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Europe
Russia
November 26, 2024 Launching Oreshnik, an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile without a nuclear warhead at an already thoroughly devastated Ukraine, served this purpose. The attack showed teeth without inflicting grave damage. Russia has shown that it has a weapon, previously unveiled, and was prepared to use it. The launch was a spectacular, if risky, experiment and success. The missile passed the combat conditions test, having reached its target destination of the Yuzhmash military production facility in Dnipro without interception. Encouragingly, the Russian–U.S. warning system proved to work: the Russian Nuclear Risk Reduction Centre issued a pre-notification signal to their American counterpart thirty minutes in advance so that the U.S. missile tracking system knew that such a launch was non-nuclear. An emboldened Putin warned that further test launches might follow, depending on how the West behaves, in an apparent reference to the calls by some European politicians to send their troops to Ukraine. These events have shown that the power transition in the United States is a most precarious period during which significant escalation is possible. It appears that the main safeguard against a major war is the presence of mind in Moscow rather than wisdom emanating from Washington. Is the art of defense diplomacy dead in the West? It is in high demand now. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Matveeva, a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at Russia Institute at King’s College London and the author of Through Times of Trouble (Lexington Books 2018)
26.11.2024 Russian lawmakers today submitted a draft bill to the country’s lower house of parliament on introducing a mechanism to suspend bans on the activities of terror groups in the case of a court decision initiated by the country’s prosecutor general or his deputy if there is data that a particular organization has ceased carrying out activities aimed at promoting, justifying, and supporting terrorism. Slutsky, the leader of Russia’s Liberal Democratic Party, told that the mechanism aims to ensure legal interaction between Russia and the Taliban. “Today's Afghanistan – whether someone likes it or not – is the Taliban. Therefore, we interact and will now interact on an absolutely legal basis,” Slutsky was further quoted as saying by the Russian state news agency Tass. Russia included the Taliban in its list of banned terrorist organizations back in 2003. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
26/11/2024 - 14:12 Russia today accused Ukraine of launching two more attacks on its territory in western Kursk region using US-supplied ATACMS missiles against Russian military installations and the Vostochny airfield on 23 November and 25 November, adding that it was preparing retaliatory actions. A strike on an air defence battery damaged a radar system and also caused casualties. It said three of the five missiles fired in the first strike were shot down, while seven of the eight used in the second were destroyed. Russian forces launched a record 188 drones at Ukraine overnight in an attack that disrupted energy supplies in the east of the country. Ukraine's air force said it had shot down 76 Russian drones in 17 regions, while another 95 were either lost from their radars or downed by electronic jamming defensive systems. In the relatively untouched western Ternopil region authorities said the drones had damaged a critical infrastructure facility, without elaborating. The attack had disrupted electricity supplies in the region. On the battlefield, Ukraine's fatigued troops are struggling to halt advances by Russian forces in the east of the country. Moscow's defence ministry said its units had "liberated" the settlement of Kopanky, a village near the Ukrainian-held city of Kupiansk. (Source: France 24 / AFP - France)
November 26, 2024, 6:00 AM Ukraine and the West will soon find themselves negotiating with Russia to define the terms of a settlement. The West must have a negotiating strategy along four critical parameters: territories, security guarantees for Ukraine, reparations, and sanctions. U.S. Vice President-elect Vance has lobbied for a demilitarized zone along the current front lines and an enduring commitment to Ukraine’s neutrality. But the West is tired. Putin is not. Almost three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the West is no longer has the political will to help Ukraine win by military means and is seeking a settlement with the aggressor instead. Outgoing U.S. President Biden’s belated decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S. missiles to strike targets deep within Russian territory, a critical condition of Ukrainian President Zelensky’s ’victory plan,’ will trigger not only the wrath of Putin, but also that of Trump, who will undoubtedly view any escalation as a shot against his own prospects for dealmaking among strongmen. The most obvious settlement strategy, would likely involve buying Ukrainian and European security with territory - possibly including Donetsk; large chunks of the Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions; and the peninsula of Crimea. This outcome is a far cry from the Western leaders’ earlier commitments to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and hopes for regime change in Russia. "Trump is uninterested in leading the existential fight for democracy". 