Egyik 19

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Europe

Hungary
(Sunday, 29 September 2024)  “We probably wouldn’t have done what President Zelensky did two and a half years ago, because it’s irresponsible,” Orbán, the political director to the Hungarian prime minister (and of no relation to him) said in a podcast interview he gave on Wednesday. “Because obviously he put his country into a war defense, all these people died, all this territory was lost - again, it’s their right, it’s their sovereign decision, they had the right to do it. But if we had been asked, we would not have advised it.” He also said: “From ’56 we learned that we must handle the very valuable Hungarian lives with care. They cannot just be thrown away in front of others like that.” Whatever his intentions may have been, the implication was twofold: the Ukrainians should not have resisted, and the Hungarian Uprising of 1956 was a futile effort. Orbán is now doing damage control. “The heroes of ’56 are national heroes, their memory is sacred and unassailable, those heroes were right and did the right thing,” the political director said in a video released on Thursday. Back in March, his new book, Hussar Cut: The Hungarian Strategy for Connectivity, outlined Hungarian 'grand strategy” for a multipolar world. He rejects what he views as a kind of neo-romanticism that needlessly places the western “democracies' at odds with “autocracies', advocating instead for a foreign policy grounded in realism, not ideological lecturing. In the new cold war between the West and its rivals, Hungary does not have to take sides. His vision is to implement “a connectivity strategy” in which Hungary looks out for its best interests by extending in as many different directions as possible. By doing so, he told, it may become a 'keystone state,” that can absorb the tensions of opposing blocs and de-escalate global conflicts. Withdrawing from Western alliances would contradict this strategy’s principles. Brexit was a disaster for Hungary, he said, because it eliminated a valuable counterweight from an EU structure that has grown progressively worse ever since. “We want to get involved in every kind of cooperation which is based on national interests. This is what we want.” (Source: thespectator *)
* The Spectator World

Austria
(Sunday), September 29, 2024  Following the parliamentary election, Austria's 'far-right' The Freedom Party (FPÖ) wins parliamentary vote, beating the conservative ÖVP for the first time. Over 6.3 million people of Austria's 9 million residents were eligible to vote. Immigration concerns and an economic downturn have dominated the electoral landscape. According to preliminary official results, the FPÖ garnered 29.2% of votes, followed by Chancellor Karl Nehammer's center-right conservative ÖVP at 26.48%. Under the election program titled "Fortress Austria," the FPÖ has called for more deportations of 'uninvited foreigners' and wants to suspend the right to asylum with an emergency law. They also urged ending sanctions against Russia. Former Interior minister Kickl, the longtime campaign strategist has served as the head of the party since 2021. Under his leadership, the party has seen its popularity rebound on voter anger and anxieties over COVID restrictions, migration, inflation and the Ukraine war. A day ahead of the election, three of its senior leaders attended a funeral which included a song popular among the Nazis. A video showing the FPÖ politicians at the funeral was published in the local media. During the campaign, Nehammer sought to portray FPÖ's Kickl as a toxic extremist and said he would not be working with him, but signaled the conservatives could cooperate with the FPÖ as a whole. The 'center-left' Social Democrats got 21.05% of the votes. The Greens, who are part of the current governing coalition with the conservatives, secured 8.03% of support. The FPÖ now has the most seats in the new Austrian parliament. Today evening, FPÖ leader Kickl said his party was ready to negotiate with other political forces. The 'far-right' party does not have enough seats to form a government on its own and would require a coalition. The Social Democrats have already ruled out such an agreement, but the ÖVP has not -  the party previously ruled in a coalition with the FPÖ, but one in which it was the majority partner. A three-way coalition between the conservatives, Social Democrats and the liberal Neos could also be a possibility. The head of Germany's 'far-right' AfD party, Weidel, congratulated FPÖ after the projections were published. The German party, which shares large elements of its ideology with FPÖ, also marked major strides in three separate state elections in Germany earlier this month. (Source: dw, 'AFP, dpa')

Baltics
September 29 2024 14:03:23  NATO members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland will seek European Union funding to build a network of bunkers, barriers, distribution lines and military warehouses along their borders with Russia and Belarus. The defense ministers of the four European countries located on NATO's eastern flank met in the southeastern Latvian city of Daugavpils on Sept. 27 to discuss the project's funding. They noted in a joint statement that “Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown that creating physical obstacles on an open ground with no natural defensive cover is paramount even in technologically advanced warfare.” The three Baltic countries initially announced the plan for a ’Baltic Defense Line’ in January. In May, Poland announced a similar project called the ’Eastern Shield’ with a purpose to strengthen its borders with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and with Belarus. (Source: hurriyetdailynews)

Russia
29.9.2024 11:50 AM  Russian air defenses have shot down 125 Ukrainian drones, according to the country's Defense Ministry. The border regions of Belgorod and Rostov were particularly targeted. Authorities in the southwestern city of Voronezh reported damage from falling debris. Fires also reportedly broke out. No one was hurt. The Bryansk, Kursk and Krasnodar regions were also attacked in isolated cases. At dawn, Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine had been hit by 10 Russian strikes that destroyed a multi-story building, several houses and wounded at least 16 people. (Source: dw)

Ukraine
(Sunday), 29/09/2024 - 13:01  Russian forces hit a medical center in Sumy in northeastern Ukraine yesterday morning then struck again as the building was being evacuated, killing nine people and injuring 20 others, Ukrainian officials said. Ukrainian prosecutors said that at the time of the attacks, 86 patients and 38 staff members were in the hospital. (Source: france24)

Asia

Syria
(Sunday), 19:12 UTC+8, 2024-09-29  At least 17 people, including four Syrian fighters affiliated with Iran-backed militias, were killed in a series of unidentified airstrikes on Syria's eastern province of Deir al-Zour and surrounding areas today. (Source: shine / Xinhua)

North America

United States
Sep 29th, 2024, 3:07 pm  "Democracy is over' if Trump is not elected to a second term, Musk claimed. He wrote: "Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it! Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting as fast as humanly possible, that would be about 2 million new legal voters in 4 years. The voting margin in the swing states is often less than 20 thousand votes. That means if the 'Democratic' Party succeeds, there will be no more swing states!! Moreover, the Biden/Harris administration has been flying “asylum seekers', who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election. America then becomes a one-party state and Democracy is over. The only “elections' will be the Democratic Party primaries. This already happened in California many years ago, following the 1986 amnesty. The only thing holding California back from extreme socialism and suffocating government policies is that people can leave California and still remain in America. Once the whole country is controlled by one party, there will be no escape. Everywhere in America will be like the nightmare that is downtown San Francisco'. Musk’s claim was in response to a tweet from Sen. MLee (R-UT) that claimed 'thousands of noncitizen voter files' were being found nationwide resulting in Democrats attempting to prevent states from purging ineligible voters from their rolls. (Source: mediaite)

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Europe

North Macedonia
28.09.2024  "The Western Balkans deserve much more than they have received from Brussels so far. I want to say that these countries should have become EU members long ago," Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán said in a news conference in North Macedonia's capital, Skopje, where he met his counterpart, Hristijan Mickosk, emphasizing the importance of keeping Western Balkan countries’ EU membership on the agenda. "North Macedonia has been a candidate for EU membership together with Croatia since 2005. "Since then, Croatia has become an EU member, but negotiations with North Macedonia have not yet started. This is a huge mistake for the EU, and I can describe it as a historic mistake," said Orbán. He said he suggested to Mickoski that Hungary could mediate a dispute between North Macedonia and Bulgaria, provided both are willing. Bulgaria has been obstructing North Macedonia’s EU accession efforts, accusing it of disregarding historical and cultural ties. Sofia’s demands include the recognition that the Macedonian language is derived from Bulgarian and the acknowledgment of a Bulgarian minority in North Macedonia. Mickoski, in turn, reaffirmed North Macedonia's commitment to advancing its EU membership process and resolving ongoing issues. Due to Bulgaria’s pressure, the EU membership processes for North Macedonia and Albania have been separated. The first chapter of Albania's EU accession negotiations is set to open Oct. 15. (Source: anadoluagency)

Russia
September 28, 2024  The Russian Military isn't bluffing. The Russians, having committed to military reform, have a long-term strategic goal - Russia embarked on the State Armament Program from 2011 to 2020, focussing on modern reequipment, for both strategic and ground forces. NATO forces, on the other hand, are inexperienced and beset by political divisions. The question facing NATO is how quickly and with what quality the Russians can improve their military capability. The German chief of defense, Breuer, estimated in April that 'a Russian attack could be five to eight years away'. The Norwegian chief of staff, Kristoffersen, was quoted this month as saying that ’NATO has only two or three years to equip itself to face a strengthening Russian military’. The Russian forces have a great deal of experience in practice: Crimea, Syria, and the war in eastern Ukraine. The move away from a conscripted force toward a professional cadre has been on the whole, successful. Despite the excursion into Kursk, the Russian military, despite large troop losses in Ukraine, is able to reconstitute its forces. Ukrainian intelligence suggests the Russians can replenish forces by up to 30,000 per month. Inadequate training of troops, however, will mean that Russia may not see significant breakthroughs in 2024. Nevertheless, Putin's February 2024 decree incorporated the areas of occupation into the Southern Military District (SMD) which aims to provide, in Shoigu's phrase, “self-sufficient groupings of troops.” This, in effect, means a permanent Russian military command structure in Ukraine. Despite its robust performance, such as ground force losses in Ukraine, the most serious problem Russia faces in the future, is how to sustain equipment levels. Despite having improved its precision-guided targeting abilities, the necessity to fulfill equipment shortages will need a constant supply of support from allies such as Iran and North Korea. Russia's policy will struggle with increasing technology sanctions from the West. Chatham House notes Russia's particular skill in bypassing sanctions. A key factor of Western strategy will be to curtail the technological inputs into Russia's Military Industrial Complex. This could see a decline in the military-industrial functionality in Russia. Recapitalization of hardware and slowing innovation will hamper the Russian military build-up. The overall geopolitical situation is complicated. The looming prospect of deindustrialization in Europe - particularly in Germany from years of outsourcing to China and the high cost of energy - could lead to the collapse of the European Union project for Europe, it makes an expensive base for future industrial production. This will have knock-on consequences for the industrial military reboot of European security. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Bolger, University of Liverpool. He is an adviser to several Think Tanks and Corporates on Geopolitical Issues. He has taught political philosophy and applied linguistics in universities across Europe. His new book - ‘Nowhere Fast: Democracy and Identity in the Twenty First Century' is published now.

Asia

Iran
(Saturday), Sep 28, 2024, 10:00 AM  US Secretary of State Blinken has called for a path to diplomacy as Israel intensified its strikes in Lebanon. "The choices that all parties make in the coming days will determine which path this region is on, with profound consequences for its people now and possibly for years to come”. "The most important thing to do through diplomacy is to try first to stop firing in both directions and then to use the time that we would have in such a ceasefire to see if we can reach a broader diplomatic agreement," Blinken told on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York yesterday. He reiterated the Biden administration's position that the US is still gathering information regarding Israel's recent military attacks on southern Beirut on Friday. Israel has pounded Lebanon since Monday morning, killing over 700 people and injuring nearly 2,200 others, according to figures released by the Lebanese Health Ministry. The ministry also said that the death toll in Lebanon since last October is 1,540, in addition to more than 77,000 displaced from southern and eastern parts of the country. Israel's tensions with Lebanon have continued since its genocidal war started on Gaza in October last year. Relentless Israeli bombing has killed more than 41,500 people, mostly women and children till date. (Source: en.mehrnews / MNA)

Lebanon
(Saturday), September 28, 2024  The US State Department today ordered the families of embassy personnel in Beirut to leave the country and authorized the departure of some staff, as the Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates. The department ordered the departure 'due to the increased volatility following airstrikes within Beirut and the volatile and unpredictable security situation throughout Lebanon,' it said. All US citizens were urged to leave "while commercial options still remain available." (Source: barrons / Agence France Presse)

(Saturday), 28/09/2024 - 17:25  What will mean for Lebanon as well as for the broader Middle East the death of longtime Hezbollah chief Nasrallah? Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is returning from New York where he was attending the UN General Assembly, will hold an exceptional cabinet meeting today evening focused on Nasrallah's death. The official stance of the Lebanese government has been to seek a de-escalation and the full implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Nasrallah's death and the continued bombardment of Beirut – the most severe of the past year – is fueling fears that cross-border tensions are on the verge of exploding into a wider conflict. The Lebanese population is sharply divided on the role Hezbollah plays in their politics. Some 30 percent of the population professing significant trust in the movement. Others are deeply resentful, wanting a Lebanon free from sectarian conflict. As an organisation, Hezbollah has in recent months been "significantly downgraded in military capability, leadership. Iran-backed Hezbollah did not enjoy support among Iran's regional rivals. There is even a sense of "relief" – 'hidden joy' ? – in some capitals following news of Nasrallah's death, with Hezbollah viewed as a destabilising force by many in the region's Arab capitals. None of the conservative Arab states have been particularly fond of Hezbollah which now faces the challenge of choosing a new leader after suffering the heaviest casualties of its 42-year history. Iran, for its part, announced five days of national mourning following Hezbollah leader Nasrallah's death, which "will not go unavenged', Supreme Leader Khamenei said in the statement on state television. General Nilforushan, a prominent member of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, died in the same airstrike that killed Nasrallah. Tehran's doctrine is of strategic patience, whereby they play the long game. Are they reluctant to engage Israel in any direct way? No reaction risks undermining Iranian credibility as an "Axis of Resistance' power and a deterrence against Israel. Tehran will seek to restabilize Hezbollah and rebuild its force. Nasrallah led the group for 32 years. The man widely regarded as his chosen heir, successor, Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah's and – like him – a cleric, the head of the group's executive council, who wears the black turban denoting a descendent of the Prophet Mohammed. The US State Department designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017. He oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs. Safieddine also sits on the Jihad Council, which manages military operations. His public statements often reflect Hezbollah’s militant stance and its alignment with the Palestinian cause. He has been vocal in his criticism of US policy. ’This mentally impeded, crazy US administration headed by Trump will not be able to harm the resistance, he said in 2017 in response to US pressure on Hezbollah, adding that the US moves would only strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve. (Source: france24 "with Reuters")

