Egyik 19

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Europe

France
Tuesday 11 March 2025  Army chiefs from more than 30 countries met in Paris today, for talks on creating an international force to deter future Russian aggression once a ceasefire is established. They include troop size, location and, crucially, military options in the event of a transgression. A French military official said the talks included nearly all 32 Nato countries – notably without the United States – as well as Commonwealth nations and Asian powers Japan and South Korea. France’s defence minister, Lecornu, said ahead of the meeting that Ukraine’s own army remained the main security guarantee for the country, adding that France ’will refuse any demilitarisation of the Ukrainian army’. Dutch defence minister Brekelmans said that it’s a dream for Putin, and it’s a nightmare for the rest of Europe Putin will continue his aggressive efforts to increase the influence and the territory of the Russian empire towards his dream to re-establish a Russkiy Mir, or a Russian world. Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk laid out some details around his plan for voluntary large-scale military training of Poland’s adult population in 2026, and expand the target to be able to train 100,000 people in 2027. Those taking part in the month-long training get a one-off salary of 6,000 Polish złoty (£1,200) – with the scheme open to all adults aged between 18 and 60. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Germany
March 11, 2025  Germany hosts about 20 U.S. B-61 nuclear bombs at the Büchel airbase. For much of the past few decades, „a majority of Germans were in favor of getting these nuclear weapons out of Germany”. ’Berlin needs an ambitious nuclear policy rethink that includes a push to recreate nuclear sharing 'at the European level'  - with the continent’s nuclear powers, France and the U.K.’ Leaders of Germany and Poland have already expressed openness to concrete nuclear sharing arrangements, like having French capabilities stationed in German or Polish soil. Members engaged in nuclear sharing would contribute financially to the burden of maintaining the French and British nuclear arsenal. For Europeanizing extended deterrence and nuclear sharing, one option would be to recreate NATO’s nuclear planning group at the European level, with France and the U.K. ’The EU could be collectively represented through the European Council president or the EU foreign affairs chief’;) ’The only other option for Germany’ aside from a ’European nuclear umbrella’ would be to pursue its own nuclear weapons. At this stage, given the „political fallout”, the financial burden and the time that it would take to make a German bomb ’is not a cost-effective alternative’. Germany needs to recommit to civilian nuclear research. Germany’s likely next chancellor CDU leader Merz calls for switching to hoping for the best and still preparing for the worst. ’Uncomfortable this might be for many in Germany’, this 'strategy has to include a Plan B' for nuclear deterrence for the possible end of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. (Source: Foreign Policy – U.S.)
by Benner, a co-founder and the director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin.

Romania
(11 March 2025)  Romanian ’far-right’ Georgescu has lost his appeal against a ruling barring him from participating in May's presidential election. The Constitutional Court issued the final ruling today afternoon. A large crowd who were gathered outside the court in Bucharest shouted "traitors" and "we are going nowhere". They chanted ’Georgescu is president’ and "freedom". (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Russia
Mar 11, 2025  Speaking at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, Kremlin spokesman Peskov cautioned against people getting excited about the prospect of Musk cutting off the Ukrainian military from his Starlink communications system or about Trump's decision last week to suspend military aid to Kyiv. "Don't rush to put on rose-tinted spectacles," Peskov told the audience. "We always need to hope for the best but be prepared for the worst. And we must always be ready to defend our interests." Peskov said that Russia was achieving its aims on the battlefield in Ukraine, regardless of what decisions the U.S. was taking. He said the amount of weapons circulating in Ukraine was so large that Kyiv had enough to keep fighting for many months despite the suspension of U.S. deliveries. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

March 11, 2025  Russia’s Defense Ministry said air defense systems shot down 337 Ukrainian drones - 91 drones over the Moscow region, 126 over the Kursk region, 25 over the Belgorod region, 22 over the Ryazan region, 10 over the Kaluga region, eight each over the Lipetsk and Oryol regions, six over the Voronezh region, and three over the Nizhny Novgorod region. overnight. By 8:45 a.m. local time today, Russian air defense forces had shot down 74 drones heading toward the capital. In the Moscow region, two people were killed and 14 others injured in the attack in the towns of Vidnoye, Domodedovo, and Ramenskoye, as well as the villages of Yam and Sapronovo. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) imposed temporary restrictions at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports. (Source: Meduza, based in Riga, Latvia)

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Europe

United Kingdom
11 March 2025  It’s not just Trump. The UK views critical minerals as a government priority and wants to open up Ukraine’s vast resources to British corporations. When UK officials signed a 100 year partnership with Ukraine in mid-January, they claimed to be Ukraine’s 'preferred partner' in developing the country’s 'critical minerals strategy'. Yet within a month, Trump had presented a proposal to Zelensky to access the country’s vast mineral resources as 'compensation' for US support to Ukraine in the war against Russia. Whitehall was none too pleased about Washington muscling in. When foreign secretary Lammy met Zelensky in Kyiv last month he reportedly raised the issue of minerals, 'a sign that Starmer’s government is still keen to get access to Ukraine’s riches', the iPaper reported. It’s no surprise why. Ukraine has around 20,000 mineral deposits covering 116 types of minerals such as beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, rare earth metals, and nickel. The country also possesses one of the world’s largest reserves of graphite, the largest titanium reserves in Europe, and a third of the continent’s lithium deposits. These resources are key for industries such as military production, high tech, aerospace, and green energy. In recent years, the Ukrainian government has sought to attract foreign investment to develop its critical mineral resources and signed strategic partnerships and held investment fora to showcase its mining opportunities. The country has also begun auctioning exploration permits for minerals such as lithium, copper, cobalt and nickel, offering lucrative investment opportunities. Media narratives largely parrot the UK government’s interests in Ukraine being about standing up to aggression. But Whitehall has in the past few years stepped up its interest in accessing the world’s critical minerals, not least in Ukraine. Ghani, trade minister in Rishi Sunak’s government, held at least 10 meetings on the subject of critical minerals in 2023 and the first half of 2024, government transparency data shows. Among the companies she met were giant UK mining corporations Rio Tinto and Anglo American, and arms exporter BAE Systems and military aerospace lobbyists, ADS. It is not clear if Ukraine was the subject of these discussions but one other prominent firm Ghani met to discuss 'mineral supply chains' was Rothschilds, which has extensive interests in Ukraine. Ghani held a discussion with the Paris-headquartered global advisory firm in April 2023 while her successor Mak did so the following year in May. Mak met the firm 'to discuss Rothschild’s critical minerals work', the data shows. The corporation was invited to the 2023 Ukraine Recovery Conference held in London and is a member of the UK-Ukraine Finance Partnership. It has also been the main adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance since 2017. Rothschilds, on whose board sits former UK national security adviser Lord Sedwill, has no less than $53bn invested in Ukraine. Writing recently in Unherd, researcher Lee quotes a senior Labour figure saying the UK was involved in extensive negotiations for the whole of last year relating to securing exclusive access to Ukraine’s minerals, but that adequate government support was not forthcoming. Some other meetings have crept into the public domain. Last April, two prominent UK parliamentarians met one of Ukraine’s largest mining investment companies in London to discuss 'British-Ukrainian partnership in the field of critical minerals mining'. BGV Group, which has investments of $100m in Ukrainian mining projects, held discussions with then energy minister Lord Callanan and Seely, then a Conservative MP who sat on parliament’s foreign affairs committee. The company is seeking investors for its graphite and beryllium projects and said in a media release that 'Ukraine has all the prerequisites to become one of Britain’s main suppliers of critical minerals crucial for advanced technologies and the green energy transition'. 'As Ukraine’s ultimate European ally, the UK could leverage its strong position within NATO to help secure mining sites and transportation routes', writes Dovbenko, the founder of UK-Ukraine TechExchange. The UK government’s ‘Ukraine Business Guide’ notes that 'Ukraine has vast resources' and 'a rich mineral base of iron ore, manganese, coal, and titanium'. Certainly, enhancing access to critical minerals has been a broad priority across Whitehall over the last three years. The UK produced its first-ever Critical Minerals Strategy in 2022 and updated this with a ‘refresh’ the following year. It identifies 18 minerals with'“high criticality' for the UK, including several present in Ukraine, such as graphite, lithium and rare earth elements. The UK’s strategy aims, among other things, to 'support UK companies to participate overseas' in supply chains for these minerals and 'champion London as the world’s capital of responsible finance for critical minerals'. As part of its critical minerals strategy, the government set up a so-called Task & Finish group, analysing the risks to UK industry, and including participants from BAE, Rio Tinto and ADS. The group highlights titanium, rare earth elements, cobalt and gallium as among the minerals with a supply risk to the UK military sector. The UK has also launched a Critical Mineral Intelligence Centre and established a Critical Minerals Expert Committee to advise the government. A report by the foreign affairs committee on critical minerals published in December 2023 concluded that 'the UK cannot afford to leave itself vulnerable on supply chains that are of such strategic importance'. A sign of how seriously the government is taking the issues is that it says it will 'ensure consideration for critical minerals is embedded' in the free trade agreements it is negotiating with a range of countries. Accessing minerals overseas often depends on loosening government regulations to enable foreign corporations to strike favourable deals. The 100 year partnership declaration commits the UK and Ukraine to 'supporting development of a Ukrainian critical minerals strategy and necessary regulatory structures required to support the maximisation of benefits from Ukraine’s natural resources, through the possible establishment of a Joint Working Group'. The thrust of the partnership is to 'support a more enabling environment for private sector participation in the clean energy transition' and to 'attract investments of British companies in the development of renewable energy sources.' More generally, the two sides will 'work together to boost and modernise Ukraine’s economy by progressing reforms that aim to attract private finance' and 'boost investor confidence'. As Declassified recently showed, British aid to Ukraine is focused on promoting these pro-private sector reforms and on pressing the government in Kyiv to open up its economy to foreign investors. Foreign Office documents on its flagship aid project in Ukraine, which supports privatisation, note that the war provides 'opportunities' for Ukraine delivering on 'some hugely important reforms'. The UK supports a project called SOERA (State-owned enterprises reform activity in Ukraine), which is funded by USAID with the UK Foreign Office as a junior partner. SOERA works to 'advance privatization of selected SOEs [state-owned enterprises], and develop a strategic management model for SOEs remaining in state ownership.' UK documents note the programme has already 'prepared the groundwork' for privatisation, a key plank of which is to change Ukraine’s legislation. 'SOERA worked hand-in-hand with GoU and proposed 25 pieces of legislation of which 13 were adopted and implemented', the most recent documents note. Much UK foreign policy and wars can be explained by Whitehall wanting British corporations to get their hands on other countries’ resources. The 2003 invasion of Iraq was mainly about oil while decades earlier the UK’s brutal war in Malaya in the 1950s was substantially about rubber. Britain’s support for apartheid South Africa is significantly explained by the UK wanting continued access to South Africa’s massive mineral resources. But the main concern now is China, which is the biggest producer of 12 out of the 18 minerals assessed by the UK as critical. The Ministry of Defence’s major geopolitical forecast, its ‘Global Strategic Trends’, released last year, makes 57 mentions of minerals, noting that they 'will become of increasing geopolitical importance' and could lead to 'new geostrategic rivalries and tensions'. History suggests that Whitehall’s international strategy on critical minerals, and its scramble for Ukraine’s, will continue to shape UK foreign policy and contribute to these future international tensions. (Source: Declassified UK)
by Curtis, the co-director of Declassified UK, and the author of five books and many articles on UK foreign policy.

Asia

Saudi Arabia
March 11, 2025  Diplomatic teams from Ukraine and the United States are holding talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, today in steps toward ending a full-scale war started by Russia in 2022. We're very open, and we want to have very constructive, friendly, partner conversation with our American partners, Yermak told reporters in Jeddah. He did, however, add that security guarantees are very important. /Photo/ (Source: NPR – U.S.)

Tuesday 11 March 2025  The US and Ukraine are currently locked in crunch talks in Saudi Arabia to try and find a way to end Russia’s invasion. One of the proposals that Ukrainian officials brought to the talks in the port city of Jeddah was a truce in the air and sea that would halt such attacks. The meeting has begun very constructively, Yermak, Mr Zelensky’s chief of staff who is leading the Ukrainian delegation, wrote on Telegram. Ahead of the talks, Mr Yermak said Ukraine stands ready to do everything to achieve peace and security guarantees remained key for Ukraine. US national security adviser Waltz, who is part of the Washington delegation, said during the afternoon that the negotiations with Ukraine were getting there – with the talks stretching beyond six hours. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, who is leading the delegation from Washington, said he would not be proposing any specific measures to secure an end to the conflict but rather wanted to hear from Ukraine about what it would be willing to consider. “I’m not going to set any conditions on what they have to or need to do,” Mr Rubio said. “I think we want to listen to see how far they’re willing to go and then compare that to what the Russians want and see how far apart we truly are.” Putin has not publicly offered any concessions. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Tuesday 11 March 2025  “The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things, like the Russians are going to have to do difficult things, to end this conflict or at least pause it in some way, shape or form,” US Secretary of State Rubio has said ahead of high-level peace talks in Saudi Arabia. “I think both sides need to come to an understanding that there’s no military solution to this situation.” “It has been a costly and bloody war for the Ukrainians. They have suffered greatly and their people have suffered greatly, Mr Rubio acknowledged. “It’s hard in the aftermath of something like that to even talk about concessions, but that's the only way this is going to end and prevent more suffering.” (Source: Independent – United Kingdom)

March 11, 2025  American and Ukrainian officials will meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for major talks today with the goal of charting a course toward ending Russia's three-year-old war. "The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things," Secretary of State Rubio - who will lead the U.S. delegation - said yesterday ahead of the talks. The U.S. delegation include Rubio, national security adviser Waltz and Middle East envoy Witkoff. Ukraine's negotiating group will include Yermak -- the head of Zelenskyy's office - Foreign Ministry Sybiha, Defense Minister Umerov, and Deputy Chief of Staff Palisa. Yesterday, Zelenskyy - who will not take part in today's talks -- traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet with crown prince and de facto ruler Salman and said he hopes for practical outcomes, from the U.S.-Ukraine meeting. Trump's administration is pushing Kyiv to make concessions in pursuit of a peace deal to end Russia's invasion. The White House also wants Ukraine to sign off on a minerals sharing agreement Trump has framed as a way to recoup tens of billions of U.S. aid sent to Ukraine since 2022. Rubio said finalizing the mineral deal with Ukraine was "an important topic, but it's not the main topic on the agenda." "There's still more details to work out." Rubio said the Russians "are going to have to do difficult things" too, though Trump and his top officials have not said what concessions Moscow may be asked to make. (Source: ABC News - U.S.)

North America

United States
March 11, 2025  On March 3, Trump paused material military aid to Ukraine, and two days later, the U.S. stopped sharing intelligence with Ukrainians. The United States says Ukraine has agreed to its proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The decision on intelligence has been reversed following Ukraine’s agreement with the ceasefire proposal. 'France and the United Kingdom have emerged as Ukraine’s biggest backers in Europe. 'Both countries have been among Ukraine’s most vocal supporters over the last few years. ’The renewed support from the EU and the U.K. may allow Ukraine to continue fighting’. ’From Ukraine’s perspective, it needs a new partner in its war against Russia, and the EU can serve that purpose’. „The U.S. may be the country pushing for a ceasefire in Ukraine, but it’s Europe that will play the most vital role in Ukraine’s ability to win the war if it endures’. (Source: The Conversation, a network of media outlets online, with European editors in France, Spain and the UK. Headquarters Melbourne, Victoria, Australia)
by Horncastle, Assistant Professor, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada)

Global

11 March 2025  'Across Europe, arms imports soared by 155 per cent between 2020–24 compared to the previous five-year period. Ukraine’s imports were increasing nearly 100 times over compared with 2015-19, according to the report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), published on March 10. Ukraine accounted for 8.8 per cent of global arms imports and at least 35 states supplied weapons to the country, with the US leading at 45 per cent of its imports, followed by Germany (12 per cent) and Poland (11 per cent). The US dominated global arms exports, accounting for 43 per cent of total sales, followed by France at 9.6 per cent. Europe has become more dependent on US weapons. According to the report the US has accounted for 64 per cent of European NATO states’ arms purchases over the past five years, up from 52 per cent between 2015 and 2019. European NATO members more than doubled their arms imports compared to the previous five-year period. Almost 500 combat aircraft and other weapons were still on order from the US despite efforts to bolster Europe’s own arms industry. France saw its arms exports to Europe grow by 187 per cent, driven by combat aircraft deliveries to Greece and Croatia, although India took the largest share (28 per cent). The US supplied 107 countries, with Europe overtaking the Middle East (35 per cent compared to 33 per cent) as the top destination for US arms for the first time in two decades. Saudi Arabia remained the largest single recipient, taking 12 per cent of US exports. Some major arms importers, including Saudi Arabia, India, and China, experienced significant declines in import volumes for various reasons, despite high threat perceptions in their regions, said George, SIPRI programme director. Asia and Oceania, despite a 21 per cent drop in imports, remained the largest arms-importing region at 33 per cent of global transfers, with India as the second-biggest importer worldwide. China’s imports fell 64 per cent, reflecting its growing domestic arms production. It was the fourth-largest exporter of arms in 2020–24, with 5.9 per cent of global arms exports. Despite China’s efforts to increase its arms exports, many large importers do not buy Chinese arms for political reasons. Arms imports in West Africa almost doubled (+82 per cent) between 2010-14 and 2020-24. Arms suppliers are using arms exports to boost their influence in this part of the world, including emerging suppliers - primarily Turkey - alongside more established actors such as China, France, Russia and the USA. Nigeria was by far the largest importer, accounting for 34 per cent of West Africa’s total arms imports during this period. While the volume of imports remains relatively small, it has important geopolitical implications. States like Burkina Faso, Mali and Senegal seem to be rapidly increasing their imports. Russia supplied 33 nations. It’s exports fell by 64 per cent, citing battlefield needs, sanctions and pressure from the US and allies. Receiving two-thirds of its exports, Russia supplied India (38 per cent), China (17 per cent) and Kazakhstan (11 per cent). (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)
by Deconinck

1 March 2025  Morons writing half-wit stories - journalism now corrupted by leftie activists. Moronification: the educational process that turns promising, intelligent, and semi-sentient young people into fully-functional halfwits. The collapse of editorial standards in the Anglophone media has been through a steady process over the decades, and its main engine has been the capture of journalism-schools by left-wing activists. An almost natural process by which lefty-journalists, usually not being very good at their job and attracted by the amazing holidays and generous salaries offered by colleges and universities, have steadily colonised media-studies courses. This process has normalised the insertion of a left-wing terminology in mainstream media. ’Far right’ is now routinely used – even by “conservative” media – to describe any political movement that wishes to protect the ethnic national identity of any western society or intends to control inward immigration. As the heart-breaking, bloody crisis in Ukraine continues, its mysteries are deepened by the appalling terminological imprecision with which it is covered. Let us hope we are in the final stages of a truly evil war, the terrible truths about which probably remain very secret, and are likely to remain so for a very long time. That the EU was guilty, by smugness, turpitude, laziness and cowardice, for allowing the developing crisis to become a military and moral catastrophe is indisputable. The criminal responsibility of various US governments under Obama and Biden for this monstrosity is similarly irrefutable. The US was waxing hysterical over both the accidental manslaughter of the serial criminal Floyd and the utterly cruel delusions of transgenderism, the latter being as morally wicked and scientifically-deranged as the witch-trials across Europe in the 16th and 17th centuries. Why would Putin not think a war against Ukraine yield quick results? Could he not see how cultural moronification had made the West, especially the US, quite incapable of opposing him? For if our media are bad, and they really are, Europe’s political classes, who have shaped the ladies and gentlemen of the reporting classes around their own selfish, short-sighted priorities, are even worse as another potentially catastrophic horror-story is unfolding in Romania. This too has been characterised by lazy or tendentious and invariably moronified journalism. The EU-supported cancellation of Romania’s elections last December is a truly scandalous departure from the self-proclaimed values of the European Union. Neither term - far-right and pro-Putin- even if accurate, would implicitly justify Georgescu’s exclusion from the democratic process, It is surely a searing indictment of both the EU and its leadership that this crisis had so deepened that Vice President Vance recently felt authorised to speak out about it. To put it all in terms of the 1930s, Ukraine, Romania and Taiwan might well be (if only roughly) the equivalent of Manchuria, Abyssinia and the Anschluss. But at least in those days, democracies were protected by large armies and the political and cultural acceptance of the need for conscription. Poor befuddled Generation Z stand between the West and a global disaster like Emperor Selassie’s light cavalry against Mussolini’s mustard gas, aircraft and tanks. May God now help them, because ’we’ catastrophically failed to do so. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)
by Myers, an Irish journalist, author and broadcaster. He has reported on the wars in Northern Ireland throughout the 1970s, Beirut and Bosnia.

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Europe

Latvia
09th Mar 2025  'European countries should absolutely introduce conscription says Latvian president Rinkevics'. (Source: Joe - a website. Headquarters Dublin, Ireland)

Romania
(Monday), 10.03.2025  Romania’s Central Electoral Bureau (BEC) on Sunday rejected the candidacy of independent politician Georgescu, a staunch critic of the West and NATO, for the coming presidential election on May 4. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Russia
09.03.2025  France will provide Ukraine with 195 million euros ($211 million) in military aid using the interest from frozen Russian assets, French Defense Minister Lecornu said. 'The new aid package will support the delivery of 155-mm artillery shells and AASM gliding bombs, which will be used by Ukrainian Mirage 2000 aircraft'. 'France is also expediting the transfer of older military equipment, including tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine'. The UK reached a similar agreement with Ukraine on March 1 'to provide a $2.84 billion loan for defense purchases, also backed by frozen Russian assets'. Western countries have frozen roughly $300 billion in Russian assets since the onset of the war. The majority of these funds remain inaccessible, with only about $3.2 billion annually available in interest to fund initiatives like the one announced by France. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Ukraine
March 10, 2025  Across much of Ukraine, beneath the surface lies the Ukrainian Shield, a massive, exposed crystalline rock formed over 2.5 billion years ago. It’s minerals have become central to global geopolitics. Ukraine has deposits containing 22 of 34 critical minerals identified by the European Union as essential for energy security. It has three major lithium deposits: Shevchenkivske in the Donetsk region, Polokhivske and Stankuvatske in the centrally located Kirovograd region. The Shevchenkivske lithium deposit contains high concentrations of spodumene - the primary lithium-bearing mineral used in battery production. Its reserve is estimated as 13.8 million tonnes of lithium ores. Extracting it requires an estimated US$10–20 million in exploration investment before mining can begin. The Polokhivske deposit at is approximately 270 thousand tons of lithium is considered one of the best lithium sites in Europe because of its favourable geological conditions, making extraction more economically viable. The war with Russia has disrupted mining operations and damaged infrastructure. The price of lithium has surged from US$1,500 per ton in the 1990s to around $20,000 per ton in recent years. According to the International Energy Agency, the number of electric vehicles is projected to exceed 125 million by 2030. A Tesla Model S battery requires approximately 63kg of high-purity lithium. Major automakers are investing billions in electric vehicle production - around 80% of the lithium produced globally is used for battery production. Demand is expected to increase nearly 40-fold by 2040. According to the US geological survey, Ukraine ranks globally as the third-largest producer of the mineral rutile – making up 15.7% of world’s total output. It is the sixth-largest producer of iron ore (3.2% of total output) and titanium (5.8%), as well as the seventh-largest producer of manganese ore (3.1%). Ukraine also has Europe’s largest uranium reserves, crucial for nuclear power and weapons and rare earth elements, including neodymium and dysprosium, which are needed for manufacturing everything from smartphones to wind turbines and electric motors. It is home to the world’s largest proven reserves of manganese ores. There’s approximately 2.4 billion tonnes of it concentrated primarily in the Nikopol Basin on the southern slope of the Ukrainian Shield. The strategic significance of Ukraine’s minerals has gained recognition in international diplomacy. A proposed minerals deal with the US would involve Ukraine contributing 50% of future proceeds from state-owned mineral resources, oil and gas and other extractable materials to a reconstruction investment fund for Ukraine’s post-war rebuilding. The fund would be jointly managed by Kyiv and Washington. Getting access to Ukraine’s minerals in exchange for military protection means the US can avoid having to buy these minerals from China. Ukraine’s mineral wealth positions it as a potential leader in the clean energy revolution. Even with a 50% allocation to the US, it would still be able to fund domestic infrastructure, industry growth, jobs, economic recovery. (Source: The Conversation, a network of media outlets online. Headquarters Melbourne, Victoria, Australia)
by Raji, Research Fellow of Geology, University of Plymouth – United Kingdom)

(9 March 2025)  Russia has already taken back more than two-thirds of its territory in Kursk initially seized by Ukraine. /Photo/ (Source: Gulf Today - United Arab Emirates)

Europe
10/03/2025  ’Faced with the United States' withdrawal’, the 27 ’EU member states are taking their security back into their own hands, giving the green light to a plan to rearm Europe, including a budget of €800 billion’. The European Commission has also proposed that member states derogate from the EU's orthodox budgetary rules to finance their defence spending. Dissenting voices are speaking out against the continent's further armament. 'The rearmament of Europe is the next great folly of the European Union," declared Varoufakis, the co-founder of the pan-European leftist DiEM25 movement. "It's going to make us less safe. It will make life nastier, more brutish, shorter in Europe," he added. He believes that defence spending will not generate growth where it is needed. He believes expanding Europe's military would 'dissolve the social fabric' without guaranteeing security. 'It's a way of weakening Europe in the name of making it stronger,' Varoufakis explained. In Germany, Chancellor-in-waiting Merz has opened the door to ’relaxing the debt brake’ to allow investment in the country's infrastructure and defence. ’This is a 180 turnaround’ for the otherwise prudent country, which favoured strict fiscal rules for Greece during the financial crisis'. As the former Greek finance minister who opposed Europe's austerity policy, Varoufakis positively greeted this paradigm shift - albeit with some reservations. "Instead of investing in life, he is investing mostly in death. And if you look at it from a realistic macroeconomic point of view, this is not going to generate growth where it is necessary," Varoufakis explained. "When you buy ammunition, when you buy shells and put them on a shelf, this is not a productive investment." Varoufakis instead calls on Europe to put its own peace plan on the table. "We need to counter-propose our own peace plan. Rearming Europe, buying more weaponry from British Aerospace, from Dallas, from Rheinmetall, this is not going to make any difference to Ukraine. Ukraine needs a peace plan from Europe now". "Pacifism is never a good response to invasion, but opting for endless war is not rational either," Varoufakis concluded. (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)

(9 March 2025)  The recent abrupt turn in US foreign policy calls into question a whole range of things the world has taken absolutely for granted. Europe could weigh Trump risk to its US weapons systems. When US foreign policy abruptly changes, the aircraft remain - but contractors, spare parts and badly needed software updates suddenly disappear. Within weeks, more than half the aircraft are grounded. This was the reality for Afghanistan in 2021. Today, a similar spectre haunts US allies in Europe. Many European governments are feeling buyers’ remorse for decades of US arms purchases that have left them dependent on Washington for the continued functioning of their weaponry. If they see how Trump is dealing with Zelenskyy, they should be worried. The Nordic and Baltic states need to think: Will he do the same to us? Most European militaries depend heavily on the US for communications support, for electronic warfare support, and for ammunition resupply in any serious conflict. America was accounting for 55 per cent of Europe’s defence equipment imports between 2019 and 2023 - up from 35 per cent in the previous five years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. An appraisal of dependencies and vulnerabilities across international partners - including the US.- would allow reflection on whether there needs to be any strategic changes. What’s the point of Denmark sending F-35s to protect Greenland? Whether the F-35s would fly if the US did not want them to? The plane relies on continuous updates and maintenance support from the US through its Autonomic Logistics Information System - which is to be replaced by a successor programme known as Odin, the Operational Data Integrated Network. The systems manage everything from mission planning and threat databases to maintenance diagnostics. The problem with really sophisticated defence equipment is that it needs so much support from the vendor, that if the vendor decides to stop supporting it, the equipment stops working, if not instantaneously then very, very quickly. More than half of Europe’s advanced combat aircraft - mainly the F-35 and the F-16 - are bought from the US. The UK - a top buyer that makes many parts for the plane - asked for guarantees of operational sovereignty, but no US ally has Washington’s level of access to the source code for the system. Britain’s deterrent has come under particular scrutiny because it relies on submarines armed with Trident ballistic missiles. These missiles are leased from the US and regularly return to the US base in King’s Bay, Georgia for maintenance. Missile testing is also carried out under US supervision at Cape Canaveral in Florida. This reliance is a constraint on the independence of the system. Trident is part of the Mutual Defence Agreement between the US and UK that was prolonged indefinitely when it was re-ratified last November. Given the role the US plays in maintenance, Cunningham, analyst at Agency Partners argued Britain should at least investigate the possibility of using France’s M51 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. France and Britain are the only nuclear powers in Europe. Important parts of the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance airborne fleet in Europe was effectively mortgaged to the US and predicated on their collaboration. Specific examples include the UK’s Rivet Joint spy planes, P8 Poseidon submarine hunters (used by Norway and ordered by Germany), Wedgetail early warning aircraft, and Protector drones. Many European nations use the US Reaper drone, made by General Atomics, which relies on US-provided satellite communication links and software support. Italy and France needed a lengthy US permission process to equip the drones with missiles. The concern in European capitals is not so much about specific weapon systems but the potential for the US to withdraw communications support and information sharing across any platform, from fighter jets to Chinook and Apache helicopters as well as air-defence systems such as the Patriot. While Trump may have rattled the transatlantic alliance, Finkielman, director of DI Danish Defence and Security Industries, said day-to-day contacts on the industry side continued as normal. “There is a lot of uneasiness about what’s going to happen, but up until now we haven’t felt any changes in the relationship with the US.” Finkielman noted that Denmark made more than 100 parts for F-35 aircraft itself, and was one of many national suppliers. “I don’t know what capability the US has to produce them if they don’t get the Danish elements,” he said. The chief victim of the uncertainty, meanwhile, is just as likely to be the US arms industry, rather than its European customers. Trust is something you can only break once. Shares in America’s leading defence groups have significantly lagged those of their European rivals, which have boomed since Trump’s return to the White House. Though no US orders have been cancelled, few doubt that Europe will begin taking a more independent approach. Heaven help the US arms industry. This is catastrophic from an export standpoint. (Source: Financial Times – United Kingdom)

Asia

Saudi Arabia
Monday, March 10, 2025  Zelenskiy travels to Saudi Arabia today. Ahead of talks between Ukrainian and U.S. officials on ending the war with Russia at an increasingly precarious moment for Kyiv, Zelenskiy is expected to meet the Saudi crown prince. He has said he will not attend tomorrow’s talks with U.S. officials, where the Ukrainian delegation will include his chief of staff, his foreign and defence ministers and a top military official in the presidential administration. Tomorrow’s talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials are expected to focus on a bilateral minerals deal and how to end the war. The United States has upended its wartime policies in its stated pursuit of a rapid end to the fighting, engaging directly with Moscow while cutting off military assistance and intelligence sharing for Kyiv. U.S. officials said they were planning to use the meeting with the Ukrainians in part to determine whether Kyiv is willing to make material concessions to Russia to end the war. Zelenskiy has said Kyiv is ready to sign the minerals deal with the U.S., which would create a joint fund from the sale of Ukrainian minerals. Washington says it is crucial to secure continued U.S. backing. Zelenskiy has called for a truce in the air and at sea, as well as a prisoner exchange, in what he says could be a test of Russia’s commitment to ending the war. Trump special envoy Witkoff, who has been arranging the talks, has said the idea is to “get down a framework for a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire as well”.“You can’t say ‘I want peace,’ and, ‘I refuse to compromise on anything’,” one of the officials said of the upcoming talks. “We want to see if the Ukrainians are interested not just in peace, but in a realistic peace,” a second U.S. official said: Trump said yesterday that he expected good results out of the upcoming talks, adding that the United States had “just about” ended a suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv. With U.S. support in question, Zelenskiy has been urging his European allies to ramp up their support as Kyiv’s battlefield position deteriorates and it faces mounting pressure to retreat from Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region are nearly surrounded by Russian forces, open source maps show. Moscow has rejected the idea of a temporary truce, which has also been proposed by Britain and France, saying it was a bid to buy time for Kyiv and prevent its military collapse. (Source: DD News, an Indian state-owned Hindi news television channel / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Syria
03/10/2025  Some of the heartbreaking news that has come out of Syria recently: Boutros, a Greek Orthodox priest at the Church of St Elias in Tartus killed in cold blood; Kawi, in Latakia’s al-Datour neighbourhood; an entire family in the town of Banias – grandparents, parents, children – slaughtered in their home; a Christian man, Khoury, in the Syrian Maronite village of Dahr Safra; the mayor of Al-Mazraah, a Christian village in Wādī an-Naṣārá (Valley of Christians); two Christians – father and son – of Armenian origin, in Latakia; the father of Fr Bechara, a priest with the parish of Notre-Dame of the Annunciation, shot in Banias - dozens of men, seniors, women and even children killed, execution-style only because they were Christians, all killed by gunmen affiliated with the new Syrian government of President Sharaa (nom de guerre Julani). The Christian website Assyro-chaldéens, l'histoire continue cites local sources. (Source: AsiaNews, an official press agency of the Catholic Church's Pontifical Institute for Foreign Missions (PIME), which headquarters Rome, Italy)

