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Egyik 19

Magyarországról, utódállami területekről, Európáról, Európai Unióról, további földrészekről, globalizációról, űrről

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2024. XII. 5. France, Russia, China, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey

2024.12.05. 23:41 Eleve

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Europe

France
December 5, 2024 4:15 PM CET 
Barnier’s government collapsed after losing a no-confidence vote in the parliament yesterday night. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier will stay on in a caretaker capacity after formally handing in his resignation today, President Macron’s office said in a statement. There are no obvious successors to Barnier, though several names have been floated in French media, including Lecornu, the minister of armed forces; centrist Macron ally Bayrou; and former prime ministers Jean Castex and Bernard Cazeneuve. Caretaker governments in France typically remain in place for only a few days. According to an official note from the prime minister’s internal organization distributed to ministries during the last caretaker government period in July, cabinet members are restricted during the transition period to handling issues that “require no political judgment and do not raise any difficult legal questions,” or to managing emergencies. (Source: Politico)

05.12.2024  Russian Foreign Minister today accused the current US administration of trying to destabilize Eurasia. Lavrov argued at the 31st Ministerial Council meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Malta's capital of Valletta, that moves by Washington stemmed from the Biden administration’s movement of NATO infrastructure into the Asia-Pacific region. He said military blocs are being created in the region and NATO has stepped up its participation in military exercises in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula. "We cannot allow a repeat of the tragedy of many countries in various regions from Afghanistan to Haiti, when Uncle Sam came, made a mess and then watched what happened, forcing others to clean up after themselves, he said.” He claimed that the US and its allies have disregarded agreements on arms control to return NATO to the political forefront, and that the Cold War has been reincarnated, but risks transitioning into a ’hot’ conflict. Lavrov arrived in Valletta overnight, marking his first visit to a EU country since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. (Source: Anadolu Agency)

Eurasia

Russia
5.12.2024  Aleppo
has long been considered a symbol of Russia's strength. After the government troops spent four years fighting rebels for control of the city, it was the Russian military that helped Syrian President Assad lock down control at the end of 2016. As part of the current offensive by the ’pro-Turkish’ Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Aleppo has fallen to the rebels in less than four days. Russia is once more carrying out airstrikes in a bid to support Syria's governmental forces under President Assad. In 2015, when Russian President Putin decided to militarily strengthen Assad, he mainly deployed his air force in Syria. Russia uses Syria's Hmeimim air base as platform to be operational in the entire region. The Russian troop contingent in Syria has always been relatively small. According to estimates, only between 2,000 and 4,000 soldiers were additionally deployed. This number is likely to have remained the same. Almost the same number of mercenaries, such as those of the Wagner Group, were added at the time. The latter were involved in ground battles in Syria more often than regular soldiers.The Russian strategy was about Syrian, Iranian, and Shia militias doing the fighting and Russian forces providing support, not the other way around, US analysts Kofman and Rojansky wrote in a study for the US Army University Press in 2018. Following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia had denied plans to withdraw troops from Syria. However, it reportedly moved a number of fighter jets back to their home ports. And the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system was shipped to a Russian port near Crimea. Soldiers in Syria were regrouped and moved from smaller posts to larger bases. Currently Kremlin mercenaries in Syria are not specialized in combat missions, but in monitoring oil production facilities, for example, according to Suleimanov, a Russian researcher at the ADA University in Azerbaijan's capital Baku. The main difference to the previous battle of Aleppo is that Russia has been much more preoccupied with its war in Ukraine since February 2022. Iran and its allied militias such as Hezbollah have been weakened by the conflict with Israel. The Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels have seized the opportunity to advance. While the war in Ukraine remains a top priority for Russia, Putin will certainly not abandon Assad, Suleimanov said. The naval base in Tartus - a key hub for Russian missile cruisers - secures access to the Mediterranean, and the Hmeimim air base makes it possible to be operational in the entire region and for the Kremlin is maintaining its image as a superpower. After the failed Western interventions in Iraq and Libya, Russia was able to successfully establish itself as a player in the Middle East. Russia's initial reactions to the rebel offensive indicate that it would prefer not to deploy additional military resources to Syria. However, air strikes are still being stepped up. General Chaiko, who has previously led Russian troops in Syria, arrived in the country. Moscow is also seeking contact with other powers involved, above all Turkey. Putin has spoken to Turkish President Erdogan on the phone, and representatives of Russia, Iran and Turkey are due to meet next weekend. (Source: DW – Germany)
by Szymanowski ’in Riga’

Asia

China
December 5, 2024 9:34 AM GMT+1 
China has decided to impose sanctions on 13 U.S. military firms from today, in response to the sale of U.S. arms to Taiwan. The step follows China's strong objection to the United States authorising a potential $385-million sale of spare parts and support for F-16 jets and radars to Taiwan. Companies targeted by the sanctions include Teledyne Brown Engineering Inc, BRINC Drones Inc and Shield AI Inc, the foreign ministry said in today's statement. Other companies facing sanctions are Rapid Flight LLC, Red Six Solutions, SYNEXXUS Inc, Firestorm Labs Inc, Kratos Unmanned Aerial Systems Inc, HavocAI, Neros Technologies, Cyberlux Corporation, Domo Tactical Communications and Group W. In addition, China will freeze the assets of six executives from five companies including Raytheon, BAE Systems and United Technologies, in China, and bar their entry to the country. Chinese organisations and individuals are also prohibited from dealing with them. (Source: Reuters)

Lebanon
5 Dec 2024  Israel hit southern Lebanon 191 times with white phosphorus. / Photo, video, map/ (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

Syria
Dec 5, 2024 'The United States
offered Syrian President Assad deals to sever ties with Iran before opposition factions seized Aleppo, The New York Times said yesterday. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, once known as al-Nusra Front) and Turkish-backed armed opposition factions, aka the Syrian National Army (SNA), recently launched their largest offensive in years, gaining full control of Aleppo, Idlib and parts of Hama. The New York Times added that these developments make it increasingly unlikely that Syria will abandon its long-standing alliance with Iran. The report highlights escalating Israeli airstrikes in Syria and efforts by the U.S. and Gulf states to court Assad into distancing himself from Iran and Hezbollah. Despite these pressures, the attack on Aleppo appears to have solidified the Syria-Iran-Russia alliance, with both Moscow and Tehran renewing their commitments to support Assad. Meanwhile, Reuters reported discussions between the U.S. and UAE about potentially lifting sanctions on Assad if he agreed to distance himself from Iran. (North Press Agency - ’a Syrian news agency’)

(Thursday), Dec 5, 2024, 11:30 AM  "Syrian sources say around 2,000 foreign-backed 'Takfiri' terrorists have been killed in northern Syria over the past week in joint strikes carried out by the Syrian military and its Russian allies". The sources announced the fatalities on Wednesday amid a concerted counterterrorism push involving the Syrian military, including the air force, and Russian military aircraft. The latest deaths were caused after the strikes hit terrorist gathering points and hideouts around the north, killing as many as 120 terrorists, the Russian Coordination Center in Syria reported. Syrian security sources have confirmed that “Hama is completely safe, with armed forces stationed around the city.” ’The Takfiris and media outlets across the Western and regional countries supporting them, including the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a so-called monitor, have launched an intense propaganda campaign, alleging that the terrorists had entered Hama. Amid the campaign, the HTS reportedly imposed an internet blackout on the city to ’mask the lies about the entry of terrorists’ into the city, Syrian sources noted. Dozens of Takfiris were killed during heavy operations targeting their gatherings in the countryside of the city of Hama, where clashes are reportedly underway northwest of the city. The retaliation also destroyed many of the terrorists’ vehicles. Earlier, it was reported that the Syrian army had launched a series of successful operations in northern Hama, expanding the security perimeter around the city by 20 kilometers. The operations led to the deaths of 300 terrorists belonging to the so-called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Takfiri outfit, including several foreign fighters. The army also destroyed 25 drones belonging to terrorists in northern Hama, besides cutting off their key supply rounds. Additionally, heavy missile strikes targeted the sites used by the HTS in the city of Idlib. In southern Idlib, the Syrian army intensified its bombardments, leading to significant casualties among the Takfiris’ ranks. Hospitals in Idlib are, meanwhile, reportedly overwhelmed with wounded terrorists, with the HTS trying to strictly limit hospital admissions to terrorist casualties. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran)

Turkey
Dec 05, 2024, 05:05 PM  Turkey has closely cooperated and coordinated with regional counterparts since clashes began again in northern Syria last week, a spokesman for the defence ministry said today. The conflict was triggered by domestic dynamics and unresolved issues in Syria, the spokesman repeated the Turkish position in Ankara. Syrian rebels are starting a push into Hama city. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

.4 12 5 22:09

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2024. XII. 4. Germany, Lithuania, Romania, European Commission, European Parliament, European Union, Russia, United Kingdom, Vatican, South Korea, Syria, Turkey, United States, NATO

2024.12.05. 22:44 Eleve

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Europe

Germany
04.12.2024  German chancellor
rules out deploying troops to Ukraine. Olaf Scholz underlines that his government will refrain from actions that could trigger conflict between NATO, Russia. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Lithuania
December 4, 2024  German-based defense firm Rheinmetall
has begun construction of an artillery ammunition plant in the Lithuanian city of Baisogala, in the center of the Baltic nation. The plant will produce 155mm rounds – the NATO standard ordnance for weapons including the M777 towed howitzer, and numerous self-propelled artillery platforms. The facility is on track to begin manufacturing the ordnance by the middle of 2026, and once fully operational it will be able to produce tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells annually, the German company announced. 180 million euros ($190 million) is being invested to build the plant, which will also create around 150 jobs. The 155mm shells are about two feet long, and each weighs around 100 pounds. The ordnance has been one of the most widely produced artillery shells of the 21st century – but also the most widely used as NATO has supplied Ukraine with vast quantities. The United States has set a goal to produce 100,000 monthly. The Rheinmetall plant in Lithuania will allow NATO to further build up its stockpiles. (Source: The National Interest – U.S.)

Romania
(Wednesday), 4.12.2024 
Georgescu won the first round of the election. On social media and on TikTok in particular, he had a high profile. About nine million of the country's 19 million inhabitants, especially young people, use the service. His channel has 520,000 followers and 5.7 million likes. He not only criticizes Romania's political establishment but is also seen doing judo or riding horses, just like the man he so admires. Now, the extreme right-wing conspiracy theorist, NATO critic and Putin admirer has a chance of being elected president of Romania on Sunday. Extreme views are becoming normalized. Romania's electoral authority accused TikTok of giving Georgescu an advantage and Romania's media watchdog called on the EU to investigate the video-sharing platform. TikTok rejected all allegations and claimed that it had found no indication of covert interference from either inside Romania or abroad. Will TikTok decide the presidential election in Romania? (Source: DW - Germany)

European Commission
04/12/2024 - 15:23 GMT+1  'The latest chapters of Brussels' hypocrisy'.
With the start of Der Leyen's second mandate coincide revelations about money-laundering scheme Reynders, 66, as Commissioner for Justice has allegedly operated for years, including during his five-year mandate. The presumed scheme involved purchases of lottery tickets and cash of unknown origin, according to revelations made by Follow The Money and Le Soir yesterday evening. Belgian police have already questioned Reydners and raided several of his properties. It's unclear how much money could have been potentially laundered. The criminal probe is said to cover Reynders's mandate as Commissioner and his previous position in domestic politics. Asked if the probe could diminish the credibility of the Commission in matters related to the rule of law and fundamental rights, a spokesperson refused to comment. Against Hungary and Poland Reynders and his team launched legal proceedings and froze EU funds. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

European Parliament
December 04, 2024  Parliament halts anti-corruption talks under the Hungarian Government’s watch.
This Hungarian government cannot be in the driver's seat on the Anti-Corruption Directive, leading negotiations on this Directive designed to strengthen anti-corruption measures in the EU, the Parliament's lead rapporteur Der Walle said. 'The integrity and credibility of all EU institutions and this crucial piece of legislation must remain intact. Therefore, with the Polish Presidency less than a month away, it is in the best interest of our Union and our citizens to wait until then to start the talks with Council on the Directive', she added. (Source: Renew Europe Group)

European Union
December 4, 2024 
Trump and the European right: an attraction-repulsion relationship. We can’t rule out the possibility that some of Trump’s staunch supporters, or even political clones, might turn against him if their conflicts of interest become too acute. Indeed, the first signs of such a shift are already perceptible when, for example, Italy’s Prime Minister, Mrs. Meloni, or her friend, the Dutchman Mr. Wilders, denounce Trump’s protectionism and stand up with their other European partners against the tariffs he wants to impose on their countries’ products. But what seems to worry Europeans most are Trump’s atypical character traits, which make him totally unpredictable and uncontrollable. And this is all the more true given that he decides everything on his own, because he has cleared the air around him and there are no longer any safeguards or institutional safety valves to prevent him from doing anything crazy. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of those who see Trump as an anti-system activist are also Putin sympathizers. Just as it is not unsurprising and without historical precedent to see people on the left adopting such positions that drift towards the far right. In reality, today’s supporters and admirers of Trump and Putin are merely perpetuating a sad, or rather criminal, phenomenon from the interwar period, which saw even eminent representatives of the labor movement and the left, such as the Italian Bombacci or the French Doriot recognize in…Mussolini and Hitler 'champions of peace', 'anti-imperialist revolutionaries' and 'unifiers of Europe'! (Source: CounterPunch - U.S.)
by Mitralias

Russia
December 4, 2024  The Mikoyan MiG-31 (NATO reporting name Foxhound)
first entered service in 1982. A total of just 519 were produced – with most remaining in operation with the Russian Aerospace Forces. The Russian Defense Ministry has stated that the MiG-31 would remain in service until 2030 or beyond. The latest variant – the MiG-31I – has been upgraded and will be armed with the Kinzhal hypersonic missile and will be taking part in joint drills in the eastern Mediterranean. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)

United Kingdom
December 4, 2024  Quoted directly from the Hippocratic oath: "I will give no deadly medicine to any one if asked, nor suggest any such counsel." Despite the good doctor’s concerns, MPs backed the landmark bill to legalise assisted dying in England and Wales in the end. As lawyer Vlaardingerbroek said after 20 years of euthanasia and assisted suicide for over 20 years in her country of Holland: ‘Always keep in mind that the power one gives to emperor Augustus can – and will – end up in the hands of someone like Nero.’ (Source: CounterPunch - U.S.)

Vatican
04.12.2024  Pope Francis today discussed the situation in Ukraine and the efforts for peace with the Hungarian prime minister. The Pope received Viktor Orbán at the Secretariat of State and the meeting took place in a cordial atmosphere. During the dialogue, particular attention was paid to the war in Ukraine, focusing on the humanitarian consequences and the efforts to promote peace. Pope Francis and Orbán also examined the Hungarian presidency of the Council of the European Union, the central role of the family and the protection of the young generations. Orbán in post on X said: "The peace mission continues!" (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

South Korea
(Wednesday ), 5:15 PM CET, December 4, 2024 Lawmakers from South Korea’s main opposition party
today gathered outside the parliament in Seoul to call for President Yoon’s resignation and the immediate launch of an investigation into him for what they claim is his act of rebellion - the sudden and short-lived declaration of martial law. South Korea’s opposition parties today submitted a motion to impeach the President,The martial law drew heavily armed troops to encircle parliament before lawmakers climbed walls to reenter the building and unanimously voted to lift his order. Democratic Party lawmakers, who hold a majority in the 300-seat parliament, called on Yoon to quit immediately or they would take steps to impeach him. Yoon’s martial law declaration “was a clear violation of the constitution. It didn’t abide by any requirements to declare it,” a party statement said. The order “was originally invalid and a grave violation of the constitution. It was a grave act of rebellion and provides perfect grounds for his impeachment.” Impeaching Yoon would require the support of two-thirds of parliament, and at least six justices of the nine-member Constitutional Court would have to endorse it to remove him. The motion to impeach, submitted jointly by the main liberal opposition Democratic Party and five smaller opposition parties, could be put to a vote as early as Friday. Yoon’s senior policy advisers and Defense Minster Kim offered to resign as the nation struggled to make sense of what appeared to be a poorly conceived stunt. The Democratic Party submitted a separate motion to impeach Kim, who allegedly recommended the martial law declaration to Yoon. In his speech announcing the abrupt order - the shocking and short-lived declaration of martial law - yesterday night, Yoon vowed to eliminate “anti-state” forces and continued to criticize the Democratic Party’s attempts to impeach key government officials and senior prosecutors. That martial law lasted only about six hours, ending after the National Assembly voted to overrule Yoon and his Cabinet formally lifted it before daybreak today. Impeaching him would require support from 200 National Assembly members. The Democratic Party and other small opposition parties together have 192 seats. But they could seek additional votes from Yoon’s ruling conservative People Power Party. The 190-0 vote that rejected martial law included the votes of 18 lawmakers from the PPP, according to National Assembly officials. Party leader Han and Seoul Mayor Oh also a member, criticized Yoon’s martial law declaration. If Yoon is impeached, he will be stripped of his constitutional powers until the Constitutional Court rules. Prime Minister Han who holds the No. 2 position in the South Korean government, would take over presidential responsibilities. Han issued a public message pleading for patience and calling for Cabinet members to “fulfill your duties even after this moment.” The Constitutional Court has only six incumbent justices following three retirements. That means all six must approve the impeachment motion for it to succeed. The court includes justices appointed after Yoon took office, so the Democratic Party is expected to speed up the process of exercising its right to recommend two of the three new justices. Yoon’s martial law declaration harkened back to South Korea’s past military-backed governments when authorities occasionally proclaimed martial law and other decrees that allowed them to station soldiers, tanks and armored vehicles on streets or at public places such as schools to prevent anti-government demonstrations. Until yesterday night and today morning, such scenes of military intervention had not been seen since South Korea achieved a democracy in the late 1980s. After Yoon’s declaration, troops carrying full battle gear, including assault rifles, tried to keep protesters away from the National Assembly as military helicopters flew overhead and landed nearby. Opposition leader Lee and National Assembly Speaker Woo were seen climbing over walls. As troops and police officers blocked some from entering, they didn’t aggressively restrain or use force against others. No major violence was reported. The troops and police personnel were later seen leaving the grounds of the National Assembly after the parliamentary vote to lift the martial law. Under South Korea’s constitution, the president can declare martial law during “wartime, war-like situations or other comparable national emergency states” that require the use of military force to restrict the freedom of press, assembly and other rights to maintain order. Many observers question whether South Korea is currently in such a state. The constitution also states that the president must oblige when the National Assembly demands the lifting of martial law with a majority vote. A presidential official said Yoon decided to impose martial law to resolve a political deadlock and did it in the middle of night to minimize its effect on the economy. Some experts say Yoon clearly violated the constitution which does not permit the functions of parliament to be restricted. But in following Yoon’s declaration yesterday, the South Korean military proclaimed that parliamentary activities were suspended and deployed troops to try to block lawmakers from entering the National Assembly. Park, the Democratic Party’s floor leader, called for Yoon to be immediately investigated on charges of rebellion over the way he deployed troops to the parliament. While the president mostly enjoys immunity from prosecution while in office, the protection does not extend to allegations of rebellion or treason. (Source: AP – U.S.)
by KIM, who has been covering the Koreas for the AP since 2014 - stories on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, the dark side of South Korea’s economic rise and international adoptions of Korean children.

Syria
December 04, 2024  Neocons try again in Syria. A day after Israel agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon last week the long dormant war in Syria reignited as jihadist forces seized the city of Aleppo and advanced virtually unhindered in its quest to overthrow the Syrian government until finally meeting resistance from the Syrian Army backed up by Russia. This is the last chance for neocons in the United States to topple Syrian President Assad before Trump, who tried to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, resumes the presidency in 49 days. On the neocon list of ways to make the world safer for Israel, Iran originally occupied pride of place. As the invaders/occupiers got bogged down in Iraq, it seemed more sensible to 'do Syria' next. With the help of 'friendly services,' the neocons mounted a false-flag chemical attack outside Damascus in late August 2013, blaming it on President Assad, whom U.S. President Obama had earlier said, 'had to go.' Obama had called such a chemical attack a red line but, mirabile dictu, chose to honor the U.S. Constitution by asking Congress first. Worse still for the neocons, during the first days of September, Russian President Putin pulled Obama’s chestnuts out of the fire by persuading Syria to destroy its chemical weapons under U.N. supervision. Obama later admitted that virtually all of his advisers had wanted him to order Tomahawk cruise missiles into Syria. The neocons would face another humiliation three days later when The New York Times published an op-ed by Putin, who wrote of growing trust between Russia and the U.S. and between Obama and himself, while warning against the notion that some countries are 'exceptional.' That the various groups trying to overthrow Assad had ample incentive to get the U.S. more deeply involved in support of that effort was clear. It was also quite clear that the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had equally powerful incentive to get Washington more deeply engaged in yet another war in the area – then, and now. NYT reporter Rudoren, writing from Jerusalem had the lead article on Sept. 6, 2013, addressing Israeli motivation in an uncommonly candid way. Her article, 'Israel Backs Limited Strike Against Syria,' notes that the Israelis have argued, quietly, that the best outcome for Syria’s at the time two-and-a-half-year-old civil war, at least for the moment, was no outcome. Rudoren wrote: 'For Jerusalem, the status quo, horrific as it may be from a humanitarian perspective, seems preferable to either a victory by Mr. Assad’s government and his Iranian backers or a strengthening of rebel groups, increasingly dominated by Sunni jihadis. ‘This is a playoff situation in which you need both teams to lose, but at least you don’t want one to win, we’ll settle for a tie,’ said Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. ‘Let them both bleed, hemorrhage to death: that’s the strategic thinking here. As long as this lingers, there’s no real threat from Syria.’ ' Instead of Tomahawks, Obama approved (or winked at) covert action to topple Assad. That did not work out very well. An investment of $500 million to train and arm ’moderate rebels’ yielded only ’four or five still in the fight,’ as then-CENTCOM commander Gen. Austin explained to Congress on Sept. 17, 2015. In late September 2015 at the U.N., Putin told Obama that Russia is sending its forces into Syria; the two agreed to set U.S. Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov off to work out a ceasefire in Syria; they labored hard for 11 months. A ceasefire agreement was finally reached and approved personally by Obama and Putin.   Does 2015 Chronology Foreshadow 2025?   The following list of events beginning in the fall of 2015 is instructive in considering how the revived conflict might work out (probably minus U.S.-Russian talks), if the ongoing jihadi attack on Syrian forces continues for more than a few weeks.   Sept. 28, 2015: At the U.N., Putin tells Obama that Russia will start air strikes in Syria; invites Obama to join Russia in air campaign against isis. Obama refuses, but tells Kerry to get together with Lavrov to 'deconflict” U.S. and Russian flights over Syria, and then to work hard for a lessening of hostilities and political settlement in Syria – leading to marathon negotiations.   Sept. 30, 2015: Russia starts airstrikes both against isis and in support of Syrian forces against rebels in Syria.   Oct. 1, 2015 to Sept. 9, 2016: Kerry and Lavrov labor hard to introduce ceasefire and some kind of political settlement. Finally, a limited ceasefire is signed Sept 9, 2016 – with the explicit blessing of both Obama and Putin.   Sept. 12, 2016: The limited ceasefire goes into effect; provisions include separating the „moderate” rebels from the, well, ’immoderate ones’. Kerry had earlier claimed that he had "refined' ways to accomplish the separation, but it did not happen; provisions also included safe access for relief for Aleppo.   Sept. 17, 2016: U.S. Air Force bombs fixed Syrian Army positions killing between 64 and 84 Syrian army troops, with about 100 others wounded – evidence enough to convince the Russians that a renegade Pentagon was intent on scuttling the ceasefire and meaningful cooperation with Russia and felt free to do so and then merely say OOps, with no one being held accountable!   Sept. 26, 2016: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said: “My good friend Kerry … is under fierce criticism from the U.S. military machine. Despite the fact that, as always, [they] made assurances that the U.S. commander in chief, President Obama, supported him in his contacts with Russia (he confirmed that during his meeting with President Putin), apparently the military does not really listen to the commander in chief.' Lavrov went beyond mere rhetoric. He specifically criticized Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dunford for telling Congress that he opposed sharing intelligence with Russia, “after the agreements concluded on direct orders of Russian President Putin and U.S. President Obama stipulated that they would share intelligence… It is difficult to work with such partners…'   Sept. 29, 2016: Kerry’s hubris tinged frustration: Apparently Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Nuland, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Power, National Security Advisor Rice, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, et al. had told Kerry it would be easy to ’align things’ in the Middle East. And so, this is how Kerry started off his remarks at an open forum arranged by The Atlantic magazine and the Aspen Institute on Sept. 29, 2016. Kerry said: 'Syria is as complicated as anything I have ever done in my public life in the sense that there are probably about six wars going on at the same time: Kurds against Kurds, Kurds against Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Sunni, Shia, everybody against isis, people against Assad, Al-Nusra… this is a mixed up sectarian and civil war and strategic and proxies, so it is very difficult to be able to align forces.'   Ultimately, Syrian, Russian and Hezbollah forces beat back the jihadists and liberated Aleppo and other parts of the country in spite of U.S. opposition and are being called upon again now to do the same. (Source: Antiwar - U.S.)
by McGovern, who works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. His 27 years as a C.I.A. analyst included leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch and conducting the morning briefings of the President’s Daily Brief. In retirement he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

Dec 4, 2024, 10:26 AM  Terrorist groups, including the Nusra Front, with the support of some countries and the arrival of fresh foreign forces, launched a massive attack on Syrian army positions last week, sparking fierce clashes in Idlib, the outskirts of Aleppo, and parts of Hama and Latakia. The Arab League Council will convene for an emergency meeting on Syria on December 8. The ministerial-level meeting will take place at Damascus's request. Syria’s Arab League membership was revoked after President Assad ordered a crackdown on foreign-backed terrorists back in 2011 that spiraled the country into a civil war that has since killed nearly half a million people and displaced another ’23 million’. Ties with Damascus normalized in May last year, as the bloc hoped for an Arab-led political path to solve the Syrian crisis and foreign ministers from Arab League member states agreed to reinstate Syria into the bloc. (Source: MEHR News – Iran)

December 4, 2024  Thousands of Kurds displaced from Aleppo arrive in Kurdish-controlled areas near Raqqa. Syrian Kurds fled Tel Rifaat in northern Aleppo Governorate in large numbers yesterday after Turkish-backed rebels seized it from rival U.S.-backed Kurdish authorities. /Video/ (AP - U.S.)
646 views

Turkey
(Wednesday), December 4, 2024  Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups have seized a large swathe of the northern city of Aleppo in recent days, and are now advancing towards the central city of Hama. Iraq, which has assured Damascus of its support, sent armored vehicles Monday to bolster security on its 600-kilometre long border with Syria. The resumption of hostilities in Syria’s civil war has intensified diplomatic maneuvers in the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi held talks in Ankara on Monday with his Turkish counterpart Fidan, a day after visiting Damascus, where he met President Assad. Turkish President Erdoğan spoke by phone yesterday with Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani about renewed conflict in their joint neighbor Syria, with Erdoğan stressing Turkey’s priority, the need to prevent unrest on Turkey’s border. He declared maintaining peace on its borders Turkey’s priority as well as the unity, stability and territorial integrity of Syria, where last week the Islamist-led rebel coalition went on the offensive, breaking a years-long stalemate in Syria’s civil war. Erdoğan’s office said he had urged the Syrian regime to engage in a real political process to avoid the situation deteriorating. Turkey’s head of state also warned he had taken and would take measures to prevent the terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its extensions from taking advantage of developments in northern Syria, home to numerous Kurdish militants. (Source: Turkish Minute – Turkey)

North America

United States
12/4/2024  Trump advisers renew push for pardon of Snowden (Source: MSN / The Washington Post - U.S.)

Dec 04, 2024 11:58 AM IST  President-elect Trump is rumoured to be reconsidering his choice of former Fox News personality Hegseth as Defense Secretary, with reports suggesting he may turn to Florida Governor DeSantis instead. (Source: Hindustan Times - India)

04/12/2024 - 05:12  US president-elect Trump’s lawyers sought to dismiss his hush money criminal conviction in a filing released yesterday. The motion argued that President Biden used similar politically motivated reasoning days earlier to pardon his son. Because it is a state case, Trump would not be able to pardon himself once he returns to office. (Source: France 24 / AP - U.S.)

NATO

04.12.2024  NATO member states will do their best to provide Ukraine with more air defense, Alliance chief Rutte said speaking to the press on day two of a meeting of NATO member state foreign ministers in Brussels. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

.4 12 4 18:49

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2024. XII. 3. Finland, France, Poland, European Union, Georgia, Iran, Lebanon, Mediterranean Sea, Syria, United States

2024.12.05. 22:33 Eleve

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Europe

Finland
03.12.2024 
Finland's internet connectivity suffered a major disruption after a fiber optic cable connecting it to Sweden was damaged, causing widespread outages. The damage took place on land in two separate locations yesterday, with repair work still ongoing as of today morning. The damaged fiber optic cable, located in rural areas between Espoo and Vihti, was part of the critical infrastructure connecting the Nordic countries. The incident comes after a string of similar incidents in recent weeks, including the November cutting of two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. Finland's National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) is currently investigating a separate case involving the C-Lion1 submarine cable that connects Finland and Germany. A day before the Finland-Germany cable was cut, another cable linking Sweden and Lithuania was also damaged. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

France
03.12.2024  The French government faces the risk of collapse tomorrow if a no-confidence motion is passed, following the prime minister's decision to bypass a parliamentary vote to adopt the social security budget bill yesterday. Prime Minister Michel Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass the controversial bill, and the session at the National Assembly - the lower house of parliament - was suspended without any debate. Lawmakers from both left- and right-wing parties condemned the action, with both sides filing no-confidence motions that could trigger the government's downfall. The right-wing National Rally (RN) party has announced it will support the left-wing New Popular Front’s (NFP) motion, a move that could push the government to the brink, as Barnier lacks a majority in the house. To pass, the motion requires at least 289 votes. The country has experienced political instability since June, following Macron's centrist bloc's failure and the RN’s victory in the EU elections. In snap parliamentary elections in two rounds on June 30 and July 7, the NFP emerged with the most votes and seats in parliament, claiming it was entitled to have a prime minister from its ranks. President Macron rejected a left-wing candidate. On Sept. 5, Macron finally appointed Michel Barnier, a center-right politician, former European commissioner, and former foreign minister, as prime minister. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Poland
03.12.2024  The BBC
estimated in November 2023 that 650,000 military-age Ukrainian men had left for the EU since the war began. In July, Kyiv and Warsaw agreed to form and jointly train a new army brigade in Poland, aiming to boost recruitment among Ukrainian men living in Poland and other EU countries. Yesterday, Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz expressed concern about the low number of young Ukrainians in Poland who have signed up for military training, calling it ’worrying’ and a source of "resentment." “The sight of young Ukrainian men in the most modern cars or five-star hotels arouses emotions and justified opposition from Ukrainians who are fighting for their homeland, but also from Poles who spend billions on aid,” Kosiniak-Kamysz told in Krakow. Kosiniak-Kamysz acknowledged that Poles are feeling the effects of war fatigue. “I remember the first days after the outbreak of the war. Open hearts, homes. Today, there are more and more questions in this area. Conflict fatigue is much greater now,” he said. The minister pointed out that Poland remains one of the main countries involved in training Ukrainian soldiers on its soil, with about one-third of all trained soldiers - approximately 26,000 Ukrainians - having received their training in Poland. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

European Union
(3 December 2024)  According to Eurostat, there are over three million young people working as interns in the EU. Too often, companies take advantage of young people’s desperation to let them work unpaid. Luxembourg backs Hungarian plan for EU internship directive. (Source: Luxembourg Times)

December 3, 2024 EU  Statement at Cairo Ministerial Conference to enhance the humanitarian response to Gaza. Recalling the European Union’s unwavering commitment to a just, comprehensive, and lasting peace based on the two-state solution, the EU is deeply concerned by the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which impacts the lives of all the strip’s inhabitants in every sector, from food to shelter, education and healthcare. The EU calls for the granting of safe and unimpeded access for humanitarian goods and staff, the opening of all access routes to international aid and commercial imports to their maximum capacity, and urgent actions to restore law and order and stop the looting of aid. The EU has mobilised over EUR 300 million and all humanitarian instruments at its disposal to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinians. Over 60 humanitarian air bridge flights have been organised to provide critical assistance. EU also reiterates its support to the UN system, including the irreplaceable role of UNRWA. (Source: EU Neighbours South – European Union)

Georgia
03/12/2024 - 07:35  Police fired water canons and tear gas at demonstrators who gathered for a fifth consecutive night outside Georgia's parliament building in Tbilisi to protest a government decision to delay EU accession talks. Georgia’s Interior Ministry said yesterday that 224 protesters were detained on administrative charges and three arrested on criminal charges. So far, 113 police officers needed medical treatment while three others were hospitalized after clashes with protesters, who hurled fireworks at police. Georgia's President Zourabichvili who plays a largely ceremonial role, has rejected official election results and refused to recognize the parliament's legitimacy. She has declared that she would stay on the job even after her six-year term ends later this month to spearhead the demands for a new parliamentary election. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze of Georgian Dream has warned the opposition that “any violation of the law will be met with the full rigor of the law.” “Neither will those politicians who hide in their offices and sacrifice members of their violent groups to severe punishment escape responsibility,” he said. Kobakhidze argued that the government remains committed to the goal of European integration, claiming that “the only thing we have rejected is the shameful and offensive blackmail.” The EU granted Georgia candidate status in December 2023 on condition that it meet the bloc’s recommendations but put its accession on hold and cut financial support earlier this year after the passage of a “foreign influence” law. A law banning same-sex marriages, adoptions by same-sex couples and public endorsement and depictions of LGBTQ+ relations and people in the media came into force yesterday. (Source: France 24 – France / AP – U.S.)

Asia

Iran
Dec 3, 2024, 8:37 PM  Speaking in separate telephone conversations with Russian Defense Minister Belousov, Iraqi Army Chief of Staff Lt. General Yarallah, and Syria’s Chief of Staff General Ibrahim, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Bagheri discussed the latest developments in Syria and the resurgence of 'Takfiri terrorists' in some regions in Syria. During the talks with the Russian defense minister, General Bagheri emphasized that the invasion of Takfiri terrorist groups in Syria is the first step of a dangerous scenario for the region. General Bagheri says that simultaneousness of the terrorist offensive in Syria with the ceasefire in Lebanon is an American-Israeli conspiracy to weaken Syria, its allies, and the Axis of Resistance. The two sides agreed on firm support for the legitimate Syrian government and decided to take the necessary steps to support the Syrian army. Major General Bagheri and high-ranking officials from Russian, Iraqi, and Syrian armies called on Syria's neighboring countries to take the necessary measures to prevent any support for Takfiri terrorist groups. (Source: MEHR News Agency- Iran)

Lebanon
(Thuesday), 04:32-3 December 2024  Israel
unleashed its largest wave of airstrikes across Lebanon since agreeing to a ceasefire with Hezbollah last week, killing at least 11 people yesterday, after the Lebanese militant group fired a volley of projectiles as a warning over what it said were Israeli truce violations. The projectiles were apparently the first time that Hezbollah took aim at Israeli forces after the 60-day ceasefire went into effect last Wednesday. Hezbollah said in a statement that it fired on an Israeli military position in the area as a “defensive and warning response” after what it called “repeated violations” of the ceasefire deal by Israel. Before the Hezbollah projectiles, Israeli carried out at least four airstrikes and an artillery barrage in southern Lebanon, including a drone strike that killed a person on a motorcycle, according to Lebanese state media. Another strike killed a corporal in the Lebanese security services. Israel's military carried out a string of airstrikes late yesterday against what it said were Hezbollah fighters, infrastructure and rocket launchers across Lebanon, in response to Hezbollah firing two projectiles toward Mount Dov - a disputed Israeli-held territory known as Shebaa Farms in Lebanon where the borders of Lebanon, Syria, and Israel meet. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said the Israeli airstrike on the southern village of Haris killed five people and wounded two while another airstrike on the village of Tallousa killed four and also wounded two. Israel has said its strikes are in response to unspecified Hezbollah violations, and that under the ceasefire deal it reserves the right to retaliate. The truce prohibits Israel from conducting offensive military operations in Lebanon while requiring Lebanon to prevent armed groups, including Hezbollah, from launching attacks on Israel. Lebanon’s parliament speaker, Berri, accused Israel of violating the truce more than 50 times in recent days by launching airstrikes, demolishing homes near the border and violating Lebanon's airspace. Public broadcaster Kan reported that US envoy Hochstein, who brokered the truce, warned Israel over alleged violations. (Source: Asharq Al Awsat - headquartered in London, United Kingdom))

Mediterranean Sea
12:03 ET, Dec 3 2024  Today, Tsirkon [Zircon] 6,900 mph hypersonic missiles were fired in war games in the eastern Mediterranean. They were blasted by modern frigates Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko, aimed to show a global reach beyond Russia’s backyard. Both warships were operating as part of the Russian Navy strike group, Russian TV network Zvezda reported. Diesel-electric submarine Novorossiysk also launched a Kalibr cruise missile at a maritime target position. The Russian Defence Ministry said a Bastion coastal missile system from the Mediterranean coast - presumably Syria - carried out a ’combat launch’ of an Onyx cruise missile. The Russian Defence Ministry said: 'The exercise involves over 1,000 servicemen, ten ships and support vessels, 24 aircraft, including MiG-31I fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces with Kinzhal [Dagger] hypersonic missiles.' Its forces conducted 'missile, artillery and torpedo firing, as well as bombing.' Russia's Bastion coastal missile system was also involved in the exercises, according to Zvezda. They did not show or report launches of the 9.200mph Dagger ballistic missiles. “The exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean is being conducted in compliance with current international law, as well as agreements between the Russian Federation and foreign states on the prevention of incidents at sea outside territorial waters, as well as in the airspace above them." The drills were carried out under the supervision of Russian naval commander in chief Admiral Moiseyev. Several days ago, he was dispatched to Syria amid turmoil in the country as rebels took Aleppo. A key message of today’s war games may be to warn that Russia’s naval port in Syria - Tartus - will be vigorously defended. /Video, photo/ (Source: The U.S. Sun)

Syria
Dec 3, 2024  Rebel forces push westward, drawing dangerously close to one of Russia’s most critical military installations. Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base - situated near Latakia on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, the nerve center for Russia’s air campaign in Syria and a vital asset for projecting power across the eastern Mediterranean - is just 35 km from advancing Syrian rebels. With its state-of-the-art S-400 air defense systems, Su-34 bombers, and advanced reconnaissance drones, Khmeimim is a fortress that protects Russian and allied Syrian forces. The base’s operations go beyond supporting Assad’s regime; they allow Russia to test and showcase its military technology in live combat scenarios, enhancing the global market appeal of its arms industry. Additionally, Khmeimim supports geopolitical leverage, as Moscow’s presence secures a say in regional affairs and strengthens its alliances with other key actors, such as Iran. As of early yesterday morning, Syrian rebel factions having entered the Latakia Governorate and have advanced to the town of Qalaat Al Madiq, located northwest of Hama. Syrian rebel factions, particularly those active near Qalaat Al Madiq, have demonstrated a capacity for bold operations aimed at high-value targets. A direct assault, particularly at a close range, could lead to significant rebel casualties with limited chances of success. The decision will ultimately hinge on the rebels’ assessment of risk versus reward, their resources, and the evolving dynamics of the Syrian conflict. Russia has made it abundantly clear that any attack on its Khmeimim Air Base in Syria will be met with overwhelming force, underscoring its unyielding support for the Assad regime. Strikes on key rebel strongholds have demonstrated both the reach and the resolve of Russian forces. (Source: Bulgarianmilitary - Bulgaria)
by Nikolov

