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Europe
Bulgaria
30 November 2023 In Bulgaria local elections were held on 29 October. The investigative journalism site Bivol revealed suspicious links between the elected centrist mayor of Varna, Kotsev, and some offshore transactions. Bivol's journalists claim that Kotsev was investigated by prosecutors before being granted the protection of mayoral candidate status. Kotsev was one of the few mayors from the pro-European PP-DB coalition to outperform the ruling GERB in major cities. (Source: voxeurop)
Romania
30 November 2023 Prelude to electoral 2024. With European and local elections dominating the agenda across the region, the media have already stepped up their efforts to expose the misuse of public resources, corruption and manipulation. For example, to interview Romanian President Iohannis, whose ten-year term ends in November 2024, the daily Libertatea sent one of its reporters to Cabo Verde, where Iohannis and his entourage, including his wife, had stopped on a tour designed to 'put Romania back on the African radar.' After examining one of the president's rented business jets and researching the presidential travel policies of other European countries, the investigative journalists from Recorder concluded that 'Romania turns out to be the only country in the EU where the president travels with private planes and then keeps the costs secret.' (Source: voxeurop)
The Netherlands
2023. nov. 30. A week after Dutch leader Wilders sparked a political earthquake in the Netherlands and further afield with a stunning election victory, his task of building a coalition has become even more difficult. Wilders needs the backing of 76 MPs in the 150-seat parliament for a working majority. His Party for Freedom has 37 seats and his preferred coalition is with the BBB farmers party (seven seats), the all-new pro-reform New Social Party (20 seats) and the current ruling party, the centre-right VVD (24 seats). Wilders suffered a setback to his goal of forming a governing coalition yesterday. The VVD has already ruled out participation, saying it would support a centre-right coalition from the opposition benches. Wilders’ anti-Islam, anti-immigrant, and anti-EU manifesto also calls for a halt in weapons supplies to Ukraine. A key potential partner, the Dutch New Social Contract (NSC) and its list leader Omtzigt said on November 29, it did not see a way of working with the PVV unless it clarified the 'extreme parts' of its manifesto, which 'contains views which in our judgement go against the constitution… here we draw a hard line,” said a letter from Omtzigt to the scout charged with overseeing the negotiations. The manifesto calls for a ban on mosques, headscarves and the Koran, as well as a referendum on a Nexit - the Netherlands leaving the European Union. “All in all, the NSC faction does not now see any basis to start talks with the PVV about a majority or a minority government.' Wilders moderated his tone during the election campaign and has stressed since election night that he wants to be prime minister “for all Dutch” regardless of race or religion. “We notice that Mr Wilders has said he wants to put the relevant parts of his manifesto ‘in the freezer’. What is the status of the PVV manifesto now?” asked the NSC. (Source: euractiv)
European Parliament
2023. nov. 30. Just a few months before the EU elections, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the main political power in the EU, set to win 175 seats, three fewer than they currently hold, according to a new projection about EU Parliament’s seats by Europe Elects seen before its publication later today. The socialist S&D would remain at 141. The polls suggest that liberal Renew group, which currently holds 101 seats and is expected to decline to 89. Based on the projected numbers, a pro-EU grand coalition between the EPP, S&D and the Liberals seems to be a likely scenario. Just after summer, tensions between the EU centre-right and centre-left escalated following public disagreements on several policy files, such as a vote on the EU Nature Restoration Law and the Air Pollution Directive. The two parties exchanged harsh accusations regarding their stance toward EU-driven green policies in general and that the EPP eyed a coalition with far-right forces. Since late September, things seem to have calmed down - EPP boss Bakolas ruled out any collaboration between the EPP and the ECR or ID. “I think the EPP, the Socialists, ALDE [liberals], and the Greens are political elements within the EU that have guaranteed our Union is moving forward in the right direction,' Bakolas said. The Greens are collapsing electorally, set to decline from 72 to 52 seats. European far-right political forces have reached a record high: if EU elections were to be held today, anti-EU far-right political parties, which have united under the umbrella of the “Identity and Democracy” (ID) group in the EU Parliament, would win 87 out of 705 seats ( they currently hold 60 seats). According to the survey, ID’s significant electoral boost is expected to take over the conservative European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) and become the fourth largest power in the EU House. The most recent gains for the ID group were partially driven by the victory of Wilders’ PVV in the Dutch elections last