2025-03-09  The death toll from violent clashes in Syria’s coastal region has risen to more than 1,000, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported today. /Photo/ (Source: Shafaq News - Iraq)

North America

United States
Monday 10 March 2025  US F-35 fighter jets are the most sophisticated aircraft available to Europe, purchased by 13 European countries. 'Washington can decline to update the AN/ALQ-131 electronic jamming equipment used by the F-16 fighter jets sent to Kyiv to repel Russian air defences. This would significantly reduce the strength of the F-16s'. European countries are now asking whether the same could happen to the fighter jets they have purchased. Such a move would break European trust in American weapons manufacturers, ultimately proving problematic in the long term. The US has not commented on whether they have the power to ‘kill’ a country’s use of weapons it has sold or leased. There is, however, precedent for countries suspending weapons purchases from the US due to such issues. In 2021, the United Arab Emirates indefinitely suspended the purchase of 50 F-35s, part of a $23 billion deal that also included drones and other advanced munitions, due to what one UAE official described as “sovereign operational restrictions”. Last week, Switzerland’s defence ministry admitted no advanced Western fighter jets were fully independent of US secure data communication systems and GPS satellite navigation. As Germany prepares to receive 35 F-35s in 2026, which cost them €8.3 billion, plus several billion more for the associated infrastructure, local MPs are questioning whether they, like the UAE, should never have made the purchase. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

3/10/2025  The US president's recent remarks reveal that Washington 'is no longer committed to defending Japan, South Korea or Taiwan', an analyst says. US President Trump has issued what analysts are calling an "advance warning" to Japan and South Korea. Last Thursday, he called the long-standing US-Japan security treaty unfair. "I love Japan," the US president declared. "We have a great relationship with Japan, but we have an interesting deal with Japan that we have to protect them, but they don't have to protect us.” The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between Japan and the United States, signed in 1951 and updated in 1960, commits Washington to defend Japan if it is attacked. However, Japan has no reciprocal obligation to come to America's aid. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba responded cautiously. "Japan has no obligation to protect the US, that is true, but Japan is obliged to provide bases for the US," he said. The agreement has allowed the US to establish military bases across Japan, which today house around 50,000 American service members. Meanwhile, Defence Minister Gen Nakatani said he had "complete confidence that the US will use all of its capabilities, including nuclear, to fulfil its obligations under the Japan-US security treaty". Trump is expected to demand that both Tokyo and Seoul pay far more for the American troops stationed on their soil, threatening withdrawal if his terms are not met. Trump might become less demanding of Japan in the near term if Washington finds itself short of allies. "We have been supporting the whole world," Trump said last week, charging Europe with "ripping off" the US on trade and security. "We were supporting Nato. We were paying the bills for other countries." (Source: MSN - U.S./ South China Morning Post)

10/3/2025  The Trump administration is boosting a powerful force in global affairs: anti-Americanism. Canadians have taken to booing the American national anthem and Panamanians to burning US flags. The British tabloids have tarred and feathered Vice President Vance for insulting British troops. A carnival float in Dusseldorf, Germany, displayed giant puppets of Trump and his Russian counterpart, Putin, shaking hands while squeezing Zelenskiy between them into a bloodied pulp. A sign on the float read “Hitler-Stalin Pact 2.0.” Back at home, the Washington Post has published a guide on how to navigate hostility abroad (“dress neutrally, not patriotically”). Trump embodies critics of the US have always warned about. Yankee arrogance? He and Vance, in the Oval Office. Yankee imperialism? Trump will take over Greenland. Yankee incompetence? Tariffs destabilizing global stock markets, downgrading his own economy. A YouGov poll published March 4 shows positive feelings toward the US have fallen since Trump was elected. The smallest decline (from 48 to 42) is in Italy. The biggest (from 48 to 20) is in Denmark. The mass deportation of migrants starts and the tariffs take an increasing toll on the global economy. Living with America is like rooming with badly behaved teenagers who demand constant attention and think they have solved the mysteries of the universe. Before Trump won the election - wokery - has infuriated people on the right and center with its weaponization of cultural tensions. Its social media sites - particularly Facebook and X - are increasingly seen as agents of division and distraction rather than, creators of a global village. Champions of the US have traditionally defended the nation (and excused its failures) on three grounds: that, as the world’s greatest power, the US provides stability and security; as the world’s leading liberal democracy. The US is becoming a source of global instability, swinging between extremes (President Bush’s crusading democracy promotion to Trump’s isolationism). Under Trump, the US is groveling to the world’s biggest enemy of liberal democracy, Putin. What can pro-Americans fight for today? Nobody outside the US embraces its tariffs. Nobody outside the axis of autocracy backs Trump’s strongman-first foreign policy. Anti-Americanism sentiment is already eroding the domestic support of populist politicians who have aligned themselves with him. Farage’s closeness to Trump could prove to be an electoral problem for Reform. The Canadian Conservative Party, which has enjoyed a massive lead in the polls over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals for two years, has seen its advantage evaporate since January. Western powers are forging alliances that exclude (or at least don’t include) the US. The European Union, particularly in Germany, is beginning to take its military destiny in its hands. The EU has struck trade deals with Latin America and Malaysia and has made various side accords with Canada and China. A number of its allies regard the US, as ’a rogue superpower, a mercantilist behemoth determined to squeeze every ounce of wealth and power from the rest of the world.’ What used to be called nonaligned powers are queuing up to join the BRICS group of emerging-market nations. The genie of anti-Americanism is now not only out of the bottle but doing immense damage. It will take many years to regain the trust of the free world. (Source: MSN / 'The Economic Times – India')
Note: Indian (?) moodmongering

March 10, 2025  Ukraine must cede territory in any peace deal, Rubio says. The secretary of state, heading to talks with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, said future talks with Moscow will be needed to determine what Russia is willing to give up to end the war. (Source: The New York Times - U.S.)

10 Mar 2025  SpaceX CEO insists he will not cut Ukraine’s access to internet service despite his disagreements with Kyiv. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski suggested that Poland, which pays Ukraine’s Starlink costs, might have to seek alternative suppliers if Musk’s satellite network proves to be an 'unreliable provider'. He made the comments after Musk said the Ukrainian army’s “entire front line would collapse” without Starlink. Musk later lashed out at Sikorski himself, posting: “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink.” Poland funded about half of the estimated 42,000 Starlink terminals operating in Ukraine at the cost of about $50 million per year. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

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Europe

Hungary
March 8, 2025  Hungary and the United States will agree on an economic cooperation package. According to Reuters, Hungarian PM Orbán stated that the economic package would expand the existing political alliance between the two countries. PM Orbán, who has supported U.S. President Trump since his previous term, said that such an economic agreement would help Hungary even if a trade war between the U.S. and the European Union breaks out. Last week, President Trump stated that his administration would soon announce a 25 percent tariff on goods from the EU, which he described as having been created to “screw” the United States. “Hungary will suffer losses [in a trade war], just like all European Union member states. We do not yet know its extent, but we can be sure that it will happen,” Orbán said at the annual conference of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. He added that Hungary has a good chance of reaching an agreement with Washington and that the package may restrict or entirely negate the effect of a possible trade war within Hungary. Hungarian officials are currently negotiating with the U.S. to renew a tax treaty that the previous American administration terminated, according to Orbán. ’Hungary is isolated,’ President of the European Council Costa declared in 6 March, at the end of a special EU summit that saw Viktor Orbán voting against the approval of joint conclusions in support of Ukraine, forcing leaders to go ahead with an attached „extract” endorsed by 26. We respect Hungary’s position, but it’s one out of 27. And 26 are more than one, Costa said after an EU summit focused on Ukraine’s future. The concluding text of the summit speaks about ’peace through strength,’ military assistance and security guarantees for Kyiv, all of which Orbán opposed. Before the summit, the Hungarian prime minister publicly signaled his intention to veto the proposed language, arguing that it ran contrary to U.S. President Trump’s deal-making initiative, to which Orbán has firmly aligned himself. After disengaging Hungary from the EU Council decision to continue offering military assistance to Ukraine, Orbán believes that the possible tax treaty with the U.S. will help Hungary “offset, at a national economic level, the losses caused by U.S. tariffs imposed on Europe and will provide compensation both in monetary and real economic terms.” (Source: Greek Reporter – the international Greek news network)
By Chrysopoulos

Asia

Gaza
March 8, 2025  After receiving pushback from the U.S. and Israel, the $53 billion Arab-backed Egyptian plan for the reconstruction of Gaza has garnered support from France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. The plan was meant to counter Trump's Gaza takeover proposal. 'The plan shows a realistic path to the reconstruction of Gaza and promises – if implemented – swift and sustainable improvement of the catastrophic living conditions for the Palestinians living in Gaza,' the foreign ministers wrote in a joint statement. The foreign ministers called for a post-war plan based on'"a solid political and security framework,' but reiterated the need for Hamas to not be able to govern Gaza. Additionally, the European leaders said that they are supportive of the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) 'central role' in a post-war Gaza and 'the implementation of its reform agenda.' /Photo/ (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

North America

Caribbean

Mar 09, 2025  The past few decades have seen a dramatic increase in Chinese economic and diplomatic influence across the the Caribbean, with one foreign policy expert telling that Beijing wants to "turn the Caribbean Sea into a Chinese lake." Chinese trade with the Caribbean went from $1 billion in 2002 to $8 billion in 2019, when $6.1 billion worth of Chinese exports and $1.9 billion in imports were recorded. While individual Chinese companies primarily have commercial objectives, Beijing is keeping a close eye on the wider strategic picture. As of 2022, ten Caribbean countries had signed up to Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative: Cuba, Suriname, Guyana, Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada, Barbados, Dominica, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominican Republic and Jamaica. China is funding major Chinese projects, including the development of a $3 billion deep-water port on Grand Bahama, just 55 miles from the U.S. mainland, a $600 million investment to improve the Dominican Republic's electricity grid, $2.1 billion worth of projects in Jamaica and $773 million in Suriname. "On a per capita basis, there is no other part of the Western Hemisphere that receives the quantity of trips for its police and defense force officials two Chinese military institutions, gifts of police and military vehicles and material, visits by Chinese hospital ships, and other [People's Liberation Army] military diplomacy as does the Caribbean," Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute who specializes in the relationship between Latin America and China, said. "The Trump administration could easily employ a carrot and stick approach to roll this back however, by offering trade and investment inducements of its own while making clear the consequences of ignoring a generous offer", Mendoza, executive director of the London-based security think tank the Henry Jackson Society, told. Five of the 12 countries in the world that were recognizing Taiwan, were in the Caribbean and Central America. In a victory for the U.S. president earlier this month, CK Hutchison Holdings, the Hong Kong-based company that owned two ports by the Panama Canal, announced it had sold them to an American BlackRock-led acquisition in a $23 billion deal. China and Russia've got a number of dumpster fires basically on the doorstep of the United States. Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and of course Haiti now. What they're counting on Latin America for is being able to lock down a theater of operations. We're talking about reducing the operations of the United States in the theater of conflict. The Biden administration requested $2.2 billion in USAID assistance for the Caribbean and Latin America in the 2025 fiscal year, so these cuts could significantly impact U.S. influence in the region. (Source: Newsweek - U.S.)

United States
Sat March 8, 2025  "Vance is a fascinating character. He rose from a hard scrabble upbringing in the Appalachians to the Ivy League. He’s exceedingly smart – one reason why his political positioning is often taken as evidence of nefarious calculation. Vance, who briefly served as an Ohio senator, despises traditional media and Washington elites so he’s a natural fit with Trump’s populism. He’s also a US Marine veteran – so he ought to know better about the contribution of US allies to the war on terror. And he got rich in Silicon Valley and has an in with the big tech barons who’ve moved sharply to the right and embraced Trump in his second term. The vice president made his name with “Hillbilly Elegy” a memoir about his childhood in deprived areas of Ohio and Kentucky. The 2016 book explained how deindustrialization fostered poverty and drug addiction and an eventual political backlash against globalized free trade policies. It became a kind of handbook for understanding Trump supporters in his first term. Given that background, it’s not surprising that Vance produced the campaign’s most eloquent arguments for an America First economic policy. At 40, he’s a potential heir to Trump – although the president amusingly refused to anoint him in a recent interview, unwilling to think about ceding his throne so soon. Vance is the epitome of what many Europeans disdain about America. An isolationist, he sees no vital national interest in Ukraine. His bluntness and hint of smugness irk many foreigners, as does his support for Europe’s far-right – including Germany’s extremist AfD. A day before confronting Zelensky in the Oval Office, he rebuked Keir Starmer over free speech in the UK – although the British PM shut him down. Since Vance is young, ambitious, ideological, and has an apparent chip on his shoulder about establishment intellectuals, there’s one vice president he does remind us of Nixon. When Nixon joined Eisenhower’s ticket in 1952, he’d spent about enough time in the Senate to have a cup of coffee – just like Vance. And like his 21st century successor, he was a new breed of GOP ideologue – while the current VP upbraids “woke” liberals, Nixon hounded supposed communists living in the United States. And like Vance, Nixon had his eye on higher things. His ambitions and penchant for the dark side of politics sometimes caused tensions with his more experienced boss – a possible omen for the relationship between Trump and Vance. Nixon used his eight-year vice presidency as a crash course in global affairs that was key to his success as a statesman after he finally won the big job in 1968. Vance however seems unlikely to emulate Nixon’s long global odysseys – he has political interests back home. (Source: CNN - U.S.)

(Saturday), 08 October 2024  The United States has told its allies that it does not plan to participate in military exercises in Europe, ’according to reports’. Trump’s pivot away from the bloc, would see America pull out of exercises beyond those already scheduled for this year. It means that Nato countries will be forced to plan exercises without the participation of the US military, the largest in the alliance. Yesterday, Mr Trump warned that the US may not defend Nato allies who do not meet the spending target. “When I came to Nato, when I first had my first meeting, I noticed that people weren’t paying their bills at all, and I said I should wait till my second meeting”. “And I did. And I brought that up, and I said, ‘If you don’t pay your bills, we’re not going to participate. We’re not going to protect you.’ “And when I said that, as soon as they said that, it was amazing how the money came in, the money came in, and now they have money. But even now, it’s not enough. They should be paying more.’ The Trump administration is redrawing Nato engagement in a way that favours member countries with higher defence spending. The president is said to be considering prioritising military exercises with member countries that are spending the set percentage of GDP on their defence, officials told NBC. The Telegraph reported on yesterday that Mr Trump is also considering pulling US troops out of Germany and redeploying them to Eastern Europe. He is understood to be weighing up „withdrawing some 35,000 active personnel and moving them to Hungary’. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)
by Stringer, Deputy US Editor

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Europe

Hungary
(Friday), Mar 07, 2025  The EU cannot afford to finance Ukraine's military efforts as U.S. financial aid is no longer guaranteed, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán said today after the leaders of 26 EU countries signed a statement voicing support for Ukraine without Hungary. Orbán, who has refused to send weapons to Ukraine since the start of the war, and kept close relations with Moscow, said that instead of prolonging the war, Europe should support Trump's peace talks. European leaders yesterday backed plans to spend more on defence and continue to stand by Ukraine in a world upended by Trump's reversal of U.S. policies. The Hungarian PM said the way the EU wants to support Ukraine now, while also boosting Europe's own defence spending, would "ruin Europe." Orbán, an ally of U.S. President Trump, who is also cultivating ties with Moscow, told state radio that his government would launch a domestic, state-funded "public consultation" on Ukraine's European Union accession in the coming weeks. "If now the US quits (financing the war)...why would the other 26 member states have a chance to take this war to the end?," Orbán told state radio. "Today it appears that I have vetoed. But within weeks they will come back and it will turn out that there is no money for these goals." Trump has said Europe must take more responsibility for its security. Yesterday he cast doubt on his willingness to defend Washington's NATO allies, saying that he would not do so if they are not paying enough for their own defense. His decision to shift from staunch U.S. support for Ukraine to a more conciliatory stance towards Moscow has deeply alarmed Europeans who see Russia ’as the biggest threat’. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom / The Straits Times - Singapore)

07/03/2025  In a post shared on X, shortly after the Trump-Zelenskyy Oval Office meeting, Orbán, the leader of the ruling Fidesz party wrote, "strong men make peace, weak men make war," praising Trump for standing "bravely for peace". Orbán has long been one of the EU's most vocal critics. Friendly with Russian President Putin, the Hungarian premier has consistently blocked European military support packages for Ukraine, claiming that Western support prolongs Russia's war. The Hungarian prime minister has urged the EU to follow in Trump’s footsteps and open up direct talks with the Kremlin while blocking the approval of joint conclusions supporting Ukraine at a summit held by Europe's 27 leaders in Brussels yesterday. (Source: Euronews, based in Lyon, France)

Poland
(7 March 2025)  Poland announces military training plan for all men. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

European Union
(Friday), 07.03.2025  The EU leaders had a videoconference meeting with leaders of Türkiye, the UK, Canada, Norway, and Iceland -- states that are a member of NATO and not of the EU, said Costa, the president of the European Council yesterday. They debriefed the leaders on the decisions taken at the European Council yesteray night and their meeting with Zelenskyy. During the meeting, Costa focused on Ukraine, while der Leyen on defense issues. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Russia
Friday 07 March 2025  If someone got their passport in August 2022 or earlier, they are most certainly pro-Russian. Around 3.5 million Russian passports have been issued to 'Ukrainians', Moscow’s interior minister Kolokoltsev said. This means around 700,000 have been issued since March 2024, when 2.8 million had been handed out. A Russian law stipulated that anyone in the occupied territories who did not have a Russian passport by 1 July 2024 was subject to imprisonment as a “foreign citizen”. Incentives are also offered as part of the passport, including a stipend to leave the occupied territory and move to Russia, pensions for retirees, humanitarian aid, and money for new parents who have children with Russian birth certificates. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Russian citizenship was automatically given to permanent residents of the peninsula and those who refused lost rights to jobs, healthcare and property. Hundreds of properties deemed “abandoned” were seized by the Russian government after officials said a Russian passport was needed to prove property ownership. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

March 7, 2025, Friday  On March 6, Russian President Putin reiterated that any peace terms must provide long-term security guarantees for Russia. Putin also stressed that Russia would not cede any territory in future negotiations. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Moscow would view any peacekeeping presence as NATO’s direct involvement in the war. Spokesperson Zakharova reinforced this stance, rejecting any proposals that could allow Ukraine time to regroup on the battlefield. Lavrov also claimed that Russia’s demands include halting NATO’s expansion and obtaining security assurances, suggesting that U.S. President Trump understands these concerns while European nations do not. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

Asia

China
Mar 07, 2025  (Trump's) 'apparent readiness to throw NATO and Europe under the bus in order to placate Putin for reasons that are still not well understood could seriously trigger a dark age of chaos'. (Source: China - US Focus, published by the China-United States Exchange Foundation, based in Hong Kong)
'by Cunningham, an independent Scholar' 

Syria
March 7, 2025  More than 70 people were killed, and several others injured after forces loyal to ousted Syrian President Assad clashed with government personnel in country's coastal region, a stronghold of the Alawite minority community. According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, the victims comprised 35 government personnel, 32 Assad loyalists and four civilians. A curfew has been imposed in the port cities of Latakia, Tartous and Homs, where the deadly clashes broke out yesterday after Syrian government forces were ambushed during a security operation. The militants took control of military areas, especially the Istamo and Qardaha airports, and fortified themselves in the Latakia mountains. (Source: India Today)

North America

United States
07 March 2025 6:00pm GMT  Trump considers pulling troops out of Germany. 'It is understood that the president is considering redeploying personnel to Hungary, which has maintained a close relationship with Russia'. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)
by Stringer, Deputy US Editor

March 7, 2025  Pentagon is placing probationary employees on leave in advance of mass firings The terminations are expected within weeks under plans to fire nearly one-tenth of DOD’s 55,000 “probies.” (Source: Defense One - U.S.)

7 March 2025 "Most Americans outside the rarefied corridors of power don’t feel particularly threatened by Russia’s regional aggressions, and don’t particularly care what territorial accommodations Ukraine might need to make to preserve its sovereignty. They have however noticed that China has ransacked the American industrial base, and that their past leaders connived in the destruction. If extreme measures like tariffs are needed to revive American manufacturing, then so be it. Their president represents American interests, and not necessarily yours. Unlike your EU, which assiduously guards its rule makers from democratic interference, Americans can overrule their elites at the ballot box and install new leaders with new plans. That you decry this recently demonstrated capacity as a threat to democracy reveals your true view of the institution: a tame beast safely caged and posing no real threat to the likes of der Leyen. EU foreign minister Kallas may believe she can dismiss Trump as the leader of the free world, but a reasonably well-informed American may ask whether her Europe is quite so free as to constitute a community of shared values with the United States. Upstart populist parties and their supporters are excluded from power and surveilled by state security. Elections and referendums resulting in a 'wrong' result are overturned or rerun until a 'correct' vote is achieved. Social media companies can be beggared with multi-billion euro fines for failing to censor free speech. An online jest at a politician’s expense may warrant a police visit. Decades ago, Kundera told Europeans that freedom was the right to make a joke about your leaders. Green party leader Habeck, who has filed hundreds of legal actions against his fellow Germans for ridiculing him online, prefers state coercion to personal embarrassment. "In just a few weeks, President Trump has done more to shift the defence burden onto our allies than any prior US president. Incoming Chancellor Merz may believe he is striking a courageous pose by proclaiming the end of Europe’s security dependence, but this is exactly what Trump and many Americans want from our wealthy German ally. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)
by Pfefferkorn

Mar 7 2025  A TOP secret US spaceship has touched down on Earth after spending 434 days in orbit. The X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle-7 landed at the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California where it was met by hazmat-clad ground crew. The X-37B completed a never-before-seen aerobraking manoeuvre to change its orbit. Aerobraking involves making several passes into the Earth's atmosphere which causes drag to rapidly change the craft's orbit. In doing so, the spaceship expends minimal fuel, making it temporarily invisible to other nations who could be tracking it. The X-37B is a "dynamic unmanned spaceplane", meaning it needs no crew to operate. The shuttle is reusable, making it ideal for testing. It's first visit to space was in 2011. (Source: The U.S.Sun)

07/03/2025  US space company Maxar Technologies today blocked access to its US government-funded satellite images for Ukraine, after the administration of US President Trump stopped sharing information with Kyiv. (Source: DW - Germany)

March 7, 2025  The Federal Aviation Administration halted flights at multiple Florida airports after a SpaceX Starship rocket exploded yesterday night. The eighth Starship test flight attempt also ended in the craft’s disintegration. (Source: Madiaite - U.S.)

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Europe

Hungary
06.03.2025  Hungary is on the same page with other European countries on the need to strengthen defense capabilities, the prime minister said today. “My meetings in France confirmed that while we may disagree on the modalities of peace, we do agree that we must strengthen the defense capabilities of European nations,” Viktor Orbán said on X following his yesterday meeting with French President Macron in Paris, ahead of today's European Council’s special summit on European defense and Ukraine in Brussels. Orbán underscored that efforts for defense reinforcement should empower member states rather than Brussels bureaucrats. “We will continue to be in agreement that we do not want to create a super-state in Brussels, and we do not want to subordinate our independence and sovereignty to anyone, including Brussels,” he added. Orbán also assured that Franco-Hungarian relations are in good shape with an exceptionally close cooperation both politically and economically. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

France
06/03/2025 - 05:42  Macron said that a meeting of army chiefs of staff of European nations willing to be involved in possibly deploying European forces is to be held in Paris next week to make sure Russia would not invade Ukraine 'again' after a potential peace deal is signed. Those forces 'would not fight on the front line, but they would be there', once peace has been signed, to guarantee that it is fully respected, he said. (Source: France 24)

European Council
Thu, 06 Mar, 2025  Facing the possibility of a 'fundamental disengagement' under US President Trump, European Union leaders opened a day of emergency summit talks at the European Council building in Brussels today, to beef up their own military defences and make sure Ukraine will still be properly protected by its allies. Today’s summit is unlikely to produce immediate decisions on spending for Ukraine or its own defences. Another EU summit where the real contours of decisions would be 'much clearer' is set for March 20-21. (Source: Irish Examiner - Ireland)

Moldova
6 March 2025  EU-friendly Moldova’s foreign ministry said it had in no way violated the 1960 Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations and has rejected allegations by Russia that it had violated diplomatic conventions by declining to formally accept the credentials of Moscow’s ambassador. On March 5, the ex-Soviet State’s pro-European Union President Sandu made it clear she had not invited the ambassador to obtain his accreditation because the Kremlin had been “disrespectful” to Moldova. The Russian ministry said its ambassador, Ozerov, had not been asked to present his credentials to Sandu despite being in Moldova since last October. (Source: Brussels Signal, based in Brussels, Belgium / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Russia
06.03.2025  Putin signed a decree appointing Darchiev as Russia’s ambassador to US. Darchiev’s predecessor Antonov completed his mission in Washington, DC in October 2024. A former researcher specializing in North American studies, focusing on both Canada and the US, Darchiev, 64, comes from an academic background. Fluent in English and French, Darchiev has been serving in Russia’s diplomatic corps since 1992, some 10 years in the US and Canada at the Russian Embassy. From Oct. 24, 2014, to Jan. 11, 2021, he served as Russia's Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Canada. He then returned to Moscow to assume the role of the director of the North Atlantic Department, where he served until his recent appointment. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

06/03/2025  About Moscow’s ’threat to Europe’. Russia has responded with scorn to French President Macron’s televised speech - in which he warned that Russia poses a direct threat to France and Europe - as exaggerated fearmongering and accused him of fuelling unnecessary tensions. Kosachev, a senior Russian senator, claimed Macron had fundamentally misinterpreted Russia’s actions, insisting that the French president was misleading his own citizens and allies. arguing that Moscow was merely reacting to NATO expansion rather than pursuing aggression. While President Putin continues to dismiss NATO’s concerns, Ukraine and its allies argue that Russia’s actions amount to an imperial land grab. Kremlin-aligned commentators accused the French leader of distorting reality, with former Kremlin adviser Markov claiming Macron was engaging in slander and military propaganda against Russia. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Zakharova, ridiculed Macron’s assertion that France has the most effective military in Europe, suggesting that he might want to put that claim to the test. Former Russian President Medvedev mockingly referred to Macron as Micron and predicted his political downfall by 2027. Macron’s speech, delivered in a national address on yesterday evening, framed Russia as a clear and present danger to Europe. He described the war in Ukraine as a global conflict and even floated the idea of extending France’s nuclear deterrent to European allies – an idea that has sparked considerable debate. Macron directly stated: Russia has already turned the Ukrainian conflict into a global conflict. ’President Putin's Russia violates our borders to assassinate opponents and manipulates elections in Romania and Moldova. It is organising digital attacks on our hospitals to stop them operating. Russia is trying to manipulate our opinions with lies spread on social networks’. His remarks come at a time when European support for Ukraine is facing growing uncertainty. Divisions within the European Union over military aid and financial commitments have further complicated the situation. As European leaders gather in Brussels for a summit on supporting Ukraine, they are confronted with the challenge of maintaining a united front. With Russian forces advancing on the battlefield and Western backing wavering, the EU’s discussions are centered ’on reinforcing Ukraine’s defences and ensuring that Europe does not falter in its commitments’. (Source: rfi – France)

03/06/2025  The new balance between the USA, China and Russia. Russian observers say change of guard in Washington has meant China is no longer able to benefit from the conflict in Ukraine, but has been reduced to the role of onlooker. On 27 February, Lin, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, observed that ‘relations between China and Russia will continue to develop steadily, despite changes in the international situation’. These statements came the day after the US Secretary of State, Rubio, declared in an interview that Trump intended to modify relations with China, to ‘prevent any form of dependence’ on it. On 28 February, the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Shoigu, immediately travelled to Beijing to meet with President Xi and senior Chinese foreign policy officials to ensure that Moscow adheres to China's positions on all regional and international issues. He himself emphasised that ‘the meeting was arranged at very short notice’, basically admitting that he had been ‘summoned’ by the Chinese leadership. Does Beijing call Moscow to account for its new relationship with Trump? Sharipzhanov, a commentator for Radio Svoboda, wonders if the Chinese leadership believes that ‘there is an attempt by Washington to provoke a schism in Russian-Chinese relations’, and to what extent the impromptu summit is due to the irritation of Xi and Foreign Minister Wan. Another worrying sign for Beijing was the vote at the UN on 26th February, when the USA refused to approve the resolution condemning Russia's aggression, assigning Europe the responsibility for security in Ukraine, leading various European leaders to declare the need to become independent from the USA in order to look after the whole of the European Union. According to Sharipzhanov, this ‘should be considered by China as a positive factor’, with Moscow's diplomatic successes in resolving the conflict in Ukraine, something that the leadership in Beijing had been hoping for since the beginning of the Russian invasion. In reality, in this way "China loses the opportunity to calmly observe the conflict's exhaustion, remaining on the sidelines", considering the war in Ukraine a test of the West's resilience. Many observers have expressed the opinion that the confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine makes China the only real beneficiary of the whole situation, and that ’Beijing only supports Moscow with words, while offering some (very cautious) support in circumventing sanctions and in the production of armaments’. The war weakens Russia and allows China ’to expand its influence over Siberia, the Far East’ and all of Central Asia, and makes the West less capable of defending Taiwan from Beijing's ambitions. Now the U-turn by the Trump administration radically changes the situation. With the possible end of the Ukrainian conflict, allowing Moscow to come out of international isolation, thanks to Washington's support - comments Sharipzhanov - ’the descendants of the great Confucius lose the chance to remain sitting on the branch, like the wise monkey waiting for the end of the fight between the two tigers, in which one of the two destroys the other in a deadly embrace, but remains so weakened that the monkey only has to jump on it to achieve full victory’. ’China has not forgotten a similar circumstance that brought ideological enemies closer together: in 1971 Kissinger arrived in Beijing to prepare for Nixon's visit the following year, which allowed China to come out of the closet on the international markets’ and begin the phase of its grandiose economic development, a circumstance that is also being recalled these days by Rubio. Kissinger himself later admitted that the turning towards China played an important role in weakening the USSR, and many are wondering if today the opposite effect might not occur, encouraging Moscow ’to hit back at China’. (Source: AsiaNews, an official press agency of the Catholic Church's Pontifical Institute for Foreign Missions (PIME). headquartered in Rome, Italy)
by Rozanskij

Ukraine
March 6, 2025, Thursday  Several key allies of U.S. President Trump have held confidential talks with Ukrainian opposition leaders, including former Prime Minister Tymoshenko and members of the party of former President Poroshenko. These discussions have centered around the possibility of holding presidential elections in Ukraine despite the ongoing martial law. Trump's allies are reportedly confident that Zelensky would lose any election due to growing public discontent over the prolonged conflict and widespread corruption. Zelensky has faced declining approval ratings. Recent polls suggest that he remains 'the most popular' figure in Ukraine, still holds a commanding lead, with 44% of support, while his main rivals - Zaluzhnyi and Poroshenko - are far behind, with Poroshenko securing only 10% and Tymoshenko a mere 5.7%. Both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko have publicly opposed holding elections before the war ends. Tymoshenko has been trying to recruit lawmakers from rival parties to form a new parliamentary majority, banking on the assumption that elections will soon be inevitable. "A growing portion of the population is advocating for peace talks". A majority are more focused on negotiating an end to the conflict, even if it requires significant concessions from Ukraine. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

