey
November 7, 2024 at 5:17 pm  Turkiye is acting with a strategic perspective towards full EU membership, the country’s President, Erdogan, told his French counterpart today, in Hungary’s capital, Budapest, where he attended the European Political Community Summit. Erdogan also underlined the need to revitalise the candidate country’s accession process. He conveyed Ankara’s expectation for the EU to update its Customs Union with Turkiye and fulfil its promises to Ankara on visa liberalisation for Turkish nationals. The two leaders also discussed regional and global issues. (Source: Middle East Monitor - Location London, U.K.; financed by Qatar)

North America

United States
November 7, 2024 4:20 pm (EST)  How a second Trump administration could affect U.S. foreign policy? Experts answer on the 'pressing issues'..     Multilateralism and international bodies: It will be harmful. The first Trump administration withdrew from global organizations, thereby making space for China to further spread its own.     Indo-Pacific security partnerships: The Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) pact is likely to continue, not binding security alliances. AUKUS is a technology partnership, the Quad receive bipartisan support.     The war in the Gaza Strip: Trump wants the war over by Inauguration Day. That seems unlikely. Rather than encouraging a ceasefire it seems likely that he will give the Israelis political/diplomatic room and weapons to complete their military operations as soon as possible.     Should NATO make moves to be self-reliant and not dependent on the United States? 'European NATO members should do both: increase their own defense spending and military strength but try to keep the United States in the alliance as the most important member'. This will create a NATO with two pillars: a European and a U.S. pillar.     U.S.-Latin American relations? Trump will be pressuring countries with tariffs and other tools to get what he wants and agnostic towards democracy. He will pressure countries to harden or even close their borders to stop migrants, refugees, and fentanyl. He may have less interest in dislodging dictators in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. If he manages to deport millions of undocumented people, it will tank Central America’s smaller economies by dramatically shrinking remittances and contribute greatly to instability in that region.     Can therest of the world make climate progress without the United States? 'The vast majority of emissions will come from China and emerging economies. U.S. states and companies will pursue emissions reductions, even if the federal government does less'.     The war in Ukraine: "The Ukrainians had better prepare a gameplan for seeking a negotiated end to their fight against Russian aggression. That’s their best bet for winning Trump’s support and the continued flow of at least some U.S. aid". .     Trump’s China policies: President Trump's approach toward China during his first term was levying more than $360 billion of tariffs on Chinese products. He has vowed to impose 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods during a second term. But he has also expressed admiration for Chinese leader Xi.   Trump will likely raise tariffs, 'not just against China, but our allies.   How will China retaliate? With tariffs of their own. 'American farmers and ranchers are likely to be hardest hit from the trade war.     Africa? Washington is expected to continue strengthening old alliances and exploring new ones with a view to keeping Russia and China in check.     Defense of Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion? Trump has declined to commit to defending Taiwan, saying instead that China will not invade when he is president 'but eventually they will.' 'Taiwan should pay us for defense . . . we’re no different than an insurance company,” he has also stated.     U.S.-Iran relations: The Trump administration is likely to increase economic pressure on Iran, effective in terms of draining the Iranian treasury and thus limiting its ability to fund its proxies and sustain its patronage networks at home. (Source: The Council on Foreign Relation - U.S.)

November 7, 2024  US Senate ‘firmly’ in Republican hands after flipping multiple seats. /Video/ (Source: Fox New - U.S.)
49 030 views

November 7, 2024  Harris concedes defeat to Trump in US presidential election. “Earlier today, I spoke with President-elect Trump and congratulated him on his victory." “While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fuelled this campaign,’ she said. (Source: Premium Times – Nigeria)

NATO
07/11/2024 - 13:23 GMT+1  The deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia's aggression against Ukraine represents a serious threat not only to Europe but also to the United States, with potential ramifications across the Indo-Pacific region, NATO Secretary-General Rutte has said today speaking to reporters in Budapest in a direct appeal to Trump. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

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Europe

Germany
November 6, 2024 9:01 pm CET  Renewed political instability came in Germany just hours after Trump’s clear win in the U.S. election, a result that stunned German political leaders, ’who depend on American military might for their country’s defense’ and fear Trump’s tariff policies will hobble German industry. Germany’s chancellor Scholz sets stage for German snap election as three-party ruling coalition government collapsed today evening. He said a confidence vote will first take place on Jan. 15 after announcing he will fire his finance minister Lindner over persistent disagreements over persistent rifts on spending and economic reforms, a move that paves the way for a snap election. If, as is likely, Scholz loses that vote, a snap election is set to take place by March. Lindner and his FDP insisted that the German government stick to strict spending rules and cut taxes, even as his left-wing coalition partners wanted to maintain social spending and boost German industry through economic stimulus. “All too often, Minister Lindner has blocked laws in an inappropriate manner,’ said Scholz in a statement. “Too often he has engaged in petty party-political tactics. Too often he has broken my trust.” Scholz said he had asked Linder to ease spending rules to allow more Ukraine aid, but Lindner refused, saying such a move would have “violated my oath of office.” Linder also attacked Scholz’s response to Germany’s economic weakness. “ Scholz has long failed to recognise the need for a new economic awakening in our country,” said Lindner in a statement. “He has long played down the economic concerns of our citizens.” Central to the current coalition disagreements was the adoption of the 2025 budget by parliament - in which a gap of at least €2.4 billion, and potentially far more, needs to be filled - as well as an agreement on measures to revamp the country’s ailing economy. Crisis talks in the coalition came to a head after Lindner issued a policy paper with demands for liberal economic reforms that were difficult for the other two parties to accept, calling for tax cuts and a scaling back of climate policies in order to stimulate economic growth - both positions that put the party at odds with its coalition partners. The firing effectively ejects Lindner’s fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) from the troubled coalition. It is now polling at only 4 percent — below the threshold needed to make it into the German parliament - meaning its leaders have been mulling a coalition break in order to save their political futures. By firing Lindner, Scholz appeared to be beating the FDP to the punch. A snap election would likely usher in a new government led by the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which currently leads in polls by a wide margin. CDU leaders have taken a ’sharp’ turn to the right on migration in recent years, while also advocating for ’more robust military aid for Ukraine’. Trump’s victory ’is expected to put heavy pressure on Europe’s largest economy. An analysis from the German Economic Institute (IW) estimates that a new trade war could cost Germany €180 billion over Trump’s four years in office’. Ultimately, however, not even the looming threat of Trump proved enough for the fractious parties to put aside their differences. ’Downright tragic on a day like this, when Germany has to show unity and the ability to act in Europe.” Habeck, the Green economy minister said. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
by von der Burchard, Nöstlinger and Buchsteiner