week, according to Europe Elects. ID consists of parties such as Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN), which leads polls in France; Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which ranks second in the German election, as well as Salvini’s Lega, which already is a coalition partner in Italy. A similar situation exists for Austria’s FPÖ, which steadily tops the polls in Vienna. Following the Dutch elections, Le Pen spoke out at EU institutions, saying they need a complete overhaul, clarifying that Europe should not fall apart and France should keep the Euro currency. “In total, about 23% of the seats would go to the two groups of the radical right in the EU Parliament, as per the current projection", Europe Elects commented. This does not include right parties that are not affiliated with the two groups, like the Hungarian Fidesz, which sits with the ideologically diverse Non-Inscrits (NI) in the EU Parliament. According to Europe Elects, far-right political forces in Europe have gradually changed their rhetoric, and instead of pushing for an exit from the EU, they now prioritise the need to change the EU in their public speeches. This element could help them break the tradition and mobilise voters ahead of the elections. (Source: euractiv)
2023. nov. 30. 'Pfizergate' affair lead EU lawmaker Rivasi, the Green MEP who pushed for the SMS exchanges between the European Commission President and Pfizer CEO to be made public, died on 29 November at the age of 70 of a heart attack while on her way to the European Parliament in Brussels. (Source: euractiv)
Europol
30 Nov 2023 Between 13 and 18 November 2023, law enforcement authorities across Europe joined forces to target firearms trafficking, drug trafficking, migrant smuggling and trafficking in human beings, and high-risk criminal networks during coordinated EMPACT Joint Action Days South East Europe. The intelligence-led approach saw police, customs, immigration agencies and border control agencies join forces. Spain coordinated the operational activities, while Europol coordinated the exchange of operational information between the parties involved. Police, gendarmerie, border guards, customs authorities and national units involved in combating organised crime across Europe cooperated, intensified checks at the EU’s external borders and special operations in the countries involved in these days. The operation was coordinated from an international coordination centre set up in Skopje, North Macedonia, where officers representing these authorities were present to facilitate international cooperation and respond to operational needs on the ground. The intelligence-led approach and cross-border operational coordination involved joint efforts by 22 488 officers from the participating authorities. Europol coordinated the exchange of operational information and supported the operational coordination. Europol also deployed experts on the ground to provide real-time analytical support to field operatives. The Netherlands deployed two teams with special scanning equipment to border crossing points in Greece and Montenegro. Frontex deployed experts and equipment to the external borders. Officers checked '288 774 entities' - 215 273 persons, 67 277 vehicles and 5 225 postal packages/parcels were checked - leading to the detection of 2 229 illegal entries. 2 229 illegal entries were detected and 566 arrests (218 related to migrant smuggling, 186 related to drug trafficking, 69 related to firearms trafficking, 89 related to other crimes). 114 forged documents were identified. Seizures included 310 weapons (84 automatic weapons, 65 pistols, 59 rifles, 22 grenade launchers, 16 revolvers, 7 carbine, 6 shotguns, 4 converted weapons, 2 air guns, other, 42 other); 20 206 pieces of ammunition; almost a tonne of drugs including 626 kg of cocaine, almost 300 kg cannabis, heroin and marijuana plants. The information exchange led to the opening of 121 new cases against criminal networks. Cyber patrolling was set up during the operational phase, between 13 and 18 November 2023. It focused on monitoring and investigative activities on different websites, forums and marketplaces on the clear and dark web as well as on messaging applications and social media networks. The operational activities were aimed at detecting the illicit trafficking of firearms and collecting further information on the identified targets. The online investigations also focused on re-enactment activities that could assist the operational actions on the ground. These investigations were conducted in native languages by officers from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The officers carried out these activities in a synchronised manner. Investigators identified 120 targets (accounts and/or individuals) related to the trafficking of firearms, 94 of which were on a messaging application, 11 on marketplaces and 10 on other clear websites and 5 on the dark web. Overall participants in all joint action days: 26 countries across Europe, supported by Europol, Eurojust, Frontex, INTERPOL and a number of international structures. EU Member States: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden; Non-EU countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Türkiye, Ukraine and United Kingdom. EU agencies: Europol, Eurojust and Frontex. International and institutional partners: EUBAM, IPA/2019 (EU co-funded projects: “EU Support to Strengthen the Fight against Migrant Smuggling and Trafficking in Human Beings in the Western Balkans” and “Countering serious crime in the Western Balkans), INTERPOL, PCC SEE (Police Cooperation Convention for Southeast Europe Secretariat), SEESAC (South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons), SELEC (Southeast European Law Enforcement Center), UNDP and UNODC. (Source: europol)
