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Europe
Hungary
December 1, 2023 'The oligarchization of the economy, in my opinion, is much broader than most Hungarians realise." Hungary is not following a state capitalism model. It is not the state itself that owns most strategic assets, but businessmen close to the party in power, Fidesz. This is closer to the Putin playbook, creating a class of oligarchs that controls the commanding heights of the economy (banks, telecom interests, utilities, highway concessions, waste management, etc.) right down to an enormous network of small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Public assets, such as universities, have been rolled into foundations which are controlled, once again, by parties close to and dependent on Fidesz, for the very long-term. From the perspective of Fidesz: Should Fidesz lose power, under the oligarch model, presumably most oligarchs would remain loyal to Fidesz and could continue to provide a significant economic hinterland to Fidesz, from campaign financing to jobs and contracts to loyalists. These companies could withhold service and create disruption in the economy, bringing into question the economic competence of a successor government, thereby exercising a profoundly anti-democratic effect. What happens if an oligarch goes rogue? In 2015 Orbán decided to permit direct enrichment of oligarchs, rather than just filling Fidesz coffers. Simicska switched his allegiance to Jobbik, a far right political party at the time, which frontally attacked Fidesz ('We work, you steal!' was their main slogan). A resolution was reached in 2017, a few months before elections, when a buyout of Simicska’s assets by former gas equipment service man, Mészáros, being Orbán’s strawman, was arranged, including the purchase of construction company Közgép, and key media assets, for HUF 45 billion (over $300 million). An example of potentially losing oligarch assets via succession was the death of world-famous movie mogul Vajna. Normally, a simple estate procedure takes a year or more in Hungary. Vajna’s casinos were transferred to an investor group close to Garancsi, another businessman close to Fidesz, with unusual speed. Interests close to the government are negotiating for the purchase of Budapest Airport, a strategic asset worth a few billion euros. Rumour has it that French Vinci will co-invest and manage the asset. Interests close to the government have recently purchased a majority interest in Auchan, a supermarket chain, and at least one other international supermarket chain is bracing for an 'irresistible offer'. The creation of Magyar Bank Holding (MBH) from the merger of three nationalised banks (Budapest Bank, Takarékbank, and MKB Bank) to create an oligarch super-bank, offers the potential of accelerating this process of oligarchization, providing cheap and easy financing for oligarchs to buy and leverage assets. 4iG, a technology holding firm close to Fidesz, recently raised over EUR 400 million from MKB, with a state guarantee to boot, to buy Vodafone Hungary. So where does this all lead? Productivity growth of Hungarian companies (0.8% per year) is less than half of the European average (2%) over the past decade. Many SME owners are not willing to grow their businesses beyond a certain point for fear of becoming a target for oligarchs. "There comes a point when confidence of investors, domestic and foreign, may diminish or evaporate', Nemethy, "the CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors Ltd and a former official at the World Bank' wrote. (Source: intellinews)
Germany
2023. dec. 1. A report conducted by the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) before the October attack found that since 2017, between 700 and 1,000 cases of Islamaphobic crimes have been reported to the police, with many others believed to go unreported. It also found that one in two people in the country agree with anti-Muslim statements. Germany has 5.5 million Muslim citizens – one of the biggest communities in Europe. Muslims in Germany feel increasingly alienated by the public discourse after Hamas-Israel conflict. In the second half of October, the number of anti-Muslim incidents has increased to three a day on average, including ten attacks on mosques, with a high number of undetected cases, according to CLAIM, a government-supported non-profit. Representatives of the Muslim community in Germany are concerned about increased marginalisation and a rise in Islamophobic incidents amidst a heated debate around anti-Semitism. 'The blanket suspicion towards Muslims, the de-facto marginalisation of Muslim interests and the voice of Muslims has created a serious [crisis of confidence] that we will have to deal with for years,' Mazyek, chair of the General Council of Muslims in Germany (ZMD), told on 27 November. He described an atmosphere of intimidation, with a spike in attacks on women wearing a hijab and Muslim students being singled out and challenged on their views by teachers. Last week, at the most recent Islam Conference (DIK), a forum initiated by the Interior Ministry to bring Muslim communities, the state, and civil society together, the theme was switched from Islamaphobia to anti-Semitism while the country’s largest Muslim organisation, ZMD, was not invited for unspecified reasons. Interior Minister Faeser mostly called out Muslim anti-Semitism in her speech and left shortly after – due to what a ministry spokesperson called time pressures. Still, Muslims in Germany, including their religious leaders, face pressure from civil society to address anti-Semitism coming from within their ranks. “In this situation, Islamic organisations should primarily address Muslims and, in my view, very little is coming from them. […] Public statements are nice but they don’t achieve anything,” Schuster, the president of the General Council of German Jews, told. 