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Europe
Spain
(13 November 2024) Parts of Spain are again under water, two weeks after the country's worst flooding disaster in decades. /Video/ (Source: 9News - Australia)
Crimea
11/14/24 at 9:36 a.m. ET The bridge on the Dzhankoi-Maslove route in northern Crimea collapsed on November 13, and the cause has yet to be confirmed. The railway is used to transport military shipments in the territory. The damage to the bridge will disrupt Russia's transportation of supplies in the ongoing war against Ukraine. A truck and a car were on the bridge at the time of its collapse. The bridge could not bear the truck's weight. (Source: Newsweek - United Kingdom)
Russia
Thursday 14 November 2024 16:58 GMT Ukraine says it has full control of the key city Kupiansk in the northeast of the country, after Russian troops – 'some disguised as Ukrainian soldiers' – were said to have briefly breach its outskirts. Russian attacks in Kupiansk, as well as the counterattack in Kursk and sweeping advances in the eastern Donetsk region along multiple fronts, were already of significant concern to Ukraine and its backers. But US president-elect Trump’s comprehensive victory last week has brought into sharp relief the cost of territorial losses as his advisors confirmed the incoming leader is intent on ending the war, possibly by demanding a freeze of the frontline. Waltz, Mr Trump’s nominee for the White House’s national security advisor, told Voice of America after a meeting with the president-elect: “The president clearly expressed that he wishes to bring both sides to the negotiating table. He is focused on ending the war, not its continuation.” But both Russian officials 'and Ukrainian lawmakers' appear opposed to the idea of a frozen frontline. (Source: The Idependent - United Kingdom)
Ukraine
14/11/2024 - 07:45 Around 500 corruption cases have been opened this year and 60 convictions secured, according to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. The persistent problem will hamper Ukraine's massive reconstruction agenda, deterring international partners from putting up funds. The total cost of reconstructing Ukraine stands is estimated at $486 billion, according to a joint study by the World Bank, UN, EU and Ukrainian government. Even though Ukraine has stepped up its anti-graft measures over the past decade to advance its ambition of joining the European Union, corruption scandals rife in the war-torn country, where for some officials Russia's invasion and a multi-billion-dollar reconstruction programme has provided new opportunities for personal enrichment. Last year, the country launched a platform listing all open projects. Called "DREAM", the aim is to enable investors, journalists and Ukrainians to track the progress of construction projects, said its head Nestulia. Gruyaert agreed to help rebuild destroyed apartment blocks outside Kyiv. But when the French company he works for, Neo-Eco, applied for building permits in the town of Gostomel, the local military administration asked the company to transfer the funds for the multimillion-dollar project to its bank account, under the pretence that it would run the project directly. It is the latest example of the endemic corruption that has plagued Ukraine since it became independent after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The company refused, and progress on the initiative, which had secured 20 million euros in private funding, immediately slowed. The company decided to abandon the project in September 2023, saying it was "impossible" to work under such conditions. Ukrainian investigators said they had uncovered a system of "embezzlement" in the Gostomel military administration and accused its head Borysiuk of appropriating around 21 million hryvnia ($470,000) meant for the reconstruction of houses and apartments. Neo-Eco has had to learn how to 'zigzag between the various obstacles', Gruyaert said. The company is still working on several other projects and encourages other foreign investors to get involved. (Source: France 24 / AFP - France)
November 14, 2024 Since Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, emigration depleted the population while the fertility rate fell to 1.4 births per woman. According to a report by the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, the overall population had declined to 29 million people in 2023 - compared to 48.5 million in 2001. In 2023, Ukraine including its Russian-occupied territories - saw only 187,000 live births, the lowest rate in 300 years. A report by the Financial Times from March 2024 found that of the 11.1 million Ukrainian men aged 25 to 60, 7.4 million were either already mobilized or were unavailable for reasons ranging from disability to employment in critical sectors. Another 900,000 men of military age are not registered in any government systems and thus cannot be conscripted. Of the 3.4 million military-age men in the workforce, 600,000 are considered critical workers and thus unlikely to face conscription. The remaining cohort of potential conscripts therefore numbers just 2.8 million — roughly equal to the number of