Egyik 19

.

Interjú Orbán Viktor miniszterelnökkel

orosz-ukrán háborúról, választás tétjéről, reptér visszavásárlásáról;

 a Kossuth Rádió Jó reggelt, Magyarország! című műsorában

- hangzóanyag -

 Források:

- (soundcloud):

https://tinyurl.com/3tea4jpz

- (hirado / Kossuth Rádió):

https://tinyurl.com/hutwycj6

Kulcsszavak:

I. világháború    II. világháború    Afrika    Egyesült Államok    Európa    Európai Parlament    Európai Unió    Franciaország    hangzóanyag    Katar    Kína    Kuba    Liszt Ferenc Nemzetközi Repülőtér    Magyarország    NATO    Németország    Oroszország    Szlovákia    Ukrajna
.

.

 "Tudom, kik és miért lőttek le" - közli Fico Robert, szlovák miniszterelnök

- video -

(magyar szinkronnal, angol nyelvű felirattal)

(Forrás: YouTube / Hetek)

https://tinyurl.com/m45wpcye

(2024. VI. 8.-ig: 42 710 megtekintés.

Kulcsszavak:

Európai Unió    Irak    Kína    Magyarország    NATO    Oroszország    Szlovákia    Ukrajna    Visegrádi országok

.4 6 8

.

Ukraine
June 4, 2024  Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, is starting to get upset. On June 2, he gave an interview to the Guardian newspaper in which he said Trump risks becoming a 'loser president' if he cuts military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, if Trump imposes what Zelensky called a "bad peace deal" on Ukraine, it would mean the end of the United States as a 'global actor." According to Zelensky, the United States "will no longer be the leader of the world." This is what the former comedian says, who became the president of Ukraine due to a strange election in 2019. He doesn't have a lot of international geopolitical experience on his CV, but Zelenskyy has a go. Trump leads the polls in November. Zelensky is taking a risk, but he knows what the alternative is - Zelensky is trying to drag the United States into direct war with Russia. The Ukrainians actually attacked a massive radar installation (and possibly a second one) deep inside Russia that is part of the ballistic nuclear early warning network. A Ukrainian 'intelligence officer' bragged to Western media in a cavalier tone of someone who had no idea what he was talking about: 'Those radars were Russia's eyes, and we at least partially shut them down." This Ukrainian does not understand what this means. Attacking the early warning system of any nuclear power plant is highly destabilizing, as it can be interpreted as preparation for a nuclear strike. Then when the next administration takes over, there will be no chance of negotiation; those radars, Russia's eyes, will act against US forces. After November, the Biden administration doesn't care. But Ukraine would be a stupid war for America. It is stupid for America in the same way that most wars since the end of the Cold War have been stupid. These were wars of choice, not wars of necessity. And Zelensky drags America into the war - or Zelensky loses. Washington must tell the small bantam cockerel, big attitude, that he must learn to negotiate peace or he will end up in a stew pot. (Source: brusselssignal)

.

.

