Egyik 19

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(Continuation)

Balkans

The EU’s China policy: no clear policy. The EU has framed its China strategy around three coexisting tracks: partnership, competition and rivalry, pulled the strategy in different directions in recent years, weakening the original compromise and producing fragmented policy. Rhetoric remains strong in the cooperation track, particularly on climate change, green industries and AI. Practical cooperation is limited and has now become mostly ritualistic, centred on ceremonial summitry statements of little consequence. China’s dominance in rare earth minerals, and its willingness to use that dominance to achieve its geopolitical goals, has foreclosed substantive cooperation, pushing Europe to seek out other partnerships in this field. In relation to AI, the EU and China have exchanged views, but they have not undertaken any substantive discussions on AI governance. This space is becoming an arena for competition with China, as the EU launches initiatives such as InvestAI (€200bn) and its AI Gigafactory Fund (€20bn). Competition is ranging from electric vehicles, specialised machinery, advanced manufacturing, electrical equipment, chemicals, renewable energy technologies, high-tech products and more. China has shown little appetite to change its industrial model - subsidies, export support, overcapacity and restricted market access for foreign firms reinforcing the competitive dynamics of the past few years. The EU and China are increasingly facing each other off in third markets across the globe, particularly in South-East Asia and Latin America. During the second Trump administration both the EU and China seek to diversify away from a protectionist America. Beijing’s intransigent refusal to address EU concerns over unfair trade practices is also producing systemic effects, even if the EU hesitates to define them in this manner, as tensions with US president Trump are so heightened. For similar reasons, Britain has refrained from including China in the top tier of its covert foreign influence register.    Drifting towards decoupling, a total disentanglement across all sectors. In practice, however, competition is accelerating, undermining the possibility of a deliberate policy choice. As the EU tries to reverse asymmetries with China (like unequal market access) that is facing strong Chinese resistance. In this context, not only is the EU itself likely to continue to clash with China, but some member states such as France are even keen to go further and apply much wider, generalised tariffs in order to protect French and EU industries from China.    Trade with China has become increasingly complicated. A patchwork of measures against Beijing: The EU’s recent actions make the direction clear: it is moving towards decoupling. The EU has rolled out a suite of legal instruments aimed at boosting its economic security and strategic autonomy: The Anti-Coercion Instrument (2023) - the EU has considered using it amid trade tensions with China and the US; The Foreign Subsidies Regulation (2023) -  targets distortions which have granted unfair advantages to non-EU firms, especially Chinese ones, in acquisitions and public procurement contracts; The EU’s International Procurement Instrument (2022) - used for the first time in June 2025, it ensures reciprocity in access to international procurement markets, addressing the difficulties EU companies have faced in China when competing in its expanding procurement market. It was partially restricting Chinese medical device manufacturers’ access to the EU’s €150bn market in response to barriers faced by EU firms in China.    The European Commission has initiated several proceedings against major Chinese online retailers. These include the Chinese marketplace AliExpress not doing enough to prevent the sale of counterfeit goods and unsafe products. Whether to impose sanctions is still pending. The commission has also initiated an investigation into Chinese retailer Shein for potentially violating EU consumer protection linked to sale of illegal goods. In October 2024, it opened formal proceedings against Temu, Chinese retail platform, for potential violations of the Digital Services Act, examining whether Temu has sold non-compliant products, as well as its recommendation algorithm and the allegedly addictive design of the platform.    At the member-state level, Italy and Germany have attempted to block the transfer of private data of EU citizens by DeepSeek, the Chinese AI-powered chatbot. This practice of individual EU member states could expand in the future.    The development of a China conditionality defining and implementing conditions for the Western Balkan candidates to engage with China remains a work in progress. Historically conditions focused on political, economic and legal reforms were monitored during the accession process to ensure alignment, their implementation by the prospective EU member state is deemed essential for integration into the EU.     Accession in the region is at markedly different stages.   Kosovo lacks a clear path forward.   Montenegro deep into the process which is advancing while any possible China conditionality is still in development. That gap stems mostly from the absence of a stable, EU-wide consensus on China.    Steps towards the China conditionality continue to resemble a loose collection of principles rather than a well-defined and coherent structure of conditions, laws and practices expected from the Western Balkan countries. ’Ideally’, what should be in question is a wider Western conditionality that incorporates shared US and EU interests, albeit in a political rather than institutional context. This could cover areas such as export controls, investment screening and data security. So far no structured dialogue has taken place between the EU and US to arrive at a common understanding on a China-related conditionality beyond some ad hoc considerations, for instance in the area of security. Washington and the respective capitals in the Western Balkans remain focused on regional stability and increased economic engagement. As things stand, the EU and the US are more likely to pursue the fulfilment of their conditions separately. With the EU, the US administration is grappling with an unclear and evolving China policy - for example export restrictions on chip manufacturing software. Likewise, export controls on Nvidia’s powerful H20 chip, vital for AI development, have been inconsistent. The US has also all but ceded green energy as an area of rivalry, given its dismissive approach to the sector. The current US administration does not have a structured China containment policy.    Including the China element in accession negotiations: Recent updates on membership talks with Serbia show very few chapters in which China is discussed - for instance, Chapter 30 (external relations); chapter 31 (foreign, security and defence policy) are even listed in some detail, but not as a point of conditionality. Chapter 5 (public procurement) does not set out corrective measures.    Accession chapters, which  could address China-related issues: Chapter 5 (public procurement), barely mentioned in the Montenegro process; Chapter 10 (digital transformation and media), which could incorporate China’s penetration in 5G networks in the Western Balkans and the role of Chinese actors in the media; Chapter 19 (social policy and employment), which could address frequent violations of labour law by Chinese companies in Serbia; Chapter 31 (foreign, security and defence policy), which could tackle the growth of Western Balkan defence and security ties with Beijing.    Instances of non-compliance with EU law are already emerging. In the area of public procurement, Montenegro has signed and prepared numerous bilateral agreements which contain non-competitive clauses in relation to public tenders in different sectors. The case of the Bar-Boljare motorway, for example, simply appointed the China Road and Bridge Corporation as the executer of the project, bypassing competitive tender. Such clauses exist in agreements with the UAE (in tourism and real estate) and Hungary (in road and rail transport and infrastructure).    Integration and political promiscuity: More than two decades since the prospect of EU membership was presented to the Western Balkan states, progress has stalled. The geopolitical context shifts. Today, the practice of interacting with many actors in order to obtain concessions from all of them, is the norm in the region. China’s central feature is a society-based approach to engagement. It is now increasingly engaging directly with societal groups across numerous areas, such as trade, defence, culture, academia, media and more. China’s influence is also driven by acquisitions of local companies, assets and infrastructure. Financial lending now goes beyond the Belt and Road Initiative and other state-led frameworks, with Chinese firms and banks deploying finance and direct investments in various sectors. The EU’s longstanding three-element formula of cooperation, competition and rivalry no longer reflects the real dynamics of the EU-China relationship. The dominant theme is competition and there remains a lack of consensus among member states on how to define and approach relations with Beijing. In recent years, the use of instruments resemble a patchwork. ’But they all point to increasing confrontation’ in numerous domains. The European Parliament monitoring and adopting resolutions on Chinese actions in south-eastern Europe, is often more critical than the European Commission. The China conditionality is defined in a broader context with the participation of the US, both between Brussels and Washington and between the US and the countries of the Western Balkans. This process is presently complicated by the absence of clear American policy towards China, and the transactional tendency of the US administration ’which has sidelined security considerations’. Elites in the region increasingly face a dilemma between political integration and promiscuity, with multiplying evidence pointing to a preference for the latter.    Recommendations:   Be more decisive about enlargement and about China: The EU continues to follow its three-element policy formula towards China, which has little operability in the enlargement context. Create a balance between requirements and incentives. The EU enlargement process has morphed into an endless game of defining and communicating requirements and conditions without a clear time horizon. A better balance between requirements and incentives would go some way towards countering this imbalance.   Define a firm timeline for accession: Generations of citizens, thousands have emigrated from the region in pursuit of their individual European dreams, while many continue to plan this journey. Companies and various institutions also define and implement strategies on the basis of no realistic timeline of EU membership. Embedding these strategies in a European framework would be much easier with a firm time horizon of EU accession. The EU needs to engage wider society and citizens, the ultimate beneficiaries. Integration is about creating and embedding linkages between citizens, companies, civil society, local and regional authorities, and cultural and academic structures. (Source: The European Council on Foreign Relations – Headquarters in Berlin)
by Shopov, a visiting fellow with the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, with 20 years of experience. He is a graduate in political science and comparative politics from Sofia University St. Kliment of Ohrid and the London School of Economics and Political Science. He has also studied in Oxford University, London University (Queen Mary College), New School for Social Research, California State University, Peking University and King’s College London. He was adviser on EU affairs to the minister of home affairs (1997-1998), counsellor at the Bulgarian mission to the EU in Brussels (1998-2001), EU adviser at the British embassy in Sofia (2002-2003) and adviser to the minister of foreign affairs (2014-2017). He has worked with numerous companies from Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain, Sweden, UK, US and others. Shopov has also worked with the European Parliament, MEPs, the European Commission, the British Council „and many other European and Asian policy and research centres”.

Note:
About 'conditionalities'... from the Balkans, near the aging Italy, Turkey, without mentioning Greece, Bulgaria... far from the European Union's interests led (astray) by Germany... What is so amazing about the Balkans being an area of infiltration for larger powers, Hungary being almost the only one within the Union that continuously represents cooperation and advocates for the accession and inclusion of the countries of the region in the EU ?

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Europe

Belgium
04.11.2025  An investigation by several European media outlets revealed today that hundreds of millions of location data points from mobile phones in Belgium, including those belonging to employees of EU institutions, NATO headquarters, and military bases, are being sold. More than 1,000 phones were located within NATO sites, according to the report. Investigators said they were able to identify several senior European officials, including three holding high-level positions in EU institutions, whose movements matched their home and workplace locations. Data brokers reportedly offer access to location datasets for Belgium for prices ranging from $24,000 to $60,000 per year, covering up to 700,000 tracked phones per day. Experts warned that, despite being marketed as "anonymous," location data can easily be de-anonymized. Research shows that knowing only two points of reference, such as a person's home and workplace, can be enough to identify them with 95% accuracy. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

November 3, 2025  Belgium’s defense minister Francken said a series of unidentified drones flying over the Kleine-Brogel Air Base in northern Belgium that is reported to house U.S. nuclear weapons could be part of a spying operation. Multiple drones were spotted above over the weekend. Nuclear watchdogs have reported the base as home to U.S. nuclear bombs under NATO weapons sharing agreements. 'They [the drones] come to spy, to see where the F-16s are, where the munitions are, and other highly strategic items,' Francken told. 'A drone jammer was used, but without success... A helicopter and police vehicles pursued the drone, but lost it after several kilometers,' he said. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

The Netherlands
30 October 2025  The Liberal Democrats (D66) party has claimed a narrow but decisive win in the Netherlands’ snap general election, eclipsing Wilders’ 'hard-right' Party for Freedom (PVV). With almost 100 per cent of votes counted, D66 is on course for 26 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, equal to the PVV’s projected 26. On that result, a left-wing government with D66, VVD, Labour-GreenLeft alliance (PvdA-Groenlinks) and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) party, would appear the most obvious, although a more right-leaning one, with JA21 and without Socialists and Greens of PvdA-Groenlinks, is also a theoretic possibility. The outgoing cabinet, the most Conservative in decades, faltered on ambitious pledges for border controls and affordable housing, exacerbating a crisis with a shortfall of 400,000 homes and rents spiralling. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)

European Commission
November 4, 2025  The European Commission said today that the EU could welcome new members as early as 2030. It praised Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova. The Commission criticised Serbia. It accused Georgia. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Asia

Japan
Oct 31, 2025  A day after US President Trump said he has granted South Korea approval to build a nuclear-powered submarine in a Philadelphia shipyard, which would allow Seoul to join six nations with such vessels, Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi reiterated today that all options are on the table to strengthen Japan’s defence capabilities, including the use of nuclear power to propel Japanese submarines. Mr Koizumi took the ministerial post in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet on Oct 21. South Korea is an important neighbour and partner we should cooperate with when dealing with various issues facing the international community, Mr Koizumi said. He stressed the importance of Japan-South Korea security cooperation and trilateral cooperation involving the United States, citing North Korea’s recent test-firing of missiles. Opponents of nuclear propulsion argue that developing nuclear-powered submarines would contradict Japan’s constitutional limits of self-defence. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / Kyodo News - Japan)

Philippines
02.11.2025  Canada today became the fifth country to sign a visiting forces defense agreement with the Philippines, allowing the two nations to deploy military personnel in each other’s territory and expand defense collaboration. The signing came after the recent Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MMCA) in the West Philippine Sea involving the Philippines, the US, Australia, and, for the first time, New Zealand. This agreement is following the signing of such agreements with the US in 1998, Australia in 2007, Japan in 2024, and New Zealand in April 2025. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Caribbean

Haiti
October 31, 2025  Hurricane Melissa death toll nears 50, mostly in Jamaica and Haiti, as it hurries through Cuba toward Bermuda. (Source: CBS News / AP = U.S.)

North America

United States
Nov. 3, 2025  In February, the State Department designated six Mexican drug cartels, as well as MS-13 and the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, as foreign terrorist organizations, giving U.S. spy agencies and military units sweeping legal authorities to conduct espionage and covert operations targeting the criminal networks. In April the Trump administration was considering launching drone strikes on drug cartels in Mexico. President Sheinbaum already has allowed the CIA to expand surveillance flights. Under her leadership, Mexico has deployed 10,000 troops to the U.S. border, increased fentanyl seizures and extradited 55 senior cartel figures to the U.S. “I have great respect for the president, a woman that I think is a tremendous woman,” Trump said last month. “She’s a very brave woman, but Mexico is run by the cartels.' The Trump administration has begun detailed planning for a new mission to send American troops and intelligence officers into Mexico to target drug cartels. Under the new mission being planned, U.S. troops in Mexico would mainly use drone strikes to hit drug labs and cartel members and leaders. (Source: NBC News - U.S.)

03.11.25  New tests of the US nuclear weapons system ordered up by President Trump will not include nuclear explosions, Energy Secretary Wright, Wwhose agency is responsible for testing, has said. “I think the tests we're talking about right now are system tests,” Wright said in an interview on Fox News. “These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call noncritical explosions.” The US military regularly tests its missiles that are capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, but it has not detonated the weapons since 1992. (Source: The Telegraph - India)

Nov 03, 2025  The first in-person meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in six years focused almost exclusively on trade and technology, resulting in a temporary rollback of tariffs and export restrictions but producing no new agreements or progress on broader security or geopolitical issues. The meeting largely served to stabilize U.S.-China relations and decrease tensions, with both leaders agreeing to reciprocal visits in 2026 for further discussions. (Source: ChinaUS Focus - based in Hong Kong, China)
by Shambaugh, Gaston Sigur Professor and Director of China Policy Program at George Washington University, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Hoover Institution of Stanford University 

October 31, 2025  US President Trump set the refugee admissions ceiling at 7,500 for fiscal year 2026. 100,000 refugees entered under former president Biden in fiscal 2024. Trump said in an annual refugee determination dated September 30 admissions would be focused largely on South Africans from the country’s white Afrikaner ethnic minority. The White House said it would move oversight of refugee support programmes from the state department to the department of health and human services. (Source: TimesLive - South Africa)

South America

Ecuador
01.11.2025  President Noboa rules out US base on Galapagos Islands, citing environmental concerns. The proposal to host a foreign military base, raised by Noboa, a close of US President Trump, had targeted Baltra Island in the Galapagos. Ecuador’s Constitution has prohibited foreign military bases since 2008. The future of foreign military presence in Ecuador will be decided by voters in a Nov. 16 referendum. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Peru
November 4, 2025, Tuesday  Peru has officially severed diplomatic relations with Mexico following the decision of Mexican authorities to grant asylum to former Peruvian Prime Minister Betssy Chávez, who is facing charges for her alleged involvement in the failed coup attempt led by former President Castillo in 2022. She is reportedly staying at the residence of the Mexican Embassy in Lima. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

Venezuela
5 Nov 2025  The US government has linked the Sinaloa Cartel to the Cartel of the Suns, the name given to the state-embedded drug trafficking system that operates in Venezuela, putting connections between any state elements and the Mexican group under a magnifying glass. At the same time, the US military has escalated anti-narcotics operations targeting trafficking from Venezuela to new levels, launching airstrikes against at least nine vessels allegedly carrying drugs in the southern Caribbean that it said left from the Venezuelan coast. Under these conditions, the Sinaloa Cartel and other trafficking networks will likely be turning their attention to safer routes. Zulia in northwest Venezuela is a key corridor for Colombian cocaine destined for international markets. The town of San Felipe was once so awash with brokers from Mexico’s most famous crime group - the Sinaloa Cartel - that it gained the nickname Sinaloa. Mexican traffickers have been retreating from Zulia as the regime of President Maduro has consolidated control over the country’s organized crime landscape. The government appears to be favoring local criminal actors. Zulia’s proximity to the coca-rich region of Catatumbo in Colombia means a significant portion of cocaine produced on the other side of the border makes its way to Zulia. Systematic corruption on the Venezuelan side ensures that drugs can pass freely through the country and be dispatched to the Caribbean and Central America as long as security force officials get their cut. Sinaloa Cartel representatives can sometimes leave a trafficking territory after having solidified relationships with local criminals who work with them. In the end, the Sinaloa Cartel becomes nothing more than a buyer. Since operations of the armed forces in April 2021, Venezuela’s criminal landscape has been more clearly divided into groups that are either allies or enemies of the government. Maduro and other high-ranking officials often favor local criminal actors who they can more easily influence or impact, some of whom even provide an extra layer of protection against potential dissent or function as tools of oppression against political opponents. Drug trafficking in Venezuela is dependent on corruption, with trafficking networks paying off security forces and political actors to be able to operate. As such, it is also possible that in Zulia, the Sinaloa Cartel-linked emissaries failed to pay the right officials, or that officials demanded so much protection money that the Mexicans decided it was no longer an economically viable route. There were also reports of the disappearance of Mexican brokers from Catatumbo, Colombia between 2021 and 2023. Intermediaries representing Mexican drug trafficking organizations began returning in late 2023. (Source: InSight Crime - Colombia)

Tue, November 4, 2025  Zhuravlyov, Russia’s parliamentary defense committee’s deputy chairman, told Russian website Gazeta.Ru, that he sees no obstacles in providing Oreshnik or Kalibr missiles to Venezuela. President Trump has accused Venezuelan President Maduro of being the head of alleged smuggling operation, carrying drugs from Venezuela to the United States that U.S. forces are targeting. Maduro reportedly reached out to Russian President Putin for assistance amid the strikes in the Caribbean. Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, condemned the strikes on Saturday, calling them excessive military force. According to president Trump, he has not made a final decision on expanding the strikes on Venezuelan land. According to the Kremlin, the Oreshnik missile can carry nuclear warheads. (Source: Yahoo / Mediaite = U.S.)

November 4, 2025  Reports over the past week indicate that the United States is expanding its military presence in the Caribbean - a buildup that has fueled speculation about possible strikes against targets inside Venezuela. The Miami Herald and the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump’s administration has identified Venezuelan military installations allegedly tied to drug trafficking networks as potential bombing targets. China today defended its growing cooperation with Venezuela, saying that its engagement with leader Maduro’s government constitutes normal cooperation between sovereign states and is not directed against any third party. China backs Venezuela. The comments, made by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao, followed a Washington Post report that Maduro had sought military assistance from Russia. According to the Post article, Maduro is urgently seeking to strengthen Venezuela’s failing armed forces through military assistance from Russia, China and Iran. The outreach involves soliciting defensive radars, aircraft repairs, drone technology and potentially missiles. In Caracas, Maduro confirmed on Monday that Venezuela and Russia are advancing in what he described as serene and very productive military cooperation. The Venezuelan leader said he maintains daily and permanent communication with Russian President Putin. The Kremlin on Sunday acknowledged contacts with Venezuela, though spokesman Peskov did not confirm The Washington Post’s report that Maduro had formally requested military aid. The two nations are bound by contractual obligations, Peskov told. While Russia is taking the lead - Maduro directly appealed to Moscow - China is part of the same effort. China supports strengthened international cooperation to combat transnational crime and opposes the use or threat of force in international relations, Mao told. She added that China opposes any attempt to undermine peace and stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as unilateral coercive actions against foreign vessels that exceed reasonable and necessary limits. Beijing also urged Washington to carry out regular judicial and law enforcement cooperation through bilateral and multilateral legal frameworks. It is not known what type of aid China has provided or pledged in response to Maduro’s request. Bejing has a significant history of supporting the Maduro regime with billions in loans, surveillance technology and medical aid. The U.S. military has sharply increased its presence off Venezuela’s coast as part of an operation the White House says is aimed at disrupting drug trafficking and criminal networks tied to the Caracas regime. The U.S. military will soon have 13 vessels in the region - including eight warships, three amphibious vessels, and a submarine - marking Washington’s largest military deployment in Latin America since the Gulf War. The newly arrived USS Gettysburg and USS Lake Erie cruisers have joined other U.S. vessels already stationed near Venezuelan waters, and the USS Gerald R. Ford, the Navy’s largest and most sophisticated aircraft carrier, is expected to arrive in days. In August, the mission has included maritime patrols by P-8 reconnaissance aircraft and long-range surveillance flights to map trafficking routes. In September, the deployment was reinforced with 10 F-35B fighters based at Ceiba Air Base in Puerto Rico and armed MQ-9 Reaper drones at Rafael Hernández Airport on the island. U.S. officials say those aircraft can conduct precision strikes against laboratories, clandestine airstrips, vehicles or vessels linked to drug operations. On Oct. 24, Defense Secretary Hegseth ordered the Gerald R. Ford and its strike group - including the cruiser USS Normandy and destroyers USS Thomas Hudner, USS Ramage, USS Carney, and USS Roosevelt - into the Caribbean. The carrier strike group, with more than 4,000 personnel and roughly 90 combat aircraft, is described by retired Venezuelan officers who spoke to the Herald as the centerpiece of a final phase intended to neutralize leaders of the Cartel of the Suns and Tren de Aragua, and to strike fixed and mobile targets inside Venezuela. (Source: Miami Herald - U.S.; "This story was complemented with reporting from El Nuevo Herald’s wire services”).

