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Europe
Germany
November 27, 2024 Germany’s engagement with the United States continues to show gross deficits. The first problem is the tendency to paint U.S. presidents in extremes - either as messianic figures (like Kennedy and Obama) or as cartoon villains (like W. Bush and Trump). This dichotomous perspective is not indicative of a mature society but an adolescent one. Even under a Harris administration, a more robust U.S. nuclear weapons policy, including equipping missiles with additional nuclear warheads, would have been likely. However, if the Project 2025 playbook provides any indication, under a Republican administration, the scale of nuclear buildup could be considerably more extensive. A second problem is the Germans’ selective perception of the United States. They often recognize only what they want to see or what can be viewed through a superimposed continental European perspective. When further filtered through a progressive lens, a double distortion of reality occurs. This makes it difficult to discern where the center of gravity lies in U.S. discourse. On nuclear arms control, for example, there is a bipartisan consensus to prepare for a three-way nuclear arms race with Russia and China. A third problem related to this is that American discourses are often recounted almost verbatim in Germany. However, German, European, and American interests and interpretations are not always congruent. A U.S. demand for investments in deterrence and toughness is not inherently more welcome than ’a U.S. demand for disarmament’ and dialogue - and vice versa. Germany must make its own assessment. Contacts with Republican politicians and conservative experts must be intensified, not only as a gesture of friendship but also as a necessity. This includes engaging with conservative foreign policy experts such as Colby, Costlow, Peters, and Kroenig, to name a few. Russia’s war against Ukraine marks a generational shift, and for the foreseeable future, the United States will not revert to traditional strands of conservative or liberal internationalism. Germany will have to deal with Trump in an age of instability and a looming nuclear arms race. This makes it even more necessary to engage with the Republican foreign policy and nuclear community to avoid unnecessary conflict and misunderstandings. The guiding principle should be the following: a world of unconstrained arms racing would be very expensive for all sides involved. And in the end, there is no such thing as victory in a nuclear war. Under a second Trump presidency, the United States 'might decide to expand its nuclear forces and infrastructure', primarily to counter China’s nuclear buildup. Trump’s former National Security Advisor O’Brien even advocated for resuming nuclear weapons tests, which would further challenge the test ban norm. The costs for U.S. nuclear forces were already estimated at approximately $750 billion until 2032 before the election - and could now increase further. A Republican majority in Congress could make it easier for Trump to pursue this path. (Source: The National Interest – U.S.)
by Dr. Fella, a Senior Researcher at the Berlin office of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH).
European Parliament
(27/11/2024) Strasbourg confirmed the new European Commission team of 26 commissioners led by Der Leyen with 370 votes in favor, 282 votes against, and 36 abstentions. (Source: DW - Germany, "AFP, dpa, Reuters")
Belarus
November 27, 2024 Belarusian companies are secretly supplying Russia with advanced Western-made microchips, thereby sustaining the production of fighter jets, drones, and missiles used in the war against Ukraine. These firms exploit intricate logistics routes to circumvent restrictions, importing Western microchips and relabeling them before transferring them to Russian defense manufacturers via intermediaries in Europe or Asia. The flow of Western technology into Russia's military reveals weaknesses in global sanctions. 'Among the exported components are the U.S.-made Intel chips found in Russian Su-35S and Su-34 fighter jets, Kalibr cruise missiles, and Korsar drones'. 'Belarusian firm Alexsvit Ltd., shipped over 130 banned microchips to Russia between 2022 and 2023. Alexsvit’s revenue has tripled since the war began. 'Pervy Kontinent, established after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sold $155,000 worth of chips to Russian companies under U.S. and EU sanctions. 'Logisticheskaya Kompaniya Vostok, exported more than 215,000 microchips to Russia, including 1,500 U.S.-made components. The buyers include defense firms linked to Roskosmos and Kalashnikov, critical components of Russia’s military-industrial complex. Among the Russian buyers are defense contractors such as Baltelektron, sanctioned by the U.S. for supplying dual-use electronics to the Russian military. The company sourced components from three Belarusian firms - Chip Express, Chipimport, and Elektrosale. 'Belarusian firm SD Electro, supplied microchips for Su-30SM jets and Orion drones to Green-Chip, a Russian company tied to missile and nuclear system projects. 'The finding was made with the assistance of a group of Belarusian hackers known as CyberPartisans’. The findings spotlight systemic failures in sanctions enforcement and the ability of Belarus to act as a middleman for Russia’s war machine. (Source: The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) - a non-governmental organization and website)
Ukraine