Magyarország
(Kedd), 2024.01.30.  Berretta: - Másfél hónapja nyomást gyakorolnak Önre az európai partnerei, hogy fogadjon el egy 50 milliárd euro-s segélyezési tervet Ukrajna számára az európai költségvetésből. Csütörtökön mit fog javasolni?
- Semmi nem változott. Tehát a magyar álláspont továbbra is egyértelmű: ahogy telik az idő, továbbra is úgy gondoljuk, hogy az ukrajnai háborúnak nincs katonai megoldása. Sajnos a 26 másik fél még mindig úgy gondolja, hogy van katonai megoldás. Az ő javaslatuk a katonai megoldás irányába mutat, amit én nem támogatok. És a magyaroknak sem tetszik. Mi úgy gondoljuk, hogy az egyetlen megoldás a diplomáciai megoldás. Ez tűzszünetet és béketárgyalásokat jelent. Ebben az összefüggésben arra kérnek bennünket, hogy négy év alatt 50 milliárd euro-t adjunk Ukrajnának. Mivel számunkra nem tetszik a háború eszkalálódása, és nem gondoljuk, hogy a megoldás a csatatéren születik, nem tetszik nekünk ez a javaslat. Jogunk van nem egyetérteni, mert van egy költségvetésünk az Európai Unióban, ami három évvel ezelőtt lett elfogadva a többi országgal együtt, beleértve Magyarországot. Ez az európai költségvetés olyan alap, amelyet mások most meg akarnak változtatni. Úgy gondolom, hogy az Európai Unió minden tagjának joga van megvédeni a költségvetés azon változatát, ahogyan azt létrehozták. Ez egy nagyon is európai álláspont, mivel ezt az európai költségvetést 27 tagállam fogadta el. Az alapvető kérdés ebben az esetben a szuverenitás kérdése. Magyarország, mint szuverén állam ellenzi a költségvetésnek ezt a módosítását. Sajnos egy független országnak ezt a jogát a 26-ok nem fogadják el. Ezért próbálnak minket meggyőzni, majd ezután nyomást gyakorolni, majd zsarolni, hogy rákényszerítsenek, hogy csatlakozzunk hozzájuk. Nagyon nehéz egyedül maradni ebben a családban. Az Európai Unió vagy még inkább az európai egység támogatójaként osztom azt a nézetet, hogy az európai egység érték. Magyarország nem szívesen él a vétójogával, és szavaz mások ellen, mert megértjük, hogy az egység érték. Tehát ez a nagy kihívás, amivel mindannyian szembesülünk: hogyan kerüljünk ki ebből a helyzetből?
- Ön tett egy ajánlatot szombaton…
- Úgy döntöttünk, hogy egy kompromisszumos ajánlatot teszünk: rendben, nem értünk egyet a költségvetés módosításával. Nem értünk egyet azzal, hogy 50 milliárd euro-t kelljen adnunk, ami egy óriási összeg. Nem értünk egyet azzal, hogy ezt négy évre kellene biztosítanunk, és így tovább. De legyen, Magyarország kész részt venni a 27-ek megoldásában, ha garantálják, hogy minden évben döntünk arról, hogy továbbra is küldjük-e ezt a pénzt, vagy sem. És ennek az évenkénti döntésnek ugyanolyan jogalapja kell, hogy legyen, mint ma: egyhangúnak kell lennie. Sajnos ezt az álláspontot egyes országok úgy értik vagy értelmezik, mint egy eszközt arra, hogy minden évben megzsarolják őket.
- Önnek van egy bizonyos múltja ezen a téren…
- A mi álláspontunk az, hogy ez nem a vétóval való zsarolásáról szól, hanem az Európai Unió egységének helyreállításáról és fenntartásáról. Tehát ha valakit arra kényszerítünk, hogy részese legyen valaminek, amit nem szeret, és joga van ahhoz, hogy ne legyen részese, de rá nyomást gyakoroltak, őt kényszerítették bármilyen módon, hogy részese legyen, akkor tisztességes és észszerű, hogy minden évben lehetőséget adjunk neki arra, hogy részt vegyen a döntésben, hogy ez folytatódjon-e, vagy sem. Ez lenne a kompromisszum. Ez a mi álláspontunk.
