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Europe
Germany
12/31/2023 Krisenmodus, the state of German foreign policy. "In 2024, Germany's foreign policy will work in crisis mode'. 'Berlin must find ways to deal with two wars, an increasingly aggressive China, and a world order in transition'. The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas - which is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the European Union, the US and other governments - is only the latest major crisis, albeit currently the most dramatic. The conflict could spread, with potentially devastating consequences. Germany is involved in discussions about how the Middle East should look after the end of the war. Like the EU and the US government, Germany remains committed to the idea of a two-state solution - a Palestinian state alongside the Israeli state. In an exclusive interview with DW in November, Foreign Minister Baerbock lamented the violence carried out by Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank against Palestinians. "The Israeli prime minister must condemn this settler violence, it must be prosecuted, and this is also in the interests of Israel's security,' she said. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has challenged German and European diplomats. Germany, along with other Western countries, has provided extensive military assistance, but still, almost two years later, Ukraine has made little progress in recapturing Russian-occupied territories. The willingness to provide military assistance to Ukraine is now eroding even in the United States, by far its most important ally. Kiesewetter, a Bundestag member with the center-right opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), believes that all talk of negotiating a solution is dangerous and that a military victory in Ukraine is possible. 'It is the West that has hampered the liberation campaign because too little has been supplied too late," he recently wrote. The strategy, he said, must be: 'Supply everything [in arms] as quickly as possible.' As the West grows weary of war, politicians are now under pressure to think about ending the war at the negotiating table. Political scientist Varwick from the University of Halle believes this is inevitable anyway. "After a cease-fire, I think come difficult diplomatic negotiations over territorial changes in Ukraine, and over Ukraine's neutrality - all of which should be on the table," Varwick told. Much has changed in relations between China and Germany since Angela Merkel was chancellor from 2005 to 2021. In contrast to Merkel's 'delicate handling of the Chinese government' in the interest of trade policy, the strategy paper issued this summer by the current governing center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) called China a "partner, competitor and systemic rival" for Germany and the EU. But recently, Berlin has increasingly emphasized the rivalry. The German government is concerned about China's saber-rattling toward Taiwan, which China regards as a secessionist province, and about China's close relationship with Russia despite its war on Ukraine. Yet China has been Germany's most important trading partner since 2016. This is why the German government's China strategy does not focus on disentangling the two economies, as this would cause too much damage in Germany, but rather on efforts to reduce its one-sided economic dependencies on China. The limits of a foreign policy based on values, as advocated by Baerbock, are particularly evident in the case of China. In April, the then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin responded to Baerbock's plea for greater respect of human rights: 'What China needs least of all is a schoolmaster from the West." 'In a world in which the liberal West is coming under pressure, enemies are easy to make if you constantly insist on values,' wrote journalist Freidel on November 30. "That doesn't mean that values are dispensable. It just means that they shouldn't be constantly bandied about." Freidel said Germany should 'rather formulate interests." Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations, takes a more positive view of the German government's foreign policy. "If we completely ignore values, as we did with Russia, then this will have catastrophic consequences, and we are seeing this in Ukraine,' he told. The war in Ukraine has taught the German government a lesson: In the global search for allies willing to support sanctions against Russia, numerous developing and emerging countries have turned their backs - intent on continuing trade with Moscow. Countries that are normally aligned with the West, such as India and Brazil, "are finding new leeway in this changing world order by exercising their freedom not to take sides," said Hoff. Germany, Europe's strongest and the world's fourth-largest economy, is expected to play a more active role on the global stage, not least by the US and the EU. This does not seem to be very popular with most Germans, according to a survey conducted by the nonprofit Körber Foundation in September. Germany should be more restrained when it comes to international crises, 54% of respondents said. Only 38% wanted to see greater involvement - the lowest figure since the surveys began in 2017, when it stood at 52%. A whopping 71% of respondents were against Germany taking a leading military role in Europe. Germans want one thing above all else: Respite from the turbulence of world politics. (dw)
European Council
December 31, 2023 Bulgaria, Romania, both EU members since 2007, get official green light for partial entry into Schengen area, which comprises 27 countries and grants free movement to more than 400 million EU citizens. EU member countries reached agreement yesterday on removing air and maritime internal border controls with Bulgaria and Romania as of March 31. “A further decision should be taken by the Council to establish a date for the lifting of checks at internal land borders,” the Council of the EU said. Austria had opposed the inclusion of Romania and Bulgaria in the Schengen zone due to concerns over illegal immigration. But in mid-December, Austrian Interior Minister Karner announced a softening of Vienna’s stance, offering passport-free travel by plane from those countries in exchange for tighter border security measures. The Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU hammered out the final agreement late yesterday, just before the government in Madrid passes the baton to Belgium. “A decision by the Council on this matter is expected to be taken within a reasonable time frame,” the European Commission said in a statement. (Source: politico)
Russia
31-Dec-2023 What will happen in Ukraine in 2024? Israel's war with Hamas has captured the attention of the world's media over the past two months, but in Ukraine a near two-year long conflict is continuing with no end in sight. Russia labeled it a special operation aimed at ridding Nazism from Ukraine and reclaiming land it lost following the disbandment of the Soviet Union. It was expected that Ukraine would be quickly overwhelmed by the firepower of Russia's military, but with help from Western countries, Ukraine has showed resolve. Ukraine has received huge financial backing from the West, particularly from the United States. After weathering Russia's early attack, support from Western allies in the form of military and financial aid saw Ukraine fight back. The U.S. has pledged €43.9 billion ($55.9 billion) to Ukraine between February 2022 and October 2023. Ukraine had also received €5.6 billion ($7.1 billion) from the EU over the same time period. But that level of support is putting pressure on the purse strings of Western countries. There are fears if aid dries up, Ukraine will fold to the military might of Russia. Now, with a third year of fighting fast approaching, Russia and Ukraine's conflict has ground to a standstill, but looks set to continue well into 2024 and beyond. As it stands, Russia currently occupies roughly 15 percent of Ukraine's territory, having formally annexed four regions: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk in September 2022. Ukraine's counter-offensive has stalled and Russia has struggled to make any further advancements. For Ukraine's soldiers on the frontline, there is little sign of an end to the fighting, with the conflict set to continue for many months and even years to come. "Russia wins by not losing," Shea, a former NATO official and now professor of strategy and security at the University of Exeter, said. He believes Russia is committed to a lengthy battle that could go on for years. "Putin is clearly in for the long haul. He made that clear during his press conference. He said that the initial Russian war aims, which is to demilitarize the Nazi for Ukraine have not changed. So that suggests that Putin is not prepared at this stage, at least, to go for a more limited victory in terms of simply hanging onto the 17 percent of Ukraine that Russia has occupied and annexed. He wants the whole lot, including the downfall of the Zelenskyy regime." "The problem, of course, is that we now have this potential Ukraine fatigue from both America and the EU simultaneously," says Shea. "Hungary has blocked €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) in EU aid for Ukraine. America could say, 'look the EU is doing less' and (if they reduce aid), the EU could say 'America isn't in the fight anymore, why should we care about this more than them?'" Earlier this week, the White House approved another tranche of US military aid to Ukraine worth some $250m. Zelenskyy has ruled out talks with Moscow until it withdraws from territories it has occupied since February 2022. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov restated Russia's complaint that Ukraine was unwilling to hold peace talks to end the 22-month-old conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow calls a 'special military operation'. "His representatives think only in categories of war and resort to totally aggressive rhetoric. There is no consideration of holding peace talks... Draw your own conclusions," Lavrov told Tass. Finances could play a key role in Russia's military ambitions in Ukraine in 2024, too, Shea explained. "Russia, believe it or not, is now spending as a proportion of its GDP more on defense than the Soviet Union did. Soviet Union 14 percent, Russia now 20 percent." All of this defense spending over the long run is going to cause a lot of inflation, reduce Russian living standards, he added. (Source: cgtn *)
* China Global Television Network
Sunday, 31 Dec 2023 Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has intensified over the past week amid speculations that the war has reached a stalemate. Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out a “terrorist attack” yesterday on civilians in the city of Belgorod, including using controversial cluster munitions in strikes that killed at least 22 people and wounded dozens more. In an emergency meeting at the UN Security Council, demanded by Russia, envoy Nebenzya claimed Kyiv targeted a sports centre, an ice rink and a university. “[It was a] deliberate, indiscriminate attack against a civilian target,” Nebenzya said yesterday. Moscow said the attack would “not go unpunished”. At least 40 people were killed on Friday in one of Russia’s biggest attacks on Ukraine since its invasion nearly two years ago. Nebenzya defended the attacks saying Moscow had targeted only military infrastructure and that Ukraine’s air defence systems were responsible for civilian casualties. While support for Ukraine remains robust among Western countries, further military assistance has met growing pushback by conservative political forces in the US and Europe. The United States, Ukraine’s biggest single-country donor, has sent more than $40bn in aid since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. But right-wing congressional Republicans have expressed increasing scepticism towards approving more funds for Ukraine. Congress could continue to hold up the money. The impasse over US aid to Kyiv is mirrored in the European Union, where Hungary is blocking a 50 billion euro ($55bn) aid package. The bloc is due to revisit the issue in January. Difficulties in securing the funds in Washington and Brussels have raised concerns in Kyiv that Western backers are experiencing “fatigue” with the drawn-out battle, as fighting on the front line becomes bogged down. Zelenskyy has noted that Kyiv’s “foreign policy will be active' with many international activities in January. In a new wave of drone and missile attacks in days, Russia says it has targeted Ukrainian military sites in the capital Kyiv and Kharkiv, in retaliation for a deadly attack a day earlier on the city of Belgorod. Today the Russian defence ministry said it had struck “decision-making centres and military installations” in the northeastern city of Kharkhiv, after Kyiv said that residential buildings, a hotel and cafes had been hit. Russia launched ‘most massive attack’ since start of Ukraine war. In the first wave of overnight attacks, at least six missiles hit Kharkiv, Ukraine’s National Police said today. Most drones were aimed at Ukraine’s first line of defence as well as at civilian, military and infrastructure in the Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions, the Ukrainian Air Force said, adding that it destroyed 21 out of 49 attack drones. Closer to midnight, as part of a wider bombardment of Ukraine that also targeted Kyiv, several waves of Russian drones hit residential buildings in Kharkiv’s centre, spouting fires, Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv said. In his New Year’s Eve address today, President Putin said Russia would “never back down' praising his country’s military personnel. “We have repeatedly proved that we are able to solve the most difficult tasks and will never retreat, because there is no force that can separate us,” Putin said. “To all those who are on duty, on the front line of the fight for truth and justice," Putin said, “you are our heroes. Our hearts are with you. We are proud of you, we admire your courage.” (Source: aljazeera)
Photo: A view shows the Kharkiv Palace Hotel heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike.