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 Last month alone, Russian troops took almost 200 square miles in the Donetsk region. Just fifteen miles now separate the Russian forces from entering the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. If Russia succeeds, a sixth region will be swallowed by hostilities. Ukraine’s forces are thinning fast. The front line is collapsing and one of the main reasons is desertion, adding to crippling manpower shortages. Officially, some 90,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted - almost half of them this year -, but the unofficial number is much higher. Desertion is punishable by up to twelve years in prison. In August Ukraine passed a law forgiving soldiers who went AWOL for the first time as long as they agreed to come back. The law was intended to rescue the army’s plummeting numbers. But the lawmakers ignored the warnings from military commanders that such a law — unprecedented for a country at war - would thin the fighting lines where the battle was most intense. Ukraine is the first country to give deserters’ the option of leaving and then volunteering elsewhere - select a new brigade - under the new law. This has had a calamitous effect on discipline, essentially giving men permission to flee. Soldiers who have been fighting Russia for years without relief or rotation, often in positions that seem hopeless, saw it as their chance for immediate leave and a transfer to a more desirable brigade.“It is a step towards defeat,” said Kukharchuk, commander of the 2nd Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade. Thousands of soldiers have been on the front line for almost three years, while others have been fighting since Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbas ten years ago. Kyiv has so far failed to conscript enough people for the understaffed brigades, let alone provide troop rotations or retirement. Most 'rotations' are just transfers from one hotspot to another, from Pokrovsk to Chasiv Yar and back. Hnezdilov, 24, is now in custody and is likely to be given the full twelve-year sentence: He left the army last month after five years of service and announced his decision on social media. He demanded reforms to service terms and a fairer mobilization process when the only paths to demobilization are desertion, injury or death. Public desertion poses a far greater threat to the state than thousands that go unnoticed. The recruitment crisis led the Ukrainian parliament to lower the draft age from twenty-seven to twenty-five in April. Lowering the draft age seemed to treble the number of soldiers-in-training to 35,000 a month. But numbers have since fallen back to about 20,000. In the summer, all Ukrainian men aged between twenty-five and sixty were obliged to visit enlistment offices and update their military registration documents. Those who didn’t were placed on a wanted list. Last month the authorities kicked off a nationwide hunt for draft-evaders. Police raided restaurants, bars, comedy shows and concert venues across the country. On October 11, in Kyiv, thousands of fans leaving an Okean Elzy concert were met by enlistment officers, police and secret service agents and asked to produce their military registration documents. Those who resisted were arrested. Shouting ‘shame’ at any detention has become an automatic reflex for Ukrainians. There are still many ways to dodge the draft. Exemptions can be booked due to health or critical employment - or, in extreme cases, by buying fake disability certificates (up to $25,000). A cash pile worth $6 million was recently found in the home of a medical authority leader in the Khmelnytskyi region. Other tricks include marrying disabled women or divorcing to pose as the single father of a child. Kyiv plans to conscript 160,000 in the coming months, but even this will raise the manning of units only to 85 percent. Ukraine has already lost a quarter of its 40 million population either through deaths or people fleeing abroad. The UN predicts that Ukraine’s population may halve again to just 15 million within seventy-five years. Most men under twenty-five don’t have children yet and the war has meant three deaths for every birth. Russian forces are just four miles from Pokrovsk, once home to 60,000 people, a rail and road hub - the key to seizing the Donetsk region. Outnumbered and outgunned, Ukrainian soldiers are fortifying the streets, but without fresh reinforcements they won’t hold out for long. This will soon become an acute dilemma for Zelensky. He can’t afford to lose more of Ukraine’s land. His advisor said that Ukraine’s allies have been pressuring him to lower the draft age further still to eighteen. (Source: The Spectator World – United Kingdom)
Asia
China
07/11/2024 China's military has undergone a sweeping anti-corruption purge since last year. China's Defense Minister Dong has been placed under investigation for corruption, British newspaper Financial Times reported today. Dong, a former navy commander, was appointed defense minister in December following the surprise removal of Li just seven months into the job. Li was later expelled from the Communist Party for offenses including suspected bribery. He has since not been seen in public. His predecessor, Wei, too, was kicked out from the party over alleged corruption. (Source: DW - Germany; "Reuters, AFP")
Israel
