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Europe
Russia
November 20, 2024 10:42 AM GMT+1 Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion. In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines. There may be room for negotiation over the precise carve-up of the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. While Moscow claims the four regions as wholly part of Russia, defended by the country's nuclear umbrella, its forces on the ground control 70-80% of the territory with about 26,000 square km still held by Ukrainian troops, open-source data on the front line shows. Russia may also be open to withdrawing from the relatively small patches of territory it holds in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions. Putin said this month that any ceasefire deal should reflect the "realities" on the ground but that he feared a short-lived truce which would only allow the West to rearm Ukraine. "If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine," Putin told the Valdai discussion group on Nov. 7. "Why? Because this would mean that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation." Outgoing U.S. President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American ATACMS missiles deep into Russia could complicate and delay any settlement - and stiffen Moscow's demands as hardliners push for a bigger chunk of Ukraine. Yesterday, Kyiv used the missiles to strike Russian territory, according to Moscow which decried the move as a major escalation. If no ceasefire is agreed, then Russia will fight on. "Putin has already said that freezing the conflict will not work in any way," Kremlin spokesman Peskov told Reuters hours before the Russians reported the ATACMS strikes. "And the missile authorisation is a very dangerous escalation on the part of the United States." "He is the only person who can bring both sides together in order to negotiate peace, and work towards ending the war and stopping the killing,” Trump's communications director Cheung told about the incoming U.S. president. Real estate billionaire Trump, author of the 1987 book "Trump: the Art of the Deal", has said he would speak directly to Putin in his efforts to forge a peace deal. Zelenskiy has said his country will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory - based on the borders it gained after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union - though top U.S. generals have said publicly that this is a very ambitious aim. On June 14, Putin set out his opening terms for an immediate end to the war: Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from the entirety of the territory of four regions claimed and mostly controlled by Russia. While Russia will not tolerate Ukraine joining NATO, or the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, it is open to discussing security guarantees for Kyiv. Other Ukrainian concessions the Kremlin could push for include Kyiv agreeing to limit the size of its armed forces and committing not to restrict the use of the Russian language. Simes, who emigrated to the United States from the Soviet Union in 1973 and is one of Russia's best-connected experts on America, said a ceasefire agreement could be struck relatively swiftly to end the war. But a wider, lasting deal that addressed both Ukraine and Russia's security concerns would be extremely challenging to forge, as the positions of the two sides are very far apart, he added. Russia controls 18% of Ukraine including all of Crimea, 80% of the Donbas and more than 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.It also holds just under 3% of the Kharkiv region and a sliver of Mykolaiv. In total, Russia has over 110,000 square km of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine holds about 650 square km of Russia's Kursk region. Domestically, Putin could sell a ceasefire deal that saw Russia hold onto most of the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as a victory that ensured the defence of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine and safeguarded the landbridge to Crimea. The future of Crimea itself is not up for discussion. One of the officials, a senior source with knowledge of top-level Kremlin discussions, said the West would have to accept the "harsh truth" that all the support it had given Ukraine could not prevent Russia from winning the war. Putin, a former KGB lieutenant colonel who watched the Soviet Union crumble while stationed in Dresden, took the decision to invade Ukraine himself with only limited counsel from a tiny group of trusted advisers. He will likewise have the deciding voice on any ceasefire. The Kremlin chief presents what he calls the "special military operation" in Ukraine as a watershed moment when Moscow finally stood up to what he sees as the arrogance of the West which enlarged NATO eastwards towards Russia's borders and meddled in the politics of what Moscow considers as its own backyard, including Georgia and, crucially, Ukraine. When asked what a possible ceasefire might look like, two of the Russian sources referred to a draft agreement that was almost approved in April 2022 after talks in Istanbul, and which Putin has referred to in public as a possible basis for a deal. Under that draft, Ukraine should agree to permanent neutrality in return for international security guarantees from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. One of the Russian officials said there would be no agreement unless Ukraine received security guarantees, adding: "The question is how to avoid a deal that locks the West into a possible direct confrontation with Russia one day." (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
by Faulconbridge, Moscow bureau chief
Ukraine
