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Europe
Hungary
November 05, 2024 08:33 GMT One of the highlights of Hungary's rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of this year will come on November 7 as the Hungarian capital is hosting the summit of the European Political Community (EPC) - a political forum bringing together the leaders of almost all European states (bar Belarus, Russia, and the Vatican). Hungarian PM Orbán is getting his big moment: that evening and the next day, there will be a meeting of the 27 EU heads of government to mainly discuss how to make the bloc more competitive. Will Orbán unveil a big surprise? As the U.S. presidential race on November 5. is expected to be a tight affair, it's possible the winner may still not be known by the time the leaders gather on the morning of November 7 The formal part of the EPC will last just a few hours, with a short plenary dealing with security challenges. That will be followed by breakout sessions focusing on migration and economic security before concluding with a second plenary. What really matters at the summit is the chance for some diplomatic speed dating in an informal setting - something the leaders reportedly love about the EPC format. A document, „devised by Michel’, called the Budapest Declaration On The New European Competitiveness Deal. The draft, which Michel is hoping the leaders will endorse, notes that the EU's share of world gross domestic product (GDP) has halved over the last two decades, that retail prices for industrial electricity in the EU are three times higher than for the other major world economies, and that "as a share of GDP, the EU spends one-third less on research and development than other major economies in the OECD." Some EU member states think the 10-page document is too long; some are furious that it mentions the next long-term EU budget (always a fraught discussion, as it concerns who pays how much); and others are peeved that it mentions convergence on taxation, another sensitive topic. Others are not happy about what the document has left out: for example, support for nuclear energy or more European defense spending. The age-old Brussels problem is agreeing on a way forward on anything. "We are in a hostile, global environment in which we rightly have identified that we need to become more competitive on every level, yet we get stuck arguing about commas and bullet points in a document few [people] will read,' one diplomat told. An issue to be discussed at the EPC, and particularly the informal EU summit, will be the October 26 Georgian parliamentary elections. They were won by the ruling Georgian Dream party. The EU is divided on how to respond and whether or not the vote was free and fair. Even OSCE/ODIHR election observers hadn't pronounced whether or not the elections were free and fair. Who will represent Tbilisi at the EPC summit? At the last one, at Blenheim Palace in the United Kingdom in July, it was Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze. It is Budapest that handles the invitations. Don't be surprised if Orbán wants his ally from Georgian Dream present. In last year's release of its annual enlargement report, the EU executive European Commission for Georgia proposed granting candidate status. In this year’s report, presented by the European Commission on October 30, the EU executive prioritized a report on improving civilian and defense preparedness. It tells you quite a lot about how much importance the bloc’s executive gives to further enlargement at this point. How hard the EU executive would be on Georgia? Last time around, the EU executive gave Tbilisi nine conditions in various policy fields to complete in order to start accession talks. Here, Brussels simply concluded that the South Caucasus republic had made ’insignificant progress’ and noted ’a lack of sufficient political commitment of the authorities’ to undergo necessary reforms. Citing the recent adoption of the controversial "foreign influence" law, similar to Russia's "foreign agent" law, and anti-LGBT laws, as well as "strong anti-EU narratives from Georgian officials," the document concluded that the the EU executive 'will not be in a position to consider recommending opening negotiations with Georgia.’ The truth is that the bloc is unsure of how to read the Georgian elections on October 26. The EU is divided on this. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán raced down to Tbilisi to congratulate his political allies, while Europe ministers from 15 EU member states issued a statement at least questioning the fairness of the vote and underlining that Orbán wasn't speaking on behalf of the bloc. ’These divisions will make potential future sanctions’ on Georgia's current leadership hard to agree on. Hungary, and probably also Slovakia, will be vetoing them. ’And then there is the issue of actually finding some offense that is sanctionable, pinpointing it on high-enough officials, and then backing it up with evidence. Right now, that seems like a tall order for Brussels’ EU executive European Commission. What is left, ’apart from cutting more funds to Tbilisi, is to suspend visa liberalization’, which only requires a qualified majority of member states to back. The EU will be discussing this at the informal EU summit in Budapest next week and when EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels later in November. But is there really an appetite to punish the entire population?! So, what about the more positive aspects of the EU executive reports? There was happy reading for Albania. Earlier in October, Tirana opened its first cluster of accession chapters, and