'Currently, Islamist anti-Semitism is evident in Germany and puts Jews in danger. However, we should not believe that right-wing anti-Semitism has suddenly disappeared,' Schuster said. 'In parallel with a surge in anti-Semitic incidents, Muslims in Germany have also seen a surge in hatred directed at them. It’s important to distinguish between private Muslim citizens and Islamic organisations,' Kaddor, a leading Green MP and influential advocate for Muslim causes told. Media and political leaders have highlighted recent anti-Semitic incidents, including crowds that appeared to be celebrating the Hamas attack in migrant-dominated quarters of Berlin, and caliphate flags shown at pro-Palestinian protests. A public debate shaped in part by Germany’s historical guilt for the Holocaust has left little room to embrace Palestinian grief too, some observers say. The German government insisted on 27 November that it continues to back the two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but stated that Israel’s protection was more pressing. (Source: euractiv)
Russia
Dec 1 2023 Four blasts rocked the ten-mile tunnel in the Severomuyskiy mountains as a train passed through last night. A source claimed Ukraine's SBU intelligence service was behind the attack in Russia's far east. 'There was an explosion on the Baikal-Amur mainline, in the Severomuyskiy tunnel. Currently, this route, which Russia uses for military supplies, is paralysed,' a Kyiv security source told. The tunnel attack could hamper trade with China. A 41-wagon goods train - including three tankers filled with aviation fuel - was reportedly blown up yesterday. And it will also limit the movement of Russian troops and military supplies from eastern Russia, where many of Putin’s conscripts hail from. Russian media reported a fire in the Severomuyskiy tunnel, but did not elaborate on what had caused it. They said specialist fire trains raced to the scene and no one had been hurt. 'The railway workers are unsuccessfully trying to minimise the consequences of the SBU special operation,' the source in Kyiv claimed. The blasts came only hours after a Ukrainian cyber attack saw a message from President Zelensky broadcast on TVs across occupied Crimea. Together with his spy chief Lt Gen Budanov, they declared: 'Crimea is ours.' The pair vowed to expel Russian forces and return annexed Crimea to Ukraine. 'The daring hack also saw the message 'Putin is a d***head' displayed on Crimean TVs'. Budanov's wife, along with intelligence officials, were poisoned with arsenic and mercury this week. Budanov and his senior officers are responsible for an increasing amount of daring attacks on Putin's home turf and have also taken responsibility for targeting key Russian war officials and Kremlin propagandists. Meanwhile, the Russian ruler revealed his dream as he demanded women serve Russia by having eight or more kids. "Large families must become the norm," Putin said in a TV address. “Thank God many of our people have a tradition of a strong multi-generational family, raising four, five and more children. “Let us remember how in Russian families many of our grandmothers and great grandmothers had seven, eight, or even more children. “Let's preserve and revive these wonderful traditions. “Having many children, a large family, should become a norm, a way of life for all the peoples of Russia," Putin said. The leader is now scrambling to reverse a plummeting birth rate and mass exodus - even plotting to trade prison sentences for pregnancies and limiting access to abortions. (Source: the-sun *)
* The U.S.Sun
Russia
01/12/2023 President Putin issued a decree today that would boost troop numbers 15 percent. 'The increase in the full-time strength of the army is due to growing threats to our country linked with the special military operation and the continuing expansion of NATO," the army said, adding that some 170,000 soldiers would join the force as a response to the "aggressive activity of the NATO bloc'. Russia said today its troops were advancing in every section of the Ukrainian front. The front lines have barely shifted in 2023 but fighting has remained intense. In recent days, improving weather conditions - following powerful storms across southern Ukraine and Russia earlier this week - have enabled Russia's forces to intensify their assaults and use drones again, Ukrainian officials said. The latest major flashpoint is the nearly encircled industrial town of Avdiivka. Part of the Donetsk region, the city - which was once home to around 30,000 people - has been on the front line since 2014. In a briefing with Russia's top military brass, Shoigu said his men were "effectively and firmly inflicting fire damage on the Ukrainian armed forces, significantly reducing their combat capabilities'. His ministry announced on November 29 it had taken control of Khromove, a small village on the outskirts of Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk region. Other territorial gains have proved elusive. Russian forces launched more than two dozen Iranian-designed attack drones and two missiles on the south and east of the country overnight, Ukraine said. The air force said it downed 18 of the drones and one missile over southern regions. Ukraine also said today it had orchestrated attacks on a Russian railway line in Siberia. 'Another fuel train has exploded on the Baikal-Amur railway,' a source in Ukrainian law enforcement agencies told, referring to the SBU security services. Moscow confirmed that earlier this week a train crew had spotted smoke in a fuel tank and called firefighters to the scene. Russia's defence ministry said it had destroyed a Ukrainian naval drone off the western coast of Crimea. (Source: france24)