2023. dec. 31. Russia pounded Kharkiv in the hours leading into New Year's Eve, hitting residential buildings, hotels and medical facilities, Ukrainian officials said. Russia said the attacks were retaliation for Ukraine’s 'indiscriminate" attack on Belgorod. Video. (Source: reuters): http://tinyurl.com/5btckbtk
Note: 323 733 views between 31 December 2023 - 7 January 2024
Ukraine
Sunday, December 31, 2023 On Friday, Russia launched its biggest air assault since February 2022. Ukrainian officials said Russia killed at least 41 civilians, wounded at least 160, and left an unknown number buried in the rubble across Ukraine in a barrage that included 158 missile and drone attacks. The United Nations Security Council met Friday at the request of Ukraine and three dozen other U.N. member states. Security Council members condemned Russia's barrage. The Ukrainian news outlet RBC-Ukraine quoted unnamed sources as saying Ukrainian forces hit military targets in Belgorod in retaliation to the Friday's massive Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Russia's Defense Ministry said at least 21 people, including three children, were killed and at least 110 injured in yesterday's Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod. Russia requested a meeting yesterday of the U.N. Security Council on what it called Ukraine's indiscriminate attacks on Belgorod and alleged Ukraine had used cluster bombs. Yesterday, Russia said it downed 32 Ukrainian drones. In Moscow, officials said air defenses shot down drones over Moscow, Bryansk, Oryol and Kursk regions. The Defense Ministry reported a number of casualties, including a child. Russian missile and drone strikes continued yesterday. Ukraine reported shooting down Iranian-made Shahed drones in the Kherson, Khmelnytskyi and Mykolaiv regions. Ukraine was also fighting back a Russian drone attack yesterday in Kyiv. Missiles hit in Kharkiv and in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv regions, killing three people. Two Russian missiles hit central Kharkiv yesterday, injuring at least 21 people, Ukrainian officials said, in the latest in a recent series of back-and-forth air assaults. Russia's attacks on Kharkiv came after Ukrainian airstrikes earlier yesterday hit the Russian city of Belgorod, which sits just over the border with Ukraine. The Kharkiv Palace hotel was damaged by a Russian missile attack in Kharkiv. Looking ahead to 2024, President Zelenskyy said in his daily address yesterday that Ukraine is "preparing to produce more weapons next year.' The British Defense Ministry said yesterday in its daily intelligence update on Ukraine that the daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine, dead and wounded, has risen by almost 300% per day, compared with last year. The increase in the number of casualties was reported to the British ministry by Ukraine. On the last day of the year, Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 21 of 49 Russian drones. (Source: voanews *)
* Voice of America
Asia
China
31/12/2023 China’s 'reunification' with Taiwan is inevitable, President Xi said in his New Year’s address today, striking a stronger tone than he did last year with less than two weeks to go before the Chinese-claimed island elects a new leader. “The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability,' Xi said, though the official English translation of his remarks published by the Xinhua news agency used a more simple phrase: “China will surely be reunified'. China has never renounced the use of force to bring it under Chinese control, though Xi made no mention of military threats in his speech carried on state television. “Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,' he added. The official English translation wrote “all Chinese' rather than “compatriots'. Last year, Xi said only that people on either side of the strait are 'members of one and the same family' and that he hoped people on both sides will work together to “jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation'. The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao’s communists who founded the People’s Republic of China. The Republic of China remains Taiwan’s formal name. The Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary elections are happening at a time of fraught relations between Beijing and Taipei. China has been ramping up military pressure to assert its sovereignty claims over democratically governed Taiwan. Current Vice President Lai, the presidential candidate for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Party (DPP) leading in opinion polls by varying margins says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, as does Lai’s main opponent in the election, Hou, from Taiwan’s largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT traditionally favours close ties with China but strongly denies being pro-Beijing. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Lai had “exposed his true face as a stubborn ‘worker for Taiwan independence’ and destroyer of peace across the Taiwan Strait' saying he is a dangerous separatist. 'His words were full of confrontational thinking,' spokesperson Chen said. Hou has also denounced Lai as an independence supporter. Since 2016 - when President Tsai took office - the DPP-led government has promoted separatism and is the 'criminal mastermind' in obstructing exchanges across the strait and 'damaging the interests of Taiwan’s people', Chen said. Lai said yesterday that the Republic of China and People’s Republic of China “are not subordinate to each other”, wording he and Tsai have used previously which has also riled Beijing. Tsai and Lai have repeatedly offered talks with China, but have been rebuffed. (Source: france24)