3rd December 2024  Turkey and its proxies continued to fight a brutal war against the Kurds, aided and abetted by the US, which blithely abandoned its erstwhile Kurdish allies. Iranian militias, including thousands of soldiers from Hezbollah, were engaged in the suppression of Sunni-jihadist militancy in the west. Russia continued to provide Assad with an often brutal military security blanket. And what was left of the violent, jihadist opposition was pushed into the borderlands of the north and north-west, where it has survived – and in HTS’s case, prospered – ’under the protection of Turkey’. For much of the past six years, the conflict in Syria has largely been held in abeyance by this complex geopolitical web. But precisely because of the internationalisation of the Syrian conflict, as soon as that web has started to unravel, so too has Syria’s stability. It began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In the face of staunch Ukrainian resistance, Russia was forced to redeploy troops from Syria to the frontlines in Ukraine, alongside some significant hardware, including air-defence systems. Russia’s presence in Syria was further reduced in 2023, after the Kremlin curtailed the Syrian operations of the Wagner Group, following the attempted coup against the Kremlin staged by its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Then came Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October last year. Up until then, Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah had been expanding their military activities in Syria, shoring up Assad at the same time as they intensified their shadow war on Israel. Indeed, Iran had even helped establish a new proxy group in Syria, known as Syrian Hezbollah, comprising thousands of fighters from Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. But from 7 October onwards, Hezbollah itself started to pull almost all of its troops back to fight Israel from Lebanon, while Israel itself staged attacks on Iranian militias on Syrian soil. This withdrawal of Russian and Iranian support for the Assad government has removed one of the cornerstones for what stability there was in Syria. And in the process it has drawn other regional players further in and, most strikingly, empowered the Islamist militias seeking Assad’s downfall. Indeed, isis activity in the south and largely deserted centre of Syria has been increasing in tempo for at least a year – in June and July alone, it staged attacks on government forces daily, killing nearly 70 Syrian soldiers. And now, of course, the sudden vulnerability of Assad has allowed HTS, a brutal, ’30,000-strong’ jihadist militia, to stage its spectacular conquest of Aleppo. HTS’s march on Aleppo is just one part of the broader, geopolitical shift now playing out in Syria. The retreat of Iran, its proxies and the Russian military has, above all, given Turkey greater rein to pursue its own regional ambitions. After all, it is no coincidence that HTS launched its offensive from ’Idlib, the Turkey-controlled Syrian province in the north’. The Turkish state is denying any involvement in HTS’s assault, and Turkish forces have fought HTS in the past. But it seems unlikely given Turkey’s command of thousands in the anti-Assad, anti-Kurdish network that it wasn’t at least aware of what was being planned. Turkey is certainly taking advantage of the instability. Since the HTS offensive last week, Turkish-aligned forces have now escalated their attacks against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, as part of their broader war on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey seems intent on securing as much power and influence over and in Syria as possible – not least because it’s very keen on returning the over three million Syrian refugees now encamped in Turkey. The latest upsurge in the Syrian conflict is very far from a local affair. It is a product of geopolitical instability, and international and regional powers jostling for control and influence in pursuit of their very different aims. All of this is happening largely over the heads of Syrian civilians themselves. First international actors turned Syrians into bystanders in their own uprising. Since then, they have been turned into spectators to a deadly ‘civil war’, waged by outside powers and their proxies. Over half a million are estimated to have been killed since the war began, and many millions more have been displaced. And for what? A future under the thumb of Assad and his Russian backers, or at the feet of barbaric Islamists? (Source: Spike – United Kingdom)

Dec 3, 2024  On November 27, jihadist terror groups - led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Organization for the Liberation of the Levant; HTS) — launched a coordinated attack on Aleppo Governorate in northwestern Syria, cut off the main highway from Damascus to Aleppo, captured and killed dozens of Syrian Army soldiers, promised mass executions and beheadings 'in front of TV cameras,' and seized control of a military base and several villages. Meanwhile, the jihadists posted videos on social media showing them capturing several training aircraft in the Kuweires Air Base near Aleppo. The city of Aleppo is now effectively under the control of jihadist groups. Tens of thousands of Christians, Kurds and other minorities are in danger of extermination. Videos of jihadists abducting Kurdish women have also surfaced on social media. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, part of an alliance of terrorist groups active in Syria and with links to the islamic state (isis) and Al-Qaeda, was formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, and served as Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. The organization is a jihadist group that upholds Sharia law, occupies Syria’s Idlib area and ’cooperates with the Turkish military and Turkish-backed groups in Syria’. Baghdadi, the leader of isis, was also involved in HTS’s formation. In 2018, the US State Department added HTS to the Jabhat al-Nusra’s existing designation as a foreign terrorist organization. (Source: Anglican Mainstream - Headquarters England)
by Bulut, Gatestone Institute

12/3/2024  In March 2003 Al-Jawlani, heading to Baghdad with fellow volunteers was eager to repel the looming American invasion of Iraq. He returned home in 2011, after a five-year ’stint’ in an American-run prison camp in Iraq. ’Jawlani arrived in Syria with bags full of cash’, and a mission to take the extremist movement global. Last week, Jawlani, 42, triumphantly entered Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, as the leading commander of the Turkish-backed rebel force dominated by his group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Born al-Sharaa, the nom de guerre of Jawlani is a reference to his family’s roots in the Golan Heights that Israel seized from Syria in 1967. He broke with Islamic State in 2012, cut ties with al Qaeda in 2016, and ’since then he has fought both organizations in bloody campaigns’. 'They haven’t been part of these entities longer than they were with them, and it’s now been essentially 8½ years that they have forsworn global jihad,' said Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of a recent book on HTS. Jawlani has turned HTS - which has run a statelet of its own in Syria’s northern Idlib province since 2015 - ’into a well-disciplined force that focuses squarely on Syria, a blend of Islamism and nationalism that is closer to Afghanistan’s Taliban and the Palestinian Hamas’. HTS troops choose to fight under the Syrian flag that dates back to the republic that existed before the 1963 Baath Party revolution that eventually brought the Assad family to power. ’HTS remains listed as a terrorist organization by the U.S., and Washington offers a $10 million bounty on Jawlani. Yet the U.S. hasn’t targeted Jawlani or other top HTS commanders since he proclaimed nearly a decade ago that he doesn’t seek to be America’s enemy. Since the first Trump administration, which negotiated a deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan, Jawlani and HTS have sought an agreement that would lift the Syrian group’s terrorist designation’. 'The transformation from a small-time Syrian jihadist in Iraq to the leader of the Syrian revolution? I am rather doubtful,” said Balanche, a specialist on Syria at the University of Lyon 2. “Yes, Jawlani probably became more bourgeois with age, and may have renounced part of his radical ideology. But I think it’s more likely that he’s playing taqiya - concealing his real intentions.' Rights groups have accused HTS of arbitrarily detaining activists, journalists and other civilians voicing critical opinions, and have alleged torture and ill-treatment of those in detention. 'They went from global jihad to local regime - and now they are similar to a lot of regimes in the Arab world in their authoritarian tendencies,' said Zelin. The presence of hundreds, if not thousands, of foreign fighters within the HTS ranks - Chechens, Turks, Iraqis, Central Asians and especially Uyghurs from Xinjiang, China - represents a major issue for the international community. Absorbing Aleppo with a diverse population of more than two million Jawlani issued edicts ordering the protection of Christians and Shiites. In Aleppo was no looting, and shops and restaurants reopened the next day. “In the future Syria, we believe that diversity is our strength, not a weakness,” said the latest such decree yesterday. Jawlani’s HTS has allowed encircled Kurdish forces to leave unharmed. Security and administration were better in areas under Jawlani’s control than in those held by other rebel factions in northern Syria. In recent years, the group has interfered less in people’s lives. They will stay that way? Or not. “They’ve learned how to play the game,” said Fernandez, vice president of the Middle East Media Research Institute and a former State Department coordinator for counterterrorism communications. 'They still have what we would call extremist ideology, but they are not stupid extremists, and they are nationalist extremists. Jawlani knows that he has to moderate his tone, for example, on minorities, because this is something that people in the West will throw in his face.” (Source: MSN / WSJ - U.S.)
By Trofimov and Coles

North America

United States
8:06 am, December 3, 2024  The White House has announced a $725 million aid package for Ukraine, including 'substantial quantities' of artillery, rockets, and air defense systems, according to a statement from White House National Security Advisor Sullivan. President Biden has directed the rapid delivery of these resources to Ukraine, Sullivan added. By mid-January, Sullivan stated, the U.S. plans to supply 'hundreds of thousands' of additional artillery shells, thousands of rockets, and 'critical capabilities' to bolster Ukraine’s defense. (Source: Meduza - Headquartered in Riga, Latvia)

8:04 am, December 3, 2024  The U.S. military used its hotline with Moscow to communicate about the developing situation in Syria, Pentagon spokesman Major General Ryder said yesterday. “My understanding is that the CJTFOIR commander has used the hotline that we have with Russia to ensure that we have open lines of communication given the fact that we do have forces operating in fairly close proximity as it relates geographically to Syria,” Ryder told. He noted that the hotline exists “to prevent potential miscalculation.” Source: Meduza - Headquartered in Riga, Latvia)

3 December 2024  Hegseth was on a work trip in the state of Ohio on May 29, 2015, for the group Concerned Veterans for America when he allegedly got drunk at the hotel bar and yelled multiple times, 'Kill all Muslims!' according to the New Yorker magazine. "Anyone who - even in a drunken state - would call for the slaughter of all members of a faith has disqualified himself from holding an important position that would inevitably interact with representatives of Muslim-majority nations," said Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), America's largest Muslim advocacy group's National Executive Director Awad, in a statement. Despite revelations, Trump is standing by his choice for Secretary of Defense. Confirmation hearings for Trump's Cabinet picks are expected to begin during the 119th Congressional session which stars on Jan. 3, 2025. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

Tuesday, December 03 2024  U.S. President-elect Trump said yesterday he will travel to Paris to attend this weekend’s reopening of the Notre-Dame Cathedral, which was gutted by fire over five years ago, in his first foreign trip since winning the election. The French government invited Trump to attend Saturday’s reopening ceremony and his team has been in discussions with Macron’s office about the trip. His planned visit comes amid political turmoil in France where the government is all but certain to collapse later this week after far-right and left-wing parties submitted no-confidence motions yesterday against Prime Minister Michel Barnier. (Source: DD News - India)

Tuesday, 03 Dec 2024 8:26 AM MYT  US President-elect Trump yesterday warned Gaza militants of massive repercussions if hostages are not released by the time he takes office. (Source: Malay Mail - Malaysia)

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2024. XII. 2. Ukraine, Guinea, Gaza, Japan, Lebanon, Syria, Philippines, United States, International Court of Justice

2024.12.05. 22:12 Eleve

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Europe

Ukraine
Dec 02, 2024 at 9:40 AM EST  Ukraine war map looks 'grim' for Zelensky as Russian offensive accelerates. In the three months to December, Moscow's troops had captured around 617 square miles in Ukraine and 190 in Russia's Kursk oblast. 'We do have to find diplomatic solutions,' Zelensky told Japanese news agency Kyodo News. This was a shift in Kyiv's prior rhetoric that full territorial integrity was central to any peace deal. (Source: Newsweek - U.S.)

Africa

Guinea
(2/12/2024)  Following a controversial decision by the referee, dispute broke out between fans of the local Nzerekore squad and supporters of the soccer team from the city of Labe. Security services used tear gas, it's use reportedly sparked panic. At least 56 people, including children, were killed when chaos broke out as the clashes moved through the streets of the city. (Source: DW - Germany / "(AP, AFP, Reuters")

Asia

Gaza
02.12.2024  At least 37 more Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip and injured 108 others in the last 24 hours, the Health Ministry in the enclave said today. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

December 2, 2024  Israeli forces bombarded houses in overnight attacks in the northern Gaza Strip, killing at least 15 people in one of the buildings in the town of Beit Lahiya. Several others were wounded in the attack and others were missing after a house providing shelter to displaced people was struck. (Source: Business Recorder - Pakistan)

Japan
Dec 2, 2024  In July 2023, the U.S.
announced that it would replace 36 F-16s at Misawa with 48 Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning IIs by 2026. United States’ strategic posture in the region, a force multiplier in any conflict scenario, Misawa hosted reconnaissance flights over the Soviet Union and China, gathering intelligence during a time of heightened tensions between the U.S. and the communist bloc. (Source: Bulgarianmilitary - Bulgaria)

Lebanon
December 02, 2024 7:18 AM  The days-old ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon appears to be largely holding, but some fighting is continuing. (Source: Voice of America - U.S. / "Some material in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters").

Syria
(Monday), 02 December 2024 | 10:25 AM  Syrian Christians in Aleppo
face grave danger after Islamist militias took over the city, local church leaders say. The militias, including jihadist groups, have seized control following the withdrawal of government forces. The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that more than 300 people, including at least 20 civilians, have been killed since the offensive began Wednesday. The rebels, led by Islamist militant group HTS and allied factions, have taken control of Aleppo's airport and dozens of towns nearby, reported the BBC. The Iraqi Christian Foundation reported on social media that militants had begun removing Christmas decorations and had beheaded captured soldiers. The group also called for prayers for Christians and other minorities in Aleppo. The Switzerland-based human rights group Christian Solidarity International (CSI) said in a statement that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra, had seized control of Aleppo, mirroring the Islamic State's capture of Mosul in 2014. This jihadist group's takeover has instilled fear among Aleppo's diverse religious communities, including Christians, Alawites, Shiites and non-observant Sunnis, due to HTS' history of enforcing a strict Sunni supremacist ideology with violent persecution, it noted. The United Nations' Commission of Inquiry on Syria has documented the brutal governance of HTS, marked by executions, torture, sexual violence, and arbitrary detentions, alongside the desecration of religious sites. These actions are reminiscent of the harsh rule experienced during their previous control from 2012 to 2016. Maronite Archbishop of Aleppo, Tobji, described the situation as being in limbo, noting that armed groups took over after a surprise offensive, as per Agenzia Fides. Nobody warned us, Tobji said, adding that despite the lack of current attacks on Christian targets, uncertainty looms over what might happen next. Citizens have not stocked supplies due to the lack of warning before the attacks. Shops and bakeries have ceased operations. According to Fr. Alaniz of the Institute of the Incarnate Word, almost all of Aleppo is now under militia control, with religious leaders visiting parishes to provide support. While their church remains open, many residents, including students and elderly, have moved to other parts of the city for safety. According to the Syrian army, the attack on Aleppo involved multiple axes, covering over 100 kilometers of frontlines. The army reported numerous casualties among its soldiers and acknowledged that rebels now control significant portions of the city. Government forces have vowed a counterattack but provided no specific timeline. The Russian air force conducted air strikes in Aleppo on Saturday, marking the first military intervention by Russia in the city since 2016, when it helped Syrian government forces recapture Aleppo, according to the BBC. The strikes aimed at rebel positions come as Syrian President Assad has pledged to "defend [Syria's] stability and territorial integrity," according to a statement from his office. HTS is a significant militant presence in Syria, and its leadership of the offensive has marked this as the most notable conflict in Syria's ongoing civil war since a ceasefire was agreed in 2020. "President Trump's special representative for Syria, Ambassador Jeffrey, acknowledged in 2021 that HTS had been functioning covertly as an 'asset' of Washington's Middle East policy, despite its designation as a terrorist organization,’ said Eibner, CSI's international president. Shortly before election day, President-Elect Trump pledged to protect persecuted Christians. "The incoming president now has a golden opportunity to fulfill his pledge," Eibner said. "Christians and others who value religious freedom and other fundamental human rights should insist that this pre-election pledge is honored. (Source: The Christian Post – U.S.)

Monday, December 2, 2024  Some 200 Tehran-backed Iraqi militiamen on pickups crossed into Syria overnight through the strategic Bou Kamal crossing to back government’s counteroffensive against insurgents. Syrian and Russian airstrikes on rebel positions continued mostly in Hama and Idlib provinces, at least 10 civilians were killed in Idlib city and province. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces were fleeing the fighting in large numbers after Turkish-backed rebels seized Tel Rifaat from rival U.S.-backed Kurdish authorities. (Source: The Washington Times - U.S.)

December 02 2024 15:20:33  'The terrorist escalation reflects the far-reaching goals of dividing the region and fragmenting the countries in it and redraw the map in line with the objectives of the United States and the West,' al-Assad said, according to a statement from the Syrian presidency. Air raids conducted jointly by the Syrian and Russian air forces on several areas of Idlib province in northwest Syria killed 11 civilians yesterday. Russia, which first intervened directly in the Syrian war in 2015, said yesterday it continued to support Assad. On the same day, Iran's Foreign Ministry said it would maintain its military support for the Syrian government. 'The Syrian National Army (SNA) of opposition is continuing its advance in the Tel Rifaat district as part of its Operation Dawn of Freedom, aimed at blocking the PKK/YPG's terrorist corridor between Tel Rifaat and Manbij'. (Source: Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey)

Philippines
December 2, 2024, 21:31 JST   China’s coast guard said today it had taken ’necessary control measures’ against ’illegal gathering’ of Philippine vessels in the disputed waters of Iroquois Reef in the South China Sea. The Philippine coast guard said in a statement today that despite possible harassment by the Chinese coast guard, Philippine vessels’ confidence in fishing in the West Philippine Sea “has significantly increased due to the (Philippines’) firm stance and commitment not to hand over the country’s territory to a foreign power.” The West Philippine Sea is Manila's term for the waters of the South China Sea that fall within its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea, including areas claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. China rejects a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that its sweeping claims were unfounded in international law. China's coast guard, reiterating its sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, warned the Philippines to ’immediately cease any violations and provocations.’ (Source: Nikkei – Japan / Reuters – United Kingdom)

North America

United States
Dec 02, 2024 at 3:39 PM EST  Biden's Hunter would have to answer questions about his business interests if called before Congress, a criminal defense lawyer has said. The upside to Biden's pardon is that Hunter no longer enjoys the right to assert his 5th Amendment Right against self incrimination and contempt of Congress is also a crime, Adams wrote. The Fifth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution protects people from having to answer questions before Congress if it could help a prosecution case against them or compel them to make self-incriminating statements. With Hunter now free from all his criminal cases, he cannot use the Fifth Amendment to refuse to answer questions. Biden could be prosecuted and even jailed for refusing to appear before Congress or for refusing to answer questions if he does appear before a Congressional panel. Hunter was due for sentencing on December 12 regarding a gun case in Delaware, and on December 16 for his tax evasion case in California. (Source: Newsweek - U.S.)

02, 2024 17:36 IST  President-elect Trump has picked Boulos, father-in-law of his daughter Tiffany, as the senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs. Boulos, a Lebanese businessman relocated to Texas during his teenage years was heavily involved in campaigning for Trump in Arab American communities in swing states. (Source: The Week - India)

(Monday), Dec. 2, 2024, 4:31 AM GMT+1  'I will not pardon him,' he said in June after a jury found Hunter guilty on three federal gun charges. Biden pardoned his son Hunter yesterday night for any offenses First Son has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 1, 2014 through December 1, 2024'. First Son Hunter was scheduled to be sentenced on Dec. 12 for his conviction on federal gun charges and also was set to be sentenced on Dec. 16 in a separate criminal case in which he pleaded guilty to federal tax evasion charges in September. (Source: NBC News - U.S.)
Note: Will he adopt as his sons people with the same accusations?

International Court of Justice

Monday, 02 December 2024  After years of lobbying by island nations who fear they could simply disappear under rising sea waters, the UN General Assembly asked the International Court of Justice last year for an opinion on the obligations of States in respect of climate change. The Hague-based top United Nations court took up the largest case in its history today, when it opened two weeks of hearings with fifteen judges and it will hear from 99 countries and more than a dozen intergovernmental organizations. The judges were briefed by the UN's climate change body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ahead of the hearings. In the decade up to 2023, 'sea levels have risen by a global average of around 4.3 centimeters, with parts of the Pacific rising higher still'. (Source: The Telegraph - India)

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2024. XII. 1. Syria

2024.12.05. 22:07 Eleve

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Syria
1 December 2024 14:36 PM  This is how Turkish-backed rebels are treating Kurdish women in Aleppo. If this is how they treat Muslim women who don’t wear a headscarf, what can be expected for Christian women? /Video/ (Source: X – U.S. / Greco-Levantines World Wide)
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2024. XI. 28. Hungary, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, Gaza, Kazakhstan, Syria, United States, NATO

2024.12.05. 22:06 Eleve

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Europe

Hungary
November 28, 2024  Yesterday,
Hungary’s currency forint weakened further, the EUR/HUF hit a two-year low, quoted at just below 413 after the close of the interbank market. The currency has lost 8% of its value against the euro and 13% against the dollar year-to-date. Hungary's export-oriented economy has benefited from the weaker currency over the past decade. The forint’s decline has increased the appeal of the euro and brought the question of the euro adoption. In the early 2000s, there was broad agreement that Hungary should take steps to join the eurozone. Last year, Monetary Council member Pleschinger said the country may be able to adopt the currency in the 2030s. More people are converting their savings into euros or pricing transactions in foreign currency, particularly in the real estate market, where a significant number of investment-oriented purchases are by foreign buyers. Hungary's GDP adjusted to purchasing power parity was around 76% of the EU average in 2023, and now the country does not meet the Maastricht criteria to adopt the euro either. The Orbán government has consistently opposed euro adoption, citing concerns over the loss of national sovereignty. The MNB has maintained real interest rates at the highest levels in the region. This stance has faced criticism from government officials. MNB Governor Matolcsy's mandate ends in March. „Finance Minister Varga is expected to succeed him”. ’A government reshuffle will merge the finance and economy ministries into a single development-focused entity’. Analysts caution that a more dovish approach under the new MNB leadership could intensify pressure on the forint, particularly if aggressive monetary easing is pursued. (Source: bneIntelli News – Germany)
by Csonka

Romania
November 28, 2024  The Constitutional Court in Bucharest
said in a statement today that it had unanimously ordered the reverification and recounting of the voting ballots for the November 24 presidential election. The court said the decision was final. 'Georgescu, the pro-Russian far-right independent candidate is set to face off against center-right Lasconi, a staunch Euro-Atlanticist, in the December 8 runoff after both pushed ahead of favorite leftist Prime Minister Ciolacu'. (Source: Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty – U.S.)

Russia
1:27 pm, November 28, 2024 
Russia’s new Oreshnik ballistic missile could target decision-making centers in Kyiv, Russian President Putin said, speaking at a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Kazakhstan today. He warned that Russia will continue combat testing the missile, in response to strikes by Ukraine using long-range Western-made missiles in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions. The Russian Defense Ministry and General Staff are currently selecting targets for Oreshnik strikes in Ukraine, Putin said. The Russian leader also said the new missile is capable of striking well-protected targets located deep in Ukraine. In a massive attack using multiple Oreshniks, the power of the strike would be comparable to the use of nuclear weapons, he claimed. Oreshnik is not a weapon of mass destruction as its use without a nuclear warhead does not lead to radioactive contamination, Putin added. The temperature of the striking elements reaches 4,000 degrees Celsius. This means that everything in the explosion’s epicenter is broken down into fractions, into elementary particles, essentially turning into dust, according him. Russia has multiple Oreshnik missiles ready for use. He also announced that serial production of the missiles has already begun, although he was reported to have ordered such production just days ago. He claimed that Russia produces 10 times more missiles than all NATO countries combined and that its missile production will increase by 25–30 percent next year. (Source: Meduza - Headquartered in Riga, Latvia)

Ukraine
Thursday 28 November 2024 at 9:33am  Russia has launched a massive missile and drone attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure today. Explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Lutsk, and many other cities in central and western Ukraine. Over 280,000 households in the northwestern Rivne region are currently without electricity because of the attack. On the bordering Volyn region 215,000 households have no electricity. 'All critical infrastructure that lost power has been switched to generators". Local officials ordered the opening of the “points of invincibility” - shelter-type places where people can charge their phones and other devices and get refreshments during blackouts. In Kyiv the air raid alert lasted over nine hours. No casualties were reported. (Source: ITV – United Kingdom)

28.11.2024  Ukraine says massive Russian missile attack targeted the energy sector. Strikes on energy facilities are happening across Ukraine, Energy Minister Halushchenko said. The country’s power grid operator Ukrenergo implemented emergency power cuts which have affected Kyiv, as well as the Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk regions. Power outages were also reported by local authorities across multiple regions of Ukraine, including Lviv, Rivne, and Volyn. Ukraine’s national railway company Ukrzaliznytsia said that more than 150 of its trains are running on schedule despite the missile strikes, which it said resulted in power cuts in certain sections of the country’s railway system. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

Gaza
28 November 2024  Israel
building new military dividing line across Gaza. This partition stretches about 9km across Gaza, from east to west, dividing Gaza City and the towns of Jabalia, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia in north Gaza, separating off the far north of the strip. Satellite images show that hundreds of buildings have been demolished between the Mediterranean sea and the Israel border. Videos filmed by the IDF and posted online show several multi-storey buildings being destroyed in controlled explosions since the beginning of October. Images also show Israeli vehicles have been stationed across the new divide indicating that Israeli troops are in control of the area. The images suggest Gaza is being split into zones to make it easier to control. Dr Hellyer, a Middle East security expert from the Rusi think tank, said the satellite images suggested Israel was preparing to block Palestinian civilians from returning to the north Gaza governorate. More than 100,000 people have already been displaced from the far north of Gaza, according to the UN. An IDF spokesperson told that it had no intention of destroying civilian infrastructure without operational necessity to neutralise Hamas. Some analysts believe the IDF’s presence could indicate a permanent military partition – giving it control of who can travel between the Gaza and the north Gaza governorates. Two partitions have been constructed in Gaza since the start of the current war. The Netzarim Corridor - completed in May - splits area south of Gaza City, while the Philadelphi Corridor gives the IDF control of land running the length of Gaza’s border with Egypt. Buildings and agricultural land are cleared so roads can be paved and military infrastructure built, military positions emerging at regular intervals. Dr Hecht from the Begin–Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (Besa), an Israeli think tank specialising in national security and foreign policy, agreed that the data showed a new dividing line, but questioned whether it was designed to be permanent. 'There is a new partition corridor separating Gaza City and the northern towns of the Gaza Strip. The goal is to cut off the Hamas - and other organizations' - forces that have returned to that area from support and the ability to retreat, so they can be dealt with more effectively.” Israel has denied that it is implementing the "General’s Plan". Under the strategy, devised by former general EIland, civilians would be told to leave the north, supplies would be blocked and the area would become a military zone. Those who remained would be treated as combatants and faced with the choice of surrender or starve", with aim of putting pressure on Hamas to release its hostages. The claim that the IDF is implementing this specific plan is incorrect, an IDF spokesperson said. The UN and aid charities have raised significant concerns about the situation in the north of Gaza - up to 60,000 people could remain in the area. The UN also says that virtually no aid has entered the North Gaza governorate in 50 days. Palestinians were facing critical shortages of supplies and services, as well as severe overcrowding and poor hygiene conditions due to the blockade. Around 90% of north Gaza has been subject to evacuation orders since the start of October, people being moved south of the new partition. Israel’s foreign minister has insisted civilians will be allowed to return after the war. Heavy fighting has also persisted in the area. Videos posted by Hamas fighters show clashes with IDF tanks in the area around the dividing line. Dr Hellyer suggested that the new partition could form the basis of plan to expel Palestinians from the area permanently. ’Personally I think they're going to settle Jewish settlers in the north, probably in the next 18 months,’ he said. ’To begin with they'll call them outposts or whatever, but that's what they'll be and they'll grow from there.’ "All three corridors (Philadelphi in the south, Netzarim just south of Gaza City and the new one just north of Gaza City) are for control purposes," Dr Hecht said. "The duration of their existence depends on when the war ends and in what manner it ends.” (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

28 November, 2024 9:31 AM  Israeli strikes killed at least 17 Palestinians in Gaza today, medics reported, as bombardments intensified and tanks advanced in the enclave's north and south. "Lebanon ceasefire holds' - 'Israeli tank fire hit three towns along Lebanon's southeast border with Israel' today; tank fire struck Markaba, Wazzani and Kfarchouba, all of which lie within two kilometres of the Blue Line demarcating the border between Lebanon and Israel). (Source: The New Arab - headquartered in London, awned by a Qatary company)

Kazakhstan
14:09, 28 November 2024 | GMT +6  The joint sitting
of the Council of Foreign Ministers, Council of Defense Ministers and Committee of the Secretaries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO) Collective Security Council was held in the Kazakh capital. The sitting took place today, November 28, in Astana under the chairmanship of Kazakhstan. Those present focused on the military and political situation in the CSTO Collective Security regions and CSTO activities in the inter-sessional period. Special attention was paid to the international agenda. They also shared views on the situation in the Middle East and Afghanistan. Following the talks, they approved the draft documents to be submitted to the CSTO Collective Security Council, including the CSTO Declaration, Statement of the Collective Security Council and Action Plan on the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the 'World Patriotic War'. (Source: Kazinform - Kazakhstan)

Syria
28 November, 2024  More than 130 dead in army-rebel clashes between the Syrian army and fighters of the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) along with allied factions in the country's northwest province of Aleppo. The toll has risen to 132, including 65 fighters from HTS, 18 from allied factions "and 49 members of regime forces, said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor. The armed groups have launched a large-scale attack on areas controlled by government forces, the Observatory said. The factions were trying to cut the Aleppo-Damascus international highway. HTS, led by Al-Qaeda's former Syria branch, controls swathes of much of the northwest Idlib area and slivers of neighbouring Aleppo, Hama and Latakia provinces. Russian warplanes intensified air strikes, targeting areas in Idlib province. The Idlib region is subject to a ceasefire - repeatedly violated but still largely holding - brokered by Turkey and Damascus ally Russia after a Syrian government offensive in March 2020. Syria's conflict broke out in 2011, drawing in foreign armies and armed groups. It has killed more than 500,000 people, displaced millions and battered the country's infrastructure and industry. (Source: The New Arab - Headquartered in London, owned by a Qatary company)

(Thursday), Nov 28, 2024  'Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, once known as al-Nusra Front), and Turkish-backed armed opposition factions, aka the Syrian National Army (SNA), launched yesterday a coordinated attack on positions of the Syrian government forces in northwestern Syria. The HTS announced control over vital government sites in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib, killing and capturing dozens of government soldiers. Pro-government media, however, reported that the government forces deterred the attacks and intensified airstrikes, killing dozens of the attackers, as fierce clashes continue across the region. The attack involves the HTS and the al-Fateh al-Mubin Operations Room, a group of opposition and extremist factions operating in the countryside of Aleppo, Hama, Latakia, and Idlib, which is led by the HTS. The Turkish-backed SNA’s Levant Front (al-Jabha al-Shamiya) faction is also participating in the attack. This faction has recently experienced tensions with the Syrian Interim Government and the so-called 'Joint Force,' which consists of Sultan Suleiman Shah faction (al-Amshat) and Hamza Division, both of which are among Turkey’s closest allies. Despite prior conflicts, opposition-affiliated platforms have reported that elements of the Joint Force are also participating in the attack. Leaders within HTS are directly overseeing the military operation.' (Source: North Press Agency - ’a Syrian news agency’ /?/)

North America

United States
28.11.2024  Trump says Mexican president has agreed to stop migration into US through Mexico. ‘We reiterate that Mexico's position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and between peoples,’ Mexican president Sheinbaum Pardo responds. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

28 November 2024  Meta boss Zuckerberg has visited Trump at his resort in Mar-a-Lago. Meta has though been facing increasing regulation in recent years, including an ongoing antitrust case brought by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in 2020. Historically, there has been no such closeness between Trump and Mr Zuckerberg - with Trump barred from Facebook and Instagram after the Capitol riots in 2021. But that suspension has since been lifted. In August this year, Mr Zuckerberg spoke of his regret at de-promoting content relating to allegations about Biden's son Hunter, which had been a right-wing talking point in the US prior to the 2020 presidential election. He also said he would make no more contributions to support electoral infrastructure, after a $400m donation in 2020 was viewed by some online as a way of skirting donation limits. In August, Trump wrote in a book Mr Zuckerberg would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if he attempted to interfere in the 2024 US election. But the president-elect softened his position, telling a podcast in October it was nice Mr Zuckerberg was staying out of the election, and thanking him for a personal phone call after he faced an assassination attempt. It is not known what the two men discussed over dinner at Trump's Florida home. Mr Zuckerberg's apparently improving relations with the president-elect have been totally eclipsed by Trump's closeness to Musk. Mr Zuckerberg and Mr Musk have a longstanding rivalry. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

NATO

Nov 28 2024  Italy takes over the helm for NATO's Deployable Air Command and Control Centre (DACCC). In November 21, the change of command ceremony, officiated by General Hecker, Commander of Allied Air Command in Ramstein, Germany, took place at the Italian Air Force Aerospace Operations Command (COA) in Poggio Renatico. The ceremony marked the transfer of responsibilities between Major General Traas of the Royal Netherlands Air Force and Major General Maineri, who also serves as Commander of the COA. (Source: Allied Air Command Public Affairs Office - Headquarters Ramstein, Germany)

.4 11 28 21:12

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2024. XI. 30. Russia, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria

2024.11.30. 12:00 Eleve

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Asia

Russia
Nov 30, 2024, 11:35 AM  Russia successfully launched the Soyuz-2.1a rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome of Russia's Far East early today, placing the Kondor-FKA No. 2 radar satellite into its designated orbit. A Kondor-FKA satellite weighs approximately 1,050 kg and has a five-year operational lifespan. Unlike optical satellites, the Kondor-FKA series can penetrate cloud cover and operate in darkness, making them indispensable for a variety of tasks, including mapping, environmental monitoring, natural resource exploration, and guiding vessels through ice-covered routes, such as the Northern Sea Route during polar nights. Equipped with advanced radar technology, the Kondor-FKA satellites enable all-weather, round-the-clock Earth observation, Xinhua reported. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran)

Gaza
(Saturday, 30 November 2024)  Israeli military strikes killed at least 40 Palestinians overnight and yesterday in the Gaza Strip, medics said. They had recovered 19 bodies of Palestinians killed in northern areas of Nuseirat, one of the enclave's eight long-standing refugee camps. Later on Friday, an Israeli air strike killed at least 10 Palestinians in a house in Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza, medics said. Others were killed in the northern and southern areas of the Gaza Strip, medics added. The Palestinian civil emergency service, Hamas and the Palestinian official news agency WAFA put the number of Palestinians killed in two Israeli strikes in Beit Lahiya in the past 24 hours at 70. There was no immediate confirmation of the figure by the local health ministry. Kamal Adwan Hospital is one of three medical facilities on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip that barely function now due to shortages of medical, fuel, and food supplies. Most of its medical staff have been detained or expelled by the Israeli army, health officials say. (Source: Gulf Today - United Arab Emirates)

Lebanon
November 30, 2024  Lebanese returning to the southern city of Tyre. In the buildings that are still standing, there is no food, electricity or running water. Two months of a vicious war have left southern Lebanon in ruins. /Video/ (Source: The National - United Arab Emirates)

Syria
30/11/2024 - 07:22  Syrian authorities closed Aleppo airport and all key access roads today, as rebel fighters, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al Sham, opposed to President Assad, reaches heart of the city. They are returning to the city for the first time since 2016, when Assad and his allies Russia, Iran, and regional Shi'ite militias retook it. Jaber, a commander in the Jaish al-Izza rebel brigade, said their speedy advance this week had been helped by a lack of Iran-backed manpower in the broader Aleppo province. Iran's allies in the region have suffered a series of blows at the hands of Israel as the Gaza war has expanded through the Middle East. Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey, which supports the rebels, had given a green light to the offensive. Yesterday, Syrian state television denied rebels had reached the city and said Russia was providing Syria's military with air support. Russia, one of Assad's key allies, has promised Damascus extra military aid to thwart the rebels. The Syrian army has been told to follow "safe withdrawal" orders from the main areas of the city. The Syrian military said it was fighting back against the attack and had inflicted heavy losses on the insurgents in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib. The attack is the biggest since March 2020, when Russia and Turkey agreed to a deal to de-escalate the conflict. Relentless attacks over the past three days have claimed the lives of at least 27 civilians, including children as young as 8 years old, Carden, U.N. Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis, said." (Source: France 24 / Reuters – United Kingdom)

.4 11 30 11:45

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2024. XI. 29. Romania, European Commission, European Union, Georgia, Russia, Ukraine, Chad, South Korea, United States

2024.11.30. 01:34 Eleve

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Europe

Romania
29.11.2024  Romanian Premier
Marcel Ciolacu withdrew from the presidential race, whose second round was scheduled to be held on Dec. 8, local media reported on today. Ciolacu’s move came after the constitutional court decided to re-count the votes cast in the first round of the race on Nov. 28. "If it is proven after the recount that I was at a disadvantage, I am announcing that I am withdrawing from the race for the presidency of Romania anyway," he said in a statement. Ciolacu's withdrawal may complicate the presidential elections if the recount places him in second place - possibly making far-right candidate Georgescu the winner. Yesterday, Romania's Constitutional Court ordered a recount of the first round of the presidential vote. The decision came at the official request of National Conservative Party leader Terhes, who claimed that in several sections there were corrections to the number of votes for presidential candidate Ludovic Orban. In an unexpected result, ultranationalist candidate Georgescu won the first round of the presidential election held on Sunday. Voters were choosing between 13 candidates to replace outgoing President Iohannis. The top two candidates are set to compete in a runoff on Dec. 8. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

European Commission
29.11.2024  The outgoing EU foreign policy chief, today
acknowledged criticism of the EU’s ’double standards’ in its inconsistent stance on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, saying that this idea spread widely in the countries of the Global South. Before leaving his position, Borrell evaluated his five-year tenure on his blog. He said the bloc has not managed to be consistent and effective in the Middle East. He said some EU member states are major suppliers of arms to Israel while the EU is the leading supplier of aid to the Palestinian people via the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) and the Palestinian Authority but is also Israel's leading partner in terms of trade, investment, and exchanges of people. Borrell said the bloc's ’deep divisions’ on this issue have largely prevented them from influencing the course of events, despite the growing number of civilian casualties – over 44,000 killed by Israel to date. ’This impotence and passivity, in contrast to the vigour of our commitment in support of Ukraine, have often been perceived outside the Union as the sign of a ‘double standard. He said this idea is spreading widely in the countries of the Global South. Borrell added: ’And not just in Muslim countries: I was struck by the extent to which this criticism was also regularly levelled at us throughout Latin America or Sub-Saharan Africa.’ (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

European Union
29.11.2024 
All EU member states ’are under an obligation to execute arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC),’ EU spokesperson Stano told in a written statement yesterday, specifically noting the warrants issued for two top Israeli officials in the ongoing war on Gaza. The ICC’s mandate is “to prosecute the most serious crimes under international law,” he said, stressing that all EU member states “that have ratified the Rome Statute … are under an obligation to execute arrest warrants issued by the ICC.” The ICC last week issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. While some EU countries announced they would implement the warrants if the Israeli officials set foot on their territory, others were less clear, and one said there would be no arrests. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

November 29, 2024  The European Union faces economic and strategic risks threatening its global relevance and ability to deliver on goals such as the 2030 Agenda. Climate dogmas collapse as soon as realpolitik comes to the fore. Europe is at a historic crossroads: adapt to a multipolar world where BRICS leads the change or is left behind as a bystander. In a world that no longer revolves around the G7, the EU’s influence in regions such as Africa and Asia is declining. While BRICS attracts emerging economies with concrete proposals, Europe offers conditions and policies that no longer resonate with a ‘Global South’ that demands respect and autonomy. BRICS dominance in oil production and access to strategic minerals represents a direct challenge to Europe’s green transition. Countries such as China and Russia control essential resources for clean technologies, leaving the EU vulnerable. If it was once vulnerable to Russia in hydrocarbons, it will now be susceptible to more countries thanks to climate fanaticism. Exacerbated by Moscow’s isolation as a supplier, import dependency threatens to increase costs and weaken supply chains. Der Leyen and her team have tried to mitigate this risk through global agreements, but growing intra-BRICS trade and the integration of players such as Indonesia and Nigeria redraw markets. Meanwhile, Europe remains caught up in internal debates over gender, what representativity really means, and bureaucracy, losing sight of critical geopolitical challenges. Europe must offer honest and respectful alternatives to the BRICS model. It must also focus on competitiveness, investing in technological innovation, infrastructure, and nuclear energy as the basis for energy independence. (Source: Brussels Signal)

Georgia
29.11.2024  Yesterday evening Prime Minister
Irakli Kobakhidze held a meeting with the parliamentary majority and the government team followed by a briefing at the Georgian Dream headquarters. During the briefing, he announced that Georgia was suspending its process of integration into the European Union until 2028. According to Kobakhidze, talks with the EU are being used as a tool for blackmail Georgia and to divide Georgian society. Kobakhidze’s statement came after a European Parliament resolution, declared the October 26 parliamentary elections in Georgia ’rigged’, the EP refuses to recognize the election results and demands re-election. Yesterday Georgian President Zourabichvili issued a statement condemning the authorities’ decision to suspend EU negotiations, describing it as ’their final turn away from Europe toward Russia.’ ’She urgently contacted ambassadors from Western partner countries, as well as opposition and civil society representatives, calling on them to unite and fight to the end’. Protests erupted ’spontaneously’ in Tbilisi and several other cities. Zourabichvili also declared herself the ’only constitutional authority in the country’ as president, personally joined the protest, appealing to the special forces not to use violence against participants. By 10 p.m., tens of thousands of demonstrators converged on the Parliament building, turning the protest into a massive rally that lasted through the night on Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi. Special forces, the criminal police, and specialized equipment were deployed along the Avenue. Early today, Zourabichvili posted on her X page, expressing hope for a firm response from European leaders to what she called the ’extremely brutal dispersal’ of the protests in Tbilisi. Demonstrators were met with water cannons and tear gas on multiple occasions. Around 6:30 a.m., a large group of police and special forces moved along Rustaveli Avenue toward Republic Square and on their way, they beat and detained protesters. The total number of arrests remains unclear, but it is likely to be in the dozens. /Photo/ (Source: ’JAM News, founded with the assistance from the UK Conflict, Stability and Security Fund in 2016; major donor today the European Endowment for Democracy which receives funding from the European Commission and twenty-three European countries').

