Egyik 19

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United States
October 14, 2024 4:00 AM CET  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has concocted a way to let Trump, if he successfully makes it to the White House for a second term come November, wriggle out of a $50 billion loan the U.S., the European Union and leaders of the G7 offered to Ukraine to back its fight against Russia. Hungary says it won’t consent to a change in rules that would allow Washington to play a major role in the loan until after the U.S. election. That would let Trump off the hook, allowing him to tell Republican voters that, if elected, he won’t give Ukraine another cent. Washington insists that the EU needs to extend the sanctions renewal timeframe to at least 36 months. Under current rules, the EU’s sanctions come up for renewal every six months. While every other leader is in favor of extending the sanctions rollover period to 36 months as 'requested' by the U.S., Orbán refuses. According to the EU’s own rules, all 27 member countries need to approve any changes to the sanctions rules. It’s about helping Trump,” said an EU diplomat. If Brussels and Washington jointly underwrite the €35 billion loan, a reelected Trump would be tied to servicing it for years. But if the loan is approved without the U.S., he would have no such obligation. Now, the U.S. is unlikely to participate substantially. Still, Europe is likely to go ahead anyway. As Orbán threatens to use his veto in Brussels, the U.S. signaled that it is considering participating in the loan - albeit with a significantly lower amount - even if the EU cannot prolong its sanctions period, another EU diplomat and a European Commission official said. One of the options involves Washington contributing $5 billion, which roughly equals the amount of Russian assets that it holds domestically. The Commission official believes that the U.S. does not want to arrive empty-handed at a meeting of G7 finance ministers in Washington at the end of October that will likely decide the fine print of the $50 billion loan. Japan recently signaled that it might pull out of the loan if the U.S. does not take part. If Hungary refuses to budge on the sanctions duration, the EU is likely to finalize the loan on its own terms because its budget rules make it much easier to get the payment approved by national capitals before year-end. The EU is fast-tracking legislation to pay up to €35 billion to Ukraine, which covers the U.S. share of the loan and is set to be finalized by the end of October. But penny-pinching governments in the EU are reluctant to increase their contribution to cover the shortfall from the U.S. (Source: politico)

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Europe

European Commission
03/10/2024 - 13:55  The European Commission decided to refer Hungary to the Court of Justice because it considers its national laws criminalise groups that receive foreign funding of election campaigns, including NGOs and established a new Sovereignty Protection Office that has broad investigative powers. (Source: France24 / AFP)
A comment: This could block the Office for the Defence of Sovereignty from conducting investigations until the matter has been resolved.

United States
Oct 03, 2024  Will the post-Oct. 7 war permanently alter Washington's 80-year commitment to the Jewish state? The already deeply polarized debate over the U.S.-Israel relationship is likely to become more intense in the future. In the U S.-Israeli understandings reached in the aftermath of the June 1967 war, the U.S. pledged to maintain Israel’s conventional military superiority over any combination of regional enemies. Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) is a commitment enshrined in U.S. law. Israeli dependence upon Washington's unquestioning direct military engagement remain critical.  Israel’s long-held contention at the heart of U.S.-Israel strategic cooperation - that the conventional arsenal supplied by the U.S. to Israel, or QME, enables it to “defend itself by itself ” - undermines deployment of U.S. forces to defend against Iranian missile attacks against Israel. Washington has responded with more weapons, and more money for Israel - well over $300 billion in all, the most U.S. aid provided to a single foreign country by far. The United States is a gerontocracy whose most important leaders were politicized 'in an era when Israel was viewed as, in effect, a post-Holocaust gift to international Jewry', and to criticize it was to in some real sense align with anti-semites. The U.S. is still effectively enabling Israel to escalate even as it calls for regional de-escalation. The U.S. isn’t incapable of reforming the relationship - it’s unwilling. Some 'incalculable portion" of younger Americans is less committed to virtual carte blanche for Israel’s leaders. Israel's "right to defend itself" cannot offer an adequate moral justification for the brutal punishment inflicted on the Palestinian people. The relationship is contributing more than ever to the geopolitical weakening of America. As the Biden administration frantically runs cover for Israeli criminal actions, the cost to the U.S. in political, reputational, legal and other arenas increases exponentially. It seems that there is nothing Israel could do that would cause this administration to impose consequences or restrict the vast flow of American resources into Israel's war machine, even as it threatens to drag the United States into war and potentially to destroy the Democrats' chance of retaining control of the White House. The next generation of American voters has demonstrated they will not support the U.S. sending billions of tax dollars to a country that murders and starves entire populations. Pro-Israel groups and their congressional supporters have attempted to silence debate and arrest the growth of pro-Palestinian sentiment. State laws have been enacted penalizing individuals or groups that endorse sanctions on Israel and they’ve expanded the definition of antisemitism to include legitimate criticism of Israel. There’s been pressure from Republicans and donors to impose severe speech restrictions on university campuses and 'dark money' groups are spending over $100 million to target the campaigns of members of Congress sympathetic towards Palestinians. (Source: Responsible Statecraft *)
* The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, an American think tank specializing in US foreign policy.

.4 10 28 12:07

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United States
Oct 13, 2024 12:31 PM IST  Walz, Harris' running mate faces unverified allegations of inappropriate behavior with male students during his time as a professor and football coach. These allegations emerged on social media by a user, going by @DocNetyoutube could impact the Democratic campaign. The claims also mention Walz visiting a gay bar with the student, which allegedly led to a school board investigation. According to this source, Walz left his teaching position due to a scandal involving this male student. The X (Twitter) user issued a warning, further detailing the situation by writing. A social media post mentioned a reporter who recently observed tension between Walz and parents and students at a Mankato West High School football game. Walz's time at Mankato West (1996-2006) had alleged inappropriate behavior with male students. The post also alleged that Walz reportedly had a sexual relationship with another male student, earning him the nickname 'Touchdown Timmy,' and that he helped establish a support group for gay students in 1999 called the Gay-Straight Alliance (GSA). If any of these allegations prove to be true, it could spell trouble for the Democrats. The Harris campaign is yet to respond to these allegations. (Source: hindustantimes *)
* Hindustan Times, an Indian English-language daily newspaper based in Delhi.

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North America

United States
12.10.2024  Former US President Trump's campaign has requested military aircraft for Trump to fly in during the final weeks of the presidential race, expanded flight restrictions over his residences and rallies, ballistic glass pre-positioned in seven battleground states for the campaign’s use, and an array of military vehicles to transport Republican nominee. The requests came after Trump’s campaign advisers received briefings in which the government said Iran is still actively plotting to kill him. Campaign manager Wiles expressed displeasure with the Secret Service to Rowe Jr., the head of the Secret Service, adding that the campaign recently had to cancel a public event at the last minute due to a 'lack of personnel' from the Secret Service, which has been squeezed by a shortage of agents at the height of the presidential race. There are heightened concerns for Trump’s safety, with his campaign recently stating that he had been briefed on 'real and specific threats' from Iran. US Election Day is on Tuesday, Nov. 5, just weeks away. (Source: aa *)
* Anadolu Agency (Turkey)

(October 12, 2024) 10:54  It has become a ritual now for some foreign leaders to have three meetings while in the United States, one with Biden, another with Harris and a third with Trump. In the nearly four years since he left the White House, Trump has acted as something of a shadow president on international affairs operating out of what he used to call the Winter White House at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Even before he kicked off a comeback bid to reclaim his old office, foreign governments realized that Trump was still a force in American politics and that they needed to take him into account in their dealings with the United States. Now that he is the Republican nominee for president in next month’s election, foreign leaders have been playing up to Trump even more. A parade of world leaders has made the pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago or to Trump Tower in New York, including the leaders of Ukraine, Israel, Poland, Hungary, Argentina, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and other countries. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia rang up Trump’s cellphone. The newly elected prime minister of Britain dropped by last month for dinner. "Very unusual for a former president,” said Shapiro, a former State Department official who is now director of the U.S. program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "I suppose it comes from his status as both a former and possibly future president, which is of course unique.” "As a former president, he has the contacts and the relationships,” Shapiro added. "As a possible future president, he has the potential power to deliver for foreign leaders in the not-too-distant future.” 'Trump, long an admirer of Putin, has said that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was "very smart” and refused to say he hoped Ukraine would win. He went so far this year as to say he would "encourage” Russia to "do whatever the hell they want” in terms of attacking NATO allies that have not spent enough on their own militaries'. "Trump was lobbied by competing world leaders. In March, he hosted Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary, a skeptic of helping Ukraine. Then in April, Cameron, the foreign secretary of Britain at the time, traveled to Mar-a-Lago and a week later President Duda of Poland met with Trump in New York, both to implore the former president to release his effective hold on the Ukrainian aid'. Days later, with Johnson finally putting the measure on the floor, Congress passed $60.8 billion in aid to Ukraine in both chambers on strong bipartisan votes, although a majority of Republicans still voted against it in the House. The dispute left President Zelenskyy in an awkward position. In an interview with The New Yorker, Zelenskyy questioned Trump’s claim to be able to settle the war in 24 hours if elected. Trump fired back. 'The president of Ukraine is in our country,” he said at a campaign event. "He is making little nasty aspersions toward your favorite president - me. We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refuses to make a deal - Zelenskyy.' (Source: japantimes / The New York Times)

Oct. 12, 2024, 9:32 AM GMT+2  U.S. officials say Israel has narrowed down its targets for strike on Iran. There is no indication that Israel will target nuclear facilities or carry out assassinations. U.S. officials have continued to urge the Israeli government to make their response proportional, sticking to military targets and avoiding oil, gas and nuclear facilities. (Source: nbcnews *)
* NBC News is the news division of the American broadcast television network NBC. Headquarters New York City, U.S.

Space

(Saturday, 12 October 2024 03:08 AM)  Comet C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, last seen visible from our planet by Neanderthals brighten night skies in the Northern Hemisphere, could be visible to the naked eye this weekend. Today, the comet will come within about 71 million kilometers of Earth. It will initially appear low on the western horizon about an hour after sunset. It won't return for another 80,000 years. /photo/ (Source: dw / dpa, AFP, AP)

.4 10 29 17:19

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Europe

European Council
10.10.2024  The European Council announced that member states have agreed on a new financial aid package which includes an exceptional €35 billion macro-financial assistance loan to Ukraine and a mechanism to support the country in repaying up to €45 billion in loans provided by the EU and G7 partners. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Western countries have frozen approximately $300 billion worth of Russian assets, with around $200 billion of that held in EU countries. The frozen assets generate billions of dollars in interest each year. (Source: aa *)
* Anadolu Agency (Turkey)

European Union
10-10-2024  06:00  Hungary’s Orbán faces increasing unease among EU member states ahead of November summits. Some member states are mulling coordinating against Hungary ahead of the summit, or even withdrawing altogether. (Source: euractiv *)
* Euractiv, a news website. Headquarters Brussels, with other offices in Paris and Berlin. Its ournalists are staffed in Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
by Brzozowski 

Russia
October 10, 2024, 6:08 AM  Russia has recruited about 200 women ages 18-22 from across Africa to work in a factory in what is called the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, in Russia's republic of Tatarstan, about 1,000 kilometers  east of Moscow, assembling thousands of Iranian-designed attack drones to be launched into Ukraine. (Source: apnews)

Ukraine
10 October 2024 08:00 (UTC+04:00)  According to a statement by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, an attack was carried out by Ukraine's Navy and units of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU): The Ukrainian military hit a base storing drones that Russia uses for daily attacks against Ukraine near the village of Oktyabrsky in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. According to the release the base was used as a storage of Iranian Shahed-type drones. The general staff says that Russia has used more than 1,300 such drones in September against Ukraine daily in a month. About 400 attack drones were reportedly stored at the Russian base. (Source: azernews)

North America

United States
Oct 10, 2024 at 10:15 AM EDT  A group linked to a pro-Palestinian hacktivist movement has launched a catastrophic cyberattack revealing the details of 31 million people, compromising their email addresses and screen names. An account on X under the name SN_BlackMeta claimed responsibility for the attack on The Internet Archive, a nonprofit organization, and implied that further attacks were planned. The Internet Archive is known for its digital library and the Wayback Machine. (Source: newsweek)

October 10, 2024 5:30 AM  Flooded electric cars going up in flames. Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer and state fire marshal, issued a statement on Monday detailing a string of fires in the wake of Hurricane Helene, which flooded much of the Gulf Coast just two week ago. The state found 50,000 EV and hybrid registrations in the path of Hurricane Milton’s storm surge and counted at least 64 lithium battery fires after Hurricane Helene. EVs accounted for 17 of those but the rest were devices like scooters, hoverboards and golf carts. One fire was even sparked by an electric wheelchair. (Source: msn / Miami Herald)

October 10, 2024  The ’far-right’ conspiracy site Gateway Pundit boosted Greene’s claims with a grab-bag set of testimonials from other merchants of paranoia. The piece highlights the findings of no less an authority than Kennedy Jr., who declared that nefarious deep-state actors have seized control of the weather via the Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum. “They aggravate the problem, and sell us the solution,” Kennedy breathlessly announced. “The solution they want is more social controls.” (Source: thenation *)
* The Nation, a ’progressive’ American monthly magazine based in New York City, U.S.

Space
United States
Oct 10, 2024 1:08 PM EDT  In 2022, the U.S. government announced a self-imposed moratorium on destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite weapon testing and called on others to do the same. Such testing, like one Russia conducted in 2021, creates clouds of debris that pose significant threats to other objects in orbit. A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket carrying one of two X-37B reusable spaceplanes was launched from the Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39A on December 28, 2023. The U.S. Space Force, to which the two X-37Bs are now assigned, announced planned orbital maneuvers as part of the current Orbital Test Vehicle 7 (OTV-7) mission earlier today. One of America’s secretive X-37Bs is set to perform a series of aerobraking maneuvers – a series of passes using the drag of Earth’s atmosphere – that will significantly change its orbit, around Earth while expending minimal fuel and safely dispose of its service module components in accordance with recognized standards for space debris mitigation which is said to be a first-of-its-kind event for the mini-space shuttle. This is part of the seventh known X-37B mission, which began last December, and has already involved the reusable spaceplane operating in a much higher orbit than ever before. As noted, the mini-shuttle will have to pass relatively close to the Earth to drag in the atmosphere to execute the maneuver at all. “Since December 28, 2023, the United States Space Force, supported by the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office, has conducted radiation effect experiments and has been testing Space Domain Awareness technologies in a Highly Elliptical Orbit,” in its release today, Space Force cited. “This novel and efficient series of maneuvers demonstrates the Space Force’s commitment to achieving groundbreaking innovation as it conducts national security missions in space,” Secretary of the Air Force Kendall said in a statement. The reusable spaceplane has a truckbed-sized main payload bay and can carry additional payloads on a service module adapter attached to its tail end. Space Delta 9 is the specific unit within the Space Force that now oversees the X-37Bs. It has an “orbital warfare” mission for preparing, presenting and projecting assigned and attached forces for the purpose of conducting protect and defend operations and providing national decision authorities with response options to deter orbital threats. Space-based early warning satellites are the most commonly cited capabilities in this ecosystem. Currently, the Air Force only acknowledges having only one “counter-space” system, a terrestrial electronic warfare jammer called the Counter Communications System (CCS). “We … are looking at the role of EW [electronic warfare], particularly against some of the space threats that are coming out. So the space-based side of it’s very important to us,” Air Force Secretary Kendall told on the sidelines of the Air & Space Forces Association’s (AFA) main annual conference last month. In the face of the ever-expanding threats to U.S. assets in orbit, including Russian work on a new space-based nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapon, Space Force is “creating counter-space capabilities that allows us to be more resilient… and then when they [adversaries] have offensive capabilities of their own, our ability to either maneuver, to deny, to hide, to run,” Chief of Space Operations Saltzman said. Aerobraking maneuvers could be one means for space-based assets to evade hostile attacks. (Source: twz *)
* The Warzone, an online magazine (U.S.)
by Trevithick

.4 10 25 02:07

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European Parliament
Wednesday, 9 October 2024 09:09:49 - 09:36:43  Plenary Session. Presentation of the programme of activities of the Hungarian Presidency. Current speaker Viktor Orbán, Hungary. /video/ (Source: euparl.europa.eu)
- Note: The interpretation in English - Duration: 00:26:54 –

