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Europe
Germany
04.07.2025 Germany is in talks with the US to purchase Patriot missile systems and deliver them to Ukraine. Today, the Bild daily first reported on the topic. Germany will finance two Patriot air defense systems. Defense Minister Pistorius will travel to Washington in mid-July and discuss these matters with his counterpart. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
Poland
July 7, 2025 Poland is buying an insane number of tanks from South Korea. Is Poland 'preparing for war’? Warsaw assumes that the Russians will go hard against Poland after it takes over Ukraine, but there remains little hard evidence indicating Russia intends to do so. In 2022, Poland became South Korea’s most important defense customer, allegedly signing upwards of $22 billion in multi-system arms packages - included 180 K2 tanks, 212 K9 self-propelled howitzers, 48 FA-50 fighters, and several Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers. On July 2, Warsaw finalized a $6 billion export agreement with South Korea’s government. One of the most potent systems it is purchasing is South Korea’s K2 Black Panther Main Battle Tank (MBT). The deal involves as many as 180 tanks - making it Seoul’s largest single-weapon export deal to date. At least 63 of those 180 MBTs will be built in Poland in a joint agreement between South Korean manufacturer Hyundai Rotem and Polish defense conglomerate PGZ. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Weichert
European Commission
(Monday), July 7, 2025 2:23 pm CET Der Leyen appears before the European Parliament in Strasbourg today ahead of the first vote of confidence in a European Commission president since 2014, over her secret texts from 2021 with Bourla, the chief executive of pharmaceutical giant Pfizer. They related to discussions on getting vaccines to Europe at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. The vote itself is scheduled to take place on Thursday. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
(6 July 2025) Brussels says it will build up emergency stockpiles of critical minerals and cable repair kits as 'concerns mount over the EU’s vulnerability to attack'. Member states should co-ordinate backup supplies of food, medicines and even nuclear fuel, the European Commission said in a draft document setting out a stockpiling strategy. It would also accelerate work on EU-level stockpiles of items such as cable repair modules to ensure prompt recovery from energy or optical cable disruptions and commodities such as rare earths and permanent magnets, which are crucial for energy and defence systems. The EU in March also advised households 'to stockpile essential supplies to survive at least 72 hours of crisis'. The need for investment in critical stockpiling 'would also be considered in proposals for its new multiannual budget', which are due to be put forward later this month. 'Last month, General Breuer, the German chief of defence, warned that Russia could attack an EU member state within the next four years'. (Source: Financial Times - United Kingdom)
Ukraine
July 7, 2025 Ukraine withdraws from mine ban treaty, following the example of five other European nations bordering Russia. Kyiv announced its withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on June 29. Ukraine widely uses anti-vehicle mines not covered by the treaty. Russia is not a party to the treaty. Moscow has not confirmed it uses anti-personnel mines in Ukraine. Russian officials say Ukraine has already used such devices in the war. The United States approved the provision of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine in November. Frontline areas and pockets of the Kursk region just inside Russia are thickly contaminated with the small devices which explode when triggered by contact, vibration or tripwires. A bomb squad company commander from Ukraine's 59th brigade operating near the eastern city of Pokrovsk said a large rotary drone could be used to deploy up to 70 anti-personnel mines at a time. Kyiv's decision would put civilians at risk for years. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
United Kingdom
7 July 2025 Britain’s mainstream media have not carried out a single investigation into the extent, impact or legal status of the more than 500 surveillance flights over Gaza that the RAF has carried out since December 2023. The Ministry of Defence continues to insist that the operations, carried out by Shadow R1 aircraft based at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, are designed purely to assist with the discovery of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas on 7 October 2023. Spikes in the number of flights have coincided with especially deadly Israeli attacks on Gaza. The flights started operating in December 2023. Defence Review was announced earlier in June by Keir Starmer. Out of 993 stories on the “defence review” in UK media on 2 June, a tiny handful took the time even to acknowledge the existence of significant public opposition to increases in defence spending, particularly at the expense of cuts to public services. The vast majority of published criticism of Labour’s defence plans come from the Tories or military voices arguing that 'this is too little, too late' or that it isn’t clear where the money will come from. There is, apparently, no space for hard news content that investigates whether increased defence spending is either effective nor necessary. Meanwhile, the mainstream media’s continuing silence on RAF spy flights over Gaza is a flagrant abdication of their stated responsibility to ask tough questions of military planners. Far from holding power to account, mainstream media – through their silence and meekness – are allowing the government to get away with murder in Gaza. (Source: Declassified - United Kingdom)
by Freedman, a Professor of Media & Communications at Goldsmiths, University of London and a founding member of the Media Reform Coalition.
