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Europe
European Parliament
2023. szept. 1. EU citizens will elect the next class of EU lawmakers in June next year. The future dynamics of parliamentary seat allocation, power shifts and leaders’ reactions - the results show prominent gains in the right-wing spectrum. All estimates always agree on the same thing: the next Commission president will only be able to count on the same majority as now – EPP, S&D, Renew. There is no other possible, neither from the left nor from the right. Despite efforts from some European parties to promote the spitzenkandidat system, whereby the lead candidate of the party that gathers a majority in the Parliament becomes European Commission President, EU countries will most likely end up making their own choice. Centrist majority prevails against right-wing surge. The EPP drops from 177 to 160 seats. Italy’s governing coalition partner Forza Italia is set to lose four seats from its current 9, as the party’s voters migrate to Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. Ireland’s “Fine Gael” drops from 5 to 2 seats. The German Christian democrats (“CDU”) lose three seats, staying at 20, and its sister party CSU would also lose 1 seat, with the German EPP delegation as a whole reducing in total from 29 to 25 seats. Spain’s Partido Popular would rise from 13 to 21 MEPs after winning the national snap elections in July. Poland’s Koalicja Obywatelska, led by Tusk, rises from 11 to 16 seats (14 of which are allocated to EPP), and the appearance of the new party “Nieuw Social Contract” in the Netherlands ahead of national elections on 22 November scores record-breaking seven seats in its first entrance to the European Parliament by snatching votes from existing Dutch centre-right party “CDA”, going from five to one seat. EPP questions polls. S&D and Left groups freeze but undergo seat reshuffle. The Socialists and Democrats group (S&D) and the Left group stay where they are with a slight increase of three and one seats totalling 146 and 38 MEPs, respectively. Spain’s governing PSOE earns one extra seat and remains S&D’s biggest national delegation with 21 MEPs. Italy’s Partito Democratico scores four new seats, becoming the second largest national delegation with 19. Germany’s SPD scores two extra seats but falls short by one MEP with 18 seats. The biggest winners are France’s Parti Socialiste and Romania’s Partidul Social Democrat, with both scoring five extra three from three to eight and from eight to 13, respectively. Poland’s “Lewica”, Estonia’s “Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond”, and Malta’s “Partit Laburista” all lose one seat. In the Netherlands, the Labour party’s (“Partij van de Arbeid”) MEPs are halved, with only three seats left. The Left group, “La France Insoumise” would win two seats, from 5 to 7. Ireland’s Sinn Féin would scale from one to six seats. Ireland’s “Independents” would lose 2. Both Spain’s “Anticapitalistas” and Germany’s “Die Linke” would lose 1. Spain’s left-wing coalition “Sumar”, which is both Green and Left, would score three seats for the Left group, one less from 2019, and 3 seats for the Greens. Renew Europe seeks to remind voters of the importance of the group’s kingmaker role, while drops from 101 to 89 seats. Spain’s liberal “Ciudadanos” party’s death translates into 8 MEPs less for Renew. Macron’s “Renaissance” would also lose one seat. Poland’s new coalition Trzecia Droga would enter the Parliament with five MEPs, 3 for Renew. Czechia’s ANO would contribute to Renew’s balance with four extra seats, from five to nine, if the party does not get expelled from ALDE and Renew, as ANO has been under heavy scrutiny for not committing to liberal values. The national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group predicted to grow by 16 from its 66 seats in the 2019 elections. Italy’s governing party, Fratelli d’Italia led by Georgia Meloni, is the biggest winner with 19 extra seats. Polish governing party PiS could lose five seats, from 24 to 19. Spain’s VOX is projected to increase its seats from four to nine. In Romania, the far-right AUR party is now the third force and is projected to enter the European Parliament for the first time with eight seats. 'The far-right' and eurosceptic Identity and Democracy (ID) groups score 27 extra seats, projected to secure 73 seats, 11 more than in 2019. Salvini’s Lega party is losing 16 seats out of the 25 they won back in 2019. ID could shift from Italian to French leadership, as current President Zanni’s party Lega would give way to France’s Rassemblement National with five-seat increase from 18 to 23, as the strongest force in the group. ID’s other wins include three more MEPs for Austria’s “FPÖ” and three seats for Portugal’s far-right party “Chega!” (Enough!), which could enter Parliament for the first time. The Non-Inscrits, a group comprising many right-wing or far-right parties, is slated to ascend from 47 to 56 seats. The biggest loser is the Greens/EFA group, which is projected to attain 52 seats, signifying a notable decrease from their current 72. In Greens’ traditional strongholds, Germany and Austria they lost five and one seat respectively. Italy’s Green Party loses its three seats, Belgium’s Ecolo loses one, France’s Europe Écologie Les Verts (EELV), Finland’s Vihreä liitto, Sweden’s “Miljöpartiet de gröna” and Ireland’s Green Party all lose 2 seats each. In Croatia the