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Europe

Bulgaria
October 31, 2025  Bulgaria is home to the sprawling Lukoil-owned Burgas refinery, which provides up to 80 percent of the country’s fuel. Bulgaria is exploring requesting an exemption to new U.S. sanctions against Russia’s largest private oil company, as it fears the measures will cause severe fuel shortages and a populist backlash across the country. Now, the government has asked Washington how it should go about requesting an extension to the sanctions beyond their start date of Nov. 21. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

France
November 1, 2025  ’ France is one of two NATO nations, alongside the United Kingdom, to operate its own nuclear arsenal separate from the American nuclear umbrella. The French military currently has an estimated 290 nuclear warheads - the fourth-largest arsenal in the world, behind Russia’s 5,580 warheads, America’s 5,044, and China’s approximately 500. The French nuclear arsenal is completely homegrown. France took its first step in developing nuclear weapons in 1954. It wanted to maintain its independence from other powers, including the United States and the United Kingdom. Spats with NATO in the 1950s and 1960s strengthened Paris’s desire for an independent nuclear arsenal. The French military tested its first nuclear weapon in 1960 and its first thermonuclear munition in 1968. The French Navy has a new nuclear missile, the M51.3 submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missile. It is equipped with new oceanic nuclear warheads (TNO-2) that have a longer range, better precision, and deeper penetration capabilities than France’s existing arsenal. This is the third version of the M51 submarine-launched nuclear warhead. The specific operational range of the new version of the M51 is estimated to be between 5,000 and 6,200 miles. The new nuclear weapon will equip the French Navy’s four Le Triomphant class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. Each submarine can carry up to 16 ballistic missiles, each equipped with an M51.3 nuclear warhead. ’ (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)

Greece
October 31, 2025, Friday  Greece will begin voluntary military service for women in 2026. The initiative, announced by Defense Minister Dendias, will involve the creation of a special unit composed of 100 to 150 female volunteers. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

Russia
01/11/2025 - 6:00 GMT+1  International companies still operating in Russia paid at least $20 billion (€17.2bn) in taxes to the Russian state in 2024 alone. German companies are among them. Since early 2022, the total amount has reached more than $60 billion (€51.8bn). In 2024, US-based businesses paid $1.2 billion (€1bn) in profit taxes to the Kremlin, while German firms spent $594 million (€513.5m). The German government and people have so far provided Ukraine with €44 billion in military, humanitarian and financial aid. Leaving Russia has become increasingly costly. In 2024, the tax on the value of a business sale rose from 15% to 35%. The required discount companies must offer on their asset sales has also increased, from 50% to 60%. For transactions exceeding 50 billion rubles (around 526 million U.S. dollars), companies now need the approval of Russian President Putin. But companies in Russia also make profits. The total turnover of German companies in Russia in 2024 amounted to around $21.7 billion. As of early July, only 503 international companies, or 12%, had fully withdrawn from Russia by selling or liquidating their operations. Nearly one-third (33.2%, or 1,387 companies) had suspended operations or announced plans to withdraw. Meanwhile, 2,287 companies (54.8%) remain active in the Russian market. For German companies, 55% of those active before the invasion are still operating in Russia. (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)

(Thursday, 30 October 2025)  President Putin on Tuesday backed the creation of volunteer units to guard strategic facilities inside the country. Authorities in Russia’s republic of Karelia say they are forming volunteer militias to help defend the country’s border with Finland following Helsinki’s announcement of large-scale military exercises near Russian territory. Local volunteers will assist border guards and help monitor the area. Finland’s military announced this week that it will hold major exercises from November to December involving around 15,000 troops in several regions, including areas along the Nordic country’s 1,340-kilometer border with Russia. The Finnish Army said the drills aim to train conscripts, reservists and active-duty personnel for wartime duties, with forces from allied nations also taking part. (Source: The Moscow Times - Its headquarters were relocated to Amsterdam in the Netherlands in 2022)

Ukraine
November 1, 2025  Why have collapsed the air defenses in Ukraine? Since September, the effectiveness of Ukraine’s Western-provided air defenses have precipitously declined from 34 percent to around 6 percent - or even lower. The Ukrainians will be unable to keep up with the Russian offensives. The US-supplied MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems are increasingly struggling to intercept the Russian 9K720 Iskander-M (and similar Russian systems) in Ukraine. A number of new innovations in Russia’s Iskander missiles have stymied Ukrainian air defenses plunging interception rates to 6 percent - or even lower. Russia has employed trajectory changes to their Iskander missiles when launching them against targets in Ukraine. The Patriot missile system, like most US missile defense systems - including national missile defense networks, like the Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs) at Fort Greeley in Alaska - work on predicting the incoming target’s path and intercepting it based on that prediction. Russian engineers have equipped their Iskander-Ms with radar-decoy devices that can be ejected by the system on its final approach to the target, further confusing the radar and target-track of American and Western missile defense interceptors. Beyond the technical matters, there’s the issue of numbers. The Russians engage in swarming tactics, saturation attacks. In this context, Kyiv is demanding access to large numbers of American Tomahawk cruise missiles. Zelenskyy will attempt to further threaten Russian territories with increasingly advanced strike weapons from the United States, such as the Tomahawk. That, too, will not work - because the Russians have fundamentally overmatched the Ukrainian Armed Forces as well as their Western backers, draining Ukraine and the West of personnel, arms, and money that will be far too difficult to replace in a meaningful timeline. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Weichert. His newest book: A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine.

Thursday 30 October 2025 11:53 GMT  A British national accused of spying for Russia in Ukraine and preparing to carry out terrorist attacks has been arrested yesterday. Ukrainian officials said he initially travelled to Ukraine in 2024 to work as a military instructor, but then posted on pro-Russia forums online saying he was willing to sell information. He was then allegedly contacted by Russia’s secret police, the FSB. The Ukrainian prosecutor’s office said the British national stopped working as an instructor in September 2024 and moved to port city of Odesa. This is the first such case of a British national being accused of spying charges on Ukrainian soil. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

Africa

Mali
31 October 2025  Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate’s militants have blocked fuel entry to cities. Essentially everything from transport of food to equipment to generators, the current blockade has limited all mobility and operations. In the middle of rice and millet harvest season, some agricultural machinery has been rendered inoperable without fuel. JNIM forces now seem intent on isolating the capital, Bamako. The blockade brought the landlocked Sahel nation’s economy to a halt. Recent military coups has driven out UN peacekeepers, French forces, and over 1,000 US troops. JNIM and other terror groups have filled the power vacuum by offering protection and basic services while forcing communities to accept their rule and strict Islamic laws. Their expansion also brings income, as they tax traffic on roads they control. Mali’s crisis began in 2012 when Tuareg separatists and Islamist militants seized the country’s northern half. French forces intervened in 2013. Ghali, a former Tuareg rebel leader helped create JNIM in 2017 by merging several al-Qaeda affiliates. The new terror group immediately pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda’s global leadership. Ghali joined Gaddafi’s Islamic Legion in Libya before returning to lead the 1990 Tuareg uprising in Mali. In the late 1990s, he embraced Salafism after meeting Pakistani missionaries in Kidal. He later maintained ties with then-Malian president Touré, who appointed him envoy to Saudi Arabia. Ghali is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity. He now operates in border areas, particularly near Algeria, where the desert terrain is familiar to him. Now, the JNIM group could consolidate routes across the Sahel in-country and across neighbouring states. It has consolidated control across much of Mali and Burkina Faso and it threatens coastal states such as Benin, Togo and Ghana. Experts estimate JNIM has about 6,000 fighters – a small force in a nation of 25 million. Russia and Turkey are emerging as key supporters of the Malian armed forces. After the Wagner group’s founder Prigozhin died in 2023, control shifted to the Africa Corps, a force under Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU. Photos recently showed helicopters protecting fuel trucks, detailing how Russian assets are now integrated into Mali’s operations. JNIM has openly said it is waiting for government forces to collapse from within rather than launching frontal assaults. The jihadists also view the December seizure of Damascus by a former al-Qaeda affiliate as a blueprint for their strategy. Frustrated by the government’s inability to counter the militants, Mali’s military overthrew the civilian administration in 2020, then sacked its own commander in 2021. Similar coups followed in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger. Now the United States and several European nations have urged their citizens to leave immediately as the security situation deteriorates. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)

Nigeria
(1 November 2025)  "Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria. Thousands of Christians are being killed. Radical Islamists are responsible for this mass slaughter,' Trump claimed in a post on Truth Social yesterday. He said he was putting Nigeria, Africa's top oil producer and most populous country, on a "Countries of Particular Concern' list of nations the US finds have engaged in religious freedom violations. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

Sudan
31 Oct  2025  El-Fasher, the besieged city was the last army stronghold in the sprawling region of Darfur, until it fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on October 26. In the first three days after capturing el-Fasher, the RSF killed at least 1,500 people, according to the local monitor Sudan’s Doctors’ Network. The figure includes the killings of 460 patients and their companions from the local al-Saud hospital, which has also been verified by the World Health Organization. Survivors say the killing in el-Fasher appears to be a systematic attempt to ethnically cleanse the non-Arab population. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

Tanzania
(1 November 2025)  President Hassan has claimed a sweeping election victory, winning more than 95% of the vote in every constituency. State media said she would be sworn in later today. Authorities have blocked the internet, imposed a nationwide curfew, and restricted journalists, key rivals were jailed or barred from a vote. Army chief Mkunda on Thursday described protesters as criminals and pledged support for the president. Opposition party Chadema said that about 700 people had been killed by security forces since protests erupted on election day Wednesday. Chadema was barred from running, and its leader remains on trial for treason. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

Africa
1 Nov 2025  Why Africa has become a hotspot for war? (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)
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Asia

China
Oct 30, 2025  Trump and Xi spoke today morning in Busan. Trump was accompanied by Secretary of State Rubio, Trade Representative Greer, Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, Chief of Staff Wiles, and U.S. Ambassador to China Perdue. Chief of Staff Cai, Foreign Minister Wang, Vice Foreign Minister Ma, Vice Premier He, Commerce Minister Wang, and Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission Zheng accompanied Xi. The deal formalizes a framework agreement between American and Chinese negotiators reached earlier this week. Xi also announced that the U.S. and China reached a consensus, according to Chinese state media. The deal scraps Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff increase, immediately reduces the total tariff rate on Chinese goods, and resolves, at least for now, several of the more contentious trade issues between the U.S. and China. China accounts for around 70% of the world’s supply of critical minerals, which are crucial to the U.S.’s military, semiconductor and auto sectors. China will suspend its rare earths licensing measures for at least a year. China will also resume its purchases of American soybeans, Trump said. Trump also said the Chinese feel very strongly about increasing investments in the U.S. China may also be allowed to buy advanced computer chips from the U.S. Trump said Beijing will speak with Nvidia’s CEO Huang with the U.S. acting as a sort of arbitrator or the referee but that discussions would not involve the most advanced Blackwell chip. The U.S. agreed to suspend Trump’s 24% reciprocal tariff on China for another year, China’s Commerce Ministry said in its statement about the framework agreement. Greer told reporters on Air Force One that the U.S. will also postpone its Section 301 probe into Chinese shipbuilding which would have involved higher port fees on Chinese ships and prompted retaliatory port fees from China on American ships. China will also suspend its countermeasures for one year. Trump said the U.S.’s 20% fentanyl-linked tariff on Chinese goods would be halved, effective immediately and Xi agreed China would take “very strong measures” to reduce the flow into the U.S. of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl. Trump said Xi also agreed to work together with the U.S. to end the war in Ukraine. “We’re both going to work together,” Trump said. 'We agree that the sides are locked in fighting and sometimes you have to let them fight I guess. Crazy. But he’s going to help us and we’re going to work together on Ukraine.” He said talks with Xi did not center on Russian oil, but focused on cooperation to end the war. The security of Taiwan was not discussed, Trump said. U.S. leaders did not say whether a deal for the purchase of TikTok’s U.S. operations, which was part of the framework agreement, was part of the deal reached today. “Both sides should consider the bigger picture and focus on the long-term benefits of cooperation, rather than falling into a vicious cycle of mutual retaliation,” China’s foreign ministry said in a readout after the meeting. (Source: Time - U.S.)

October 30, 2025  The leaders met in a small gray building with a blue roof on a military base adjacent to Busan’s international airport. Busan is a port city in South Korea, about 76 kilometers south from Gyeongju, the main venue for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. When the two were seated at the start of the meeting, Xi read prepared remarks that stressed a willingness to work together despite differences. "Given our different national conditions, we do not always see eye to eye with each other,” he said through a translator. “It is normal for the two leading economies of the world to have frictions now and then.” After a 100-minute meeting with Xi in South Korea, President Trump described his face-to-face with Chinese leader Xi today as a ’roaring success”, saying he would cut tariffs on China, while Beijing had agreed to allow the export of rare earth elements and start buying American soybeans. The U.S. would lower tariffs implemented earlier this year as punishment on China for its selling of chemicals used to make fentanyl from 20% to 10%. That brings the total combined tariff rate on China down from 57% to 47%. The president said they also discussed the export of more advanced computer chips to China, saying that Nvidia would be in talks with Chinese officials. Trump said that he would go to China in April and Xi would come to the U.S. “some time after that.” It continues to be the potential for major tensions between the world’s two largest economies - both nations are seeking dominant places in manufacturing, developing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, and shaping world affairs like Russia’s war in Ukraine. The U.S. and China have each shown they believe they have levers to pressure the other. The past year has demonstrated that tentative steps forward can be short-lived. For Trump, that pressure comes from tariffs. China is the top producer and processor of the rare earth minerals. There is a mutual recognition that neither side wants to risk blowing up the world economy in ways that could jeopardize their own country’s fortunes. The U.S. stock market has climbed on the hopes of a trade framework coming out of the meeting. After their talks, Trump plans to return to Washington. Xi plans to stay on in South Korea to meet with regional leaders during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which officially begins tomorrow and sees an opportunity to position China as a reliable partner. (Source: The Asahí Shímbun - Japan / The Associated Press - U.S.)

29 October 2025  China’s $143 billion push to dominate the global electric-vehicle industry. After years of investing in Europe, Chinese EV and battery firms are turning to Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In the second quarter of this year, 75% of Chinese investment in raw materials went to Africa for the first time, diversifying beyond Asia and Latin America. China is methodically rewiring the global EV supply chain around its industrial and geopolitical interests. Companies like BYD and CATL have expanded operations across the globe for operational and geopolitical reasons. Chinese players are investing in Morocco and Nigeria for critical minerals, expanding their Southeast Asia battery push, and setting up regional production hubs in Mexico and Brazil. Lower costs may be an added benefit. Indonesia and Hungary have been the biggest recipients of Chinese EV funding between 2014 and 2025. Indonesia pulled in $22 billion, Hungary attracted $18 billion, Rhodium data shows. Indonesia started attracting Chinese investment after banning the export of unprocessed ores in 2014. The country is now the world’s largest supplier of nickel, a crucial battery mineral, providing more than two-thirds of the global supply in 2024. Chinese companies control roughly three-quarters of domestic refining capacity in Indonesia. Indonesia is also a massive auto market going green. The government has set ambitious targets to deploy 2 million electric cars and 12 million electric two-wheelers by 2030. Chinese players are not just bringing products but also helping build the domestic supply chain. Because Japan is lagging in EVs, there is an opportunity for the Chinese. Earlier this year, CATL and its partners set up a $6 billion battery plant in Indonesia to create a full supply chain, from nickel mining to battery manufacturing and recycling. In West Java, Indonesia, BYD is building a $1 billion factory expected to be operational in January 2026. Hungary has been strengthening ties with China throughout Viktor Orbán’s 15 years as prime minister, offering tax breaks and infrastructural support. Four of the 10 biggest Chinese investments in Europe last year went to Hungary, and the landlocked nation is on track to become the second-largest battery producer outside of China. Unlike the EU and the U.S., Hungary has no plans to decouple from China. Since 2019, CATL has built plants in Germany, Hungary, Indonesia, and Spain. By next year, the company aims to start mass production at its 100-GWh battery plant in Hungary, announced in mid-2022. BYD’s passenger vehicle factory in Hungary is currently under construction - the first of its kind by a Chinese automaker in Europe. (Source: Rest of World - U.S.)

October 29, 2025  U.S. and Chinese economic officials met over the weekend in Malaysia to build the framework of a trade deal. President Trump today predicted striking a deal with China's leader in a bilateral meeting. "That's better than fighting and going through all sorts of problems," he added ahead of the tomorrow meeting with President Xi. "No reason for it." Trump said that he could reduce tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for a commitment from Beijing to curb exports of chemicals used to make fentanyl. The U.S. currently imposes a 20% tariff on Chinese imports, in addition to other tariffs. In response, Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans. The deal would also include China delaying the imposition of export restrictions on rare earths, while the U.S. would hold off on raising tariffs by 100%. The U.S. has raised tariffs so high that it's brought globalization to the verge of breakdown, says Zhu, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University in China. He notes that besides tariffs, the U.S. has raised port fees this month on Chinese-owned or operated ships docking at U.S. ports. And it has proposed barring Chinese air carriers headed to and from the U.S. from flying through Russian airspace. China's airlines have a cost advantage, because Russia allows Chinese carriers to transit their airspace, but not U.S. ones. China's retaliation is to show China and the world that the U.S. can't just keep us cornered, Zhu adds. Trump has also mentioned that he wants to discuss nuclear arms control with Xi, and possibly include China in U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control negotiations. (Source: NPR - U.S.)

(Tuesday), October 28, 2025  U.S. President Trump is scheduled to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi on Thursday in Busan, South Korea, for dialogue. The summit-Trump's first with Xi since beginning his second term in January - is set to take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. Three high-stakes issues: Trade; Tik-Tok; Taiwan. (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

Malaysia
Sunday 26 October 2025  US president Trump has hailed a “historic' ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand after both nations today signed an expansion of the peace deal to end their border conflict. Mr Trump, who is in Malaysia, had used the threat of higher tariffs against both countries to force them to agree to end the fighting that resulted in dozens of deaths and the displacement of hundreds of thousands. The US president announced that the peace deal will save millions of lives. A truce, brokered by Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, was reached on 28 July after Mr Trump said he had spoken to the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia. Both Southeast Asian neighbours in July fought their worst border clashes in a decade that killed nearly 40 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. The clashes saw both sides trade artillery fire and airstrikes along contested stretches of their 817km border. The two countries have competing territorial claims. Earlier this month, Cambodia accused Thailand of broadcasting high-pitched 'ghost sounds' along the disputed border, the country’s human rights commission what it described as psychological warfare. The deal was signed shortly after Mr Trump landed in Malaysia – his first stop on his whirlwind five-day Asia tour. He watched as Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet and Thai prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul signed the expanded ceasefire at the annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), of which both nations are members. Meanwhile, Mr Trump also signed separate economic deals with Cambodia and Thailand today. A White House official said Mr Trump would also sign a critical minerals agreement with Malaysia during the Asean summit. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

Pakistan
October 29, 2025 10:50 AM  Pakistan's defence minister threatened today to obliterate the ruling Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan. The October clashes began after Pakistani air strikes this month on Kabul, the Afghan capital, among other locations, targeting the head of the Pakistani Taliban. The Taliban responded with attacks on Pakistani military posts along the length of the 2,600-km border, which remains closed. Both nations agreed to a ceasefire brokered in Doha on Oct 19, but could not find common ground in a second round of talks mediated by Turkey and Qatar in Istanbul. 'Pakistan does not require to employ even a fraction of its full arsenal to completely obliterate the Taliban regime and push them back to the caves for hiding,' Defence Minister Asif said in a post on X. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore)

South Korea
28 October 2025  Issues expected to top the agenda of South Korean President Lee who will meet U.S. President Trump tomorrow, ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, which Mr Trump will not attend: Trade; Defence and nuclear energy; North Korea; US visas for South Korean workers. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

Turkey
(29 October 2025)  Nationwide festivities mark Türkiye’s 102nd Republic Day. (Source: TRTWorld - Turkey)
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October 28, 2025  Turkey has signed a deal to buy 20 Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft worth $11 billion from Britain. (Source: Daily Ausaf - Pakistan)

28.10.25, 01:59 PM  Earthquake of magnitude 6.1 hit western Turkey, centred in the town of Sindirgi in Balikesir province, at 10.48 pm local time at a depth of 5.99 km. Tremors were felt in Istanbul and nearby provinces. (Source: The Telegraph - India)

South America

Brazil
26/10/2025, Sunday  Brazilian President Lula da Silva sharply criticized the United Nations Security Council during his visit to Malaysia, stating the global body has stopped working and failed to prevent major wars, including the war in Gaza. Lula's comments came during his three-day visit to Malaysia as a guest of honor at the ASEAN summit. (Source: Yeni Şafak - Turkey)

Global

26 Oct 2025  Week in Pictures: From elections in Ivory Coast to Russian strike in Kyiv and "Peace March" in Budapest, Hungary. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)
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Europe

Belgium
October 29, 2025  This past summer, Belgian officials announced that the country would increase its F-35 acquisition from 34 to 45 aircraft, with the initial fleet to be operational by 2031. The Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II fighter jets will replace the Belgian Air Force’s aging fleet of F-16s, with Brussels pledging to supply 30 of its 45 Fighting Falcons to Ukraine beginning next year. Earlier this month, NATO member Belgium welcomed its first four Lightning IIs, which will equip the Belgian Air Force’s 1st Squadron at Florennes Air Base in Wallonia. Belgium is just 30,843 square kilometers in total area, including water, and measures only around 300 kilometers from end to end. Given the aircraft’s tremendous speed, training effectively while remaining within the country’s tiny airspace simply isn’t possible. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)

October 27, 2025  The massive Port of Antwerp acts as a gateway for illegal narcotics to enter Belgium - and Europe more widely. Drug-trafficking is turning Belgium into a narco-state and the rule of law is under threat, an Antwerp judge wrote in an anonymous letter published today asking the federal government for urgent help. 'Extensive mafia-like structures have taken root, becoming a parallel power that challenges not only the police but also the judiciary'. The judge notes that money-laundering networks drive up real-estate costs, the corruption penetrates state institutions and kidnappings can be ordered on Snapchat. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