Russia
9:02 am, November 29, 2024  Since the first day of the full-scale invasion, journalists from Mediazona and BBC News Russian have worked with volunteers to track reports of Russian military deaths using open sources. They have identified the names of 80,973 Russian military personnel killed in the Russia-Ukraine war since February 2022, majority of whom were civilians before full-scale war. 52 percent of total losses includes those who voluntarily signed contracts after the war began. Their share of the overall confirmed losses now stands at 22 percent. The rapid increase in losses among volunteer soldiers continues. Many of these volunteers die within two to four weeks of being sent to the front lines. The proportion of losses among convicts recruited to fight has been decreasing. In November 2023, they represented 26 percent of total losses; now, they account for 18 percent. The journalists emphasize that the actual death toll is higher, as not all casualty reports make it into publicly available sources. (Source: Meduza - Headquartered in Riga, Latvia))

Ukraine
8:56 am, November 29, 2024  Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tykhyi said yesterday that Kyiv has discussed lowering the conscription age with its allies. 'We keep our partners informed about the dynamics of mobilization in Ukraine,' Tykhyi said. He said that the issue has not become a 'point of disagreement or tension' in discussions with Western countries. He emphasized that Ukraine’s current priority is securing weapons and equipment for its already mobilized troops. (Meduza - Headquartered in Riga, Latvia)

November 29, 2024 08:18 GMT  Klimenko, 77, overcomes power cuts resulting from Russian air strikes with his own energy, by pedaling a bicycle hooked up to an electricity generator that lights his home and charges his phone as Russia continues to pound Ukrainian power stations and other energy infrastructure. He also has his own wind turbine and solar panels. /Video/ (Source: Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty - U.S.)

Africa

Chad
November 29, 2024, 8:39 AM  Chad's government said it was ending a defense cooperation agreement with France in order to redefine the nation's sovereignty from its former colonial ruler. The decision to end the agreement would allow Chad to redefine its strategic partnerships in line with national priorities, foreign ministry spokesperson Koulamallah said yesterday. The Central African nation gained independence more than six decades ago. Chad was one of the last countries in the region where the French maintained a large military presence, having been ousted in recent years from Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, after years of fighting Islamic extremists alongside regional troops. Those countries have inched closer to Russia, which has mercenaries deployed across the Sahel. Chad’s interim president, Deby Itno, seized power after his father, who ran the country for more than three decades, was killed fighting rebels in 2021. France has some 1,000 troops in the region, and the statement didn't specify when they had to leave. Last year, the government announced it was extending the 18-month transition for two more years, which led to protests across the country. Chad said the decision in no way calls into question the countries’ historical ties and wants to maintain relations in other areas of common interest. Analysts say the decision creates an opportunity for other nations, notably Russia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. (Source: ABC News / Associated Press - U.S.)

Asia

South Korea
Nov 29, 2024, 03:57 PM  South Korea said today it had completed development of a new ballistic missile interceptor, adding another layer to defence systems deployed to protect against missile threats from neighbouring North Korea. The long-range-surface-to-air missile (L-SAM) is designed to intercept incoming ballistic missiles or aircraft at altitudes higher than 40km in the terminal phase of its descent, the defence ministry said. L-SAM uses the 'hit-to-kill' manoeuvre. The L-SAM will become operational in the mid- to late 2020s after mass production begins in 2025. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

North America

United States
29 November 2024  US President-elect Trump has announced his pick to negotiate an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general served as a national security adviser in Trump's first administration. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

. 4 11 30 01:09

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2024. IV. 11. United States. I. America First, Russia, & Ukraine: Research Report

2024.11.29. 19:07 Eleve

 

America First, Russia, & Ukraine: Research Report.

The America First approach to national security provides guidelines on how the tragic failures of the Ukraine War can be brought to an end. Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine was an avoidable crisis – tragedy - that, due to President Biden’s incompetence, his chaotic foreign policy, the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies and rejection of the America First approach to national security, has entangled America in an endless war. The Biden Administration’s risk-averse pattern in the armament of Ukraine coupled with a failure in diplomacy with Russia has prolonged the war in Ukraine, which now finds itself in a war of attrition with Russia. Bringing the Russia-Ukraine war to a close will require strong, America First leadership to deliver a peace deal and immediately end the hostilities between the two warring parties. The war has divided Americans and the conservative movement over what America’s involvement in this conflict should be and how the Ukraine War affects European and global stability. Advocates of aggressive U.S. support, including some who call for direct U.S. military involvement, view the war as a significant threat to American, European, and international security. They claim that without robust and limitless American military aid to Ukraine, Russia will move after conquering Ukraine to rebuild the former Soviet Union and invade other countries, including NATO members. Some of these advocates claim that a Russian victory in Ukraine would undermine democracy and security in other areas of the world and could encourage China to invade Taiwan. Those who hold this view, especially President Biden, have strongly criticized as pro-Russia, pro-Putin, anti-democracy, and isolationist anyone who has opposed or even expressed skepticism about American military aid to Ukraine. Although some U.S. critics of military aid to Zelenskyy’s government might indeed be isolationists, the vast majority are Americans worried about whether America’s vital strategic interests are at stake in the Ukraine War, the potential of the involvement of U.S. military forces and whether America is engaged in a proxy war with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear conflict. They also see the need to establish a plan to end this war and not simply provide weapons for a conflict that appears to have become a long-term stalemate. „A primary requirement for the America First approach to U.S. national security is first a competent and decisive commander-in-chief—a president who exercises strong leadership on the world stage, names exemplary national security officials, and implements a coherent and effective foreign policy to protect America from foreign threats and promote its interests abroad”. „The America First approach also requires a strong military, the prudent use of U.S. military force, and keeping U.S. troops out of unnecessary and unending wars. It means working in alliances and with partners to promote regional security while requiring alliance members and allies to carry their full weight in defending security in the region”. A strong and decisive president who stood up to Russian President Putin with a tough and coherent U.S. foreign policy for Russia, Ukraine, and NATO could have prevented Putin from ordering the February 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In our view, tough and coherent policies implemented by President Trump are why Russia refrained from invading its neighbors during his presidency but felt no such constraints during the administrations of W. Bush, Obama, and Biden. Trump dissuaded Putin from invading neighboring states because his leadership and foreign policies promoted deterrence and peace through strength. Putin saw in Trump a strong and decisive president who was prepared to use all tools of American power—peaceful and coercive—to defend U.S. interests. Similar to other U.S. adversaries, Putin also viewed Trump as unpredictable and unconventional. In light of Trump’s threat to destroy North Korea if it threatened U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific, Trump’s summits with North Korean leader Kim, moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, bombing Syria for using chemical weapons on civilians, dropping America’s largest bunker buster bomb on an isis redoubt in Afghanistan, imposing strong economic sanctions on China while keeping dialogue open with Beijing, Putin could not be sure how Trump would respond to Russian belligerence. ’This unpredictability played an important role’ during the Trump presidency in impeding hostile actions by U.S. adversaries. Trump also had a Russia policy that demonstrated American strength. For example, in 2018, after the Russian mercenary Wagner Group advanced on U.S. bases in Syria, they were met with immediate and decisive action when President Trump authorized punitive airstrikes against them. Those airstrikes set back Russia’s operations and influence in the region. Russia never retaliated against the United States over that attack—which reportedly killed hundreds of Russian mercenaries—’likely because Putin did not know how Trump would respond’. The Trump Administration strengthened Europe’s deterrence posture toward Russia by revitalizing the NATO alliance’to work for American interests by pushing NATO members to contribute fairly to the alliance and meet their NATO Article 3 and Wales Declaration defense spending targets’. By reforming NATO to return it to its original intent to serve as a collective security arrangement, the burden of Russian deterrence no longer fell solely on the United States. The Europeans were pressed to step up to defend their regional security and return to being effective allies. ’The Trump Administration imposed strong sanctions against the Nord Stream II Pipeline, built to transport Russian natural gas from Russia to Germany, to halt its completion. Trump officials also pressured European states to delink from the Russian energy supply, an effort that undermined Russia’s ability to weaponize energy in the region’—and one that Europe resisted until Russia invaded Ukraine. This included Trump publicly criticizing Germany for making itself dependent on Russian gas imports. At a July 2018 NATO summit, Trump condemned Germany’s support of the Nord Stream II pipeline, saying, “Germany, as far as I’m concerned, is captive to Russia because it’s getting so much of its energy from Russia.” Trump was even more critical of Germany for its dependency on Russian energy in his September 2018 speech to the U.N. General Assembly. “Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course,” the president said. “Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers.” It is ironic today to watch video of German diplomats in the General Assembly hall at the time laughing at Trump’s criticism. During the Trump Administration, the United States no longer tolerated Russia’s repeated nuclear treaty violations and ’withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty’. The Trump Administration ’also began the process of withdrawing from the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia’ in hopes of negotiating a stronger and more effective treaty „that also would include China’s nuclear arsenal”. On Ukraine, the Trump Administration promoted a strong deterrent approach by authorizing the first-ever lethal military aid package to Ukraine, equipping its armed forces with advanced Javelin anti-armor missiles, naval vessels, and Mark VI patrol boats. This was a major break from the Obama Administration, which agreed only to provide nonlethal military assistance despite passionate appeals by Ukrainian officials for U.S. arms to fight pro-Russian separatist rebels in the Donbas.[i] President Obama refused to send weapons to Ukraine because he feared it would provoke Putin. President Trump disagreed and ’sent weapons to Ukraine’ as a sign of American strength and support for a friendly state. „At the same time, Trump was open to cooperation with Russia and dialogue with Putin. Trump expressed respect for Putin as a world leader and did not demonize him in public statements. Trump’s political opponents criticized him for this, but Trump’s approach was no different from how multiple U.S. presidents dealt with Soviet leaders during the Cold War. This was a transactional approach to U.S.-Russia relations in which Trump used his experience as a dealmaker to find ways to coexist and lower tensions with Putin while standing firm on American security interests. Trump spoke with Putin many times during his presidency, including at least five times in person and over 17 phone calls”. ’President Biden’s poor leadership as commander in chief, a weak national security team and national security policies, combined with a complete misunderstanding of Russia, Putin, Ukraine’, and NATO, established conditions that led Putin to order the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and conduct an overt war of aggression in defiance of the United States and the international community. Biden began his presidency by portraying himself as an anti-Trump president who would reverse all of his predecessor’s policies. This meant reverting to naïve and failed foreign policies, mostly from the Obama Administration. Because of Biden’s intense dislike of Trump, he attempted to reverse even Trump’s successful policies and refused to give Trump credit for his foreign policy successes. And yet Biden’s foreign policies have been unserious and incoherent. Early in his administration, Biden designated climate change as the main threat to U.S. national security. Biden’s orders led to the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, an epic foreign policy disaster that did enormous damage to American credibility and global security. The president needlessly antagonized and alienated important U.S. allies, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, and resumed President Obama’s foolhardy efforts to appease Iran in the absurd hope of making it a U.S. partner for peace in the Middle East. Biden’s policy toward China has been weak and confusing. He did nothing to hold Beijing accountable for the origin and spread of the COVID-19 virus. He weakened the readiness of the U.S. armed services and military recruitment with ill-advised COVID vaccine mandates and by imposing diversity, equity, and inclusion indoctrination on personnel. ’Biden also has deliberately refused to secure America’s southern border, which has led to a huge influx of illegal migrants’. In May 2021, nine months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden Administration waived U.S. sanctions on the construction of the Russian Nord Stream II pipeline, a decision that garnered bipartisan opposition. Biden officials claimed at the time that the reason for this decision was to mend U.S. relations with Germany, which they alleged were strained over Trump Administration policies, such as challenging Germany’s reliance on Russian energy and its failure to meet its NATO defense spending contributions. Former Secretary of Defense Gates wrote in his 2014 memoir, Duty, “I think [Biden] has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades." Gates wrote those words six years before Biden assumed the Oval Office and was talking about his foreign policy competency when he was a younger man. Today, „Biden’s signs of mental decline, frequent erroneous foreign policy statements that his aides quickly walk back, and his amateurish senior national security officials have added to a global perception that this is the weakest and most incompetent U.S. administration on foreign policy” in history. Biden’s demonstrable lack of strategic skill increased the chances of Russia invading Ukraine by undermining the perception of American-led deterrence. More importantly, ’Biden’s foreign policy incompetence led to critical U.S. policy errors that needlessly antagonized Putin and emboldened him to order Russian troops to invade Ukraine’. ’Ukraine’s potential admission to NATO’ was a sensitive issue for Putin even before Biden took the oath of office in January 2021. Putin began to speak out against it after the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, which confirmed that ’NATO one day planned to admit Ukraine as a member’. „Putin has long argued that Ukraine could never leave Russia’s sphere of influence” by claiming Russians and Ukrainians are one people, denying that Ukrainians are a separate people, and opposing the idea of an independent Ukrainian state. During a one-on-one meeting with President W. Bush in 2008, Putin said, ’You have to understand, George. Ukraine is not even a country.’[i] During a visit to Kyiv in 2013, Putin said, ’God wanted the two countries to be together,’ and their union was based upon ’the authority of the Lord,’ unalterable by any earthly force.[ii] Putin underscored and highlighted this idea in a July 2021 essay, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” in which he argued „Ukraine could only be sovereign in partnership with Russia” and asserted that present-day Ukraine occupies historically Russian lands.[iii] During a February 2024 interview with Putin by journalist Carlson, Putin provided a long, nonsensical account of Russian and Ukrainian history in which he disputed Ukraine’s nationality and history and repeated his ridiculous claims that Russia invaded Ukraine in part to fight Nazism in the country.[iv] The Biden Administration’s approach to national security rejected Trump’s transactional approach to Russia, under which „Trump established a working relationship” with a U.S. adversary. Biden replaced the Trump approach with a liberal internationalist one that promoted Western values, human rights, and democracy. Contrary to the Trump Administration’s America First stance on national security, ’the Biden approach put the idealistic agendas of the global elite ahead’ of a working relationship with Russia. Biden was not interested in working with Putin. ’He wanted to lecture and isolate him’. ’Biden’s hostile policy toward Russia not only needlessly made it an enemy of the United States, but it also drove Russia into the arms of China’ and led to the development of a new Russia-China-Iran-North Korea axis. China and Russia hope to use this axis to challenge the current U.S.-led world order and the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Russia has used this axis to obtain attack drones from Iran and missiles and artillery shells from North Korea for its invasion forces in Ukraine. Biden’s approach ignored Putin’s fear of Ukraine moving closer to the West and joining NATO. Although Biden and his senior officials never explicitly called for Ukraine to join NATO, ’they dangled NATO membership before Ukraine’ and repeatedly said this decision was up to Ukraine. Biden further confused the situation by stating several times in 2021 that the United States and NATO would stand behind Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” statements that ’sounded like Biden offered Ukraine security guarantees’. ’In addition, during a June 2021 NATO Summit, NATO reaffirmed the commitment made at the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would one day become a member’. Given President Zelenskyy’s stepped-up campaign for NATO membership in 2021, ’these statements and gestures appeared to be more than implicit endorsements of Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership’ in the near future. Putin’s paranoia about Ukraine joining NATO grew in September 2021, when the Kremlin strongly objected to Ukraine joining joint military operations with NATO members and said the expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross a Russian “red line.”[v] In December 2021, as tensions grew and there were growing signs that Russia was planning to invade, „Putin presented a five-point ultimatum demanding legal guarantees that NATO would not admit new members, especially Ukraine” and Georgia. Putin also issued demands that would have undermined NATO, including giving up military activity in Eastern Europe. ’The Biden Administration rejected the ultimatum, threatened Russia with sanctions, and said America would respond decisively’ if Russia invaded Ukraine. Biden confused the situation further in a January 18, 2022 press conference when he said Russia will move in to Ukraine but that the United States and its allies might be divided on how to respond if a Russian invasion was a minor incursion. This gaffe shocked Ukrainian officials since ’it seemed to indicate Biden might tolerate Russia invading Ukrainian territory to some degree’. More importantly, the gaffe telegraphed to Putin Biden’s fear of escalation and lack of resolve just as he was about to order the invasion. As Russia prepared to invade Ukraine, the Biden Administration scolded Putin and threatened ’unprecedented’ sanctions. Instead of using negotiations to de-escalate tensions, Biden reiterated to Putin and Zelenskyy that NATO membership for Ukraine was still in Ukraine’s hands. The Biden Administration also declassified intelligence on Russia’s war planning in the misguided belief that it would somehow deter an invasion. As Russian tanks moved toward the Ukrainian border and an invasion appeared days away, Biden Administration officials stepped up their condemnations of Putin and threats of sanctions and isolation. An America First approach „could have prevented the invasion.” First, „it was in America’s best interests to maintain peace with Putin” and not provoke and alienate him with aggressive globalist human rights and pro-democracy campaigns or an effort to promote Ukrainian membership in NATO. „It made no sense even to allude to supporting eventual NATO membership for Ukraine”, as this would require a unanimous vote of NATO members, which at the time was highly unlikely. Ukraine also needed to meet stiff membership requirements, including democratic and military reforms that included aligning the Ukrainian military with NATO equipment. (At the June 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, ’NATO members pledged to admit Ukraine once they agreed conditions are met, and dropped the membership requirements’. This was understood to mean ’NATO would consider admitting Ukraine after the war ends’.) Second, „it was in America’s interest to make a deal with Putin on Ukraine” joining NATO, especially by January 2022 when there were signs that a Russian invasion was imminent. This was the time when the Biden Administration should have dropped its obsession with publicly criticizing Putin and worked toward a compromise. A U.S. offer to delay Ukraine’s admission into NATO for a decade might have been enough to convince Putin to call off the invasion, but Biden Administration officials refused to make such an offer. Third, ’the United States and its allies should have sent substantial lethal aid to Ukraine in the fall of 2021’ to deter a Russian invasion. Instead, as an invasion appeared likely in December 2021, Biden ignored urgent appeals from Zelenskyy for military aid—especially anti-tank Javelins and anti-air Stingers—and warned Putin that the United States would send lethal aid to Ukraine if Russia invaded. Biden’s message conveyed U.S. weakness to Putin, implying he could use military intimidation to manipulate U.S. policy toward Ukraine. Russia reportedly began its February 2022 assault against Ukraine with a plan of invading over a 10-day period, quickly taking Kyiv, and annexing the country by August. It didn’t turn out that way. Ukraine’s military learned from Russia’s 2014 invasions and was much better prepared. Ukraine’s army was well trained and had amassed billions of dollars in advanced weaponry from the West, including Javelin anti-tank missiles unblocked by President Trump that inflicted huge losses on Russian forces. Russia’s army performed poorly due to inadequate leadership and planning, deficient equipment, poor logistics, and ill-trained troops. The Russian military was also unprepared to defend against state-of-the-art advanced missiles and attack drones. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia ran out of steam by the fall of 2022 because the United States and its allies failed to provide the country with the weapons it needed to continue the fight to reclaim its territory. There were limits to how involved the United States could be involved in the conflict. „To this day, America lacks a defense treaty with Ukraine and it is not a NATO ally”. Intervening in the war in Ukraine lacked a clear, vital U.S. national interest. Moreover, there was a risk of nuclear escalation if NATO troops faced Russian forces in this conflict. This meant, as heinous as the Russian invasion was, ’the West, led by the United States, was unprepared for a response’. „Like other NATO leaders, Biden correctly kept U.S. troops out of the conflict directly”. Biden failed to recognize until it was too late, however, that it was in America’s interests and the interests of global security for the United States to do everything possible short of direct U.S. military involvement to help Ukraine. To promote American interests and values, ’President Biden should have provided Ukraine with the weapons’ it needed to expel Russian forces early in the war and used all forms of statecraft to end the war, including sanctions, diplomatic isolation of Russia, and, ultimately, negotiations. The main objective of military assistance to Ukraine, short of direct U.S. military involvement, was to prevent the precedent of an aggressor state seizing territory by force and defending the rules-based international order. It also was in America’s interests to ensure that Russia lost this war because, due to Putin’s decision to make Russia an aggressor state, a defeated and diminished Russia was the best outcome for U.S. and global security. Some believed this would prevent Russia from invading other states, including NATO members, after it conquered Ukraine. It also was likely that a devastated Russian military would allow the United States to direct its defenses against China, a far more serious threat to its national security. Biden was prepared to give up on Ukraine after the February 2022 invasion and offered to evacuate Zelenskyy from Kyiv. Zelenskyy rejected the offer, replying: ’The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.’ Although Russian forces seized a significant amount of Ukrainian territory in the first few weeks of the war and got close to Kyiv, they were pushed back over the following six months when the Ukrainian army seized the initiative. Bolstered by years of training and an arsenal of advanced weapons, the Ukrainians surprised the world by dealing devastating losses to the Russian army. By October 2022, Ukrainian counteroffensives had pushed Russia out of northern and central Ukraine. By November, they had recaptured 54 percent of the land Russia seized since the beginning of the war. This left Russia occupying an area of eastern Ukraine mostly comprised of the Donbas region plus Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014. The United States and other NATO members limited their military aid to Ukraine in 2022 out of fear of escalating the conflict. In the early phases of the war, the Biden Administration delayed the provision of Army Tactical Missiles (ATACMS), altered the range capability of High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) missiles to prevent long-range strikes, and denied Poland’s request to send MiG-29 fighter aircraft to Ukraine. As a result, Ukraine’s arsenal ran low by October 2022, which gave Russian forces a chance to regroup. Ukraine would never again reclaim a strategic advantage in the war and the conflict became a stalemate by late 2022. The Wall Street Journal discussed how the Ukraine War came to this outcome in a November ’2023’ article: A growing number of Ukraine’s backers in Europe and the U.S. say Kyiv likely would be in a stronger position today if the Biden Administration had more quickly delivered valuable equipment such as tanks, long-range rockets and jet fighters. Protracted debates about the armaments, which have been provided or are being prepared for delivery to Ukraine, meant Kyiv lost valuable time early this year when it could have pressed gains achieved against Russia late last year’.[i]’ There were hopes that a new influx of advanced weapons from the United States and NATO members would help Ukraine turn the tide of the war in a spring 2023 counteroffensive. It didn’t happen. Weapons arrived late and in insufficient numbers. For example, the Biden Administration failed to provide Ukraine with fighter aircraft and sent only 31 Abrams Tanks — equivalent to only a battalion. Ukraine also began to run out of 155 mm artillery shells by July 2023.[ii] Biden agreed in May 2023 to send F-16s to Ukraine. Not only were these fighters not available for the 2023 spring offensive, but as of this writing, they still have not arrived and are not expected to be deployed and combat-ready until mid-summer 2024 at the earliest. When the fighters arrive this summer, as few as six of the 45 planes promised will be delivered due to a lack of trained Ukrainian pilots, according to the New York Times.’[iii]’ Ukraine’s spring 2023 counteroffensive also failed because Russian forces had time to establish defenses in depth in eastern Ukraine that proved more formidable than Ukrainian officials had anticipated. ’As the Ukraine War shifted to a new phase of stalemate and attrition in late 2022, the Biden Administration continued to lack a coherent strategy to help Ukraine win the conflict or end it’. It provided greater numbers of advanced weapons but not enough to shift the war in Ukraine’s favor. ’There was no U.S. strategy to achieve a ceasefire or an end state for the conflict or to deal with the reality’ that Ukraine would likely lose a long-term war of attrition. The Biden Administration also spurned attempts to hold peace talks. President Biden ’instead demonized Putin’, often calling him a war criminal. In short, the Biden Administration began in late 2022 to use the Ukrainian military to fight a proxy war ’to promote U.S. policy goals’ of weakening the Putin regime at home and destroying its military. ’It was not a strategy, but a hope based on emotion’. It was not a plan for success. Biden’s repeated statements that he was prepared to send arms to Ukraine ’for as long as it takes’ without providing a strategy for Ukraine to win the war or a plan to end the conflict epitomized the real intention of his policy to use the conflict as a U.S. proxy war against Russia. Biden, throughout his tenure, attempted to define the ’as long as it takes’ approach by claiming the war was about standing up to a tyrant and defending and promoting global democracy.’[i]’ But Biden never explained how U.S. military support of Ukraine would accomplish his goals. The Biden Administration’s approach to Ukraine garnered criticism from many Americans who were hesitant about the direction of the war and the amount of military aid the U.S. has provided. (Source: (Center for American Security)
by Lieutenant General (Ret.) Keith Kellogg who was the national-security adviser to President Trump and Vice President Pence. He is currently the co-chairman of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute;
Fleitz, who was chief of staff of the National Security Council in the Trump administration and is a former CIA analyst. He is vice-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute.

(Continuation: 2024. IV. 11. United States II.)

[i] Shishkin, “Ukraine to Get More U.S. Aid, but Not Weapons,” Wall Street Journal, September 18, 2014.
[ii] Cogan, “You Have to Understand, George. Ukraine Is Not Even a Country,” Huffington Post, March 16, 2014. https://www.huffpost.com/entry...
[iii] TSnyder, “Putin’s rationale for Ukraine invasion gets the history wrong,” Washington Post, February 25, 2022.
[iv] “Contextualizing Putin's ‘On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,’" Harvard University Ukrainian Research Institute, August 2, 2021. https://huri.harvard.edu/news/...
[v] Carlson interview with Putin, X (formerly Twitter), February 8, 2024. https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/st...
[vi] “Kremlin says NATO expansion in Ukraine is a 'red line' for Putin,” Reuters, September 27, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/...
[vii] Marson and Michaels, “Ukraine War Slips Toward Violent Stalemate,” Wall Street Journal, November 12, 2023.
[viii] Bertrand, Liebermann and Hansler, “US and NATO grapple with critical ammo shortage for Ukraine,” CNN.com, July 18, 2023.
[ix] Lewis, “NATO Ally Gives Ukraine's F-16 Program Additional Boost,” Newsweek, January 5, 2024. https://www.newsweek.com/nato-...; Jakes, “Ukraine Could Deploy F-16s as Soon as July, but Only a Few,” New York Times, March 11, 2024.
[x] “Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine.” White House Briefing Room, March 26, 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/bri...
[xi] “Evaluating America First Priorities in the White House Supplemental.” Center for Homeland Security and Immigration & Center for American Security. America First Policy Institute, October 27, 2023. .https://americafirstpolicy.com...

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2024. IV. 11. United States. II. America First, Russia, & Ukraine: Research Report (Continuation)

2024.11.29. 18:45 Eleve

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America First, Russia, & Ukraine: Research Report: II.

’The U.S. has given Ukraine over $113 billion in roughly the first two years of conflict. In addition, Congress approved a $61 billion Ukraine aid package in April 2024 that included $52 billion in military assistance’ and $9 billion in economic assistance. National polls revealed the majority of the American public was opposed to sending more military aid to Ukraine amid the 2024 stalemate.[ii] ’The vast sum of support depleted U.S. military stockpiles, strained our defense industrial base, and jeopardized America’s military readiness. For example, since the beginning of the conflict, the U.S. has sent over 2,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.[iii] Yet at the current rate of production, it will take the United States 13 years to backfill and replenish this munition stockpile.[iv] The U.S. has also sent Ukraine more than 2 million 155mm artillery rounds, but the U.S. currently produces only 14,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition per month.[v] The Pentagon has noted that 14,000 rounds are often depleted by the Ukrainian army within 48 hours of direct fighting between Ukrainians and Russians.[vi] As a result, Pentagon officials announced in December 2023 that U.S. aid to Ukraine has drained the Department of Defense’s draw-down account to the extent that the U.S. will have to make tough ’choices,’ either supporting America’s own military readiness or ’continuing to support Ukraine in the way they need to be supported on the battlefield.’[vii] „Former President Trump proposed in February 2024 to add some accountability to the Biden Administration’s seemingly endless aid requests for Ukraine” by making these payments a no-interest loan that Ukraine would repay after the war. This idea attracted bipartisan support and is currently being seriously considered by White House and congressional leaders. ’Administration officials credit President Biden with successful leadership that provided Ukraine with the military assistance it needed to push back Russian forces. In their view, Biden helped save Ukraine by uniting and strengthening the NATO alliance’. The truth is that NATO members stepped up to help Ukraine because it was in their security interests. It had nothing to do with the Biden Administration’s diplomatic efforts. In many cases, such as when NATO members wanted to send F-16s and MiG fighters to Ukraine, Biden blocked or delayed those weapons. In other cases, European states provided weapons to Ukraine that the United States refused to send. Until October 2023, for example, the United States refused to send Kyiv a crucial long-range missile system, the ATACMS. Prior to that time, Ukraine had to rely on similar missiles from the French and British (SCALPs and Storm Shadows missiles).[viii] At the same time, the Biden Administration’s flawed approach to the Ukraine War has strained NATO’s defense industrial base so heavily that many are unable to backfill military equipment at the rate at which they are sending weapons to Ukraine. ’Admiral Bauer, chairman’ of NATO’s military committee, told the 2023 Warsaw Security Forum that the bottom of the barrel is now visible in terms of NATO allies’ military stockpiles.[ix] As a result, several of America’s European allies „have begun to prioritize their national defense” over sending military aid to Ukraine. For example, Poland has been a leading and consistent supplier of weapons to Ukraine, accounting for 17 percent of Ukraine’s total imports of major arms, artillery, and weapons systems in 2022.[x] This provision of military equipment to Ukraine, however, has depleted Poland’s military equipment stockpiles by approximately one-third and has challenged Poland’s ability to provide for both its own military and Ukraine’s military.[xi] Despite increasing its military expenditure budget from 3 percent to 4 percent of its GDP in 2023, Poland’s defense industrial base has faced challenges in backfilling its military stockpiles at the rate at which it is sending materials to Ukraine. As a result, Poland’s military aid to Ukraine has resulted in ’temporary gaps’ in the Polish military’s capacities. In 2022, Poland sent MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine before the country received its procurement order for FA-50 aircraft from South Korea for its own military.[xii] The war in Ukraine and Ukraine’s dependency on Western nations for military equipment has thus given rise to „Ukraine fatigue” among the Europeans, threatening ’to leave the United States, once again’, as the primary defense contributor to Europe and further straining America’s ability to maintain its own critical defense stockpiles. ’Biden’s preference for using the Ukraine conflict as a proxy war to hurt Russia’ rather than help Ukraine win the war is also why the United States has done nothing to promote a cease-fire or a peace agreement. In some cases, the United States and some of its European allies have blocked attempts to pause or end the war. „Under an America First approach to the Ukraine conflict, once it became a stalemate and a war of attrition, it was in the best interests of Ukraine, America, and the world to seek a ceasefire and negotiate a peace agreement with Russia”. Peace talks and a cease-fire to end the war are a complicated matter, obviously. The Ukrainian government understandably is resistant to any settlement that would reward Russian aggression and not restore all of its territory. Zelenskyy does not trust Putin to abide by a peace agreement or cease-fire. He signed a decree in October 2022 stating that ’Ukraine would refuse to negotiate with Putin’. Zelenskyy put forward a 10-point peace plan at a G-20 summit in November 2022. The plan’s call for restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and a Russian affirmation in accord with the U.N. Charter, withdrawal of Russian troops, and a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes were ambitious and just. Since there was no way to force Russia to agree to such terms, however, Zelenskyy’s plan went nowhere. ’The Biden Administration’s approach to negotiations has been devoid of strategy and presidential leadership’. Biden and his team have consistently opposed any cease-fire or peace agreement that does not include a complete Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory. Biden officials also have said they will not force Ukraine to agree to a peace agreement or join peace talks. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in April 2022 reportedly ’discouraged Zelenskyy from a possible cease-fire agreement’, although the Ukrainian leader might have backed out of the proposed agreement on his own. Russian officials claimed the United States was behind Johnson’s pressure to scuttle a peace agreement.[i] Biden Administration officials denied this. However, given its consistent opposition to a cease-fire and peace talks, we believe it is possible that Biden officials discouraged the Ukrainian government from striking a peace agreement with the Russians at the time. In November 2022, General Milley, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, voiced disagreement in internal administration meetings with the position of other Biden officials on Ukraine negotiating a settlement with Russia. Milley reportedly argued that the Ukrainian military had achieved as much as it could hope for at the time and urged Ukrainian officials to cement their gains in negotiations.[ii] The Biden Administration did not adopt Milley’s position. Secretary of State Blinken said in June 2023 that ’the United States would not support a cease-fire or peace talks until Kyiv gained strength so it could negotiate on its own terms. Blinken also claimed that giving in to pressure from Russia and China for negotiations would result in a false Potemkin peace.[iii] This remains the Biden Administration’s position’. In lieu of establishing direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, ’President Biden has eroded the diplomatic channels necessary to reach a negotiated end-state to the war’. Biden has repeatedly demonized Putin by calling him a war criminal and a dictator and even alluding to supporting regime change in Russia.[iv] After the deadly October 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, Biden likened Putin to Hamas.[v] Moreover, ’the president has yet to have a single phone call or meeting with Putin since the war began’. European states, especially France, have generally taken a position similar to Biden’s ’as long as it takes’ approach to arming Ukraine „but have been open to peace talks”. France, the UK, and Germany appeared to break somewhat with the Biden Administration in February 2023 when the Wall Street Journal reported these countries wanted to promote stronger ties between Ukraine and NATO to promote peace talks because of their growing doubts that Ukraine could expel Russia from Ukrainian territory and because Western support for Ukraine could not continue indefinitely.[vi] There was a break between the foreign policy establishment and the Biden Administration on Ukraine in 2023 when Council on Foreign Relations President Haass and Georgetown University Professor Kupchan argued in an April 2023 Foreign Affairs article that the West needs a new strategy to get from the battlefield to the negotiating table in the Ukraine War because “the most likely outcome of the conflict is not a complete Ukrainian victory but a bloody stalemate.” Their recommendation was for the Biden Administration to prioritize ending the Ukraine war by „pressing for a cease-fire and peace talks”.[vii] Haass reiterated this position on MSNBC’s Morning Joe program, reportedly a favorite show of President Biden, on November 21, 2023 when he said the war is unwinnable and called for Ukraine to change its strategy to protect and save the 80 percent of the territory it controls and pursue a cease-fire with Russia. The host, Scarborough, agreed with Haass’ assessment.[viii] The late Kissinger took a similar view in a spring 2023 interview with the Economist in which he said it was essential to end the war as soon as possible. A peace agreement, in Kissinger’s view, would require territorial concessions by both sides. Because this would result in instability that could spark new wars, he called for „a rapprochement between Europe and Russia” to secure Europe’s eastern border. Kissinger also changed his position in early 2023 ’to favor NATO membership for Ukraine’.[ix] There were some reports in late 2023 that positions were shifting on talks to end the war. Putin signaled to European officials last fall that he was open to a cease-fire along the current battle lines”. Politico reported in December 2023 that the Biden Administration and European officials were shifting their positions from total victory by Ukraine to improving its position in eventual peace talks to end the war. However, it appears the Biden Administration did not adopt this approach. Moreover, ’neither American nor Ukrainian officials showed interest in Putin’s alleged peace offer, and U.S. officials reportedly formally rejected Putin's suggestion of a ceasefire in mid-February 2024’.[x] Asked during a May 2023 CNN town hall whether he wanted Ukraine to win, President Trump answered, “I want everybody to stop dying. They’re dying. Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying.” Trump added: “I don’t think in terms of winning and losing. I think in terms of getting it settled so we can stop killing all those people.” When the former president was asked if he thought Putin was a war criminal, he replied, “This should be discussed later, and if you say he’s a war criminal, it’s going to be a lot harder to make a deal later to get this thing stopped.” In a February 17, 2024 tweet, national security expert and retired Army Colonel Schlichter observed: “Ukraine is not losing because America hasn’t given it enough shells. Ukraine is losing because there aren’t enough Ukrainians. And I’m on the side of the Ukrainians”. We agree with President Trump and Colonel Schlichter. „America needs a new approach and a comprehensive strategy for the Ukraine War”. According to Ukrainian intelligence, an estimated 400,000 Russian soldiers are currently deployed in Ukraine and control much of Ukraine’s eastern provinces of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson as well as Crimea.[ii] Russian forces have hardened their defenses along the 600-mile-long front line and have saturated an estimated 30 percent of Ukrainian territory with landmines.[iii] Schlichter is right about Ukraine facing a demographic crisis and running out of soldiers. ’About 200,000 Russian troops have been killed in the war, and 240,000 wounded. The Ukrainian army has suffered about 100,000 dead and up to 120,000 wounded’. But Ukraine’s population is much smaller than Russia’s. The population of Ukraine today is estimated at 36.7 million, a significant drop from its February 2022 population of 45 million. Many Ukrainians have fled the conflict. The total population of free Ukraine may be as low as 20 million. On the other hand, Russia’s population is 144 million.[iv] Reflecting these developments, CNN reported in November 2023 that training and recruiting Ukrainian troops had become a serious challenge, and the military was facing problems with enforcing mobilization rules.[v] On April 2, 2024, Zelenskyy signed a law to address the troop shortage by lowering the country’s minimum conscription age for men from 27 to 25. The Ukrainian leader also signed new laws do away with some draft exemptions and create an online registry for recruits.[vi] To add to these challenges, prospects for Ukraine’s army in 2024 are not promising. After failing to move the battlelines during its 2023 counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces appeared to be losing ground in early 2024 because of battle fatigue, arms shortages, and what appears to be a new Russian offensive strategy. ’Although the $61 billion aid package that Congress approved in April 2024 and military aid from the EU might help Ukraine maintain the current battlelines this year, it will do so at the cost of the lives of thousands more Ukrainian soldiers and billions of dollars of military aid’. There is little prospect that paying these high costs will allow Ukraine to regain its territory from Russia. Moreover, given the Ukrainian army’s manpower problems and the likelihood of growing opposition in the United States and Europe to providing huge amounts of military aid, the Ukrainian army probably will begin to lose ground over time. Objections to continuing U.S. logistical support for the Ukraine War are also driven by other factors. The war is drawing down America’s stockpile of advanced weapons, such as HIMARS missiles, that may be needed in other conflicts, especially if China invades Taiwan. „Many members of Congress believe the Biden Administration should place a higher priority on stopping the huge influx of illegal immigrants crossing the U.S. southern border, the fentanyl crisis plaguing American communities, and the deterioration of our military instead of spending tens of billions of dollars on weapons for the war in Ukraine”. A prolonged war in Ukraine also risks deepening the alliance between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, which has been strengthened by the conflict. Iran and North Korea continue to supply Russia with the weaponry it needs to wage this war, while China remains a financial partner to Russia to deepen the two nations’ “no limits” partnership. Many supporters of Biden’s ’as long as it takes’ approach on the right and left in the United States as well as in Europe contend it is crucial to continue to arm Ukraine because Putin’s invasion is a threat to global stability and democracy. Many claim other rogue states, such as Iran and China, will be emboldened by any outcome of the war that allows Russia to keep Ukrainian territory and does not hold Putin accountable. „The trouble with these arguments is that it is too late to avoid the possible consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sending weapons to an endless stalemate for these reasons is expensive virtue signaling and not a constructive policy to promote peace and global stability”. America First is not isolationist, nor is it a call to retreat America from engagement in the world. An America First approach to national security is, however, characteristically distinct from ’a foreign policy establishment that often keeps the United States mired in endless wars to the detriment of the country by putting idealistic principles ahead of the interests’ of the American people. „There is a pathway forward in Ukraine in which America can keep its own interests prioritized while also „playing a role in bringing the largest war in Europe since World War II to an end”. That role must be through decisive, America First leadership where „bold diplomacy paves the way to an end-state”. What we should not continue to do is to send arms to a stalemate” that Ukraine will eventually find difficult to win. This should start with a formal U.S. policy to bring the war to a conclusion. Specifically, it would mean a formal U.S. policy „to seek a cease-fire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict”. The United States ’would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses’ to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement. ’Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia”. To convince Putin to join peace talks, President Biden and other „NATO leaders should offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal” with security guarantees. In their April 2023 Foreign Affairs article, Haass and Kupchan proposed that in exchange for abiding by a cease-fire, a demilitarized zone, and participating in peace talks, Russia could be offered some limited sanctions relief. Ukraine would not be asked to relinquish the goal of regaining all its territory, but it would agree to use diplomacy, not force, with the understanding that this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office. Until that happens, the United States and its allies would pledge to only fully lift sanctions against Russia and normalize relations after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine. We also call for placing levies on Russian energy sales to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction. By enabling Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength while also communicating to Russia the consequences if it fails to abide by future peace talk conditions, the United States could implement a negotiated end-state with terms aligned with U.S. and Ukrainian interests. Part of this negotiated end-state should include provisions in which we establish a long-term security architecture for Ukraine’s defense that focuses on bilateral security defense. Including this in a Russia-Ukraine peace deal offers a path toward long-term peace in the region and a means of preventing future hostilities between the two nations. Regrettably, we see ’no prospect that the Biden Administration will do anything to end the Ukraine War and may implement policies to make the conflict worse’. Nevertheless, the above are a few creative ideas for an America First approach to end the war and allow Ukraine to rebuild. President Trump also has a strategy to end the war that he has not fully revealed. We are hopeful there will be a new president in January 2025 to implement these American First ideas to end this devastating conflict. The Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people will have trouble accepting a negotiated peace that does not give them back all of their territory or, at least for now, hold Russia responsible for the carnage it inflicted on Ukraine. Their supporters will also. But as Trump said at the CNN town hall in 2023, “I want everyone to stop dying.” That’s our view, too. It is a good first step. (Source: Center for American Security)
by Lieutenant General (Ret.) Keith Kellogg who was the national-security adviser to President Trump and Vice President Pence. He is currently the co-chairman of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute;
Fleitz, who was chief of staff of the National Security Council in the Trump administration and is a former CIA analyst. He is vice-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute.