European Union
30.11.2023 Day of Remembrance for all Victims of Chemical Warfare. The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) is the world’s most successful disarmament treaty that has eradicated an entire category of weapons of mass destruction. "In July this year, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) verified the destruction of the world’s last declared chemical weapons stock". Despite the progress made, the re-emergence of chemical weapons remains one of the most serious threats to international peace and security. The use of chemical weapons is a violation of international law, which can amount to the most serious of international crimes - war crimes and crimes against humanity. The European Union supports national and international efforts towards full accountability for those responsible, regardless of their position. The EU continues its active participation in the Partnership Against Impunity for the Use of Chemical Weapons. No one should use chemical weapons, anywhere, at any time or under any circumstances. Every year, on 30 November, the European Union commemorates those who have died and suffered as a result of the use of chemical weapons, and pledges to continue to fight against impunity. In Syria, the EU has imposed restrictive measures on an entity and persons responsible for development and use of chemical weapons, in particular for the attacks that took place in August 2013 in Ghouta - in which the Syrian regime killed more than 1,400 people - March 2017 in Ltamenah and 2018 in Douma. They have caused thousands of victims, including children. The EU has imposed restrictive measures on persons and entities in Russia linked to the Salisbury attack in 2018 and the poisoning of Mr Navalny in 2020. Chemical weapons have also been used in Russia, the United Kingdom, Malaysia and Iraq. (Source: eeas)
Kosovo
November 30, 2023 Kosovo's police engaged in clashes with veterans of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) who were protesting outside a hotel in Pristina where the president of the Kosovo Specialist Chambers, Trendafilova, was lodged. Members of Kosovo’s leftist Social Democratic Party (PSD) attempted to access Sirius hotel in Pristina where Trendafilova was meeting with NGO representatives. The Kosovo Specialist Chambers & Specialist Prosecutor’s Office was set up in 2015 in The Hague to probe and prosecute war crimes committed by former KLA members who fought for independence from Serbia, during the conflict in 1998-99. The institution is working under Kosovo's jurisdiction. The protest saw KLA veterans expressing their opposition to the war crime court. Protesters voiced concerns about the lack of transparency within the court, highlighting its closed trial sessions and the absence of information regarding the sources of evidence. Key figures such as Kosovo's former president Thaci, ex-parliament speaker Veseli, and former MP Selimi, who were all leaders of the KLA, are presently facing trial in The Hague. Activating smoke bombs and launching pyrotechnic devices, the veterans clashed with the police, resulting in the use of tear gas by the police. The clash also led to the detention of several activists from the PSD, heightening the tensions on the streets of Pristina. As the situation escalated, journalists covering the protest were caught in the crossfire. The Kosovo police's use of tear gas created breathing problems for some reporters on the scene. The Association of Journalists of Kosovo expressed deep concern over the police actions, condemning the use of force against journalists and calling for respect for their professional duties. (Source: intellinews)
Moldova
30 November 2023 Moldova held local elections on 5 November, with the liberal PAS securing the majority of mayoralties (32.51%). A few days before the elections, however, Moldova's Commission for Emergency Situations barred the candidates of the "Chance" party from running, accusing the party of being financed with Russian money by fugitive MP Șor. The investigative newspaper Ziarul de Gardă – which recently accused Chicu, leader of the centrist PDCM, of sexist and hate speech after he called the paper's reporters "mediatic escorts' belonging to a 'mediatic brothel' – conducted impromptu interviews with voters from Orhei, a town that has traditionally voted for the Chance party. Ziarul de Gardă wanted to find out who would get the support of the people by removing their favourite from the race. However, the people of Orhei confessed that they had been manipulated. “It was a gathering, they gave us small papers. We have agents who inform us,' an elderly lady said. The winning candidate in Orhei was Cociu, who was supported by the leader of the "Chance" party, Lungu. (Source: voxeurop)
Russia