European Commission
(Wednesday), 29/10/2025  Ukraine is the third largest import partner for the European Union after Brazil and the UK. The EU’s new import agreement with Ukraine 'designed to further liberalise trade' between the EU and Kyiv comes into effect today. Adopted on 13 October, 'it will replace the deal in place since 2016, by expanding tariff-free access for Ukrainian goods and services'. However the new agreement has become a political headache for the European Commission. Hungary, Poland and Slovakia are not lifting bans on Ukrainian agricultural imports - a move that underscores the challenges of integrating Ukraine’s vast farming sector into the European Union. 'Although Brussels wants to give farmers’ money to Ukraine, we are protecting the resources, the livelihoods of Hungarian producers and our market,” Hungarian Agriculture Minister Nagy wrote on Facebook on Monday, as he and his EU peers met in Brussels. How Ukraine’s enormous agricultural capacity - 42 million hectares of cultivated land, the largest in Europe - would affect the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which distributes funds based on farm size? Romanian President Dan, whose country also borders Ukraine, have spoken openly about the issue. According to him, the risks of imbalances for the EU are significant, especially since Ukraine 'does not currently meet the standards that we impose on the agricultural sector in the EU." (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)

28/10/2025  Nordic leaders have ruled out the idea of issuing common debt at the European Union level to provide a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine, insisting the money should come from immobilised Russian assets rather than national budgets - project, known as a 'reparations loan', which was blocked last week by Belgium, which holds the bulk of the frozen assets from the Russian Central Bank. Member states, and Belgium in particular, are waiting for the Commission to present its options paper, which might lay out 'alternatives, such as loans and grants for Ukraine backed by the EU budget, national contributions or a mix of both'. (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)

October 27, 2025  Commission chief der Leyen eyes final signing of Mercosur deal on Dec. 20. She would jet into Brazil to ink the accord as long as EU capitals give the green light. EU leaders plan to hold their final summit of 2025 on Dec. 18-19. Initially, the expectation was for the partnership agreement to require unanimous support - as is usually required when deals touch on areas of national competence, such as investment and political cooperation. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Russia
October 29, 2025, 11:26 AM  As of 2025, energy is as much a vulnerability as it is an asset. The U.S. government appears to have coordinated with the EU and United Kingdom. Among the factors making this obvious are Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure, ’the EU’s phaseout of Russian oil and gas purchases’, and U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Last week, the EU adopted the 19th sanctions package against Russia. On Oct. 15, the U.K. unveiled sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, as well, alongside sanctions on India’s Nayara refinery, four oil terminals in China, and 44 shadow fleet vessels. The new sanctions will complicate doing business with the Russian majors as financing, insurance, and shipping costs go up. China and India appear to have reduced or even suspended oil purchases. Yet they can resume imports, should the Trump administration shift its focus away from Russia. Furthermore, both Rosneft and Lukoil hold assets across Europe and elsewhere in the world. If they somehow win exemptions, the sanctions’ impact will be mitigated. The privately-owned Lukoil announced it would be selling its international assets. In the aftermath of its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian exports of crude stayed at a stable 5 million barrels per day. Refined product found its way to the European market. Russia’s annual energy revenues averaged around $190 billion, or around 9 percent of its nominal GDP, in 2024. Oil is even more important to the Russian economy than gas, and Rosneft and Lukoil account for around 50 percent of Russia’s upstream production of it. The state-owned Rosneft alone contributes about 17 percent of the Russian Federation’s budget revenues. Since August, Ukrainian drones ’have hit 21 of Russia’s 38 large refineries’ which have a combined capacity of around 123 million tons per year or 45 percent of Russia’s total output. Combined with strikes against storage and pipeline capacity, the total damage is estimated at about $706.5 million. These strikes have also forced Russia to shift its exports from refined product to crude oil, which reduces profits. The price cap currently stands at $47.6 per barrel. Gasoline shortages are starting to affect ordinary Russians as several regions have reported empty filling stations and lines of motorists. In 2021, Russia accounted for 45 percent of the EU’s gas imports. Now, that share is down to 11 percent. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) from global suppliers, including the United States, replaces Russian imports. ’This week, EU energy ministers approved legislation that requires companies to phase out long-term contracts - whether pipeline gas or LNG - by the end of 2027’. The deadline for most short-term contracts is next January. As a result, even countries such as Hungary and Slovakia ’will have to find other suppliers’. Some of Russia’s gas might still end up in Europe via intermediaries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. But while this might result in limited profits for Russia, it won’t come with geopolitical influence to build cozy relationships with governments and national champions throughout Europe. Moscow discovered that consumers wield as much power as producers. Russia was able to switch some of the gas flows from the EU to China, where sales jumped from 16.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 to a record 31 bcm in 2024. During Putin’s visit to Beijing in September, China and Russia signed a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which could add another 50 bcm. Even after the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which will connect Urengoy in northern Russia to China’s gas grid via Mongolia, comes online, its volume would be far below the 155 bcm that the EU imported in 2021. Beijing is driving a hard bargain on the price and other commercial conditions around the contracts with Russia. Russia will probably take a Chinese loan to finance the pipeline’s construction, and it will be receiving payments in yuan, tying it even closer to China. Domestic prices have risen by roughly 30 percent since the start of the war, adding to Russia’s problem with inflation. Russia is still a major player on the world’s energy market. It accounts for around 10 percent of global oil production and 15 percent of global natural gas production. The Russian economy has proven resilient, with the likes of China and India helping Moscow fend off Western sanctions. But military Keynesianism - pumping money generated by the sale of commodities abroad to boost the defense industries, salaries in the state sector, and welfare spending - is running its course. With growth falling from 4.3 percent of GDP to a projected 1-1.3 percent in 2025 and 2026, new Western energy sanctions are adding to chronic stagnation. The international oil market has remained surprisingly stable, as OPEC+ announced plans to raise output. To maintain stability, the government must dip deeper into the state budget. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
by Bechev, director of the Dahrendorf Programme at St. Antony’s College’s European Studies Centre, the author of Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe and Turkey Under Erdogan.

North America

United States
October 30, 2025, Thursday  Are the world’s major powers once again on the brink of an arms race unseen since the Cold War? US President Trump has announced that the United States will resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time in three decades. ’Because of other countries' testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately,’ the President posted on Truth Social. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, signed by President Clinton in 1996 but never ratified by the US Senate, has prohibited all nuclear explosions worldwide. In 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification of the treaty, claiming the move was necessary to maintain parity with Washington. Moscow stated it would only resume nuclear tests if the United States did so first. Trump’s new order effectively meets that condition. The announcement came just a day after Russian President Putin confirmed Moscow had successfully tested the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone. Poseidon is a massive, unmanned underwater vehicle reportedly measuring around 20 meters in length and weighing about 100 tons. Russian media claim it can travel at speeds of up to 200 kilometers per hour, dive deeper than 1,000 meters, and strike coastal regions with devastating radioactive waves. The recent test of the Poseidon followed Moscow’s successful launch of a Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile on October 21, and subsequent nuclear launch drills the following day. Putin also recently signed a law terminating a long-defunct plutonium disposal agreement with the United States, which had been intended to limit the production of weapons-grade plutonium. The original deal, signed in 2000, required both nations to dispose of 34 tons of such material no longer needed for military use. Resuming tests would be seen by both Russia and China as a direct assertion of American strategic dominance. The move underscores a growing tension between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing over nuclear modernization. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

(30 October 2025)  Between 1945 — with the first ever atomic bomb test in New Mexico on July 16 - and 1992, the United States has conducted 1,054 nuclear tests and carried out two nuclear attacks on Japan during World War II. The last US nuclear test explosion was in September 1992, with a 20-kilotonne underground detonation at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site. In October 1992, then-President Bush imposed a moratorium on further tests, which was continued by successive administrations. Nuclear testing was replaced by non-nuclear and subcritical experiments using advanced computer simulations. (Source: TRTWorld - Turkey)

Caribbean

Jamaica
Oct 28, 2025, 05:42 AM EDT  Hurricane Melissa, the devastating Category 5 storm with 295 kph winds, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history since recordkeeping began 174 years ago, makes landfall in Jamaica. Jamaica’s highest mountains could see gusts of up to 322 kph. A life-threatening storm surge of up to 4 meters is expected across southern Jamaica. 'There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5," Prime Minister Andrew Holness said. "The question now is the speed of recovery." The storm is expected slice diagonally across the island and head for Cuba. (Source: Huff Post - U.S.)

Trinidad and Tobago
Oct 28, 2025  Trinidad has a population of about 1.4 million people. It is sometimes used by smugglers to store and sort drugs before shipping them to Europe and North America. Trinidad is now hosting one of the U.S. warships involved in a campaign to destroy Venezuelan speedboats allegedly carrying drugs to the United States. Venezuelan President Maduro said that he was left with no choice but to pull out of treaties signed with Trinidad ten years ago. A 2015 agreement enables neighboring countries to carry out joint natural gas exploration projects in the waters between both nations. Trinidad and Venezuela are separated by a small bay that is just 11 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. (Source: The Korea Times - South Korea / AP - U.S.)

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France
(Sunday), 26 October 2025  Two suspects have been arrested yesterday evening over the theft of precious crown jewels from Paris's Louvre museum. One of the suspects was preparing to travel to Algeria, while it's understood the other was going to Mali. The suspects arrived with a vehicle-mounted mechanical lift to gain access to the Galerie d'Apollon via a balcony close to the River Seine. The only camera monitoring the exterior wall of the Louvre where they broke in was pointing away from the first-floor balcony that led to Gallery of Apollo. A ladder was leading up to a first-floor window. Two of the thieves entered by cutting through the window with power tools. They cut through the glass of two display cases containing jewels. One in three rooms in the area of the museum raided had no CCTV cameras. French police say the thieves were inside for four minutes and made their escape on two scooters waiting outside at 09:38. Items worth €88m ($102m) were taken from the world's most-visited museum last Sunday. (Source: Daily Mirror - Sri Lanka / BBC - United Kingdom)

October 23, 2025  Amid ongoing negotiations on the country’s 2026 budget, French lawmakers have voted in favor of a fivefold increase on the taxation of tech giants. The amendment would raise the digital services tax on tech giants from 3 percent to 15 percent. It would also lift the global revenue threshold from €750 million to €2 billion - shielding smaller national players from the scope of the tax. The proposal was put forward by Cazeneuve, a member of President Macron’s party. This measure clearly shows that we don’t have to wait for Europe, said Coquerel, a left-wing MP who heads up the finance committee. I urge France to work cooperatively to address U.S. concerns rather than doubling down on these discriminatory taxes, Republican U.S. representative Smith, who is chairman of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, wrote in a post on X. The 2026 budget will go to a plenary vote in the National Assembly on Nov. 4. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Germany
23 October 2025  During a summit in London, German Chancellor Merz bows to pressure over immigrants: ‘They’re indispensable.’ Merz’ comments came after some casual remarks of his on migration on October 14 had caused an uproar on the German Left. Many of these also shape the public image of our cities. That is why so many people in Germany and other EU countries  – and not just Germany – are now simply afraid to move around in public spaces, Merz said. He added: 'This applies to railway stations, subway trains and certain parks. This issue dominates certain areas of our cities which is also causing great problems for our police.' In a survey by pollster INSA for newspaper Bild, 43 per cent of respondents said the urban landscape of their hometowns had taken a turn for the worse since 2015. The areas that cause Germans to feel most unsafe are railway stations (51 per cent), parks (35 per cent) and city centres (30 per cent). (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)

21 October 2025  Three armed men stopped a bus on a motorway in Bavaria yesterday at 3:30am, robbing passengers at gunpoint. (Source: Brussels Signal – Belgium)

Lithuania
October 29, 2025  Dozens of balloons carrying illegally transported cigarettes sparked fears for civil aviation and drew rebuke from Vilnius, which described the incursions as a hybrid war tactic 'against the West'. In a statement issued yesterday by the bloc’s top diplomat, Kallas, on behalf of member countries, the EU said it strongly condemns Belarus' 'persistent and provocative actions' after the airborne objects forced Lithuania to close its airports and shut its border with the neighboring nation this week. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

October 21, 2025  Yesterday, prime minister Ruginienė stripped the defense minister Šakalienė of responsibility for the defense industry, after the PM lost trust in her over the defense budget. Ruginienė last week criticized fellow Social Democrat Šakalienė for lobbying on the budget behind the government’s back. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Poland
23 October 2025  In a heated exchange with his Hungarian counterpart Szijjártó on social media yesterday, Polish foreign minister Sikorski has said he hopes that Ukrainian forces succeed in destroying an oil pipeline that supplies Hungary with Russian oil. Orbán, chief political adviser to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (no relation), reacted by accusing Sikorski of war hysteria and of harming Polish-Hungarian relations. The exchange between Sikorski and Szijjártó had started with Sikorski stating he was proud of the court decision earlier in October to set free a Ukrainian who had been detained on an arrest warrant issued by Germany. He was held for his alleged role in destroying the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. 'I am proud of an independent court’s decision that decided that acts of sabotage against an invader are not a crime,' argued Sikorski. Sikorski and Hungary have also been at odds this month over the postponed Budapest summit on the Ukraine war between the Russian President Putin and US President Trump. Poland’s foreign minister warned the Russians that he could not guarantee Putin’s safe passage through Poland’s airspace. Szijjártó reacted to that by criticising the decision. PM Orbán is arguing for peace initiatives and the Poles are backing Ukraine. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)

21.10.2025  Poland, Sweden signed defense pact to boost arms cooperation. Officials from both countries met in Warsaw for the Polish-Swedish Defense Industry Forum. Memorandum aims to enhance cooperation in defense sectors, expand joint initiatives in arms production and military training. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Sweden
22/10/2025  Ukrainian and Swedish leaders signed a cooperation deal, which would see Sweden buy fighter jets from its domestic company Saad before exporting them to Ukraine. They eye export deal for up to 150 fighter jets. (Source: France 24)

Russia
October 29, 2025 11:13am EDT  Russian president Putin hails successful test of nuclear-powered underwater torpedo as a major step in the country’s strategic weapons program. ’For the first time, we managed not only to launch it with a launch engine from a carrier submarine, but also to launch the nuclear power unit on which this device passed a certain amount of time,’ Putin said. The Poseidon’s power significantly exceeds the power of even our most promising Sarmat intercontinental-range missile, he said, referring to Russia's SATAN II model. The Poseidon, first unveiled in 2018, is designed to travel across oceans at high speeds using nuclear propulsion and carry a massive warhead. Putin also cited progress on other strategic systems, including the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, which Moscow says can fly indefinitely and evade missile defenses. Russian officials reported a successful test flight of the Burevestnik earlier in the week as part of a broader demonstration of nuclear readiness. The successful Burevestnik test traveled over 8,700 miles, Russia said. U.S. and NATO officials have not independently confirmed the Poseidon test. The Pentagon declined to comment. (Source: Fox News - U.S. / „Reuters (United Kingdom) and The Associated Press (U.S.) contributed”)

October 29, 2025 2:18 PM GMT  Ukraine targeted Russian energy infrastructure with drones and sent several drones towards Moscow for the third straight night. Its forces had struck Russia's Mariysky refinery in the Mari El region, another in the village of Novospasskoye in the Ulyanovsk region, and a gas plant in the town of Budyonnovsk in the southern Stavropol region, Ukraine's General Staff said. In the Budyonnovsk zone Kyiv attacked the Stavrolen chemical plant, a part of Russia's Lukoil group. Stavrolen is one of Russia's main producers of polyethylene and polypropylene. Russian air defence units destroyed a total of 100 Ukrainian drones overnight, including six over the Moscow region, and the rest over 11 regions and the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, the Russian defence ministry said. Three of Moscow's four airports, and several others around the country, were closed at some point in the night for safety reasons. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

(October 27, 2025) / Oct. 23-26, 2025  Based on open sources, Mediazona ['independent' Russian media outlet] and BBC News Russian, together with volunteers, have verified the names of 140,101 Russian fighters killed in Ukraine, including 15,562 mobilized soldiers. The typical growth rate is 2,000-2,500 new names every two weeks. (Source: Conflict Intelligence Team - headquarters: Tbilisi, Georgia, since 2022)

(October 27, 2025) / Oct. 23-26, 2025  ' An elderly resident of the city of Krasnoyarsk, K., was abducted on the street and forced under threat of violence to sign a contract with the MoD as part of a unit composed of convicts. K. said that on March 18, 2025, he was stopped by unidentified men who offered him to enlist voluntarily. After he refused, they forced him into a car and took him to a draft office, where he was coerced into signing a contract. He was then taken to a Civil Registry Office, where he was forcibly married to an unknown woman so that she could receive his military payments. His bank card was also confiscated. After that, K. was sent to serve attached to the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which is fighting near the town of Pokrovsk and is among the units with the highest casualty rates '. (Source: Conflict Intelligence Team - headquarters: Tbilisi, Georgia, since 2022)

(October 27, 2025) / Oct. 23-26, 2025      Russia’s financial monitoring agency Rosfinmonitoring is adding between 250 and 350 new names each month to its registry of terrorists and extremists. The list now includes 18,771 people. Over the past two years, the share of minors has risen sharply: since July 2025, one in ten new entries has been under 18. The number of Ukrainians has also increased, including prisoners of war and civilians convicted in Russia under 'terrorism'-related charges. As of July 2025, roughly one in five new additions is Ukrainian.     The Southern District Military Court sentenced Ukrainian serviceman Bezkorovainyi of the Azov Brigade to 17 years in a maximum security penal colony. He was convicted of involvement in a terrorist community and undergoing training for terrorism. Prosecutors claimed that Bezkorovainyi joined the Azov Brigade in the fall of 2020 and, for the next two years, served as a tank gunner who 'participated in armed attacks on settlements and shelling of the civilian population.' Bezkorovainyi defended the Azovstal Steel Factory in Mariupol after the start of the full-scale invasion and was taken prisoner in May 2022. (Source: Conflict Intelligence Team - headquarters Tbilisi, Georgia, since 2022)

26 Oct 2025 at 14:51  Russian President Putin hailed the test of a new nuclear-powered cruise missile. The Burevestnik was tested on Oct 21. His military said it flew for about 15 hours, capable of travelling for at least 14,000 kilometres. (Source: Bangkok Post - Thailand)

26 October 2025 6:00am GMT  This month, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) accused Khodorkovsky, who now lives in exile in London, and 22 members of Russia’s Anti-War Committee of plotting a coup. According to the FSB, the committee, which was created to oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine, is vying for the violent seizure of power and overthrow of the constitutional order in the Russian Federation. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)

23.10.2025  AI race: You can maneuver, you can join. (Source: Valdai Discussion Club - Russia)
by Bazlutskaya

October 23, 2025  To Russia, via Cyprus. According to the records reviewed by the reporting team - Russian Secrets, an investigation led by German media outlets NDR, WDR and Süddeutsche Zeitung in collaboration with nine media partners - between 2013 and 2024, companies including Norwegian defense giant Kongsberg, Japanese tech conglomerate NEC and U.S. sonar manufacturer EdgeTech traded with a firm called Mostrello Commercial Ltd. For about a decade, numerous defense companies and maritime suppliers sold sonars, underwater robots, fibre optic cables as well as research vessels and other sophisticated technology worth more than $50 million to the Cypriot entity secretly linked to a Russian defense contractor. The Limassol-based entity was controlled by Strelchenko, a businessman whose Moscow-based companies own vessels and lay under-water cables for the Russian defense department. (All the companies have denied wrongdoing). The equipment was intended for a Russian surveillance system code-named “Harmony,” which relies on a constellation of seabed sensors to detect enemy submarines approaching Russian nuclear weapons located in the Barents Sea, off Russia’s north coast. (Source: International Consortium of Investigative Journalists - based in Washington, D.C., U.S.)

