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Europe
North Macedonia
28.09.2024 "The Western Balkans deserve much more than they have received from Brussels so far. I want to say that these countries should have become EU members long ago," Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán said in a news conference in North Macedonia's capital, Skopje, where he met his counterpart, Hristijan Mickosk, emphasizing the importance of keeping Western Balkan countries’ EU membership on the agenda. "North Macedonia has been a candidate for EU membership together with Croatia since 2005. "Since then, Croatia has become an EU member, but negotiations with North Macedonia have not yet started. This is a huge mistake for the EU, and I can describe it as a historic mistake," said Orbán. He said he suggested to Mickoski that Hungary could mediate a dispute between North Macedonia and Bulgaria, provided both are willing. Bulgaria has been obstructing North Macedonia’s EU accession efforts, accusing it of disregarding historical and cultural ties. Sofia’s demands include the recognition that the Macedonian language is derived from Bulgarian and the acknowledgment of a Bulgarian minority in North Macedonia. Mickoski, in turn, reaffirmed North Macedonia's commitment to advancing its EU membership process and resolving ongoing issues. Due to Bulgaria’s pressure, the EU membership processes for North Macedonia and Albania have been separated. The first chapter of Albania's EU accession negotiations is set to open Oct. 15. (Source: anadoluagency)
Russia
September 28, 2024 The Russian Military isn't bluffing. The Russians, having committed to military reform, have a long-term strategic goal - Russia embarked on the State Armament Program from 2011 to 2020, focussing on modern reequipment, for both strategic and ground forces. NATO forces, on the other hand, are inexperienced and beset by political divisions. The question facing NATO is how quickly and with what quality the Russians can improve their military capability. The German chief of defense, Breuer, estimated in April that 'a Russian attack could be five to eight years away'. The Norwegian chief of staff, Kristoffersen, was quoted this month as saying that ’NATO has only two or three years to equip itself to face a strengthening Russian military’. The Russian forces have a great deal of experience in practice: Crimea, Syria, and the war in eastern Ukraine. The move away from a conscripted force toward a professional cadre has been on the whole, successful. Despite the excursion into Kursk, the Russian military, despite large troop losses in Ukraine, is able to reconstitute its forces. Ukrainian intelligence suggests the Russians can replenish forces by up to 30,000 per month. Inadequate training of troops, however, will mean that Russia may not see significant breakthroughs in 2024. Nevertheless, Putin's February 2024 decree incorporated the areas of occupation into the Southern Military District (SMD) which aims to provide, in Shoigu's phrase, “self-sufficient groupings of troops.” This, in effect, means a permanent Russian military command structure in Ukraine. Despite its robust performance, such as ground force losses in Ukraine, the most serious problem Russia faces in the future, is how to sustain equipment levels. Despite having improved its precision-guided targeting abilities, the necessity to fulfill equipment shortages will need a constant supply of support from allies such as Iran and North Korea. Russia's policy will struggle with increasing technology sanctions from the West. Chatham House notes Russia's particular skill in bypassing sanctions. A key factor of Western strategy will be to curtail the technological inputs into Russia's Military Industrial Complex. This could see a decline in the military-industrial functionality in Russia. Recapitalization of hardware and slowing innovation will hamper the Russian military build-up. The overall geopolitical situation is complicated. The looming prospect of deindustrialization in Europe - particularly in Germany from years of outsourcing to China and the high cost of energy - could lead to the collapse of the European Union project for Europe, it makes an expensive base for future industrial production. This will have knock-on consequences for the industrial military reboot of European security. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Bolger, University of Liverpool. He is an adviser to several Think Tanks and Corporates on Geopolitical Issues. He has taught political philosophy and applied linguistics in universities across Europe. His new book - ‘Nowhere Fast: Democracy and Identity in the Twenty First Century' is published now.
Asia
Iran
(Saturday), Sep 28, 2024, 10:00 AM US Secretary of State Blinken has called for a path to diplomacy as Israel intensified its strikes in Lebanon. "The choices that all parties make in the coming days will determine which path this region is on, with profound consequences for its people now and possibly for years to come”. "The most important thing to do through diplomacy is to try first to stop firing in both directions and then to use the time that we would have in such a ceasefire to see if we can reach a broader diplomatic agreement," Blinken told on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York yesterday. He reiterated the Biden administration's position that the US is still gathering information regarding Israel's recent military attacks on southern Beirut on Friday. Israel has pounded Lebanon since Monday morning, killing over 700 people and injuring nearly 2,200 others, according to figures released by the Lebanese Health Ministry. The ministry also said that the death toll in Lebanon since last October is 1,540, in addition to more than 77,000 displaced from southern and eastern parts of the country. Israel's tensions with Lebanon have continued since its genocidal war started on Gaza in October last year. Relentless Israeli bombing has killed more than 41,500 people, mostly women and children till date. (Source: en.mehrnews / MNA)
Lebanon
(Saturday), September 28, 2024 The US State Department today ordered the families of embassy personnel in Beirut to leave the country and authorized the departure of some staff, as the Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates. The department ordered the departure 'due to the increased volatility following airstrikes within Beirut and the volatile and unpredictable security situation throughout Lebanon,' it said. All US citizens were urged to leave "while commercial options still remain available." (Source: barrons / Agence France Presse)
(Saturday), 28/09/2024 - 17:25 What will mean for Lebanon as well as for the broader Middle East the death of longtime Hezbollah chief Nasrallah? Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is returning from New York where he was attending the UN General Assembly, will hold an exceptional cabinet meeting today evening focused on Nasrallah's death. The official stance of the Lebanese government has been to seek a de-escalation and the full implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Nasrallah's death and the continued bombardment of Beirut – the most severe of the past year – is fueling fears that cross-border tensions are on the verge of exploding into a wider conflict. The Lebanese population is sharply divided on the role Hezbollah plays in their politics. Some 30 percent of the population professing significant trust in the movement. Others are deeply resentful, wanting a Lebanon free from sectarian conflict. As an organisation, Hezbollah has in recent months been "significantly downgraded in military capability, leadership. Iran-backed Hezbollah did not enjoy support among Iran's regional rivals. There is even a sense of "relief" – 'hidden joy' ? – in some capitals following news of Nasrallah's death, with Hezbollah viewed as a destabilising force by many in the region's Arab capitals. None of the conservative Arab states have been particularly fond of Hezbollah which now faces the challenge of choosing a new leader after suffering the heaviest casualties of its 42-year history. Iran, for its part, announced five days of national mourning following Hezbollah leader Nasrallah's death, which "will not go unavenged', Supreme Leader Khamenei said in the statement on state television. General Nilforushan, a prominent member of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, died in the same airstrike that killed Nasrallah. Tehran's doctrine is of strategic patience, whereby they play the long game. Are they reluctant to engage Israel in any direct way? No reaction risks undermining Iranian credibility as an "Axis of Resistance' power and a deterrence against Israel. Tehran will seek to restabilize Hezbollah and rebuild its force. Nasrallah led the group for 32 years. The man widely regarded as his chosen heir, successor, Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah's and – like him – a cleric, the head of the group's executive council, who wears the black turban denoting a descendent of the Prophet Mohammed. The US State Department designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017. He oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs. Safieddine also sits on the Jihad Council, which manages military operations. His public statements often reflect Hezbollah’s militant stance and its alignment with the Palestinian cause. He has been vocal in his criticism of US policy. ’This mentally impeded, crazy US administration headed by Trump will not be able to harm the resistance, he said in 2017 in response to US pressure on Hezbollah, adding that the US moves would only strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve. (Source: france24 "with Reuters")