Europe
July 7, 2025 Can Europe defend itself without the United States? Besides rearmament, Europe must recognize that it needs to have its diplomatic channels to Moscow. Those who solely rely on rearmament to deter Russia ignore the fact that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the West was a sign of weakness, not strength. It was an attack that arose from a perceived defensive posture. Instead, to many in the West, Putin’s actions appear to be expressions of imperial interests, and his policy is seen as expansive. Any appearance of weakness must indeed be avoided in dealing with Russia. In the Russians’ worldview, not just Putin’s, the West exploited Russia’s weakness during the early and mid-1990s, when its economy was in a state of decline. This was despite Bush Senior’s promises against any eastward expansion of NATO. Besides Bush, declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders came from US Secretary of State Baker, German Foreign Minister Genscher, German Chancellor Kohl, French President Mitterrand, British Prime Minister Thatcher, British Foreign Secretary Hurd, British Prime Minister Major, and NATO Secretary-General Woerner. Russian leaders have repeatedly complained about NATO expansion, beginning with Putin’s predecessor, Yeltsin, who wrote to President Clinton that the expansion of NATO eastwards breached the spirit of the 1990 treaty. For Russians, the lesson was that only the interests of the strong are perceived and respected. There is a significant difference between an aggressor pursuing an imperialist and expansionist policy, and taking actions necessary to protect its interests and preserve its influence. Confrontation and harshness only reinforce the threat perception and set in motion a spiral of escalation. Negotiations and initiatives are needed to overcome the security dilemma. Building trust requires effort and open communication. Uncompromising toughness towards Russia, is the wrong answer when it comes to long-term peace and security. Many Putin sympathizers tend to underestimate the threat posed by an aggressive Russia, even if it is out of weakness. According to this perspective, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine originated from the West. Trump goes a step further and blames Ukraine for starting the war. The Putin sympathizers emphasize NATO’s expansion towards the East, encircling and constricting Russia, and view Moscow as being in a purely defensive posture, overlooking the fact that this can also manifest as an attack, which may have begun as defensive but has ultimately evolved into aggression. By annexing Crimea, intervening in eastern Ukraine and, since 24 February 2022, trying to conquer the entire Ukrainian territory, Russia has violated the European peace order and put military force back on the agenda as a political tool in Europe. Who guarantees that Moscow will not reuse military force in other respects? To argue, given the currently unsettled situation between Russia and the West, that Moscow poses no threat is not a demonstration of strategic foresight and is potentially dangerous in terms of security policy. Europe’s strategic interest is to establish a stable regional peace order that excludes the use of force and coercion between states and creates forums in which conflicting interests can be resolved through negotiation. From a European perspective, it is also a matter of involving and containing Russia, rather than driving it altogether into China’s sphere of Influence. To resolve the conflicts on the European periphery, Europe remains dependent on Russia, and everyone should be aware that in a war with Russia, Europe would be the battlefield. Two approaches are conceivable dealing with Russia and historically proven: “change through diplomatic rapprochement” and credible military deterrence. It means seeking new ways to resolve the security dilemma and foster new trust. There should be new efforts to develop a new security architecture that Moscow has long sought, one in which the interests of all parties are considered, with security among them, not against each other. This also means leaving no doubt that military aggression will not go unanswered and ensuring that credible military deterrents are also in place. With the United States withdrawing, Europe will need to decide how to preserve peace on the continent. In concrete terms, confidence-building measures could take the form of an official withdrawal of NATO accession promises to Ukraine and Georgia, which would result from a larger set of negotiations on a new security architecture. Other elements would include the revival of the 1999 Adapted Convention on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (ACFE) Treaty, which limits conventional armed forces in Europe but is adapted to post-Ukraine circumstances and establishes a military balance on the continent. The