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Europe
Germany
(Monday), February 24, 2025 Germany is a country under stress. Merz, the head of the Christian Democrats, is set to become the next chancellor in a coalition government with the Social Democrats, who headed the previous government but sank to a mere 16 percent of the overall vote. Saturday, at a festive political rally at the Loewenbraeukeller, Merz had already intimated to the audience that America was not necessarily a reliable partner of Germany and Europe. On Sunday, he went further. He warned that Trump’s America bore similarities to Putin’s Russia and that Germany could not count on Trump extending the American nuclear umbrella over Europe. On national television, he said: ’My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.’ ’It is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe, he added. ’At the heart of Merz’s apprehensions is the war in Ukraine'. Under Merz, Germany will play a key role in bolstering European support for Ukraine. During the Cold War, the Franco-German relationship was key to countering the Soviet Union. Merz will revive it ’to counter Putin’. French president Macron consulted with Merz before traveling to Washington today to meet with Trump about Ukraine. ’Merz will move to bolster defense spending’. But his narrow victory means that he faces a conundrum. The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats have 328 seats. With the AFD waiting on the sidelines, any new German government coalition ’must hang together or hang separately’. The left and right possess a blocking minority in the Bundestag with 216 seats - reform of the debt brake or special funds, dependent on a 2/3 majority, could only occur with their cooperation. Both the ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany (AFD) Party, which scored over 20 percent in the election to become the second largest party in the Bundestag, and the ’far left’ Die Linke party favor an emollient approach toward Moscow. What’s more, a faction in the SPD, as Forstner, the Washington representative of the Hanns-Seidel Foundation, believes in “the continuation of Ostpolitik tradition,” or détente with the East. “They are still holding to the strategic belief,” he notes, “that there is no peace in Europe without Russia. And Moscow holds the key to eastern European security.” (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Heilbrunn, editor of The National Interest and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
Greece
February 24, 2025, Monday U.S. President Trump has reportedly ordered the closure of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupoli, Greece, Greek newspaper Dimokratia reported. It is a significant shift in U.S. military strategy in the region. Reports suggest that the closure was a result of a joint request from Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan. Turkey, has long been opposed to U.S. military presence near its borders. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)
Ukraine
Feb 24, 2025 If Zelensky were to resign or if elections were held, several key figures have emerged as potential successors. General Zaluzhny served as Ukraine's commander-in-chief of the armed forces from 2021 to 2024 and now holds the position of ambassador to the United Kingdom. He was dismissed as head of the military on February 8, 2024, and replaced by General Syrsky. Zaluzhny's growing popularity among both the public and the military fueled speculation that he posed a potential political challenge to Zelensky's presidency. He and Zelensky have clashed over the general's war strategies and the challenge of mass mobilization. Zaluzhny has not ruled out the possibility he would run for office. The Economist reported on February 19 that it had obtained internal polling indicating Zelensky would lose a future election to Zaluzhny by 30 percent to 65 percent in a wartime election. Budanov is the head of Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency. An InfoSapiens poll conducted from November 15 to 27 ranked Budanov second after Zaluzhny, with a trust rating of 54.6 percent. Zelensky held a 53 percent trust rating, while Zaluzhny led with 76.8 percent. In a YouTube interview Budanov suggested a ceasefire could be reached this year. How long it will be, how effective it will be - is another question, Budanov said. Stefanchuk, the chairman of Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada), has also been floated as a potential successor to Zelensky. A key ally of the president, Stefanchuk has strongly opposed calls from Trump and Putin for Ukraine to hold elections. He has yet to declare any presidential ambitions. The U.S. and Russia are engaged in talks to potentially broker a peace deal to end the war - without Ukraine's participation. White House press secretary Leavitt told on February 22 Trump is "very confident" a deal could be reached as early as "this week." (Source: Newsweek – U.S.)
NATO
24 February 2025 Merz, expected to be the next German chancellor after winning his country’s elections on Sunday, has called on Britain and France to extend their nuclear protection as he seeks ’independence’ for Europe from Trump’s America. Mr Merz said last Friday that Paris and London should discuss ’whether their nuclear protection could also be extended to us’ before warning on Sunday that the US under Mr Trump was now indifferent to the fate of Europe. The United States has long guaranteed Europe’s safety with an arsenal of around 100 nuclear missiles, many of them stationed in a US military base in Germany. France’s nuclear ’deterrent’ is currently independent from Nato, while Britain’s forms a key part of the alliance’s defence strategy. Posting a few French nuclear jet fighters in Germany should not be difficult and would send a 'strong message', a French official told. Deploying fighter jets ’would send a message to Putin’, the source said, while diplomats in Berlin suggested it ’would pressure’ Sir Keir Starmer to do the same. Macron, the French president, spoke with Mr Merz on Sunday night before travelling to the White House to present his plan for European security and the defence of Ukraine to Mr Trump. At the White House summit, the US president suggested his country would not provide security guarantees to Ukraine after a peace deal was signed. Mr Macron said peace must not be a surrender of Ukraine as he also called on Europeans to do more to protect the Continent. Mr Macron also interrupted Mr Trump and corrected him on how much Europe spends on defence. Meanwhile, the US clashed with its allies over a UN resolution on the Ukraine war. Washington voted with Russia against a motion that condemned Putin’s war and called for his forces to be withdrawn. On Monday night, Mr Trump told reporters that European troops ’may go into Ukraine as peacemakers’ and that Putin would accept it. “I’ve asked him that question,” Mr Trump said as he hosted Mr Macron. “He has no problem with it”. The US president suggested that the war in Ukraine could end within weeks. Mr Macron also said a truce in the war could be done in the weeks to come, in an interview with Fox News after his meeting with Mr Trump. The US president said Zelensky could travel to Washington this week or next to seal a minerals agreement, which he called “very close”. Meanwhile, speaking in Moscow, Putin expressed Russia’s readiness to collaborate with the US on rare earth metals production. In remarks broadcast on state television, Putin also said Russia did not rule out European countries participating in a peace settlement. Mr Macron has been pushing Europe to hold a debate on the role that French nuclear weapons can play in the Continent’s defence. Prime Minister Sir Keir has sided with European leaders rather than Mr Trump on the issue of resolving the war in Ukraine, and wants to sign a security and defence pact with the EU. France’s arsenal is believed to contain an estimated 300 nuclear weapons, under its 'force de dissuasion’ programme, with sea and air-based launch capabilities. Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent consists of four Vanguard-class submarines which can carry up to 16 warheads each. German diplomatic sources suggested that talks on a European deterrent for their country had not started, with Mr Merz locked in discussions on forming a coalition government. ’My understanding is that on the CDU side, the thinking is we need a nuclear umbrella, we want to have a say in this, we should be ready to talk about this and we are willing to pay for it’, a diplomat said. The request would be unlikely to be formally made unless the Americans pulled their nuclear deterrent out of Germany. Addressing world leaders via video link at a summit in Kyiv to mark the third anniversary of the Kremlin’s invasion, Sir Keir said that Moscow does not hold all the cards in this war. He added that Britain was ready and willing to support a future peacekeeping deal with ’troops on the ground’, unlike the United States. On a visit to Kyiv yesterday, Johnson, the former prime minister, told there was a ’moral case for Ukraine to have its own nuclear weapons as the threat from Russia rises'. (Source: Telegraph - United Kingdom')
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