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Europe
European Union
(31 October 2023) / 18/08/2023 Common security and defence policy: Missions and operations. Annual Report 2022. Contents: Foreword. Part 1 - 2022 in focus: Europe’s security under threat ... EU Security and Defence engagement around the world. PART 2 - Achievements of CSDP Missions and Operations ... The Eastern neighbourhood ... The Western Balkans ... The Mediterranean ... The Middle East ... The Sahel ... The Horn of Africa ... Central and Southern Africa. (Source: eeas *): https://tinyurl.com/29kw22yu
* European External Action Service
Kosovo
Tue, Oct 31 2023 The Western Balkans, a group of six countries that European Union officials have repeatedly said belong to the European family, comprises Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. Not yet members of the 27-nation bloc, the region of roughly 18 million in Southern and Eastern Europe is known as an arena of geostrategic rivalry, with Brussels, Moscow and Washington among those jockeying for influence. NATO has had a peacekeeping mission in Kosovo since 1999 following a bloody conflict between ethnic Albanians opposed to ethnic Serbs and the government of Yugoslavia in 1998. As conflict rages between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine, the focus of Western powers has been diverted from a different geopolitical issue: Serbia-Kosovo tensions - a powder keg, a security issue for both the Balkans and Europe. A deadly shootout in late September between a heavily armed group of ethnic Serbs and Kosovo special police forces in the northern Kosovan village of Banjska appeared to mark another pivotal juncture. U.S. and European officials expressed deep concern over the violence and 'unprecedented' buildup of military forces there, as the White House described it. The military alliance reacted to the September incident by deploying additional peacekeeping troops to the region, while Serbia bolstered its military presence along its border with Kosovo. Serbian President Vučić has previously said that Serbian forces had no intention of going to war with Kosovo, noting that this would be counterproductive to the country’s ambitions of joining the EU. The Serbia-Kosovo discord finds itself languishing in the shadow of more immediate and globally resonant challenges. "When a new conflict erupts on the global stage, it inherently strains a nation’s capacity to effectively manage preexisting conflicts,” Hartwell, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told. In the Balkan region even minor incidents can swiftly spiral into broader conflicts - what happens in the Balkans, doesn’t stay in the Balkans, he said. Essentially, the diplomatic and military bandwidth only goes so far, and states are compelled to make calculated choices about where to direct their efforts. “The U.S., EU and U.K. do not have the diplomatic and military bandwidth to respond to several conflicts of strategic interest. Choices will have to be made in terms of where we can commit our resources, and that will ultimately have negative consequences for some regions,” he added. “However, when we neglect this responsibility, or mismanage it as is currently the case, we inadvertently create an opening for other players to fill the vacuum,” CEPA’s Hartwell said. (Source: cnbc)
Russia
10/31/23 Few Russian or Western analysts believe a mysterious Russian Telegram channel called General SVR and Solovey (who some say are one and the same person). Hundreds of thousands of Russians have read General SVR’s and Solovey’s claims. Many more are discussing them. They do provide remarkably detailed accounts of Putin’s supposed death that enhance their verisimilitude, but imaginative crackpots and secret police provocateurs would be expected to do the same. Seeds of doubt have been planted. Solovey has a biting sense of humor, speaks well, argues logically and generally comes across as the kind of professor every student would want. Other than his claims regarding Putin’s death and the supposed exile of Prigozhin, the deceased head of the mercenary Wagner Group, to an island off the coast of Venezuela, his analyses of Russia’s internal politics are invariably smart and incisive. As a would-be opposition leader, Solovey may be determined to sow confusion in the ranks of Russian elites and among ordinary Russians, leading them to wonder whether the great leader is still alive and to question whether the man claiming to be Putin really is Putin - thereby undermining his legitimacy. With Russia’s presidential elections scheduled for March 2024, popular doubt about Putin’s health and existence can only complicate the Kremlin’s plans. The other possibility is that Solovey and General SVR are not bona fide independent democratic oppositionists, as they claim to be. They may in fact be agents of the security services or spokesmen for powerful elites able to provide Solovey - who lives in Moscow and, despite his savage criticism of Putin, has managed to avoid arrest - with protection. Solovey himself describes his politics as liberal conservative, which may also be the appropriate modifiers to describe his protectors. Chances are that Solovey’s possible protectors are conservative reformers who would want to dismantle the worst aspects of Putinism and try to end the war. Elite efforts to delegitimize the current regime bespeak a crack within what appears to outside observers as a monolithic regime. Putin’s spokesman, Peskov, felt compelled to deny rumors of Putin’s death and the existence of Putin doubles as fake news. 'But, since Peskov is always assumed never to tell the truth, was the denial a confirmation, or was it really a denial?' The intended effect of the death claim would be the same - doubt, confusion and delegitimation. (Source: thehill)
Ukraine
Oct 31, 2023 Russia does not often publicize its own losses, and offers up only infrequent updates on what it claims to be the casualty count. 'Russia has lost more than 300,000 soldiers in its grueling 20-month-long war in Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's military said today. This updated count includes 870 Russian casualties in the past 24 hours'. In September 2022, the Kremlin put the death toll for its forces at 5,937; on the same day, Kyiv's count of 'liquidated' Russian soldiers was 55,110. Both Moscow and Kyiv could benefit from inflating the other's reported losses. It is not possible to independently verify battlefield reports or casualty counts from either side. Kyiv's figure of around 300,000 Russian losses corresponds with Western intelligence estimates and open-source information, according to Mertens, an analyst with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. The head of Ukraine's armed forces, General Zaluzhnyi, said in late August 2022 that almost 9,000 Ukrainian fighters had been killed at that point. In November 2022, the U.S.' top soldier, General Milley, said both Russia and Ukraine had likely each lost 100,000 soldiers in the fighting. Almost 500,000 Ukrainian and Russian troops had been killed or injured in 18 months of war, The New York Times reported in mid-August, citing U.S. officials. "Each side tries to paint a picture of it winning," Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, U.K. told. There are also questions about how the numbers are collated and by whom they were recorded, she said. Russia now has around 40,000 troops deployed in the vicinity of Avdiivka, Colonel Shtupun, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces covering Avdiivka, said on Sunday, October 29. (Source: newsweek)