23.10.2025  Russia's position on the Ukrainian conflict remains unchanged, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said, including ensuring reliable neutrality, non-alignment, and Ukraine’s nuclear-free status, its demilitarization and “denazification,” developing solid guarantees for rights and freedoms for the Russian-speaking population, as well as unhindered activities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. "This serves as a starting point in our dialogue with the United States and other interested countries seeking to make constructive contributions to the cause of settlement," she stressed. Zakharova said the Russian side does not see any significant obstacles to continuing the process initiated by the Russian and US presidents aimed at aligning political frameworks for resolving the Ukrainian crisis and filling them with concrete results. "Yes, this is difficult and painstaking work, but it must be done through diplomatic efforts and instruments rather than leaks or provocations," she said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Wednesday 22 October 2025 13:16 BST  Russian President Putin today directed drills of the country’s strategic nuclear forces that featured practice missile launches. The Kremlin said that as part of the maneuvers involving all parts of Moscow's nuclear triad, a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was test-fired from the Plesetsk launch facility in northwestern Russia, and a Sineva ICBM was launched by a submarine in the Barents Sea. The drills also involved Tu-95 strategic bombers firing long-range cruise missiles. Putin emphasized that the maneuvers had been planned in advance. /Source: The Independent - United Kingdom; "Via AP (U.S.) news wire"/

21.10.2025  Trump’s Gaza Peace Deal and Israel’s prospects. (Source: Valdai Discussion Club - Russia)
by Bordachev

October 21, 2025 7:39 PM GMT+2  Russia reiterated its previous terms for reaching a peace deal with Ukraine in a private communique sent to the U.S. over the weekend known as a "non paper" - diplomatic speak for an informal document meant to communicate one party's position to another. The communique reiterated Russia's demand that it take control of all of Ukraine's Donbas region. Russia also reiterated its previous stance in the non paper that no NATO troops be deployed to Ukraine as part of any peace agreement. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

October 21, 2025 1:30 PM GMT+2  Russia said today its conditions for peace in Ukraine remained unchanged since the August summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, and that it was unclear when their next meeting would take place. Lavrov told reporters he was surprised by an unscrupulous CNN report which said that the anticipated Rubio-Lavrov meeting had been put on hold for the time being and that unidentified U.S. officials felt that Russia still had a maximalist stance. "I want to officially confirm: Russia has not changed its position compared to the understandings that were reached during the Alaska summit," Lavrov told reporters, adding that he had told Rubio precisely that. Putin's foreign minister of more than 21 years dismissed European demands to simply halt the war without any deeper understanding of how to address the root causes. One of Putin's most important conditions for ending the war is a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastwards. The Kremlin's conditions for long-lasting peace included that Ukraine would remain non-nuclear and non-aligned - not joining the U.S.-led NATO alliance - as well as protections for Russian-speakers in Ukraine. Putin has repeatedly said he is ready to talk about peace. Ukraine and its European allies have long insisted on an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine at current battle lines before peace talks. Moscow has said it wants Ukraine to cede more territory as one of several conditions it has raised for a ceasefire. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Ukraine
October 26, 2025 at 09:17 am  Kyiv and its surrounding region were under air raid alerts for about 1-1/2 hours before the air force called them off at about 0030 GMT. 14 people were injured in Russia’s overnight air attack on Kyiv. (Source: TimesLIVE - South Africa / Reuters - United Kingdom)

October 25, 2025  Ukraine deludes itself and Saab about its prospects. On the surface, Kyiv’s agreement with Saab to build domestic air defense systems inside Ukraine will help it in its war against Russia. In reality, it will make no difference. (Source: The National Interest – U.S.)
By Weichert

Vatican
(Thursday), 23/10/2025  Today, Pope Leo XIV prayed publicly with Britain's King Charles III at the Vatican in a service broadcast live on Vatican media. It was the first joint prayer meeting between the heads of the English and Roman Catholic Churches since English monarch Henry VIII broke with Rome in 1534. The 76-year-old monarch holds the title of supreme governor of the mother church of Anglicanism. It was Charles's first meeting with Pope Leo, who took over as head of the world's 1.4 billion Catholics in May. The king and queen joined an ecumenical service at midday (1000 GMT) in the Sistine Chapel led by Leo and the Archbishop of York, Cottrell, currently the senior cleric of the Church of England. The service, held beneath Michelangelo's spectacular ceiling frescoes, brought together Catholic and Anglican traditions, with the choir from the Sistine Chapel joined by that of Saint George's Chapel, Windsor Castle. In 1961, the late Queen Elizabeth II, Charles's mother, became the first British monarch to visit the Holy See since the split. Charles has visited the Vatican several times and met privately with Pope Francis on April 9, just days before the pontiff's death. The king sent his son and heir William to the funeral and his brother Prince Edward, the Duke of Edinburgh, to Leo's inauguration mass. The religious break between London and Rome remains. The law was changed in 2013 so that marrying a Catholic would no longer disqualify someone from becoming monarch – although they still have to be a Protestant themselves. Unlike the Roman Catholic Church, the Church of England – the mother church of the world's 85-million-strong Anglican community – ordains women and allows priests to marry. Mullally was recently named the first female archbishop of Canterbury, the Church's top cleric, although she has yet to officially take up her post. Charles and Queen Camilla are also set to take part in a service at the Basilica of Saint Paul Outside the Walls in Rome, one of four major papal basilicas, which has historic links with the English crown. The king will be made a "Royal Confrater" of the basilica and presented with a specially designed seat for use by him and future British monarchs. (Source: France 24 with AFP)

NATO

(October 29, 2025)  The US still has more troops deployed in Europe than it did before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. It is withdrawing some troops from Romania, on NATO’s eastern flank. The US is sending home the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the 101st Airborne Division back to Kentucky and will not be replacing the unit after its scheduled rotation out of Eastern Europe. The Army said the reduction in troops is part of Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s “deliberate process to ensure a balanced U.S. military force posture.” “This is not an American withdrawal from Europe or a signal of lessened commitment to NATO and Article 5,” the Army press release said. “Rather this is a positive sign of increased European capability and responsibility. Our NATO allies are meeting President Trump’s call to take primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe. This force posture adjustment will not change the security environment in Europe.” The Pentagon works to shift its focus away from Europe and toward homeland defense and Latin America. Approximately one thousand American soldiers will remain deployed on our national territory, Romania’s Ministry of Defense said. The US troops will be pulled from Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base on the Black Sea, just across from Crimea which remains under de facto Russian control. NATO defense planners are watching closely to see whether the US moves to further downsize its presence there, since that would likely require that NATO reconsider how allied troops are deployed across the continent. (Source: CNN - U.S.)

.5 10 27 10:28

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Europe

Ireland
October 25, 2025  Ireland elected a lawmaker president, the left-wing, socialist  Connolly in anti-government landslide. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

European Commission
27 Oct (2025)  Europe’s Ukraine loan is a bad bet. France, hovering on the verge of a debt crisis, spends almost nothing on Ukraine. The UK and Germany are the biggest contributors, but even together they can’t begin to fill the gap left by Trump’s decision to cut America’s support for Ukraine to the minimum. Trump will supply weapons only for as long as the cash-strapped Europeans pay for it. But as the latest statistics from the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker attest, there has been a sharp fall in Western military support for Ukraine from an average monthly spend of just under €4 billion in the first half of the year to a little over €2 billion in July and August. This is entirely due to lower spending by Europe. To keep the war going, the Europeans' €150 billion loan to Ukraine should keep the show on the road for another year. But the Europeans still have no strategy for ending the war, yet Putin has good reason to believe he can achieve his military goal of occupying the entirety of the Donbas region. He outspends the West, he has a lot more troops, and he has made some progress recently. The odds are in his favour. If, then, Putin prevails, the peace talks will not only be about the land and the post-war security arrangements. The Russians will want their confiscated assets back. Putin will get his money. And the European taxpayer, who never approved these loans in the first place, will have to pay out, with voters being forced to eat Brussels’ toxic seafood stew. (Source: UnHerd - United Kingdom)

25.10.202  Europe is striving for independence from Chinese critical raw materials, European Commission chief der Leyen says. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Norway
October 25, 2025  Russia is reinforcing its presence at a base in the Arctic Circle, including nuclear weapons pointed towards the United States, according to Norwegian Defense Minister Sandvik. He discussed Russia's military situation - referring to a region of Russia inside the Arctic Circle, near Finland - in an interview with British newspaper The Daily Telegraph that was published yesterday. Russia is building up on the Kola Peninsula…where one of the largest arsenals of nuclear warheads in the world is located. They [the nuclear weapons] are not only pointed towards Norway, but towards the UK and over the pole towards Canada and the US, Sandvik said. He continued: ’We are the eyes and ears of NATO in this area, and we see that they're testing new weapons, for example hypersonic missiles, and they are testing nuclear-driven torpedoes and nuclear warheads.’ Russia bases nuclear weapons on the Kola Peninsula along with its Northern Fleet which was established in 1733. Sandvik argued that ’in the event of war’ with NATO Russia would likely target the Bear Gap, which separates the island of Svalbard from mainland Norway, along with the GIUK Gap between the UK, Iceland and Greenland. Putin needs to control the Bear Gap to make sure that he can use his submarines and the Northern Fleet. And he wants to deny [NATO] allies access to the GIUK Gap, he said. ’They have a new frigate and a new multi-role submarine, developed just in the last two years. The most threatening thing about Russia right now is its submarines. Even though Russia is not able to win in Ukraine, the threat of nuclear warheads and second strike capacity from up here [Kola Peninsula] makes them a superpower still,’ during the interview Sandvik commented. (Source: Miami Herald = Newsweek = U.S.)

Asia

Japan
Oct 27, 2025  During his stay from Oct 27 to Oct 29 in Japan, US President Trump will meet Emperor Naruhito, hold talks with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and make a speech on the USS George Washington aircraft carrier. The US President will also sign deals on critical minerals and shipbuilding. Tokyo is Washington’s closest regional ally. A security treaty obliges the United States to defend Japan if it is attacked and allows US troops to be stationed there - around 60,000 US military personnel currently in Japan. Mr Trump has said he wants Tokyo to pay more to host. If the US were attacked, Japan “doesn’t have to help us at all” and is free to “watch it on a Sony television”, Mr Trump said in his first term. Multiple sexual assaults by American troops in Japan have angered many Japanese over the years. Long-pacifist Japan is adopting a more muscular military stance as relations with China worsen. Ms Takaichi – who only became Prime Minister last week – said on Oct 24 that Japan’s target of spending two per cent of its gross domestic product on defence would be achieved this fiscal year, two years earlier than planned. ’US officials want Japan to spend even more, potentially matching the five per cent of GDP’ pledged by Nato members – except Spain – in June. Japan has moved to acquire ’counter-strike’ capabilities including Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. It plans to deploy domestically developed, longer-range Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles to military bases. Under the terms of their July trade deal, Japan is expected to invest US$550 billion in the US, according to the White House. Japan has said though that only one per cent to two per cent of what Mr Trump calls a signing bonus will be actual investment, with the rest covered by loans and loan guarantees. Most Japanese imports into the US are subject to tariffs of 15 per cent. Japan’s US-bound car exports slumped 24 per cent in September in value terms year-on-year, a blow for an automotive sector that accounts for around eight per cent of jobs in the Asian nation. Washington also wants Japan to stop buying Russian energy, to import US gas and to invest in a long-stalled pipeline project in Alaska. Mr Trump wants Japan to import more American products, including rice and cars, particularly “very beautiful’ Ford F-150 pickup trucks. Japan might buy 100 of them for road and dam inspections, and display some outside the state guesthouse when Mr Trump visits, local media said. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / AFP – France)

Australia

October 25, 2025  President  Trump inks a deal with Australia on critical minerals. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)
Video

North America

Canada
26.10.25 US  President Trump said yesterday he was increasing tariffs on Canada by an additional 10 per cent "above what they're paying now," as he reacted again to an ad by Canada's Ontario province. Trump announced the higher tariffs in a Truth Social post, referencing the ad, which features a video of former President Reagan, a Republican icon, saying that tariffs cause trade wars and economic disaster, job losses and trade wars. The ad does not mention that Reagan was using the address to explain that tariffs imposed on Japan by his administration should be seen as a sadly unavoidable exception to his basic belief in free trade as the key to prosperity. (Source: The Telegraph - India)

United States
Sunday, October 26, 2025  A fighter jet and a helicopter based off the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz both crashed into the South China Sea within 30 minutes of each other today afternoon, the Navy’s Pacific Fleet said. Another aircraft carrier, the USS Harry S. Truman, suffered a series of mishaps in recent months while deployed to the Middle East. In December, the guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg mistakenly shot down an F/A-18 jet from the Truman. Then, in April, another F/A-18 fighter jet slipped off the Truman’s hangar deck and fell into the Red Sea. And in May, an F/A fighter jet landing on the carrier in the Red Sea went overboard after apparently failing to catch the steel cables used to stop landing planes and forcing its two pilots to eject. No sailors were killed in any of those mishaps. (Source: The Washington Times / Associated Press = U.S.)

Oct 24, 2025  President Trump confirmed last week that he had authorized the CIA to engage in covert operations against the Venezuelan government. He said on Wednesday that his administration was moving to target drug cartels on land. The U.S. Navy’s supercarrier USS Gerald R. Ford - currently on a scheduled deployment in the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea on a scheduled deployment - and at least a portion of the rest of its strike group have been ordered to Caribbean waters. American forces are now regularly striking small boats alleged to be involved in drug smuggling. Just earlier today, Secretary of War Hegseth announced the ninth such strike known to have occured since the start of September. To date, seven of the strikes have targeted boats in the Caribbean, while two more have occured in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The impending arrival of the Ford Carrier Strike Group signals U.S. operations in the Western Hemisphere are entering a new phase. Strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats have now become routine, and the possibility that the campaign could extend to targets on land, particularly in Venezuela, continues to grow. There are already multiple Arleigh Burke class destroyers, as well as a Ticonderoga class cruiser, in the region that could also join with Ford and its escorts, including to help provide protection for the carrier. Ford, the Navy’s newest carrier, currently has a full air wing embarked, which includes F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters, EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets, E-2D Hawkeye airborne early warning and control planes, C-2A Greyhound Carrier Onboard Delivery (COD) aircraft, and MH-60R/S Seahawk helicopters. The rest of its strike group includes four Arleigh Burke class destroyers – USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Bainbridge, USS Mahan, and USS Forrest Sherman – and likely at least one attack submarine. It is likely to take Ford at least a week to get back across the Mediterranean and then the Atlantic Ocean. (Source: TWZ - U.S.)

South America

Argentina
(Monday), 27/10/2025  Libertarian president Milei scored sweeping victories in yesterday’s midterm elections, winning key districts - including parts of Buenos Aires for the first time - and securing a strong mandate to advance his free-market agenda, now bolstered by billions in support from the Trump administration. (Source: France 24)

Colombia
October 24, 2025  The U.S. last month added Colombia, the top recipient of American assistance in the region, to a list of nations failing to cooperate in the drug war for the first time in almost 30 years. President Petro has pushed back against the strikes that have killed at least 37 people since they started last month, with the latest two targeting vessels in the eastern Pacific, where Colombia has a coastline. This week, the Trump administration expanded its crackdown to the eastern Pacific Ocean, where much of the cocaine from the world's largest producers, including Colombia, is smuggled. Trump was referring to Petro on social media in recent days as an illegal drug leader. After Trump accused him of having ties to drug trafficking, Petro on Wednesday said he would resort to the U.S. court system to defend himself. A day earlier, Petro's anti-drug policy was the subject of a meeting between him and the U.S. chargé d'affaires in Colombia, McNamara. McNamara also met with Foreign Minister Villavicencio Mapy yesterday. Petro has allowed drug cartels to flourish and refused to stop this activity, Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a statement. The Trump administration imposed sanctions today on Colombian President Petro, his family and a member of his government, Colombian Interior Minister Benedetti, over accusations of involvement in the global drug trade. The leftist leader is one of the closest U.S. allies in South America. Petro has repeatedly defended his policy, which moves away from a repressive approach and prioritizes reaching agreements with growers of coca leaf to encourage them to switch to other crops, pursuing major drug lords and combating money laundering. He has said his government has achieved record cocaine seizures and questioned U.N. figures showing record coca leaf cultivation and cocaine production. The amount of land dedicated to cultivating coca, has almost tripled in the past decade to a record 253,000 hectares in 2023, according to the latest report available from the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime. The U.S. military is sending an aircraft carrier to the waters off South America, the Pentagon announced today. (Source: NPR / The Associated Press = U.S.)

Globalization

October 27, 2025, Monday  The World Justice Project is an international NGO focused on promoting the rule of law worldwide. In the 2025 report - Rule of Law Index - Denmark continues to lead the EU in rule of law performance. Ireland is showing notable progress. Poland 'have registered the largest improvements compared to previous years'. The report highlights that over two-thirds of EU member states have experienced a decline in rule of law standards, with Slovakia and Hungary recording 'the most significant setbacks'. "Bulgaria and Hungary rank lowest' among European Union countries in the index. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

 5 10 28 10:10

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China
October 23, 2025 8:57 PM GMT+2 Updated October 24, 2025  Chinese state oil majors have suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil after the United States imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Moscow's two biggest oil companies. Chinese national oil companies PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Zhenhua Oil will refrain from dealing in seaborne Russian oil at least in the short-term. Unipec, the trading arm of Sinopec stopped Russian oil buying last week after Britain designated Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as shadow fleet ships and Chinese entities including a major Chinese refiner. China also imports approximately 900,000 bpd of Russian oil by pipeline, all of it going to PetroChina, which was likely to be little affected by sanctions. Rosneft and Lukoil sell most of their oil to China through intermediaries instead of directly dealing with buyers. The move comes as refiners in India, the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, are set to sharply cut their crude imports from Moscow, to comply with the U.S. sanctions. While China imports roughly 1.4 million barrels of Russian oil per day by sea, most of that is bought by independent refiners, including small operators known as teapots, although estimates of purchases by state refiners vary widely. A sharp drop in oil demand from Russia’s two largest customers will force the world’s top importers to seek alternative supplies and pushing up global prices for non-sanctioned oil from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Oct 23, 2025  China said today it opposes recent sanctions slapped by the United States on the two largest Russian oil companies over Moscow’s war in Ukraine, saying they had “no basis in international law”. At the same press conference, Beijing's foreign ministry spokesman, Mr Guo criticised sanctions on Russia agreed on Oct 22 by the European Union whose targets included Chinese companies, saying Beijing was “strongly dissatisfied'. “The European side is in no position to make irresponsible remarks about the normal exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Russian enterprises.” (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore)

Gaza
October 22, 2025  Egypt wants the Gaza stabilisation force envisaged in US President Trump's peace plan to be led by US forces and include Turkey, as part of its conditions for participating. Cairo seeks up to 10-year ceasefire to allow Hamas and other armed factions to transform into political groups. US Vice President Vance, US special envoy Witkoff and Mr Trump's son-in-law Kushner were in the Middle East this week to cement the ceasefire and discuss the next phases of the plan. Egypt's chief of intelligence, Rashad, visited Israel yesterday to discuss the plan with US and Israeli officials. He was due to hold talks with Sheikh, Vice President of the Palestinian Authority, and Farag, the Palestinian Authority's intelligence chief, in Cairo later today. After his talks with Mr Vance, the Israeli leader said decisions on the stabilisation force would be made in discussion with the US. However, he appeared to reject any role for Turkey in the force. (Source: The National - United Arab Emirates)

19.10.2025  1 German brigadier general, 2 military staff officers from the Operational Command of the Bundeswehr join US-led Civil Military Coordination Center next week to help monitor ceasefire, coordinate security measures, oversee aid delivery. They will serve uniformed but unarmed at the CMCC in southern Israel. The announcement follows German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's earlier commitment to provide strong political, financial, and technical support for the Gaza ceasefire plan while stopping short of committing troops to the planned International Stabilization Force. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

India
Friday 17 October 2025  US president Trump has claimed that Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has agreed to halt the import of Russian oil during a conversation on Wednesday. That’s a big step. Now I’ve got to get China to do the same thing, Mr Trump told reporters at the White House, referring to Mr Modi. New Delhi has clarified that the discussions on the topic are ongoing. The US has directed its anger towards India for taking advantage of the discounted prices offered by Moscow. The Trump administration imposed secondary sanctions on India with a 50 per cent tariff on goods from the country as a punishment for India’s reliance on Russian energy. “India is a significant importer of oil and gas. It has been our consistent priority to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario. Our import policies are guided entirely by this objective,” Jaiswal, a spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, said in Thursday’s statement. “Ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies have been the twin goals of our energy policy. This includes broad-basing our energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions,” the statement added. “Where the US is concerned, we have for many years sought to expand our energy procurement. This has steadily progressed in the last decade. The current Administration has shown interest in deepening energy cooperation with India. Discussions are ongoing,” it said. India, which is the world’s largest importer of oil, has become a major importer of Russian crude since the start of the war in 2022, from buying almost nothing before the invasion. India imported 1.62 million barrels per day in September, roughly one-third of the country's oil imports. However, China remains the largest buyer of Russian energy through both seaborne and pipeline imports. India has accused Washington of singling out New Delhi as Mr Trump has largely avoided placing similar pressure on China. The US is now ramping up pressure on Japan to stop importing Russian energy. Japan continues to buy Sakhalin Blend crude – a byproduct of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production from the Sakhalin-2 project in Russia’s Far East. The energy source remains crucial for Japan, providing about 9 per cent of its total LNG imports. “Japan will do what it can based on the basic principle of coordinating with G7 countries to achieve peace in Ukraine in a fair manner,” Japanese finance minister Kato told reporters when asked whether Japan was urged by the US treasury secretary Bessent to stop importing Russian energy. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

(October 16, 2025)  India and Brazil today agreed to significantly expand their existing trade agreement between India and the MERCOSUR bloc, deepening the existing Preferential Trade Agreement signed on 17 June 2003. (Source: DD News - India)

Iran
19/10/2025, Sunday  Iran, Russia and China have jointly notified the United Nations - through an official communication sent yesterday to the United Nations secretary-general and the Security Council - that the nuclear agreement with Tehran has been formally terminated, ending the Security Council's consideration of Iran's nuclear program. This development follows the E3's August 28 announcement activating the snapback mechanism, which itself came after the United States' unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement. The three powers criticized the collectively known as the E3 European powers – the United Kingdom, France and Germany - for their handling of the agreement's final stages, for what they described as a legally flawed attempt to reimpose UN sanctions against Iran through the snapback mechanism. The letter argued that these European parties lack the standing to invoke its provisions having themselves ceased to fulfill their commitments under both the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and UN Security Council Resolution 2231. According to the communication, all provisions of Resolution 2231 reached their predetermined conclusion on October 18, 2025, in accordance with the resolution's operative paragraph 8. The Iranian Foreign Ministry separately confirmed that the 10-year period defined by the resolution, originally adopted on July 20, 2015, had officially expired, terminating all restrictions and mechanisms related to Iran's nuclear program as of that date. The three countries called for refraining from unilateral sanctions, threats of force, or any actions that could escalate regional tensions. They urged all parties to maintain commitment to finding a political settlement through diplomatic engagement and dialogue based on mutual respect. (Source: Yeni Şafak - Turkey)

Israel
Thursday 23/10/2025  Israeli Knesset approves West Bank annexation bills in test to US and challenge to peace efforts. US Secretary of State Rubio said the steps taken by parliament and settler violence threatened the Gaza peace deal. (Source: The Arab Weekly - publication put out in London, United Kingdom)

Kazakhstan
October 20, 2025 4:08 PM GMT+2  A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Orenburg gas plant has forced neighbouring Kazakhstan to reduce production at its Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field by 25% to 30%. One of the world's largest gas processing plants, Orenburg was forced to suspend its intake of gas from Kazakhstan after the attack, Kazakhstan's energy ministry said today. Karachaganak produced around 263,000 bpd of oil in 2024. It is exported by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium via a Russian Black Sea terminal, as well as through Russia's Druzhba pipeline to Germany. The field is operated by a consortium which includes U.S. major Chevron (18%) and European energy firms Shell (29.25%) and Eni (29.25%). Russia's Lukoil (13.5%) and local firm KazMunayGaz (10%) also hold stakes. Orenburg is controlled by gas producer Gazprom. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Palestine
16 Oct 2025 - 07:36 pm  Palestinian Prime Minister Mustafa said Gaza's recovery will cost an estimated USD 67 billion, covering infrastructure, governance, and public services. He urged global support for a Palestinian-led, Arab-backed Gaza reconstruction. Mustafa spoke at a Ramallah meeting with 100 international and diplomatic representatives, presenting a recovery plan for Gaza with 56 sub-programs across 18 sectors. Mustafa said Gaza's recovery will be led by Palestinian institutions with global support, unfolding in three phases: USD 3.5 billion for early recovery over six months, USD 30 billion for sectoral rebuilding over three years, and long-term comprehensive reconstruction. (Source: The Peninsula - Qatar)