those who have fled or are disabled. Ukraine faces a 1-for-1 tradeoff between conscripting men into the armed forces or leaving them in the workforce, where they can support the government by paying taxes and otherwise keeping the economy afloat. The decision to conscript more men will reverberate for generations due to its impact on the fertility rate. If Ukraine conscripts older men, it risks creating more widows and orphans who will likely depend on the state for survival. If it conscripts younger men, it risks further damaging the fertility rate and preventing more Ukrainians from being born at all. The country's demographic pyramid has inverted due to aging, low birth rates, and emigration, such that there are roughly 9.5 million employed people whose taxes provide for 23 million pensioners, children, and unemployed people. According to USAID, since 2022, the American government has provided $26.8 billion dollars in direct budgetary support to Ukraine’s government, in addition to billions more in military assistance and in-kind transfers of weapons. Without the support of the U.S. and its European allies, Ukraine would not only struggle to equip its troops, but also to maintain basic government services. Ukraine, fresh off a deal to restructure its international debt, lacks the resources to attract military recruits with competitive salaries. In April, President Zelenskyy split the difference by lowering the draft age from 27 to 25. In recent months, several other efforts to boost recruitment have failed, and their failure has intensified political divisions within Ukraine. Corruption and self-interest also play a role. A significant amount of money may have disappeared into the pockets of local power brokers. In July, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk hosted Zelenskyy in Warsaw, where the two announced an agreement including plans to recruit, train, and equip Ukrainians living in Poland to return to Ukraine to fight. Poland’s defense minister, Kosiniak-Kamysz, noted in an interview that the numbers of volunteers are simply too small. As the Ukrainian government steps up efforts to replenish its troops from a dwindling supply of eligible military-age men, every soldier recruited to the front means one less worker and potentially one less father. Tomorrow, it will need those men to return home, rebuild their lives, rebuild their families, and, ultimately, rebuild their country. (Source: Responsible Statecraft - U.S.)
by Tokarz
Asia
Afghanistan
(November 14, 2024) The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), citing data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), reported that from August 15, 2023, to September 2024, some 2.2 million Afghan migrants have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan. According to the report, of the total returnees, 734,817 Afghans came back from Pakistan alone. Overall, 32.1 million people across the country have received humanitarian aid. USAID further cited the International Organization for Migration (IOM), noting that Afghanistan was home to 6.6 million internally displaced persons last year. (Source: Amu TV - U.S.)
India
November 14, 2024 In October, China and India reached an agreement on patrolling a stretch of their long-disputed shared border in the high mountains of the Himalayas. It also allowed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi to meet in Russia and hold talks for the first time in five years. Now, many analysts see the possibility of a reset and a return to normal ties. In the last five years India’s imports from China have ballooned. India relies on China for sophisticated technology, such as personal computers, laptops, and the components used in making telecommunications equipment and mobile phones. If Indian policymakers do not break the conceptual barrier between economics and security, India will remain vulnerable to China and its ambitions for hegemony in Asia. Economic dependence will make New Delhi forever vulnerable to Beijing. China’s ambitions continue to circumscribe India’s ability to act at the regional and global levels. In 1962, China and India fought a hugely one-sided war in the Himalayas that resulted in India’s losing vast tracts of land; spats over the long, contested border are still ongoing. The two countries have never formally agreed on the exact line of their shared border, which snakes over 2,000 miles, largely through high, inhospitable terrain. In the 1990s, the neighbors signed accords that emphasized the principle of not using military force to settle the border dispute, allowing India to believe it had won peace even though no conclusive agreement about the border had been reached. But in the years that followed, China strengthened its infrastructure along the border to better support troop deployments. India was not oblivious to these moves, but it opted not to develop corresponding infrastructure on its side out of fear that a Chinese invasion could be abetted by Indian-built roads. Indian governments also hoped that conflict between the two countries was a thing of the past. Under Prime Minister Singh, who ruled from 2004 to 2014, many officials and