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Asia

China
September 27, 2024 4:56 pm (EST)  China and Russia have strengthened ties. We can anticipate continuing advances in cooperation in the coming months.       Ukraine: China continues to forward peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine. In late August, China’s Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs Li urged more countries to support the peace plan created with Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa in May. Russian President Putin endorsed China’s peace efforts by stating that China, Brazil, and India could serve as mediators. In a meeting with the Russian Security Council secretary on September 11, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang promised to promote “rational voices” to create the conditions for a possible political settlement in Ukraine. That message was echoed at Beijing’s Xiangshan Forum, an annual security conference in China, in speeches by Chinese Defense Minister Dong and Foreign Vice Minister Chen. President Zelenskyy dismissed Brazil and China’s efforts as ’destructive,’ claiming in an interview on September 12 that their peace initiative was disrespectful to Ukraine and its territorial integrity. Tensions between China and the United States over the war in Ukraine increased in September. On August 30, China’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Geng called on the United States to “make real efforts to promote peace” at a meeting of the UN Security Council. Shuang later criticized the United States for escalating the conflict and disrupting international and regional peace by continuing to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. In response, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell accused China of providing “substantial” support for Russia’s war effort that is being directed by top Chinese leadership. The U.S. Deputy Assistance Secretary of Defense Chase raised the issue directly with Defense Minister Jun during talks on September 15. Those heightened tensions follow the United States’ imposition of sanctions in August on hundreds of Chinese entities for supporting Russia’s military efforts. On September 24, Ukraine’s Presidential Advisor Vlasiuk told that China is supplying roughly 60 percent of the foreign made components for Russian weapons used in Ukraine. European intelligence indicates a subsidiary of a Russian state-owned weapons manufacturer has established a factory in China to produce long-range attack drones to use in the war in Ukraine.       Diplomatic relations: After Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov warned, on September 1, that the country would change its nuclear policy in response to the supposed escalation of Western involvement in Ukraine, China reaffirmed its stance against using nuclear weapons. Taiwanese President Lai recently suggested that China’s territorial claims over Taiwan are driven by a desire to reshape global order rather than by genuine territorial integrity. He pointed out that China should reclaim territories lost to Russia in the nineteenth century if it is truly motivated by territorial concerns. In response, Russian officials criticized Lai, emphasizing that Russia and China settled their border disputes in a 2004 agreement and expressing support for China’s stance on Taiwan. Chinese leader Xi is set to visit Russia next month for the BRICS summit in Kazan, marking his second trip since February 2022. Beijing has supported Russia’s claim that the West provoked the conflict. Xi’s visit highlights the deepening economic and military ties between China and Russia, amid Western sanctions and geopolitical tensions. At the Xiangshan Forum on September 13, Chinese and Russian defense officials criticized the West, with China advocating for stronger military ties with developing nations and Russia accusing the United States of escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific. The forum also addressed recent military developments, including the transit of German warships through the Taiwan Strait.       Financial tensions: Following U.S. threats of secondary sanctions, Chinese banks have begun halting transactions with Russia, causing tens of billions of yuan in payments to be frozen, complicating trade between the two countries. In the second quarter of 2024, the Bank of China cut its assets in Russia by 37 percent, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reduced theirs by 27 percent, citing payment difficulties. Russian companies are experiencing significant delays and increased costs in transactions with Chinese partners. Those actions have particularly affected smaller Russian companies, while major trade in commodities such as oil and grain is largely unchanged. Some Russian businesses are using intermediaries – which led to transaction costs rising to 6 percent from close to 0 percent - or alternative methods to circumvent the issues.       Uranium trade probe: The United States is investigating whether China is aiding Russia’s nuclear industry by importing Russian uranium and exporting its own to the United States, despite a recent U.S. ban on Russian enriched uranium. Since the ban’s enactment, China has sent large shipments of uranium to the United States. The situation has alarmed U.S. uranium producers, who fear China could be circumventing the ban to gain a bigger role in global uranium markets while continuing to rely on Russian supplies.       Vehicle ban: The U.S. Commerce Department hopes to ban connected vehicles with Chinese and Russian software or hardware by 2027 and 2030, respectively, due to national security concerns. The goal is to protect sensitive data and prevent potential remote control of vehicles. The rule would apply to vehicles driven on public roads but exclude specialized ones such as agricultural equipment.        Military cooperation: On September 10, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell had accused China of providing "very substantial" military assistance to Russia, including direct support for Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. That assistance reportedly includes advanced military technology. In return, Russia is sharing submarine, missile, and other sensitive technology with China. Campbell expressed concerns that those developments could pose a threat not only to the United States but also to other countries such as Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea. He urged Europe to take a firmer stance on China’s support for Russia, suggesting that increased scrutiny of the financial institutions involved could have significant impacts. On September 11, Russia stated that its partnership with China is not aimed at other countries but is a defensive measure against potential threats, particularly from the United States. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova emphasized that their strategic partnership is not aggressive but is intended to counteract potential U.S. military action, such as the possible deployment of missiles in Japan. The partnership, formalized in a no-limits deal in 2022, focuses on strategic cooperation but does not constitute a formal military alliance. China’s Defense Ministry has announced joint naval and air exercises with Russia, called the Northern United-2024 exercises, starting on September 21 in the Sea of Japan and his month in the Sea of Okhotsk. The drills aim to enhance strategic cooperation and address security threats. The Defense Ministry will also conduct joint naval cruises in the Pacific and participate in Russia’s Great Ocean-24 exercise for the fifth time. On September 9, Kirby, a National Security Council spokesperson, described the drills as long planned and not a cause for concern. The exercises come amid a perceived sea power gap in the western Pacific, with some U.S. aircraft carriers diverted from the region. (Source: cfr *)
* Council on Foreign Relations

Iraq
9:16 PM CEST, September 27, 2024  The U.S. announced an agreement with the Iraqi government today to wrap up the military mission in Iraq of an American-led coalition fighting the islamic state group by next year, with U.S. troops departing some bases that they have long occupied during a two-decade-long military presence in the country. In the first phase, which runs through September 2025, the coalition mission against isis will end and forces will leave some longstanding bases. In the second phase, the U.S. will continue to operate in some fashion from Iraq through 2026 to support counter-isis operations in Syria. But the Biden administration refused to provide details on how many of the approximately 2,500 U.S. troops still serving in Iraq will remain there or acknowledge it will mark a full withdrawal from the country. Ultimately, the U.S. military mission would transition to a bilateral security relationship. The Iraqi officials said some American troops may stay at Hareer base after 2026 because the Kurdistan regional government would like them to stay.Bases housing U.S. forces and contractors have been regularly targeted by Iran-backed militias over the last several years, and those attacks intensified late last year and early this spring after the Israel-Hamas war broke out nearly a year ago. For years, Iraqi officials have periodically called for a withdrawal of coalition forces, and formal talks to wind down the U.S. presence in the country have been going on for months. Iraq has long struggled to balance its ties with the U.S. and Iran, both allies of the Iraqi government but regional archenemies. The presence of American forces in Iraq makes it more difficult for Iran to move weapons across Iraq and Syria into Lebanon, for use by its proxies, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, against Israel. The agreement marks the third time in the last two decades that the U.S. has announced a formal transition of the military’s role there. (Source: apnews)

North America

United States
September 27, 2024  Ukraine’s desperate 'Victory Plan.' UK prime minister Keir Starmer recently visited U.S. president Biden to approve a green light to Kyiv. Several European countries, including Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden, and Finland support the UK. In contrast, German chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out permission for Ukraine to use its Taurus cruise missiles. Kyiv wants permission to fire long-range missiles (300-400km) into Russia. President Zelensky visited Washington this week to pitch his “victory plan,” which involves deep strikes and new weaponry. Will the United States greenlight Ukrainian “deep strikes” into Russia? The Biden administration appears very cautious while it weighs the costs, risks, and benefits of long-range strike approval. There is a sense of déjà vu here. We have seen similar “sagas” of Western weapon supplies throughout this war. Recall the hesitancy to send HIMARS, then NATO tanks, ATACMS, and F-16s. Each time, America and Germany demonstrated reluctance only later to agree. While these stories keep Ukraine in the news cycle, in military-strategic terms, it is far from a success. Kyiv’s desire for Western approval for long-range strikes within Russia will not bring about anything close to a decisive victory for Ukraine. Giving too little, too late has been the recurring theme of the West’s dysfunctional support of Ukraine’s war effort. NATO weapons systems are expensive and in short supply. Drip-feeding them to Ukraine means they can only be used in sporadic and indecisive ways. In addition, this approach provides Russia with a sandbox environment in which to study Western weapons and work out technical countermeasures. Having adapted to each wave of NATO weaponry deployed against it, Russia continues its grinding and methodical war of attrition. There are increasing signs that Ukraine is reaching a breaking point. Kyiv insists on permission for deep strikes, claiming this can stem the tide. The Biden administration has good reason to doubt the effectiveness of deep strikes. The range of Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles is around 300km. They cannot threaten Russia’s military-industrial heartlands, energy system, or wider war-making capacity with strategic bombing on a mass scale. On the tactical and operational level, however, such strikes can cause significant inconvenience to Russia. Such missiles can hit Russian bases, supply dumps, transport, and energy systems in the logistical rear of the frontlines. This could disrupt Russia’s progress in the Donbas for some period. But can Ukraine really be supplied with enough of these costly missiles to slow Russia for a long enough time? And how will this stop Russia’s ongoing destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid and its deepening humanitarian tragedy? How do deep strikes solve the problem of Ukraine’s shrinking population or the lack of basic military materiel to equip Ukrainian brigades and hold the line? Zelensky is looking for escalation permission, as Ukraine runs out of time and options. Washington is worried about the bigger picture. They know approving deep strikes may not only derail chances for peace negotiations - 'an option Washington wants to keep open" — but also open a Pandora’s box of escalation scenarios. Putin has declared that a greenlight for Ukraine’s deep strikes would mean 'the United States, NATO, and the European countries are at war with Russia,' which would take 'suitably matched' countermeasures. Alongside Russia’s new and less restrictive nuclear doctrine, what might these be? On September 16, the Houthis successfully hit central Israel with a long-range ballistic missile for the first time. It is unknown who supplied them with this missile system. If Moscow sends the Houthis Iskander (400km range) ballistic weapons or Zircon (range 1000km) hypersonic missiles, it could spark a massive escalation in the Middle East. U.S. naval assets in the Red Sea would suddenly be very vulnerable. Their sinking would transmit a shocking message of U.S. weakness in the region at a critical time. Russia could also try to bring the war home to Europeans, whose taxes pay a large part of Ukraine’s war effort. The most extreme scenario would be if Russia retaliated with deep strikes on Ukraine’s own logistical rear, which is partly located on the territory of NATO members Poland and Romania. The triggering of Article 5, whether intentional or not, would lead to a critical moment of decision. Would the United States follow through with a devasting conventional strike on Crimea? Would Russia then use tactical nuclear weapons as its final attempt to restore deterrence? "Thankfully, there is reason to believe' that Washington sees these dangers and will work with Moscow to manage the risks. This clearly disgusts a great deal of analysts and commentators in the West who are gung-ho about deep strikes and united in seeing Russia as a paper tiger whose bluffs can be ignored. The historians of the future will likely commend the restraint of the Biden administration. It has kept the world safe from unpredictable escalation between two nuclear powers. 'Even if deep strikes are greenlighted, Washington will ensure they come too late and be on too small a scale' to help Ukraine. It is at this point that Biden and the company will also be judged less favorably by the same historians. Their policy of limited support is failing, and Kyiv cannot achieve success within the parameters imposed upon them. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Blackburn, a Senior Researcher in Norwegian Institute of International Affairs’ (NUPI) Research Group on Russia, Asia and International Trade. He is also an affiliated researcher at the Institute of Russian and Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University. He is engaged in research on Iran-Russia-China cooperation for the Norwegian Geopolitics Centre and is a research coordinator for the Civilizationalism Project based at Stanford University.