December 1, 2023 Russian investigators said today a dual Russian-Italian national had been detained for planting bombs on railway tracks as part of a sabotage campaign orchestrated by Ukrainian military intelligence. After his arrest, the man, born in 1988 and a resident of Ryazan, confessed to planting home-made bombs that derailed a freight train in central Russia on Nov. 11. Investigators accuse him of launching a drone attack against a military airfield in the Ryazan region in July and derailing a freight train using an explosive device last month. "During questioning, the detainee confessed and said that in February 2023 he was recruited by an employee of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine,' the Investigative Committee said. The detained man admitted undergoing 'sabotage training in Latvia with the direct participation of the Latvian special services,' the Committee said. A freight train was derailed on Nov. 11 near the town of Rybnoe, about 177 km south-east of Moscow. (Source: reuters)
Ukraine
2023. dec. 1. President Zelenskyy called for faster construction of fortifications in key sectors under pressure from Russian forces, particularly in eastern Ukraine, the focal point of Moscow’s advances. 'In all major sectors where reinforcement is needed, there should be a boost and an acceleration in the construction of structures,' Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on 30 November. 'This of course means the greatest attention to the Avdiivka, Maryinka and other sectors in Donetsk region. In Kharkiv region, this means the Kupiansk sector and the Kupiansk-Lyman line.' Zelenskyy issued his appeal after touring Ukrainian positions in the northeast, one of several areas where Russian forces have been trying to make recent headway and recapture areas taken back by Ukrainian troops a year ago. Russia has boosted attacks in several areas. These include Kupiansk near Kharkiv, retaken by Ukraine in a drive through the northeast a year ago. Ukrainian troops have made only incremental gains in the east and south. Russian forces have focused attention since mid-October on the devastated town of Avdiivka, known for its vast coking plant and its position as a gateway to the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk, 20 km to the east. 'The plant is under our control. The enemy is suffering significant losses there,' military spokesperson Shtupun told, noting Russian artillery and air attacks inside and around the town. Russian forces have also been pressing near contested villages surrounding the equally shattered town of Bakhmut, captured by Russian forces in May after months of fighting. Russia’s Defence Ministry on November 29 announced the capture of village Khromove. Unofficial Ukrainian accounts dispute that claim. Ukrainian military analyst Hrabskyi said the Russians sought to capitalise on their capture of Bakhmut to advance on at least three cities to the west. “It is crucial for the enemy to develop things in tactical terms with an eye to possibly advancing on Kostyantynivka, as well as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk,” Hrabskyi told. (Source: euractiv)
Asia
China
Dec 01, 2023 China is set to impose export controls on certain graphite products, potentially having a significant impact in the United States on both electric vehicle manufacturing and some military applications. In 2018, the U.S. Government underscored the criticality of graphite by including it on a list of 35 essential minerals, highlighting its vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and its importance in manufacturing processes crucial to the economy or national security. The restrictions, set to take effect from December 1, were announced on October 20 by China's General Administration of Customs and Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). Analysts Benson and Denamiel, writing for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), highlighted the particular significance of these restrictions: "While the August controls were aimed at the chips sector, China's graphite controls have more bite in electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing since the material is used as a key input for anodes, the negatively charged portion of the EV battery." In 2022, China was the top graphite-producing country in the world, as it produced an estimated 850,000 metric tons of graphite, a crystalline form of carbon. Shu, a spokeswoman for the MOFCOM, said that such export controls are an international norm and, to date, the ministry hasn't received any exemption applications from companies. The latest decision comes after China announced further export