Európai Parlament
Szerda, 2024 október 9. 09:09:49 - 09:36:43. Plenáris ülés. A Magyar Elnökség tevékenységi programjának bemutatása. Orbán Viktor, a Tanács soros elnöke: – Tisztelt Elnök Asszony! Azért jöttem, hogy ébresztőt fújjak. Draghi és Macron elnök úr példáját követem. Az Európai Uniónak változtatnia kell, és én erről szeretném Önöket ma meggyőzni. Magyarország 2011 után másodszor tölti be az Európai Unió Tanácsának soros elnökségét. Én személyesen is másodszor látom el ezt a feladatot. Álltam már itt Önök előtt. Másodszor mutatom be Önöknek a magyar elnökség programját. 34 éve vagyok parlamenti képviselő, ezért tudom, hogy megtiszteltetés, hogy Önök most meghallgatnak engem. Miniszterelnökként beszélni a parlamenti képviselők előtt mindig megtiszteltetés. Van összehasonlítási alapom, 2011-ben, az első elnökségünk idején is válságokkal küzdöttünk. Kezelnünk kellett akkor a pénzügyi válság következményeit, az arab tavasz következményeit és a fukusima-i katasztrófát. Akkor erősebb Európát ígértünk, és teljesítettük is, amit vállaltunk. Elfogadtuk az első európai szintű roma-stratégiát és a Duna-stratégiát is. A mi elnökségünk alatt indítottuk el az Európai Szemeszter nevű gazdaságpolitikai koordinációs folyamatot, ami akkor még valóban az volt, aminek hívták, és az első elnökségünk alatt fordult elő utoljára, hogy az Unió sikeresen lezárt egy csatlakozási folyamatot, Horvátország csatlakozását. Emlékeztetőül: mindez 2011 ben történt. Nem volt könnyű, de a munkánk ma sokkal nehezebb, mint akkor volt. Nehezebb, mert az Unió helyzete ma jóval súlyosabb, mint 2011-ben, és talán súlyosabb, mint az Unió története során bármikor. Mit látunk ma? Ukrajnában, vagyis Európában háború dúl, súlyos konfliktusok pusztítanak és hatnak ki ránk a Közel-Keleten és Afrikában, és mindegyik konfliktus magában hordozza az eszkaláció veszélyét. A migrációs válság 2015 óta nem látott méreteket ölt. Az illegális migráció és a biztonsági fenyegetések most már azzal fenyegetnek, hogy a schengeni térség szétesik. És mindeközben Európa veszít globális képességéből. Draghi szerint Európát lassú agónia fenyegeti. S idézhetem Macron elnök urat is, aki szerint Európa meghalhat, mert 2-3 éven belül kiszorul a piacairól. Tisztelt Képviselők! Látható, hogy az Unió a saját sorsát meghatározó döntések előtt áll. Mélyen tisztelt Elnök Asszony! Az elnökség természetesen szervezési és koordinációs munka is. Ügyintézés. Jelentem a tisztelt képviselőtársaknak, hogy eddig 585 tanácsi munkacsoporti ülést vezettünk le, 24 nagyköveti tanácskozást elnököltünk, megtartottunk 8 formális és 12 informális tanácsülést, 69 elnökségi rendezvényt bonyolítottunk Brüsszelben, 92 rendezvényt pedig Magyarországon. A magyarországi rendezvényeinken több mint 10 ezer vendéget köszönthettünk. Tájékoztatom Önöket, hogy a Tanácsi jogalkotási munka teljes gőzzel zajlik, 52 jogalkotási dosszién dolgozunk a Tanács különböző szintjein. Az elnökség kész bármikor megkezdeni a trilógus tárgyalásokat is az Európai Parlamenttel. Jelenleg mindössze két jogalkotási dossziéban folytatunk triológust Önökkel, de van még 41 dosszié, amiben erre szükség lenne, és várjuk, hogy ez megtörténhessen. Tudom, hogy választások voltak, és ilyenkor nehéz intézményi átmenetnek vagyunk tanúi. De most már eltelt négy hónap, és mi készen állunk arra, hogy a 41 konzultációra váró dossziéban is együttműködhessünk Önökkel. A magyar elnökség tisztességes közvetítőként és konstruktív együttműködésre törekszik valamennyi tagállammal és intézménnyel. Ugyanakkor a magyar elnökség meg fogja védeni a Tanács szerződéseken alapuló jogosítványait, például az Európai Parlament és a Bizottság közötti intézményközi megállapodás tekintetében is. De tisztelt Képviselők, mélyen tisztelt Elnök Asszony! Az elnökség nem csupán ügyintézés. A magyar elnökségnek politikai felelőssége is van. Azért jöttem most ide Önökhöz Strasbourgba, hogy bemutassam, mit javasol a magyar elnökség Európának ebben a válságos időszakban. A legfontosabb, hogy a mi Uniónknak változnia kell. A magyar elnökség a változás hangja és annak katalizátora kíván lenni. A döntéseket az Unió tagállamainak és intézményeinek kell meghozniuk, nem a magyar elnökségnek. A magyar elnökség problémákat vet fel és javaslatokat tesz az Unió békéje, biztonsága és jóléte érdekében. Első helyre soroljuk a versenyképesség problémáját. Szinte mindenben osztom Letta és Draghi elnök urak jelentéseinek helyzetértékelését. Röviden: az EU gazdasági növekedése az elmúlt két évtizedben tartósan lassabb volt, mint az Egyesült Államoké és Kínáé. Az uniós termelékenység lassabban növekszik, mint a versenytársaké. A világkereskedelmi részesedésünk csökken. Az Unió vállalatai kétszer-háromszor magasabb villamosenergia-árakkal szembesülnek, mint az Egyesült Államokban. A földgázárak itt négyszer-ötször magasabbak. Az orosz energiáról való leválás következtében az Európai Unió jelentős GDP-növekedést veszített el, és közben jelentős pénzügyi forrásokat kellett átcsoportosítani energiatámogatásokra, s a cseppfolyósított földgáz behozatalához szükséges infrastruktúra megépítésére. Az európai vállalatok fele az energiaköltséget tekinti a beruházások fő akadályának. Az energiát intenzíven használó iparágak esetében, melyek fontosak az Unió gazdaságában, a termelés 10-15%-kal esett vissza. Mélyen tisztelt Elnök Asszony! A magyar elnökség azt javasolja, hogy ne ringassuk magunkat abban az illúzióban, hogy a zöld átmenet önmagában megoldást kínál erre a problémára. Ez nincs így. Még ha teljesülnek is a megújuló energiaforrások telepítésére vonatkozó célkitűzések, tehát még ha teljesülnek is a céljaink – induljunk ki ebből, legyünk pozitívak – minden elemzés szerint 2030-ig nem csökken jelentősen azoknak az üzemóráknak, óráknak az aránya, amelyben a fosszilis tüzelőanyagok határozzák majd meg az energiaárakat. Ezzel szembe kell néznünk. Az európai zöld megállapodás alapja az volt, hogy új zöld munkahelyeket hozunk létre. Azonban a kezdeményezés értelme megkérdőjeleződik, ha a dekarbonizáció az európai termelés visszaeséséhez és munkahelyek elvesztéséhez vezet. Az autóipar az Uniós tervezés hiányának egyik legkirívóbb példája, ahol iparpolitika nélkül alkalmazzuk a klímapolitikát. Úgy alkalmazzuk a klímapolitikát, hogy közben nincs iparpolitikánk. Az EU azonban nem követte a klíma-ambíciókat az európai beszállítói lánc átalakításának ösztönzésével, ezért az európai vállalatok jelentős piaci részesedést veszítenek. Ha pedig a kereskedelmi korlátozások felé lépünk – és látom, vannak ilyen tervek – higgyék el, még több piacot fogunk veszíteni. Tisztelt Képviselők! Az Európai Unió és az Egyesült Államok közötti termelékenységi szakadék kialakulásának fő oka, azt hiszem, a digitális technológia volt, és úgy tűnik, hogy a mi lemaradásunk – Európa lemaradása – tovább nő. A mi vállalataink feleannyit költenek kutatásra és fejlesztésre GDP arányában, mint az Egyesült Államok vállalatai. Ehhez társulnak még a kedvezőtlen demográfiai folyamatok. Látható a számokból, a migráció nem kompenzálja az EU népességének természetes csökkenését. Vagyis ez azt jelenti, hogy Európa modern-kori történelme során először lépünk be egy olyan időszakba, amikor a termelésünk a GDP növekedését nem fogja támogatni a munkaerő folyamatos növekedése. Óriási kihívás. Draghi és Macron elnök urak után én is azt mondom, a helyzet súlyos és azonnali cselekvést igényel. A huszonnegyedik órában vagyunk, a most úttörőnek számító technológiákban néhány éven belül eldől, hogy ki marad talpon. Kérem, fontolják meg, hogy a leépülő ipari kapacitásokat sokkal nehezebb visszahozni, mint megtartani. Az elveszített készség, tapasztalat és szaktudás nem, vagy csak nagyon nehezen pótolható. Nem akarom Önöket azzal áltatni, hogy van könnyű vagy egyszerű megoldás. Ezek súlyos kihívások és súlyos gondok. De szeretném az intézményi ciklus elején egyértelművé tenni, hogy a tagállamok ezen a téren gyors és határozott fellépést várnak az európai intézményektől. Várjuk, a tagállamok várják az adminisztratív terhek csökkentését, várjuk a túlszabályozás enyhítését, várjuk a megfizethető energia biztosítását, várjuk a zöld iparpolitikát, várjuk a belső piac erősítését, várjuk a tőkepiaci uniót, s a tagállamok várják a kereskedelempolitika szélesítését, blokkosítás helyett a konnektivitás-növelő kereskedelempolitikát! Mélyen tisztelt Elnök Asszony! Van néhány siker, amire építhetünk. Az Európai Unió dinamikusan fejlődő akkumulátoripara ilyen siker. Legalábbis ezt mondja Draghi elnök úr. Az akkumulátor technológiára fordított közfinanszírozás az elmúlt évtizedben átlagosan 18%-kal nőtt, s ez kulcsfontosságú volt Európa pozíciójának megerősítésében. Ma már Európa, Japán és Dél-Korea mögött harmadik helyen áll. Az akkumulátortárolási technológiákra vonatkozó szabadalmi bejelentések terén ez nagy javulás. Úgy látszik, hogy a célzott és stratégiai beavatkozás Európa számára sikeres és előnyös lehet. Tisztelt Ház! Tisztelt Képviselőtársaim! A magyar elnökség célja, hogy elfogadjunk egy új európai versenyképességi megállapodást, az Európai Tanács budapesti informális ülésén november 8-án. Új versenyképességi paktumot. Meggyőződésem, hogy a legmagasabb szintű politikai elkötelezettség lendületet ad az európai versenyképességi fordulathoz, amire szükségünk van. Javaslom, hogy ezt állítsuk az előttünk álló intézményi ciklus cselekvési tervének középpontjába. Engedjék meg, hogy a versenyképesség után mondjak néhány szót a migrációs válságról is. Európát évek óta sújtja a migrációs nyomás, ami hatalmas terhet ró különösen az Unió külső határain elhelyezkedő tagállamokra. Az Unió külső határait meg kell védeni. A külső határok védelme az Unió egészének érdekeit szolgálja, ezért ahhoz az Uniónak érdemi támogatást kellene nyújtania. Nem először állok itt Önök előtt, és nem először mondom el, Önök is láthatják, hogy 2015 óta Magyarország is és személyesen én is komoly politikai vitákat vívok a migráció ügyében. Sok mindent láttam már, láttam kezdeményezéseket, csomagokat, javaslatokat, amelyek nagy reményekkel fogadtak és mind sikertelennek bizonyult. Ennek egyetlen oka van, higgyék el nekem, hogy külső hotspot-ok nélkül nem tudjuk megvédeni az európaiakat az illegális migrációtól. Ha egyszer valakit beengedünk, az többet nem fogjuk tudni hazaküldeni, ha van a tartózkodási jogalapja, ha nem. Egyetlen megoldás van. Csak azokat szabad beengedni az Unió területére, akiknek erre előzetesen megadtuk az engedélyt, és belépni csak engedéllyel lehet az Unióba. Minden más megoldás meggyőződésem szerint illúzió. Ne áltassuk magunkat, az EU menekültügyi rendszere ma nem működik. Az illegális migráció Európában az antiszemitizmus, a nők elleni erőszak és a homofóbia erősödését eredményezte. Többen is tiltakoznak ez ellen, de szeretném megismételni a tények magukért beszélnek: az illegális migráció Európában az antiszemitizmust, a nők elleni erőszakot és a homofóbia erősödését eredményezte, ha tetszik ez Önöknek, ha nem, ezek a tények. A sikertelen migrációs politika következménye is világos. Több tagállam a menekültügyi rendszerből való kimaradás lehetőségeit igyekszik megteremteni. Tisztelt Képviselőtársak! Az illegális migráció és a biztonsági félelmek a határellenőrzések tartós és kiterjedt visszaállításához vezettek. Azt hiszem, ideje ezzel a kérdéssel a legmagasabb politikai szinten foglalkozni és megvitatni, újrateremthető-e a schengeni térség valódi működtetéséhez szükséges politikai akarat. A magyar elnökség egy javaslatot tesz: hozzuk létre a "Schengen summit"-ok rendszerét. Hívjunk össze rendszeresen "Schengen summit"-okat a schengeni térség állam- és kormányfőinek részvételével. Egyszer ez már bejött. Emlékszem 2008-as gazdasági válságra adott válaszunknak fontos része volt az euróövezet vezetőinek csúcstalálkozója. Ez egy sikeres koordináció volt, amit az is jelez, hogy 2012-ben egy nemzetközi szerződéssel ezt intézményesítettük. Ez az Euró Csúcs. Úgy látom, hogy ma a schengeni övezet van hasonló válságban, ezért itt most szükség lenne egy hasonló politikai elköteleződésre, "Schengen summit"-ra és utána pedig egy nemzetközi szerződéssel történő intézményesítésre. A magyar elnökség nemcsak azt javasolja, mélyen tisztelt Elnök Asszony, hogy a schengeni térséget erősítsük meg és bővítsük ki, a magyar elnökség azt is javasolja, hogy az év vége előtt történjen meg Bulgária és Románia teljes körű csatlakozása. Tisztelt Képviselő Hölgyek és Urak! A migráció mellett Európát számos egyéb biztonsági kihívás is érinti. Ezek megvitatására november 7-én, két nappal az amerikai elnökválasztás után Budapesten összeülő Európai Politikai Közösség csúcstalálkozója alkalmas fórum lesz. Tisztelt Elnök Asszony! Szembe kell néznünk azzal a ténnyel – ha az európai biztonságról beszélünk –, hogy ma az Unió nem képes saját békéjét és biztonságát szavatolni. Szükségünk van az európai biztonság- és védelempolitika intézményesítésére. A magyar elnökség ennek egyik, talán legjobb útját az európai védelmi ipar és technológiai bázis megerősítésében látja. A magyar elnökség ezért az európai védelmi ipari stratégiára és a védelmi ipari tervre összpontosít. De a kihívás ennél azért sokrétűbb, mert érint tagállami és uniós kompetenciákat, sőt, nemzetközi szövetségesi struktúrákat is. A magyar elnökség a saját példáját, Magyarország példáját tudja felajánlani. Mi a nemzeti össztermékünk mintegy 2,5 százalékát fordítjuk védelmi kiadásokra, ennek nagy része fejlesztés. Védelmi beszerzéseink túlnyomó többsége európai védelmi ipari forrásokból származik, és a védelmi ipar valamennyi szegmensében zajlanak ipari beruházások Magyarországon európai szereplők részvételével. Ha ez lehetséges volt Magyarországon, az lehetséges az egész Európai Unióban. Tisztelt Elnök Asszony! A magyar elnökség kiemelt témája a bővítés is. Egyetértés van abban, hogy az Unió bővítéspolitikájának, érdemalapúnak, kiegyensúlyozottnak és hitelesnek kell maradnia. A magyar elnökség meggyőződése szerint a Nyugat-Balkán csatlakozásának felgyorsítása az európai biztonság kulcskérdése. A régió integrációja gazdasági, biztonsági és geopolitikai szempontból egyaránt előnyös az EU számára. Külön figyelmet kell fordítanunk Szerbiára. Szerbia felvétele nélkül a Balkán nem stabilizálható. Amíg Szerbia nem tagja az Európai Uniónak, addig a Balkán instabil térség marad. Tájékoztatom Önöket, Tisztelt Képviselő Hölgyek és Urak, hogy több tagjelölt ország is teljesíti a továbblépés technikai feltételeit, de hiányzik a tagállamok közötti politikai konszenzus. Kérem, emlékezzenek vissza arra, hogy az Unió több mint húsz éve tett egy ígéretet. Adtunk egy ígéretet a nyugat-balkáni országoknak az európai perspektívára. A magyar elnökség szerint ideje lenne az ígéretet beváltani. Amit mi tenni tudunk, hogy összehívtuk az Európai Unió–Nyugat-Balkán csúcstalálkozót, ahol előrelépést szeretnénk elérni. Engedjenek meg egy megjegyzést az európai mezőgazdaságról. Mindannyian tudjuk, hogy az európai mezőgazdaság versenyképességét a rendkívüli klimatikus körülmények, a megemelkedett költségek, és a harmadik országokból érkező import és a túlzott szabályozás jelentősen lerontotta. Ma már nem túlzás, ha azt mondom, hogy mindez az európai gazdálkodók létbiztonságát veszélyezteti. Az élelmiszer-termelés és élelmiszer-biztonság stratégiai jelentőségű kérdés minden ország számára és az Unió számára is. Ezért a magyar elnökség politikai irányt szeretne mutatni az újonnan felálló Európai Bizottságnak, egy versenyképes, válságálló és gazdabarát európai mezőgazdaság megteremtése érdekében. Tisztelt Képviselők! A magyar elnökség stratégiai vitát kezdeményezett: a mezőgazdaságon túl a kohéziós politika jövőjéről is zajlanak a viták. Bizonyára Önök is tudják, hogy az Unió lakosságának mintegy negyede olyan régiókban él, amelynek fejlettségi szintje nem éri el az uniós átlag 75%-át. Ezért Európa számára elengedhetetlen a régiók közötti fejlettségbeli különbségek csökkentése. A kohéziós politika nem jótékonyság és nem adomány, valójában az EU legnagyobb beruházási politikája, s a belső piac kiegyensúlyozott működésének előfeltétele. A magyar elnökség úgy gondolja, hogy ennek folytatása kulcsfontosságú az Európai Unió versenyképességi potenciáljának megőrzéséhez. Tisztelt Képviselők! Tisztelt Elnök Asszony! A magyar elnökség közös európai problémákra keres olyan megoldásokat, amelyek a józan ész talaján állnak. De nem csak megoldásokat keresünk. Mi, magyarok az Európai Unióban továbbra is keressük az álmainkat. A szabad és egyenlő nemzetek közösségét, a hazánk hazáját, a demokráciák demokráciáját. Keressük az Istent félő és az emberek méltóságát védelmező, a kultúra, a tudomány, a szellem csúcsait ostromló Európát. Nem azért vagyunk tagjai az Európai Uniónak, mert olyan, amilyen, hanem azért, amilyen lehetne. És amíg úgy látjuk, hogy Európát olyanná tudjuk tenni, amilyen lehetne. Amíg erre van egy fikarcnyi esély is, addig küzdeni fogunk érte. Mi a magyar elnökségben sikeres Európai Unióban vagyunk érdekeltek, s meggyőződésem szerint elnökségünk sikere az egész Európai Unió sikere lesz. Tegyük újra naggyá Európát!" (Forrás: europarl)

European Union
October 9th 2024  Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU claims to have supported Ukraine through financial and military assistance with US$121 billion. During that period, the EU has cumulated a trade deficit with Russia of the same amount. This cannot possibly be a sensible approach to support Ukraine and reduce Russia’s capacity to wage war. The EU has implemented a series of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The EU’s response to the war has been undermined by the level of trade many EU states continue to do with Russia. The EU has a cumulative merchandise trade deficit with Russia of US$120 billion since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine or 5 percent of Russia’s annual GDP – a  net transfer of resources to Russia. The EU rethoric, claims that it will 'remain determined to keep acting to further reduce Russia’s sources of revenue and capacity to wage war'. The EU’s approach to Russia is self-defeating and risks prolonging the war. Russia’s foreign exchange reserves had been frozen in March 2022. Russia’s economy has been doing relatively well. International banks show an increase in cross-border liabilities vis-à-vis residents of Russia from US$155 billion in March 2022 to US$254 billion in March 2024. It took one year to decline from a post-pandemic peak deficit of US$19.5 billion in March 2022 to a surplus of US$0.7 billion in March 2023. In January-May 2024, the average trade deficit with Russia of Hungary was still US$0.3 billion and of Slovakia US$0.4 billion per month. EU cumulative mineral fuel imports from Russia since March 2022 through May 2024 amount to US$166 billion. They fell from an average of US$10.6 billion per month during January-May 2019 to US$2.0 billion per month or 19 percent of their pre-war level. Belgium still imports 54 percent of its pre-war level, Spain 58 percent, the Czech Republic 77 percent, Slovakia 88 percent, Hungary 138 percent and  Germany 1 percent of its pre-war level. Russian gas still enjoys high imports at 83 percent of pre-war levels. In January-May 2024, Belgium and the Netherlands were importing more than two times more Russian gas than prior to the war and Spain seven times. Hungary, the largest importer of Russian gas in the EU, imported nearly double the amount in January-May 2024 compared with January-May 2019. India increased mineral fuel imports from Russia during January and May 2019 from an average of US$0.3 billion per month to US$3.9 billion per month during January and May 2024. (Source: blog-lse)
by Mandeng, Director of Economics Advisory Ltd and a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Ukraine
October 9, 2024  The Ukrainian military has received Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) protective gear from the United States and NATO. 'Putin's forces have broken international law by using chemical weapons in Ukraine, and the UK is taking action with sanctions. The UK’s Ministry of Defense has already provided protective equipment and decontamination kits to boost Ukraine’s protective capabilities,' the British Ministry of Defense announced. 'Russian units have widely used riot control agents and chloropicrin, a toxic choking agent first deployed in the trenches of World War One, against Ukrainian troops'. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Atlamazoglou

Europe
9th October 2024  Islamic sectarianism is surging across Europe, parties are emerging that campaign on anti-Zionist, if not outright Islamist, agendas. In parts of Western Europe, voices are warning of resurgence of sectarian politics - new political parties are pushing a sinister combination of anti-Israel activism and Muslim identity politics. The FPP’s performance in the recent EU elections was relatively small and not a single candidate from any of the parties won a seat in the European Parliament. The extra-parliamentary influence of its members should not be underestimated.       A newly formed European coalition called the Free Palestine Party (FPP) is the latest attempt to mobilise voters through anti-Israel sentiment and Muslim identity politics. The FPP unveiled its platform earlier this year, in time for the 2024 EU parliamentary elections. It launched in Brussels, a city that is home to an abundance of radical Muslim organisations. Brussels serves as the base for the Belgian Muslim political party, Team Fouad Ahidar (TFA), which is also a member of the FPP coalition. In November last year, shortly after the 7 October pogrom, TFA leader, the eponymous Ahidar, downplayed the atrocities as a ‘small response from one faction of Hamas to Israel’s actions’ in Palestine. He has also referred to Jews as ‘psychopaths’ and accused Israel of committing ‘genocide’. Several Jewish organisations have filed lawsuits against him. Despite only being founded in February of this year, TFA secured an impressive 16.5 per cent of Flemish votes in the latest regional elections in June. It placed second and won three seats in the Brussels parliament. According to liberal MP Vanhengel, TFA ‘focusses heavily on Sharia’.      The French Union des Démocrates Musulmans Français (UDMF) is considered the founder of the FPP alliance and positions itself as an Islamic counterpart to traditional Christian Democratic platforms. Some party members have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, the most important and influential Islamist organisation in the world. UDMF’s involvement in pro-Gaza demonstrations, where anti-Israel and anti-Semitic slogans have been chanted, has drawn scrutiny in France.      The FPP’s party in Germany, the Alliance for Innovation and Justice (BIG), is considered an offshoot of Erdoğan’s AK Party. Wilbert, a member of BIG’s executive board, has acted as a keynote speaker at several Al-Quds Day demonstrations. These were first established in 1979 by Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini to rally the Islamic world for the ‘liberation’ of Jerusalem. BIG’s deputy chairman, Misirlioglu, is also active with Inssan and Islamic Relief Germany, two groups that have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Islamic Relief has even been banned in Israel for supporting Hamas, although in Germany it is regarded as a benign humanitarian organisation.      In the Netherlands, fellow FPP member NIDA (Arabic for ‘call’) party platform combines Islamism with woke and green ideology, calling for blasphemy laws and the right for public servants to wear religious symbols, as well as championing universal basic income and diversity. NIDA’s leader, El Ouali, is known to have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and its Palestinian offshoot, Hamas, as well as to the Union of Turkish Democrats, a European branch of Turkey’s governing Justice and Development (AK) Party.      The Spanish FPP party, the ‘Islamic-Humanist’ Andalusi Party's manifesto frequently emphasises multiculturalism and argues that the ‘Western way’ is no longer sustainable. Its Facebook page is filled with radically anti-Israel content. In a recent interview with online magazine Hyphen, party leader  Amar said: ‘Western countries advocate a two-state solution, but we believe the state of Israel is not legitimate and should therefore not exist.’      In the United Kingdom General Election in July, around the country, a sizeable number of candidates ran on a pro-Palestinian platform. In some areas, campaigns were run on strictly religious lines, with groups like The Muslim Vote encouraging British Muslims to only use their votes on pro-Palestine candidates. The group had some big successes, with five ‘pro-Gaza independents’ now sitting in parliament – four of which managed to unseat incumbent Labour MPs.      A year after the 7 October pogrom, anti-Israel demonstrations and campus protests still persist across London, Brussels and Berlin. Tying a ‘pro-Palestine’, and even explicitly Islamist cause, with woke social-justice issues and climate change could be a winning strategy for the FPP in future. Large sections of the left are increasingly positioning themselves as defenders of radical Islam, while the political establishment is either unwilling or unable to confront the new wave of anti-Semitism. We are witnessing the early stages of something deeply sinister. (Source: spiked-online)
by Feldon, a journalist, author and translator in Berlin. His book: Interregnum: Was kommt nach der liberalen Demokratie.

.4 10 25 01:33

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Europe

Russia
October 7, 2024   A German-made Leopard 2A6 main battle tank (MBT) recently captured by Russian forces in Ukraine has been delivered to the Uralvagonzavod plant in Russia, where it will undergo detailed examination. Russia may learn some secrets about the Leopard 2, but the U.S. has been closely studying the T-90 MBT as well. (Source: nationalinterest)

North America

United States
Monday, October 7, 2024  The United States has spent at least $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel since the war in Gaza began, according to a report for Brown University’s Costs of War project, released today. An additional $4.86bn has gone into stepped-up US military operations in the region since the October 7 attacks, researchers said in their findings. (Source: morningstaronline)

Oct 7, 2024, 11:49am EDT  The America PAC, the pro-Trump group largely funded by Musk, yesterday shared the petition that asks signatories to "pledge support" for the First and Second Amendments but does not make any other call to action - other than promising to pay those who successfully share the petition with registered swing state voters. Musk yesterday said the goal of the petition is to get 1 million swing state voters to sign on. (Source: forbes)

.4 10 29 00:15

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Europe

Hungary
11.10.2024  This year marks the centennial of the Turkish-Hungarian Friendship Treaty, The 1923 agreement was elevated to a strategic partnership in 2013 and to an "enhanced strategic partnership" last year, encompassing cooperation across all sectors. Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Bayraktar met with Szijjártó, Hungarian minister of foreign affairs and trade, during the St. Petersburg International Gas Forum in Russia yesterday. Following the meeting, Bayraktar said on X: "We reiterated our commitment to maintaining and expanding our successful natural gas exports to Hungary in the near future." Hungary is keen to expand bilateral energy cooperation with Ankara, recognizing the crucial role Türkiye's natural gas supply plays in bolstering its energy security, Ambassador Matis, the Hungarian envoy in Ankara told. He said the bilateral agreement between Türkiye and Hungary "is a good start," referring to a 2023 deal between Turkish Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAS) and the Hungarian MVM CEEnergy company under which Ankara began exporting natural gas to Budapest. "2023-2024 have been the most active years in our energy sector over the past decade." "We are ready to continue cooperation in natural gas. This could be gas known as 'Turkish Blend' or LNG," Matis said. "Türkiye is now the most important transit route for our energy security due to the Russia-Ukraine war," he said. Highlighting a potential for cooperation in nuclear energy, Matis said that Hungary's Paks Nuclear Power Plant shares the same technical specifications as Türkiye's Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant which is currently under construction. He emphasized Hungary's extensive experience in operating nuclear power plants, expressing a willingness to share knowledge and expertise with its Turkish counterparts. The ambassador highlighted the importance of renewable energy sources, such as geothermal and solar power, for Hungary. "Turkish companies are active in Hungary's renewable energy sector and are performing exceptionally well," he said. The ambassador highlighted the significant growth in bilateral trade between Türkiye and Hungary, from $2 billion in 2013 to approximately $4.3 billion in 2023. He emphasized that reaching $6 billion in bilateral trade is merely a stepping stone. He expressed the ambition to further elevate the economic relationship, aiming to achieve a trade volume of $10 billion and strengthening the collaboration even further. New infrastructure has been established to support growth, including the launch of a Turkish public bank in Hungary and visa assistance for Turkish entrepreneurs. "We actively support Turkish companies considering investments in Hungary," he said, adding they are working closely with the Hungarian Investment Promotion Agency to offer support and facilitate their entry into the Hungarian market. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

France
11 October 2024  Hurricane Kirk remnants reach France, leaving at least one dead.  /Video/ (Source: France 24 / youtube - U.S.)
Note: 6 898 views

Poland
Oct 11, 2024 at 2:02 PM EDT  Poland's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sikorski, said yesterday: 'I'd like you to know Starlink units in Ukraine are not funded by Mr. Musk. 'They have been, are and will be funded exclusively by Poland. We do it, nobody else does it. And it's a factor in Ukraine being able to continue fighting.' Sikorski's statements were made on Polish news channel Polsat News. Sikorski said that Starlink is an important factor in Ukraine's defense, as the access to the internet that it supplies is secure and cannot be meddled with. Poland is spending a record amount on defense, up to $48.5 billion. Sikorski's comments counter previous Newsweek reporting, which has said that Starlink in Ukraine is supplied by a $23 million SpaceX contract with the Pentagon. A U.S. Space Force spokesperson spoke to Newsweek about these claims saying: 'The Space Force has a contract to provide Starlink services in Ukraine through November 30, 2024, for a total obligated amount of $40,610,000.00.' Newsweek has contacted the Polish government via email for comment. (Source: Newsweek - U.S.)

European Commission
11/10/2024 18:14  Brussels floats plan to bypass Hungary's long-held veto on €6.6 billion military assistance for Ukraine. A proposed reform - still in the very early stages, - of the European Peace Facility would allow member states to make financial contributions to the EPF on a voluntary basis, rather than a mandatory one. Would it be acceptable for Budapest, as it would relieve the country from chipping into the common fund?. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly decried the EU's provisions of military equipment as a "pro-war policy." The switch in contribution to the EPF would require the unanimous support of all 27 member states. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France / AP - U.S.)