(26.9.2024 18:00)  The US, EU and Kyiv all lambasted Russian President Putin's plans to amend Russia's nuclear deterrence doctrine in a manner which might consider a 'massive' aerial attack on Russia supported by a nuclear state as a 'joint attack,' even if the attacker is a non-nuclear state. The update was proposed yesterday by President Putin, who has the right to pass it. Putin gave the example of Russia receiving "reliable information of a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border,' as a case where Russia might consider nuclear retaliation. It is seen as a clear reference to Ukraine, as Kyiv presses its Western allies to grant it permission to use the long-range weapons they provide to strike deep within Russia. US Secretary of State Blinken criticized the proposed amendment on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly today as 'totally irresponsible'. 'Russia has nothing left but nuclear blackmail; it has no other instruments to intimidate the world', Yermak, head of the president's office, wrote yesterday evening. He said attempts to spread fear would not work. European Union foreign policy spokesman Stano rejected the plan as 'reckless and irresponsible.' The Kremlin meanwhile defended the move, describing it as a warning to the west. (Source: dw)

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Hungary
September 27, 2024 10:22 am CET  Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said yesterday that Budapest is keen to strengthen economic ties with Moscow, despite ongoing European Union sanctions against Russia. “Apart from the fact that we do not like the sanctions regime - although there are European rules that we have to comply with -  we are very open about our desire to improve economic relations between Russia and Hungary in all areas that are not affected by sanctions,” Szijjártó told TASS news agency on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Szijjártó then referred to a Hungarian-Russian Economic Cooperation Committee meeting held in Budapest last week, which was attended by Russian Health Minister Murashko. “We also held a business forum, in which 173 entrepreneurs from both sides took part. For me, this shows that there is not only a political desire to improve economic relations, but business also wants this,” he said. Hungary’s vocal opposition to EU sanctions against Russia, its interest in strengthening economic ties with Moscow were leading to tensions between Brussels and Budapest. 'EU foreign ministers and finance ministers recently boycotted EU meetings held in Budapest in September, sending a message of growing frustration about Hungary’s attitude toward Russia'. (Source: politico)

Finland
27 September 2024  The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, O’Flaherty, has called on Finland to continue to honour its strong track record of promoting and defending human rights, following a visit to the country from 23 to 26 September, which focused on the situation of Roma and issues related to migration and asylum. During his visit, the Commissioner engaged with Roma communities and listened to their concerns about the discrimination they experience in different areas of life. Amidst a climate of rising racism in Finnish society, representatives from the Roma communities conveyed how antigypsyism impacts their daily interactions and access to social rights, including housing, education and employment. The Commissioner also notes that, despite a comprehensive legal framework protecting the rights of Roma, and ambitious national action plans, implementation in practice sometimes falls behind. The Commissioner is particularly concerned about the situation of the group known as “migrant EU Roma” who have immigrated mainly from eastern Europe. Without effective access to the labour and housing market and full access to social services, they often experience homelessness, and live in destitution. On the subject of migration, and following his letter to the Finnish Parliament and several committee chairs of 11 June 2024, the Commissioner sought through his visit to gain a deeper understanding of the situation at the eastern border and regarding the recently-adopted Act on Temporary Measures to Combat Instrumentalised Migration. Under this law, the government can, under certain conditions, temporarily restrict the reception of asylum applications and summarily remove migrants at or near the border, if they consider that migration flows are being instrumentalised by a foreign state. The Commissioner recognises the serious challenges faced by Finland because of the manipulation of migration on the part of a neighbouring state. Such manipulation also is to be condemned for placing already vulnerable individuals in situations of precarity. He appreciates the need for and the legitimacy of ensuring security at Finland’s borders. However, the Commissioner remains of the view that the temporary measures, if ever implemented, would entail a violation of several international obligations, including the principle of nonrefoulement, the prohibition of collective expulsion and access to effective remedies. Furthermore, taking into account experience of other states across the world, the Commissioner is unconvinced that, in the longer term the temporary measures would fulfil their intended purpose of thwarting instrumentalisation of migration and the activities of migrant smugglers. While acknowledging the considerable efforts being made by the border guards and others, the Commissioner is concerned about the feasibility of carrying out such complex assessments in compliance with human rights, especially in view of the summary manner in which they are foreseen and lacking other safeguards, such as access to judicial review and remedies with suspensive effect. The Commissioner welcomes and encourages Finland’s intention to continue seeking, at the regional level, long term, coordinated solutions to challenges relating to border security and instrumentalisation of migration. (Source: m.coe.int/finland-end-of-visit-statement)

Greece
September 27, 2024 09:33  Like Poland with its reinforced border with Belarus, countries like Greece, as the first point of contact for many migrants, are seeking to enhance their protection of the European Union’s external borders. Amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East and an increase in migration from Turkey in recent months, Athens recently resubmitted a request to the EU for financial support to further extend the fence. The Greek government has reaffirmed its commitment to extending the border fence with Turkey, designed to curb illegal migration, despite objections from the European Commission. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis had previously made it clear that the fence would be built regardless of whether EU funding is secured, stating, “The new fence will be built with or without the European Union.” The construction of the fence began in 2012 and has since been expanded using national funds. It has drawn renewed attention following Germany’s tougher stance on migration and Hungary’s vocal opposition to the controversial EU migration pact, as well as Budapest’s call to be reimbursed by Brussels for its own border fence. The request was swiftly declined by Brussels, which reiterated its opposition to financing physical barriers such as fences. “Member states must protect the EU’s external borders. They are in the best position to decide how to achieve this in practice, in a way that is fully in line with the EU acquis (body of law), including respect for fundamental rights,’ a Commission spokesperson said in response. Further diplomatic efforts, at least on a bilateral basis, took place earlier this week in New York between Mitsotakis and Turkish President Erdoğan where the pair agreed to continue cooperating in the fight against smuggling networks, a key driver of irregular migration. (Source: rmx *)
* Remix

Sweden
September 27, 2024 4:00 am CET  "Swedish conditions'. Sweden’s security situation risks undermining the reputation of the country at home and abroad. Gang crime is the biggest policy challenge facing the Swedish government today. Some 195 shootings and 72 bombings have taken 30 lives this year alone and have undermined Swedish citizens’ sense of security across the country. Sweden’s domestic crisis is spilling over into neighboring states. Norwegian police believe that 'Swedish drug gangs' are now operating in all of Norway’s 12 police districts after recently expanding operations. Meanwhile, an increasing flow of 'Swedish' criminals into nearby Denmark has been reported by Danish authorities, who note that many of the recruits are very young. In early September, Danish police charged two Swedish teenagers with attempted murder, saying they had been hired by cooperating 'Swedish' and 'Danish' organized crime gangs. The police said they are currently working around 25 similar cases. Denmark’s Hummelgaard called Sweden’s Justice Minister Strömmer to Copenhagen for emergency talks over the issue in late August. To be called out by its Scandinavian neighbors is a shocking and humbling development for Sweden, a country long seen as a European bastion of social stability. After the meeting, Strömmer acknowledged the validity of concerns about 'Swedish' gang criminality affecting its neighbors, along with how "Sweden needs to do more to stop the problem at source". It has increased sentences for gun offenses and is looking at lowering the age at which criminals can be held responsible for their actions. It has also rolled out a new system of stop-and-search zones. But the crackdown has yet to have a serious impact, and the shootings and bomb attacks targeting gang members and their families continue both in Sweden - and abroad. Over recent months, 'Swedish' gangsters have been shot dead by rivals in Bosnia, Turkey and Iraq. (Source: politico)

European Parliament
(27 9 2024)  Hungary holds the Presidency of the Council until December 2024 included. Ministers are holding a series of meetings in parliamentary committees to present the priorities of the Hungarian Presidency of the Council. Hungarian Presidency debriefs EP committees on priorities.       On 19 September, European Union Affairs Minister Bóka highlighted the need to reform the EU for upcoming enlargement and told MEPs that the Presidency envisions two ministerial-level discussions on the future of Europe. He raised concerns about maintaining interinstitutional balance when reforming the Framework Agreement between the EP and the Commission and mentioned the transparency of interest representation, EU accession to the European Court of Human Rights, and the EU Ethics Body as other priorities.    MEPs debated issues including the Hungarian government’s stance on EU values and its compliance with EU Court of Justice judgments. Many speakers raised concerns on the Prime Minister’s recent visits to Moscow and Beijing, while others advocated enhancing national authorities’ role in EU decision-making. Hungary’s announcement that it will seek an opt-out from migration rules and its national assembly’s position that European elections should be abolished were also discussed.       On 23 September, Raisz, Secretary of State for Environmental Affairs and Circular Economy, said the Presidency would push for a more competitive Europe while addressing the triple challenge of reducing pollution, mitigating climate change, and preserving biodiversity.    MEPs quizzed the Minister on the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction target for 2040, the Clean Industrial Deal, COP29, recent floods in Europe, the circular economy, pollution, new genomic techniques, chemicals, the role of forests and soil monitoring.       Takács, Secretary of State for Health, highlighted, as priorities, adopting Council conclusions on cardiovascular diseases and renewing EU cooperation on organ donation and transplants. The Presidency also intends to adopt the updated Council recommendation on smoke-free environments and advance on the pharmaceutical package.    MEPs quizzed the Presidency on measures foreseen on rare diseases, equal access to medicines, shortages in the healthcare workforce, the competitiveness of the EU’s pharmaceutical industry as well as mRNA vaccines.       On 26 September Azbej, State Secretary for the Aid of Persecuted Christians, said that the Presidency would pay particular attention to the humanitarian-peace-development nexus, especially in the Sahel region. Mr Azbej also mentioned as priorities the implementation of the EU’s Samoa Agreement with the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific region, tacking the root causes of migration in partner countries, and supporting the Global Gateway initiative and the Team Europe approach to development.    MEPs raised questions about the credibility of the Presidency’s claims to advocate for human rights and democracy, given the rule of law concerns around the government as well as its ties with China and Russia. They also raised the importance of addressing the global persecution of Christians, and plans for closer cooperation with partner countries and countries of origin on returns and readmissions. (Source: europarl)

Russia
September 27, 2024  „Russia’s autumn conscription cycle starts on 1 October 2024. All eligible Russian men under the age of 30 are required to serve one year of military service”. “To date, conscripts have not been sent to fight in Ukraine. Since the start of the war in February 2022, Russian leaders have stated that conscripts will not be sent to the frontline”. “Legally, conscripts can serve in a combat zone if they have served four months and have been trained in a relevant specialization”. “However, Russia will likely continue to force conscripts to sign contracts following their completion of service to ensure a steady supply of personnel for the war amid high attrition rates,” British Military Intelligence concluded. Conscripts are typically restricted from combat zones, though some have been mistakenly deployed. The Kremlin has been trying to use men from low-income and immigrant backgrounds. Moscow has also recruited tens of thousands of convicts to fight in Ukraine. Putin is resisting calls to send conscripts to Ukraine, fearing domestic unrest. To maintain a steady flow of personnel, Russian leadership is pressuring conscripts to sign military contracts after their service. When it comes to Russia’s own territory, it is another matter. The Russian military has deployed conscripts to the Kursk Oblast to fight the Ukrainian forces there, causing uproar among families. Ukrainian units have captured dozens of Russian conscripts. Russian forces are taking very high casualties on a daily basis. Russia is currently recruiting fewer men than it loses, and that can soon create gaps on the line. (Source: nationalinterest)

United Kingdom
27.09.2024  With space and cyberspace becoming increasingly central in everyday life and a key factor contributing to success in combat, influence in the shared spaces will be yet another vital area of power," the ministry said in the seventh edition of its long-term foresight analysis "Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055."
The report /456 p/:: https://tinyurl.com/vwaz7xz7

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Felismeréseim

- film Jelenits tanár úr pályájáról -

(Forrás: youtube / mediaklikk):

https://tinyurl.com/35m5bsda

Dóczy rendezésében készült Felismeréseim címmel film Jelenits tanár úr pályájáról, amely az életutat mutatja be,
Pilinszky Keresztről keresztre című írásának tükrében,
felhasználva Feszty piarista rendhez kapcsolódó képeit és
felmutatva az Eucharisztia létfontosságát

Jelenits István
(1932. december 16 – 2024. szeptember 26.)