Asia
China
Oct 31, 2023 China has not officially condemned Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel and has criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza as “collective punishment” and going “beyond self-defense.” Chinese and other social media users expressed shock this week after finding that Israel was not explicitly demarcated as a country on Baidu and Alibaba’s online digital maps. Amap and Baidu Maps are the two most popular platforms for GPS navigation in China. Amap is considered the market leader. Both are known for having spotty service outside of China; Baidu Maps only began expanding to other regions through a partnership in 2017. It’s possible that people may be noticing long-standing features of the two platforms. Both mapping services did not automatically display labels for either Israel or Palestine. Baidu spokesperson Peng told that the company may not always display the names of smaller countries due to space constraints. Baidu Maps did navigate to the country, though it still wasn’t labeled. Users can find corresponding countries or areas on Baidu Maps by simply using the map’s search function, Peng said. Amap doesn’t label other countries either, and only names cities on its map. In the Middle East, Amap displayed several capital cities near Israel and Palestine, such as Damascus, Beirut, and Amman. But it did not demarcate Israel’s Tel Aviv or the disputed city of Jerusalem, which were both displayed on Baidu Maps. China’s foreign ministry dismissed speculation that it had changed its stance on Israel’s borders during a press conference today, saying that Beijing recognizes the country on official maps. “I believe you are aware that China and Israel have a normal diplomatic relationship,” Wenbin, a ministry spokesperson, said. The relevant country is clearly marked on the standard maps issued by the Chinese competent authorities, he said. China tightly regulates how maps are depicted in the country, and it has become more aggressive in staking claims to areas it considers its own territory. Last month, Beijing released a new official map that showed land claimed by Malaysia, Vietnam, India, and the Philippines as belonging to China. Baidu Maps similarly shows the independent island of Taiwan as part of China. Other GPS services, particularly Google Maps, have been scrutinized for changing territorial borders depending on what country users are located in. In India, for example, Google displays the disputed region of Kashmir as under Indian control, while users elsewhere see a dotted line acknowledging that Pakistan also has a claim to the territory. (Source: semafor)
Gaza
October 31, 2023 The Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem blamed Israel today for the overnight bombing of its cultural centre in Gaza City and condemned the "direct and unjustified attack". "This attack represents a stark embodiment of Israel's unwarranted determination to destroy the civil infrastructure and social service centres, as well as shelters for civilians trapped in the besieged enclave," the church said. The Patriarchate said 19 places of worship, including churches and mosques, have been hit by Israeli strikes since October 7. Several people were killed on October 20 while they were sheltering in the compound of Saint Porphyrius Church, the oldest church still in use in Gaza, when it was hit by Israeli bombardment. (Source: barrons)
Oct. 31, 2023 The Israeli military reported "fierce battles" with Hamas deep inside the Gaza Strip as its ground operation pushed deeper into the north of the enclave and rescued a soldier who had been taken captive. The IDF said a massive strike on the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip killed a senior Hamas commander who was one of the architects of the Oct. 7 terror attack. Dozens of others were killed and hundreds wounded, according to Gaza's Indonesian Hospital. Israel's national security adviser said 'the end of the war is not close' because Hamas must first cease to exist. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected growing international calls for a cease-fire after a bombing campaign that plunged Gaza into darkness and cut it off from most of the world over the weekend. (Source: nbcnews)
31/10/2023 More than half the territory's 2.3 million Palestinians have fled their homes, with hundreds of thousands sheltering in packed UN-run schools-turned-shelters or in hospitals alongside thousands of wounded patients. Several hundred thousand Palestinians remain in the northern part of Gaza, where Israeli troops and tanks reportedly have advanced on several sides of Gaza City, the sprawling urban center. Ground operations in Gaza were focused on the north, including Gaza City, described as "Hamas's centre of gravity" by Conricus, an Israeli military spokesman. Ground troops battled Hamas militants and attacked underground compounds. 'But we continue to strike in other parts of Gaza. "We are going after their commanders, we are attacking their infrastructure, and whenever there is an important target associated with Hamas, we hit it," he said. The military said it had hit some 300 militant targets over the past day. A flurry of Israeli airstrikes today in the Jabaliya refugee camp on Gaza City's outskirts levelled apartment buildings, leaving craters where they once stood. At least six airstrikes destroyed a number of apartment blocks in a residential area. The Hamas-run Interior Ministry reported a large number of casualties but did not immediately provide details. Dozens of rescue workers and bystanders dug through the wreckage, searching for survivors. As the families of hostages in Gaza campaign for the freedom of their loved ones, Hamas has claimed it will release a number of them in the coming days. 