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Poland
Sun October 1, 2023 Polish opposition hold Warsaw rally ahead of October 15 vote. The upcoming election pits two parties with very different policy prescriptions for Poland’s future: the more nationalist, inward-looking, anti-immigration vision of the PiS versus the liberal, pro-Europe PO political movement. Organizers said that 1 million people attended the “March of a Million Hearts.' The event began at 12 p.m. with speeches from several leaders. Attendees began a 4-kilometer march an hour later. Polish press agency PAP quoted local police saying about 100,000 people participated. The conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party has ruled Poland since 2015. Tusk, the former European Council president now is leading the PO. Poland’s conservative government has found itself repeatedly at odds with the EU in recent years. The country’s anti-abortion laws are the strictest in Europe. The PiS was hoping to woo conservative voters by promoting a Catholic image. Two years ago Poland’s high court was defying the primacy of EU law - it deemed EU rules were subordinate to Polish law. Now Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski said that he hoped that today’s event was the beginning of a march 'toward a completely different Poland.' (Source: cnn)
Slovakia
October 1, 2023 Slovakia, an eastern European nation of about 5.5 million people, was going to the polls to choose its fifth prime minister in four years after seeing a series of shaky coalition governments. The final opinion polls published last week showed SMER and PS neck and neck. SMER party headed by a pro-Kremlin figure came out top after securing more votes than expected, what could pose a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine. Fico doubled down on his rhetoric, said he “will do everything” in his power to kickstart Russia-Ukraine peace talks. “More killing is not going to help anyone,” Fico said. Negotiations are unlikely to be welcomed in Ukraine, as for now they would likely involve proposals in which territory is ceded to Russia, which is a non-starter for Kyiv. PS's Šimečka said his party will do 'everything it could' to prevent Fico from governing. 'We think it will be really bad news for the country, for our democracy, for our rule of law, and for our international standing and for our finances and for our economy if Mr Fico forms the government' Šimečka said. The moderate-left Hlas party, led by a former SMER member and formed as an offshoot of SMER following internal disputes, came third with 14.7% of the vote, and could play kingmaker. With seven political parties reaching the 5% threshold needed to enter the parliament, coalition negotiations will almost certainly include multiple players and could be long and messy. Fico needs at least two other parties to gain a majority in the parliament. A coalition with Hlas and the far-right nationalist SNS appears most likely. Fico has pledged an immediate end to Slovak military support for Ukraine and promised to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions in what would upend Slovakia’s staunch backing for Ukraine. Pellegrini, the leader of Hlas, said his party was “very pleased with the result,” adding that the party will “make the right decision” to become part of a government that will lead Slovakia out of the “decay and crisis that (the country’s previous leaders) got us into.” In the election campaign Pellegrini has suggested Slovakia “had nothing left to donate” to Kyiv, but also said that the country should continue to manufacture ammunition that is shipped to Ukraine. A SMER-led government could have serious consequences for the region. Slovakia was among the handful of European countries pushing for tough EU sanctions against Russia and has donated a large amount of military equipment to Ukraine. Fico has blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russia’s President Putin into launching the invasion, repeating the narrative Putin has used to justify his invasion. While in opposition, Fico became a close ally of Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orbán, especially when it came to criticism of the EU. There is speculation that, if he returns to power, Fico and Orbán could gang up together and create obstacles for Brussels. If Poland’s governing Law and Justice party manages to win a third term in Polish parliamentary elections next month, 'this bloc of EU troublemakers could become even stronger'. Polls suggest Fico’s pro-Russia sentiments are shared by many Slovaks. According to a survey by GlobSec, a Bratislava-based security think tank, 40% of Slovaks believed Russia was responsible for the war in Ukraine, the lowest proportion among the eight central and eastern European and Baltic states GlobSec focused on. In the Czech Republic, which used to form one country with Slovakia, 71% of people blame Russia for the war. The same research found that 50% of Slovaks perceive the United States – the country’s long-term ally – as a security threat. (Source: cnn)