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Europe

Hungary
September 26, 2024 4:06 PM CET  Orbán, the political director of his namesake (but no relation to him), was a guest on a podcast on yesterday where he talked about Ukraine's self-defense against Russian aggression. “Every country has the right to decide its own destiny, and leaders take responsibility,” Orbán said. “We probably wouldn't have done what President Zelenskyy did two and a half years ago, because it's irresponsible,” he said. 'Because obviously he put his country into a war defense, all these people died, all this territory was lost - again, it's their right, it's their sovereign decision, they had the right to do it. But if we had been asked, we would not have advised it.” According to Orbán: “We have to be careful here, and we have to be careful with very precious Hungarian lives. You cannot just throw them away in front of others.” “Hungary's position is clear: we see no sense in the Ukrainian-Russian war” in which hundreds of thousands of people have died 'for nothing.” Orbán has touched on a sensitive point in Hungarian history: October 1956, when a revolution broke out against the totalitarian communist regime, demanding democratization and exit of the Warsaw Pact. But in less than three weeks, Soviet troops invaded the country, and the struggle for freedom left 2,700 dead and 20,000 wounded; 176,000 people fled the country of less than 10 million after the fight was lost. In addition, the new communist regime that ruled Hungary for another 33 years after the Soviet invasion executed 229 civilians, including the prime minister during the revolution, Imre Nagy. (Source: politico)
by Körömi

September 26, 2024 10:58am EDT  Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó discussed with Fox News Digital the potential impact of a second Trump administration as well as hesitations over a Harris administration as the world remains in a fraught security situation. Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó revealed in an interview with Fox News Digital that former President Trump alone is his country’s "hope" for helping bring stability to a fraught and increasingly chaotic international security landscape. "We do believe that actually the game changer here can be the U.S. presidential election, in case President Trump wins," Szijjártó said, referring specifically to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "Because knowing Trump, I think it’s absolutely possible – absolutely likely – that with two phone calls he can end this conflict." "No one else can do so," he insisted. "I think only President Trump has the hope and our hope is all in President Trump to do this." "What we can definitely say is the following: „Politics is based on experience, and we have a clear experience about the term of President Trump in office, and we have clear experience from the terms when the Democrats were there," he said. "From the aspect of the U.S.-Hungary relations and from the aspect of the global security situation, when it comes to the U.S.-Hungary relations, it’s obvious that during President Trump[‘s term] these relations have been on the top – best ever," Szijjártó added. Orbán proved this is a mutual dynamic when he chose to leave the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., earlier this year to instead meet with Trump in Mar-a-Lago in Florida to discuss foreign relations. "Under President Trump, everything was under control," Szijjártó said. "Since President Trump has left office, the whole global security situation is deteriorating, so, I mean, these are experiences." "If we base it on our experience, we say yes, from a perspective of U.S.-Hungary relations, I think President Trump would bring another impetus, freshness, dynamism to this relationship, and I think if President Trump is elected, I think the world has a good chance to become a more peaceful place compared to the current situation." Szijjártó argued that "if you look at an administration which is led by a president and vice president, and we didn’t hear too much initiatives from the vice president … means to me that the vice president was part of the structure 100%." He noted that this comment came from a personal opinion "based on logic" and not the opinion of the Hungarian foreign minister. Hungary has attempted to pursue peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, positioning itself as a chief facilitator for resolving the conflict. Hungary assumed the presidency of the European Union as part of a rotating six-month structure. Orbán seized on the opportunity to visit both Russian President Putin and President Zelenskyy within the first days after taking the seat, but European leaders moved quickly to stress that the role is purely ceremonial and that Hungary had no official capacity to represent Europe in any peace talks. Szijjártó blasted those who criticized the Hungarian effort, claiming "those who have been criticizing us, the prime minister, the peace mission, have clearly been the pro-war politicians." "They just simply don't like that there is a country, there is a government, there is a prime minister in Europe who speaks direct language, who speaks honestly and who is not a hostage of the liberal mainstream," Szijjártó said. "Therefore, it is very unpleasant and inconvenient for them that we are there and that we act, that we speak, that we make actions." Szijjártó resisted the idea that Ukraine should join NATO, noting that "including Ukraine into NATO would put us in a totally exposed situation, security-wise, because it would mean that NATO could be easily dragged into a war against Russia at any time, and this is something that we don’t want." "Everyone knows that any kind of direct confrontation between NATO and Russia would mean an outbreak of Third World War immediately, and we have joined the NATO to enhance our security and not to make ourselves exposed," he said. /video, photo/ (Source: foxnews): https://tinyurl.com/yttx39xm
by Aitken

Russia
Sep 26, 2024 at 11:16 AM EDT  Authorities in Russia have said that Kyiv has fired drones into Russian regions bordering Ukraine in attacks that follow Putin's suggestion he wants to change the criteria for Moscow to use nuclear weapons. Putin told Russia's Security Council meeting yesterday that any aggression by a country without nuclear weapons 'with the participation of a nuclear state is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on Russia." ’Putin announced that Moscow may consider the use of nuclear weapons in response to a massive launch of missiles or drones crossing its state border’. The governor of Russia's Oryol, Klychkov, said that a Ukrainian drone had been shot down over the region overnight yesterday. Russia's Defense Ministry reported that seven drones had been destroyed over the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions that border Ukraine, although there were no reports of damage. Russia in turn has continued with its drone strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. Over 15 drones were spotted near the capital, 10 of which were downed by air defenses, the Kyiv City Military Administration said. No time frame has been given for the nuclear doctrine changes. (Source: newsweek)

North America

United States
Sptember 26, 2024 1:54 PM CET  U.S. President Biden announced $7.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine before meeting with President Zelenskyy at the White House. According to Biden's statement, the U.S. will allocate $5.5 billion through his presidential drawdown authority to fund equipment for Ukraine and another $2.4 billion in security assistance to provide the country with additional air defense, uncrewed aerial systems and air-to-ground munitions, among other equipment. Biden will also provide Ukraine with Joint Standoff Weapon long-range munitions to improve long-range strike capabilities. The U.S. will also refurbish and provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defense battery and additional Patriot missiles. They will expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots. Beyond security assistance, Washington also announced an international effort to “disrupt a global cryptocurrency network” that it said was used to counter Russian sanctions evasion and money laundering. The U.S. president announced that he will convene a summit-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany next month. (Source: politico)
by Körömi

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Europe

Czechia
(Wednesday), 25.09.2024  In an interview with The New York Times on Monday, Czech Republic President Pavel spoke about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for realism in Kyiv's war objectives. "Ukraine will have to be realistic about its prospects of recovering territory occupied by Russia," Pavel said, pointing to the growing fatigue felt across various sectors due to the 31-month-long conflict. In his assessment of the war's most likely outcome, the Czech leader said: "A part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily.' He cautioned that this 'temporary' situation could last for years, citing historical examples such as the former Soviet Union occupation of the Baltic states. Pavel expressed skepticism about either side achieving their maximalist goals. "To talk about a defeat of Ukraine or defeat of Russia, it will simply not happen," he said, adding: "So the end will be somewhere in between." (Source: anadoluagency)

European Council
September 25, 2024 10:00 AM  The Council has adopted, by common accord with the President-elect of the Commission, the list of persons whom it proposes for appointment as members of the Commission until 31 October 2029. (Source: eureporter)
The list: https://tinyurl.com/2s7rsa5c

Russia
(Wednesday ), Sep 25, 2024 3:59 PM EDT  Speaking at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council that considered changes in Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, President Putin announced today, that a revised version of the document states that an attack against his country by a nonnuclear power with the 'participation or support of a nuclear power' will be seen as their 'joint attack on the Russian Federation.' The change in the doctrine follows Putin’s warning to the U.S. and other NATO allies that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons to hit Russian territory would mean that Russia and NATO are at war. The threat, outlined in the nuclear doctrine’s revision was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Putin emphasized that Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack posing a 'critical threat to our sovereignty,' a vague formulation that leaves broad room for interpretation. The current doctrine says Moscow could use its nuclear arsenal “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.” Putin emphasized that the revised doctrine spells out conditions for using nuclear weapons in greater detail, noting they could be used in case of a massive air attack. “We will consider such a possibility when we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack assets and them crossing our state border,” Putin added, citing 'strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other flying vehicles.' Putin also said the revised doctrine envisages that Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to an aggression against its ally Belarus, adding that he has agreed on the issue with Belarusian President Lukashenko. Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian territory with missiles and drones in response to Moscow’s attacks. President Zelenskyy has said he will seek permission from his allies in the U.S. and Europe to use the longer-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, another red line for some of Ukraine’s supporters. The Biden administration has said it hasn’t given Kyiv permission for strikes with U.S. weapons deep inside Russia. “Regardless of whether you think this is a bluff or not, it’s never good when a major nuclear power loosens the conditions for nuclear use in its declaratory policy,” said Charap, senior political scientist at RAND. Russia is making slow but steady gains in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is seeking to discourage stronger Western support for Kyiv. (Source: pbs * / Associated Press)
* The Public Broadcasting Service, an American public broadcaster and television network based in Arlington, Virginia.

September 25, 2024 05:03 GMT  From the beginning of the full-scale invasion, analysts have noted that nonethnic Russians have been disproportionately represented among the country's military casualties. 'More soldiers from the central Russian regions of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan have died than any other region in the country', according to a confirmed tally of war deaths compiled by RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service. Bashkortostan, a mid-Volga republic with a population a little over 4 million, has 2,981 confirmed deaths, according to RFE/RL's accounting, which used announcements on social media, obituaries, and other open sources to gather the data. In Tatarstan, which has a similar population, RFE/RL registered 2,691 deaths from the region. Those figures are reflected in the BBC Russian/Mediazona tally, which used a similar methodology: 2,705 confirmed deaths in Bashkortostan, and 2,259 in Tatarstan. In addition to mobilized soldiers sent to fight in Ukraine, other populations include prison inmates and private military company mercenaries, as well as "kontraktniki"- men who voluntarily sign contracts to fight, induced by extraordinarily high wages and veterans benefits, including for widows and survivors. Among kontraktniki, Bashkortostan leads Russia in the number of confirmed deaths: 965, according to the RFE/RL tally. Tatarstan ranked second, with 557 volunteer deaths. By comparison, only 135 volunteers from Moscow - with an official population of more than 13 million - have been confirmed as killed. The confirmed figures are assumed to be a major undercount given the difficulty in identifying deaths amid official secrecy. On September 20, the BBC Russian/Mediazona project - which tracks war deaths by monitoring funeral notices and other open-source data - reported it had confirmed more than 70,000 killed soldiers nationwide. Overall, BBC Russian/Mediazona estimated the total number of casualties nationwide ranging from 107,000 to 155,000. In the early phases of the war, the average Russian war death was a contract soldier in his early 20s, the project noted. Now, however, typical deaths are volunteers in their 40s, 50s, and even 60s, 'most often without military experience or specialized training.' (Source: rferl *)
* Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, an American government-funded international media organization.
Note: ’RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service is the only major international news provider reporting in the Tatar and Bashkir languages to audiences in the Russian Federation’s multiethnic, Muslim-majority Volga-Ural region’.

United Kingdom
25 September 2024 - 00:32  The UK government has announced plans to deploy 700 troops to Cyprus in preparation for a potential evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon, amid escalating violence between Israel and Hezbollah. British nationals are urged by Foreign Office to leave Lebanon now. British troops in Cyprus will be backed by Border Force and Foreign Office officials, while the Royal Air Force has transport aircraft and helicopters on standby. Additionally, two Royal Navy ships, RFA Mounts Bay and HMS Duncan, remain stationed in the eastern Mediterranean for support. During a similar conflict in 2006, British nationals were evacuated from Lebanon by sea. (Source: knews.kathimerini * / ITV News)
* the English edition of Kathimerini Cyprus

Africa

Sahel
(25 September 2024) 7:21  The Sahel has the potential to become a base for global jihad, like Afghanistan or Libya in the past. In Bamako, Mali, a group of terrorists attempted to infiltrate the Feladie gendarmerie school on the outskirts of the capital early on 17 September morning. The jihadis struck just before dawn prayers. They killed dozens of students at the elite police training academy, stormed Bamako’s airport and set the presidential jet on fire. It showed that jihadist groups with links to al Qaeda or islamic state, whose largely rural insurgency has killed thousands of civilians and displaced millions in Sahel countries Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, can also strike at the heart of power. Conflict was a major factor behind the increase in migration from the West African coast, with rising numbers of women and families seen along the route. The number of violent events involving jihadi groups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger has almost doubled since 2021. Since the start of this year, there have been 224 attacks a month on average, up from 128 in 2021. In Burkina Faso, perhaps the worst affected of all, jihadists affiliated with al Qaeda slaughtered hundreds of civilians in a day on 24 August in the town of Barsalogho, two hours from the capital Ouagadougou. Burkina Faso topped the Global Terrorism Index for the first time this year, with fatalities rising 68% to 1,907 – a quarter of all terrorism-linked deaths worldwide. About half of Burkina Faso is now beyond government control. The two, big veteran terrorist groups are gaining ground. JNIM, the al Qaeda-aligned faction most active in the Sahel, had 5,000-6,000 fighters while 2,000-3,000 militants were linked to islamic state. Their declared goal is to establish Islamic rule. Jihadists use a mixture of coercion and the offer of basic services, including local courts, to install their systems of governance over rural communities that have long complained of neglect by weak, corrupt, central governments. The jihadi groups operate in different areas, at times fighting each other, though they have also struck localised, non-aggression pacts. The groups receive some financial support, training and guidance from their respective global leaderships, but also collect taxes in areas they control and seize weapons after battles with government forces. Conflict in the Sahel is contributing to a sharp rise in migration from the region towards Europe. The UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) data shows the number of migrants arriving in Europe from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal rose 62% to 17,300 in the first six months of 2024 from 10,700 a year earlier. The swathes of territory under jihadist control also risk becoming training grounds and launchpads for more attacks on major cities such as Bamako, or neighbouring states and Western targets, in the region or beyond. Then who’re dealing with a jihadi state or multiple jihadi states in the Sahel? The military juntas that replaced Western-backed governments have since 2020 swapped French and US military assistance for Russians, mainly from Wagner’s mercenary outfit, but have continued to lose ground. The junta in Niger last year ordered the US to leave a sprawling desert drone base in Agadez. US troops and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) used drones to track jihadists and shared intelligence with allies such as the French, who launched air strikes against the militants, ’and West African armies’. The Americans were booted out after they angered Niger’s coup leaders by refusing to share intelligence and warning them against working with the Russians. Nobody else filled the gap of providing effective air surveillance or air support, so the jihadis are roaming freely in those three countries. European governments are divided on how to respond to West Africa becoming the world’s terrorism hotspot, with Southern European nations who receive most migrants favouring to keep communication with the juntas open. Others object 'because of human rights and democracy concerns'. (Source: euractiv)
by Gotev