Gaza
31 December, 2023 Following Hamas' surprise October incursion, Israel launched a full-scale attack in Gaza, displacing nearly all its 2.3 million residents and killing at least 21,672 Palestinians, according to health authorities in Gaza, with more than 56,000 injured and thousands more feared dead under the rubble. The conflict has sparked concerns it could spread across the region, potentially involving Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen that have exchanged fire with Israel and its U.S. ally, or targeted merchant shipping. Israel cited progress in destroying Hamas infrastructure, including a tunnel complex in the basement of one of the houses of the Hamas leader for Gaza, Sinwar, in Gaza City. Troops also raided the Hamas military intelligence headquarters and an Islamic Jihad command centre in Khan Younis, and destroyed targets including a weapons foundry. Hamas and Islamic Jihad issued statements saying their fighters destroyed and damaged several Israeli tanks and troop carriers in attacks across Gaza yesterday. They also said they fired mortars against Israeli forces in Khan Younis and Al-Bureij as well as in northern Gaza. Israel says 172 of its military personnel have been killed in the Gaza fighting. Hamas media reported yesterday that Maali, a senior member of the group's armed wing, was killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza. It said Maali, originally from the West Bank, was freed during a 2011 prisoner swap and expelled to Gaza. The reports did not specify when he was killed. Residents and medics said yesterday's fighting was focused in al-Bureij, Nuseirat, Maghazi and Khan Younis in central and southern Gaza. Israeli military forces pressed ahead with an offensive that the prime minister reiterated will last "for many more months.' "The war is at its height," Netanyahu told yesterday. He added the Philadelphi Corridor buffer zone that runs along Gaza's border with Egypt must be in Israeli hands. "It must be shut," Netanyahu said. "It is clear that any other arrangement would not ensure the demilitarisation that we seek." Such a move by Israel would be a de facto reversal of its 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, placing the enclave under exclusive Israeli control after years being run by Hamas. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas but its targeting and killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza is increasingly being described as a genocide. (Source: newarab *)
* English version of a London-based pan-Arab news outlet owned by a Qatari media company.
Syria
Sunday - 31 December 2023 Israel is now seeking to weaken Iranian supply lines. Military developments are now escalating in Syria. Iran is stepping up its efforts to transfer weaponry. It is sending arms through Damascus Airport, which indicates an urgent and ongoing need for supplying its proxies, as using other routes could take longer. Damascus Airport is going in and out of service. The Israelis continue to target Damascus Airport to disrupt the supply of arms, and they will continue to escalate their targeting of influential Iranian leaders, constantly seeking bigger and more important targets, as seen in the attack on Mousavi in Damascus, as well as targeting Hezbollah's arms depots. All of that tells us Israel’s escalation cannot be separated from the war in Gaza. Israel’s escalating attacks on Syrian territory are not an extension of its consistent attacks, rather, they are part of the Israelis’ preparations for a new war on Lebanon, which could either be launched during its war on Gaza or immediately afterward. The name of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps official whom Israel recently assassinated in Syria, Mousavi, is the obvious headline of the story. The Iranians say he was tasked with managing IRGC supply lines. Israel's targeting of Mousavi, who has played prominent roles in Syria, is essentially aimed at disrupting Iranian supply lines sending equipment from Tehran to Lebanon, and thus to Hezbollah, and before it, other militias in Damascus and its surroundings. It is preparing to target Hezbollah, as well as other Iranian militias, to weaken them before the war in Lebanon breaks out. The pretexts are already available to the Israelis, who demand that Hezbollah militia men stay away from the Israeli border, as stipulated by UN Resolution 1701, and claim that they will ensure this happens either through negotiations or war. 'Israel’s motives are clear and easy to understand. The longer wars last, whether they are in Gaza or if one breaks out on the Lebanese borders, the better Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s chances of remaining in power. Netanyahu was dead politically, and he was awaiting imprisonment, the final nail in the coffin. However, the repercussions of the October 7th operation carried out by Hamas and the factions allied to it have extended his political life. He is now trying to emerge from this crisis as a national hero, after having been a corrupt politician'. Thus, we see tense and contradictory statements coming out of Iran as Israel escalates. Hezbollah, especially Nasrallah, remains silent. He has not said a word because he knows what is coming and that if a war erupts, it will be different from those that preceded it. If this war is waged, it would be a war of survival for both Netanyahu and Nasrallah. Netanyahu wants to escape his inevitable fate of imprisonment, and Nasrallah is trying to preserve what remains of Iran's prestige and its influence in Syria. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat - Arabic international newspaper headquartered in London.