'Another option, therefore, may have Trump concede to Ukraine’s membership in a new NATO - one without the United States, perhaps - leaving Europeans to be the masters of their own security’. Europe would accept the occupation de facto, but it wouldn’t de jure recognize the territory as Russian land. ’Sanctions against Russia would remain for the time being’. ’Battered and curtailed but still sovereign, Ukraine would gain a nuclear umbrella against future Russian aggression, and Europe would fund the postwar reconstruction’. Putin is now reinforced by his perception that he is winning, even if it is taking longer than he hoped. Though he is a product of a socialist state, the Russian leader is a master of capitalism. In the last two years, not only did Russia fail to fold under the weight of Western sanctions, but it also managed to build parallel economic, financial, and cultural structures that are independent of the West. The economic and cultural mechanisms necessary for military production. are activated. It developed domestic production capabilities. Russia’s economy has been switched on to military footing, there is no shortage of munitions. Russia does not have a manpower crisis like Ukraine does - government payouts ensure an ample supply of volunteers to enlist in the military. Russia has reoriented itself toward the East, increasing trade with China, India, and other countries in Asia and the Middle East. Oil money - the main source of Russia’s war financing - keeps flowing, albeit from a different direction than before. Tankers shuttle Russian oil with payments cleared through offshore shell companies. Cross-border payments are now handled through SPFS, a homegrown alternative to the SWIFT global financial system, and the Mir payment system that replaced Visa and MasterCard. Russia touts these systems to its BRICS partners as alternatives to Western financial hegemony. Assets belonging to Western companies exiting Russia have been nationalized or bought for cheap and redistributed to businesses with ties to the Kremlin - one of the largest property transfers in Russia’s history. Cut off from Western banks, Russian oligarchs must invest their money. Cultural shifts in Russia increase Putin’s confidence in victory. What little dissent remained before the war has largely been rooted out, with Russians closing ranks around their leader. In September and October, more than two-thirds of Russians who said they want the war to end are against returning Russian-occupied territories to Ukraine. On the global stage, Russia has managed to upgrade its status to a leader of the anti-Western coalition. A Russian victory would embarrass the United States, weakening its influence in Asia and helping China. North Korea has found exports - bad shells and soldiers - that it can exchange for food, money, and energy. And Iran is happy to keep the United States distracted from the Middle East. The Putin that the West would face at the negotiating table is a former underdog - a man on a mission to free the world from what he has characterized as Western hegemony, his economy thriving, his new and old friends paying court, and his people unified behind him. Putin would be negotiating from the position of strength and with obligations to his domestic and international stakeholders in mind. Even if Putin wanted to end the war, it would entail serious risk for his regime. The sudden drop in government spending would create real prospects of an economic collapse. Around 1.5 million veterans would have to be pulled out of Ukraine to find new roles in a corrupt Russian society. Inflation is real, and the ruble is weakening. The BRICS countries are not rushing to replace SWIFT with the Russian alternative. In a country reacclimatized to grand-scale violence, the prospect of revolt becomes clear. ’Putin would have to start a new war not long after agreeing to settle for peace’. The support and adoration of the Russian masses can turn on its head overnight. Unless Putin is given precisely what he wants, he will not stop. The West, meanwhile, will be negotiating from a position of inherent weakness. Western leaders have signaled their readiness to consider cessation of a large chunk of Ukrainian territory. The status quo - an ongoing border squabble with conventional weapons - suits all but Ukraine and Europe, for which security deteriorates in direct proportion to Putin’s success. Of the options put forward for a negotiated solution, the only one that Putin would agree to is the one that gives him Ukraine’s capitulation. He will never agree to a thriving, independent, armed, and Western-aligned Ukraine on his border. Putin will therefore demand an unviable Ukraine - without an army and without NATO membership - and, in effect, a Western surrender. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
by Edel, a Russian-born American writer and social historian. She is the author of Russia: Putin’s Playground, a concise guide to Russian history, politics, and culture She teaches history at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at University of California, Berkeley
Ukraine
November 26, 2024 2:00 pm CET The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has been actively investigating claims that domestically produced 120 mm mortar shells have been malfunctioning on the war front for the last three weeks, the ministry said in a statement today. One in 10 Ukrainian-made 120 mm shells from the latest supply batch explodes on the front lines, Ukrainian journalists reported earlier this month. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
26/11/2024 - 12:30 What drives some Latin Americans, especially Colombians, to join the conflict in Ukraine? And why do their experiences sometimes turn into a nightmare? /Video/ (Source: France 24)
United Kingdom
26 November 2024 11:29am GMT Prince of Wales fires sniper rifle and machine gun. Heir to the throne joins 1st Battalion on Salisbury Plain for training exercise despite only being expected to watch demonstration. “He seemed to really like it." Prince William has completed his own military training, joining Sandhurst after graduating university in 2005 for a 44-week course as an Officer Cadet. Commissioned as a British Army officer in December 2006, he joined the Household Cavalry, Blues and Royals, as a second lieutenant and was promoted to lieutenant a year later. In 2008, he served in attachments to the Royal Air Force (RAF) and the Royal Navy, including training in piloting helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, shore training and navigation. He later worked as a search and rescue pilot, first at RAF Valley in Anglesey and then with the East Anglian Air Ambulance. /Video/ (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)
Asia
India
