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Europe
Hungary
November 12, 2024 Becoming a transformative actor on the international stage and shaping the future of the EU ’has always been Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán’s political aim’. This approach emerged back in 2010, with his pursuit of an “Opening to the East” - a policy aimed at economic diversification, including through increased business and friendlier political relations with Russia, Turkey, and China. Orbán’s ambition is to thrust Hungary, at the periphery of transatlantic cooperation, to the heart of European - even global - decisionmaking. This foreign policy agenda is an essential part of his ’nationalist, illiberal, populist’ regime. In NATO, Orbán’s ambition is to boost business deals and make himself heard. Within the EU, he wants to shape the organization’s future, and get it to provide the maximum institutional and financial backup for Hungary’s economic progress while accepting his illiberal rule. For this, it is necessary to weaken the bloc’s ideological consensus and political competencies. Since gaining constitutional power in 2010, he adopted a confrontational posture within the EU to push back against criticism of his country’s ’systemic democratic backsliding and growing autocratization’. Until 2020, however, he played by the EU’s terms. The rebellion attitude, which openly undermines the bloc’s ability to act in unity, is new. It aims to both pressure the European Commission to release some of the frozen EU funds to the Hungarian government, ’and to demonstrate that no important decision can be made without Orbán’. From the very outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Orbán has systematically disrupted European decisionmaking. His positions on geopolitical issues and confrontative comments have become commonplace. In Orbán’s recent interview, given on the morning of the November 7 informal European Council meeting he declared that Hungary has successfully resisted judicial activism from Brussels because it is always prepared to revolt against interference in national actions. He called for rebellion against “the laws and court rulings that are currently in force.” This relates to the European Court of Justice, which has imposed a €200 million ($213 million) fine and further daily penalties of €1 million ($1.1 million) on Hungary for its failure to comply with ’EU asylum rules’. For too long, EU leaders did not respond resolutely enough. Recently, however, they applied conditionality to Hungary’s post-COVID-19 recovery funds and tried to politically isolate Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister, therefore, badly needed Trump to win the U.S. presidential election. Orbán’s people got in good standing with various Republican institutions that may shape the policymaking of the next U.S. administration. Buoyed by Trump’s victory, Orbán could afford to act like a cooperative host of his fellow Europeans last week. In contrast to his combative attitude in previous meetings, at the European Political Community summit and the informal European Council that followed, Orbán appeared moderate and restrained. This is, of course, ’all smokescreens’ to maintain his access to funds - ’a game of dupes that the other EU leaders have indulged Orbán in’, as well, out of weakness and a belief that it is better to maintain even a superficial unity. Behind closed doors, the harmony was less convincing. During a press conference Orbán called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, while President Zelensky stressed that no one could expect Russian President Putin to be generous and asserted that peace cannot be bought by weakness. Zelensky’s comments were directed at both Orbán and Trump. With the latter elected as the next U.S. president, continued support to Ukraine is uncertain. Trump may want peace in Europe to focus his attention on other geopolitical conflicts, ’at the price of Ukraine’s future and Europe’s security’. In this highly sensitive situation, Orbán could become a key interlocutor. He has positioned himself as a “peace builder” since the beginning of the war and now wants reap the rewards of his risky and controversial strategy. A chance to play this role, however symbolic, is one of the advantages Orbán can get from a second Trump administration. But the U.S.-Hungary relationship is not without challenges, even with Trump’s return to the White House. As a member of the single market, Hungary’s prime minister cannot play an individual game with the United States should a potential trade dispute emerge between the Washington and Brussels. Also, there is no guarantee that the upcoming Republican administration will be entirely friendly with Orbán. The words of U.S. Senate Republican leader McConnell should caution against any guarantee of deepening collaborations: “When Chinese state enterprise has said jump, Hungarian officials have asked, how high?" Orbán will continue the lobbying to remain in Trump’s horizon. Should Trump’s transactional instincts prevail in his management of global conflicts, Orbán may gain from it. Nonetheless, while Orbán may be strong, Hungary is deeply integrated in the EU, and its people like being Europeans. The country’s progress and success is far more dependent on the success of the EU than anything else. (Source: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - U.S.)
by Szelényi*, the founding director of the Democracy Institute Leadership Academy at the Central European University.