- És hogyan fogadják jelenleg a javaslatát? Scholz kancellár például?
- Ha jól értem, a fogadtatás a Financial Times-ban jelent meg… Szóval nem éppen pozitív a visszhangja.
- A Financial Times hétfőn valóban közölt egy cikket, amelyben azt állították, hogy az unió vétó esetén úgy büntethetné a magyar gazdaságot, hogy megtagadná Magyarországtól az európai kifizetéseket, ami hatással lenne az Önök országába irányuló befektetésekre és a valutára. Hallott már ilyen tervről?
- Ez egyfajta zsarolási útmutató. Röviden összefoglalva: azt mondják, hogyha szuverén országként viselkedünk, akkor Magyarországot azonnal hatalmas pénzügyi blokád alá veszik, és összekötik az ukrán kérdést a jogállamisággal. A kettőnek semmi köze egymáshoz! Hogy akkor Magyarországon armageddon lenne. Ez áll a Financial Times által közzétett dokumentumban. A dokumentum hitelességében nem kételkedem. Brüsszelt ismerve képesek rá.
- Az Európai Tanács egyik magas rangú tisztviselője a közzététel után egyfajta cáfolatot adott ki, mondván, hogy ez egy Magyarország gazdasági helyzetéről szóló feljegyzés volt, amelyet a tanács főtitkárságának felelőssége mellett készítettek. Nem tudjuk pontosan, hogy miről van szó, de a tanács egyfajta korrekciót tesz közzé…
- Mindannyiunknak van némi tapasztalatunk a nemzetközi politikában. Nem az óvodából jöttünk ki. Ha a Financial Times közöl egy dokumentumot, amiben részletesen leírják a Magyarország elleni pénzügyi blokád és a velünk szembeni zsarolás forgatókönyvét, akkor biztosak lehetünk abban, hogy létezik ilyen. Megértem, hogy ezt a többieknek milyen nehéz elfogadni, hiszen az Európai Unió az elmúlt években egyre inkább imperialista irányba mozdult el, különösen az Egyesült Királyság kilépése után. Egyre kevésbé szuverén államok közösségéről van szó. Egyre többször, függetlenül attól, hogy milyen jogaid vannak a Szerződések alapján, milyen észszerű érvet hozol fel nekik, olyasmire próbálnak rákényszeríteni, amit nem akarsz. Még konkrétabban: Brüsszel az elmúlt években ideológiai háborút vív Magyarország ellen, és folyamatosan zsarolni próbál bennünket. Még a bizottság elnöke is nyilvánosan kijelentette a legutóbbi parlamenti ülésen, hogy Magyarország addig nem kapja meg a neki járó uniós forrásokat, amíg nem hajlandó változtatni a migrációval és a genderrel kapcsolatos álláspontján. Szóval mi ez, ha nem zsarolás? Mi, magyarok hosszú évek óta ilyen körülmények között élünk.
- A másik 26 tagállam azt állítja, hogy egy évente jóváhagyott éves terv nem teszi lehetővé Ukrajnának, hogy négy évre tervezze kiadásait. Ez elfogadható érv az Ön szemében?
- Ez egy olyan érv, amelyet komolyan kell venni, de nem fogadom el. Először is nem tudjuk, mi lesz a következő három-négy hónapban Ukrajnában. Hát még négy év múlva… Másodszor, senki sem tudja, hogy az amerikaiak részt vesznek-e a játékban, akár most, akár a novemberi amerikai választások után. Harmadszor: ki végezte el az összeadást, ki számolt? Miért pont 50 milliárd euro? Nem tudjuk pontosan, hogy ez az összeg minek felel meg. És végül a fő érv, legalábbis egy demokrata számára, hogy öt hónap múlva választások lesznek Európában. Teljesen figyelmen kívül hagynánk az európaiak véleményét, ha ma olyan döntést hoznánk, amely négy évre lekötné Európát, és ez egy óriási összegre vonatkozik. Mintha nem lenne jelentősége az emberek véleményének, bármi legyen is a júniusi európai parlamenti választás eredménye. Ha Európa jogállamiságon alapuló demokratikus közösségként kíván viselkedni, egyszerűen nem hozhatunk ilyen döntést. ***