Nov 26, 2024 12:11 PM IST As Trump comes back to power, the vision will be to build on the progress made during his previous term and the Biden administration, cementing India as a cornerstone of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Trump’s 100-day challenge includes tackling inflation and manufacturing demands, which would require a balance between tariffs, job creation, and immigration reform and the problems on the border. During his first term between 2017-2021, Trump centered his campaign on “build the wall”, while this time, he touched on 16 million undocumented immigrants in the country and blamed the Biden-Harris campaign for what he described as dereliction of securing the southern border. For Trump, managing immigration - both legal and illegal - will be a complex, costly, and politically charged challenge. A Trump administration will likely continue policies aimed at curbing illegal immigration, but the issue is intertwined with legal immigration concerns. H-1B visas have been the central focus for the Indian tech and white-collar workers in the United States, especially in the STEM line of work. STEM graduates are crucial for U.S. industries, particularly since a skilled workforce is needed to meet demands in technology and innovation and high-end manufacturing, particularly chip design. Approximately 70% of H-1Bs are granted to Indian citizens. For decades, the technology industry has provided the U.S. with a global competitive edge, and Silicon Valley continues to epitomize that hub for innovation. The Indian tech worker plays a vital part in the United States’ tech economy, as the brightest minds seek American institutions for cutting-edge STEM education and then go on to build robust tech start-ups hence the very economic and innovative strength of Silicon Valley is tied to the Indian tech worker. However, Trump’s position on limiting immigration means there could be challenges for the H-1B worker. Unless illegal immigration is addressed effectively, the Trump administration may find it difficult to balance public sentiment with the economic need for a skilled workforce. His administration will have to navigate a delicate balance between tightening borders and ensuring that the U.S. workforce remains globally competitive, especially as China seeks to close the economic gap. Trump’s economic strategy might include a continuation of tariffs and a push to re-shore manufacturing jobs. American companies will likely adopt a “China-plus-one” strategy, where they maintain access to the Chinese market while diversifying operations to other countries like India. This strategy aligns with the example set by Apple, whose multiple vendors have invested nearly $5 billion in manufacturing across the states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. This has led the tech giant to reportedly assemble $14 billion worth of iPhones in India in 2024 - double the previous year’s production. Along with Australia, and Japan, the United States, and India share a vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. The Quad is a formidable nearly $35 trillion coalition of four democracies – US, India, Japan, and Australia, that is reshaping the economic landscape in the region. China’s ambitions in the Asia-Pacific and its goal of becoming a dominant global power accentuate the role of the Quad in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad can serve as a vital framework instead of bilateral trade deals to bolster economic engagement between the four democracies. With its growing industrial capabilities, India could serve as an alternative supply chain base for American companies, allowing them to reduce their reliance on China. This pivot also aligns with India’s interests as it seeks to establish itself as a manufacturing hub and build on resilient supply chains. Tesla in India, would not just boost e-mobility and work for India’s climate goals, but be a vital factor in India’s chip manufacturing capabilities, that autonomous vehicles rely on. (Source: Hindustan Times - India)
by Aghi, the President and CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF).
26 Nov, 2024 05:22 AM Outdated digital map. Three men die after Google Maps directs driver off incomplete Indian bridge. /Photo/ (Source: New Zealand Herald)
North America
United States
26 November 2024 3:26pm GMT Biden entered office operating under the misapprehension that America was a spent force. His efforts to preserve Ukrainian sovereignty amid Russia’s war of naked territorial expansionism were hamstrung by his dim view of America’s capabilities. Biden’s “timid” national security team “bought into this notion that, well, if we give them too much, then Russia’s going to use a tactical nuke on us,” House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman McCaul observed in April. It was because the Biden White House lost faith in the deterrent power of the West’s nuclear and non-nuclear assets that the President seemed paralysed by the prospect of Russian escalation. There are in Trump’s orbit who appear to be similarly convinced that the United States is a declining power that must triage its priorities. Colby, Trump’s former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, is often one of those voices. He has maintained that it is nothing short of a “delusion” to presume that the US can compete against Russia and China simultaneously. Thus, preventing Ukraine from being swallowed up by Russia is a “distraction” from what should be the foremost task: containing Chinese expansionism. “To be blunt,” he and his co-author wrote, “Taiwan is more important than Ukraine”. “The Gaza conflict has forced the US to refocus on the Middle East after years of redirecting diplomatic and military resources to counter a rising China” – he wrote on social media: “Distraction is also a choice, not just ‘forced’”. The article he cited to justify his observation also noted that one of the Iran-backed terrorist groups at war with Israel – the Yemeni Houthis – has embarked on a successful campaign of maritime terrorism against shipping interests in the Gulf of Aden, to say nothing of US Navy assets. The erosion of US hegemony on the high seas, forcing commercial interests to shadow Russian and Chinese vessels as they transit