[xii] Agiesta, “Majority of Americans oppose more aid for Ukraine in war with Russia,” August 4, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04...
[xiii] “U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine.” U.S. Department of State Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, December 27, 27, 2023. https://www.state.gov/u-s-secu...
[xiv] Lipton, “From Rockets to Ball Bearings, Pentagon Struggles to Feed War Machine.” The New York Times, March 24, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/0...
[xv] DeYoung, Lamothe and Khurshudyan, “Inside the monumental, stop-start effort to arm Ukraine,” Washington Post, December 23, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com...
[xvi] Ibid.
[xvii] Wehner, “Pentagon prepares to make ‘tough choices’ between U.S. readiness and Ukraine support as funding package lingers.” FoxNews.com, December 14, 2023. https://www.foxnews.com/politi...
[xviii] Rohac, “Biden’s Lack of Leadership Is Galvanizing US Critics of Ukraine Aid,” New York Post, October 5, 2023.
[xix] Landale, “Ukraine War: Western allies say they are running out of ammunition.” BBC News, October 3, 2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/world...
[xx] D. Wezeman, Gadon and T. Wezeman, “Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2022.” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 2023. https://www.sipri.org/publicat...
[xxi] Radford & Easton, “Poland no longer supplying weapons to Ukraine amid grain row.” BBC News, September 21, 2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/world...
[xxii] Gosselin-Malo and Adamowski, “Slovakia shift, elections in Poland dampen support for Ukraine,” Defense News, October 3, 2023. https://www.defensenews.com/gl...
[xxiii] Trofimov, “Did Ukraine Miss an Early Chance to Negotiate Peace With Russia?” Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2024.
[xxiv] Baker, “Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist,” New York Times, November 10, 2022.
[xxv] Blann and Lee, “Blinken warns Ukraine cease-fire now would result in ‘Potemkin peace,’ legitimizing Russian invasion,” Associated Press, June 2, 2023. https://apnews.com/article/rus...
[xxvi] “Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine.” White House Briefing Room, March 26, 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/bri...
[xxvii] Jackson, “Biden Compares Putin to Hamas as US Navy Takes Rare Action to Defend Israel,” Newsweek, October 19, 2023. https://www.newsweek.com/biden...
[xxviii] Pancevski and Norman, “NATO’s Biggest European Members Float Defense Pact With Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2023.
[xxix] Haass and Kupchan, “The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine,” Foreign Affairs, April 13, 2023.
[xxx] Video of this interview is available at https://twitter.com/i/status/1....
[xxxi] “ Kissinger explains how to avoid World War three,” The Economist, May 17, 2023.
[xxxii] Troianovski, Entous and Barnes, “Putin Quietly Signals He Is Open to a Cease-Fire in Ukraine,” New York Times, December 23, 2023; Faulconbridge and Korsunskaya, “Exclusive: Putin's suggestion of Ukraine ceasefire rejected by United States, sources say,” Reuters, February 13, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/...
[xxxiii] Schlichter tweet, February 17, 2024. https://x.com/KurtSchlichter/s...
[xxxiv] Shekina, “Ukrainian Intelligence discloses number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine.” RBC-Ukraine, October 23, 2023. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/new...
[xxxv] Klain. (2022, September 15). “Russia is Seeding Ukraine’s Soil with Land Mines.” Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022...
[xxxvi] Smart, “Analysis: Ukraine’s Impending Demographic Crisis,” Kyiv Post, December 24, 2023. https://www.kyivpost.com/analy...
[xxxvii] Kostenko, Tarasova-Markina, et al, “As the war grinds on, Ukraine needs more troops. Not everyone is ready to enlist,” CNN.com, November 19, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/19...
[xxxviii] Arhirova and Kullab, “Ukraine lowers its conscription age to 25 to replenish its beleaguered troops,” Associated Press, April 3, 2024. https://apnews.com/article/rus...
[xxxix] Haass and Kupchan, “The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine,” Foreign Affairs, April 13, 2023.

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2024. XI. 27. Germany, European Parliament, Belarus, Ukraine, China, Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, United States

2024.11.28. 00:45 Eleve

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Europe

Germany
November 27, 2024 
Germany’s engagement with the United States continues to show gross deficits. The first problem is the tendency to paint U.S. presidents in extremes - either as messianic figures (like Kennedy and Obama) or as cartoon villains (like W. Bush and Trump). This dichotomous perspective is not indicative of a mature society but an adolescent one. Even under a Harris administration, a more robust U.S. nuclear weapons policy, including equipping missiles with additional nuclear warheads, would have been likely. However, if the Project 2025 playbook provides any indication, under a Republican administration, the scale of nuclear buildup could be considerably more extensive. A second problem is the Germans’ selective perception of the United States. They often recognize only what they want to see or what can be viewed through a superimposed continental European perspective. When further filtered through a progressive lens, a double distortion of reality occurs. This makes it difficult to discern where the center of gravity lies in U.S. discourse. On nuclear arms control, for example, there is a bipartisan consensus to prepare for a three-way nuclear arms race with Russia and China. A third problem related to this is that American discourses are often recounted almost verbatim in Germany. However, German, European, and American interests and interpretations are not always congruent. A U.S. demand for investments in deterrence and toughness is not inherently more welcome than ’a U.S. demand for disarmament’ and dialogue - and vice versa. Germany must make its own assessment. Contacts with Republican politicians and conservative experts must be intensified, not only as a gesture of friendship but also as a necessity. This includes engaging with conservative foreign policy experts such as Colby, Costlow, Peters, and Kroenig, to name a few. Russia’s war against Ukraine marks a generational shift, and for the foreseeable future, the United States will not revert to traditional strands of conservative or liberal internationalism. Germany will have to deal with Trump in an age of instability and a looming nuclear arms race. This makes it even more necessary to engage with the Republican foreign policy and nuclear community to avoid unnecessary conflict and misunderstandings. The guiding principle should be the following: a world of unconstrained arms racing would be very expensive for all sides involved. And in the end, there is no such thing as victory in a nuclear war. Under a second Trump presidency, the United States 'might decide to expand its nuclear forces and infrastructure', primarily to counter China’s nuclear buildup. Trump’s former National Security Advisor O’Brien even advocated for resuming nuclear weapons tests, which would further challenge the test ban norm. The costs for U.S. nuclear forces were already estimated at approximately $750 billion until 2032 before the election - and could now increase further. A Republican majority in Congress could make it easier for Trump to pursue this path. (Source: The National Interest – U.S.)
by Dr. Fella, a Senior Researcher at the Berlin office of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH).

European Parliament
(27/11/2024)  Strasbourg
confirmed the new European Commission team of 26 commissioners led by Der Leyen with 370 votes in favor, 282 votes against, and 36 abstentions. (Source: DW - Germany, "AFP, dpa, Reuters")

Belarus
November 27, 2024 Belarusian companies
are secretly supplying Russia with advanced Western-made microchips, thereby sustaining the production of fighter jets, drones, and missiles used in the war against Ukraine. These firms exploit intricate logistics routes to circumvent restrictions, importing Western microchips and relabeling them before transferring them to Russian defense manufacturers via intermediaries in Europe or Asia. The flow of Western technology into Russia's military reveals weaknesses in global sanctions. 'Among the exported components are the U.S.-made Intel chips found in Russian Su-35S and Su-34 fighter jets, Kalibr cruise missiles, and Korsar drones'. 'Belarusian firm Alexsvit Ltd., shipped over 130 banned microchips to Russia between 2022 and 2023. Alexsvit’s revenue has tripled since the war began. 'Pervy Kontinent, established after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sold $155,000 worth of chips to Russian companies under U.S. and EU sanctions. 'Logisticheskaya Kompaniya Vostok, exported more than 215,000 microchips to Russia, including 1,500 U.S.-made components. The buyers include defense firms linked to Roskosmos and Kalashnikov, critical components of Russia’s military-industrial complex. Among the Russian buyers are defense contractors such as Baltelektron, sanctioned by the U.S. for supplying dual-use electronics to the Russian military. The company sourced components from three Belarusian firms - Chip Express, Chipimport, and Elektrosale. 'Belarusian firm SD Electro, supplied microchips for Su-30SM jets and Orion drones to Green-Chip, a Russian company tied to missile and nuclear system projects. 'The finding was made with the assistance of a group of Belarusian hackers known as CyberPartisans’. The findings spotlight systemic failures in sanctions enforcement and the ability of Belarus to act as a middleman for Russia’s war machine. (Source: The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) - a non-governmental organization and website)

Ukraine
Wednesday, November 27, 2024  Last month alone, Russian troops took almost 200 square miles in the Donetsk region. Just fifteen miles now separate the Russian forces from entering the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. If Russia succeeds, a sixth region will be swallowed by hostilities. Ukraine’s forces are thinning fast. The front line is collapsing and one of the main reasons is desertion, adding to crippling manpower shortages. Officially, some 90,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted - almost half of them this year -, but the unofficial number is much higher. Desertion is punishable by up to twelve years in prison. In August Ukraine passed a law forgiving soldiers who went AWOL for the first time as long as they agreed to come back. The law was intended to rescue the army’s plummeting numbers. But the lawmakers ignored the warnings from military commanders that such a law — unprecedented for a country at war - would thin the fighting lines where the battle was most intense. Ukraine is the first country to give deserters’ the option of leaving and then volunteering elsewhere - select a new brigade - under the new law. This has had a calamitous effect on discipline, essentially giving men permission to flee. Soldiers who have been fighting Russia for years without relief or rotation, often in positions that seem hopeless, saw it as their chance for immediate leave and a transfer to a more desirable brigade.“It is a step towards defeat,” said Kukharchuk, commander of the 2nd Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade. Thousands of soldiers have been on the front line for almost three years, while others have been fighting since Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbas ten years ago. Kyiv has so far failed to conscript enough people for the understaffed brigades, let alone provide troop rotations or retirement. Most 'rotations' are just transfers from one hotspot to another, from Pokrovsk to Chasiv Yar and back. Hnezdilov, 24, is now in custody and is likely to be given the full twelve-year sentence: He left the army last month after five years of service and announced his decision on social media. He demanded reforms to service terms and a fairer mobilization process when the only paths to demobilization are desertion, injury or death. Public desertion poses a far greater threat to the state than thousands that go unnoticed. The recruitment crisis led the Ukrainian parliament to lower the draft age from twenty-seven to twenty-five in April. Lowering the draft age seemed to treble the number of soldiers-in-training to 35,000 a month. But numbers have since fallen back to about 20,000. In the summer, all Ukrainian men aged between twenty-five and sixty were obliged to visit enlistment offices and update their military registration documents. Those who didn’t were placed on a wanted list. Last month the authorities kicked off a nationwide hunt for draft-evaders. Police raided restaurants, bars, comedy shows and concert venues across the country. On October 11, in Kyiv, thousands of fans leaving an Okean Elzy concert were met by enlistment officers, police and secret service agents and asked to produce their military registration documents. Those who resisted were arrested. Shouting ‘shame’ at any detention has become an automatic reflex for Ukrainians. There are still many ways to dodge the draft. Exemptions can be booked due to health or critical employment - or, in extreme cases, by buying fake disability certificates (up to $25,000). A cash pile worth $6 million was recently found in the home of a medical authority leader in the Khmelnytskyi region. Other tricks include marrying disabled women or divorcing to pose as the single father of a child. Kyiv plans to conscript 160,000 in the coming months, but even this will raise the manning of units only to 85 percent. Ukraine has already lost a quarter of its 40 million population either through deaths or people fleeing abroad. The UN predicts that Ukraine’s population may halve again to just 15 million within seventy-five years. Most men under twenty-five don’t have children yet and the war has meant three deaths for every birth. Russian forces are just four miles from Pokrovsk, once home to 60,000 people, a rail and road hub - the key to seizing the Donetsk region. Outnumbered and outgunned, Ukrainian soldiers are fortifying the streets, but without fresh reinforcements they won’t hold out for long. This will soon become an acute dilemma for Zelensky. He can’t afford to lose more of Ukraine’s land. His advisor said that Ukraine’s allies have been pressuring him to lower the draft age further still to eighteen. (Source: The Spectator World – United Kingdom)

Asia

China
07/11/2024 
China's military has undergone a sweeping anti-corruption purge since last year. China's Defense Minister Dong has been placed under investigation for corruption, British newspaper Financial Times reported today. Dong, a former navy commander, was appointed defense minister in December following the surprise removal of Li just seven months into the job. Li was later expelled from the Communist Party for offenses including suspected bribery. He has since not been seen in public. His predecessor, Wei, too, was kicked out from the party over alleged corruption. (Source: DW - Germany; "Reuters, AFP")

Israel
27.11.2024  The Israeli security cabinet
approved a cease-fire deal with Lebanon late yesterday to end a devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. “The Security Cabinet, this evening, in a 10-1 vote, approved the US proposal for a cease-fire arrangement in Lebanon,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement. “Israel appreciates the US contribution to the process and maintains its right to act against any threat to its security,” the statement added. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Lebanon
Nov 27, 2024, 9:43 AM Ceasefire officially starts
in Lebanon. The terms of the agreement are as follow:    Hezbollah and all other armed groups present on Lebanese territory will refrain from conducting any offensive actions against Israel. In return, Israel will not carry out any military offensive against targets in Lebanon, whether on land, in the air, or at sea. Both Israel and Lebanon recognize the importance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. These commitments do not waive Israel's and Lebanon's inherent right to self-defense. The Lebanese security forces and the Lebanese Army will be the only entities authorized to carry weapons or deploy troops in southern Lebanon. The sale, provision, or production of weapons and related material in Lebanon will be supervised by the Lebanese government. All unauthorized facilities related to the production of weapons and related materials will be dismantled. All non-compliant military infrastructure and positions will be dismantled, and all unauthorized weapons will be confiscated. A committee approved by both Israel and Lebanon will be established to oversee and assist in the implementation of these commitments. Israel and Lebanon will report any violations of these commitments to the committee and to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Lebanon will deploy official security forces and the Lebanese Army along all border crossing points and the defined line for the southern zone, as outlined in the deployment plan. Israel will gradually withdraw from the southern zone of the Blue Line within a period of up to 60 days. The United States will enhance indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to achieve an internationally recognized delineation of the land border.    Earlier today, US President Biden's advisor and special envoy, Hochstein, who was tasked with negotiating an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal, said that the truce between the two sides is permanent and will end hostilities. (Source: IRNA - Iran)

27 November 2024  The Israeli war on Lebanon has taken a heavy toll, with over 3,700 people killed since hostilities began in October 2023, and one million people displaced from areas where Hezbollah has a strong presence. The World Bank estimates economic losses and damage at $8.5 billion, and the road to recovery is expected to be long, with no clear answer on who will fund it. Hezbollah has also been severely impacted, with many of its leaders, including long-time head Nasrallah, killed and its infrastructure significantly damaged. The group's future post-war remains uncertain. Though weakened, as per US, Hezbollah has not been eradicated. Beyond being a militia, it is also a political party with a presence in Parliament and a social organisation with support among Shia Muslims. For months, critics of the group, particularly those outside its core support base, argued that Hezbollah had led the country into a war that was not in Lebanon's interest. While this truce might bring an end to Israel's war on the country, fear of a new internal conflict persists. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

November 27, 2024, 8:01 AM  A ceasefire has come into effect in Lebanon after more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. The deal, announced by Washington overnight, began at 4am local time and is designed to be a “permanent cessation of hostilities,” according to US President Biden. A joint statement with France outlined expectations for the agreement and is designed to guarantee a ceasefire on both sides. Here is the US-France statement in full: (Source: The National - United Arab Emirates)

(Wednesday), November 27, 2024  Israeli strikes late yesterday hit Lebanon’s three northern border crossings with Syria for first time, Lebanese Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport Hamieh says. The strikes came moments after US President Biden announced that a ceasefire would come into effect at 4:00 a.m. local time (0200 GMT) today to halt hostilities between Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and Israel. Hamieh said it was not immediately clear whether the roads had been cut off as a result of the strikes. Syrian state TV reported the Israeli strike hit the Arida and Dabousieh border crossings with Lebanon. Israeli raids on Lebanon’s eastern crossings in recent weeks had already sealed off those routes into Syria. It has previously stated that it targets what it says are Iran-linked sites in Syria as part of a broader campaign to curb the influence of Iran and its ally Hezbollah in the region. Separately, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said yesterday that it struck an Iranian-aligned militia weapons storage facility in Syria in response to an Iranian-aligned attack against US forces in the country on Monday. (Source: Business Recorder - Pakistan)

27/11/2024 - 06:34  A US-France-brokered ceasefire agreement to the 14-month conflict between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah came into power today morning, but Israel's vow to double down on its war in Gaza and focus on its main enemy, Iran, could soon challenge the deal's solidity. Some celebratory gunshots could be heard in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs. The ceasefire calls for an initial two-month halt to fighting and requires Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops are to return to their side of the border. Thousands of additional Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers would deploy in the south, and an international panel headed by the United States would monitor compliance. There appeared to be lingering disagreement over whether Israel would have the right to strike Hezbollah if it believed the militants had violated the agreement, something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted was part of the deal but which Lebanese and Hezbollah officials have rejected. Israel has said it will attack if Hezbollah breaks the agreement, and an Israeli military spokesman, in an Arabic-language X post in the first half-hour of the ceasefire, warned evacuated residents of southern Lebanon to not head home yet, saying the military remained deployed there. Any halt to the fighting in Lebanon is expected to reduce the likelihood of war between Israel and Iran. Netanyahu presented the ceasefire proposal to Cabinet ministers after a televised address in which he listed accomplishments against Israel’s enemies. He said a ceasefire with Hezbollah would further isolate Hamas in Gaza and allow Israel to focus on its main enemy, Iran. “If Hezbollah breaks the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack,” he said. “For every violation, we will attack with might.” Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed the ceasefire and described it as a crucial step toward stability and the return of displaced people. Hezbollah has said it accepts the proposal, but a senior official with the group said yesterday it had not seen the agreement in its final form. 'After reviewing the agreement signed by the enemy government, we will see if there is a match between what we stated and what was agreed upon by the Lebanese officials,' Qamati, deputy chair of Hezbollah’s political council, told. “We want an end to the aggression, of course, but not at the expense of the sovereignty of the state," he said. “Any violation of sovereignty is refused.” Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah is required to move its forces north of the Litani River, which in some places is about 30 kilometers north of the border. Even as ceasefire efforts gained momentum in recent days, Israel continued to strike what it called Hezbollah targets across Lebanon while the militants fired rockets, missiles and drones across the border. More than 3,760 people have been killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon the past 13 months, many of them civilians, according to Lebanese health officials. The bombardment has driven 1.2 million people from their homes. Israel says it has killed more than 2,000 Hezbollah members. Hezbollah fire has forced some 50,000 Israelis to evacuate in the country’s north, and its rockets have reached as far south in Israel as Tel Aviv. At least 75 people have been killed, more than half of them civilians. More than 50 Israeli soldiers have died in the ground offensive in Lebanon. (Source: France 24 - France / AP - U.S.)

Turkey
27.11.2024  The US revised its position on the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye after witnessing its progress with its domestically developed KAAN fighter jet, Turkish National Defense Minister Guler said addressing the Turkish Parliament's Planning and Budget Commission yesterday. Guler also highlighted Ankara’s efforts to modernize the Air Force until the light combat aircraft HURJET and KAAN are operational. He announced a $1.4 billion payment for 40 US F-16 Block 70 Viper jets, adding Türkiye will modernize its 79 older F-16s in Turkish Aerospace Industries facilities. On Eurofighter Typhoon jets, Guler noted that Germany has issued the necessary permissions and procurement discussions continue. The national defense minister said that Türkiye purchased Russia’s S-400 missile system in line with the country's needs after no other country with such systems responded positively to Ankara's requests. Guler confirmed that the S-400 systems are deployment-ready and operational within 12 hours if needed. Underlining that it is an air defense system, Guler said that Türkiye would only use it in case of a "very high level of danger." Regarding the latest status of the domestic air defense systems, he said not all of these systems have been completed. "SIPER 1 (long-range surface-to-air missile) was produced and entered the inventory with a range of 100 kilometers. Now, the second and third SIPERs will follow immediately," he said. "In order to provide air defense for our country, we will need not one but several Steel Domes, and these are already being produced," he added. /Photo/ (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

North America

United States
Wednesday 27 November 2024 17:13 GMT  'President Biden's administration is urging Ukraine to increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and allowing for the conscription of troops as young as 18'. Speaking to reporters, a senior Biden administration official said today that the outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 from the current age of 25 to help expand the pool of fighting age men available to help a badly outmanned Ukraine in its nearly three-year-old war with Russia. The official said 'the Ukrainians' believe they need about 160,000 additional troops, but the U.S. administration believes they probably will need more. The White House has pushed more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia's February 2022 invasion and expects to send billions more to Kyiv before Biden leaves office in less than months. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

November 27, 2024  What to expect from Trump II? Experience isn’t always a predictor of success for presidential administrations. From the standpoint of those of us who care about global peace and stability, who worry about whether the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East might spin out of control, Trump’s proposed team gives plenty of reasons for concern – but for reasons other than their lack of experience. Three principal schools of foreign policy are in the United States: neoconservatism, liberal interventionism and realism. Neoconservatives view military force and the threat of military force as the solution to nearly every problem. The conservative thinker Kirk once noted that neocons 'mistook Tel Aviv for the capital of the United States'. Liberal interventionists, by and large, are the people who staff the Biden administration. The policies they favor have become hard to distinguish from those that the neocons want – the big difference is that they pay lip service to multilateral institutions such as the UN and couch their militarism in the vocabulary of humanitarianism. Both neocons and liberal interventionists share what de Gaulle, once described as “the American Messianic impulse which swelled the American spirit and oriented it toward vast undertakings,” and America had developed, 'a taste for interventions in which the instinct for domination cloaked itself.” Yet such impulses are anathema to the 3rd school of American foreign policy, realism. The primary difference between realism and the first two schools is that realists are able to distinguish between core and peripheral interests. Realists are critical of wars of choice which they see as too often counterproductive and indeed immoral. They also understand the imperative of achieving a stable balance of power and recognize dangers of unipolarity. There is a widely held assumption that Trump’s America First has some relationship in connection with the realist school. It is also often and wrongly assumed that “America First” is simply an updated brand of isolationism that was popular in the US in the 1930s. There is no point in not being honest with you. Given the makeup of his incoming national security team, Trump’s American First seems more and more like a marketing ploy – employing the rhetoric of realists for the purpose of disguising, laundering, camouflaging what are essentially neoconservative policies. In other words, America First is just neoconservatism in realist drag. We should expect a good amount of continuity with the policies of the Biden administration.    On the war in Ukraine, Trump’s expectation that he and he alone will be able to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine smacks of unreality. Despite his oft-stated intention to end the war, it seems there is a real risk that he and his team might try to escalate it in an attempt to end it. After all it was he, in his first term, who sent Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, repeatedly sanctioned Russia, expelled Russian diplomats and appointed a hardline neocon as his Ukraine Envoy. Now a few from team Trump have criticized Biden’s recent decision to sent ATACM long range missiles to Ukraine, but honestly, given their past comments, the criticism smacks of partisan opportunism.    It would hard to imagine Trump doing a worse job than Biden did in the Middle East. But where will the blank check Trump will no doubt hand over to Bibi Netanyahu lead? It could very well lead to a direct war with Iran. And Israel’s neighbors seem to be readying for some kind of confrontation. In the year and a half since China brokered the historic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has accused Israel of genocide and forcefully condemned Netanyahu’s bombing of Lebanon. Only recently, the chief of the Egyptian armed forces met with his Turkish counterpart for talks on deepening military cooperation between the two nations. Turkey has also just announced it has severed all diplomatic ties with Israel. Trump’s soon to be national security adviser has been publicly calling for Israel to escalate its war on Iran. In October he suggested that Israel bomb Kharg Island, from where Iran ships 90 percent of its oil exports. Neoconservatives in Washington have been busy spreading pernicious propaganda - similar to the kind they spread in the run up to the 2003 Iraq War. A neoconservative operative at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recently published a report that accused Iran of developing a new kind of chemical weapon. “Iran,” says the report, 'now appears to have produced fentanyl-based' chemical weapon which they have allegedly provided to partners and proxy groups in Iraq and Syria. De Gaulle once wrote that “Deliberation is the function of many; action is the function of one.” Ultimately, it is up to Trump to decide whether to allow the neoconservatives to drag us into a war with Iran – a war which has the very real potential – to ignite a world war. I wish I had a happier scenario to present –  (Source: Antiwar)
By Carden, a columnist and former adviser to the US-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission at the U.S. Department of State.
Note: „Remarks at the Yerevan Dialogue on November 23. Reprinted with permission from the American Committee for US-Russia Accord (ACURA)”.

4 11 27 .17:54

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2024. XI. 26. Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, India, United States

2024.11.27. 00:37 Eleve

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Europe

Russia
November 26, 2024  Launching Oreshnik,
an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile without a nuclear warhead at an already thoroughly devastated Ukraine, served this purpose. The attack showed teeth without inflicting grave damage. Russia has shown that it has a weapon, previously unveiled, and was prepared to use it. The launch was a spectacular, if risky, experiment and success. The missile passed the combat conditions test, having reached its target destination of the Yuzhmash military production facility in Dnipro without interception. Encouragingly, the Russian–U.S. warning system proved to work: the Russian Nuclear Risk Reduction Centre issued a pre-notification signal to their American counterpart thirty minutes in advance so that the U.S. missile tracking system knew that such a launch was non-nuclear. An emboldened Putin warned that further test launches might follow, depending on how the West behaves, in an apparent reference to the calls by some European politicians to send their troops to Ukraine. These events have shown that the power transition in the United States is a most precarious period during which significant escalation is possible. It appears that the main safeguard against a major war is the presence of mind in Moscow rather than wisdom emanating from Washington. Is the art of defense diplomacy dead in the West? It is in high demand now. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Matveeva, a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at Russia Institute at King’s College London and the author of Through Times of Trouble (Lexington Books 2018)

26.11.2024  Russian lawmakers today submitted a draft bill to the country’s lower house of parliament on introducing a mechanism to suspend bans on the activities of terror groups in the case of a court decision initiated by the country’s prosecutor general or his deputy if there is data that a particular organization has ceased carrying out activities aimed at promoting, justifying, and supporting terrorism. Slutsky, the leader of Russia’s Liberal Democratic Party, told that the mechanism aims to ensure legal interaction between Russia and the Taliban. “Today's Afghanistan – whether someone likes it or not – is the Taliban. Therefore, we interact and will now interact on an absolutely legal basis,” Slutsky was further quoted as saying by the Russian state news agency Tass. Russia included the Taliban in its list of banned terrorist organizations back in 2003. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

26/11/2024 - 14:12  Russia today accused Ukraine of launching two more attacks on its territory in western Kursk region using US-supplied ATACMS missiles against Russian military installations and the Vostochny airfield on 23 November and 25 November, adding that it was preparing retaliatory actions. A strike on an air defence battery damaged a radar system and also caused casualties. It said three of the five missiles fired in the first strike were shot down, while seven of the eight used in the second were destroyed. Russian forces launched a record 188 drones at Ukraine overnight in an attack that disrupted energy supplies in the east of the country. Ukraine's air force said it had shot down 76 Russian drones in 17 regions, while another 95 were either lost from their radars or downed by electronic jamming defensive systems. In the relatively untouched western Ternopil region authorities said the drones had damaged a critical infrastructure facility, without elaborating. The attack had disrupted electricity supplies in the region. On the battlefield, Ukraine's fatigued troops are struggling to halt advances by Russian forces in the east of the country. Moscow's defence ministry said its units had "liberated" the settlement of Kopanky, a village near the Ukrainian-held city of Kupiansk. (Source: France 24 / AFP - France)

November 26, 2024, 6:00 AM  Ukraine and the West will soon find themselves negotiating with Russia to define the terms of a settlement. The West must have a negotiating strategy along four critical parameters: territories, security guarantees for Ukraine, reparations, and sanctions. U.S. Vice President-elect Vance has lobbied for a demilitarized zone along the current front lines and an enduring commitment to Ukraine’s neutrality. But the West is tired. Putin is not. Almost three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the West is no longer has the political will to help Ukraine win by military means and is seeking a settlement with the aggressor instead. Outgoing U.S. President Biden’s belated decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S. missiles to strike targets deep within Russian territory, a critical condition of Ukrainian President Zelensky’s ’victory plan,’ will trigger not only the wrath of Putin, but also that of Trump, who will undoubtedly view any escalation as a shot against his own prospects for dealmaking among strongmen. The most obvious settlement strategy, would likely involve buying Ukrainian and European security with territory - possibly including Donetsk; large chunks of the Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions; and the peninsula of Crimea. This outcome is a far cry from the Western leaders’ earlier commitments to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and hopes for regime change in Russia. "Trump is uninterested in leading the existential fight for democracy". 'Another option, therefore, may have Trump concede to Ukraine’s membership in a new NATO - one without the United States, perhaps - leaving Europeans to be the masters of their own security’. Europe would accept the occupation de facto, but it wouldn’t de jure recognize the territory as Russian land. ’Sanctions against Russia would remain for the time being’. ’Battered and curtailed but still sovereign, Ukraine would gain a nuclear umbrella against future Russian aggression, and Europe would fund the postwar reconstruction’. Putin is now reinforced by his perception that he is winning, even if it is taking longer than he hoped. Though he is a product of a socialist state, the Russian leader is a master of capitalism. In the last two years, not only did Russia fail to fold under the weight of Western sanctions, but it also managed to build parallel economic, financial, and cultural structures that are independent of the West. The economic and cultural mechanisms necessary for military production. are activated. It developed domestic production capabilities. Russia’s economy has been switched on to military footing, there is no shortage of munitions. Russia does not have a manpower crisis like Ukraine does - government payouts ensure an ample supply of volunteers to enlist in the military. Russia has reoriented itself toward the East, increasing trade with China, India, and other countries in Asia and the Middle East. Oil money - the main source of Russia’s war financing - keeps flowing, albeit from a different direction than before. Tankers shuttle Russian oil with payments cleared through offshore shell companies. Cross-border payments are now handled through SPFS, a homegrown alternative to the SWIFT global financial system, and the Mir payment system that replaced Visa and MasterCard. Russia touts these systems to its BRICS partners as alternatives to Western financial hegemony. Assets belonging to Western companies exiting Russia have been nationalized or bought for cheap and redistributed to businesses with ties to the Kremlin - one of the largest property transfers in Russia’s history. Cut off from Western banks, Russian oligarchs must invest their money. Cultural shifts in Russia increase Putin’s confidence in victory. What little dissent remained before the war has largely been rooted out, with Russians closing ranks around their leader. In September and October, more than two-thirds of Russians who said they want the war to end are against returning Russian-occupied territories to Ukraine. On the global stage, Russia has managed to upgrade its status to a leader of the anti-Western coalition. A Russian victory would embarrass the United States, weakening its influence in Asia and helping China. North Korea has found exports - bad shells and soldiers - that it can exchange for food, money, and energy. And Iran is happy to keep the United States distracted from the Middle East. The Putin that the West would face at the negotiating table is a former underdog - a man on a mission to free the world from what he has characterized as Western hegemony, his economy thriving, his new and old friends paying court, and his people unified behind him. Putin would be negotiating from the position of strength and with obligations to his domestic and international stakeholders in mind. Even if Putin wanted to end the war, it would entail serious risk for his regime. The sudden drop in government spending would create real prospects of an economic collapse. Around 1.5 million veterans would have to be pulled out of Ukraine to find new roles in a corrupt Russian society. Inflation is real, and the ruble is weakening. The BRICS countries are not rushing to replace SWIFT with the Russian alternative. In a country reacclimatized to grand-scale violence, the prospect of revolt becomes clear. ’Putin would have to start a new war not long after agreeing to settle for peace’. The support and adoration of the Russian masses can turn on its head overnight. Unless Putin is given precisely what he wants, he will not stop. The West, meanwhile, will be negotiating from a position of inherent weakness. Western leaders have signaled their readiness to consider cessation of a large chunk of Ukrainian territory. The status quo - an ongoing border squabble with conventional weapons - suits all but Ukraine and Europe, for which security deteriorates in direct proportion to Putin’s success. Of the options put forward for a negotiated solution, the only one that Putin would agree to is the one that gives him Ukraine’s capitulation. He will never agree to a thriving, independent, armed, and Western-aligned Ukraine on his border. Putin will therefore demand an unviable Ukraine - without an army and without NATO membership - and, in effect, a Western surrender. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
by Edel, a Russian-born American writer and social historian. She is the author of Russia: Putin’s Playground, a concise guide to Russian history, politics, and culture She teaches history at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at University of California, Berkeley

Ukraine
November 26, 2024 2:00 pm CET  The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has been actively investigating claims that domestically produced 120 mm mortar shells have been malfunctioning on the war front for the last three weeks, the ministry said in a statement today. One in 10 Ukrainian-made 120 mm shells from the latest supply batch explodes on the front lines, Ukrainian journalists reported earlier this month. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

26/11/2024 - 12:30  What drives some Latin Americans, especially Colombians, to join the conflict in Ukraine? And why do their experiences sometimes turn into a nightmare? /Video/ (Source: France 24)

United Kingdom
26 November 2024 11:29am GMT  Prince of Wales fires sniper rifle and machine gun. Heir to the throne joins 1st Battalion on Salisbury Plain for training exercise despite only being expected to watch demonstration. “He seemed to really like it." Prince William has completed his own military training, joining Sandhurst after graduating university in 2005 for a 44-week course as an Officer Cadet. Commissioned as a British Army officer in December 2006, he joined the Household Cavalry, Blues and Royals, as a second lieutenant and was promoted to lieutenant a year later. In 2008, he served in attachments to the Royal Air Force (RAF) and the Royal Navy, including training in piloting helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, shore training and navigation. He later worked as a search and rescue pilot, first at RAF Valley in Anglesey and then with the East Anglian Air Ambulance. /Video/ (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)

Asia

India
Nov 26, 2024 12:11 PM IST  As Trump comes back to power, the vision will be to build on the progress made during his previous term and the Biden administration, cementing India as a cornerstone of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Trump’s 100-day challenge includes tackling inflation and manufacturing demands, which would require a balance between tariffs, job creation, and immigration reform and the problems on the border. During his first term between 2017-2021, Trump centered his campaign on “build the wall”, while this time, he touched on 16 million undocumented immigrants in the country and blamed the Biden-Harris campaign for what he described as dereliction of securing the southern border. For Trump, managing immigration - both legal and illegal - will be a complex, costly, and politically charged challenge. A Trump administration will likely continue policies aimed at curbing illegal immigration, but the issue is intertwined with legal immigration concerns. H-1B visas have been the central focus for the Indian tech and white-collar workers in the United States, especially in the STEM line of work. STEM graduates are crucial for U.S. industries, particularly since a skilled workforce is needed to meet demands in technology and innovation and high-end manufacturing, particularly chip design. Approximately 70% of H-1Bs are granted to Indian citizens. For decades, the technology industry has provided the U.S. with a global competitive edge, and Silicon Valley continues to epitomize that hub for innovation. The Indian tech worker plays a vital part in the United States’ tech economy, as the brightest minds seek American institutions for cutting-edge STEM education and then go on to build robust tech start-ups hence the very economic and innovative strength of Silicon Valley is tied to the Indian tech worker. However, Trump’s position on limiting immigration means there could be challenges for the H-1B worker. Unless illegal immigration is addressed effectively, the Trump administration may find it difficult to balance public sentiment with the economic need for a skilled workforce. His administration will have to navigate a delicate balance between tightening borders and ensuring that the U.S. workforce remains globally competitive, especially as China seeks to close the economic gap. Trump’s economic strategy might include a continuation of tariffs and a push to re-shore manufacturing jobs. American companies will likely adopt a “China-plus-one” strategy, where they maintain access to the Chinese market while diversifying operations to other countries like India. This strategy aligns with the example set by Apple, whose multiple vendors have invested nearly $5 billion in manufacturing across the states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. This has led the tech giant to reportedly assemble $14 billion worth of iPhones in India in 2024 - double the previous year’s production. Along with Australia, and Japan, the United States, and India share a vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. The Quad is a formidable nearly $35 trillion coalition of four democracies – US, India, Japan, and Australia, that is reshaping the economic landscape in the region. China’s ambitions in the Asia-Pacific and its goal of becoming a dominant global power accentuate the role of the Quad in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad can serve as a vital framework instead of bilateral trade deals to bolster economic engagement between the four democracies. With its growing industrial capabilities, India could serve as an alternative supply chain base for American companies, allowing them to reduce their reliance on China. This pivot also aligns with India’s interests as it seeks to establish itself as a manufacturing hub and build on resilient supply chains. Tesla in India, would not just boost e-mobility and work for India’s climate goals, but be a vital factor in India’s chip manufacturing capabilities, that autonomous vehicles rely on. (Source: Hindustan Times - India)
by Aghi, the President and CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF).

26 Nov, 2024 05:22 AM  Outdated digital map. Three men die after Google Maps directs driver off incomplete Indian bridge. /Photo/ (Source: New Zealand Herald)

North America

United States
26 November 2024 3:26pm GMT  Biden entered office operating under the misapprehension that America was a spent force. His efforts to preserve Ukrainian sovereignty amid Russia’s war of naked territorial expansionism were hamstrung by his dim view of America’s capabilities. Biden’s “timid” national security team “bought into this notion that, well, if we give them too much, then Russia’s going to use a tactical nuke on us,” House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman McCaul observed in April. It was because the Biden White House lost faith in the deterrent power of the West’s nuclear and non-nuclear assets that the President seemed paralysed by the prospect of Russian escalation. There are in Trump’s orbit who appear to be similarly convinced that the United States is a declining power that must triage its priorities. Colby, Trump’s former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, is often one of those voices. He has maintained that it is nothing short of a “delusion” to presume that the US can compete against Russia and China simultaneously. Thus, preventing Ukraine from being swallowed up by Russia is a “distraction” from what should be the foremost task: containing Chinese expansionism. “To be blunt,” he and his co-author wrote, “Taiwan is more important than Ukraine”. “The Gaza conflict has forced the US to refocus on the Middle East after years of redirecting diplomatic and military resources to counter a rising China” – he wrote on social media: “Distraction is also a choice, not just ‘forced’”. The article he cited to justify his observation also noted that one of the Iran-backed terrorist groups at war with Israel – the Yemeni Houthis – has embarked on a successful campaign of maritime terrorism against shipping interests in the Gulf of Aden, to say nothing of US Navy assets. The erosion of US hegemony on the high seas, forcing commercial interests to shadow Russian and Chinese vessels as they transit into the Suez Canal, is hardly a “distraction”. Only if we conclude that the obligations of the world’s sole superpower and the guarantor of the global marketplace are the “distraction” does any of this make sense. Given the conditions Biden’s inconstancy brought about, it’s hard to see how the Trump administration can pursue its desire to see the Russian-Ukrainean conflict resolved absent a negotiated cease-fire. At best, that process will hand Moscow another “frozen conflict” – one that it will thaw out at its leisure. In the meantime, the Kremlin will engineer a series of crises along the line of contact, just as it did when the Minsk frameworks were operative. Shorn of its industrial eastern oblasts, Ukraine will struggle to rebuild itself and reconstitute its forces, contributing to the anxiety of Nato members on the frontier with living memories of Russian domination. If those allies conclude that Washington’s collective security guarantees aren’t worth much and Ukraine comes to look like a failed state, those nations may take their security into their own hands – introducing far more complexity, instability, and prospects for conflagration into the mix. How this dynamic results in a more secure America, only the advocates of retrenchment seem to grasp. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)
by Rothman

November 26, 2024  “For if they do these things when the wood is green, what will happen when it is dry?” Widespread poverty and economic precarity have become defining characteristics of our impoverished democracy: more than two of every five of us are poor or low-income, and three in five are living paycheck-to-paycheck without affordable healthcare, decent homes, or quality education. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 report Poverty in the United States: 2023, 41% of this country’s population has a household income either under the poverty threshold or just above it, precariously living one emergency away from financial ruin. That translates into approximately 137 million people who are struggling every day to make it through without falling even further behind. Those tens of millions of people include a disproportionate percentage of people of color, including 56.5% of Black people (23.4 million), 61.4% of Latino people (40.2 million), 55.8% of Indigenous people (1.4 million), and 38% of Asian people (8.5 million). They also include nearly one-third of white people, 60 million, and nearly half (49%) of all children in the United States. Such rates are slightly higher for women (42.6%) than for men (39.8%), including 44.6% for elderly women. When tallied up, these numbers mirror pre-pandemic conditions in 2018 and 2019, during which poverty and low-income rates stood at about 40%, impacting 140 million people in every county, state, and region of the country. In other words, in this sick reality of ours, poverty is clearly anything but a marginal experience - and yet, as in the last election, it’s repeatedly minimalized and dismissed in our nation’s politics. In the process, the daily lives of nearly one-third of the electorate are discounted, because among that vast impoverished population, there are approximately 80 million eligible voters described by political strategists as among the most significant blocs of voters to win over. Case in point: In 2020 and 2021, there was a significant dip in the overall number of people who were poor or low-income. Covid pandemic programs that offered financial help also expanded access to health care, food stamps, free school meals, and unemployment insurance, while monthly support from the Child Tax Credit lifted over 20 million people out of poverty and insecurity while increasing protection from evictions and foreclosures. Such programs made millions of people more economically secure than they had been in years. Nonetheless, instead of extending and improving them and potentially gaining the trust of millions of poor and low-income voters, all of these anti-poverty policies were ended by early 2023. By 2024, not only had the gains against poverty been swiftly erased, but more than 25 million people had been kicked off Medicaid, including millions in battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Rather than speaking to such economic crises or pledging to address such pervasive insecurity, over the course of the election season, the Democrats emphasized a rising GDP, a strong job market, and important infrastructure investments made in recent years - macro-economic issues that had little effect on the material well-being of the majority of Americans, especially those struggling with the rising cost of living. For instance, pre-election polling among Latino voters showed that three-quarters (78%) of them had experienced an increase in food and basic living expenses; two-thirds (68%) emphasized the high costs of rent and housing; and nearly three in five (57%) said that their wages weren’t high enough to meet their cost of living and/or they had to take second jobs to make ends meet. When you consider the grim final results of election 2024, such realities - and the decision of the Democrats to functionally disregard poor and low-income voters - should be taken into account. In that same time period, the Biden administration approved an $895 billion budget for war and another $95 billion in additional aid to Ukraine and Israel. (Source: CounterPunch - U.S.)
by Theoharis, a theologian, ordained minister, and anti-poverty activist. Co-chair of the Poor People’s Campaign: A National Call for Moral Revival and director of the Kairos Center for Religions, Rights and Social Justice at Union Theological Seminary in New York City. She is the author of Always With Us? What Jesus Really Said About the Poor and We Cry Justice: Reading the Bible with the Poor People’s Campaign;
Gupta Barnes, the Policy Director of the Kairos Center for Rights, Religions and Social Justice and the Poor People’s Campaign: A National Call for Moral Revival. She has a background in law, economics, and human rights and has spent nearly 20 years working with and for poor and dispossessed communities.