party “Možemo!” enters the parliament for the first time with two seats. In Lithuania Greens/EFA score double the seats to reach four. In Spain the new coalition “Sumar” win two extra seats, to a total of three. The co-chairs believe that extreme weather events over the past year - record-breaking heatwaves and wildfires - will motivate people to vote for them. 77% of EU citizens believe that climate change is a ‘very serious problem’ according to June 2023 Eurobarometer. Nine seats go to unaffiliated parties, including leftist coalition Sumar (Spain) with two seats and Course of Freedom (Greece), NIKI (Greece), Spartans (Greece), “DieBasis” (Germany), “Yes, Bulgaria”, and Stabilitātei! (Latvia) with one seat each. One seat is unnamed due to the nature of the mass probability model (methodology). /Source: euractiv/
Russia
9:57 ET, Sep 1 2023 Borisov, head of the Russian Space Agency, issued the chilling announcement earlier today. 'The Sarmat strategic complex has been put on combat duty,' he told a crowd of students at an event. The Armageddon weapon is 116 feet in length and can be loaded with 15 light nuclear warheads at once. The weapon was designed to carry out nuclear strikes in countries thousands of miles away in the US and Europe. TV propagandist Kiselyov formerly claimed: 'It is capable of destroying an area the size of Texas or England'. It can travel at hypersonic speeds. The nuke can reach speeds of nearly 16,000 mph - it has the potential to obliterate the United Kingdom some 1,600 miles away in just six minutes. With an operational range of up to 11,180 miles, the deadly missile is reported to have no equivalent in the West in terms of the terror it could unleash. The 208-tonne missile was meant to go on duty in late 2022, but was mysteriously delayed. The first and only known full-scale test of Satan-2 was announced as soon as it took place on 20 April 2022, with Putin in touch by video-link. It passed the test launch. The following month, close Putin ally Rogozin said almost 50 Satan-2 missiles would soon be on combat duty. In February, tests were held for the Satan 2 missile while US President Biden was visiting Ukraine. The launch of the missile – capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads – appeared to have failed, officials said. (Source: the-sun)
September 1, 2023 As the Russian occupation of Ukraine rolls on, testimonies increasingly demonstrate a propensity to engage in practices which may be qualified as enforced disappearance. If proven, such practices will amount to serious and gross violations of the human rights of those disappeared and their families. Witnesses repeatedly recall that those in occupied Ukrainian territories can be arrested at any time, commonly due to hearsay evidence regarding their allegiance or views on the Russian occupation. Individuals are often held without families being officially informed of their whereabouts. Although in some cases families will have rough information on their whereabouts from external sources, in others, they will have no such indication, with Russian forces either refusing to engage altogether or claiming to have no knowledge of the detained person. It is doubtful whether the fact of accepting a package can be equated to a confirmation of whereabouts. Parcels from family members are sometimes accepted by guards, but it is unclear whether the acceptance of the parcels is done as an acknowledgment that the individual is in fact detained in the facility. Whilst detention can range from a few days to a few months, testimonies also demonstrate a disturbing uptick in detained individuals later being found deceased, either having had their body concealed or having been brazenly left in the open, often mutilated. The Russian Federation is neither a party nor a signatory to the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance (‘CPED’). Thus, any group examining allegations of disappearances carried out by the Russian Federation, such as the Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances, would have to rely upon the customary framework outlawing the practice. The definition posited in the 1992 Declaration on the Protection of all Persons from Enforced Disappearance (‘Declaration’) adopted by the United Nations General Assembly is characterised by the presence of three constitutive and cumulative elements: (1) deprivation of liberty; (2) by state authorities or groups or persons acting with the authorisation, support or acquiescence of the state; and (3) a refusal to acknowledge the deprivation of liberty or to disclose the fate or whereabouts of the disappeared person. The Rome Statute, however, adopts a definition that contains additional elements necessary to qualify conduct as enforced disappearance. Under art. 7(2)(i), ‘“[e]nforced disappearance of persons” means the arrest, detention or abduction of persons by, or with the authorization, support or acquiescence of, a State or a political organization, followed by a refusal to acknowledge that deprivation of freedom or to give information on the fate or whereabouts of those persons, with the intention of removing them from the protection of the law for a prolonged period of time.’ Here, we see an additional element of intent of removing a person from the protection of the law – and this, for a prolonged period of time. Every minute counts when a person is placed outside the protection of the law. And when a person has disappeared, every minute of anguish spent by his or her relatives without news of him or her is too much. The inclusion of a temporal element in the definition of enforced disappearance was considered during the drafting of the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance (CPED), adopted on 23 December 2010, and ultimately rejected (at 22-23). Neither the definition of enforced disappearance nor the practice and pronouncements of states suggest a minimum timeframe for considering conduct as amounting to an enforced disappearance. Today, as we recognise the continuing disturbing trend of enforced disappearance around the world, it is more important than ever to pursue all available accountability avenues to ensure justice for the disappeared and their close ones, and to signal the international community’s commitment to ending this abhorrent practice. (Source: ejiltalk)
September 1, 2023 Russian shelling struck the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson today close to 12:50 p.m. local time (0950 GMT) and a business in Vinnytsia region was hit by a Russian missile. Ukraine's air force said it shot down a second missile fired overnight over the central Kirovohrad region. (Source: reuters)
1 Sep 2023 Early morning today a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian town of Kurchatov - located just a few kilometres from the Soviet-era Kursk nuclear power station which is one of Russia’s largest - damaged an administrative and residential building, while a second drone was shot down near Lyubertsy, which is located approximately 20km southeast of central Moscow, local officials said. Moscow’s three main airports – Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo and Vnukovo – were reported to have cancelled and rescheduled flights early today morning due to reports of unidentified object flying in the capital’s airspace. Vnukovo airport resumed operations at 7:28am local time (04:28 GMT). (Source: aljazeera)
Ukraine
September 1, 2023 President Zelenskiy says he will stand for re-election if scheduled elections are held earlier next year, despite promising to only serve one term in office when he took over in 2019. In an interview with Portuguese public television RTP, Zelensky affirmed that if Ukraine remains embroiled at war in 2024, he will seek re-election for another term in office, should elections be held. Indeed, last week Zelenskiy warned citizens to brace themselves 'for a long war.' Technically Zelenskiy's four-year first term in office expires early next year and presidential elections should be held on March 31, 2024. However, Ukraine’s constitution forbids elections if the country is under martial law, which was imposed immediately following Russia’s invasion last year. The Rada extended martial law for another 90 days last week and will continue to do so until a ceasefire is called, theoretically making elections impossible, as there is no end to the hostilities in sight. The issue of elections came up during a visit to Kyiv by US Senator Graham as part of a US delegation on August 23. He said elections should go ahead. Zelenskiy glibly replied that he was open to the idea, 'if our Western partners pay for them.' He estimated the cost to be UAH5bn ($135mn) and also called on the West to send election observers to the front line, something that is very unlikely to happen as the battles there rage. Ukraine’s casualty figures are mounting, according to US intelligence reports. Official casualty figures remain a Ukrainian state secret, but a US intelligence report put the number of dead at 70,000, with over 100,000 wounded out of a total force of half a million men and women – a third of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been killed or wounded. (Source: intellinews)
North America
United States
September 1, 2023 Western allies and Ukrainians themselves had hung much hope on a counteroffensive that might change the balance on the battlefield, expose Russian vulnerability and soften Moscow up for a negotiated end to the fighting, which has stretched on for a year and half. Even the most sanguine of Ukraine’s backers did not predict that Ukraine would push Russian occupiers fully out of the country, an outcome that appears increasingly distant in light of the modest gains of the counteroffensive so far. Ukraine’s fight falters. The conditions on the battlefield raise the question of what might be done off it, even right now neither President Putin of Russia nor President Zelensky of Ukraine are ready to negotiate anything. Mr. Putin’s forces seem to be holding their defensive lines, and most analysts suggest he thinks that the West will tire of supporting Ukraine. He may also hope that Trump returns to the White House. Mr. Trump has promised to stop U.S. support for Ukraine and finish the war in a day. Even if he is not re-elected, he could be a strong voice in pushing the Republican Party to limit its support for Kyiv. But it is also not clear that Mr. Zelensky, after so much Ukrainian sacrifice, would feel politically able to negotiate even if Russia were pushed back to its positions when the war started, in February 2022. 