.
United States
Apr 20, 2025 The Trump administration attempts to choke off exports of strategically important computer chips to China. Silicon Valley semiconductor star Nvidia is one of the most important pieces in this (US) chess game with China. Nvidia and its US rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) expect big financial hits from new US licensing requirements for semiconductors exported to China, they notified US Securities and Exchange Commission this week. Nvidia expects the new rules to cost it US$5.5 billion, while AMD has forecast they could sap as much as US$800 million from the company’s bottom line, according to filings. Administration officials told Nvidia it must obtain licences to export its H20 chips to China because of concerns they may be used in supercomputers there, the company said. The United States has already restricted exports to China, the world’s biggest buyer of chips, of Nvidia’s most sophisticated graphics processing units (GPUs), designed to power top-end artificial intelligence models. Nvidia essentially developed the H20 chip for the Chinese market. The new licensing requirements pose a roadblock. For AMD, the new US export control measure applies to its MI308 GPUs, which are designed for high-performance applications like gaming and artificial intelligence, it said in a filing. It noted that there is no guarantee licences for sales to China will be granted. Independent tech analyst Enderle predicted Chinese chip makers – likely led by tech behemoth Huawei – will ramp up efforts to snatch the lead in the market. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore)
04/18/25 President Trump’s top economic adviser Hassett, chair of the White House National Economic Council, told yesterday the White House is exploring how to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell despite the legal guardrails on his position. Hassett served as the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump’s first term. A 90-year-old Supreme Court precedent likely protects Powell from being fired by the president for anything other than misconduct or severe neglect of office. The Fed chief is a lifelong Republican whom Trump himself appointed to the job in February 2018 and presided over four rate hikes, three of which were reversed the following year. (Source: The Hill - U.S.)
April 18, 2025 President Trump’s meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. /Video/ (Source: Fox News - U.S.)
Friday, 18 April 2025 Trump said the US is considering backing out of the peace process, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are “coming to a head” and insisted that neither side is “playing” him. It follows comments by US Secretary of State Rubio, who said earlier today, following talks in Paris among US, Ukrainian and European officials that the US may be ready to move on from efforts to secure a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine if progress is not made within the coming days. Rubio issued the same warning in a phone call today with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, telling him that if a clear path to peace does not emerge soon, the United States will step back from efforts to broker peace. Another meeting is expected next week in London, and Rubio suggested it could be decisive in determining whether the Trump administration continues its involvement. Trump told reporters today that he backed Rubio's remarks but that he remained "hopeful" that a peace deal could be reached. “Now, if for some reason, one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say you’re foolish. You are fools, you horrible people,” he said. “And we’re going to just take a pass. But hopefully, we won’t have to do that”. When asked about Rubio’s comments today, Kremlin spokesman Peskov told reporters that fairly complex negotiations are ongoing between Russia and the US. He said no direct talks between Trump and Putin are scheduled in the coming days. Trump said “Marco is right” that the dynamic of the negotiations must change, but stopped short of saying he's ready to walk away from peace negotiations. “Well, I don’t want to say that,” Trump said. “But we want to see it end.” (Source: ITV – United Kingdom)
16 April 2025 „Trump puts nuclear weapons on the agenda. The world should listen”. The US President has again stated his decades-long-held belief that he could strike a deal to rid the world of nuclear weapons. Trump has a dim view not only of the threat posed by the possession of nuclear weapons, but also the waste involved in keeping them. “We’re all spending a lot of money that we could be spending on other things that are actually, hopefully, much more productive,” he said in February, soon after returning to office. Trump failed during his first term to seriously engage with Russia on a nuclear control treaty (New START expires in 2026), or to influence his “friend” North Korean leader Kim whose arsenal has grown exponentially. Neither did Trump find an alternative to Obama’s Iran nuclear deal. But the point is that he took a personal interest in each. Trump may try again. But he would do so in the face of a belligerent Putin ’who has threatened to drop a nuclear bomb on Ukraine’ – the likes of which had not been heard since the Cuban missile crisis. In addition, by 2035, China may have 1500 nuclear warheads with world-class delivery