Russia
6 Nov, 2024 09:28 am  Russia denies interference. Russia’s embassy in the US has denied accusations that Moscow has interfered in the US election after authorities said hoax bomb threats to polling stations appeared to originate in Russia, CNN has reported. The Russian embassy in Washington said the US accusations were “slanderous and baseless.” 'All insinuations about ‘Russian machinations’ are malicious slander, invented for use in the domestic political struggle of the United States,' the embassy said as reported by state-run RIA Novosti news agency. (Source: The New Zealand Herald)

United Kingdom
November 6, 2024 8:44 am CET  Johnson was removed from Channel 4’s U.S. election night program 'for promoting his book too much". Former prime minister, providing analysis for the British broadcaster, repeatedly held up his recently published memoir 'Unleashed' and dropped references to it, despite being told off by the hosts for doing so slammed as ‘so cheap’ on Channel 4. As prime minister, Johnson allied himself with Republican nominee Trump, and has met him at least twice since leaving power to discuss the war in Ukraine, Johnson said he’d spoken to Trump 'quite recently.' However, Johnson dismissed accusations he modeled himself on Trump as 'complete and utter tripe.' (Source: Politico - U.S.)

North America

3:39 PM CET, November 6, 2024  Republican presidential nominee former President Trump has won the 2024 presidential election. Trump scored a decisive victory in a deeply divided nation. He exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base. Trump beat back concerns about his moral failings, becoming the first U.S. president with a felony conviction. He won with bold promises that his fiery brand of America-first economic populism and conservative culture would make their lives better. There are reasons to believe his plans for mass deportations and huge tariffs ’may hurt the very people who enabled his victory’. He is set to enter the White House on Jan. 20, 2025. Trump made significant gains. His focus on immigration, economy and culture worked. Trump's support among Black voters, Latinos and young voters appeared to rise slightly compared to 2020. Collectively, those small gains yielded an outsize outcome. Slightly more than 4 in 10 young voters went for Trump, up from about one-third in 2020. His victory may have had as much to do with the fundamental challenges Harris faced all along. Trump ultimately won over voters with grand promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants on the Southern border and his call to “make America great again.” Relentless repetition convinced voters. Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest issue factoring into their election decisions, about as many said that of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump is threatening to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other American adversaries, which economists warn could dramatically boost prices for average Americans. He also appealed to religious voters in both parties by seizing on the Democrats’ support for the transgender community.     The results left Democrats facing with no obvious leader to unite the anti-Trump coalition and no clear plan to rebuild. Black voters - men and women - have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party. In recent years, Latinos and young voters have joined them. All three groups still preferred Democrat Harris. About 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. About half voters under age 30 supported Harris. Black and Latino voters appeared slightly less likely to support her. Facing deep voter frustration over the direction of the country  - with Biden’s approval rating dismal - she never did distance herself from her party’s sitting president. About two-thirds of Harris voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their votes. Harris, by the end of the campaign, joined other critics describing the former president and now president-elect as a ’fascist.’ Slightly more than half of voters said Harris has the moral character to be president. It was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended a woman’s national right to terminate a pregnancy. About half of women backed Harris. Just a few months ago, Harris generated incredible excitement across the party. She filled arenas. She raised more than a billion dollars seemingly overnight. The results shrink Democrats’ geographic footprint. Now Democrats are left to wonder how to reconnect with parts of the country and slices of the electorate that rejected them. Trump already succeeded in painting Democrats as out-of-touch culturally with middle America. Though Trump has now been the central figure in American politics for nine years, he convinced voters he represented change.     On the promise of the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history, Trump has not explained how such an operation would work. About a third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their votes. He was repeatedly promising retribution to his political enemies. Trump refused to acknowledge his 2020 defeat. He labeled Harris a fascist and a communist. Trump’s criminal convictions, additional pending indictments and his most incendiary rhetoric were not a sufficient concern to keep tens of millions of Americans from voting for him. About 4 in 10 voters said that Trump has the moral character to be president. It’s quite possible, as Trump has said many times on the campaign trail, that his legal peril actually helped him. As it stands, Trump may never actually face sentencing in a New York business fraud case in which he was convicted of 34 felonies. For now, his sentencing is scheduled for later this month. He’s already had one federal indictment in Florida dismissed, sparing him from a trial on whether he flouted U.S. law on protecting national security secrets. And he’s made clear he would use his power as president to spike the federal case against him for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. That would leave a Georgia racketeering case pending against Trump and others accused of trying to subvert the 2020 election result. It was the first time that a Republican presidential candidate overly courted males with a hypermasculine approach. About half of men went for Trump.     Republicans have claimed control of the Senate. The results will give Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress. Their hope is to win a House majority built mostly through key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from certain early today. (Source: Associated Press)
By Barrow

United States
6 Nov 2024  In Michigan, voters punished Harris for Middle East crisis. /Video/ (Source: Youtube / France 24)
Note: 1 583 views

Nov 6, 2024, 10:38 AM  Former President Trump secured the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House: The Hill. The former president won a convincing victory, flipping Georgia back into his column, holding North Carolina and shattering the 'blue wall.' The former president and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), capitalized on voter discontent with higher costs, a surge in migration at the southern border and instability abroad during the Biden administration to pitch voters on a return to his policies. (Source: Mehr - Iran)

6 Nov 2024  Abortion rights on the ballot in ten states and motivating voters across the US. Voters are deciding whether their state constitutions should guarantee a right to abortion, weighing ballot measures that are expected to spur turnout for a range of crucial races. Passing certain amendments in Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota likely would lead to undoing bans or restrictions that currently block varying levels of abortion access. The future legality and availability of abortion hinges not only on ballot measures, as policies could shift depending on who controls Congress and the presidency. (Source: France 24)

6 Nov 2024. Trump has won the battleground state of Georgia, the onetime Republican stronghold that had voted for Democrats four years ago. With his earlier win in North Carolina, Trump narrowed Harris’ pathways to victory and expanded his routes to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next president. /Video/ (Source: Youtube / France 24)
Note: 547 views