Red Sea
Sunday, December 31, 2023 Attacks on shipping vessels claimed by the Houthi rebels have increased since Israel declared war on militant group Hamas on Oct. 7. Yesterday, the U.S. shot down two anti-ship ballistic missiles that were fired by Houthi rebels toward he Maersk Hangzhao container ship on the Red Sea, CENTCOM said today. The Maersk Hangzhao said they were struck by a missile earlier yesterday, according to CENTCOM. Early today morning U.S. helicopters from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier and the Gravely responded to the distress call issued by the container ship Maersk Hangzhao - the second distress call the ship issued in less than 24 hours due to "being under attack by four Iranian-backed Houthi small boats." The boats, which originated from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, fired at the Maersk Hangzhao and attempted to board the vessel after getting within 20 meters of the container ship. A contract-embarked security team on the ship returned fire, the central command said. Following the another attack on the merchant ship as tensions continue to rise in the region, the U.S. Navy helicopters were starting to give out warnings to the attackers, when the Houthi-controlled small boat crews opened fire on the helicopters with crew-served weapons and small arms. "The U.S. Navy helicopters returned fire in self-defense," CENTCOM said. The United States sunk three of the four small boats and killed the crews, CENTCOM said. The fourth boat fled the area. No U.S. forces were injured and there was no damage to U.S. equipment. "This is the 23rd illegal attack by the Houthis on international shipping since Nov. 19," CENTCOM said.
(Source: thestate *)
* The State - American daily newspaper published in Columbia, South Carolina.
North America
United States
December 31, 2023 Republicans have a great chance to retake the Senate in 2024. There are 34 Senate races in 2024. Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents occupy 23 of the seats, eight of which are rated competitive or vulnerable by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes House and Senate races. Republicans are only defending 11 seats, all of them in states won by Trump in 2020. Of those, only the Texas seat held by Sen. Cruz is rated competitive. “The Senate majority is firmly in play, and Republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the Senate,” said Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “But we’ve seen Republicans throw away opportunities before.' In Arizona, former local TV news anchor Lake, a Republican is still contesting the results of her 2022 loss for governor. In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Brown is defending the seat he has held since 2007. Ohio passed an Amendment for Abortion Rights on November 7, 2023. The amendment will take effect in 30 days, per Ohio law. Upon its enactment, it would prohibit limits on abortion before fetal viability. Any prohibitions on abortion after fetal viability – generally accepted as between 22-24 weeks gestation but would be determined by an individual’s doctor – would not apply should the pregnant person’s health or life be at risk. Gov. DeWine – who signed the six-week abortion ban into law – has long opposed abortion access. Secretary of State LaRose, who is also running for U.S. Senate, was among the most vocal opponents of the abortion amendment, even before it was placed on the ballot. In West Virginia, a state that Trump won by almost 39 percentage points in 2020, when last month centrist Democratic Sen. Manchin decided not to run for re-election, Democrats’ hopes of keeping their 51-49 Senate majority took a hit. Trump has endorsed Republican Gov. Justice in West Virginia’s Republican primary. Justice is dominating polling against Republican Rep. Mooney. The winner of the GOP primary is expected to cruise to victory in the November general election. With West Virginia seen as off the table, the battle for the Senate is centered on Montana, where Democratic Sen. Tester is running for a fourth term, and Ohio. Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points and Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2020. "Those races might not even matter. If Republicans successfully defend all their current seats and win Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, as expected, and if the party’s nominee also wins the White House, Republicans will control the Senate in 2024, thanks to the new vice president’s tiebreaking vote, without picking up any other seats". (Source: wsj)
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