'We have informed intermediaries that we will release a certain number of foreigners in the next few days, in line with our position which we had previously announced that we don't want or need to keep them or continue to detain them in Gaza", Obeida, a Hamas spokesman said today. To date, Hamas has released five hostages but more than 200 people are still being held captive. Hamas has said it would let the others go in return for thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, which has dismissed the offer. The United Nations agency in Gaza warned that “an immediate humanitarian cease-fire has become a matter of life and death for millions.' “Let's be clear: the handful of convoys authorised via Rafah are nothing compared to the needs of more than 2 million people trapped in Gaza,” said Commissioner-General Lazzarini. "The current siege imposed on Gaza is collective punishment,' he added. “An entire population is dehumanised.' Around 30 trucks carrying water, food and medicine entered Gaza through the Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border on Sunday, October 29, the largest amount of aid since 21 October. Before October 7th, around 500 trucks entered the Gaza Strip every day, which even then was considered insufficient by many observers. More than 1 million people have been displaced in Gaza. Lazzarini called Hamas' attack on southern Israel earlier this month “horrible” and “shocking”. Doctors in Gaza are being forced to operate on the ground and perform cesarean sections on women and amputations on children without anaesthesia due to a lack of medicine, Doctors of the World (MDM) said yesterday. While denouncing Hamas' "unspeakable atrocities", vice-president of MDM Corty said, "We must also condemn the fact that Israel is bombing thirsty and starving people who have no prospect of leaving'. Since October 9, Israel has subjected Gaza to a 'complete siege', depriving its 2.4 million inhabitants of water, food and electricity while limiting international aid to a trickle. The NGO also warned there would be an 'exponential' increase in infant deaths amid Israel's unrelenting strikes. “We are going from an open-air prison to an open-air mass grave', he said. Gaza's Ministry of Health says 8,306 people have been killed, including 3,457 children, since the start of the war. A White House spokesperson said yesterday that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was "not the right answer at this time', claiming the Palestinian Islamist group 'would be the only one to benefit from it.' The US however is in favour of "temporary and localised humanitarian pauses to allow aid to reach certain specific populations and perhaps even to help with the evacuation of people who want to leave' Gaza, said Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council. (Source: euronews)
31 October 2023 In a televised address, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Hagari confirmed that forces carried out an attack on the Jabalia refugee camp and killed Hamas commander Biari. He said several other militants were killed in the strike, adding the targeting of the commander caused underground tunnels to collapse and 'led to the destruction of other buildings'. More than 100 people are believed to have been killed in the attack, and hundreds more injured. (Source: mirror)
31 October 2023 Air strikes yesterday night outside the Indonesian Hospital caused a power cut and doctors said they feared for the lives of 250 injured Palestinians being treated there as fuel runs low. The director of Gaza's Indonesian Hospital told that more than 50 Palestinians were killed and 150 wounded in Israeli air strikes on a densely populated area of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. Elder, a spokesperson for the UN children's agency in Geneva, warned of the risk of infant deaths due to dehydration. Children in Gaza were getting sick from drinking salty water, he said. Fighting in an urban setting, Israel said its forces fought Hamas gunmen inside the militants' vast tunnel network beneath Gaza as it expands a four-day-old ground offensive. "Over the last day, combined IDF (Israel Defense Forces) struck approximately 300 targets, including anti-tank missile and rocket launch posts below shafts, as well as military compounds inside underground tunnels belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization," an Israeli military statement said. Militants responded with anti-tank missiles and machine gun fire, a number of militants were killed, it said. Hamas said in a statement its fighters were engaging in fierce battles with Israeli ground forces, who were taking losses. Israeli forces also bombed the enclave overnight in air, sea and ground attacks, hitting northwestern areas. Yesterday, Israeli forces targeted Gaza's main north-south road and attacked Gaza City, its northern hub, from two directions. Ground fighting spreads to south Gaza. The al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas's armed wing, said militants also clashed early today with Israeli forces invading Gaza's south, hitting four Israeli vehicles with missiles and in Beit Hanoun, in the northeast, they 'liquidated' an Israeli unit which was ambushed as it entered a building. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat (London)
Israel
October 31, 2023 An Israeli government ministry has drafted a wartime proposal to transfer the Gaza Strip’s 2.3 million people to Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, drawing condemnation from the Palestinians and worsening tensions with Cairo. In its report, the Intelligence Ministry - a junior ministry that conducts research but does not set policy - offered three alternatives 'to effect a significant change in the civilian reality in the Gaza Strip in light of the Hamas crimes that led to the Sword of Iron war.” The document proposes moving Gaza’s civilian population to tent cities in northern Sinai, then building permanent cities and an undefined humanitarian corridor. A security zone would be established inside Israel to block the displaced Palestinians from entering. The report did not say what would become of Gaza once its population is cleared out. The document dismisses the two other options: reinstating the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority as the sovereign in Gaza, or supporting a local regime. Among other reasons, it rejects them as unable to deter attacks on Israel. The reinstatement of the Palestinian Authority, which was ejected from Gaza after a weeklong 2007 war that put Hamas in power, would be 'an unprecedented victory of the Palestinian national movement, a victory that will claim the lives of thousands of Israeli civilians and soldiers, and does not safeguard Israel’s security,” the document says. Egypt would not necessarily be the Palestinian refugees’ last stop - the document speaks about Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supporting the plan either financially, or by taking in uprooted residents of Gaza as refugees and in the long term as citizens. Canada’s “lenient” immigration practices also make it a potential resettlement target, the document adds. “In our assessment, fighting after the population is evacuated would lead to fewer civilian casualties compared to what could be expected if the population were to remain.” The document is dated Oct. 13. It was first published by Sicha Mekomit, a local news site. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office played down the report compiled by the Intelligence Ministry as a hypothetical exercise - a 'concept paper.' But its conclusions deepened long-standing Egyptian fears that Israel wants to make Gaza into Egypt’s problem, that Israel wants to force a permanent expulsion of Palestinians into its territory, as happened during the war surrounding Israel’s independence and revived for Palestinians memories of their greatest trauma - the uprooting of hundreds of thousands of people who fled or were forced from their homes during the fighting surrounding Israel’s creation in 1948. The vast majority of Gaza’s population are the descendants of Palestinian refugees uprooted from what is now Israel. Egypt ruled Gaza between 1948 and 1967, when Israel captured the territory, along with the West Bank and east Jerusalem. 'Egypt has made clear throughout this latest war that it does not want to take in a wave of Palestinian refugees'. Egypt’s president, El-Sissi, has said a mass influx of refugees from Gaza would eliminate the Palestinian nationalist cause. It would also risk bringing militants into Sinai, where they might launch attacks on Israel, he said. That would endanger the countries’ 1979 peace treaty. 'He proposed that Israel instead house Palestinians in its Negev Desert, which neighbors the Gaza Strip, until it ends its military operations'. “We are against transfer to any place, in any form, and we consider it a red line that we will not allow to be crossed,” Rudeineh, spokesman for Palestinian President Abbas, said of the report. “What happened in 1948 will not be allowed to happen again.' A mass displacement, Rudeineh said, would be 'tantamount to declaring a new war.' Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the paper threatened to damage relations with a key partner. “I see it either as ignorance or someone who wants to negatively affect Israel-Egypt relations, which are very important at this stage.” Egypt is a valuable partner that cooperates behind the scenes with Israel, he said. If it is seen as overtly assisting an Israeli plan like this, especially involving the Palestinians, it could be “devastating to its stability.” “The issue of the ‘day after’ has not been discussed in any official forum in Israel, which is focused at this time on destroying the governing and military capabilities of Hamas,” the prime minister’s office said. (Source: apnews)
October 2023 AD Air raid sirens sounded in the area of Israel's far southern resort city of Eilat on the Red Sea today and the Israeli military said it downed an approaching 'aerial target'. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militias said they had launched a 'large number' of ballistic missiles and drones towards Israel, their third operation targeting Israel, with more to come. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat (London)
Lebanon
31/10/2023 'Combat aircraft recently attacked infrastructure of the terrorist organisation Hezbollah on the territory of Lebanon,' the Israeli army wrote on X today. 'Among the infrastructure attacked, weapons, positions and sites used by the organisation were destroyed,' it added. Tensions are soaring on the Israel-Lebanon border, fuelling fears the current fighting could spill over into the region. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has engaged fire with Israeli forces repetitively since Hamas stormed into Israel and murdered hundreds of civilians on October 7th. The Shiite group announced yesterday that one of its fighters had been killed, bringing the total to 47. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati told yesterday his country was doing everything possible to avoid being drawn into the conflict. (Source: euronews)
Taiwan
October 31, 2023 Concerns are mounting in Asia that the wars in Ukraine and Israel are depleting U.S. stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, leaving it in a weaker position to defend Taiwan against a potential Chinese offensive. Experts point out that while there is some overlap, the weapons needed to fight a land war in Ukraine, or fend off short-range rockets from Gaza, are different from what would be needed in a maritime conflict in the Taiwan Strait. However, the Iran-backed, Lebanon-based militia Hezbollah could be a game changer. Hezbollah entry into war would mean Taiwan trade-off, U.S. analysts say. Israeli demand for long-range missiles and Patriots would eat into Indo-Pacific needs. A missile assault from north of Israel would create a direct trade-off with the weapons needed in the event of a Taiwan contingency, analysts told. Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is limited in scale and 'probably doesn't create too much of a problem for the United States to resource.' For comparison, while 6,000 to 8,000 rounds of ammunition could be used each day in Ukraine, the Israeli Defense Forces would use around 5,000 a week. "It would present the U.S. a challenge, but it will be doable, given that the U.S. is ramping up production already,' she said. If the war expands to include Hezbollah, however, "it becomes a lot tougher and the trade-offs become much starker," she said. 'Hezbollah likely has over 150,000 missiles and they could probably fire these at a rate that Israel estimates as 6,000 to 8,000 per day.' Hezbollah is believed to have advanced precision-guided missiles and short-range ballistic missiles, provided by Iran. Those higher-end missiles would present a more daunting threat to Israel's Iron Dome air defense system than that of Hamas' more rudimentary rockets. That would likely push Israel to request the U.S. to provide air defense systems like the Patriot, which is already in short supply and would directly take away from U.S. preparations for the Indo-Pacific region, Kavanagh said. Another area is long-range missiles, she said. 'If Israel's conflict with Hezbollah intensifies, or if Iran became more directly involved, Israel might see the need to conduct some longer-range strikes. Not just short-range strikes into southern Lebanon, but potentially strikes to hit Hezbollah targets in Syria or against Iranian assets.' In January, the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies published the results of its latest war games, simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In the 24 times the CSIS ran the war game, long-range missiles proved to be crucial in U.S. operations to defend Taiwan. 'Long-range missiles were critical because Chinese air defenses were initially so formidable that no aircraft could get close enough to drop short-range munitions. Even stealth aircraft were at risk,' the report said. But sophisticated, long-distance cruise missiles were only available in the early stages of the war. 'As these inventories are depleted, aircraft must use shorter-range munitions and accept more risk,' the report said. Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said, "We have a primacy hangover and we still think this is the 90s, when the United States was at the peak of its relative power, and we can do all of this. But ultimately, if we're serious about the Indo-Pacific, that means that we have to prioritize." The U.S. will have to be honest about the trade-offs, Grieco said. "There's always trade-offs in strategy. If the United States is serious about the Indo-Pacific and about deterring China, then it's going to have to reconcile its goals with its available means and that sometimes requires hard choices," she said. Kavanagh said it would not present an opportunity for China to act on Taiwan, but it may give Beijing 'additional flexibility' to be more aggressive in the region. 'That could be a little bit of what you're seeing with confrontations with the Philippines over Second Thomas Shoal,' she said. 'They feel that they have a little bit more leeway, or at least they might be interested in sort of testing the boundaries of how far they can push'. (Source: nikkei)
North America
United States
Oct 31, 2023 'Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced that the United States will pursue a modern variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb, designated the B61-13, pending Congressional authorization and appropriation. The Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) would produce the B61-13,' the Department of Defence release said. 'This initiative follows several months of review and consideration. The fielding of the B61-13 is not in response to any specific current event; it reflects an ongoing assessment of a changing security environment," the US Department of Defence added. The B61-13 will yield similarly to the B61-7, which has a maximum output of 360 kilotons, according to Fox News. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II, was around a 15 kiloton bomb. The B61-13 would be almost 14 times bigger than the 25-kiloton bomb that was dropped on Nagasaki. 'While it provides us with additional flexibility, production of the B61-13 will not increase the overall number of weapons in our nuclear stockpile,' said Assistant Secretary of Defence for Space Policy Plumb. The announcement coincides with escalating international tensions following the US' high-explosive experiment earlier this month at a nuclear test site in Nevada. (Source: economictimes /India/)
31 Oct (2023) Speaking to a congressional committee in Washington DC, FBI director Wray has warned that Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel could motivate extremist groups across the world to step up violent campaigns. Wray told lawmakers that "the actions of Hamas and its allies will serve as an inspiration the likes of which we haven’t seen since isis launched its so-called caliphate years ago". He also warned that antisemitic attacks on Jewish Americans had increased since the conflict erupted. "This is a threat that is in some way reaching historic levels," Wray said. "The Jewish community is targeted by terrorists across the spectrum. Our statistics would indicate for a group that only represents 2.4% of the public, the Jewish community accounts for 60% of religious based hate crimes." (Source: bbc)
31 October 2023 Protesters caused chaos in Congress today. Demonstrators called the Secretary of State a "murderer' who has "blood on his hands' during mayhem at the start of the hearing on Middle East and Ukraine aid in front of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Protesters drenched in fake blood caused chaos by interrupting Blinken's testimony on Israel, to demand a ceasefire in Gaza and call for the U.S. to stop 'supporting genocide'. Blinken's comments were cut off multiple times by members of the audience waving signs calling for an end to the 'siege' of Gaza. He and Defense Secretary Austin were forced to sit in silence as protesters chanted 'ceasefire now' and held up their hands covered in red paint. The disarray led to the suspension of the hearing, before officers could restore order. A dozen protesters were arrested for disrupting the hearing. The latest stunt comes less than 24 hours after Republicans announced a plan to send $14.3billion to Israel. Blinken restarted his testimony when order restored inside the hearing room. He was able to resume his testimony and insisted the U.S. is focused on 'protecting civilian lives.' (Source: dailymail)
A photo: 'Blinken was all smiles yesterday night when his children received candy from President Biden during the White House Halloween party'.
United Nations
Oct 31, 2023 Israel's ambassador to the UN, Erdan, and his team, wore a yellow star pinned on their coats while addressing the UN Security Council. He accused Hamas, the Palestinian terror group ruling Gaza, of atrocities and compared them with the Nazis of Germany during a speech at the UN Security Council. 'Today, after innocent Jewish babies were burned alive, this council is still silent. Some member states have learned nothing in the past 80 years. Some of you have forgotten why this body was established'. "We will wear this star until you condemn the atrocities of Hamas and demand the immediate release of our hostages," Erdan was heard saying in a video. (Source: indiatoday)
31 October 2023 Briefings to the Security Council by Lazzarini, the head of the UN children’s agency UNICEF and a senior UN humanitarian official painted a dire picture of the humanitarian situation in Gaza 23 days after Hamas’ surprise Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, and its ongoing retaliatory military action aimed at “obliterating” the militant group, which controls Gaza. The head of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees told a UN emergency meeting yesterday “an immediate humanitarian cease-fire has become a matter of life and death for millions,” accusing Israel of “collective punishment” of Palestinians and the forced displacement of civilians. The commissioner-general of the UN agency known as UNRWA said there is no safe place anywhere in Gaza, warning that basic services are crumbling, medicine, food, water and fuel are running out, and the streets “have started overflowing with sewage, which will cause a massive health hazard very soon.” Lazzarini said “the handful of convoys” allowed into Gaza through the Rafah crossing from Egypt in recent days “is nothing compared to the needs of over 2 million people trapped in Gaza.” Lazzarini warned that a further breakdown of civil order following the looting of the agency’s warehouses by Palestinians searching for food and other aid “will make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for the largest UN agency in Gaza to continue operating.” According to the latest figures from Gaza’s Ministry of Health, more than 8,300 people have been killed - 66% of them women and children - and tens of thousands injured, the UN humanitarian office said. UNICEF