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Europe
Belgium
October 29, 2025 This past summer, Belgian officials announced that the country would increase its F-35 acquisition from 34 to 45 aircraft, with the initial fleet to be operational by 2031. The Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II fighter jets will replace the Belgian Air Force’s aging fleet of F-16s, with Brussels pledging to supply 30 of its 45 Fighting Falcons to Ukraine beginning next year. Earlier this month, NATO member Belgium welcomed its first four Lightning IIs, which will equip the Belgian Air Force’s 1st Squadron at Florennes Air Base in Wallonia. Belgium is just 30,843 square kilometers in total area, including water, and measures only around 300 kilometers from end to end. Given the aircraft’s tremendous speed, training effectively while remaining within the country’s tiny airspace simply isn’t possible. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
October 27, 2025 The massive Port of Antwerp acts as a gateway for illegal narcotics to enter Belgium - and Europe more widely. Drug-trafficking is turning Belgium into a narco-state and the rule of law is under threat, an Antwerp judge wrote in an anonymous letter published today asking the federal government for urgent help. 'Extensive mafia-like structures have taken root, becoming a parallel power that challenges not only the police but also the judiciary'. The judge notes that money-laundering networks drive up real-estate costs, the corruption penetrates state institutions and kidnappings can be ordered on Snapchat. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
European Commission
(Wednesday), 29/10/2025 Ukraine is the third largest import partner for the European Union after Brazil and the UK. The EU’s new import agreement with Ukraine 'designed to further liberalise trade' between the EU and Kyiv comes into effect today. Adopted on 13 October, 'it will replace the deal in place since 2016, by expanding tariff-free access for Ukrainian goods and services'. However the new agreement has become a political headache for the European Commission. Hungary, Poland and Slovakia are not lifting bans on Ukrainian agricultural imports - a move that underscores the challenges of integrating Ukraine’s vast farming sector into the European Union. 'Although Brussels wants to give farmers’ money to Ukraine, we are protecting the resources, the livelihoods of Hungarian producers and our market,” Hungarian Agriculture Minister Nagy wrote on Facebook on Monday, as he and his EU peers met in Brussels. How Ukraine’s enormous agricultural capacity - 42 million hectares of cultivated land, the largest in Europe - would affect the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which distributes funds based on farm size? Romanian President Dan, whose country also borders Ukraine, have spoken openly about the issue. According to him, the risks of imbalances for the EU are significant, especially since Ukraine 'does not currently meet the standards that we impose on the agricultural sector in the EU." (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)
28/10/2025 Nordic leaders have ruled out the idea of issuing common debt at the European Union level to provide a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine, insisting the money should come from immobilised Russian assets rather than national budgets - project, known as a 'reparations loan', which was blocked last week by Belgium, which holds the bulk of the frozen assets from the Russian Central Bank. Member states, and Belgium in particular, are waiting for the Commission to present its options paper, which might lay out 'alternatives, such as loans and grants for Ukraine backed by the EU budget, national contributions or a mix of both'. (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)
October 27, 2025 Commission chief der Leyen eyes final signing of Mercosur deal on Dec. 20. She would jet into Brazil to ink the accord as long as EU capitals give the green light. EU leaders plan to hold their final summit of 2025 on Dec. 18-19. Initially, the expectation was for the partnership agreement to require unanimous support - as is usually required when deals touch on areas of national competence, such as investment and political cooperation. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
Russia
October 29, 2025, 11:26 AM As of 2025, energy is as much a vulnerability as it is an asset. The U.S. government appears to have coordinated with the EU and United Kingdom. Among the factors making this obvious are Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure, ’the EU’s phaseout of Russian oil and gas purchases’, and U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Last week, the EU adopted the 19th sanctions package against Russia. On Oct. 15, the U.K. unveiled sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, as well, alongside sanctions on India’s Nayara refinery, four oil terminals in China, and 44 shadow fleet vessels. The new sanctions will complicate doing business with the Russian majors as financing, insurance, and shipping costs go up. China and India appear to have reduced or even suspended oil purchases. Yet they can resume imports, should the Trump administration shift its focus away from Russia. Furthermore, both Rosneft and Lukoil hold assets across Europe and elsewhere in the world. If they somehow win exemptions, the sanctions’ impact will be mitigated. The privately-owned Lukoil announced it would be selling its international assets. In the aftermath of its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian exports of crude stayed at a stable 5 million barrels per day. Refined product found its way to the European market. Russia’s annual energy revenues averaged around $190 billion, or around 9 percent of its nominal GDP, in 2024. Oil is even more important to the Russian economy than gas, and Rosneft and Lukoil account for around 50 percent of Russia’s upstream production of it. The state-owned Rosneft alone contributes about 17 percent of the Russian Federation’s budget revenues. Since August, Ukrainian drones ’have hit 21 of Russia’s 38 large refineries’ which have a combined capacity of around 123 million tons per year or 45 percent of Russia’s total output. Combined with strikes against storage and pipeline capacity, the total damage is estimated at about $706.5 million. These strikes have also forced Russia to shift its exports from refined product to crude oil, which reduces profits. The price cap currently stands at $47.6 per barrel. Gasoline shortages are starting to affect ordinary Russians as several regions have reported empty filling stations and lines of motorists. In 2021, Russia accounted for 45 percent of the EU’s gas imports. Now, that share is down to 11 percent. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) from global suppliers, including the United States, replaces Russian imports. ’This week, EU energy ministers approved legislation that requires companies to phase out long-term contracts - whether pipeline gas or LNG - by the end of 2027’. The deadline for most short-term contracts is next January. As a result, even countries such as Hungary and Slovakia ’will have to find other suppliers’. Some of Russia’s gas might still end up in Europe via intermediaries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. But while this might result in limited profits for Russia, it won’t come with geopolitical influence to build cozy relationships with governments and national champions throughout Europe. Moscow discovered that consumers wield as much power as producers. Russia was able to switch some of the gas flows from the EU to China, where sales jumped from 16.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 to a record 31 bcm in 2024. During Putin’s visit to Beijing in September, China and Russia signed a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which could add another 50 bcm. Even after the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which will connect Urengoy in northern Russia to China’s gas grid via Mongolia, comes online, its volume would be far below the 155 bcm that the EU imported in 2021. Beijing is driving a hard bargain on the price and other commercial conditions around the contracts with Russia. Russia will probably take a Chinese loan to finance the pipeline’s construction, and it will be receiving payments in yuan, tying it even closer to China. Domestic prices have risen by roughly 30 percent since the start of the war, adding to Russia’s problem with inflation. Russia is still a major player on the world’s energy market. It accounts for around 10 percent of global oil production and 15 percent of global natural gas production. The Russian economy has proven resilient, with the likes of China and India helping Moscow fend off Western sanctions. But military Keynesianism - pumping money generated by the sale of commodities abroad to boost the defense industries, salaries in the state sector, and welfare spending - is running its course. With growth falling from 4.3 percent of GDP to a projected 1-1.3 percent in 2025 and 2026, new Western energy sanctions are adding to chronic stagnation. The international oil market has remained surprisingly stable, as OPEC+ announced plans to raise output. To maintain stability, the government must dip deeper into the state budget. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
by Bechev, director of the Dahrendorf Programme at St. Antony’s College’s European Studies Centre, the author of Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe and Turkey Under Erdogan.
North America
United States
October 30, 2025, Thursday Are the world’s major powers once again on the brink of an arms race unseen since the Cold War? US President Trump has announced that the United States will resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time in three decades. ’Because of other countries' testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately,’ the President posted on Truth Social. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, signed by President Clinton in 1996 but never ratified by the US Senate, has prohibited all nuclear explosions worldwide. In 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification of the treaty, claiming the move was necessary to maintain parity with Washington. Moscow stated it would only resume nuclear tests if the United States did so first. Trump’s new order effectively meets that condition. The announcement came just a day after Russian President Putin confirmed Moscow had successfully tested the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone. Poseidon is a massive, unmanned underwater vehicle reportedly measuring around 20 meters in length and weighing about 100 tons. Russian media claim it can travel at speeds of up to 200 kilometers per hour, dive deeper than 1,000 meters, and strike coastal regions with devastating radioactive waves. The recent test of the Poseidon followed Moscow’s successful launch of a Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile on October 21, and subsequent nuclear launch drills the following day. Putin also recently signed a law terminating a long-defunct plutonium disposal agreement with the United States, which had been intended to limit the production of weapons-grade plutonium. The original deal, signed in 2000, required both nations to dispose of 34 tons of such material no longer needed for military use. Resuming tests would be seen by both Russia and China as a direct assertion of American strategic dominance. The move underscores a growing tension between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing over nuclear modernization. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)
(30 October 2025) Between 1945 — with the first ever atomic bomb test in New Mexico on July 16 - and 1992, the United States has conducted 1,054 nuclear tests and carried out two nuclear attacks on Japan during World War II. The last US nuclear test explosion was in September 1992, with a 20-kilotonne underground detonation at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site. In October 1992, then-President Bush imposed a moratorium on further tests, which was continued by successive administrations. Nuclear testing was replaced by non-nuclear and subcritical experiments using advanced computer simulations. (Source: TRTWorld - Turkey)
Caribbean
Jamaica
Oct 28, 2025, 05:42 AM EDT Hurricane Melissa, the devastating Category 5 storm with 295 kph winds, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history since recordkeeping began 174 years ago, makes landfall in Jamaica. Jamaica’s highest mountains could see gusts of up to 322 kph. A life-threatening storm surge of up to 4 meters is expected across southern Jamaica. 'There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5," Prime Minister Andrew Holness said. "The question now is the speed of recovery." The storm is expected slice diagonally across the island and head for Cuba. (Source: Huff Post - U.S.)
Trinidad and Tobago
Oct 28, 2025 Trinidad has a population of about 1.4 million people. It is sometimes used by smugglers to store and sort drugs before shipping them to Europe and North America. Trinidad is now hosting one of the U.S. warships involved in a campaign to destroy Venezuelan speedboats allegedly carrying drugs to the United States. Venezuelan President Maduro said that he was left with no choice but to pull out of treaties signed with Trinidad ten years ago. A 2015 agreement enables neighboring countries to carry out joint natural gas exploration projects in the waters between both nations. Trinidad and Venezuela are separated by a small bay that is just 11 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. (Source: The Korea Times - South Korea / AP - U.S.)
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