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Asia
Iran
March 31, 2026 11:41 CET Explosions. Fires lit up the night sky in the Iranian city of Isfahan which is home to the Badr military air base. The US reportedly used a large number of bunker-busting bombs overnight on March 30-3l. (Source: RFERL)
Video
31/03/2026 1:04 pm Iranian air defense forces announced today that they shot down a US MQ-9 drone flying over the city of Isfahan. This move represents a new escalation in the ongoing tensions between Tehran and Washington. The Iranian military spokesman indicated that the drone was conducting a reconnaissance mission. (Source: Voice of Emirates - Dubai, United Arab Emirates)
March 30, 2026 Instead of an immediate collapse, the decapitation of the Iranian regime appears to have produced an unpredictable constellation of second-order effects. The February 28 decapitation strike convinced Iran’s remaining leadership that this is an existential war - not a limited confrontation like the Twelve-Day War. At the very least, it physically eliminated Iran’s few pragmatic leaders who in the past favored restraint. It thus handed over power to the hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The war appears to have paralyzed Iran’s domestic opposition, whose adherents may despise the regime but - unlike the U.S. and Israel - do not want to see their country break up into ethnic statelets. Today’s ruling Principalists in Iran are largely provincial in origin, domestically rooted, and lack the international ties that once offered pathways of exit. They do not hold dual citizenships, do not maintain foreign residences, few of them possess the linguistic or social capital to relocate abroad. They have no viable exit. For them, defeat is not exile - it is annihilation. Under such conditions, the expectation is not capitulation, but resistance to the very end. Starting in 2001, the campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq offered Iranian war planners a prolonged and unusually comprehensive vantage point from which to study the American way of war in their immediate neighborhood. The Iranians analyzed these methods, learned from them, and internalized their logic into their own asymmetric warfare doctrine, now put into operation. It channels the state’s military, civilian, economic, and informational assets into a multi-domain, protracted insurgency campaign designed to inflict maximum pain on its enemies. It rests on its asymmetric patience - its capacity to endure more physical and emotional torment than its Western or Western-backed opponents - refined skill during the 'War of Holy Defense' (1980-1988), the deadliest conventional war ever fought in the developing world. The then-newly formed Islamic Republic suffered over 500,000 casualties - many of those due to exposure to chemical warfare - but managed to bring Hussein’s Western-backed Iraq into a standstill and force it into a truce. To do so, they even resorted to so-called human wave assaults. That was largely how the Basij, the Iranian regime’s paramilitary ’street gangs’ that continue to operate in modern-day Iran, were initially formed. On March 28, the Telegram channel belonging to the Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei issued an infographic titled The Path to Defeating the Enemy in the Economic War, first developed in 2014 by the late Supreme Leader Khamenei. The goal of the economy of resistance is to prevent the destruction of the Islamic Republic and the Westernization of Iranian society. With crucial help by China and Russia, Iran has largely managed to insulate its economy from the global economic system that is now reeling under Iran’s asymmetric attacks. Controlling the flow of traffic in the Arabian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz is the center of gravity of Iran’s economy of resistance doctrine. The Iranian regime has managed to transform its conflict with the U.S. and Israel from a regional skirmish into an international war with potentially epoch-defining ramifications for the global financial system. Tehran is therefore highly unlikely to surrender the Strait back to its Gulf Cooperation Council neighbors without expressed guarantees for the regime’s survival. It is exceedingly difficult to see how the control of the Strait could be wrestled away from Iran using naval military assets. During the peak of the Red Sea crisis, even the most advanced navy destroyers were overwhelmed by a land-based assailant that is able to launch a saturation attack against them with drones or other projectiles. These warships can defend themselves, until they run out of ammunition and are forced to return to port in order to rearm. Analyses of Iranian targeting reveal Tehran’s central tactical goal to disable enemy radar installations and refueling aircraft needed to support American and Israeli fighter jets for long-range air operations. The regime has placed most of its strategic military components deep inside Iran. There is little doubt that Moscow began providing Tehran real-time targeting data about American and Israeli military and civilian assets at the very onset of the war. Moscow and Beijing also begun supplying Iran with drones and rocket fuel, according to Western intelligence. So long as the Iranian regime remains in control domestically, it will never run out of drones, which they can use to attack ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. For the foreseeable future, therefore, Iranian authorities will continue to force ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay a toll in order to sail through unharmed. Many ships have complied by paying as much as Chinese ¥14 million (U.S. $2 million) in exchange for an official certificate from the Iranian authorities. By showing this certificate to their marine insurer they keep their insurance costs manageable and stay in business. Without such a certificate no insurance firm in the world will agree to insure a ship going through the Strait of Hormuz at a reasonable price. And, unlike the stock market, maritime insurance firms such as Lloyds of London do not get swayed by U.S. President Trump’s posts on TruthSocial. They will wait until they see tangible proof before lowering insurance costs. The entirely rational Russian and Chinese assistance to Iran undoubtedly frustrates American and Israeli war planners. The Kremlin 'has emerged as one of the primary beneficiaries' of the Iran war, as the surging oil prices and the lifting of American sanctions on Russian oil exports have helped reinvigorate Russia’s long-suffering economy. China has also seen an extensive array of American carrier strike groups and highly sophisticated air defense systems vacate the Indo-Pacific region for the Middle East. China has stockpiled enough oil for over 200 days, after which time it can secure oil via land from both Iran and Russia. In contrast, a prolonged energy standoff in the Arabian Gulf has the potential to push the economies of its regional rivals - including Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand, to the brink. Beijing therefore will do its best to ensure that a protracted and inconclusive conflict in Iran continues. Victory in this war will not belong to the side that can inflict the most pain, but rather to the side that can endure the most pain for the longest time. Iran’s demonstrated asymmetric patience places it in a dominant position over the neurotic and anxiety-ridden markets, to which the Trump administration is extremely attune. The Iranian regime is also far better-placed to endure this conflict than the demanding and perpetually impatient American voter, to whom Trump promised in 2024 that “starting on day 1, we will end inflation and make America affordable again” Even the Israelis, who are markedly more stoic than the Americans, cannot necessarily be counted to continue to support this war for very long. They will soon be entering their second month of nightly air raids, with massive disruptions in daily life and a desperately strained war economy. The White House is clearly weighing the possibility of using a ground force as a means of putting added economic and military pressure on Tehran. Much has been made of the 5,000 U.S. Marines, as well as a host of stand-by global-response elements of the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, who are on their way to the Gulf. There are reports that these forces could move in on Kharg island and occupy the sea port that Iran uses to distribute up to 90 percent of its oil exports via tankers. Other reports claim that U.S. ground forces could occupy Iranian coastal regions around the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to prevent Iran from launching missiles and drones against cargo ships. Such plans are unlikely to materialize. Numbers associated with these reports seem inadequate to occupy Kharg or the coastline around the Strait of Hormuz for more than a few days and require substantial support in the form of near-complete air dominance, persistent surveillance capabilities, as well as a multitude of naval assets for force protection and adequate resupply. It is far more likely that these troops will be used for short-term raids aimed at destroying or disabling key Iranian military or civilian installations. These operations may or may not prove successful. They are also likely to face rates of attrition that the U.S. has not seen since the peak period of the Iraqi insurgency. Another possible option is for the U.S. and Israel to leave the Iranian regime in place and attempt instead to defang it by covertly extracting its strategic uranium stockpiles. This would require the use of highly specialized Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) elements trained in the covert extraction of weapons of mass destruction. Which does the precise whereabouts be of these stockpiles? Providing that such intelligence can be acquired, that the stockpiles are not scattered in too many disparate locations, and that the uranium is physically possible to extract safely, a covert expeditionary force is conceivable. Alternatively, the JSOC extraction force would need to be supported by elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, possibly the Ranger Regiment, as well as perhaps multiple Delta Force squadrons. This could end up resembling a small military campaign. Once again, the possibility of high attrition rates would need to be carefully weighed. The strategic reality is now stark. The U.S. and Israel are no longer dictating the tempo of this war - they are reacting to it. A wounded but resilient Iranian regime has seized the initiative, and no external actor - certainly not NATO - is coming to reverse that fact. What remains are narrowing choices, each more costly than the last: escalation, attrition, or strategic compromise. None promise clean outcomes. All carry risk. This war will spill into markets, into supply chains, into households. What comes next will be messy, violent, expensive. (Source: Intelnews - U.S.)