South Korea
October 20, 2025  South Korean President Lee said today the country will devote a larger-than-expected budget in defence and aerospace research until 2030 as it seeks to build the world's fourth-largest defence industry. Arms have become one of South Korea's fastest-growing exports, especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, inking multibillion-dollar deals selling everything from howitzers and ammunition to missiles and warships around the world. South Korea ranked 10th in arms sales as of 2023, according to data from 'Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI)' top 100 arms companies data. We will establish technological sovereignty by focusing investment on the development of technologies, parts, and materials that must be secured independently, such as special semiconductors in the defence sector, Lee said. He was speaking at South Korea's largest-ever arms fair, the Seoul International Aerospace & Defense Exhibition (ADEX) 2025. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Syria
October 21 2025  "Syria's reconstruction costs are estimated at $216 billion after more than thirteen years of conflict," the World Bank said in its latest report, which it said assessed "infrastructure and building assets, covering the period from 2011 to 2024” "with a conservative best estimate". (Source: Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey)

. 5 10 19 19:15

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Europe

European Commission
20/10/2025  Energy ministers meeting in Luxembourg approved a plan by the European Commission to phase out both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Russia by the end of next year. Under the proposal approved today, ’which is expected to win the support of the European Parliament’, Russian gas imports under new contracts will be banned as of January 1, 2026. Several European countries have increased their purchases of Russian LNG transported by sea. Existing contracts will benefit from a transition period, with inflows under short-term contracts allowed until June 17 next year and those under long-term contracts until January 1, 2028. While sanctions need unanimous approval from the EU’s 27 member states, trade restrictions only require the backing of a weighted majority of 15 countries. Russia currently accounts for 12 percent of EU gas imports, down from 45 percent before its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Hungary, France and Belgium among the countries still receiving Russian gas. Hungary and Slovakia opposed the move. ’The real impact of this regulation is that our safe supply of energy in Hungary is going to be killed,’ Budapest’s top diplomat, Szijjártó, told. His government says the landlocked country needs to import gas from Russia due to geographical constraints. /Source: France 24 'and AFP (France); Reuters (United Kingdom)'/

European Council
23/10/2025  The European Union today agreed the 19th sanctions package targeting Russia’s ’shadow fleet’ of oil tankers and banning imports of Russian liquefied natural gas. It adds 117 vessels to the list of ships banned from European ports for helping Russia move oil outside price caps and other restrictions. The so-called “shadow fleet” now stands at 558 tankers. New contracts for Russian liquefied natural gas will be banned from 1 January 2026. Short-term contracts already in place may continue until 17 June 2026. Long-term supply deals can run until 1 January 2028 under a transition phase. The Danish EU presidency confirmed the measures. It said they are designed to cut Russian energy income. The announcement follows new sanctions announced yesterday by the United States. It targeted Russia’s two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. ’EU officials said the coordination between Brussels and Washington increases the impact of both countries’ measures’. The sanctions also include new limits on the movement of Russian diplomats inside the 27-nation bloc. ’EU leaders’ push forward plans to use billions of euro in frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine’s ’defence and reconstruction’. Countries closest to Ukraine insist that continuing military and economic support is essential. The biggest tranche of frozen assets – some €194 billion worth – are held in Belgium but the government says it does not want to use the money without firm guarantees from its European partners. Earlier this week, members of a 33-nation support group known as the Coalition of the Willing said they opposed any suggestion that Kyiv should give up territory in exchange for peace. That idea has recently been floated by US President Trump. As Britain prepares to host a meeting of the coalition on Friday, ’EU leaders’ say Europe must be ready to deter any future threat from Russia. (Source: rfi - France)

Balkans
22.10.2025.  The Berlin Process was established in 2014 as a platform for high-level cooperation between the governments of the Western Balkans Six. The UK Government, led by Keir Starmer, hosted a summit of the Berlin Process today in London. (Source: European Western Balcans - Serbia)

Ukraine
13:02, 21 Oct 2025  Former defence intelligence expert Ingram details how Ukraine‘s military have managed to hold out in the gruelling conflict. He takes a look inside Ukraine’s wartime tactics. The front lines suggest Ukraine has found a way ’not just to hold the line, but to decisively counterattack’. Ingram identifies four of Ukraine’s winning tactics. ’The first is tactical retreat or trading space for time’, which allows them to actively avoid direct combat on the ground. They have been known to temporarily withdraw from a new tree line or desert sections of buildings that Russia has expended massive resources to occupy. The troops allow the Russians to overextend themselves and use up gear for little gain. The moment Russian troops consolidate their new position, they’re immediately hit by saturation of attack drones, specifically cheap, ubiquitous first person view drones acting as flying precision guided munitions or flying snipers. This constant, relentless process denies Russia any chance to dig in or to get any rest, or to establish solid logistics. ’Another key tactic is the regular rotation of their troops’. ’Ukraine is rotating its frontline soldiers more regularly than the Russians to keep the units fresh and prevent crucial errors’. This plays into the tactic which is military discipline. When Ukrainian troops are deployed on the front t’hey’re used carefully with pre-determined routes’, time checkpoints and reconnaissance drones overseeing their every move. (Source: The U.S. Sun)

October 20, 2025, Monday // 10:26  US President Trump has rejected reports that he pressured Zelensky to agree to the transfer of all of Donbas to Russia.     According to Reuters, the October 17 meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the White House took place in a strained atmosphere. Trump appeared to push for an arrangement to “freeze the war” along the current front lines. On Air Force One two days later, Trump told reporters that both sides “should stop at the lines where they are,” denying that he had suggested Ukraine hand over all of Donbas to Russia. “Let it be cut the way it is. It’s cut up right now. I think 78 percent of the land is already taken by Russia,” he said, adding that future negotiations could settle unresolved issues. Zelensky had hoped to secure approval for long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, but Trump reportedly avoided committing to the request. According to US Vice President Vance, a decision on the missiles has not yet been made. People familiar with the discussion described it as heated, with one source saying it was pretty bad and that Trump warned Zelensky his country would freeze and be destroyed if he refused to reach a deal. Another source disputed the exact wording but confirmed that Trump used harsh language and profanity during the meeting.    Officials quoted by the Financial Times said Trump’s stance may have been shaped by his recent conversation with Putin. During that call, the Russian leader allegedly proposed a territorial exchange that would give Moscow full control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions in return for small parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Trump reportedly relayed Putin’s warning that Ukraine risked being destroyed if it rejected the plan. Ukrainian officials told Reuters that surrendering these territories would leave the rest of the country dangerously exposed and amount to suicide. Among Trump’s team, Special Envoy to the Middle East Witkoff was said to have been the most insistent that Kyiv accept Moscow’s offer, arguing that much of the population in Donetsk and Luhansk is Russian-speaking.     American media outlets, including Axios and The Washington Post, have corroborated that Trump urged Zelensky to “stop where they are” and that Putin demanded full control of Donetsk Oblast to end the war, while hinting at limited concessions in other regions. Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out giving up any additional territory still under Ukrainian control.     In a Fox News interview aired on October 19,Trump said Russia “has a lot of property” after two years of war in Ukraine and implied that territorial losses were inevitable in any peace settlement. He did not reference Ukraine’s sovereignty or international law, instead comparing the situation to past US military operations. “We’re the only nation that goes in, wins a war, and then leaves, Trump said, criticizing past American interventions. Following his meeting with Zelensky, Trump echoed similar sentiments on social media, urging both sides to make a peace deal “with property lines being defined by war and guts.” Reports suggest Putin’s current offer marks a slight shift from his earlier demand for full control of Crimea and four occupied regions, though it still requires Ukraine to forfeit land Moscow has failed to capture militarily.    Sources told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine had spent months preparing a diplomatic strategy to engage with Trump before Putin’s phone call upended those efforts. The US and Ukrainian presidents had spoken twice in the days leading up to their Washington meeting, raising Kyiv’s hopes for concrete progress. After the Putin call, Trump reportedly softened his stance toward Moscow.     Zelensky described his meeting with Trump as tense but constructive, saying Trump’s call for both sides to “stop where they are” could be viewed positively if everyone understands what that means, noting that if Moscow reaches the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast, Putin would claim victory in the war. He told journalists that Trump “doesn’t want an escalation with the Russians until he meets with them.” A source in Zelensky’s circle summed up the situation bluntly: “Trump wants to end the war, but it seems cheaper for them to end it at the expense of Ukraine.’ Trump has since announced plans for another summit with Putin in Budapest, hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Zelensky said he would be open to attending if formally invited. /Source: Novinite - Bulgaria: „Sources: Reuters (United Kingdom); The Kyiv Independent; Ukrainska Pravda; RBC (Ukraine)/'

October 20, 2025 12:19 IST  Trump had a tense meeting with Zelenskyy in Washington, where the American president constantly swore and even threw the battle maps off the table. He warned Ukraine would be destroyed if Zelensky did not agree to surrender the Donbas region. Trump also repeated Putin’s claim that the conflict was a special operation, not even a war. Not just Trump, even his special envoy Witkoff is forcing Ukraine to hand over Donetsk Oblast to Russia because it is “mostly Russian-speaking.” US President Trump’s ’screaming match’ with his counterpart, Zelenskyy, last Friday, wherein he berated the latter and urged him to surrender the Donbas to Russia, suggests that Trump now echoes Russia’s talking points. Trump’s stance during the meeting has also triggered concern that the relations between Zelenskyy and him could once again take a turn for the worse. He had gone to the White House hoping to convince Trump to agree to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles for its fight against the Russian invasion. Not only did he fail to get Trump to release the weapons, but he also saw the US return to discussing Kyiv giving up territory to Russia. “Then [U.S. special envoy Witkoff entered the conversation, and said that the Russians aim to take the entire Donbas … And there was a feeling in the room that the Americans were testing the Ukrainians and what they [would] agree on", a person who attended the meeting told. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Russian President in Budapest could present an extremely unpleasant surprise to Kyiv's regime leader Zelenskyy. ’His stance may also cost Zelenskyy his post as the Ukrainian President, according to analysts’. Without a change of leadership in Kyiv, the prospect of a peaceful resolution to the armed conflict in Ukraine does not seem feasible. (Source: The Week – India)

United Kingdom
October 21, 2025  Some 35 allies of Ukraine will meet on Friday in London for a summit among countries willing to provide long-term support to Kyiv. ’Europe’, Ukraine prepare new proposal to end Russia's war, diplomats say. ’European leaders’ called on Washington today to hold firm in demanding an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, with present battle lines to serve as the basis for any future talks. Bloomberg News first reported news of the work on a new proposal today. The Russian government has long demanded that Ukraine agree to cede more territory before any ceasefire. There is also a possibility that Trump will meet Russian President Putin in the coming weeks. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

North America

United States
October 23, 2025  Trump sanctions Russian oil majors, prompting oil price rise. India jitters. The sanctions, unveiled by the U.S. Treasury, target oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. 'We cancelled the meeting with President Putin - it just didn’t feel right to me,' Trump told reporters at the White House. “It didn’t feel like we were going to get to the place we have to get. So I cancelled it, but we’ll do it in the future.” Oil and gas revenue, which is currently down by 21% year-on-year, accounts for around one quarter of Russia's budget. However, Moscow's main revenue source comes from taxing output, not exports. Oil prices jumped more than 3% today amid worries that the sanctions would disrupt global supply. If global oil prices rise, they are supporting the state's finances and the rouble. Indian oil industry sources told Reuters that Indian refiners were poised to sharply curtail imports of Russian oil to ensure they were in compliance with U.S. sanctions. The U.S. Treasury has given companies until November 21 to wind down their transactions with the Russian oil producers. Moscow's forces are steadily edging forward on the battlefield. Russia has said it opposes a ceasefire because it believes it would only be a temporary pause before fighting resumes, giving Ukraine time and space to re-arm at a time when Moscow says it has the initiative on the battlefield. Russia argues that negotiating a full peace settlement that paves the way for what it calls a "long-lasting peace" is therefore a better option. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

October 22, 2025 11:06 PM GMT+2  Trump says US has not approved Ukraine's use of long-range missiles. Trump said on Truth Social that the Journal story on 'the U.S.A.'s approval of Ukraine being allowed to use long range missiles deep into Russia' was false. "The U.S. has nothing to do with those missiles, wherever they may come from, or what Ukraine does with them!," Trump added. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

10/22/2025, 03:10 PM  The Trump administration has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of certain long-range missiles supplied by Western allies, allowing Kyiv to conduct strikes deeper into Russian territory, U.S. officials said today, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. The policy change was made without public announcement and follows a shift in authority for approving such strikes. The responsibility has moved from Defense Secretary Hegseth to Gen. Grynkewich, the top U.S. general in Europe who also serves as NATO commander. (Source: Investing.com - based in Israel, owned by a Hong Kong–based investment firm)

22.10.2025  US Senate Foreign Relations Committee passes bills targeting Russia, China for Ukraine war. The first bill 'would declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism because of their kidnapping of Ukrainian children'. The second 'would allow using repossessed assets from Russia to support Ukraine in this war'. The third bill targets China to stop their support for the war. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

(21 October 2025)  Electricity demand grows for the first time in decades. The growth of data centres used to train and run artificial intelligence models will cause power demand to more than double by 2035. Billions have been poured into the development of small modular reactors. SMRs, which could provide up to 300 megawatts of power, typically require high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel, known as Haleu - the production of which is controlled by Russia. In 2024 Biden’s administration banned US imports of uranium products from Russia. The US produces less than a ton of uranium annually. Trump in May issued four executive orders aimed at boosting the nuclear industry, two of which directed the energy department to identify and make surplus fuel available to reactor developers. The Department of Energy today published an application that nuclear energy groups can use to seek up to 19 megatonnes of the government’s weapons-grade plutonium from cold war-era warheads, that they can convert into fuel for advanced reactors in an attempt to break Russia’s stranglehold over uranium supply chains. At least two companies, Oklo, which is backed by OpenAI’s Altman, and France’s Newcleo, are expected to apply to access the government’s plutonium stockpile. French company Newcleo last week agreed to invest as much as $2bn in the US as part of a joint agreement with Oklo, with the funds going towards developing advanced fuel fabrication and manufacturing infrastructure. Buono, Newcleo’s founder and chief executive, said they would be very happy to use the plutonium. “With the 92,000 tons of spent fuel that the US has, they could have 100 years of energy independence,” he said. It’s going to increase vulnerability to theft, said Lyman, a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. (Source: Financial Times - United Kingdom)

October 21, 2025  During the Biden administration, Mexico accepted up to 30,000 people a month from Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti, and Venezuela the U.S. returned after they had crossed the southwest border. Although Cuba accepts deportation flights from the U.S., its longtime practice has been to reject deportees who have been convicted of certain crimes. The Trump administration is quietly sending hundreds of Cubans and other immigrants with significant criminal records in buses across the border to Mexico, in an expansion of third-country deportations. The U.S. has also sent Cubans and other immigrants to other countries, including South Sudan. “If you come to our country illegally and break our laws, you could end up in CECOT, Eswatini, Ghana, South Sudan, or another third country,” Assistant Secretary McLaughlin said in an emailed statement. “President Trump and Secretary [Kristi] Noem are not going to allow criminal illegal aliens to remain indefinitely in the U.S.” CECOT is a maximum security prison in El Salvador where the Trump administration sent 238 Venezuelans they accused of being gang members earlier this year. (Source: Miami Herald - U.S.)

10/21/2025  Trump issued an executive order on his inauguration day in January instructing the attorney general to work with other federal agencies “to identify and take appropriate action to correct past misconduct by the federal government related to the weaponization of law enforcement and the weaponization of the Intelligence Community.” Trump and his allies use the term weaponization to refer to their unproven claims that officials from previous administrations abused federal power to target him during his two impeachments, his criminal prosecutions, and the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. The Interagency Weaponization Working Group, which has been meeting since at least May, has drawn officials from the White House, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Justice and Defense Departments, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Department of Homeland Security, the Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Communications Commission, among other agencies. (Source: MSN - U.S. / Reuters - United Kingdom)

October 21, 2025  The House Judiciary Committee referred former CIA Director Brennan to the Justice Department for criminal prosecution today over allegations that he knowingly made false statements to Congress about his role in the Russia collusion hoax. The referral highlights numerous instances in which Brennan allegedly issued untrue remarks when testifying before the Judiciary Committee in May 2023. Among them are comments the former CIA director made when discussing his agency’s role in helping craft the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) that advanced the false narrative that Russia developed a clear preference for Trump and aspired to help him win the 2016 election. (The Federalist - U.S.)

(21 October 2025)  A preparatory meeting between US Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was due to be held this week - but the White House said the two had had a productive call and that a meeting was no longer necessary. Yesterday, Trump embraced a ceasefire proposal backed by Kyiv and European leaders to freeze the conflict on the current front line. Russia has repeatedly pushed back against freezing the current line of contact. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said the idea had been put to the Russians repeatedly but that the consistency of Russia's position doesn't change – referring to Moscow's insistence on the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the embattled eastern regions. Moscow was only interested in long-term, sustainable peace, Lavrov said today, implying that freezing the front line would only amount to a temporary ceasefire. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

(Tuesday), 21/10/2025  In Thursday’s phone call with Trump, Putin again demanded that Ukraine surrender all of the Donetsk region, including territory not occupied by Russia, according to senior U.S. officials. There are no plans for President Trump and Russian President Putin to meet in the immediate future, 'said a White House officia today, 'who was not authorized to speak to the media'. The statement came hours after Russia’s top diplomat Lavrov said Trump’s demand for “an immediate ceasefire, which has suddenly become a topic of discussion again,' was contrary to what was agreed at the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska in August, when Trump abandoned his pressure on Putin to end the fighting ahead of negotiations. Trump’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed several times over the past year. At the Alaska summit, Trump accepted Putin’s rejection of a ceasefire, writing on Truth Social that it had been decided that the best way to end the war was to “go directly to a peace agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere ceasefire agreement, which often times do not hold up.” “You see, if we just stop, it means forgetting the root causes of this conflict, which the American administration clearly understood,” Lavrov said. “I am referring to ensuring Ukraine’s nonaligned, nonnuclear status, which implies refraining from any attempts to draw it into NATO.” He added that freezing the fighting now 'would mean only one thing: a large part of Ukraine would remain under Nazi rule.' Lavrov insisted today that any peace deal be based on Moscow’s demands that Ukraine surrender more territory, permanently disavow joining NATO, accept tight restrictions on the size of its military and get no future Western military assistance. Russia has also demanded a veto over Ukrainian security guarantees. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post = U.S.)

.5 10 26 23:55

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Europe

Hungary
20 October 2025  The euro is a ‘decaying currency’, Orbán is smart to stay out. Indeed, the euro has been a catastrophe for weaker, more exposed economies; in the case of Hungary, it would take away all the tools of independent, central bank-led economic recovery, increase asymmetries, and leave the nation at the mercy of policy decisions made in Frankfurt and Brussels with little to no regard for the specific context and needs of smaller member-states. Yet Germany’s fiscal needs are not and will never be Portugal’s, Spain’s or, indeed, Hungary’s. The euro is a one-size-fits-all left-over of the hegemonically globalist mindset of the 1990s. To the majority of its members, the single currency has served as an economic straitjacket, limiting growth and obliterating national competitiveness. When small economies join monetary unions dominated by powers of greater stature, they surrender control over managing shocks independently. For those unwise enough to join the euro, the currency has meant becoming a hostage to the bigger economies around them. Empirical evidence increasingly confirms that the euro has been good for Germany, gaining about €1.9 trillion between 1999 and 2017, but bad for almost everyone else. That’s about €23,000 per German citizen. For France, the euro has caused a €3.6 trillion fall in prosperity (or €56,000 per Frenchman); Italy losing €4.3 trillion, or as much as €74,000 per capita; Portugal, a country of a scale similar to Hungary (both nations have similarly sized economies and populations), has seen its wealth shrink at a rate of €40,604 per capita. Hungarians should understand that, in monetary policy as in everything else, no one will ever care as much about your interests as yourself. For the sake of liberty as well as prosperity, the forint should remain Hungary’s currency. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)

(Friday), 17.10.25  The US President said on Thursday he may meet his Russian counterpart in Budapest within two weeks. It was there that, in 1994, the United States, Britain and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, providing Ukraine with security assurances in exchange for Kyiv giving up its nuclear weapons. The signatories of that memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Putin is wanted under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court 'on charges of illegally deporting children' from Ukraine, but few observers expect this to be a problem for him in Budapest. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced in April during a visit by Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who has an ICC warrant for his arrest on charges of war crimes in Gaza, that Hungary would withdraw from the court. Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said today that Hungary will ensure Putin can enter the country for the summit and return home afterwards. Putin will be holding talks on the Ukraine war in an EU country without EU leaders attending. The meeting would exclude Zelenskiy for a second time after the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. Ukraine's relationship with Hungary has grown increasingly tense. Zelenskiy said Hungarian drones had crossed into Ukraine last month, prompting Orbán to retort that Ukraine was not a sovereign state. Orbán is one of the most high-profile international backers of Trump's MAGA movement, lauded by MAGA devotees for his uncompromising approach to immigration and LGBTQ+ rights, and focus on conservative Christian values. Trump said on Tuesday that Orbán was "fantastic" and "a great leader", despite his failure to heed U.S. calls to stop buying Russian oil. If there is an agreement, that will legitimise his narrative about peace retrospectively. (Source: The Telegraph - India / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Friday, October 17, 2025  Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán spoke with Trump yesterday and talked to Putin today, saying preparations “are going full steam ahead”. Orbán, speaking earlier on state radio, said the meeting “will be about peace” and if there is a peace deal, that would lead to a new phase of economic development in Hungary and Europe. Europe should open its own diplomatic channels towards Russia. He again accused the EU of taking what he called a 'pro-war stance' over Ukraine. Hungary will ensure that Russian President Putin can enter the country for a summit with U.S. President Trump planned in Budapest and return home afterwards, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó said today. “There is no need for any kind of consultation with anyone, we are a sovereign country here. We will receive (Putin) with respect, host him, and provide the conditions for him to negotiate with the American president.” (Source: DD News - India / Reuters - United Kingdom)

October 16, 2025  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán celebrated the announcement that Trump and Putin will meet in Budapest to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. “The planned meeting between the American and Russian presidents is great news for the peace-loving people of the world,” Orbán said in a post on X on today. “We are ready!” “Preparations for the USA-Russia peace summit are underway,” Orbán wrote in a subsequent post. Putin is in favor of a meeting, Russian presidential aide Ushakov said, according to state-controlled news agency Interfax. “President Trump was the first to mention Budapest, and our president immediately supported the idea of holding a possible summit in this European capital,” Ushakov said. Trump’s post on TruthSocial conveyed warmth toward Putin, who, the president said, had congratulated him for achieving a preliminary ceasefire in Gaza and thanked First Lady Melania “for her involvement with children.” The post made no mention of any additional repercussions toward Russia. The call with Putin came ahead of Trump’s scheduled White House meeting tomorrow with Zelenskyy, who  has said he hopes to convince Washington to provide Tomahawk missiles and other weapons systems that would enable Ukraine to attack deeper into Russia’. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

France
(Monday) October 20, 2025 1:13 AM GMT+2  Earlier this year, officials at the Louvre requested urgent help from the French government to restore and renovate the museum's ageing exhibition halls and better protect its countless works of art. Thieves in balaclavas broke into Paris' Louvre museum on Sunday, using a crane, mounted on the back of a small truck, to smash an upstairs window, then stealing objects from an area that houses the French crown jewels before escaping on motorbikes. The thieves struck at about 9.30 a.m. (0730 GMT) when the museum had already opened its doors to the public, and entered the Galerie d'Apollon building. The robbery took between six to seven minutes and was carried out by four people who were unarmed. A total of nine objects were targeted by the criminals, and eight were actually stolen. The thieves lost the ninth one, the crown of Napoleon III's wife, Empress Eugenie, during their escape. "It's worth several tens of millions of euros - just this crown. And it's not, in my opinion, the most important item," Drouot auction house President Giquello told. Paris Prosecutor Beccuau said on BFM TV it was a mystery why the thieves did not steal the Regent diamond, which is housed in the Galerie d'Apollon and is estimated to be worth more than $60 million by Sotheby's. She said foreign interference was not among the main hypotheses. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

17/10/2025  'Zalmayev, Director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, calls the US decision to potentially provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine a welcome escalation'. (Source: France 24)

Germany
October 20, 2025  Germany plans to buy 15 more F-35 fighter jets estimated to cost €2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) amid defence buildup. The move could strain relations with France as Berlin doubles down on US aircraft over the delayed joint European jet project, the Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project - Europe’s own next-generation fighter initiative. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

Poland
20.10.2025  Polish premier Donald Tusk says no one should pressure Ukraine to give up territory to Russia in pursuit of a peace agreement. Tusk wrote on the US social media company X late today. Trump and Putin are expected to meet soon in Budapest to discuss prospects for ending the war. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Oct 17, 2025  The Warsaw District Court blocks extradition to Germany and frees Ukrainian Zhuravlov, 46, suspected in Nord Stream pipeline blasts, arrested near Warsaw Sept. 30 on a German warrant. Judge Lubowski said as he announced his ruling that the attack on the pipelines should be understood as a military action in a 'just war,' and therefore not subject to criminal responsibility on the part of an individual. He also questioned German jurisdiction, including the fact that the explosions occurred in international waters. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said it would not be in Poland’s interest to hand over the suspect. Tusk said earlier this month that 'the problem of Europe, the problem of Ukraine, the problem of Lithuania and Poland is not that Nord Stream 2 was blown up, but that it was built.' He noted in a post on X today that 'the case is closed.' (Source: PBS - U.S.)