.4 11 26 23:47

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2024. XI. 25. Germany, Romania, Russia, China, India, Lebanon, United States, NATO, globalization

2024.11.26. 23:31 Eleve

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Europe

Germany
Mon 25 Nov 2024 16.46 CET 
'Germany is drawing up a list of bunkers that could provide emergency shelter for civilians, the interior ministry has said. The list would include underground train stations and car parks as well as state buildings and private properties, a ministry spokesperson said. A digital directory of bunkers and emergency shelters will be drawn up so people can find them quickly using a planned phone app. People would also be encouraged to create protective shelters in their homes by converting basements and garages. The spokesperson declined to give a timetable, saying it was a big project that would take some time, involving the Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance and other authorities. Down from about 2,000 bunkers previously, the country of 84 million people has 579 bunkers, mostly from the second world war and the cold war era, which can provide shelter for 480,000 people. The key points of the plan were agreed at a conference of senior officials in June and a special group was looking into it'. In October, German intelligence chiefs warned that Russia would probably be capable of launching an attack on the Nato military alliance by 2030. (Source: The Guardian - United Kingdom / Agence France-Presse – France)

Romania
(Monday), 25 November 2024 10:59 PM CET  Romanian religious and nationalistic Georgescu won a shock first-round victory in the country’s presidential elections. Another ’hard-right’ candidate, Simion, trailed in fourth with 13.86 percent support. Georgescu won with 22.94 percent of the vote, followed by liberal reformist candidate Lasconi on 19.18 percent in second place, after she edged ahead of center-left Minister Marcel Ciolacu on 19.15 percent — a difference of just over 2,700 votes. Turnout across the country and among the Romanian diaspora was 52.5 percent, slightly above the 51.2 percent who voted in the previous presidential election in 2019. The second round is set for Dec. 8 following Romania’s parliamentary election next Sunday. Ciolacu announced his resignation today afternoon. An early exit poll suggested that Ciolacu and Lasconi were set to qualify for the presidential runoff. Georgescu surged into the lead as vote counting continued yesteray night, heralding a result that is set to upend Romanian politics. He campaigned on reducing Romania’s reliance on imports, supporting farmers, and increasing domestic production of food and energy. “The 35-years-long economic uncertainty imposed on the Romanian people became uncertainty for the political parties today,” Georgescu said in his first reaction. He has also argued that the EU and NATO do not properly represent Romanian interests. In 2022, Georgescu claimed that the U.S. anti-missile shield located in the southern Romanian village of Deveselu is part of a confrontation policy and not a peaceful measure. He said at the time that he had no support from Russia but felt close to its culture. He described Putin as “a man who loves his country.” Georgescu claimed Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Romanian neighbor, is manipulated by American military companies. Georgescu also said he admired Hungary because it knows how to negotiate internationally. He is a university professor and international consultant on sustainable development, who worked for different United Nations organizations for more than a dozen years. He leveraged TikTok to rally voters around him. He managed to convince them by a combination of messianic speech, delivered in an elegant way, so as to capitalize on people’s frustrations, said political analyst Magdin. Georgescu has drawn fierce criticism for his previous comments supporting Romania’s 20th-century fascist Legionary Movement, but rejected accusations that he is antisemitic. Over the past decade, Georgescu was rumored several times as a potential prime minister for different parties, including Simion’s AUR. (Source: Politico – U.S.)

Russia
(25 November 2024)  Ukraine's military said it had struck a key oil depot, - Kaluganefteprodukt oil depot in Kaluga region southeast of Moscow - with drones.and targets in the Bryansk and Kursk border regions. Eight drones in total were destroyed. Russian military bloggers, said that the Khalino air base in Kursk region had been struck in an attack by eight US-supplied Atacms missiles. Russia's defence ministry said only that it had shot down eight ballistic missiles from Ukraine, without saying where. Russian forces have also been hitting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Russia has made close to 1,500 strikes on Ukraine since yesterday evening on about half of the country's regions causing dozens of injuries, President Zelensky said. In a missile strike on the city of Kharkiv, an S-400 missile was used. In Odesa a missile attack damaged residential buildings, schools and a university sports hall. Strikes were reported on Kherson, Zaporizhzhya and Chernihiv regions. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Asia

China
25.11.2024 
China today blasted plans of the US to set up military bases and deploy missile units in Japan and the Philippines in the event of a Taiwan contingency. Beijing firmly opposes countries using the Taiwan issue as a pretext to increase military deployments in the region, which only stirs up tensions, fosters confrontation, and undermines regional peace and stability, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao told. She was responding to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko's statement that the US is "using the island of Taiwan to stir crisis in Asia, violating the one-China principle and strengthening military-political contacts with the island of Taiwan under the excuse of maintaining the 'status quo' and increasing arms supplies." The new temporary US bases are said to be established along the southwestern Nansei Islands chain, where the US Marine Littoral Regiment will be deployed, stretching from the Kagoshima and Okinawa provinces in Japan toward Taiwan. The Japan Self-Defense Forces are expected to mainly engage in logistical support for the marine unit, including supplying fuel and ammunition. The US Army will also deploy long-range fire units of its Multi-Domain Task Force, which is designed to operate in a multi-domain environment, including air, land, water, space, cyber, and information, in the Philippines. According to the plans, Tokyo and Washington will incorporate the new deployments in their first joint operation plan, scheduled to be formulated next month. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

India
Nov 25, 2024 12:57 pm  Apple
is doubling down on its efforts to move component manufacturing from China to India, as part of a strategy to avoid Trump's Chinese tariffs. The company has already been in talks with some Indian firms, including Dixon and Amber. The move comes as part of Apple's larger strategy to diversify its supply chain. By January 2024, Apple suppliers had reportedly invested $16 billion in their diversification efforts, benefiting countries like Vietnam in addition to India. The idea is to find potential suppliers who could locally source components. The shift has also made Apple one of the fastest-growing technology companies in India over the last few decades, cementing its place in the market. (Source: NewsBytes - India)

Lebanon
(Monday, 25 November 2024)  A military statement late yesterday said the Air Force had struck 12 Hizbollah command centres in south Beirut, including from intelligence, missile and weapons smuggling units. The Israeli military said Iran-backed Hizbollah fired around 250 projectiles into Israel during the day. Hizbollah said it launched attacks using missiles and drones directed at the Ashdod naval base in southern Israel. The conflict has killed at least 3,754 people in Lebanon since October 2023, according to the health ministry, most of them since September. On the Israeli side, authorities say at least 82 soldiers and 47 civilians have been killed. The official National News Agency (NNA) reported two waves of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, which were preceded by Israeli military warnings posted online. Ground battles raged in several areas of the border strip on Sunday, according to the NNA and Hizbollah, which said its fighters had destroyed six Israeli tanks and fired rockets at troops. (Source: Gulf Today - United Arab Emirates / AFP - France)

North America

United States
November 25, 2024   US President-elect Trump pledged a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada from his first day in office, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, citing illegal immigration and the trade of illicit drugs. /Video/ (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
16 383 views

NATO

11/25/2024  'Speaking at an event of the European Policy Centre think tank, the chair of NATO's military committee, Dutch Admiral Bauer today urged businesses to be prepared for a wartime scenario’ and adjust their production and distribchution lines accordingly, in order to be less vulnerable to blackmail from countries such as Russia and China, because ’while it may be the military who wins battles, it's the economies that win wars.’ Bauer noted western dependencies on supplies from China, with 60% of all rare earth materials produced and 90% processed there. He said chemical ingredients for sedatives, antibiotics, anti-inflammatories and low blood pressure medicines were also coming from China. (Source: MSN – U.S. / Reuters – United Kingdom)

 Globalization

25/11/2024 - 08:34  The Group of Seven (G7) ministers are meeting near Rome, Italy today, for two days of talks to discuss the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea, notably efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. The ministers will also discuss the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas’s military chief, “and the possible effects on the current crises in Lebanon and Gaza. The officials meet regional counterparts on the Middle East, before turning to Russia and the war in Ukraine. They will also discuss ways to continue support for Kyiv, prospects for peace and initiatives for Ukraine's future reconstruction. US Secretary of State Blinken will attend the talks in Fiuggi and Anagni alongside ministers from Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Japan, hosted by Italy’s Tajani. Monday afternoon will be dedicated to the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea. One session will include ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, as well as the secretary general of the Arab League, Rome said. On the second day of talks tomorrow, the discussion will turn to Ukraine in the presence of foreign minister Sybiga. The same day in Brussels, ambassadors from NATO countries and Ukraine will hold talks over Russia’s firing of an experimental hypersonic intermediate-range missile. Tensions in the Asia-Pacific are also on the agenda at the G7 meeting, and the Italians have invited foreign ministers from South Korea, India, Indonesia and the Philippines. The G7 ministers are also expected to discuss crises in Haiti, Sudan, the political situation in Venezuela. (Source: France 24 / AFP - France)

4 11 25 .23:50

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2024. XI. 25. II. Globalization, space

2024.11.25. 23:23 Eleve

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Globalization

(25 November 2024) The 2024  G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro on 18-19 November 2024 was hosted by the Brazilian G20 presidency. The G20 consists of 19 countries, the African Union and the EU. The G20 countries together account for more than 80 % of the world’s GDP, 75 % of global trade and two thirds of the world’s population. The G20 Summit represents the conclusion of the work carried out by the country holding the group’s rotating presidency, with a leaders’ declaration adopted at the end of the summit. In 2023, the G20 decided to grant permanent member status to the African Union. The meeting - an intergovernmental forum for international economic cooperation between the world’s leading economies - was overshadowed by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which entered its 1 000th day, the escalating conflict in the Middle East, and the election to a second term of President Trump, whose ‘America First’ approach to foreign policy includes threats to impose tariffs on imports. The G20 leaders adopted a declaration addressing pressing global issues, including combating hunger, reforming international institutions, and climate change. Brazil took over the annual G20 presidency from India on 1 December 2023. The presidency provided an opportunity to show Brazil as a promoter of the Global South to tackle global challenges. Under the theme ‘Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet’, the Brazilian government established three G20 priorities: The fight against hunger, poverty and inequality; The three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, social and environmental); The reform of global governance. The G20 leaders committed to a series of actions and goals in a 85 paragraph-long leaders’ declaration. The poor, to be placed at the centre of the international agenda. was symbolised by the initiatives for a two per cent tax on the world’s billionaires for climate action and poverty relief. Leaders agreed for the first time to engage cooperatively to ensure that ultra-high-net-worth individuals are effectively taxed. And a Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty. was created with 148 founding members, among them 82 countries, the African Union, the EU and international organisations to rach 500 million people with cash transfer programmes in low- and lower-middle-income countries by 2030. Michel, President of the European Council, and Der Leyen, President of the European Commission, represented the EU. In his speech, Michel stressed that the world needs a robust and effective multilateral system more than ever. He recalled that trade was a powerful tool to fight poverty and called for reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including the dispute resolution mechanism. Der Leyen stressed, among other things, that the EU fully supports the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty and that the EU is committed to making the fight against poverty a priority for ‘domestic policies’.  Key leaders from both sides were there regarding talks on the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, but, instead, resistance might grow, with French President Macron reiterating that France would not sign the agreement as it stands. Following his bilateral meeting with Argentine President Milei, Macron reported that Milei was not satisfied with the deal either. The G20 summit took place while the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) was being held in Baku, Azerbaijan (from 11 to 22 November 2024). The leaders’ declaration does not go beyond the G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration. It remains unclear from which sources the scaling-up of climate finance from billions to trillions should come. Transitioning away from fossil fuels, to which all nations agreed last year at COP28 in Dubai, did not find its way into the text. Compared to previous declarations, in particular the G20 Bali leaders’ declaration, the declaration issued on 19 November refers to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in the weakest possible terms. The document does not even mention Russia, but highlights the human suffering and negative added impacts of the war with regard to global food and energy security, supply chains, macro-financial stability, inflation and growth. Leaders welcomed all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace. Russian President Putin did not attend the summit, and was represented by Foreign Minister Lavrov. Ukraine’s President, Zelenskyy, was not invited to attend the meeting. On the escalating conflict in the Middle East, G20 leaders expressed their deep concern about the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the escalation in Lebanon. Leaders called for a comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza. However, the declaration does not contain a condemnation of Hamas nor a call for the release of all hostages. Leaders affirmed the Palestinian right to self-determination and reiterated their commitment to the vision of the two-state solution. On 1 December 2024, South Africa, another key state from the Global South and the third BRICS country in a row, takes over the G20 baton with a strong focus on Africa’s development in alignment with the African Union’s Agenda 2063. The G20 system would need to become a decision-making body rather than just an advisory one; the G20’s representativeness needs to be further improved; and the G20 organisation needs to be consolidated and professionalised, including having a permanent secretariat. (Source: European Parliamentary Research Service – Headquartes Brussels)
See also: G20 Rio de Janeiro Leaders’ Declaration (Source: European Council)

Space

25.11.2024  China today launched two commercial microwave mapping satellites - Siwei Gaojing-2 03 and Siwei Gaojing-2 04 - into space at 7:39 a.m. (23:39GMT, Sunday) from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwestern China, to enhance capabilities of optical, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) integrated services. They are owned by China Siwei Surveying and Mapping Technology Co., Ltd and equipped with high-precision radar payloads, providing the world with advanced all-day, all-weather and high-resolution radar images. Meanwhile, debris from the recently launched Long March-7 Y9 carrier rocket fell back to Earth late yesterday night, “with the vast majority of the remnants burning up during the reentry process,” according to the China Manned Space Agency. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

4 11 25 .23:21

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Címkék: brazil space dubai russia india china france earth africa turkey ukraine gaza argentine palestine lebanon europeanunion unitednations unitedstates europeanparliament europeancommission southafrica globalization azerbaijan worldtradeorganization europeancouncil

2024. XI. 24. France, Germany, United Kingdom, Israel, United States

2024.11.25. 23:03 Eleve

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Europe

France
(24 November 2024) 
France's Foreign Minister Barrot told the BBC that Ukraine can shoot French longer-range missiles into Russia in the ’logics of self-defense.’ Both France and the UK have supplied Ukraine with long-range Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles.The French Scalp missiles are the same as the UK's Storm Shadow missiles, which Ukraine had already used in attacks on Russia. He did not, however, reveal whether Ukraine had already used French-provided longer-range weapons on Russian targets. 'Barrot did not definitively rule out the deployment of French troops in Ukrainian combat zones'. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova tolt state media that Barrot's comments are "not support for Ukraine, but rather a death knell for Ukraine.’ Although some Western countries back the use of longer-range weapons by Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly shied away from sending longer-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, due to fears of escalation and lack of support for such a move among the German population. Taurus missiles have a maximum range of 500 kilometers. (Source: DW – Germany; „Reuters, AFP, AP, dpa)”)

Germany
24 November 2024 ((20:40))  German football club Borussia Dortmund members
have voted against a controversial sponsorship deal with arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. In May Dortmund signed a three-year sponsorship deal worth between €7 and €9 million per year. Of 855 participating members, 556 backed a motion at the general assembly to end the partnership as soon as possible and at the latest when the three-year deal expired. The identity of Rheinmetall as a leading player in the arms manufacturing industry has been seen as controversial among sections of Borussia Dortmund's 200,000 members and wider fanbase. (Source: DW - Germany)

United Kingdom
10:14, Sun, Nov 24, 2024  A spokesperson for US Air Forces in Europe said: “​We can confirm that small unmanned aerial systems (UASs) were spotted in the vicinity of and over RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Feltwell between Nov 20​ and 22. The number of UASs fluctuated and they ranged in size/configuration. “The UASs were actively monitored and installation leaders determined that none of the incursions impacted base residents or critical infrastructure. “To protect operational security, we do not discuss our specific force protection measures but retain the right to protect the installation. We continue to monitor our airspace and are working with host-nation authorities and mission partners to ensure the safety of base personnel, facilities and assets.” (Source: Express - United Kingdom)

Asia

Israel
November 24, 2024 at 1:00 a.m. EST  War fatigue
deepens in Israel as deaths mount and fighting expands. Historically, the country has maintained a small standing army, relying on reservists to fill out its ranks during a series of short-lived wars. But the Hamas-led rampage across southern Israel, in which about 1,200 people were killed and some 250 taken hostage, thrust Israel into the longest conflict in its history. In the early months of the war, about 350,000 Israelis were called up, a staggering figure in a country of less than 10 million. More than 800 soldiers have been killed since Oct. 7. Some 80,000 Israeli reservists are planning to leave, or have already left, families, jobs and studies to serve on the front lines of Israel’s grinding wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Increasingly, some are choosing not to report for duty, putting further strain on an overextended military amid an ever-widening regional war. Shoshani, a spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, said in a briefing last week that the army’s enlistment numbers are down by about 15 percent since the period after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, when hundreds of thousands of Israelis from all walks of life reported to fight, many without being summoned. The country’s universal draft requires most Jewish men to serve for roughly three years and Jewish women for two. Members of the Arab minority, including Bedouin and Druze citizens, also enlist. The growing and politically influential ultra-Orthodox community is largely exempt. The Supreme Court ruled this year that ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students must be conscripted into the military, threatening Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fragile right-wing political coalition. The military, facing a possible shortage of troops, is planning to extend mandatory service in the standing army and increase the maximum age for reservists. Many soldiers are already at their breaking point. “Wherever you look - the economic crisis, the toll on the reservists and their families, and of course the dead and the wounded - Israeli society is definitely at the edge of its capacity,” said Talshir, a political analyst at Hebrew University. Soldiers swap stories of partners threatening divorce and of bosses - many reservists themselves - running low on patience. Many women are struggling as single parents, cutting back their work hours to meet child-care needs, as productivity plummets across the board. Israel’s economic growth fell to 2 percent last year and is expected to shrink to 1.5 percent in 2024, said Bental, chair of the economics policy program at the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel. Before the war, an average of 3,200 workers were absent from work each month for reserve duty, usually for only part of a week, according to a study by the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem. Between October and December last year, the average figure was around 130,000 per month, with most workers fully absent. Small businesses are shuttering, start-ups are losing capital, and potentially successful companies are thinking about relocating. “There’s burnout,” said Moskowitz, a freelance business consultant and reservist. The father of four young kids has spent more than 250 days on the front lines, at one point overlapping with his brother in Gaza. Moskowitz lost clients after he was called up, and said government assistance programs have been inadequate. Still, “being involved was more important than being at home,” he concluded. “We are the country,” said Moskowitz. “If we don’t show up, there’s no country.” For many Israelis, the mounting social, economic and human costs of the wars only add to the urgency of achieving their objectives: the defeat of Hamas in Gaza, the release of the more than 100 hostages still held there, and the return of 60,000 Israelis forced from their homes in the north. (Source: The Washington Post – U.S.)
by Rubin

24 Nov 2024  Israel has approved a resolution to cut ties with the Israeli news outlet Haaretz and ban government funding bodies from communicating or placing advertisements with the newspaper. The government said its decision was due to many articles that have hurt the legitimacy of the state of Israel and its right to self-defence, and particularly the remarks made in London by Haaretz publisher Schocken that support terrorism and call for imposing sanctions on the government, the left-leaning news outlet Haaretz reported today. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved the decision. Many view Haaretz as the only newspaper in Israel because, especially in this war, almost all the media outlets totally recruited themselves to the narrative of the government and the army, and did not show Israelis what was happening in Gaza, Haaretz columnist Levy said. The government’s dispute with the organisation intensified last month at a conference in London, where publisher Schocken said Netanyahu’s government did not care about imposing a cruel apartheid regime on the Palestinian population. Communications Minister Karhi, who proposed the sanctioning of the news outlet, launched a renewed campaign against Haaretz, calling for a boycott of the newspaper. Last year, Karhi approached the Israeli cabinet secretary with a draft resolution to halt all subscriptions to Haaretz by state employees, including the army. (Source: Al Jazeera)

North America

United States
November 24 2024  Kennedy - who is President-elect Trump's choice to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) - has long spoken out against ingredients that he says hurt Americans' health. Leading up to the election, he offered several ideas for tackling chronic diseases under his slogan “Make America Healthy Again”. Kennedy has frequently advocated for eliminating ultra-processed foods - products altered to include added fats, starches and sugars, like frozen pizzas, crisps and sugary breakfast cereals, that are linked to health problems like cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. He has taken aim primarily at school lunches, telling Fox News: “We have a generation of kids who are swimming around in a toxic soup right now.' Part of Kennedy's new mandate will include overseeing the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which has over 18,000 employees. The agency is in charge of ensuring the safety of pharmaceuticals and the US food supply. The 70-year-old has pledged to fire employees he says are part of a 'corrupt system'. “There are entire departments, like the nutrition department at the FDA … that have to go, that are not doing their job,' Kennedy told this month. He has also pushed for getting rid of food dyes, including Red No. 3, and other additives banned in other countries. The former Democrat has also singled out more controversial health issues, including fluoride in drinking water, which he says should be banned altogether, and raw milk, which he believes has health benefits despite the increased risk of bacterial contamination. He’s also come after seed oils, writing on social media that Americans are being “unknowingly poisoned” by products like canola and sunflower oil that are used in fast foods. Several public health experts stand behind Kennedy’s goal to tackle ultra-processed food. Kennedy’s aim to get rid of certain food additives and dyes also could be beneficial. Several food dyes, including Red No. 3 should also be blocked by the US government because of concerns about carcinogens. But public health experts and former officials said a number of Kennedy’s goals were not worthwhile - and in some cases, harmful. What the evidence says? Drinking raw milk that has not been pasteurized - a process that helps kill bacteria - can make people sick or even kill them, research has found. Kennedy’s proposal to remove fluoride from drinking water also could be problematic, because fluoride levels are controlled by states. Fluoride, in the low levels found in water, has been proven to improve dental health. And his claim that seed oils are helping drive the obesity epidemic is not based in science. They seem like important products to the extent that they substitute for saturated fats such as butter. Food reforms, while long part of the public health conversation, could also simply be unrealistic both politically and bureaucratically. You will encounter industry opposition at every turn. The industry is used to limited oversight from both Democrats and Republicans while many of Kennedy’s goals would involve even more rulemaking. Several food industry groups met with lawmakers before Kennedy’s appointment this month to lobby against him last month. The Food Industry Association, which represents food retailers, producers and manufacturers, like General Mills, said it looked forward to working with Trump’s team to 'ensure food and drug policy continues to be grounded in science, to reduce regulatory complexity'. Kennedy could take on ultra-processed foods by altering the US Dietary Guidelines, which set nutritional standards for the industry and federal government programmes, including school lunches and military meals. They have an enormous impact on the food industry, that would make a big difference. The guidelines are updated every five years by the US Department of Agriculture and DHHS, which has previously said there is not enough evidence against ultra-processed foods. The FDA does not have authority over the catch-all of ultra-processed foods. Both the US Department of Agriculture and the FDA regulate the food industry. The FDA does not make the rules - it carries out policies passed by Congress and works to limit unhealthy foods by enforcing limits and labelling on certain nutrients, like sodium and saturated fat. Kennedy will also face industry backlash for proposals to ban pesticides and genetically modified organisms commonly used by American farmers. The industry complaints about Kennedy’s agenda do not come as a surprise. The goal of the health movement is “prioritising the wellness of America over corporate profits”, said Hutt, a spokesperson for the Make America Healthy Again political action committee, which is urging Republican lawmakers to confirm Kennedy. “Even if the idea of banning ultra-processed food is not possible politically, it's a conversation that we need to have,” he said. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

Nov 24, 2024 11:15 IST  Kolkata-born Bhattacharya emerges as Trump's top pick to lead US health agency. He is now the presumptive favourite to be selected by President-elect Trump as the next director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Washington Post reported yesterday. The Stanford-trained physician and economist met with Kennedy Jr, Trump's pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), this week and impressed him with his ideas to overhaul NIH, the report said. The HHS, the United States' top health agency oversees NIH and other health agencies Bhattacharya has called for shifting the NIH’'s focus toward funding more innovative research and reducing the influence of some of its longest-serving career officials, the report added. (Source: India Today)

.4 11 24 22:46

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Címkék: russia india france germany europe asia israel ukraine gaza unitedkingdom palestine lebanon unitedstates northamerica

2024. XI. 23. Germany, Romania, Russia, North Korea, Canada, United States, NATO

2024.11.24. 22:38 Eleve

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Europe

Germany
23 November 2024  European Parliament President
Metsola has voiced her anxiety about the upcoming German snap elections. ’Far-right’ AfD and ’left-wing’ anti-migrant Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) gain in opinion polls. AfD is expected to achieve historic results in the 2025 German election which are expected to take place on February 23. Recent opinion polls show the AfD with between 17% to 19% support ahead of next year's elections, with the BSW possibly getting as much as 8% of the vote. What happens in Germany in the next four years has a major impact on the next four years of the European Union, Metsola said in comments to the Funke Media Group, a major publisher of German newspapers. The AfD came in first place in elections in the eastern German state of Thuringia on September 1 with 32.8% of the vote and came in second place in the eastern state of Saxony in elections on the same day. The BSW will likely become part of Saxony's coalition government. Later in September, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), came out on top with 30.9% of the vote during the Brandenburg state election, but the AfD still had a strong second place showing at 29.2%. Metsola, a native of Malta, was elected as the European parliament president in January 2022. She has steadfastly supported Ukraine since Russia's invasion began in February. She belongs to the EU's center-right Christian Democratic EPP group. ’She called on pro-European and pro-Ukraine parties in Germany’ to stand together on important future issues. Anger over inflation, migration and lack of housing are some of the reasons why German voters are turning to populist parties. Voters who disagree with German arms deliveries to Ukraine have also been drawn to the AfD and BSW, which are critical of Western military aid to Kyiv. 'Metsola pushes for German Taurus deliveries'. She also implored the German government to take a decisive stance on European affairs. In the interview, Metsola was asked if she supports the German government delivering Taurus missiles which have a range of up to 500 kilometers to Ukraine. ’Yes, that is also the position of the European Parliament. There is broad support for this demand’, she said. The leader of Germany's conservative opposition Christian Democratic Union, 'Merz, has supported giving Taurus missiles to Ukraine'. Merz has a chance of becoming Germany's next chancellor, as the CDU leads most opinion polls before the February vote. The current coalition government is helmed by SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who opposes Taurus deliveries to Ukraine due to fears of escalating tensions with Russia. His coalition partners, 'the environmentalist Green Party, back the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine'. Metsola noted that a U-turn on weapons by the German government could occur before the February 2025 election. Her comments come after US President Biden has greenlit the use of longer-range missiles by Ukraine. After the announcement, Ukraine fired the weapons known as ATACMS into Russia, with Russian President Putin then authorizing a new type of intermediate-range missile be used on Ukrainian soil in response. (Source: DW; „Material from German news agency DPA” – Germany)

Romania
November 23, 2024 08:32 GMT  It's election season In Romania.
The first round is on November 24, and, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the ballots, the top two vote-getters for president will square off on December 8. In between, Romania holds parliamentary elections on December 1. The outgoing Iohannis, ends his second term and a decade in office. More than a dozen candidates are running to replace him. Romania is faced with two important realities next year: The threat of further instability and conflict in the region and globally, especially in the context of a [President-elect] Trump White House and the risks of deepening economic and financial crisis, according to Popescu-Zamfir, director of the GlobalFocus Center, a Bucharest-based think tank. Domestic concerns dominate. Romania is currently running one of the highest twin budget deficits and inflation rates in the EU. The cost of commodities has continued to increase while government expenditure has stayed high „largely because of the bloated state apparatus," she told. The economy and corruption seem to top the list of what most voters feel strongly about. Voters care about the cost of living, bringing down inflation, and the budget deficit, which are among the highest in the EU, Popescu-Zamfir said. They also care about fiscal predictability and avoiding potentially very strict austerity measures. Romania has been rocked by high inflation in recent years. In 2022, the rate was 13.8 percent, and in 2023 the figure dropped to 10.4 percent. In 2024, the rate, so far, is just over 5 percent, a bigger drop but still among the highest- and at least in August the highest - in the EU. Corruption, either in the public or the private sphere, has long plagued Romania. 'In the state-run health sector, bribery to either see a doctor or receive treatment is still widely alleged at hospitals and clinics' across the country, despite some progress in limiting the practice. Voters are also apprehensive about foreign affairs. The threat of regional instability and war is also a source of concern. Voters care about candidates' positions on Ukraine, Russia, Trump, the extent of their Euro-Atlantic orientation, said Popescu-Zamfir, adding that voters were also focused on the presidential candidates' "ability to lead the country in case of escalating tensions with Russia." Though lacking an executive role, Romania's president has significant decision-making powers, including on matters of national security and foreign policy. Elected for a five-year term, the president can also reject party nominees for prime minister and government nominees for judicial appointments. Romania has become a key ally of Ukraine, providing training and military equipment, including a Patriot missile defense system, amd playing a role in transporting Ukrainian grain and other agricultural goods to global markets. For NATO, Romania is an ally on its eastern flank. The alliance is building its biggest military base there. The Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base on the Black Sea is a hub for NATO operations in Eastern Europe. During the three-hour televised presidential debate on November 18, nearly all the candidates said Ukraine would need to cede territory to Russian President Putin to end the conflict. "It's obvious that Ukraine doesn't have resources to get back all the lost territory. Crimea is almost impossible to get back, and Donbas is already Russianized," said Geoana, a former NATO deputy secretary-general, who is running as an independent. Geoana also argued Ukraine should keep its sovereignty and its Western orientation if it gives up land. Lasconi from the center-right Save Romania Union was the only presidential candidate who opposed the idea of Ukraine giving up land, saying doing so would embolden Russian President Putin. Of the five most serious challengers, Lasconi is most bullish on NATO, calling for the military alliance to have a greater presence in Romania. Simion, leader of the far-right, ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), said, if elected, he would tell Trump that it's time for peace but he should consider allowing Ukraine to join NATO. He is criticized by some rivals as being pro-Russian and anti-EU -- who has offered that Romania remain in NATO but be neutral. Noticeably absence from the presidential debate were Romanian Prime Minister and Social Democratic Party leader Marcel Ciolacu and the former center-right Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca, who leads the Romanian Senate and has been part of a governing coalition with Ciolacu's party. Polling shows Ciolacu is the front-runner among the top five of the 13 overall presidential candidates, despite the fact he has faced accusations of lying about links to a fraudulent real estate company, even triggering calls for him to resign. In a possible runoff vote, Ciolacu could face Simion, a matchup, Popescu-Zamfir suggested, that the Social Democrats prefer. Romania's current prime minister, Marcel Ciolacu, is the presidential front-runner. The Social Democrats are counting on clearing the way for Simion to make it to the second round rather than any of the other contenders, hoping that people will then flock to the voting stations to oppose a victory by the leader of the far-right AUR, Popescu-Zamfir said. For many Romanians, Simion's victory would be a guaranteed turn toward anti-Western, pro-Russian, autocratic, socially conservative governing style, narrowing the space for civil rights, and freedoms, she added." Ciolacu's Social Democratic Party is also expected to outperform other parties in the December 1 parliamentary elections and will likely have the first crack at forming a new cabinet, noted analyst Anghel on X. The analyst said Bucharest will be seeking cooperation with the Trump administration while staying the course on support for Ukraine as much as possible. Whatever the outcome, Romania is poised mostly for political continuity, a tightening of the belt in fiscal and economic terms to fix the deficit and inflation, Popescu-Zamfir said. (Source: Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty – U.S.)
by Wesolowsky, a senior correspondent for RFE/RL in Prague, covering Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, and Central Europe, as well as energy issues.

Russia
23/11/2024 - 22:45  A source, who is on Ukraine's General Staff, said Russia had deployed some 59,000 troops to the Kursk region. With the thrust into Kursk, Kyiv aimed to stem Russian attacks in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, force Russia to pull back forces gradually advancing in the east and give Kyiv extra leverage in any future peace negotiations. President Zelenskiy said he believed for Russian President Putin is very important to demonstrate that he is in control of the situation in the Kursk region by January 20. Moscow, which occupies about a fifth of Ukraine, has not confirmed or denied the presence of North Korean forces in Kursk region. The Ukraine's General Staff source said the Kurakhove region was the most threatening for Kyiv now as Russian forces were advancing there and had managed to break through in some areas. The town of Kurakhove is a stepping stone towards the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region. Russia has about 575,000 troops fighting in Ukraine now, the source said, and aims to increase its forces to around 690,000. Russia does not disclose numbers involved in its fighting. (Source: France 24 - France / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Nov 23, 2024 at 3:13 PM EST  A senior Ukrainian military source who is on the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine told Reuters in an article published today that Ukraine has lost more than 40 percent of the territory that it seized in its surprise attack in the Kursk region late this summer. 'At most, we controlled about 1,376 square kilometres, now of course this territory is smaller. The enemy is increasing its counterattacks,' said the unnamed source, who added: 'Now we control approximately 800 square kilometres. We will hold this territory for as long as is militarily appropriate.' (Source: Newsweek - U.S.)

23 November 2024  Russia's President Putin today signed a law that allows debt forgiveness for new recruits signing up to fight in Ukraine, government announced. The new legislation allows those signing up for a one-year contract to have their bad debts of up to 10 million roubles (€92,000, $95,835), written off. The law -  approved by parliament earlier this month -  will be applicable to potential recruits who have had debt collection proceedings initiated against them before December 1. Those who have already been enlisted would not be eligible for the new measure to attract manpower. Russia has managed to bolster its ranks by offering increasingly large payouts, in some cases of many times the average salary, to those willing to fight in Ukraine. The measures have meant another general mobilization has been avoided. (Source: DW – Germany / „(Reuters; AFP")

(23 November 2024)  Now, travelers from the occupied regions to Odesa must journey through Russia and then Belarus and have to return via the European Union. All the checkpoints to Crimea, and to the self-declared "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk are closed. The last border crossing between Ukraine and Russia, in the Sumy region, closed in August because of fighting in the nearby Kursk region. The two-day bus journey through Russia and Belarus cost €300 ($310). A single open border crossing from Belarus allows Ukrainians in Russian-occupied areas access to the rest of Ukraine at the northwestern border with Belarus, through the crossing between the villages of Mokrany and Domanove. The travelers had to walk the final 2 kilometers. People are given entry certificates once they arrive. From the volunteers, they also receive a one-off cash assistance, provided by the Norwegian Refugee Council, and a starter pack from a cellphone provider. When they arrived, they would be taken to an emergency shelter run by a church. There, they would be fed, and assisted in buying train or bus tickets for their onward journeys. Those who wouldn't traveling until the following day could stay the night. The journey continues after the travelers cross into Ukrainian-controlled territory. There are often hundreds of kilometers more to their families and friends. Most people who come this way don't have the passports or money they would need to enter the European Union. The occupation authorities are seizing unoccupied houses and apartments that haven't been reregistered in accordance with Russian regulations. This is one of the reasons why Ukrainians return to the occupied territories - Russians say they came to liberate. (Source: DW - Germany)
by Sokolova-Stekh

Asia

North Korea
(23 November 2024  Russia has supplied air defense missile systems to North Korea in exchange for sending its troops to support Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine, a top South Korean official said yesterday. Shin, national security adviser for South Korean President Yoon, told an SBS TV programme yesterday that South Korea has found Russia provided missiles and other equipment to help it reinforce its air defense network for Pyongyang, the capital. Shin didn’t say what specific missiles Russia gave to North Korea. Shin said Russia has also appeared to have given economic assistance to North Korea and various military technologies, including those needed for the North’s efforts to build a reliable space-based surveillance system. Shin didn’t say whether Russia has already transferred sensitive nuclear and missile technologies to North Korea. During a summit with North Korean leader Kim last year, Russian President Putin already said that Moscow was willing to help the North build satellites. North Korea put its first spy satellite into orbit in November last year, but foreign experts question whether that satellite can produce militarily meaningful imagery. The North’s attempt to launch a second spy satellite failed in May. Lee, an expert with the Korea Defense Network in South Korea, said that Russia has likely sent S-400 long-range surface-to-air missiles, launchers and ground-based radar systems. He said that North Korea is capable of building shorter-range surface-to-air missiles on its own. The S-400 missile, with a range of 400km, is considered one of Russia’s most advanced anti-aircraft weapons. Many observers say North Korea has likely felt the urgent need to boost its air defense capabilities after it last month accused South Korea of flying drones to scatter propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang. Kim, a military expert at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said it’s possible that the air defense systems North Korea acquired from Russia could include counter-drone equipment. The most alarming development for South Korea and the US would be Russia transferring sophisticated weapons technology that can enhance North Korea’s nuclear-capable missiles targeting its rivals. Many experts say that it is unlikely Russia would do this in the initial stage of the North’s troop deployment. Non-profit research group Open Source Centre said Pyongyang obtained oil shipments from Russia. It cited satellite images showing that more than a dozen North Korean oil tankers making a total of 43 trips to an oil terminal in Russia’s ports over the last eight months. Pictures also showed empty tanks leaving almost full after arrival, quoting British Foreign Secretary Lammy saying that the oil was payment for weapons and troops Pyongyang had sent to Moscow. ’The US, South Korea and Ukraine say North Korea sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia in October, some of whom have recently begun engaging in combat on the front lines’. (Source: Gulf Today - United Arab Emirates / „Agencies”)

North America

Canada
Nov 23, 2024 13:26 IST  Massive protests broke out on the streets of Montreal. The protests unfolded as NATO delegates convened in the city for a high-level summit. The summit, scheduled to be held from November 22 to 25, brought together representatives from NATO member states and partners to discuss Ukraine, climate change, and the alliance’s future. The protest coincided with the second day of city-wide student-led protests in support of Palestine. Demonstrators smashed windows, clashed with police, burned vehicles and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's effigy. Objects, including small explosives and metal projectiles, were thrown at police officers. Police responded with chemical irritants and crowd-control tactics. At least four people were arrested in connection with the violence till now. The crowd was dispersed by 7 pm. The unrest followed Thursday’s confrontations at Concordia University, where pro-Palestinian protesters clashed with pro-Israel counter-demonstrators. When the pot boils over, someone gets burned.” /Video/ (Source: India Today)

United States
Nov. 23, 2024 10:45 PM PT  President-elect Trump said today he will nominate former White House aide Rollins to be his Agriculture secretary. The nomination must be confirmed by the Senate, which will be controlled by Republicans when Trump takes office Jan. 20. Rollins, an attorney graduated from Texas A&M University with an undergraduate degree in agricultural development. She is a longtime Trump associate who served as White House domestic policy chief during his first presidency. The 52-year-old is president and CEO of the America First Policy Institute, a group helping to lay the groundwork for a second Trump administration. Rollins previously served as an aide to former Texas Gov. Perry and ran a think tank, the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Trump didn’t offer many specifics about his agriculture policies during the campaign, but farmers could be affected if he carries out his pledge to impose widespread tariffs. During the first Trump administration, countries including China responded to Trump’s tariffs by imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports such as the corn and soybeans routinely sold overseas. Trump countered by offering multibillion-dollar aid to farmers to help them weather the trade war. The Agriculture secretary oversees the sprawling agency that controls policies, regulations and aid programs related to farming, forestry, ranching, food quality and nutrition. The USDA oversees multiple support programs for farmers; animal and plant health; and the safety of meat, poultry and eggs that anchor the nation’s food supply. Its federal nutrition programs provide food to low-income people, pregnant women and young children. And the agency sets standards for school meals. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s nominee to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, has vowed to strip ultraprocessed foods from school lunches and to stop allowing Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) beneficiaries from using food stamps to buy soda, candy or other so-called junk foods. But it would be the USDA, not HHS, that would be responsible for enacting those changes. In addition, HHS and USDA will work together to finalize the 2025-30 edition of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. They are due late next year, with guidance for healthful diets and standards for federal nutrition programs. (Source: Los Angeles Times – U.S.)