United Kingdom
March 6, 2025  Zaluzhny, Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom accused the United States under Trump of ’destroying’ the world order. Today, at the Chatham House think tank Zaluzhny - a former Ukrainian general sent to represent Kyiv in London last year - said actions by the White House under U.S. President Trump had called into question the unity of the whole Western world, as he attacked U.S. handling of the war in Ukraine. ’We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the U.S. is finally destroying this order.’ He warned that Trump's negotiations with Russia for an end to the war were a sign the White House was making "steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway." The ambassador suggested Moscow's next target ’could be Europe.’ The Ukrainian government appeared to distance itself from Zaluzhny's remarks today afternoon. Its foreign ministry responded that the opinion voiced by the Ukrainian ambassador had been his personal position. Zaluzhny previously served as the military's commander-in-chief and was widely praised for repelling Russia's full-scale invasion of February 2022. He was dismissed early last year after Kyiv's counter-offensive stalled, and Zaluzhny became the ambassador to the U.K. in July. (Source: Politico - Headquarters Arlington County, U.S., owned by a German media company)

March 6, 2025  The prime minister sees the U.K.'s national security as a primary function of his role as prime minister, Starmer’s spokesperson said today. Defense analysts in London called into question the future of the U.K.’s £3 billion-a-year Trident program, which relies heavily on U.S. cooperation to keep running. They are urging the British government to make contingency plans for its aging fleet of jointly-maintained nuclear-armed - Trident-armed - Vanguard submarines. Britain has operational control over its Trident nuclear arsenal. But the missiles, loaded on to four nuclear submarines, are U.S. manufactured, and jointly-maintained by the U.K. and U.S. They are subject to periodic refurbishing by the U.S.. Britain is already working on a replacement for the aging fleet with MPs in 2016 voting to renew the program and press ahead with newer so-called “Dreadnought”-class ballistic missile submarines over the coming years. Defense suppliers Rolls Royce and BAE Systems are working on that project. (Source: Politico)

6 March 2025  ’Contrary to the widespread view, Europeans have a lot of cards they can play. They have, for a start, $200bn of frozen Russian reserves that could be seized immediately and transferred to Ukraine. That sum would go a long way into building the best drone industrial complex in history, something Ukraine is already close to possessing'.    Eutelsat, a European rival to Musk’s satellite communications operator Starlink, said on 4 March that it was actively collaborating with European institutions and business partners, stressing that it had equipment that could enable the swift deployment of additional user terminals for critical missions and infrastructure even if Musk was to disable Starlink in Ukraine.     Also on 4 March, Merz announced a deal with Germany’s Social Democratic Party, his likely coalition partner, 'to exempt defence spending above 1 per cent of GDP from the debt brake' that caps government borrowing. He pledged that Germany would do ’whatever it takes’ to fend off ’threats to freedom and peace’ in Europe. The announcement sent German borrowing costs soaring. The mere suggestion that Europe will need to rearm itself has already given a significant boost to the ailing European economy. European stocks are leading the global markets this year, with double-digit gains of over 11 per cent. So far in 2025, the seven stocks that make up the Aerospace and Defence Index in Europe have gained over 20 per cent, leaving America’s Magnificent Seven stocks - that is, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla - behind. If mere speculation about European rearmament has done this, imagine the effect of a new ’revolution in military affairs made in Europe and Ukraine’, ’a deliberate and coordinated effort to invest in the new generation of weapons systems’. (Source: New Statesman - a British news magazine, published in London, United Kingdom)

Asia

Taiwan
Mar 6, 2025, 10:55 AM  Taiwan’s Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant in Hengchun, Pingtung County, was reported to be releasing large plumes of thick black smoke around 11:30 a.m. local time today. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran)

North America

United States
March 6, 2025 U.S.  Secretary of State Rubio in an interview with Fox News on yesterday said the United States, by helping Ukraine is engaged in a “proxy war” with Russia. “It’s been very clear from the beginning that President Trump views this as a protracted, stalemated conflict. And frankly, it’s a proxy war between nuclear powers – the United States, helping Ukraine, and Russia – and it needs to come to an end,” Rubio said. „No one has any idea or any plan” on how to end the war, Rubio added. According to him, the Russian side has “made some progress,” but there are no signs that Russia is winning, so the conflict has reached a stalemate. “All the President is trying to do here is figure out if there’s a path towards peace. We have to engage both sides, the Russians and the Ukrainians,” Rubio said. (Source: Meduza - based in Riga, Latvia / U.S. State Department)

Thu 6 March 2025  U.S. President Trump's administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation. The move is expected as soon as April. White House press secretary Leavitt pushed back on the Reuters report in a post on X, saying "no decision has been made at this time." U.S. Department of Homeland Security spokesperson McLaughlin said yesterday that the department had no new announcements. The planned rollback of protections is part of a broader Trump administration effort to strip legal status from more than 1.8 million migrants allowed to enter the U.S. A Trump executive order issued on January 20 called for DHS to "terminate all categorical parole programs." These programs covered more than 70,000 Afghans escaping the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. The administration plans to revoke parole for about 530,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans as soon as this month. An additional 1 million migrants scheduled a time to cross at a legal border crossing via an app known as CBP One. Thousands more had access to smaller programs, including family reunification parole for certain people in Latin America and the Caribbean. Migrants stripped of their parole status could face fast-track deportation proceedings. Immigrants who cross the border illegally can be put into the fast-track deportation process known as expedited removal, for two years after they enter. But for those who entered through legal ports of entry without being officially "admitted" to the U.S. - as with those on parole - there is no time limit on their rapid removal. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

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Europe

France
(Wednesday), 05/03/2025  In a primetime speech today, French President Macron said France 'will head towards a single goal, one of peace and freedom, true to its history, true of its own principles'. And he called for a major European rearmament. Macron said he will confer with European allies 'on the idea of using France's nuclear deterrent to protect' the continent 'in the face of threats from Russia'. 'Our nuclear deterrence protects us, French 'from Asia'. 'Russia has become now and will continue to be a threat for France and for Europe'. 'We want to ensure that that deterrence applies to all European allies, whatever to be', he said. 'The future of Europe is not going to be decided by Russia, or by Washington'. 'We have Germany, Poland, Denmark, the Baltic states and numerous partners have also announced that they are going to increase military spending. ''France has a unique role to play. We have the most effective army in all of Europe', 'a nuclear capacity'. He said that they have to make 'new budgetary decisions, additional spending which are now essential.' (Source: France 24)

Wed, 05 Mar, 2025  French President Macron has said he will confer with European allies on the idea of using France’s nuclear deterrent' to protect the continent in the face of threats from Russia'. EU leaders are set to address the issue of nuclear deterrence, among other issues, during a special summit in Brussels tomorrow, focusing on support for Ukraine and European defence. Macron said the use of France’s nuclear weapons would remain only in the hands of the French president. (Source: Irish Examiner - Ireland)

European Commission
(Wednesday), 05/03/2025  Yesterday, der Leyen said the EU plans to bolster Europe’s defence and military spending by activating a mechanism to mobilise €800 billion in special funds, stating that Europe is 'in an era of rearmament' and is 'ready to massively boost its defence spending.' This announcement came after Washington suspended all military aid to Ukraine on Monday. The commission calls for member states to increase their defence spending by 1.5% of GDP on average, unlocking €650 billion over the next four years. It has also proposed extending the €150 billion in loans. The proposal is yet to be discussed at a summit attended by the 27 national leaders in Brussels tomorrow. Germany faces constraints on fiscal spending due to the “debt break” law enacted in 2009, which limits the government budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP. France and Italy may struggle to boost their spending due to limited fiscal capacity. The European Investment Bank is set to propose expanding its mandate to finance projects dedicated to military use. The bank is currently only permitted to fund projects with both civilian and military applications. (Source: Euronews, headquarters Lyon, France)

European Council
05 March 2025  Preparations for emergency talks today between European Union leaders in Brussels were being dominated by Washington’s withdrawal of support to Ukraine. The bloc has agreed 'it must significantly step up defence spending as part of a wider European strategy to placate Mr Trump'. Hungary and Slovakia were successful in blocking leaders from making a political decision on a new support package for Ukraine, which would have supplied €20-30 billion in artillery shells, missiles and drones. The main thrust of discussions between leaders will be on what post-war security guarantees the EU’s 27 countries can offer Ukraine. The principal strategy on the table involves arming Ukraine as the first pillar of the security guarantees - strategy shared by a majority of member states. An official said it was premature to discuss possible troop deployments to Ukraine because there was no ceasefire or final peace settlement on the table. The senior EU official said that Costa, the president of the European Council, would brief non-EU allies, including Sir Keir, in a video conference after the summit, which will be attended by Mr Macron. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)

European Union
March 5, 2025  'Fortunately', Europe is on the verge of a “big bang” moment, which could unlock more than a trillion dollars in funding for European defense over the next decade. An emergency EU summit tomorrow will see European leaders take the first steps in their journey 'to save Ukraine and lead the free world'. If Putin judges that guarantees - and European troops - will only appear once the fighting stops, then he won’t stop fighting. 'A strong Ukrainian military, which cannot be defeated on the battlefield, is the only realistic impediment to Russia’s crude but effective attempts to dominate its near abroad using military force. 'NATO and EU leaders have also identified peace through Ukrainian strength as the best solution for keeping their own citizens safe. 'Europe has been the most generous, providing $138 billion (and committing another $120 billion), compared to $119 billion (and $4 billion) from the United States'. Europe has a plentiful supply of political goodwill toward Ukraine but lacks the fiscal and industrial capacity to make good on it. Ukraine now depends on the defense industry in Europe and elsewhere for two-thirds of its military aid. But current capacity is either low or nonexistent in key areas such as guided weapons, tanks, and aircraft. Meanwhile, the United States has the opposite problem: It can afford and produce much more, but the political desire to do so has disappeared under the new administration. This dramatic reversal in Washington’s policy leaves the burden of 'peace through Ukrainian strength' resting on Europe’s shoulders. Ukraine’s main backers are reaching the political and economic limits of what they can provide. The transatlantic security is no longer Washington’s foreign policy priority. The next NATO summit will take place in June in The Hague, the Netherlands. If every European member of NATO took that opportunity to raise defense spending from their current average of 2 percent to 3 percent - as at least four allies already did last year - it would raise nearly $200 billion. Germany alone could add $220 billion if it agrees on a new ’whatever it takes’ special fund for defense. If negotiations this year over the European Union’s next budget cycle (2028–2034) meet the target set by the bloc’s new defence commissioner, Kubilius, that could add $110 billion to EU defense spending (defense spending in the current cycle was only around $11 billion). If the European Commission is able to repurpose untapped Covid-19 recovery funds, it would make available up to $100 billion, while redirecting portions of the $50 billion EU “Cohesion Fund” - designed to help lower income member states through investment in environment and transport - could make several billion available for defense and security. If Europe agreed to liquidate Russia’s frozen assets, it could provide another $300 billion. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has urged: ’Let’s finance our aid for Ukraine from the Russian frozen assets.’ The original purpose of the London summit was to discuss the United Kingdom’s idea for a European “rearmament bank,” a joint fund to issue AAA-rated debt to finance increased defense spending across Europe. European defense’s big-bang moment could be worth well over a trillion dollars. Ahead of tomorrow’s meeting, der Leyen has already previewed some of the measures on the table as part of a package called “ReARM Europe.” These include relaxing the European Union’s fiscal rules on debt for defense spending, a loan program of up to €150 billion ($165 billion) backed by the European Union’s common budget, and reallocating some of the Cohesion Fund. These initial measures still require EU leaders to unanimously agree with them. The biggest threat comes from Hungary, although Budapest’s opposition appears to be narrowly focused on support to Ukraine rather than strengthening European defense writ large. Ukraine’s own defense industry already produces $30 billion a year in weapons. Ukraine is now the world’s largest manufacturer of military autonomous systems, able to make over 4.5 million drones per year. It plans to make 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 missiles this year. Ukraine already makes 2.5 million artillery and mortar rounds annually. In the last year, Ukraine’s production of artillery systems tripled while production of armored vehicles increased fivefold. Ukrainian Defence Minister Umerov explained that while capacity will reach $37 billion this year, available funding is only $18 billion. In 2024, Denmark became the first country to order weapons made in Ukraine for use by Ukrainian armed forces. To date, around $950 million worth of Ukrainian-made artillery and drones have been ordered by Denmark and delivered to Ukraine. In October, the Netherlands announced a plan to purchase around $440 million of drones from Ukraine, with a 50–50 production share. Last week Norway also committed to buy $312 million of drones and other military equipment from Ukrainian firms. Europe will continue to rely on U.S. companies for advanced air defense, combat aircraft, missile and long-range artillery systems, plus other technology. If Europe can generate a flood of new funding and transform its defense industry, "the only remaining question is what purpose would all this military power serve?" ’Deterrence and defense’. Through their urgent plan to ’rearm Europe,’ European leaders must find a way ’to unlock a trillion euros to fund large increases in defense spending and transform Europe’s industrial base’. One Wall Street Journal headline: “Trump, not Putin, forces Europe to get serious about defense.” After Friday’s shouting match in the Oval Office added more fuel to the fire, Kallas, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, declared: ’Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.’ The most important thing Europe can do for Ukraine and the free world is transform its ability to defend ’the continent from Russian aggression’. The consequences of the confrontation between Russia and the West are global. It is possible that Trump is betting that his unprecedented actions will provide the spark Europe needed to ignite its big bang transformation into a defense superpower. (Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington D.C., U.S.)
by Monaghan, a visiting fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Africa

Egypt
(5 March 2025)  Arab leaders have approved a reconstruction plan for Gaza, spearheaded by Egypt in collaboration with Palestine. The initiative, now an official Arab League proposal, rejects any forced displacement of Palestinians and outlines a structured path for rebuilding the war-torn enclave. The plan includes clearing debris, restoring essential services, and securing international funding through a trust overseen by the World Bank. The framework preserves Gaza’s legal status as part of a future Palestinian state alongside the West Bank. Egypt will host an international conference in cooperation with the United Nations to coordinate global support. (Source: Africanews, based in Lyon, France. Owner: Euronews)

Central America

Panama
03/05/2025  The Hong Kong company CK Hutchison Holding, which manages two ports in the Panama Canal, one on the Atlantic Ocean and one on the Pacific Ocean, has agreed to sell the majority of its shares to a group led by the US investment company BlackRock for 22.8 billion dollars. Founded by billionaire Li, the company is not owned by the Chinese government, but has controlled the ports since 1997. /Source: AsiaNews, an official press agency of the Catholic Church's Pontifical Institute for Foreign Missions (PIME). headquartered in Rome, Italy/

North America

United States
(Wednesday), 05/03/2025  Hungary's Foreign Minister Szijjártó yesterday met with US Secretary of State Rubio. According to a statement from the US State Department, "The Secretary underlined the urgency of ending the war in Ukraine and ensuring lasting peace and stability in the region." Szijjártó 's meeting with Rubio came as the Hungarian government threatened to oppose an EU bloc-wide accord or joint statement on Ukraine ahead of tomorrow's extraordinary summit dedicated to Ukraine and EU defence. In a ’Rearm Europe Plan’, EU Commission president der Leyen said yesterday that member states ’might raise as much as €800 billion to fund a significant defence increase’. Hungary, unlike the majority of European countries, has been a staunch critic of EU. Prime minister Viktor Orbán, has frequently criticised, and threatened to veto EU sanctions against Russia over its aggression but has ultimately always voted for them. On Sunday, some European leaders at a summit in London floated the idea of a ’coalition of the willing’ among member states that could send troops on the ground to Ukraine as a guarantee after a potential peace deal. Leaders of the UK, Canada, France, and other EU countries present at the summit also agreed to keep military aid flowing into Ukraine and to ensure any peace talks and agreements respect the country's sovereignty. Reacting to the summit, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán slammed the idea and berated the leaders, saying they wanted ’to continue with the war instead of opting for peace.’ (Source: Euronews, based in Lyon, France)

05/03/2025  The United States has "paused" intelligence sharing with Ukraine after a breakdown in relations between Kyiv and the White House, CIA director Ratcliffe said today. (Source: France 24)

05.03.25  Request to the Grok 3 (beta) version of the artificial intelligence bot on Musk’s platform, X: "Analyse Trump’s speech to US Congress". The AI turned in a surprisingly cogent analysis, complete with reference to the “campaign promise to dismantle the federal bureaucracy, though the execution has drawn criticism for incompetence”.     “Since I don’t have the full text of President Trump’s 2025 speech to the U.S. Congress (delivered on March 4, 2025), I’ll provide an analysis based on the available context from the search results and general insights into Trump’s rhetorical style and policy priorities. This speech, his first joint address to Congress in his second term, offers a window into his agenda and approach after returning to office on January 20, 2025. Below is an analysis structured around key themes, delivery, audience reception, and implications, drawing on the details provided.    Key Themes    Triumphalism and Electoral Mandate:     Trump opened his speech with a strong assertion of victory, claiming “America is back” and touting his November 5, 2024, election win as a “mandate like has not been seen in many decades.” He highlighted winning all seven swing states, securing 312 Electoral College votes, and a significant popular vote margin. This framing aligns with his tendency to emphasize personal and political success, positioning his administration as a transformative force. However, reports note his victory margin was narrower than he suggested, indicating possible exaggeration to bolster his narrative of overwhelming support.    Policy Priorities:.   Economy and Tariffs:    Trump pushed his reciprocal tariff policy, set to begin April 2, 2025, arguing it would incentivize domestic production (“If you don’t make your product in America, you will pay a tariff”). He also praised the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Musk, for uncovering “hundreds of billions” in fraud - though specifics remain vague. Critics highlight his minimal focus on inflation, a pressing public concern, suggesting a disconnect from voter priorities.   Immigration:    Border security featured prominently, with Trump claiming a drastic reduction in border crossings (8,326 in February 2025, per his Truth Social post). He urged Congress to fund deportations and wall construction, though his administration’s deportation pace has lagged behind Biden’s, contradicting his campaign promises of mass deportations.   Foreign Policy:    Trump addressed peace efforts in Ukraine and the Middle East, announcing a freeze on U.S. military aid to Ukraine after a contentious meeting with President Zelenskyy. He recited a letter from Zelenskyy indicating a willingness to negotiate, claiming “strong signals” from Russia for peace. His brief mention of foreign policy (a few minutes in a 100-minute speech) and provocative ideas - like welcoming Greenland into the U.S. - signal a disruptive approach to global alliances.    Cultural Flashpoints and Government Overhaul    Trump celebrated eliminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, declaring, “Our country will be woke no longer,” aligning with his base’s cultural priorities. He also touted firing tens of thousands of federal workers, framing it as part of a broader government “reshaping” via DOGE. This reflects his campaign promise to dismantle the federal bureaucracy, though the execution has drawn criticism for incompetence (e.g., firing critical experts and leaking classified data).    Rhetorical Style and Delivery. Length and Tone:     At 100 minutes (or 99, per some sources), Trump’s speech set a record for the longest presidential address to Congress, surpassing Clinton’s 2000 State of the Union. Its defiant, celebratory tone leaned into campaign rally energy rather than traditional unity-seeking rhetoric. He avoided detailed policy explanations, focusing on bold claims and viral moments, consistent with aides’ reported strategy to dominate post-speech media cycles.    Partisanship:     Trump directly needled Democrats, lamenting their lack of applause and accusing them of intransigence (“There is absolutely nothing I can say to make them happy”). This combative stance, paired with his comparison to George Washington, underscored a self-aggrandizing narrative over bipartisan appeal.    Performance:    Observers noted a shift from his more restrained 2017 address. Emboldened by his victory and unrestrained by impeachment or opposition control of Congress, Trump’s 2025 delivery was unscripted at times, reflecting his “weaves”—tangents that energize supporters but risk alienating others.    Audience Reception    Republicans:    GOP lawmakers cheered, chanting “USA” and offering standing ovations, particularly for tariff and border security proposals. House Speaker Johnson hailed it as a “triumphant return,” reflecting party alignment with Trump’s agenda.    Democrats:    The opposition was visibly hostile. Rep. Green’s ejection for interrupting, signs like “Save Medicaid” and “Protect Veterans,” and walkouts signaled deep dissent. Guests like fired federal workers underscored Democratic efforts to highlight policy fallout. Sen. Slotkin’s rebuttal criticized Trump’s recklessness, contrasting his approach with a call for responsible change.    Public:    Pre-speech polls (e.g., CNN’s 48% approval rating) suggest a polarized reception. Post-speech sentiment on X ranged from praise for his “Golden Age” vision to accusations of lies and exhaustion, indicating the address did little to broaden his base.    Implications    Legislative Push:     Trump’s calls for border funding and tax cut extensions test his influence over a slim Republican House majority and a Senate with differing priorities. His hands-off approach to budget reconciliation details leaves uncertainty about execution.    Polarization:    The speech entrenched divisions, offering no olive branch to Democrats or moderates. This risks gridlock if GOP unity falters, especially with contentious issues like tariffs sparking trade war fears.    Global Signal:    Freezing Ukraine aid and floating Greenland’s acquisition signal a retreat from traditional U.S. leadership, potentially emboldening adversaries and straining alliances.    Critical Assessment    Trump’s address was a defiant sales pitch, doubling down on campaign promises rather than adapting to governance realities. Its length and bombast catered to his base but ignored broader economic anxieties (e.g., inflation) and offered scant detail on implementation. While effective as theater - crafting moments like the Zelenskyy letter - it lacked the substance or outreach needed to unify a fractured nation or Congress. Historically, such speeches aim to set a tone; Trump’s set one of relentless disruption, for better or worse. For a deeper analysis, access to the full transcript would refine these observations. If you have specific aspects you’d like explored further (e.g., a particular policy or reaction), let me know! (Source: Telegraph India)

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Europe

Denmark
03.03.2025  Denmark today took over the rotational presidency of the UN Security Council from China for the month of March. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

European Union
01/03/2025  Macron said he is ready to 'open the discussion' on a possible future European nuclear deterrent, following a request from Germany's next leader Merz. 'Merz has stressed the need for the continent to move quickly to achieve independence from the United States on defence matters. However, not all European leaders were ready to jump to 'Ukraine's aid'. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, one of the closest partners of both Trump and Russian President Putin, thanked Trump for standing "bravely for peace". "Strong men make peace, weak men make war," Orbán posted on X. (Source: France 24)

Russia
2 March 2025  Yesterday, Russia unleashed Iskander-M missile attack 'to sink the Panama-flagged MSC LEVANTE F - reportedly Swiss-owned - container ship in Odesa carrying cargo of British weapons for Ukraine.' (Source: Daily Mail - United Kingdom)

Ukraine
March 2, 2025  Uniformed personnel, abducting a youth while he was out walking his dog on the morning of February 28. The soldiers had the Ukrainian insignia on their uniform and spoke Ukrainian. "Right now, you guys are going around and forcing conscripts to the front lines because you have manpower problems, US Vice President Vance had accused Zelensky of forcefully sending people to the frontlines to fight Russia. Those sharing the viral video claimed thousands of such footage that showed civilians being taken away to fight for Kyiv from across the country are available on the internet. /Video/ *. (Source: The Week, India)
* From X
Note: Since 7:11 PM 1 March 2025: 11 900 000 views

Ukrajna
2025. III. 2. "Józanabb elemzők szerint azért sem írhatta Ukrajna alá, hiába készítette elő az ásványi anyagok átadásáról történő megállapodást, mert igazából egy titkos paktum keretében ezt már rég odaígérte a briteknek akik a háború első perceitől igen benne vannak ebben a háborúban. (Forrás: Kossuth Rádió - Magyarország)

United Kingdom
(3 March 2025)  At the summit of some European leaders in London, Britain and France said they were working on 'a European-led solution' to the conflict. After the meeting, hosted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer yesterday, Zelensky said a deal to end the war between Ukraine and Russia was 'still very, very far away'. He added that he expected the US to continue backing Ukraine despite his own fraught relations with Trump. "This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelensky, and America will not put up with it for much longer! It is what I was saying, this guy doesn't want there to be Peace as long as he has America's backing," Mr Trump wrote on his Truth Social media network. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

(Sunday), 02/03/2025  Defence summit /video/ (Source: France 24)

March 1, 2025  Britain’s leader Keir Starmer voices support during meeting with Zelensky who arrived in London for 'crucial' talks, one day after his public argument with US President Trump over Russia’s war and peace talks. /Video/ (Source: CNN – U.S.)

Australia

Mar 02, 2025 Chinese warships circumnavigate Australian territory. Australia’s military spotted three Chinese warships on Feb 10 in the Arafura Sea, off the northern tip of Australia. The ships were just setting out on an unprecedented voyage that would bring them within 150 nautical miles of Sydney. On Feb 19 by the nation’s spy chief Burgess, without naming China, warned that Australia faces unprecedented interference and espionage threats. On the morning of March 1, the warships were 890km south-west of Adelaide. Deploying warships to the area with no apparent purpose beyond intimidation is out of the ordinary. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore)
by Pearlman, based in Sydney. He writes and explains matters on Australia and the Pacific to readers outside the Oceania region.

North America

United States
March 4, 2025  U.S. President Trump has paused military aid to Ukraine, a White House official said. “President Trump has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution,” said the official yesterday. Since Russia’s invasion three years ago, the U.S. Congress has approved $175 billion in total assistance for Ukraine, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The Trump administration inherited $3.85 billion worth of Congressionally-approved authority to dip into U.S. arms stocks for Ukraine. It was already unlikely for that assistance to be used. Beyond the military portion, U.S. assistance to Ukraine also includes budgetary assistance, largely delivered through a World Bank trust fund, and other funds that had been delivered through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The U.S. decision left many questions unanswered, including whether munitions for the already delivered weapons systems can now be supplied or if the U.S. would still share intelligence with Ukraine on target identification and missile launches. If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that Putin does not invade Ukraine again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine, Vice President Vance said in an interview on Fox News. France, Britain 'and potentially other European countries' have offered to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire – something Moscow has already rejected – but say they would want support from the U.S., or a 'backstop.' The Hungarian government, a vocal critic of EU sanctions against Moscow and the bloc’s financial and military support for Ukraine, said of Trump’s pause in military aid: “The U.S. President and the Hungarian government share the same stance: instead of continuing weapons shipments and the war, a ceasefire and peace talks are needed as soon as possible.” (Source: Daily Ausaf, an international Urdu daily newspaper, headquarters Islamabad, Pakistan / Reuters - United Kingdom)

4th Mar 2025  Earlier today morning US Vice-President Vance said: “Here’s the problem with the Europeans - they need to be realistic, and the craziest part about this is sometimes you have European heads of state who in public will puff up their chest and say ‘we’re in this with President Zelensky for the next ten years’. And in private they’ll pick up the phone and say ‘this can’t go on forever, he has to come to the negotiating table’. “I honestly don’t care what the Europeans say in public. What I care is what they say in private and what they need to be saying to President Zelensky is ‘this can’t go on forever, the bloodshed, the killing, the economic devastation, it’s making everyone worse off’.” (Source: The Scotsman - Scotland)

March 4, 2025  U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine. Fact Sheet / Bureau of Political-Military Affairs. "The killing must stop". "President Trump wants to promote peace, and at his direction we are ready to provide the strong, decisive leadership necessary to reach a sustainable resolution. The President has been clear that he is focused on peace. Effective March 3, 2025, we are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution. To date, we have provided $66.5 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its premeditated, unprovoked, and brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and approximately $69.2 billion in military assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014. We have now used the emergency Presidential Drawdown Authority on 55 occasions since August 2021 to provide Ukraine military assistance totaling approximately $31.7 billion from DoD stockpiles". The full, extensive list  of Air Defense; Fires; Ground Maneuver; Aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Systems; Anti-armor and Small Arms; Maritime; Other capabilities. "To date, nearly 50 Allies and partner countries have provided security assistance to Ukraine. Among their many contributions to Ukraine, Allies and partners have delivered 10 long-range Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 178 long-range artillery systems, nearly 100,000 rounds of long-range artillery ammunition, nearly 250,000 anti-tank munitions, 359 tanks, 629 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), 8,214 short-range air defense missiles, and 88 lethal UAVs". (Source: U.S. Department of State)

(March 4, 2025)  US President Trump's new 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect today, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20 percent, launching new trade conflicts with the top three US trading partners, after Trump declared that all three countries had failed to do enough to stem the flow of the deadly fentanyl opioid and its precursor chemicals into the US. The 20 percent tariff will apply to several major US consumer electronics imports from China previously untouched by prior duties, including smartphones, laptops, videogame consoles, smartwatches and speakers and Bluetooth devices. China responded immediately after the deadline, announcing additional tariffs of 10-15 percent on certain US imports from 10 March and a series of new export restrictions for designated US entities. China's new tariffs announced today targeted a wide range of US agricultural products including certain meats, grains, cotton, fruit, vegetables and dairy products. US farmers were hard hit by Trump's first-term trade wars, which cost them about $27b in lost export sales and conceded a share of the Chinese market to Brazil. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa would respond with immediate 25 percent tariffs on US$20.7 billion worth of US imports, and another US$86.2b if Trump's tariffs were still in place in 21 days. He said previously that Canada would target American beer, wine, bourbon, home appliances and Florida orange juice. Ontario Premier Ford told that he was ready to cut off shipments of nickel and transmission of electricity from his province to the US in retaliation. Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council representing Detroit automakers, called for vehicles that meet the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement's regional content requirements to be exempted from the tariffs. Both the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso fell against the greenback. Trump on Saturday opened a national security investigation into imports of lumber and wood products that could result in steep tariffs. Canada, already facing 14.5 percent US tariffs on softwood lumber, would be hit particularly hard. A week earlier, Trump revived a probe into countries that levy digital services taxes, proposed fees of up to US$1.5 million on every Chinese-built ship entering a US port and launched a tariff investigation into copper imports. These add to his plans for higher "reciprocal tariffs" to match the levies of other countries and offset their other trade barriers, a move that could hit the European Union hard. (Source: RNZ - New Zealand / Reuters - United Kingdom)

March 1, 2025  Zelensky’s diplomatic failure. Zelensky did not “do his homework” when stepping foot into the Oval Office with President Trump and his Vice, Vance. Zelensky’s mission was to secure a historic minerals deal, a pact vital for Ukraine’s struggling economy and ongoing war effort. Instead, he left humiliated, escorted out of the White House by a low-level aide - Deal canceled, lunch scrapped. Even one of Ukraine’s most vocal allies in Washington, Senator Graham, suggested that Zelensky should either “resign” or “change.” This failure was about a leader who misread the room, misunderstood his opponent, and mishandled a moment of geopolitical weight. Ukraine is in a fight for survival. The war has claimed tens of thousands of lives, its economy is in freefall, and Russia shows no sign of relenting. Kyiv’s military ’success’ depends on continued Western aid. The United States is the only power capable of counterbalancing Russia’s aggression. Yet, rather than negotiating from a position of pragmatism, Zelensky chose confrontation. He miscalculated, treating a high-stakes diplomatic engagement as a public relations stunt. He came to Washington seeking a security guarantee. However, the Oval Office was the wrong place, and Trump was the wrong person to strong-arm. Trump did not respond to emotional appeals or moral arguments; He values leverage, loyalty, and transactional politics. Zelensky walked into the room already weakened. His previous actions: speaking at a Harris campaign rally, posing for partisan photo-ops in U.S. battleground states, and failing to assist Trump in 2019 when asked to find information on Biden ahead of the 2020 election, had eroded any goodwill he might have still had. Then, he challenged Vice President Vance on live television, escalating tensions and ensuring his failure. If Zelensky believes Europe can replace the U.S. in Ukraine’s war or negotiations with Russia, he has ignored history. The European powers, once dominant, are now mere shadows of their former selves. Their economies resemble that of one of fifty States, their military strength is comparable to the Illinois National Guard, and their geopolitical influence has long faded since 1945. Unlike past American presidents who indulged the fiction of European autonomy, Trump refuses to play along. French President Macron, banking on his rapport with Trump, visited Washington in hopes of steering him toward a more nuanced approach. Trump, unimpressed, saw only weakness. Weeks later, he imposed a fresh wave of tariffs on European goods. The same fate befell Britain’s prime minister. After initially expressing reservations about Trump’s return to power, he rushed to the White House to mend ties, carrying a personal invitation from King Charles III. Trump did not need to remind him of Britain’s dependence; the prime minister arrived hat in hand, eager to reestablish relations. Europe’s response to Trump’s foreign policy has been one of reluctant adaptation. Some leaders continue to express skepticism. Others, like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, fully support Washington’s approach. Europe remains deeply vulnerable and dependent on the U.S. for security. The war in Ukraine has made this clear. European nations have provided significant military and financial aid to Kyiv, but without U.S. support, the war likely would have been lost long ago. The challenge for European leaders now is not just maintaining support for Ukraine but doing so without antagonizing Trump. Many European governments understand this reality. They have taken steps to ensure they remain in Washington’s good graces, primarily by ’purchasing U.S. military equipment and reinforcing their NATO commitments’. Poland and the Baltic states, discuss to prioritize strong ties with the U.S., knowing full well that their security depends on it. Zelensky seems to have ignored these lessons. His failure in the Oval Office was a failure to grasp the new reality of international politics. The war with Russia is not a stage for grandstanding. It is a brutal contest where survival depends on strategy, not theatrics. The world has changed, and so has the balance of power. If Ukraine is to endure, its leader must learn the rules of the game. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Charai, the Publisher of the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune who serves on the boards of directors of the Atlantic Council, the International Crisis Group, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and the Center for the National Interest.