analysts assumed that China and India could rise together, invoking the somewhat cringeworthy term “Chindia.” Potential new ties with China led the Indian establishment of that era even to downplay China’s maneuvers to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean through its “string of pearls” strategy, which seeks to extend China’s maritime presence by building commercial and military facilities overseas. Modi came to power in 2014 - and China grew more aggressive under Xi. China tried to adjust the status quo in the border region in violation of existing treaties and covenants by moving troops into sensitive areas and provoking confrontations with Indian soldiers, in the process transforming India’s security calculus. India and the United States expanded their partnership to include a greater focus on real-time intelligence sharing and building joint military capabilities in the wider Indo-Pacific. In 2022, they launched a joint initiative on critical and emerging technologies, which sought to encourage cooperation between defense industries, manufacture jet engines in India, and create semiconductor supply chains free of China, among other worthy proposals. During his formal state visit to the United States in June 2023, Modi stressed that he believed New Delhi’s partnership with Washington cemented India’s place in the international order. In practice, India has adopted a more confrontational posture toward China that seeks to discourage Chinese adventurism. Modi has asked Taiwanese President Lai to deepen economic engagement with India through the joint development of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and through a labor-mobility agreement signed in February 2024 that will allow Indian workers to help Taiwan mitigate labor shortages in some sectors. The Modi government also seems to be in sync with a Biden administration initiative to direct greater global attention toward the status of Tibet. In June 2024, India approved a U.S. congressional delegation’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, who lives in exile in India. The Modi government is willing to tread close to China’s redlines about its 'core interests' in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Tibet. Nearly a decade ago, when Xi unveiled the Belt and Road Initiative India opposed it on grounds that it would encourage China’s partners to take on unsustainable levels of debt. India also bristled at the way one plank of the initiative - the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor - moved through territory that New Delhi insists belongs to India and is illegally occupied by Pakistan. But New Delhi enthusiastically participated in the establishment of the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, serving as a founding member. India has been one of the largest beneficiaries of lending from the multilateral institution, receiving $4.4 billion, as of 2018, that has gone into projects related to electricity generation, road construction, and urban rail projects. The Indian government issued new rules in 2020 that modified how foreign direct investments could flow into India, with the not-so-secret aim of limiting Chinese investment. In its latest annual analysis of the economy, India’s Ministry of Finance called for further Chinese investment in India. It has launched a portal to expedite visas for Chinese professionals. Civil aviation ministers from both countries met in September to discuss the resumption of direct passenger flights after they were suspended in 2020. The willingness to see China as both a security threat and an economic boon is the Achilles’ heel of India’s China policy. New Delhi’s dependence on China with respect to components or heavy equipment for industrial supply chains coupled with India’s weak manufacturing sector presents a vulnerability that China can exploit for geopolitical leverage. So far, Indian policymakers have divided national security from economics when it comes to China. It will not be easy to establish India’s economic security in the shadow of its giant northern neighbor. It could help find foreign investment to better develop those sectors in India in which China has the lead, such as in green technology and electric vehicles. An economic security ministry could undertake an audit of supply chains to pinpoint risks and seek alternative suppliers to diversify imports. (Source: Foreign Affairs)
South Korea
November 14 2024 09:10:35 South Korea, the U.S. and Japan yesterday launched their second trilateral multidomain drill in international waters of the East Asian country. The three-day Freedom Edge exercise is taking place in international waters of South Korea's southern island of Jeju. Ships and aircraft are taking part in the dril. (Source: Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey)
North America
United States
November 14, 2024, 11:46 PM President-elect Trump selected Florida Rep. Gaetz as his choice to serve as attorney general. Woman told House Ethics Committee Gaetz had sex with her when she was 17. Gaetz abruptly resigned from Congress, ending the House Ethics Committee's investigation. (Source: ABC News - U.S.)