control restrictions on rare earths last month without naming the minerals covered by the restrictions. China's top spy agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS), framed the context of these controls in broader terms in a WeChat post: "Just as human life is inseparable from vitamins, critical minerals are also called the 'vitamins' of strategic industries and are related to national development and national security". The MSS further criticized Western nations for their approach to securing critical minerals: "Some Western countries seek their own selfish interests and have established various 'small circles' such as the International Alliance on Energy and Critical Minerals, the Mineral Security Partnership, and the Sustainable Critical Minerals Alliance, and built 'small courtyards and high walls' to obtain critical mineral resources by any means, seriously hindering the process of globalization." The United States is heavily involved in the three critical mineral alliances mentioned. (Source: newsweek)
Gaza
1 December 2023 Explosions have been heard and smoke was seen rising in several parts of Gaza, after combat in the region resumed. Gaza City, Rafah and Khan Younis were among the places hit. A pause in fighting between Hamas and Israel lasted seven days, during which time 110 hostages held by Hamas and 240 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel were released. (Source: bbc)
1 Dec (2023) Restart in hostilities. Deadline to extend ceasefire has passed. Israel says it has resumed fighting with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Hamas did not agree to release further hostages, which violated the terms of the truce. Hamas believes that Israel violated the truce agreement by not allowing fuel into the north of the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Hamas was unwilling to release Israeli men held in Gaza on the same terms as the women and child hostages. In Gaza, 137 people who were kidnapped in the Hamas attacks on 7 October remain hostage – 20 women and 117 men, including Israeli military personnel. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says 32 people have been killed in three hours. It says more than 14,800 people have been killed, including about 6,000 children, since Israel began its campaign against Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military appears to have dropped leaflets warning residents of Khan Younis in southern Gaza to head further south for their safety in nearby Rafah - close to the Egyptian border. This evening, a source close to the ceasefire talks in Qatar says negotiations about hostages have collapsed. Another truce does not, at the moment, seem likely. The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) says Israel has blocked humanitarian aid from reaching the Gaza Strip "until further notice". The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says 178 people have been killed in Israeli strikes, since the end of the truce this morning. "Most of whom are children and women,' the ministry says in a statement. It adds that there were also 589 injuries recorded during the day. Today the World Health Organization (WHO) was hoping to coordinate emergency medical teams to support Gaza’s few hospitals which are still functioning, but it says this is now unlikely. In al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, which the WHO visited during the week-long truce, the team reported patients with 'the most horrific injuries' lying on floors 'running with blood', while the bodies of those who had been killed were lined up in the car park outside. Fighting, and the scarcity of water, electricity and fuel, has collapsed Gaza’s healthcare system. Israel said its warplanes attacked 200 targets throughout Gaza today. Late in the evening, reports from Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, spoke of some of the heaviest bombardment yet. (Source: bbc)
Israel
1 December 2023 Israel this morning relaunched its brutal offensive with full force, firing a barrage of missiles and sending warplanes screaming over Gaza as a week-long ceasefire expired today. According to a WSJ report, Israel has already started the preparation for targeted killings abroad. The Israeli officials told WSJ: 'The question now for Israeli leaders isn't about whether to try to kill Hamas leaders elsewhere in the world, but where - and how.' In November, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a press conference: 'I have instructed the Mossad to act against the heads of Hamas wherever they are'. During the same conference Israel Minister of Defence Gallant said the Hamas leaders were 'marked for death.' Hamas group's members are known to hide across the Middle East. Hamas terror chief Haniyeh was spotted cheering for joy from the safety of his Qatar office during the October 7 terror attacks. Former Mossad director Halevy reportedly described the plan as 'far-fetched'. 'Pursuing Hamas on a worldwide scale and trying to systematically remove all its leaders from this world is a desire to exact revenge, not a desire to achieve a strategic aim,' he said. Le Figaro reported that Qatar received assurances from Israel that Mossad will not eliminate terrorists on their soil. Despite the fresh violence, Qatari and Egyptian mediators are still negotiating a new extension of the seven-day truce. (Source: dailymail)
Some comments:
- "Extra judicial killings are murder."