Asia

Israel
September 25, 2024  The Israeli military said today it was calling up two reserve brigades for operational missions to the north, where its forces are involved in cross-border clashes with the Lebanese group Hezbollah. An Israeli infantry brigade typically has about 1,000 to 2,000 soldiers, while an armoured tank brigade has about 100 tanks. (Source: barrons / Agence France Presse)

NATO

September 25, 2024 1:24 PM GMT+2  NATO plans to coordinate the transport of a large number of wounded troops away from front lines potentially via hospital trains 'in case of a war with Russia'. The future scenario for medical evacuations will differ from allies' experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, as air evacuations may not be feasible. Western militaries would likely be faced with a much larger war zone, a higher number of injured troops and at least a temporary lack of air superiority close to the front lines, the German Lieutenant-General Sollfrank, the head of NATO's logistics command said. The German military has said ’it expects Russia to be able to attack a NATO country as soon as 2029’, while Russian President Putin casts the West as the aggressor for arming Ukraine. Sollfrank runs NATO's Joint Support and Enabling Command (JSEC), tasked with coordinating the swift movement of troops and tanks across Europe as well as logistical preparations such as the storage of munitions on NATO's eastern flank. Recently, JSEC - which is based in the southern German town of Ulm - staged an exercise in coordination of patient flows. Differing medical regulations between countries are another hurdle to overcome, Sollfrank said. A "military medical Schengen", akin to the political Schengen zone that allows free movement within most of the European Union, could be a solution. It could entail an area of free passage for sensitive medications such as narcotics or strong painkillers, which would be needed to treat wounded troops but whose cross-border transport is regulated. (Source: reuters)

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Europe

Hungary
24/09/2024 - 18:50 GMT+2  European Affairs Minister Bóka insists 'he' won't pay a €200m fine imposed by EU courts for restricting asylum rights, though Brussels has triggered a special procedure to deduct the sum from EU funds. But the government is willing to engage in a "constructive way" with Brussels to ensure compliance with the ECJ ruling, Bóka said after a ministerial meeting in Brussels, which he had chaired as EU Council Presidency. The minister said Budapest was looking into "legal possibilities on how certain expenses that we have incurred in the protection of the border could be offset" against the penalty. Hungarian officials say they have spent €2 billion since 2015 to curb migration, but Brussels has denied their claim that Budapest is now owed that sum back. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called the fine "outrageous and acceptable’ and ratcheted up his eurosceptic rhetoric, while his ministers have sparked a further row by threatening to bus migrants to Brussels. (Source: euronews *)
* Euronews, a European television news network, headquartered in Lyon, France.
by Liboreiro
Note: False quotation of Hungarian PM in the original text. Mr Orbán has called the fine 'outrageous and unacceptable'

Germany
Sep 24, 2024 At the NATO anniversary summit in July, for the first time since the 1980s, Germany agreed to the stationing of three types of U.S. missiles (under U.S. command) on its territory, starting in 2026: The Tomahawk Block 4 cruise missile, with a range of just over 1,000 miles; the Standard Missile-6 (SM-6), with a range of 230 miles, and intended chiefly for an air-defense role; and a Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHP) which is still under development, and will have a range of more than 1,800 miles. They are conventionally armed, but nuclear-capable, though to convert them to this role would require a new agreement. This agreement said nothing about whether Germany will have any control over the missiles on its soil. Two of these missiles will be able to strike deep into Russia, and both will be able to hit Moscow. The stationing of the Tomahawks and LRHPs is in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear (INF) Treaty of 1987, which bans the stationing of ground-based missiles with a range of between 500 and 5,000 kilometers (310-3 400 miles). The Trump administration withdrew from the INF in 2019, and Russia then suspended its own compliance. The Biden administration has made no attempt to negotiate a return to the treaty. Both the Trump and Obama administrations alleged that the Russian SRBM Iskander ballistic missile (nuclear-capable but not nuclear-armed), with a declared range of under 500 km (within the INF treaty limit) and stationed in Kaliningrad in fact had a longer range and thus violated the treaty. This allegation was never independently confirmed. After the Russian seizure of Crimea in 2014, the deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations made it impossible to resolve this question through negotiations. Rather strangely (in a democracy), the latest German government agreement to station the new missiles was made without any prior discussion in the German parliament, the Bundestag, or any prior national debate. Today, the Russian government has neither the intention nor the capability to launch the sort of premeditated conventional attack on NATO that the new missiles are supposed to counter. Russian nuclear “saber-rattling” is intended to deter NATO from intervening directly in Ukraine, and thereby starting a NATO-Russia war. There remains however an acute risk that an unplanned mutual escalation could lead to war. In this case, U.S. missiles firing into Russia from Germany could easily be the tripwire for nuclear catastrophe. This issue is contributing to regional tensions in Germany, and it can be expected that it will play a major role in next year’s national elections. According to the latest poll, 49 percent of German public are opposed to the missiles and 45 percent in favor. In eastern Germany the percentage opposed to the treaty rises to 74 percent, with only 23 percent in favor. The foreign and security establishment, and most of the political establishment, are firmly in favor. The Social Democratic Party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz is split on the issue and opposed the stationing of the Pershings.. The right-wing Alternative fuer Deutchland (AfD) and left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are strongly opposed. In the 1980s opposition (sometimes violent) over the stationing of U.S. Pershing II medium-range nuclear ballistic missile contributed greatly to the rise of the anti-nuclear German Green Party. 40 years later, it is now among the ’strongest’ advocates for the stationing of the Tomahawks. The Greens suffered crushing defeats in the latest eastern German elections. The only sensible purpose of allowing the deployment of Tomahawks and hypersonic missiles in Germany is to offer to give them up again, as part of a new nuclear arms reduction agreement with Russia. That after all was the only positive result of the deployment of Pershing II missiles in West Germany in the 1980s. The decision to deploy the Pershings in 1979 was accompanied by a declaration of a desire to negotiate an agreement. No such declaration has accompanied the latest decision. After former Soviet President Gorbachev came to power, Washington and Moscow in 1989 signed the INF Treaty, under which the Pershings were withdrawn and scrapped in return for Moscow doing the same with its intermediate nuclear missiles. A similar agreement today, in which the U.S. cancels the planned new missile deployment in Germany in return for Russia withdrawing its missiles based in Kaliningrad and Belarus would be of immense benefit to Germany, Europe and the world. Unfortunately, for the past generation, the entire trajectory of arms control agreements has been in the opposite direction, towards an uncontrolled arms race. The process of the disintegration of arms control agreements began in 2002, with the Bush administration’s withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Berlin did not state its objections forcefully in public, or make any public attempt to create a bloc of European states to defend the treaty. This marked one important step in the establishment of a belief in Moscow that Germany never would make any serious move to defend European security interests if it required a public confrontation with Washington. The U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty was followed by the deployment of U.S. ABM systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, with the blatantly mendacious claim - in which the German government once again acquiesced - that this was directed not against Russia, but rather a hypothetical threat from Iran. Moscow threatened to respond with the deployment of new intermediate missiles, and did so, while claiming to remain (just) within the terms of the INF. According to Russian sources, Moscow was willing to compromise on intermediate missiles as part of wider talks on NATO limitations demanded by Russia in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine, but Washington refused to consider seriously negotiating on this basis. The result is that Europe is now altogether without missile limitation agreements at a time when not merely is war raging in Ukraine, but Washington is considering acceding to Ukrainian and British pressure to allow British Storm Shadow cruise missiles (guided by U.S. targeting) to be fired into Russia. The deployment of U.S. missiles in Germany therefore involves the following propositions: Washington is actively considering helping to fire U.S.-manufactured Ukrainian missiles into Russia; U.S. intermediate missiles in Germany will be able to strike deep into Russia; Russian intermediate missiles can strike Germany but not the U.S.; Germany will have no control over the U.S. missiles on its soil. This combination makes many Germans extremely nervous. (Source: responsiblestatecraft *)
Responsible Statecraft, the online American magazine of the Quincy Institute
by Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was formerly a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and in the War Studies Department of King’s College London.

European Union
24 Sep 2024  With a budget of €12 million, the European Commission has announced a new EU-funded project, called Supporting at-risk researchers with fellowships in Europe (Safe), to provide support for researchers facing threats to their safety. The project will offer two-year fellowships to 60 researchers with or without refugee status, allowing them to continue their academic work within the EU. The project aims to develop and test processes for assessing the risks researchers face and establish mechanisms to match them with EU-based host institutions. It will also offer training and career development opportunities to the researchers through their hosts. Applications, which must be submitted by the hosts rather than the researchers, will open on 18 November and close on 20 January next year. A matchmaking system will be available from October to help at-risk scholars find hosts, with placements expected to begin in spring next year. The Safe project is being implemented by a coalition of academic organisations, led by the German Academic Exchange Service, in partnership with institutions including Campus France and the Mediterranean Universities Union. (Source: researchprofessionalnews *)
* The Research Professional News is an editorially independent part of Clarivate - Headquartered Philadelphia, United States and London, United Kingdom - American-British analytics company that operates a collection of subscription-based services. 

Africa

Mali
(24 September 2024 13:08)  Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have announced a new partnership with Russia to acquire telecoms and remote-sensing satellites. The three West African countries, run by military juntas, have been struggling to defeat Islamist insurgencies for years and have turned to Russia for military support. Ministers from the three countries met officials from Russia’s aerospace agency Roscosmos in Mali’s capital, Bamako, on Monday, to discuss implementation plans. The technology will boost border surveillance and national security in all three countries, says Mali’s Finance Minister, Sanou. He also said it would help them to monitor and respond to floods, droughts, fires and other emergencies. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso last year formed the Alliance of Sahel States. Russia has been seeking to expand its footprint in Africa, especially in the Sahel, since relations between these countries and their Western allies broke down. (Source: bbc)

Asia

Lebanon
24 September 2024 (15:22)  Israeli strikes force tens of thousands to flee their homes yesterday and overnight in southern Lebanon, UN agencies have said. They were ramping up their aid in Lebanon to address a situation that was already dire before the escalation. Some 100,000 people living near the border with Israel had already been displaced since October last year.Some 500 people have crossed from Lebanon to war-torn Syria. Israeli air strikes killed at least 558 people, including 50 children and 94 women, since early yesterday, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry. At least four healthcare workers were killed and 16 paramedics injured, World Health Organization said. The hospitals have been crazy challenged in managing the number of injuries since last week," WHO's representative in Lebanon, Abubakar, told. More than 90 percent of the wounds suffered last week when pagers used by Hezbollah exploded across Lebanon ’are on the face and limbs, especially hands’  (Source: trtworld)

Japan
(24 September 2024 14:45)  A Russian Il-38 military patrol plane entered Japanese airspace for up to a minute over three instances near the northernmost main island of Hokkaido, above Rebun Island, the defence ministry said. Russia and Japan have been locked in a territorial dispute over islands near Hokkaido that were seized by the Soviet Union during the final days of World War II. An undisclosed number of F-15 and F-35 fighter jets fired warning flares at the Russian aircraft after it apparently ignored their warnings, defence minister Kihara said, calling the use of flares a legitimate response to the alleged airspace violation. Earlier in September, another Russian military aircraft flew around southern Japanese airspace. It was after a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance aircraft briefly violated Japan’s southern airspace in late August. Japanese defence officials have voiced concerns over Russia and China stepping up military cooperation in the region, with Chinese warplanes engaging in assertive activity around Japanese waters. These concerns have prompted Tokyo to significantly reinforce the defences of southwestern Japan, including remote islands that are considered key to Japan’s defence strategy in the region. (Source: independent)

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Europe

France
Sep 23, 2024, 10:00 AM  Europe will have to review its relations with Russia sometime in the future, French President Macron said. Addressing an international conference on peace in Paris, he has called for "thinking about peace in Europe of tomorrow," bearing in mind that Europe "is not confined to the European Union and NATO." "We are trying to develop the European political community, but we need to think about a new organization of Europe and then review our ties with Russia, and think about peace in this [European] continent," Macron said. His speech was aired on the Elysee Palace’s X page. Macron called on European and world nations to focus on how 'to build a new world order.' The French president called for a bigger presence of "densely populated countries, which did not exist when the current world order was only forming" in international organizations. He said that he plans to raise this topic in his speech at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly. The European Political Community, an international forum, was set up in 2022 at Macron’s initiative to hold discussions on Europe’s future. (Source: mehrnews *)
* Mehr News Agency, a semi-official news agency of the government of Iran. It is headquartered in Tehran

