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France
February 19, 2025 French President Macron painted a veneer of European unity by inviting a small number of handpicked European leaders to the Élysée Palace, while the Trump administration sidelined the continent by moving ahead with direct negotiations today with Russia on the war in Ukraine. Cracks in European consensus were hard to ignore. From Macron’s push for European-led defense to Keir Starmer’s “third way” diplomacy, Giorgia Meloni’s balancing act between Brussels and Washington, and Olaf Scholz’s resistance to breaking with NATO, Europe remains divided on its next move. At the same time, the debate over military spending is intensifying, as NATO officials stress the alliance’s 2% GDP target is now a baseline rather than a cap. By hosting the Monday summit in Parisian palace, Macron reinforced his bid to become the dominant voice on Ukraine and European security, with Germany’s Scholz politically weakened, the UK outside the EU and with Italy leaning toward Trump. Macron has emerged as the bloc’s most vocal advocate for strategic autonomy. With a presidential mandate until 2027 and France’s nuclear arsenal making it European Union’s only atomic power, Macron has positioned himself as the only leader with both the ambition and authority to act. His proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, even in a limited training and logistics role, fits into his broader push for a continent less dependent on Washington. But Germany is resisting, key frontline EU nations were left out of the summit, and Trump’s unpredictability clouds Europe’s security outlook. Since his first term, Macron has always presented himself as the natural leader of liberals against ’nationalist populists’. One cannot say that this has worked well.” Macron is setting the stage. Is Europe ready to follow? If Macron is stepping forward, Scholz is pushing back. The German Chancellor rejected Macron’s proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, calling it “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” given the ongoing war. He was “a little irritated” that peacekeeping forces were even being discussed “at the wrong time.” He insisted NATO - not an independent European force - must remain the foundation of security. Notably absent from the Paris talks was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a close Trump ally and frequent critic of EU policies. Some observers saw it as a pointed message from Paris and its European allies about the limits of engagement with leaders seen as too closely aligned with Trump’s worldview. Giorgia Meloni, the only leader of a major European economy to attend Trump’s inauguration in January, arrived late to the Paris summit and left without making a public statement. Meloni questioned why the summit was held in Paris rather than Brussels, the EU’s natural decision-making hub. She criticized the exclusion of frontline states such as the Baltic nations, Sweden, and Finland. Meloni pushed back against deploying European troops to Ukraine, calling it “the most complex and least effective option” - especially without firm security guarantees for Kyiv. She still engaged in the talks, bringing Italy’s concerns over long-term European military commitments to the table. Keir Starmer is positioning himself as Europe’s key link to Washington - while maintaining a firm pro-Ukraine stance. The British prime minister is set to travel to Washington next week. While Trump moves toward de-escalation in Ukraine, Starmer is doubling down on support for Kyiv. Stating the UK is ready and willing to send British troops if necessary, this stance stands in contrast to Macron and Scholz’s more cautious approach. The UK is practically the only major ally that Trump hasn’t antagonized since his inauguration. Some analysts suggest Starmer is positioning himself as Trump’s European “whisperer.” (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat, heardquartered in London, United Kingdom, supported by the Saudi government)
19/02/2025 Benhamou, director of OPEWI, Europe's War Institute, says that Trump is aiming to open the Russian market to American companies, rather than support Ukraine and its allies. /Video/ (Source: France 24)
(Wednesday), February 19 2025 In Paris, France's President Macron was to host another meeting on Ukraine today. In comments yesterday to the French media after the U.S.-Russia talks, he suggested Trump could restart useful dialogue with Putin. In Brussels, EU diplomats said member states had today agreed a new round of sanctions against Russia, which will be formally adopted by EU foreign ministers on Monday, the third anniversary of Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. (Hürriyet Daily News, - Headquarters Istambul, Turkey)
European Commission