resumption of ACFE negotiations could be the prelude to a revival of the disarmament treaties. Europe’s current reliance on the US military to deter Russia is problematic due to differing transatlantic interests. A relatively unarmed Europe cannot pursue an independent Russia policy so long as Washington is seen as the only one that can provide the security guarantees sought by the Kremlin. The geopolitically-minded Putin, who is currently being made aware of the inadequacy of his military offensive in Ukraine and who is equally interested in curbing Russia’s overdependence on China, could over time be incentivized by Washington to stop his Ukraine war ’should Trump concede’ Ukrainian territories conquered by Russia and ease Western sanctions in return for Russia’s good behavior in other regions and on other issues important to the US. Europe, as a whole, could thus experience what the Eastern European states are historically familiar with, namely that their interests are sacrificed to a deal that the bigger powers make in their interest. The issue could now shift to establishing a credible deterrence without Washington’s involvement. ’Europeans also consider their military capabilities, independent of the United States, in both conventional and nuclear sectors, to prevent possible blackmail attempts or even aggression by the Russian leadership. In this way, European states could also minimize the risk of Moscow and Washington negotiating a deal in which the Europeans pay the primary price’. Today’s advocates for peace would do well to remember that détente succeeded not despite rearmament, but in tandem with it. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Dr. Burrows, the Counselor to the Executive Office of Stimson Center and has had a distinguished career in the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); Dr. Braml, the Secretary General of the German Group and the European Director of the Trilateral Commission, an influential global platform for dialogue between America, Europe, and Asia. Both are authors of the recently published book “World To Come: The Return Of Trump And The End Of The Old Order”.
Asia
China
(6 July 2025) China’s Zijin Mining recently said it planned to acquire a gold mine in Kazakhstan for $1.2bn. Appian sold its Mineração Vale Verde copper and gold mine in Brazil to China’s Baiyin Nonferrous Group for $420mn in April. The most active Chinese mining groups in overseas deals include CMOC, MMG and Zijin Mining. The Chinese government used to select one buyer per asset sale process and back that group. What’s evolved over the past three to four years is the government allowing Chinese groups to compete with one another. That implies they don’t fear losing to the west anymore. (Source: Financial Times - United Kingdom)
Israel
July 6, 2025 7:51 PM GMT+2 The Supreme Court ruled in June that the defence ministry could no longer grant blanket exemptions to Jewish seminary students from military conscription. Military service is compulsory for most Israeli Jews from the age of 18, lasting 24-32 months, with additional reserve duty in subsequent years. Members of Israel's 21% Arab population are mostly exempt. Israel's military said it would issue 54,000 call-up notices to ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students. The community represents 13% of the population today. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
North America
United States
7/7/2025 Israel and Hamas have resumed indirect talks on a cease-fire in Gaza after months of heavy Israeli military action. Iran, battered by the Israeli and U.S. strikes, is sending signals that it might be willing to resume nuclear negotiations, albeit on its own terms. The White House is reaching out to Syria’s new government, hoping for improved ties between Damascus and Israel. The durability and scope of the diplomacy remains in question. The normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is critical for Trump and Netanyahu. An even more ambitious goal of Trump’s is to ease decades of animosity between the U.S. and Iran. ’If the Gaza war drags on after a 60-day pause, if Iran hides its highly enriched uranium and threatens to enrich it further, or if Netanyahu’s political calculations stymie key decisions, the moment could pass with little to show for it,’ said Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and Pentagon official who is now at the Atlantic Council. A Gaza cease-fire is the most achievable outcome. Israeli officials and Hamas’s leaders have resumed indirect talks in Qatar on a possible deal. Yesterday, Netanyahu said he wouldn’t relinquish his goal of seeing Hamas removed from power and disarmed even as spoke about the promise of expanding Israel’s relations with Muslim-majority countries and his commitment to freeing Israeli hostages. Even a permanent end to the fighting in Gaza is unlikely to be