27.11.2024 The Israeli security cabinet approved a cease-fire deal with Lebanon late yesterday to end a devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. “The Security Cabinet, this evening, in a 10-1 vote, approved the US proposal for a cease-fire arrangement in Lebanon,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement. “Israel appreciates the US contribution to the process and maintains its right to act against any threat to its security,” the statement added. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
Lebanon
Nov 27, 2024, 9:43 AM Ceasefire officially starts in Lebanon. The terms of the agreement are as follow: Hezbollah and all other armed groups present on Lebanese territory will refrain from conducting any offensive actions against Israel. In return, Israel will not carry out any military offensive against targets in Lebanon, whether on land, in the air, or at sea. Both Israel and Lebanon recognize the importance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. These commitments do not waive Israel's and Lebanon's inherent right to self-defense. The Lebanese security forces and the Lebanese Army will be the only entities authorized to carry weapons or deploy troops in southern Lebanon. The sale, provision, or production of weapons and related material in Lebanon will be supervised by the Lebanese government. All unauthorized facilities related to the production of weapons and related materials will be dismantled. All non-compliant military infrastructure and positions will be dismantled, and all unauthorized weapons will be confiscated. A committee approved by both Israel and Lebanon will be established to oversee and assist in the implementation of these commitments. Israel and Lebanon will report any violations of these commitments to the committee and to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Lebanon will deploy official security forces and the Lebanese Army along all border crossing points and the defined line for the southern zone, as outlined in the deployment plan. Israel will gradually withdraw from the southern zone of the Blue Line within a period of up to 60 days. The United States will enhance indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to achieve an internationally recognized delineation of the land border. Earlier today, US President Biden's advisor and special envoy, Hochstein, who was tasked with negotiating an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal, said that the truce between the two sides is permanent and will end hostilities. (Source: IRNA - Iran)
27 November 2024 The Israeli war on Lebanon has taken a heavy toll, with over 3,700 people killed since hostilities began in October 2023, and one million people displaced from areas where Hezbollah has a strong presence. The World Bank estimates economic losses and damage at $8.5 billion, and the road to recovery is expected to be long, with no clear answer on who will fund it. Hezbollah has also been severely impacted, with many of its leaders, including long-time head Nasrallah, killed and its infrastructure significantly damaged. The group's future post-war remains uncertain. Though weakened, as per US, Hezbollah has not been eradicated. Beyond being a militia, it is also a political party with a presence in Parliament and a social organisation with support among Shia Muslims. For months, critics of the group, particularly those outside its core support base, argued that Hezbollah had led the country into a war that was not in Lebanon's interest. While this truce might bring an end to Israel's war on the country, fear of a new internal conflict persists. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)
November 27, 2024, 8:01 AM A ceasefire has come into effect in Lebanon after more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. The deal, announced by Washington overnight, began at 4am local time and is designed to be a “permanent cessation of hostilities,” according to US President Biden. A joint statement with France outlined expectations for the agreement and is designed to guarantee a ceasefire on both sides. Here is the US-France statement in full: (Source: The National - United Arab Emirates)
(Wednesday), November 27, 2024 Israeli strikes late yesterday hit Lebanon’s three northern border crossings with Syria for first time, Lebanese Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport Hamieh says. The strikes came moments after US President Biden announced that a ceasefire would come into effect at 4:00 a.m. local time (0200 GMT) today to halt hostilities between Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and Israel. Hamieh said it was not immediately clear whether the roads had been cut off as a result of the strikes. Syrian state TV reported the Israeli strike hit the Arida and Dabousieh border crossings with Lebanon. Israeli raids on Lebanon’s eastern crossings in recent weeks had already sealed off those routes into Syria. It has previously stated that it targets what it says are Iran-linked sites in Syria as part of a broader campaign to curb the influence of Iran and its ally Hezbollah in the region. Separately, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said yesterday that it struck an Iranian-aligned militia weapons storage facility in Syria in response to an Iranian-aligned attack against US forces in the country on Monday. (Source: Business Recorder - Pakistan)