by Fitsanakis
March 30, 2026 The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced yesterday that Iran’s heavy water production plant in Khondab is no longer operational, following damage sustained amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. In a post on X, the UN nuclear watchdog stated that the facility currently does not contain any declared nuclear material. IAEA Director General Grossi underscored the gravity of the situation yesterday, stating that “nuclear facilities should never be targeted, nor should their physical integrity be compromised.” (Source: SANA - Syria)
05:45, 29 Mar 2026 Iran signed the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1973, banning the development, production and stockpiling of biological weapons. Since 1979, the US has continued to raise the alarm that the country has accelerated offensive research. All signatories are called upon to submit an annual report, but this requirement is not a legal commitment. Each report includes data on research centres and laboratories, national biological defence programmes, outbreaks of infectious diseases, details on policies for publishing results of biological research, a declaration of all laws and regulations, and vaccine production sites. Iran has done so twice – once in 2016 and then in 2021. 'Turning to chemical or biological as its missile supply dwindles is a real risk that the West is blind to'. Iran carnage could spiral into chemical and biological warfare from weaponised botox clinics to leaks from DIY labs. But it is feared an accidental deadly leak from a lab or nuclear infrastructure could also be sparked as the US and Israel continue to trade blows with the 'rogue' nation. De Bretton-Gordon, former commander of the Army’s Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment warned Iran is known to have chemical capability – having used it during its war against Iraq in the 1980s. 'The Russians are advising them [Iran] and giving them a lot of intelligence and you only have to look to Ukraine and how Russia has used chemical weapons', he told. 'When I was with the Peshmerga [security forces of the Kurdistan Region] as their chemical weapons advisor in the fight against isis and the Iranian militias in between 2015 and 2017, the Iranian militias used nerve agents and chlorine against us. So one must assume that they still have that capability'. MacIntyre, a professor of global biosecurity at the University of New South Wales, said Iran 'could be plotting to create temporary labs in enemy nations to develop biological weapons undetected' – ready to be released at any chosen time. 'The clandestine labs discovered in the US in Reedley and Las Vegas as well as recent examples of smuggling biological materials indicate how easy a Trojan Horse attack would be'. The biggest risk is that we fail to recognise a serious epidemic as having an unnatural origin, MacIntyre said. In health and medicine, we are not taught about biowarfare, and 'epidemics, when they occur, are assumed to be natural'. Legitimate medical and scientific studies can very quickly be used for dual purpose. A pharmaceutical facility inside Iran that is making botox for their medical use can very quickly be ramped up to be making huge quantities of something that is highly toxic. There are two manufacturers of the neurotoxin – most commonly used cosmetically for facial wrinkles and medically for migraines. Derived from the botulinum toxin, one of the most poisonous substances known, a large dose could kill tens of thousands of people. Illegal botox supplies linked to illegal cosmetic clinics means there is a blackmarket in botox already, which could be exploited. Physical disruption to labs is possible during conflict, which may then result in biocontainment breaches and epidemics. (Source: The U.S. Sun)
29/03/2026 - 11:45 Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have threatened to target U.S. university campuses in the Middle East unless Washington formally condemns the strikes on two Iranian universities. Iran has also continued attacks on major infrastructure in Gulf countries, recently hitting aluminum plants in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates that it claims are linked to the US military. (Source: France 24)
11:06-29 March 2026 The war-outcome future of Iran’s regional allies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed factions in Iraq: Scenarios. At present, diplomatic solution scenario appears unlikely. The United States is demanding concessions that Iran had previously rejected, while Tehran is putting forward conditions that are seen as difficult to meet. Among these are demands related to control over key maritime routes and broader regional security arrangements. Iran has also linked any potential ceasefire to developments on the Lebanese front, suggesting an effort to maintain influence there. A diplomatic resolution would raise critical questions about Hezbollah’s future, including the status of its weapons, its fighters and its role within Lebanon’s political system. If current situation persists, a prolonged war of attrition is seen as a scenario that could work in Iran’s favor. Time and economic resources, particularly oil revenues, could allow Tehran to sustain the conflict while gradually wearing down its adversaries. This scenario could lead to deeper instability across the region, particularly in Gulf states, while exacerbating internal tensions in Iraq. In Lebanon, continued conflict could further weaken state institutions and increase the risk of internal unrest. In a war scenario a broader military escalation remains a possibility. The United States has considered expanded operations involving ground, naval and air forces. Potential targets could include Iran’s strategic oil export facilities, such as Kharg Island, as well as key islands controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. More complex operations, such as seizing enriched uranium, are considered less likely due to the challenges involved. For Washington, any such operation would need to achieve a clear outcome. If a military campaign were to succeed, Lebanon would face major challenges, including addressing Hezbollah’s future and managing relations with Israel. Iraq could see an opportunity to strengthen state authority and consolidate internal stability. Failure could have significant consequences for the United States and its allies. The broader regional situation would likely remain unstable, with limited immediate impact on Iraq but continued uncertainty for Lebanon. (Source: Asharq Al Awsat - headquartered in London, England, owned by a member of the Saudi royal family)