20 November 2024 ((22:15)) Ukraine has fired UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia. Kyiv was previously restricted to using the long-range missiles within its own borders. Storm Shadow is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of around 250km. The French call it Scalp. It is considered an ideal weapon for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores, such as those used by Russia in its war against Ukraine. It is launched from aircraft then flies at close to the speed of sound, hugging the terrain, before dropping down and detonating its high explosive warhead. The US and UK had previously not given permission, with suggestions this was related to not wanting to escalate the war. The government has refused to comment on the reports but officials confirmed Defence Secretary Healey spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart yesterday night. Ukraine's Defence Minister Umerov has also declined to confirm that his country has used the Storm Shadow missiles within Russian territory, but said it was ’using all the means' to defend the country. Miller, the US State Department’s spokesman, would also not comment on the use of the UK-supplied missile or whether the US was providing navigational assistance for their use. The US has approved sending landmines to Ukraine, too, in an attempt to slow down Russian troops. BBC Verify showed images on Telegram claiming to show fragments of a Storm Shadow missile in Kursk to weapons expert Kotlarski, Weapons Team manager at Janes, who said: ’We can confirm that the large, rectangular piece of debris, featuring a hole in the centre, does indeed match part of the mounting interface of the Storm Shadow / SCALP EG missile.’ (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
November 20, 2024, Wednesday // 10:07 The war in Ukraine could have ended in 2022 following the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv, but Western partners prevented such an outcome, according to Yaroslavsky, commander of an intelligence division in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Speaking on "Kyiv24," he stated that Ukraine's forces had the potential to bring the conflict to a conclusion. "This counteroffensive could have ended the war, but our partners did not allow us to do it because of their principles. At that time, we did not advance into the Belgorod region, and the war continues to this day. I am convinced it could have ended in 2022," Yaroslavsky said. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)
20 Nov, 2024 09:30 AM The US embassy in Kyiv warned today of a “potential significant air attack” and shuttered its doors, following Russia’s vow to respond after Ukraine fired longer-range US missiles at its territory. (Source: The New Zealand Herald / AFP - France)
Asia
Lebanon
20.11.2024 At least 13 people were killed in overnight airstrikes staged by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon. Fighter jets struck a home in Maarakeh town, killing two people. Two airstrikes in Kfar Melki and Zefta towns left at least four people dead. Three more people lost their lives in another attack in Ain Qana and four others in the village of Habbouch. Airstrikes and artillery shelling were also reported in Dibbine, Kafr Rumman Rihan, Shebaa, Ghandouriyeh, and Kafr Tebnit. The state news agency NNA said that the Israeli army was trying to advance into Kafrchouba hills in southern Lebanon amid fierce clashes with Hezbollah fighters. Yesterday Hezbollah carried out at least 34 attacks against Israeli targets in southern Lebanon and northern Israel. More than 3,500 people have been killed by Israeli attacks in Lebanon, with nearly 15,000 injured and more than a million displaced since last October, according to Lebanese health authorities. The US, Israel’s main ally, is mediating between Tel Aviv and Beirut to reach a cease-fire deal between Hezbollah and Israel. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)
Saudi Arabia
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 Tehran and Riyadh have reaffirmed their commitment to the China-brokered deal and to further consolidation of relations during a meeting of the Saudi-Chinese-Iranian Joint Tripartite Committee, held yesterday in Riyadh. The three countries called for an immediate end to the Israeli campaign of death and destruction in Palestine and Lebanon, condemning its attacks and violations of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. They further called for the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid and relief to Palestine and Lebanon, warning that the continuing cycle of violence and escalation is a serious threat to the security of the region and the world. The three countries reiterated their support for a comprehensive political solution in Yemen in line with internationally recognized principles under the auspices of the United Nations. (Source: Iran Front Page - Iran)
Turkey
November 20, 2024 Turkey, Greece and Trump. Insiders in Ankara point to the historically good relationship between Trump and Erdogan. The possibility that Trump’s election signals an end to American support for the Ukrainian war effort, president-elect’s desire to find a settlement to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict makes the hope that Turkey’s participation is essential. A closer cooperation with the United States on Ukraine could deliver breakthroughs on issues such as Turkey’s eviction from the F-35 program. And a United States more focused on competition with China could lead to greater American investment in Turkey and greater bilateral trade. Television moderators have even mused that Washington may be enticed into halting military assistance to Greece on the backs of improved Turkish-American relations. Trump’s second coming, by and large, is not seen as a welcome relief when it comes to issues that matter most to the country’s commentariat. It is hard to see how Ankara and Washington