"Just now" (6 November 2024 10:14 CET)  Trump has declared victory over Harris in the US presidential election as he stands on the cusp of a historic White House political comeback. The Republican told his ecstatic supporters at a campaign party in Florida that they would usher in “a new golden age for America”. The BBC's US partner CBS projects Trump has vaulted to a commanding lead in the seven battleground states that will decide the winner of the election. Trump is projected to win the key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. CBS says Wisconsin is leaning towards Trump and he is ahead in the other so-called Rust Belt state of Michigan. The results are not final. He also has a lead in Nevada, while the race remains tight in the other sun belt battleground of Arizona. As expected, Trump has swept conservative strongholds from Florida to Idaho, while Harris won liberal states from New York to California, CBS projects. He would be the first former president to return to the White House in more than 130 years. The Democrat had been expected to address a crowd on election night at Howard University in Washington DC, where she was an undergraduate, but it emerged after midnight that she would not appear. Following the announcement by campaign co-chairman Richmond, the crowd all but disappeared from Harris HQ at the historically black college. CBS exit poll data suggests Vice-President Harris – who was hoping to become America’s first woman president and campaigned heavily for abortion rights - may have under-performed with women. Some 54% of female voters cast their ballots for her. In more good news for Trump, his party is projected to win majority control of the Senate. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
by "Sheerin"

6 Nov, 2024 08:50 AM  Trump, 78, has claimed a comprehensive victory over Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.and promises to return to the White House to deliver “the golden age of America”. Trump has won North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania and looks likely to make a clean sweep of all the vital swing states. Fox News has called the election for Trump, while CNN says he is 'poised to clinch' victory. Trump declared himself the 47th President in a speech to party faithful at an event at West Palm Beach in Florida, flanked by wife Melania and son Barron. “I want to tell you what a great honour this is … America’s future will be bigger, bolder than it ever has been before, Trump said, in his victory speech on stage at his home base of Mar-a-Lago. "We're going to try to unite ... success will bring us together. I saw that in the first term." “We had a great first term… I have a simple moto: Promises made, promises kept". “This is the most important job in the world". “I’ll never do a rally again, can you believe it?” Trump said, estimating he’d done 900 of them. “I will not rest until we have delivered the strong safe and prosperous America that we deserve”. He also addressed the July assassination attempt, telling supporters: “God spared my life for a reason, and that reason was to save this country.”  “We are the party of common sense,” Trump said. “We had everybody and it was beautiful,” Trump said of all the different groups and ethnicities that came together to support him. "We're going to help our country heal... we made history for a reason tonight," Trump says on stage for his victory speech at Mar-a-Lago. “Every citizen, I will fight for you … with every breath in my body. I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that we deserve. „I want to thank my beautiful wife Melania, first lady, who has the number one best-selling book in the country.” "She works very hard to help people." "I want to thank my amazing children." “Winning the popular vote was very nice I tell ya. A feeling of love with unbelievable people beside me… they’ve made the journey with me,” he says. Trump has thanked his running mate Vance and praised him as a “feisty guy”. “He goes in and absolutely obliterates” the media companies Trump says he has sent him to talk to. Vance, speaking, was describing Trump’s win as the greatest political comeback in American history. "He's turned out to be a good choice," Trump says of Vance.  "I took a little heat initially", but he has a "good brain", Trump was paying tribute to his friend and the boss of the UFC, White. And Trump pays tribute to Musk who endorsed him. “A star is born: Elon. He’s an amazing guy. We spent two weeks in Pennsylvania campaigning,” Trump said “He sent that rocket up. When it left, it was beautiful.” Trump is describing the catch-landing of Musk’s Space X rocket - not on the ground but caught by a launch tower. “This spaceship came down… it looked like it was over, the fire was coming out from the right side. And it came down so gently, those arms like holding a baby,” Trump said. Trump asked who else could land a rocket, and said Musk confirmed Russia or no one else could. “He’s a super genius, we have to protect them, we don’t have that many.” 'That's why I love you, Elon.' “These are hard-working people,” Trump said of his team and supporters. He thanked Kennedy Jr., who ran as an independent candidate before pulling out and supporting him. Trump said Kennedy was going to help “make America healthy again". Kennedy is a vocal opponent of vaccination. Trump on immigration: “We’re going to seal up those borders,” he said. “They [immigrants] have to come in legally.” Trump says he hopes his supporters will view voting for him as one of the great moments of their life. He is projecting he will win 315 electoral votes. World leaders have already congratulated Trump on his victory in the US presidential election: Australia: PM Albanese; France: President Macron; Israel: PM Netanyahu; New Zealand: PM Luxon; Ukraine: President Zelenskyy; United Kingdom: PM Starmer. (08:58 am): Fox News says it has no evidence there has been a phone call from Harris to Trump to concede the election. (Source: The New Zealand Herald)

6 November 2024 8:47 CET) ("27 minutes ago"):  Trump: "A political victory our country has never seen before. Watch Trump address his jubilant supporters as he claims victory in the US presidential election. /Video/ (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

November 6, 2024, Wednesday // 09:04 ("59 minutes ago"):  Trump defeats Harris in 2024 election, "Fox News projected Trump as the victor over Harris". In the end, the campaign pitted two markedly different visions for America’s future, with Harris and the Democrats casting Trump as a threat to democratic principles, while Trump maintained that he was best positioned to rectify perceived wrongs. His hard-hitting slogan, "Harris broke it, Trump will fix it," encapsulated his campaign’s message. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

2024-11-06 08:41  Trump has claimed victory in the 2024 US presidential election, declaring himself the 47th president after securing 267 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. With key battleground states such as Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin still in play, Trump’s lead continues to grow. As of now, he holds a commanding 64.7 million votes (51.2%) in the popular vote, while Harris has garnered 59.9 million votes (47.4%). Republicans are also poised to secure both chambers of Congress, strengthening the prospects for Trump’s legislative agenda. (Source: Shafaq News)

06/11/2024 - 7:22  'The Democratic candidate has won the New York race and secured the state’s 28 Electoral College votes'. The Associated Press declared Harris the winner at 3:00 am CET. /Video/ (Source: Euronews - Headquartered in Lyon, France)

(Wednesday), Nov 6, 2024 12:41 IST  Republican candidate Trump inches closer to victory against Democrat Harris. He has already won three of the seven swing states. Trump is heading to the Florida Convention Centre and will address his supporters. He will be visiting Palm Beach shortly after he cemented his victory in North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, four of the seven swing states that more or less sealed the victory for him in the US Presidential elections. Trump was spotted at Mar-a-Lago resort with Musk, White. Vice President was cancelling her speech at her ’lama mater’, Howard University. She was scheduled to speak at the university on Tuesday night, but will now speak tomorrow, said Harris campaign co-chair Richmond. The mood of the faculty and the students at the university became sombre as Trump's numbers continued to swell on Tuesday. According to the latest trends, Trump is leading the race with 248 electoral votes compared to Harris's 214. (Source: India Today)

