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Europe
Czechia
(Wednesday), 25.09.2024 In an interview with The New York Times on Monday, Czech Republic President Pavel spoke about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for realism in Kyiv's war objectives. "Ukraine will have to be realistic about its prospects of recovering territory occupied by Russia," Pavel said, pointing to the growing fatigue felt across various sectors due to the 31-month-long conflict. In his assessment of the war's most likely outcome, the Czech leader said: "A part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily.' He cautioned that this 'temporary' situation could last for years, citing historical examples such as the former Soviet Union occupation of the Baltic states. Pavel expressed skepticism about either side achieving their maximalist goals. "To talk about a defeat of Ukraine or defeat of Russia, it will simply not happen," he said, adding: "So the end will be somewhere in between." (Source: anadoluagency)
European Council
September 25, 2024 10:00 AM The Council has adopted, by common accord with the President-elect of the Commission, the list of persons whom it proposes for appointment as members of the Commission until 31 October 2029. (Source: eureporter)
The list: https://tinyurl.com/2s7rsa5c
Russia
(Wednesday ), Sep 25, 2024 3:59 PM EDT Speaking at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council that considered changes in Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, President Putin announced today, that a revised version of the document states that an attack against his country by a nonnuclear power with the 'participation or support of a nuclear power' will be seen as their 'joint attack on the Russian Federation.' The change in the doctrine follows Putin’s warning to the U.S. and other NATO allies that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons to hit Russian territory would mean that Russia and NATO are at war. The threat, outlined in the nuclear doctrine’s revision was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Putin emphasized that Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack posing a 'critical threat to our sovereignty,' a vague formulation that leaves broad room for interpretation. The current doctrine says Moscow could use its nuclear arsenal “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.” Putin emphasized that the revised doctrine spells out conditions for using nuclear weapons in greater detail, noting they could be used in case of a massive air attack. “We will consider such a possibility when we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack assets and them crossing our state border,” Putin added, citing 'strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other flying vehicles.' Putin also said the revised doctrine envisages that Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to an aggression against its ally Belarus, adding that he has agreed on the issue with Belarusian President Lukashenko. Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian territory with missiles and drones in response to Moscow’s attacks. President Zelenskyy has said he will seek permission from his allies in the U.S. and Europe to use the longer-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, another red line for some of Ukraine’s supporters. The Biden administration has said it hasn’t given Kyiv permission for strikes with U.S. weapons deep inside Russia. “Regardless of whether you think this is a bluff or not, it’s never good when a major nuclear power loosens the conditions for nuclear use in its declaratory policy,” said Charap, senior political scientist at RAND. Russia is making slow but steady gains in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is seeking to discourage stronger Western support for Kyiv. (Source: pbs * / Associated Press)
* The Public Broadcasting Service, an American public broadcaster and television network based in Arlington, Virginia.
September 25, 2024 05:03 GMT From the beginning of the full-scale invasion, analysts have noted that nonethnic Russians have been disproportionately represented among the country's military casualties. 'More soldiers from the central Russian regions of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan have died than any other region in the country', according to a confirmed tally of war deaths compiled by RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service. Bashkortostan, a mid-Volga republic with a population a little over 4 million, has 2,981 confirmed deaths, according to RFE/RL's accounting, which used announcements on social media, obituaries, and other open sources to gather the data. In Tatarstan, which has a similar population, RFE/RL registered 2,691 deaths from the region. Those figures are reflected in the BBC Russian/Mediazona tally, which used a similar methodology: 2,705 confirmed deaths in Bashkortostan, and 2,259 in Tatarstan. In addition to mobilized soldiers sent to fight in Ukraine, other populations include prison inmates and private military company mercenaries, as well as "kontraktniki"- men who voluntarily sign contracts to fight, induced by extraordinarily high wages and veterans benefits, including for widows and survivors. Among kontraktniki, Bashkortostan leads Russia in the number of confirmed deaths: 965, according to the RFE/RL tally. Tatarstan ranked second, with 557 volunteer deaths. By comparison, only 135 volunteers from Moscow - with an official population of more than 13 million - have been confirmed as killed. The confirmed figures are assumed to be a major undercount given the difficulty in identifying deaths amid official secrecy. On September 20, the BBC Russian/Mediazona project - which tracks war deaths by monitoring funeral notices and other open-source data - reported it had confirmed more than 70,000 killed soldiers nationwide. Overall, BBC Russian/Mediazona estimated the total number of casualties nationwide ranging from 107,000 to 155,000. In the early phases of the war, the average Russian war death was a contract soldier in his early 20s, the project noted. Now, however, typical deaths are volunteers in their 40s, 50s, and even 60s, 'most often without military experience or specialized training.' (Source: rferl *)
* Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, an American government-funded international media organization.
Note: ’RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service is the only major international news provider reporting in the Tatar and Bashkir languages to audiences in the Russian Federation’s multiethnic, Muslim-majority Volga-Ural region’.