Iraq
2026/03/29 11:34 AM In a statement published on the State Department’s website, the United States today condemned an attack targeting the residence of Kurdistan Region of Iraq President Barzani in Duhok, describing it as a threat to Iraq’s sovereignty, unity and stability. Washington said it unequivocally condemns the terrorist attacks carried out by Iran-linked militias against the residence of the Iraq’s Kurdistan Region president. (Source: SANA - Syria)
(29 March 2026) The British Embassy in Iraq today condemned the drone attack targeting the residence of Kurdistan Region President Barzani in Duhok, calling the incident unacceptable. The statement was posted on the UK mission’s X account. The drone strike on Barzani’s residence occurred yesterday, marking the fifth known attack on his headquarters since the onset of the ongoing conflict in Iran. (Source: Kurdistan24)
Mar. 29, 2026 Targeting Kurdistan Region President Barzani’s Duhok residence was a despicable and unacceptable act, Walai, secretary-general of Iraq's pro-Iran Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, said today, drawing similarities to last week’s attack on the residence of Fayyadh, head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Commission (PMC), and implying US-Israeli involvement in the attack on the Kurdish leader’s domicile. PMC was institutionalized and officially incorporated into the Iraqi state security apparatus as part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The group was designated by the US State Department in September. Walai was citing the Kurdish leader’s opposition to a potential entry of Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups into the conflict. American-Israeli strikes have targeted PMF positions across the country since the start of the war, killing over 80 PMF fighters and wounding hundreds others. Iran has denied involvement in the attack, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) condemning it as an act of terrorism, and blaming the US and Israel for the strike. The US on the other hand blamed Iran and its proxies. The Kurdistan Region has repeatedly been targeted throughout the US-Israeli war with Iran. The attacks by Iran and its proxies have not been limited to US interests in the Region. On Tuesday, at least six Peshmerga were killed and 30 others injured in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on the forces’ bases in Erbil province’s Soran administration. President Barzani said in the early hours today that the Kurdistan Region has been targeted over 450 times since the war started. (The NewRegion - headquartered in Erbil Governorate, Iraq)
Israel
31.03.26, 11:50 AM Knesset passed a law that allows death penalty by hanging for Palestinians convicted for murdering Israelis. There is a separate bill under consideration dealing with punishment for the October 7, 2023 attackers in Israel's custody. The Association of Civil Rights in Israel called the legislation discriminatory by design and said the parliament had enacted it without legal authority over West Bank Palestinians, who are not Israeli citizens. Many in Netanyahu's far-right coalition seek to annex the West Bank to Israel. The law also gives Israeli courts the option of imposing the death penalty on Israeli citizens convicted on similar charges - language that legal experts say effectively confines those who can be sentenced to death to Palestinian citizens of Israel and excludes Jewish citizens. (Source: Telegraph - India)
30 March 2026 11:12 (UTC +04:00) The Health Ministry reports that in the past 24 hours, 232 injured people have been taken to hospitals as a result of the conflict with Iran. Since February 28, 6,008 people have been admitted to hospitals, 121 of whom are currently hospitalized. The casualty figures include soldiers and civilians. (Source: APA - Azerbaijan)
(Sunday), 29/03/2026 1:39 pm The Israeli military announced today morning that it had thwarted a large-scale Iranian missile attack targeting the city of Dimona and strategic areas in the Negev desert in southern Israel. A military spokesperson confirmed that at least one ballistic missile was intercepted, while another landed in an open area. No casualties or significant damage have been reported so far. (Source: 'Voice of Emirates - headquartered in Dubai, United Arab Emirates)
Palestine
March 29, 2026 at 11:15 am Mladenov, the former UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, now the Board of Peace High Representative for Gaza, is misrepresenting Gaza to the full capability of Western complicity with colonialism. No amount of double speak by Mladenov can disguise the fact that disarmament and reconstruction facilitate Israel’s control over Gaza through the Board of Peace. The first stage actually points to the failure of maintaining the agreed-upon ceasefire in October 2025 and entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The second stage refers to the collection of the most dangerous weapons and destroying Gaza’s tunnels. While focusing on collecting weapons from Hamas – on a scale from the most dangerous to personal weapons, there is no mention of Israel’s US-made 2,000 pound bunker buster bombs. Hamas, resistance groups and Palestinians in possession of weapons are no match for Israel’s military arsenal. Verification is the third stage. Compliance is only requested from