19 February 2025 Eropean Union agrees new Russia sanctions targeting metals and 73 ’shadow-fleet’ vessels. The package unveiled today largely sticks to the European Commission’s proposal. The newly sanctioned ships will be added to the already listed 79 others, mainly tankers, used by Russia to sell oil outside the price cap or ships that help in Moscow’s war effort such as transporting ammunition from North Korea. In addition to the tankers, the envoys agreed to prohibit transactions with ports and airports in Russia used to circumvent the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil. The package also expands the criteria the EU will be able to use to sanction owners and operators of the shadow fleet, including captains, as well as those providing support to the military. It also added 48 individuals and 35 entities to its sanctions list that included asset freezes and a travel ban. Sales of video game consoles, joysticks and flight simulators would also be restricted as they could be used by Russia’s military to control drones, an EU diplomat said today. Other bans included exports of chromium and certain chemicals as well as a service ban for oil and gas refineries. (Source: Brussels Signal - Brussels, Belgium / Reuters - United Kingdom)
Balcans
February 19, 2025 Geopolitically, the world has shifted on its axis since Trump’s return to power in the US. Trump’s call with Putin appeared to lay the groundwork for a prospective deal on Ukraine. Putin has already secured a diplomatic win by engaging directly with Trump. US Vice President Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) lambasted European leaders and signalled that Washington no longer aligns with ’their democratic’ values. Rather than meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, he opted for discussions with Weidel, leader of the 'far-right' Alternative for Germany (AfD). Another aspect of Washington’s new foreign policy is that the US is backing away from its role, since WW2, of being a critical part of Europe’s security and defence. Trump has previously suggested that he may not support defending Nato members who fail to meet their defence spending obligations. During his visit to Brussels, US Defence Secretary Hegseth urged European countries to take greater responsibility for their own security. Trump and his adherents are closer politically to Putin than to ’democratic EU leaders’. The shift in the US’s position has clear implications for Southeast Europe. Upended world order’ enables Russia’s return there if a new Trump-Putin axis takes shape. The US president appears unopposed to Russia holding onto its territorial gains from the invasion - which would set a precedent, including for Southeast Europe, where there remain multiple disputed borders since the breakup of Yugoslavia. ’Albania and Kosovo’ lack the cultural ties to Russia that Slavic nation Serbia maintain. In Bosnia, Republika Srpska’s president, the secessionist-minded Dodik, has long been one of Putin’s most vocal European supporters. He has now penning a tribute to the new US president on X (formerly Twitter), titled “A leader who brings peace and stability to the world.” Dodik and his SNSD party are likely to continue obstructing Bosnia’s EU accession efforts, which have been repeatedly stymied by political infighting. In recent weeks, the state-level ruling coalition has fractured, with tensions again rising between the SNSD and its partners. Bulgaria, once dubbed the “16th Soviet republic”, is now a Nato and EU member. The survival prospects of Bulgaria’s right-left-populist coalition government are uncertain. The ’far-right’, pro-Russian party Vazrazhdane is now a force in parliament and is waiting in the wings to enter government should an opportunity arise. Gerb, the dominant party in recent Bulgarian parliaments, has thus far resisted an alliance with Vazrazhdane. Its history of political opportunism suggests that stance could shift. Croatia’s newly re-elected president, Milanovic, whose pro-Russian stance ’is firm enough to get him labelled an enemy of Ukraine’, is backed by the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP). The ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has strong anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine stances. In Kosovo’s recent general election, negative remarks about Prime Minister Albin Kurti by US special envoy Grenell just before the vote may have contributed to the loss of support for Kurti’s leftwing Vetevendosje party, which came in first place but lost its parliamentary majority. Negotiations to form a new government remain ongoing. Montenegro once known as Moscow on sea is an EU candidate country, and joined Nato. North Macedonia’s Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, despite sharing ideological leanings with rightwing politicians like Orbán, used his speech at the Munich Security Conference to criticise the EU for failing to open accession talks. He derided the bloc’s merit-based approach to enlargement as a “fairy tale”, though his frustration appeared rooted in the slow progress of Skopje’s membership bid. Romania’s links with Russia were weaker. Support for the far right is growing in Romania. With the rescheduled presidential election approaching in May, Georgescu tops the polls. He openly admires the Nazi-allied Iron Guard, which was in power in the interwar years. Figures like Georgescu and MEP Sosoaca openly espouse pro-Russian views. Russia's remaining strongholds in the region were largely confined to Serbia where President Vucic carefully balances relations with Russia, China, the EU and the US. President Vucic says EU accession is the country’s foreign policy priority and Republika Srpska, the Serb entity within Bosnia & Herzegovina. Serbia’s Foreign Minister Duric spoke of Serbia’s commitment to its European path during his visit to Moscow this week while insisting that Belgrade would not neglect its “traditional friendships”, Russia. The