- "Excellent, start in London."
- "Eliminate the threats for the future generations".
Taiwan
Dec 1, 2023 Beijing has sponsored cut-price trips to China for hundreds of Taiwanese politicians ahead of key elections on the island, according to Taiwan sources and documents, unnerving officials with a broad campaign that one called "election interference". President Tsai and other Taiwan officials have warned that China might try to sway voters toward candidates seeking closer ties with Beijing in the elections, which could define the island's relations with China. Beijing, which claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own and has ramped up military and political pressure to force the island to accept its sovereignty, frames the Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections as a choice between "peace and war', calling the ruling party dangerous separatists and urging Taiwanese to make the 'right choice'. Taiwanese law forbids election campaigns from receiving money from "external hostile forces", including China. Beijing was targeting politicians crucial to the island's administrative systems who play key roles in shaping public opinion. Taiwan's Mainland minister, Chiu said it was 'self-evident" Beijing was trying to sway Taiwan elections through means including free trips for politicians. 'They have already made it clear that a so-called 'right choice' has to be made, meaning choosing candidates that the Chinese Communist Party prefers,' he told. Across Taiwan security agencies are looking into more than 400 visits to China in the past month, most led by local opinion leaders such as borough chiefs and village heads. People taking these trips typically pay their own airfare, but other expenses are offered by Chinese authorities. The agencies believe the trips, with discounted accommodations, transportation and meals, were subsidised by units under China's Taiwan Affairs Office. More than 20 borough chiefs from a district of the capital Taipei joined a China-sponsored trip to Shanghai with their families in September, while more than 10 people from an association for local politicians in neighbouring New Taipei City joined a trip this week, according to two security reports. "Certain borough chiefs have become the window of contacts in Taiwan for some Chinese units." In the investigation in the southern city of Kaohsiung, prosecutors said they believed the five trips from there were fully funded by China's Taiwan Affairs Office. So far this year, more than 1,000 borough chiefs or village heads joined such trips, more than last time, the official said, adding China was targeting electoral districts where support was strong for candidates campaigning for closer China ties. Building criminal cases against trip-takers is challenging, security officials said, because it can be hard to establish a money trail to Chinese state agencies behind the tours, which often come much below the going market rate, and to establish what was said during meetings with Chinese officials. Taiwan suspended group tours to China via travel agencies after the COVID-19 pandemic, but there are no restrictions on individuals visiting. (Source: indiatoday)
South America
Venezuela
Fri, December 1, 2023 A century-old territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana is threatening to escalate into a shooting war. Venezuelans going to the polls Sunday will be asked to answer in a five-part referendum an unusually provocative question: Should their government be given a blank check to invade neighboring Guyana, and wrest away three-quarters of its oil-rich territory? Venezuela claims ownership of about 61,600 square miles of Guyana, tracing its possession to the time both countries were European colonies. Although Venezuela has unceasingly contested an 1899 ruling made by international arbitrators that established the current borders between the two countries, it had allowed the issue to remain on the back burner for decades. The new area would be called Guayana Esequiba, a new Venezuelan state encompassing 74% of English-speaking Guyana’s current landmass. The resolution to put the question to Venezuelan voters was approved in September by the Maduro-controlled National Assembly, which said it is intended to “allow the Venezuelan people to express their views on a significant territorial dispute.” The regime has already launched an aggressive propaganda campaign over the news outlets it controls, with TV and radio stations every few minutes broadcasting jingles promoting one constant message: “The Essequibo is ours.” An overwhelming yes vote is expected, given that even Maduro’s opponents have either