27/11/2024 - 06:34 A US-France-brokered ceasefire agreement to the 14-month conflict between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah came into power today morning, but Israel's vow to double down on its war in Gaza and focus on its main enemy, Iran, could soon challenge the deal's solidity. Some celebratory gunshots could be heard in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs. The ceasefire calls for an initial two-month halt to fighting and requires Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops are to return to their side of the border. Thousands of additional Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers would deploy in the south, and an international panel headed by the United States would monitor compliance. There appeared to be lingering disagreement over whether Israel would have the right to strike Hezbollah if it believed the militants had violated the agreement, something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted was part of the deal but which Lebanese and Hezbollah officials have rejected. Israel has said it will attack if Hezbollah breaks the agreement, and an Israeli military spokesman, in an Arabic-language X post in the first half-hour of the ceasefire, warned evacuated residents of southern Lebanon to not head home yet, saying the military remained deployed there. Any halt to the fighting in Lebanon is expected to reduce the likelihood of war between Israel and Iran. Netanyahu presented the ceasefire proposal to Cabinet ministers after a televised address in which he listed accomplishments against Israel’s enemies. He said a ceasefire with Hezbollah would further isolate Hamas in Gaza and allow Israel to focus on its main enemy, Iran. “If Hezbollah breaks the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack,” he said. “For every violation, we will attack with might.” Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed the ceasefire and described it as a crucial step toward stability and the return of displaced people. Hezbollah has said it accepts the proposal, but a senior official with the group said yesterday it had not seen the agreement in its final form. 'After reviewing the agreement signed by the enemy government, we will see if there is a match between what we stated and what was agreed upon by the Lebanese officials,' Qamati, deputy chair of Hezbollah’s political council, told. “We want an end to the aggression, of course, but not at the expense of the sovereignty of the state," he said. “Any violation of sovereignty is refused.” Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah is required to move its forces north of the Litani River, which in some places is about 30 kilometers north of the border. Even as ceasefire efforts gained momentum in recent days, Israel continued to strike what it called Hezbollah targets across Lebanon while the militants fired rockets, missiles and drones across the border. More than 3,760 people have been killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon the past 13 months, many of them civilians, according to Lebanese health officials. The bombardment has driven 1.2 million people from their homes. Israel says it has killed more than 2,000 Hezbollah members. Hezbollah fire has forced some 50,000 Israelis to evacuate in the country’s north, and its rockets have reached as far south in Israel as Tel Aviv. At least 75 people have been killed, more than half of them civilians. More than 50 Israeli soldiers have died in the ground offensive in Lebanon. (Source: France 24 - France / AP - U.S.)
Turkey
27.11.2024 The US revised its position on the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye after witnessing its progress with its domestically developed KAAN fighter jet, Turkish National Defense Minister Guler said addressing the Turkish Parliament's Planning and Budget Commission yesterday. Guler also highlighted Ankara’s efforts to modernize the Air Force until the light combat aircraft HURJET and KAAN are operational. He announced a $1.4 billion payment for 40 US F-16 Block 70 Viper jets, adding Türkiye will modernize its 79 older F-16s in Turkish Aerospace Industries facilities. On Eurofighter Typhoon jets, Guler noted that Germany has issued the necessary permissions and procurement discussions continue. The national defense minister said that Türkiye purchased Russia’s S-400 missile system in line with the country's needs after no other country with such systems responded positively to Ankara's requests. Guler confirmed that the S-400 systems are deployment-ready and operational within 12 hours if needed. Underlining that it is an air defense system, Guler said that Türkiye would only use it in case of a "very high level of danger." Regarding the latest status of the domestic air defense systems, he said not all of these systems have been completed. "SIPER 1 (long-range surface-to-air missile) was produced and entered the inventory with a range of 100 kilometers. Now, the second and third SIPERs will follow immediately," he said. "In order to provide air defense for our country, we will need not one but several Steel Domes, and these are already being produced," he added. /Photo/ (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)
North America
United States
Wednesday 27 November 2024 17:13 GMT 'President Biden's administration is urging Ukraine to increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and allowing for the conscription of troops as young as 18'. Speaking to reporters, a senior Biden administration official said today that the outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 from the current age of 25 to help expand the pool of fighting age men available to help a badly outmanned Ukraine in its nearly three-year-old war with Russia. The official said 'the Ukrainians' believe they need about 160,000 additional troops, but the U.S. administration believes they probably will need more. The White House has pushed more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia's February 2022 invasion and expects to send billions more to Kyiv before Biden leaves office in less than months. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)