Albania
11/10/2024 - 20:12 GMT+2  The centres built by the Italian government in Albania are ready to host migrants rescued by Italian ships in the Mediterranean Sea, eleven months after the agreement between the two countries was signed. Up to 400 people will initially be transported to the coastal Albanian town of Shengjin. The entire centre of Gjadër is in fact a place of forced detention, fenced off and monitored by Italian police officers. Here, a centre ran by Italian staff has been set up. Interpreters, medicals visits and the possibility of applying for asylum are guaranteed. The main section is meant to house asylum seekers while their requests are being processed. Applications must be completed within 28 days, according to the accelerated procedure foreseen in Italian law. During this time, applicants will be able to meet lawyers and staff from international organizations. Those who are not entitled to asylum will end up in another part of the camp. If the capacity is exceeded the migrants will be transferred to Italy before being repatriated to their countries of origin. There is a prison, with a capacity of 20 places, for migrants who commit crimes. Asylum seekers who have their request accepted will be transferred to Italy with a residence permit. Those who receive a refusal will be repatriated, always at the expense and under the responsibility of Italy. Tens of millions of euros have been spent to build these structures, but the authorities are not able to quantify the overall cost of the procedures for the five-year duration of the agreement between Italy and Albania. /Photo/ (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

United Kingdom
Fri 11 Oct 2024 03.30 CEST  Zelenskyy, Keir Starmer and Nato chief Rutte meet in London on Thursday. Rutte said Ukraine’s request to use long-range missiles against Russia was discussed, ‘but in the end it is up to the individual allies.’ Starmer’s spokesperson said there had been no change to the UK government’s position on the use of long-range missiles. (Source: The Guardian - United Kingdom)

Asia

China
October 11, 2024 14:59  Recently, the U.S. made an announcement on providing substantial military assistance to China’s Taiwan region. Decree of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China No.13: Decision on taking countermeasures against U.S. military companies and senior executives. (Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC)

Iran
October 11, 2024 • 11:18 am ET  Iran will need to think carefully about whether it is suitable to create another direct confrontation with Israel, which might also lead it to a direct confrontation with the United States. However, it can potentially balance the deterrence equation vis-à-vis Israel by pursuing a nuclear deal that will end the current escalation and reduce the risks of direct confrontation with Israel, creating a possible wedge between the United States and Israel and buying Iran time to think about its national security. If Iran decides to go down this path, it must consider that there will be a new US administration in January, which presumably will continue to support Israel but, on the other hand, might be interested in a deal to prevent a regional war. (Source: Atlantic Council - U.S.)
by Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies

North Korea
October 11, 2024  What should the United States do? Given the differences in the objectives of Russia, China, and North Korea, the United States should be mounting major information operations against these three countries to highlight their differences and fuel distrust among them. Doing so would increase the likelihood of decoupling at least some of their partnerships. Some examples of potential information operations seem obvious. With China, it is important to publicly declare that China seeks dominance in Northeast Asia and beyond. The United States should call attention to how North Korea’s close cooperation with Russia defies Chinese dominance, making China unhappy. In addition, North Korea regularly threatens to use nuclear weapons, which could ignite a nuclear war in the region. This is likely why Chinese leader Xi has said that he will not permit war or chaos on the Korean Peninsula. Information operations could sensitize the Chinese leaders and people to these threats, inducing China to pressure North Korea to rein in its nuclear weapon production, its provocations, and its threats to use nuclear weapons. Information operations are also possible against Russia and North Korea. For example, media stories could tell the Russian people that North Korea has sent a significant number of dilapidated artillery and other munitions to Russia that have been causing Russian casualties. While the North Korean elites have likely been reassured by the food and economic resources that Russia has been providing, the media could explain that North Korea has been apparently exhausting its available munitions supplies such that Russian payments to North Korea will likely be declining significantly in the coming year. In addition, the United States should recognize that North Korean military advisors are supporting Russian use of North Korean military supplies in occupied areas of Ukraine. The North Korean regime has likely only sent elite North Korean personnel to perform such functions, fearing that other North Koreans would probably defect to the West. It has been reported that six officers from this group were killed in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, a message that will likely anger their families in Pyongyang and thus should also be broadcast into North Korea. The South Korean Defense Minister has said that North Korea will likely send more of its troops to support Russia, probably on the battlefield. Given Russian attitudes, those troops may well serve as cannon fodder. The North Korean elites need to hear what Kim may do to their sons. Also, North Korean military life supporting the Russian military in captured Ukrainian territory is likely not very good. Russian treatment may make many of those North Korean soldiers receptive to psychological operations against the North Korean regime, an opportunity that should not be missed. This new cooperation between Russia and North Korea is hardly a signal of a budding long-term alliance and U.S. information campaigns could help speed its demise. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Bennett

Turkey
October 11, 2024 at 4:15 pm  Recently, Turkiye has shown willingness to be part of BRICS, a second plea for inclusion in Sino-Russian forums. The first was made a few months ago, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) annual meet-up. Ankara became the first NATO ally to bid for BRICS and the bloc is expected to assess the request in its October summit in Russia. BRICS would significantly jeopardise Ankara’s current role in NATO and it could lose its membership in the transatlantic alliance, as Turkiye would slide from being an ally to a threat for NATO. (Source: Middle East Monitor - United Kingdom

North America

United States
10/11/2024 7:29 PM   Milley, a decorated military officer became a target for right-wing scorn after it became known that he expressed concerns over Trump’s mental stability in the wake of his 2020 election loss to Biden. He is described by journalist Woodward in his new book, 'War', with October 15 release date, as incredibly alarmed at the prospect of a second Trump term in the White House. In the wake of the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, Woodward writes, Milley insisted on securing a meeting with the then-newly-minted attorney general, Garland, to urge him to investigate domestic violent extremism and 'far-right' militia movements. Milley’s sit-down with Garland might have been the first-ever meeting between a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the country’s top civilian law enforcement official. Milley, the US Army general who Trump appointed as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 2019, had been a source for Woodward’s last book, 'Peril'. At a March 2023 meeting at the Willard Hotel in Washington, DC he told the journalist that 'no one has ever been as dangerous to this country' as the former president. The general’s private comments to Woodward, which have not been previously reported, were echoed in cutting remarks Milley made publicly at his September 2023 retirement ceremony. In the speech, he said the US military is 'unique' among the world’s fighting forces because it does not profess fealty to any one person. Apparently referencing Trump, he added: “And we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator! (Source: msn / The Independent - United Kingdom)

NATO

11 October 2024 22:30 (UTC+04:00)  NATO will begin its annual Steadfast Noon nuclear exercises on Monday, October 14, with more than 60 aircraft taking part in them, which will carry out training flights over Western Europe. Steadfast Noon will last two weeks, they will involve fighters capable of carrying American nuclear warheads, but combat weapons will not be used. This is an important test of the alliance's nuclear deterrence, according to Alliance Secretary General Rutte. Steadfast Noon employs 2,000 military personnel from 8 air bases and various types of aircraft, including nuclear-armed aircraft, bombers, escort fighters, tanker aircraft and aircraft capable of conducting reconnaissance and electronic warfare. (Source: Azernews - Azerbaijan)

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Magyarország
(Péntek), 2024.10.11. 07:47  Az Európai Bizottság és az Európai Néppárt vezetője, Der Leyen és Weber meg akarja buktatni a szuverenista magyar kormányt, és a helyére egy brüsszelita kormányt akar ültetni – jelentette ki Orbán Viktor miniszterelnök ma a Kossuth Rádió Jó reggelt, Magyarország! című műsorában. A magyar uniós elnökség szerdai európai parlamenti programismertetőjét követő vitát úgy értékelte, hogy az a tényeket mellőzte, gyűlölködő volt, és nem törődött Európával, az európai emberekkel, csak a támadás jellemezte. A kormányfő azt mondta, a vita arról szólt, hogy meg akarják buktatni a magyar kormányt, és a helyére az európai szocialisták Dobrevet, a néppárt pedig a Tisza Pártot Magyarral akarja kormányon. Hozzátette, eddig is úgy gondolta, hogy a két európai vezetőnek ez a célja, de az szokatlan, hogy ezt ilyen nyíltan belevágják a világ képébe, ahelyett, hogy európai ügyekkel foglalkoznának. Világossá tették, hogy ez az a koalíció, amit szeretnének, és amelynek a házassága meg is történt a szemünk előtt. Celebrálta papként vagy anyakönyvvezetőként Der Leyen, Weber volt a tanú. Hozzátette, a két érintett fél meg is mondta, készen áll arra, hogy teljesítse, amit Brüsszel követel: Magyarország beszáll a háborúba Ukrajnával, fegyvert szállít és pénzt ad a magyar költségvetésből; támogatják a brüsszeli migrációs politikát, vagyis be kell engedni a migránsokat; a család- és a gyermekvédelmi törvényeket el kell törölni, és bele kell szállni a gazdasági, kereskedelmi háborúba. Orbán Viktor úgy fogalmazott: ’Be akar delegálni Brüsszel a leendő magyar kormányba egy szocialistát meg egy néppártit, akik majd támogatni fogják a legfontosabb brüsszeli célkitűzéseket, amelyek éppen a konfliktusokat okozzák Magyarország és Brüsszel között. Vége a szuverenista magyar politikának, brüsszelita kormányunk lesz.’ A magyar uniós elnökségi programot a kormányfő átgondoltnak, nagyon színvonalasnak, kiváló szakmai munkának nevezte. Elmondta, hogy nagyon jó stáb dolgozik Bóka európai uniós ügyekért felelős miniszter vezetésével. Hozzátette: elég színvonalas vitát tudtak volna tartani az Európai Parlamentben arról, miért van bajban az európai gazdaság, miért mennek el Európa mellett az amerikaiak és a kínaiak. Itt a baj a migránsokkal, baj van a zöld átmenettel – sorolta a problémákat. A kormányfő azt mondta, akik a vitában részt vettek, 'vérgőzös állapotban voltak', nem akartak higgadt, nyugodt, értelmes vitát folytatni az Európa előtt álló legnagyobb kihívásokról, hanem politikai pofozkodást, balhét, csihi-puhit képzeltek el, és ’nekünk rontottak’. 'Amikor tízen jönnek az emberre, az a rock and roll, szóval rock and roll volt' – fogalmazott Orbán Viktor. Közölte, nehéz helyzetben volt, mert a magyar mégis egy udvarias, nagyvonalú, jól nevelt nép, de „annyian jöttek és olyan durván', hogy attól tartott, ha továbbra is úriembereskedik, akkor ’baleknak néznek bennünket’. Ezért döntött úgy, hogy a vitába bele kell állni: 'amilyen az adjonisten, olyan a fogadjisten”, mindenki megkapta, amit kellett, 'néhány lángos, tasli az ott le is esett” – mondta. A miniszterelnök azt mondta, megdöbbenve lehettek a vita miatt a magyar nézők is, akiknek egész más kép élhet a fejükben Európáról. „Mi azt hittük, hogy ott intelligens emberek vannak” – mondta, úgy folytatva, azt hitték, bár van néhány érdekes alak az európai parlamenti képviselők között, mégis valami európai színvonalat képviselnek. Orbán Viktor úgy összegezte a vitát, hogy ’a béka feneke alatt volt az egész’, és az számára is kultúrsokk volt. Kijelentette: a magyarok maguk akarják eldönteni, milyen program mentén milyen kormányunk legyen. Az nem megy, hogy Brüsszelből megmondják nekünk, hogyan éljünk, és ideküldik nekünk a zsoldosaikat, akik majd ezt végrehajtják – közölte, hozzátéve: ez már volt, hogy kívülről akarták megmondani nekünk, hogyan éljünk, ettől szabadultunk meg 30 éve. A Brüsszelből Magyarországra delegálandó, ’brüsszelita kormány ugyanolyan hónaljszagú’, mint a szocializmus és a Szovjetunió – értékelt. Elmondása szerint ezért bejelentette az ellenállást: Magyarország szembe fog szállni ezzel a brüsszeli tervvel. Várakozásai szerint Brüsszelben ezt el fogják fogadni, mert látni fogják, hogy ezen a csatán rajtavesztenek. A nyilvánosság, a tények, az őszinteség az ilyen típusú brüsszelita szándékoknak nem kedvez – jegyezte meg. „A mi legnagyobb szövetségesünk a valóság és a nyilvánosság, és én nyíltan fogok beszélni, ha megtámadnak (…), előveszem a tényeket, és megmondom: ti kereskedtek az oroszokkal” – fogalmazott. Orbán Viktor szerint ezért Brüsszelben is rájönnek, ez nem jó üzlet, térjünk vissza a normális európai politikához, hagyjuk békén a tagállamokat, hagyjuk békén Magyarországot. A magyar uniós elnökség javaslatai közül kiemelte: Magyarország a 2008-as pénzügyi válság következményeit kezelő csúcshoz hasonló megoldással a határvédelem és a migráció ügyében azt szorgalmazza, hogy a schengeni zóna országai a legmagasabb szinten találkozzanak, először informálisan, aztán intézményesítve. Hozzátette: az Európai Bizottságot kihagyva, ezen a fórumon döntenének a határvédelem ügyéről és arról is, hogyan ne engedjék be a migránsokat, illetve hogyan ellenőrizzék őket. Szerinte e testület alá kell berendelni az európai határvédelemért felelős Frontex-et, amely jelenleg a migránsokat befelé szállító 'turisztikai egyesületként' működik. Úgy értékelt: Európa fordul. Kell még egy kis idő, és be fognak állni egy migrációellenes politikai vonalra, ugyanis Nyugat-Európában az emberek egyáltalán nem örülnek annak, ami a migráció kapcsán történik, a migrációba belebuknak kormányok. A miniszterelnök arról is beszélt: csekély esély van közös uniós kiútra a versenyképességi csapdából, nagyon távol vannak az álláspontok, ezért Magyarországnak nem is Európával, hanem magával kell foglalkoznia, hiába adjuk mi az uniós elnökséget. Hozzátette, hetek óta csak a magyar gazdaság kérdéseivel foglalkozik, a brüsszeli 'keresztre feszítési kísérlet az kitérő volt”. Mi összeraktuk az első nagy akciótervet, amellyel a magyar gazdaságnak fogunk új lendületet adni – jelentette ki, hozzátéve, csütörtökön a gazdasági kabinet vezetőjével tekintette át az elgondolásokat, körvonalazódnak az intézkedések, amelyek közül a megfizethető lakhatás megteremtését, a bérek emelését és a kisvállalkozások „méretnövekedésének” elősegítését emelte ki. Óriási lendületet adunk a magyar gazdaságnak, mindegy, mit mond Európa, mi fenntartjuk a gazdasági semlegességet, tehát nyugatról is, meg keletről is csak azt fogadjuk el, ami jó a magyaroknak, és ami ellentétes az érdekeinkkel, azt el fogjuk utasítani – jelentette ki Orbán Viktor, hozzátéve, hogy ez 3-6 százalékos gazdasági növekedést fog eredményezni, ami már a jövő évben érezhető lesz. Az idei két utolsó negyedév növekedése a kormányfő szerint valahol az egy és a két százalék között lesz, de jövőre óriási lendületet fogunk venni. Három beavatkozási pontot nevezett meg: a megfizethető lakhatás biztosítását, a béremelést és a kisvállalkozók segítését. A lakhatással kapcsolatban azt ígérte, lesz egy nagy lakásboom, ugyanakkor azt is: hátha Budapest is mond már végre valamit ebben a kérdésben, hiszen a legnagyobb baj e téren a fővárosban van. Nekünk vannak terveink, készen állunk a tárgyalásra – jelentette ki, megemlítve, az elgondolások között kollégiumépítés éppúgy szerepel, mint a fiatalok megfizethető lakhatáshoz juttatása, akár bérlés útján. Hozzátette: a kormány támogatni fogja a Magyar falu programban a falusi lakás- és házépítéseket, valamint el fogja hárítani a bürokratikus akadályokat annak útjából, hogy az emberek lakhatásuk megteremtésére használhassák fel megtakarításaikat. Jól haladnak a tárgyalások a szakszervezetekkel, úgy látom, hogy meg tudnak állapodni majd a minimálbérről és meg tudunk állapodni majd a béremelések mértékéről – fogalmazott Orbán Viktor a tervcsomag második pontjáról, kijelentve, nem tartja irreálisnak azt a célt, hogy egymillió forintos átlagkereset legyen Magyarországon. Jelezte azt is: a diákhitel mellé létrehozzák a szakmát tanulók munkáshitelét. Harmadik pontként említette, hogy méretnövekedéshez kívánják segíteni a kisvállalkozókat, „akiket meggyötört az infláció, meggyötört a háború, a szankciók, és meggyötört a Covid is”. Elmondta, a munkanevén Demján Sándor program keretében tőkét és kedvezményes hiteleket juttatnak a kis- és középvállalkozásoknak, hogy egy lépéssel stabilabbak és nagyobbak legyenek. Ezek együtt meglendítik a magyar gazdaságot, ami 2025 első és második negyedévében nagyon világosan látszik majd, úgyhogy én erre összpontosítok, aztán a brüsszeliek meg egyék meg, amit főztek – jegyezte meg. A felsorolt intézkedések megvalósításához szerinte a magyar gazdaság saját belső növekedéséből kell kitermelni a forrásokat úgy, hogy közben az államadósságot is és a költségvetési hiányt is csökkenteni kell. „Ez lehetséges. Ezt kiszámoltuk, ezt megterveztük, ez jól halad” – mondta, jelezve, hogy a gazdasági miniszter tegnap bemutatta a számokat, a trendeket, az egész elgondolást, ennek alapján hamarosan egy általános kormányhatározat jelenik meg, ami feladatokat ad ki, rá egy-két hétre pedig a konkrét intézkedések is jöhetnek. Hozzátette: a kormánynak konzultálnia kell az érdekképviseletekkel, a gazdasági élet szereplőivel, aztán végső soron majd az emberekkel is meg kell beszélniük ezeket az intézkedéseket. „Egyfajta új egyezséget szeretnénk létrehozni ahhoz, hogy a magyar gazdaság lendületet vegyen”, hiszen ha új gazdaságpolitika kell – márpedig a világ változása miatt nekünk is alkalmazkodnunk kell –, ahhoz kell egy új egyezség is – fogalmazott. Orbán Viktor a szeptemberi fogyasztási adatot biztatónak nevezte, és szerinte a majdnem 10 százalékos magyar reálbér-növekedés Európában is példátlan. Ugyanakkor arra a felvetésre, hogy a reálbér-növekedés ellenére lassabban indul be a fogyasztás, azt mondta: a fogyasztásról szóló vitát nem tartja egészségesnek, szerinte az emberek majd eldöntik, mit akarnak csinálni a pénzükkel. Úgy vélte: a gondot szerinte nem ez, hanem az európai járműipar termelésének lelassulása okozza, Magyarország ugyanis járműipari nagyhatalom, egyike annak a három országnak – Németország és Kína mellett –, ahol a nagy német autómárkák mindegyike jelen van. Szerinte ugyanakkor a következő év második felében újra lendületet kap a magyar gépjárműgyártás, amint a világpiac is úgy alakul, hogy ezekre az autókra szükség lesz. Ezért – folytatta – meri vállalni azt, hogy a következő évben a 3–6 százalék közötti sávba emeli a kormány a gazdasági növekedést. Kérdésre válaszolva úgy fogalmazott: „fényesek” a magyar gazdaság hosszabb távú kilátásai. (Forrás: Híradó / Kossuth Rádió – Magyarország)

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Black Sea

October 2, 2024  Ukraine has made significant strategic gains in the Black Sea and views the region as a growing area of focus. Despite not having a sizable surface fleet, Ukraine has been able to effectively combat the Russian navy’s ships to the point where the Russian Black Sea fleet moved ships away from Crimea for safety, allowing more secure passage of grain shipments. With recent Western aid packages to Ukraine lessening in frequency, more funds and attention should be paid to supporting this theater where Ukraine has proven especially effective. ’Bolstering Ukraine’s capabilities in the Black Sea will provide a better bargaining chip at the negotiating table”. In addition, western navies should take note to learn from Russia's shortcomings and Ukraine's successes in the Black Sea. Drawing on its strikes on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet that have forced the end of the Russian blockade, Ukraine has begun using its southern ports to send grain ships along the coastline of Romania and Bulgaria, where the relatively shallow waters prohibit Russian submarine operations. (Source: wilsoncenter *)
* The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Washington, D.C.–based think tank.
by Kornegay, Jr. & Toftner

Europe

Hungary
October 2, 2024 4:55 pm CET  Ongoing dispute around Erasmus student exchanges with Brussels. September marked the beginning of the first academic year in which students from Hungarian public foundation universities could no longer participate in Erasmus student exchanges. Hungary has proposed a new draft law that it hopes will resolve its ongoing dispute around Erasmus student exchanges with Brussels by banning ministers, MPs and mayors from top positions in public university. The bill was published Tuesday and has now been submitted for public consultation. Budapest hopes the move will allow the affected universities to regain Erasmus and Horizon funding. In early 2023, twenty one Hungarian universities were blocked from signing new EU grants because they were on the boards filled by people from Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party. When the news broke, all the ministers who held positions in the trusts resigned from their university posts, but other ruling party politicians stayed on. Navracsics, the minister who led earlier negotiations with the Commission, told in January 2024 that the negotiations had reached a ’dead end’ and claimed that the European Parliament was blackmailing the Commission to reach a consensus on the issue. The ban had led to complaints in 2023 about the loss of millions of euros for universities 'which were not excluded from Horizon Europe research partnerships - they could only participate in them without EU funding'. Despite the government’s openness and initiatives, the European Commission ’has refused to act on the matter for almost a year,’ the ministry said in a statement. (Source: politico)
by Körömi

October 02, 2024 09:18  The fact that Israel is a prosperous, successful state incites a fit of rage in many people, said Szánthó, director general of the Center for Fundamental Rights, during a speech at the center’s conference in Budapest. The director also mentioned Trump, calling him a strong leader and saying that had he been president of the U.S., the massacre on Oct. 7 would not have occurred. (Source: Remix)

France
02.10.2024  France urges nationals in Iran to leave 'as soon as possible' (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

02/10/24 | 12:46 pm  “Committed to Israel’s security, France today mobilised its military resources in the Middle East to counter the Iranian threat,” the French presidency said in a statement overnight after an emergency security cabinet meeting to discuss the regional escalation. “The head of state also reiterated France’s demand that Hezbollah cease its terrorist actions against Israel and its population.” The foreign ministry said it had convened a U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss the situation in the Middle East on Wednesday afternoon. The French presidency said it would also organise soon a conference in support of Lebanon. Iran said early on Wednesday that its missile attack on Israel was finished barring further provocation, while Israel and the U.S. promised to retaliate against Tehran’s assault as fears of a wider war intensified. (Source: DD News – India)

Russia
October 2, 2024 5:52 pm CET  Russia captures key Ukrainian town in Donetsk region. Bielieskov, a research fellow at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, said that after Vuhledar the Russians will concentrate on Kurakhove, which opens another entryway for them to attack Pokrovsk, a strategically important city for the Ukrainian army's logistics in the region. (Source: Politico – U.S.)