systems – missiles, bomber aircraft and submarines – according to US estimates. American nuclear expert Gottemoeller recently outlined during a visit to Australia and in a speech at the Lowy Institute, a window of opportunity may open amid the global trauma. The nuclear triumvirate of the United States, Russia and China could work on parallel tracks to advance nuclear reductions (US and Russia) and secure measures of nuclear control (China). The US and Russia would publicly assure the world they will continue to abide by New START’s deployed nuclear warhead cap of around 1,550 each, and 800 delivery vehicles each. Meanwhile over the decade – such negotiations will take years – China’s total arsenal could be within reach of 1500 nuclear warheads, deployed and not deployed. The three would thus be closer to parity, although US and Russian arsenals, comprising deployed and non-deployed warheads and delivery vehicles, would be greater – thus continuing to provide the strategic equilibrium achieved under successive bilateral arms limitation treaties since the height of the Cold War when their stockpiles measured over 32,000 for the US and 46,000 for Russia. Russia and the United States have led global verification work for decades but confidence among other allies and partners increases with transparency in this meticulous process. The accounting, reductions and limitations of warheads and delivery systems must entail verification that the countries concerned have done what they have promised. Russia and the United States have led global verification work for decades but confidence among other allies and partners increases with transparency in this meticulous process. Although others are unlikely to invited to join in, the actions of Russia and the US could generate conditions for China – with state media previously asserting that its nuclear silos visible from space were in fact windmills – to deduce that the time has arrived to be more transparent and reiterate its adherence to adequate controls. Talks on a New START replacement treaty could also be possible after in parallel with a process to halt the war in Ukraine. Achieving these steps would send an electric current through the world of nuclear watchers. Commentary in Europe, Japan and South Korea is growing along lines previously unthinkable – that their countries should build their own nuclear weapons to fill any void opening in the US extended nuclear deterrent guarantee to its allies. The triumvirate would put paid to murmurings by other countries with nuclear weapons that they need to further build their arsenals. A tough appraisal of each of the three countries’ fundamental interests: The critical point is that the US, Russia and China all adhere to the belief that nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to humanity. /Source: The United States Studies Centre (USSC) - Australia/
by Hardy, a former Australian senior career diplomat and Australian Government official. Over three decades, she served in seven Australian embassies in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States and Europe, four at ambassador level.
April 15, 2025 Zelensky told CBS's 60 Minutes program that he believes 'Russian narratives are prevailing in the U.S.' and that he understood Vance to be 'somehow justifying [Russian President] Putin's actions' by presenting Ukraine as an aggressor, too. "I've also tried to apply strategic recognition that if you want to end the conflict, you have to try to understand where both the Russians and the Ukrainians see their strategic objectives," Vance told an interview with UnHerd published today morning. "That doesn't mean you morally support the Russian cause, or that you support the full-scale invasion, but you do have to try to understand what are their strategic red lines, in the same way that you have to try to understand what the Ukrainians are trying to get out of the conflict." He added: "I think it's sort of absurd for Zelensky to tell the [American] government, which is currently keeping his entire government and war effort together, that we are somehow on the side of the Russians." Vance said Zelensky's rhetoric "is certainly not productive". (Source: Miami Herald - U.S.)
(15 April, 2025) Trump administration freezes $2.2 billion in grants and $60 million in contracts Harvard funding, for refusal to curb campus activism, combating antisemitism, reforming university governance, admissions and hiring practices. (Source: Scroll - India)
Tue 15 Apr 2025 ’The Silicon Six’ American tech firms - Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Netflix, Apple and Microsoft - generated $11tn of revenue and $2.5tn of profits in the past decade. They have been accused of avoiding almost $278bn in US corporation income taxes over 10 years. (Source: The Guardian - United Kingdom)
Apr 15, 2025 The Federal Reserve is resisting pressure from the White House and Washington to spur big banks to buy more Treasury bonds. Still, the Fed isn’t accelerating regulatory changes that would encourage banks to load up on government debt, even though Treasury Secretary Bessent and JPMorgan CEO Dimon both support the idea. Wild swings in Treasury prices forced President Trump to reverse course on his sweeping tariffs, and investors remain spooked even after his backtrack. (Source: Semafor – website; it’s organization based in New York City, U.S.)