01-Oct-2023 Slovakia held parliamentary elections yesterrday – and the winner raises questions over whether the central European country will continue to support Ukraine. The results show that a new government can only be formed by a coalition, which was expected. But the big question now would be, who is going to make the sweetest coalition offer to other parties? Fico came to his party headquarters almost as soon as voting stations closed at 22:45 local time. He refused to make any comments or statements. In the PS camp, their only hope is that the main point of their campaign would be followed by the new coalition government. 'I'm hopeful that, again, regardless of how the election plays out, Slovakia will continue to support Ukraine as it has until today,' PS leader Simecka said. Slovakia is one of the biggest suppliers of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, its easterly neighbor with whom it shares a 100km border. But judging by what the third main party leader Peter Pellegrini said earlier, yesterday morning, it seems that PS hopes about continued support might not materialize. "Slovakia has depleted all options for any military help for Ukraine, so this, of course, is not a topic for Slovakia anymore," said Pellegrini. "Of course, humanitarian aid is available when needed. "What I would focus on and would like to do is agree a deal with Brussels to allocate some of the future help intended for Ukraine to come to Slovakia, to help flourish eastern Slovakia," he added. Some of the voters at a Bratislava voting station expressed their dissatisfaction with the country's Ukraine policies and admitted that some deep divisions exist in the country. "It is full of Ukrainians here," said one female voter. "This is what I seriously do not like. They get benefits. Energy costs went up, everything went up. So basically, they are getting benefits, and we, the citizens, are paying." Another Bratislava resident, Vladimir said: "There are a lot of problems because society is divided into two groups - one is pro-western, and the other is rather pro-eastern. Here in Bratislava, the majority of citizens are unambiguously pro-Western." Bratislava was one of only two regions in the country where pro-EU Progressive Slovakia has won. The issue of supporting Ukraine has dominated these elections, yet the end result of political wheeling and dealing as efforts get underway to form a coalition, remains to be seen. So, which concessions would determine whether Slovakia would continue its military support for Ukraine or if it would turn its back on Brussels's demands and join the ranks of Viktor Orbán's Hungary? Will Slovakia's new coalition government continue to support Ukraine? (Source: cgtn)
Oct. 1 (2023) The pro-Russia Smer-SSD party won the largest share of seats in Slovakia's parliament during weekend voting, vowing to cut off the country's support for Ukraine. Smer-SSD, led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, led all other parties with 22.9% of the vote. The Hlas-SD party, led by 'Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini', finished in third place with about 14% while the Slovak National Party won 5.7% of the vote. Those three parties together will hold 81 seats in the 150-seat parliament, good for a six-seat majority should they agree to form a ruling coalition. The pro-European Progesivne slovensko, or PS, led by Simecka, finished in second place with 18% of the vote. Fico was congratulated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in a post on X,: "Guess who's back! Congratulations to Robert Fico on his undisputable victory at the Slovak parliamentary elections," Orbán wrote. "Always good to work together with a patriot. Looking forward to it!" (Source: upi)
01/10/2023 The career of a pro-Russian politician who was ousted from power five years ago after a journalist was murdered for revealing government corruption. Bodybuilding and misogyny: a fan of Putin, fast cars and football - Robert Fico, 59, leader of the centre-left Smer-D party should return to his former post as prime minister of Slovakia if he can find enough allies to form a government following early parliamentary elections yesterday. Fico’s centre-left party, Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD), won 22.9% of the vote, beating the centrist Progressive Slovakia party (17.9%). Fico, who has spent his life navigating the political chessboard, began his career with the Communist Party when he was a lawyer. He first forged a reputation on the European stage as his country’s representative to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg from 1994 to 2000. In 1999, he left the Party of the Democratic Left, the political heir to the Communist Party, to found his own, the Smer-SD. In 2006, this party won a landslide victory in parliament, catapulting Fico to the position of prime minister two years after Slovakia joined the EU. Fico then formed a coalition with the far-right Slovak National Party, which shared his anti-refugee rhetoric and populist leanings, and boosted his popularity during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis by refusing to impose austerity measures. Fico was twice elected as prime minister of this Eastern European country of 5.4 million inhabitants. During the 