Ukraine
(2 October 2024 19:46 CEST)  Ukraine’s troops pull back from key eastern town of Vuhledar /Photo/ (Source: Independent – United Kingdom)

United Kingdom
02/10/2024 - 9:29 GMT+2  US State Department Spokesman Miller said its partners assisted Israel and Washington in countering Iran's latest missile strike on Israel. He told reporters that it would allow them to comment on their own. So far, the UK's Defence Secretary Healey has acknowledged his country's forces were involved. Netanyahu has promised a severe response to a 180-missile barrage, but what form it will take is as yet unclear. /Video, photo/ (Source: Euronews – Headquarters Lyon)

 Council of Europe

02.10.2024  WikiLeaks founder Assange declared 'political prisoner' by Council of Europe. A motion, which called attention to Assange’s ongoing detention and the punitive actions he has faced, was passed with 88 votes in favor, 13 votes against, and 20 abstentions. It emphasized that a free press is crucial to the functioning of democratic states, and welcomed the release of Assange, recognizing his role in exposing information that highlighted potential human rights violations and war crimes. The motion criticized UK authorities for their failure to protect Assange’s freedom of expression, and urged the US to reform its espionage laws, which have led to severe charges against the journalist and publisher. Assange has doggedly opposed extradition to the US and spent seven years in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London in a bid to prevent the handover. He was ejected from the diplomatic compound in 2019 and has spent the last five years in a British prison as he fought an extradition order to the US.
 He was freed after formally accepting a plea deal in a federal court on the Northern Mariana Islands, a remote US territory in the western Pacific, that saw him plead guilty to a felony charge of violating the Espionage Act related to his publication of military and diplomatic documents. He then flew on to his native Australia where he was greeted by his wife, Stella. The Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe (PACE) called on the US to carry out an impartial investigation into the allegations WikiLeaks revealed, including those related to human rights abuses. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Asia

Iran
(2024. okt. 2.) 11:36 CEST)  IRGC Commander-In-Chief orders attack on Israel /video/ (Source: CRUX (YouTube) – India)
Note: 26 866 views on Oct. 2

(Wednesday) Oct 2, 2024, 10:32 AM  Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Araghchi said on Wednesday morning that last night a warning message regarding the ’retaliatory attack on occupied Palestine’ was sent to the US through the Swiss embassy in Tehran. Answering a question on whether Iran informed the US before launching the attack, he said, "No, I do not confirm." "First, exchanging messages does not mean coordination. No messages were exchanged, but logically, after the attack, it is necessary to give our warnings to all parties, including the Americans, and this has been done." "The warning that I mentioned last night was correctly and precisely given to the Swiss embassy to convey to the Americans, and the main point of it was that this was our defense action, which was carried out according to Article 51 of the Charter, and it was our right to defend ourselves, and our operation was carried out. And we do not intend to continue unless the other parties respond." Araghchi added that in the message, Iran also warned the US to not interfere, ’otherwise, they would face a tough response from Iran’. (Source: Mehr - Iran)

Oct 2, 2024, 9:40 AM  Which missiles Iran used in its retaliatory attack on Israel /Photo/ (Source: Mehr – Iran)

Oct 2, 2024, 7:08 AM  On September 23, Israel started a military operation codenamed Northern Arrows against Hezbollah in Lebanon, carrying out widespread strikes on the Arab country. In a strike on September 27, Israel assassinated Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah in Beirut. ’Hezbollah confirmed his martyrdom and vowed to continue standing up to Israel’.  On October 1, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out a massive attack on Israel with ballistic and hypersonic missiles. An air raid alert was issued throughout the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories, and people were ordered to take shelter. The IRGC said 90% of the missiles successfully hit their designated targets. ’The operation came in response to the regime’s assassinations of Hamas’ chief IHaniyeh, Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah, and IRGC commander Nilforooshan’."A complete failure of the Biden administration in the Middle East. A bloody drama that is only gaining momentum. The White House's inarticulate statements demonstrate complete helplessness in resolving crises. The efforts of [US Secretary of State] Blinken have led to tens of thousands of victims and a stalemate,’ Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Zakharova wrote on Telegram, TASS reported. (Source: Mehr – Iran)

"October 2, 2024"  The top Iranian diplomat held phone conversations with Lammy, Baerbock, and Séjourné, the foreign ministers of the UK, Germany, France, and several other countries, regarding Iran’s missile strikes on Israeli-occupied territories and the ongoing tensions in Gaza and Lebanon. Araghchi reiterated his call for all countries to work toward establishing a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. (Source: Iran Front Page – Iran)

Israel
12:29 ET, Oct 2 2024  Israel ‘preparing to target Iran’s oil fields in revenge attack’. Tel Aviv vowed a ’significant retaliation’ to Iran's over 180 missile blitz. /Video, photo, map/ (Source: The U.S. Sun)

Lebanon
October 02, 2024 2:59 AM  Lebanese health officials said Thursday an Israeli airstrike hit an apartment building in Beirut, killing at least six people and wounding seven others. Israel’s military said Thursday its airstrikes targeted 200 militant targets in Lebanon, including a building in Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon that Hezbollah used to store weapons. That strike killed about 15 militants, Israel said. Israel announced Wednesday the death of eight of its soldiers who were killed in fighting with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, a day after it started what it says is a “limited” ground operation to destroy militant infrastructure there. (Source: Voice of America – U.S.)

Nepal
2 Oct 2024 07:20 AM (GMT)  More than 200 killed - devastating floods in Nepal. /Video/ (Source: Al Jazeera – Qatar)

Palestine
02 October 2024 (9:14 AM)  US announces $336 million in additional  humanitarian assistance to support Palestinians in Gaza, West Bank. It will enable USAID partners to continue providing life-saving humanitarian aid, including vital food assistance, expanded support in emergency health care, nutrition, psychosocial services, and increased access to safe drinking water, hygiene products, and sanitation services. This funding will also support emergency shelter assistance to displaced Gazans to help them prepare for the upcoming winter months, It brings the total US humanitarian assistance announced for the Palestinian people to over $1 billion since October 2023. (Source: Gulf Today – United Arab Emirates)

Persian Gulf

2 October 2024 9:31 AM)  Airlines in the Gulf alter routes after Iran's missile strikes at Israel (Source: TRT World  - Turkey)

Turkey
2 October 2024 11:06 am  "Whatever it does, Israel will be stopped sooner or later," Turkish president Erdogan had said speaking at the opening sessions of the Turkish Parliament.."The UN General Assembly should rapidly implement the authority to recommend the use of force, as it did with the 1950 Uniting for Peace resolution, if the Security Council can't show the necessary will," he said. The resolution allows the UNGA to step in if disagreements between the UNSC's permanent members with veto powers - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States - mean they fail to maintain international peace. Notably, the Security Council is the only body of the United Nations that can make legally binding decisions such as that of authorising use of force or imposing sanctions. (Source: Outlook India)

North America

United States
Oct 2, 2024  Two U.S. Navy destroyers launched approximately a dozen interceptors to bolster Israel’s defenses against an unprecedented missile onslaught from Iran on Tuesday. USS Cole and USS Bulkeley engaged Iranian ballistic missiles /Video/ (Source: BulgarianMilitary – Bulgaria)

October 2, 2024  ’China is ready for war’. Thanks to a crumbling defense industrial base, America is not (Foreign Affairs – U.S.)

10/02/24 1:32 PM ET  Biden opposes Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites (Source: The Hill - U.S.)

 0/02/2024  In a civil debate, Republican vice president candidate Vance sought to blame Democratic presidential nominee Harris for America's ills; Democratic candidate Walz blamed Republican former President Trump, for sowing division among Americans. /Video/ (Source: DW – Germany)

United Nations

02.10.2024  UN Security Council expresses support to UN chief Guterres, after Israel's decision to declare him 'persona non grata' (Source: Anadolu Agency, Turkey.)

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Europe

Austria
1 October 2024  Today, we have strong 'hard-right' parties and multi-party coalitions across Europe. The hard-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) won the election in Austria, which was held on 29 September. Its leader, Kickl, differs in style and character from his predecessors. He is athletic and ascetic and, so far at least, scandal-free. Kickl may be softer on the outside, but his views are far more extremist than those of your average ’far-right’ party. His election manifesto was entitled: “Fortress Austria”. The “Fortress Europe” jokes in the UK tried to depict the EU as protectionist. For the FPÖ, the idea of a fortress is an aspiration. This party appeals to an electorate that does not seek opportunity but protection – against the world we live in. Kickl seeks to change Article 1 of the Austrian constitution, which currently defines Austria as a democratic republic, where power rests with the people. The FPÖ wants to add a clause that Austria must protect itself against the EU, the World Health Organisation and the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – an eclectic choice of organisations, of all which have offended the FPÖ on several occasions. The FPÖ also wants to be able to withdraw citizenship from refugees who fail to integrate, and to introduce an emergency law which suspends the right to asylum, which would constitute a violation of the Geneva convention. The FPÖ wants to abolish laws that penalise right-wing hate speech, exert control over what teachers can say in class, and change the funding structure of the media. Revolutionaries have known since time immemorial that you have to start with the media. „To say that the FPÖ’s agenda is not compatible with membership of the EU would be an understatement”. Radicalism is what won Kickl the election but is also ’the reason why he is unlikely to become chancellor despite coming first with a 29.1 per cent share of the vote”. In the Netherlands last year, Wilders’ Party for Freedom also came first, and Wilders also failed to become prime minister ’for the same reason’. In the Netherlands, at least, standing aside has not damaged Wilders’ popularity, or that of his party If Kickl did the same, it would allow him to keep on pushing for his agenda without being bound by cabinet responsibility. It is also possible for the other Austrian parties to form a losers’ coalition. The centre-right People’s Party, headed by Austria’s current chancellor, Karl Nehammer, could form a coalition with its traditional rival, the Social Democrats. In Austria and Germany, such constellations used to be known as grand coalitions: they are not so grand anymore. A tie-up of the two largest centrist parties would have only 93 seats in Austria’s 183 seat parliament, just one seat more than the threshold for a majority. The two could bring in the liberal Neos Party, but this would be an awkward coalition of parties that have different ideas about immigration, the EU and social policy. „Keeping the hard-right out of power at all costs has proven costly for many centrist parties in Europe”. Next year the hard-right Alternative for Germany is not nearly as old and bold as the FPÖ in Austria. It is polling only at around 20 per cent. It, too, is thriving because the other parties have erected political firewalls against it. The same dynamics are at play. When voters are unhappy about immigration and about the state of the economy, they blame the parties that always end up in government. This is how Giorgia Meloni rose to power in Italy; it is why Marine Le Pen’s party is so strong in France. Long-term economic decline and insecurity are the deep causes behind much of the political instability in Europe. The advice to the centrist parties is to accept defeat when defeated, reboot their agendas, and start thinking deeply about economic reform and investment, and how to co-ordinate this across borders. (Source: newstatesman *)
* The New Statesman, a British political and cultural news magazine published in London.
by Münchau

Asia

Israel
 6:02 PM EDT, Tue October 1, 2024  Israel says Iran ‘will pay’ for launching a major missile attack against it /Video/ (Source: CNN – U.S.)

14:50 GMT 1 October 2024    Israel under attack: Iran unleashes barrage of missiles and warns of 'crushing attacks if IDF responds /video, photo/ (Source: Daily Mail – United Kingdom)

Oct 2024  Israel says it will conduct 'powerful strikes' tonight throughout the Middle East, hours after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack at Israel. (Source: Gulf today – United Arab Emirates)

Japan
5:42 pm on 1 October 2024  Japan's incoming prime minister Ishiba reportedly wants a more "equal" alliance with the United States. Ishiba, who takes office this week is seeking the presence of Japanese forces on Guam, (Source: Radio New Zealand)

North America

United States
Oct 1, 2024, 7:08 AM  Death toll at almost 150 after Hurricane Helene(Source: youtube)
at Okt. 2. 20:06): 4678 wievs

October 1, 2024 (November/December 2024  ’The party in power in Washington can change, the pillars of U.S. foreign policy will not'
(Source: foreignpolicy)
by Blinken, currently serving as the United States secretary of state.

NATO

1 October 2024  No imminent nuclear threat from Russia, says new Nato chief at his first press conference.
(Source: bbc)

Oct 1, 2024  Rutte set to assume NATO top job amid Ukraine and U.S. uncertainty.
(Source: japantimes / Reuters)

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Europe

Hungary
30.09.2024  Ukraine’s FM Sybiha today arrived in Hungary’s capital for talks on several topics, including 'Kyiv’s accession to EU and NATO', says Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. Sybiha began one-on-one talks with his Hungarian counterpart Szijjártó upon arriving in Budapest. In an earlier statement, the ministry said Sybiha will travel to Budapest, where he will hold talks with Szijjártó on multiple topics, including bilateral ties and 'Kyiv’s accession to the EU and NATO'. The statement further said that Sybiha’s visit to Hungary is a continuation of his first regional tour since replacing Kuleba as Ukraine’s foreign minister earlier this month. The purpose of the tour is to establish a “pragmatic and predictable good neighborly policy and progress towards the strategic goal of Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO.' On Sept. 18-19, Sybiha paid a visit to Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova, respectively.  (Source: aa *)
(* Turkey)

European Union
(Monday), 30.09.2024  The international community has warned that Israeli attacks in Lebanon could escalate the Gaza conflict into a wider regional war. The EU foreign policy chief today urged the avoidance of further military intervention in Lebanon, warning that more escalation would dramatically aggravate the situation in the region. Borrell's remarks came after an extraordinary meeting of EU foreign ministers via a video conference called this morning to discuss the current escalation in Lebanon, where multiple reports suggest an Israel ground assault is imminent. "Any further military intervention would dramatically aggravate the situation and has to be avoided," Borrell said. "We are very much concerned about the risk of this further situation of the conflict … and urge all parties in the region to show restraint in the interest of de-escalation." (Source: aa)

Russia
Sep 30, 2024, 5:47pm  Putin has ordered the conscription of another 133,000 soldiers to aid his war in Ukraine. The 18-to-30 year olds will be called up between tomorrow and December 31. The figure is higher than the same draft last year when Putin recruited 130,000. In spring he drafted another 150,000. (Source: metro *)
(* United Kingdom)

(Monday, 30.9.2024 17:45 PM)  Russia plans to ramp up its defense spending by almost 30% in 2025, a document on the parliamentary website published today showed. Defense spending will account for 32% of government spending in 2025, according to the figures. The latest planned increase in spending will take next year's defense budget to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion, €130 billion), up from 10.4 trillion in 2024. The figures in today's release do not include some other resources being directed to the military campaign, such as spending that Russia describes as "domestic security" and some expenditure classified as top secret. Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said that the needs of what the Kremlin calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine and support for the military would remain the budget priority for 2025. Russia had already increased military spending to levels not seen since the Soviet Union era, producing missiles and drones for use in Ukraine, while paying for its hundreds of thousands of soldiers fighting on the front lines. (Source: dw)

Ukraine
(30.9.2024 09:45 AM)  Russia launched several waves of drones targeting Kyiv early today. The air force said it had shot down 67 of the 73 drones and one of the three missiles fired by Russia during the attack. No casualties or damage have been reported. Russian forces have captured the village of Nelipivka in eastern Donetsk region, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Russian President Putin has vowed in a video message that Moscow will achieve all the goals it has set for itself in Ukraine. The video message was released to mark the second anniversary of what Russia calls the "reunification day," when Moscow annexed four Ukrainian regions. In his speech, Putin repeated his justification for sending troops into neighboring Ukraine as protecting Russian speakers from a 'neo-Nazi dictatorship' that aims to 'cut them off forever from Russia, their historic homeland". The annexation was widely condemned by the international community as 'illegal and illegitimate'. (Source: dw)

Asia

Iran
Sep 30, 2024  The Iran-Iraq war of 1980s still strongly influences Iran’s strategic thinking. Its main lesson was that Iran, absent military-political alliances that guaranteed its security, had only itself to rely on for its security needs. With Israel turning against Iran after the vanquishing of Iraq’s Hussein in the early 1990s, Hezbollah’s main role, from Tehran’s point of view, became to act as a deterrent against any possible Israeli strike on Iran’s territory, particularly its nuclear infrastructure. With its growing arsenal of Iran-supplied missiles, so crucial this role has become that Hezbollah’s “loaded gun” pointed at Israel has indeed become Iran’s best insurance against an Israeli strike. The assassination by Israel of Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, may have dealt a terminal blow to any chance of a renewed détente between the United States and Europe on the one hand, and Iran on the other. The Israeli strike happened only few days after the reformist Iranian President Pezeshkian spoke at the United Nations General Assembly in New York of his desire to re-engage with the West, and his experienced foreign policy team - including those who negotiated the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA), such as Vice President for Strategic Affairs Zarif, Foreign Minister Araghchi and former ambassador to the U.N. Ravanchi - were busy reconnecting with their Western counterparts to discuss the prospects of reviving diplomacy. The assassination of Nasrallah is a blow to those prospects not because an Iranian retaliatory strike, which would compel the U.S. and EU to double down on supporting Israel, is imminent. In fact, Iranian leaders made it clear that the 'Lebanese resistance' remains strong enough to deliver a response to Israel on its own, without direct Iranian involvement. Iranian leaders, particularly Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, were slow to realize that Israel’s risk assessment had shifted dramatically after October 7, and old “red lines” no longer applied. While the assassination of Nasrallah may be seen as a reckless attempt by Netanyahu to distract attention from his failures in Gaza and boost his political standing, there is no evidence that his new, bold tactics met significant pushback from the military leaders, the opposition, or indeed the public at large. Iran is more vulnerable than ever to Israel attack. Hezbollah, Tehran's ally in Lebanon, no longer appears to be the deterrent it once was. While Israel will not succeed in completely destroying Hezbollah or whatever successor may emerge to replace it, given the organization’s deep roots in Lebanon’s Shiite community, degrading it opens a window of opportunity for Tel Aviv to strike at Iran at a moment of its perceived weakness. This is what, in fact, Trump’s son-in-law, Kushner, who is also seen as close to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, recently suggested, arguing that for Israel a failure to act decisively now would be 'irresponsible.' Given that the Biden administration has shown no inclination or ability to restrain Israel’s actions, that means that Iran urgently needs to reestablish some semblance of deterrence. The option to weaponize the country’s nuclear program has been growing increasingly attractive, even before the latest Israeli campaign in Lebanon, to the point that now the majority of the Iranians would support it. That option, however, carries enormous risks. While Iran has amassed enough technical expertise and material to build a bomb, an actual decision to build it, even if Khamenei were to shed his reluctance to go down that path, would almost certainly invite Israeli and/or American strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It will also trigger a sanctions snapback - a mechanism provided in U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 that enshrined the JCPOA. It allows any member of the Security Council to reimpose nuclear-related sanctions on Iran without a veto from other members of the Security Council. The U.S. is no longer a part of the JCPOA, but Britain and France are, and any one of them could trigger the snap back. With a rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East, there is plenty of time to do that - the deadline to activate the snapback comes in October 2025. The reimposition of the U.N. Security Council sanctions would wreck any plans by the Pezeshkian administration to reach out to the West, remove sanctions and improve Iran’s economic situation, which, in turn, would further deepen the already simmering public discontent with conditions in the country. Another option for Iran would be to urgently upgrade its air defenses - which it has to do in any case - but, in current circumstances, it would mean relying on Russia in the hope that Moscow would reciprocate Iran’s deliveries of drones and, reportedly, ballistic missiles deployed in Ukraine. Russia, however, has its own calculations, including its wariness of potentially alienating its other partners in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, if it is perceived as moving too close to Iran. Even if Russia overcomes these reservations, Moscow may ask for more in return, such as military bases on Iranian soil - politically, a controversial matter in Iran. But if, faced with a threat to its survival, the Islamic Republic does move closer to Russia, the chances of a renewed dialogue with the West, particularly Europe, would be nipped in the bud at a time when the reformist administration in Tehran strives to diversify its international ties. All of this could have been avoided if the Biden administration had used its leverage to restrain Israel and engage in good faith with Iran on the nuclear issue and regional security. As the U.S. is in the midst of an election campaign, the chances for such an about-face in Washington are nil. (Source: responsiblestatecraft)
by Mamedov, a Brussels-based foreign policy expert

Israel
(Monday, 30 09 2024 21:09 CEST)  Over the last three weeks, the IDF has moved many infantry and tank units from Gaza to the northern border and mobilized several reserve brigades. Just days after killing Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, Israel is preparing for an imminent ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which will focus on villages close to the border. The Israeli security cabinet convened today to discuss the ground invasion, Israeli officials said. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant alluded to the possibility of an imminent ground invasion in a meeting with soldiers in a tank unit on the border today. "In order to ensure the return of Israel's northern communities, we will employ all of our capabilities, and this includes you,' Gallant said. In a meeting with the heads of municipalities which are located on the northern border, Gallant said 'the next phase in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon and it will be a significant factor in changing the security situation and will allow us to return the residents to their homes." Israel had adjusted its plans after 48 hours of high-level conversations between U.S. and Israeli officials. The Israelis assured the White House that the plan is now more targeted, focused on clearing out Hezbollah infrastructure near the Israeli border and then pulling IDF forces back. The Biden Administration understands the strategic purpose of the ground operation and the need to make sure Hezbollah cannot maintain the capacity to attack Israeli communities from the immediate opposite side of the border, the sources said. Israeli officials say the objective is to "clean up" military positions and infrastructure Hezbollah had established close to the border. Only once Hezbollah's presence near the border is eliminated will the tens of thousands of Israeli citizens who were displaced during cross-border strikes after Oct. 7 be able to return to their homes, the officials say. But White House officials told their Israeli counterparts they're concerned that - as in previous wars in Lebanon - what starts as a time-limited and geographically limited operation slides into something larger and longer-term. The Biden administration has also privately 'warned' that an invasion will increase support for Hezbollah among ordinary Lebanese people. 'I'm comfortable with [Israel] stopping,' President Biden said today, when asked about a potential invasion. 'We should have a ceasefire now.' Over 1,000 people have been killed in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah over the past two weeks. (Source: axios)

Lebanon
Monday, 30 September 2024 09:38 AM)  Since September 23, Israel has launched its most intense and widespread assault on Lebanon since the clashes with Hezbollah began nearly a year ago. Overnight, Israeli warplanes hit the towns of Ebba and the area between Zebdine and Choukine in southern Lebanon. The Israeli army said it carried out an attack in Beirut and struck Hezbollah targets in the Bekaa Valley. Israeli forces have launched early today an air strike on Beirut’s Kola area. An Israeli drone targeted a fifth-floor apartment in a building on the road connecting Beirut with Rafik Hariri International Airport. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) confirmed that the strike killed three of its leaders: (Mohammed) Aal, a political bureau member and head of the military and security division; Ouda, the military commander in Lebanon, and (Rahman) Aal. Israeli jets also bombed the Islamic Health Authority centre in the Beqaa town of Sohmor. Israel also carried out an air strike on the El-Buss refugee camp near Tyre in southern Lebanon for the first time. Hamas said Sharif, the group’s commander in Lebanon, as well as his wife, daughter and son, were killed in the air strike. Late yesterday, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported that Israeli air strikes in the southern districts of Tyre and Bint Jbeil killed 21 people and injured 125. The ongoing attacks have claimed at least 916 lives, including women and children, and injured 2,709 others, according to data from Lebanese authorities. (Source: trtworld *)
(* Turkey)

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Europe

Hungary
(Sunday, 29 September 2024)  “We probably wouldn’t have done what President Zelensky did two and a half years ago, because it’s irresponsible,” Orbán, the political director to the Hungarian prime minister (and of no relation to him) said in a podcast interview he gave on Wednesday. “Because obviously he put his country into a war defense, all these people died, all this territory was lost - again, it’s their right, it’s their sovereign decision, they had the right to do it. But if we had been asked, we would not have advised it.” He also said: “From ’56 we learned that we must handle the very valuable Hungarian lives with care. They cannot just be thrown away in front of others like that.” Whatever his intentions may have been, the implication was twofold: the Ukrainians should not have resisted, and the Hungarian Uprising of 1956 was a futile effort. Orbán is now doing damage control. “The heroes of ’56 are national heroes, their memory is sacred and unassailable, those heroes were right and did the right thing,” the political director said in a video released on Thursday. Back in March, his new book, Hussar Cut: The Hungarian Strategy for Connectivity, outlined Hungarian 'grand strategy” for a multipolar world. He rejects what he views as a kind of neo-romanticism that needlessly places the western “democracies' at odds with “autocracies', advocating instead for a foreign policy grounded in realism, not ideological lecturing. In the new cold war between the West and its rivals, Hungary does not have to take sides. His vision is to implement “a connectivity strategy” in which Hungary looks out for its best interests by extending in as many different directions as possible. By doing so, he told, it may become a 'keystone state,” that can absorb the tensions of opposing blocs and de-escalate global conflicts. Withdrawing from Western alliances would contradict this strategy’s principles. Brexit was a disaster for Hungary, he said, because it eliminated a valuable counterweight from an EU structure that has grown progressively worse ever since. “We want to get involved in every kind of cooperation which is based on national interests. This is what we want.” (Source: thespectator *)
* The Spectator World