European Union
20/10/2025  As they gathered today for a meeting in Luxembourg, EU foreign ministers continue to grapple with the idea of a potential summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Budapest. Monday's gathering of foreign affairs ministers comes just a few days after Trump spoke with Putin by phone and hosted Zelenskyy at the White House. Washington's ever-shifting diplomacy has once again stoked fears that Europe's security architecture risks being decided 'without Europeans' in the room. However, unlike the Alaska meeting in August, this time there will be 'at least one' European leader present: Viktor Orbán. At the end of the day, nobody can decide over the head of Europe what is in the decision-making power of Europe, Finland's Valtonen said. Denmark's Rasmussen 'tried to assuage anxiety', saying Budapest will serve just as a venue for the meeting, without agenda-setting powers. 'Brussels is working on an initiative to use the cash balances of Russia's frozen assets to issue a €140 billion loan to Ukraine' to cover financial and military needs in the long term. In parallel, the 19th package of sanctions against the Kremlin is almost ready to go, with Slovakia as the last holdout over unrelated matters. 'We stand with Ukraine and we support the American president's proposal of a ceasefire at the contact line. Nothing more than that', Rasmussen told reporters. 'And if the (Budapest summit) is about that, it's absolutely okay.' It's not nice to see that a person with an arrest warrant (issued) by the ICC is coming to a European country, admitted High Representative Kallas. (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Russia
20.10.2025  Capabilities refer to the territory, population, natural resources, and technology employed by states as “like-units” in their quest for survival. The states that concentrate the most capabilities are the “poles”, referred to here as polar states. The distribution of capabilities occurs in multipolar way, when three or more states concentrate capabilities. Realists assume that there would be a natural reaction to a single pole, giving rise to bipolarity or multipolarity. Therefore, unipolarity, if it exists, would be nothing more than a moment. Given the difference in capabilities between the polar state and its allies, its actions toward them are flexible, and the risk of an overreaction that would involve it in conflict with the other pole is low. In this structure, because there are only two main states, there is clarity about the adversary’s interests and the means at its disposal to achieve them, which reduces the risk of miscalculations. Therefore, bipolarity would be more stable. In multipolarity, because there are a greater number of polar states and a more balanced distribution of capabilities among them, the dominant strategy is external balancing. Given the number of poles, the possibility of diverse alliances is greater. Such flexibility, however, hides the rigidity of this strategy: as each state is more dependent on the others, the commitment to allies is greater. But the increase in the number of relevant units leads to the risk of miscalculation. That is why multipolar structures are more unstable. There are good reasons to fear that international politics has never gone through a phase with such great potential for disaster. How can we tame these emerging polarities? Previously misunderstood phenomena, such as the BRICS, begin to make sense and even become exemplary elements for understanding the new order. The BRICS are a grouping, among others, that emerged as a response to the duplicity of Western normative standards exposed over these 30 years of “rules-based order”. Perhaps such groups might play a relevant role in trying to tame the emerging polarities. (Source: Valdai Discussion Club - Russia)
by Mielniczuk

17.10.2025  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conveyed to Russian President Putin his readiness to provide proper conditions for a proposed Moscow-Washington summit in the capital Budapest, the Kremlin said today. A statement after a phone call between the two leaders said that Putin outlined the main content of his yesterday phone conversation with US President Trump. Putin said that during contacts with US officials, he conveyed plans to discuss an “algorithm for further actions” in the context of Ukraine peace talks, with a view to hold a summit between Russia and the US in the Hungarian capital. Yesterday, the Russian and US presidents held what Kremlin aide Ushakov described as a “very substantive, yet also extremely frank and confidential” phone conversation that lasted for nearly 2 1/2 hours. Ushakov said Putin and Trump discussed the possibility of holding another face-to-face meeting, and agreed that representatives from both sides will immediately begin preparing for a summit, with Budapest as a potential venue. The two leaders last met in the US state of Alaska on Aug. 15. Calling the phone conversation "very productive," Trump said that he and Putin could meet in Hungary within two weeks, after high-level delegations meet next week. “It could indeed take place within two weeks or a little later. There's a general understanding that there's no need to put anything off,” Kremlin spokesman Peskov told journalists in a briefing earlier today. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Friday, October 17, 2025  Trump and Putin agreed yesterday to hold a second summit on the war in Ukraine, provisionally in Budapest, following an August 15 meeting in Alaska. The surprise announcement came on the eve of a meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy. The Kremlin said today that a summit between presidents Putin and Trump could take place within two weeks, or a little later, there’s a general understanding that nothing should be put off, but that there was a great deal to be worked out before a date could be set. Kremlin spokesman Peskov told reporters that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio would need to call each other and set up a meeting to sort out many pre-summit issues. Peskov said Russia remained open to a settlement to end the war in Ukraine peacefully. The Kremlin said separately that Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had spoken by phone today to discuss the upcoming summit and that Orbán had said Hungary was ready to host the event. (Source: DD News - India / Reuters - United Kingdom)

17.10.2025  Speaking at the plenary session of the 8th Russian Energy Week international forum in Moscow, Russian President Putin yesterday expressed Russia’s perspective on challenges facing the global and Russian fuel and energy sectors. Putin described it to be a natural and objective process in many ways amid the emergence of new centers of economic growth and an increase in energy consumption in those centers. At the same time, he accused the aggressive and assertive actions of ‘certain Western elites’ of artificially disrupting global energy system. Putin said many European countries have refused to purchase Russian energy supplies under political pressure, the repercussions of which, he argued, are evident within the EU, including through a decline in industrial output, rising prices due to more expensive imported oil and gas, and a reduction in the competitiveness of both European goods and the broader economy. The Russian president said energy supply chains are increasingly shifting toward the Global South, namely in the direction of countries in the Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin America regions. Putin also said Moscow accounts for about 10% of global oil production, Russia maintains its position as a leading oil producer despite the mechanisms of unfair competition used against it. He said experts believe nuclear energy will become a key pillar of the future global energy balance, and that the world's nuclear power capacity will almost double by 2050. “Russia is the only country in the world with competencies across the entire chain of nuclear generation,” Putin said, noting that it is involved in the construction of nuclear power plants in Bangladesh, Egypt and Türkiye. „We intend to further develop our cooperation in the nuclear industry with Global South countries and within BRICS”, he said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Ukraine
Saturday 18 October 2025 13:44 BST  “I do remember one officer saying:’ Don’t worry. We’ll justify what we were doing’.’ ’Ukraine cannot win its war with Russia, and should negotiate peace terms with the Kremlin, Britain’s most senior army officer, Field Marshal Lord Richards tells. In his first long-form podcast interview, Lord Richards, the only British officer to have commanded massed US troops at war since 1945, said the outlook for Ukraine was not good. Lord Richards, who was promoted to the UK military’s most senior “five-star” rank earlier this year and led Nato forces during their troop surge in Afghanistan, said Ukraine’s allies have failed Kyiv. 'What we have done in the case of Ukraine is encourage Ukraine to fight, but not given them the means to win,” the former chief of the defence staff told. Reflecting on Ukraine’s chances of success against Russia, he said: “My view is that they would not win.” „They haven’t got the manpower,” the former commando said. “Unless we were to go in with them – which we won’t do because Ukraine is not an existential issue for us. It clearly is for the Russians, by the way,” he said. Ukraine has been given false hope by its Western allies and Kyiv will not be able to drive Putin’s soldiers out of Ukraine without the help of Nato forces – who won’t get involved on the ground. “We’ve decided because it’s not an existential issue, we will not go to war. We are, you can argue – and I absolutely accept it – in some sort of hybrid war with Russia. But that’s not the same as a shooting war in which our soldiers are dying in large numbers. Lord Richards, who led Britain’s interventions in Sierra Leone and East Timor as a brigadier and later argued against the UK’s part in the American-led invasion of Iraq, backed the former US General Milley, who suggested back in November 2022 that Ukraine should negotiate with Russia. 'Despite our attraction for all they’ve achieved and our genuine affections for so many Ukrainians, I’m just still in this school that says this is not in our vital national interests". “My instinct is that the best Ukraine can do, and you already see President Zelensky, who’s an inspirational leader … the best they can do is a sort of a score draw.” The field marshal’s intervention came after Zelensky flew to Washington DC to meet Trump to try to persuade him to give Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles. At a packed press conference, Trump appeared reluctant to give up American weapons. The US president stressed his own country’s needs to maintain stockpiles. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

October 16, 2025 6:09 PM GMT+2  Ukraine's state grid operator, Ukrenergo, has introduced emergency power cuts in every region of the country following Russian attacks on the energy system. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

North America

United States
Oct. 19 2025  At another explosive White House meeting between President Trump and Zelensky on Friday, Trump was pressuring his counterpart to accept Russia’s terms for a ceasefire, according to the Financial Times, reportedly telling Zelensky that Russia would destroy Ukraine if he didn’t agree. This time, Trump demanded that Zelensky surrender the entire Donbas region to Russian President Putin, sources said. Trump repeated many of Putin’s talking points verbatim during the meeting, telling Zelensky he was losing the war and that “If [Putin] wants it, he will destroy you.” (Source: The Daily Beast - U.S.)

Space

October 20, 2025  European aerospace groups Leonardo, Airbus and Thales have reached a framework deal on a proposed merger of their satellite businesses. The deal will combine loss-making satellite activities of Airbus with those of Thales Alenia Space and Telespazio - two ventures currently controlled by France's Thales and Italian aerospace group Leonardo. Paris-based consultancy Novaspace says more than 43,000 satellites will launch over the next decade, representing a $665 billion market in manufacturing and launch services. The key remaining hurdle, analysts say, will be getting past a competition review by the European Commission. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

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Africa

Liberia
Saturday, October 18, 2025  The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Her Excellency Madam Beysolow Nyanti, met with the United States Secretary of State and Acting National Security Advisor, Mr. Rubio, on October 16, at the US White House, to reaffirm Liberia’s commitment to strengthening bilateral relations and advancing shared priorities in economic development, migration reform, and strategic investment. (Source: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Liberia)

Madagascar
17 October 2025  Capsat military unit commander Colonel Randrianirina seized power in a military coup and was sworn in as Madagascar’s new leader president. The takeover led to Madagascar being suspended from the African Union. Colonel Randrianirina has said Madagascar will be run by a military council with him as president for between 18 months and two years before any new elections. The country’s failing economy has left around 75 per cent in deep poverty. (Source: Morning Star - United Kingdom)

Australia

17 Oct 2025  China has used critical minerals (especially rare earths) as a foreign policy instrument for more than a decade, cutting off supplies to Japan in 2010. Now, China responds to American trade measures by threatening further limitations on rare earth exports. Trump wants our rare earths minerals, but we should keep selling to China too. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese needs gifts to give substance to his meeting with President Trump. Australia has almost “the entire periodic table”, so has something to offer. Australia has been digging up minerals for nearly two centuries and is home to the world’s two largest miners (BHP and Rio Tinto). These large miners have world-beating technology and sophistication in exploration, assessment, efficient extraction and transportation at huge scale. Australia not only has the minerals, it also has experience, expertise, technology, legal frameworks, and environmental safeguards. Foreign ownership dominates the minerals sector (estimated at more than 80%) - often Chinese, interested is shipping ore to be processed under lax Chinese environmental laws, often funded with risk-tolerant state capital. Lynas, Australia’s sole processor, currently does this in Malaysia, with its more lenient environmental requirements. A Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve is under discussion. What have we got to offer that would appeal to President Trump? The CSIS assesses that Australia is second only to the United States in potential for processing and equal to Canada in key investment criteria. We should avoid any sort of preferential deal just with America, with China excluded. Our longer-term interests are best served by remaining open to all investors, including China. Australia should avoid joining the arm-wrestle with embargoes and restraints to trade. We are a middle-sized economy heavily dependent on international trade in general, and trade with China in particular. Free trade is our lifeblood. The most useful thing we could do is to push as hard as we can for a return to unrestricted international trade, which means we should seek an effective modus vivendi with China. Our longer-term interests are best served by remaining open to all investors, including China. Australia might require firms using Australian-sourced ore to undertake to sell the final product on the open market, without embargo or discrimination between buyers. If Australia offers consistent conditions to all investors, it will be in their individual interests to play by the rules. (Source: The Interpreter - a blog launched by the Lowy Institute - Australia)
by Grenville

Caribbean

Trinidad and Tobago
Sunday, October 19, 2025  Americans should avoid visiting all U.S. government facilities through the holiday weekend referring to Diwali, a Hindu festival of lights in Trinidad and Tobago due to a heightened state of alert on the twin-island nation, amid rapidly rising tensions between U.S. and Venezuela, according to a warning from the U.S. Embassy there. The two islands that make up Trinidad and Tobago are off the northeastern coast of Venezuela. Over the past two months, American forces have carried out at least six strikes on boats allegedly carrying narcotics from Venezuela to the U.S. After the most recent operation last week, the U.S. took into custody two individuals who survived the strike. President Trump said over the weekend that they will be returned to their home countries of Ecuador and Colombia. In addition to stopping the flow of drugs to U.S. shores, the strikes are designed to put pressure on Venezuelan President Maduro, who Mr. Trump has accused of facilitating drug trafficking throughout the hemisphere. Mr. Trump said he’s weighing possible ground missions inside the country. Such missions could target drug cartels operating in the country but also could extend to the Maduro government itself in what could become a U.S.-led regime change operation. Navy Adm. Holsey, the commander of U.S. Southern Command, announced his retirement last week. U.S. Southern Command oversees American military activity in the region. (Source: The Washington Times - U.S.)

North America

United States
Sunday 19 October 2025  Among the new rules laid out in Defense Secretary Hegseth’s 21-page policy, which he gave credentialed journalists until Tuesday evening to acknowledge, was a ban on reporters soliciting any information – classified or otherwise – from government employees without prior authorization from the Pentagon. Dozens of print and broadcast journalists walked out of the Pentagon Wednesday in the wake of nearly every American news organization – including Trump-friendly networks Fox News and Newsmax – refusing to follow Hegseth’s media restrictions. “Our members did nothing to create this disturbing situation. It arises from an entirely one-sided move by Pentagon officials apparently intent upon cutting the American public off from information they do not control and pre-approve,” the Pentagon Press Association, which represents members from 57 domestic and international news outlets, said this week. The group, which represents around 100 journalists, tore into the 'unprecedented message of intimidation' delivered by the policy, urging the department to reverse course over its assault on press freedom. Not all credentialed journalists at the Pentagon are represented by the association. The only journalists left with credentials to enter the Pentagon were a mix of freelancers, foreign media members and staffers from MAGA-boosting outlets. By Thursday only 15 reporters out of hundreds of credentialed reporters agreed, had signed the new press pledge. Two are from the pro-Trump cable channel, One America News; one is from right-wing website The Federalist; and another is from ultra-conservative newspaper The Epoch Times. The remaining 11 reporters include freelancers for foreign-based organizations and a couple of little-known independent sites that appear to publish their work solely on social media. A reporter for the Turkish newspaper Akşam, three individuals from the Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency and two Turkish freelancers signed the agreement. Other signers included a reporter for The Australian; an Afghan freelancer; and three lesser-known operations, AWPS News, the India Globe and a blog called USA Journal Korea. Additionally, two members of the Jordanian TV network Al Taghier signed an older version of the policy. The “self-righteous media chose to self-deport from the Pentagon. They will not be missed,” Pentagon spokesperson Parnell tweeted. “The Department of War will make an announcement soon regarding the next generation of the Pentagon press corps,” he wrote. “Stay tuned. The best is yet to come!” (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

(Saturday), October 18, 2025  Protesting the direction of the country under President Trump, people gathered today in the nation’s capital and communities big and small across the U.S. for No Kings demonstrations that the president’s Republican Party disparaged as Hate America rallies. Let’s see who shows up for that, House Speaker .Johnson of Louisiana said, listing groups including antifa types, people who hate capitalism and Marxists in full display. Later Friday a Trump campaign social media account mocked the protests by posting a computer-generated video of the president clothed like a monarch, wearing a crown and waving from a balcony. With signs such as Nothing is more patriotic than protesting or Resist Fascism, in many places the No Kings’ protests against Trump looked more like a street party vibe to cities nationwide. There were marching bands, a huge banner with the U.S. Constitution’s We The People preamble that people could sign, and demonstrators wearing inflatable costumes, particularly frogs, which have emerged as a sign of resistance in Portland, Oregon. More than 2,600 rallies were ’planned’ on the day, organizers said. The national march against Trump and Musk this spring had 1,300 registered locations, while the first No Kings day in June registered 2,100. Republicans sought to portray protesters as far outside the mainstream and a prime reason for the government shutdown, now in its 18th day. From the White House to Capitol Hill, GOP leaders called them communists and Marxists. They said Democratic leaders including Schumer are beholden to the far-left flank and willing to keep the government shut to appease those liberal forces. (Source: AP - United States)

(18 October 2025)  Rise of ‘shadow banking’ brings new financial risks, experts say. 'Shadow banking,' is an example of larger, regulated banks offering loans to private companies that in many cases have a higher credit risk and little or no repayment history. A pair of regional banks this week disclosed lawsuits involving allegedly fraudulent business loans, while the failure of two companies in the automotive sector dinged some Wall Street titans, including JPMorgan. All four cases reflect the growth of major banks’ lending to so-called non-depository financial institutions. A spate of recent fraud cases and bankruptcies has raised new concerns about a growing class of largely unregulated loans, with a sell-off in U.S. banking stocks bleeding into global markets this week. (Source: The Washington Post - U.S.)