sufficient to revive prospects for Israeli-Saudi diplomatic breakthrough. Saudi Arabia for years has said Israel must agree on a path toward Palestinian statehood before normalization with Israel would be possible. A large majority of Israelis now oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state, arguing it would be a reward for Hamas’s attacks and would threaten Israel’s security in the future. There has been no indication that Iranian officials are ready to give up enriching uranium and instead rely exclusively on foreign fuel supplies for the country’s civil nuclear program. as Witkoff has demanded. During his May trip to Saudi Arabia, Trump declared that the U.S. would avoid military intervention and nation-building efforts in the Mideast, and pursue his dream that Saudi Arabia would join the Abraham Accords, the 2020 set of agreements that normalized relations between Israel and Muslim-majority countries including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. In confining U.S. strikes to a one-and-done attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure while eschewing regime change, Trump has largely hewed to that goal. Though it was Israel that began the strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Trump’s decision to use B-2 bombers and submarine-launched cruise missiles against Iran’s most fortified sites has given him additional sway with Netanyahu. Netanyahu has emphasized that the war in Iran has created diplomatic opportunities for Israel. His statements indicate he thinks he might be able to pursue the war in Gaza and seek normalization with Saudi Arabia at the same time, an assessment at odds with most U.S. analysts. (Source: The Wall Street Journal - U.S.)
(July 7, 025) DOJ, FBI conclude Epstein had no 'client list,' committed suicide. When Musk had a falling out with Trump last month, Musk accused the president of being 'in the Epstein files.' Musk later deleted his accusation and other posts on X, saying he "went too far." (Source: Axios - U.S.)
July 6, 2025 'The United States has kept its own forces out of direct combat, choosing instead to treat Ukraine as a proxy in a broader strategy to degrade Russia’s conventional military capabilities'. 'The strategy aims to impose long-term costs on Moscow - roughly comparable to those experienced when the Soviet Union became bogged down in a decade-long conflict in Afghanistan and subsequently suffered regime collapse' - without risking US lives or instigating open conflict between NATO and Russia. From the opening hours of the conflict, the United States established clear boundaries - including no US troops on the ground, no airstrikes on Russian territory with US weapons, and no overt attempt to overthrow Russian President Putin. These principles acted as guardrails, demonstrating America’s wider fear of nuclear escalation. A key strategic tools in America’s arsenal has been economic pressure against Russia. Lastly, the United States has gone to great lengths to reinforce the NATO alliance. Some critics argue that 'while the US has allowed Ukraine to survive through three years of conflict, the support has not been generous enough to allow Ukraine to decisively win'. Others argue that the United States should not be involved at all, that any involvement is a waste of resources on a conflict that bears little bearing on US strategic interests. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
Jul 6th, 2025 After days of making noise about launching a new political party in response to the President Trump-backed Big, Beautiful bill, the Tesla boss announced the formation of what he’s calling the America Party to appeal to those hoping to curb government spending. 'When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy. Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.' In a signal he plans to win at any cost, Musk made an allusion to Epstein - by sharing a photo of Maxwell captioned: 'Why is she the only one going to prison? Where’s all the men that had sex with those underage girls?' Musk seems to believe he can takeover the American political system in no time flat. (Source: Mediaite - U.S.)
NATO
6 July 2025 'World War III will start with simultaneous Xi and Putin invasions taking the globe to the brink of Armageddon', warns NATO chief Rutte. Russia today hit back at ex-Netherlands premier Rutte, claiming he had 'gorged on too many of the magic mushrooms beloved by the Dutch', while warning he should look forward to a future in a hellish Siberian labour camp. (Source: Daily Mail - United Kingdom)
South America
Brazil
6 Jul 2025 Brazil hosts BRICS summit; Russia’s Putin, China’s Xi skip Rio trip. Leaders expected to decry US President Trump’s trade tariffs while presenting the bloc as a defender of multilateralism. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)
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