23 Nov 2024 US  President-elect Trump has picked hedge fund manager Bessent, 62, to serve as Treasury secretary. The founder of the investment firm Key Square Capital Management will be responsible for implementing president-elect’s pledges to cut taxes and raise tariffs. “Scott is widely respected as one of the world’s foremost international investors and geopolitical and economic strategists,” Trump said in a statement late yesterday. ’He will help me usher in a new Golden Age for the United States, as we fortify our position as the world’s leading economy,’ he said, adding that Bessent would also help “reinvigorate the private sector, and help curb the unsustainable path of federal debt”. The head of the Treasury Department will have broad oversight of tax policy, public debt, international finance and sanctions. Bessent, a Wall Street financier once worked for Soros. He was donating at least $3m to the campaign. He has called for rolling back government subsidies, deregulating the economy, raising domestic energy production, and has also defended the use of tariffs. The market’s surge after Trump’s election victory signalled investor expectations of higher growth, lower volatility and inflation, and a revitalized economy for all Americans, he wrote in an opinion piece published in The Wall Street Journal. Trump also picked Vought was chosen to lead the Office of Management and Budget, the same position he held during Trump’s first presidency and Representative Chavez-DeRemer for labour secretary. He said he would nominate Turner, a former football player who worked in his first administration, to serve as housing secretary. Wall Street veteran Lutnick was named commerce secretary. Trump additionally nominated Dr Makary to lead the Food and Drug Administration. The surgeon and professor at Johns Hopkins University gained national attention for opposing vaccine mandates and other public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Fox News contributor Nesheiwat is set to be the next surgeon general, while doctor and former Republican Representative Weldon of Florida was chosen to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (Source: Al Jazeera)

(Saturday), November 23, 2024  President-elect Trump, who has long criticized NATO as overly reliant on American money, on Wednesday nominated loyalist Whitaker to the crucial post of ambassador to the alliance. “Matt is a strong warrior and loyal Patriot, who will ensure the United States’ interests are advanced and defended,' Trump said in a statement. “Matt will strengthen relationships with our NATO Allies, and stand firm in the face of threats to Peace and Stability – He will put America First,' Trump said. (Source: Greek Reporter - Greece)

23 November 2024 ((10:10)  NATO Secretary-General Rutte has met with President-elect Trump in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump is expected to push NATO members to pay more in defense expenditures in his second term. Trump has said he opposes further military aid to Ukraine. Rutte had earlier said he wanted to speak with Trump on North Korea, Iran, China and Russia ’working together against Ukraine.’ (Source: DW; - Germany „(AFP; Reuters)„

NATO

November 23, 2024  A common complaint from some American lawmakers – and their supporters – is that Europe is sitting back while the United States is alone in providing aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia. Though the U.S. military support has indeed eclipsed that of other nations, many NATO members have pulled their weight. Defense spending among European NATO allies has surged by 18%, reaching 2.71% of GDP, underscoring their commitment to bolstering Ukraine's fight against Russia. Denmark and the Netherlands recently delivered F-16 fighters. Belgium and Norway are providing F-16s to aid Kyiv's war effort, and those aircraft are on track for delivery next year. France announced last month that an undisclosed number of Dassault Mirage 2000-5 multirole fighters will be transferred in the first half of 2005. As previously reported, the French Air Force is currently modifying the jets to enhance air-to-ground combat capabilities and electronic warfare systems, aligning them with the needs of the ongoing conflict, which has largely lacked air-to-air combat scenarios. This week, Denmark confirmed that the first six F-16 Fighting Falcons have been delivered to the Ukrainian Air Force, while additional aircraft are expected to arrive in the coming months. The Netherlands also announced that it has provided the final two of 18 pledged F-16s, and that the fighters arrived at a NATO training facility in Romania. Ukrainian pilots and ground personnel are already in the Eastern European nation, where they are being trained to fly and maintain multirole combat aircraft. President Zelensky had long called for the F-16s, arguing that it would bolster the Ukrainian military's ability ’to launch a counter-offensive’. In addition to air support, NATO members have provided tanks like Germany’s Leopard 2, the UK’s Challenger 2, and the U.S.’s M1 Abrams, with Spain leading in tank contributions. as the Spanish Army already provided a total of 29 Leopard 2A4 models from its fleet. Multiple NATO partners have provided infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and armored personnel carriers (APCs). ’NATO in Europe is spending $380,000,000,000’. (Source: The National Interest - U.S. )

.4 11 24 00:09

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Címkék: video russia india china virus iran nato romania france belgium germany europe denmark asia israel canada malta spain greece norway ukraine donbass belarus unitedkingdom palestine europeanunion unitedstates northkorea southkorea europeanparliament blacksea atlanticocean thenetherlands crimea northamerica unitedarabemirates

2024. XI. 22. Romania, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, South Korea, United States, International Criminal Court

2024.11.23. 02:09 Eleve

 

Europe

Romania
(Friday), 22 November 2024 
Romania heads into two weeks of elections. The first round of the presidential election will take place on Sunday. Romania's populists and nationalists look set to get a record result. (Source: DW - Germany)
by Verseck

Russia
15:29 ET, Nov 22 2024  Putin has called a secret meeting for tonight after threatening with his new deadly missile. In his televised speech, Putin said Russia had launched a new kind of hypersonic ballistic missile dubbed "Oreshnik" in response to Ukraine's strikes in Russia's Kursk region. According to him, his new deadly weapon travelled at 10 times the speed of sound and therefore couldn't be intercepted. The intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) hit a defence enterprise in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro yesterday morning. Russian sources claim its 5,000km range would allow Russia to devastatingly strike most of Europe and the west coast of the US. Speaking last night, Putin said: "Russia considers itself entitled to use weapons against military facilities of countries that permit the use of their weapons against Russia. "Since this moment, as we have underscored repeatedly, the conflict in Ukraine, provoked by the West, has acquired elements of global nature. "One of the newest Russian medium-range missile systems was tested, among other things. "In this case, with a ballistic missile in a nuclear-free hypersonic equipment. Our engineers named it Oreshnik. "In response to the use of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21 of this year, the Russian armed forces launched a combined strike on one of the facilities of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine." he added: "If necessary, we will choose targets for destruction. "There are currently no means to counter such weapons. It is impossible. "I recommend that the ruling elites of those countries which are considering allegiance against Russia seriously consider this." There are fears Russia has up to 10 of these new terrifying ballistic missiles in its arsenal. One of Ukraine's ex-top generals eerily claimed his country prepares for a Russian revenge strike on its Parliament building. The 'Kremlin has said that a strike on Ukraine using the newly developed missile was a message to the West that Moscow will respond harshly to any 'reckless' Western actions. Kremlin spokesman Peskov warned that the West 'cannot remain without a reaction from the Russian side' when producing and supplying missiles for Ukraine. Peskov said: "The Russian side has clearly demonstrated its capabilities, and the contours of further retaliatory actions in the event that our concerns are not taken into account have been quite clearly outlined.' He added that Putin remained open to dialogue, but that the outgoing administration of President Biden 'prefers to continue down the path of escalation'. (Source: The U.S. Sun - United Kingdom)
by Bate, foreign news reporter

7:27 am, November 22, 2024  A high-ranking North Korean general 'was injured in a Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Kursk region', The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing unnamed Western officials. The sources did not disclose the circumstances of the injury or the identity of the general. (Source: Meduza - Headquarters Riga, Latvia)

Asia

China
2024-11-22 14:27:00  The country
has achieved full visa exemption with 25 countries. In November 2023, the ministry announced a unilateral visa-free entry trial for ordinary passport holders from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia starting Dec. 1, 2023. In the third quarter of 2024, China recorded 8.19 million inbound trips by foreigners, an increase of 48.8 percent compared to the same period last year. Among them, 4.89 million were made through visa-free arrangements. (Source: Xinhua - China)

Iran
22/11/2024 - 08:05  One day after commending Iran's agreement
to cap its uranium stockpiles, the UN's nuclear watchdog passed a censure motion yesterday denouncing Iran's lack of transparency on its nuclear activities. Although symbolic in nature at this stage, the censure motion is designed to raise diplomatic pressure on Iran. The confidential resolution's text calls on Tehran to provide technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles found at two undeclared locations in Iran. Early today, Tehran responded to the measure by announcing it was launching “new and advanced” centrifuges. (Source: France 24 "with AFP" - France)

North Korea
November 22, 2024   Daily NK has acquired the full text of the Public Reporting System Law, which was revised by North Korea’s government in 2022. The state hopes to increase control. The revised law establishes a reporting system for neighborhood watch units; enables patrols and regional authorities to collect reports; and authorizes computerized reporting methods, building a multifaceted system of surveillance and reporting. North Korean mobile phones are equipped with an app called 'Report,' indicating that the online reporting system is expanding from intranet environments to mobile devices. (Source: Daily NK - based in Seoul, South Korea)

South Korea
Nov 22, 2024  Seoul has long harbored ambitions to join the ranks of the world's top arms exporters -  aiming to be the fourth-largest, behind the U.S., Russia and France -  something that is now possible, industry research indicates. Longstanding domestic policy bars Seoul from sending weapons into active conflict zones, 'but ever since its spy agency accused the nuclear-armed North last month of sending thousands of soldiers to help Moscow fight Kyiv, South Korea has warned it might change course'. Whether - or how - South Korea decides to help Ukraine directly depends on 'the level of North Korean involvement,' President Yoon said earlier this month, adding Seoul was 'not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons.' If South Korea were to supply arms, the initial batch would be defensive in nature, Yoon said. Ukraine is reliant on Western air defense systems, particularly Patriots, to protect itself from Russian missile barrages - and has been calling for more deliveries. Washington said in June it would prioritize deliveries to Kyiv, ahead of other countries that have placed orders. 'But were South Korea, which remains technically at war with the nuclear-armed North and has maintained production of weaponry long ignored by Western arms industries, to get involved, it could potentially make a huge difference.' The South has remained combat-ready since its 1950-53 war with the North ended in a truce, and while Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea's largest defense contractor, was once seen by analysts as retrograde for its focus on land weapons, it is now in high demand. The heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe have heavily benefited the South Korean company, which saw its on-year operating profit soar over 450% in the latest quarter to $343.3 million. It has signed major arms deals with countries such as Poland and Romania, including the export of K9 Howitzers and Chunmoo missile systems. It has already sold 155mm artillery shells to Washington - but with a "final user" agreement in place meaning the United States would be the military that uses the munitions. Experts have said this allows the United States to then provide their own shells to Kyiv. Hanwha's other weapons offer that could shift the balance of war in Ukraine is its Chunmoo guided missile system, experts said. Top of the list for Ukraine would be the "Cheongung" - or Sky Arrow -  air defense system, a domestically produced Iron Dome-style interception shield of the Hanwha Aerospace factory in the southern city of Changwon. The Cheongung system is similar to the U.S. Patriot missile system, said senior manager Jung at Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea's largest defense contractor. If North Korea's direct involvement in the war escalates, (Seoul) may consider sending lethal weapons, in addition to defensive ones. 'What Ukraine urgently needs to turn the war in its favor are offensive weapons like Chunmoo missiles and K9 howitzers, capable of inflicting significant damage on the enemy,' said Choi, professor of military studies at Sangji University. 'With a maximum range of 290 kilometers, Chunmoo can strike targets in Pyongyang if launched from the border area in the South,' Choi added. (Source: The Japan Times / AFP – France; Jiji Press - Japan)

North America

United States
November 22, 2024  "From now on, Europe’s security will have to be European - or it won’t exist at all'. Even Trump’s predecessor, President Obama, had concluded that the United States should reduce its footprint in Europe and the Middle East in order to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific. Although the Russian war against Ukraine led the Biden administration 'to reprioritize European security', this was only a temporary deviation, not a general change in U.S. strategy. (Source: Freign Affairs)
by Röttgen, a member of the German Bundestag and its Foreign Affairs Committee; Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee from 2014 to 2021 and Federal Minister of the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety from 2009 to 2012.

22 Nov, 2024 04:17 AM  US President-elect Trump tapped former Florida Attorney-General Bondi, a staunch ally to be the next US Attorney-General after the withdrawal of Gaetz. Bondi served as a surrogate during the 2024 campaign and pushed to delegitimise vote counting in swing state Pennsylvania in 2020. She could be seen as a useful tool for Trump in his attempt to settle personal grievances. “For too long, the partisan Department of Justice has been weaponised against me and other Republicans – Not anymore,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social network in announcing Bondi’s nomination. Bondi, 59, was a member of Trump’s legal team during his first Senate impeachment trial, in which he was alleged to have pressured Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, using aid as leverage, to hand over political dirt on Biden. (Source: The New Zealand Herald / AFP - France)

International Criminal Court

(21 November 2024)  The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a war crimes arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his now sacked defence minister Gallant, and a Hamas commander, Deif, who Israel says was killed in July. Judges said there were reasonable grounds to believe the three men bore criminal responsibility for crimes during the war between Israel and Hamas. Both Israel and Hamas reject the allegations made by the ICC. For Netanyahu and Gallant, who was replaced as defence minister earlier this month, an ICC pre-trial chamber found reasonable grounds to believe that they each bear criminal responsibility for the following crimes as co-perpetrators for committing the acts jointly with others: the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts. It also found reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu and Gallant bear criminal responsibility as civilian superiors for the war crime of intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population. Netanyahu said Israel would not recognise the validity of the ICC's decision. In a statement today, Netanyahu said: The antisemitic decision of the international court in The Hague is a modern Dreyfus trial, and it will end the same way. "The court in The Hague accuses us of a deliberate policy of starvation,’ the Israeli PM said. "This when we have supplied Gaza with 700,000 tons of food to feed the people of Gaza. We issue millions of text messages, phone calls, leaflets to the citizens of Gaza to get them out of harm's way - while the Hamas terrorists do everything in their power to keep them in harm’s way, including shooting them, using them as human shields.’ Just this week, the UN warned that Palestinians were facing diminishing conditions for survival in parts of northern Gaza under siege by Israeli forces because virtually no aid had been delivered in 40 days. Gallant said the ICC placed the state of Israel and the murderous leaders of Hamas in the same row and thus legitimises the murder of babies, the rape of women and the abduction of the elderly from their beds. For Deif, an ICC pre-trial chamber found reasonable grounds to believe he was responsible for the crimes against humanity of murder; extermination; torture; and rape and other form of sexual violence; as well as the war crimes of murder, cruel treatment, torture; taking hostages; outrages upon personal dignity; and rape and other form of sexual violence. It also said there were reasonable grounds to believe the crimes against humanity were part of a widespread and systematic attack directed by Hamas and other armed groups against the civilian population of Israel. Olmert, a former Israeli prime minister, told that while he was critical of Netanyahu's handling of the conflict with Hamas, he did not agree with the ICC's decision. "Israel has not committed genocide or war crimes that deserve these charges against the prime minister and the minister of defence," Olmert told. Hamas made no mention of the Deif warrant. Palestinians in Gaza expressed hope Israeli leaders would now be brought to justice. The impact of the warrants announced by the ICC will depend on whether the court's 124 member states - which do not include Israel or its ally, the US - decide to enforce them or not. US President Biden has called the ICC war crimes arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister outrageous. "Whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence - none - between Israel and Hamas," Biden said in a statement. "We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security." Europe and the US were split in their response to the warrant, with several European countries saying they respect ICC decisions. Officials from Britain, the EU, France, Italy and the Netherlands have all made statements standing by the Court. The British government said it respected the independence of the court. EU foreign policy chief Borrell said the decision of the court has to be respected and implemented. "We will act on the arrest warrants," the Dutch foreign minister said. Israel’s closest allies in the EU rejected the ICC's move. The Czech prime minister said the court had made an unfortunate decision in equating the elected representatives of a democratic state with the leaders of an Islamist terrorist organisation. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he was going to invite Netanyahu to visit, "and in that invite I will guarantee him that if he comes, the ICC's ruling will have no effect in Hungary, and we will not follow its contents”. South Africa welcomed the ICC decision, and urged all state parties to act in accordance with their obligations in the Rome Statute. Israel says 97 hostages kidnapped in Hamas's 7 October 2023 attack are still being held in Gaza. Israel denies the allegation that its forces are committing genocide in Gaza, which is the subject of a separate case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). South Africa - which failed to honour an ICC arrest warrant against the Sudanese leader al-Bashir when he visited the country in June 2015 - has brought a case against Israel at the ICJ accusing it of genocide. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)
by Lukiv
See also: Israeli PM Netanyahu reacts to ICC arrest warrant for alleged Gaza war crimes /Video/ (Source: Youtube / Hindustan Times – India)

.4 11 23 01:21

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2024. XI. 21. Germany, Russia, United Kingdom, Israel, North Korea, Syria, Taiwan, United States, United Nations, International Criminal Court

2024.11.21. 22:35 Eleve

.

Europe

Germany
21.11.2024  The German armed forces
have initiated a series of meetings with industry officials to discuss 'potential conflict scenarios in Eastern Europe'. The meetings are part of the Operations Plan Germany, a 1,000-page classified strategy document detailing plans to prepare companies in various sectors, as well as civilian organizations, for possible crisis and conflict scenarios, according to Die Welt daily. The document reportedly lists buildings and infrastructure facilities deemed crucial for military purposes and outlines response plans for crisis and conflict situations, including 'potential Russian aggression on NATO's eastern flank'. According to NATO's defense plans, in the event of a conflict in Eastern Europe, Germany would serve as a hub for tens of thousands of NATO soldiers who would need to be transported eastward, along with military equipment, food, and medicine. Military experts warn that if infrastructure is used for military purposes, the risk of cyberattacks and sabotage rises significantly, potentially impacting German industries and companies. At a recent gathering at the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce, Lt. Col. Plischke advised beefing up security measures against possible acts of sabotage and cyberattacks, developing alternative energy sources, and acquiring diesel generators in case of power cuts. He also stressed the importance of workforce planning. "Seventy percent of all trucks on Germany's roads are driven by Eastern Europeans. If there’s a war there, where will these people be?' he reportedly said. He also suggested: For every 100 employees, train at least five additional truck drivers. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Russia
21.11.2024  Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman
Zakharova criticized today the opening of the US-NATO missile defense base in Poland. It is "a blatantly provocative step in a series of deeply destabilizing actions by the United States and its NATO allies in the strategic sphere," she said. ’Given the nature and level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been identified as a priority target for potential destruction, if necessary, using a wide range of advanced weapons,’ she said. Responding to Estonian Foreign Minister Tsakhkna's suggestion that European military forces should be sent to Ukraine, Zakharova warned that deploying NATO troops in Ukraine would mean direct involvement in a conflict with Russia. 'This would have catastrophic consequences not only for Europe but for the entire world,' she cautioned. She also criticized the Baltic states for their aggressive rhetoric, particularly targeting Estonia's radical and nationalist overtones. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

21.11.2024  The Russian ambassador to the UK, Kelin, claimed that Britain is now 'directly involved' in the Ukraine war following Ukraine's use of British-made Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia. 'Absolutely, Britain and the UK is now directly involved in this war, because this firing cannot happen without NATO staff, British staff as well," Kelin stated, speaking to Sky News today. When pressed on whether Russia’s own use of foreign-supplied equipment - such as Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean technology - constitutes direct involvement, Kelin deflected by focusing on the presence of foreign fighters supporting Ukraine. 'We have plenty of mercenaries from different countries that are fighting right now on the side of Ukraine,' he said. The recent shift to supplying long-range missiles like the Storm Shadow may signal a turning point in Western involvement in the conflict. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

November 21, 2024 12:53 PM ET  Russia launched an experimental ballistic missile at the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro overnight, the U.S. National Security Council says. Russian President Putin has now confirmed the launch of a ballistic missile during a speech. Ukraine's Air Force said today that Russia launched the missile from the Astrakhan region in southeastern Russia, more than 770 miles away. The Ukrainian government said it was one of nine rockets fired at Dnipro. Earlier this week, Ukraine fired a series of U.S.-made longer-range missiles, known as ATACMS, into Russia for the first time, following approval from the Biden administration. (Source: National Public Radio - U.S.)

21/11/2024  President Putin said on Russian television that a new intermediate-range missile had been fired at Ukraine, hours 'after claims from Kyiv of the first known use of an even longer-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)'. Putin claimed it targeted a military facility. He told Russian viewers that the move was a response to the US and UK granting Ukraine permission to strike targets further inside Russia in a limited capacity with their weaponry. Putin said Russia would have the "right" to strike countries whose weapons were used by Ukraine to strike Russia. (Source: DW - Germany)

Nov 21, 2024, 06:04 PM  Russia is ready to consider any “realistic” peace initiative on the conflict in Ukraine which takes into account Russia’s own interests and the situation on the ground, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said today. “We are open to negotiations, we are ready to consider any realistic, non-politicised initiative – of course,” Ms Zakharova said, adding: “I would like to emphasise once again: The key word is taking into account the interests of our country, the current situation on ground and guarantees of compliance with relevant agreements.” Russia is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join Nato. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Nov 21, 2024  Russia fired intercontinental ballistic missile at the central-eastern city of Dnipro, Ukraine, 'Kyiv reports'. It did not say what kind of intercontinental ballistic missile was fired. It was unclear from the statement what the intercontinental ballistic missile targeted and whether it caused any damage. The missiles have a range of thousands of kilometers and can be used to deliver nuclear warheads, though they can also carry conventional warheads. (Source: The Japan Times / Reuters - United Kingdom)

November 21, 2024, Thursday // 10:22  Russian forces fired intercontinental missile between 05:00 and 07:00 - an intercontinental ballistic missile was fired from Russia’s Astrakhan Oblast. The Air Force did not specify which missile was used. Prior reports on social media warned of a possible attack using the RS-26 'Rubezh' missile. Russian forces launched a series of missile attacks on the city of Dnipro, targeting businesses and critical infrastructure. A MiG-31K fighter jet launched a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched missile from Tambov Oblast. Seven Kh-101 cruise missiles were fired from Tu-95MS bombers based in Volgograd Oblast. Ukraine’s Air Force intercepted and destroyed six of the Kh-101 missiles. Yesterday, at 22:00, Russian forces carried out an aerial bombing on the city of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast. The attack involved two FAB-250 bombs equipped with UMPB modules, which convert unguided bombs into guided munitions. (Source: Novinite – Bulgaria)
Footage suggest the use of a missile with a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) which allows it to carry multiple warheads. (Source: X)

(Thursday), 21 November 2024, 08:57  After US and UK rockets were used in their territory, Russia is threatening to use new missiles to retaliate against Ukraine. It comes after the US embassy in Kyiv was forced to temporarily close amid concerns of a "significant air attack". Meanwhile, Putin has also signed a new doctrine lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. The doctrine said any aggression against Russia by a state which was a member of a coalition would be considered by Moscow to be aggression against it by the whole coalition. Medvedev, who is deputy chairman of the Security Council, confirmed the decision on Tuesday, tweeting: "Russia's new nuclear doctrine means NATO missiles fired against our country could be deemed an attack by the bloc on Russia. "Russia could retaliate with WMD against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they're located. That means World War III'. Residents in the village of Marino, close to the city of Kursk, claimed to have found fragments of the UK-supplied Storm Shadow missile yesterday. The attacks were reportedly personally approved by Keir Starmer. It came a day after Russia's defence ministry said Ukraine hit the country with ATACMS missiles supplied by the US. Five missiles were shot down and one damaged, with fragments causing a sizeable fire at a military facility in the region. Russia warned that the move would result in a 'tangible response'. It is ready to unleash its RS-26 or Frontier missiles in Ukraine from a base in Astrakhan. "In this situation, we will not use nuclear weapons, but the neo-Nazis and their Western allies, I think, will appreciate in the coming days the blow that will be dealt to Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and, possibly, to targets in Kyiv itself,’ Syrlanov, a Russian military analyst told Russian newspaper Moskovky Komsomolets. 'Let them tremble, be afraid, and wait for landings anywhere. "Moreover, the enemy understands perfectly well that our weapons can reach any targets throughout Ukraine.' Until now, Russia has been using smaller Iskander missiles in Ukraine. The new weapons, which are yet to be used in combat, weigh up to 50 tonnes and have a 3,600 mile-range. (Source: Leading Britain’s Conversation – United Kingdom)
by Soteriou

United Kingdom
21 November 2024  Royal Marines Lieutenant General Magowan Army chief speaking in a parliamentary select committee hearing went on to say that nobody in the room should be under any illusions. ‘If the Russians invaded Eastern Europe tonight then we would meet them in that fight.’ ‘If the British Army was asked to fight tonight, it would fight tonight,’ he said. Magowan was sitting alongside defence secretary Healey who was also facing MPs in light of claims that Ukraine fired British missiles at Russia for the first time. Moscow claims Russian air defences shot down two British Storm Shadow cruise missiles. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

Asia

Israel
21 November 2024 ((10 AM)) 
Israel launches deadly strikes across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, kills at least 140 people in less than 24 hours in a sharp escalation following ambushes by Hamas fighters in northern Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Overnight attacks north of Gaza continued into the morning, with 95 fatalities reported in the besieged enclave alone. At least nine people were killed and 70 injured in Israeli air strikes on Tyre district in southern Lebanon, the Ministry of Health said yesterday. An Israeli air strike on the town of Maarakeh resulted in the martyrdom of four people and injured five others, it said in a statement. A separate strike on the town of Qlaileh killed one person. Lebanon's National News Agency reported intense clashes and attempts by the Israeli army to advance from the outskirts of Aalma El Chaeb toward the village of Shama and town of Biyyadah in southern Lebanon. Earlier yesterday, at least 36 people were killed and more than 50 others injured in an Israeli air strike in the city of Palmyra in central Syria. Israeli warplanes carried out a strike from the direction of the Al-Tanf area in western Syria. The attack targeted residential buildings and an industrial zone in the city. Extensive material damage was reported in the area. Israel, which rarely comments on military incursions, has conducted air strikes in Syria since 2011, with its alleged focus on Iranian and Syrian forces and Hezbollah targets. The latest air strikes highlight continuing regional tensions amid Israel’s military offensives in occupied Gaza and Lebanon. (Source: TRT World – Turkey)

North Korea
2024-11-21 17:46:20  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
says the uranium enrichment facility that North Korean leader Kim visited in September appears to be an undeclared annex of the Kangson Complex near Pyongyang. IAEA Director-General Grossi revealed the assessment in his opening remarks for the agency’s board of governors meeting in Vienna yesterday. Grossi said the depicted centrifuge cascades and infrastructure are consistent with the layout of a centrifuge enrichment facility. Grossi was referring to images that the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency previously released on September 13 of Kim visiting the facility without elaborating its location. The Kangson Complex on the outskirts of Pyongyang has long been identified and monitored by U.S. intelligence authorities as a secret uranium enrichment in addition to the North's Yongbyon nuclear facility. (Source: KBS World - South Korea)

Syria
November 21, 2024  Israeli strikes
killed 71 pro-Iran militants in the Syrian city of Palmyra yesterday, with more than a third of them identified as fighters from Iraq and Lebanon, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor based in Britain said today. Those killed included 45 fighters from pro-Iran Syrian groups, 26 foreign fighters, most of them from the Iraqi Al-Nujaba movement, and four from Lebanon’s Hezbollah armed group. The strikes targeted three sites in the city, including one that hit a meeting of pro-Iranian groups with leaders from Al-Nujaba and Hezbollah. Syria said the Israeli strikes on the central city killed 36 people and wounded more than 50 others, in the latest toll issued by the defense ministry. (Source: Arab News - Saudi Arabia)

Taiwan
Nov 21, 2024, 05:46 PM  Taiwan would like to establish a representative office in the country, Taiwan Deputy Foreign Minister Wu said. Taiwan has provided millions of dollars of humanitarian aid for Ukrainian refugees and joined in Western-led sanctions on Russia. It has offered strong moral support to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion two years ago, seeing parallels with the threat Taipei says it faces from its neighbour China. “Ukraine, even while receiving Taiwan’s support and sensing hostility from China – since China collaborates with Russia, which continues its war against Ukraine – is very careful about its relationship with Taiwan,” Mr Wu, who until August was Taiwan’s high-profile de facto ambassador in Paris said, during a visit to Berlin, yesterday. “There is a fear within Ukraine that angering China could lead to closer China-Russia collaboration, intensifying military pressure.” Mr Wu said Taiwan is focusing on developing relationships with Ukraine through its neighbours and providing humanitarian aid. “However, military assistance is still too sensitive, so I don’t think we’re working on security equipment with Ukraine just yet.” Taiwan’s defence minister said last week it was up to the United States to decide what to do with Taiwan’s decommissioned Hawk anti-aircraft missiles, when asked if they would be transferred to Ukraine. (Source: The Straits Times – Singapore / Reuters – United Kingdom)

North America

United States
Nov 21, 2024  Could F-16s for Ukraine gain access to NATO’s Link-16 network? Ukraine continues to push for the integration of the Link 16 tactical network into the F-16 fighter jets being supplied by Western allies. Link 16 is a modern tactical network for real-time information exchange, enabling various military platforms to share battlefield data with high speed and precision. Effectiveness of F-16s integrated with Link 16 is improved significantly, as they can connect directly with ground command centers, other aircraft, warships, drones, and satellites. This creates a comprehensive battlefield picture, enabling faster and more informed decisions in a dynamic environment. The ability to integrate with satellites is critical for networks like Link 16, as satellites provide essential positioning and early warning information. This include data from commercial and military satellites monitoring troop movements and air defense systems. F-16s use their onboard sensors for additional verification of these insights transmitted in real-time and execute precision strikes. Synchronization between the F-16s and ground-based intelligence systems via Link 16 allow for the rapid identification and elimination of threats with significantly reduced reaction times. F-16s equipped with Link 16 can act as airborne hubs, coordinating the actions of drones, artillery, and other platforms. For instance, if a drone detects a convoy or battery, the information could be immediately relayed to an F-16, which would assess the situation and assign tasks: the drone continues surveillance while the F-16 executes a strike or transmits target coordinates to ground-based artillery. This integration significantly increases the accuracy and efficiency of attacks, minimizing risks to forces. The Link 16 technology is also crucial for coordination in a complex environment saturated with air defense threats. F-16s use data from ground radars and other aircraft to navigate safe routes and avoid areas with a high concentration of enemy missiles. Simultaneously, the system allows tactical data sharing, such as the location of surface-to-air missiles or enemy aircraft, directly with other platforms, such as allied fighter jets or counter-artillery systems. Link 16 not only provides tactical advantages but also strengthens strategic resilience. The system can operate in environments of intense electronic warfare, which Russia actively employs in the conflict. Connections between different platforms can be encrypted and distributed so that the disruption of one link does not compromise the entire network. This ensures that forces can rely on robust and secure communications even under heavy jamming conditions. The United States remains hesitant due to the risk that the system could fall into Russian hands in the event of a shootdown or capture of an aircraft. However, the issue remains relevant, with Turkish sources reporting that NATO committees are actively discussing the possibility. This suggests that the Ukrainian Air Force gaining access to Link 16 is still 'a viable option'. If approved, Ukrainian F-16s would be able to exchange real-time information with key NATO platforms such as the RC-135W Rivet Joint, E-3A AWACS, P-8A Poseidon, and Saab-340. These aircraft would provide critical intelligence, enhancing the situational awareness of Ukrainian pilots. The ability to coordinate with NATO’s early warning and intelligence systems would deliver unprecedented operational synergy. For instance, during low-altitude penetration missions into Russian territory, F-16s could rely on external data when their own radars are off to avoid detection. Security concerns remain significant. Turkish analysts warn that if an F-16 equipped with Link 16 is captured or shot down, this could compromise NATO’s critical cryptographic codes and technologies. Such a scenario would threaten not only the security of Ukrainian operations but also that of the entire Alliance. The fact that Link 16 integration requires aircraft retrofitting further complicates the situation. While removed modules can be recovered, their loss to Russian forces would provide Moscow direct access to NATO technologies. There is even greater concern about internal threats - bribery or information leaks could compromise the entire network. The decision involves a delicate balance between giving Ukraine a strategic advantage and minimizing risks to NATO. According to Turkish sources, ongoing discussions within NATO committees indicate that the Alliance faces a tough dilemma. If Link 16 is provided, 'it could alter the course of the war', but only if its security is guaranteed at every level. (Source: BulgarianMilitary)
by Nikolov

United Nations

21/11/2024 - 9:41 GMT+1  The United States has vetoed a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, stating that it did not make the release of hostages a condition. The 15-member UN Security Council voted 14-1 in favour of a resolution that “demands an immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire to be respected by all parties, and further reiterates its demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.” The US was the only country to oppose the text. As one of the five permanent members with veto power - alongside Russia, China, Britain, and France - the US has the power to block the decision. Deputy US ambassador to the UN, Wood, said yesterday that his country would only support a resolution that explicitly calls for the immediate release of hostages. “Let me say this clearly, there are still seven American citizens in the hands of Hamas. We will not forget them. For our part, we will continue to pursue a diplomatic solution, that brings peace, security and freedom to Palestinians in Gaza,’ he told the UN voting chamber in Washington. (Source: Euronews - Headquarter Lyon / AP – U.S.)

International Criminal Court

21.11.2024  The International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a former defense minister mark a critical step in holding Israeli leaders accountable, the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) international movement said today. ’All States parties to the Rome Statute, including deeply complicit ones such as Germany and the United Kingdom, are now compelled to meet their duty, fully cooperating with the ICC and executing these arrest warrants,’ the BDS said in a statement. ’Israel's unchecked brutality and depravity, armed, funded and enabled by the US-led colonial West, have faced another unprecedented blow,’ it concluded. The warrants, announced today, come as Israel’s genocidal offensive in Gaza recently entered its second year, having already killed some 44,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, and injured over 103,000 others. The Israeli onslaught has displaced almost the entire population of the territory amid an ongoing and deliberate blockade that has led to severe shortages of food, clean water, and medicine, pushing the population to the brink of starvation. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

.4 11 21 21:40

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Címkék: russia taiwan japan china iran nato france germany europe asia singapore israel iraq turkey bulgaria poland ukraine gaza syria unitedkingdom estonia palestine lebanon unitednations greatbritain unitedstates northkorea southkorea saudiarabia baltics northamerica internationalatomicenergyagency internationalcriminalcourt

2024. XI. 20. II. Russia, Ukraine, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Turkey

2024.11.21. 00:28 Eleve

.

Europe

Russia
November 20, 2024 10:42 AM GMT+1 
Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion. In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines. There may be room for negotiation over the precise carve-up of the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. While Moscow claims the four regions as wholly part of Russia, defended by the country's nuclear umbrella, its forces on the ground control 70-80% of the territory with about 26,000 square km still held by Ukrainian troops, open-source data on the front line shows. Russia may also be open to withdrawing from the relatively small patches of territory it holds in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions. Putin said this month that any ceasefire deal should reflect the "realities" on the ground but that he feared a short-lived truce which would only allow the West to rearm Ukraine. "If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine," Putin told the Valdai discussion group on Nov. 7. "Why? Because this would mean that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation." Outgoing U.S. President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American ATACMS missiles deep into Russia could complicate and delay any settlement - and stiffen Moscow's demands as hardliners push for a bigger chunk of Ukraine. Yesterday, Kyiv used the missiles to strike Russian territory, according to Moscow which decried the move as a major escalation. If no ceasefire is agreed, then Russia will fight on. "Putin has already said that freezing the conflict will not work in any way," Kremlin spokesman Peskov told Reuters hours before the Russians reported the ATACMS strikes. "And the missile authorisation is a very dangerous escalation on the part of the United States." "He is the only person who can bring both sides together in order to negotiate peace, and work towards ending the war and stopping the killing,” Trump's communications director Cheung told about the incoming U.S. president. Real estate billionaire Trump, author of the 1987 book "Trump: the Art of the Deal", has said he would speak directly to Putin in his efforts to forge a peace deal. Zelenskiy has said his country will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory - based on the borders it gained after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union - though top U.S. generals have said publicly that this is a very ambitious aim. On June 14, Putin set out his opening terms for an immediate end to the war: Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from the entirety of the territory of four regions claimed and mostly controlled by Russia. While Russia will not tolerate Ukraine joining NATO, or the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, it is open to discussing security guarantees for Kyiv. Other Ukrainian concessions the Kremlin could push for include Kyiv agreeing to limit the size of its armed forces and committing not to restrict the use of the Russian language. Simes, who emigrated to the United States from the Soviet Union in 1973 and is one of Russia's best-connected experts on America, said a ceasefire agreement could be struck relatively swiftly to end the war. But a wider, lasting deal that addressed both Ukraine and Russia's security concerns would be extremely challenging to forge, as the positions of the two sides are very far apart, he added. Russia controls 18% of Ukraine including all of Crimea, 80% of the Donbas and more than 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.It also holds just under 3% of the Kharkiv region and a sliver of Mykolaiv. In total, Russia has over 110,000 square km of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine holds about 650 square km of Russia's Kursk region. Domestically, Putin could sell a ceasefire deal that saw Russia hold onto most of the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as a victory that ensured the defence of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine and safeguarded the landbridge to Crimea. The future of Crimea itself is not up for discussion. One of the officials, a senior source with knowledge of top-level Kremlin discussions, said the West would have to accept the "harsh truth" that all the support it had given Ukraine could not prevent Russia from winning the war. Putin, a former KGB lieutenant colonel who watched the Soviet Union crumble while stationed in Dresden, took the decision to invade Ukraine himself with only limited counsel from a tiny group of trusted advisers. He will likewise have the deciding voice on any ceasefire. The Kremlin chief presents what he calls the "special military operation" in Ukraine as a watershed moment when Moscow finally stood up to what he sees as the arrogance of the West which enlarged NATO eastwards towards Russia's borders and meddled in the politics of what Moscow considers as its own backyard, including Georgia and, crucially, Ukraine. When asked what a possible ceasefire might look like, two of the Russian sources referred to a draft agreement that was almost approved in April 2022 after talks in Istanbul, and which Putin has referred to in public as a possible basis for a deal. Under that draft, Ukraine should agree to permanent neutrality in return for international security guarantees from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. One of the Russian officials said there would be no agreement unless Ukraine received security guarantees, adding: "The question is how to avoid a deal that locks the West into a possible direct confrontation with Russia one day." (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
by Faulconbridge, Moscow bureau chief

Ukraine
20 November 2024 ((22:15))  Ukraine has fired UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia. Kyiv was previously restricted to using the long-range missiles within its own borders. Storm Shadow is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of around 250km. The French call it Scalp. It is considered an ideal weapon for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores, such as those used by Russia in its war against Ukraine. It is launched from aircraft then flies at close to the speed of sound, hugging the terrain, before dropping down and detonating its high explosive warhead. The US and UK had previously not given permission, with suggestions this was related to not wanting to escalate the war. The government has refused to comment on the reports but officials confirmed Defence Secretary Healey spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart yesterday night. Ukraine's Defence Minister Umerov has also declined to confirm that his country has used the Storm Shadow missiles within Russian territory, but said it was ’using all the means' to defend the country. Miller, the US State Department’s spokesman, would also not comment on the use of the UK-supplied missile or whether the US was providing navigational assistance for their use. The US has approved sending landmines to Ukraine, too, in an attempt to slow down Russian troops. BBC Verify showed images on Telegram claiming to show fragments of a Storm Shadow missile in Kursk to weapons expert Kotlarski, Weapons Team manager at Janes, who said: ’We can confirm that the large, rectangular piece of debris, featuring a hole in the centre, does indeed match part of the mounting interface of the Storm Shadow / SCALP EG missile.’ (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

November 20, 2024, Wednesday // 10:07  The war in Ukraine could have ended in 2022 following the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv, but Western partners prevented such an outcome, according to Yaroslavsky, commander of an intelligence division in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Speaking on "Kyiv24," he stated that Ukraine's forces had the potential to bring the conflict to a conclusion. "This counteroffensive could have ended the war, but our partners did not allow us to do it because of their principles. At that time, we did not advance into the Belgorod region, and the war continues to this day. I am convinced it could have ended in 2022," Yaroslavsky said. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

20 Nov, 2024 09:30 AM  The US embassy in Kyiv warned today of a “potential significant air attack” and shuttered its doors, following Russia’s vow to respond after Ukraine fired longer-range US missiles at its territory. (Source: The New Zealand Herald / AFP - France)

Asia

Lebanon
20.11.2024  At least 13 people were killed in overnight airstrikes staged by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon. Fighter jets struck a home in Maarakeh town, killing two people. Two airstrikes in Kfar Melki and Zefta towns left at least four people dead. Three more people lost their lives in another attack in Ain Qana and four others in the village of Habbouch. Airstrikes and artillery shelling were also reported in Dibbine, Kafr Rumman Rihan, Shebaa, Ghandouriyeh, and Kafr Tebnit. The state news agency NNA said that the Israeli army was trying to advance into Kafrchouba hills in southern Lebanon amid fierce clashes with Hezbollah fighters. Yesterday Hezbollah carried out at least 34 attacks against Israeli targets in southern Lebanon and northern Israel. More than 3,500 people have been killed by Israeli attacks in Lebanon, with nearly 15,000 injured and more than a million displaced since last October, according to Lebanese health authorities. The US, Israel’s main ally, is mediating between Tel Aviv and Beirut to reach a cease-fire deal between Hezbollah and Israel. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Saudi Arabia
Wednesday, November 20, 2024  Tehran and Riyadh have reaffirmed their commitment to the China-brokered deal and to further consolidation of relations during a meeting of the Saudi-Chinese-Iranian Joint Tripartite Committee, held yesterday in Riyadh. The three countries called for an immediate end to the Israeli campaign of death and destruction in Palestine and Lebanon, condemning its attacks and violations of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. They further called for the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid and relief to Palestine and Lebanon, warning that the continuing cycle of violence and escalation is a serious threat to the security of the region and the world. The three countries reiterated their support for a comprehensive political solution in Yemen in line with internationally recognized principles under the auspices of the United Nations. (Source: Iran Front Page - Iran)

Turkey
November 20, 2024  Turkey, Greece and Trump. Insiders in Ankara point to the historically good relationship between Trump and Erdogan. The possibility that Trump’s election signals an end to American support for the Ukrainian war effort, president-elect’s desire to find a settlement to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict makes the hope that Turkey’s participation is essential. A closer cooperation with the United States on Ukraine could deliver breakthroughs on issues such as Turkey’s eviction from the F-35 program. And a United States more focused on competition with China could lead to greater American investment in Turkey and greater bilateral trade. Television moderators have even mused that Washington may be enticed into halting military assistance to Greece on the backs of improved Turkish-American relations. Trump’s second coming, by and large, is not seen as a welcome relief when it comes to issues that matter most to the country’s commentariat. It is hard to see how Ankara and Washington will see eye to eye when it comes to the situation in the Levant. Israel’s dual campaign in Gaza and Lebanon has enflamed Turkish public opinion and united the country’s leadership in anger. Both Erdogan’s supporters and antagonists see the establishment of a new Republican administration as a critical turn for the worse for Palestinians. There is a general agreement that the new American president is more likely to aid, than hinder, ongoing military Israeli operations. Trump’s election has only elevated the likelihood that Israel would play its euphemistic Kurdish card - the possibility that Israel would utilize Kurdish militants as proxies bent upon undermining Turkey from within. The solution, some have proposed, is to go on the offensive in Syria. ’Turkey is determined to clear the Syrian border of the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party],” one insider recently declared. 'It has been decided to control our borders to a depth of 30-40 kilometers. Both military and diplomatic pillars of this are being formed. What the Mexican border is for Trump, so is the Syrian border for Erdogan.’ Turkish faith in Trump’s willingness to go along with this plan, however, is generally modest. With the announced appointment of Waltz as Trump’s national security advisor, analysts have underscored the congressman’s past support for American joint operations with Kurdish forces in Syria. Offsetting the anxiety is a genuine satisfaction with the prospects facing the United States as a global power. The true significance of Trump’s victory, many appear to agree, is that the United States appears visibly weaker. Talk of the United States descending into chaos continues despite Trump’s victory. More specific hopes expressed are that the new administration would lead Washington to conduct a campaign to destroy ’the American deep state,” which critics pose is ’alternatively made up of military officers, Democrats, and Jews, that was the force that prevented Trump from fulfilling his promise to Turkey to withdraw American troops from Syria’. Trump’s ascendency, many agree, makes conflict with China more likely. In such an armed contest, commentators tend to agree that Beijing is the most likely to succeed. The sum result of such a scenario, as one columnist recently argued, would constitute the 'death announcement of the American Empire.” Trump’s return to power, as many see it, will weaken Washington and help speed the demise of the West as a global force. It is unclear how far these opinions reflect the views of Erdogan and his advisors. There were far fewer visible signs of apprehension or worry on the night of Trump’s victory. You will find little sorrow or remorse when it comes to Vice President Harris’ electoral defeat. In congratulating his “friend” on his triumph, Erdogan expressed his belief that Turkish-American relations would improve and that “regional and global crises and wars, especially the Palestinian issue and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end.” Many Turks see conditions getting worse in their region in the months ahead. Turkey and Greece continue to carry forward their mutual commitment to improving ties with one another, mutual respect and understanding. Where talks lead to in the future remains up the air. High-level discussions are planned for December and the new year. Speaking among domestic audiences, both sides do not appear willing to compromise on much. In both Ankara and Athens, critics have portrayed talks „as pre-emptive steps towards forfeiture of territory or sovereign rights’. Should talks break down, both Greece and Turkey may be left with a United States more distracted by affairs in Asia. Even more likely is the prospect that neither state fully trusts Washington with providing mediation on issues that separate the two capitals.    In Europe, discussions appear to have already attained a frenetic pitch. Brussels and other capitals visibly fret over the possibility that the United States may withdraw its support for Ukraine or perhaps leave NATO altogether. Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister was among the first European leaders to congratulate Trump on his success, declaring his desire to deepen “the strategic partnership between our two countries.” Editors in Athens see a distinct possibility that Greek-American relations may in fact improve in the coming months and years ahead. Increased pressure from Washington on Europe’s largest and wealthier countries likely may lead smaller nations, like Greece, to seek stronger bilateral relations with the United States. A weakening European consensus not only would undermine calls for greater “strategic autonomy” among E.U. states, but place the region’s pursuit of economic growth and energy independence at risk. Optimists tend to agree that the country’s large merchant fleet could serve as a conduit for American natural gas producers seeking to ship to transatlantic customers. Greece’s Defense Ministry, together with government development agencies, could find greater avenues of cooperation with the United States. A number of factors are aiding Athens, such as the good relationship supposedly shared by Mitsotakis, Trump, and their spouses and the appointment of Rubio, with pro-Greek attitudes. There are pro-Greek sentiments found in Congress. Greek commentators have lamented the potential growth of populists in Europe, a phenomenon that potentially could jeopardize Mitsotakis’ hold on power. (Source: War on the Rocks - U.S.)
"Note: The views expressed are not those of the Naval Postgraduate School, the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government”.
by Gingeras, a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, an expert on Turkish, Balkan, and Middle East history, author of seven books.