Globalization

6th November 2024  Calling it a Trump victory, boost for bitcoin. Bitcoin has reacted swiftly to the results of the U.S. presidential election, with Trump clinching victory and reclaiming the Oval Office. Trump’s stance on Bitcoin has been a supportive one, and the crypto community is celebrating his win as a potential positive for digital assets. The price of Bitcoin touched a record $75,000, marking a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency that has spent much of the year trading below $70,000. As of today morning, the price of Bitcoin touched a record peak, trading at $74,392, up 7% after an overnight surge. The reaction is emblematic of how Bitcoin and financial markets often respond to major political events, with Bitcoin’s price volatility influenced by investor sentiment around potential policy changes. Bitcoin’s recent price rally is consistent with the cryptocurrency’s performance in past election years. In 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin saw returns of approximately 87%, 44%, and 145% in the 90 days following Election Day, respectively. These surges are not coincidental; election years often align with Bitcoin’s halving cycle - a process that reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, effectively lowering the supply and increasing scarcity. The post-election surges in Bitcoin have also tended to coincide with shifts in Federal Reserve policy. With a newly elected government, investors often expect changes in monetary policy direction. The Bitcoin community has long had a favourable view of Trump due to his relatively open stance on decentralised finance (DeFi) and cryptocurrencies. He’s generally been less restrictive than other politicians. During his previous term, Trump showed a willingness to reduce regulatory constraints on the financial sector, a sentiment that extended to crypto. Now, the likelihood of regulatory clarity—without harsh restrictions - is seen as beneficial for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. In addition, with Republicans in control of the Senate, a more conservative fiscal policy could encourage the preservation of wealth in alternative assets like Bitcoin, especially given the growing concerns around the U.S. dollar. The U.S. government deficit has been a major concern for both parties, with the deficit rising 8% in the 2024 fiscal year to $1.8 trillion. Further tax cuts promised by Trump during his campaign could add to this deficit, potentially weakening the dollar over time. For many, Bitcoin is a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, as it operates outside of traditional monetary policy constraints, and investors seek alternatives to the dollar. In the current scenario, market participants are eyeing the potential for further interest rate cuts from the Fed, which could further fuel Bitcoin’s appeal. Lower interest rates generally weaken the dollar. The Fed’s approach to interest rates will be a crucial factor in Bitcoin’s future performance. As inflation concerns continue, the Fed has signalled that it may be inclined to ease rates further but is moving cautiously to avoid making any policy errors. Market players widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut in the near future. Reduced interest rates decrease the appeal of traditional savings, driving investors toward high-growth assets like Bitcoin. With its fixed supply and decentralized nature, Bitcoin fits this requirement well, and a dovish Fed only amplifies its attractiveness as a hedge. China’s economic health plays a critical role in markets, including Bitcoin. Recently, China’s services sector recorded its fastest growth in three months, with the Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index rising to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September - a positive indicator for global demand. Any positive signals from China’s economy often spill over into global markets, indirectly supporting risk assets. Oil prices have shown a slight dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump’s victory. OPEC+ recently delayed plans to increase production, reflecting concerns over weak demand and growing supply from non-OPEC sources. Libya’s resumed production has added supply, balancing out some of the cuts from OPEC members like Iraq. In addition, Iran has announced plans to increase its oil output by 250,000 barrels per day. Market dynamics, especially related to OPEC+ production decisions and the stability in the Middle East, will influence oil prices in the short term. The combination of Trump’s election win and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties creates a complex backdrop for oil prices. Trump’s stance on energy independence may favour U.S. oil producers, potentially leading to higher production domestically. (Source: Financial Mirror – Cyprus)
by Aslam, Chief Investment Officer  - Zaye Capital Markets.

.4 11 6 09:38

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Europe

Hungary
Meeting of the European Political Community on 7 November 2024 in Budapest, Hungary will provide ample opportunities for bilateral or multilateral meetings during the day. The European Political Community aims to foster political dialogue and cooperation to address issues of common interest, to strengthen the security, stability and prosperity of the European continent. The global economy is heading towards fragmentation, impacting economic models. The fifth summit of the European Political Community will bring together leaders from across the continent to discuss the security challenges Europe is facing, issues related to Russia’s war against Ukraine, economic security and connectivity in terms of energy, transport, IT and global trade, all aspects of migration, including irregular migration and its instrumentalization, the ongoing escalation of deadly violence in the Middle East, conflicts and instability on the rise in Africa - all, that is putting peace, stability and prosperity at risk in our region. Discussions will begin with a morning plenary session on the security challenges, followed by four breakout sessions on the topics of migration and economic security. The chairs of each roundtable will report on the discussions at the second plenary session. The EU is represented by the President of the European Council, Michel. 47 heads of state and government were invited to take part in this fifth meeting. (Source: European Council)

November 7, 2024 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has hailed Trump's stunning comeback, as a "spectacular victory" and one of the "greatest comebacks in Western political history". Orbán was the first EU leader who openly endorsed Trump in 2016 and in the last two campaigns as well. Trump’s victory is expected to boost his ’radical’ rightwing agenda and widen his diplomatic room for manoeuvre. The Hungarian premier followed election night from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, where he was attending the summit of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS). Orbán was awarded this year’s Supreme Order of the Turkic World by Kyrgyz President Zhaparov. "Mar-a-Lago calling. Just had my first phone conversation with President @realDonaldTrump since the elections. We have big plans for the future," he tweeted. At the OTS summit, Orbán praised the Republican leader for overcoming significant challenges, from legal battles to media opposition, and viewed his win as a morale boost for those "who believe in will, struggle, and perseverance". He stated plans to strengthen US-Hungarian ties, anticipating that Trump’s administration will revive the "golden era" after the Republican leader's first victory. He expressed hope that Trump’s approach could shift the global balance towards peace efforts. At the summit, Orbán called for a new EU strategy on Ukraine, questioning Europe’s ability to support it independently. He suggested that today’s summit in Budapest, bringing together 47 European leaders, including President Zelenskyy, could address this issue. One major topic is expected to be the €50bn loan package designated for Ukraine, which may require reassessment in light of potential shifts in US policy. Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó also echoed Orbán’s optimism. He cited shared views on peace, immigration, and family policy, suggesting these alignments offer the best chance for peace in Ukraine after nearly three years of conflict. 'Despite the potential political advantages, Trump’s economic policies could prove detrimental to Hungary's interests, economists warned'. Concerns have been raised that Trump’s ’isolationist’ and protectionist measures could negatively impact Hungary’s export-dependent economy. 'Rising' US bond yields could have a major impact on monetary policy. The forint hit a new two-year low yesterday morning, trading at 412 against the euro, with bond yields rising and some analysts even believe that the Hungarian National Bank could be forced to raise rates if the currency slide continues. Yesterday, US Ambassador Pressman criticised Orbán’s actions, her frequent smear campaign targets, accusing him of treating the U.S. presidential election like a game of chance. ’Goodbye, Mr. Pressman, we will miss you!’ Fidesz faction leader Menczer wrote gleefully on social media. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Berlin)
by Csonka