Palestinians, not from Israel which committed genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza. Mladenov noted that reconstruction will only take place if Hamas is disarmed, thus clearly implying that human rights and basic needs are now negotiable and cannot be taken for granted. In the fourth stage, which according to Mladenov addresses the people, Palestinians affiliated with resistance groups will be allowed to re-enter civilian life with dignity, through structured amnesty arrangements and reintegration programs. Israel will likely oppose any so-called reintegration; Hamas has been used as the narrative for genocide in Israel’s rhetoric, and Israeli leaders ’have called the entire population of Gaza a legitimate target for genocide’. The fifth state would verify the disarmament, and Israeli forces’ withdrawal from Gaza except for a presence in a security perimeter. Based upon verification of disarmament, reconstruction would then be able to start. Mladenov told the UN Security Council the end state is a reformed Palestinian Authority capable of governing Gaza and the West Bank, and ultimately a pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood. Reform and Palestinian statehood may look like a gradual progress in diplomatic rhetoric. The PA has not been able to negotiate one single demand towards Palestinian statehood, although it did celebrate its futile symbolic achievements while Israel further expanded its settlements in the occupied West Bank and eroded even the illusion of a Palestinian state. It is easy to see why Mladenov, Israel and the US would want Gaza to suffer the same fate as the occupied West Bank. The international community would benefit from the illusion of prosperity, of a society that partly mimics the normalised economic inequalities found in Western societies. Such discrepancies are easier to overlook than the unfolding genocide in Gaza, where the near total destruction of the land and its visibility have now reached an unwanted global scrutiny. Hypothetically, disarming Hamas will leave Israel with a lesser security narrative. However, turning Gaza into a replica of the occupied West Bank facilitates the colonial process for Israel. With Palestinian anti-colonial resistance stamped out, and the PA as the governing body, the West would envisage a similar scenario of donor funding creating dependence on the West and marginalising the resistance movements. One crucial detail which the Western narrative leaves out is Gaza’s strength as a representation of the entirety of the Palestinian population since 1948. Israel and Western leaders worked hard to consolidate an image of Gaza and the occupied West Bank as distinctive entities to fragment Palestinian liberation. The same colonial dynamics will now have an equally hard time convincing Palestinians in Gaza to subjugate themselves to what the occupied West Bank symbolises in terms of politics and security coordination with Israel, paid for by the West. (Source: The Middle East Monitor - financed by the State of Qatar)
by Wadi
Persian Gulf
(30.03.2026) Since February 28, Iran launched 5,471 missile and drone attacks, targeting US bases and critical sites in seven Arab countries across Gulf as US-Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation continue. Bahrain’s Defence Force General Command said 174 missiles and 391 drones were neutralised. Jordan’s military said 262 missile and drone attacks have been recorded. Kuwait said it intercepted 309 ballistic missiles and 616 drones. Oman said it was targeted by 19 drones. Qatar’s defence ministry reported 206 ballistic missiles and 93 drone attacks targeting the country. Saudi Arabia said at least 52 missiles and 1,006 drones targeted its territory. The United Arab Emirates defence ministry said its systems intercepted 414 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and 1,914 drones. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)
Southwest Asia
March 31, 2026 at 10:22am BST The US has hit the central Iranian city of Isfahan sending a massive fireball into the sky. Nasa fire-tracking satellites suggest the explosions happened near Mount Soffeh. Isfahan is home to one of three sites earlier attacked by the US military in June. One of Iran’s highly enriched uranium is likely stored or buried or there. A satellite image taken just before the 12-day war in June between Iran and Israel suggests Tehran transferred a truckload of highly enriched uranium to its nuclear facility at Isfahan. The image shows a truck loaded with 18 blue containers going into a tunnel at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre about two weeks before the US bombed the site. Analysts determined that the truck likely carried most or all of Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. That is a short, technical step to weapons-grade levels of 90%. Israel and the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran, hitting Tehran in the early morning hours. Sirens and loud explosions were also heard in Jerusalem. Tehran struck a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, in Dubai waters. Iran has threatened to launch its own ground invasion of Gulf Arab countries and to mine the Persian Gulf if US troops set foot on its territory. Two dozen people have been killed in Gulf states and the occupied West Bank. In Lebanon, officials said more than 1,200 people have been killed, and more than one million have been displaced. The UN Security Council planned to convene an emergency session on Tuesday after officials said three peacekeepers in southern Lebanon had been killed in less than 24 hours, in the region where Israel is battling the Iran-backed Hezbollah. The UN peacekeeping mission did not say who was responsible for the deaths. Ten Israeli soldiers have died in Lebanon. In Iran, authorities say more than 1,900 people have been killed, while 19 have been reported dead in Israel. (Source: The Irish News - Ireland / Associated Press - U.S.)
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