November 27, 2024 What to expect from Trump II? Experience isn’t always a predictor of success for presidential administrations. From the standpoint of those of us who care about global peace and stability, who worry about whether the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East might spin out of control, Trump’s proposed team gives plenty of reasons for concern – but for reasons other than their lack of experience. Three principal schools of foreign policy are in the United States: neoconservatism, liberal interventionism and realism. Neoconservatives view military force and the threat of military force as the solution to nearly every problem. The conservative thinker Kirk once noted that neocons 'mistook Tel Aviv for the capital of the United States'. Liberal interventionists, by and large, are the people who staff the Biden administration. The policies they favor have become hard to distinguish from those that the neocons want – the big difference is that they pay lip service to multilateral institutions such as the UN and couch their militarism in the vocabulary of humanitarianism. Both neocons and liberal interventionists share what de Gaulle, once described as “the American Messianic impulse which swelled the American spirit and oriented it toward vast undertakings,” and America had developed, 'a taste for interventions in which the instinct for domination cloaked itself.” Yet such impulses are anathema to the 3rd school of American foreign policy, realism. The primary difference between realism and the first two schools is that realists are able to distinguish between core and peripheral interests. Realists are critical of wars of choice which they see as too often counterproductive and indeed immoral. They also understand the imperative of achieving a stable balance of power and recognize dangers of unipolarity. There is a widely held assumption that Trump’s America First has some relationship in connection with the realist school. It is also often and wrongly assumed that “America First” is simply an updated brand of isolationism that was popular in the US in the 1930s. There is no point in not being honest with you. Given the makeup of his incoming national security team, Trump’s American First seems more and more like a marketing ploy – employing the rhetoric of realists for the purpose of disguising, laundering, camouflaging what are essentially neoconservative policies. In other words, America First is just neoconservatism in realist drag. We should expect a good amount of continuity with the policies of the Biden administration. On the war in Ukraine, Trump’s expectation that he and he alone will be able to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine smacks of unreality. Despite his oft-stated intention to end the war, it seems there is a real risk that he and his team might try to escalate it in an attempt to end it. After all it was he, in his first term, who sent Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, repeatedly sanctioned Russia, expelled Russian diplomats and appointed a hardline neocon as his Ukraine Envoy. Now a few from team Trump have criticized Biden’s recent decision to sent ATACM long range missiles to Ukraine, but honestly, given their past comments, the criticism smacks of partisan opportunism. It would hard to imagine Trump doing a worse job than Biden did in the Middle East. But where will the blank check Trump will no doubt hand over to Bibi Netanyahu lead? It could very well lead to a direct war with Iran. And Israel’s neighbors seem to be readying for some kind of confrontation. In the year and a half since China brokered the historic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has accused Israel of genocide and forcefully condemned Netanyahu’s bombing of Lebanon. Only recently, the chief of the Egyptian armed forces met with his Turkish counterpart for talks on deepening military cooperation between the two nations. Turkey has also just announced it has severed all diplomatic ties with Israel. Trump’s soon to be national security adviser has been publicly calling for Israel to escalate its war on Iran. In October he suggested that Israel bomb Kharg Island, from where Iran ships 90 percent of its oil exports. Neoconservatives in Washington have been busy spreading pernicious propaganda - similar to the kind they spread in the run up to the 2003 Iraq War. A neoconservative operative at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recently published a report that accused Iran of developing a new kind of chemical weapon. “Iran,” says the report, 'now appears to have produced fentanyl-based' chemical weapon which they have allegedly provided to partners and proxy groups in Iraq and Syria. De Gaulle once wrote that “Deliberation is the function of many; action is the function of one.” Ultimately, it is up to Trump to decide whether to allow the neoconservatives to drag us into a war with Iran – a war which has the very real potential – to ignite a world war. I wish I had a happier scenario to present – (Source: Antiwar)
By Carden, a columnist and former adviser to the US-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission at the U.S. Department of State.
Note: „Remarks at the Yerevan Dialogue on November 23. Reprinted with permission from the American Committee for US-Russia Accord (ACURA)”.
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