The European Political Community

Thursday 7 November 2024 07:37, UK  The European Political Community - which holds summits of every six months - was set up as a chance for the EU27 to meet wider partners such as the UK, Turkey and Caucasus nations to discuss key security challenges including conflict and irregular migration. The summit is hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Trump on the agenda as European leaders convene in Budapest. Hungary holds the rotating Presidency of the Council on the European Union in 2024 and Mr Orbán is delighted by Mr Trump's victory. Mr Orbán is regarded with suspicion by the rest of the EU because of his ties to Mr Putin. He told journalists at the European Parliament last month, he would be opening "several bottles of champagne if Mr Trump comes back". Mr Orbán is also a supporter of a negotiated solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while most of the rest of the EU largely supports the integrity of Ukraine. The US result is likely to completely overshadow the discussions, as Mr Trump's approach to Ukraine - and whether he will try to force a peace plan in which the Ukrainians must give up territory - will dominate the agenda. We may get the first signals of how Europe will respond the events across the Atlantic. President Zelenskyy is attending. The migration session will be chairing by UK’s PM Mr Keir Starmer who will announce three new intelligence-sharing agreements with Balkan nations to crack down on people smuggling. But defence considerations are likely to be front and centre, with the prospect of the US disengaging from Europe, and pressure on NATO members who are not yet meeting the 2% defence spending target to step up. In a sign of the already changed atmosphere, the German defence minister, who met his French counterpart yesterday, said after Mr Trump's victory: "They'll be able to do less in Europe. We need to fill this gap to be more credible in terms of deterrence.’ A strategic debate on transatlantic relations will be held at a dinner set to be attended by European leaders today evening. (Source: Sky News)
by ’Cohen

.4 11 7

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Europe

Hungary
November 05, 2024 08:33 GMT  One of the highlights of Hungary's rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of this year will come on November 7 as the Hungarian capital is hosting the summit of the European Political Community (EPC) - a political forum bringing together the leaders of almost all European states (bar Belarus, Russia, and the Vatican). Hungarian PM Orbán is getting his big moment: that evening and the next day, there will be a meeting of the 27 EU heads of government to mainly discuss how to make the bloc more competitive. Will Orbán unveil a big surprise? As the U.S. presidential race on November 5. is expected to be a tight affair, it's possible the winner may still not be known by the time the leaders gather on the morning of November 7        The formal part of the EPC will last just a few hours, with a short plenary dealing with security challenges. That will be followed by breakout sessions focusing on migration and economic security before concluding with a second plenary. What really matters at the summit is the chance for some diplomatic speed dating in an informal setting - something the leaders reportedly love about the EPC format.        A document, „devised by Michel’, called the Budapest Declaration On The New European Competitiveness Deal. The draft, which Michel is hoping the leaders will endorse, notes that the EU's share of world gross domestic product (GDP) has halved over the last two decades, that retail prices for industrial electricity in the EU are three times higher than for the other major world economies, and that "as a share of GDP, the EU spends one-third less on research and development than other major economies in the OECD." Some EU member states think the 10-page document is too long; some are furious that it mentions the next long-term EU budget (always a fraught discussion, as it concerns who pays how much); and others are peeved that it mentions convergence on taxation, another sensitive topic. Others are not happy about what the document has left out: for example, support for nuclear energy or more European defense spending. The age-old Brussels problem is agreeing on a way forward on anything. "We are in a hostile, global environment in which we rightly have identified that we need to become more competitive on every level, yet we get stuck arguing about commas and bullet points in a document few [people] will read,' one diplomat told.        An issue to be discussed at the EPC, and particularly the informal EU summit, will be the October 26 Georgian parliamentary elections. They were won by the ruling Georgian Dream party. The EU is divided on how to respond and whether or not the vote was free and fair. Even OSCE/ODIHR election observers hadn't pronounced whether or not the elections were free and fair. Who will represent Tbilisi at the EPC summit? At the last one, at Blenheim Palace in the United Kingdom in July, it was Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze. It is Budapest that handles the invitations. Don't be surprised if Orbán wants his ally from Georgian Dream present. In last year's release of its annual enlargement report, the EU executive European Commission  for Georgia proposed granting candidate status. In this year’s report, presented by the European Commission on October 30, the EU executive prioritized a report on improving civilian and defense preparedness. It tells you quite a lot about how much importance the bloc’s executive gives to further enlargement at this point. How hard the EU executive would be on Georgia? Last time around, the EU executive gave Tbilisi nine conditions in various policy fields to complete in order to start accession talks. Here, Brussels simply concluded that the South Caucasus republic had made ’insignificant progress’ and noted ’a lack of sufficient political commitment of the authorities’ to undergo necessary reforms. Citing the recent adoption of the controversial "foreign influence" law, similar to Russia's "foreign agent" law, and anti-LGBT laws, as well as "strong anti-EU narratives from Georgian officials," the document concluded that the the EU executive 'will not be in a position to consider recommending opening negotiations with Georgia.’ The truth is that the bloc is unsure of how to read the Georgian elections on October 26. The EU is divided on this. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán raced down to Tbilisi to congratulate his political allies, while Europe ministers from 15 EU member states issued a statement at least questioning the fairness of the vote and underlining that Orbán wasn't speaking on behalf of the bloc. ’These divisions will make potential future sanctions’ on Georgia's current leadership hard to agree on. Hungary, and probably also Slovakia, will be vetoing them. ’And then there is the issue of actually finding some offense that is sanctionable, pinpointing it on high-enough officials, and then backing it up with evidence. Right now, that seems like a tall order for Brussels’ EU executive European Commission. What is left, ’apart from cutting more funds to Tbilisi, is to suspend visa liberalization’, which only requires a qualified majority of member states to back. The EU will be discussing this at the informal EU summit in Budapest next week and when EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels later in November. But is there really an appetite to punish the entire population?!        So, what about the more positive aspects of the EU executive reports?     There was happy reading for Albania. Earlier in October, Tirana opened its first cluster of accession chapters, and in December the Eu executive hopes that member states will open yet another batch. It also endorses the country's highly ambitious goal to close accession negotiations by the end of 2027.    The seemingly hopeless case of Bosnia’s accession talks: It so far have failed with basic conditions such as appointing a chief negotiator to the EU talks, a team during those talks, and a national plan to transpose EU laws to the national legislation - reflecting Sarajevo's dysfunctional internal politics in which the country's entities can rarely agree on any way forward.    And the seemingly hopeless case of Pristina's EU application: It is languishing in the European Council, where member states still aren't too keen to send it over to the EU executive - the European Commission - for an opinion on membership feasibility; at least not before the February parliamentary elections in the country.    The EU executive hopes that Chisinau further steps up anti-corruption and "de-oligarchization".     There was also happy reading for Montenegro which has already opened all 30+ chapters. The EU executive hopes that some chapters actually can be closed by the end of the year, and that talks conclude at the end of 2026, a bridge too far.     And the seemingly hopeless case of North Macedonia which remains stuck as long as it doesn't change its constitution according to Bulgaria's wishes, something that doesn't look likely to happen anytime soon.    Serbia? For the third year running, the the EU executive recommends that Belgrade should be allowed to open more EU accession chapters. This is something that Hungary, which currently holds the rotating EU Presidency of the European Council is keen on as well. Don't rule out that Budapest might want to trade a green light for Serbia moving ahead in late 2024 with giving its OK to Ukraine sometime in 2025.    And then there is President Zelenskiy, who is poised to make his first visit to Hungary since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Zelenskiy and Orbán have sparred on numerous occasions, notably on Hungary's reluctance to channel more EU funds to Kyiv and skepticism toward Ukraine's EU and NATO membership. The the EU executive hopes Kyiv needs to keep on fighting organized crime and continue to improve legislation for national minorities.        So the U.S. election isn't the only interesting news. And this week there are also the hearings in the European Parliament for the proposed new European commissioners. The hearing of the enlargement commissioner-designate, Kos, is taking place on November 7.         A discussion paper on migration ahead of the EPC meeting notes that the priority in this area will mainly be the fight against human smuggling and trafficking. The paper also notes that "we need to be extremely vigilant not to allow people in conflict areas to become tools in the hands of hostile regimes in a hybrid war. We must be equally determined to counter the phenomenon where nonstate actors willingly or not willingly become collaborators of criminal organizations." The document is underlining that "we should ensure solid mechanisms for effective returns, especially for the removal of those who pose a serious threat to public order or internal security. We should also continue to explore innovative solutions as possible ways forward, including the idea of developing return hubs outside Europe." (Source: Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty - U.S.)
by „Jozwiak, an Europe editor for RFE/RL, in Prague.