- Azt tudja, hogy az ukránok számára sürgős…
- Megértem az ukránokat. Szeretnék egy hatalmas összeg garanciáját a lehető leghosszabb ideig. Értem, de ez nem európai érdek. Európában másként kell viselkednünk. Ennyi pénzre az európaiaknak is szükségük van. Európában egyre jobban szenvedünk a gazdaság gyenge teljesítményétől. Ez a pénz nagyon hasznos lenne az európai népeknek, a franciáknak, a németeknek, a magyaroknak, a lengyeleknek… Összességében úgy gondolom, hogy több érv van a mi megoldásunk mellett – évenkénti döntés, a fejlemények függvényében felülvizsgálva –, mint az ellen-oldalnak, akik 50 milliárd euro-t szeretnének egyszerre kiosztani Ukrajnának négy évre.
- Mit válaszol azoknak, akik azt gondolják, hogy legbelül Trump novemberi megválasztását várja, hogy az Ön nézőpontja győzedelmeskedjen? Nagy szövetséges lenne Ön számára…
- Térjünk vissza 2016-ba, az első kampányához, a választások előtt. Akkoriban mindenki azt mondta, hogy a választást Clinton nyeri, nem Trump. Akkoriban világosan megmondtam, hogy Trump-ra szükségünk van Európában. Mert amikor Trump azt mondja, hogy „Tegyük újra naggyá Amerikát” vagy „Amerika az első”, az legitimál minket abban, hogy „Tegyük újra naggyá Európát” és „Európa az első”. Tegyék Európát az első helyre, tegyék Franciaországot az első helyre, és tegyék Magyarországot az első helyre. Ez a normális hozzáállás a nemzetközi politikában, ha nemzeti érdeken alapuló megállapodásokat akarunk találni. Végül nem szabad elfelejtenünk, hogy Trump az Egyesült Államok egyik legsikeresebb külpolitikát folytató elnöke volt. Egyetlen háborút sem indított el. Az Ábrahám-megállapodások volt az egyetlen komoly esély arra, hogy békét, egyensúlyt és elfogadható életformát teremtsünk a nagyon nehéz közel-keleti régióban. Személyes meggyőződésem továbbra is az, hogyha 2022 februárjában Trumpn-ak hívják az amerikai elnököt, nem lett volna háború Európában. Ma nem látok rajta kívül senkit sem Európában, sem Amerikában, aki elég erős vezető lenne ahhoz, hogy megállítsa a háborút. A békének van neve: Trump.
- von der Leyen elnök az Európai Parlamentben egyértelművé tette, hogy mintegy 20 milliárd euro-t nem fizetnek ki Magyarországnak mindaddig, amíg bizonyos problémák fennállnak Magyarországon, mint például a gyermekvédelmi törvény az LMBTQ-személyekkel, a tudományos szabadságot ért csorbák, a csalás elleni küzdelem hiányosságai. Hogyan reagál erre az emlékeztetésre?
- Először is emlékeztetni kell arra, hogy a bizottság három hónappal ezelőtt egyértelműen kijelentette, hogy a magyar közbeszerzésekre vonatkozó szabályozással nincs semmilyen probléma. Ez egy jó szabályozás. Ebből a szempontból Magyarország az EU-tagállamok legjobb első harmadában található. A korrupció elleni küzdelem kudarca tehát már nem egy szilárd érv. Majd a bizottság kimondta, hogy a magyarországi igazságszolgáltatás rendben van. Ezért az Európai Unió legerősebben ellenőrzött és újraértékelt igazságszolgáltatási rendszerével rendelkezünk. Ennek a kifogásnak is vége. De mivel a bizottságot politikai szándék vezérli, mert ideológiai háborút folytat Magyarország ellen, von der Leyen elnöknek új sérelmeket kell kreálnia Magyarország megtámadására és zsarolására. Az új sérelem pedig a migrációra és a genderre vonatkozik. Ennek semmi köze a korrupcióhoz