Apr 14, 2025 On March 21, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that U.S. shell companies and their owners can once again conceal their identities. Critics warn the move could weaken national security and spur illicit financial activity that puts the American public at risk. Treasury’s initial beneficial ownership information (BOI) disclosure requirement for all companies with less than 20 employees garnered bipartisan support and Trump’s approval during his first administration. But it was short-lived. American beneficial owners of foreign shell companies that register in the U.S. have been granted anonymity. Arms traffickers are one of the many malicious actors who have used U.S.-based shell companies to their benefit. Bout, a former Soviet intelligence officer turned 'merchant of death' is the kingpin of examples. Extradited to the United States in 2010 to stand trial on terrorism charges, Bout utilized a global network of shell companies, including 12 companies incorporated in Delaware, Florida, and Texas, to facilitate weapons trafficking to armed groups in Africa, Colombia, Afghanistan, the Middle East, and elsewhere. 'Bout may be the poster boy for U.S. shell companies engaged in black market arms sales, but he is only the tip of the iceberg', explained Austin, Executive Director of the Conflict Awareness Project. From a U.S. company in Maine tied to a Mauritius arms trafficking operation, to the convicted arms traffickers Soghanalian and Acelor who facilitated weapons air drops to the FARC rebels in Colombia, the shell game is what they were banking on - however unsuccessful in these instances - to hide from investigators’ eyes. And hide they do. U.S. shell companies have been successfully used as cover for illegal arms sales for decades. Asked during his confirmation process in January if anonymous shell companies pose threats to national security and public safety, in the final ruling, Secretary Bessent cited President Trump’s Executive Order 14192, entitled “Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation” and the administration’s policy to significantly reduce the private expenditures required to comply with Federal regulations to secure America's economic prosperity and national security as the reasoning behind the ruling. The original BOI requirements enjoyed widespread public approval. Now with only foreign nationals forced to register BOI, U.S. citizens may be used as legal fronts for international entities looking to benefit from the U.S.’s financial system and it wouldn't be the first time. According to investigations conducted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, some Pentagon suppliers have used U.S. front companies to win manufacturing bids. The contractors have obscured the fact that they were making U.S. military equipment abroad, risking equipment quality as well as national security while defrauding the U.S. out of millions of dollars. In one case, a contractor who used a U.S. shell company was secretly manufacturing safety gear for F-15 fighter jets in India while illegally exporting 'technical drawings for aircraft parts, nuclear submarine torpedo systems and attack helicopters.' Financial secrecy facilitates illicit activities, including defrauding the U.S. government. 'America’s retreat from leading efforts to uncover these shadowy financial networks is an unforced error that enriches and empowers our worst enemies,' warned Sibley, fellow and director of Hudson Institute’s Kleptocracy Initiative. „Treasury Secretary Bessent should reverse this interim ruling so that the American public and the U.S. financial system can enjoy more thorough protection against criminal actors who seek to hide their activities behind opaque American shell companies”. (Source: Responsible Statecraft - U.S.)
by Gate, a Research Intern with the Democratizing Foreign Policy program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft who holds a Master of Laws (LLM) from City University Law School, London. Her research focuses on the nexus between international law and U.S. foreign policy.