February 28, 2025  President Trump and Zelenskyy in Oval Office. /Video/ (Source: YouTube / White House - U.S.)
235 085 views

NATO

March 1, 2025  The Trump administration is vocalizing its desire to cut a deal with Moscow rather than continue the war. Some of the pro-Ukraine hawks in NATO are concerned that Russia will take Ukraine and then ’attack an actual NATO member state, like Poland’. The Netherlands’ snap deployment of a pair of F-35s stationed in Estonia to assist what they feared was a surprise Russian assault on neighboring Poland is a great example of the high-tension situation in Europe today - NATO almost went to war with Russia earlier this week. The two Dutch F-35s were sent into Poland to ensure that the Russians ’were not possibly initiating a wider attack’ against a key NATO member. Russian commanders might very well have assumed this was the NATO attack they have long feared was coming. Nerves are frayed on both sides, especially as neither side fully knows what the outcome of the war will be. Any objective observer would have seen that the Russians were not attempting a wider attack on Poland. Putin favored a relatively limited military campaign against Ukraine rather than seeking an expansive blitzkrieg through Europe. This was not the first time that NATO had a scare during the Ukraine War. And a new, hawkish government reigns supreme in Poland. NATO should stop looking for a casus belli with which to justify a direct conflict with the Russian Federation that is far stronger than it has generally acknowledged. Instead, the alliance must seek an end to the war. Moscow may one day decide to try their luck once more against a NATO member. But that day will not be any time soon. Indeed, Moscow will need to spend the next decade or so rehabilitating its forces after the Ukraine War is resolved. NATO should not be itching for a fight with Russia right now. Those planes should have never been deployed into Poland when and how they were. Greater restraint is needed to let the diplomats from the United States and the Russian Federation have a chance of resolving the war without further bloodshed. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
By Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest, a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book: A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine.

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Europe

European Commission
24.02.2025  'There can be no other solution other than a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the EU foreign policy chief Kallas said today’. Speaking at joint news conference after a meeting of EU-Israel Association Council, she said: We support the Palestinian Authority and its return to Gaza. We support the return of every displaced Palestinian for whom Gaza is their home. She added: When the time comes, the EU will also support Gaza's reconstruction, together with the regional actors. Palestinians must be able to live in Gaza /Photo/ (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

February 24, 2025  European Union’s foreign policy chief Kallas insisted today that the U.S. cannot seal any peace deal to end the war with Putin 'without Ukraine or Europe being involved'. The EU’s top diplomat also highlighted what she claimed were 'pro-Russian positions being taken up by the Trump administration'. ’You can discuss whatever you want with Putin. But if it comes to Europe or Ukraine, then Ukraine and Europe also have to agree to this deal,’ Kallas told reporters in Brussels, where she is chairing a meeting of EU foreign ministers. Kallas travels to Washington tomorrow for talks with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. In terms of the U.S. message, she said it was ’clear that the Russian narrative is there very strongly represented.’ Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Witkoff, notably suggested yesterday that Russia was "provoked" ahead of the Ukraine invasion by increasing talks of Kyiv joining NATO. Putin’s spokesperson, Peskov, said Russia does not see any way to resume ’dialogue with Europe’ after the European Union adopted its 16th round of sanctions against Russia on the third anniversary of the invasion. The measures include targeting Russia’s so-called "shadow fleet" of ships that it exploits to skirt restrictions on transporting oil and gas, or to carry Ukrainian grain. The EU said 74 vessels were added to its list. EU foreign policy chief Kallas said the new sanctions also target ’those who support the operation of unsafe oil tankers, videogame controllers used to pilot drones, banks used to circumvent our sanctions, and propaganda outlets used to spout lies.’ Asset freezes and travel bans were imposed on 83 officials and entities. More than 2,300 officials and entities have been hit since the invasion began. By adding new sanctions, European nations appear to be convinced that the war should continue, Peskov said. This stands in contrast with searching for ways to resolve "the conflict around Ukraine which is what we are currently doing with the Americans," Peskov said. Speaking about Russia’s changing relationship with the U.S., Peskov welcomed "attempts by Washington to really understand what was the root cause of this conflict." The U.N. General Assembly, meanwhile, is expected to vote today on dueling resolutions: Ukraine’s European-backed proposal demanding 'an immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from the country' and a U.S. call for a swift end to the war that never mentions Moscow’s aggression. (Source: Fox News; „The Associated Press contributed to this report” = U.S.).

European Union
February 24, 2025, Monday  Billions in new military aid pledged for Ukraine by European and NATO partners. Today, EU foreign ministers convened to discuss the provision of additional military aid to Ukraine, with the potential package amounting to as much as €30 billion. The final figure has not yet been determined. EU leaders are set to deliberate on the matter next week. Due to opposition from some member states, including Hungary, the aid is likely to be structured through individual state contributions rather than an official EU-wide package. During the Support Ukraine forum in Kyiv,     Canada has committed additional military aid to Ukraine, including 25 LAV-3 infantry fighting vehicles and four F-16 fighter jet simulators. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that this aid would be supplemented with additional ammunition, equipment, and medical supplies. Canada will also transfer the first installment of its US billion aid package, funded by proceeds from frozen Russian assets.    Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, attended the anniversary events in Kyiv alongside EU and European leaders. Denmark announced a new - approximately €268 million (2 billion Danish kroner) - aid package for Ukraine, used for ammunition supplies and the development of a brigade-sized Ukrainian force in cooperation with Nordic and Baltic countries. Denmark has pledged 405 million Danish kroner (approximately .8 million) for humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts.    Finland has committed €4.5 million to the Partnership Fund for a Resilient Ukraine (PFRU) for 2025-2027, supporting infrastructure reconstruction and basic services.    Norway will provide 12.5 billion Norwegian kroner (.1 billion) for humanitarian and energy security support.    Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was announcing a €1 billion aid package for Kiev. He emphasized Spain's commitment to Ukraine's reconstruction efforts. Spain and Ukraine would collaborate on supporting the Ukrainian diaspora. Sánchez reaffirmed Spain's support for Ukraine's EU accession.    Sweden will contribute 1.2 billion Swedish kroner (3 million) for air defence systems as part of a broader .2 billion aid package.    From the European Union, Ukraine is set to receive a €3.5 billion financial aid payment in March. European Commission President der Leyen emphasized Europe’s commitment to strengthening Ukraine during this critical time. She ’noted that the EU and its member states have provided a total of €134 billion in support to Ukraine', ’more than any other international partner’.    "Reports indicate that the EU continues to spend more on Russian oil and gas than on financial aid to Ukraine, purchased €22 billion worth of fossil fuels from Russia in 2024, surpassing the €19 billion allocated to Kyiv". Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) and the Kiel Institute for World Economics (IfW Kiel) reveal that the continent remains a significant buyer. Russia continues to circumvent sanctions through shadow tanker fleets, with up to half of its tax revenues stemming from oil and gas sales. To address this issue, the EU is actively seeking ’alternative energy sources’, including increased imports from the United States. Meanwhile, Russia’s oil and gas revenue surged by 41% in the first half of 2024, reaching .12 billion, driven by rising oil prices and a depreciating rouble. (Sources: Novinite – Bulgaria; "Radio Liberty; X"= U.S.; Ukrainska Pravda; The Kyiv Independent = Ukraine; The Guardian – United Kingdom)

Russia
24.02.2025 The Chinese and Russian leaders today discussed over phone strengthening strategic cooperation between their countries and Moscow’s recent contacts with Washington, the Kremlin said, describing the conversation as “warm and friendly”. The Chinese side expressed support for the ongoing dialogue between Russia and the United States and its willingness to help find a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict, the statement said. This was the second phone call between the two since US President Trump assumed office last month. Xi echoed the Kremlin saying Russian-Chinese relations are strategic in nature, not subject to external influence and not directed against anyone. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

China
(Monday), February 24, 2025  China says its forces have begun live-fire exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin today, only days after Vietnam announced a new line marking what it considers its territory in the body of water between the two countries. The exercises would be focused on the Beibu Gulf area, closer to the Chinese side of the Gulf of Tonkin, and would run through Thursday evening. In the nearby South China Sea over the Spratly and Paracel Islands and maritime areas China has been been growing aggressive and in October assaulted 10 Vietnamese fishermen near the Paracel Islands, three of whom suffered broken limbs. China's claims overlap with those of the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, while Indonesia has also figured in violent confrontations with the Chinese coast guard and fishing fleets in the waters around the Natuna Islands. Leaders in Australia and New Zealand also said China should have given more warning before its navy conducted an unusual series of live-fire exercises in the seas between the two countries, forcing flights on Friday and Saturday to divert on short notice. (Source: ABC News / Associated Press = U.S.)

North America

United States
(Monday), February 24, 2025  President Trump welcomed French President Macron to the White House for talks today. He looks to quickly end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump is set to hold a meeting Thursday with another key European leader, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Their visits come after Trump shook Europe with repeated criticism of Zelenskyy for failing to negotiate an end to the war and rebuffing a push to sign off on a deal giving the U.S. access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals, which could be used in the American aerospace, medical and tech industries. Trump administration officials say they expect to reach a deal this week that would tie the U.S. and Ukrainian economies closer together. European leaders also were dismayed by Trump's decision to dispatch top aides for preliminary talks with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia without Ukrainian or European officials at the table. It follows a public spat, with Trump calling Zelenskyy a “dictator” and charging Kyiv with starting the war. Zelenskyy then angered Trump by saying the U.S. president was living in a Russian-made ’disinformation space'. Confronting Trump might not be the best approach, analysts say. Another clash is set to play out at the U.N. today after the U.S. proposed a competing resolution that lacks the same demands as one 'from Ukraine and the European Union for Moscow’s forces to immediately withdraw from the country.' Just over a month into his second term Trump also has made demands for territory - Greenland, Canada, Gaza and the Panama Canal. That complicated dynamic makes this week's task all the more difficult for Macron and Starmer. Trump has shown a considerable measure of respect for the Russian leader. Trump said this month that he would like to see Russia rejoin what is now the Group of Seven major economies. Russia was suspended from the G8 after Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Macron said he intends to tell Trump that it’s in the joint interest of Americans and Europeans not to show weakness to Putin during U.S.-led negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. He also suggested that he'll make the case that how Trump handles Putin could have enormous ramifications for U.S. dealings with China, the United States' most significant economic and military competitor. ’How can you then be credible in the face of China if you’re weak in the face of Putin?,’ Macron said on social media. Trump dismissed Zelenskyy's complaints about Ukraine and Europe not being included in the opening of U.S.-Russia talks, suggesting he's been negotiating “with no cards, and you get sick of it.” Putin, on the other hand, wants to make a deal, Trump argued Friday. “He doesn’t have to make a deal. Because if he wanted, he would get the whole country," Trump added. (Source: Time – magazine based in New York City, U.S.)

24 Feb 2025  An American Airlines flight from New York to New Delhi was diverted to Rome after unspecified security concerns were raised. Fighter jets from the Italian Air Force were filmed flying alongside the airliner. /Video/ (Source: Al Jazeera)

Space

Feb 24, 2025  NASA will launch the next crew on an older SpaceX Dragon capsule on March 12, allowing astronauts Wilmore and Williams who have been stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) since last September to return to Earth. (Source: Hindustan Times - India, „With inputs from Associated Press” – U.S.)

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Europe

Germany
(Monday), February 24, 2025  Germany is a country under stress. Merz, the head of the Christian Democrats, is set to become the next chancellor in a coalition government with the Social Democrats, who headed the previous government but sank to a mere 16 percent of the overall vote. Saturday, at a festive political rally at the Loewenbraeukeller, Merz had already intimated to the audience that America was not necessarily a reliable partner of Germany and Europe. On Sunday, he went further. He warned that Trump’s America bore similarities to Putin’s Russia and that Germany could not count on Trump extending the American nuclear umbrella over Europe. On national television, he said: ’My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.’ ’It is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe, he added. ’At the heart of Merz’s apprehensions is the war in Ukraine'. Under Merz, Germany will play a key role in bolstering European support for Ukraine. During the Cold War, the Franco-German relationship was key to countering the Soviet Union. Merz will revive it ’to counter Putin’. French president Macron consulted with Merz before traveling to Washington today to meet with Trump about Ukraine. ’Merz will move to bolster defense spending’. But his narrow victory means that he faces a conundrum. The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats have 328 seats. With the AFD waiting on the sidelines, any new German government coalition ’must hang together or hang separately’. The left and right possess a blocking minority in the Bundestag with 216 seats - reform of the debt brake or special funds, dependent on a 2/3 majority, could only occur with their cooperation. Both the ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany (AFD) Party, which scored over 20 percent in the election to become the second largest party in the Bundestag, and the ’far left’ Die Linke party favor an emollient approach toward Moscow. What’s more, a faction in the SPD, as Forstner, the Washington representative of the Hanns-Seidel Foundation, believes in “the continuation of Ostpolitik tradition,” or détente with the East. “They are still holding to the strategic belief,” he notes, “that there is no peace in Europe without Russia. And Moscow holds the key to eastern European security.” (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Heilbrunn, editor of The National Interest and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Greece
February 24, 2025, Monday  U.S. President Trump has reportedly ordered the closure of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupoli, Greece, Greek newspaper Dimokratia reported. It is a significant shift in U.S. military strategy in the region. Reports suggest that the closure was a result of a joint request from Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan. Turkey, has long been opposed to U.S. military presence near its borders. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

Ukraine
Feb 24, 2025  If Zelensky were to resign or if elections were held, several key figures have emerged as potential successors.     General Zaluzhny served as Ukraine's commander-in-chief of the armed forces from 2021 to 2024 and now holds the position of ambassador to the United Kingdom. He was dismissed as head of the military on February 8, 2024, and replaced by General Syrsky. Zaluzhny's growing popularity among both the public and the military fueled speculation that he posed a potential political challenge to Zelensky's presidency. He and Zelensky have clashed over the general's war strategies and the challenge of mass mobilization. Zaluzhny has not ruled out the possibility he would run for office. The Economist reported on February 19 that it had obtained internal polling indicating Zelensky would lose a future election to Zaluzhny by 30 percent to 65 percent in a wartime election.    Budanov is the head of Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency. An InfoSapiens poll conducted from November 15 to 27 ranked Budanov second after Zaluzhny, with a trust rating of 54.6 percent. Zelensky held a 53 percent trust rating, while Zaluzhny led with 76.8 percent. In a YouTube interview Budanov suggested a ceasefire could be reached this year. How long it will be, how effective it will be - is another question, Budanov said.    Stefanchuk, the chairman of Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada), has also been floated as a potential successor to Zelensky. A key ally of the president, Stefanchuk has strongly opposed calls from Trump and Putin for Ukraine to hold elections. He has yet to declare any presidential ambitions.    The U.S. and Russia are engaged in talks to potentially broker a peace deal to end the war - without Ukraine's participation. White House press secretary Leavitt told on February 22 Trump is "very confident" a deal could be reached as early as "this week." (Source: Newsweek – U.S.)

NATO

24 February 2025  Merz, expected to be the next German chancellor after winning his country’s elections on Sunday, has called on Britain and France to extend their nuclear protection as he seeks ’independence’ for Europe from Trump’s America. Mr Merz said last Friday that Paris and London should discuss ’whether their nuclear protection could also be extended to us’ before warning on Sunday that the US under Mr Trump was now indifferent to the fate of Europe. The United States has long guaranteed Europe’s safety with an arsenal of around 100 nuclear missiles, many of them stationed in a US military base in Germany. France’s nuclear ’deterrent’ is currently independent from Nato, while Britain’s forms a key part of the alliance’s defence strategy. Posting a few French nuclear jet fighters in Germany should not be difficult and would send a 'strong message', a French official told. Deploying fighter jets ’would send a message to Putin’, the source said, while diplomats in Berlin suggested it ’would pressure’ Sir Keir Starmer to do the same. Macron, the French president, spoke with Mr Merz on Sunday night before travelling to the White House to present his plan for European security and the defence of Ukraine to Mr Trump. At the White House summit, the US president suggested his country would not provide security guarantees to Ukraine after a peace deal was signed. Mr Macron said peace must not be a surrender of Ukraine as he also called on Europeans to do more to protect the Continent. Mr Macron also interrupted Mr Trump and corrected him on how much Europe spends on defence. Meanwhile, the US clashed with its allies over a UN resolution on the Ukraine war. Washington voted with Russia against a motion that condemned Putin’s war and called for his forces to be withdrawn. On Monday night, Mr Trump told reporters that European troops ’may go into Ukraine as peacemakers’ and that Putin would accept it. “I’ve asked him that question,” Mr Trump said as he hosted Mr Macron. “He has no problem with it”. The US president suggested that the war in Ukraine could end within weeks. Mr Macron also said a truce in the war could be done in the weeks to come, in an interview with Fox News after his meeting with Mr Trump. The US president said Zelensky could travel to Washington this week or next to seal a minerals agreement, which he called “very close”. Meanwhile, speaking in Moscow, Putin expressed Russia’s readiness to collaborate with the US on rare earth metals production. In remarks broadcast on state television, Putin also said Russia did not rule out European countries participating in a peace settlement. Mr Macron has been pushing Europe to hold a debate on the role that French nuclear weapons can play in the Continent’s defence. Prime Minister Sir Keir has sided with European leaders rather than Mr Trump on the issue of resolving the war in Ukraine, and wants to sign a security and defence pact with the EU. France’s arsenal is believed to contain an estimated 300 nuclear weapons, under its 'force de dissuasion’ programme, with sea and air-based launch capabilities. Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent consists of four Vanguard-class submarines which can carry up to 16 warheads each. German diplomatic sources suggested that talks on a European deterrent for their country had not started, with Mr Merz locked in discussions on forming a coalition government. ’My understanding is that on the CDU side, the thinking is we need a nuclear umbrella, we want to have a say in this, we should be ready to talk about this and we are willing to pay for it’, a diplomat said. The request would be unlikely to be formally made unless the Americans pulled their nuclear deterrent out of Germany. Addressing world leaders via video link at a summit in Kyiv to mark the third anniversary of the Kremlin’s invasion, Sir Keir said that Moscow does not hold all the cards in this war. He added that Britain was ready and willing to support a future peacekeeping deal with ’troops on the ground’, unlike the United States. On a visit to Kyiv yesterday, Johnson, the former prime minister, told there was a ’moral case for Ukraine to have its own nuclear weapons as the threat from Russia rises'. (Source: Telegraph - United Kingdom')

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Europe

Germany
(Sunday), 23.02.2025  Germany’s Merz 'rules out' coalition with 'far-right' AfD after declaring victory in parliamentary elections today. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

European Council
23.02.2025  European Council President Costa announced today that European Union leaders will convene for a special summit on March 6 to address the ongoing war in Ukraine and broader European security concerns. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Ukraine
February 23, 2025  From Trump’s perspective, this is a Biden war that has already been lost. "And politically, it’s much easier for Trump to seek peace than his European counterparts because he campaigned on an anti-war message, repeatedly blaming Biden for the war and saying it would never have happened if he were president". Trump wants to find a quick fix and move on. If it fails, he can wash his hands of it and let the Europeans deal with it. Europe 'clearly doesn’t know what to do now': it can’t accept defeat, but neither can it pretend that Ukraine can win the war without US support. 'Europe’s war strategy is in tatters'. On current trends, it would take Russia until the end of the year to capture the rest of the eastern province of Donbas, without which an end to the war is unlikely anyway. (Source: The Conversation - Melbourne, Victoria, Australia)

(23 February 2025)  If you need me to leave this chair, I am ready to do that. And I also can exchange it 'for Nato membership' for Ukraine, Zelenskyy said in response to a question during a news conference. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Europe
February 23, 2025  Global leaders tend to speak of Europe the same way they speak of Russia, China, and other nations. However, to state the obvious, Europe is not a nation. It’s a collective that, on multinational matters, works through multilateral institutions, most prominently NATO and the European Union. Those institutions require consensus before acting and, not surprisingly, often struggle to find it. ’What has tended to force consensus and maintain European unity, especially at key moments of international crisis, is American leadership’. This remains the case today. Lest anyone doubt the importance of U.S. leadership, compare the Western response to Putin’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 to the Western response to his invasion of Ukraine in 2022. For the former, President Obama chose not to send arms to Kyiv, imposed only minor sanctions on Russian individuals and private institutions, and largely eschewed diplomatic efforts to end the war. Despite its concern over Putin’s continental aggression, Europe did not come together to take bolder action on its own. In the end, the West came to accept Russia’s seizure of Crimea (if not officially). For the latter, President Biden chose to oppose Putin’s invasion forcefully, crafted a broad coalition of Western nations to coordinate a comprehensive strategy, and worked closely with those nations to provide increasingly lethal arms to Kyiv and impose increasingly tough sanctions on Moscow. It is only because of those U.S.-led actions that, to date, Ukraine has rebuffed Russia’s attempted conquest. Now, Trump and his team are calling for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, acceptance of Crimea as a part of Russia, no Ukrainian membership in NATO, and security guarantees for Ukraine that are backed by European and non-European - but not American - troops. Trump is urging NATO members to boost their defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic product, though NATO’s benchmark is 2 percent and Washington itself spends only about 3 percent. Will Europe, acting on its own after a peace agreement that it played no role in shaping, step up forcefully enough to deter Russia from resuming its war against Ukraine? ’This seems like an awfully risky wager for the new team in Washington to make. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Haas, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and the author of, among other books, Harry and Arthur: Truman, Vandenberg, and the Partnership That Created the Free World.

Asia

Iraq
February 23, 2025  Prime Minister Sudani stressed the urgency of restarting oil production and exports within a week with a target of 300,000 barrels per day through the state-owned SOMO company, during a meeting with Kurdistan Region President Barzani. His statement followed a Reuters report claiming the administration of US President Trump was pressuring Baghdad to resume Kurdistan’s oil exports or face sanctions alongside Iran. The suspension of oil exports from Kurdistan and Kirkuk since March 2023 has cost Iraq over $17 billion. (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat, heardquartered in London, United Kingdom, supported by the Saudi government) 

Lebanon
(Sunday), 23/02/2025 Mourners dressed in black, some waving Hezbollah flags or clutching portraits of the group's slain leader Nasrallah, gathered in their thousands to attend his funeral today in a stadium on the outskirts of Beirut. (Source: France 24)

North America

United States
23.02.2025  US President Trump on Sunday praised German Christian Democrats' election victory, calling it a "great day for Germany and the US." "Much like the US, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years," Trump said on X. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

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Europe

Bulgaria
(Saturday), 22/02/2025  Bulgarian consumers boycott major food retail chains and supermarkets in the country over discontent with rising grocery prices. Shoppers are demanding a law to regulate prices and asking supermarkets to limit their profit margins on foodstuffs to less than 30%. Last Thursday's boycott, the second of this year, led to a nearly 30% drop in the turnover of the stores, according to local media. Many consumers in the country say they hope the boycott will bring about a change in prices. For many small grocery store owners, the boycott has led to a favourable increase in sales, with regular customers purchasing more foodstuffs at their shops. Organisers of the boycott are demanding supermarkets limit their profit margins on foodstuffs to less than 30% and want parliament to pass a law to regulate prices. They have called for a fresh boycott on 27 February and urged the authorities to act. Consumer protests and boycotts over rising food inflation and high prices began sweeping across the Balkan region in January, starting in Croatia. A similar boycott has taken place in Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, and Greece. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

February 22, 2025  Bulgaria's new government, which was approved last month after October's snap election, the seventh in four years, has reaffirmed the country's commitment to joining the euro zone next year. Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov has said the 2025 state budget will set a deficit of about 3%, paving the way for the introduction of the euro on January 1, 2026. However, the country still needs to meet an extended inflation target before an examination of the country's bid. Bulgarians are divided over the introduction of the euro, with many worrying that it will cause prices to skyrocket, as happened in Croatia in 2023. Bulgaria's Revival party, which has accused the central bank and the national statistics agency of "fabricating data" to enable the introduction of the euro, has called for a wide public debate on the economic effects of its introduction. Several thousand supporters of Revival party scuffled with police today. while trying to storm the building of a European Union mission during a protest against the country's plans to adopt the euro next year. The anti-government protesters, chanting "Resignation" and "No to the Euro", threw red paint, firecrackers and Molotov cocktails at the EU building in the capital Sofia, setting the front door on fire before the police pushed them away. Around 10 police officers sustained minor injuries and about six people were detained. The protests began in front of the European Union country's central bank, with protesters setting effigies of European Central Bank President Lagarde and other officials on fire. Some waved Bulgarian, Soviet Union or East German flags, while others carried placards reading "We don't Want the Euro". "We don't want Bulgarian financial independence to be destroyed". „We want to keep the Bulgarian lev." Kostadinov, the Revival party chairman, told media: "We are here to defend our freedom." ’Economists say that Bulgaria, where the lev has been long pegged to the euro, would attract more foreign investment if it adopted the single currency and secure credit ratings upgrades that could cut its debt financing costs’. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Germany
Feb 22, 2025  The Trump administration’s apparent intent to decouple U.S. foreign policy from the NATO alliance and cozy up to Putin has rattled Germany in advance of elections tomorrow. Politico reported early yesterday that conservative candidate Merz 'said Germany needed to discuss nuclear sharing options with the U.K. and France, a move that represents a drastic turn in German policy - away from the U.S. and toward ‘strategic autonomy’ with its allies in Europe.' /Source: SpyTalk, a U.S. newsletter/

Russia
Feb 22, 2025  Russia may be willing to use a portion of its $300 billion in frozen assets to help rebuild Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal but insist that some of the funds be allocated to occupied territories. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, over $300 billion in Russian central bank reserves were frozen, with most - 191 billion euros ($198 billion) - held in Belgium's Euroclear depository. The discussions reportedly come amid negotiations between US and Russian officials following their Feb. 18 meeting in Saudi Arabia. The G7 has previously announced that these funds will remain frozen until Russia pays for the destruction it has caused in Ukraine. The EU has already begun leveraging proceeds from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. In January, Ukraine received 3 billion euros ($3.09 billion) as part of the EU's Ukraine Facility, funded through interest earned on the frozen reserves. The US and G7 partners have pledged nearly $50 billion in loans to Ukraine, backed by revenue from Russian assets. According to Reuters, one of the sources said Russia could agree to allocate up to two-thirds of frozen assets for Ukraine's reconstruction, provided accountability guarantees. The remaining funds, Moscow reportedly insists, would go toward rebuilding Russian-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine, which the Kremlin claims as part of Russia. The distribution of funds and the allocation of reconstruction contracts remain key points of contention. It is unclear whether the frozen assets were discussed during the talks. A separate Kremlin-linked source, not directly involved in negotiations, said Russia still demands a gradual easing of sanctions and the full release of its frozen assets. (Source: MEHR News Agency – Iran)

Feb 22, 2025  Russian intelligence has established a new unit that is behind a spate of attempted killings, sabotage, and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Special Tasks is based out of the headquarters of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service, on the outskirts of Moscow. The Journal reports that the department was stood up in 2023 in response to Western support for Ukraine, and it “includes veterans of some of Russia’s most daring clandestine operations in recent years.” Known to Western intelligence officials by its Russian acronym SSD, the unit has absorbed other units, including GRU Unit 29155, which has been blamed for everything from assassinations abroad to bounties on U.S. troops in Afghanistan and the so-called Havana Syndrome anomalous health incidents that have plagued U.S. diplomats, intelligence officers, and others. The department also runs an elite special operations center known as Senezh, where Russia trains some of its special forces. /Source: SpyTalk, a U.S. newsletter/

Ukraine
Feb 22, 2025  Ukraine's access to SpaceX's Starlink internet service may be at risk due to a disagreement over critical minerals with the United States. Last fall, Ukraine suggested opening its critical minerals sector to allied investments as part of a 'victory plan' to strengthen its hand in negotiations. Trump backed the move, seeking rare earths and other minerals from Ukraine in return for financial support during the conflict. The Trump administration has demanded $500 billion in mineral wealth from Ukraine as repayment for wartime aid, without offering specific security guarantees in return. The proposed deal would have entitled Washington and American companies to 50% of Ukraine's critical minerals, including graphite, uranium, titanium, and lithium. The conflict erupted after President Zelenskyy rejected a US proposal for shared ownership of Ukraine's key minerals. The mineral dispute was a major issue during talks between US special envoy Kellogg and Zelenskiy. Ukraine was warned that Starlink services could be terminated if no agreement on mineral access was reached. Haring from the Atlantic Council emphasized the strategic importance of Starlink for Ukraine's military operations, particularly its drone capabilities. "Losing Starlink would be a game changer," she said. (Source: NewsBytes – India)

22 February 2025  Between 5,000 and 7,000 civilians, most of whom are elderly or disabled, remain in Pokrovsk from a pre-war population of 60,000. They survive in freezing, unlit basements with no electricity, living off humanitarian aid, at the mercy of relentless Russian glide-bomb and drone attacks. They do not want to leave, because their whole lives are in Pokrovsk. A mass exodus began last summer when, in one month, the population dropped from 48,000 to just 16,000. Last month, the Russians began marching up the city’s left flank, taking the town of Kotlyne just a few miles away. It is the last stop on the railway line connecting the city to the unoccupied regions to the west. Its capture amounted to the loss of a key supply line. The Russians have begun attempting to advance along the railway line. The capture of Kotlyne also brought the Russians closer to one of the last remaining highways into Pokrovsk – the E50, a couple of miles to the north. Its loss would significantly complicate Ukrainian logistics. Any vehicles coming into Pokrovsk, whether military or civilian, are being targeted by Russian drones. Only a Ukrainian police unit called the White Angels, a specialist evacuation unit, is still entering the city to rescue the remaining citizens. When Bondarenko, an aid worker for the International Rescue Committee asks civilians why they do not leave the towns and villages around Pokrovsk, their answer is often the same: home is home, even if it’s bombed. Some have even come back after initially fleeing. Every second person he sees breaks down when they receive their financial aid, he said and they have to be calmed down and given water. As the Russians inch closer to Pokrovsk, civilians well behind the front line are now evacuating in greater numbers. “If we were discussing this topic a few months ago, most internally displaced people (IDP ) would have been coming from the Donetsk region, from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the neighbouring city,” he says. “Now, we are even talking about IDPs from Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, the areas bordering the combat zones.” (Source: Independent – United Kingdom)

Asia

Iran
Feb 22, 2025  Tensions in the Middle East have reached a boiling point after a tit-for-tat exchange of threats between Iran and Israel. ’Operation True Promise 3 will be carried out at the right time, with precision, and on a scale sufficient to destroy Israel and raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground,' Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) General Jabbari warned. In response to these threats, Israeli Foreign Minister Sa'ar said, "If the Jewish people have learned anything from history, it is this: if your enemy says his goal is to annihilate you - believe him. We are ready." This is the third threat from top IRGC officials in a week. Brigadier General Fadavi and Brigadier General Hajizadeh had also made similar statements pledging to destroy Israel as part of Operation True Promise 3. The increased rhetoric comes with the IRGC simultaneously ramping up missile production. Iran recently received a 1,000-ton shipment of rocket fuel precursor chemicals from China claimed a report published by The Jerusalem Post. The IRGC also unveiled a new underground ’missile city’, an underground missile base ’designed to target destroyers in strategic southern waters’. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi has warned that any Israeli or American attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would lead to an ’all-out war’ in the region. This comes as reports suggest Israel might launch a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear program by midyear. (Source: NewsBytes – India)