Austria
(Sunday), September 29, 2024  Following the parliamentary election, Austria's 'far-right' The Freedom Party (FPÖ) wins parliamentary vote, beating the conservative ÖVP for the first time. Over 6.3 million people of Austria's 9 million residents were eligible to vote. Immigration concerns and an economic downturn have dominated the electoral landscape. According to preliminary official results, the FPÖ garnered 29.2% of votes, followed by Chancellor Karl Nehammer's center-right conservative ÖVP at 26.48%. Under the election program titled "Fortress Austria," the FPÖ has called for more deportations of 'uninvited foreigners' and wants to suspend the right to asylum with an emergency law. They also urged ending sanctions against Russia. Former Interior minister Kickl, the longtime campaign strategist has served as the head of the party since 2021. Under his leadership, the party has seen its popularity rebound on voter anger and anxieties over COVID restrictions, migration, inflation and the Ukraine war. A day ahead of the election, three of its senior leaders attended a funeral which included a song popular among the Nazis. A video showing the FPÖ politicians at the funeral was published in the local media. During the campaign, Nehammer sought to portray FPÖ's Kickl as a toxic extremist and said he would not be working with him, but signaled the conservatives could cooperate with the FPÖ as a whole. The 'center-left' Social Democrats got 21.05% of the votes. The Greens, who are part of the current governing coalition with the conservatives, secured 8.03% of support. The FPÖ now has the most seats in the new Austrian parliament. Today evening, FPÖ leader Kickl said his party was ready to negotiate with other political forces. The 'far-right' party does not have enough seats to form a government on its own and would require a coalition. The Social Democrats have already ruled out such an agreement, but the ÖVP has not -  the party previously ruled in a coalition with the FPÖ, but one in which it was the majority partner. A three-way coalition between the conservatives, Social Democrats and the liberal Neos could also be a possibility. The head of Germany's 'far-right' AfD party, Weidel, congratulated FPÖ after the projections were published. The German party, which shares large elements of its ideology with FPÖ, also marked major strides in three separate state elections in Germany earlier this month. (Source: dw, 'AFP, dpa')

Baltics
September 29 2024 14:03:23  NATO members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland will seek European Union funding to build a network of bunkers, barriers, distribution lines and military warehouses along their borders with Russia and Belarus. The defense ministers of the four European countries located on NATO's eastern flank met in the southeastern Latvian city of Daugavpils on Sept. 27 to discuss the project's funding. They noted in a joint statement that “Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown that creating physical obstacles on an open ground with no natural defensive cover is paramount even in technologically advanced warfare.” The three Baltic countries initially announced the plan for a ’Baltic Defense Line’ in January. In May, Poland announced a similar project called the ’Eastern Shield’ with a purpose to strengthen its borders with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and with Belarus. (Source: hurriyetdailynews)

Russia
29.9.2024 11:50 AM  Russian air defenses have shot down 125 Ukrainian drones, according to the country's Defense Ministry. The border regions of Belgorod and Rostov were particularly targeted. Authorities in the southwestern city of Voronezh reported damage from falling debris. Fires also reportedly broke out. No one was hurt. The Bryansk, Kursk and Krasnodar regions were also attacked in isolated cases. At dawn, Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine had been hit by 10 Russian strikes that destroyed a multi-story building, several houses and wounded at least 16 people. (Source: dw)

Ukraine
(Sunday), 29/09/2024 - 13:01  Russian forces hit a medical center in Sumy in northeastern Ukraine yesterday morning then struck again as the building was being evacuated, killing nine people and injuring 20 others, Ukrainian officials said. Ukrainian prosecutors said that at the time of the attacks, 86 patients and 38 staff members were in the hospital. (Source: france24)

Asia

Syria
(Sunday), 19:12 UTC+8, 2024-09-29  At least 17 people, including four Syrian fighters affiliated with Iran-backed militias, were killed in a series of unidentified airstrikes on Syria's eastern province of Deir al-Zour and surrounding areas today. (Source: shine / Xinhua)

North America

United States
Sep 29th, 2024, 3:07 pm  "Democracy is over' if Trump is not elected to a second term, Musk claimed. He wrote: "Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it! Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting as fast as humanly possible, that would be about 2 million new legal voters in 4 years. The voting margin in the swing states is often less than 20 thousand votes. That means if the 'Democratic' Party succeeds, there will be no more swing states!! Moreover, the Biden/Harris administration has been flying “asylum seekers', who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election. America then becomes a one-party state and Democracy is over. The only “elections' will be the Democratic Party primaries. This already happened in California many years ago, following the 1986 amnesty. The only thing holding California back from extreme socialism and suffocating government policies is that people can leave California and still remain in America. Once the whole country is controlled by one party, there will be no escape. Everywhere in America will be like the nightmare that is downtown San Francisco'. Musk’s claim was in response to a tweet from Sen. MLee (R-UT) that claimed 'thousands of noncitizen voter files' were being found nationwide resulting in Democrats attempting to prevent states from purging ineligible voters from their rolls. (Source: mediaite)

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Europe

North Macedonia
28.09.2024  "The Western Balkans deserve much more than they have received from Brussels so far. I want to say that these countries should have become EU members long ago," Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán said in a news conference in North Macedonia's capital, Skopje, where he met his counterpart, Hristijan Mickosk, emphasizing the importance of keeping Western Balkan countries’ EU membership on the agenda. "North Macedonia has been a candidate for EU membership together with Croatia since 2005. "Since then, Croatia has become an EU member, but negotiations with North Macedonia have not yet started. This is a huge mistake for the EU, and I can describe it as a historic mistake," said Orbán. He said he suggested to Mickoski that Hungary could mediate a dispute between North Macedonia and Bulgaria, provided both are willing. Bulgaria has been obstructing North Macedonia’s EU accession efforts, accusing it of disregarding historical and cultural ties. Sofia’s demands include the recognition that the Macedonian language is derived from Bulgarian and the acknowledgment of a Bulgarian minority in North Macedonia. Mickoski, in turn, reaffirmed North Macedonia's commitment to advancing its EU membership process and resolving ongoing issues. Due to Bulgaria’s pressure, the EU membership processes for North Macedonia and Albania have been separated. The first chapter of Albania's EU accession negotiations is set to open Oct. 15. (Source: anadoluagency)

Russia
September 28, 2024  The Russian Military isn't bluffing. The Russians, having committed to military reform, have a long-term strategic goal - Russia embarked on the State Armament Program from 2011 to 2020, focussing on modern reequipment, for both strategic and ground forces. NATO forces, on the other hand, are inexperienced and beset by political divisions. The question facing NATO is how quickly and with what quality the Russians can improve their military capability. The German chief of defense, Breuer, estimated in April that 'a Russian attack could be five to eight years away'. The Norwegian chief of staff, Kristoffersen, was quoted this month as saying that ’NATO has only two or three years to equip itself to face a strengthening Russian military’. The Russian forces have a great deal of experience in practice: Crimea, Syria, and the war in eastern Ukraine. The move away from a conscripted force toward a professional cadre has been on the whole, successful. Despite the excursion into Kursk, the Russian military, despite large troop losses in Ukraine, is able to reconstitute its forces. Ukrainian intelligence suggests the Russians can replenish forces by up to 30,000 per month. Inadequate training of troops, however, will mean that Russia may not see significant breakthroughs in 2024. Nevertheless, Putin's February 2024 decree incorporated the areas of occupation into the Southern Military District (SMD) which aims to provide, in Shoigu's phrase, “self-sufficient groupings of troops.” This, in effect, means a permanent Russian military command structure in Ukraine. Despite its robust performance, such as ground force losses in Ukraine, the most serious problem Russia faces in the future, is how to sustain equipment levels. Despite having improved its precision-guided targeting abilities, the necessity to fulfill equipment shortages will need a constant supply of support from allies such as Iran and North Korea. Russia's policy will struggle with increasing technology sanctions from the West. Chatham House notes Russia's particular skill in bypassing sanctions. A key factor of Western strategy will be to curtail the technological inputs into Russia's Military Industrial Complex. This could see a decline in the military-industrial functionality in Russia. Recapitalization of hardware and slowing innovation will hamper the Russian military build-up. The overall geopolitical situation is complicated. The looming prospect of deindustrialization in Europe - particularly in Germany from years of outsourcing to China and the high cost of energy - could lead to the collapse of the European Union project for Europe, it makes an expensive base for future industrial production. This will have knock-on consequences for the industrial military reboot of European security. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Bolger, University of Liverpool. He is an adviser to several Think Tanks and Corporates on Geopolitical Issues. He has taught political philosophy and applied linguistics in universities across Europe. His new book - ‘Nowhere Fast: Democracy and Identity in the Twenty First Century' is published now.

Asia

Iran
(Saturday), Sep 28, 2024, 10:00 AM  US Secretary of State Blinken has called for a path to diplomacy as Israel intensified its strikes in Lebanon. "The choices that all parties make in the coming days will determine which path this region is on, with profound consequences for its people now and possibly for years to come”. "The most important thing to do through diplomacy is to try first to stop firing in both directions and then to use the time that we would have in such a ceasefire to see if we can reach a broader diplomatic agreement," Blinken told on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York yesterday. He reiterated the Biden administration's position that the US is still gathering information regarding Israel's recent military attacks on southern Beirut on Friday. Israel has pounded Lebanon since Monday morning, killing over 700 people and injuring nearly 2,200 others, according to figures released by the Lebanese Health Ministry. The ministry also said that the death toll in Lebanon since last October is 1,540, in addition to more than 77,000 displaced from southern and eastern parts of the country. Israel's tensions with Lebanon have continued since its genocidal war started on Gaza in October last year. Relentless Israeli bombing has killed more than 41,500 people, mostly women and children till date. (Source: en.mehrnews / MNA)

Lebanon
(Saturday), September 28, 2024  The US State Department today ordered the families of embassy personnel in Beirut to leave the country and authorized the departure of some staff, as the Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates. The department ordered the departure 'due to the increased volatility following airstrikes within Beirut and the volatile and unpredictable security situation throughout Lebanon,' it said. All US citizens were urged to leave "while commercial options still remain available." (Source: barrons / Agence France Presse)

(Saturday), 28/09/2024 - 17:25  What will mean for Lebanon as well as for the broader Middle East the death of longtime Hezbollah chief Nasrallah? Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is returning from New York where he was attending the UN General Assembly, will hold an exceptional cabinet meeting today evening focused on Nasrallah's death. The official stance of the Lebanese government has been to seek a de-escalation and the full implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Nasrallah's death and the continued bombardment of Beirut – the most severe of the past year – is fueling fears that cross-border tensions are on the verge of exploding into a wider conflict. The Lebanese population is sharply divided on the role Hezbollah plays in their politics. Some 30 percent of the population professing significant trust in the movement. Others are deeply resentful, wanting a Lebanon free from sectarian conflict. As an organisation, Hezbollah has in recent months been "significantly downgraded in military capability, leadership. Iran-backed Hezbollah did not enjoy support among Iran's regional rivals. There is even a sense of "relief" – 'hidden joy' ? – in some capitals following news of Nasrallah's death, with Hezbollah viewed as a destabilising force by many in the region's Arab capitals. None of the conservative Arab states have been particularly fond of Hezbollah which now faces the challenge of choosing a new leader after suffering the heaviest casualties of its 42-year history. Iran, for its part, announced five days of national mourning following Hezbollah leader Nasrallah's death, which "will not go unavenged', Supreme Leader Khamenei said in the statement on state television. General Nilforushan, a prominent member of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, died in the same airstrike that killed Nasrallah. Tehran's doctrine is of strategic patience, whereby they play the long game. Are they reluctant to engage Israel in any direct way? No reaction risks undermining Iranian credibility as an "Axis of Resistance' power and a deterrence against Israel. Tehran will seek to restabilize Hezbollah and rebuild its force. Nasrallah led the group for 32 years. The man widely regarded as his chosen heir, successor, Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah's and – like him – a cleric, the head of the group's executive council, who wears the black turban denoting a descendent of the Prophet Mohammed. The US State Department designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017. He oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs. Safieddine also sits on the Jihad Council, which manages military operations. His public statements often reflect Hezbollah’s militant stance and its alignment with the Palestinian cause. He has been vocal in his criticism of US policy. ’This mentally impeded, crazy US administration headed by Trump will not be able to harm the resistance, he said in 2017 in response to US pressure on Hezbollah, adding that the US moves would only strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve. (Source: france24 "with Reuters")

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Asia

China
September 27, 2024 4:56 pm (EST)  China and Russia have strengthened ties. We can anticipate continuing advances in cooperation in the coming months.       Ukraine: China continues to forward peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine. In late August, China’s Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs Li urged more countries to support the peace plan created with Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa in May. Russian President Putin endorsed China’s peace efforts by stating that China, Brazil, and India could serve as mediators. In a meeting with the Russian Security Council secretary on September 11, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang promised to promote “rational voices” to create the conditions for a possible political settlement in Ukraine. That message was echoed at Beijing’s Xiangshan Forum, an annual security conference in China, in speeches by Chinese Defense Minister Dong and Foreign Vice Minister Chen. President Zelenskyy dismissed Brazil and China’s efforts as ’destructive,’ claiming in an interview on September 12 that their peace initiative was disrespectful to Ukraine and its territorial integrity. Tensions between China and the United States over the war in Ukraine increased in September. On August 30, China’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Geng called on the United States to “make real efforts to promote peace” at a meeting of the UN Security Council. Shuang later criticized the United States for escalating the conflict and disrupting international and regional peace by continuing to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. In response, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell accused China of providing “substantial” support for Russia’s war effort that is being directed by top Chinese leadership. The U.S. Deputy Assistance Secretary of Defense Chase raised the issue directly with Defense Minister Jun during talks on September 15. Those heightened tensions follow the United States’ imposition of sanctions in August on hundreds of Chinese entities for supporting Russia’s military efforts. On September 24, Ukraine’s Presidential Advisor Vlasiuk told that China is supplying roughly 60 percent of the foreign made components for Russian weapons used in Ukraine. European intelligence indicates a subsidiary of a Russian state-owned weapons manufacturer has established a factory in China to produce long-range attack drones to use in the war in Ukraine.       Diplomatic relations: After Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov warned, on September 1, that the country would change its nuclear policy in response to the supposed escalation of Western involvement in Ukraine, China reaffirmed its stance against using nuclear weapons. Taiwanese President Lai recently suggested that China’s territorial claims over Taiwan are driven by a desire to reshape global order rather than by genuine territorial integrity. He pointed out that China should reclaim territories lost to Russia in the nineteenth century if it is truly motivated by territorial concerns. In response, Russian officials criticized Lai, emphasizing that Russia and China settled their border disputes in a 2004 agreement and expressing support for China’s stance on Taiwan. Chinese leader Xi is set to visit Russia next month for the BRICS summit in Kazan, marking his second trip since February 2022. Beijing has supported Russia’s claim that the West provoked the conflict. Xi’s visit highlights the deepening economic and military ties between China and Russia, amid Western sanctions and geopolitical tensions. At the Xiangshan Forum on September 13, Chinese and Russian defense officials criticized the West, with China advocating for stronger military ties with developing nations and Russia accusing the United States of escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific. The forum also addressed recent military developments, including the transit of German warships through the Taiwan Strait.       Financial tensions: Following U.S. threats of secondary sanctions, Chinese banks have begun halting transactions with Russia, causing tens of billions of yuan in payments to be frozen, complicating trade between the two countries. In the second quarter of 2024, the Bank of China cut its assets in Russia by 37 percent, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reduced theirs by 27 percent, citing payment difficulties. Russian companies are experiencing significant delays and increased costs in transactions with Chinese partners. Those actions have particularly affected smaller Russian companies, while major trade in commodities such as oil and grain is largely unchanged. Some Russian businesses are using intermediaries – which led to transaction costs rising to 6 percent from close to 0 percent - or alternative methods to circumvent the issues.       Uranium trade probe: The United States is investigating whether China is aiding Russia’s nuclear industry by importing Russian uranium and exporting its own to the United States, despite a recent U.S. ban on Russian enriched uranium. Since the ban’s enactment, China has sent large shipments of uranium to the United States. The situation has alarmed U.S. uranium producers, who fear China could be circumventing the ban to gain a bigger role in global uranium markets while continuing to rely on Russian supplies.       Vehicle ban: The U.S. Commerce Department hopes to ban connected vehicles with Chinese and Russian software or hardware by 2027 and 2030, respectively, due to national security concerns. The goal is to protect sensitive data and prevent potential remote control of vehicles. The rule would apply to vehicles driven on public roads but exclude specialized ones such as agricultural equipment.        Military cooperation: On September 10, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell had accused China of providing "very substantial" military assistance to Russia, including direct support for Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. That assistance reportedly includes advanced military technology. In return, Russia is sharing submarine, missile, and other sensitive technology with China. Campbell expressed concerns that those developments could pose a threat not only to the United States but also to other countries such as Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea. He urged Europe to take a firmer stance on China’s support for Russia, suggesting that increased scrutiny of the financial institutions involved could have significant impacts. On September 11, Russia stated that its partnership with China is not aimed at other countries but is a defensive measure against potential threats, particularly from the United States. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova emphasized that their strategic partnership is not aggressive but is intended to counteract potential U.S. military action, such as the possible deployment of missiles in Japan. The partnership, formalized in a no-limits deal in 2022, focuses on strategic cooperation but does not constitute a formal military alliance. China’s Defense Ministry has announced joint naval and air exercises with Russia, called the Northern United-2024 exercises, starting on September 21 in the Sea of Japan and his month in the Sea of Okhotsk. The drills aim to enhance strategic cooperation and address security threats. The Defense Ministry will also conduct joint naval cruises in the Pacific and participate in Russia’s Great Ocean-24 exercise for the fifth time. On September 9, Kirby, a National Security Council spokesperson, described the drills as long planned and not a cause for concern. The exercises come amid a perceived sea power gap in the western Pacific, with some U.S. aircraft carriers diverted from the region. (Source: cfr *)
* Council on Foreign Relations

Iraq
9:16 PM CEST, September 27, 2024  The U.S. announced an agreement with the Iraqi government today to wrap up the military mission in Iraq of an American-led coalition fighting the islamic state group by next year, with U.S. troops departing some bases that they have long occupied during a two-decade-long military presence in the country. In the first phase, which runs through September 2025, the coalition mission against isis will end and forces will leave some longstanding bases. In the second phase, the U.S. will continue to operate in some fashion from Iraq through 2026 to support counter-isis operations in Syria. But the Biden administration refused to provide details on how many of the approximately 2,500 U.S. troops still serving in Iraq will remain there or acknowledge it will mark a full withdrawal from the country. Ultimately, the U.S. military mission would transition to a bilateral security relationship. The Iraqi officials said some American troops may stay at Hareer base after 2026 because the Kurdistan regional government would like them to stay.Bases housing U.S. forces and contractors have been regularly targeted by Iran-backed militias over the last several years, and those attacks intensified late last year and early this spring after the Israel-Hamas war broke out nearly a year ago. For years, Iraqi officials have periodically called for a withdrawal of coalition forces, and formal talks to wind down the U.S. presence in the country have been going on for months. Iraq has long struggled to balance its ties with the U.S. and Iran, both allies of the Iraqi government but regional archenemies. The presence of American forces in Iraq makes it more difficult for Iran to move weapons across Iraq and Syria into Lebanon, for use by its proxies, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, against Israel. The agreement marks the third time in the last two decades that the U.S. has announced a formal transition of the military’s role there. (Source: apnews)

North America

United States
September 27, 2024  Ukraine’s desperate 'Victory Plan.' UK prime minister Keir Starmer recently visited U.S. president Biden to approve a green light to Kyiv. Several European countries, including Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden, and Finland support the UK. In contrast, German chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out permission for Ukraine to use its Taurus cruise missiles. Kyiv wants permission to fire long-range missiles (300-400km) into Russia. President Zelensky visited Washington this week to pitch his “victory plan,” which involves deep strikes and new weaponry. Will the United States greenlight Ukrainian “deep strikes” into Russia? The Biden administration appears very cautious while it weighs the costs, risks, and benefits of long-range strike approval. There is a sense of déjà vu here. We have seen similar “sagas” of Western weapon supplies throughout this war. Recall the hesitancy to send HIMARS, then NATO tanks, ATACMS, and F-16s. Each time, America and Germany demonstrated reluctance only later to agree. While these stories keep Ukraine in the news cycle, in military-strategic terms, it is far from a success. Kyiv’s desire for Western approval for long-range strikes within Russia will not bring about anything close to a decisive victory for Ukraine. Giving too little, too late has been the recurring theme of the West’s dysfunctional support of Ukraine’s war effort. NATO weapons systems are expensive and in short supply. Drip-feeding them to Ukraine means they can only be used in sporadic and indecisive ways. In addition, this approach provides Russia with a sandbox environment in which to study Western weapons and work out technical countermeasures. Having adapted to each wave of NATO weaponry deployed against it, Russia continues its grinding and methodical war of attrition. There are increasing signs that Ukraine is reaching a breaking point. Kyiv insists on permission for deep strikes, claiming this can stem the tide. The Biden administration has good reason to doubt the effectiveness of deep strikes. The range of Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles is around 300km. They cannot threaten Russia’s military-industrial heartlands, energy system, or wider war-making capacity with strategic bombing on a mass scale. On the tactical and operational level, however, such strikes can cause significant inconvenience to Russia. Such missiles can hit Russian bases, supply dumps, transport, and energy systems in the logistical rear of the frontlines. This could disrupt Russia’s progress in the Donbas for some period. But can Ukraine really be supplied with enough of these costly missiles to slow Russia for a long enough time? And how will this stop Russia’s ongoing destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid and its deepening humanitarian tragedy? How do deep strikes solve the problem of Ukraine’s shrinking population or the lack of basic military materiel to equip Ukrainian brigades and hold the line? Zelensky is looking for escalation permission, as Ukraine runs out of time and options. Washington is worried about the bigger picture. They know approving deep strikes may not only derail chances for peace negotiations - 'an option Washington wants to keep open" — but also open a Pandora’s box of escalation scenarios. Putin has declared that a greenlight for Ukraine’s deep strikes would mean 'the United States, NATO, and the European countries are at war with Russia,' which would take 'suitably matched' countermeasures. Alongside Russia’s new and less restrictive nuclear doctrine, what might these be? On September 16, the Houthis successfully hit central Israel with a long-range ballistic missile for the first time. It is unknown who supplied them with this missile system. If Moscow sends the Houthis Iskander (400km range) ballistic weapons or Zircon (range 1000km) hypersonic missiles, it could spark a massive escalation in the Middle East. U.S. naval assets in the Red Sea would suddenly be very vulnerable. Their sinking would transmit a shocking message of U.S. weakness in the region at a critical time. Russia could also try to bring the war home to Europeans, whose taxes pay a large part of Ukraine’s war effort. The most extreme scenario would be if Russia retaliated with deep strikes on Ukraine’s own logistical rear, which is partly located on the territory of NATO members Poland and Romania. The triggering of Article 5, whether intentional or not, would lead to a critical moment of decision. Would the United States follow through with a devasting conventional strike on Crimea? Would Russia then use tactical nuclear weapons as its final attempt to restore deterrence? "Thankfully, there is reason to believe' that Washington sees these dangers and will work with Moscow to manage the risks. This clearly disgusts a great deal of analysts and commentators in the West who are gung-ho about deep strikes and united in seeing Russia as a paper tiger whose bluffs can be ignored. The historians of the future will likely commend the restraint of the Biden administration. It has kept the world safe from unpredictable escalation between two nuclear powers. 'Even if deep strikes are greenlighted, Washington will ensure they come too late and be on too small a scale' to help Ukraine. It is at this point that Biden and the company will also be judged less favorably by the same historians. Their policy of limited support is failing, and Kyiv cannot achieve success within the parameters imposed upon them. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Blackburn, a Senior Researcher in Norwegian Institute of International Affairs’ (NUPI) Research Group on Russia, Asia and International Trade. He is also an affiliated researcher at the Institute of Russian and Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University. He is engaged in research on Iran-Russia-China cooperation for the Norwegian Geopolitics Centre and is a research coordinator for the Civilizationalism Project based at Stanford University.