Executive Director Russell: that toll includes over 3,400 children killed and more than 6,300 injured. UNICEF oversees water and sanitation issues for the UN, and Russell warned that “the lack of clean water and safe sanitation is on the verge of becoming a catastrophe.” Many speakers at the council meeting denounced Hamas’ Oct. 7 surprise attacks on Israel that killed over 1,400 people, and urged the release of some 230 hostages taken to Gaza by the militants. But virtually every speaker also stressed that Israel is obligated under international humanitarian law to protect civilians and their essentials for life including hospitals, schools and other infrastructure - and Israel was criticized for cutting off food, water, fuel and medicine to Gaza and cutting communications for several days. US Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield urged the divided Security Council - which has rejected four resolutions that would have responded to the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks and the ongoing war - to come together, saying “the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is growing more dire by the day.” Stressing that all innocent civilians must be protected, she said the council must call “for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, address the immense humanitarian needs of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, affirm Israel’s right to defend itself from terrorism, and remind all actors that international humanitarian law must be respected.” She reiterated President Biden’s calls for humanitarian pauses to get hostages out and allow aid in, and for safe passage for civilians. “That means Hamas must not use Palestinians as human shields - an act of unthinkable cruelty and a violation of the law of war,” the US ambassador said, “and that means Israel must take all possible precautions to avoid harm to civilians.” In a sign of increasing US concern at the escalating Palestinian death toll, Thomas-Greenfield told the council Biden reiterated to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday “that while Israel has the right and responsibility to defend its citizens from terrorism, it must do so in a manner consistent with international humanitarian law.” “The fact that Hamas operates within and under the cover of civilians areas creates an added burden for Israel, but it does not lessen its responsibility to distinguish between terrorists and innocent civilians,” she stressed. Following the rejection of the four resolutions in the 15-member Security Council - one vetoed by the US, one vetoed by Russia and China, and two for failing to get the minimum nine “yes” votes - Arab nations went to the UN General Assembly last Friday, October 27, where there are no vetoes. The 193-member world body adopted a resolution calling for humanitarian truces leading to a cessation of hostilities by a vote of 120-14 with 45 abstentions. Now, the 10 elected members in the 15-member Security Council are trying again to negotiate a resolution that won’t be rejected. While council resolutions are legally binding, assembly resolutions are not though they are an important barometer of world opinion. Israel’s UN Ambassador Erdan was sharply critical of the council’s failure to condemn Hamas’ attacks and asked members: 'Why are the humanitarian needs of Gazans, the sole issue, the sole issue you are focused on?” Recalling his grandfather who survived Nazi death camps but whose his wife and seven children perished in the Auschwitz gas chamber, Erdan told the council he will wear a yellow star - just as Hitler made his grandfather and other Jews wear during World War II — “until you condemn the atrocities of Hamas and demand the immediate release of our hostages.” Mansour, the Palestinian UN ambassador, also urged the Security Council to follow the General Assembly, end its paralysis, and demand “an end to this bloodshed, which constitutes an affront to humanity, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, and a clear and imminent danger for regional and international peace and security.” “Save those who still can be saved and bury in a dignified manner those who have perished,” Mansour said. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat (London)
October 31, 2023 The United Nations special envoy for Syria, Pedersen, told the Security Council yesterday, that the Israel-Hamas war is spilling into Syria, fueled by growing instability, violence and a lack of progress toward a political solution to its 12-year conflict. On top of violence from the Syrian conflict, the Syrian people now face 'a terrifying prospect of a potential wider escalation' following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and the ongoing retaliatory military action. 'Spillover into Syria is not just a risk; it has already begun,' the U.N. envoy for Syria said. Pedersen pointed to airstrikes attributed to Israel hitting Syria's airports in Aleppo and Damascus several times, and retaliation by the United States against what it said were multiple attacks on its forces 'by groups that it claims are backed by Iran, including on Syrian territory.' Syria was seeing a surge in violence even before Oct. 7. Pedersen said the number of Syrians killed, injured and displaced is at its highest since 2020, citing a significant intensification of attacks in government-controlled areas, including an unclaimed attack on a graduation ceremony at a military academy in Homs, which the government attributes to terrorist organizations. He also reported government rocket attacks throughout October on Hayat Tahrir al Sham . the insurgent group that rules much of rebel-held northwest Syria - as well as a major escalation of Turkish strikes in the northeast following an attack on Turkish government facilities in Ankara. The Turkish strikes have killed dozens, damaged health facilities, schools and camps, and displaced more than 120,000 civilians, he said. U.S. Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield accused 'terrorist groups,' some backed by Syria and Iran, of threating to expand the Gaza conflict 'by using Syrian territory to plot and launch attacks against Israel.' She also accused Syria of allowing Iran and terrorist groups to use its international airports for military purposes. 'We call on the regime to curb the activities of Iran-backed militias in Syria, stop the flow of foreign arms and fighters through its territory, and cease escalatory actions in the Golan Heights,' she said. 'The United States has warned all actors not to take advantage of the situation in Gaza to widen or deepen the conflict,' she said. 