Asia

Israel
(Monday ), September 23, 2024, 10:37 PM  The Israeli military expanded its Lebanon campaign with hundreds of airstrikes today. Dozens of Israeli warplanes struck more than 1,300 targets in southern Lebanon today morning. At least 492 people were killed and more than 1,600 wounded, the Lebanon Ministry of Public Health said. Of those killed, 35 were children and 58 were women. Hezbollah returned fire across the border. There were about 250 launches from Lebanon into Israel today, according to Israeli Emergency Officials. Some munitions were intercepted and some fell in open areas, the force wrote. Israel also launched a targeted strike on a residential building in Bir al-Abd, a southern suburb of Beirut. Hezbollah officials said senior commander Karaki - who Israeli sources confirmed was the target of the Beirut strike - survived the attack. Israeli communities in the north of the country are braced for further escalation. The IDF issued new security guidance on yesterday, closing schools and beaches in the region, while the Rambam Hospital in Haifa transferred patients to an underground facility. Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said that Israel will act with full force to change the current situation in southern Lebanon. Following the intense strikes in the south of the country today morning, Hagari said the IDF would soon start hitting targets in the eastern Bekaa Valley - another Hezbollah stronghold. Israeli leaders are also demanding that Hezbollah withdraw beyond the Litani River - some 18 miles north of the Israeli border - as stipulated in a 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution that sought to end the last major cross-border war. I want to clarify Israel's policy - we do not wait for a threat, we anticipate it, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed in a statement. (Source: abcnews *)
* ABC News, the news division of the American television network ABC. Headquarters New York City

21:36 BST, (Monday), 23 September 2024  'War on five fronts.' Prior to the October 7 attacks, Hamas is believed to have had some 20,000-30,000 fighters making up the ranks of its militarised wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam brigades. The militia was stocked with all manner of small arms and heavy weapons obtained from across the Middle East - particularly Iran, Syria and Libya - and is thought to have had some 30,000 short and medium-range rockets at its disposal. Now, after almost one year of intense fighting and widespread destruction in Gaza at the hands of the IDF, Hamas' military capabilities will have been considerably weakened. In the short term, Hamas is unlikely to be able to mount any kind of damaging offensive against Israeli positions - somewhere between 9,000-12,000 Hamas fighters remain active in Gaza, with their tactics having shifted to selective attacks and guerrilla-style warfare. Israel's deployment of troops in the Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Egypt has also served to crack down on smuggling efforts to resupply Hamas fighters via their intricate tunnel network. Hamas’ capacity to continue waging guerrilla-style attacks, including bombings, suicide attacks on Israeli troops in Gaza remains. Its extensive tunnel network suggests Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups could feasibly attempt another operation on Israel soil, and its remaining stockpile of missiles and rockets could deal damage to Israeli targets if launched as part of a coordinated aerial strike with Hezbollah and Iranian assets. Jewish state faces all-out conflict against its Middle Eastern enemies after killing 274 people in Lebanon today alone in latest Hezbollah strikes. The 'new phase' of war against Hezbollah had begun last week. Israel's hawkish defence minister Gallant and IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Hagari say they 'will do whatever is needed' to cripple Hezbollah's military capabilities and allow displaced residents from Israel's northern territories to return home safely. Lebanon accuses it of carrying out an 'extermination.' Hezbollah's leader Nasrallah has vowed to continue fighting until a ceasefire in Gaza is agreed upon, with deputy leader Qassem declaring the group is now entering 'an open-ended battle of reckoning' with Israel. Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) is estimating that the Hezbollah group's arsenal counts 150,000 to 200,000 rockets, including 'hundreds' of precision missiles and thousands of drones. Hezbollah also boasts a range of anti-tank and anti-air systems, dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles, and claims to have up to 100,000 active fighters - though INSS estimates the number is more likely 25,000 to 50,000. It has an extensive tunnel network along the Lebanese-Israeli border which serves as a strategic asset for clandestine movement, storage, and guerrilla warfare. Israel's military capability is still superior. It has long been supported by the US with $3.3 billion in congressionally mandated annual funding, plus another $500 million toward missile defence technology that protects its skies from rockets and drones. The Jewish state also spends more than 5 per cent of its GDP on the IDF. Jerusalem would assuredly emerge victorious thanks to its technological capabilities and raw numeric advantage in terms of firepower and manpower. Hezbollah would be able to inflict massive damage. Its missile and drone arsenal is large enough to quickly overwhelm Israel's air defences if deployed in earnest, and the thousands upon thousands of Hezbollah fighters that could stream into northern Israel would be continuously supported by air and ground supply routes from Iran via Iraq and Syria. Such a war would also spell disaster for civilians in both Israel and Lebanon - particularly citizens of the latter, many of whom have long been mired in poverty. Lebanon has struggled with years of political and economic crises that left it indebted, without a stable electricity supply, a proper banking system and with rampant poverty. UN agencies estimate an 'uncontrolled conflict' between Israel and Hezbollah would displace up to one million people - almost a fifth of Lebanon's population - and the country is already reliant on meagre stockpiles of food and fuel. Hennis-Plasschaert, the UN's special coordinator for Lebanon, warned today: 'With the region on the brink of an imminent catastrophe, it cannot be overstated enough: there is NO military solution that will make either side safer.' Hezbollah is often referred to as the 'jewel in the crown' of Iran's Axis of Resistance that encompasses Hamas; the Lebanese group; the Houthi movement in Yemen; various Shi'ite armed groups in Iraq; and Syria. The heavily armed Houthi rebel group - a Shi'ite militia - stormed to prominence in Yemen in 2014 and has cemented 10 years of strict rule over roughly two-thirds of the country's population. Its leaders vowed to come to Hamas' defence following Israel's retaliation to the October 7 attacks and began targeting a slew of Israel and Western-affiliated cargo ships and oil tankers in the Red Sea with drones, missiles and in some cases armed boarding parties. They have also fired a small number of missiles and drones at Israel directly, with one drone in July killing a man and wounding four others in Tel Aviv. Israel should expect more strikes in the future 'as we approach the first anniversary of the October 7 operation,' Houthi military spokesman Sarea said earlier this month. A number of other Iran-backed militia groups across Iraq and Syria have limited capabilities to launch strikes against Israeli targets, with Hezbollah maintaining a strong footprint in Syria from which it could launch attacks on Israel's northeast. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) - an umbrella group of various Iran-backed Shi'ite militia forces - announced yesterday it had launched drones at IDF targets in the Israeli-occupied Jordan Valley, and vowed to escalate its attacks as the anniversary of October 7 approaches. Former Israeli intelligence official and leading regional analyst Melamed told that Israel's attacks on Hezbollah in the past week have pushed the conflict into a new phase and removed any room for manoeuvre. 'We are at a pivotal moment in both the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, but also the war between Israel and Iran, where the regime must make a choice: risk it all or step back from the brink. 'Within the realm of diplomatic solutions, a positive result for Israel could be Iran pressuring Hamas leaders to accept the ceasefire deal on the table, return the hostages, and end the war in Gaza. 'Another option could be for Hezbollah to bifurcate itself from the conflict in Gaza and enter into a separate diplomatic arrangement with Israel only covering the skirmish in the north. 'But it would be tough for Hezbollah to do so after 11 months of crossfire with Israel and Nasrallah's statements that Hezbollah would only cease after an agreement is in place with Hamas.' In a full-scale conflict, Jerusalem may be forced to contend with attacks from its chief adversary - Iran. A full-scale war with Iran and its proxies could ultimately result in the destruction of the state of Israel. 'Iran and its proxies have 250,000 missiles, rockets, and drones encircling Israel, which means about 4,000 munitions hitting the Israeli home front on a daily basis. 'Population centres, Haifa Bay, water and electricity facilities, gas fields [in the Mediterranean Sea], IDF bases, and strategic civilian infrastructure... A regional war can ruin the State of Israel,' Brik, a former Major General in the IDF, told the Jerusalem Post. The Islamic Republic has already launched one serious strike on Israel since October 7, sending a salvo of some 200 missiles and drones soaring towards Israeli targets in April following an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. Analysts at the time largely agreed the Iranian attack was merely symbolic - designed to display Tehran's willingness for military engagement. With Hezbollah now being subjected to a brutal assault by the IDF, Tehran may be more inclined to come to its defence after former Hamas chief Haniyeh was assassinated on July 31, as he lay in his bed hours after attending the inauguration of Iranian president Pezeshkian in Tehran. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed to take revenge. The Islamic Republic is enjoying an advantage in terms of manpower and the variety of their artillery systems. Any meaningful direct conflict between the two is likely to take the form of aerial assaults by air forces, missiles and drones, given their considerable geographic separation. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) certainly has the upper hand over its adversary, flying US-manufactured combat aircraft including the F-35 stealth fighter-bomber, and F-15 and F-16 fighter jets specifically designed according to IAF requirements. It is also believed to have more combat aircraft at its disposal, outstripping the Islamic Republic of Iran's Air Force (IRIAF) which is made up of older generation F-14 Tomcat fighters, Iranian-manufactured jets based on the aged US F-4 and F-5 series planes, and an assortment of Russian and Chinese manufactured combat aircraft. The real Iranian threat is its array of missiles and highly capable drones which could be used to deal punishing strikes on Israel. The Islamic Republic has thousands upon thousands of long-range and precision-guided missiles alongside hundreds of thousands of mid-range cruise missiles. The worst-case scenario feared by Israeli defence experts is a coordinated attack in which Iran, Hezbollah and other allies launch wave after wave of missile and drone strikes that overwhelm Israel's air defences and devastate towns and cities. Bowen, Professor of International Security at King's College London's Department of War Studies, told that Iran would most probably face an uncontrollable response from Israel backed by the might of the US military, should it decide to launch a major aerial assault. 'It has been widely reported of course that Tehran wants to avoid such a direct conflict with Israel and the US. This is likely because the Iranian leadership knows that it might be very difficult for it to control the national and regional repercussions of such a development,' he concluded. Retired US Army Colonel Sweet and security expert Toth added that ’Israel could seek to deploy its nuclear weapons’ should it be faced with a full-scale direct strike from Iran. 'Any such hit could see Israel deploying one or all of its long-range assets. F-35 stealth fighter-bombers, precision deep-strike ICBMs and/or the Israeli's nuclear equipped submarines. 'The US is highly likely to respond with a direct hit on Iran potentially using the full array of military assets – cruise missiles, B-52 bombers, subs, and carrier and/or land-based fighter-bombers. In this scenario, this attack would likely be closely coordinated with Israel, if not performed jointly.' US Defense Secretary Austin last month ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups - the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Theodore Roosevelt - to deploy to the Middle East. An Air Force F-22 Raptor squadron also arrived in the region along with cruise missile submarine USS Georgia. (Source: dailymail *)
* The Daily Mail British daily newspaper's MailOnline news website. Headquarters London.

North America

United States
12:44 AM CEST, (Monday), September 24, 2024  In light of increased tension in the Middle East, the U.S. is sending 'a small number of additional troops' to the Middle East in response to a sharp spike in violence between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon that has raised the risk of a greater regional war. The U.S. now has about 40,000 troops in the region. Today, the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, two Navy destroyers and a cruiser set sail from Norfolk, Virginia, headed to the Sixth Fleet area in Europe on a regularly scheduled deployment. The ships’ departure opens up the possibility that the U.S. could keep both the Truman and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which is in the Arabian Gulf, in the region in case more violence breaks out. A decision is expected soon, possibly this week, on whether the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier will stay in the Middle East or continue to the Asia-Pacific. The new deployments come after significant strikes by Israeli forces against targets inside Lebanon that have killed hundreds. Israel is preparing to conduct further operations. Having two carrier strike groups in the Middle East at the same time has been relatively rare in recent years. But as violence has spiked between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah, both Iranian-backed militant groups, the Biden administration has ordered the Navy to have the carriers and their warships overlap for several weeks on a couple occasions. It will take the Truman aircraft carrier about two weeks to cross the Atlantic Ocean and get into the Mediterranean Sea. Navy warships are scattered across the region, from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf of Oman, and both Air Force and Navy fighter jets are strategically based at several locations to be better prepared to respond to any attacks. The State Department is warning Americans to leave Lebanon as the risk of a regional war increases. The American presence in the Middle East is designed both to help defend Israel and protect U.S. and allied personnel and assets. There is already a Marine amphibious ready group in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard, which is expected to be able to assist in an evacuation if needed. (Source: apnews *)
* Associated Press, an American news agency headquartered in New York City

(Monday, 23 September 2024 11:24 AM)  The Zelensky’s visit to the US - where he is also due to attend the UN General Assembly - coincides with efforts from the White House to prepare a new $375m military aid package for Ukraine. In a statement ahead of the visit, he previewed three elements to his ’victory’ plan. Zelensky listed further weapons donations for the military, diplomatic efforts to force Russia into peace, and to hold Moscow accountable for the full-scale invasion in 2022. When asked by reporters on Sunday whether he had made a decision on allowing Ukraine to use US-made long-range weapons, President Biden answered "no". Trump has previously flagged his own plan to end the war "within 24 hours" if he is elected in November, but has provided no details other than to label US support for Ukraine as a waste of money. According to Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who met Trump in March, the former president said he would "not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war. That is why the war will end". The US has been the largest foreign donor to Ukraine, and to date has provided $56bn for Ukraine's defence. (Source: bbc *)
* The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), headquartered in London, England

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Europe

European Union
September 2024. The future of European competitiveness: Part A | A competitiveness strategy for Europe / Mario Draghi - 66 p.
(Source: commission.europa): https://tinyurl.com/4jp6ndvc