.4 11 24 00:04

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Címkék: russia china iran nato mexico france book europe asia israel georgia turkey bulgaria greece ukraine gaza yemen donbass syria newzealand unitedkingdom palestine lebanon europeanunion kurdistan unitednations unitedstates sovietunion saudiarabia atlanticocean crimea balcans

2024. XI. 20. Turkey, Red Sea, United States, NATO, space

2024.11.20. 23:36 Eleve

.

 Asia

Turkey
Nov 20, 2024, 8:00 AM  Turkish President Erdogan has commented on Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine. "Certainly, I think that this statement by Russia is, above all, a measure taken in response to the stance taken against it concerning the use of conventional weapons. I think that this issue must be considered by NATO officials. Russia has the right and ability to protect itself and to take measures for its defense. And it was compelled to take these measures. Much like we, NATO countries, must protect ourselves and take steps to do so," Erdogan said at a press conference following the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The Turkish president also reiterated that both Russia and Ukraine are Turkey’s neighbors. "At this stage, we must protect our bilateral ties with them. I hope that we will achieve a definitive ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia as soon as possible and ensure the peace the planet has been eagerly awaiting," Erdogan added. Kremlin Spokesman Peskov said that the revised nuclear doctrine provides for a nuclear response if Ukraine uses Western non-nuclear missiles against Russia. Earlier, the Kremlin official emphasized that the West’s decision to use long-range missiles marked 'a qualitatively new phase' of tensions. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran

Red Sea

Nov 20, 2024  Yesterday, a significant strike was launched by the Yemeni Ansarullah Coalition, known as the Houthis, against the Turkish 183-meter Anadolu S cargo vessel. With regional tensions continuing to rise, and the Houthis showing no signs of halting their attacks on Israeli-linked vessels, the situation in the Red Sea remains fraught with uncertainty. (Source: BulgarianMilitary)

North America

United States
November 20, 2024  "It doesn’t matter how many long-range missiles we give to Ukraine. Those alone will not change any dynamic on the battlefield - any more than the previous entry of Western tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces, air defense weapons, HIMARS systems, or even the vaunted F16s. The war is lost for Kyiv. Period. Continuing to ignore reality - and listen to generals is certain to increase the ultimate cost of losing the war for Ukraine. What Biden is doing now, however, is worse. He is risking an expansion of the war, potentially drawing the United States into direct conflict with Russia. Russia has been unambiguous in its declarations that the introduction of U.S. or Western long-range missiles into the war against Russia would represent the direct engagement of the West against Russia and force a 'response.' According to news reports, such attacks have now been made, and that could be the reason the United States evacuated its embassy this morning, fearing Russia may act on its threat. It is foolhardy to the highest order to risk the expansion of the war by allowing our long-range weapons to be used against Russia, especially because there is no military upside for doing so. Rather, it constitutes a major strategic risk of getting sucked into a war. Trump was, in part, elected by the American people because he vowed to end the war in Ukraine. By taking this pointless risk two months before the end of his term, Biden could wreck any chance Trump might have to achieve peace. Biden’s staunchest supporters should urgently call for him to stop this inflammatory drive before it's too late. The security of our country should be the priority for all Americans." (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Davis, the Senior Fellow & Military Expert for Defense Priorities, a retired Army Lt.Col.

20 November 2024  The US has been criticised by humanitarian organisations for deciding to supply Ukraine with landmines. The approval from Washington is an attempt to slow down Russian troops, who have been steadily advancing into Ukraine's east in recent months. US Defence Secretary Austin said they made their decision because of how Russia had changed its tactics on the battlefield - sending in troops first rather than mechanised forces. The International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) condemned the US decision "in the strongest possible terms". 'These horrific, indiscriminate weapons were banned by the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty given the devastating impact they have on civilians' lives and livelihoods,' the statement from the ICBL's director, Gabelnick, said. Under the treaty, "there are no circumstances under which Ukraine as a state party may acquire, stockpile or use them", she added. The use of landmines is not illegal under international law, but more than 160 nations have signed the Mine Ban Treaty which commits to banning the production, use and stockpiling of anti-personnel mines. Ukraine is a signatory to this treaty, but after Russia's occupation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine informed fellow signatories that its application of the treaty in the occupied areas would be is limited and is 'not guaranteed'. Anti-personnel landmines are explosives which are often concealed on the ground and designed to detonate when people step over or near them. Russian forces have been using landmines widely in Ukraine - since it launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has deployed landmines to both defend their positions and slow down the Ukrainians. Clearing land that has been mined can take a long period of time. The process is also costly, with the World Bank reporting last year that demining Ukraine would cost $37.4bn. Washington officials say the mines will be delivered soon and would be used on Ukraine's territory, but 'away from densely-populated areas'. Mr Austin said the US devices after some days lose charge and can no longer detonate. According to its statement, the Halo Trust, the world's largest landmine clearing charity said Ukraine has been reclassified this month as ’massively contaminated’ with landmines, and some of the charity's estimates suggest they are present in up to 40% of the country - more than two million landmines have been laid in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war in 2022. The provision of anti-personnel land mines is the latest move by the outgoing US administration before President-elect Trump is inaugurated on 20 January. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

Nov 20, 2024 14:26 IST  After a Trump win and in the transition period, Biden has done something that could alter the course of history. He handed over long-range US-made missiles to Ukraine and allowed their use to hit targets deep inside Russia. Without losing any moment, Ukraine attacked Russia with six of these missiles yesterday. This could well lead to the much-feared World War III. What everyone is asking is whether Biden did this to disrupt the transition. The Ukraine-Russia War saw its 1,000th day on November 19. Many in the US think that Biden is leaving behind a chaos which would be difficult for Trump to manage. Some are even calling it 'Biden's attempt to plunge US into war'. "Only Congress can declare war, but the Biden admin is doing everything it can in its final days to provoke war with Russia. Congress must ask itself what can be done to prevent this admin from escalating its proxy war with Russia into a direct nuclear conflict. Biden is trying to plunge us into WW3," said Representative Taylor Greene. This also pushes the world closer to a nuclear war. To many, this last-minute approval by Biden looks like an attempt by the US President to cling onto power. The fear of an imminent escalation in war that could first impact Nato countries in Russia's proximity, has made Sweden, Finland and Denmark issue emergency guidelines, asking citizens to stock up on food and water. Biden's approval of missile use has dangerously escalated the war and left many asking if this was a coup against the incoming President. (Source: India Today)

20/11/2024 - 09:55  Yesterday US President-elect Trump nominated the former head of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) McMahon to lead US education department which he has pledged to abolish when he returns to the White House. “We will ultimately eliminate the federal Department of Education,” he said in September during a rally in Wisconsin. McMahon, a major donor to Trump's presidential campaign, is a co-chair of Trump’s transition team tasked with filling some 4,000 positions in the government ahead of his return to the White House in January. Since 2021, she has chaired the Center For The American Worker at the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute. In 2017, she was confirmed as the head of the Small Business Administration, which is responsible for supporting America’s millions of small businesses, which employ around half the country’s private-sector workforce. At the culmination of a staged feud, Trump once body-slammed her husband, legendary wrestling promoter Vince, and shaved his head in the middle of a wrestling ring on live television. (Source: France24 / AFP – France)

 NATO

November 20, 2024 2:51 AM  In Finland's Arctic Lapland some 3,600 soldiers from the United States, Sweden, the United Kingdom, France and other NATO members conduct live fire drills throughout November. They are part of NATO's largest artillery exercise ever held in Europe, dubbed Dynamic Front 25, which also includes drills in Estonia, Germany, Romania and Poland involving a total of around 5,000 soldiers. The exercises are the first large-scale maneuvers held in Finland since the Nordic country joining NATO brought "280,000 soldiers to NATO's northern flank. In a region where temperatures typically drop to below minus 20 degrees Celsius during winter months, the Finnish defense forces are known for being well-trained and equipped for harsh winter conditions. The hilly Rovajarvi area, measuring more than 1,000 square kilometers, it is Europe's largest firing range and training area, and allies come to rehearse in its difficult conditions. (Source: Voice of America - U.S. / Agence France-Presse – France)

Space

November 20, 2024 2:30 AM  Musk's SpaceX launched its giant Starship rocket to space from SpaceX's sprawling rocket development site in Boca Chica, Texas. on Nov 19. US President-elect Trump watched from the company's rocket facilities. The roughly 122m-tall rocket system, designed to land astronauts on the moon and ferry crews to Mars, lifted off at 4pm Central time (0600 SGT). The rocket's 71m-tall first stage booster, called Super Heavy, detached from its second stage, Starship, at roughly 62 km in altitude, sending the craft into space. Super Heavy unexpectedly splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico instead of returning land, where it was expected to fall into large mechanical arms attached to the tower it launched from. A live stream separate from SpaceX's and hosted by space blogger Everyday Astronaut showed the Super Heavy booster exploding into a massive fireball on the Gulf horizon after splashing down. Starship in October demonstrated the novel catch-landing method for the first time, achieving a key milestone in its reusable design. In space, Starship travelled around Earth for a daytime splashdown in the Indian Ocean roughly an hour later. It reignited one of its onboard engines in space for the first time, an early test of its maneuverability in space that SpaceX had tried but failed to do in past flights. Nasa chief Nelson, who is expected to leave his role once Trump takes office in January, congratulated SpaceX in a post on X and said Starship's in-space engine reignition marked major progress towards orbital flight. (Source: AsiaOne – Singapore)

4 11 20 .23:37

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2024. XI. 18. France, Germany, Russia, Lebanon, Eurasia, United States

2024.11.20. 00:15 Eleve

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Europe

France
November 18, 2024  'Ukrainian forces are preparing a potential 'counterattack' in the Kursk region'. The Ukrainians could soon be bolstered by thousands of soldiers who had recently completed training in France with light battle tanks and artillery. The French task force Champagne oversaw the training of more than 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers who will soon return to the frontlines. They'll be armed with 18 AMX 10 light tanks, 18 mobile Caesar artillery pieces, and 128 armored troop carriers. The newly formed Ukrainian brigade was fittingly named 'Anne of Kyiv' to honor the former Kyiv princess who became Queen of France after marrying King Henry I. The AMX-10 RC has been employed with French cavalry units since the early 1980s. A total of 457 were produced, and around 240 are reported to be in service with the French Army – while others were sold to Morocco and Qatar. The vehicles are armed with a 105mm F2 BK MECA L/47 main gun, and have been deployed in a reconnaissance role in contested environments and for fire support. A crew of four operates the tank destroyer, which first saw service in the 1980s Western Sahara War. It was later employed in the 1991 Gulf War, and the War in Afghanistan, as well as in recent French military operations in Mali. (Source: The National Interest)

Germany
18.11.2024 
Germany is to deliver 4,000 strike drones to Ukraine, the daily Bild newspaper reported today. Kyiv is expected to receive the drones within the next few weeks. German Defense Minister Pistorius announced in June that he would support Ukraine with additional systems in its war with Russia. The drones will reportedly have a significantly higher range than the Ukrainian kamikaze drones and could also be deployed against tanks and Russian military positions. Internally, the drones are also referred to as “Mini-Taurus” in reference to the German cruise missile. Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains opposed to delivery of long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, according to deputy government spokesperson Buchner. The Taurus missiles well-known for successfully targeting objects including bridges, or hard and deeply buried targets such as command bunkers could potentially reach the Russian capital Moscow with a range exceeding 500 kilometers. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

November 18, 2024, Monday // 10:41  Habeck, the Vice Chancellor of Germany, received overwhelming support for his candidacy for chancellor, securing 96.48% of votes at the Green Party congress in Würzburg. Alongside Foreign Minister Baerbock, he will lead the Green Party's campaign for the ’upcoming February elections’. In a recent interview, Habeck discussed his stance on sending weapons to Ukraine, confirming that if he were to become chancellor, ’he would approve the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles’. As Germany's Minister of the Economy, he noted that decisions on arms supplies were among the most challenging he has faced in his career. Despite Habeck's support for sending such missiles, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has firmly opposed the idea. Scholz has expressed concerns that supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine could potentially allow the country to strike targets in Moscow, escalating the conflict further. (Source: Novinite – Bulgaria)

Russia
Monday 18 November 2024 21:25 GMT  Biden’s decision to let Ukraine strike targets inside Russia with US-made long-range missiles is an ’escalation’ of the conflict, Moscow said yesterday as it warned use of the weapons would trigger a ’tangible’ response. 'It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to … continue pouring oil on the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict,' Putin’s spokesperson Peskov said. Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta accused Mr Biden of one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration… risking catastrophic consequences. Biden’s move – previously ruled out over fears of bringing about a direct confrontation between Russia and Nato – put fresh pressure on Britain to follow suit with UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. Keir Starmer at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro did not rule out a change, saying: ’We need to double down … to make sure Ukraine has what is necessary for as long as necessary, because we cannot allow Putin to win this war.’ Defence minister Eagle also hinted at a shift over weapons, telling MPs: “We intend to align with our allies in making sure that Ukraine can make use of the capabilities that’s been offered by those who have committed support to that country in its fight.” Zelensky has been lobbying Western allies for months for permission to strike targets in Russian territory, arguing he cannot hit the bases Mr Putin is using to launch air attacks against his country. Allies of the president-elect condemned the decision. Grenell, Mr Trump’s former director of national intelligence, accused Biden of escalating the wars before he leaves office and said that allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles at Russia amounted to launching a whole new war. Hungary’s foreign minister Szijjártó said it was incredibly dangerous. (Source: The Independent – United Kingdom)

November 18, 2024 10:13 IST  The Russian MPs have threatened that ’Ukraine would be in ruins in the morning’ after reports of Biden's authorisation. Hours after reports emerged that US President Biden has authorised Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied ballistic missiles for attacks inside Russia, lawmakers in Moscow have reacted to the decision, stating this could escalate the conflict in Ukraine, leading to World War Three. The Russian lawmakers reacted that Biden's policy change meant that Ukrainian ruin was imminent. Klishas, a senior member of Russia's upper chamber of parliament, took to Telegram to post that the West has ’decided on such a level of escalation that it could end with the Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning.’ Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house's international affairs committee, told TASS agency that Moscow's response will be immediate. ’This is a very big step towards the start of World War Three,’ the agency quoted Dzhabarov as saying. Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma lower house's foreign affairs committee, too said that the move could invite a tougher response. Zelenskyy has not yet confirmed the NYT report on Biden's policy change but hinted in vague terms that ’the number of missiles used to strike Russia’ is the more important fact than the authorisation. It is expected that the Ukrainians could use the ATACMS missiles to hit Russian ’and North Korean’ troop concentrations in Kursk. These troops are deployed by Russia so that it can retake the land from Ukraine before entering any negotiations. If Russia succeeds in retaking Kursks, Ukraine would have nothing in hand to trade for. (Source: The Week - India)

Asia

Lebanon
18.11.2024  At least 26 people
were killed and dozens injured as Israel launched fresh airstrikes in southern Lebanon today. Israeli fighter jets conducted 10 airstrikes in the city of Nabatieh, leaving eight people dead and injuring several others. Six medics were also killed in an airstrike on a center of the Hezbollah-run Islamic Health Authority in the town of Arab Salim. One more person was killed in another attack in the Bent Jbeil district. Israeli warplanes also launched airstrikes in several areas near Tyre, killing 11 people and injuring 48 others. More than 3,400 people have been killed, over 14,600 injured and more than 1 million displaced by Israeli attacks since last October, according to Lebanese health authorities. Tel Aviv expanded the conflict by launching a ground assault into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1 this year. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Eurasia

November 18, 2024, 11:24 AM  An important dynamic in an already complicated conflict is the increasing involvement of East Asian powers in a European war. Besides ’the recent arrival of at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers on the Russian side’, the evolving roles of China, Japan, and South Korea raise the question of whether a widening proxy war is being fought in Ukraine. Russia’s war against Ukraine has all the trappings of a proxy war - when two countries fight each other indirectly - by supporting warring participants in a third country. The war is setting a new precedent for Indo-Pacific nations to compete for their interests on the global stage. Their participation adds an element of uncertainty and potential escalation to the conflict in Ukraine.The security challenges in East Asia have, in part, been exported to Europe. The Kremlin has clearly articulated its view that Ukraine has no agency as an independent state ’and that the target of its invasion is the West’ - specifically, the United States. Members of NATO and several other Western-aligned countries, in turn, are supporting Ukraine with weapons deliveries. The West’s intention may be Ukraine’s defense, but its efforts are necessarily directed at Russia. By forcing Putin to fail in his goal of subjugating Ukraine, Western support for Ukraine undermines Russia. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin suggested as much, admitting that “we want to see Russia weakened.” Beijing, Pyongyang, Seoul, and Tokyo are supporting their respective partners on European soil in order to wage a much broader struggle over the future of the international order. This, in turn, indicates the extent to which the war has become global - and has set a new precedent for how Asian nations compete for their interests in other parts of the world. Despite China refraining from overtly providing Russia with weapons, it has worked to ensure Moscow’s ability to continue its war. Not only has it opposed Western sanctions, but it has also used its diplomatic connections in the global south to prevent a broader condemnation of Russia. According to U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, China now supplies Russia with about 90 percent of its microelectronics imports and 70 percent of machine tool imports. According to customs data, Beijing ships more than $300 million worth of dual-use goods to Russia every month. China this year participated in military exercises in Belarus, only a few miles from the Polish border. North Korea was one of only five countries that voted against the U.N. General Assembly resolution opposing Russia’s aggression. Last week Pyongyang ratified a military alliance that pledges either country to aid the other in case of attack. North Korea has provided Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles. The most escalatory step ’occurred last month, when North Korea sent about 10,000 troops to Russia’, some of whom are now reported to be fighting the Ukrainians in Russia’s Kursk region. Both Beijing and Pyongyang have an overarching strategic interest in seeing Moscow prevail. Chinese President Xi and North Korean leader Kim see Putin as an ally in a global struggle against the West, which makes supporting his war in Ukraine a strategic imperative. Both share Russia’s vision of a post-Western world order, in which the United States and its allies are weakened. Early on, Japan coordinated sanctions against Russia with Western partners. Tokyo also provides to Ukraine nonkinetic military equipment - including vehicles, flak jackets, and reconnaissance drones - as well as some $12 billion in other aid, making Tokyo one of Kyiv’s top bilateral donors. Japan also revised its restrictions on weapons exports, enabling the transfer of Japanese-manufactured Patriot missiles to the United States, thereby helping to ensure U.S. stockpiles remain stable even as some of this equipment is sent to help Ukraine. Diplomatically, during Japan’s 2023 G-7 presidency, then-Prime Minister Kishida extended invitations to various countries from the global south so that President Zelensky could engage with their representatives at the group’s May summit. South Korea has provided Ukraine substantial humanitarian aid and other nonlethal support, such as mine-clearing equipment, body armor, and helmets. It has also joined in economic sanctions against Moscow. And like Japan, it has replenished U.S. weapons stocks, supplying the United States with artillery shells and thereby freeing up Washington’s ability to send shells to Ukraine. Similarly, South Korea has greatly increased defense exports to Poland, part of which backfilled the latter’s deliveries to Ukraine in the early days of the war. Following the news of North Korean troops arriving in Russia, Seoul is now floating the idea of directly supplying Kyiv with defensive and offensive weapons. Proxy war motivations hold for Tokyo and Seoul. Kishida famously warned, “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” Echoing Kishida, South Korean President Yoon told last year that “the war in Ukraine has reminded us all that a security crisis in one particular region can have a global impact.” Granted, the level of support currently from the East Asian powers will likely be a function of how committed the United States and Russia remain in the months and years ahead. Trump’s return to the White House could result in changes on the battlefield - but not necessarily in the nature of Indo-Pacific involvement. If he could end the war in a day - and both sides accept the outcome - then the proxy war ends. If he cannot and the conflict continues in some manner, so does the proxy war, but the level of commitment may change. In a situation where the United States stops supporting Ukraine but European NATO members step up, it is likely that Japan and South Korea would also continue their support which could be reduced, since some of their activities have come as a request by their U.S. ally. It is hard to see China and North Korea reducing their involvement, given that their support could help Russia succeed and advance their strategic goal of destroying the existing order. Changes in the degree of U.S. involvement under a second Trump administration will not alter the fundamental proxy war constellation: All four East Asian powers are supporting a third party to undermine their competitor’s ability to undermine their national interests. (Source: Foreign Policy – U.S.)
by Hornung, the Japan lead in the National Security Research Division at the RAND Corporation and an adjunct professor in the Asian Studies Program at Georgetown University.

North America

United States
(18 November 2024) 
Trump has campaigned on a promise to end the US involvement in wars and instead use taxpayers' money to improve Americans' lives. When the next president takes office, he can make his own decisions, State Department spokesman Miller said. ’We will use every day of our term to pursue policy interests that we believe are in the interests of the American people’. Biden's apparent green light for Ukraine at the weekend to ditch a long-standing red line to strike Russia with US-made long-range missiles has caused consternation among Trump's allies. Trump has always seen himself as a dealmaker and will not want Biden to take any such credit. People close to him have condemned the move as dangerous escalation. His son, Trump Jr, was among the first Republicans to respond. ’The military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War Three going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives," he said. Senator Vance, who will be Trump's vice-president, has regularly objected to providing arms to Ukraine. He argued that the US lacks the manufacturing capacity to continue providing weapons like the missile systems that Kyiv will use to strike within Russia. Polls suggest a large number of Republicans want US support for Ukraine to stop - 62% told a poll by Pew Research the US had no responsibility to support the country against Russia. The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank, has published a map of 225 Russian military installations within range of ATACMS. The Russian leader will be fully aware of the magnitude of the threat of Western-supplied long-range missiles. ’Ukraine has had ATACMS as well as UK and French Storm Shadow missiles of similar range for some time’, though the numbers are not known. But it has not been allowed to use them inside Russia. Former US envoy to Ukraine, Volker, said Biden's decision would enable Ukraine to go after airfields, the ammunition depots and the fuels supplies, logistics that Russia has, which right now are in a sanctuary zone in Russia. 'Biden's decision has not been formally confirmed and it may never be’. France and the UK are expected to follow the US lead and issue the same authorisation to Ukraine. The move also follows a barrage of Russian attacks: One strike on Odesa today killed 10 people, including seven policemen, and injured 47 others. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

November 18, 2024 2:45 pm (EST)  With little more than two months left in office, President Biden reportedly allowed the use of American-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) inside Russia. This comes a little more than a week after another post-election decision to allow a small number of U.S. defense contractors to fix U.S.-made weapons systems inside Ukraine, rather than forcing Ukrainians to take their weapons to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries for repair. Biden has given Ukrainians access to almost all the weapons they have asked for - including Abrams heavy tanks, Bradley armored fighting vehicles, Patriot air-defense batteries, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and, most recently, F-16 fighter jets. Ukraine has crossed one supposed Russian red line after another - including repeatedly deploying drones to bomb Moscow and sending Ukrainian ground forces to occupy part of Russia’s Kursk province in August 2024. Ukraine now finds itself on the defensive and losing ground in the eastern Donbas region at the fastest rate since 2022. Russian troops are inching toward the key city of Pokrovsk, a major logistics and transportation hub that anchors the Ukrainian defense of the east. Russia has ramped up recruiting to keep up with its losses. Now its forces have been augmented by 10,000 North Korean troops as part of an offensive meant to drive the Ukrainians from the Russian Kursk region. ’It is the involvement of the North Koreans that evidently prompted Biden to reconsider his prohibition on Ukraine using ATACMS with a range of 190 miles against targets inside Russia’. (Some estimates put the total number possessed by Kyiv at less than fifty.) Biden had already allowed the Ukrainians to deploy HIMARS, with a range of fifty miles, ’inside Russia to defend Kharkiv’. ’It is possible that, following the U.S. decision, Britain and France could allow Ukraine to similarly utilize their SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles’.The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, has identified hundreds of significant Russian military targets within 190 miles of the border with Ukraine. These now reportedly include the bases where North Korean troops have been preparing for their attacks on Ukrainian positions. Bloomberg has reported that Pyongyang could send around 100,000 more troops. The North Korean troop contributions can reduce the pressure on Putin to stage unpopular, involuntary call-ups of Russian reservists. ’Biden’s decision to extend ATACMS authority can help increase the pressure on Putin to negotiate’. Time could be running out for U.S. aid to Ukraine. President-Elect Trump takes office on January 20. He has pledged to end the war within a day, without spelling out how he could accomplish this feat. Many in Trump’s camp appear eager to cut off aid to Ukraine.      ’How Ukraine is tapping the U.S. Arsenal? U.S. security assistance between January 20, 2020, and October 15, 2024:      Infantry arms and equipment: 10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems; 120,000 other anti-armor systems and munitions; 3,000 Stinger anti-aircraft systems; 9,000 TOW missiles; 50,000 grenade launchers and small arms; 400 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades; 100,000 sets of body armor and helmets; Night-vision devices, surveillance systems, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders; C-4 and other explosives; Explosive-ordnance-disposal equipment; M18A1 Claymore mines; Anti-armor mines; Mine-clearing equipment; Obstacle-emplacement equipment; Medical supplies; Field equipment, cold-weather gear, generators, and spare parts; Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear protective equipment; 27 armored bridging systems; Rocket launchers and ammunition; 25mm ammunition; Counter–air defense capability.    Air defense: 3 Patriot air defense batteries and munitions; 12 NASAM systems; Avenger air defense systems; HAWK air defense systems and munitions; Laser-guided rocket systems; AIM-7 missiles; RIM-7 missiles; AIM-9M missiles; Antiaircraft guns and ammunition; Equipment to integrate with and sustain Ukraine’s systems and to protect critical infrastructure; VAMPIRE anti-drone systems and munitions; Anti-drone gun trucks and ammunition; Anti-drone laser-guided rocket systems; Air defense systems components; Other anti-drone equipment.    Air-to-ground missiles: High-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARMs); Precision aerial munitions; 6,000 Zuni aircraft rockets (can function as air defense); 20,000 Hydra-70 aircraft rockets.    Manned aircraft: 20 Mi-17 helicopters.    Artillery: 200 155mm Howitzers and 3 million rounds, including 7,000 precision-guided rounds and 60,000 anti-armor mine rounds; 72 105mm Howitzers and 800,000 rounds; 10,000 203mm rounds, 400,000 152mm rounds; 40,000 130mm rounds, and 40,000 122mm rounds; 200 mortar systems; 600,000 mortar rounds; 40 HIMAR systems; 60,000 122mm Grad rockets; Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb launchers and ammunition; Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) Explosive and combat drones: Switchblade drones; Phoenix Ghost drones; ALTIUS-600 drones (can also be used for surveillance); Munitions.    Surveillance drones: ScanEagle drones; Puma drones; JUMP 20 drones; CyberLux K8 drones; Penguin drones (can also be used as combat drone); Black Hornet drones.    Tanks and armored carriers: 300 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles; 4 Bradley Fire Support Team vehicles; 31 Abrams tanks; 45 T-72B tanks (via the Czech Republic); 189 Stryker armored personnel carriers; 800 M113 armored personnel carriers; 400 M1117 armored security vehicles; 300 armored medical-treatment vehicles; 1,000 MRAP vehicles; 125mm, 120mm, and 105mm tank ammunition.    Coastal defense: 2 Harpoon coastal defense systems; 100 coastal and riverine patrol boats; Unmanned coastal defense vessels; Port and harbor security equipment.    Radar and communications: 4 satellite communications antennas; 2 radars for drones; 21 air surveillance radars; 100 counter-artillery and counter-; mortar radars; 50 multi-mission radars; Tactical secure communications systems; Electronic warfare and counter–electronic warfare equipment; 4 SATCOM antennas; SATCOM terminals and services.   Ground support vehicles: 5,000 Humvees; 1,153 tactical vehicles; 200 light tactical vehicles; 80 trucks; 200 trailers; 10 command-post vehicles; 30 ammunition-support vehicles; 6 armored utility trucks; 20 logistics-support vehicles; 239 fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers; 58 water trailers.    Satellite services: Commercial satellite imagery services Note: Some numbers are approximations. Sources: U.S. Department of Defense; CFR research’. (Source: Council on Foreign Relations - U.S.)
by Boot

November 18, 2024  'It is a start'.  It is estimated that there are several hundred high-value military targets, such as bases, command and control centers, air defense systems, logistical hubs, ammunition dumps, and transportation infrastructure, inside Russia and within easy reach of Ukraine’s Western long-range weaponry. 'ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will benefit from any partial sanctuary if Western states continue to impose restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself and that the US should allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate military targets within Russia's operational and deep-rear within range of US-provided weapons – not just those in Kursk Oblast,' the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict. According to Le Figaro, European officials are debating on whether to follow the U.S. and allow the Storm Shadow (UK) and SCALP-EG (France) to be used against targets inside Russia. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)

November 18, 2024  American „defense” planning in the shadow of protracted war - what it would take to deter or defeat a Chinese assault on Taiwan? Beijing, it seems, has a strong preference for a short, sharp war that leverages its geographic proximity to the island and exploits Washington’s remoteness from the scene. Washington, therefore, must be able to fight a short, sharp war of its own to stop Beijing from executing a military fait accompli. But both sides cannot achieve rapid decisive battle. The historical record suggests that although many militaries plan to win big and win quickly, great-power conflicts are often protracted affairs characterized by gradual attrition. The extent that the United States is beginning to address these concerns, it is focused on mobilizing its defense-industrial base to carry out a lengthy fight if its initial campaign falls short of expectations. A strategy that calls for smashing Chinese military forces in and around the Taiwan Strait might seem like it offers a straight line to victory, but it could leave the United States poorly positioned for a long fight. Preparing for a long fight, choices are deeply at odds with the contemporary American way of war, which emphasizes massing forces, responding quickly, and destroying the adversary’s frontline military forces in a limited conflict. That seems to leave for Washington one course of action: a defensively oriented, highly lethal denial campaign that would damage or destroy enough enemy forces to prevent China from gaining control over Taiwan in the first place. In short, if United States does not react quickly and forcefully, and if it does not inflict enormous losses on its opponent, Taiwan could fall, particularly as the military balance between the island and the mainland shifts further and further in the latter’s favor. Decisive battle is historically rare, especially if both antagonists are unwilling or unable to inflict the level of destruction necessary to actually knock their opponent down for the count. Given that the United States and China appear to be preparing for limited war (not regime change or unconditional surrender), and have designed their kinetic forces for tailored attacks on military targets (not widespread attacks on war-related industry), a prospective conflict between them is unlikely to be the exception that proves the rule. The theory of victory underpinning a successful campaign of denial does not explain how the destruction of China’s air and maritime forces would be anything other than the first round of a longer fight against a revanchist rival whose military-industrial capacity would remain untouched. And it is equally unlikely that Beijing could or would do enough damage to prevent the United States from rearming and reattacking eventually. A collision between the United States and China would most likely be a drawn-out affair in which neither side is able to gain a decisive advantage quickly, or in which one side gains a temporary advantage that turns out to be the beginning of a much longer fight. That could lead to one of several possible scenarios: of protracted wars over the disposition of Taiwan or a protracted war between the United States and China in which Taiwan, whatever its status, becomes a secondary consideration. The strategic demands associated with confronting multiple rivals in multiple regions exert a heavy influence on defense planners. If the United States no longer has the ability to successfully fight two wars at once, then keeping adversaries in a box might require winning the first war big and winning it fast, so that potential opportunists will remain on guard and on the sidelines. The tenets of rapid decisive battle, which have influenced American military planning for decades and continue to shape how the U.S. military manages the China problem, are directly at odds with the sources of success in a long war. The first principle of protracted war is to survive the initial fight. The quest for rapid decisive battle often goes hand-in-hand with the risk of decisive losses. Success means degrading the sources of an opponent’s military power, including its economic and military-industrial capacity, both at home and abroad. This clashes with the imperative to target frontline forces, especially within a small geographic box like the Taiwan Strait, in pursuit of decisive battle against an opposing military alone. The United States appears to be pursuing a strategy, and designing a force, for a low probability scenario: an invasion of Taiwan that can be halted quickly at the point of attack, and at an acceptable cost, through the destruction of adversary frontline units. This fits well with the American military’s preference for a swift response, overwhelming force, and escalation management, even when it does not play to American strengths. By putting its forces at risk and keeping coercive options off the table, however, those decisions could leave Washington disadvantaged in the type of scenario it is more likely to confront, namely an indecisive conflict that drags on over time and extends far beyond the narrow confines of the Taiwan Strait. Undermining an adversary’s geopolitical and economic position is just as important in protracted war as destroying its frontline forces. For decades, defense officials have sought to keep conflicts geographically constrained and minimize the damage inflicted on non-military targets, even though global force projection - including the ability to strike any target, anywhere in the world - remains an enduring American military advantage. That arguably has left the U.S. military ill-prepared and ill-equipped to degrade a rival’s economic and industrial capacity in a long war. Force preservation becomes increasingly important in protracted war. Washington cannot, then, rush its all of its most valuable assets to the rescue of Taiwan. Policymakers need to consider the range of plausible outcomes that exist in between the unlikely extremes of a quick Chinese capture of Taiwan and a quick U.S. defeat of China, and determine which of those outcomes are actually acceptable. A genuine victory in the most likely conflict scenario - a prolonged, grinding fight - looks quite different from current theories of victory. It leverages different advantages than the current American way of war and it requires far more than a revitalization of the defense-industrial base. (Source: War on the Rocks – U.S.)
by Montgomery, a senior fellow and the director of research and studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He previously served as special advisor to the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff;
Ouellet, a researcher at the Institute for Defense Analyses. He previously served as vice director for Joint Force.