(26.9.2024 18:00)  The US, EU and Kyiv all lambasted Russian President Putin's plans to amend Russia's nuclear deterrence doctrine in a manner which might consider a 'massive' aerial attack on Russia supported by a nuclear state as a 'joint attack,' even if the attacker is a non-nuclear state. The update was proposed yesterday by President Putin, who has the right to pass it. Putin gave the example of Russia receiving "reliable information of a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border,' as a case where Russia might consider nuclear retaliation. It is seen as a clear reference to Ukraine, as Kyiv presses its Western allies to grant it permission to use the long-range weapons they provide to strike deep within Russia. US Secretary of State Blinken criticized the proposed amendment on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly today as 'totally irresponsible'. 'Russia has nothing left but nuclear blackmail; it has no other instruments to intimidate the world', Yermak, head of the president's office, wrote yesterday evening. He said attempts to spread fear would not work. European Union foreign policy spokesman Stano rejected the plan as 'reckless and irresponsible.' The Kremlin meanwhile defended the move, describing it as a warning to the west. (Source: dw)

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Hungary
September 27, 2024 10:22 am CET  Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said yesterday that Budapest is keen to strengthen economic ties with Moscow, despite ongoing European Union sanctions against Russia. “Apart from the fact that we do not like the sanctions regime - although there are European rules that we have to comply with -  we are very open about our desire to improve economic relations between Russia and Hungary in all areas that are not affected by sanctions,” Szijjártó told TASS news agency on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Szijjártó then referred to a Hungarian-Russian Economic Cooperation Committee meeting held in Budapest last week, which was attended by Russian Health Minister Murashko. “We also held a business forum, in which 173 entrepreneurs from both sides took part. For me, this shows that there is not only a political desire to improve economic relations, but business also wants this,” he said. Hungary’s vocal opposition to EU sanctions against Russia, its interest in strengthening economic ties with Moscow were leading to tensions between Brussels and Budapest. 'EU foreign ministers and finance ministers recently boycotted EU meetings held in Budapest in September, sending a message of growing frustration about Hungary’s attitude toward Russia'. (Source: politico)

Finland
27 September 2024  The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, O’Flaherty, has called on Finland to continue to honour its strong track record of promoting and defending human rights, following a visit to the country from 23 to 26 September, which focused on the situation of Roma and issues related to migration and asylum. During his visit, the Commissioner engaged with Roma communities and listened to their concerns about the discrimination they experience in different areas of life. Amidst a climate of rising racism in Finnish society, representatives from the Roma communities conveyed how antigypsyism impacts their daily interactions and access to social rights, including housing, education and employment. The Commissioner also notes that, despite a comprehensive legal framework protecting the rights of Roma, and ambitious national action plans, implementation in practice sometimes falls behind. The Commissioner is particularly concerned about the situation of the group known as “migrant EU Roma” who have immigrated mainly from eastern Europe. Without effective access to the labour and housing market and full access to social services, they often experience homelessness, and live in destitution. On the subject of migration, and following his letter to the Finnish Parliament and several committee chairs of 11 June 2024, the Commissioner sought through his visit to gain a deeper understanding of the situation at the eastern border and regarding the recently-adopted Act on Temporary Measures to Combat Instrumentalised Migration. Under this law, the government can, under certain conditions, temporarily restrict the reception of asylum applications and summarily remove migrants at or near the border, if they consider that migration flows are being instrumentalised by a foreign state. The Commissioner recognises the serious challenges faced by Finland because of the manipulation of migration on the part of a neighbouring state. Such manipulation also is to be condemned for placing already vulnerable individuals in situations of precarity. He appreciates the need for and the legitimacy of ensuring security at Finland’s borders. However, the Commissioner remains of the view that the temporary measures, if ever implemented, would entail a violation of several international obligations, including the principle of nonrefoulement, the prohibition of collective expulsion and access to effective remedies. Furthermore, taking into account experience of other states across the world, the Commissioner is unconvinced that, in the longer term the temporary measures would fulfil their intended purpose of thwarting instrumentalisation of migration and the activities of migrant smugglers. While acknowledging the considerable efforts being made by the border guards and others, the Commissioner is concerned about the feasibility of carrying out such complex assessments in compliance with human rights, especially in view of the summary manner in which they are foreseen and lacking other safeguards, such as access to judicial review and remedies with suspensive effect. The Commissioner welcomes and encourages Finland’s intention to continue seeking, at the regional level, long term, coordinated solutions to challenges relating to border security and instrumentalisation of migration. (Source: m.coe.int/finland-end-of-visit-statement)

Greece
September 27, 2024 09:33  Like Poland with its reinforced border with Belarus, countries like Greece, as the first point of contact for many migrants, are seeking to enhance their protection of the European Union’s external borders. Amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East and an increase in migration from Turkey in recent months, Athens recently resubmitted a request to the EU for financial support to further extend the fence. The Greek government has reaffirmed its commitment to extending the border fence with Turkey, designed to curb illegal migration, despite objections from the European Commission. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis had previously made it clear that the fence would be built regardless of whether EU funding is secured, stating, “The new fence will be built with or without the European Union.” The construction of the fence began in 2012 and has since been expanded using national funds. It has drawn renewed attention following Germany’s tougher stance on migration and Hungary’s vocal opposition to the controversial EU migration pact, as well as Budapest’s call to be reimbursed by Brussels for its own border fence. The request was swiftly declined by Brussels, which reiterated its opposition to financing physical barriers such as fences. “Member states must protect the EU’s external borders. They are in the best position to decide how to achieve this in practice, in a way that is fully in line with the EU acquis (body of law), including respect for fundamental rights,’ a Commission spokesperson said in response. Further diplomatic efforts, at least on a bilateral basis, took place earlier this week in New York between Mitsotakis and Turkish President Erdoğan where the pair agreed to continue cooperating in the fight against smuggling networks, a key driver of irregular migration. (Source: rmx *)
* Remix

Sweden
September 27, 2024 4:00 am CET  "Swedish conditions'. Sweden’s security situation risks undermining the reputation of the country at home and abroad. Gang crime is the biggest policy challenge facing the Swedish government today. Some 195 shootings and 72 bombings have taken 30 lives this year alone and have undermined Swedish citizens’ sense of security across the country. Sweden’s domestic crisis is spilling over into neighboring states. Norwegian police believe that 'Swedish drug gangs' are now operating in all of Norway’s 12 police districts after recently expanding operations. Meanwhile, an increasing flow of 'Swedish' criminals into nearby Denmark has been reported by Danish authorities, who note that many of the recruits are very young. In early September, Danish police charged two Swedish teenagers with attempted murder, saying they had been hired by cooperating 'Swedish' and 'Danish' organized crime gangs. The police said they are currently working around 25 similar cases. Denmark’s Hummelgaard called Sweden’s Justice Minister Strömmer to Copenhagen for emergency talks over the issue in late August. To be called out by its Scandinavian neighbors is a shocking and humbling development for Sweden, a country long seen as a European bastion of social stability. After the meeting, Strömmer acknowledged the validity of concerns about 'Swedish' gang criminality affecting its neighbors, along with how "Sweden needs to do more to stop the problem at source". It has increased sentences for gun offenses and is looking at lowering the age at which criminals can be held responsible for their actions. It has also rolled out a new system of stop-and-search zones. But the crackdown has yet to have a serious impact, and the shootings and bomb attacks targeting gang members and their families continue both in Sweden - and abroad. Over recent months, 'Swedish' gangsters have been shot dead by rivals in Bosnia, Turkey and Iraq. (Source: politico)

European Parliament
(27 9 2024)  Hungary holds the Presidency of the Council until December 2024 included. Ministers are holding a series of meetings in parliamentary committees to present the priorities of the Hungarian Presidency of the Council. Hungarian Presidency debriefs EP committees on priorities.       On 19 September, European Union Affairs Minister Bóka highlighted the need to reform the EU for upcoming enlargement and told MEPs that the Presidency envisions two ministerial-level discussions on the future of Europe. He raised concerns about maintaining interinstitutional balance when reforming the Framework Agreement between the EP and the Commission and mentioned the transparency of interest representation, EU accession to the European Court of Human Rights, and the EU Ethics Body as other priorities.    MEPs debated issues including the Hungarian government’s stance on EU values and its compliance with EU Court of Justice judgments. Many speakers raised concerns on the Prime Minister’s recent visits to Moscow and Beijing, while others advocated enhancing national authorities’ role in EU decision-making. Hungary’s announcement that it will seek an opt-out from migration rules and its national assembly’s position that European elections should be abolished were also discussed.       On 23 September, Raisz, Secretary of State for Environmental Affairs and Circular Economy, said the Presidency would push for a more competitive Europe while addressing the triple challenge of reducing pollution, mitigating climate change, and preserving biodiversity.    MEPs quizzed the Minister on the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction target for 2040, the Clean Industrial Deal, COP29, recent floods in Europe, the circular economy, pollution, new genomic techniques, chemicals, the role of forests and soil monitoring.       Takács, Secretary of State for Health, highlighted, as priorities, adopting Council conclusions on cardiovascular diseases and renewing EU cooperation on organ donation and transplants. The Presidency also intends to adopt the updated Council recommendation on smoke-free environments and advance on the pharmaceutical package.    MEPs quizzed the Presidency on measures foreseen on rare diseases, equal access to medicines, shortages in the healthcare workforce, the competitiveness of the EU’s pharmaceutical industry as well as mRNA vaccines.       On 26 September Azbej, State Secretary for the Aid of Persecuted Christians, said that the Presidency would pay particular attention to the humanitarian-peace-development nexus, especially in the Sahel region. Mr Azbej also mentioned as priorities the implementation of the EU’s Samoa Agreement with the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific region, tacking the root causes of migration in partner countries, and supporting the Global Gateway initiative and the Team Europe approach to development.    MEPs raised questions about the credibility of the Presidency’s claims to advocate for human rights and democracy, given the rule of law concerns around the government as well as its ties with China and Russia. They also raised the importance of addressing the global persecution of Christians, and plans for closer cooperation with partner countries and countries of origin on returns and readmissions. (Source: europarl)

Russia
September 27, 2024  „Russia’s autumn conscription cycle starts on 1 October 2024. All eligible Russian men under the age of 30 are required to serve one year of military service”. “To date, conscripts have not been sent to fight in Ukraine. Since the start of the war in February 2022, Russian leaders have stated that conscripts will not be sent to the frontline”. “Legally, conscripts can serve in a combat zone if they have served four months and have been trained in a relevant specialization”. “However, Russia will likely continue to force conscripts to sign contracts following their completion of service to ensure a steady supply of personnel for the war amid high attrition rates,” British Military Intelligence concluded. Conscripts are typically restricted from combat zones, though some have been mistakenly deployed. The Kremlin has been trying to use men from low-income and immigrant backgrounds. Moscow has also recruited tens of thousands of convicts to fight in Ukraine. Putin is resisting calls to send conscripts to Ukraine, fearing domestic unrest. To maintain a steady flow of personnel, Russian leadership is pressuring conscripts to sign military contracts after their service. When it comes to Russia’s own territory, it is another matter. The Russian military has deployed conscripts to the Kursk Oblast to fight the Ukrainian forces there, causing uproar among families. Ukrainian units have captured dozens of Russian conscripts. Russian forces are taking very high casualties on a daily basis. Russia is currently recruiting fewer men than it loses, and that can soon create gaps on the line. (Source: nationalinterest)

United Kingdom
27.09.2024  With space and cyberspace becoming increasingly central in everyday life and a key factor contributing to success in combat, influence in the shared spaces will be yet another vital area of power," the ministry said in the seventh edition of its long-term foresight analysis "Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055."
The report /456 p/:: https://tinyurl.com/vwaz7xz7

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Felismeréseim

- film Jelenits tanár úr pályájáról -

(Forrás: youtube / mediaklikk):

https://tinyurl.com/35m5bsda

Dóczy rendezésében készült Felismeréseim címmel film Jelenits tanár úr pályájáról, amely az életutat mutatja be,
Pilinszky Keresztről keresztre című írásának tükrében,
felhasználva Feszty piarista rendhez kapcsolódó képeit és
felmutatva az Eucharisztia létfontosságát

Jelenits István
(1932. december 16 – 2024. szeptember 26.)

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Europe

Hungary
September 26, 2024 4:06 PM CET  Orbán, the political director of his namesake (but no relation to him), was a guest on a podcast on yesterday where he talked about Ukraine's self-defense against Russian aggression. “Every country has the right to decide its own destiny, and leaders take responsibility,” Orbán said. “We probably wouldn't have done what President Zelenskyy did two and a half years ago, because it's irresponsible,” he said. 'Because obviously he put his country into a war defense, all these people died, all this territory was lost - again, it's their right, it's their sovereign decision, they had the right to do it. But if we had been asked, we would not have advised it.” According to Orbán: “We have to be careful here, and we have to be careful with very precious Hungarian lives. You cannot just throw them away in front of others.” “Hungary's position is clear: we see no sense in the Ukrainian-Russian war” in which hundreds of thousands of people have died 'for nothing.” Orbán has touched on a sensitive point in Hungarian history: October 1956, when a revolution broke out against the totalitarian communist regime, demanding democratization and exit of the Warsaw Pact. But in less than three weeks, Soviet troops invaded the country, and the struggle for freedom left 2,700 dead and 20,000 wounded; 176,000 people fled the country of less than 10 million after the fight was lost. In addition, the new communist regime that ruled Hungary for another 33 years after the Soviet invasion executed 229 civilians, including the prime minister during the revolution, Imre Nagy. (Source: politico)
by Körömi

September 26, 2024 10:58am EDT  Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó discussed with Fox News Digital the potential impact of a second Trump administration as well as hesitations over a Harris administration as the world remains in a fraught security situation. Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó revealed in an interview with Fox News Digital that former President Trump alone is his country’s "hope" for helping bring stability to a fraught and increasingly chaotic international security landscape. "We do believe that actually the game changer here can be the U.S. presidential election, in case President Trump wins," Szijjártó said, referring specifically to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "Because knowing Trump, I think it’s absolutely possible – absolutely likely – that with two phone calls he can end this conflict." "No one else can do so," he insisted. "I think only President Trump has the hope and our hope is all in President Trump to do this." "What we can definitely say is the following: „Politics is based on experience, and we have a clear experience about the term of President Trump in office, and we have clear experience from the terms when the Democrats were there," he said. "From the aspect of the U.S.-Hungary relations and from the aspect of the global security situation, when it comes to the U.S.-Hungary relations, it’s obvious that during President Trump[‘s term] these relations have been on the top – best ever," Szijjártó added. Orbán proved this is a mutual dynamic when he chose to leave the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., earlier this year to instead meet with Trump in Mar-a-Lago in Florida to discuss foreign relations. "Under President Trump, everything was under control," Szijjártó said. "Since President Trump has left office, the whole global security situation is deteriorating, so, I mean, these are experiences." "If we base it on our experience, we say yes, from a perspective of U.S.-Hungary relations, I think President Trump would bring another impetus, freshness, dynamism to this relationship, and I think if President Trump is elected, I think the world has a good chance to become a more peaceful place compared to the current situation." Szijjártó argued that "if you look at an administration which is led by a president and vice president, and we didn’t hear too much initiatives from the vice president … means to me that the vice president was part of the structure 100%." He noted that this comment came from a personal opinion "based on logic" and not the opinion of the Hungarian foreign minister. Hungary has attempted to pursue peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, positioning itself as a chief facilitator for resolving the conflict. Hungary assumed the presidency of the European Union as part of a rotating six-month structure. Orbán seized on the opportunity to visit both Russian President Putin and President Zelenskyy within the first days after taking the seat, but European leaders moved quickly to stress that the role is purely ceremonial and that Hungary had no official capacity to represent Europe in any peace talks. Szijjártó blasted those who criticized the Hungarian effort, claiming "those who have been criticizing us, the prime minister, the peace mission, have clearly been the pro-war politicians." "They just simply don't like that there is a country, there is a government, there is a prime minister in Europe who speaks direct language, who speaks honestly and who is not a hostage of the liberal mainstream," Szijjártó said. "Therefore, it is very unpleasant and inconvenient for them that we are there and that we act, that we speak, that we make actions." Szijjártó resisted the idea that Ukraine should join NATO, noting that "including Ukraine into NATO would put us in a totally exposed situation, security-wise, because it would mean that NATO could be easily dragged into a war against Russia at any time, and this is something that we don’t want." "Everyone knows that any kind of direct confrontation between NATO and Russia would mean an outbreak of Third World War immediately, and we have joined the NATO to enhance our security and not to make ourselves exposed," he said. /video, photo/ (Source: foxnews): https://tinyurl.com/yttx39xm
by Aitken

Russia
Sep 26, 2024 at 11:16 AM EDT  Authorities in Russia have said that Kyiv has fired drones into Russian regions bordering Ukraine in attacks that follow Putin's suggestion he wants to change the criteria for Moscow to use nuclear weapons. Putin told Russia's Security Council meeting yesterday that any aggression by a country without nuclear weapons 'with the participation of a nuclear state is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on Russia." ’Putin announced that Moscow may consider the use of nuclear weapons in response to a massive launch of missiles or drones crossing its state border’. The governor of Russia's Oryol, Klychkov, said that a Ukrainian drone had been shot down over the region overnight yesterday. Russia's Defense Ministry reported that seven drones had been destroyed over the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions that border Ukraine, although there were no reports of damage. Russia in turn has continued with its drone strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. Over 15 drones were spotted near the capital, 10 of which were downed by air defenses, the Kyiv City Military Administration said. No time frame has been given for the nuclear doctrine changes. (Source: newsweek)

North America

United States
Sptember 26, 2024 1:54 PM CET  U.S. President Biden announced $7.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine before meeting with President Zelenskyy at the White House. According to Biden's statement, the U.S. will allocate $5.5 billion through his presidential drawdown authority to fund equipment for Ukraine and another $2.4 billion in security assistance to provide the country with additional air defense, uncrewed aerial systems and air-to-ground munitions, among other equipment. Biden will also provide Ukraine with Joint Standoff Weapon long-range munitions to improve long-range strike capabilities. The U.S. will also refurbish and provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defense battery and additional Patriot missiles. They will expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots. Beyond security assistance, Washington also announced an international effort to “disrupt a global cryptocurrency network” that it said was used to counter Russian sanctions evasion and money laundering. The U.S. president announced that he will convene a summit-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany next month. (Source: politico)
by Körömi

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Europe

Czechia
(Wednesday), 25.09.2024  In an interview with The New York Times on Monday, Czech Republic President Pavel spoke about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for realism in Kyiv's war objectives. "Ukraine will have to be realistic about its prospects of recovering territory occupied by Russia," Pavel said, pointing to the growing fatigue felt across various sectors due to the 31-month-long conflict. In his assessment of the war's most likely outcome, the Czech leader said: "A part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily.' He cautioned that this 'temporary' situation could last for years, citing historical examples such as the former Soviet Union occupation of the Baltic states. Pavel expressed skepticism about either side achieving their maximalist goals. "To talk about a defeat of Ukraine or defeat of Russia, it will simply not happen," he said, adding: "So the end will be somewhere in between." (Source: anadoluagency)

European Council
September 25, 2024 10:00 AM  The Council has adopted, by common accord with the President-elect of the Commission, the list of persons whom it proposes for appointment as members of the Commission until 31 October 2029. (Source: eureporter)
The list: https://tinyurl.com/2s7rsa5c

Russia
(Wednesday ), Sep 25, 2024 3:59 PM EDT  Speaking at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council that considered changes in Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, President Putin announced today, that a revised version of the document states that an attack against his country by a nonnuclear power with the 'participation or support of a nuclear power' will be seen as their 'joint attack on the Russian Federation.' The change in the doctrine follows Putin’s warning to the U.S. and other NATO allies that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons to hit Russian territory would mean that Russia and NATO are at war. The threat, outlined in the nuclear doctrine’s revision was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Putin emphasized that Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack posing a 'critical threat to our sovereignty,' a vague formulation that leaves broad room for interpretation. The current doctrine says Moscow could use its nuclear arsenal “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.” Putin emphasized that the revised doctrine spells out conditions for using nuclear weapons in greater detail, noting they could be used in case of a massive air attack. “We will consider such a possibility when we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack assets and them crossing our state border,” Putin added, citing 'strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other flying vehicles.' Putin also said the revised doctrine envisages that Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to an aggression against its ally Belarus, adding that he has agreed on the issue with Belarusian President Lukashenko. Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian territory with missiles and drones in response to Moscow’s attacks. President Zelenskyy has said he will seek permission from his allies in the U.S. and Europe to use the longer-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, another red line for some of Ukraine’s supporters. The Biden administration has said it hasn’t given Kyiv permission for strikes with U.S. weapons deep inside Russia. “Regardless of whether you think this is a bluff or not, it’s never good when a major nuclear power loosens the conditions for nuclear use in its declaratory policy,” said Charap, senior political scientist at RAND. Russia is making slow but steady gains in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is seeking to discourage stronger Western support for Kyiv. (Source: pbs * / Associated Press)
* The Public Broadcasting Service, an American public broadcaster and television network based in Arlington, Virginia.

September 25, 2024 05:03 GMT  From the beginning of the full-scale invasion, analysts have noted that nonethnic Russians have been disproportionately represented among the country's military casualties. 'More soldiers from the central Russian regions of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan have died than any other region in the country', according to a confirmed tally of war deaths compiled by RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service. Bashkortostan, a mid-Volga republic with a population a little over 4 million, has 2,981 confirmed deaths, according to RFE/RL's accounting, which used announcements on social media, obituaries, and other open sources to gather the data. In Tatarstan, which has a similar population, RFE/RL registered 2,691 deaths from the region. Those figures are reflected in the BBC Russian/Mediazona tally, which used a similar methodology: 2,705 confirmed deaths in Bashkortostan, and 2,259 in Tatarstan. In addition to mobilized soldiers sent to fight in Ukraine, other populations include prison inmates and private military company mercenaries, as well as "kontraktniki"- men who voluntarily sign contracts to fight, induced by extraordinarily high wages and veterans benefits, including for widows and survivors. Among kontraktniki, Bashkortostan leads Russia in the number of confirmed deaths: 965, according to the RFE/RL tally. Tatarstan ranked second, with 557 volunteer deaths. By comparison, only 135 volunteers from Moscow - with an official population of more than 13 million - have been confirmed as killed. The confirmed figures are assumed to be a major undercount given the difficulty in identifying deaths amid official secrecy. On September 20, the BBC Russian/Mediazona project - which tracks war deaths by monitoring funeral notices and other open-source data - reported it had confirmed more than 70,000 killed soldiers nationwide. Overall, BBC Russian/Mediazona estimated the total number of casualties nationwide ranging from 107,000 to 155,000. In the early phases of the war, the average Russian war death was a contract soldier in his early 20s, the project noted. Now, however, typical deaths are volunteers in their 40s, 50s, and even 60s, 'most often without military experience or specialized training.' (Source: rferl *)
* Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, an American government-funded international media organization.
Note: ’RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service is the only major international news provider reporting in the Tatar and Bashkir languages to audiences in the Russian Federation’s multiethnic, Muslim-majority Volga-Ural region’.