'Even President Biden says the war is likely to end in negotiations'. Jenssen, the chief of staff to the secretary general of NATO, recently had his knuckles rapped when he commented on possible options for an end to the war in Ukraine that did not envision a complete Russian defeat. “I’m not saying it has to be like this, but I think that a solution could be for Ukraine to give up territory and get NATO membership in return,' he said during a panel discussion in Norway, according to the country’s VG newspaper. He also said that “it must be up to Ukraine to decide when and on what terms they want to negotiate,” which is NATO’s standard line. The remarks provoked an angry condemnation from the Ukrainians; a clarification from his boss, Stoltenberg; and ultimately an apology from Mr. Jenssen. The contretemps, say some analysts who have been similarly chastised, reflects a closing down of public discussion on options for Ukraine just at a moment when imaginative diplomacy is most needed, they say. Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, has also been criticized for suggesting that the interests of Washington and Kyiv do not always coincide and that it is important to talk to Russia about a negotiated outcome. “The lack of success hasn’t opened up the political space for an open discussion of alternatives. We’re a bit stuck,” he said. With the counteroffensive going so slowly, and American defense and intelligence officials beginning to blame the Ukrainians, Western governments are feeling more vulnerable after providing so much equipment and raising hopes, said Kupchan, a professor at Georgetown University and a former American official. The American hope, he said, was that the counteroffensive would succeed in threatening the Russian position in Crimea, which would put Ukraine in a stronger negotiating position. That has not happened. “So the political atmosphere has tightened,” he said, “and overall there is still a political taboo about a hardheaded conversation about the endgame.” Mr. Kupchan and Haass, the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs in April, urging Washington and its allies to come up with “a plan for getting from the battlefield to the negotiating table,” and were widely criticized for doing so. That criticism worsened considerably when the two men, together with Graham, a former American diplomat in Moscow, had private conversations with Russia’s foreign minister, Lavrov, to explore the possibility of negotiations. When the fact of those conversations leaked, there was a major outcry. While the three men have agreed not to discuss what was said, the reaction was telling, Mr. Kupchan said. “Any open discussion of a Plan B is politically fraught, as Mr. Jenssen found out the hard way, as do we who try to articulate possible Plan B’s,” he said. “We get a storm of criticism and abuse. What was somewhat taboo is now highly taboo.” If the counteroffensive is not going well, now would be the time to explore alternatives, he said. Instead, he suggested, Mr. Stoltenberg and others were simply doubling down on slogans like supporting Ukraine 'as long as it takes.' For many, the suggestion of a negotiated solution or a Plan B is too early and even immoral, said Stelzenmüller of the Brookings Institution. Mr. Putin shown no interest in talking, but the younger generation of officials around him are, if anything, even harder line, she said, citing a piece in Foreign Affairs by Stanovaya. “So anyone who wants to articulate a Plan B with these people on the other side is facing a significant burden of proof question,” she said. “Putin has said a lot of times he won’t negotiate except on his own terms, which are Ukraine’s obliteration. There is no lack of clarity there.” Any credible Plan B would have to come from the key non-Western powers - like China, India, South Africa and Indonesia — that Russia is depending upon telling Moscow it must negotiate. “These are the countries Putin is betting on,” she said. 'It’s nothing we can say or do or offer.' German officials are eager for a negotiated solution and are talking about how Russia might be brought to the negotiating table, but are only doing so in private and with trusted think tank specialists, said Puglierin, director of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. 'They understand that they can’t push Ukraine in any way, because Russia will smell weakness,' she said. Still, there is a desire in Berlin as in Washington that the war not continue indefinitely, she said, in part because political willingness for indefinite military and financial support for Ukraine is already beginning to wane, 'especially among those on the right and far-right, who are gaining ground". Eagerness from Paris or Berlin to negotiate too early will simply embolden Mr. Putin to manipulate that zeal, divide the West and seek concessions from Ukraine, said Speck, a German analyst. “Moving to diplomacy is both our strength and weakness,” he said. “We’re great at compromise and coalition, but that requires basic agreement on norms and goals. The shock of Ukraine is that this simply doesn’t exist on the other side.' (Source: dnyuz)