vagy az igazságszolgáltatás minőségéhez, Magyarország ebből a szempontból jól áll. Nyilvánvaló tehát, hogy nem a jogállamiság az igazi érv Magyarország ellen. Nem is beszélve a zsarolási kísérletről, amely azt mondja: ha Magyarország nem adja oda az 50 milliárd euro-t Ukrajnának, akkor megfosztjuk a tanácsi szavazati jogától. Ez egyértelműen tisztességtelen magatartás, mert egy ország jogának megvonásáról csak akkor lehet szavazni, ha probléma van a jogállamisággal. De Ukrajnának semmi köze a jogállamisághoz! Az európai intézmények nem veszik komolyan a jogállamiságot. Ez csak egy eszköz a szuverenitásukat megőrizni óhajtó és saját véleménnyel rendelkező országok zsarolására. Másrészt ez nem jó Magyarországnak, mert mint minden normális ember, mi is szeretjük, ha szeretnek minket. Szeretjük, ha emberként és országként tisztelnek bennünket, amit méltánytalanul megtagadnak Magyarországtól. Ennek ellenére továbbra is úgy gondolom, hogy az európai egység fontos.
- Beszélt Meloni asszonnyal erről a helyzetről?
- Folyamatosan beszélek mindenkivel.
- Támogatja ő Önt?
- Nem, egyedül vagyunk. Számunkra ez elvi kérdés, de a többi 26 ország hatalmi kérdést csinál belőle. Sajnos ez egy nehéz helyzet. Mint tudják, sok-sok éve vagyok az Európai Tanács tagja. Ezekben a bonyolult helyzetekben az a fontos, amit stratégiai nyugalomnak nevezünk: ne ugorj rá mindenre, ami mozog, ne reagálj azonnal, maradj nyugodt. Fontos, hogy az európaiak megértsék, hogy a tagállamok, ha nem értenek egyet olyan kérdésekben, mint a háború, a migráció, a gender, azonnal imperialista reakciót tapasztalnak Brüsszelből, és a zsarolás egy formájának vetik őket alá.
- Európa súlyos mezőgazdasági válságon megy keresztül. Magyarországot érintette az európai piac megnyitása az ukrán termékek előtt. Mit vár a bizottságtól, amelynek júniusig megoldást kell javasolnia?
- Ez a történet megmutatja, hogy a háborútól függetlenül milyen komoly probléma Ukrajna Európa számára. A háború csak rávilágít Ukrajna fontosságára, de a háború nélkül is jelentős kihívást jelent Európa számára Ukrajna, és meg kell értenie, hogy miként közeledjen az Európai Unióhoz. Nagyon óvatosnak kell lennünk, mert Ukrajna hatalmas ország. És Ukrajna közeledése az Európai Unióhoz vagy akár az Európai Unióhoz való csatlakozása katasztrofális hatással lesz, vagy katasztrofális hatással lehetne az európai gazdaságokra, különösen a mezőgazdasági szektorban. Tehát mi történik? Sokat szenvedünk itt Magyarországon, mert szomszéd ország vagyunk, ahogy Lengyelország is. Önök, Franciaországban, messze vannak. Önöket mi védjük, ha szabad így mondanom. A kontinens távol tartja Ukrajnát Önöktől, de előbb-utóbb Franciaországot is eléri az ukrán gazdaság Európai Unióra gyakorolt hatása. És Önök pontosan ugyanúgy szenvedni fognak, mint mi. Nagyon egységesnek kell lennünk, és világosan el kell magyaráznunk az ukránoknak, milyen lépéseket kell tenni annak érdekében, hogy közelítsük feléjük az Európai Uniót és a piacainkat. Az ukrán mezőgazdasági termelés jóval olcsóbb, mint a francia és a magyar gazdáké, és ez nem fenntartható. Nem tudunk versenyezni velük, és tönkretesszük mezőgazdasági közösségeinket. Ezt nem tehetjük meg; az ukránoknak ezt meg kell érteniük. A bizottságnak az európai érdekeket kell megvédenie az ukránokkal szemben, nem pedig az ukrán érdekeket az európai gazdákkal szemben.
(Forrás: miniszterelnok *)
* Miniszterelnöki Kabinetiroda