North America

United States
Feb 22, 2025  With Russia set to restore its diplomatic missions in the United States, it’s worth remembering why they were shut down in the first place: Russia waged a startlingly open and aggressive intelligence effort inside the United States. One example was Russia’s effort to map America’s underground communication nodes by dispatching intelligence officers to beaches, deserts, and Middle America. What FBI agents found especially unnerving was the Russians’ focus on communication nodes near military bases. 'According to multiple sources, U.S. officials eventually concluded that Moscow’s ultimate goal was to have the capacity to sever communications, paralyzing the U.S. military’s command and control systems, in case of a confrontation between the two powers,' Dorfman reported in Foreign Policy. /Source: SpyTalk, a U.S. newsletter/

Feb 22, 2025  A group of 200 U.S. intelligence community veterans, former ambassadors, Congressional staffers, and others calling themselves The Steady State have banded together to warn of the dangers of President Trump’s “capitulation to Russian interests.” Giving in to Russian demands undermines the foundational principles of U.S. foreign policy, signals weakness, and invites further aggression, the Steady State wrote in a letter to Congress. 'As veterans of national security policy, we understand that Ukraine’s struggle is not merely a regional conflict but a frontline battle in the broader contest between democracy and authoritarianism,' the group wrote in a letter to Congress. /Source: SpyTalk, a U.S. newsletter/

22/02/2025  US President Trump has announced a new phase of Ukraine war ceasefire negotiations between American and Russian delegations in the Saudi capital Riyadh on 25 February. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

22.02.25  US President Trump has once again raised USAID’s funding efforts purported $21-million grant to promote ‘voter turnout’. Trump, as usual, also questioned why such a significant amount was spent abroad when a similar sum could have been used to boost voter turnout in the US. „I want voter turnout too," Trump said at the Governors Working Session. '$29 million to strengthen the political landscape in Bangladesh went to a firm that nobody ever heard of. Got 29 million. They got a check. Can you imagine? You have a little firm, you get 10,000 here, 10,000 there, and then you get 29 million from the United States government. There are two people working in that firm. Two people. I think they're very happy, they're very rich. They'll be on the cover of a very good business magazine pretty soon for being great," he added. (Source: Telegraph India)

(Saturday), Feb 22, 2025  FBI Director Patel takes over the bureau that he spent eight years criticizing. 1,000 staff and special agents at the Pennsylvania Ave. headquarters were ordered into field offices around the country - and another 500 employees will be relocating to the FBI’s facility in Huntsville, Ala. The biggest changes came hours before Patel took his oath of office. Before he arrived all the support employees on the seventh floor where the director's office is - executive assistants and people who move the paper around, the bureaucracy  - they were all told to pack their desks …They were being reassigned, and they were to be removed from the seventh floor and then when he arrived with his own team the director's suite was sealed off, and no one else saw him essentially assuming command. Patel, finally confirmed by the narrowest-ever margin for an FBI nominee by far - 51-49 -  may be getting advice from a group of ex-FBI agents who call themselves “The Suspendables.” The Washington Post reported that these self-described victims of the FBI’s “weaponization” against conservatives have forged bonds with Patel, in some cases accepting financial help from his nonprofit foundation, and have been in contact with him since his nomination. Some of the “Suspendables” have singled out two senior FBI officials - Perkins and Veltri - for punishing political conservatives. Veltri and Perkins were among the eight high-level officials forced out of the bureau shortly after Trump’s inauguration at the request of acting deputy attorney general Bove.    A federal judge temporarily blocked the CIA and the Office of Director of National Intelligence from firing 11 people whose jobs were eliminated to comply with President Trump’s executive order seeking to end federal diversity programs. A total of 51 officers working in diversity and recruiting were placed on paid administrative leave and may be fired. That would be the largest mass dismissal in nearly a half-century. The CIA’s diversity office was closed, and office staff, including Chief Diversity and Inclusion Officer Laurienti, were placed on administrative leave. CIA Director Ratcliffe issued a memorandum Tuesday stating that Laurienti and other employees in the agency’s now-shuttered Diversity and Inclusion Office needed to go and gave them a choice: take retirement, resign and be paid through September, or be fired.    A Facebook account purportedly belonging to a former Soviet intelligence officer made the startling claim that the KGB recruited Trump under the code name “Krasnov” in 1987. The Daily Beast ran a story, which mysteriously vanished a few hours later. Maybe that’s because it’s not true? The Facebook account’s alleged owner is Mussayev, who served as chairman of the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan in the 1990s and is now living in exile in Vienna. The post claimed that in 1987, Mussayev learned about Trump’s recruitment while serving in the KGB’s Sixth Directorate, which he said was responsible for recruiting businessmen from capitalist countries. The report raced around social media, exciting anti-Trump partisans. One problem: the KGB’s First Directorate handled foreign intelligence and recruited Americans; the Sixth Directorate was responsible for economic counterintelligence and industrial security. Another problem: Online biographies reveal that in 1987, Mussayev, then 23, worked in the central office of the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs, not the KGB. He fled Kazakhstan in 2007 amid a corruption scandal.  In 2015, he faced charges in Austria for the abduction and murder of two Kazakh bankers but was acquitted. How come such an explosive allegation is popping up just now, nearly a decade after such allegations reached a fever pitch during Trump’s first term? Could it be that the Facebook 'Mussayev' is a fake, a sophisticated disinfo op? And why use Facebook, a playground for fake personas and foreign disinformation, to air such a charge (instead of a carefully arranged press conference with documents and the backing of experts)? And to what end? One possibility is that it was designed by enemies of Trump - pick a name, any name - to boost the anti-Trump fury while he’s on a roll in Washington. Another, far more devious, ploy, but much in the Russian disinfo DNA, could be that it was actually designed by Moscow to be unmasked in order to embarrass and discredit the legions of people who believe that Putin has some sort of direct leverage over Trump, It’s real wilderness of mirrors stuff.  /Source: SpyTalk, a U.S. newsletter/

22/02/2025  President Trump today said he would appoint retired Air Force Lt. Gen. “Razin” Caine as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, replacing Air Force Gen. Brown Jr., a Biden appointee. Caine worked for three years at the Central Intelligence Agency until December 2024 as associate director for military affairs. Before, he was director of special-access programs at the Pentagon from 2019 to 2021 and a deputy commanding general in the fight against the islamic state, based in Baghdad in 2018 and 2019. Caine, was commissioned in 1990 and served in various roles in the Air Force over more than two decades, including as a fighter pilot. He has also served in the National Guard. Caine has also worked in the private sector as a serial entrepreneur and investor, has held varied private-sector roles, including advising the security and space technology company Voyager and co-founding a Texas-based private airline that was later acquired. He retired from the military last year. Every previous appointee for chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff since 1949 has been either a four-star general or an admiral. This requirement can be waived, however, if the president “determines such action is necessary in the national interest,” according to the law. If confirmed, Caine would be promoted to general. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is the highest-ranking military officer in the Pentagon while holding the position and the principal military adviser to the president. The chairman heads the body consisting of top-level leaders of the main branches of the military. The role does not have executive authority to command combatant forces, and its primary purpose is to provide advice and opinions to the presidential administration. Six years ago at Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) the president described a “perfect” man named “Raisin Caine” whom he had spoken to while visiting troops in Iraq. Trump recounted a conversation in which Caine told him their mission could be “totally finished” in one week if they could use more force. “Why didn’t my other generals tell me that?” Trump said he responded. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post = U.S.)

22 February 2025  President Trump yesterday fired the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen Brown, and pushed out five other admirals and generals. The president will also replace the head of the US Navy, a position held by Adm Franchetti, as well as the air force vice chief of staff. He is also removing the judge advocates-general for the Army, Navy and Air Force. Pentagon was already bracing for mass firings of civilian staff, an overhaul of its budget and a shift in military deployments under Trump's new America First foreign policy. While the Pentagon's civilian leadership changes from one administration to the next, the uniformed members of the US armed forces are meant to be apolitical.    Brown, the president's top uniformed military adviser, was serving a four-year term meant to end in September 2027. He was relieved with immediate effect, before the Senate confirms his successor. During last year's presidential campaign, Trump spoke of firing “woke” generals and those responsible for the troubled 2021 pullout from Afghanistan. „I want to thank Gen Brown for his over 40 years of service to our country, including as our current chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader, and I wish a great future for him and his family, Trump wrote. Brown, a former fighter pilot who has held commands in the Middle East and Asia, recounted experiencing discrimination in the military in an emotional video posted online after the 2020 killing of Floyd, which sparked nationwide protests for racial justice. Defence secretary Hegseth had been sceptical of Brown before taking the helm of the Pentagon with a broad agenda that includes eliminating diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives in the military. In his most recent book, Hegseth, a former Fox News personality and military veteran, asked whether Brown would have got the job if he were not Black. “Was it because of his skin colour? Or his skill? We'll never know, but always doubt - which on its face seems unfair to Brown. But since he has made the racecard one of his biggest calling cards, it doesn't really much matter, he wrote in his 2024 book The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free. Trump said in a post on Truth Social he would nominate former Lt-Gen Dan “Razin” Caine to succeed Brown, breaking with tradition by pulling someone out of retirement for the first time to become the top military officer.    Franchetti was the first woman to command the US Navy. Her 2023 nomination by then-president Biden had been a surprise. Pentagon officials had widely expected the nomination to go to Adm Paparo, who at the time led the navy in the Pacific. Paparo was instead promoted to lead the US military's Indo Pacific Command.    On his first day in office, Trump fired Adm Fagan as head of the US Coast Guard. She had been its first female commanding officer.    It is unclear whom Trump administration will pick to become the new judge advocates-general for the Army, Navy and Air Force. In his 2024 book, Hegseth was highly critical of military lawyers, saying most “spend more time prosecuting our troops than putting away bad guys”. (Source: Time – South Africa / Reuters – United Kingdom)

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Europe

United Kingdom
Feb 21, 2025  A sobering message for Starmer ahead of talks with Trump via Number 10. As Britain’s Prime Minister gears up for a critical meeting with Trump in Washington next week, NATO’s former second-in-command to Europe has a sobering message for him. Keir Starmer “will just be laughed out of court, frankly”, warned General Shirreff today, ’unless there’s been a clear signal from the UK Government that defence spending is going to rise to probably around 3 per cent as a starter’. Britain spends around 2.3 per cent of GDP on defence, which is higher than NATO’s current target of 2 per cent. But it’s well below the whopping 5 per cent figure Trump is demanding of other alliance members, while threatening to encourage the Russians to do whatever the hell they want to any NATO country that doesn't cough up. In its election manifesto, Labour promised to increase the military’s budget to at least 2.5 per cent, which would cost around £5bn extra a year. RUSI estimated back in 2022, that increasing defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by 2030 would require £157 billion worth of additional spending over eight years. The government’s winter fuel payment cut to pensioners is forecast to save £1.3 billion in 2024-25. Britain’s tax burden is already at a post-war high - in the financial year to January, the UK borrowed more than £118 billion - the fourth highest borrowing period since comparable records began in 1993. One key issue to tackle to find savings will be the rising levels of economic inactivity in Britain. The number of individuals in Britain on out-of-work sickness benefits - who are not actively seeking employment - currently stands at 3.2 million. That’s a rise of one million in just five years, with an associated welfare cost of another £10 billion a year. In some parts of Glasgow and Grimsby, almost a third of the working-age population is on sickness benefits. When it comes to the ballooning £48bn UK welfare bill for sickness, which is expected to increase to over £60bn by the end of the decade if trends continue, the fault, lies not with the individuals claiming sickness benefits but with flaws in the system, which mean those struggling with long-term illness are not supported to return to the workplace, and those wanting to return to work are actively disincentivised from doing so: combine sickness benefit with disability benefit (or “PIP”) and it adds up to more than the minimum wage. Reeves is planning £5 billion of welfare cuts at the spending review. The Work and Pensions Secretary, Kendall, is understood to be pressing the Treasury to use some of the savings for an expansion of back-to-work support services for the long-term sick, insisting this measure will pay for itself and is in everyone’s interest. Ahead of the spending review, Reeves is under heavy pressure from officials in the Ministry of Defence who insist that any savings generated should be prioritised for their department. When it comes to increasing defence spending, a bigger budget is only half the challenge: the other crucial task will be ensuring that money is spent wisely. Ministers will be required to make about how best to allocate resources between land, air and sea. When it comes to investment in tech and hardware, a recognition of the ever-greater role that AI plays in defence and deterrence is important. Warnings about the danger of re-arming without re-industrialising will also place demand on ministers to strengthen their support for Britain’s steel industry. Another sticking point as Starmer gears up for his trip across the Atlantic next week. (Source: Reaction.life - news website, United Kingdom)
by Allen, Deputy Editor

North America

United States
February 21, 2025  President Trump delivers remarks at the Governors Working Session /Video/ (Source: YouTube / White House = U.S.)
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February 21, 2025  ... - The administration knows where wants to go. There’s no interagency process, but when has that ever stopped a Trump administration before? Kellogg, the president’s special envoy for Ukraine, stayed in Europe after the others left and talked to European leaders. He even made a trip to Kyiv. So they aren’t completely ignoring Europe. But the administration clearly intends to be in the driver’s seat on negotiations. They even sent around a survey asking states what they can commit to future Ukrainian defense in concrete terms. The elephant in the room: seems like Trump is having some kind of personal spat with Zelensky. He took to Truth Social this week to refer to him as a “dictator” and suggested that Ukraine should hold new elections. Trump also suggested - not so subtly - that Ukraine itself was responsible for starting the war. This is some attempt at 12-dimensional chess from the administration, some people have argued that this is just about pushing Zelensky to the table. Then Zelensky refused to sign a document committing some of Ukraine’s mineral resources to the United States, almost as a kind of reparations for U.S. aid. At least some of these resources are in Russian-occupied areas, and others will be hard to extract in wartime       - What Trump does? In his first term, he said nice things about Putin while instituting a hard-nosed underlying policy. The idea of using Ukrainian critical minerals as collateral for U.S. assistance would give the United States a direct stake in the long-term security and stability of Ukraine. A good strategy starts with a clear goal. How will Ukraine be secured in the long run? Many European allies are promising to commit troops as a kind of trip-wire force. But what if deterrence fails and Putin attacks anyway? Will these European nations, like Sweden and the United Kingdom, really go to war with Russia? Are they expecting an American military backstop? If so, how is that different from NATO membership for Ukraine? Some kind of American backstop could still commit the United States to fight a war with Russia over Ukraine - something the Trump administration is keen to avoid. There is too much talk about a trip-wire force and not enough talk about the military strategy for defending Ukraine. One should start with the defense strategy and then design the trip wire accordingly.      - There are a lot of different proposals out there for what to do next: neutrality and security guarantees, global south peacekeepers, even Europe leaving NATO! The most prevalent is this notion that Europe will send troops, either to act as peacekeepers or as a trip-wire force to prevent future conflict. All the European discussions of a trip-wire force are pointless. They’re not credible, barely practical, and all of them require U.S. support of some kind. ’The only viable approach is a Ukraine that is strong enough to deter future attacks’. It’s quite achievable, particularly when Europe and the United States aren’t pouring thousands of rounds of ammunition and arms into an active conflict. It’s also likely to be more acceptable to Russia than some token European force, and it gives the Europeans more breathing space to build up their militaries for their own defense. ’I sincerely hope this is one of the options the administration has on the table; it’s win-win-win. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
by Ashford, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University, and the author of Oil, the State, and War; Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His latest book, with Negrea, is We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War. 

(February 21, 2025)   '1991 – 2025 Ukraine’s struggle for independence in Russia’s shadow' /Photo/ (Source: Council on Foreign Relations - Headquarters New York City, U.S.)
Note: A version

NATO

February 21, 2025  Ukraine’s biggest backers in percent of GDP. For the Baltic states - NATO states near Russia - helping Ukraine ’is a strategic necessity’ given their geographic vulnerability. Estonia is contributing 2.2 percent of its GDP, Lithuania 1.8 percent, Latvia 1.5 percent. Denmark has a vital interest in the security of the Baltic and Arctic regions. It allocates more than 2 percent of its GDP to supporting Ukraine. The U.S. is the 12th largest contributor as a share of GDP (0.5 percent). Europe as a whole provided more than 132 billion euros in financial, humanitarian and military aid. The U.S. has provided nearly $120 billion (115 billion euros), far more than any single European country or the EU. The U.S. is the biggest contributor of military aid, providing roughly five times more than Germany, the next largest contributor. If Washington has its way, Europe's share of the burden is about to rise. /Map/ (Source: Geopolitical Futures - U.S.)

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Europe

France
2/20/2025  France and Britain, the only nuclear powers among the Europeans, have been drawing up plans for a ’reassurance’ force that could be deployed to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire deal, a proposal that would require U.S. support. French President Macron convened a meeting Wednesday evening as part of his efforts to bring together a crisis coalition of sorts. It was the second urgent meeting this week at the Élysée presidential palace. Leaders of 19 countries, including European allies and Canada, joined mostly by video link. After the meeting, Macron outlined three conditions for a long-lasting and solid peace: Ukraine must be included, an agreement must have robust and credible guarantees, and Europe’s security concerns must be taken into account. ’We are convinced of the need to increase our defense and security spending and capabilities for Europe and each of our countries’, Macron said. Macron is due to visit Trump in Washington Monday, and will be followed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer later in the week. Starmer called Zelensky yesterday to express support and said it was ’perfectly reasonable to suspend elections during wartime,’ according to the British prime minister’s office. Trump’s national security adviser Waltz, speaking at the White House briefing, said the president is “very frustrated” with Zelensky, referring to a deal that would give the United States a stake in Ukraine’s natural resources. “The fact that he hasn’t come to the table, that he hasn’t been willing to take this opportunity that we’ve offered,” Waltz said, adding that he hopes there will be an agreement “very soon.” Waltz also pushed back today against concerns that Ukraine was being shut out of negotiations over its own future. “We’ve had plenty of engagement and dialogue,” he said, adding that Kellogg “is literally there right now” and that the administration was consulting with European allies. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post = U.S.)

Poland
February 20, 2025  The Three Seas Initiative (3SI), championed by Polish president Duda, received strong support from President Trump during his first term. European leaders with strong American backing should articulate a fitting vision and strategy at the upcoming Three Seas Initiative Summit in Poland in April. Poland should engage the 3SI member states and the European Commission to announce a bold and expanded vision that serves both European and American interests by inviting Trump to the summit. 3SI is an opportune vehicle to realize the region’s growing import across Eurasia optimally. There are two key avenues for cementing 3SI as a European priority and advancing American interests. First, establish 3SI as the primary conduit for constructing military mobility corridors to buttress NATO’s forward posture along an expanded front from Finland to Romania. Central to this vision is improved road and rail connections that would link NATO’s front lines to the region’s economic hinterlands and the three key ports of Trieste on the Adriatic, Gdańsk on the Baltic, and Constanța on the Black Sea. This bolstered interconnectedness enhance deterrence against Russia. It would be indispensable to the reconstruction and security of a post-war Ukraine. Second, institute 3SI - in close coordination with the European Commission - as the primary launchpad for the European Global Gateway initiative. Trusted connectivity can be achieved. To the south, the Global Gateway-3SI region through Trieste connects to burgeoning Indo-Mediterranean trade driven by the world’s fastest-growing large economy, India, along with the Gulf states and Israel. A reinvigorated 3SI coupled with the India-Middle East-European Economic Corridor (IMEC) is well positioned to usher in a “New Golden Road” that can drive Indo-European trade and commerce to new heights in the twenty-first century. President Trump recently announced that he and Prime Minister Modi have “agreed to work together to help build one of the greatest trade routes running from India to Israel to Italy and onwards to the U.S. - connecting our partners, roads, railways and undersea cables.” To the east, the three sea regions connect with the Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and Central Asia, establishing a Central Asia-Caucasus-Europe Economic Corridor (CACE). The European Global Gateway project boasts subsea digital and power lines across the Black Sea to the Caucasus as one of its flagship projects. CACE stands to elevate freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and indemnify Ukrainian coastal integrity.  To the north, the three-seas region connects to Baltic and Arctic NATO member states for greater coordination in advancing shared security and economic interests from the Gulf of Finland to the Gulf of Alaska. The upcoming 3SI Summit offers a propitious platform not only to expand 3SI’s vision but also to increase membership. 3SI should endeavor to include all major European littoral nations of the three seas, in particular Italy and Ukraine. The fifteen-member 3SI becomes an indispensable regional actor in shaping the future of European security and prosperity. The primary objective is to attract private institutional investors to infrastructure projects. Member states may consider a 3SI-NATO Fund with earmarked budgetary contributions to leverage matching private funds in constructing dual-use military mobility corridors. If optimally executed, the above strategy may transform Eastern Europe to a degree comparable to what the Marshall Plan achieved for Western Europe. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Arha, President of the Free & Open Indo-Pacific Forum and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue; Debski, Professor of Strategy at the College of Europe in Natolin, Warsaw; Riisalo, former Minister of Economy and Technology of Estonia.

Ukraine
2/20/2025  Amid war of words, President Trump's envoy meets Zelensky today. Retired Lt. Gen. Kellogg, Trump’s envoy on the war in Ukraine arrived in Kyiv soon after Trump describing the Ukrainian president as failing and blaming him for Russia’s 2022 invasion of the country. Zelensky countered that Trump was repeating misinformation about him and the war. Ukraine is ready for a strong, truly beneficial agreement with the President of the United States on investments and security, Zelensky wrote on Telegram after the meeting. At the request of the American side, the format of the meeting was for a protocol photo op. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post = U.S.)

Feb 20, 2025  Pressured by Putin and Trump, walls close in on Zelensky. Outgunned Ukrainian forces have slowly lost territory to Russian troops over recent weeks. US President Trump described Zelensky as a corrupt "dictator" and claimed he was no longer Ukraine's legitimate leader. Zelensky accused Washington of helping Putin come out of isolation and said Trump was trapped in a Russian disinformation bubble. Zelensky, a former comedian, won accolades abroad and drew comparisons with Winston Churchill when he remained in Kyiv in February 2022. In Kyiv, the ground is shifting rapidly beneath Zelensky's feet. He called off an official visit to Saudi Arabia this week. The leader's problems mount at home. The 47-year-old has seen his approval ratings plummet. Old political rivalries are resurfacing. Zelensky’s decision last week to sanction former president Poroshenko sparked protests in parliament. Poroshenko described the move as a huge blow to internal unity. The mayor of Kyiv Klitschko - a long-standing rival of Zelensky - said the spat was harming both democracy and the country as a whole. A source in the Ukrainian presidency said there was no panic within Zelensky's office. Zaluzhny, the former head of the army tipped to be the favourite in any upcoming election, this week refused to rule out that he would stand in a presidential vote. (Source: Barron’s – U.S. / Agence France-Presse)

United Kingdom
Thursday 20 February 2025  A Downing Street spokesperson said Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Zelensky today evening to express support for him ’as Ukraine's democratically elected leader’. Zelensky was elected as president of Ukraine in May 2019. Previously scheduled to go ahead in 2024, elections were not held as a result of martial law being in place. /Video/ (Source: Independent – United Kingdom)

Thursday 20 February 2025  UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer will reportedly present the peacekeeping plan agreed in Paris to US president Trump during a visit to Washington, D.C. next week, as he hopes to lead European efforts to influence the future settlement in Ukraine. He will push for US fighter jets and missiles to be on standby in eastern Europe to deter Russian forces from breaching any agreed terms. The plan will see troops stationed in Ukraine’s strategic cities, ports and nuclear power stations - but kept well away from the frontline. There would be a heavy emphasis on intelligence and surveillance capabilities, allowing European countries to send a smaller number of troops on the ground in Ukraine.  But they would be backed up by a “US backstop”, which Sir Keir said was the “only way” to deter Putin from attacking again. The backstop may include US fighter jets in Romania and Poland, or a large multi-national land force stationed on Nato’s eastern borders ready to move into Ukraine if necessary to protect European troops. Downing Street hopes that Trump will be inclined to accept this proposal, largely as it does not involve having US troops stationed in Ukraine. (Source: Independent – United Kingdom)

Asia

Turkey
20.02.2025  At least 31 terrorists were "neutralized" in counterterrorism operations in northern Iraq and Syria over the past week. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

North America

United States
Feb. 20, 2025  Patel, a longtime loyalist to President Trump, was confirmed by the Senate today as director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. He previously worked on Capitol Hill and in the first Trump administration, after working as a federal prosecutor in Washington and a federal public defender in Florida. Patel is a firebrand who appeared on a broad array of conservative media shows and has spoken about his desire to "come after the people in the media." At his confirmation hearing on Jan. 30., he distanced himself from Trump's sweeping pardons of Capitol rioters, saying he disagreed with the commutations of individuals who assaulted law enforcement officers on Jan. 6. Democratic senators confronted Patel about his repeated contentions that the 2020 election was stolen. The final vote was 51-49. Since Trump took office a month ago, the head of the Washington Field Office - which oversaw the sprawling Jan. 6 probe - was forced out, as were six of the FBI’s most senior executives and multiple heads of FBI field offices around the country. The FBI ultimately handed over the names of FBI employees who worked on Jan. 6 cases as requested. Patel has a close relationship with a network of conservative former FBI agents who were pushed out over the past several years. It is predicted that Patel would do what needs to be done at the FBI, which is not just dismantle this agency from the top headquarters down to 56 FBI field offices, but also hold accountable those agents who have used their unaccountable power to weaponize the most powerful law enforcement agency in the country against the political foes of the regime. (Source: NBC News - U.S.)

February 20, (2025)  The Center for the National Interest hosted two experts on Russia, Ukraine, and the war to discuss these issues and more. Dr. Gvosdev is a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College and a non-resident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, a former editor of The National Interest and a current contributing editor; Haring is a senior advisor at Razom for Ukraine, a non-governmental advocacy and assistance organization, and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, where she was previously deputy director of the Eurasia Center and editor of Ukraine Alert. She recently returned from meetings in Ukraine. Saunders, the president of the Center for the National Interest, moderated the discussion. /Video/ (Source: YouTube / The National Interest = U.S.)
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Note: A summary opinion (insight): 'The Bundeswehr is now an army where you have one infantryman to every four kennels. Was it now the British have more admirals than they have ships in the British, in the Royal Navy?'

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Europe

European Union
(Wednesday), February 19, 2025  European Union ambassadors approved today the 16th package of sanctions against Russia, banning Russian aluminum imports and imposing new export bans on Moscow. This package is now expected to be approved by EU ministers at a regular meeting next Monday. Despite last-minute concerns expressed by Greece, EU countries agreed to stop imports of Russian aluminum. Downstream Russian products of the metal have already been blocked, and the European Commission proposed in this package to also ban primary aluminum. Absent from the package is a full ban on Russian liquified natural gas (LNG). The issue has been caught up in trade talks now just getting started with U.S. President Trump’s administration, with Brussels holding off on barring Russian LNG until it potentially strikes a deal to buy more American LNG. Source: (Source: Politico – U.S.)

Ukraine
Wed, 19 Feb, 2025 - 10:00  US President Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Mr Kellogg, is in Kyiv for talks with Zelensky and military commanders. Mr Kellogg said his visit is “a chance to have some good, substantial talks”. “We understand the need for security guarantees,” he said in comments on his arrival at Kyiv railway station. His visit comes after Trump suggested Kyiv was to blame for the war which enters its fourth year next week and talks between top American and Russian diplomats in Saudi Arabia sidelined Ukraine and its European supporters. Mr Zelenskyy cancelled his planned today trip to Saudi Arabia. He has said any settlement will require US security commitments to keep Russia at bay. “It’s very clear to us the importance of the sovereignty of this nation and the independence of this nation as well … Part of my mission is to sit and listen,” the retired three-star general said. Mr Kellogg said he will convey what he learns on his visit to Mr Trump and Secretary of State Rubio “and ensure that we get this one right”. The battlefield has brought grim news for Ukraine in recent months. A relentless onslaught in eastern areas by Russia’s bigger army is grinding down Ukrainian forces, which are slowly but steadily being pushed backwards at some points on the 1,000km front line. (Source: Associated Press – U.S.)