(18 October 2025)  It was as Zelensky's flight was in the air that news of the two-and-a-half-hour Trump-Putin phone call began to emerge and, before its wheels were even on the Washington tarmac, we had the announcement that another summit between the two was in the offing. The Ukrainians descended the steps, to be met with a low-key American greeting, and with their optimism, like a piece of waylaid luggage, lost somewhere en route. "I think he wants to make a deal," Trump said, and then proceeded to repeat some of his old talking points, framing the conflict as, in essence, a personal gripe between two leaders. "There's a lot of bad blood,' he said. Zelensky has learned from bitter experience that there are great risks in being seen to challenge Trump inside the walls of the White House. Trump ended the day insisting that the war should simply be frozen on the existing battle lines and both sides should simply "go home to their families". (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

(Friday), 17.10.2025  „President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this inglorious war, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end,'” US president Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform yesterday. Trump said that he and Putin agreed to send their respective teams. The US will be led by Secretary of State Rubio, who is also serving as the president's national security advisor. An exact location for next week's sit-down has yet to be decided. 'President Zelenskyy and I will be meeting tomorrow, in the Oval Office, where we will discuss my conversation with President Putin, and much more. I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation," he added. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

17/10/2025  President Trump cast doubt yesterday on giving Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv a day before he meets with Zelensky, saying the United States could not deplete its own stock. (Source: France 24)

17.10.2025  Ex-Trump adviser Bolton surrenders to court after being indicted on 8 counts of transmitting national security information, 10 counts of retention of national defense information. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Oct. 16, 2025  Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command which oversees all operations in Central and South America, is stepping down. Adm. Holsey, overseeing the Pentagon’s escalating attacks against boats in the Caribbean Sea is leaving less than a year into his tenure into what is typically a three-year job in the midst of the biggest operation in his 37-year career. His abrupt end to leading one of the military’s highly coveted regional war-fighting commands comes after a Navy career that started with his commissioning through the Naval Reserve Officers Training Corps, or NROTC, at Morehouse College in Atlanta in 1988. The admiral worked his way up, from commanding helicopter squadrons to leading one of the Navy’s prestigious aircraft carrier strike groups. He served first as the Southern Command’s military deputy before taking command in November 2024. Admiral Holsey just this week visited the island countries Antigua and Barbuda, and Grenada. News of the admiral’s departure comes a day after a report that the Trump administration had secretly authorized the C.I.A. to conduct covert action in Venezuela. Since early September, U.S. Special Operations forces have struck at least five boats off the Venezuelan coast that the White House says were transporting drugs, killing 27 people. American officials have privately made it clear that the main goal is to drive Maduro, Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, from power. The U.S. military is planning its own possible escalation, drawing up options for Mr. Trump to consider, including strikes inside Venezuela. While Admiral Holsey has been the highest-ranking military officer overseeing the air strikes, the decision to carry them out has been driven by the White House, and the strikes themselves have been conducted by Special Operations forces, with Admiral Holsey largely cut out of the decision-making. Admiral Holsey, who is Black, becomes the latest in a line of more than a dozen military leaders, many of them people of color and women, who have left their jobs this year. Most have been fired by Mr. Hegseth or pushed out. Mr. Hegseth fired the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Brown Jr., who is Black; the first woman to command the Navy, Adm. Franchetti; and the U.S. military’s representative to the NATO military committee, Vice Adm. Chatfield. He also pushed out Lt. Gen. Kruse, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency. In August, the Air Force’s top uniformed officer, Gen. Allvin, announced that he would retire early - two years into a four-year term. About two weeks ago, Mr. Hegseth summoned hundreds of generals and admirals from around the world to a meeting at Marine Corps Base Quantico, in Northern Virginia. It was a gathering without precedent in recent memory. The secretary told the senior officers that he was tightening standards for fitness and grooming, cracking down even more rigorously ’on woke garbage’ and rejecting the notion of toxic leadership. (Source: The New York Times - U.S.)

South America

Argentina
Saturday, October 18, 2025  Exactly 20 years ago next month, Argentina hosted the fourth Summit of the Americas in the seaside city of Mar del Plata. There, a troika of Kirchner,  Lula da Silva and Chávez resisted a push from then-US president Bush to introduce a free-trade area in the Americas, known as the FTAA or ALCA in its Spanish acronym. In defeat, Washington silently retreated from the region. Now it’s coming back, in full swing. This revived Monroe Doctrine of the 21st century has one main target: China. Since the FTAA failure two decades ago, Beijing has occupied much of the vacant space. Nuclear, military, maritime or space issues - those are exactly the sectors where the Chinese have been advancing their interests in Argentina in recent years. In 2018, China opened a space observation facility in Neuquén, the home of Vaca Muerta. In 2022, the two countries agreed to jointly build Argentina’s fourth nuclear energy facility. China was also eyeing major investments in ports near the strategic Strait of Magellan in southern Argentina. Trump said Tuesday he would be very upset if he hears such things are happening in Argentina – and Milei does not want to upset Trump. (Source: Buenos Aires Times - Argentina)

Colombia
Oct 19 (2025)  Aboard Air Force One, U.S. President Trump said on Sunday night he would raise tariffs on Colombia and stop all payments to the South American nation. Earlier in the day, Trump called Colombian President Petro an ’illegal drug leader,’ while Defense Secretary Hegseth said U.S. forces had attacked a vessel associated with a Colombian rebel group. He wrote on X that the Pentagon had destroyed a vessel and killed three people on Friday in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility, which includes the Caribbean. Hegseth said the ship was affiliated with the leftist rebel group National Liberation Army and was involved in illicit narcotics smuggling. Petro said the boat belonged to a humble family, not a rebel group. His government called Trump's remarks offensive. They don't have a fight against drugs - they make drugs, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. I'm stopping all payments to Colombia, he said. It was not clear what funding support Trump was referring to. Colombia was once among the largest recipients of U.S. aid in the Western Hemisphere, but the flow of money was suddenly curtailed this year by the shuttering of USAID. Colombia's foreign ministry vowed to seek international support in defense of Petro and the country's autonomy. Last month, the United States revoked Petro's visa after he joined a pro-Palestinian demonstration in New York and urged U.S. soldiers to disobey Trump's orders. Colombia is fighting its own longstanding drug problems. Last year, Petro pledged to tame coca-growing regions in the country with massive social and military intervention, but the strategy has brought little success. In September, Trump designated countries such as Afghanistan, Bolivia, Burma, Colombia and Venezuela among those the United States believes to have failed demonstrably in upholding counternarcotics agreements during the past year. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Peru
October 17, 2025  Demonstrations against corruption and rising crime against President Jeri, 38, a day after he presented his cabinet and assumed power just days ago. At least one person was killed and dozens of police officers injured in widespread protests overnight in Peru Jeri's nascent presidency ends next July due to scheduled elections. Everyone must go! protesters chanted in Lima when they reached Congress and tried to tear down metal barriers protecting the building, leading to clashes. The Congress - which was headed by Jeri before he became president - is unpopular with a single-digit approval rating. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

16 Oct 2025  Rioters clash with cops and demand overthrow of president. Yesterday’s protests were called by a youth-led collective, artists’ groups and labour unions. At least one protestor has been shot dead by police. Rioters are attempting to topple President Jeri’s government – just days after he was sworn in as interim leader. Authorities report at least 102 people have been injured – including 24 civilians and 78 cops. The latest escalation comes after lawmakers impeached the last president Boluarte under corruption accusations. Her impeachment last week followed protests by bus companies, merchants and students over shakedowns by criminal gangs and attacks on those who refuse to pay protection money. Extortion and contract killings have been a feature of daily life across Peru. ’The youth-led demonstrations’ brought thousands of Peruvians, also frustrated by the authorities’ failure to resolve a worsening crime crisis, onto the streets in the capital and several other cities. Gangs such as Los Pulpos and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, which operates across Latin America, hold people from all walks of life for ransom. Rioters are demanding Peru’s political class be torn down. (Source: The U.S. Sun)

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Afghanistan
(Monday), 10/13/2025  Pakistani troops were on high alert on the border with Afghanistan today, after fierce fighting between the two sides at the weekend left dozens dead. The Pakistan military said that 23 of its soldiers were killed in the weekend clashes. The Taliban said nine of its fighters were killed. Border crossings for vehicles and pedestrians along the 2,600-km frontier are closed since Saturday following unprovoked attacks by the Afghan Taliban forces, a senior Pakistani security official told. Pakistan is the main source of goods and food supplies for landlocked, impoverished Afghanistan. Fighting between the two sides, who were once allies, erupted after Islamabad demanded the Taliban take action against militants who have stepped up attacks in Pakistan, saying they operate from havens in Afghanistan. Afghanistan did not wish to fight with anyone and all its other neighbours were happy with Kabul, Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Muttaqi told in the Indian capital New Delhi, which he is visiting for the first time since 2021. The Taliban denies that Pakistani militants are present in Afghanistan. Kabul said yesterday that it had halted attacks at the request of Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The fighting has drawn the attention of Trump, as he flew from Washington to Israel on Sunday as part of his efforts to end the Gaza war. He said he would focus on it soon, because „I'm good at solving wars, I'm good at making peace," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. China, which borders Afghanistan and Pakistan in its western region and has sought to play a mediating role in calming hostilities between the two sides, said today it was very concerned about the latest clashes. (Source: MSN - U.S. / Reuters - United Kingdom)

China
October 15, 2025  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang toured Austria, Poland, and Slovenia between September 12 and 16. He underscored in Poland the country’s dual role as both a key NATO frontline state and a critical link in China’s Belt and Road rail corridor, particularly through the Małaszewicze logistics hub on the Belarus border, which is critical for trade by rail between China and Europe. (Source: The Council on Foreign Relations - U.S.)

2025.10.13  Beijing’s top religion regulator issued new rules banning unauthorized online preaching, as well as a broader crackdown on online content that expresses views contrary to the Chinese Communist Party’s goals. China arrests Christian underground church founder, pastors. (Source: Radio Free Asia - U.S.)

Gaza
October 14, 2025 7:23am EDT  After Trump declares 'war is over," Hamas executes rivals in Gaza to reassert control. The war is over, but the question is whether peace will really begin. Gazans describe uncertainty as terrorist group reasserts control despite ceasefire agreement. While the guns have fallen silent, the next stage -  Hamas’ disarmament and the arrival of a stabilization force - will determine whether Gaza finally begins rebuilding or slips back into chaos. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Indonesia
(October 14, 2025)  The First Wap, the surveillance empire that tracked world leaders, a Vatican enemy, and maybe you. It has continued to develop Altamides, adding new capabilities. Now it can not only track locations, it can intercept calls and messages and crack accounts that rely on passcodes sent via text messages - including the encrypted messaging service WhatsApp, as Rudolph told Albert and Abdou, the Lighthouse reporters posing as potential buyers, at the ISS conference in June. The company steers clear of the spyware, highly regarded in the industry, that provides access to everything on a target’s device. It continues to exploit phone networks, which offers more limited surveillance possibilities, but allows First Wap to operate more freely and flexibly than its competitors, Rudolph said. (Source: Mother Jones - U.S.)

Israel
(14 October 2025)  In the chamber of the Knesset, or Israeli parliament, the mood was altogether more raucous than that in the streets. Emblazoned on the red baseball caps handed out by staff, and worn by some of the audience, were the words: "The president of peace". Spectators shouted from the gallery behind me: "Thank you Trump." Lawmakers hammered their desks. Trump hailed a "historic dawn of a new Middle East". He also wanted to leave little doubt the war was over, and it seemed he expected it to stay that way: Israel, he said, with America's help, had won all that it could by force of arms. His speech meandered into extensive attacks on his political opponents in the US. He praised a major donor to his election campaign seated in the gallery. And he even appealed to Israel's president, Herzog, seating next to him, to pardon Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption – charges that the Israeli PM denies. Cigars and champagne, who the hell cares about that? Trump exclaimed, referencing the allegation that Netanyahu accepted pricy gifts. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
by Bateman, State department correspondent travelling on Air Force

Oct 13, 2025 11:30 AM EDT  Today, Hamas released these 20 living hostages into the custody of the Red Cross, which then brought them to Israel as part of a new ceasefire deal that many hope will signal an end to two years of war in the devastated Gaza Strip. Under the agreement, all living hostages were to be released, as well as the bodies of the deceased. A look at the 20 hostages released today. (Source: PBS - U.S.)
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11:17 PM EDT, Sun October 12, 2025  US President Trump is heading to Israel ahead of the expected release early Monday of the 20 Israeli hostages thought to be alive in Gaza. Nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees in Israel will also be freed as part of the first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire deal. Trump will address Israel’s parliament and meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the families of the hostages. Later on Monday, leaders from more than 20 countries will join Trump in Egypt for a summit on Gaza’s future. “The reason why we’re at this moment … is because the president of the United States. He gave unusual authorities to people who had never been in diplomacy before, he actually broke the mold,” VP Vance said. “Instead of doing diplomacy the same old way that it had failed for the past 30 or 40 years. He gave Witkoff and Kushner a remarkable amount of authority to go and get a peace deal done.” The UN said Israel had approved more aid shipments, now totalling 190,000 metric tons, in what it hopes is just the beginning in getting crucial supplies to the enclave. (Source: CNN - U.S.)
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Friday 10 October 2025 10:25 EDT  The United States is sending up to 200 troops to Israel to monitor the ceasefire transition process with Gaza and ensure the terms of phase one of the 20-point deal are implemented. They are from U.S. Central Command, the military organization responsible for defending and promoting U.S. interests across the globe. The American troops, led by Admiral Cooper, will join soldiers from neighboring countries in the region, including Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. The goal of the Civil Military Coordination Center is to establish a hub for military and political officials, as well as aid experts, to coordinate while implementing the ceasefire deal. That means everything from security support to humanitarian aid. An official confirmed no U.S. troops would be sent to Gaza. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

Pakistan
(Saturday), 11.10.25  Radical Islamist party Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) today claimed that police shot dead 11 of its supporters as they attempted to march towards Islamabad to stage a demonstration outside the US embassy against Israel's military actions in Gaza. Authorities in Punjab, however, said that at least 40 policemen were injured in clashes with the TLP that began two days ago amid the group’s call for anti-Israel demonstrations. (The Telegraph - India)

Persian Gulf
October 11, 2025  Over the past three years, facilitated by the United States, Arab states quietly expanded security cooperation with the Israeli military, leaked U.S. documents reveal. Senior military officials from Israel and six key Arab countries came together for a series of planning meetings in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar. Even as security cooperation with Israel expanded behind closed doors, Arab leaders denounced its war in Gaza. The leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia said the Israeli campaign amounted to a genocide. The documents state that the partnership does not form a new alliance. and that all meetings would be “held in confidence.” Five Centcom PowerPoint presentations detail the creation of what the U.S. military describes as the “Regional Security Construct.” In addition to Israel and Qatar, the construct includes Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Those military ties could now play a key role in overseeing the nascent ceasefire in Gaza. The documents refer to Kuwait and Oman as “potential partners” that were briefed on all meetings. They were written between 2022 and 2025, before and after the launch of Israel’s war in Gaza in October 2023. Israel and the Arab countries signed on to the plan at a 2022 security conference, agreeing to coordinate military exercises and procure the equipment to make it possible. By 2024, Centcom successfully linked many of the partner states to its systems, allowing them to provide radar and sensor data to the U.S. military and, in turn, to view the combined data of the partners. A briefing document stated that six of the seven partner nations were receiving a partial air picture of the region through Defense Department systems, and that two countries were sharing their own radar data through a U.S. Air Force squadron. Partner nations were also being onboarded to a U.S.-run secure chat system so that they could communicate with each other and the U.S. military. While Qatar and Saudi Arabia do not have formal diplomatic relationships with Israel, the Centcom documents show the important behind-the-scenes role that both powerful gulf states played in the nascent partnership. The May 2024 security conference at al-Udeid Air Base underscored the increased cooperation, with Israeli officials holding bilateral discussions with representatives from each of the attending Arab countries. Saudi Arabia played an active role in this collaboration, sharing intelligence with Israel and Arab partners on a broad range of security issues. In a 2025 meeting, a Saudi official and a U.S. intelligence official provided an intelligence overview to partners on political developments in Syria, including the role played by Russia, Turkey and Kurdish forces in the country. The briefing also covered the threats posed by the Iran-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen and the islamic state’s operations in Syria and Iraq. A 2024 briefing document envisioned the creation of a “Combined Middle East Cyber Center” by the end of 2026 to serve as a headquarters for education and exercises on defensive cyber operations. Another document advocated for the creation of an “Information Fusion Center” for partners to “rapidly plan, execute, and assess operations in the information environment.” These engagements reflected the Gulf Arab states’ pragmatic ties with Israel - and their respect for its military prowess. The centerpiece of the agreement establishing diplomatic ties between Israel and Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain - an air-defense plan to combat Iran’s missiles and drones - moved from theory to reality over the past three years. The air-defense system, however, did nothing to protect Qatar against Israel’s Sept. 9 strike on its capital. U.S. satellite and radar systems did not provide an early warning of the strike, U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. France told. Those systems “are typically focused on Iran and other [areas] where we expect an attack to come from.” Tensions between the parties were now on full display after the Israeli strike in Qatar. A key member of the American effort has attacked another, with America seen as complacent, complicit or blind. 200 U.S. troops would be sent to Israel to provide support to the ceasefire agreement, and would be joined by soldiers from several of the Arab countries that participated in this long-standing security cooperation. Even before that announcement, the Arab countries involved in this security collaboration had all signaled their support for Trump’s 20-point plan to end the Gaza war. The plan calls for Arab states to participate in the deployment of an international force to Gaza that would train a new Palestinian police force in the region. Security analysts said gulf states could provide financial and diplomatic support for an international force in Gaza but would probably refrain from committing their own military forces to the complex and dangerous mission. In a joint statement, five of the six Arab countries said that they supported the establishment of a mechanism that “guarantees the security of all sides,” but they have stopped short of publicly committing to deploy military forces. There’s a lot of concern in gulf states about what an unshackled Israel is going to do. At the same time, they are reliant on the U.S. as the guarantor of their security. They are also very concerned about Iran. (Source: The Washington Post - U.S.)

South Korea
Oct 14, 2025  Major General “Hank” Taylor, commander of the 8th Field Army in South Korea, told reporters that he’s using ChatGPT to help make military and personal decisions affecting the soldiers under his command. This includes the joint United Nations Command in South Korea, which Taylor currently leads as chief of staff. As a commander, I want to make better decisions, Taylor reportedly said. 'I want to make sure that I make decisions at the right time to give me the advantage.' (Source: Futurism - U.S.)

West Bank
13 October 2025 14:47  Palestinian prisoniers are released in Israeli-occupied West Bank. (Source: Sky News - United Kingdom)
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Europe

Hungary
15/10/2025  Hungary still imports a significant portion of its fossil fuels from Russia. The EU's REpowerEU roadmap plans to phase out all imports from Russia by 2027. This would also cut Hungary's oil imports from Russia through the Druzhba pipeline. "Currently, there are two oil pipelines leading to Hungary, and Brussels wants us to eliminate one in the name of diversification,' Hungarian FM Szijjártó said in Moscow today. "But how can the elimination of one pipeline be called diversification? How can one pipeline be considered safer than two?' he asked, calling it madness, complete illogicality. The other oil pipeline enters Hungary from Croatia. However, according to the Hungarian government, the Adria pipeline is insufficient for the country's needs as a landlocked country. (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)

Austria
10 October 2025  In the latest survey by pollster Lazarsfeld for news site oe24, the right-wingers come in first with 38 per cent of the vote – a gain of 5 percentage points compared to just six months ago. The FPÖ’s rise coincides with a sharp drop in popularity of the three parties that rule Austria: The Conservative People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the Liberal Neos party. FPÖ leader Kickl also comes in first when respondents were asked for their favourite choice for federal chancellor, with 30 per cent wanting to see him at the helm. That is almost as much as ÖVP leader and current Chancellor Christian Stocker on 14 per cent, SPÖ leader Babler at 11 per cent and Neos frontwoman Meinl-Reisinger with 7 per cent. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)

France
October 10, 2025   President Macron reappointed Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister today, just four days after he had resigned from the role, searching for a way out of France's worst political crisis in decades. Reactions. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Germany
15 October 2025  The German Government is planning to spend €80 billion on defence projects in the coming 15 months – including €26 billion for new frigates, €3.4 billion for new wheeled tanks, and €2.4 billion for an updated version of the Taurus missile. Germany abolished compulsory military service in 2011. On October 7, defence minister Pistorius (SPD) announced that, starting in 2027, the German army would build more than 270 new barrack buildings throughout the country. The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government is planning to introduce a lottery system for compulsory military service. The plan is to be presented to the public soon. The German army is suffering from severe manpower shortages that hamper the ambitious expansion plans presented by Merz and Pistorius. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has come out in favour of a full reintroduction of compulsory military service. Negotiators of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the coalition partner CDU have agreed on a four-step system. A questionnaire would be sent to around 400,000 men per year. At first, all young men and women will be asked in an official letter whether they are ready to serve in the German army, and fill in a questionnaire on their physical abilities and qualifications. Only men are required to respond; women can reply if they want to. In a second phase, those men who are to be invited for military examination and an interview would be selected by lottery. In a third step, the “winners” of this lottery would be conscripted into the army unless enough volunteers sign up to fill all open positions. If this fails, in the final phase general compulsory military service would be reintroduced. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)

Romania
October 13, 2025  Why Romania’s plan to buy 216 Abrams tanks is a bad idea? While the Romanians looked at other options for their much-needed MBT upgrade, such as the German Leopard 2A8 or South Korea’s K2 Black Panther, the Romanians apparently favor the costlier Abrams. In their view, it makes strategic sense, if only because it ties Romania closer to American supply chains. The US defense industrial supply chain cannot maintain its own systems, let alone be expected to provide for other countries in the event of a conflict! Romanian leaders seem to believe that being directly reliant on the United States would make them better off 'if a war with Russia ever erupted along their border'. This is the wrong decision. Like all European NATO nations, Romania must do better at maintaining its military capabilities. But it must do so within the confines of what is economically realistic and logistically viable. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Weichert

Russia
Wednesday 15 October 2025 07:06 BST  Ukraine’s rail network carries more than 63% of the country’s freight and 37% of passenger traffic. Russia is creating new technology to target trains. Russian forces have added a key upgrade to their drone fleet since the summer. Cameras and radio modems, which send and receive data wirelessly, have been fitted to various types of long-range strike drones, sharply increasing precision compared to preprogrammed models. The modified drones can fly up to 200 kilometers into territory. Now, as they have very precise Shahed drones, they are targeting individual diesel and electric locomotives. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom / The Associated Press - U.S.)

Oct 13, 2025 | 15:36 GMT  On Oct. 7, the World Bank released its ''Fall 2025 Economic Update,'' which projects that Russian real GDP growth will decline from 4.3% in 2024 to 0.9% this year. The Russian economy is entering a multi-year stagnation that, while enabling the Kremlin to sustain the war effort over the next 12 months, will steadily erode the fiscal, industrial and technological foundations required to keep fighting at current intensity beyond 2026. (Source: Stratfor - U.S.)

(Sunday), 12/10/2025 - 17:52  Russia attacked energy infrastructure in the regions of Donetsk, Odesa and Chernihiv overnight into Sunday. Russia’s defence ministry said yesterday it had shot down 32 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory, while Ukraine’s air force said that its air defences intercepted or jammed 103 of 118 Russian drones launched against Ukraine overnight. (Source: France 24 „with AP” - U.S.)