April 14, 2025 You cannot defend the United States from Texas or North Carolina or Florida only, former Commanding General of US Army Europe (2014–2017) Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Hodges said when asked about the role of US military bases on the continent. US forces are not in Europe to protect Europeans, he says. You have to have forward presence and forward capability to project air, sea, and land power, not just in Europe, the Mediterranean, Central and Eastern Europe, but into Africa, the Middle East, and the Arctic. Which US bases in Europe does he consider most critical for military operations on and beyond the continent? „It should be based on a strategic analysis that says: here’s our priorities, here’s our resources, here’s what we need”. But you still should be thinking about what risk you are taking and what you would lose. „We have such a small footprint in Europe, and we only have one of everything”. ’We had almost 300,000 troops during the Cold War, mostly in West Germany, Italy, and Turkey. We don’t need that anymore. Almost all of those bases have been turned over”. There are different arrangements on who pays for what. „We can’t just assume that we’re going to put a naval base in Italy or Greece and that they have to accept it. These are sovereign nations”. You need trust. Intelligence sharing is also a big factor. The intelligence capabilities are not just based on American satellites, but on ground stations inside European countries, strong intelligence sharing and bilateral agreements with countries like Germany and Poland. And, of course, you need headquarters to manage everything. „You could forget dominating the Mediterranean or being able to project power into Africa if you don’t have the access that we get from Italy, Spain, Greece, and Turkey. Most of the US Navy in Europe is based in Rota, Spain. The headquarters is in Naples. And we have Crete. That’s an important part of the Navy’s ability to protect our interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. The distances, maintenance, fuel, and all the stuff required to do what they do are based on having these airports and seaports. If you want to have sea power in the Mediterranean to help protect our interests, you have to have a presence”. This is huge money, and you have to have existing contracts and the maintenance when the ship pulls in. And what is the importance of the Eastern flank for overall US security? ’The ability to get there for deterrence’. If the missile defense systems in Poland and Romania were to close, what global threats would become more challenging for the US to counter? ’We brought back the Army Preposition Stock, in Europe, equipment for an armored division stored in Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Mihail Kogălniceanu (MK) Airbase, for example, in Romania, has developed over the last 10 years as a power projection platform into the Black Sea because of the airfield there, but also the troops that are there, the headquarters, the maintenance, the contracts, all of that. That’s the best place on the Black Sea for the United States. It’s also where NATO’s Black Sea air police mission flies from. It would leave a huge hole for the United States if we left MK. Now, of course, it’s a Romanian base. We are a tenant there. The French or the Brits could be there. I don’t know how that helps advance America’s interest, but the capabilities could eventually be replaced by another ally. In Poland, of course - where it sits on the map - being there with our Polish allies, right in the middle of where, if there was going to be a Russian attack somewhere, US forces could respond, be based at the V Corps headquarters in Poznan. It’s there to provide the leadership, command, and control for all the US forces on the Eastern flank. If you close that down, then you’ve got to come up with another way to provide that”. „Going back to President Obama, they wanted to shift out to the Pacific more. And then, of course, Russia had different plans. Russia invaded Ukraine, and we had to stop. It’s interesting to me that all the stuff that Russia has done happened after the US downsized, handed over bases, sent all the tanks home, and reduced our ability to deter and defend because we thought we’d never have to do this again. We thought it was over. But we don’t have unlimited resources. If the administration makes the strategic decision to prioritize the Indo-Pacific region, which is legitimate and is the prerogative of any administration to do that, then they have to start looking at, okay, what do they cut? My guess is that what gets cut first will be the rotational forces because that’s a lot of money. They use assets that already exist in Poland, Germany, and Lithuania. So if they’re cut, we’d lose capability, but you wouldn’t necessarily have to get rid of bases. If the Army as a whole, as I think it is going to happen, is going to take a major cut, then for sure, US Army Europe will be a billpayer. But because there’s only one of everything, one signal brigade, one artillery brigade, one air defense battalion, one combat striker unit, one airborne, one aviation, if you get rid of any of those, that’s a capability that’s gone. But I’d have to say that everything is on the table here”. Russia and China would watch to see US-based closure and troop withdrawals from Europe whether Europe could fill that gap, or if the US does something to mitigate that risk. Keeping in mind that US forces are not in Europe to protect Europeans. „They’re there for our strategic interests”. „As our presence in Europe gets smaller, the language from the administration downplays the importance of our European allies. Less people appreciate the benefit of forward presence in Europe and how we benefit from intelligence sharing and access. There’s always talk about the Arctic. There are several NATO allies in the Arctic, and you can’t replace that by seizing Greenland. It’s having the presence that the UK allows us to have, Iceland allows us to have, or Norway. There’s not much that we have in Europe that are needed in the Pacific from the army. „So, the administration would have to be asking Europe to protect our interests”. /Source: Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) – with offices in Washington, D.C., U.S. and Warsaw, Poland/.