Feb 19, (2025)  Russia unleashed a mass drone attack on Ukraine's southern city of Odesa for the second night running today, knocking out power for some 5,000 residents. Nearly 90,000 people had been left in the dark in Odesa district in and around the city. Zelenskiy said a similar number was without heating. The temperature in the Black Sea port was about minus 6 degrees Celsius. The strikes had triggered a fire at a restaurant and a storage facility and damaged an administrative building. One person was injured. Photos on social media showed areas of the city in darkness. Four people, including a child, were injured in the initial attack yesterday. The Ukrainian military said Russia launched 167 drones overnight yesterday in the region and elsewhere in the country. Air defence units and mobile drone hunting groups shot down 106 of them, and 56 drones were 'lost' ’in reference to the military using electronic warfare to counter unmanned aircraft, it said’. Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure since March 2024, knocking out about half of the available generating capacity and causing widespread blackouts. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Feb 19th 2025  Yesterday, Mr Zelensky cancelled a long-planned trip to Saudi Arabia, saying he did not want to be associated with talks held there without him: ’We were not invited…It was a surprise for us, I think for many others as well.’ Today, Mr Trump responded by calling Mr Zelensky “a dictator”. The country faces a fight for its survival. People, politicians and soldiers are exhausted. Hundreds of thousands are dead or wounded. Millions have left the country. Perhaps a third of the ’4.3m Ukrainians who fled to Europe’ are under 18; many of them will never return. A deal without long-term security will push more parents to send their children abroad, exacerbating Ukraine’s already pronounced demographic malaise. Either they send their boys to Europe while the law still allows them to, or they let them stay and risk everything. For all the turmoil, there is still nothing resembling a deal—yet. But so far much is developing according to Ukraine’s worst-case scenario. Many of its elite are apprehensive that the language coming from the Trump team 'echoes a Russian trap': calling for a ceasefire without security guarantees, and immediate elections that would shatter Ukrainian unity. ’Mr Trump appears to want to get rid of Mr Zelensky, whom he has never liked and who he thinks is difficult, says a former diplomat. ’This is not about elections, it’s about getting rid of Zelensky. In theory, Ukraine could fight on in defiance of a Trump deal. In practice, its hand will worsen with time. The war is brutal for both sides, but more so for the poorer and less numerous Ukrainians. There are serious problems at the operational level, and a notable absence of strategic planning. Front-line brigades are running out of men, with some down to less than a third of their regular size. As one senior American official says: ’If Zelensky can mobilise 18- and 20-year-old men, it might be worth fighting. If he can’t, he should take the best deal he can.’ Insiders worry Mr Zelensky is retreating into an ever narrower circle - right at a time he needs the broadest support. Standing up to an American leader who thrives on using enemies to define himself will be dangerous, and psychologically tough. ’There is no one who is ready to say no to him,’ complains one, ’and he is making mistakes.’ Many Ukrainians are clearly frustrated with their war leader too. Internal polling revealed shows that while Mr Zelensky would lose a future election by 30% to 65% to Zaluzhny, his former top general, who has yet to enter politics. Mr Trump, meanwhile, has many levers he might pull to enforce a solution. He can - and very likely will - cut or stop military aid. He might unilaterally lift sanctions on Russia. He might cut other vital support such as real-time targeting and Starlink, the backbone of Ukraine’s battlefield communications. There are new workarounds, but turning those systems off would hurt. If all this seems perilous, it is not the worst-case scenario. The true Ukrainian nightmare would come from Mr Trump enforcing the Kremlin blueprint in entirety: ceasefire without effective security guarantees; elections that result in political paralysis, a weak presidency, a fractious parliament; then demobilisation, mass emigration and the beginning of internal disintegration. The unity shown by Ukrainians in the early days of the war would be a distant memory. ’This is far from an impossible scenario,’ admits one official. ’Remember there are millions of weapons in the country. You can even buy a captured Russian tank on the frontlines for 100,000 hryvnia [$2,400].’ A senior Ukrainian official says it is unlikely Ukraine would ever formally recognise lost territories as part of a deal, but concedes NATO membership is understood to be a distant prospect. A bare minimum of what Ukraine could accept, he says, is continued ties with Western armies, no serious demilitarisation, continued flow of weapons and money, and a foreign peace-keeping force. The size of that force matters less than the fact it is present. ’Once they are here, we believe it will be hard for them to walk away.’ (Source: The Economist – Headquarters London, England)

February 19, 2025  Zelenskiy has frozen a proposed concession to mine Ukraine’s considerable mineral resources worth several trillion dollars after the US side offered little in return. The leader has been clear that the US minerals deal must encompass not only subsoil resources but also security guarantees and foreign investment in Ukraine. It is becoming increasingly clear that none of his allies are willing to offer a genuine security deal. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov kicked off preliminary talks in the the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia capital with his counterpart, Secretary of State Rubio. Rubio said an agreement could unlock “historic” gains for Russia that would "be good for Russia and good for the world." During the talks, the Russian and US delegates outlined the scope of the talks that will also include energy and business. No Ukrainians were present at the talks. The Secretary of State said that should the countries come to terms on a Ukraine deal, this would pave the way to "work together on other geopolitical matters of common interest and some pretty unique, potentially historic economic partnerships. Russia is also heavily involved in the Middle East where it has reportedly just closed a deal with the new Syrian leader Sharaa to keep its military bases in that country. Moscow is also close to Tehran, as a fellow sanctioned pariah, and it has also been suggested that Trump hopes to negotiate with the Iran theocracy through Russian President Putin. A Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia arrived a few days ago and opened discussions to deepen economic cooperation with nearly 100 local entrepreneurs. They presented these businesses with promising investment opportunities in Ukraine worth $500mn in energy, agriculture, agro-processing, and infrastructure. Collaboration in public-private partnerships and the involvement of Saudi Arabian companies in privatisation were also discussed. The Minister of Economy, Svyrydenko said that Saudi Arabia actively supports Ukraine, noting that it has already allocated $500mn for reconstruction. Zelenskiy is also due to arrive in Riyadh today but won’t participate in the US-Russian talks. In the meantime, the leader has been left scrambling to rescue something from his rapidly deteriorating position and travelled to the Middle East to reach out for new investors. During a working visit to the United Arab Emirates, Zelenskiy announced the signing of a bilateral trade agreement that will simplify trade between the two countries. This agreement could accelerate real GDP growth by 0.1% in the medium to long term. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Berlin, Germany)

United Kingdom
19.02.2025  Last year, 6,313 anti-Muslim hate cases were recorded, a 165% rise from 2022, the Measuring Anti-Muslim Attacks or Tell Mama said in its annual report released today. 'The group attributed this sharp rise to the conflict in the Middle East'. Online anti-Muslim hate reports to Tell Mama surged by 1,619% after Oct. 7, 2023, Tell Mama Director Iman Obe stressed. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

Syria
February 19, 2025  More than one million people have returned to their homes in Syria after the overthrow of Assad, including 280,000 refugees who came back from abroad, Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees wrote yesterday. At a meeting in Paris in mid-February, some 20 countries, including Arab nations, Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Japan agreed at the close of a conference in Paris to work together to ensure the success of the transition in a process led by Syria. The meeting’s final statement also pledged support for Syria’s new authorities in the fight against all forms of terrorism and extremism. (Source: Gulf News - United Arab Emirates)

North America

United States
19 Feb 2025  On his social media platform Truth Social today, United States President Trump accused Zelenskyy of taking US money and embroiling the country in an endless conflict. Trump’s broadsides against Zelenskyy followed after the leader had said the US president was inhabiting a Russian-made disinformation space when it came to his views on the war in Ukraine. Trump later was telling an audience at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) Institute summit in Miami that Zelenskyy had done a terrible job, his country is shattered, and millions and millions of people have unnecessarily died. Trump in his speech in Miami was branding the leader a “dictator”. “A dictator without elections. Zelenskyy better move fast or he’s not going to have a country left. Gotta move. Gotta move fast cause that war’s going in the wrong direction”. “In the meantime, we’re successfully negotiating an end to the war with Russia. Something I’ll admit that only Trump is going to be able to do and the Trump administration – we’re going to be able to do it. I think Putin even admitted that,” Trump said. “Biden never tried. Europe has failed to bring peace and Zelenskyy probably wants to, maybe he wants to keep the gravy train going. I don’t know what’s the problem, but he has been able. He’s very upset,” he added. (Source: Al Jazeera – Qatar)

Feb 19, 2025, 4:47 PM  "Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and “TRUMP,” will never be able to settle. The United States has spent $200 Billion Dollars more than Europe, and Europe’s money is guaranteed, while the United States will get nothing back. Why didn’t Sleepy Biden demand Equalization, in that this War is far more important to Europe than it is to us - We have a big, beautiful Ocean as separation. On top of this, Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is “MISSING.” He refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden “like a fiddle.” A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left. In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only “TRUMP,” and the Trump Administration, can do. Biden never tried, Europe has failed to bring Peace, and Zelenskyy probably wants to keep the “gravy train” going. I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died – And so it continues….. (Source: Truth Social - U.S.)
by @realDonaldTrump

17:23 GMT, 19 February 2025  The US Air Force launched a hypersonic missile early today to demonstrate the nation's nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure, reliable and effective. The Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) exercise kicked off at 1am PT (5am ET) from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, just a few hours after Russia deployed its 'Yars' ICBM for combat training. The Air Force said today's launch was a scheduled exercise. The nuclear missile took off in the dead of night, traveling 15,000 miles per hour to a test range near Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean. It completed the 4,200-mile journey in about 22 minutes. /Photo, video/ (Source: Daily Mail - United Kingdom)

19/02/2025, Wednesday  Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, US President Trump said the Ukrainian leader should have never started the war, criticizing Zelenskyy after he expressed concern that Ukraine was not included in talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia. "But today I heard, 'oh, well, we weren't invited.' Well, you've been there for three years. You should have ended it in three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he said. Trump reiterated that it's a senseless war. „It should have never happened. Would have never happened if I was president. And it's a shame to see." Stating that he likes Zelenskyy personally, Trump said his leadership however has "allowed a war to go on that should have never even happened, even without the United States.” “Look, we had a president who was grossly incompetent. He had no idea what he was doing. He said some very stupid things, like going in for portions and all those things. He made a lot of bad statements, but he's grossly incompetent. And I think everyone knew that,” referring to former President Biden. In response to a question on whether he would support an election in Ukraine, Trump said there has not been an election under the Ukrainian president since the war. "We have a situation where we haven't had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law, essentially martial law in Ukraine, where the leader in Ukraine, I mean, I hate to say it, but he's down at a 4% approval rating, and where a country has been blown to smithereens, you got most of the cities are laying on their sides," said Trump. "You know, when they want a seat at the table, you could say the people have to, wouldn't the people of Ukraine have to say, like, you know, it's been a long time since we've had an election. That's not a Russia thing. That's something coming from me and coming from many other countries also," he said. "Ukraine is being just, just wiped out." "Look at what's happening to the cities. There's not even a building standing. It's massive. You talk about Gaza, I mean, it's literally, these cities look like Gaza. Actually, many have, percentage wise, more buildings knocked down than in Gaza. So, you know, people are tired of it," he added. US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia earlier in the day for the first high-level talks since Russia began its war on Ukraine in February 2022. The talks concluded with the delegations agreeing to hold additional rounds of discussions aimed at ending the war and improving bilateral ties. Trump also commented on the talks in Riyadh, saying he has emerged much more confident that a peace deal can be struck to end the war on Ukraine. The president described the discussions, which included Secretary of State Rubio, his Russian counterpart Lavrov and other senior officials, as very good, saying he believes the Kremlin wants to stop the savage barbarianism of the war. Earlier yesterday, Zelenskyy voiced dissatisfaction over Kyiv's lack of inclusion in the talks. ’We learned about it from the media’, he said, speaking alongside Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara. He emphasized the need for the European Union, Türkiye, the UK and the US to be involved in negotiations to secure guarantees for the Russia-Ukraine war. ’If these negotiations are fair, and if Ukraine, the US and Europe are at the table, these guarantees will be developed with the participation of all these countries. Of course, Türkiye is among them', he said. Trump further strongly supported the possibility that European countries deploy troops to Ukraine as part of any prospective deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine. "If they want to do that, that's great. I'm all for it. If they want to do that, I think that'd be fine," Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate. "If we have a peace deal, I think having troops over there, from the standpoint of Europe, we won't have to put any over there because we're very far away, but having troops over there would be fine. I would not object to it at all." Trump further claimed that Zelenskyy "said last week that he doesn't know where half of the money is that we gave him. Well, we gave them, I believe, $350 billion, but let's say it's something less than that. But it's, it's a lot." He was likely referring to an interview the Ukrainian president gave to The Associated Press, which was published on Feb. 2. "When I hear, and I heard before, and today we hear from the United States of America that America gave Ukraine hundreds of billions, 177, to be more precise. That's what the exact figure sounded like, which was supported or voted by the Congress, etc. Look, as the president of a warring country, I will tell you that we received just over 75," he said, according to a clip of the interview that has English-language captions. "That is, 100 billion of these 177 billion, or 200, some people even say, we have never received. And this is important, because we are talking about specific things," he said. ’Congress has allocated some $175 billion to aid Ukraine's war effort, but much of that sum goes towards domestic and other spending outside of Ukraine. A summary of the spending compiled by the Council on Foreign Relations think tank indicates that of the total sum, roughly $106 billion went directly to Ukraine’. (Source: Yeni Şafak / Anadolu Agency = Turkey)

Feb 19th, 2025  Bannon, the former White House adviser to President Trump warns Republicans the ‘Oligarchs’ will abandon them: ‘They’re with us – but only temporarily.’ Zuckerberg banned Trump from Facebook after the 2021 Capitol riot. He reinstated the president’s account on the platform in 2023 and appeared at his inauguration last month. Musk, meanwhile, spent at least $277 million to return Trump to the White House. “He wants to impose his freak experiments and play-act as God without any respect for the country’s history, values, or traditions,” he said in an interview with UnHerd this week. (Source: Mediaite - U.S.)

NATO

February 19, 2025  The Steadfast Dart 2025 drills comprise about 10,000 military personnel from nine nations as part of NATO’s new Allied Reaction Force. They are taking place over six weeks in Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Today’s combat exercises in Romania saw live-fire training and trench warfare drills. Britain leads the operation with 2,600 military personnel and 730 vehicles. The drills also include Romania, Bulgaria, France, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Spain and Turkey and involve 1,500 military vehicles, more than 20 aircraft and more than a dozen naval assets. (Source: AP - U.S.)

Space

19 February 2025  Our civilisation is changing. At about 03:30 GMT today, the sky across northern Europe was illuminated by an object zooming through the air in flames, caused by a Falcon 9 rocket manufactured by Musk's company SpaceXr, re-entering the Earth's atmosphere. There are reports of sightings in Denmark, Sweden and England. The rocket is used to transport people and payloads into the Earth's thermosphere, sometimes beyond. It is designed to be reusable. It was supposed to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere in a controlled manner and crash into the Pacific Ocean. Pieces of the rocket then crashed into Poland, measuring around 1.5m by 1m behind a warehouse in Komorniki. Experts say, may also have landed in western Ukraine. It was launched by SpaceX from the Vandenberg Air Force Base in California on 1 February. Space debris from rockets and satellites re-enter the Earth's atmosphere several times a month. This is the fourth incident recently with a SpaceX Falcon which is causing concern. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

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France
February 19, 2025  French President Macron painted a veneer of European unity by inviting a small number of handpicked European leaders to the Élysée Palace, while the Trump administration sidelined the continent by moving ahead with direct negotiations today with Russia on the war in Ukraine. Cracks in European consensus were hard to ignore. From Macron’s push for European-led defense to Keir Starmer’s “third way” diplomacy, Giorgia Meloni’s balancing act between Brussels and Washington, and Olaf Scholz’s resistance to breaking with NATO, Europe remains divided on its next move. At the same time, the debate over military spending is intensifying, as NATO officials stress the alliance’s 2% GDP target is now a baseline rather than a cap. By hosting the Monday summit in Parisian palace, Macron reinforced his bid to become the dominant voice on Ukraine and European security, with Germany’s Scholz politically weakened, the UK outside the EU and with Italy leaning toward Trump.    Macron has emerged as the bloc’s most vocal advocate for strategic autonomy. With a presidential mandate until 2027 and France’s nuclear arsenal making it European Union’s only atomic power, Macron has positioned himself as the only leader with both the ambition and authority to act. His proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, even in a limited training and logistics role, fits into his broader push for a continent less dependent on Washington. But Germany is resisting, key frontline EU nations were left out of the summit, and Trump’s unpredictability clouds Europe’s security outlook. Since his first term, Macron has always presented himself as the natural leader of liberals against ’nationalist populists’. One cannot say that this has worked well.” Macron is setting the stage. Is Europe ready to follow?    If Macron is stepping forward, Scholz is pushing back. The German Chancellor rejected Macron’s proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, calling it “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” given the ongoing war. He was “a little irritated” that peacekeeping forces were even being discussed “at the wrong time.” He insisted NATO - not an independent European force - must remain the foundation of security.     Notably absent from the Paris talks was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a close Trump ally and frequent critic of EU policies. Some observers saw it as a pointed message from Paris and its European allies about the limits of engagement with leaders seen as too closely aligned with Trump’s worldview.    Giorgia Meloni, the only leader of a major European economy to attend Trump’s inauguration in January, arrived late to the Paris summit and left without making a public statement. Meloni questioned why the summit was held in Paris rather than Brussels, the EU’s natural decision-making hub. She criticized the exclusion of frontline states such as the Baltic nations, Sweden, and Finland. Meloni pushed back against deploying European troops to Ukraine, calling it “the most complex and least effective option” - especially without firm security guarantees for Kyiv. She still engaged in the talks, bringing Italy’s concerns over long-term European military commitments to the table.    Keir Starmer is positioning himself as Europe’s key link to Washington - while maintaining a firm pro-Ukraine stance. The British prime minister is set to travel to Washington next week. While Trump moves toward de-escalation in Ukraine, Starmer is doubling down on support for Kyiv. Stating the UK is ready and willing to send British troops if necessary, this stance stands in contrast to Macron and Scholz’s more cautious approach. The UK is practically the only major ally that Trump hasn’t antagonized since his inauguration. Some analysts suggest Starmer is positioning himself as Trump’s European “whisperer.” (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat, heardquartered in London, United Kingdom, supported by the Saudi government)

19/02/2025  Benhamou, director of OPEWI, Europe's War Institute, says that Trump is aiming to open the Russian market to American companies, rather than support Ukraine and its allies. /Video/ (Source: France 24)

(Wednesday), February 19 2025  In Paris, France's President Macron was to host another meeting on Ukraine today. In comments yesterday to the French media after the U.S.-Russia talks, he suggested Trump could restart useful dialogue with Putin. In Brussels, EU diplomats said member states had today agreed a new round of sanctions against Russia, which will be formally adopted by EU foreign ministers on Monday, the third anniversary of Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. (Hürriyet Daily News, - Headquarters Istambul, Turkey)

European Commission
19 February 2025  Eropean Union agrees new Russia sanctions targeting metals and 73 ’shadow-fleet’ vessels. The package unveiled today largely sticks to the European Commission’s proposal. The newly sanctioned ships will be added to the already listed 79 others, mainly tankers, used by Russia to sell oil outside the price cap or ships that help in Moscow’s war effort such as transporting ammunition from North Korea. In addition to the tankers, the envoys agreed to prohibit transactions with ports and airports in Russia used to circumvent the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil. The package also expands the criteria the EU will be able to use to sanction owners and operators of the shadow fleet, including captains, as well as those providing support to the military. It also added 48 individuals and 35 entities to its sanctions list that included asset freezes and a travel ban. Sales of video game consoles, joysticks and flight simulators would also be restricted as they could be used by Russia’s military to control drones, an EU diplomat said today. Other bans included exports of chromium and certain chemicals as well as a service ban for oil and gas refineries. (Source: Brussels Signal - Brussels, Belgium / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Balcans
February 19, 2025 Geopolitically, the world has shifted on its axis since Trump’s return to power in the US. Trump’s call with Putin appeared to lay the groundwork for a prospective deal on Ukraine. Putin has already secured a diplomatic win by engaging directly with Trump. US Vice President Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) lambasted European leaders and signalled that Washington no longer aligns with ’their democratic’ values. Rather than meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, he opted for discussions with Weidel, leader of the 'far-right' Alternative for Germany (AfD). Another aspect of Washington’s new foreign policy is that the US is backing away from its role, since WW2, of being a critical part of Europe’s security and defence. Trump has previously suggested that he may not support defending Nato members who fail to meet their defence spending obligations. During his visit to Brussels, US Defence Secretary Hegseth urged European countries to take greater responsibility for their own security. Trump and his adherents are closer politically to Putin than to ’democratic EU leaders’. The shift in the US’s position has clear implications for Southeast Europe. Upended world order’ enables Russia’s return there if a new Trump-Putin axis takes shape. The US president appears unopposed to Russia holding onto its territorial gains from the invasion - which would set a precedent, including for Southeast Europe, where there remain multiple disputed borders since the breakup of Yugoslavia.    ’Albania and Kosovo’ lack the cultural ties to Russia that Slavic nation Serbia maintain.     In Bosnia, Republika Srpska’s president, the secessionist-minded Dodik, has long been one of Putin’s most vocal European supporters. He has now penning a tribute to the new US president on X (formerly Twitter), titled “A leader who brings peace and stability to the world.” Dodik and his SNSD party are likely to continue obstructing Bosnia’s EU accession efforts, which have been repeatedly stymied by political infighting. In recent weeks, the state-level ruling coalition has fractured, with tensions again rising between the SNSD and its partners.    Bulgaria, once dubbed the “16th Soviet republic”, is now a Nato and EU member. The survival prospects of Bulgaria’s right-left-populist coalition government are uncertain. The ’far-right’, pro-Russian party Vazrazhdane is now a force in parliament and is waiting in the wings to enter government should an opportunity arise. Gerb, the dominant party in recent Bulgarian parliaments, has thus far resisted an alliance with Vazrazhdane. Its history of political opportunism suggests that stance could shift.     Croatia’s newly re-elected president, Milanovic, whose pro-Russian stance ’is firm enough to get him labelled an enemy of Ukraine’, is backed by the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP). The ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has strong anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine stances.    In Kosovo’s recent general election, negative remarks about Prime Minister Albin Kurti by US special envoy Grenell just before the vote may have contributed to the loss of support for Kurti’s leftwing Vetevendosje party, which came in first place but lost its parliamentary majority.  Negotiations to form a new government remain ongoing.    Montenegro once known as Moscow on sea is an EU candidate country, and joined Nato.     North Macedonia’s Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, despite sharing ideological leanings with rightwing politicians like Orbán, used his speech at the Munich Security Conference to criticise the EU for failing to open accession talks. He derided the bloc’s merit-based approach to enlargement as a “fairy tale”, though his frustration appeared rooted in the slow progress of Skopje’s membership bid.    Romania’s links with Russia were weaker. Support for the far right is growing in Romania. With the rescheduled presidential election approaching in May, Georgescu tops the polls. He openly admires the Nazi-allied Iron Guard, which was in power in the interwar years. Figures like Georgescu and MEP Sosoaca openly espouse pro-Russian views.     Russia's remaining strongholds in the region were largely confined to Serbia where President Vucic carefully balances relations with Russia, China, the EU and the US. President Vucic says EU accession is the country’s foreign policy priority and Republika Srpska, the Serb entity within Bosnia & Herzegovina. Serbia’s Foreign Minister Duric spoke of Serbia’s commitment to its European path during his visit to Moscow this week while insisting that Belgrade would not neglect its “traditional friendships”, Russia. The visit coincided with the 17th anniversary of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence - a move backed by Western powers but never recognised by Serbia or Russia. Duric referenced “tectonic changes in the international community” that he suggested could create new opportunities to revisit the Kosovo issue.    In Slovenia, the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) has strong anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine stances.    Of the 11 countries in Southeast Europe, all but four are Nato members. Four states are EU members, and all the rest are candidates or aspiring candidates. Beyond the EU, the six aspiring members of the bloc in the Western Balkans have long been a geopolitical battleground. Moscow’s grip has weakened in recent years with Russia competing with Western powers for influence, as successive countries have secured EU candidate status and joined Nato. The new Washington administration’s reaching out to ’far-right’ and ’pro-Russian’ politicians in Europe has already emboldened its new allies in Southeast Europe, both within and outside the EU. This paves the way for the return of Russia to a region from which it has long been in retreat. (Source: bne IntelliNews – Berlin, Germany)

Baltics
19/02/2025  Russia and the US debate the future of the conflict in Ukraine. The Nordic-Baltic 8 (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden) have been some of Ukraine’s ’staunchest supporters’ since the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022. Biden travelled to Kyiv during the war and now Trump is ready to travel to Moscow - it’s quite a turn-around. Countries on the Baltic Sea are ramping up ’preparations for a military conflict amid fears that Russia is preparing for a future war with NATO’. The Baltic Sea, where eight EU and NATO countries share a maritime border with Russia, has already become a tension point, as several undersea telecom and power cables have been severed in recent months. Rumours swirled that the US under new President Trump „planned to pull its NATO troops from the Baltic States”. This week, these countries released a flurry of intelligence reports warning of Russian President Putin’s plans to expand military conflict further into Europe. „A weakening of the trans-Atlantic alliance now feels inevitable” - Danish intelligence have forecast that Russia would be ready to wage a ’large-scale war’ in Europe within five years, ’if it perceived NATO as weak’. Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned that Russia is expanding its armed forces in a way that ’prepares for a potential future war with NATO’. „Since the conflict escalated in 2022, Russia has paused planned military developments along its northern borders with NATO countries, such as more than doubling the 30,000 troops it has stationed along its border with Finland”. A Latvian intelligence report released this week assessed the threat of Russia engaging in a direct conflict with a NATO country in the next 12 months as “low” – as long as it’s military is still fighting in Ukraine. The concern is, especially if the war in Ukraine stops, Russia will focus very much on rebuilding its military organisation. According to Latvian intelligence, in this scenario Russia would be able to restore its military force enough to pose a significant threat to NATO ’within five years’. Russia is conducting espionage in the Baltic Sea, both in the technical space and also the virtual space, and it is conducting information operations in Latvia, Andžāns, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga, Latvia says. Russia wants to achieve the objectives which it has been pursuing systematically since the early 2000s expanding Russia’s sphere of influence and undermining the US as a dominant international force, especially in Europe, Zysk adds. ’They are very expansive ambitions, and they indicate that Russia is preparing for a large-scale confrontation,’he said. Hybrid war tactics aiming to destabilise societies and spread discord add to a sense that a form of conflict with Russia has already begun. Latvia’s installation of defence infrastructure is including anti-tank obstacles along its borders with Russia and Belarus, and similar measures were in Finland and Estonia – all EU and NATO members that share land borders with Russia. Experts, and politicians including Latvia’s president, have accused Russia of using non-military tactics to wage a "hybrid war. In the Latvian capital of Riga, a Molotov cocktail was thrown inside the Latvian Occupation Museum, which documents the Nationalist and Soviet occupations. Looking to the future, ’Russia is certainly going to use political, economic and informational means to influence politics, polarize debates and create chaos’, Zysk adds. ’And I don't see any reason why Russia would not use military means, under certain circumstances. It has proven time and time again that it is willing to do that.’ In Lithuania, the government has reintroduced military conscription, ’doubled the size of its armed forces and ramped up defence spending to 3.45% of GDP’. In a bid to prevent Russia weaponising the electricity grid against them, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania last week connected to the European power grid, severing Soviet-era links with Russia's network. (Source: France 24)

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Europe

Bulgaria
18.02.2025  The US Embassy in Sofia and Bulgaria’s delegation to NATO sent questions to the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry asking which countries could contribute to guarantees for Kyiv, whether they were ready to send soldiers to Ukraine as part of a peaceful solution to the conflict, and what the size of any European-led force should be. The ministry said that any decision to send soldiers to Ukraine is entirely within the jurisdiction of parliament. Bulgarian President Radev said today that he strongly opposes his nation sending troops to Ukraine in any form. "As the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, I am categorically against Bulgaria sending soldiers to Ukraine in any form. I expect the government and the National Assembly to state clearly and unequivocally that Bulgaria will not send troops." Radev said Bulgaria has been against participating in this war from the beginning. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

France
(Tuesday), 18.02.2025  Too early to discuss sending troops to Ukraine, French foreign minister Barrot said after an emergency summit hosted by French President Macron in Paris. ‘We will continue to increase the cost of war for Putin,’ he added. It is too early to say what would be the guarantees, he told. Barrot announced that Europe would be imposing a new set of sanctions next Monday. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

(18 February 2025)  Long shadows over the stability of this continent - Europe's leaders divided over their tactics with Trump. Europe was - it still is - smarting at being sidelined. The head of the West's defence alliance Nato, European Union chiefs and leaders of Europe's most influential military nations scrambled together at speed, held emergency talks in Paris to discuss the war in Ukraine. To impress Trump, to elbow themselves a seat at the negotiating table at the peace talks he plans with Russia's Putin to discuss the future of Ukraine. Yes, they say they'll spend more on their own defence, ’as Trump demands’. Despite domestic concerns about limited government budgets and a cost of living crisis. The Paris meeting even discussed the possibility of sending European troops to Ukraine to oversee an eventual ceasefire - unthinkable even a few weeks ago for Europe. That's what the US president wants. ’Those leaders in Paris failed to deliver a strong, united, sum-it-up-in-a-line-tweet response, that might have made the impatient businessman-cum-US president sit up and really take notice’. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisted that there must be equal division between the US and Europe on responsibilities in Ukraine. He is far from alone amongst European leaders, who suspect Trump is in a hurry to wash his hands of Ukraine and pivot his attention elsewhere. Perhaps China? They worry too that Europe may now need to defend itself against him and his policies. The UK prime minister is openly keen to use the 'special relationship' the UK hopes it still has with Washington ’as a bridge between Europe and the US’. Sir Keir hopes to grab a window of opportunity to press Europe's case when he heads to Washington for a meeting of his own with the US president next week. The US must stay by its allies' side, the prime minister has declared. If it doesn't, Europe's leaders will have to keep meeting untill they can agree a way forward for Ukraine and their common security. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

February 18, 2025  Three hours of emergency talks in Paris without a common view 'on possible peacekeeping troops' - an informal meeting of leaders from some European Union nations and the United Kingdom. They react on response to US criticism of its NATO allies after last week top U.S. officials from the Trump administration, on their first visit to Europe, left the impression that Washington was ready to embrace the Kremlin while it cold-shouldered many of its European allies. Vice President Vance and Defense Secretary Hegseth in a flurry of speeches questioned both Europe’s security commitments and its fundamental democratic principles. Moscow and Washington said there was no role for Europe in the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. “I don’t know what they have to do at the negotiations table,” Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said as he arrived in Saudi Arabia for talks with U.S. officials. Gen. Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, said yesterday he didn’t think it was “reasonable and feasible to have everybody sitting at the table.” “We know how that can turn out and that has been our point, is keeping it clean and fast as we can,” he told in Brussels, where he briefed the 31 U.S. allies in NATO, along with EU officials, before heading to Kyiv for talks tomorrow with Zelenskyy. Shortly before the meeting in Paris, Macron spoke by phone with Trump - a 20-minute discussion. Highlighting the inconsistencies among many nations about potential troop contributions, Scholz said talk of boots on the ground was “premature.” Starmer will travel to Washington next week to discuss with Trump. Macron - who has long championed a stronger European defense - said he spoke to Zelenskyy following the meeting.  (Source: AP – U.S.)

Germany
18/02/2025  A guide to Germany's 'colour-coded' party politics ahead of key election. Every German party is traditionally associated with a colour. Germany's main parties, their colours, leaders and what they stand for:    Red: Social Democratic Party (SPD), the centre-left party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, 66 is Germany's oldest with origins in the mid-1800s. The SPD prides itself on its principled opposition to the Nazis before it was banned and its members exiled. Prominent former SPD chancellors include Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schroeder. SPD’s key demands are fair wages, pensions and social benefits. Party lore says that dialogue with Moscow, rather than confrontation, helped end the Cold War.   Black: Christian Democratic Union (CDU, Germany's main conservative party, now led by former corporate lawyer Merz, 69, prioritises boosting the economy, law and order and traditional social values. Well-known former CDU chancellors include Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl, dubbed the father of Germany's 1990 reunification. Merz has promised to steer the party back to its right-wing roots, away from the more centrist course charted by former chancellor Angela Merkel. He has vowed to strongly restrict irregular immigration and perhaps bring back nuclear energy, phased out under Merkel. CDU is in a permanent alliance with Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) led by Soeder.   Yellow: Free Democratic Party (FDP) promotes liberal economic policies and small government. FDP ’s leader, former finance minister Lindner, 46, provoked government crisis and Scholz fired him on November 6. FDP has had a key role in building and bringing down governments as Germany's main third party. In 1982 the FDP switched sides, bringing down Schmidt, who was replaced by Kohl. It sees itself as a watchdog against government overreach, bureaucracy and red tape.The FDP is sometimes mocked as the party of the rich.    Green: Alliance 90/The Greens . The party emerged out of the environmental, anti-nuclear and peace protest movement of the 1970s. Vice Chancellor Habeck, 55, is the top election candidate of the Greens. The first Green MPs in Bundestag showed up in knitted pullovers and put their feet on the benches in the early 1980s. The current alliance was built in 1993 with activist groups from the formerly East Germany. The party of Foreign Minister Baerbock advocates strong military support for Ukraine against Russia.    Blue: Alternative for Germany (AfD). The ’far-right’ party started off a decade ago as Eurosceptic but has since embraced a virulent anti-immigration agenda. With its top candidate Weidel, 46, the AfD has been polling at 20 percent, with most of its support in the east. AfD railed against Merkel's 2015 green light to allow in more than a million migrants, many from war-torn Syria. AfD politicians tend to doubt climate change, hold ’pro-Moscow’ positions and support Trump whose ally Musk has strongly backed the party. Some AfD key figures have used Nazi-era phrases, and ’the domestic security service consider parts of the party as an extremist group, fuelling calls to ban it’. Other parties have committed to an anti-AfD ’firewall’, pledged not to cooperate with it. Merz breached this in late January to pass a motion calling for an immigration crackdown.   Violet: Linke and Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).’Hard-left’ politician Wagenknecht, 55, left the Die Linke party to form a party a year ago named after herself. She labels the party left-wing conservative - pro-poor and sceptical of immigration. Wagenknecht, who grew up in East, promotes anti-capitalist views and opposes NATO and US bases in Germany. BSW, after strong regional election gains, is hovering around five percent again, while the Linke has gained support among young people.    Scholz's collapsed red-yellow-green coalition was dubbed the "traffic light" government. In 2017 Germany almost got a black-yellow-green "Jamaica" coalition, before the FDP pulled out of talks. Polling suggests Germany could next be headed for a CDU-led "black-red" grand coalition with the SPD. If the FDP were to join in, their colours would match the national standard, creating a "Germany" coalition. If instead the Greens joined, this would lead to a black-red-green "Kenya" coalition. Also seen at the state level before, but highly unlikely at the national level, is a black-red-violet alliance of the CDU, SPD and BSW, dubbed the "blackberry". (Source: France24 / AFP = France)

18 February 2025  US and Russian officials have today held the first of peace talks in Saudi Arabia, forcing European countries to determine their role as a matter of urgency. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said ‘European nations must step up’ which also means ’being ready to send British troops if necessary’. ’France suggested assembling a ‘reassurance’ force of up to 30,000 troops behind a future peace line in Ukraine to which it would contribute up to 10,000 men and women’. Scholz left the meeting visibly annoyed, telling reporters that such debates were „premature” and „highly inappropriate”. Three years ago, he promised a turning point for Germany. A special fund of €100 billion was made available to boost the country’s depleted military, and Berlin pledged to spend over 2 per cent of its GDP on defence annually. If he won unexpectedly the German elections this Sunday, Scholz’s strategy would be to borrow more money to give to Ukraine. Germany is indeed spending a lot of money on reviving its dilapidated Bundeswehr and has become Ukraine’s second-largest aid provider. But Scholz has never put credible conviction behind the idea that his country stands ready ’to defend Europe from Russian aggression’. The Zeitendwende has been largely about money, not a genuine change in attitude. He has previously ruled out sending German troops. When ’the Green Foreign Minister Baerbock suggested in December to commit German troops to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine’, his response was to criticise her as „irresponsible” because nobody was asking this question at the moment. There would certainly be vocal opposition to German boots standing ready against Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil. Historical alarm bells would ring loud in German ears and trigger demonstrations. When one of Scholz’s SPD predecessors, Helmut Schmidt, ’allowed more American nuclear weapons to be stationed in Germany' in 1979, this triggered huge peace protests for years. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in 1983 when a young Olaf Scholz wrote essays about what he saw as an aggressive-imperialist Nato strategy. No German chancellor would have an easy time dragging the country out of its comforting conviction that it would never have to be war-ready again. ’Pandering’ to platonic ideals of pacifism are latent in German society due to the guilt and trauma of two world wars. Such moves are part of his cultivated image of ‘Besonnenheit’ – ‘prudence’, which in practice translates into drip-feeding aid (albeit significant amounts) into Ukraine while knowingly giving the impression that Germany would never go beyond that. Trump’s push for a peace deal will require a clear stance from Germany very soon. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which currently polls in second place prefers a lenient approach towards Russia with which it wants to restore ‘undisturbed trade’. Scholz recently blocked a €3 billion boost to military aid for Ukraine proposed by the Foreign Ministry. 'Merz is the man likely to succeed him'. It was his conservative CDU/CSU that rebuilt the (West) German military after the second world war as the front line of Nato’s deterrence against the Soviet Union. Merz has said he wants to ensure that Germany can spend 2 per cent of GDP on it long-term and then look at whether this can be boosted further. Whether the untested Merz will show more conviction and determination than his predecessor remains to be seen. At the Munich Security Conference this weekend, Merz also said: ‘I fully agree with all those who are demanding more leadership from Germany.’ For much of the Cold War, West Germany spent between 3 and 5 per cent of its GDP on defence, successfully contributing to keeping the peace for decades of high tension. Merz has avoided making Ukraine a major campaign topic. Merz will likely end up in a coalition with either the Greens or the SPD, possibly both. The Greens have been the most hawkish on defence. Their chancellor candidate Habeck has suggested boosting spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP. In the SPD, Scholz might well step down 'in favour of his current defence minister Pistorius, who didn’t rule out Bundeswehr troops in Ukraine when asked in December'. Polls suggest that might put his party in third place with as little as 15 per cent of the vote. So there is political headroom for Merz on this issue. ’Half of Germans said in a poll that they would be in favour of Bundeswehr contributions to a peace force in Ukraine. That’s almost the same as the proportion of people in the UK according to a recent survey’ Germany’s next chancellor has a real opportunity ’to do what Scholz promised and never delivered: to create a strong, fighting-fit Germany in the centre of Europe to help deter Russian aggression'. (Source: The Spectator, a weekly news magazine – United Kingdom)
by Hoyer, an Anglo-German historian. Her latest book is Beyond the Wall: East Germany, 1949-1990.