2015 migration crisis in Europe, he took a stand against migrants, refusing to "create a separate Muslim community in Slovakia" and criticising the European quota programme for distributing refugees. He was forced to resign in 2018 following the murder of investigative journalist Kuciak and his fiancée. The murdered journalist revealed ties between the Italian mafia and the Smer-SD in an article published posthumously. Kuciak's investigation focused on Troskova, a former model who became Fico's assistant. It uncovered links between an Italian businessman, the Calabrian mafia and Troskova, threatening thus Fico’s inner circle. The billionaire businessman Kocner was charged in 2019 with ordering the murder, before being acquitted the following year. Other suspects were convicted after they pleaded guilty, including the shooter, a former soldier who was given a 23-year prison sentence. At the time of the murder, Fico was already known for having a difficult relationship with the press: On more than one occasion, he publicly described Slovak journalists, who regularly accused the government of corruption, as "idiotic hyenas" and "dirty anti-Slovak prostitutes". Even though an anti-corruption coalition took power in 2020, Fico managed to keep his seat in parliament following his resignation. A survey carried out in 2022 by the Globsec think-tank showed that 54% of Slovaks are vulnerable to the theory that the world is governed by secret groups that want to establish a totalitarian ‘New World Order’. Having previously hailed Slovakia's adoption of the euro as a "historic decision', Fico is now openly attacking the EU, NATO and war-torn Ukraine 'in the hopes of appealing to far-left and far-right voters'. In the streets of the capital Bratislava, the posters of Fico's party promise "stability, order and well-being", of which he claims to be the guarantor. In the new world that Fico promises, migrants and LGBT+ people – the targets of his most virulent attacks – are no longer welcome. "I will certainly never be a supporter of them [LGBT+ people] being able to marry, as we see in other countries," he told a press conference recently, after saying adoption by same-sex couples, which is not possible in Slovakia, was a "perversion". He is married to a lawyer with whom he has a son. The couple are separated. The politician is open about his admiration for Putin's authoritarian rule, writes Slovak sociologist Vasecka in his book 'Fico: Obsessed with Power'. Fico recently announced that he would not authorise the arrest of Putin, who is the subject of an international warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, if he ever came to Slovakia. He also promised on the campaign trail to put an end to Slovakia's military aid to Ukraine. Fico now prefers to avoid all interaction with the press. While campaigning, he addressed his electorate mainly through videos posted on Facebook, YouTube and Telegram – videos that are among the most popular in Slovakia. True to form, he does this in a provocative and misogynistic manner, having made Slovak President Caputova his scapegoat for several years. The anti-corruption lawyer became the country’s president in 2019. 'The daily newspaper Le Monde described in an article one of Fico’s encounters with Caputova in vivid detail. During Labour Day celebrations in May 2022, he called Caputova an "American whore". And "the more of a whore a person is, the more famous they become", he said'. (Source: france24 'with AFP")
European Commission
October 1, 2023 After the U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late yesterday that omitted aid to Ukraine, the 'proposition on the table' showed the EU wanted to increase military aid to Ukraine, European Union foreign policy chief Borrell said today after his first in-person meeting with Ukrainian Defence Minister Umerov, who was appointed last month. On X, Borrell said the bloc was preparing 'long-term security commitments for Ukraine'. He told he hoped member states would reach a decision on increasing aid 'before the end of the year'. Umerov said their discussions of EU military aid covered 'artillery & ammunition, air defense, EW (electronic warfare) & long-term assistance programs, trainings, and defence industry localization' in Ukraine. The European Defence Agency said that seven EU countries had ordered ammunition under a procurement scheme to get urgently needed artillery shells to Ukraine and replenish depleted Western stocks. (Source: Reuters)
Nagorno Karabakh