refrained from criticizing the referendum or have actually supported it. A yes vote on the referendum may provoke public demand that Maduro act to take over the disputed territory. Many Guyanese see the threat as real and fear the loss of their citizenship. The Essequibo area has more than 230,000 resident, a third of Guyanese population. Experts say an armed conflict with Guyana would lead to greater international isolation for Maduro, given that Guyana is a member of CARICOM, the 15-member Caribbean trade bloc whose support has been essential for Caracas in international forums such as the U.N. and the Organization of American States. In a press release last month the group said Venezuelan threats to stop Guyana from developing Essequibo’s natural resources is “contrary to international law.” Is meant Maduro‘s gambit to force Guyana to the negotiating table and give Venezuela a piece of the Essequibo? This week Brazil - a close ally of both nations that shares its border with both - sent top foreign advisor Amorin to mediate while announcing that it was increasing its military presence along its northern border amid fears that the long-standing dispute could turn into a war. Brazil cannot afford to allow that to happen, especially the forced aspect. Some of the country’s neighbors base their own borders on the same 1899 arbitration decision. Brazil has a border with every South American country with the exception of Chile and Ecuador, and some of those countries are not happy with their borders with Brazil. The border dispute is currently before the United Nations’ International Court of Justice. Guyana has asked the court to rule the 1899 decision valid and binding. In November, Guyana again went before the court, this time asking it to halt parts of Venezuela’s five-part referendum. The country hopes to have a decision from the court on Friday about the referendum. (Source: yahoo)
Globalization
December 1, 2023 Competing visions summed up the most divisive issue facing world leaders at this year's U.N. climate summit in Dubai, in the oil-producing United Arab Emirates. U.N. Secretary General Guterres urged world leaders at the COP28 climate summit to plan for a future without fossil fuels, saying there was no other way to curb global warming. Speaking a day after COP28 president al-Jaber proposed embracing the continued use of fossil fuels, Guterres said: "We cannot save a burning planet with a fire hose of fossil fuels." "The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate," he said. "Unless we rapidly repair and restore nature's economy, based on harmony and balance, which is our ultimate sustainer, our own economy and survivability will be imperilled," said King Charles III of Britain, who has spent most of his adult life campaigning on the environment. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to admonish wealthy countries for their role in releasing the most climate-warming emissions since the Industrial Revolution. "Over the past century, a small section of humanity has indiscriminately exploited nature. However, entire humanity is paying the price for this, especially people living in the global south,' Modi said. Heine, a former Marshall Islands president, whose country faces inundation from climate-driven sea level rise, resigned from the main COP28 advisory board today in objection to the UAE's support of continued use of fossil fuels. The United Nations today published its first draft for what could serve as a template for a final agreement from the COP28 summit, which ends Dec. 12. The draft's central problem is of whether, and to what extent, fossil fuels should play a role in the future. One of the options involves including commitments to phase down or phase out the use of fossil fuels, to quit coal energy and to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Also on the table for discussion is whether to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, which totaled some $7 trillion last year, and whether to include provisions for carbon capture and removal technology. The summit also clinched an early victory by adopting a new fund to help poor nations cope with climate disasters. Delegations and technical committees set to work today on the mammoth task of assessing their progress in meeting global climate targets, specifically the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to within 2 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial temperatures. Scientists say that a global temperature rise beyond this threshold will unleash catastrophic and irreversible impacts worldwide. (Source: reuters)
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