'And we’ve made clear that we will respond to attacks on our own personnel and facilities in Syria or against U.S. interests, and where appropriate exercise our right to self-defense forcefully, proportionately and in a manner that minimizes civilian harm.' Ambassador Nebenzia of Russia, Syria’s closest ally, accused Israeli forces of striking sites in Syria, including civilian airports, and called U.S. attacks in the country "illegitimate actions" and “a gross violation of Syria’s sovereignty.” He also claimed U.S. economic interests and involvement “in contraband with Syrian grain and oil” have prevailed over political interests. Nebenzia said there is a sharp increase in tensions around the Israel-Hamas conflict and attacks like the ones by the U.S. might provoke spillover to the entire region. “This must not be deemed acceptable," he said. Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Iravani refuted all U.S. claims, saying his country is in Syria at Damascus' request to fight terrorism. He accused Washington of attempting 'to shift the blame from the culprit to the victim.' Iravani told the council the United States’ 'unwavering support' for Israel 'has rendered it part of the problem.” He said the U.S. and some Western countries were attempting to give Israel an unjust right to self-defense while ignoring the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination, and equating the Palestinian resistance with terrorism. 'Iran’s primary objective is to avoid any escalation in the region,” the ambassador stressed, which is why it has endorsed international calls for an immediate cease-fire and humanitarian aid for people in Gaza. However, Iravani said Iran will respond to any threat, attack or aggression endangering its security. (Source: abcnews)
Globalization
Oct 31, 2023 “Hundreds of thousands are signing up for Telegram from Israel and the Palestinian Territories,” Durov, Telegram’s Russian founder, posted on his public channel on October 8, adding that the company was bringing support for Hebrew and Arabic to the app. In the absence of official information, Hamas attacks brought a surge of users - sustained government pressure on the country’s press had driven people in search of alternative news sources. Previous escalations of violence tended to coincide with an uptick of activity on Telegram. Hamas accounts have been banned from most social media platforms for years. But, when it launched its attack on Israel on October 7, Hamas had a huge presence on Telegram. “Everyone affected should have reliable access to news and private communication in these dire times,” Durov said. 'Telegram was already familiar to many Israelis, who, among other things, often procure cannabis through the app'. Hamas posted gruesome images and videos that were designed to go viral. Telegram’s lax moderation ensured they were seen around the world. Hamas take control of the narrative in those first few hours - during the course of the day, Telegram, which has 800 million users worldwide, became the main source of videos and information spreading to other social media platforms, including X, Instagram, and TikTok, where content was being reposted with little to no verification. The platform’s potential to rapidly disseminate easily downloadable and sharable content made it a crucial weapon - in real-time. One of the most-viewed videos featured professionally filmed and edited footage of armed paragliders landing on sandy terrain and storming buildings. It isn’t clear from when or where the video was filmed. Other footage, seemingly recorded on body cameras and phones, shows fighters crossing the Gaza-Israel Barrier and exchanging fire. And cameras pan over slain Israeli soldiers in the aftermath of an attack. This video, and others like it, have received more than 700,000 views apiece on Telegram. Hamas’ own channels still played the commanding role. Whereas before it was somewhat dated, now it was specifically designed: Livestreams were accompanied by a deluge of short, branded clips that could easily be shared. They definitely had highly produced content ready to go, and then their ability to post and upload in real time as the attack was unfolding also shows there was a degree of sophisticated media strategy. SITE Intelligence Group, a consultancy monitors the Qassam Brigades channel claims that Hamas’ Telegram strategy totally changed on October 7. Katz, SITE’s executive director and founder believes the group’s strategy was partly inspired by the islamic state’s playbook. Telegram used to be the app of choice for islamic state. (In an interview in 2015, Durov replied that is would simply find another app if kicked off his. 'I still think we’re doing the right thing - protecting our users’ privacy,' he said. Shortly afterward, the islamic state carried out a series of attacks in Paris, killing 130 people, earning Telegram widespread criticism. Telegram subsequently banned 78 is channels, created a bot to track and eliminate new is channels, and cooperated with Europol). Islamic state has shown how to reach a wider audience and how to process content in such a way that it evokes both fear and admiration. But Hamas is an enemy of the islamic state. Hamas, unlike islamic state, maintains international contacts, and many governments don’t regard it as a terrorist group, particularly in Asia and Latin America. In one open source intelligence war-watching group on Telegram, videos of IDF forces being humbled - basic quad drones dropping grenades on Israel’s state-of-the-art Mark IV Merkava tanks, followed by footage of soldiers fleeing their vehicles and being captured by Hamas fighters were seen. Five hours after the attacks started, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that his country was at war. One of the biggest fronts Israel failed on, and one of the biggest things that helped create panic in Israeli society, was mis- and disinformation during the first 72 hours. With little to no official information, many desperate Israelis were not just watching violent videos released by Hamas; they were also getting caught up in a mess of conspiracy theories. While videos and images of victims were soon going viral on major social networks, the most extreme content can all be traced back to Telegram: Hamas’ real-time broadcasting of its attack on Israel as psychological warfare - militants jumping the border fence, old women being taken away, people being murdered in their beds. The weaponization of Telegram played a key role in this psychological attack. In some groups, the attacks were already being blamed on the IDF for having betrayed Netanyahu. Other conspiracy theory groups on Telegram and X claimed it was all a false-flag operation by the Israeli prime minister. By the evening of October 7, the IDF, which had been concentrating on X, began posting more regularly on Telegram. By then it was already observing a very clear pipeline of images and videos of facts distorted and events exaggerated or misinterpreted from Telegram to X. The Telegram’s lack of robust content moderation, alongside its sprawling honeycomb of public channels and groups, enabled content to rapidly reach millions of people. Hamas’ Telegram channels grew rapidly in