European Union
18.02.2025  Stating that the EU should take its policy in areas such as security and sanctions into its own hands in the era of US President Trump, EU commissioner for economic affairs Dombrovskis said before a meeting of EU member state finance ministers in Brussels: 'Work is underway to prepare the 16th sanctions package against Russia'. 'We are currently working on ways to provide more flexibility for defense spending under the EU's financial rules and options for providing additional funding for defense at the EU level,' he said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Russia
Feb 18, 2025  Seven explosive-packed drones yesterday hit a pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries Kazakh oil across southern Russia for export via the Black Sea, including to western Europe. The Ukrainian drone attack on the major oil export pipeline could reduce export volumes by almost a third over the next two months, Transneft, Russia's state controlled pipeline operator said today. The 1,500-kilometre pipeline is owned by a consortium in which the Russian and Kazakh governments as well as Western energy majors Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell hold stakes. It carries around 80 percent of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports and about one percent of total global supply. Three-quarters of the 63 million tonnes that flowed through the pipeline last year were pumped by Western energy companies, Transneft said today. Heavily reliant on Russian infrastructure, the Central Asian Kazakh nation has stepped up efforts to diversify its energy export routes amid the Ukraine offensive. Kyiv has targeted Russia's energy infrastructure throughout the three-year conflict, seeking to hit sites it says supply fuel to Moscow's army or provides funds to support its offensive. (Source:Barron's - U.S. / Agence France-Presse)

18 February 2025  Putin 'ready to meet Zelenskyy', Moscow says as Russia-US peace talks underway - but Zelenskyy’s legitimacy can be questioned. Russia would not stand in the way of Kyiv joining the European Union, Peskov continued. /Photo/ (Source: LBC - United Kingdom)

Europe
18 Feb 2025  First a call, now a meeting. The EU is trying to find its way to a table. Trump’s call with President Putin last week came as an unwelcome shock to US allies in Europe. Top American and Russian diplomats met in Saudi Arabia today. It marks a significant turnaround in US policy. Ukrainian and other European officials were notably absent from the meeting. The US has signalled it may support Russia keeping territory it has captured and denying NATO membership to Ukraine. It would want European and other non-US troops to take responsibility for monitoring any deal, with the US weighing how much support it would offer. Zelenskyy, who was visiting his counterpart in Turkey at the time of Russian-US talks, said he did not know ahead of time that the Saudi meeting was scheduled. European leaders are starting to realise that they have a problem. Trump is doing geopolitics in a hyper-transactional way. Kellogg, Trump's Ukraine envoy who did not attend the Saudi gathering, has assured European and Ukrainian officials that no one will impose a deal on Ukraine. He urged European counterparts get involved by coming up with concrete proposals and ’investing more in defence'. The EU has to agree with 27, Europe cannot speak credibly with one voice. A day ahead of the US-Russian meeting, French President Macron convened an emergency summit in Paris with six EU member states, EU officials and the United Kingdom. It ended inconclusively, with no consensus on what European countries might substantively contribute. The idea of deploying European troops to Ukraine has proven divisive. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed some support, along with Sweden and Denmark. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected boots on the ground. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk did, too. There was more agreement on following Poland's lead on defence spending. European Commission President ’der Leyen suggested the EU could temporarily waive strict budget rules to allow for it’. "Macron and Tusk have disagreements over the EU's role in a post-war Ukraine". Adding to the European disunity was criticism of how few European countries Macron invited. The Baltics, despite their geographic proximity to Russia and robust Ukraine policy, were not present. EU members with a mixed record confronting Russia, such as Hungary, were also absent. (Source: The Parliament Magazine – a monthy magazine, based in Brussels, Belgium, owned by a British company, United Kingdom)
by Van Rensbergen

Africa

Egypt
February 18, 2025  An extraordinary Arab League meeting on Gaza, initially set for next week, has been postponed to March 4, host Egypt said today. The new date was agreed with Arab League members as part of substantive and logistical preparations for the summit. (Source: Business Recorder - Pakistan)

Asia

Saudi Arabia
Tue 18 Feb 2025  Zelensky said he had postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia planned for tomorrow and that talks on how to end the war with Russia could not be held behind Ukraine's back. (Source: Irish Independent - Ireland)

18 February 2025  A stern-faced US Secretary of State Rubio, in office for less than a month, sat across from Lavrov, who has been Russia's foreign minister for more than two decades. The superpowers met in Saudi Arabia without Kyiv or the EU. Isolated by the West for three years, Russia is hoping for a "restoration" of ties with the US and a comeback to the international arena. The continent's defences were raised as part of the talks in Riyadh, Russia told the United States today that settling the war in Ukraine required a reorganisation of Europe's defence agreements. Before invading Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has long called for the withdrawal of NATO forces from and eastern Europe, viewing the alliance as an existential threat on its flank. "A lasting and long-term viable resolution is impossible without a comprehensive consideration of security issues on the continent," Kremlin spokesman Peskov told today. Europe, alarmed by Trump's overhaul of US policy on Russia, fears Washington re-write the continent's security arrangement in a Cold War-style deal between superpowers. European leaders held an emergency meeting in Paris a day earlier, but struggled to put on a united front. "I don't think that people should view this as something that is about details or moving forward in some kind of a negotiation," US State Department spokesperson Bruce said. Russia's Ushakov told state media the talks would discuss "how to start negotiations on Ukraine". The sides will also discuss a possible Putin-Trump summit. Trump has said he wants to end the war in Ukraine, but has thus far presented no concrete plan. The US has urged both sides that concessions will have to be made if any peace talks materialise. Russia on the eve of the summit said there cannot be even a "thought" on it giving up territory seized from Ukraine. Speeches by Trump's officials were indicating Washington does not see Moscow as a threat. The EU said it still wants to "partner" with the US on any truce talks. Trump's administration has given no clear answer on whether the EU would take part and Moscow has said it sees no point in Europe having a seat at the table. ’Financially and militarily, Europe has brought more to the table than anyone else’, the president of the European Commission, der Leyen, said on social media. ’We want to partner with the US to deliver a just and lasting peace for Ukraine’. Key Russian ally China welcomed "efforts towards peace" today. "At the same time, we hope that all parties and stakeholders can participate," foreign ministry spokesman Guo said. Russia has presented cautious optimism on the talks. The Kremlin said today that Ukraine had the right to join the European Union, but not the NATO military alliance. It also said Putin was ready to negotiate with Zelensky "if necessary", questioning his "legitimacy". Zelensky is due in Saudi Arabia tomorrow, though said he does not plan to meet with US or Russian officials. Moscow negotiator Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund told Russian state TV from Riyadh today he expects progress in talks on the economic front -- seeking the removal of Western sanctions -- in the next two-three months. (Source: Times of Malta / AFP - France)

2025. febr. 18.  “The discussion was very positive,” the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Dmitriev, said in a brief interview at the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh, where the talks are being held. /Video/ (Source: The Semafor, a news website, its organization is based in New York City / X = U.S.)

18 Feb 2025 Ready to be carved up? Ukraine on the surgeon's operating table. Top US and Russian diplomats were meeting in Saudi Arabia. Following the meeting, it was confirmed US and Russia have agreed to appoint high level teams to begin working on ending the war in Ukraine, according to the US State Department. They said both countries need to "establish a consultation mechanism to address irritants to our bilateral relationship with the objective of taking steps necessary to normalise the operation of our respective diplomatic missions." The countries look to strike a deal which benefits them economically. President Trump is after material gains for the US – especially Ukraine’s mineral resources. Currently, China dominates supply chains of rare earth metals - used in military technologies for example. China is the US’ ultimate target, the global context of the talks with Russia. Trump says he wants at least $500 billion worth of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, around half of which actually lie in territories currently occupied by Russia. In return, Trump offers Ukraine security. Hence, the talks with Russia, to try and do a ‘deal, Head of Department of International Politics at City, University of London, Professor Parmar said. "Given what we know about the Trump administration’s material goals, hence desire to grab Greenland, Panama, Canada, etc – and Trump’s deal-maker personality – the war in Ukraine has little to do with defending democracy or sovereignty: it is a struggle for resources worth hundreds of billions of dollars, if not more. Trump also wants Ukraine to buy more US liquid natural gas". Mr Indeerjet added: "Ukraine increasingly resembles a body on the US, EU and Russian surgeon’s operating table”. This deal is likely to exclude or subordinate Europeans’ interests in the same minerals. As the EU foreign policy head, Kallas, noted recently, the EU has poured large amounts of aid into Ukraine and does not want to see Russia taking Ukrainian territories, the US securing natural resources, and Europe paying the bill. (Mirror – United Kingdom)

2/18/2025  The talks in Saudi Arabia saw the U.S. and Russian sides broadly agree on three key objectives, according to reports: the establishment of closer relations and economic cooperation, the formation of a high-level team to support Ukraine peace talks, and to restore staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow. In a statement, Rubio stressed that the talks marked the beginning of a conversation, and more work needs to be done. Lavrov seemed to echo Rubio’s sentiment as he said that “the conversation was very useful… We not only listened, but also heard each other.” United States military volunteers - former U.S. military servicemembers - fighting on Kyiv’s side for nearly three years, have branded President Trump over his private phone call with President Putin the previous week, Knewz.com has learned. (Source: MSN / Knewz = U.S.)

18/02/2025  US delegation addresses reporters following talks with Russian delegation. /18 min Video/ (Source: France 24)

(18 February 2025)  Three Americans and three Russians made up the two teams at the talks in Saudi Arabia that have underscored an end to Western isolation of Moscow. The men described the meeting as preparing the groundwork for broader "high-level" talks. They agreed to reset their countries' diplomatic relations.    US Secretary of State Rubio had already spoken to his veteran Russian counterpart Lavrov over the phone three days before the talks took place. He said after today's meeting he was convinced Russia was ready for a "serious process" to end the war and the two countries would resume diplomatic relations. Rubio has long sought an end to the war in Ukraine and voted against a $6bn US military aid package in 2024. He sees China as America's biggest adversary and believes Beijing is happy for the US to be ’bogged down in Europe’. Rubio has cautioned that "one meeting is not going to solve [the war]". He made clear that both Ukraine and Europe will have to be involved too: "No-one is being sidelined here."   National Security Adviser Waltz spoke after the talks of pushing for a permanent, not a temporary end to the war. He suggested at the weekend that US deserves "some type of payback" for the billions it has paid out to Ukraine since it began. He thinks Ukraine should share its mineral wealth in partnership with the US "in terms of their rare earths, their natural resources, and their oil and gas". Waltz believe that Europeans have to ’own this conflict’ in terms of future security guarantees.    Witkoff was the man Trump chose to send to Moscow only last week for talks with Putin. Ostensibly, he's Trump's Middle East envoy, but clearly the president's former golf partner is far more significant than that and he is being seen as the president's loyal and favoured dealmaker. He was part of talks on forging Israel's ceasefire with Hamas but was then sent to Russia to help with the exchange of US prisoner Fogel for a Russian, Vinnik, in jail in America.    Russia chose two top diplomats for this initial exchange of views. Both are veterans and know the US well: Putin foreign policy adviser Ushakov and Lavrov, foreign minister since 2004.    It has been up to Lavrov to convey Moscow's message. Explaining that the US delegation had proposed a halt to attacks on energy facilities, Lavrov said Russia had never targeted Ukraine's civilian supply. A cruel denial of the truth. When he took part in doomed ceasefire talks with Ukraine shortly after the full-scale war began, Lavrov even denied there had been an invasion.   As former ambassador to the US, 77-year-old Ushakov has a good idea of how to talk to Washington. Within days of Trump's return to the White House he made clear Russia was ready for talks if the US sent "relevant signals". Days before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he accused the Biden administration of peak ’hysteria’ in suggesting Russian troops were preparing to go to war.   A third Russian was not in the room at that point, but Dmitriev's presence in the delegation is a mark of just how important Putin sees the economic potential of the Saudi talks. Dmitriev, 49, is head of Russia's Direct Investment Fund and later joined his colleagues to discuss economic relations. "We also need to make joint projects, including, for example, in the Arctic Region, and in other areas," he told. Dmitriev played a key role in working with Witkoff in the prisoner exchange that preceded Trump's phone-call with Putin last week, along with Saudi Arabia's Salman. Dmitriev has close connections to Putin's family - his wife is close to one of Putin's daughters. Few Russians know America's finance and business sector better than Dmitriev, as a former investment banker at Goldman Sachs and a graduate of Harvard Business School. Although he is adamant Russia's economy is doing well, 43% of the budget is going on the war and internal security, inflation is just under 10% and interest rates have hit 21%.   The two Saudi hosts chaired the start of the meeting but did not stay in the room.   Foreign Minister Prince Farhan has played an active role as top Saudi diplomat this year, visiting Lebanon and Europe and hosting an international meeting aimed at lifting sanctions on Syria.   Saudi national security adviser Aiban has also played a prominent part in promoting Saudi ties with Syria's new leader Sharaa. Although Crown Prince Salman takes the lead on foreign policy, these two men are regularly by his side. (Source: BBC – United Kingdom)

18 February 2025 4:08 pm   Earlier this month, Trump disrupted U.S. policy on Ukraine and Russia by stating that he and Putin had reached an agreement to start talks on ending the conflict. Senior Russian and U.S. officials gathered in Saudi Arabia today negotiating a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine - another essential step by the Trump administration to reverse US policy on isolating Russia. It is meant to pave the way for a meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Putin's foreign affairs adviser Ushakov arrived in the Saudi capital yesterday night. Ushakov said the talks would be purely bilateral and would not include Ukrainian officials. “Only together can Russia and the US tackle numerous global challenges, resolve international conflicts, and provide solutions," Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, whom the Kremlin indicated might participate in the meeting, emphasized the significance of the gathering before the discussions. Dmitriev mentioned that he and his team would concentrate on economic matters during the talks. The Saudi-owned satellite channel Al Arabiya, citing the Russian delegation, described Moscow's priority as “real normalization with Washington”. US Secretary of State Rubio, National Security Adviser Waltz, and Special Envoy Witkoff will meet the Russian delegation. Writing in the London-based but Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq Al Awsat, journalist Dhaidi described the summit as a major step on the international political chess arena, revealing the status of Saudi Arabia and its positive influence. In the neighboring United Arab Emirates, the prince also has maintained close relations with Russia throughout its war on Ukraine, both through the OPEC+ oil cartel and diplomatically as well. The recent US diplomatic blitz on the war has sent Kyiv and key allies scrambling to ensure a seat at the table amid concerns that Washington and Moscow could press ahead with a deal that won't be favourable to them. Zelenskyy will likely travel to Saudi Arabia later this week. France convened an urgent meeting of some European Union nations and the UK yesterday to determine how to react. (Source: Outlook India, „with AP inputs”)

Turkey
18.02.2025  Turkish President Erdogan holds talks with Ukrainian counterpart in Ankara - meeting at the invitation of Erdogan. /Photo/ (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

North America

Canada
18 February 2025  The moment Delta plane crash lands and flips over on icy runway in near-disaster as all 80 passengers survive. /Video/ (Source: Daily Mail - United Kingdom)

United States
Feb 18, 2025  White House has recently said that Musk does not have “formal authority to make government decisions” and by no means a formal employee of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Yesterday, a filing by Fisher, Director of the Office of Administration, clarified that "Mr Musk is an employee of the White House... a non-career Special Government Employee" and retains the title of "Senior Advisor to the President." "Like any other senior advisor to the President, Mr. Musk has no actual or formal authority to make government decisions himself," Fisher said. "The U.S. DOGE Service is part of the Executive Office of the President. The U.S. DOGE Service Temporary Organization exists within the U.S. DOGE Service. Neither is part of the Office of the White House," Fisher continued. "Mr Musk is an employee of the White House Office. He is not an employee of the U.S. DOGE Service or the U.S. DOGE Service Temporary Organization. Mr. Musk is not the Temporary Administrator," Fisher added. (Source: Hindustan Times - India; "With inputs from AFP" - France)

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China
February, (17) 2025  In December, Chinese state media announced that the government had approved a massive hydropower project in the lower reaches of the world’s highest river, “Yarlung Tsangpo” - the Tibetan name for the river also known as the Brahmaputra in India - at the remote “Great Bend” of the river. China’s push for mega dams is showcasing the country’s engineering capabilities and renewable energy ambitions. The continued protests in Tibet against China’s over-damming of rivers that originate in the Tibetan glaciers, as well as protests from downstream countries like India and Bangladesh, have put the spotlight on China’s true aims. The proposed Medog Hydropower Station in Tibet represents a monumental leap in China’s ambition to harness water resources. The project is expected to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. It is projected to cost upwards of $137 billion, which underscores China’s determination to assert itself as a leader in renewable energy infrastructure, to reduce China’s dependence on coal-fired thermal power plants. The dam is situated in the Indo-Tsangpo Suture Zone, a seismically active region of the Himalayas where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates converge. The project’s construction runs the risk of exacerbating geological instability, triggering landslides or earthquakes with potentially catastrophic consequences for local communities and downstream ecosystems. The Medog project, located in one of the rainiest parts of mainland, amplifies risks due to its reliance on unpredictable hydrological and geological conditions. The Yarlung Zangbo River, the lifeblood of many ecosystems in South Asia, could face unintended consequences of large-scale sediment disruption, reduced agricultural productivity, degradation, affecting not just local environments but also neighboring countries dependent on its waters. The loss of livelihoods, cultural heritage, and social cohesion of Medog County, with a population of around 14,000 can marginalize affected communities, creating long-term challenges. The Tibetan Plateau is warming at a rate nearly two times the global average, melting glaciers rapidly, destabilizing seasonal river flows, and increasing sedimentation risks in dam reservoirs. Water scarcity driven by glacial retreat could heighten cross-border tensions over resource access, particularly between India and China. China is challenging the “trans-Himalayan balance of power” via its infrastructure projects as well as financial and political clout in South Asia, primarily Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. In response to China’s infrastructure (damming) activities in the vicinity of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, India submitted its concerns to Beijing, to ensure that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas.” China claims that the latest project will allow it to achieve its stated objectives of reaching a carbon emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. China - in the same month as the announcement of the Medog Dam - created two new counties, one of which is contested by India since it falls within India’s Union Territory of Ladakh. The 2020 Galwan clash and China’s ongoing strategy of claiming territories in the Himalayas (e.g., the new standard map in 2023 and the China-Nepal boundary row in Humla in 2020) have almost permanently heightened tensions along China’s borders. Water security is increasingly intertwined with broader geopolitical rivalries. The Medog Dam grants China significant upstream control over the Brahmaputra, raising fears of strategic weaponization of water during conflicts, to influence downstream water availability, particularly during the dry season, potentially crippling agriculture and hydroelectric output in India and Bangladesh. The good news is that the recently concluded special representatives meeting has provided momentum for further strategic dialogue between India and China, including the sharing of data on transboundary rivers. China’s evolving Medog Dam “hydro-hegemony,” - control over shared water resources - is reminiscent of China’s activities along the Mekong River, where damming has curtailed flow to downstream nations, amplifying droughts and increasing dependency on Beijing for water management solutions. The failure of past deals to share adequate water data exacerbate existing challenges. China’s hydro-hegemony requires targeted strategies that address both geopolitical tensions and environmental concerns. Steps rooted in collaboration and pragmatism offer a way forward. The absence of robust transboundary water-sharing agreements exacerbates mistrust among nations. A formal transboundary water-sharing framework remains essential. Joint hydrological monitoring and sediment data-sharing could build trust. A participatory approach to infrastructure planning is vital, including local and indigenous voices in development decisions. The hope remains that the stakeholder countries will place ecological and regional stability above their domestic agendas. (Source: Institute for Security & Devekopment Policy – Sweden)
by Panda, the Head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) in Sweden, a Professor at the University of Warsaw;
Sarkar, an Associated Research Fellow at the ISDP in Sweden, a SIS Dean’s Awardee at the School of International Studies (SIS), American University, Washington, DC.

Gaza
17 Feb 2025 Drone footage shows destruction of north Gaza after 500 days of war. /Video/ (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

February 17, 2025  Middle East: Without a political solution, reconstruction will do little over the long term - Gaza, Syria, and the region’s next crisis (Source: Foreign Affairs - U.S.)
by Yahya

Kazakhstan
17 February 2025  Kazakhstan and Hungary are expanding the horizons - very good political, economic and cultural cooperation. Central Asia in the focus of the Hungarian companies to invest. (Source: Kazinform - International News Agency, based in Astana, Kazakhstan)

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Europe

Czechia
17.02.2025  Russia should not be expected to become “friendlier” and it will not be more predictable after the Ukraine war comes to an end, Czech Republic’s Chief of General Staff Rehka said in weekend remarks to Czech television. Rehka also pointed to the difficulty of achieving a resolution to the war in a way that prevents it from resurfacing in the future. He added that his country’s military hopes to boost its active and reserve members to 37,500 but admitted that this is “unrealistic” given demographic trends and past recruitment efforts. Under current plans, the Czech army is set to have 30,000 professional soldiers and 10,000 active reserve members by 2030. Currently, the army has some 23,600 soldiers, with around 1,000 added over the past five years. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

France
Mon, 17 FEB, 2025  Speaking last week, president Trump said he wanted to halve the US’s defence spending, especially on nuclear weapons. Hegseth, the US defence secretary, warned Nato defence ministers in Brussels that defending Europe was no longer a strategic priority. In a speech at the Munich security conference, he minimised the threat posed by Russia. Zelenskyy told the Munich conference it was time to create an army of Europe - ideas long promoted by Macron. Should Britain and France pool their nuclear weapons capabilities and create a Europe-wide defensive nuclear shield, extending French and UK nuclear guarantees to the whole of Europe ’to deter Putin’s Russia’, if the US reduces or withdraws its support? France’s president Macron called an emergency summit in Paris of European leaders. The meeting was expected to focus on Ukraine, its future defence, and Europe’s anticipated exclusion from US “peace talks” with Russia due later this week. An even bigger issue of the summit: how to better organise Europe’s collective defences in the context of reduced, unreliable or nonexistent US support. Germany’s defence minister Pistorius has predicted that Putin ’could attack at least one Nato country within the next five years’. ’Frontline Poland and the Baltic republics voice similar fears’. ’Nato’s chief, Rutte, has urged all 32 member states to expand defence spending’. ’Many, including Britain, appear poised to do so’. In a 2020 speech at the École de Guerre in Paris, Macron suggested a ’strategic dialogue with our European partners … on the role played by France’s nuclear deterrence in our collective security’. ’Macron repeated the offer in 2022 and again last year’. Its independent deterrent comprises about 290 warheads and operates separately from Nato. What Macron is saying, like Hollande and other French leaders before him, is that there exists a ’European dimension’ to France’s nuclear defence planning. If, for example, Berlin were threatened with nuclear destruction, that would be seen as a threat to Paris, too. French leaders have three main worries, an analysis published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) stated. Firstly, there is a ’high risk’ that Trump could withdraw from Nato, or at least significantly reduce US conventional forces in Europe. Secondly, „he may also reduce the number of US nuclear weapons currently deployed in Europe”, though not much evidence currently supports that prospect. Thirdly, a US president who ’loathes or dismisses’ many European countries is unlikely to risk American lives for Europe. This latter argument has circulated in France since the days of Gen de Gaulle: the US would go nuclear to save Boston but not Boulogne, Bratislava or Bognor Regis. Macron’s proposal raises complex questions. Who could order the actual use of ’Europeanised’ nuclear weapons? Who would pay for such a force, especially if necessarily modernised and enlarged? Would such a move accelerating US disengagement? The view from Germany is mixed. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and anti-nuclear parties such as the Greens strongly dislike the idea (as do French leftwing and far-right parties). But Merz, Scholz’s likely successor, is reportedly ’interested’. Weber, a leading German told last year that doubts about Trump meant ’it was time to take up Macron’s offer’. The ’conservative’ also urged the opening of a ’new chapter’ with London. The need for British involvement has also been raised by German politician Lindner. The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London ’be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security?’ Lindner wrote last year: ’When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions'. The IISS study raised similar issues. As the only other nuclear power in Europe, Britain is a natural partner for France in any exploration of how to strengthen European deterrence. [They] regularly exchange data about nuclear safety and security. The British and French nuclear arsenals combined come to around 520 warheads, numerically equivalent to China’s current deterrent force. This alone could send ’a stronger message to Russia’. Putin, who ’has threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine’, would view it as a provocation. Development of a joint UK-French nuclear umbrella, under the auspices of the European Nato allies and sidelining the US, is politically explosive for Starmer. It would raise questions about sovereign control, not least from the Eurosceptic right. It could be seen by many in Labour as fuelling nuclear weapons proliferation, bringing nuclear war closer. (Source: Irish Examiner - Ireland - / The Guardian - United Kingdom)

Russia
Feb 17, 2025  Russia launches 147 drones during overnight attack, Ukrainian military and officials says. The attacks damaged storage facilities and private residences. Ukraine's air force shot down 83 drones and 59 more did not reach their targets likely due to electronic countermeasures. It did not specify what happened to the remaining five drones. The drone attack on Kyiv region caused fire at an industrial facility and damaged four private residences. In Kharkiv region, the drones damaged three storage facilities of an enterprise, an administrative building and windows in 14 residential homes. Three women experienced acute stress reactions during the attack. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore  / Reuters - United Kingdom)

United Kingdom
Monday 17 February 2025  Number 10 said today it has not ruled out a vote in Parliament about a future decision to put peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, which the PM said he was open to. Starmer has said repeatedly in recent days Ukraine's path to Nato membership is 'irreversible'. (Source: ITV News, news programmes on the British news television channel of ITV)

Europe
17/02/2025  „The White House has sent a questionnaire to European allies asking, among other things, if they would be willing to deploy peacekeeping soldiers to the war-torn nation”. 'The Trump administration has made it clear it expects Europe to assume the overwhelming share of future support for Ukraine, both military and financial. The fast pace of negotiations has put Europe on edge and prompted a flurry of diplomatic activity to showcase political unity and renewed determination. The continent has signalled its readiness to take on a bigger role while maintaining the Western front that was erected in the early hours of the invasion. An informal summit in Paris among European leaders concluded without any concrete announcement, as the idea of deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine remains highly divisive. 'European leaders vowed today to continue their joint support for Ukraine in the face of Russia's invasion. They failed to provide any new security guarantees that could make a difference amid Trump's push to launch negotiations with Russia. French President Macron had previously voiced his openness to that scenario. Today, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer made it clear he was ready to do the same as long as America would provide a "backstop. ’I'm prepared to consider committing British forces on the ground alongside others if there’s a lasting peace agreement. But there must be a US backstop because a US security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again,’ Starmer said at the end of an emergency summit in Paris. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen cautioned there were a lot of questions that needed answers. How are the Americans going to view these questions?. 'Are they going to back up Europeans in case of boots on the ground?' Asked about peace talks, Frederiksen said a "ceasefire is not automatically peace and it's not automatically long-lasting peace" and urged European nations ’to step up their aid to Ukraine to put the country in the best possible position for future negotiations’. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was saying any discussion on peacekeepers was completely premature and highly inappropriate at the present moment, given the war still rages on with all its brutality. I'm even a little irritated by these debates, Scholz said after leaving the meeting. Scholz welcomed the prospect of peace talks but warned against imposing a dictated peace on Ukraine. He also stressed the need to maintain a united Western front against the Kremlin. There must be no division of security and responsibilities between Europe and the US, which means that NATO is based on the fact that we always act together and are at risk together and guarantee our security through this. That must not be called into question, Scholz told reporters. When asked if Spain would commit to boots on the ground, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said that "we still don't have the conditions for peace to start thinking about this model". Any security guarantees have to be a responsibility shared by all allies, he added. Prior to the meeting, Polish PM Donald Tusk had ruled out sending Polish soldiers to Ukraine as a part of a peacekeeping mission. 'Poland is NATO's leader in defence spending per GDP' and has received praise from the Trump administration. The meeting in Paris, hosted by Macron, was also attended by Italy's Giorgia Meloni, the Netherlands' Dick Schoof, der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, Costa, the president of the European Council, and Rutte, the secretary general of NATO. ’Today in Paris we reaffirmed that Ukraine deserves peace through strength'. 'Peace respectful of its independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, with strong security guarantees', der Leyen and Costa said in a coordinated message. ’Europe carries its full share of the military assistance to Ukraine'. 'At the same time, we need a surge in defence in Europe.’ The call between Trump and Putin last week, broke the West's three-year-long effort to isolate Putin - an exclusion from the diplomatic process. Kellogg, the US special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, later confirmed Europe would be consulted throughout the negotiations but would ultimately lack a seat at the table. Kellogg added he was working on "Trump time" and the American president expected to have a draft deal in a matter of "days and weeks." Lavrov, Russia's foreign affairs minister, who is under EU sanctions, is expected to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio tomorrow in Saudi Arabia. Rubio will be joined by Waltz, the national security adviser, and Witkoff, the Middle East envoy. Zelenskyy is scheduled to travel to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. Trump's latest actions, and the recent remarks by his Secretary of Defence, Hegseth, indicate America, with focus on China and the border with Mexico, no longer sees Europe as a priority. Last week, Hegseth said any peacekeeping mission deployed to Ukraine would be deprived of NATO's Article 5 of collective defence. /Photo/ (Source: Euronews - Headquartered Lyon, France)

17:21-17 February 2025 AD  European leaders were holding an emergency meeting in Paris today to discuss their role in Ukraine's future after the United States announced it would sit down with Russia to seek an end to the three-year war. Here is what some have said ahead of the meeting on the issue of sending peacekeeping troops into Ukraine:    Denmark: Ahead of the Paris meeting, Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said: 'We need to increase military support to Ukraine, we need to produce more, and we need to do it faster. 'And then we must remove the restrictions on the Ukrainians' use of weapons, so that they can actually defend themselves against the Russians without having one arm twisted around their back'. A ceasefire must not lead to Russian rearmament, which is replaced by new Russian attacks.   Germany: Asked if German troops could be deployed in a future peace mission in Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz stressed the importance of a strong Ukrainian army. This will be a great task for Europe, for the US and international alliance partners, Scholz said. On the issue of European ground troops, a defense ministry spokesperson said: 'If the framework is given, Germany will not shy away.'   'Poland will support Ukraine as it has done so far, organizationally, in accordance with our financial capabilities, in terms of humanitarian and military aid, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters before boarding a plane to Paris. "We do not plan to send Polish soldiers to the territory of Ukraine. 'We will ... give logistical and political support to the countries that will possibly want to provide such guarantees in the future, such physical guarantees.   Spain: "It is too early at this time to speak about deploying troops to Ukraine as there is no peace at the moment," Spain's Foreign Minister Albares told. "Today I'm convinced Putin will keep attacking and bombing Ukraine. So I do not see peace on the horizon at the moment.'   Sweden: 'There needs to be a very clear mandate for those forces and I don't think we can see that until we have come further in those negotiations, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told. 'But Sweden, we are normally a part of strengthening security in our part of the world, so I foresee us to be a part of that this time as well.'   The Netherlands: 'We understand Europe needs to play a role. It is logical that the Netherlands is considered, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof told reporters at the Munich Security Conference. 'There needs to be a strong mandate, because the Netherlands won't join any initiative whatsoever if there is not a clear mandate. (..) There also needs to be an escalation mechanism, in which the US needs to be prepared to be stand-by to act.'   United Kingdom: 'British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he is ready to send British troops to Ukraine as part of any postwar peacekeeping force'. 'It's about our national security and I think that we need to do more'. (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat -Headquartered London, United Kingdom, supported by Saudi government).