*** Kiemelés tőlem - J.

.

.

European Parliament
Jan 25, 24  A forecast.     The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and centre-left and green parties losing votes and seats.     We collected the most recent opinion polls in every EU member state and applied a statistical model of the performance of national parties in previous European Parliament elections, building on a model we developed and used for the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections.        The results show that the two main political groups in the parliament – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – will likely continue to lose seats which is resulting in an increasing fragmentation of European party systems, at both the national and European levels.     We expect the EPP to remain the largest group in the parliament, and therefore maintain most agenda-setting power, including over the choice of the next commission president. Our model predicts significant seat losses for the EPP in Germany, Italy, Romania, and Ireland, but significant gains in Spain.     We forecast that the S&D will lose a lot of seats in Germany, and the Netherlands, and will gain most seats in Poland.     The “grand coalition” of the EPP and the S&D is set to lose seats, holding 42 per cent of the total, compared to its current 45 per cent.     We predict that the centrist Renew Europe (RE) group and the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) will also lose seats, falling from 101 to 86 and 71 to 61 respectively. We expect RE to lose most seats in France and Spain, and to make most gains in the Czech Republic and Italy and the G/EFA to lose most seats in Germany, France, and Italy.     Even with the RE group, the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups will only hold 54 per cent of the seats, compared to its current 60 per cent - not enough for these three groups to guarantee a winning majority when they vote together.     Almost half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups.     The Left group should increase their representation from 38 to 44 seats - it will make most gains in Germany, France, and Ireland. In addition, if the Five Star Movement in Italy, which we predict will win 13 seats, decided not to sit with the non-attached (NI) MEPs, it may choose to join either the G/EFA or the Left, which would bolster the number of MEPs sitting to the left of the S&D.     The left coalition – of the S&D, the G/EFA, and the Left – will lose seats, with 33 per cent of the total, compared to the current 35 per cent. And, even if the left coalition can secure the support of RE – which they have done on environmental and social rights issues during the current term – it would hold only 45 per cent of the seats, compared to 50 per cent in the current parliament.     The main winners in the elections will be the populist right. The major winner will be the radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which we expect to gain 40 seats and, with almost 100 MEPs, to emerge as the third largest group in the new parliament.     A centre-right coalition – of the EPP, RE, and the ECR – will likely lose some seats, holding 48 per cent instead of the current 49 per cent. A “populist right coalition” – made up of the EPP, the ECR, and ID – will increase their share of the seats from 43 per cent to 49 per cent.     The majority of the non-attached MEPs are from extreme right parties, meaning that with their support, majority coalitions could form to the right of RE for the first time in the history of the European Parliament. The “pivotal MEP” in the next parliament is likely to be in the EPP group, rather than in the centrist RE (or previously Liberal) group for the first time.     Anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). These results will be particularly significant in several member states which will hold national parliament elections soon after the European Parliament election.     We also predict that the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group will gain 18 seats. Our model predicts that the ECR will lose seats in Poland, and gain most seats in Romania and Spain, in addition to Italy. We expect the ECR to pick up a lot of seats in Italy, as a result of Brothers of Italy (FdI) emerging as one of the largest delegations in the European Parliament (with 27 seats). With the expected fall of Forza Italia to only 7 seats, though, the EPP may approach Brothers of Italy to join their group. And, if Fidesz in Hungary (which we expect to win 14 seats) decides to join the ECR rather than to sit with the non-attached MEPs, the ECR could overtake RE and ID and become the third largest group.     It predicts that ID will lose many seats in Italy, with the decline of Lega, but these losses will be offset by significant gains in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Bulgaria, and Austria.     We expect the ECR and ID groups together to account for 25 per cent of MEPs, and have more seats combined than the EPP or the S&D for the first time.     The “EU-critics” on the radical right and radical left will increase dramatically to hold 37 per cent of the seats, compared to 30 per cent in the current parliament. Populist voices, particularly on the radical right, are likely to be louder after the 2024 elections than at any point since the European Parliament was first directly elected in 1979.     A populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs could emerge with a majority for the first time. This ‘sharp right turn’ will affect the foreign policy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change.         