12.11.2024 "We must continue advancing the green transition while also maintaining our use of natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy," Victor Orbán said during his address at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku. Underlining that Hungary is among the few countries that has been able to enhance its economic performance while cutting emissions in recent years, Orbán said they cannot sacrifice industry or agriculture in this process. "The price of climate change should not be paid by our farmers. Farmers are the backbone of our economy and society," he added. The premier went on to say that the green transition and the fight against climate change should not be done against the business community, "but together with it," stressing the need for clear financial guarantees and significant investment. "Our climate policy should be guided by careful consideration and common sense, not by ideology alarmism or panic. Each should align with the opinion and interest of European citizens," he added. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
Asia
Syria
08:03-12 November 2024 The US struck nine targets at two locations in Syria yesterday to hit Iranian-aligned militias that had launched attacks on US personnel over the last 24 hours, US Central Command said. The US has about 900 personnel in Syria to assist partnered forces in conducting missions against isis militants. (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat - headquartered in London, United Kingdom)
Taiwan
12.11.2024 China today held live-fire drills along its southeastern coast and has designated several maritime and air zones as no-go areas in Taiwan Strait. The Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “designated several reserved areas and temporary air restricted areas in the southeastern coastal waters and conducted live-fire exercises,” Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said. It said the drills are being held off the coast of eastern Zhejiang province, and Fuzhou city of Fujian province. Taipei detected at least 20 PLA aircraft around Taiwan, of which 13 crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered the northern, central and southwestern air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Latest data suggests Beijing has increased flying its jets into the ADIZ by 300%. China neither accepts ADIZ nor media line while Taipei has insisted on its independence since 1949. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
North America
United States
12.11.24, 12:05 PM President-elect Trump yesterday named former Rep. Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency as he continues to build out his future administration with loyal supporters. Trump, in a statement, said Zeldin, who mounted a failed bid for governor of New York in 2022, would “ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions that will be enacted in a way to unleash the power of American businesses, while at the same time maintaining the highest environmental standards, including the cleanest air and water on the planet.” Zeldin, left Congress in 2023. His public appearances both in his own campaigns and on behalf of Trump often had him speaking about issues like the military, national security, antisemitism, U.S-Israel relations, immigration and crime. He was among the Republicans in Congress who voted against certifying the 2020 election results. While in Congress, he did not serve on committees with oversight of environmental policy. Trump often pointed to Zeldin's performance in the 2022 gubernatorial race where the Republican did far better than had been expected against Gov. Hochul. The announcement comes after Trump selected longtime adviser Miller, an immigration hard-liner, to be the deputy chief of policy in his new administration and named Rep. Stefanik as his nominee for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Miller is one of Trump's longest-serving aides, dating back to his first campaign for the White House. He was a senior adviser in Trump's first term and has been a central figure in many of his policy decisions, particularly on immigration, including Trump's move to separate thousands of immigrant families as a deterrence program in 2018. Miller has also helped craft many of Trump's hard-line speeches, and was often the public face of those policies during Trump's first term in office and during his campaigns. Since leaving the White House, Miller has served as the president of America First Legal, an organization of former Trump advisers fashioned as a conservative version of the American Civil Liberties Union, challenging the Biden administration, media companies, universities and others over issues such as freedom of speech and religion and national security. He was also a frequent presence during Trump's campaign this year, traveling aboard his plane and often speaking ahead of Trump during the pre-shows at his rallies. Miller drew large cheers at Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden during the race's final stretch, telling the crowd that, “your salvation is at hand,” after what he cast as "decades of abuse that has been heaped upon the good people of this nation - their jobs looted and stolen from them and shipped to Mexico, Asia and foreign countries. The lives of their loved ones ripped away from them by illegal aliens, criminal gangs and thugs who don't belong in this country.” “We stand here today at a crossroads,” he went on, casting the election as “a choice between betrayal and renewal, between self-destruction and salvation, between the failure of America or the triumph of America.” Because it is not a Cabinet position, the appointment does not need Senate confirmation. (Source: The Telegrapf - India)
12 Now. 2024 President-elect Trump's Republican Party will control both houses of Congress when he takes office in January. Republicans had already secured a majority in the US Senate and they would hold at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives with eight races yet to be called in last Tuesday's election. His power will also be backed by a Supreme Court. With a 63 conservative majority the new Congress convenes on January 3rd before Trump takes office on the 20th. Sources also said yesterday that Trump has selected US senator Rubio to be his secretary of state. Rubio is arguably the most hawkish option on the short list for the Post. In the past he has advocated for a muscular foreign policy to deal with America's geopolitical foes including China Iran and Cuba. Those views have often contradicted Trump who has accused past US presidents of leading America into costly and futile Wars and has pushed for a more restrained foreign policy. However Rubio has softened some of his stances over the last several years to align more closely with Trump. The 53-year-old would be the first Latino to serve as America's top Diplomat. By selecting Rubio, Trump may help consolidate gains with latino voters made in the presidential election last week by sending a clear message that they have a place at the highest levels of his administration. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
November 12, 2024 4:02 am CET Trump’s stated determination to “stop wars” poses a serious challenge for Bibi. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping Iran’s ayatollahs will live to regret their murder-for-hire plots against U.S. President-elect Trump. Netanyahu believes he now has a once-in-a-generation chance to secure a total victory against Israel’s foes and establish a safe security environment for decades to come. That means continuing the offensive in Gaza to finish Hamas for good, pursuing Hezbollah so that it’s uprooted from Lebanon, as well as getting at the ultimate enemy - Iran. His challenge now is to convince Trump of his grand strategy, and exactly how it can be accomplished without getting the U.S. ensnared in a 'forever war.' Netanyahu also knows Trump still harbors residual distrust toward him. And he and his advisers are well aware of the doubts some in the MAGA camp have about any open-ended adventurism that may risk entangling Washington - which, for example, demolishing Iran’s nuclear facilities would certainly do. These skeptics include Vice President-elect Vance, whose suspicion of foreign entanglements predates his MAGA conversion. It has its origins in his time as a Marine in Iraq, as he became highly disillusioned with America’s ill-fated wars in the region after his tour. Last month, when asked about the Middle East and whether the U.S. should go to war against Iran, Vance warned that U.S. and Israeli interests wouldn’t always coincide: “Our interest very much is in not going to war with Iran. It would be a huge distraction of resources. It would be massively expensive to our country,” he said, suggesting that Israel and Arab countries in the Gulf should provide the counterbalance to Iran. There will be other countervailing pressures on Trump from the Saudis and Emiratis - these countries have no interest in the region being set ablaze. Over the summer, Colby - who some in Washington believe is in the running for deputy defense secretary or possibly deputy national security adviser - said the U.S. should be having a smaller footprint in the Middle East. “It would be a mistake if we fritter away our resources on peripheral conflicts,” he added. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
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