October 1, 2023 Azerbaijan’s prosecutor general Aliyev issued an arrest warrant for ex-Nagorno-Karabakh leader Arayik Harutyunyan today who led the breakaway region largely populated by ethnic Armenians, between May 2020 and the beginning of September. Less than a month later, the separatist government said it would dissolve itself by the end of 2023 after a three-decade bid for independence. Azerbaijani police arrested one of Harutyunyan’s former prime ministers, Ruben Vardanyan. Arayik Harutyunyan and the enclave’s former military commander, Jalal Harutyunyan, are accused of firing missiles on Azerbaijan’s third-largest city, Ganja, during a 44-day war in late 2020d. The clash between the Azerbaijani military clash and Nagorno Karabakh forces led then to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the region. While Baku has pledged to respect the rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, these days many have fled due to fear of reprisals or losing the freedom to use their language and to practice their religion and cultural customs. Today, Armenia’s presidential press secretary, Baghdasaryan, said that 100,483 people had already arrived in Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh, which had a population of about 120,000 before Azerbaijan’s offensive. Some people lined up for days to escape the region because the only route to Armenia - a winding mountain road - became jammed with slow-moving vehicles. Armenian Health Minister Avanesyan said some people, including older adults, had died while on the road to Armenia as they were “exhausted due to malnutrition, left without even taking medicine with them, and were on the road for more than 40 hours.” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan alleged Thursday, September 28, that the exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh amounted to “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland.” Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry rejected Pashinyan’s accusations, saying the departure of Armenians was 'their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation.' A United Nations delegation arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh today to monitor the situation. The mission is the organization’s first to the region for three decades. Local officials dismissed the visit as a formality. Tadevosyan, spokesperson for Nagorno-Karabakh’s emergency services, said the U.N. representatives had come too late and the number of civilians left in the regional capital of Stepanakert could be counted on one hand. “We walked around the whole city but found no one. There is no general population left,” he said. In Athens, Greece, several hundred Armenians gathered today evening outside the Greek Parliament to protest the upcoming dissolution of Nagorno Karabakh - or Artsakh, as they called it. They then marched to the European Union offices, a few blocks away. The protest was peaceful. (Source: apnews)
Russia
10/1/23 Videos have begun to circulate on social media today showing a drone strike on a helicopter base. At approximately 7 a.m. ET, Nexta, an independent news outlet based out of Poland, took to X, to share a clip purportedly showing a drone flying over the Russian city of Sochi, a resort city on the Black Sea in southwestern Russia. Roughly an hour later, Gerashchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian minister of internal affairs, online commentator wrote and shared another clip of the Sochi incident to X. 'Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack near Sochi,' a helicopter parking lot in Adler area was hit, he wrote. A little before 9 a.m. ET, Kyiv Post correspondent Smart shared a third clip of the drone strike, this time showing the craft actually crashing and exploding. Smart also claimed that flights in the Sochi area had been canceled as a result. Ukrainska Pravda reported that the strike in Sochi had been carried out by the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence agency. Around the same time as the strike in Sochi, The Kyiv Independent reported that another drone strike had been successfully carried out in Smolensk, near Russia's border with Belarus. This strike targeted an aircraft factory, operated by Russia's Tactical Missile Armament state corporation. (Source: newsweek)
October 1, 2023 At memorials to Prigozhin, who was killed in an unexplained plane crash exactly 40 days ago, dozens of mourners hailed the mercenary chief as a patriotic hero of Russia who had spoken truth to power. At memorials in Moscow and other Russian cities dozens of Wagner fighters and ordinary Russians paid their respects, though there was no mass outpouring of grief. Russian state television was silent. In eastern Orthodoxy, it is believed that the soul makes its final journey to either heaven or hell on the 40th day after death. Putin was yesterday shown meeting one of the most senior former commanders of the Wagner mercenary group and discussing how best to use "volunteer units" in the Ukraine war. (Source: Reuters)
1 Oct 2023 The regime in Chechnya is poised to stay intact if Kadyrov is to leave the position of governor early, it is resilient enough to survive any change of leadership. Kadyrov sits atop the regime hierarchy but he alone does not represent the entirety of the regime. It is a personalised, but stable regime. After taking over the reins of power from his father, Akhmat, who was assassinated in 2004, Kadyrov has systematically sought to eliminate anyone who could pose a threat to his position. Critics and rivals have been assassinated or have had to flee abroad, where they live in fear of being targeted. Kadyrov has also secured his post by developing a personal connection with Putin. Their familial, nearly paternal relationship is closer than any other the Russian president has had with a regional leader. Kadyrov receives significant funds from the federal budget. Chechnya is one of the most subsidised regions in Russia; by its leader’s own admission, it would not survive a month without funding from Moscow. The Kremlin perceives these funds as a way to buy stability and peace in the republic, which suffered through two wars in the 1990s. There are a number of powerful men who manage various aspects of governance. Chechnya’s Speaker of Parliament Daudov and Deputy Prime Minister Vismuradov handle internal affairs, particularly in relation to repressing the public and maintaining stability. Both men have reputations for extreme violence and have been connected to cases of torture. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the pair have also overseen deployments of Chechen fighters to the battlefield. Prime Minister Muslim Khuchiev, a traditional bureaucrat, manages conventional governance operations, having occupied a variety of government positions. Delimkhanov, Kadyrov’s most trusted lieutenant and a member of the Russian Duma, controls the regime’s informal, frequently criminal, operations outside Chechnya. He has been responsible for stamping out opposition to Kadyrov among the Chechen diaspora and has been accused of organising several assassinations. He has also played a prominent public role in Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, deploying into occupied territories with Chechen forces. These powerful figures would be able to continue Kadirov's regime’s operations, likely with one of them serving as the acting regional head. Kadyrov is also grooming his eldest son, Akhmat, as his successor, although he remains roughly seven years away from meeting the legal age requirement to be a governor. The Kremlin is likely to accept Akhmat as Ramzan’s successor not just because his father desires it, but because it maintains the current structure of relations. This keeps Chechnya as a political constant, rather than an unpredictable vassal region. Stability is also guaranteed by its massive repressive apparatus, which swiftly roots out any form of opposition when it appears. For example, in September last year, after Moscow announced partial mobilisation, Chechen women went out in Grozny to demonstrate against the decision. The protesters were taken to the Grozny mayor’s office by the security services and beaten, while their male relatives were forcibly deployed to the front in Ukraine. In December, a fight between two security officials in the Chechen city of Urus-Martan was followed by a large-scale security campaign to detain residents who were entertained by the altercation, witnessed and recorded the incident on their phones. The Chechen public’s means to organise armed resistance are limited. In the 1990s, Chechens fought for independence from Russia but were defeated in the second Russo-Chechen war, with many fighters leaving the republic. Today, the bulk of Chechen opposition forces have moved to Ukraine to continue their struggle against Russia. They have no clear path to return to their homeland. Crossing overland from the Southern Caucasus appears not possible at the moment. Georgia remains unfriendly towards Chechens due to its fraught history of spillover conflict and a failed attempt to exploit fighters from the region. Azerbaijan likewise would not allow Chechen fighters to transit through its territory out of its own security considerations and reluctance to anger Moscow. The major challenge would be of a limited arms supply. Some weapons caches from the 2000s’ insurgency remain hidden in the woods, but their number and usability are questionable. The war in Ukraine could increase the availability of weapons within Russia, but that would not be sufficient on its own to supply a substantial armed resistance force. Kadyrov is also taking measures to prevent a new rebellion. He reduced the number of Chechen troops fighting in Ukraine within the first few months of the war and last summer ordered the security services to get better prepared for underground fighting. He can also rely on military backing from Moscow were there to be internal strife and his regime would keep Chechen aspirations for freedom and independence at bay. Rumours about Kadyrov’s health deteriorating have surfaced for a few years now. On September 15, Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military intelligence, told journalists that Kadyrov, the governor of the North Caucasian republic Chechnya, was in a coma. Some suggested he was in a hospital in Moscow, receiving treatment for kidney problems, others that he was suffering from the negative effects of drug addiction, and a minority even declared his death. There seem to be hopes in some quarters that in the event of Kadyrov’s debilitating illness or death, Chechnya, and by extension Russia, would be destabilised, which would help Ukraine win the war. The health condition of Chechnya’s leader does not matter much. (Source: aljazeera)
Ukraine