United Kingdom
25 September 2024 - 00:32  The UK government has announced plans to deploy 700 troops to Cyprus in preparation for a potential evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon, amid escalating violence between Israel and Hezbollah. British nationals are urged by Foreign Office to leave Lebanon now. British troops in Cyprus will be backed by Border Force and Foreign Office officials, while the Royal Air Force has transport aircraft and helicopters on standby. Additionally, two Royal Navy ships, RFA Mounts Bay and HMS Duncan, remain stationed in the eastern Mediterranean for support. During a similar conflict in 2006, British nationals were evacuated from Lebanon by sea. (Source: knews.kathimerini * / ITV News)
* the English edition of Kathimerini Cyprus

Africa

Sahel
(25 September 2024) 7:21  The Sahel has the potential to become a base for global jihad, like Afghanistan or Libya in the past. In Bamako, Mali, a group of terrorists attempted to infiltrate the Feladie gendarmerie school on the outskirts of the capital early on 17 September morning. The jihadis struck just before dawn prayers. They killed dozens of students at the elite police training academy, stormed Bamako’s airport and set the presidential jet on fire. It showed that jihadist groups with links to al Qaeda or islamic state, whose largely rural insurgency has killed thousands of civilians and displaced millions in Sahel countries Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, can also strike at the heart of power. Conflict was a major factor behind the increase in migration from the West African coast, with rising numbers of women and families seen along the route. The number of violent events involving jihadi groups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger has almost doubled since 2021. Since the start of this year, there have been 224 attacks a month on average, up from 128 in 2021. In Burkina Faso, perhaps the worst affected of all, jihadists affiliated with al Qaeda slaughtered hundreds of civilians in a day on 24 August in the town of Barsalogho, two hours from the capital Ouagadougou. Burkina Faso topped the Global Terrorism Index for the first time this year, with fatalities rising 68% to 1,907 – a quarter of all terrorism-linked deaths worldwide. About half of Burkina Faso is now beyond government control. The two, big veteran terrorist groups are gaining ground. JNIM, the al Qaeda-aligned faction most active in the Sahel, had 5,000-6,000 fighters while 2,000-3,000 militants were linked to islamic state. Their declared goal is to establish Islamic rule. Jihadists use a mixture of coercion and the offer of basic services, including local courts, to install their systems of governance over rural communities that have long complained of neglect by weak, corrupt, central governments. The jihadi groups operate in different areas, at times fighting each other, though they have also struck localised, non-aggression pacts. The groups receive some financial support, training and guidance from their respective global leaderships, but also collect taxes in areas they control and seize weapons after battles with government forces. Conflict in the Sahel is contributing to a sharp rise in migration from the region towards Europe. The UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) data shows the number of migrants arriving in Europe from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal rose 62% to 17,300 in the first six months of 2024 from 10,700 a year earlier. The swathes of territory under jihadist control also risk becoming training grounds and launchpads for more attacks on major cities such as Bamako, or neighbouring states and Western targets, in the region or beyond. Then who’re dealing with a jihadi state or multiple jihadi states in the Sahel? The military juntas that replaced Western-backed governments have since 2020 swapped French and US military assistance for Russians, mainly from Wagner’s mercenary outfit, but have continued to lose ground. The junta in Niger last year ordered the US to leave a sprawling desert drone base in Agadez. US troops and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) used drones to track jihadists and shared intelligence with allies such as the French, who launched air strikes against the militants, ’and West African armies’. The Americans were booted out after they angered Niger’s coup leaders by refusing to share intelligence and warning them against working with the Russians. Nobody else filled the gap of providing effective air surveillance or air support, so the jihadis are roaming freely in those three countries. European governments are divided on how to respond to West Africa becoming the world’s terrorism hotspot, with Southern European nations who receive most migrants favouring to keep communication with the juntas open. Others object 'because of human rights and democracy concerns'. (Source: euractiv)
by Gotev

Asia

Israel
September 25, 2024  The Israeli military said today it was calling up two reserve brigades for operational missions to the north, where its forces are involved in cross-border clashes with the Lebanese group Hezbollah. An Israeli infantry brigade typically has about 1,000 to 2,000 soldiers, while an armoured tank brigade has about 100 tanks. (Source: barrons / Agence France Presse)

NATO

September 25, 2024 1:24 PM GMT+2  NATO plans to coordinate the transport of a large number of wounded troops away from front lines potentially via hospital trains 'in case of a war with Russia'. The future scenario for medical evacuations will differ from allies' experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, as air evacuations may not be feasible. Western militaries would likely be faced with a much larger war zone, a higher number of injured troops and at least a temporary lack of air superiority close to the front lines, the German Lieutenant-General Sollfrank, the head of NATO's logistics command said. The German military has said ’it expects Russia to be able to attack a NATO country as soon as 2029’, while Russian President Putin casts the West as the aggressor for arming Ukraine. Sollfrank runs NATO's Joint Support and Enabling Command (JSEC), tasked with coordinating the swift movement of troops and tanks across Europe as well as logistical preparations such as the storage of munitions on NATO's eastern flank. Recently, JSEC - which is based in the southern German town of Ulm - staged an exercise in coordination of patient flows. Differing medical regulations between countries are another hurdle to overcome, Sollfrank said. A "military medical Schengen", akin to the political Schengen zone that allows free movement within most of the European Union, could be a solution. It could entail an area of free passage for sensitive medications such as narcotics or strong painkillers, which would be needed to treat wounded troops but whose cross-border transport is regulated. (Source: reuters)

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Europe

Hungary
24/09/2024 - 18:50 GMT+2  European Affairs Minister Bóka insists 'he' won't pay a €200m fine imposed by EU courts for restricting asylum rights, though Brussels has triggered a special procedure to deduct the sum from EU funds. But the government is willing to engage in a "constructive way" with Brussels to ensure compliance with the ECJ ruling, Bóka said after a ministerial meeting in Brussels, which he had chaired as EU Council Presidency. The minister said Budapest was looking into "legal possibilities on how certain expenses that we have incurred in the protection of the border could be offset" against the penalty. Hungarian officials say they have spent €2 billion since 2015 to curb migration, but Brussels has denied their claim that Budapest is now owed that sum back. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called the fine "outrageous and acceptable’ and ratcheted up his eurosceptic rhetoric, while his ministers have sparked a further row by threatening to bus migrants to Brussels. (Source: euronews *)
* Euronews, a European television news network, headquartered in Lyon, France.
by Liboreiro
Note: False quotation of Hungarian PM in the original text. Mr Orbán has called the fine 'outrageous and unacceptable'

Germany
Sep 24, 2024 At the NATO anniversary summit in July, for the first time since the 1980s, Germany agreed to the stationing of three types of U.S. missiles (under U.S. command) on its territory, starting in 2026: The Tomahawk Block 4 cruise missile, with a range of just over 1,000 miles; the Standard Missile-6 (SM-6), with a range of 230 miles, and intended chiefly for an air-defense role; and a Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHP) which is still under development, and will have a range of more than 1,800 miles. They are conventionally armed, but nuclear-capable, though to convert them to this role would require a new agreement. This agreement said nothing about whether Germany will have any control over the missiles on its soil. Two of these missiles will be able to strike deep into Russia, and both will be able to hit Moscow. The stationing of the Tomahawks and LRHPs is in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear (INF) Treaty of 1987, which bans the stationing of ground-based missiles with a range of between 500 and 5,000 kilometers (310-3 400 miles). The Trump administration withdrew from the INF in 2019, and Russia then suspended its own compliance. The Biden administration has made no attempt to negotiate a return to the treaty. Both the Trump and Obama administrations alleged that the Russian SRBM Iskander ballistic missile (nuclear-capable but not nuclear-armed), with a declared range of under 500 km (within the INF treaty limit) and stationed in Kaliningrad in fact had a longer range and thus violated the treaty. This allegation was never independently confirmed. After the Russian seizure of Crimea in 2014, the deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations made it impossible to resolve this question through negotiations. Rather strangely (in a democracy), the latest German government agreement to station the new missiles was made without any prior discussion in the German parliament, the Bundestag, or any prior national debate. Today, the Russian government has neither the intention nor the capability to launch the sort of premeditated conventional attack on NATO that the new missiles are supposed to counter. Russian nuclear “saber-rattling” is intended to deter NATO from intervening directly in Ukraine, and thereby starting a NATO-Russia war. There remains however an acute risk that an unplanned mutual escalation could lead to war. In this case, U.S. missiles firing into Russia from Germany could easily be the tripwire for nuclear catastrophe. This issue is contributing to regional tensions in Germany, and it can be expected that it will play a major role in next year’s national elections. According to the latest poll, 49 percent of German public are opposed to the missiles and 45 percent in favor. In eastern Germany the percentage opposed to the treaty rises to 74 percent, with only 23 percent in favor. The foreign and security establishment, and most of the political establishment, are firmly in favor. The Social Democratic Party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz is split on the issue and opposed the stationing of the Pershings.. The right-wing Alternative fuer Deutchland (AfD) and left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are strongly opposed. In the 1980s opposition (sometimes violent) over the stationing of U.S. Pershing II medium-range nuclear ballistic missile contributed greatly to the rise of the anti-nuclear German Green Party. 40 years later, it is now among the ’strongest’ advocates for the stationing of the Tomahawks. The Greens suffered crushing defeats in the latest eastern German elections. The only sensible purpose of allowing the deployment of Tomahawks and hypersonic missiles in Germany is to offer to give them up again, as part of a new nuclear arms reduction agreement with Russia. That after all was the only positive result of the deployment of Pershing II missiles in West Germany in the 1980s. The decision to deploy the Pershings in 1979 was accompanied by a declaration of a desire to negotiate an agreement. No such declaration has accompanied the latest decision. After former Soviet President Gorbachev came to power, Washington and Moscow in 1989 signed the INF Treaty, under which the Pershings were withdrawn and scrapped in return for Moscow doing the same with its intermediate nuclear missiles. A similar agreement today, in which the U.S. cancels the planned new missile deployment in Germany in return for Russia withdrawing its missiles based in Kaliningrad and Belarus would be of immense benefit to Germany, Europe and the world. Unfortunately, for the past generation, the entire trajectory of arms control agreements has been in the opposite direction, towards an uncontrolled arms race. The process of the disintegration of arms control agreements began in 2002, with the Bush administration’s withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Berlin did not state its objections forcefully in public, or make any public attempt to create a bloc of European states to defend the treaty. This marked one important step in the establishment of a belief in Moscow that Germany never would make any serious move to defend European security interests if it required a public confrontation with Washington. The U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty was followed by the deployment of U.S. ABM systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, with the blatantly mendacious claim - in which the German government once again acquiesced - that this was directed not against Russia, but rather a hypothetical threat from Iran. Moscow threatened to respond with the deployment of new intermediate missiles, and did so, while claiming to remain (just) within the terms of the INF. According to Russian sources, Moscow was willing to compromise on intermediate missiles as part of wider talks on NATO limitations demanded by Russia in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine, but Washington refused to consider seriously negotiating on this basis. The result is that Europe is now altogether without missile limitation agreements at a time when not merely is war raging in Ukraine, but Washington is considering acceding to Ukrainian and British pressure to allow British Storm Shadow cruise missiles (guided by U.S. targeting) to be fired into Russia. The deployment of U.S. missiles in Germany therefore involves the following propositions: Washington is actively considering helping to fire U.S.-manufactured Ukrainian missiles into Russia; U.S. intermediate missiles in Germany will be able to strike deep into Russia; Russian intermediate missiles can strike Germany but not the U.S.; Germany will have no control over the U.S. missiles on its soil. This combination makes many Germans extremely nervous. (Source: responsiblestatecraft *)
Responsible Statecraft, the online American magazine of the Quincy Institute
by Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was formerly a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and in the War Studies Department of King’s College London.

European Union
24 Sep 2024  With a budget of €12 million, the European Commission has announced a new EU-funded project, called Supporting at-risk researchers with fellowships in Europe (Safe), to provide support for researchers facing threats to their safety. The project will offer two-year fellowships to 60 researchers with or without refugee status, allowing them to continue their academic work within the EU. The project aims to develop and test processes for assessing the risks researchers face and establish mechanisms to match them with EU-based host institutions. It will also offer training and career development opportunities to the researchers through their hosts. Applications, which must be submitted by the hosts rather than the researchers, will open on 18 November and close on 20 January next year. A matchmaking system will be available from October to help at-risk scholars find hosts, with placements expected to begin in spring next year. The Safe project is being implemented by a coalition of academic organisations, led by the German Academic Exchange Service, in partnership with institutions including Campus France and the Mediterranean Universities Union. (Source: researchprofessionalnews *)
* The Research Professional News is an editorially independent part of Clarivate - Headquartered Philadelphia, United States and London, United Kingdom - American-British analytics company that operates a collection of subscription-based services. 

Africa

Mali
(24 September 2024 13:08)  Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have announced a new partnership with Russia to acquire telecoms and remote-sensing satellites. The three West African countries, run by military juntas, have been struggling to defeat Islamist insurgencies for years and have turned to Russia for military support. Ministers from the three countries met officials from Russia’s aerospace agency Roscosmos in Mali’s capital, Bamako, on Monday, to discuss implementation plans. The technology will boost border surveillance and national security in all three countries, says Mali’s Finance Minister, Sanou. He also said it would help them to monitor and respond to floods, droughts, fires and other emergencies. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso last year formed the Alliance of Sahel States. Russia has been seeking to expand its footprint in Africa, especially in the Sahel, since relations between these countries and their Western allies broke down. (Source: bbc)

Asia

Lebanon
24 September 2024 (15:22)  Israeli strikes force tens of thousands to flee their homes yesterday and overnight in southern Lebanon, UN agencies have said. They were ramping up their aid in Lebanon to address a situation that was already dire before the escalation. Some 100,000 people living near the border with Israel had already been displaced since October last year.Some 500 people have crossed from Lebanon to war-torn Syria. Israeli air strikes killed at least 558 people, including 50 children and 94 women, since early yesterday, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry. At least four healthcare workers were killed and 16 paramedics injured, World Health Organization said. The hospitals have been crazy challenged in managing the number of injuries since last week," WHO's representative in Lebanon, Abubakar, told. More than 90 percent of the wounds suffered last week when pagers used by Hezbollah exploded across Lebanon ’are on the face and limbs, especially hands’  (Source: trtworld)

Japan
(24 September 2024 14:45)  A Russian Il-38 military patrol plane entered Japanese airspace for up to a minute over three instances near the northernmost main island of Hokkaido, above Rebun Island, the defence ministry said. Russia and Japan have been locked in a territorial dispute over islands near Hokkaido that were seized by the Soviet Union during the final days of World War II. An undisclosed number of F-15 and F-35 fighter jets fired warning flares at the Russian aircraft after it apparently ignored their warnings, defence minister Kihara said, calling the use of flares a legitimate response to the alleged airspace violation. Earlier in September, another Russian military aircraft flew around southern Japanese airspace. It was after a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance aircraft briefly violated Japan’s southern airspace in late August. Japanese defence officials have voiced concerns over Russia and China stepping up military cooperation in the region, with Chinese warplanes engaging in assertive activity around Japanese waters. These concerns have prompted Tokyo to significantly reinforce the defences of southwestern Japan, including remote islands that are considered key to Japan’s defence strategy in the region. (Source: independent)

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Europe

France
Sep 23, 2024, 10:00 AM  Europe will have to review its relations with Russia sometime in the future, French President Macron said. Addressing an international conference on peace in Paris, he has called for "thinking about peace in Europe of tomorrow," bearing in mind that Europe "is not confined to the European Union and NATO." "We are trying to develop the European political community, but we need to think about a new organization of Europe and then review our ties with Russia, and think about peace in this [European] continent," Macron said. His speech was aired on the Elysee Palace’s X page. Macron called on European and world nations to focus on how 'to build a new world order.' The French president called for a bigger presence of "densely populated countries, which did not exist when the current world order was only forming" in international organizations. He said that he plans to raise this topic in his speech at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly. The European Political Community, an international forum, was set up in 2022 at Macron’s initiative to hold discussions on Europe’s future. (Source: mehrnews *)
* Mehr News Agency, a semi-official news agency of the government of Iran. It is headquartered in Tehran

Asia

Israel
(Monday ), September 23, 2024, 10:37 PM  The Israeli military expanded its Lebanon campaign with hundreds of airstrikes today. Dozens of Israeli warplanes struck more than 1,300 targets in southern Lebanon today morning. At least 492 people were killed and more than 1,600 wounded, the Lebanon Ministry of Public Health said. Of those killed, 35 were children and 58 were women. Hezbollah returned fire across the border. There were about 250 launches from Lebanon into Israel today, according to Israeli Emergency Officials. Some munitions were intercepted and some fell in open areas, the force wrote. Israel also launched a targeted strike on a residential building in Bir al-Abd, a southern suburb of Beirut. Hezbollah officials said senior commander Karaki - who Israeli sources confirmed was the target of the Beirut strike - survived the attack. Israeli communities in the north of the country are braced for further escalation. The IDF issued new security guidance on yesterday, closing schools and beaches in the region, while the Rambam Hospital in Haifa transferred patients to an underground facility. Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said that Israel will act with full force to change the current situation in southern Lebanon. Following the intense strikes in the south of the country today morning, Hagari said the IDF would soon start hitting targets in the eastern Bekaa Valley - another Hezbollah stronghold. Israeli leaders are also demanding that Hezbollah withdraw beyond the Litani River - some 18 miles north of the Israeli border - as stipulated in a 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution that sought to end the last major cross-border war. I want to clarify Israel's policy - we do not wait for a threat, we anticipate it, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed in a statement. (Source: abcnews *)
* ABC News, the news division of the American television network ABC. Headquarters New York City

21:36 BST, (Monday), 23 September 2024  'War on five fronts.' Prior to the October 7 attacks, Hamas is believed to have had some 20,000-30,000 fighters making up the ranks of its militarised wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam brigades. The militia was stocked with all manner of small arms and heavy weapons obtained from across the Middle East - particularly Iran, Syria and Libya - and is thought to have had some 30,000 short and medium-range rockets at its disposal. Now, after almost one year of intense fighting and widespread destruction in Gaza at the hands of the IDF, Hamas' military capabilities will have been considerably weakened. In the short term, Hamas is unlikely to be able to mount any kind of damaging offensive against Israeli positions - somewhere between 9,000-12,000 Hamas fighters remain active in Gaza, with their tactics having shifted to selective attacks and guerrilla-style warfare. Israel's deployment of troops in the Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Egypt has also served to crack down on smuggling efforts to resupply Hamas fighters via their intricate tunnel network. Hamas’ capacity to continue waging guerrilla-style attacks, including bombings, suicide attacks on Israeli troops in Gaza remains. Its extensive tunnel network suggests Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups could feasibly attempt another operation on Israel soil, and its remaining stockpile of missiles and rockets could deal damage to Israeli targets if launched as part of a coordinated aerial strike with Hezbollah and Iranian assets. Jewish state faces all-out conflict against its Middle Eastern enemies after killing 274 people in Lebanon today alone in latest Hezbollah strikes. The 'new phase' of war against Hezbollah had begun last week. Israel's hawkish defence minister Gallant and IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Hagari say they 'will do whatever is needed' to cripple Hezbollah's military capabilities and allow displaced residents from Israel's northern territories to return home safely. Lebanon accuses it of carrying out an 'extermination.' Hezbollah's leader Nasrallah has vowed to continue fighting until a ceasefire in Gaza is agreed upon, with deputy leader Qassem declaring the group is now entering 'an open-ended battle of reckoning' with Israel. Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) is estimating that the Hezbollah group's arsenal counts 150,000 to 200,000 rockets, including 'hundreds' of precision missiles and thousands of drones. Hezbollah also boasts a range of anti-tank and anti-air systems, dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles, and claims to have up to 100,000 active fighters - though INSS estimates the number is more likely 25,000 to 50,000. It has an extensive tunnel network along the Lebanese-Israeli border which serves as a strategic asset for clandestine movement, storage, and guerrilla warfare. Israel's military capability is still superior. It has long been supported by the US with $3.3 billion in congressionally mandated annual funding, plus another $500 million toward missile defence technology that protects its skies from rockets and drones. The Jewish state also spends more than 5 per cent of its GDP on the IDF. Jerusalem would assuredly emerge victorious thanks to its technological capabilities and raw numeric advantage in terms of firepower and manpower. Hezbollah would be able to inflict massive damage. Its missile and drone arsenal is large enough to quickly overwhelm Israel's air defences if deployed in earnest, and the thousands upon thousands of Hezbollah fighters that could stream into northern Israel would be continuously supported by air and ground supply routes from Iran via Iraq and Syria. Such a war would also spell disaster for civilians in both Israel and Lebanon - particularly citizens of the latter, many of whom have long been mired in poverty. Lebanon has struggled with years of political and economic crises that left it indebted, without a stable electricity supply, a proper banking system and with rampant poverty. UN agencies estimate an 'uncontrolled conflict' between Israel and Hezbollah would displace up to one million people - almost a fifth of Lebanon's population - and the country is already reliant on meagre stockpiles of food and fuel. Hennis-Plasschaert, the UN's special coordinator for Lebanon, warned today: 'With the region on the brink of an imminent catastrophe, it cannot be overstated enough: there is NO military solution that will make either side safer.' Hezbollah is often referred to as the 'jewel in the crown' of Iran's Axis of Resistance that encompasses Hamas; the Lebanese group; the Houthi movement in Yemen; various Shi'ite armed groups in Iraq; and Syria. The heavily armed Houthi rebel group - a Shi'ite militia - stormed to prominence in Yemen in 2014 and has cemented 10 years of strict rule over roughly two-thirds of the country's population. Its leaders vowed to come to Hamas' defence following Israel's retaliation to the October 7 attacks and began targeting a slew of Israel and Western-affiliated cargo ships and oil tankers in the Red Sea with drones, missiles and in some cases armed boarding parties. They have also fired a small number of missiles and drones at Israel directly, with one drone in July killing a man and wounding four others in Tel Aviv. Israel should expect more strikes in the future 'as we approach the first anniversary of the October 7 operation,' Houthi military spokesman Sarea said earlier this month. A number of other Iran-backed militia groups across Iraq and Syria have limited capabilities to launch strikes against Israeli targets, with Hezbollah maintaining a strong footprint in Syria from which it could launch attacks on Israel's northeast. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) - an umbrella group of various Iran-backed Shi'ite militia forces - announced yesterday it had launched drones at IDF targets in the Israeli-occupied Jordan Valley, and vowed to escalate its attacks as the anniversary of October 7 approaches. Former Israeli intelligence official and leading regional analyst Melamed told that Israel's attacks on Hezbollah in the past week have pushed the conflict into a new phase and removed any room for manoeuvre. 'We are at a pivotal moment in both the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, but also the war between Israel and Iran, where the regime must make a choice: risk it all or step back from the brink. 'Within the realm of diplomatic solutions, a positive result for Israel could be Iran pressuring Hamas leaders to accept the ceasefire deal on the table, return the hostages, and end the war in Gaza. 'Another option could be for Hezbollah to bifurcate itself from the conflict in Gaza and enter into a separate diplomatic arrangement with Israel only covering the skirmish in the north. 'But it would be tough for Hezbollah to do so after 11 months of crossfire with Israel and Nasrallah's statements that Hezbollah would only cease after an agreement is in place with Hamas.' In a full-scale conflict, Jerusalem may be forced to contend with attacks from its chief adversary - Iran. A full-scale war with Iran and its proxies could ultimately result in the destruction of the state of Israel. 'Iran and its proxies have 250,000 missiles, rockets, and drones encircling Israel, which means about 4,000 munitions hitting the Israeli home front on a daily basis. 'Population centres, Haifa Bay, water and electricity facilities, gas fields [in the Mediterranean Sea], IDF bases, and strategic civilian infrastructure... A regional war can ruin the State of Israel,' Brik, a former Major General in the IDF, told the Jerusalem Post. The Islamic Republic has already launched one serious strike on Israel since October 7, sending a salvo of some 200 missiles and drones soaring towards Israeli targets in April following an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. Analysts at the time largely agreed the Iranian attack was merely symbolic - designed to display Tehran's willingness for military engagement. With Hezbollah now being subjected to a brutal assault by the IDF, Tehran may be more inclined to come to its defence after former Hamas chief Haniyeh was assassinated on July 31, as he lay in his bed hours after attending the inauguration of Iranian president Pezeshkian in Tehran. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed to take revenge. The Islamic Republic is enjoying an advantage in terms of manpower and the variety of their artillery systems. Any meaningful direct conflict between the two is likely to take the form of aerial assaults by air forces, missiles and drones, given their considerable geographic separation. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) certainly has the upper hand over its adversary, flying US-manufactured combat aircraft including the F-35 stealth fighter-bomber, and F-15 and F-16 fighter jets specifically designed according to IAF requirements. It is also believed to have more combat aircraft at its disposal, outstripping the Islamic Republic of Iran's Air Force (IRIAF) which is made up of older generation F-14 Tomcat fighters, Iranian-manufactured jets based on the aged US F-4 and F-5 series planes, and an assortment of Russian and Chinese manufactured combat aircraft. The real Iranian threat is its array of missiles and highly capable drones which could be used to deal punishing strikes on Israel. The Islamic Republic has thousands upon thousands of long-range and precision-guided missiles alongside hundreds of thousands of mid-range cruise missiles. The worst-case scenario feared by Israeli defence experts is a coordinated attack in which Iran, Hezbollah and other allies launch wave after wave of missile and drone strikes that overwhelm Israel's air defences and devastate towns and cities. Bowen, Professor of International Security at King's College London's Department of War Studies, told that Iran would most probably face an uncontrollable response from Israel backed by the might of the US military, should it decide to launch a major aerial assault. 'It has been widely reported of course that Tehran wants to avoid such a direct conflict with Israel and the US. This is likely because the Iranian leadership knows that it might be very difficult for it to control the national and regional repercussions of such a development,' he concluded. Retired US Army Colonel Sweet and security expert Toth added that ’Israel could seek to deploy its nuclear weapons’ should it be faced with a full-scale direct strike from Iran. 'Any such hit could see Israel deploying one or all of its long-range assets. F-35 stealth fighter-bombers, precision deep-strike ICBMs and/or the Israeli's nuclear equipped submarines. 'The US is highly likely to respond with a direct hit on Iran potentially using the full array of military assets – cruise missiles, B-52 bombers, subs, and carrier and/or land-based fighter-bombers. In this scenario, this attack would likely be closely coordinated with Israel, if not performed jointly.' US Defense Secretary Austin last month ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups - the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Theodore Roosevelt - to deploy to the Middle East. An Air Force F-22 Raptor squadron also arrived in the region along with cruise missile submarine USS Georgia. (Source: dailymail *)
* The Daily Mail British daily newspaper's MailOnline news website. Headquarters London.