April 12, 2025 Witkoff travelled to Russia yesterday to meet Putin and is expected in the Middle East for talks with Iran today, effectively leading yet another top priority national security assignment. Witkoff and Trump still maintain a strong personal relationship, according to multiple people familiar with their relationship. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore)
Friday, April 11, 2025 Illegal production and distribution of deadly fentanyl netted traffickers an estimated $1.4 billion in 2024, most of which was funneled through U.S. banks, according to the report by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). It said the estimate is based on 1,246 bank secrecy reports about suspected fentanyl-related activity. 57% of the suspicious bank reports on fentanyl trafficking originated from U.S. banks, savings and loan associations, or credit unions. A total of 32% came from check cashing, money orders, or similar services. “Mexico and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the top two foreign countries identified in subject address fields of [Bank Secrecy Act] reports analyzed, play key roles in the production of fentanyl and subsequent money laundering activity,” the report, made public on Wednesday, said. The 1970 Bank Secrecy Act requires financial institutions to report suspicious activity and transactions over $10,000. The operations of the fentanyl trade involve chemical brokers using front companies, money mules and U.S.-based intermediaries who buy fentanyl precursor chemicals from Chinese suppliers. Chinese chemical suppliers use e-commerce platforms to market fentanyl precursor chemicals. Payments were traced to bank wire transfers and online electronic funds transfers. The traffickers mainly deal in cash and peer-to-peer transfers. Other drug deals bitcoin payments, including suspected Darknet marketplace drug sales. Some of the money laundering of fentanyl proceeds took place through professional Chinese money laundering organizations that potentially facilitated the movement of illicit fentanyl proceeds on behalf of the cartels. Chinese groups rely on underground banking that allows Chinese nationals to acquire dollars in the U.S. while evading official curbs on acquiring foreign funds. The report identified the main cartels involved in the fentanyl trade as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion, both labeled as foreign terrorist organizations by the U.S. The two cartels largely control the fentanyl supply chain in Mexico and use precursor chemicals and manufacturing equipment from China The activities by the cartels are mainly carried out in Sinaloa and Jalisco. The drug is produced in clandestine laboratories, the report said. In addition to Mexico and China, other foreign nations involved in the fentanyl trade include Canada, the Dominican Republic, and India. Those nations have been linked to alternative sources of supply for precursor chemicals and fentanyl and through illegal online pharmacies. China remains 'the primary source country for fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill press machinery,' with nearly 50% of the chemicals traced to the fentanyl trade located in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Hebei provinces in eastern China, the report said. The cities of Wuhan and Shijiazhuang were linked to the most banking reports for fentanyl precursor sales. In the United States, states playing a key role in the fentanyl trade include California, Florida and New York. The areas served as collection points for illicit proceeds. FinCEN analysis also noted a substantial number of subjects in southwest border counties in California and Arizona. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a statement that the data “ultimately aids in the effort to save American lives.” Last week the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Mexican national Beltran Guzman, a leader of the Beltran Leyva Organization, known as BLO, for his alleged role in trafficking fentanyl, cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine into the U.S., ranking among the largest suppliers of cocaine for the past two decades, operating with violent impunity, threatening communities, and targeting key officials, all while profiting from their criminal schemes. The BLO has been linked by authorities to shootouts, murders, kidnappings, torture, and the violent collection of drug debts. Beltran Guzman is the nephew of Guzman Loera, the U.S.-imprisoned leader of the Sinaloa Cartel known as El Chapo. In December, Mexican police made the largest seizure of fentanyl in the nation’s history in Sinaloa, netting over a thousand kilos of the drug. That is calculated to amount to 20 million doses of fentanyl. The Drug Enforcement Administration said 70% of the 107,000 drug overdose deaths in 2023 were the result of abuse of synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. China’s continuing role in providing precursor chemicals to Mexican drug cartels involved in the fentanyl trade was a major reason President Trump imposed heavy tariffs on Beijing in what is now a full-fledged trade war. (Source: The Washington Times - U.S.)
.5 4 21 23:46