Friday, September 1, 2023 A U.S. congressional delegation visiting Taiwan said today the U.S. would act if the island was attacked and promised to resolve the $19 billion backlog in its defense purchases from the U.S, adding that both Republicans and Democrats were working on the issue. “Know that any hostile unprovoked attack on Taiwan will result in a resolute reaction from the U.S.,” said Wittman, vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, in a speech, ahead of meetings with President Tsai. U.S. law requires Washington provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and treat all threats to the island as matters of “grave concern,” but remains ambiguous on whether it would commit forces in response to an attack from China. Wittman of Virginia, along with Gimenez of Florida and Kiggans of Virginia, arrived yesterday for a three-day visit to Taiwan. The three Republicans are meeting with Tsai and the head of Taiwan's National Security Council Koo. Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by China, has faced increasing military harassment in recent years as Chinese fighter jets and navy ships hold daily exercises aimed at the island, often coming near the island or encircling it. Over the years, to beef up its defense, Taiwan has bought $19 billion in military items from the U.S., but most of that remains undelivered. In July, the United States has announced $345 million in military aid in a major package drawing on America’s own stockpiles. On August 30, the Biden administration approved the first-ever U.S. military transfer to Taiwan under a program generally reserved for assistance to sovereign, independent states. The amount was modest at $80 million, and officials did not specify what exactly the money would be used for. (Source: torontostar)
09/02/23 Across the United States, COVID-related hospitalizations have risen week over week since mid-July. Last week, hospitalizations rose by 19%, while deaths increased by nearly 18%. Facilities that care for the elderly are being hit especially hard. In the last week, one out of every four nursing homes or assisted living facilities in New Jersey has reported a COVID outbreak, according to official state data. Among the 615 nursing homes and assisted living facilities in the state, there are currently 158 active outbreaks affecting 534 employees and more than 1,300 residents. Since July, COVID hospitalizations across the state have more than doubled, but they still remain low, at 359 this week as of August 30. At the same time last year, there were around 1,000 hospitalizations in the state. Bergen County, just northwest of New York City, has by far the highest number of facilities reporting outbreaks, at 25. As of August 29, there were 248 active cases among residents, with 56 staff members also said to have tested positive for the virus. Four residents have died. School closures due to COVID have started to sporadically pop up throughout the country as well, with two districts in Kentucky and one in Texas being forced to temporarily close their doors mere weeks after opening them to students. Mask mandates have also started to reemerge at some schools, hospitals and businesses across the U.S. as well. Despite this, neither health experts nor government officials have signaled that widespread mandates will make a return. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said that mask requirements are not expected to be needed again, at least not any time soon. The Transportation Security Administration recently shot down rumors that they had briefed their managers in preparation of reinstating masking policies; a spokesperson for the administration denied the claims. Health experts still recommend that members of vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and immunocompromised, and those who care for them practice caution during this time. 'Many have suggested that this group mask up in public places and also consider getting the updated COVID boosters when they become available later in the fall'. (Source: themessenger)
Fri, Sep 1, 2023 Labor Day weekend may bring an increase in Covid cases as people flock to beaches to celebrate the end of summer with friends and family. There is potential for a major spike in Covid cases following Labor Day weekend, when socializing will be at its peak with people going to parties, parades, and celebrations. The CDC recommends that all people are up to date on their vaccines before they travel. "Anyone may choose to wear a mask in crowded or poorly ventilated indoor areas, including on public transportation and in transportation hubs at any time," CDC spokesperson Pauley told. Carnethon, a professor of Preventive Medicine at Northwestern University, told that she expects the new Covid BA.2.86 variant - dubbed ‘Pirola’ - will “spread rapidly through travel this Labor Day weekend.” “The urgency and concern about Covid infection in the general population appears to be very low. I anticipate that masking will remain a personal choice,” she said. “I do not believe that any regulatory bodies are likely to issue mask mandates because the public is not likely to be compliant," Carnethon added. Some health experts are recommending people begin taking precautions again - starting with mask-wearing. New Yorkers told to mask up for Labor Day as new Covid variant sparks superspread fears. "As cases rise, precautions become increasingly important, especially for our most vulnerable New Yorkers who are older, disabled, or have underlying health conditions," Gallahue of the New York City Department of Health told. "Staying up to date with Covid vaccines, along with other proven prevention tools – like masking, testing, and staying home when sick – continue to be our best defense against Covid and other respiratory viruses." 'An updated vaccine for new strains is expected to be available by the end of September - the CDC recommends everyone receive a booster shot'. (Source: the-express)
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