visit coincided with the 17th anniversary of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence - a move backed by Western powers but never recognised by Serbia or Russia. Duric referenced “tectonic changes in the international community” that he suggested could create new opportunities to revisit the Kosovo issue. In Slovenia, the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) has strong anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine stances. Of the 11 countries in Southeast Europe, all but four are Nato members. Four states are EU members, and all the rest are candidates or aspiring candidates. Beyond the EU, the six aspiring members of the bloc in the Western Balkans have long been a geopolitical battleground. Moscow’s grip has weakened in recent years with Russia competing with Western powers for influence, as successive countries have secured EU candidate status and joined Nato. The new Washington administration’s reaching out to ’far-right’ and ’pro-Russian’ politicians in Europe has already emboldened its new allies in Southeast Europe, both within and outside the EU. This paves the way for the return of Russia to a region from which it has long been in retreat. (Source: bne IntelliNews – Berlin, Germany)
Baltics
19/02/2025 Russia and the US debate the future of the conflict in Ukraine. The Nordic-Baltic 8 (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden) have been some of Ukraine’s ’staunchest supporters’ since the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022. Biden travelled to Kyiv during the war and now Trump is ready to travel to Moscow - it’s quite a turn-around. Countries on the Baltic Sea are ramping up ’preparations for a military conflict amid fears that Russia is preparing for a future war with NATO’. The Baltic Sea, where eight EU and NATO countries share a maritime border with Russia, has already become a tension point, as several undersea telecom and power cables have been severed in recent months. Rumours swirled that the US under new President Trump „planned to pull its NATO troops from the Baltic States”. This week, these countries released a flurry of intelligence reports warning of Russian President Putin’s plans to expand military conflict further into Europe. „A weakening of the trans-Atlantic alliance now feels inevitable” - Danish intelligence have forecast that Russia would be ready to wage a ’large-scale war’ in Europe within five years, ’if it perceived NATO as weak’. Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned that Russia is expanding its armed forces in a way that ’prepares for a potential future war with NATO’. „Since the conflict escalated in 2022, Russia has paused planned military developments along its northern borders with NATO countries, such as more than doubling the 30,000 troops it has stationed along its border with Finland”. A Latvian intelligence report released this week assessed the threat of Russia engaging in a direct conflict with a NATO country in the next 12 months as “low” – as long as it’s military is still fighting in Ukraine. The concern is, especially if the war in Ukraine stops, Russia will focus very much on rebuilding its military organisation. According to Latvian intelligence, in this scenario Russia would be able to restore its military force enough to pose a significant threat to NATO ’within five years’. Russia is conducting espionage in the Baltic Sea, both in the technical space and also the virtual space, and it is conducting information operations in Latvia, Andžāns, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga, Latvia says. Russia wants to achieve the objectives which it has been pursuing systematically since the early 2000s expanding Russia’s sphere of influence and undermining the US as a dominant international force, especially in Europe, Zysk adds. ’They are very expansive ambitions, and they indicate that Russia is preparing for a large-scale confrontation,’he said. Hybrid war tactics aiming to destabilise societies and spread discord add to a sense that a form of conflict with Russia has already begun. Latvia’s installation of defence infrastructure is including anti-tank obstacles along its borders with Russia and Belarus, and similar measures were in Finland and Estonia – all EU and NATO members that share land borders with Russia. Experts, and politicians including Latvia’s president, have accused Russia of using non-military tactics to wage a "hybrid war. In the Latvian capital of Riga, a Molotov cocktail was thrown inside the Latvian Occupation Museum, which documents the Nationalist and Soviet occupations. Looking to the future, ’Russia is certainly going to use political, economic and informational means to influence politics, polarize debates and create chaos’, Zysk adds. ’And I don't see any reason why Russia would not use military means, under certain circumstances. It has proven time and time again that it is willing to do that.’ In Lithuania, the government has reintroduced military conscription, ’doubled the size of its armed forces and ramped up defence spending to 3.45% of GDP’. In a bid to prevent Russia weaponising the electricity grid against them, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania last week connected to the European power grid, severing Soviet-era links with Russia's network. (Source: France 24)
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