September 30, 2023 Earlier this year government officials effectively banished clergy loyal to the Moscow patriarch from the most sacred parts of a gold-domed monastery complex called the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. Some told they worry their church's banishment from parts of the monastery is only a beginning. "Our monks lived here from ancient times," said Metropolitan Clement. "Access is closed now to clergymen and to many believers who could come to to pray here even in Soviet times." Metropolitan Clement is spokesman for the largest Orthodox community in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate, which has been governed by the Moscow patriarch since the 1600s. He says millions of his church's believers face religious persecution. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine with the blessing of Kirill, the Moscow patriarch and head of the Russian Orthodox Church. Speaking last year, Kirill promised Russian soldiers who die in the conflict that their sacrifice washes away all sins. Kirill's embrace of the war sparked growing rage and division within Ukraine, where millions worship in Moscow-affiliated Orthodox churches. The war has placed their traditional faith, dating back generations, in conflict. Officials with the Moscow-aligned church say they have taken steps to distance themselves from Patriarch Kirill. In May 2022, clergy within Ukraine's Moscow-aligned Orthodox church circulated a resolution that would have led to a complete divorce from Russia and its influence. That resolution was never ratified. Clergy in Kyiv issued a statement last year formally condemning the invasion. They also note that many soldiers fighting against Russia are members of the Moscow-aligned church. Researchers say before the war began there were roughly 12,000 Orthodox parishes in Ukraine linked to Russia. Over the last 19 months, only about 1,500 of those congregations have voted to join a break-away Ukrainian-led church. Russia-aligned parishes remain particularly popular in eastern Ukraine. "Thousands of our believers and hundreds of sons of our priests defend Ukraine,' said Metropolitan Clement. 'Burials of defenders of Ukraine take place every day at our churches." Public anger at Orthodox clergy who remain under Patriarch Kirill's purview surged again earlier this year after Ukraine's intelligence service, known as the SBU, released a wire-tap phone recording of a top religious leader, Metropolitan Pavel, apparently praising Russia's invasion. "There are already Russian flags everywhere," Pavel can be heard saying. "And people are happy. People are happy." A separate recording released last November appeared to show Moscow-aligned Orthodox believers in Kyiv singing, "Mother Russia is awakening." Outside the monastery complex in Kyiv angry Ukrainians' counter-protests turn up on most days to confront Orthodox worshippers loyal to the Russian tradition, shouting insults through bullhorns and accusing them of disloyalty. Metropolitan Pavel is accused of secretly backing Russia's invasion. He remains under house arrest in Kyiv awaiting trial on charges of disloyalty. Meanwhile at religious services in Kyiv, many worshippers carry his photograph and describe him as a martyr of their faith. There's a growing debate in Ukraine over just how much their society should tolerate Orthodox believers loyal to the Moscow church in a time of bitter war. Religious scholars say roughly a hundred different religions are practiced freely and without interference within the country. But Ukraine's government views Orthodox clergy influenced by Russia as a threat. The SBU has been raiding Moscow-aligned churches, searching homes of some top clergy and prosecuting priests suspected of actively aiding Russia. Some religious leaders in Ukraine say it's time for the Moscow-aligned church to be banned outright. Omelian, a priest and spokesman for the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which is fully independent of Moscow, governed entirely within Ukraine, describes the Moscow-aligned church as a threat. This accusation - that Orthodox believers loyal to the Moscow patriarch are a danger to national security - frightens some believers, who insist that their faith is nonpolitical. "We're living in a country that's not free and we can't be sure of our safety," said a man who would only identify himself as Vladislov. He told he feared persecution if he provided his full name. Nikiforov, a religious scholar who worships in a Moscow-aligned church, told that government officials should arrest and prosecute anyone, including priests, found to be actively aiding Russia. But the country and its police should respect the faith of millions who want to go on worshipping as they did before the full-scale invasion. "People still will go to underground churches. They will go to [worship] in their rooms or their houses and this is very dangerous for the Ukrainian state." "It's impossible to close or to destroy the biggest religious organization in Ukraine," Nikiforov said. (Source: npr)
01.10.2023 Ukraine reported today that the Russian army launched attacks across the country during the night. An announcement from the Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia used 30 Iranian-made Shahed UAVs in the attacks. Sixteen of these UAVs were shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems, it added. The military administration of the northeastern Kharkiv region also said that the Russian army carried out an attack on the city with three S-300 missiles. A fire broke out as a result of one of the missiles hitting a facility. (Source: aa)