22nd September 2024  Even arch-Eurocrats are admitting that Brussels is leading Europe to ruin. The largely unspoken trade-off involved in membership of the European Union is that democracy and national sovereignty are sacrificed in return for economic prosperity. Member states give up much of their control over critical policy areas to an unelected, technocratic elite who are entrusted with delivering higher living standards and productivity. But Brussels is not keeping its part of the bargain – and hasn’t for some time. Worse, the EU economy is about to endure decades of ‘slow agony’. This is the grim prognosis of one of Europe’s most senior technocrats, Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank and ex-prime minister of Italy. Last week, Draghi unveiled a 400-page doorstopper report, commissioned by the EU, on the ‘future of European competitiveness’. Without radical economic reform, he warns, EU member states will suffer from stagnant living standards, technological backwardness and geopolitical impotence. At the turn of the century, the EU and US were on a relatively equal footing. But, on a per-capita basis, real disposable income in the EU has grown at only half the rate of the US since 2000. The US now massively outperforms the EU in advanced technology. Only four in the world’s top-50 tech firms are European. Almost a million manufacturing jobs were lost in the EU in the last four years alone. The growing gap between the EU and US is the calamity. Draghi’s bleak assessment actually underestimates the scale of the EU’s economic malaise across the 27-member bloc. The economies of Italy, Spain and Greece are actually smaller than they were in the late 2000s. Germany is rapidly deindustrialising. In France the debt is spiralling. The cost of all this foregone growth is a diminished quality of life, stretched public services and decaying infrastructure. According to Draghi, nothing less than a fundamental rethink in how Brussels approaches investment, trade policy and business regulation will dig Europe out of its hole. His demand is for an EU-funded investment plan worth €800 billion per year – more than double the size of the postwar Marshall plan. Slow agony is what Europe will get. The core proposal of an EU-wide investment fund was, within a matter of hours, effectively vetoed by German finance minister Lindner. The Netherlands, have also rejected the plan. France’s new technocratic government is planning a harsh round of austerity to meet demands laid down by Brussels. The great irony here is that if a national government were to propose such a large investment plan, it would be instantly smacked down by the EU for breaking rules on fiscal deficits and state aid. Member states are blocked from making large public investments by Brussels, while Brussels is blocked from pursuing an EU-wide strategy by the member states. Draghi notes that 60 per cent of companies in the EU see labyrinthine regulation from Brussels as a barrier to investment and innovation. While the US federal government passed 3,500 pieces of legislation and 2,000 resolutions between 2019 and 2024, the EU added 13,000 regulations in the same period. Brussels’ great ambition is to become a ‘regulatory superpower’ – that is, to be the setter of rules for vast swathes of the world. EU apparatchiks may boast of their ‘world-leading’ regulations on tech, but where are the large homegrown, innovative tech firms Europe needs if it wants to drive economic growth? Regulating for regulation’s sake is what Brussels does. Draghi’s report notes alongside low investment, another leading cause of Europe’s industrial stagnation: high energy prices. On average, EU firms pay 158 per cent more for electricity and 345 per cent more for natural gas than their US counterparts. But Draghi chooses to ignore the key reason for this. The US has embraced fossil fuels. The EU generates energy expensively – and has to import much of it from outside the continent – because has shunned domestic fossil-fuel production and embraced unreliable renewable energy to meet Net Zero targets. Yet Draghi’s proposed ‘solution’ is to combine the push for ‘competitiveness’ with ‘decarbonisation’. Of the €800 billion being demanded in his proposed investment plan, €450 billion would be spent on Net Zero projects. This would mean doubling down on a failed strategy, potentially accelerating Europe’s decline. Fundamentally, Europe’s economic problems are not going to be solved by the EU, even with proposals as far-reaching as Draghi’s. The EU itself is the problem here. Member states are constrained from pursuing economic policies according to their national interests, hampered from investing in their domestic priorities, and forced to adopt uniform rules as dictated by functionaries in Brussels. And when the EU fails to deliver the growth and prosperity it has promised, voters are largely powerless to hold its leaders accountable or to force a change in direction. (Source: spiked *)
* a British Internet magazine
by Myers, Deputy Editor

Albania
22.09.2024  Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama confirmed plans yesterday to establish a ’Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order’ in the nation’s capital of Tirana to "promote a tolerant version of Islam that Albania is proud of." The proposed state, expected to be a quarter the size of Vatican City, would lack traditional sovereign features such as an army, border guards or courts. Rama admitted that a few close aides were aware of the plan, with NATO allies, including the US, not yet informed. Albania's latest census data showed that Bektashis comprised 115,000 of the country's 2.4 million people. (Source: aa *)
* Anadolu Agency (Turkey)

Russia
(Sunday), 01:42 BST, 22 September 2024  Yesterday morning a secret ammunition silo facility at Toropets in Tver region was hit by Ukrainian kamikaze drone, it was claimed yesterday. A huge explosion was triggered. The 'Satan-2' missile was hit, destroyed. It allegedly happened just ten miles from an 'indestructible' 30,000 ton munitions storage site that had been obliterated on Wednesday. It was also claimed that another site, which is reported to house North Korean missiles supplied by Kim, was hit in the Russian town of Tikhoretsk in the Krasnodar region. Kondratyev, governor of Krasnodar region, wrote on his official Telegram channel that Tikhoretsk was 'subjected to a terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime.'Two drones were suppressed by air defence and electronic warfare forces. 'Due to the fall of debris from one of them, a fire broke out, which spread to explosive objects. Detonation began. 'Currently, for safety reasons, residents of the village located near the site of the fire are being temporarily evacuated to nearby settlements.' The detonation site is believed to be a base of military unit 57229-41. The Tikhoretsk missile and ammunition complex is at the end of a 6,000-mile transit route across Siberia from North Korea for mountains of munitions sent by Kim. The North Korean firepower was stashed here before being sent to the frontline. Among supplies from Pyongyang are deadly KN-23 missiles and 122mm and 152mm artillery shells. There were Russian fears of casualties at both exploded arms depots. The blowing up today of two more arsenals - 1,000 miles apart - will have acute ramifications. (Source: dailymail)

Asia

Israel
Sun, 22 Sep, 2024 - 08:10  On Friday, an Israeli air strike took down an eight-storey building in a densely populated area in Beirut’s southern suburbs as Hezbollah members were meeting in the basement, according to Israel. Among those killed was Akil, a top Hezbollah official who commanded the group’s special forces unit, known as the Radwan Force. Akil had been on the US most wanted list for years, with a seven million dollar reward, over his alleged role in the 1983 bombing of the US embassy in Beirut and the taking of American and German hostages in Lebanon during the civil war in the 1980s. Rockets fired from Lebanon early today were intercepted further south than most of the rocket fire to date. Lebanon’s Hezbollah has launched more than 100 rockets across a wider and deeper area of northern Israel, with some landing near the city of Haifa, sending thousands of people scrambling into shelters. In Kiryat Bialik, near Haifa buildings were damaged and cars set on fire. Israel cancelled school across the north, deepening the sense of crisis. The barrage came after an Israeli air strike in Beirut on Friday killed at least 37 people, including one of Hezbollah’s top leaders as well as women and children. The Israeli military said it carried out a wave of strikes across southern Lebanon over the past 24 hours, hitting some 400 militant sites, including rocket launchers. In a separate development, Israeli forces raided the West Bank bureau of Al-Jazeera, which it had banned earlier this year, accusing it of serving as a mouthpiece for militant groups, allegations denied by the pan-Arab broadcaster. (Source: irishexaminer)

Lebanon
(Sunday, 22 9 2024 10:16 AM)  The death toll from an Israeli air strike that targeted Hezbollah military commanders in Beirut's southern suburbs this week has risen to 45, Lebanon's health ministry said today. (Source: gulftoday *)
* Gulf Today, an English-language daily newspaper. Headquarters Sharjah, the United Arab Emirates.

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Germany
(Saturday, 21 September 2024)  Migrants feel less welcome as Germany's far-right rises. Anti-migrant ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany, or AfD, could win the most votes in the eastern German state of Brandenburg's election for a new regional parliament tomorrow. In Brandenburg polls show the AfD leading with 28%. To undermine support for the AfD, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left wing-led government on Monday introduced checks for migrants on all of Germany’s borders. He also wants to increase deportations of people whose application for asylum is unsuccessful. Opposition conservatives want the borders closed to asylum seekers altogether. Almost a decade ago the then-chancellor Angela Merkel refused to shut the borders to hundreds of thousands of people fleeing war and persecution in Syria and Afghanistan. In 2015 and 2016 around 1.5 million refugees and migrants were welcomed to Germany, mostly from the Middle East. Many Germans were suddenly proud of the country’s new-found identity as a safe haven for refugees. A new German word was invented, “Willkommenskultur” A record 200,000 people became German citizens in 2023. The New Germans largest group came from Syria. They are on average younger than the native-born population - 26 years old compared to the German average of 47 - and ’statistically’ more likely to be in work: 84% of the Syrian men who arrived in 2015 are in employment, compared to 81% of German-born men. Overall ’3.48 million refugees’ are now living in the country A third are from Ukraine. But, the 2015 ’welcome culture’ is hard to find today. New arrivals down this year by 22% compared to the same period in 2023. There is a nervousness in Germany that money and resources are tight. New Germans are thinking about leaving altogether. The paradox is that the government is desperate to attract workers to Germany. But the increasingly hostile rhetoric over migration may not only put people off coming, but also push away those go-getting New Germans. A study published last week by DeZIM, an institute that researches migration, found that almost a quarter of people with a migration background, many of them German citizens, are considering emigrating because of the rise of the far-right. Almost 10 percent say they have concrete plans to leave Germany. (Source: bbc)

Sep 21, 2024  The Leopard 2A6 tank sent to Ukraine stands as one of the most sophisticated main battle tanks globally. Armed with a 120mm Rheinmetall L55 smoothbore gun, it delivers exceptional firepower and accuracy. This formidable tank can launch a variety of ammunition, including armor-piercing, high-explosive, and even guided projectiles. Its state-of-the-art fire control system allows for accurate targeting even while on the move, and its thermal optic capabilities ensure precision in any visibility conditions. Underneath its armored exterior, the Leopard 2A6 boasts a powerful MTU MB 873 diesel engine with around 1,500 horsepower. This power grants it impressive maneuverability and speed. On roads, it can reach up to 72 km/h, and even off-road, it can move at speeds of up to 50 km/h. Weighing approximately 62.5 tons, it provides both stability and protection, thanks to its advanced design and multi-layered armor, composed of composite materials and equipped with active protection systems. When it comes to defense, the Leopard 2A6 is top-tier. Its combined armor is specifically engineered to deflect and absorb hits from anti-tank shells. Adding to its prowess, the tank is fitted with modern communication and control technologies, enabling seamless integration into contemporary combat networks. This capability is crucial for the effective coordination of combat units on today’s dynamic battlefield. The Leopard 2A6 made its combat debut during the mass offensives against Russian positions in early June 2023. It was among the first Western-supplied vehicles to be disabled and destroyed by Russian forces. Several Leopard 2 tanks have been captured by Russian force and studied extensively. A Leopard 2A4 was confirmed captured in December 2022, followed by a Leopard 2A6 in April 2023. In early September, footage surfaced showing the capture of another Leopard 2A6 and an M1 Abrams near the strategically crucial town of Avdiivka in the disputed Donbas region. The Russian military has been developing intricate strategies to combat Leopard 2A6 armored tanks, creatively leveraging reconnaissance and anti-tank drones. These drones deliver real-time updates on the location and movement of enemy tanks, effectively acting as sentinels on the battlefield. They relay critical data to commanders, who can then pinpoint weak spots in the Leopard 2A6 formations and orchestrate precise attacks. Some drones are even outfitted with small bombs or missiles, giving them the ability to strike armored units directly. The Russian forces also employ the Kornet anti-tank guided missile system, specifically engineered to cut through heavy armor. The Kornet boasts a range of up to 5.5 km and employs laser targeting to ensure remarkable accuracy. Once a drone locks onto a target, it communicates with the Kornet’s fire control system, which can swiftly dispatch missiles with pinpoint precision. This blended use of reconnaissance and direct attack enhances the success rate of their strikes, making the Leopard 2A6 notably vulnerable on the battlefield. Ukraine’s most capable Soviet-era tank, the T-80, which features a powerful gas turbine engine similar to the Abrams, has also been frequently seen facing significant losses. While Ukraine has received a significant number of Western-built tanks, most of these are older models such as the Leopard 1 and Leopard 2A4. The more advanced Leopard 2A6 is often reserved for elite units like the 47th Mechanized Brigade. While videos increasingly showcase the obliteration of Ukraine’s other advanced Western-supplied tank, the M1A1 Abrams, the Leopard 2A6 has appeared less frequently on the battlefield. Deployed to the front lines much earlier, these tanks have rarely been spotted in combat scenarios. According to German sources, as of early January, only a small number of Ukraine’s Leopard 2A6 tanks remain operational, with the fleet suffering significant combat losses. The Leopard 2A6 tank fleet in Ukraine is on the big verge of defeat. Neither Berlin nor Washington has indicated plans to send more Leopard 2A6 or M1 Abrams tanks. Within the past 24 hours, news broke that Australia and the United States are in discussions to supply M1 Abrams tanks, retired from Australian service to Ukraine. According to unofficial sources, the number of tanks proposed is substantial. (Source: bulgarianmilitary)
by Nikolov