United Kingdom
25 September 2024 - 00:32 The UK government has announced plans to deploy 700 troops to Cyprus in preparation for a potential evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon, amid escalating violence between Israel and Hezbollah. British nationals are urged by Foreign Office to leave Lebanon now. British troops in Cyprus will be backed by Border Force and Foreign Office officials, while the Royal Air Force has transport aircraft and helicopters on standby. Additionally, two Royal Navy ships, RFA Mounts Bay and HMS Duncan, remain stationed in the eastern Mediterranean for support. During a similar conflict in 2006, British nationals were evacuated from Lebanon by sea. (Source: knews.kathimerini * / ITV News)
* the English edition of Kathimerini Cyprus
Africa
Sahel
(25 September 2024) 7:21 The Sahel has the potential to become a base for global jihad, like Afghanistan or Libya in the past. In Bamako, Mali, a group of terrorists attempted to infiltrate the Feladie gendarmerie school on the outskirts of the capital early on 17 September morning. The jihadis struck just before dawn prayers. They killed dozens of students at the elite police training academy, stormed Bamako’s airport and set the presidential jet on fire. It showed that jihadist groups with links to al Qaeda or islamic state, whose largely rural insurgency has killed thousands of civilians and displaced millions in Sahel countries Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, can also strike at the heart of power. Conflict was a major factor behind the increase in migration from the West African coast, with rising numbers of women and families seen along the route. The number of violent events involving jihadi groups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger has almost doubled since 2021. Since the start of this year, there have been 224 attacks a month on average, up from 128 in 2021. In Burkina Faso, perhaps the worst affected of all, jihadists affiliated with al Qaeda slaughtered hundreds of civilians in a day on 24 August in the town of Barsalogho, two hours from the capital Ouagadougou. Burkina Faso topped the Global Terrorism Index for the first time this year, with fatalities rising 68% to 1,907 – a quarter of all terrorism-linked deaths worldwide. About half of Burkina Faso is now beyond government control. The two, big veteran terrorist groups are gaining ground. JNIM, the al Qaeda-aligned faction most active in the Sahel, had 5,000-6,000 fighters while 2,000-3,000 militants were linked to islamic state. Their declared goal is to establish Islamic rule. Jihadists use a mixture of coercion and the offer of basic services, including local courts, to install their systems of governance over rural communities that have long complained of neglect by weak, corrupt, central governments. The jihadi groups operate in different areas, at times fighting each other, though they have also struck localised, non-aggression pacts. The groups receive some financial support, training and guidance from their respective global leaderships, but also collect taxes in areas they control and seize weapons after battles with government forces. Conflict in the Sahel is contributing to a sharp rise in migration from the region towards Europe. The UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) data shows the number of migrants arriving in Europe from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal rose 62% to 17,300 in the first six months of 2024 from 10,700 a year earlier. The swathes of territory under jihadist control also risk becoming training grounds and launchpads for more attacks on major cities such as Bamako, or neighbouring states and Western targets, in the region or beyond. Then who’re dealing with a jihadi state or multiple jihadi states in the Sahel? The military juntas that replaced Western-backed governments have since 2020 swapped French and US military assistance for Russians, mainly from Wagner’s mercenary outfit, but have continued to lose ground. The junta in Niger last year ordered the US to leave a sprawling desert drone base in Agadez. US troops and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) used drones to track jihadists and shared intelligence with allies such as the French, who launched air strikes against the militants, ’and West African armies’. The Americans were booted out after they angered Niger’s coup leaders by refusing to share intelligence and warning them against working with the Russians. Nobody else filled the gap of providing effective air surveillance or air support, so the jihadis are roaming freely in those three countries. European governments are divided on how to respond to West Africa becoming the world’s terrorism hotspot, with Southern European nations who receive most migrants favouring to keep communication with the juntas open. Others object 'because of human rights and democracy concerns'. (Source: euractiv)
by Gotev
Asia
Israel
September 25, 2024 The Israeli military said today it was calling up two reserve brigades for operational missions to the north, where its forces are involved in cross-border clashes with the Lebanese group Hezbollah. An Israeli infantry brigade typically has about 1,000 to 2,000 soldiers, while an armoured tank brigade has about 100 tanks. (Source: barrons / Agence France Presse)
NATO
September 25, 2024 1:24 PM GMT+2 NATO plans to coordinate the transport of a large number of wounded troops away from front lines potentially via hospital trains 'in case of a war with Russia'. The future scenario for medical evacuations will differ from allies' experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, as air evacuations may not be feasible. Western militaries would likely be faced with a much larger war zone, a higher number of injured troops and at least a temporary lack of air superiority close to the front lines, the German Lieutenant-General Sollfrank, the head of NATO's logistics command said. The German military has said ’it expects Russia to be able to attack a NATO country as soon as 2029’, while Russian President Putin casts the West as the aggressor for arming Ukraine. Sollfrank runs NATO's Joint Support and Enabling Command (JSEC), tasked with coordinating the swift movement of troops and tanks across Europe as well as logistical preparations such as the storage of munitions on NATO's eastern flank. Recently, JSEC - which is based in the southern German town of Ulm - staged an exercise in coordination of patient flows. Differing medical regulations between countries are another hurdle to overcome, Sollfrank said. A "military medical Schengen", akin to the political Schengen zone that allows free movement within most of the European Union, could be a solution. It could entail an area of free passage for sensitive medications such as narcotics or strong painkillers, which would be needed to treat wounded troops but whose cross-border transport is regulated. (Source: reuters)