North America

United States
Tue 5 Nov 2024 10.25 CET  Reform UK leader Farage, a friend of Trump says ex-president should accept result, ‘go and play golf' at Turnberry in Scotland, if he loses to Harris’ but added that the Democratic candidate should pardon him. He said he hoped there would be no unrest after the result. Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts and is facing sentencing later in November for 'falsifying business records over payments to the adult' film star Daniels days before his victorious 2016 election. Farage, who has criticised Labour activists for travelling to campaign for Harris, said: 'If she gets in on Tuesday I hope she pardons him. She could look magnanimous and it would dampen down potential tensions. “It’s all hypothetical and I still think he is going to win,” he said. Farage attended Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania yesterday, a key swing state where both candidates held rallies the day before the election. “I just hope to God it’s a clear result. It is nearly a quarter of a century ago we had the hanging chads and dimpled chads and here we are 25 years on with huge questions about how Americans conduct elections. I find it incredible’, he told the Telegraph. Farage also said he hoped Trump would bring in Musk, the owner of X and Tesla, to make big cuts to US spending, saying that was aligned with Reform UK’s thinking in Britain. “This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80% of the staff,” Farage said. “There are going to be mass layoffs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond. “Because that’s what Reform UK believes in – that we’re overbureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting.” Farage also attended the Republican national convention in Milwaukee in July. His entry in the MPs’ register of interests says the near-£33,000 costs for him and a staffer were paid for by a Thai-based British businessman, Harborne. Farage listed the purpose of the trip as “to support a friend who was almost killed and to represent Clacton [his constituency] on the world stage”. (The Guardian – United Kingdom)

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Europe

Spain
Monday, 4 November 2024, 4:35  King Felipe and Queen Letizia have issued a public thank you to all world leaders who expressed condolences and solidarity with Spain after the country was hit by massive floods. The King and Queen took to social media to send a message in Spanish and English. They said: “Our deep gratitude to all Heads of State, authorities and international leaders for their messages of condolence, consultation, support and solidarity with the Spanish people due to the devastating consequences of ’Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos’ (DANA). “Their words of affection and brotherhood make us feel accompanied in this terrible tragedy that is ravaging our country.” The UK’s King Charles was one of many royals and world leaders who sent supportive messages after the flooding that devastated Spain. “My wife and I were utterly heartbroken to learn of the destruction and devastation following the catastrophic flooding in Southern and Eastern Spain. So many in the United Kingdom have strong, personal ties to Spain, and our nations are bound by so much that we have in common,” he said. “We extend our most sincere and heartfelt condolences to you and to the people of Spain for the tragic loss of so many lives. Our special thoughts, prayers and deepest possible sympathy are with all those who have lost loved ones and livelihoods this terrible week.” Valencia is the hardest hit region by what has been called one of the worst floods in European history. Towns are buried by mud and at least 217 people have died. Many more are still missing. Spain has sent tens of thousands of troops to help in the region. (Source: Royal Central)

Caspian Sea

Monday, November 4, 2024  Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan are conducting a two-day joint naval exercise named AZIREX 2024, hosted by Iran’s Navy in Bandar Anzali in northern Iran, focusing on search and rescue operations in the Caspian Sea. The exercise features various naval units from the Iranian and Azerbaijani navies, alongside units from the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps Navy and the Iranian National Police Marine Command. The Azerbaijani Navy’s rescue vessels, G129 and A640, arrived in Iranian territorial waters today to participate. During a briefing session held after the Azerbaijani vessels docked, the Deputy Operations Officer of the Iranian Navy, Rear Admiral Taj al-Dini, emphasized the importance of coordination in executing scenarios, combat organization, execution phases, support, communications, and safety. The exercise includes various drills, such as aiding distressed vessels, providing medical and emergency assistance, conducting search and rescue operations, and ensuring navigational safety. The primary objective of AZIREX 2024 is to strengthen sustainable collective security and cooperation among participating countries, demonstrate goodwill, and showcase capabilities in supporting peace, friendship, and maritime security, he added. (Source: Iran Gront Page – Iran)