Nagorno-Karabakh
Saturday 21 September 2024 08:47, UK   Nagorno-Karabakh was claimed by both Azerbaijan and Armenia after the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917, and in Soviet times it was designated its official location an autonomous region within Azerbaijan. As the Soviet Union crumbled, the Armenians in the region - which Armenians call Artsakh- started a movement to unite with Armenia. This was followed by the first war, with Armenian forces taking control of the region and capturing seven surrounding regions as a "buffer zone" in the early 1990s. With no resolution to the conflict and no agreement over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, there were frequent but mostly low-level exchanges of fire across the region's border with Azerbaijan following the first war. From 1988 to 1994 about 30,000 people were killed. Armenians in Azerbaijan were victims of pogroms, while Azeris claimed discrimination and violence in Armenia. Around 500,000 Azeris from Nagorno-Karabakh and the areas around it were displaced, 350,000 Armenians left Azerbaijan and 186,000 Azerbaijanis left Armenia. In April 2016, at least 200 were killed in a four-day skirmish. An estimated 6,000 people died during the 44-day war in 2020, with Azerbaijan the victors. It saw Baku regain seven surrounding territories occupied by Armenians since the first war in 1994 as well as a third of the region itself. The latest attack by the much larger Azerbaijani army began on 19 September and lasted 24 hours, forcing the region's leadership to surrender and agree to dissolve its self-styled republic by January 2024. The Armenians had already endured acute shortages of food, fuel and medicine in a nine-month Azerbaijani blockade cutting off the region's road connection with Armenia, the Lachin corridor. That road had been reopened by Azerbaijan shortly before the bombs started falling, and would within days allow Armenians to leave the territory. During a desperate search for fuel, some Armenians were queuing at a storage facility near capital city Stepanakert on 25 September when a huge explosion killed more than 200 people. With no real sign of Russian peacekeepers - stationed in the region as part of the second war's ceasefire agreement - intervening, panic began to spread among the Armenians. Azerbaijan's attack on the enclave - which had been ethnically Armenian but is recognised internationally as Azeri land - one year ago forced 100,000 Armenians on an arduous escape to leave their home - possibly for good. The job market in Armenia is mainly concentrated in and around the capital, where housing is most expensive, and the border regions offer few opportunities. Other refugees have chosen to settle elsewhere, with some relocating to Russia, which was once seen by some Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh as their guarantor. With Armenian state support ending in January next year and local media reporting little more than 4,000 refugees have applied for citizenship, some believe more will choose to leave Armenia entirely. Nearly 11,500 refugees are said to have emigrated already, as of July. The refugees’ fate has echoes of the trauma suffered by Azerbaijanis for nearly three decades. While Nagorno-Karabakh has a significant Armenian history, for centuries it was also home to tens of thousands of Azeris, who became internally displaced people (IDPs) following the first war. While Azeris have the chance to finally return, it appears unlikely they will be joined in the foreseeable future by Armenians, many of whom fear living under an Azerbaijani government. Azerbaijan's autocratic president Aliyev, who replaced his late father in 2003, has frequently used anti-Armenian rhetoric. In a speech in December 2022, he said Armenia - referred to as ’Western Azerbaijan’ - "’was never present in this region before’ and "present-day Armenia is our land’. "It's impossible for the civilian population to live under Azerbaijani governance without some kind of international guarantee,” according to Tigran, the head of Regional Center for Democracy and Security, a Yerevan-based thinktank. 'Armenia's government hasn't been successful in raising awareness and funds internationally," Tigran said. Kim, a senior official at the US State Department, told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee "we will not tolerate any attack on the people of Nagorno-Karabakh" just days before Azerbaijan's offensive. Statements like that ’have not corresponded to the reality’, Tigran said, and it has been "business as usual' with Azerbaijan. For years, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has been referred to as a frozen - or forgotten – conflict. Since the second war, there remains a sense among Armenians they have been abandoned. People lived there, but the world stayed silent, as if nothing was happening to them. "The predominant feeling among refugees is they feel abandoned from all governments.’ (Source: news.sky)
by Minassian

Russia
September 21, 2024  “Russian authorities have reportedly tasked Russian forces with pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast by mid-October 2024 and establishing a "buffer zone" into Ukrainian border areas along the international border with Russia in northeastern Ukraine by the end of October - significant undertakings that the Russian military is very unlikely to achieve in such a short period of time,' the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the war. According to Ukrainian sources, the Russian military has gathered almost 40,000 men in the Kursk Oblast for the upcoming push to expel the Ukrainian forces in the area. The Kremlin seems to have a set a deadline to achieve this goal by the middle of October. “Putin has since remained committed to his crypto mobilization campaign, constraining Russia's mobilization potential,” the Institute for the Study of War added. (Source: nationalinterest)

September 21, 2024  As casualties mount in Kursk and Russia gains ground in Donetsk, the political cost of retreating will become higher, and Ukraine risks falling victim to the sunk cost fallacy. Once it became clear that the offensive failed to achieve its primary objective of diverting Russian forces away from the Donbas, Ukraine should have withdrawn from the border region to stabilize the frontline. Instead, Kyiv appears determined to stay in Kursk in hopes that it could be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, whereas Russia has prioritized its offensive in the Donbas. Ukraine has deployed over 15,000 troops, including elite units, to the Kursk region, thereby exacerbating its manpower shortage and allowing Russia to accelerate its advance in the east. As a result, Russian troops are now less than ten kilometers away from Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub, and their offensive is intensifying in the northwest of Donetsk, towards Chasiv Yar, and in the southwest, in Vuhledar. It seems as though Kyiv is placing too much political importance on Kursk; President Zelensky has argued in favor of bringing the war to Russia. Despite embarrassing the Kremlin, again, the incursion does not represent a threat to the regime, nor does it severely undermine its war effort, which is why it did not trigger a dramatic escalation. Ukraine has seized over 1000 square kilometers of Russian land, the territory itself is of limited strategic value and only consists of Suzha, a town of 5000 people, and small neighboring villages. If the objective is to force the Kremlin to negotiate a land swap, then Ukraine has to prove that it can hold the territory indefinitely. If after several weeks or months, Russia is still unable to fully dislodge Ukrainian troops, it may decide to use more destructive means, including the use of glide bombs, on Ukrainian-occupied territory. At some point, Ukraine will have to withdraw from the region; otherwise, it will incur a staggering loss of troops and resources. What started as a tactical success quickly became a strategic blunder. (Source: thenationalinterest *)
* The National Interest, an American bimonthly international relations magazine 

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Europe

Hungary
(Friday), 20.09.2024  Photos on social media and Hungarian media show that bridges and the banks of Danube, where the parliament building is also located in central Budapest, were flooded. The Danube level reached 780 cm high yesterday evening, and is expected to reach 850 cm at peak level on Saturday. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told today that the population seemed calmer than in the 2013 floods and called for them to avoid mobility over the weekend. PM Orbán says preparations to counter floods will stay in place until next Thursday. Eastern and Central Europe are grappling with Storm Boris. After hitting Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania, flooding was expected to affect Slovakia and Hungary next as a result of a low-pressure system from northern Italy that has been dumping record rainfall in the region. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes across a swathe of Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. (Source: aa *)
* Anadolu Agency

European Commission
20/09/2024 - 13:04  A loan was announced by der Leyen today during her visit to Kyiv, promising 'maximum flexibility' in how the money will be spent. 'The European Union will raise a €35 billion loan' to support the Ukrainian economy and military as the war-torn country battles to resist a renewed Russian offensive that has badly damaged the power systems and made territorial advances in the East. (Source: euronews)

European Parliament
September 20, 2024  'In a resolution, adopted yesterday with 425 votes in favour, 131 against and 63 abstentions, members of the European Parliament (MEPs) demand that EU countries lift current restrictions hindering Ukraine from using Western weapons systems against legitimate military targets in Russia'. (Source: euneighbourseast)

United Kingdom
(20 September 2024 11:56 AM)  King Charles expresses his profound shock and sadness after floods across Europe caused by Storm Boris forced thousands to evacuate their homes. Fatalities have been recorded in Romania, Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, with fears growing about the impact on Italy. Five people were killed in Austria, five in Czechia, seven in Poland and seven in Romania. In Hungary, flood waters continued to rise on Friday as authorities closed roads and rail stations. In Budapest water spilled over the city’s lower quays and threatened to reach tram and metro lines. Floods have threatened new areas and heavy rains have forced around 1,000 people in the northern Italian region of Emilia-Romagna to evacuate. The latest evacuations come as King Charles said he and his wife were “profoundly shocked and saddened to see the destruction and devastation caused by the catastrophic flooding in central Europe”. He said he sent their heartfelt condolences to those who have lost loved ones. King Charles said in a statement: “Many people in the United Kingdom have strong, enduring and personal ties to the region and, together with them, my wife and I send our deepest and most heartfelt condolences to all those who have so tragically lost their loved ones, their homes and their livelihoods. “We have immense admiration for the sheer courage and dedication of the emergency services across the region who have clearly worked relentlessly to provide desperately needed support, relief and assistance to the countless people whose lives and properties have been dreadfully disrupted". Storm Boris was triggered by a low-pressure system, where cold Arctic air collided with warm air from the south, further intensified by record-high sea-surface temperatures in the Mediterranean. The atmospheric pressure pattern caused the storm to remain stationary for an extended period. (Source: independent *)
* United Kingdom

Africa

Nigeria
(Friday,) September 20, 2024  Torrential rains sweep through West and Central Africa. While Africa is responsible for a small fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is among the most vulnerable to extreme weather events, the World Meteorological Organization said earlier this month. Over 4 million people have been affected by flooding so far this year in West Africa,, according to the U.N. Torrential rains across Central and West Africa have unleashed the most catastrophic floods in decades. The floods have killed more than 1,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands across the region this year. The countries which have been impacted the most: Chad, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. So far, at least 487 were reported dead in Chad, 55 in Mali, 265 in Niger, 230 in Nigeria in the most catastrophic flooding since the 1960s. Residents of Maiduguri, the capital of the fragile Nigerian state of Borno - which has been at the center of an Islamic extremists’ insurgency - said they have seen it all. Last week, floods killed about 80% of the animals at the Borno State Museum Park and an unspecified number of reptiles escaped. Houses were swept away to the very last brick, hundreds of inmates frantically were fleeing the city’s main prison as its walls got washed away by water rising from an overflowing dam. Corpses of crocodiles and snakes were floating among human bodies on what used to be main streets. Older people and people with disabilities did not know what was going on, and some were left behind. Those who did not wake up on time drowned right away. Over the last decade, Borno has been hit by a constant string of attacks from Boko Haram militants, who want to install an islamic state in Nigeria and have killed more than 35,000 people in the last decade. The World Food Program has set up kitchens providing food to the displaced in Maiduguri. USAID said Wednesday it has provided more than $3 million in humanitarian assistance to West and Central Africa. In Maiduguri, 15% of the city remains underwater, according to local authorities. As forecasts predicted more rains across the region, Nigerian authorities warned earlier this week that more floods are expected.
(washingtontimes)

Asia

Taiwan
(Friday), 20.09.24, 02:09 PM  How or when the pagers were weaponised and remotely detonated remains a public mystery and the hunt for answers has involved Taiwan, Bulgaria, Norway 'and Romania'. Authorities in Taiwan and Bulgaria today denied involvement in the supply chain of thousands of pagers that detonated on Tuesday in Lebanon in a deadly blow to Hezbollah. Tuesday's attack, and another on Wednesday involving exploding hand-held radios used by Hezbollah, together killed 37 people and wounded about 3,000 in Lebanon. Security sources said Israel was responsible for the pager explosions that raised the stakes in a growing conflict between the two sides. Taiwan-based Gold Apollo said this week it did not manufacture the devices used in the attack, and that Budapest-based company BAC to which the pagers were traced has a license to use its brand. "The components are (mainly) low-end IC (integrated circuits) and batteries," Taiwan's Economy Minister Kuo told adding, regarding the pagers: "I can say with certainty they were not made in Taiwan". Taiwan's Foreign Minister Lin, also speaking to reporters at parliament, answered "no" when asked if he had met with the de facto Israeli ambassador to express concern about the case. "We are asking our missions abroad to raise their security awareness and will exchange relevant information with other countries", he said. Taiwanese authorities look into any potential link between its sprawling global tech supply chains and the devices used in the attacks in Lebanon. The Shilin District Prosecutors Office in Taipei said it had questioned two people as witnesses and was given consent to conduct searches of their firms' four locations in Taiwan as part of its investigation. "We'll seek to determine if there was any possible involvement of these Taiwanese companies as soon as possible, to ensure the safety of the country and its people," the spokesperson said. Gold Apollo's president and founder, Hsu, was questioned by prosecutors late into the night yesterday, then released. Another person also at the prosecutors office was Wu, the sole employee of a company called Apollo System. Teresa did not speak to reporters as she left late yesterday. Hsu said this week a person called Teresa had been one of his contacts for the deal with BAC. Bulgaria also became a focal point for investigations yesterday, after local media reported that Sofia-based Norta Global Ltd was involved in selling the pagers. But Bulgaria's state security agency DANS said on today it had "indisputably established" that no pagers used in the Lebanon attack were imported to, exported from, or made in Bulgaria. It also said that neither Norta nor its Norwegian owner had traded, sold or bought the pagers within Bulgaria's jurisdiction. Iran-aligned Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate against Israel, which has not claimed responsibility for the detonations. The two sides have been engaged in cross-border warfare since conflict in Gaza erupted last October.
(telegraphindia / Reuters)

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