the first five days of the conflict. Qassam Brigades, the channel dedicated to the organization’s military wing, tripled in size from 205,000 to nearly 620,000 subscribers, alongside a tenfold increase in the number of views per post, according to analysis by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab). In the year prior to the attacks, the channel had only grown by 20,000 followers. Apple and Google which host Telegram in their app stores have now begun asking the company to ban Hamas’ main channels. Before the takedown requests from Google and Apple, the Qassam Brigades channel was nearing 800,000 subscribers. It is currently down to roughly 670,000. Telegram has declined to block channels disseminating extreme content. In a post on his public channel on October 13, Durov alluded to the difficulty of policing speech in a conflict, and cited a Hamas warning before a strike on the Israeli city of Ashkelon as a reason not to act: 'Would shutting down their channel help save lives - or would it endanger more lives?' Other channels became popular, too. Gaza Now, which the DFRLab describes as 'Hamas aligned,' doubled its 350,000 subscribers in the first 24 hours of the crisis, while the average number of views in the first five days increased tenfold. The channel currently has more than 1.9 million subscribers and consistently reposts Hamas content. On Android, people now see a message telling them that two of the main Hamas-run channels, including Qassam Brigades, cannot be displayed on 'Telegram apps downloaded from the Google Play Store.” Telegram instructs Android users who want “fewer restrictions" to download the app directly from its website. Telegram, which is headquartered in Dubai, has once again found itself at the center of a complex geopolitical and humanitarian crisis. Katz alleges that Hamas’ social media activity has been effective in cultivating rare support across disparate radical Islamist groups around the world, whether Sunni or Shia. Without Telegram, this would have been impossible, argues Katz. "It allows for quick uploads and sharing, to utilize automated bots, to stay anonymous. No other platform comes close.' On October 13, on Durov’s public channel he claimed that Telegram’s moderators and unspecified 'AI tools' were removing “millions of obviously harmful content.” Campo, who directed Telegram’s growth, business, and partnerships from 2015 to 2021, argues that Durov has chosen to “maximize' amplification of content on his platform. Public channels, for example, can have an unlimited number of subscribers while private groups can reach 200,000 people, far more than WhatsApp’s 1,024-member limit. Being able to upload any type of file of up to 2 GB enables Telegram to become a bridge for content between social networks and other platforms. It reveals the outsize power of one of the world's most tight-lipped technology companies - the power of the platform to quickly spread unfiltered content ahead of traditional media, as well as the true extent of Hamas’ weaponization of the app. Many believe Instagram has been censoring and shadow-banning pro-Palestinian accounts, some of which had resorted to burying the #IStandWithIsrael hashtag in posts to get seen. Meta, which owns Instagram, said it had fixed a number of bugs that may have been causing such issues. Neff, who helped cofound Telegram and worked at VK, the Russian social network Durov used to run, believes that Durov sees Telegram as an almost neutral, public utility: He accepts there will always be both good users and bad users - but that Durov believes good people will prevail against bad people. 'They use Telegram to communicate safely, and reliably. And in situations like the [current conflict in the] Middle East, they ideally warn each other of danger which might hopefully save some lives,” Neff says. As of February 2023, there were only 60 employees. 'The almost nonexistent trust and safety team in no way can keep up with the daily global chaos they are now faced with at the scale they’ve become,' Neff adds. Unlike other platforms, Telegram does not appear to have a codified process for dealing with crises like this, instead tending to make changes under intense legal or media pressure. In the European Union, regulators have warned social media platforms against content that contravenes its Digital Services Act. A spokesman for the European Commission told that they are in contact with Telegram, without offering details. After a recent meeting of the European Union Internet Forum and pressure from Germany, Hamas’ Telegram channels are now blocked in a number of EU member states. The Hamas group is trialing a rudimentary app for keeping people updated on the latest news and announcements from the Qassam Brigades - another example of its expanded technical capabilities. Hamas seems to be preparing for their communications to be disrupted in the event that Telegram does remove the group. Whatever happens, as Telegram continues to develop into the de facto platform for witnessing war in real-time, unfiltered and unmoderated, it is changing the way the world experiences violent conflict. Hamas’ ability to widely share images and videos of its attacks have the potential to inspire further violence, Katz argues. This is going to escalate and be a much bigger problem. "Because this will lead to more violence around the world.' And for that, Katz claims, Telegram will be in no small part responsible. “The feeling now is that [Telegram is] not closing anything,' Nashif, a Palestinian digital rights activist tells from his home in the northern Israeli city of Haifa. Nashif has seen Israeli channels mocking murdered Palestinians.'“People abusing the [dead] bodies, making jokes …' Nashif and 7amleh, the civil rights organization he leads, have been documenting cases of Palestinians being threatened by Israeli channels and groups on Telegram since the conflict began. “That means that Telegram is also not going to shut Israeli channels inciting [violence],' he said. “I think that the owner and leadership of the company are very aware that this is bringing to them millions of people and subscribers,' Nashif alleges. 'I think it's part of the business model.' Based on prior examples, Durov appears to have an aversion to interfering or taking sides in political and international crises, based more on pragmatism than principle. 'First of all, he’s worried about the size of the audience", Rozenberg, who worked with Durov from the early days of VK in 2007, before becoming director of special areas, which involved anti-spam work at Telegram from 2016 to 2017, claims. "And if he started blocking channels or content with pro-Palestine and/or pro-Israel positions, he would be blamed by huge parts of Telegram's audience in a lot of countries, that he supported another side of the conflict.” 'So, it’s just business.' Source: wired)
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