North America

United States
4 November 2024  Two of the top issues that were said to have favoured Republicans going into this election cycle was the economy and immigration. While Vice President Harris promised to get tougher on that issue, former president Trump held a hardline stance promising mass deportations – the largest in US history he said – and an end to birthright citizenship if he takes the win. /Video/ (Source: Youtube / France24 - France)
Note: On 5 November 2024: 450 views

2024./11/4  Democratic campaigner producer Virji takes on Harris’s road to the election /Video/ (Source: Al Jazeera – Qatar): https://tinyurl.com/yc7eus6t

(Monday), November 4, 2024 6:40 AM CET  More than 160 million Americans are heading to the polls for Tuesday’s election. The result will be historic: ’either the maverick Trump will return to power, bent on “retribution” against his enemies after a four-year hiatus', or America will elect its first ’woman president’. The candidates are focused on seven critical swing-state contests: in a group of states - in the so-called Sun Belt such as Arizona and Nevada, and declining former industrial heartlands in the Rust Belt states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.    ’Senior Harris officials argued over the weekend that 'internal campaign data showed the vice president winning over late-deciding voters by a double-digit margin’. Harris for her part claimed at a rally in Michigan, a Rust Belt swing state, that ’her campaign was gathering ’momentum.’ ’ ’A New York Times/Siena College poll, released yesterday, also found’ those voters who had settled on their decisions recently backed Harris ’by a double-digit advantage’. ’A separate poll in the Des Moines Register over the weekend found Harris narrowly leading Trump in Iowa’, a state previously regarded as a safe bet for the Republican candidate. ’Research combining a 'mega poll' of 31,000 people with separate swing states surveys also indicated tentatively that Harris was best placed to win’.     Later on Sunday at a rally in North Carolina, another swing state, Trump suggested to the crowd that he was still in Pennsylvania. He also told a fictional story about the Al Capone, the Chicago gangster who died in 1947, and “MyPillow” CEO Lindell having dinner together, in which prominent Trump supporter Lindell offered Capone pillows. “If he didn’t sleep well because he didn’t like Mike’s pillows, Mike had almost no chance of living,” Trump said; Mike does not want to have dinner with Scarface. Pennsylvania, is perhaps the most vital of all, with 19 electoral college votes up for grabs - the largest number of any of the seven battleground states. On Sunday, Trump held a rally in Pennsylvania. He said he should “never have left” the White House, in a continuation of his claim that he won the 2020 election. He suggested someone should “shoot through” the “fake news” media’. (Source: Politico – U.S.)
'by Ross'

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Asia

China
On Nov 3, 2024  The skies above Zhuhai are set to host an unprecedented showcase featuring the Russian Su-57 fighter jet, the Chinese J-15, and the stealthy J-35A. This year’s Zhuhai Air Show, held in Guangdong Province, South China, has captured the keen interest of Chinese media, which highlights the significance of these three aircraft. /Video - China/ (Source: BulgarianMilitary - Bulgaria)
by Nikolov

Gaza
November 3, 2024, 9:07 AM  Palestinian officials say an Israeli drone strike on a clinic in northern Gaza where children were being vaccinated for polio wounded six people yesterday, including four children. The Israeli military denied responsibility. At least 100,000 people have been forced to evacuate from areas of north Gaza toward Gaza City in the past few weeks, but around 15,000 children under the age of 10 remain in northern towns, including Jabaliya, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun, which are inaccessible, according to the U.N. The final phase of the polio vaccination campaign had aimed to reach an estimated 119,000 children in the north with a second dose of oral polio vaccine, the agencies said, but “achieving this target is now unlikely due to access constraints.' They say 90% of children in every community must be vaccinated to prevent the spread of the disease. (Source: ABC News U.S. / Associated Press - U:S.)

Iran
November 3, 2024  More than 3,000 Afghan migrants are being deported daily from Iran’s Dogharoun border crossing, according to Sharafi-Rad, the director of foreign nationals and migrants affairs in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province. This year’s deportations represent a 40 percent increase compared with last year. The official said that detaining, gathering, and deporting Afghan migrants remains a priority for the Iranian government through the end of this year. Iran’s crackdown on Afghan migrants is mirroring similar actions by Pakistan. Some Afghan refugees in both countries have reported mistreatment by local police, describing practices that they say violate basic protections for asylum seekers. (Source: Amu Tv - U.S.)

Israel
Nov 3, 2024, 9:00 AM  Channel 12 announced in a report that since October 7 last year, 26,360 rockets have been fired at occupied Palestine from the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen. (Source: Mehr - Iran)

North America

United States
3 Nov 2024 US Election 2024 in 20 maps.  The maps offer an overview of the economy, demographics, geography and history of the country of 335 million people. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

(Sunday), Nov 3, 2024, 11:37 AM  The US flew a long-range bomber in a trilateral drill with South Korea and Japan today in response to North Korea’s recent test-firing of a new intercontinental ballistic missile designed to strike the US mainland. North Korea on Thursday tested the newly developed Hwasong-19 ICBM, which flew higher and stayed in the air longer than any other missile it has fired. Today's drill mobilised the US’ B-1B nuclear bomber, South Korea’s F-15K and KF-16 fighter jets, and Japan’s F-2 jets. South Korea and Japan’s jets escorted the US strategic bomber to a designated location south of the Korean peninsula. It was the fourth time this year the nuclear bomber was deployed to the Korean peninsula, and the second time for a trilateral aerial exercise to counter Pyongyang’s military threats. (Source: Mehr - Iran)

(Sunday), 3 Nov 2024  More than 73 million Americans have already cast ballots as of Saturday, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida. Harris and Trump are locked in a dead heat in several swing states. What polls say? FiveThirtyEight’s latest poll tracker showed Harris ahead by a very slim 1 point, within the margin of error. Harris’s average is 47.9 percent against Trump’s 46.9 percent. Campaigning in the city of Charlotte in North Carolina, Harris made a passionate appeal to young voters, a Democrat-leaning demographic, to head to the polls. Past elections, however, have shown that fewer of them showed up to vote compared with older voters. Trump used his evening rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, to take credit for declining trust in United States media. “The fake news back there, they were at 92 percent approval rating when we started this journey in 2015. And now they’re less than Congress, which is in the low 12s,” he said. “I’m very proud of that because I’ve exposed them as being fake.” (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