United Kingdom
01 October, 2023 UK Defence Minister Shapps, who was appointed to the role last month, said that after a discussion on Friday, September 29 with British military chiefs, he wanted to deploy military instructors to Ukraine in addition to training Ukrainian armed forces in Britain or other Western countries. 'Particularly in the west of the country, I think the opportunity now is to bring more things 'in country',' he added. Shapps added that he hoped British defence companies such as BAE Systems would proceed with plans to set up arms factories in Ukraine. Hours after his comments were published, PM Rishi Sunak told reporters at the start of the governing Conservative Party's annual conference in Manchester that there were no immediate plans to send British troops to Ukraine. "That's something for the long term, not the here and now. There are no British soldiers that will be sent to fight in the current conflict." Britain has provided five-week military training courses to around 20,000 Ukrainians over the past year, and intends to train a similar number going forward. To date, Britain and its allies have avoided a formal military presence in Ukraine to reduce the risk of a direct conflict with Russia. Former Russian President Medvedev today said any British soldiers training Ukrainian troops in Ukraine would be legitimate targets for Russian forces. (Source: thenewarab)
China
1st October 2023 Abandoned railways, half-built bridges & a sea of roads to nowhere - under Xi, China has admitted it has grand plans to establish itself on the world stage as a pioneering global influence by 2050. Xi unveiled the world’s most ambitious infrastructure project 10 years ago this month – wooing Asia, Africa and the Middle East with bold promises. Dubbed the “project of the century', the Belt and Road Initiative was billed as a mega plan to create trade routes through huge swathes of Eurasia, with China at the centre. They boast of an “all-weather” partnership with Pakistan, a mutual defence treaty with North Korea, and an “unbreakable” friendship with Belarus. With promises of loans and vast infrastructure projects like roads, railways and bridges, more than 150 countries have signed up. It substantially broadened China’s sphere of influence and China’s tendrils now extend far beyond the Indo-Pacific – reaching deep into the Middle East, Africa and beyond. In most parts of Sub-Saharan, China has already displaced the US and has become the primary influencer. Even in Israel, China’s influence has expanded rapidly. In the coming years, the potential flashpoints will be Iran and Ethiopia. It all forms part of Xi’s plan for China to become the most powerful global power by extending a friendly hand to a web of potential new allies. But a decade on, his vision appears to be crumbling in many parts of the world – halted by bankruptcy, corruption and mountains of debt. According to research lab AidData, one-third of projects have been plagued by furious protests, corruption scandals, labour violations, or environment problems. Many have been left unable to keep up with the return payments. Building projects end up being ditched or unfinished until the debt is settled. After a decade of construction, experts told that Xi’s flagship project has mostly crumbled – leaving many poorer countries trapped by China’s control. As debt mounts, it’s feared more of these projects will go unfinished – and greedy Chinese lenders will seize control of land and key assets in lieu of repayment. Some suggest that it is a plan to further China’s ambitions using 'predatory loans' and 'debt traps' to bring nations’ under their sphere of influence. Some countries have become too reliant on China – ending up in forms of debt dependence on China, in a debt spiral with unfinished projects. British MI6 chief Moore warned China’s use of money is means to “get people on the hook” - he said the country has also enlisted the use of 'data traps' as it attempts to build it’s global intelligence. “If you allow another country to gain access to really critical data about your society, over time that will erode your sovereignty, you no longer have control over that data,” he explained. In terms of power politics, Xi has successfully realised his objectives through the Belt and Road Initiative – positioning China at the forefront of global power politics. In some places, the money associated with it has bled away due to corruption, in others because of inefficiency, and elsewhere because of change of governments and broader political factors. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Kenya, Laos, Montenegro and Sri Lanka have found themselves crippled by debt and reliant on Beijing. In Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, enormous concrete columns are a daily reminder of a China-funded railway that was stopped after a corruption scandal. In Kenya, the Standard Gauge Railway, supposed to weave 290 miles, connecting the coastal city of Mombasa to Nairobi was halted in 2019 after China withheld funding – 'ending in a field a few hundred miles' short of its destination. The new highway connecting the city of Bar on Montenegros Adriatic coast to landlocked neighbour Serbia, (Bar-Boljare highway) is being constructed by China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), the large state-owned Chinese company. Chinese workers have spent six years carving tunnels through solid rock and raising concrete pillars above gorges and canyons, but the road in effect goes nowhere. Two sleek new roads vanish into mountain tunnels high above a sleepy Montenegrin village, the unlikely endpoint of a billion-dollar project that is threatening to derail the tiny country's economy. Almost 130 kilometres still needs to be built at a likely cost of at least one billion euros ($1.2 billion). The government has already burnt through $944 million in Chinese loans to complete the first stretch of road, just 41 kilometres, making it among the world's most expensive pieces of tarmac which has left the country crippled with debt. Where the environment is less stable – like in parts of Africa or the Middle East – then Chinese investment continues to be prone to accusations of low local benefit coming due to import of Chinese labour, poor environmental standards, and corruption. But the bottom line is that for many countries, the BRI offers an alternative to western support. When it comes to China, that if it’s a choice between an imperfect project, and no project at all, more often than not the former is the best option. (Source: thesun)
United States
October 1, 2023 President Biden has given the Pentagon the green light to supply Ukraine with an unspecified number of MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS - a series of short-range, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles that have been in service for more than three decades. The U.S. military first used them against the forces of Iraqi dictator Hussein during the First Gulf War in 1991. The U.S. has around 3,000 ATACMS and will likely send either the Block 1 or Block 1A ATACMS to Ukraine. Weighting almost 3,700 pounds, the older Block 1 version has a range of up to 103 miles and can carry a single warhead of up to 1,250 pounds. The main available Block 1 warhead is essentially a big cluster munition that can pack almost 1,000 M74 bomblets that are designed to kill and maim enemy infantry and destroy weapon systems through blast and fragmentation. 'Cluster munitions have proven extremely effective on the ground', and even the Russian military leadership is warning about the danger. An ATACMS Block 1 strike against a concentrated large Russian force could completely wipe it out and stop an offensive or counteroffensive in its tracks. In the current battlefield, Block 1 ATACMS munitions can reach almost all of Russian-occupied Ukraine. The newer Block 1A version has a similar weight but a much longer range which depends on the warhead it packs. It can either carry a cluster warhead with 300 M74 bomblets for a range of 186 miles or a unitary high explosive 350-pound warhead for a range of 168 miles. A Block 1A with a high explosive unitary warhead can take out a whole Russian command and control element or targets of similar importance in a single strike. The longer-ranged Block A1 ATACMS missiles can also reach the southern parts of the Crimean Peninsula, as well as portions of Russia. ATACMS munitions are solid-propellant fueled and have internal GPS systems to ensure pinpoint accuracy. The number of ATACMS munitions the U.S. will send to Ukraine will firstly depend on the number of deliveries. If the U.S. is tilting toward one big delivery, then the number of munitions might be smaller compared to a scenario in which the Pentagon sends several waves of ATACMS over the next months. Another consideration is the status of Ukraine’s artillery arsenal. Ukraine is going through several thousand artillery shells – particularly 155mm rounds – daily and between 150,000 and 200,000 a month. Even though the Pentagon alone has sent Kyiv more than two million 155mm shells, the U.S. and the West are having a very hard time meeting the Ukrainian artillery’s needs. Sending ATACMS munitions would slightly ease the need to send seemingly inexhaustible batches of rounds to Ukraine. The ATACMS can be fired by either the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) or the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). The Ukrainian military has used both the M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS in the war, taking out a considerable amount of Russian logistical nodes, fortified positions, troop concentrations, important infrastructure, and high-value targets. ATACMS could change the war. The Ukrainian military could use ATACMS against high-value targets that are also within range of its 155mm guns. The potential delivery of ATACMS to the Ukrainian military would enable additional deep strikes against the faltering Russian logistical system and other strategic targets. (Source: thenationalinterest)
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