30 November (2023) In a report, "The Russian Understanding of Soldier Morale: Essentials of Key Ideas from the 1990s to 2022", Gustafsson Kurki, senior researcher in FOI’s Defence Analysis Division looks into how Russian military analysts themselves reason about, and use, the concept of soldier morale. He created a model to explain the Russian view, analysing multiple Russian texts on the topic. Their concept of soldier morale revolves heavily around religious spirituality, which is used to legitimise the armed forces and Putin’s power. Associating morale with the Orthodox Church is desired. The model consists of three parts: Russian spirituality, emotionality-based communality and coercion. In the military-analytical texts, the Russian view of spirituality is strongly linked to religiosity and churchliness. Russian spirituality corresponds to the concept of duchovnost, which is a far more important quality in Russian soldiers than the possession of high-tech weapons, according to some Russian military analysts. When they write about duchovnost, they are more often referring to a Christian belief in God, Gustafsson Kurki says. “The texts refer to religion as the highest value that motivates soldiers to fight, and that spirituality and soldier morale are two sides of the same coin". “They are trying to legitimise the armed forces and Putin’s power by associating the Orthodox Church with themselves. Almost every Russian thinks duchovnost is important. By connecting it to the armed forces, it becomes more difficult for any critics to speak out. The second part of the model deals with emotionality-based communality. In military-analytical texts, soldier morale is not considered an individual matter, but as something possessed by a military collective – that is, companies, battalions, or the entire army. The collective is emphasised over the individual. This is also expressed in how coercive power and the military order are seen, which is as a sacred instruction that must be fulfilled at all costs. Soldiers who receive orders must show a willingness to sacrifice and blindly obey the order, while officers are described as emanating willpower and initiative in a completely different way,” says Gustafsson Kurki. Third, and the aspect of Russian thinking about soldier morale that most overlaps with Western thinking is coercive power. All military organisations are based on the state’s monopoly on violence and, by extension, its coercive power. Individuals may be ordered to do things that sometimes involve killing, or that result in their own deaths. “Basically, it is the same phenomenon that exists in all defence and armed forces. What distinguishes the Russian view of soldier morale from the Western one is the explicit role of spirituality, belief in God and religion.” The texts studied by Pär Gustafsson Kurki are philosophically oriented and half of the texts come from the Ministry of Defence’s own scientific journal. “The writers often have military ranks, so what is expressed comes from the military establishment, from people loyal to the regime.” Gustafsson Kurki conducted a short empirical study for the report to see if the alleged significance of duchovnost had practical implications. The Russian Armed Forces has invested in chaplains to some degree, but their number is modest in relation to the need, according him. “They still make a big deal out of the investments and bang the drum in the media, so it has more of an ideological point than a clear role in military efficiency. One sign of this is that Russia has previously managed to fight wars and achieve political goals without an elaborate system of chaplains, for example in the Second Chechen War.” In practice, factors such as discipline, functioning logistics and access to supplies and ammunition have been more important for Russia’s military success than the alleged importance of spirituality, Gustafsson Kurki says. He believes that by emphasising duchovnost, there is a risk that the Russians will be deluded about their own capabilities. 'They risk falling for their own propaganda. A contributing factor in their continued fight in Ukraine may be that they believe they have a spiritual quality that makes them destined to win, despite already shooting off much of their best materiel in the war.” 'If you wanted to reform how morale is viewed, you would also need to reform the rest of society. This is quite unlikely to happen, since the current regime is so invested in maintaining power. This model will probably be relevant for a long time to come.” (Source: foi *)
* the Swedish Defence Research Agency
Serbia
30 November 2023 A round of elections is fast approaching in Serbia this December. The upcoming vote is both local and parliamentary. The elections will also gauge Serbia's opinion of the current leadership led by President Vučić. After CRTA opinion polls institute claimed that for the first time more citizens gave Vucić a negative rating than a positive one, the Danas newspaper spoke to political analyst Mladenović. He explained that Vučić's electoral support is likely to decline due to a normal phenomenon that occurs after times of crisis. 'Speaking to the same newspaper, actress Bojković, who joined the ProGlas petition (signed by over 140,000 citizens) to encourage people to vote, fears that Serbia could face civil war if people don't vote in large numbers'. (Source: voxeurop)
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