will see eye to eye when it comes to the situation in the Levant. Israel’s dual campaign in Gaza and Lebanon has enflamed Turkish public opinion and united the country’s leadership in anger. Both Erdogan’s supporters and antagonists see the establishment of a new Republican administration as a critical turn for the worse for Palestinians. There is a general agreement that the new American president is more likely to aid, than hinder, ongoing military Israeli operations. Trump’s election has only elevated the likelihood that Israel would play its euphemistic Kurdish card - the possibility that Israel would utilize Kurdish militants as proxies bent upon undermining Turkey from within. The solution, some have proposed, is to go on the offensive in Syria. ’Turkey is determined to clear the Syrian border of the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party],” one insider recently declared. 'It has been decided to control our borders to a depth of 30-40 kilometers. Both military and diplomatic pillars of this are being formed. What the Mexican border is for Trump, so is the Syrian border for Erdogan.’ Turkish faith in Trump’s willingness to go along with this plan, however, is generally modest. With the announced appointment of Waltz as Trump’s national security advisor, analysts have underscored the congressman’s past support for American joint operations with Kurdish forces in Syria. Offsetting the anxiety is a genuine satisfaction with the prospects facing the United States as a global power. The true significance of Trump’s victory, many appear to agree, is that the United States appears visibly weaker. Talk of the United States descending into chaos continues despite Trump’s victory. More specific hopes expressed are that the new administration would lead Washington to conduct a campaign to destroy ’the American deep state,” which critics pose is ’alternatively made up of military officers, Democrats, and Jews, that was the force that prevented Trump from fulfilling his promise to Turkey to withdraw American troops from Syria’. Trump’s ascendency, many agree, makes conflict with China more likely. In such an armed contest, commentators tend to agree that Beijing is the most likely to succeed. The sum result of such a scenario, as one columnist recently argued, would constitute the 'death announcement of the American Empire.” Trump’s return to power, as many see it, will weaken Washington and help speed the demise of the West as a global force. It is unclear how far these opinions reflect the views of Erdogan and his advisors. There were far fewer visible signs of apprehension or worry on the night of Trump’s victory. You will find little sorrow or remorse when it comes to Vice President Harris’ electoral defeat. In congratulating his “friend” on his triumph, Erdogan expressed his belief that Turkish-American relations would improve and that “regional and global crises and wars, especially the Palestinian issue and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end.” Many Turks see conditions getting worse in their region in the months ahead. Turkey and Greece continue to carry forward their mutual commitment to improving ties with one another, mutual respect and understanding. Where talks lead to in the future remains up the air. High-level discussions are planned for December and the new year. Speaking among domestic audiences, both sides do not appear willing to compromise on much. In both Ankara and Athens, critics have portrayed talks „as pre-emptive steps towards forfeiture of territory or sovereign rights’. Should talks break down, both Greece and Turkey may be left with a United States more distracted by affairs in Asia. Even more likely is the prospect that neither state fully trusts Washington with providing mediation on issues that separate the two capitals. In Europe, discussions appear to have already attained a frenetic pitch. Brussels and other capitals visibly fret over the possibility that the United States may withdraw its support for Ukraine or perhaps leave NATO altogether. Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister was among the first European leaders to congratulate Trump on his success, declaring his desire to deepen “the strategic partnership between our two countries.” Editors in Athens see a distinct possibility that Greek-American relations may in fact improve in the coming months and years ahead. Increased pressure from Washington on Europe’s largest and wealthier countries likely may lead smaller nations, like Greece, to seek stronger bilateral relations with the United States. A weakening European consensus not only would undermine calls for greater “strategic autonomy” among E.U. states, but place the region’s pursuit of economic growth and energy independence at risk. Optimists tend to agree that the country’s large merchant fleet could serve as a conduit for American natural gas producers seeking to ship to transatlantic customers. Greece’s Defense Ministry, together with government development agencies, could find greater avenues of cooperation with the United States. A number of factors are aiding Athens, such as the good relationship supposedly shared by Mitsotakis, Trump, and their spouses and the appointment of Rubio, with pro-Greek attitudes. There are pro-Greek sentiments found in Congress. Greek commentators have lamented the potential growth of populists in Europe, a phenomenon that potentially could jeopardize Mitsotakis’ hold on power. (Source: War on the Rocks - U.S.)
"Note: The views expressed are not those of the Naval Postgraduate School, the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government”.
by Gingeras, a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, an expert on Turkish, Balkan, and Middle East history, author of seven books.
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