.4 11 19 23:14

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Címkék: russia india hungary taiwan japan china nato france europe asia mali israel turkey bulgaria poland ukraine afghanistan donbass belarus unitedkingdom lebanon persiangulf unitednations unitedstates northkorea southkorea indianocean eurasia pacificocean northamerica taiwanstraits westernsahara

2024. XI. 17. Russia, Vatican, Iran, United States

2024.11.19. 23:53 Eleve

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Europe

Russia
Sunday 17 November 2024 10:06 GMT  According to a daily report
released by Russia‘s Ministry of Defense, Russian troops took control of two settlements in Donetsk and inflicted damage on Ukraine’s energy facilities, a military airfield and production workshops for unmanned aerial vehicles. Blasts were heard across Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities early today morning, in what Ukrainian officials have described as the biggest missile attack since August. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

Vatican
November 17, 2024 3:28 pm CET  “According to some experts, what is happening in Gaza has the characteristics of a genocide,' the pope says, according to excerpts of the book titled “Hope Never Disappoints. Pilgrims Towards a Better World” written by Alcaide based on interviews with Francis and published by Italian daily La Stampa today. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Asia

Iran
November 17, 2024 10:24 IST  On September 26, Tehran has elected Khamenei's second son Mojtaba as the next head of the country, Israeli media Ynet News quoted Iran International, a Persian media outlet with ties to Iranian regime opponents. The selection was held after the 60 members of Iran's Assembly of Experts convened on Khamenei's demand. This secretive meeting was called without prior notice, deliberated and finally decided to unanimously select Mojtaba as the successor. The members were told to keep the meeting very secret, fearing public protests. The report added that as Khamenei is battling a serious health condition, he may abdicate soon to ensure a smooth transition. Electing the successor became a priority after the assassination of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah and Hamas chief Haniyeh in Tehran which has prompted Khamenei to isolate himself for protection with only a handful of loyalists given access to him. His son Mojtaba is reportedly the only individual he can trust and influence as a future leader. Mojtaba was given the title of ayatollah two years back, thereby giving him the most important constitutional prerequisite for the Supreme Leader role. (Source: The Week – India)

North America

United States
(Sunday), November 17, 2024 5:45 PM  After he won this year's presidential election, Trump wasted no time and called Zelensky and Putin within the first few days. Zelensky recently told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that Trump's return to office makes it certain that the war will end sooner. ’Critics warn that a rushed settlement of the war could favor Putin’. The Biden administration has pledged to continue strengthening U.S. military support for Ukraine in the final months of his administration, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken confirmed Wednesday. ’We will continue to shore up everything we're doing for Ukraine to make sure that it can effectively defend itself against this Russian aggression,’ Blinken told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels, prior to meetings with allied envoys and Ukrainian officials. Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, supporters of President-elect Trump took to social media today to react to President Biden’s reported authorization of Ukraine to use U.S. ATACMS rockets to launch strikes against Russian territory, to accuse Biden of escalating the conflict with just months left in office and highlighting Trump's campaign promise to end the conflict. ’"On his way out of office, Biden is dangerously trying to start WWIII by authorizing Ukraine the use of U.S. long range missiles into Russia. The American people gave a mandate on Nov 5th against these exact America last decisions and do NOT want to fund or fight foreign wars. We want to fix our own problems. Enough of this, it must stop," Representative Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican and staunch Trump supporter, condemned Biden writing on X. Venture capitalist Sacks also posted on X. "President Trump won a clear mandate to end the war in Ukraine. So what does Biden do in his final two months in office? Massively escalate it. Is his goal to hand Trump the worst situation possible?’ he wrote. Responding to Senator Lee, a Utah Republican, who wrote on X that ’Libs love war’ and ’War facilitates bigger government,’ billionaire Musk retweeted Lee's post with the message, "True." Trump Jr. wrote on X: ’The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives. Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be damned!!! Imbeciles!" Turning Point USA founder Kirk wrote on X, ’Biden is trying to start World War 3. This is pathological and totally insane. US weaponry should NOT be used to fire into the interior of Russia! Imagine if Russia supplied missiles to fire into America!’ Russian media reported that Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova told RBC TV that Russian President Putin has already spoken on what he thinks about potential strikes inside Russia with U.S. long-range weapons. Referring to remarks made on September 12, Putin said that the potential decision to use Western long-range missiles against Russia would be viewed as the United States' and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries' direct participation in the war, which he said would significantly change ’the very nature of the conflict.’ (Source: The Herald - Scotland / Newsweek - U.S.)

November 17, 2024 8:46 PM GMT+1.  Biden allows Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia. Kyiv's other allies have been supplying weapons but with restrictions on how and when they can be used inside Russia, out of concern such strikes could prompt retaliation that draws NATO countries into the war or provokes a nuclear conflict. Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, the sources said today. The move comes two months before President-elect Trump takes office on Jan. 20 and follows months of pleas by Zelenskiy to allow Ukraine's military to use U.S. weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border. One of Trump's closest foreign policy advisers, Grenell, criticized the decision. 'Escalating the wars before he leaves office,' Grenell said, in an X post responding to the news. Since Trump's Nov. 5 victory, senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly said they would use the remaining time to ensure Ukraine can fight effectively next year or negotiate peace with Russia from a 'position of strength'. Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said 'it had clashed with some of North Korean troops deployed to Kursk'. Ukraine's first deep strikes are likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 306 km, according to the sources. Russia has warned that it would see a move to loosen the limits on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons as a major escalation. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
By Stone and Pamuk. Pamuk is a senior foreign policy correspondent based in Washington DC. During her 20 years with Reuters she covered the U.S. State Department, regularly traveling with U.S. Secretary of State. She holds a BA in International Relations and an MA on European Union studies.

17.11.2024  US President-elect Trump announced yesterday that Wright will join his administration as energy secretary and become a member of the newly-formed Council of National Energy. Wright, a prominent figure in the energy sector, has experience in the nuclear, solar, geothermal and oil and gas industries. Trump highlighted Wright’s role in advancing American energy independence, ’global energy market transformation, particularly through contributions to the shale revolution’ and contribution to what Trump referred to as a “new golden age of American prosperity and global peace.’ The Council of National Energy will oversee all departments and agencies related to energy production, distribution and regulation. It aims to achieve US energy ’dominance’ by reducing regulatory obstacles and prioritizing innovation. Trump said Wright would work closely with Burgum, his choice for interior secretary, to enhance energy independence and foster international partnerships to address global energy needs. With a background in mechanical engineering from MIT, Wright, the founder and chairman of Liberty Energy, an energy service provider, has been recognized for his contributions to the energy sector. He has held leadership roles at companies and is an advocate for renewable and conventional energy solutions. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Nov. 17, 2024  The president-elect seeks to rewrite the balance of power and install lieutenants to blow up key parts of government, shocking the Washington establishment. In less than two weeks since being elected again, Trump has rolled a giant grenade into the middle of the nation’s capital and watched with mischievous glee to see who runs away and who throws themselves on it. So far there have been more of the former than the latter. Mr. Trump has said that “real power” is the ability to engender fear, and he seems to have achieved that. If Republicans bow to his demand to recess the Senate so that he can install appointees without confirmation, it would rewrite the balance of power established by the founders more than two centuries ago. "And if he gets his way on selections for some of the most important posts in government, he would put in place loyalists intent on blowing up the very departments they would lead. He has chosen a bomb-throwing backbench congressman who has spent his career attacking fellow Republicans and fending off sex-and-drugs allegations to run the same Justice Department that investigated him, though it did not charge him, on suspicion of trafficking underage girls. He has chosen a conspiracy theorist with no medical training who disparages the foundations of conventional health care to run the Department of Health and Human Services. He has chosen a weekend morning television host with a history of defending convicted war criminals while sporting a Christian Crusader tattoo that has been adopted as a symbol by the far right to run the most powerful armed forces in the history of the world. He has chosen a former congresswoman who has defended Middle East dictators and echoed positions favored by Russia to oversee the nation’s intelligence agencies". Mr. Trump is opting for nominees who are so provocative that even fellow Republicans wondered whether he is trolling them. The message to Washington is simple: Things are going to be different. “It is a sense that there’s been a seismic shift in the political culture. And, hey, I think they know we’re not going back,” Bannon, the former Trump White House strategist said. Many of Mr. Trump’s supporters agree with his argument that the system is fundamentally broken and needs to be burned down. Business as usual, in this view, has benefited the privileged class at the expense of the broader American public. The government has been thoroughly corrupted and turned against conservatives and their way of life. Leavitt, his incoming press secretary, said Mr. Trump had won „a mandate” to change Washington and to appoint highly qualified men and women who have the talent, experience, and necessary skill sets to make America great again, reflect that. Mr. Trump’s camp has made clear, that it’s a serious strategy to blow out the government as an institution because of their belief that it’s become too big, too powerful and represents the deep state, Marchick, a co-author of The Peaceful Transfer of Power, a history of presidential transitions, and dean of the Kogod School of Business at American University said. ”Mr. Trump is amplifying the’populist’ resentment that has grown since the days of the financial crash of 2008 rather than trying to ameliorate it", Baer, a former White House communications director under President Clinton, said. He tries to tear down the system, not something to tamp down. “What he’s doing now with these appointments is, „These are the people I’m going to do it with and I like that it aggravates you,” Mr. Baer said. In tapping Musk to head a new Department of Government Efficiency along with Ramaswamy have attracted less attention, Mr. Trump has handed vast influence over the federal government to a billionaire who profits from billions of dollars in government contracts. Mr. Trump’s margin of victory in the national popular vote will be one of the smallest in history. Since 1888, only two other presidents who won both the Electoral College and the popular vote had smaller margins of victory: Kennedy in 1960 and Nixon in 1968. Mr. Trump can boast that he increased his margin in the Electoral College, winning 312 votes this year to the 306 he garnered eight years ago. According to nearly complete totals, he secured his most recent victory by a cumulative 237,000 votes in three states. Mr. Trump helped Republicans gain four seats in the Senate, enough to take control of the chamber, certainly a major victory. But he failed to bring with him Republican Senate candidates in four of five battleground states where he campaigned the most and won. Moreover, with races still to be called, Republicans held onto the House but did not build on their razor-thin majority. Despite his modest margins, Mr. Trump has exhibited more dominance of his own party than any president in modern times. And his Senate recess demand will test just how far that dominance will go. The recess appointment power in the Constitution was designed to let a president temporarily fill vacancies while Congress was out of town in an era when it took weeks or months to travel to Washington. Senate Republican leaders did not rule out the idea after Mr. Trump broached it. Even if senators do not agree, Mr. Trump may try to employ a little-used provision in the Constitution allowing him to force a recess. “Trump has promised to be a dictator on Day 1 but has already started before Day 1,” said Daschle, a former Senate Democratic leader from South Dakota. Under the rules, a recess appointee can stay in place until the end of the next congressional session, meaning until December 2026, or almost two years. Given Mr. Trump’s historically short patience with appointees, that means he could have people in key departments for as long as he typically might have them without ever being subjected to Senate confirmation. According to figures from Mr. Marchick, the average tenure for a cabinet secretary in Mr. Trump’s first term other than Treasury, Commerce and Housing and Urban Development was 1.8 years. For the key security agencies - Defense, Justice and Homeland Security - the average term was 10.5 months. (Source: The New York Times – U.S.)
by Baker, the chief White House correspondent for The Times.

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2024. XI. 16. Germany, China, Turkey, United States

2024.11.18. 08:31 Eleve

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Europe

Germany
November 16, 2024 12:19 AM ET  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces a political crisis at home, spoke yesterday with Russian President Putin in a hour-long call. "The chancellor urged Russia to be willing to negotiate with Ukraine with the aim of achieving a just and lasting peace and stressed Germany's unwavering determination to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression for as long as necessary,’ Government spokesman Hebestreit said in a statement. Scholz condemned Russian air raids on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and warned that the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia to fight in the war would mark a serious escalation. The Kremlin said Germany initiated the call, during which the leaders had a detailed and frank exchange of opinions on the situation in Ukraine. Putin responded that any peace deal should acknowledge Russia's territorial gains and security demands, including that Kyiv renounce joining NATO. Putin blamed the current crisis on what he called NATO's "long-standing aggressive policy aimed at creating an anti-Russian stronghold on Ukrainian territory while ignoring our country's security interests and trampling on the rights of Russian-speaking residents," a Kremlin readout said. Putin also said Russia remains open to resuming peace talks, pointing to conditions he laid out in June that included Kyiv renouncing its bid to join NATO and withdrawing troops from the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow annexed in 2022. "Possible agreements should take into account the interests of the Russian Federation in the security sphere, proceed from new territorial realities, and most importantly, eliminate the root causes of the conflict," the readout said. Putin, who earlier this month said it's up to Western leaders to resume contact with Russia if they want, also noted the unprecedented degradation in bilateral relations between Germany and Russia, the Kremlin statement said, while noting that leaders also discussed the situation in the Middle East. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said the leaders had a "detailed" and "frank" exchange of opinions but added that "there is no talk about convergence of opinions.’ It was Kremlin leader's first publicly announced conversation with the sitting head of a major Western power in nearly two years. The two sides agreed to remain in contact after the call. (Source: National Public Radio / The Associated Press – U.S.)

Asia

China
November 16, 2024 01:01 JST 
China plans to tighten export controls on key "dual-use’ technologies and items - used for both civilian and military purposes - including raw materials and metals such as tungsten, graphite, magnesium and aluminum alloys used commonly in tech supply chains. Materials such as graphite, aluminum alloys and titanium alloys that are widely used in making electronics products showed on the official dual-use list and will be under export controls if their specifications meet China's new rules. The new controls also include tungsten and magnesium alloys that meet certain specifications. For example, exporters of aluminum alloys with extreme elasticity and an outer diameter larger than 75 millimeters will have to apply for an export license from the Commerce Ministry. China controls more than 80% of the extraction and processing of global tungsten supply, along with around 90% of global magnesium production, according to a European Union estimate on global critical materials supplies. All of these critical metals not only are used widely in the electronics supply chain, but also are indispensable to build defense equipment, weapons, aviation and spacecraft. The export control list also covers certain testing and production equipment, such as analog-to-digital converters that can operate in temperatures ranging from 125 C down to minus 54 C, and lithium isotope separation facility and production equipment. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's biggest contract chipmaker, recently notified some Chinese AI and graphics processing units clients to put on hold production for their 7-nanometer chips. The Taiwanese chipmaker is strengthening scrutiny to avoid running afoul of Washington's stringent export controls against blacklisted Chinese companies, such as Huawei Technologies. China has been tightening export controls on critical materials such as gallium, germanium, rare earths and antimony as countermoves to battle sweeping U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor and artificial intelligence technologies. Tighter Chinese export controls covering so-called dual-use items take effect on Dec. 1. The move comes right after former U.S. President Trump's victory in the presidential election. (Source: Nikkei – Japan)

Turkey
16.11.2024  Türkiye today declared the EU’s Maritime Spatial Planning maps of the Aegean and Mediterranean seas to be 'null and void' with no legal effect. It has repeatedly stressed that its issues with Greece, its Aegean neighbor, should be handled between the two countries, not through the EU or any third countries. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

 North America

United States
11/16/2024 07:00 AM EST  The gender divide has sundered Korean society - and now it’s coming for the U.S. 'No sex, No dating, No babies, No marriage; the 4B movement could change America'. If the movement takes hold, it could potentially lead to some of the same outcomes as have been seen in Korea, where women are reconsidering dates with men out of suspicion and lack or trust, young people are marrying and having children at lower rates, and both men and women are expressing deep loneliness. 'Politicians could take advantage of the divide for their own gains, leaning harder into gender-divide politics, and even outright sexist rhetoric'. And even women may turn against one another; American women are already arguing about the inclusivity of the movement. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
See also: 'give America a severely sharp birth rate decline' (Source: X - U.S.):
Since Nov. 6., 2024. 7:05 AM:  21,3 Million views

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2024. XI. 15. Iran, Israel, Syria, United States

2024.11.18. 07:15 Eleve

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Asia

Iran
Friday 15 November 2024 15:02 GMT
  Iran sent a private letter delivered on October 14 to the Biden administration vowing it wouldn’t plot to kill Trump, according to a report. The letter from Tehran came in response to US officials’ private hand-written warning to the country in September, relating that any threats against the then-Republican nominee’s life would be “treated as an act of war". Tehran’s letter was not signed by a specific official. One week earlier the Justice Department announced that it had intercepted a fugitive Iranian government operative’s scheme to assassinate President-elect Trump before election day. Over the summer the Biden administration learned of credible threats targeting US politicians. Amid these alleged threats on his life, Trump told in late September, that he would consider a new nuclear agreement with the country - years after he pulled out of the 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal during his first term. More recently, on Monday, Musk - Trump’s pick to lead the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency - met with Iran’s ambassador to the UN, in New York City. Iranian officials described the meeting to the New York Times as “positive” and “good news.” (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Israel
Friday, 15 November 2024 08:38 AM EST 
On Oct. 25, Israel destroyed a top secret Taleghan 2 nuclear weapons research facility in the Parchin military complex, located roughly 20 miles southeast of Tehran during its missile attack on Iran last month, it was reported today. The facility previously had been reported to be inactive. 'They conducted scientific activity that could lay the ground for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing. A small part of the Iranian government knew about this, but most of the Iranian government didn't,' one U.S. official told Axios. The attack destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design the plastic explosives that surround uranium in nuclear devices and are needed to detonate them, an ex-Israeli official told the outlet. After Israeli and U.S. intelligence detected research activity at Parchin earlier this year, White House officials warned the Iranians to stop the undertaking. Israel carried out a series of airstrikes against the Islamic Republic which did not appear to target facilities that would all but ensure a harsh Iranian response. Those most notably include Iran's oil infrastructure, the backbone of the OPEC member's economy, and its nuclear facilities. President Biden earlier last month said he would not support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Because Taleghan 2 was not part of Iran's declared nuclear program, Iran wouldn't be able to acknowledge the importance of the attack without admitting they violated the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Iran has denied it is pursuing nuclear weapons. The Institute for Science and International Security reported that the Taleghan 2 facility, as part of the Iranian Amad nuclear weapons program, was used for testing explosives needed to set off a nuclear device before Iran supposedly halted its military nuclear program in 2003. After Israeli strikes last month, the institute acquired high-resolution satellite imagery showing the Taleghan 2 building was completely destroyed. (Source: Newsmax; "The Associated Press contributed" - U.S.)

Syria
(Friday), 15 November, 2024  Syria state media says second Israeli strike in two days hits the upscale Mazzeh district of Damascus, the neighbourhood home to embassies, security headquarters and United Nations offices today. The attacks coincided with an official visit to Damascus by Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei,, who met with Syrian President Assad. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said the strikes targeted a "military housing complex' in Mazzeh. Israeli strikes yesterday in and around Damascus killed 23 people. Thursday's strike on Mazzeh killed 13 people, including civilians and Iran-backed fighters. An attack on the outskirts of Damascus killed 10 Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants. Islamic Jihad has fought alongside Hamas against Israeli forces in Gaza 'and has been at war with Israel before'. (Source: The New Arab, a London-based pan-Arab news outlet owned by a Qatari company)

North America

United States
November 15, 2024  Between activism and isolationism.      Trump’s potential approach to the Middle East, identifying possible shifts and continuities, can include the Iran-Israel confrontation (centered on the Iranian nuclear program); the Arab-Israeli reconciliation (and the future of the Palestinian question); US military presence in Syria and Iraq; and broader efforts to reshape the Middle Eastern order within the context of US-China strategic competition. The scenarios and possibilities discussed here consider the tensions between two core factions within today’s Republican Party: an isolationist faction on the farther right of the party aligned with Trump’s “America First” vision, and a more activist faction that supports robust American power projection, though not through large-scale ground invasions as seen in Iraq or Afghanistan.         Much in terms of the trajectory of Iran and Israel’s confrontation depends on the threat perception, risk calculation and strategic objectives of each side. The Iranian regime is caught between a rock and a hard place. Iran has been in a mostly reactive position since the Israeli attack on Iranian consulate in Damascus in April. Israel has gained strategic initiative over Iran and is the party that would decide whether, when, how, and where to escalate based on what price it is willing to pay for the ends that it defines for itself.         Much in the US-Israel-Iran relations depends on the direction of Iran’s nuclear program and whether Iran will be willing to negotiate with a Trump administration. Trump has signaled on several occasions that he does not seek regime change in Tehran and that he wants an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian officials are aiming to avoid the possibility of war with the United States or Israel. Iranian Vice-President for Strategic Affairs Zarif, a primary advocate of the former Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal on Iran’s side, has indicated that Tehran would enter into talks with Trump if it is treated with “respect.” During his previous term, Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and issued a twelve-point set of conditions for talks with Iran, which included: Terminating the military dimension of its nuclear program; Allowing rigorous and sudden inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency; Halting Iran’s ballistic missile program; Ceasing support for regional proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and: Disarming Iraqi militias and integrating them into Iraq’s security forces. Iran’s ’repeated attempts to assassinate’ Trump could influence Trump’s personal stance toward Iran, adding another layer of complexity for Tehran. A deal with Washington along the liens of the 12 points might seem like an act of capitulation for Iran. Without its network of regional militias, ballistic missile capabilities, and a nuclear program under stringent international monitoring, the Islamic Republic would undergo a transformation, appearing significantly weakened to both allies and adversaries. This could leave Iran vulnerable to external pressures and domestic unrest, given the government’s oppressive stance on civil liberties, women’s rights, ethnic minorities, and overall economic mismanagement. Rejecting a deal exposes Iran to the serious risk of escalating Israeli and even US attacks, particularly as its air defenses are now severely compromised following recent Israeli strikes in late October. Trump’s policy toward Tehran will also depend on the figures he appoints to key national security and foreign policy roles. Should individuals with strong anti-Islamic Republic views assume these positions, it would be reasonable to expect an aggressive stance from the administration toward Iran. Florida Senator Rubio, Trump’s choice to lead the State Department; former State Department Iran envoy Hook, overseeing the department’s transition; Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for Defense Secretary; Congressman Waltz, the nominee for National Security Advisor; Congresswoman Stefanik, the nominee for US’s UN ambassador role - all these figures are known for tough stances on Iran and strong support for US allies such as Israel. Evans, a prominent Evangelical leader and Trump advisor, told Israel’s i24News that president-elect Trump encouraged Israel to target Iran’s energy infrastructure during Biden’s remaining lame-duck period. With Hamas significantly weakened and Hezbollah decapitated, Netanyahu may feel emboldened to launch a comprehensive strike on Iran before or shortly after January 20 to diminish Tehran’s threat to Israel. The Trump administration is likely to pursue a maximum pressure campaign by imposing new sanctions on key Iranian industries, rigorously enforcing existing sanctions on Iranian oil sales, adopting a ’maximum support’ approach if domestic unrest occurred in Iran, and potentially backing Israeli strikes on Tehran - either to pressure Tehran into a new deal or to punish it severely for refusing one and for its regional behavior. Of Iran’s multi-layered deterrence strategies, only developing a nuclear weapon might shield it against future attacks and possible collapse, given the reduced effectiveness of its Resistance Axis and ballistic missile arsenal. 'With uranium enriched to 60 percent, Iran appears to be now capable of producing weapons-grade, 90-percent-enriched uranium within one to two weeks, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated in July'. Taking actual steps toward building a bomb would certainly invite a devastating Israeli (and US) response.         The Abraham Accords, establishing diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan were foreign policy achievements and legacy of the first Trump administration. A second Trump administration would likely prioritize securing a similar agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Trump’s personal style of diplomacy and strong connections with Crown Prince Salman may aid in this process. Saudi Arabia seems to prefer a comprehensive approach, reiterating the need for a recognized Palestinian state as a precondition for any deal with Israel. Given Saudi Arabia’s leadership role in the Arab and Islamic worlds and its guardianship of Islam’s two holiest sites, the kingdom cannot afford to appear as abandoning the Palestinian cause. The Palestinian issue and militant groups remain potent forces that could disrupt any Arab-Israeli deal that overlooks them. If Kushner returns to a central role in Trump’s Middle East policy, the chances of a comprehensive Saudi-Israeli agreement may increase. A bilateral Saudi-US security agreement might be the most viable alternative.         The ongoing presence of US troops in Syria and Iraq; Given Trump’s emphasis on ending ’endless wars’ abroad, he may be tempted to bring these troops home.      Syria is currently divided into three primary zones, each backed by a major regional or global power. The western part of Syria is dominated by Assad, with the support of Iran, its regional proxies, and Russia; The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control the northern and northeastern energy-rich areas with the backing of a 900-strong US military deployment; Northwestern and parts of northern Syria are controlled by various, mainly Islamist groups supported by Turkey. As a transit point for weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Damascus has an unresolved territorial dispute with Israel over the Golan Heights, which has been under Israeli control since the 1967 War. Syria was a primary base of the islamic state (isis) and has recently witnessed troubling signs of isis resurgence. And Syria has become a site of ongoing tension between Turkey and Kurds. In 2019, Trump ordered a partial withdrawal of US troops from the border areas between Syria and Turkey, enabling Turkey to launch incursions and occupy significant portions of Kurdish-majority areas previously held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Kennedy Jr. recently stated that the president-elect wanted to withdraw the remaining US troops from Syria to avoid them becoming ’cannon fodder’ in the event of a regional conflict between the Assad regime and Turkey. A US withdrawal would likely lead to further instability in Syria. Pulling out the troops would trigger a bloody struggle by various local and regional contenders for the control. Of the SDF territory could potentially lead to the escape of hundreds, if not thousands, of captured isis elements and their radicalized family members from prisons and camps. National Security Advisor Waltz and State Secretary nominee Rubio strongly opposed Trump’s troops’ withdrawal from Syria in 2019.      The United States and Iraq are neither true allies nor adversaries, despite the Strategic Framework Agreement they signed in 2008. Approximately 2,500 US troops are stationed in Iraq, advising Iraqi security forces, ensuring isis’s defeat. The growing dominance of pro-Iran groups within Baghdad’s state institutions, attacks of US forces in Iraq and Syria as part of Iran’s broader strategy to undermine US regional influence placed Iraq and the United States in a murky dynamic. Iran-backed militias have targeted both Israel and US force with dozens of attacks on Israel in the past six weeks. These actions contradict Iraq’s official stance. Recently, Iraqi and US officials reached an agreement for US forces to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2026, with a small contingent remaining in the Kurdistan Region during the last year of this agreement to support the mission in neighboring Syria. This agreement awaits final approval from the US government. The incoming Trump administration may find it tempting to withdraw US troops from Iraq. Ongoing attacks on Israel could potentially make Iraq a target for the Israeli military. Washington has reportedly restrained Israel from adding Iraq to its list of targets. Iraq may also face sanctions due to militia activities, the ’continued smuggling of US-provided dollars’ to Iran and its proxies, and an Iraqi judicial arrest warrant for Trump following the killing of Soleimani and Muhandis, a senior leader of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the umbrella group for predominantly Iran-backed factions. Possibility of Washington revoking exemptions that allow Iraq to purchase Iranian natural gas for its power plants is a tangible prospect. Pressure on the Iraqi government toward meaningful security sector reforms could involve curbing the influence of Iran-backed armed factions and further integrating the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) into the state’s military-security structure. The United States could also alternatively maintain a long-term military presence in Iraqi Kurdistan to support the Syria mission.         The Middle East remains integral to global rivalries by the desire to reduce US engagement. China flexed its diplomatic clout by brokering the 2023 Iran-Saudi deal. The region is central to global trade routes, as evidenced by initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to integrate the region’s vast energy resources. For Washington it would feel compelled to continue strengthening its allies. Washington’s disengagement would likely invite interventions by China or Russia, or intensify regional rivalries among players like Israel, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Turkey, and Iran. Iran tend to design his policies in the region as part of a broader strategy to erode US influence and challenge the US-dominated global order. The selection of individuals for key foreign policy and national security roles suggests a lean toward a more engaged US presence in the region than retreat, continuity in support for Israel and harsher policy toward Iran. The future US policy could still reflect isolationist tendencies, a struggle between activist and isolationist inclinations within the Trump administration. Neither side is likely to gain full control, suggesting US Middle East policy will likely experience shifts in both directions. (Source: The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.)
by Salih, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the FPRI's Middle East Program.

 4 11 17 22:52

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2024. XI. 14. Spain, Crimea, Russia, Ukraine, Afghanistan, India, South Korea, United States, Peru

2024.11.17. 22:50 Eleve

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Europe

Spain
(13 November 2024)  Parts of Spain are again under water, two weeks after the country's worst flooding disaster in decades. /Video/ (Source: 9News - Australia)

Crimea
11/14/24 at 9:36 a.m. ET  The bridge on the Dzhankoi-Maslove route
in northern Crimea collapsed on November 13, and the cause has yet to be confirmed. The railway is used to transport military shipments in the territory. The damage to the bridge will disrupt Russia's transportation of supplies in the ongoing war against Ukraine. A truck and a car were on the bridge at the time of its collapse. The bridge could not bear the truck's weight. (Source: Newsweek - United Kingdom)

Russia
Thursday 14 November 2024 16:58 GMT  Ukraine
says it has full control of the key city Kupiansk in the northeast of the country, after Russian troops – 'some disguised as Ukrainian soldiers' – were said to have briefly breach its outskirts. Russian attacks in Kupiansk, as well as the counterattack in Kursk and sweeping advances in the eastern Donetsk region along multiple fronts, were already of significant concern to Ukraine and its backers. But US president-elect Trump’s comprehensive victory last week has brought into sharp relief the cost of territorial losses as his advisors confirmed the incoming leader is intent on ending the war, possibly by demanding a freeze of the frontline. Waltz, Mr Trump’s nominee for the White House’s national security advisor, told Voice of America after a meeting with the president-elect: “The president clearly expressed that he wishes to bring both sides to the negotiating table. He is focused on ending the war, not its continuation.” But both Russian officials 'and Ukrainian lawmakers' appear opposed to the idea of a frozen frontline. (Source: The Idependent - United Kingdom)

Ukraine
14/11/2024 - 07:45  Around 500 corruption cases have been opened this year
and 60 convictions secured, according to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. The persistent problem will hamper Ukraine's massive reconstruction agenda, deterring international partners from putting up funds. The total cost of reconstructing Ukraine stands is estimated at $486 billion, according to a joint study by the World Bank, UN, EU and Ukrainian government. Even though Ukraine has stepped up its anti-graft measures over the past decade to advance its ambition of joining the European Union, corruption scandals rife in the war-torn country, where for some officials Russia's invasion and a multi-billion-dollar reconstruction programme has provided new opportunities for personal enrichment. Last year, the country launched a platform listing all open projects. Called "DREAM", the aim is to enable investors, journalists and Ukrainians to track the progress of construction projects, said its head Nestulia. Gruyaert agreed to help rebuild destroyed apartment blocks outside Kyiv. But when the French company he works for, Neo-Eco, applied for building permits in the town of Gostomel, the local military administration asked the company to transfer the funds for the multimillion-dollar project to its bank account, under the pretence that it would run the project directly. It is the latest example of the endemic corruption that has plagued Ukraine since it became independent after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The company refused, and progress on the initiative, which had secured 20 million euros in private funding, immediately slowed. The company decided to abandon the project in September 2023, saying it was "impossible" to work under such conditions. Ukrainian investigators said they had uncovered a system of "embezzlement" in the Gostomel military administration and accused its head Borysiuk of appropriating around 21 million hryvnia ($470,000) meant for the reconstruction of houses and apartments. Neo-Eco has had to learn how to 'zigzag between the various obstacles', Gruyaert said. The company is still working on several other projects and encourages other foreign investors to get involved. (Source: France 24 / AFP - France)

November 14, 2024  Since Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, emigration depleted the population while the fertility rate fell to 1.4 births per woman. According to a report by the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, the overall population had declined to 29 million people in 2023 - compared to 48.5 million in 2001. In 2023, Ukraine including its Russian-occupied territories - saw only 187,000 live births, the lowest rate in 300 years. A report by the Financial Times from March 2024 found that of the 11.1 million Ukrainian men aged 25 to 60, 7.4 million were either already mobilized or were unavailable for reasons ranging from disability to employment in critical sectors. Another 900,000 men of military age are not registered in any government systems and thus cannot be conscripted. Of the 3.4 million military-age men in the workforce, 600,000 are considered critical workers and thus unlikely to face conscription. The remaining cohort of potential conscripts therefore numbers just 2.8 million — roughly equal to the number of those who have fled or are disabled. Ukraine faces a 1-for-1 tradeoff between conscripting men into the armed forces or leaving them in the workforce, where they can support the government by paying taxes and otherwise keeping the economy afloat. The decision to conscript more men will reverberate for generations due to its impact on the fertility rate. If Ukraine conscripts older men, it risks creating more widows and orphans who will likely depend on the state for survival. If it conscripts younger men, it risks further damaging the fertility rate and preventing more Ukrainians from being born at all. The country's demographic pyramid has inverted due to aging, low birth rates, and emigration, such that there are roughly 9.5 million employed people whose taxes provide for 23 million pensioners, children, and unemployed people. According to USAID, since 2022, the American government has provided $26.8 billion dollars in direct budgetary support to Ukraine’s government, in addition to billions more in military assistance and in-kind transfers of weapons. Without the support of the U.S. and its European allies, Ukraine would not only struggle to equip its troops, but also to maintain basic government services. Ukraine, fresh off a deal to restructure its international debt, lacks the resources to attract military recruits with competitive salaries. In April, President Zelenskyy split the difference by lowering the draft age from 27 to 25. In recent months, several other efforts to boost recruitment have failed, and their failure has intensified political divisions within Ukraine. Corruption and self-interest also play a role. A significant amount of money may have disappeared into the pockets of local power brokers. In July, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk hosted Zelenskyy in Warsaw, where the two announced an agreement including plans to recruit, train, and equip Ukrainians living in Poland to return to Ukraine to fight. Poland’s defense minister, Kosiniak-Kamysz, noted in an interview that the numbers of volunteers are simply too small. As the Ukrainian government steps up efforts to replenish its troops from a dwindling supply of eligible military-age men, every soldier recruited to the front means one less worker and potentially one less father. Tomorrow, it will need those men to return home, rebuild their lives, rebuild their families, and, ultimately, rebuild their country. (Source: Responsible Statecraft - U.S.)
by Tokarz

Asia

Afghanistan
(November 14, 2024)  The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), citing data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), reported that from August 15, 2023, to September 2024, some 2.2 million Afghan migrants have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan. According to the report, of the total returnees, 734,817 Afghans came back from Pakistan alone. Overall, 32.1 million people across the country have received humanitarian aid. USAID further cited the International Organization for Migration (IOM), noting that Afghanistan was home to 6.6 million internally displaced persons last year. (Source: Amu TV - U.S.)

India
November 14, 2024  In October,
China and India reached an agreement on patrolling a stretch of their long-disputed shared border in the high mountains of the Himalayas. It also allowed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi to meet in Russia and hold talks for the first time in five years. Now, many analysts see the possibility of a reset and a return to normal ties. In the last five years India’s imports from China have ballooned. India relies on China for sophisticated technology, such as personal computers, laptops, and the components used in making telecommunications equipment and mobile phones. If Indian policymakers do not break the conceptual barrier between economics and security, India will remain vulnerable to China and its ambitions for hegemony in Asia. Economic dependence will make New Delhi forever vulnerable to Beijing. China’s ambitions continue to circumscribe India’s ability to act at the regional and global levels. In 1962, China and India fought a hugely one-sided war in the Himalayas that resulted in India’s losing vast tracts of land; spats over the long, contested border are still ongoing. The two countries have never formally agreed on the exact line of their shared border, which snakes over 2,000 miles, largely through high, inhospitable terrain. In the 1990s, the neighbors signed accords that emphasized the principle of not using military force to settle the border dispute, allowing India to believe it had won peace even though no conclusive agreement about the border had been reached. But in the years that followed, China strengthened its infrastructure along the border to better support troop deployments. India was not oblivious to these moves, but it opted not to develop corresponding infrastructure on its side out of fear that a Chinese invasion could be abetted by Indian-built roads. Indian governments also hoped that conflict between the two countries was a thing of the past. Under Prime Minister Singh, who ruled from 2004 to 2014, many officials and analysts assumed that China and India could rise together, invoking the somewhat cringeworthy term “Chindia.” Potential new ties with China led the Indian establishment of that era even to downplay China’s maneuvers to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean through its “string of pearls” strategy, which seeks to extend China’s maritime presence by building commercial and military facilities overseas. Modi came to power in 2014 - and China grew more aggressive under Xi. China tried to adjust the status quo in the border region in violation of existing treaties and covenants by moving troops into sensitive areas and provoking confrontations with Indian soldiers, in the process transforming India’s security calculus. India and the United States expanded their partnership to include a greater focus on real-time intelligence sharing and building joint military capabilities in the wider Indo-Pacific. In 2022, they launched a joint initiative on critical and emerging technologies, which sought to encourage cooperation between defense industries, manufacture jet engines in India, and create semiconductor supply chains free of China, among other worthy proposals. During his formal state visit to the United States in June 2023, Modi stressed that he believed New Delhi’s partnership with Washington cemented India’s place in the international order. In practice, India has adopted a more confrontational posture toward China that seeks to discourage Chinese adventurism. Modi has asked Taiwanese President Lai to deepen economic engagement with India through the joint development of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and through a labor-mobility agreement signed in February 2024 that will allow Indian workers to help Taiwan mitigate labor shortages in some sectors. The Modi government also seems to be in sync with a Biden administration initiative to direct greater global attention toward the status of Tibet. In June 2024, India approved a U.S. congressional delegation’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, who lives in exile in India. The Modi government is willing to tread close to China’s redlines about its 'core interests' in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Tibet. Nearly a decade ago, when Xi unveiled the Belt and Road Initiative India opposed it on grounds that it would encourage China’s partners to take on unsustainable levels of debt. India also bristled at the way one plank of the initiative - the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor - moved through territory that New Delhi insists belongs to India and is illegally occupied by Pakistan. But New Delhi enthusiastically participated in the establishment of the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, serving as a founding member. India has been one of the largest beneficiaries of lending from the multilateral institution, receiving $4.4 billion, as of 2018, that has gone into projects related to electricity generation, road construction, and urban rail projects. The Indian government issued new rules in 2020 that modified how foreign direct investments could flow into India, with the not-so-secret aim of limiting Chinese investment. In its latest annual analysis of the economy, India’s Ministry of Finance called for further Chinese investment in India. It has launched a portal to expedite visas for Chinese professionals. Civil aviation ministers from both countries met in September to discuss the resumption of direct passenger flights after they were suspended in 2020. The willingness to see China as both a security threat and an economic boon is the Achilles’ heel of India’s China policy. New Delhi’s dependence on China with respect to components or heavy equipment for industrial supply chains coupled with India’s weak manufacturing sector presents a vulnerability that China can exploit for geopolitical leverage. So far, Indian policymakers have divided national security from economics when it comes to China. It will not be easy to establish India’s economic security in the shadow of its giant northern neighbor. It could help find foreign investment to better develop those sectors in India in which China has the lead, such as in green technology and electric vehicles. An economic security ministry could undertake an audit of supply chains to pinpoint risks and seek alternative suppliers to diversify imports. (Source: Foreign Affairs)

South Korea
November 14 2024 09:10:35  South Korea, the U.S. and Japan yesterday launched their second trilateral multidomain drill in international waters of the East Asian country. The three-day Freedom Edge exercise is taking place in international waters of South Korea's southern island of Jeju. Ships and aircraft are taking part in the dril. (Source: Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey)

North America

United States
November 14, 2024, 11:46 PM  President-elect Trump selected Florida Rep. Gaetz as his choice to serve as attorney general. Woman told House Ethics Committee Gaetz had sex with her when she was 17. Gaetz abruptly resigned from Congress, ending the House Ethics Committee's investigation. (Source: ABC News - U.S.)

South America

Peru
November 14, 2024 at 4:28 a.m. EST  China opens huge port in Peru - a key stop on the new silk route to extend its reach in South America. The megaport opening in the small town of Chancay , which sits 50 miles north of the capital, Lima, Peru will be inaugurated today by Chinese President Xi and his Peruvian counterpart, Boluarte, on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima. The huge port is expected to attract more than $3 billion in investment by creating a direct route across the Pacific Ocean and extend Beijing’s influence in Latin America. It underscores China’s growing clout in a region that once looked primarily to the United States for economic opportunity. The first phase, building a port that will handle only smaller ships, is expected to begin operations this month. The high-tech logistics hub will be exclusively operated by Chinese shipping giant Cosco, which in 2019 invested $1.3 billion to take a 60 percent stake in the project. Chinese state media has estimated the total cost of the finished project to be over $3 billion. Its automated cargo cranes are supplied by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries. Electric driverless trucks made by Chinese companies will be used to handle containers and cargo. The level of Chinese interest and involvement in Chancay has drawn warnings from the United States about Peru potentially being used by Chinese military ships as a foothold in the Americas. Beijing has denied the project is motivated by anything other than commercial interest. Chinese and Peruvian officials have celebrated the project as a transformative opportunity for Peru. President Boluarte has called it a potential “nerve center” joining the continent to Asia, one that could create 8,000 jobs and $4.5 billion in economic activity annually. When completed, the port’s 15 docks will be the first place in South America able to host carrier ships too big to fit through the Panama Canal. Chinese researchers have said the route will cut costs and shorten sailing times by 10 to 20 days, attracting business from other hubs in the region. It could also make Peru an attractive destination for Chinese companies searching for new export markets or even locations to set up factories in the Americas. On a visit to China in June, Boluarte cited Chancay as a reason for Chinese electric car giant BYD to consider establishing an assembly plant in the country. Chancay will join an expanding global network of more than 40 ports under the Belt and Road Initiative, a $1 trillion plan to build transportation and technology infrastructure launched by Xi in 2013. Despite claims of Chancay being a purely commercial venture, Chinese foreign policy experts have written about the project as a geopolitical win for Beijing that will need to be defended from American interference. The Chinese takeover of Chancay has not been without controversy in Peru. The Peruvian port authority tried this year to alter the terms of Cosco’s investment deal, citing an “administrative error” when agreeing to grant the Chinese firm exclusive operating rights over the seaport for 30 years. The lawsuit was dropped in June days before Boluarte traveled to China to meet Xi. Chinese interests in Latin America are fast evolving beyond mining and other extractive industries to include agreements to provide surveillance technology and ground stations for Chinese satellites. “Latin America, and the Global South in general, wants to sell their products to whoever they can, so this sort of fearmongering is unlikely to work,” Dourado, a researcher affiliated with the Center for China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Universidad del Pacífico in Lima said. Xi and Boluarte are also expected to sign an expanded free-trade agreement. China has been Peru’s largest trading partner for a decade. The countries traded $36 billion in goods last year, compared with Peru’s $21 billion trade with the United States. For Beijing, the port promises to bring together a string of existing investments in Peru and neighboring countries. China has ambitions to build a railway line connecting Chancay to Brazil, its largest trading partner in Latin America, and Chinese firms are in the process of taking over electricity distribution for Lima. Chinese investments in the Peruvian mining sector total $11.4 billion. The majority of that is focused on securing access to copper, which is essential to the manufacturing of electronics and clean-energy technologies. With nearly all the world’s copper refining happening in China, the Chancay port will help Beijing improve its access to mines in South America’s second largest producer of raw copper. That choke hold on the supply chain is absolutely critical and dominant. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post - U.S.)

.4 11 15 11:27

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