in December the Eu executive hopes that member states will open yet another batch. It also endorses the country's highly ambitious goal to close accession negotiations by the end of 2027. The seemingly hopeless case of Bosnia’s accession talks: It so far have failed with basic conditions such as appointing a chief negotiator to the EU talks, a team during those talks, and a national plan to transpose EU laws to the national legislation - reflecting Sarajevo's dysfunctional internal politics in which the country's entities can rarely agree on any way forward. And the seemingly hopeless case of Pristina's EU application: It is languishing in the European Council, where member states still aren't too keen to send it over to the EU executive - the European Commission - for an opinion on membership feasibility; at least not before the February parliamentary elections in the country. The EU executive hopes that Chisinau further steps up anti-corruption and "de-oligarchization". There was also happy reading for Montenegro which has already opened all 30+ chapters. The EU executive hopes that some chapters actually can be closed by the end of the year, and that talks conclude at the end of 2026, a bridge too far. And the seemingly hopeless case of North Macedonia which remains stuck as long as it doesn't change its constitution according to Bulgaria's wishes, something that doesn't look likely to happen anytime soon. Serbia? For the third year running, the the EU executive recommends that Belgrade should be allowed to open more EU accession chapters. This is something that Hungary, which currently holds the rotating EU Presidency of the European Council is keen on as well. Don't rule out that Budapest might want to trade a green light for Serbia moving ahead in late 2024 with giving its OK to Ukraine sometime in 2025. And then there is President Zelenskiy, who is poised to make his first visit to Hungary since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Zelenskiy and Orbán have sparred on numerous occasions, notably on Hungary's reluctance to channel more EU funds to Kyiv and skepticism toward Ukraine's EU and NATO membership. The the EU executive hopes Kyiv needs to keep on fighting organized crime and continue to improve legislation for national minorities. So the U.S. election isn't the only interesting news. And this week there are also the hearings in the European Parliament for the proposed new European commissioners. The hearing of the enlargement commissioner-designate, Kos, is taking place on November 7. A discussion paper on migration ahead of the EPC meeting notes that the priority in this area will mainly be the fight against human smuggling and trafficking. The paper also notes that "we need to be extremely vigilant not to allow people in conflict areas to become tools in the hands of hostile regimes in a hybrid war. We must be equally determined to counter the phenomenon where nonstate actors willingly or not willingly become collaborators of criminal organizations." The document is underlining that "we should ensure solid mechanisms for effective returns, especially for the removal of those who pose a serious threat to public order or internal security. We should also continue to explore innovative solutions as possible ways forward, including the idea of developing return hubs outside Europe." (Source: Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty - U.S.)
by „Jozwiak, an Europe editor for RFE/RL, in Prague.
North America
United States
Tue 5 Nov 2024 10.25 CET Reform UK leader Farage, a friend of Trump says ex-president should accept result, ‘go and play golf' at Turnberry in Scotland, if he loses to Harris’ but added that the Democratic candidate should pardon him. He said he hoped there would be no unrest after the result. Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts and is facing sentencing later in November for 'falsifying business records over payments to the adult' film star Daniels days before his victorious 2016 election. Farage, who has criticised Labour activists for travelling to campaign for Harris, said: 'If she gets in on Tuesday I hope she pardons him. She could look magnanimous and it would dampen down potential tensions. “It’s all hypothetical and I still think he is going to win,” he said. Farage attended Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania yesterday, a key swing state where both candidates held rallies the day before the election. “I just hope to God it’s a clear result. It is nearly a quarter of a century ago we had the hanging chads and dimpled chads and here we are 25 years on with huge questions about how Americans conduct elections. I find it incredible’, he told the Telegraph. Farage also said he hoped Trump would bring in Musk, the owner of X and Tesla, to make big cuts to US spending, saying that was aligned with Reform UK’s thinking in Britain. “This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80% of the staff,” Farage said. “There are going to be mass layoffs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond. “Because that’s what Reform UK believes in – that we’re overbureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting.” Farage also attended the Republican national convention in Milwaukee in July. His entry in the MPs’ register of interests says the near-£33,000 costs for him and a staffer were paid for by a Thai-based British businessman, Harborne. Farage listed the purpose of the trip as “to support a friend who was almost killed and to represent Clacton [his constituency] on the world stage”. (The Guardian – United Kingdom)
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