into the Suez Canal, is hardly a “distraction”. Only if we conclude that the obligations of the world’s sole superpower and the guarantor of the global marketplace are the “distraction” does any of this make sense. Given the conditions Biden’s inconstancy brought about, it’s hard to see how the Trump administration can pursue its desire to see the Russian-Ukrainean conflict resolved absent a negotiated cease-fire. At best, that process will hand Moscow another “frozen conflict” – one that it will thaw out at its leisure. In the meantime, the Kremlin will engineer a series of crises along the line of contact, just as it did when the Minsk frameworks were operative. Shorn of its industrial eastern oblasts, Ukraine will struggle to rebuild itself and reconstitute its forces, contributing to the anxiety of Nato members on the frontier with living memories of Russian domination. If those allies conclude that Washington’s collective security guarantees aren’t worth much and Ukraine comes to look like a failed state, those nations may take their security into their own hands – introducing far more complexity, instability, and prospects for conflagration into the mix. How this dynamic results in a more secure America, only the advocates of retrenchment seem to grasp. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)
by Rothman
November 26, 2024 “For if they do these things when the wood is green, what will happen when it is dry?” Widespread poverty and economic precarity have become defining characteristics of our impoverished democracy: more than two of every five of us are poor or low-income, and three in five are living paycheck-to-paycheck without affordable healthcare, decent homes, or quality education. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 report Poverty in the United States: 2023, 41% of this country’s population has a household income either under the poverty threshold or just above it, precariously living one emergency away from financial ruin. That translates into approximately 137 million people who are struggling every day to make it through without falling even further behind. Those tens of millions of people include a disproportionate percentage of people of color, including 56.5% of Black people (23.4 million), 61.4% of Latino people (40.2 million), 55.8% of Indigenous people (1.4 million), and 38% of Asian people (8.5 million). They also include nearly one-third of white people, 60 million, and nearly half (49%) of all children in the United States. Such rates are slightly higher for women (42.6%) than for men (39.8%), including 44.6% for elderly women. When tallied up, these numbers mirror pre-pandemic conditions in 2018 and 2019, during which poverty and low-income rates stood at about 40%, impacting 140 million people in every county, state, and region of the country. In other words, in this sick reality of ours, poverty is clearly anything but a marginal experience - and yet, as in the last election, it’s repeatedly minimalized and dismissed in our nation’s politics. In the process, the daily lives of nearly one-third of the electorate are discounted, because among that vast impoverished population, there are approximately 80 million eligible voters described by political strategists as among the most significant blocs of voters to win over. Case in point: In 2020 and 2021, there was a significant dip in the overall number of people who were poor or low-income. Covid pandemic programs that offered financial help also expanded access to health care, food stamps, free school meals, and unemployment insurance, while monthly support from the Child Tax Credit lifted over 20 million people out of poverty and insecurity while increasing protection from evictions and foreclosures. Such programs made millions of people more economically secure than they had been in years. Nonetheless, instead of extending and improving them and potentially gaining the trust of millions of poor and low-income voters, all of these anti-poverty policies were ended by early 2023. By 2024, not only had the gains against poverty been swiftly erased, but more than 25 million people had been kicked off Medicaid, including millions in battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Rather than speaking to such economic crises or pledging to address such pervasive insecurity, over the course of the election season, the Democrats emphasized a rising GDP, a strong job market, and important infrastructure investments made in recent years - macro-economic issues that had little effect on the material well-being of the majority of Americans, especially those struggling with the rising cost of living. For instance, pre-election polling among Latino voters showed that three-quarters (78%) of them had experienced an increase in food and basic living expenses; two-thirds (68%) emphasized the high costs of rent and housing; and nearly three in five (57%) said that their wages weren’t high enough to meet their cost of living and/or they had to take second jobs to make ends meet. When you consider the grim final results of election 2024, such realities - and the decision of the Democrats to functionally disregard poor and low-income voters - should be taken into account. In that same time period, the Biden administration approved an $895 billion budget for war and another $95 billion in additional aid to Ukraine and Israel. (Source: CounterPunch - U.S.)
by Theoharis, a theologian, ordained minister, and anti-poverty activist. Co-chair of the Poor People’s Campaign: A National Call for Moral Revival and director of the Kairos Center for Religions, Rights and Social Justice at Union Theological Seminary in New York City. She is the author of Always With Us? What Jesus Really Said About the Poor and We Cry Justice: Reading the Bible with the Poor People’s Campaign;
Gupta Barnes, the Policy Director of the Kairos Center for Rights, Religions and Social Justice and the Poor People’s Campaign: A National Call for Moral Revival. She has a background in law, economics, and human rights and has spent nearly 20 years working with and for poor and dispossessed communities.
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