Nov 03, 2024  U.S.-China relations are among the most consequential in the world, impacting global stability and growth. The two have a shared responsibility to navigate and strive to resolve the problems of climate, economic development and conflict. the international community looks to these two powers to foster a more balanced and cooperative relationship. What the U.S. election outcome means for China? If Trump wins: Higher tariffs but pragmatic cooperation. He says he will impose higher tariffs on imported goods, especially those from China. He has indicated that he considered imposing a comprehensive tariff of 10 to 20 percent on all imported goods and a 60 percent or higher tariff on Chinese goods. In addition, if he selects a hawkish team to dominate U.S. policy, his administration likely will not only force Chinese enterprises to reduce exports to the United States but may also reduce non-governmental contacts between the two countries, such as educational and academic exchanges, thus impacting public perceptions on both sides. Trump may have to seek cooperation with China. He has repeatedly claimed that he has the ability to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours - or even before his inauguration. He is also promising to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although this claim is suspicious given the complexity of the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump cannot fulfill his promises without China’s help. He previously sought help on the North Korea nuclear issue, and at the end of 2016 China voted in favor of sanctions against the DPRK at the United Nations, demonstrating its important influence in regional affairs. China is the largest trading partner of both Russia and Ukraine. These close economic ties give China a unique opportunity to play a greater role in peace-making efforts. Similarly, in the Middle East, China is the region’s largest trading partner and has helped facilitate reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as the release of the Beijing Declaration by 14 Palestinian factions. China can potentially help Trump truly become a peace-making president. Trump is a pragmatic politician who focuses on solving specific problems. During his previous term, he completed the Phase One China-U.S. trade deal, showing a pragmatic attitude on economic issues such as the deficit problem and trade surplus. If Trump is re-elected, the two sides could further discuss subsidy policies, intellectual property protection, overcapacity issues, balance of trade and other things. This pragmatic strategy also means that Trump may value specific results over ideology. Therefore, in practice, Trump may choose to continue negotiations on economic issues to protect U.S. interests. Trump has a relatively open attitude toward Chinese investment in the United States and may take multiple measures to encourage or require Chinese enterprises to invest and set up factories there. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly stated that he hoped to encourage the return of the manufacturing industry through higher tariffs and welcomed foreign-funded enterprises to set up factories in the United States. Because of the China-U.S. trade war, a large number of Chinese enterprises that had wanted to enter the U.S. market set up factories in Mexico instead. Trump has said that if Chinese enterprises can adhere to U.S. requirements, he would welcome Chinese car manufacturers building factories in the United States. This would open up new space for China-U.S. economic cooperation. In contrast, the current administration’s policy in this regard is more conservative. It has even blocked investment by some Chinese enterprises. On the Taiwan issue, Trump may continue to maintain a pragmatic attitude, and the two sides may continue to communicate on the basis of maintaining the status quo. Trump has said that Taiwan should pay the United States for protection, explaining that it’s similar to buying insurance. If Trump comes to power, he may stick to the “one China” policy and reiterate the three communiques endorsed by all U.S. presidents in the past.    If Harris is elected, she will most likely inherit the policy of "competitive rivalry' established by the Biden administration and continue to adhere to the “investment, alliance, competition' trilogy, balancing China’s influence by strengthening relations with U.S. allies. Status quo with China and more certainty. Harris’s background in California and 'her knowledge of the Asian-American community gives her a certain understanding of the complexity of the China-U.S. relationship'. Harris came up in California, and China is California’s largest trading partner. The most economically developed state in the United States, California has more than 6 million Asian-Americans, of which about 2 million are Chinese-Americans. Her vice president, Walz, also has a rich knowledge of China. He previously worked as a teacher in China, knows the Chinese language, 'spent his honeymoon in China' and organized more than 30 study tours to China for American students. These experiences give Walz a direct understanding of Chinese culture and society, which may help the Harris administration to pay more attention to long-term communication and non-governmental sectors when managing the China-U.S. relationship. This may also help to avoid alienating Asian-Americans and other immigrant groups in the United States by imposing overly tough policies on China. (Source: China US Focus (published by the China-United States Exchange Foundation - Hong Kong)
by Wang, Founder, Center for China & Globalization

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Europe

Denmark
28.10.2024  Denmark's Danske Bank announced today that it will now allow investments in nuclear weapons production, citing 'geopolitical developments' as the primary reason, according to local media outlet Borsen. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Russia
(28 October 2024)  Sitrep for Oct. 25-28, 2024 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3). Russian tactics focus on targeting the least defended sections of the frontline. (Source: The Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) - Russia)

Asia

Israel
Oct 28, 2024 19:34 IST  Israel striked Iran. A total of 100 fighter jets carried out the attacks in three waves on 20 missile and drone facilities of Iran. For the strikes, Israel deployed its fifth generation F-35 Adir fighter jets, F-15I Ra'am ground attack jets, and F-16I Sufa air defence jets, which covered approximately 2,000 kilometres. Such long-distance strikes require refueling capabilities and a rescue unit was kept on high alert. The weapons of choice were the 'Rampage' long-range, supersonic missile and the 'Rocks' next generation extended stand-off air-to-surface missile. The Israeli army focused strictly on military targets and steered clear of targeting nuclear and oil facilities to prevent a wider conflict escalation. The first wave of attacks was on Iran's radar and air defence facilities, clearing the path for following strikes on military bases. Iran's missile and drone facilities were targeted in the second and third wave. The fighter jets carried out the strikes in groups of 25-30. While 10 jets conducted the coordinated missile strikes, the others provided cover and diversion. During the strikes, called 'Operation Days of Repentance', Israeli and US air defences were on high alert to handle retaliatory missile strikes. (Source: India Today)

NATO

(28/10/2024 16:50 PM)  'Today, I can confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, and that North Korean military units have been deployed to the Kursk region,' NATO Secretary-General Rutte told reporters. NATO officials and diplomats received a briefing from a South Korean delegation. (Source: DW - Germany)

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Russia
Sunday 27 October 2024 10:22  Rapid Russian advances have continued in the past week along the roughly 640-mile frontline. Russian forces are making swift and significant tactical advances into the eastern city of Selydove, less than 10 miles south of their main target, the larger city of Pokrovsk, a linchpin of the wider Donetsk region’s defences. Western intelligence officials are estimating that Russia has suffered monthly military personnel losses averaging between 1000 and 1,200 a month. Moscow was capturing around 300 square miles of territory since seizing the city of Avdiivka in February. The attack towards Pokrovsk has widened towards Toretsk and Niu-York, Ukraine, to the north and towards Kurakhove to the south. (Source: Independent – United Kingdom)

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Europe

Georgia
(26 October 2024)  Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party claims victory. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Asia

Israel
October 26, 2024 11:39  Israel launches airstrikes on Iran (2.30am Iran time), that hit military bases and missile sites, escalating tensions. (Source: Gulf News - United Arab Emirates)

North America

United States
10/26/2024  Over 36 million eligible Latino voters live in the US - more and more are currently turning their backs on the Democrats. /video/ (Source: DW - Germany)

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