(17 February 2025)  Some European leaders are meeting in France. Tomorrow Russia's foreign minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio are due to meet in the Saudi capital. Ukraine is not attending either set of talks. What key powers hope to gain from two days of intense diplomacy?    Since the summer, Putin has stated that his main conditions for starting negotiations to end the war are the recognition of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, the lifting of sanctions on Russia, and denial of Ukraine's request to join Nato. For many years Putin has sought dialogue specifically with the US – a country he both blames for starting the war in Ukraine and considers the only power equal to Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has said he would "first and foremost like to listen" to the American proposals on ending the conflict in Ukraine. As for Europe, Moscow sees no point in inviting it to the negotiating table. Moscow may take note of Starmer's statements about being ready to send peacekeepers to the Ukraine. Whether Russia is ready for any compromises remains an open question.    The US has been very cautious in discussing what concessions Russia might have to make. The White House and the Pentagon have said they expect compromises from "both sides". Secretary of State Rubio and Special Envoy to the Middle East Witkoff will be the public face of the US team negotiating in Riyadh - but the negotiations with Russia over the fate of Ukraine have been Trump’s focus behind the scenes. On Wednesday, 12 February Trump said he believes he is inclined to agree with Defence Secretary Hegseth's assessment that a return to pre-2014 borders is unrealistic for Ukraine, although he expects Ukraine might get "some" of that land back. Yesterday, Trump told he had been kept abreast of the latest developments and the talks are "moving along". His short-term goal is to stop the fighting in Ukraine. Longer term, he appears to want less American involvement. Trump has also pushed for access to rare minerals in Ukraine in return for aid, or even as compensation. But he has not yet said what a post-war Ukraine would look like. He said that he expects Zelensky to be a part of the "conversation", but not the talks in Riyadh. Rubio has said a longer process will "obviously" include Europe and Ukraine.    Today: European leaders in Paris.    The French nation always wary of American geopolitical manoeuvring. Former Prime Minister De Villepin at a recent news briefing was accusing an ’arrogant’ Trump of attempting to ’rule the world without principles or respect.’ French President Macron called today's informal meeting to help Europe coordinate a response both to Washington's posture towards the continent, and to whatever emerges from the White House's fast-paced negotiations with the Kremlin. The Europeans ’are not coordinated’ to work together ’to prepare a possible peacekeeping force for Ukraine’.   Denmark will be the only Nordic nation at today's meeting, representing the interests of its Baltic neighbours to the east – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – all of whom border Russia. Defence Minister Poulsen has been quoted by Danish media as saying he is not ruling out peacekeeping boots on the ground in Ukraine– but that it is too early to talk about.   Over the past three years the country has ’successfully pivoted away’ from Russian energy and massively upped defence spending. But this has hit the German economy hard. The subsequent budget rows sparked the collapse of the German government. So politicians are trying to avoid public discussions of difficult issues, like higher Nato spending targets or German peacekeeping troops in Ukraine - at least until after the election. German leaders are rattled by Trump's approach to Ukraine. Just days before a national election Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also in Paris. All mainstream parties have condemned American suggestions that a peace deal be brokered without Ukraine or the EU. 'Far-right' and populist-left politicians welcome talks with Putin and want to stop arming Kyiv. ’But they will not get into power’. Whatever the next German government looks like, ’Berlin's support for Ukraine will remain strong’.    Poland has been a key supporter of Ukraine since the start of Russia's invasion and it is the key logistics hub for military and humanitarian aid entering the country. It is also a loud voice arguing that Russia cannot be allowed to win the war it launched. Poland sees Russia as the aggressor and as dangerous - 'Russia is why Poland spends big on its own military'. There is consternation that the US looks like it is conceding to Moscow's key demands, even before talks begin. On the question of whether to send Polish troops to Ukraine – to help enforce any eventual ceasefire - government officials have been cautious, ruling it out for now.   Sir Keir Starmer’ government used to say the terms of any peace deal was up to Ukraine. That has shifted with the new US administration signalling that a return to 2014 borders was "unrealistic". The prime minister is hoping to be a bridge between European leaders and Trump's White House - to put UK troops on the ground in Ukraine is part of that role he wants to play. He will be hoping more European nations in Paris join him in offering their forces to secure a deal. In Westminster the debate goes on about how much the country should spend on defence. Labour has promised to increase defence spending from 2.3% of GDP now to 2.5%. But there is no date for when that would happen. Defence sources say that would be a significant rise.  Not at the talks: Ukraine. Russia occupies almost 25% of Ukraine's territory. Ukraine's defence has cost ’tens of thousands’ of lives of its citizens. The country has in the past insisted that any peace deal include the full withdrawal of Russian troops. That included also the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where Russia has backed separatists in fighting, also in 2014. Ukrainians are scared of a peace agreement like the one in 2014 or 2015 - heavy fighting was stopped, but crossfire on the border continued to bring losses. Many see previous peace arrangements with Russia led to a new round of war as having simply paved the way for its full-scale invasion. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

North America

United States
17 February 2025  Trump’s demand for a $500bn “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. The terms of the pre-decisional contract marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025, that landed at Zelensky’s office a week ago has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”. The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”. ’This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,’ it states and “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. ’It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce’. „President Zelensky himself proposed the idea of giving the US a direct stake in Ukraine’s rare earth elements and critical minerals when he met Trump on a visit to Trump Tower in September”. 'If we are talking about a deal, then let’s do a deal, we are only for it,' he said. Some mineral basins are near the front line in eastern Ukraine, or in Russian-occupied areas. He probably did not expect to be confronted with terms normally imposed on aggressor states defeated in war, willing to let Russia off the hook entirely. Trump told Fox News that Ukraine had “essentially agreed” to hand over $500bn. He warned that Ukraine would be handed to Putin on a plate if it rejected the terms. “They may make a deal. They may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday. But I want this money back,” he said. Trump said the US had spent $300bn on the war so far, adding that it would be “stupid” to hand over any more. ’In fact the five packages agreed by Congress total $175bn, of which $70bn was spent in the US on weapons production’. Some of it is in the form of humanitarian grants, but much of it is lend-lease money that must be repaid. Republican Senator Graham suggested at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend that Trump’s demand was a clever ploy to bolster declining popular support for the Ukrainian cause. Ukrainian officials had to tiptoe though this minefield at the Munich forum, trying to smile gamely. Talk of Ukraine’s resource wealth has become surreal. A figure of $26 trillion is being cast around for combined mineral reserves and hydrocarbons reserves. Ukraine probably has the largest lithium basin in Europe. But the McDermitt Caldera in Nevada is thought to be the biggest lithium deposit on the planet with 40m metric tonnes, alone enough to catapult the US ahead of China. The value of lithium is in the processing and the downstream industries. Unprocessed rock deposits sitting in Ukraine are all but useless to the US. Rare earths are not rare. Mining companies in the US abandoned the business in the 1990s because profit margins were then too low. That problem is being resolved. Ukraine has cobalt but most EV batteries now use lithium ferrous phosphate and no longer need cobalt. Sodium-ion and sulphur-based batteries will limit the future demand growth for lithium. So the mineral scarcity story is wildly exaggerated. Shale gas: Some of the Yuzivska field lies under Putin control, and the western Carpathian reserves are in complex geology with high drilling costs, causing Chevron to pull out, just as it did in Poland. Ukraine has more potential as an exporter of electricity to Europe from renewables and nuclear expansion, but that is not what is on Trump’s mind. Ukraine cannot possibly meet his $500bn demand in any meaningful timeframe. “My style of dealmaking is quite simple and straightforward,” says Trump in his book The Art of the Deal. “I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after.” (Source: The Telegraph - online version of The Daily Telegraph newspaper - United Kingdom)
by Pritchard

2/17/2025  Rubio has constantly appeared one or two steps behind the actions of President Trump and tech mogul Musk. He has to defend the decisions other people are making. Rubio has tried to make his presence felt, whether through trips abroad or public comments. “South Africa is doing very bad things,” he declared on X. It channels Trump’s, and likely South Africa native Musk’s anger over that country’s land reform plans. The former senator from Florida has also done a 180 on some of his core policy positions. Rubio once spoke out against dictatorships from Havana to Tehran; now he’s standing by as groups that defy such regimes lose U.S. funding. He long insisted that the U.S. must remain the world’s dominant power, now he’s suggesting that a multipolar world is an inescapable reality. Rubio once touted the work of the U.S. Agency for International Development; now he’s backing its dismantling. He once sought to strengthen ties with America’s allies; now he’s promoting Trump’s threats. Rubio’s defenders argue that he has evolved since Trump began rising in the GOP, edging closer to the MAGA point of view on the need to spend more of America’s resources inside the United States, not beyond it. Of course, it’s Trump’s job to set U.S. foreign policy, not Rubio’s - and Rubio has said from the start he’s going to implement his boss’ vision. Most politicians who join a president’s Cabinet crave to influence the president’s policy. Rubio was competing with so many special envoys Trump has tasked with foreign policy portfolios. Musk, the world’s richest man has a social media megaphone on X, raising risks to any politician who defies him. Rubio appears hesitant to use the power he has - including his staff. He looks as if he’s merely a bystander as Musk and his acolytes, along with Trump appointees such as foreign assistance chief Marocco, engineer key decisions. They are drafting the critical missives, deciding which staff to oust, and making line-by-line suggestions on contract and grant terminations. Rubio hasn’t overseen a thoughtful, targeted reform process that one might expect from a former lawmaker who spent significant time learning about how U.S. foreign policy is made. The outcome is what matters. This period of transition is difficult. But the goal at the end of it is to have a foreign policy, a foreign assistance program that is aligned with U.S. interests and respects taxpayer dollars. Rubio is a fairly gifted speaker who can charm even skeptics. Privately, too, he’s tried to reassure U.S. diplomats and foreign counterparts, urging them to be patient. Rubio is preparing to allow upheaval at the State Department. A person familiar with internal discussions at State said Rubio is on board with at least a 20 percent staff cut and possibly closing a large number of embassies. Maybe Rubio’s head-down, go-along approach will help him hang on to the title of secretary of State for longer than many in Washington expect. But he still bears responsibility for what happens there. (Source: MSN / Politico = U.S.)

Global

February 17, 2025  „The USAID crisis” and funding the future of ’independent nonprofit media around the globe’. New existential threats:    The sudden hold on USAID foreign assistance funding by the US Trump administration has frozen an estimated $268 million in agreed grants in more than 30 countries, throwing much of the 'nonprofit' watchdog sector into crisis, and potentially leaving numerous reporters, contractors, and accountability projects without pay’ in the weeks’ ahead. Several media grantees and experts told they regard this important funding as dead.    Contact details of thousands of human rights defenders, media support actors, and journalists involved in US-funded projects in the past decades, as well as information on what they do and how they work, „has fallen into hostile' hands”.    US administration social media attacks on officials and beneficiaries „has fueled new threats and proposed criminal investigations” in repressive nations. It has also amplified public smears against 'courageous' networks. Some funders have slowly exited the sector.    Policy changes at major social media and tech companies "have suppressed distribution, promoted misinformation, and enabled harassment of independent media and its sources".    The risk of self-censorship to lure future funding is yet another allied threat in this bully landscape.    Some of the gravest immediate threats are being faced by exiled outlets and independent media in places such as Ukraine, Cameroon, and throughout Central America. Ukraine’s Slidstvo.info, an award-winning independent investigative agency, lost 80% of its funding in a single day in January. The outlet would nevertheless continue to produce current investigations in the weeks ahead - including a major war crimes exposé and a real estate corruption scoop. The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) was forced to lose the services of 43 valued reporters and staff, according to its co-founder, Sullivan, after losing 29% of its total funding due to the USAID freeze. Some outlets in Africa have been hard-hit, such as DataCameroon. Tromp, convenor of the African Investigative Journalism Conference (AIJC) revealed that in-process USAID grants totaling US$28 million for the promotion of investigative journalism in Southern, East, and West Africa, respectively, had been frozen. People with teams and families working in difficult environments like Ecuador - people, who are risking their lives to uncover money laundering, human trafficking; illegal exports - all of a sudden they have no funding, explains Ronderos, co-founder of the Latin American Center for Investigative Journalism (El CLIP). This has given a lot of force to the local enemies of media, whether government or organized crime in countries such as El Salvador and Guatemala because they say even the US government is saying they are propagandists or spies or terrorists. Some media grantee organizations have reported receiving letters from the US government that justify individual grant suspensions "because of their diversity, equity, and inclusion practices". Independent media in Ukraine and the Balkans have been among the hardest-hit. Bihus.info lost two-thirds of its funding in the freeze. Some members from the community worry about new data security and harassment threats. One development expert says: “We’ve seen data about support projects being shared on Twitter; we’ve seen hit pieces on GFMD members and others, and we can only expect this to continue. We’ve seen Azerbaijan, Hungary, Belarus, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and others welcoming USAID’s disbanding, and the narratives around enemies of the state; traitors; spies raking in this money already in circulation.” (Source: Global Investigative Journalism Network - registered in Maryland, headquarters U.S.)
by Philp , GIJN’s senior reporter, formerly chief reporter for South Africa’s Sunday Times.
See also: Impact on organizations /Survey/ (Source: Global Aid Freeze Tracker)
"665 respondents estimated approximately 15 147 local sub-grantees and sub-contractors would be impacted as a result of the stop work orders"; Projects terminated or suspended (map).

February 17, 2025  Artificial intelligence and other technologies. The coming Golden Age of crime. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
By Muggah, a principal at the SecDev Group and co-founder of the Igarapé Institute; Glenny, the author of McMafia: Seriously Organised Crime.

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Europe

France
(16 February 2025)  A group of European leaders - including the UK's Keir Starmer, Nato secretary-general Rutte, Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz and the European Commission's der Leyen - will meet in Paris. French President Macron will hold an informal meeting in the afternoon on Ukraine and European security. Ahead of the summit, writing in the UK's Daily Telegraph newspaper, Sir Keir said the UK was prepared to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by ’putting our own troops on the ground if necessary’. (Source: BBC News – United Kingdom)

European Union
February 16, 2025  Trump's special enwoy for Ukraine and Russia, Kellogg says EU might not have place in Russia peace talks. "What we don't want to do is get into a large group discussion," he said in Munich. French President Macron convened some European leaders to an emergency meeting in Paris. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Ukraine
16/02/2025  Rejected deal with US over rare minerals - document 'too focused on US interests'. (Source: Euronews - Headquarters Lyon, France)

Sunday, 16 February 2025  The Trump administration has indicated it is interested in accessing critical minerals to reduce dependence on China. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

United Kingdom
(16 February 2025)  Responsibility comes with potentially putting British servicemen and women in harm's way. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

North America

United States
(16 February 2025)  The White House's Middle East envoy Witkoff confirmed he was travelling to Saudi Arabia today evening for the first face-to-face talks between the US and Russia towards ending the conflict. Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and friend of Trump, was in Moscow this week. US President Trump revealed today that Witkoff had met with Putin already, earlier in the week, "for a very extended period, like about three hours". Witkoff said US officials were speaking separately with Ukrainian officials and that Ukraine was "part of the talks". He indicated that previous negotiations had failed due to the involvement of too many parties. Trump told reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, today that he expected Zelensky to be involved in the talks, though he did not say how. He also said he would allow European nations ’to buy US weapons for Ukraine’. When he believed any peace negotiations could bear fruit and end the fighting? Trump said only that "we're working to get it done" and laid the blame for the war on the previous administration's Ukraine policies. The US special envoy to Ukraine Kellogg had said Kyiv would be involved in this week's talks in Saudi Arabia, but no delegation would be present. Rubio downplayed the Saudi Arabia talks, saying one meeting would not solve the war and that a formal negotiating process - that would mediate between Ukraine, Russia and third parties - had not yet been set up. (Source: BBC News – United Kingdom)

16.02.2025  Zelenskyy's rejection of US access to half of Ukraine's mineral resources "short-sighted," White House National Security Council spokesman Hughes said. The deal would allow American taxpayers to recover funds sent to Kyiv while also benefiting Ukraine’s economy. President Trump did not rule out that he would want to "return" all the money spent by the American government in this country, specifically, an equivalent in the form of Ukrainian rare earth metals worth $500 billion. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Feb 16, 2025  US federal agencies started mass layoffs - this week, over 9,500 employees have been laid off. (Source: NewsBytes - India)

Sunday 16 February 2025  The agency overseeing the US nuclear stockpile let some staff go - 325 essential nuclear security workers - but now they want them back. (Source: Sky News – United Kingdom)

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Europe

Croatia
February 15, 2025, Saturday  A boycott of major retail chains in Croatia has led to an estimated loss of 80 million euros, according to protesters. The movement began after a call from the Croatian consumer initiative "Halo Inspector" on January 24, urging people to stop shopping at large supermarkets to protest against rising food prices. The appeal quickly gained traction through social media, with many Croatian citizens joining the protest. The prices of everyday items in Croatia have soared, with food inflation reaching 5.4% in January alone, a significant increase from 4.5% in December. This has led to widespread frustration, as inflation rates have been on the rise for months. Croatians have pointed out that prices are significantly cheaper abroad, with a recent study confirming that food spending in Croatia is disproportionately high when compared to the rest of Europe.    In Bulgaria, a political party in power has proposed a bill to limit the prices of basic food items, citing concerns over foreign companies profiting off citizens while sending revenue abroad.    Romania has also seen calls for a boycott, with the populist presidential candidate Georgescu urging citizens to reject foreign suppliers. This movement has led to some results, such as Carrefour reducing prices on 1,500 products by up to 25%.    Serbia,    Bosnia and Herzegovina,    North Macedonia, and     Montenegro have also heard calls for boycotts, with Prime Minister Spajic of Montenegro expressing personal support for the protests. (Source: Novinite – Bulgaria)

France
15.02.2025  Europe must be ready to face challenges, ’make sacrifices for its own security’, French foreign minister Barrot said reporters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.today. The minister recalled that Europe had lived for decades in a certain form of recklessness regarding its own security that was in a way, implicitly outsourced to its American partners, its dependence on technological matters, as well as the energy prices and climate change. It is time to act now that Europe is in the quest for ways to recover its strategic autonomy. He recalled that President of the EU Commission der Leyen presented 'the roadmap for competitiveness' two weeks ago. Barrot further said the new US administration, ’which entered office three, maybe three-and-a-half weeks ago, is still forming its opinion on the crisis in Ukraine'. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Germany
(Saturday), 15.02.2025 The three-day annual Munich Security Conference kicked off Friday in Munich, hosting more than 50 heads of state and government and 150 government ministers from around the world. High-level discussions about the war in Ukraine and statements on possible peace negotiations as well as the US vice president's remarks about Europe dominated day one. Today, the conference continued with an address by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set to be followed by President Zelenskyy. European Council President Costa, Czech President Pavel, Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen, and Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson will take part in a discussion on European support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Rutte will also speak on a panel about NATO, the US, and transatlantic security. Another panel discussion will bring together the foreign ministers of Germany, Poland, France, and the UK. Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan will speak at a panel on Prospects for Syria's transition along with his Syrian counterpart Al-Shaibani and Saudi counterpart Saud. The heads of international organizations such as the World Food Program and the International Organization for Migration will also speak at the annual gathering. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Feb 15, 2025 During an interview with German Radio (Deutschlandfunk), Heusgen, the head of the Munich Security Conference, claimed he believes that “today the American Vice President will announce that a large part of the American troops will be withdrawn from Europe.” Heusgen’s comments follow recent media reports that US President Trump plans to cut his country’s troop presence in Europe by about 20%, or 20,000 troops, as part of a review of Washington's commitment to protecting Europe. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran)

European Commission
February 15 2025  Europe and the military-industrial complex. It is always the case that money can be found for defence spending, war and any other act of destruction for humankind. As the FT noted yesterday: The EU plans to temporarily ease its fiscal rules to allow countries to spend more on defence, as the bloc has come under pressure from the US to invest more in its own security. ’I can announce that I will propose to activate the escape clause for defence investments,’ European Commission president der Leyen said at the Munich Security Conference yesterday. ’This will allow member states to substantially increase their defence expenditure’, she added. Could the EU permit increased spending to relieve poverty? No. Apparently, that was impossible. But can we relax spending rules for defence? Apparently, that's no problem. Money creation is always a political choice, and as a matter of fact, modern monetary theory precisely describes the process involved. As US President Eisenhower said in 1961 when leaving the White House: "In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist". Wise words. We need to tread with care right now. (Source: Tax Research LLP. – Ely, United Kingdom)
by Murphy, a part-time Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School.

Russia
15 February 2025  Russia’s spy services have a shadowy new unit taking aim at the West with covert attacks across Europe and elsewhere, Western intelligence officials say. The Department of Special Tasks - its Russian acronym: SSD - is based in the headquarters of Russian military intelligence, a complex on the outskirts of Moscow known as the aquarium. Its operations, which haven’t been previously reported, ’have included attempted killings, sabotage and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes’. The new department is ’believed’ to be behind a host of recent attacks against the West, including the attempted killing of the chief executive of a German arms maker and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes used by shipping giant Deutsche Post AG (DHL). These are, as usual, completely unsubstantiated accusations, said Kremlin spokesman Peskov. The SSD has taken over some powers from the FSB, the country’s largest intelligence service, and absorbed Unit 29155, which Western intelligence and law-enforcement officials say was behind the 2018 poisoning of a Russian double agent, Skripal, in the U.K. The SSD has at least three broad tasks: carrying out killings and sabotage overseas, infiltrating Western companies and universities, and recruiting and training foreign agents. The department has been seeking to recruit agents from Ukraine, developing nations and countries seen as friendly to Russia, such as Serbia. The department also runs an elite special operations center, known as Senezh, where Russia trains some of its special forces. Col. Gen. Averyanov and his deputy, Lt. Gen. Kasianenko oversee the operations of the SSD. Averyanov, a veteran of Russia’s Chechen wars, is wanted by Czech police for his suspected role in an operation to blow up an ammunition depot in 2014. President Putin awarded him Russia’s highest honor, the Hero of Russia medal, following his involvement in the occupation and annexation of Crimea. Western intelligence officials said they ’believe’ his deputy, Kasianenko, coordinated the operation to poison Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in the U.K. Russia denied involvement in the poisoning. Kasianenko’s role includes overseeing covert operations in Europe and the takeover of the Wagner paramilitary operations in Africa after the killing of its founder, Prigozhin, in 2023. He was born in 1975 in Kazakhstan. Known internally by his initials KIS, Kasianenko joined Russia’s military intelligence, (GRU), after serving in Russia’s air force. A Persian speaker who once operated in Tehran under the guise of a diplomatic posting, Kasianenko was recently involved in facilitating a transfer of skills and technology from Russia to Iran, according to European intelligence officials. He was earlier identified by Grozev, an investigative journalist, in a report for the online news outlet the Insider. He said he originally identified GRU operatives from a scene in a recent documentary about the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan, “Hollywoodgate.” Grozev was then able to obtain phone records of one of the operatives, which showed that he had been interacting with Kasianenko. In May last year, operatives from the SSD set fire to a factory in Berlin owned by Diehl, a company that supplies weapons systems to Ukraine. Around the same time, U.S. intelligence told Germany that it had uncovered a plan to assassinate leaders of Europe’s armaments industry, including Papperger, the chief executive of Rheinmetall, the biggest supplier of artillery ammunition to Ukraine and which is also building a tank factory in the war-torn country. There have been attacks elsewhere in Europe as well. In June, French authorities arrested a dual Ukrainian-Russian national after a makeshift bomb exploded in his hotel room. French authorities indicted him on terrorism-related charges, saying he had planned to bomb a home improvement store. Hostile activities by the SSD peaked last summer, but have subsided recently, according to U.S. and European officials. ’The lull in activity could be aimed at creating diplomatic space for Moscow to negotiate with the new U.S. administration, according to the two European intelligence chiefs’. In May, Ukraine’s security service said 'it had foiled a plot by Russia to set several supermarkets and a cafe on fire'. Ukraine said the plan had been coordinated by Maj. Sizov. Western intelligence officials said Sizov, who is an officer in Senezh, 'coordinated another operation days later to set a mall in the Polish capital of Warsaw ablaze. He has since been sanctioned by the EU for his role in the plots. In July, 'similar incendiary devices that were sent via DHL, ignited in transit hubs in Leipzig, Germany, and Birmingham, England. A connecting flight was late, and the device went off while at the airport'. Security officials said the incendiary devices ’appeared to be part of a test run for putting similar devices on planes bound for North America’. Warnings were quietly sent in August to major shipping companies, airlines and airports. The details of the plot, were first reported by the WSJ. The then national security adviser Sullivan and Central Intelligence Agency chief Burns called Russian leaders in August and asked them to stop the attack. Sullivan called Ushakov, an aide to Putin and a former ambassador to the U.S. Burns called his counterpart, Naryshkin, as well as Russia’s most senior security official, Shoigu. The calls were first reported by the New York Times. Both Shoigu and Ushakov, who are among a handful of officials with regular access to Putin, denied any knowledge of the DHL plot. ’The SSD operates under broad orders from Putin, but the commanders might not seek approval for specific operations’, Western and Russian officials said. The department has been particularly focused on Germany because Russia sees the country as a weak link in NATO, due to its dependence on Russian energy, growing anxiety about nuclear escalation and sympathy for Russia among some politicians and voters. In December, the European Union sanctioned a unit of the department, without identifying the SSD by name, for orchestrating ’coups, assassinations, bombings, and cyberattacks’ in Europe and elsewhere. The U.S. indicted members of the SSD on similar charges in December. The State Department is offering a reward of up to $10 million for any information about five members accused of cyberattacks on Ukraine. Some lawmakers and security officials have called for the West to step up covert efforts in response to Russia’s operations. The U.S. should enhance and leverage its own clandestine activities, including in and around Russia, to deter further aggression from the Kremlin, said Thompson, a former CIA paramilitary officer. That was echoed by Sen. Cotton (R., Ark.), the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, who said in a recent hearing that the CIA needs to become bolder and more innovative in covert action. ’Appathurai, the NATO official, warned that the U.S. and its allies needed to adopt a wartime mindset across society in response’. (Source: The Wall Street Journal - U.S.)
by Pancevski

Ukraine
(15 February 2025)  Ukraine end game. Ukraine's future is the focus of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), just days after a phone call between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in which they agreed to begin negotiations to end the Ukraine war. Describing the call earlier this week as "great", Trump said there was a "good possibility of ending that horrible, very bloody war". Moscow currently controls around a fifth of Ukraine's territory, mainly in the south and east. Until recently, Ukraine's western allies stood by Zelensky's position that all of Ukraine, including Crimea, should be returned. But the new US Defence Secretary Hegseth poured cold water on those hopes, saying at a summit in February that achieving pre-2014 borders was an "unrealistic objective". "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering," he said. For Kyiv, Russia's full-scale invasion is proof that only Nato membership can guarantee its security. Russia has consistently opposed the idea of Ukraine becoming a member, fearing it would bring Nato forces too close to its borders. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was telling Zelensky that the country is on 'an irreversible path' to membership. The US defence secretary downplayed the likelihood of Nato membership for Ukraine in any peace settlement. "The United States does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement," Hegseth said. Zelensky has said previous discussions with US President Trump are ’definitely not enough to form a plan’ for peace. Hegseth claimed Trump was the "one man in the world" capable of bringing both sides together and insisted US attempts to negotiate peace were certainly not a betrayal of the Ukrainian soldiers fighting invading Russian forces. Hesgeth has warned there would be no US troops on the ground Ukraine in any future security arrangement. The US vice-president said sending troops to Ukraine is 'still on the table' should Russia fail to negotiate a peace deal in good faith. "The president is not going into this with blinders on," Vance told the WSJ. UK defence sources quoted in the Times newspaper claim that the US could provide some form of air defence - possibly Patriot missiles - to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine in return for access to minerals. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

(Saturday), 15.02.2025  The Trump administration proposed that the US receive a 50% ownership stake in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals as compensation for the military and financial aid provided to Kyiv to fight off the Russian war. Under the proposal, Ukraine would transfer partial control of its valuable mineral resources to Washington rather than make financial repayments. The plan also includes the possibility of deploying American troops to safeguard these assets, contingent on a diplomatic resolution with Russia. Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly handed Zelenskyy a draft contract outlining the proposed agreement during a meeting in Kyiv on Wednesday. Zelenskyy did not sign the agreement during the meeting, instead saying that he needed additional time to study it and consult with others. Ukraine is sitting on massive reserves of critical rare earth minerals. In addition to having one of the largest confirmed reserves of lithium, Ukraine boasts semiconductor-grade neon gas that is critical for chip production, beryllium, uranium, zirconium, apatite, iron ore and manganese. It holds about 5% of the world’s total of mineral resources, according to a 2024 World Economic Forum report. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

Gaza
February 15, 2025  Hamas frees 3 more hostages. About 70 hostages remain in Hamas custody, about half are believed to be dead. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

North America

United States
(February 15, 2025)  The campaign by President Trump and his adviser Musk to radically cut back the US bureaucracy has spread, firing more than 9,500 workers who handled everything from managing federal lands to caring for military veterans. About 1,200 to 2,000 workers at the Department of Energy were laid off, including 325 from the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), which oversees the nuclear stockpile, America’s nuclear weapons. NNSA is a semi-autonomous arm of the US Energy Department responsible for producing and dismantling nuclear weapons , providing the Navy with nuclear reactors for submarines and responding to radiological emergencies, among other duties. The agency also plays a role a key role in counter-terrorism, transporting nuclear weapons around the country and responding to nuclear incidents around the world. It began rescinding the terminations yesterday morning. Among those let go were NNSA personnel stationed at nuclear weapons manufacturing plants who inspect nuclear weapons and supervise the contractors who manufacture them. Employees at NNSA headquarters who draft specifications and directives for contractors producing nuclear weapons were also involved. Mass firings resulted in scenes of uncertainty and disarray at the civilian agency that manages the country's nuclear weapons arsenal over the past two days. The agency has begun to re-examine the terminations after realising the implications. (Source: TRT World – Turkey)

NATO

15.02.2025  At the Munich Security Conference in Germany, the NATO secretary general today called on European countries to make concrete proposals and ideas rather than complaining about being excluded from potential talks on Ukraine. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

Oceania

Cook Islands
February 15, 2025  China and the Cook Islands yesterday signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement. The Cook Islands has a free association agreement with New Zealand. The Cook Islands and China would look to deepen cooperation in areas such as deep-sea mining. Kiribati? (Source: VoA News - U.S.)