South America
Peru
November 14, 2024 at 4:28 a.m. EST China opens huge port in Peru - a key stop on the new silk route to extend its reach in South America. The megaport opening in the small town of Chancay , which sits 50 miles north of the capital, Lima, Peru will be inaugurated today by Chinese President Xi and his Peruvian counterpart, Boluarte, on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima. The huge port is expected to attract more than $3 billion in investment by creating a direct route across the Pacific Ocean and extend Beijing’s influence in Latin America. It underscores China’s growing clout in a region that once looked primarily to the United States for economic opportunity. The first phase, building a port that will handle only smaller ships, is expected to begin operations this month. The high-tech logistics hub will be exclusively operated by Chinese shipping giant Cosco, which in 2019 invested $1.3 billion to take a 60 percent stake in the project. Chinese state media has estimated the total cost of the finished project to be over $3 billion. Its automated cargo cranes are supplied by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries. Electric driverless trucks made by Chinese companies will be used to handle containers and cargo. The level of Chinese interest and involvement in Chancay has drawn warnings from the United States about Peru potentially being used by Chinese military ships as a foothold in the Americas. Beijing has denied the project is motivated by anything other than commercial interest. Chinese and Peruvian officials have celebrated the project as a transformative opportunity for Peru. President Boluarte has called it a potential “nerve center” joining the continent to Asia, one that could create 8,000 jobs and $4.5 billion in economic activity annually. When completed, the port’s 15 docks will be the first place in South America able to host carrier ships too big to fit through the Panama Canal. Chinese researchers have said the route will cut costs and shorten sailing times by 10 to 20 days, attracting business from other hubs in the region. It could also make Peru an attractive destination for Chinese companies searching for new export markets or even locations to set up factories in the Americas. On a visit to China in June, Boluarte cited Chancay as a reason for Chinese electric car giant BYD to consider establishing an assembly plant in the country. Chancay will join an expanding global network of more than 40 ports under the Belt and Road Initiative, a $1 trillion plan to build transportation and technology infrastructure launched by Xi in 2013. Despite claims of Chancay being a purely commercial venture, Chinese foreign policy experts have written about the project as a geopolitical win for Beijing that will need to be defended from American interference. The Chinese takeover of Chancay has not been without controversy in Peru. The Peruvian port authority tried this year to alter the terms of Cosco’s investment deal, citing an “administrative error” when agreeing to grant the Chinese firm exclusive operating rights over the seaport for 30 years. The lawsuit was dropped in June days before Boluarte traveled to China to meet Xi. Chinese interests in Latin America are fast evolving beyond mining and other extractive industries to include agreements to provide surveillance technology and ground stations for Chinese satellites. “Latin America, and the Global South in general, wants to sell their products to whoever they can, so this sort of fearmongering is unlikely to work,” Dourado, a researcher affiliated with the Center for China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Universidad del Pacífico in Lima said. Xi and Boluarte are also expected to sign an expanded free-trade agreement. China has been Peru’s largest trading partner for a decade. The countries traded $36 billion in goods last year, compared with Peru’s $21 billion trade with the United States. For Beijing, the port promises to bring together a string of existing investments in Peru and neighboring countries. China has ambitions to build a railway line connecting Chancay to Brazil, its largest trading partner in Latin America, and Chinese firms are in the process of taking over electricity distribution for Lima. Chinese investments in the Peruvian mining sector total $11.4 billion. The majority of that is focused on securing access to copper, which is essential to the manufacturing of electronics and clean-energy technologies. With nearly all the world’s copper refining happening in China, the Chancay port will help Beijing improve its access to mines in South America’s second largest producer of raw copper. That choke hold on the supply chain is absolutely critical and dominant. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post - U.S.)
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