Saturday 11 October 2025 15:17 BST  Russia’s Defence Ministry stated yesterday that its strikes had targeted energy facilities supplying Ukraine’s military, without specifying locations. It confirmed the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and strike drones in the operation. More than 800,000 residents in Kyiv had their power restored today, following extensive Russian assaults on the nation's power grid that plunged vast swathes of the country into darkness. Ukraine’s air force said today that its air defences intercepted or jammed 54 of 78 Russian drones launched against Ukraine overnight, while Russia’s defence ministry said it had shot down 42 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

October 10, 2025 6:44 pm CET  Trump sincerely is aiming for peace in Ukraine, Putin said, adding the most striking example of his peacemaking credentials “is the situation in the Middle East.” “If Donald succeeds in accomplishing everything he’s aiming for, everything he’s talked about and trying to do, it will be a historic moment,” the Russian president gushed. Trump deserved the Nobel prize, says Putin. The Russian president says "the Nobel committee has lost credibility'. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Ukraine
October 15, 2025 5:05 PM GMT+2  Ukraine needs up to $20b in U.S. weapons through NATO programme, defence minister says. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

(Saturday), 11/10/2025 - 12:41  Russian attack on energy facilities. Large parts of Kyiv were plunged into darkness in the early hours yesterday, after Russian drones and missiles struck Ukrainian energy facilities, cutting power and water to homes and halting a key metro link across the Dnipro river. (Source: France 24)
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Europe
October 14, 2025  From telecom protocols to a 1.5 million row dataset, the reach and tactics of a mercenary phone-tracking company uncovered. In the spring of 2024, Lighthouse found a vast archive of data on the deep web. It contained thousands of phone numbers and hundreds of thousands of locations from nearly every country in the world. The data came from a little-known surveillance company called First Wap. Headquartered in Jakarta but run by a group of European executives, First Wap has quietly built a phone tracking empire spanning the globe. Most countries have a legal mandate to carry out domestic phone network surveillance. The First Wap archive demonstrates, however, how phone network connections can be leveraged to allow tracking all over the world, without authorisation from the targeted networks. In recent years, a number of investigations have explored the ways in which surveillance companies gain access to phone networks to enable this type of tracking. Lighthouse and its partners have previously written about how SS7 abuses were linked to the murder of a reporter in Mexico and a crackdown on an activist in Congo, and how they were enabled via leasing of Global Titles. Although in recent years some phone operators have acted to improve security, global imbalances remain. Stopping unauthorised signalling is expensive and as such tends to be better implemented by wealthier operators. When operators in the global minority world allow surveillance companies to access their systems and send traffic, they are increasing risk to people in the global majority. Last year, the UK’s telecom regulator took the step of banning Global Title leasing on the grounds that phone operators had failed to manage risk and UK networks were carrying large amounts of malicious signalling traffic, including surveillance traffic, into networks worldwide. But for real change to occur, other regulators in the EU need to follow suit. (Source: Lighthouse Reports - The Netherlands)

Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

October 15, 2025  In a Monday address to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), legal expert for the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) International, Rieder, warned that Turkey is systematically targeting Christians purely for practicing their faith. Turkey’s labeling of peaceful Christian residents as ‘security threats’ is a clear misuse of law and an attack on freedom of religion or belief, Rieder said during the OSCE Warsaw Human Dimension Conference. Ankara calls claims unfounded and part of a deliberate disinformation campaign. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Africa

Egypt
(14 October 2025)  "After fewer than seven hours in Israel, we took the short flight to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt; location of the mediated talks between Israel and Hamas that led to last week's breakthrough. On our descent, Egyptian F16s escorted us - the ultimate show for the president who loves displays of military might. Trump had wanted to celebrate every minute of the day. But the dangers in this region are many, and the risk seemed clear that he was declaring the ultimate deal before really landing it. That was reflected in the giant sign, written in capital letters, above the presidential podium in Sharm el-Sheikh: "PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST". There, I watched the extraordinary sight of world leaders filing into a room to stand behind Trump as he made his speech hailing peace. They lined up in front of their national flags and listened as he listed their countries one by one". Trump had been introduced to the stage by the host, Egyptian president Sisi, who said that the goal remained a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. Trump has changed his position markedly since the start of this year. He became increasingly irritated by the Israeli leadership and was drawn closer to his friends in the Gulf. That came amid a diplomatic move by the Europeans to isolate Israel over its escalating campaign in Gaza and to get the Saudi leadership onboard with their vision. Trump then shifted, drawn by his Gulf allies – whose wealth and "power" he frequently referred to during the drip. Trump presided over the signing ceremony in Sharm saying it had taken 3,000 years to get here. But there are still many more years to go - and it will take more than one man to get there.
(Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

13 October 2025   U.S. President Trump arrives in Sharm el-Sheikh for the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal summit. (Source:YouTube - U.S. / The Telegraph - United Kingdom)
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Tunisia
(Saturday), October 11, 2025  Residents entered the state-run Tunisian Chemical Group's (CGT) phosphate complex in the southern city of Gabes today, demanding its closure to prevent environmental pollution and respiratory illnesses, to balance public health demands with the production of phosphate, Tunisia's most valuable natural resource. Army soldiers and military vehicles were seen stationed inside the complex. In 2017, authorities pledged to dismantle the Gabes complex and replace it with a facility that meets international standards, acknowledging that its emissions posed a danger to local residents. However, the plan has yet to be implemented. Tons of industrial waste are discharged into Gabes's Chatt Essalam sea daily. The government aims to revive the phosphate industry by increasing production fivefold to 14 million tonnes by 2030 to capitalize on rising global demand. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

North America

United States
October 12, 2025  U.S. intelligence has been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on important Russian energy facilities, including oil refineries, far beyond the front line for months in a joint effort to weaken the economy, the Financial Times reported, citing unnamed Ukrainian and U.S. officials today. Moscow said this month that Washington and its NATO alliance were regularly supplying intelligence to Kyiv. ’The supply and use of the entire infrastructure of NATO and the United States to collect and transfer intelligence to Ukrainians is obvious,’ Kremlin spokesman Peskov told reporters then. Zelenskiy said yesterday he had discussed Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy system 'in a positive and productive call' with U.S. President Trump. The FT said U.S. intelligence helps Kyiv shape route planning, altitude, timing and mission decisions, enabling Ukraine's long-range, one-way attack drones to evade Russian air defences. A U.S. official was quoted as saying Ukraine selected the targets for long-range strikes and Washington then provided intelligence on the sites' vulnerabilities. The U.S. asked NATO allies to provide similar support, the U.S. officials said. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Nobel Peace Prize

October 10,  2025  After the Nobel Committee overlooked US President Trump and chose Venezuelan opposition leader Machado for the peace prize, White House slammed the committee, claiming that it placed politics over peace. (Source: The Week - India)

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Europe

Denmark
09:11, 11/10/2025, Saturday  Focusing squarely on the Arctic region, Denmark has unveiled a massive new defense and security package. The government announced a comprehensive security agreement that includes the purchase of 16 additional F-35 fighter jets and a multi-billion dollar infusion of funds for Arctic and North Atlantic security infrastructure. A substantial 29 billion kroner (approximately $2.8 billion) is earmarked for the new F-35 aircraft. This acquisition will bring the Royal Danish Air Force's total F-35 fleet to 43 units. Beyond the jet purchase, an additional 27.4 billion kroner ($2.7 billion) is allocated to bolster Denmark's presence in the strategically vital Arctic. The plan, developed with Greenland and the Faroe Islands, includes a new Arctic Command headquarters in Nuuk, Greenland, laying a submarine communications cable between Greenland and Denmark, and acquiring two new Arctic patrol vessels, drones, and maritime surveillance aircraft. (Source: Yeni Şafak - Turkey)

United Kingdom
14 October 2025  ‘Lost or destroyed’: Army records about soldier Wallace, who exposed abuses in Northern Ireland, have gone missing. (Source: Declassified UK)
by Norton-Taylor

Africa

Madagascar
13 October 2025  France evacuated Madagascan president Rajoelina from the country by a French military plane, amid protests. The unrest began over widespread water and electricity cuts. Former prime minister Christian Ntsay and businessman Ravatomanga, a close ally of the president, reportedly flew to Mauritius on a private jet yesterday night. (Source: Morning Star - United Kingdom)

(Sunday), Oct. 12, 2025  Earlier on Saturday, some troops from the elite CAPSAT unit that helped President Rajoelina seize power in a 2009 coup, urged fellow soldiers to disobey orders and back the youth-led protests. Late on Saturday, the presidency released a statement in response to what it called the spread of false information on social media, following widespread speculation that Rajoelina, who also has French citizenship, had fled the country. Madagascar's prime minister Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo called for calm and unity yesterday, hours after some soldiers joined youth protesters, escorting them as they entered Antananarivo’s May 13 Square, the scene of many political uprising, for the first time since demonstrations began over water and electricity shortages on Sept. 25. Rajoelina appointed Zafisambo and a new defense and security minister after dissolving the previous government in response to the protests. Zafisambo said the government was fully ready to listen and engage in dialogue with all factions - youth, unions, or the military. The demonstrators are demanding that Rajoelina step down, apologize to the country, and dissolve the Senate and electoral commission. At least 22 people have been killed and 100 injured in the unrest. (Source: The Korea Herald - South Korea / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Asia

Philippines
October 14, 2025  China deployed naval assets as part of efforts to 'obstruct' a Philippine government supply mission near contested features in the South China Sea, the Philippines' maritime zone: Sabina Shoal - situated about 90 miles west of the Philippines' westernmost province of Palawan-and Scarborough Shoal, traditionally a rich fishing ground for both Chinese and Filipino anglers. Chinese maritime forces once again sought to block a joint Philippine coast guard and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources convoy tasked with delivering fuel and groceries to local fishermen. The supply team encountered about 10 Chinese coast guard ships and another 10 vessels belonging to China's 'maritime militia' near both features. People's Liberation Army Navy helicopters and ships, including a high-speed response boat, were also spotted near Scarborough Shoal. China's coast guard accused Manila of violating the "environmental reserve" that Beijing unilaterally declared over a large section of Scarborough Shoal last month. The mission succeeded in handing supplies to almost 100 fishing vessels. (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

Caribbean

Cuba
10/13/25 7:00 AM ET  Venezuela’s collapse dominates the headlines, but Cuba’s slow-motion breakdown could have far more profound consequences. A failed state just 90 miles from Florida would unleash new migration waves, invite rival powers into the region, and test America’s resolve. (Source:The Hill - U.S.)

North America

United States
Oct. 15, 2025  The Trump administration has secretly authorized the C.I.A. to conduct covert action in Venezuela, according to U.S. officials, stepping up a campaign against Maduro, the country’s authoritarian leader. For weeks, the U.S. military has been targeting boats off the Venezuelan coast it says are transporting drugs, killing 27 people. In all, the Navy has eight surface warships and a submarine in the Caribbean. Today, Mr. Trump said he had made the authorization because Venezuela had 'emptied their prisons into the United States of America.' The president appeared to be referring to claims by his administration that members of the Tren de Aragua prison gang had been sent into the United States to commit crimes. In March, Mr. Trump proclaimed the gang a terrorist organization that was 'conducting irregular warfare' against the United States under the orders of the Maduro government. (Source: The New York Times - U.S.)

October 15, 2025  The United States informed Europe that it would withdraw from a joint initiative to counter foreign disinformation. The program especially targeted China, Iran, and Russia. In early September, a U.S. State Department notice informed European capitals that the 2014 memoranda of understanding to unify American and European approaches to disinformation had been nullified. The initiative was managed by the Global Engagement Center (GEC) within the State Department, although the GEC was formally dismantled in late 2024. 'Not only was GEC’s infamous censorship activity profoundly misaligned with this administration’s pro-free speech position, it was woefully and embarrassingly ineffective on its own terms,' the Trump administration’s acting undersecretary for public diplomacy commented. (Source: The Council on Foreign Relations - U.S.)

October 14, 2025  Problems with allies and partners show up in different ways in three key areas: intelligence sharing, coalition planning, and arms sales. The report offers detailed recommendations to help U.S. policymakers more effectively work with the allies and partners that will be central to U.S. strategy in Europe and especially in the Indo-Pacific in the coming decades. (Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies - U.S.)

NATO

15.10.2025  NATO introduced the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative in July after US President Trump briefly suspended military aid to Ukraine, accusing allies of failing to share the burden. Under the program, the US provides weapons to Ukraine while Western allies cover the costs. By August, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden had allocated a total of $2.2 billion for the program. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

South America

Argentina
15/10/2025, Wednesday  US President Trump has announced his full endorsement for Argentine President Milei during a joint appearance at the White House, praising Milei for doing the "right things" for Argentine, ahead of Argentina's legislative elections. Trump predicted Milei would win and praised his economic reforms. The endorsement comes as Milei's La Libertad Avanza party prepares for elections on October 26. The political backing from the White House aligns with economic support signals from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who recently stated his department stands ready to assist Argentina, describing the South American nation as "a systemically important US ally in Latin America." (Source: Yeni Şafak - Turkey)

Venezuela
(October 14, 2025)  Six killed after US strikes another boat off coast of Venezuela. (Source: CNN - U.S.)

Space

Oct 13, 2025 9:00 PM  Roughly half of geostationary satellite signals, many carrying sensitive consumer, corporate, and government communications, have been left entirely vulnerable to eavesdropping, a team of researchers at UC San Diego and the University of Maryland revealed today in a study that will likely resonate across the cybersecurity industry, telecom firms, and inside military and intelligence agencies worldwide. For three years, the UCSD and UMD researchers developed and used an off-the-shelf, $800 satellite receiver system on the roof of a university building in the La Jolla seaside neighborhood of San Diego to pick up the communications of geosynchronous satellites in the small band of space visible from their Southern California vantage point. By simply pointing their dish at different satellites and spending months interpreting the obscure - but unprotected - signals they received from them, the researchers assembled an alarming collection of private data: They obtained samples of the contents of Americans’ calls and text messages on T-Mobile’s cellular network, data from airline passengers’ in-flight Wi-Fi browsing, communications to and from critical infrastructure such as electric utilities and offshore oil and gas platforms, and even US and Mexican military and law enforcement communications that revealed the locations of personnel, equipment, and facilities. The group’s paper, which they’re presenting this week at an Association for Computing Machinery conference in Taiwan, is titled “Don’t Look Up”. The researchers say that they’ve spent nearly the past year warning companies and agencies whose sensitive data they found exposed in satellite communications. Most of them moved quickly to encrypt those communications and protect the data. The researchers’ work looked at only a small fraction of geostationary satellites whose signals they could pick up from San Diego - roughly 15 percent of those in operation, by the researchers’ estimate. UCSD cryptography professor Heninger, who co-led the study, compares their study’s revelation - the sheer scale of the unprotected satellite data available for the taking - to some of the revelations of Snowden that showed how the NSA and Britain’s GCHQ were obtaining telecom and internet data on an enormous scale, often by secretly tapping directly into communications infrastructure. (Source: Wired - U.S.)

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Europe

United Kingdom
(11 October 2025)  United Kingdom sanctions have frozen more than £25bn of Russian assets since february 2022. But until now, funds sent to Ukraine using Russian assets had only been taken from profits and interest accrued on them. The UK is 'ready to progress to using the full value of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's war' effort, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said. The announcement comes after European leaders met in Copenhagen last week to discuss using frozen Russian assets for a €140bn ($162bn; £121bn) loan to Ukraine. The value of frozen Russian assets in the EU is estimated to be almost €211bn (£181bn). In a statement, the leaders of the United Kingdom, France and Germany said the joint action 'would increase pressure' on Russian President Putin. It added the move would be taken in close cooperation with the US. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Africa

Morocco
11/10/2025  Morocco's King Mohammed VI urges speedy social reforms following youth-led protests. Yesterday he said improving public education and healthcare was a priority. The protesters have taken to the streets almost every night since September 27. (Source: France 24)
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Asia

Japan
October 11, 2025  China has been intensifying its activities across the entire region surrounding Japan, including in the East China Sea, particularly in the area around the Senkaku Islands, the Sea of Japan, and the western Pacific Ocean, extending beyond the so-called the first island chain to the second island chain. A Chinese naval flotilla, led by a pair of destroyers, was tracked sailing around nearly all of Japan’s territory, including its outlying southwestern islands, in less than a month, according to data released by Japan’s Defense Ministry. The Chinese ships began their voyage around Japan on September 16-17, when they transited the Tsushima Strait, located between Japan and South Korea, moving into the Sea of Japan - also known as the East Sea in South Korea - from the East China Sea. The Chinese flotilla later departed the Sea of Japan for the North Pacific as it transited the Soya Strait - also known as the La Pérouse Strait in Russia - on September 22-23. The strait lies between Russia’s Sakhalin Island and Japan’s main island of Hokkaido. (Source: The Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

Philippines
Oct 12, 2025, 12:21 AM  6.0-magnitude quake hits off southern Philippines late yesterday. It was not yet clear if the 6.0-magnitude quake in Surigao del Sur was an aftershock of the 6.7- and the 7.4-magnitude tremors that struck off Manay town in Mindanao region a day ago, which killed at least eight people. The series of quakes came just days after a magnitude 6.9 earthquake killed 75 people and injured more than 1,200 in Cebu province in central Philippines, according to government data. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / AFP - France)

Australia

October 10, 2025  Australia has officially received its first two AH-64E Apache attack helicopters. These helicopters are part of a 29-aircraft deal, with the final deliveries scheduled for 2029. Northern Australia is geographically closer to the Pacific’s contested maritime domains - namely the South China Sea, Arafura Sea, and Indo-Pacific littorals. By aligning aviation assets forward, Australia shortens the 'kill chain' - decreasing transit time, allowing for faster reaction, and giving Australian forces better integration with maritime/land/intelligence assets. The northern posture becomes more credible. Canberra hopes that the introduction of Apaches will raise the costs of hostile actions near Australian territory or in adjacent seas. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Weichert. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine.

North America

United States
October 11, 2025  „As the Trump administration restructures the American armed forces by instituting a 10-point plan announced at the recent meeting of the generals and flag officers at Quantico, by renaming the Department of Defense the War Department, by reinvigorating our industrial plant to build more ships, planes, and other war platforms, by modernizing our nuclear forces, by pursuing Golden Dome defenses, and by redirecting the focus of our armed forces to protecting the homeland and securing the Western Hemisphere, the long-delayed need to emancipate our European allies into global adulthood is upon us. It is time for the United States to cut NATO’s umbilical cord”. NATO is 76 years old, but continues to act as a young adult, and sometimes acts like a child, always looking to the United States for financial and military support. That has to end. „The Trump administration is ending it”. U.S. troops are still there (in Europe), and now they are committed to fighting on behalf of 31 other countries. NATO’s first Secretary General Lord Ismay famously remarked that the purpose of the alliance was “to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.’ The Soviet Union hasn’t existed since 1991. Germany threatens no one. But the Americans are still ’in’ despite the fact that the European Union’s gross domestic product is nearly 70 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product. Restructuring NATO appears to be one aspect of the forthcoming National Defense Strategy (NDS) as foreshadowed in War Secretary Hegseth’s statement of May 2, 2025. „Secretary Hegseth outlined three priorities for the NDS: defense of the homeland, deterring China in the Indo-Pacific, and burden-sharing with our allies and partners throughout the world. Burden-sharing includes most especially NATO”. Under Secretary for Policy Colby is heading-up the NDS, just as he did in Trump’s first term. „Colby’s 2018 NDS shifted the department’s focus from small peripheral wars to great power competition, especially with China. Colby also has expressed concern that wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have distracted American policymakers from the greater threat in the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s Middle East peace proposals, efforts to end the Ukraine War, and repeated calls for greater burden-sharing by our European allies fit neatly within the forthcoming NDS as projected by Hegseth. The forthcoming 2025 NDS, however, will refocus the War Department on protecting the homeland and securing the Western Hemisphere as part of Trump’s America First foreign policy. This approach has already manifested itself in sealing the nation’s southern border, mass deportations of illegal aliens, a renewed interest in controlling the Panama Canal, talk about acquiring Greenland, dispatching National Guard troops to combat crime in major cities, and using the armed forces to attack narco-terrorists in the Caribbean Sea. Trump has reinvigorated the Monroe Doctrine, which the Obama-Biden administrations treated as a historical relic of a distant past”. Trump’s approach to defense strategy is geographical. It begins with homeland and hemispheric defense and then prioritizes U.S. interests in Eurasia by seeking to shift resources from the Middle East and Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Finally, it recalls Reagan’s approach of peace through strength. The 2025 NDS will not be isolationist or limited to hemispheric defense. As Spykman pointed out in America’s Strategy in World Politics, “hemispheric defense is no defense at all.” But failing to protect the homeland and secure the Western Hemisphere would cripple our ability to project power abroad when it is in our interests to do so. The 2025 NDS will focus on geographical interests rather than “values.” The U.S. armed forces should fight for concrete security interests, not for “democracy.” The Trump administration’s approach to the NDS and NATO received (surprising) support in the pages of Foreign Affairs. Kavanagh of Georgetown’s Center for Security Studies and Slezkine of the Stimson Center applaud Trump for seeking to rebalance the transatlantic relationship. Kavanaugh and Slezkine agree with Trump’s refocus on the Western Hemisphere and counsel “pulling back from Europe and “avoiding the hard ‘pivot to Asia.’ ” NATO, they continue,” should “confine its activities to the Euro-Atlantic region” instead of ’going global’ in search of new missions after the fall of the Soviet Union. Like Kennan did, Kavanaugh and Slezkine criticize NATO enlargement as unnecessary and provocative. As in Ukraine, Trump should reduce the “risk of entanglement and the temptation U.S. policymakers might feel to support direct involvement.” Also, like Kennan, they are critical of the internationalists’ scheme to promote democracy throughout the world. Kavanaugh and Slezkine urge Trump to carry out a “retrenchment” of U.S. forces in Europe and to “narrow the scope of the U.S. military commitment to Europe in a crisis.” There is no longer a need for U.S. soldiers to be on the frontlines in Europe. Kavanaugh and Slezkine also urge Trump to avoid a strong pivot to Asia as recommended by so-called “China hawks’ within the administration. Instead, they argue, the U.S. should “pivot home” by focusing on the Western Hemisphere, border security, missile defense, and port security. Their proposed “pivot home” will surely be part of the 2025 NDS, but they may be too sanguine about the threat posed by China to our interests in the Indo-Pacific. „NATO was an important alliance, but as currently structured it has outlived its usefulness. Europe can stand on its own two feet without being tethered to the U.S. umbilical cord. Sevent-six years as a dependent is enough”. (Source: RealClearWorld)
by Sempa

South America

Venezuela
12.10.2025  President Maduro orders large-scale drills involving over 1,500 soldiers and civilians to defend national sovereignty amid tensions with US. The drill aims to strengthen the protection of public institutions, maintain internal order, and enhance the effectiveness of Venezuela’s air defense systems. President Maduro announced via social media that new defense zones have been established in the northeastern states of Anzoategui, Monagas, and Bolivar. He emphasized that these zones form a vital corridor extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Orinoco River and down to the Brazilian border. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

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