North America

United States
12:44 AM CEST, (Monday), September 24, 2024  In light of increased tension in the Middle East, the U.S. is sending 'a small number of additional troops' to the Middle East in response to a sharp spike in violence between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon that has raised the risk of a greater regional war. The U.S. now has about 40,000 troops in the region. Today, the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, two Navy destroyers and a cruiser set sail from Norfolk, Virginia, headed to the Sixth Fleet area in Europe on a regularly scheduled deployment. The ships’ departure opens up the possibility that the U.S. could keep both the Truman and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which is in the Arabian Gulf, in the region in case more violence breaks out. A decision is expected soon, possibly this week, on whether the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier will stay in the Middle East or continue to the Asia-Pacific. The new deployments come after significant strikes by Israeli forces against targets inside Lebanon that have killed hundreds. Israel is preparing to conduct further operations. Having two carrier strike groups in the Middle East at the same time has been relatively rare in recent years. But as violence has spiked between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah, both Iranian-backed militant groups, the Biden administration has ordered the Navy to have the carriers and their warships overlap for several weeks on a couple occasions. It will take the Truman aircraft carrier about two weeks to cross the Atlantic Ocean and get into the Mediterranean Sea. Navy warships are scattered across the region, from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf of Oman, and both Air Force and Navy fighter jets are strategically based at several locations to be better prepared to respond to any attacks. The State Department is warning Americans to leave Lebanon as the risk of a regional war increases. The American presence in the Middle East is designed both to help defend Israel and protect U.S. and allied personnel and assets. There is already a Marine amphibious ready group in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard, which is expected to be able to assist in an evacuation if needed. (Source: apnews *)
* Associated Press, an American news agency headquartered in New York City

(Monday, 23 September 2024 11:24 AM)  The Zelensky’s visit to the US - where he is also due to attend the UN General Assembly - coincides with efforts from the White House to prepare a new $375m military aid package for Ukraine. In a statement ahead of the visit, he previewed three elements to his ’victory’ plan. Zelensky listed further weapons donations for the military, diplomatic efforts to force Russia into peace, and to hold Moscow accountable for the full-scale invasion in 2022. When asked by reporters on Sunday whether he had made a decision on allowing Ukraine to use US-made long-range weapons, President Biden answered "no". Trump has previously flagged his own plan to end the war "within 24 hours" if he is elected in November, but has provided no details other than to label US support for Ukraine as a waste of money. According to Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who met Trump in March, the former president said he would "not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war. That is why the war will end". The US has been the largest foreign donor to Ukraine, and to date has provided $56bn for Ukraine's defence. (Source: bbc *)
* The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), headquartered in London, England

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Europe

European Union
September 2024. The future of European competitiveness: Part A | A competitiveness strategy for Europe / Mario Draghi - 66 p.
(Source: commission.europa): https://tinyurl.com/4jp6ndvc

22nd September 2024  Even arch-Eurocrats are admitting that Brussels is leading Europe to ruin. The largely unspoken trade-off involved in membership of the European Union is that democracy and national sovereignty are sacrificed in return for economic prosperity. Member states give up much of their control over critical policy areas to an unelected, technocratic elite who are entrusted with delivering higher living standards and productivity. But Brussels is not keeping its part of the bargain – and hasn’t for some time. Worse, the EU economy is about to endure decades of ‘slow agony’. This is the grim prognosis of one of Europe’s most senior technocrats, Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank and ex-prime minister of Italy. Last week, Draghi unveiled a 400-page doorstopper report, commissioned by the EU, on the ‘future of European competitiveness’. Without radical economic reform, he warns, EU member states will suffer from stagnant living standards, technological backwardness and geopolitical impotence. At the turn of the century, the EU and US were on a relatively equal footing. But, on a per-capita basis, real disposable income in the EU has grown at only half the rate of the US since 2000. The US now massively outperforms the EU in advanced technology. Only four in the world’s top-50 tech firms are European. Almost a million manufacturing jobs were lost in the EU in the last four years alone. The growing gap between the EU and US is the calamity. Draghi’s bleak assessment actually underestimates the scale of the EU’s economic malaise across the 27-member bloc. The economies of Italy, Spain and Greece are actually smaller than they were in the late 2000s. Germany is rapidly deindustrialising. In France the debt is spiralling. The cost of all this foregone growth is a diminished quality of life, stretched public services and decaying infrastructure. According to Draghi, nothing less than a fundamental rethink in how Brussels approaches investment, trade policy and business regulation will dig Europe out of its hole. His demand is for an EU-funded investment plan worth €800 billion per year – more than double the size of the postwar Marshall plan. Slow agony is what Europe will get. The core proposal of an EU-wide investment fund was, within a matter of hours, effectively vetoed by German finance minister Lindner. The Netherlands, have also rejected the plan. France’s new technocratic government is planning a harsh round of austerity to meet demands laid down by Brussels. The great irony here is that if a national government were to propose such a large investment plan, it would be instantly smacked down by the EU for breaking rules on fiscal deficits and state aid. Member states are blocked from making large public investments by Brussels, while Brussels is blocked from pursuing an EU-wide strategy by the member states. Draghi notes that 60 per cent of companies in the EU see labyrinthine regulation from Brussels as a barrier to investment and innovation. While the US federal government passed 3,500 pieces of legislation and 2,000 resolutions between 2019 and 2024, the EU added 13,000 regulations in the same period. Brussels’ great ambition is to become a ‘regulatory superpower’ – that is, to be the setter of rules for vast swathes of the world. EU apparatchiks may boast of their ‘world-leading’ regulations on tech, but where are the large homegrown, innovative tech firms Europe needs if it wants to drive economic growth? Regulating for regulation’s sake is what Brussels does. Draghi’s report notes alongside low investment, another leading cause of Europe’s industrial stagnation: high energy prices. On average, EU firms pay 158 per cent more for electricity and 345 per cent more for natural gas than their US counterparts. But Draghi chooses to ignore the key reason for this. The US has embraced fossil fuels. The EU generates energy expensively – and has to import much of it from outside the continent – because has shunned domestic fossil-fuel production and embraced unreliable renewable energy to meet Net Zero targets. Yet Draghi’s proposed ‘solution’ is to combine the push for ‘competitiveness’ with ‘decarbonisation’. Of the €800 billion being demanded in his proposed investment plan, €450 billion would be spent on Net Zero projects. This would mean doubling down on a failed strategy, potentially accelerating Europe’s decline. Fundamentally, Europe’s economic problems are not going to be solved by the EU, even with proposals as far-reaching as Draghi’s. The EU itself is the problem here. Member states are constrained from pursuing economic policies according to their national interests, hampered from investing in their domestic priorities, and forced to adopt uniform rules as dictated by functionaries in Brussels. And when the EU fails to deliver the growth and prosperity it has promised, voters are largely powerless to hold its leaders accountable or to force a change in direction. (Source: spiked *)
* a British Internet magazine
by Myers, Deputy Editor

Albania
22.09.2024  Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama confirmed plans yesterday to establish a ’Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order’ in the nation’s capital of Tirana to "promote a tolerant version of Islam that Albania is proud of." The proposed state, expected to be a quarter the size of Vatican City, would lack traditional sovereign features such as an army, border guards or courts. Rama admitted that a few close aides were aware of the plan, with NATO allies, including the US, not yet informed. Albania's latest census data showed that Bektashis comprised 115,000 of the country's 2.4 million people. (Source: aa *)
* Anadolu Agency (Turkey)

Russia
(Sunday), 01:42 BST, 22 September 2024  Yesterday morning a secret ammunition silo facility at Toropets in Tver region was hit by Ukrainian kamikaze drone, it was claimed yesterday. A huge explosion was triggered. The 'Satan-2' missile was hit, destroyed. It allegedly happened just ten miles from an 'indestructible' 30,000 ton munitions storage site that had been obliterated on Wednesday. It was also claimed that another site, which is reported to house North Korean missiles supplied by Kim, was hit in the Russian town of Tikhoretsk in the Krasnodar region. Kondratyev, governor of Krasnodar region, wrote on his official Telegram channel that Tikhoretsk was 'subjected to a terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime.'Two drones were suppressed by air defence and electronic warfare forces. 'Due to the fall of debris from one of them, a fire broke out, which spread to explosive objects. Detonation began. 'Currently, for safety reasons, residents of the village located near the site of the fire are being temporarily evacuated to nearby settlements.' The detonation site is believed to be a base of military unit 57229-41. The Tikhoretsk missile and ammunition complex is at the end of a 6,000-mile transit route across Siberia from North Korea for mountains of munitions sent by Kim. The North Korean firepower was stashed here before being sent to the frontline. Among supplies from Pyongyang are deadly KN-23 missiles and 122mm and 152mm artillery shells. There were Russian fears of casualties at both exploded arms depots. The blowing up today of two more arsenals - 1,000 miles apart - will have acute ramifications. (Source: dailymail)

Asia

Israel
Sun, 22 Sep, 2024 - 08:10  On Friday, an Israeli air strike took down an eight-storey building in a densely populated area in Beirut’s southern suburbs as Hezbollah members were meeting in the basement, according to Israel. Among those killed was Akil, a top Hezbollah official who commanded the group’s special forces unit, known as the Radwan Force. Akil had been on the US most wanted list for years, with a seven million dollar reward, over his alleged role in the 1983 bombing of the US embassy in Beirut and the taking of American and German hostages in Lebanon during the civil war in the 1980s. Rockets fired from Lebanon early today were intercepted further south than most of the rocket fire to date. Lebanon’s Hezbollah has launched more than 100 rockets across a wider and deeper area of northern Israel, with some landing near the city of Haifa, sending thousands of people scrambling into shelters. In Kiryat Bialik, near Haifa buildings were damaged and cars set on fire. Israel cancelled school across the north, deepening the sense of crisis. The barrage came after an Israeli air strike in Beirut on Friday killed at least 37 people, including one of Hezbollah’s top leaders as well as women and children. The Israeli military said it carried out a wave of strikes across southern Lebanon over the past 24 hours, hitting some 400 militant sites, including rocket launchers. In a separate development, Israeli forces raided the West Bank bureau of Al-Jazeera, which it had banned earlier this year, accusing it of serving as a mouthpiece for militant groups, allegations denied by the pan-Arab broadcaster. (Source: irishexaminer)

Lebanon
(Sunday, 22 9 2024 10:16 AM)  The death toll from an Israeli air strike that targeted Hezbollah military commanders in Beirut's southern suburbs this week has risen to 45, Lebanon's health ministry said today. (Source: gulftoday *)
* Gulf Today, an English-language daily newspaper. Headquarters Sharjah, the United Arab Emirates.

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Germany
(Saturday, 21 September 2024)  Migrants feel less welcome as Germany's far-right rises. Anti-migrant ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany, or AfD, could win the most votes in the eastern German state of Brandenburg's election for a new regional parliament tomorrow. In Brandenburg polls show the AfD leading with 28%. To undermine support for the AfD, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left wing-led government on Monday introduced checks for migrants on all of Germany’s borders. He also wants to increase deportations of people whose application for asylum is unsuccessful. Opposition conservatives want the borders closed to asylum seekers altogether. Almost a decade ago the then-chancellor Angela Merkel refused to shut the borders to hundreds of thousands of people fleeing war and persecution in Syria and Afghanistan. In 2015 and 2016 around 1.5 million refugees and migrants were welcomed to Germany, mostly from the Middle East. Many Germans were suddenly proud of the country’s new-found identity as a safe haven for refugees. A new German word was invented, “Willkommenskultur” A record 200,000 people became German citizens in 2023. The New Germans largest group came from Syria. They are on average younger than the native-born population - 26 years old compared to the German average of 47 - and ’statistically’ more likely to be in work: 84% of the Syrian men who arrived in 2015 are in employment, compared to 81% of German-born men. Overall ’3.48 million refugees’ are now living in the country A third are from Ukraine. But, the 2015 ’welcome culture’ is hard to find today. New arrivals down this year by 22% compared to the same period in 2023. There is a nervousness in Germany that money and resources are tight. New Germans are thinking about leaving altogether. The paradox is that the government is desperate to attract workers to Germany. But the increasingly hostile rhetoric over migration may not only put people off coming, but also push away those go-getting New Germans. A study published last week by DeZIM, an institute that researches migration, found that almost a quarter of people with a migration background, many of them German citizens, are considering emigrating because of the rise of the far-right. Almost 10 percent say they have concrete plans to leave Germany. (Source: bbc)

Sep 21, 2024  The Leopard 2A6 tank sent to Ukraine stands as one of the most sophisticated main battle tanks globally. Armed with a 120mm Rheinmetall L55 smoothbore gun, it delivers exceptional firepower and accuracy. This formidable tank can launch a variety of ammunition, including armor-piercing, high-explosive, and even guided projectiles. Its state-of-the-art fire control system allows for accurate targeting even while on the move, and its thermal optic capabilities ensure precision in any visibility conditions. Underneath its armored exterior, the Leopard 2A6 boasts a powerful MTU MB 873 diesel engine with around 1,500 horsepower. This power grants it impressive maneuverability and speed. On roads, it can reach up to 72 km/h, and even off-road, it can move at speeds of up to 50 km/h. Weighing approximately 62.5 tons, it provides both stability and protection, thanks to its advanced design and multi-layered armor, composed of composite materials and equipped with active protection systems. When it comes to defense, the Leopard 2A6 is top-tier. Its combined armor is specifically engineered to deflect and absorb hits from anti-tank shells. Adding to its prowess, the tank is fitted with modern communication and control technologies, enabling seamless integration into contemporary combat networks. This capability is crucial for the effective coordination of combat units on today’s dynamic battlefield. The Leopard 2A6 made its combat debut during the mass offensives against Russian positions in early June 2023. It was among the first Western-supplied vehicles to be disabled and destroyed by Russian forces. Several Leopard 2 tanks have been captured by Russian force and studied extensively. A Leopard 2A4 was confirmed captured in December 2022, followed by a Leopard 2A6 in April 2023. In early September, footage surfaced showing the capture of another Leopard 2A6 and an M1 Abrams near the strategically crucial town of Avdiivka in the disputed Donbas region. The Russian military has been developing intricate strategies to combat Leopard 2A6 armored tanks, creatively leveraging reconnaissance and anti-tank drones. These drones deliver real-time updates on the location and movement of enemy tanks, effectively acting as sentinels on the battlefield. They relay critical data to commanders, who can then pinpoint weak spots in the Leopard 2A6 formations and orchestrate precise attacks. Some drones are even outfitted with small bombs or missiles, giving them the ability to strike armored units directly. The Russian forces also employ the Kornet anti-tank guided missile system, specifically engineered to cut through heavy armor. The Kornet boasts a range of up to 5.5 km and employs laser targeting to ensure remarkable accuracy. Once a drone locks onto a target, it communicates with the Kornet’s fire control system, which can swiftly dispatch missiles with pinpoint precision. This blended use of reconnaissance and direct attack enhances the success rate of their strikes, making the Leopard 2A6 notably vulnerable on the battlefield. Ukraine’s most capable Soviet-era tank, the T-80, which features a powerful gas turbine engine similar to the Abrams, has also been frequently seen facing significant losses. While Ukraine has received a significant number of Western-built tanks, most of these are older models such as the Leopard 1 and Leopard 2A4. The more advanced Leopard 2A6 is often reserved for elite units like the 47th Mechanized Brigade. While videos increasingly showcase the obliteration of Ukraine’s other advanced Western-supplied tank, the M1A1 Abrams, the Leopard 2A6 has appeared less frequently on the battlefield. Deployed to the front lines much earlier, these tanks have rarely been spotted in combat scenarios. According to German sources, as of early January, only a small number of Ukraine’s Leopard 2A6 tanks remain operational, with the fleet suffering significant combat losses. The Leopard 2A6 tank fleet in Ukraine is on the big verge of defeat. Neither Berlin nor Washington has indicated plans to send more Leopard 2A6 or M1 Abrams tanks. Within the past 24 hours, news broke that Australia and the United States are in discussions to supply M1 Abrams tanks, retired from Australian service to Ukraine. According to unofficial sources, the number of tanks proposed is substantial. (Source: bulgarianmilitary)
by Nikolov

Nagorno-Karabakh
Saturday 21 September 2024 08:47, UK   Nagorno-Karabakh was claimed by both Azerbaijan and Armenia after the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917, and in Soviet times it was designated its official location an autonomous region within Azerbaijan. As the Soviet Union crumbled, the Armenians in the region - which Armenians call Artsakh- started a movement to unite with Armenia. This was followed by the first war, with Armenian forces taking control of the region and capturing seven surrounding regions as a "buffer zone" in the early 1990s. With no resolution to the conflict and no agreement over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, there were frequent but mostly low-level exchanges of fire across the region's border with Azerbaijan following the first war. From 1988 to 1994 about 30,000 people were killed. Armenians in Azerbaijan were victims of pogroms, while Azeris claimed discrimination and violence in Armenia. Around 500,000 Azeris from Nagorno-Karabakh and the areas around it were displaced, 350,000 Armenians left Azerbaijan and 186,000 Azerbaijanis left Armenia. In April 2016, at least 200 were killed in a four-day skirmish. An estimated 6,000 people died during the 44-day war in 2020, with Azerbaijan the victors. It saw Baku regain seven surrounding territories occupied by Armenians since the first war in 1994 as well as a third of the region itself. The latest attack by the much larger Azerbaijani army began on 19 September and lasted 24 hours, forcing the region's leadership to surrender and agree to dissolve its self-styled republic by January 2024. The Armenians had already endured acute shortages of food, fuel and medicine in a nine-month Azerbaijani blockade cutting off the region's road connection with Armenia, the Lachin corridor. That road had been reopened by Azerbaijan shortly before the bombs started falling, and would within days allow Armenians to leave the territory. During a desperate search for fuel, some Armenians were queuing at a storage facility near capital city Stepanakert on 25 September when a huge explosion killed more than 200 people. With no real sign of Russian peacekeepers - stationed in the region as part of the second war's ceasefire agreement - intervening, panic began to spread among the Armenians. Azerbaijan's attack on the enclave - which had been ethnically Armenian but is recognised internationally as Azeri land - one year ago forced 100,000 Armenians on an arduous escape to leave their home - possibly for good. The job market in Armenia is mainly concentrated in and around the capital, where housing is most expensive, and the border regions offer few opportunities. Other refugees have chosen to settle elsewhere, with some relocating to Russia, which was once seen by some Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh as their guarantor. With Armenian state support ending in January next year and local media reporting little more than 4,000 refugees have applied for citizenship, some believe more will choose to leave Armenia entirely. Nearly 11,500 refugees are said to have emigrated already, as of July. The refugees’ fate has echoes of the trauma suffered by Azerbaijanis for nearly three decades. While Nagorno-Karabakh has a significant Armenian history, for centuries it was also home to tens of thousands of Azeris, who became internally displaced people (IDPs) following the first war. While Azeris have the chance to finally return, it appears unlikely they will be joined in the foreseeable future by Armenians, many of whom fear living under an Azerbaijani government. Azerbaijan's autocratic president Aliyev, who replaced his late father in 2003, has frequently used anti-Armenian rhetoric. In a speech in December 2022, he said Armenia - referred to as ’Western Azerbaijan’ - "’was never present in this region before’ and "present-day Armenia is our land’. "It's impossible for the civilian population to live under Azerbaijani governance without some kind of international guarantee,” according to Tigran, the head of Regional Center for Democracy and Security, a Yerevan-based thinktank. 'Armenia's government hasn't been successful in raising awareness and funds internationally," Tigran said. Kim, a senior official at the US State Department, told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee "we will not tolerate any attack on the people of Nagorno-Karabakh" just days before Azerbaijan's offensive. Statements like that ’have not corresponded to the reality’, Tigran said, and it has been "business as usual' with Azerbaijan. For years, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has been referred to as a frozen - or forgotten – conflict. Since the second war, there remains a sense among Armenians they have been abandoned. People lived there, but the world stayed silent, as if nothing was happening to them. "The predominant feeling among refugees is they feel abandoned from all governments.’ (Source: news.sky)
by Minassian

Russia
September 21, 2024  “Russian authorities have reportedly tasked Russian forces with pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast by mid-October 2024 and establishing a "buffer zone" into Ukrainian border areas along the international border with Russia in northeastern Ukraine by the end of October - significant undertakings that the Russian military is very unlikely to achieve in such a short period of time,' the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the war. According to Ukrainian sources, the Russian military has gathered almost 40,000 men in the Kursk Oblast for the upcoming push to expel the Ukrainian forces in the area. The Kremlin seems to have a set a deadline to achieve this goal by the middle of October. “Putin has since remained committed to his crypto mobilization campaign, constraining Russia's mobilization potential,” the Institute for the Study of War added. (Source: nationalinterest)

September 21, 2024  As casualties mount in Kursk and Russia gains ground in Donetsk, the political cost of retreating will become higher, and Ukraine risks falling victim to the sunk cost fallacy. Once it became clear that the offensive failed to achieve its primary objective of diverting Russian forces away from the Donbas, Ukraine should have withdrawn from the border region to stabilize the frontline. Instead, Kyiv appears determined to stay in Kursk in hopes that it could be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, whereas Russia has prioritized its offensive in the Donbas. Ukraine has deployed over 15,000 troops, including elite units, to the Kursk region, thereby exacerbating its manpower shortage and allowing Russia to accelerate its advance in the east. As a result, Russian troops are now less than ten kilometers away from Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub, and their offensive is intensifying in the northwest of Donetsk, towards Chasiv Yar, and in the southwest, in Vuhledar. It seems as though Kyiv is placing too much political importance on Kursk; President Zelensky has argued in favor of bringing the war to Russia. Despite embarrassing the Kremlin, again, the incursion does not represent a threat to the regime, nor does it severely undermine its war effort, which is why it did not trigger a dramatic escalation. Ukraine has seized over 1000 square kilometers of Russian land, the territory itself is of limited strategic value and only consists of Suzha, a town of 5000 people, and small neighboring villages. If the objective is to force the Kremlin to negotiate a land swap, then Ukraine has to prove that it can hold the territory indefinitely. If after several weeks or months, Russia is still unable to fully dislodge Ukrainian troops, it may decide to use more destructive means, including the use of glide bombs, on Ukrainian-occupied territory. At some point, Ukraine will have to withdraw from the region; otherwise, it will incur a staggering loss of troops and resources. What started as a tactical success quickly became a strategic blunder. (Source: thenationalinterest *)
* The National Interest, an American bimonthly international relations magazine