There is uncertainty regarding which political groups some parties will eventually join. There are two types of uncertain parties: (1) those that are not currently represented in the parliament and are not currently members of a European political party (which would automatically determine their group membership); and (2) those that currently have MEPs but might join a different political group in the next parliament. We have already mentioned the three largest parties in this list: Fidesz from Hungary, Brothers of Italy and the Five Star Movement from Italy. Beyond these, there are 25 other parties whose group membership remains uncertain. Together, we predict that these 28 parties will win 122 seats in June 2024, meaning that the eventual sizes of the groups might be somewhat different from those in our forecast. Most of the uncertain parties are those that will sit to the right of the EPP, in either the ECR, ID, or as non-attached MEPs. The likely “sharp right turn” is unlikely to change as a result of changes to these parties’ current or expected group membership. The sizes of the potential coalitions between the political groups in the chamber will benefit the right.         Different coalitions have tended to dominate in different policy areas in 2019-2024:   A centrist grand coalition (EPP + S&D, usually also with RE) typically won on budgets, budgetary control, culture and education, economic and monetary affairs, foreign affairs, internal market and consumer protection, legal affairs, and transport and tourism;   A centre + left coalition (S&D + RE+ G/EFA + the Left) usually won on civil liberties and justice and home affairs, development, employment and social affairs, environment, and women’s rights and gender equality;   A centre + right coalition (EPP + RE + ECR, and sometimes ID) usually won on agriculture and rural development, fisheries, industry and research, and international trade.   These coalitions and winning patterns are likely to continue, at least at the start of the next parliamentary term.          EU support for Ukraine - the majority in the next European Parliament is likely to back a continuation of the type of financial, logistical, and military aid that Western states have been approving for Kyiv since February 2022. However, there will be a larger number of MEPs (particularly in ID and among the non-attached MEPs) who are more sympathetic towards Russia. Support for Ukraine in the rest of the parliament might also soften as national parties start to respond to the changing opinions of their voters, expressed by their votes in the European Parliament elections.         Our analysis suggests two significant shifts in coalition patterns.     Firstly, the smaller size of the centrist grand coalition, even with RE support, is likely to mean that it will no longer be as dominant on some policy issues. In particular on economic and monetary affairs and internal market and consumer protection – where the grand coalition has won votes in the current parliament by smaller margins – we could see a significant shift to the right, as the EPP looks to partners to its right rather than to the S&D. Given the Euroscepticism of the ECR and ID, and some national parties in the EPP, we could therefore see majorities in the next parliament in support of more economic, fiscal, and regulatory freedom for member states. This bloc would be likely to vote against proposals from the commission to enforce common rules and instead side with the growing group of national governments – such as those in Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden – which are pushing for less interference from Brussels in national economic, fiscal, and regulatory policies.     Secondly, the smaller number of MEPs on the left relative to the right means that in several policy areas in which the left has tended to win by small margins, a right-wing majority will now be more likely to win than a left-wing majority. This is likely to be particularly true in two areas – civil liberties and justice and home affairs, and environment – where narrow centre-left majorities may be replaced by a new populist right winning coalition (of EPP + ECR + ID + most non-attached MEPs). On civil liberties and justice and home affairs, this could have major implications for EU migration and asylum policies, where there is likely to be a majority in the European Parliament that supports very restrictive immigration policies and will seek to push the commission to reform the EU’s asylum policy framework to allow more discretion for member states and to limit any sharing of refugee allocations.     This new winning majority on civil liberties and justice and home affairs could also have implications for the EU’s efforts to enforce the rule of law. In the current parliament there has been a narrow majority in favour of the EU imposing sanctions (such as withholding budget payments) on member states in which the rule of law is backsliding – in particular in Hungary and Poland. But after June 2024 it is likely to be harder for the centrist and centre-left MEPs (in RE, S&D, G/EFA, the Left, and parts of EPP) to hold the line against the 'continued erosion of democracy, rule of law, and civil liberties' in Hungary and any other member state that might head in that direction.     The biggest policy implications of the 2024 European Parliament elections are likely to concern environmental policy. In the current parliament, a centre-left coalition (of S&D, RE, G/EFA, and the Left) has tended to win on environmental policy issues, but many of these votes have been won by very small margins. The significant shift to the right in the new parliament will mean that an ‘anti-climate policy action’ coalition is likely to dominate. This would significantly undermine the EU’s Green Deal framework and the adoption and enforcement of common policies to meet the EU’s net zero targets. Perhaps the best illustration of this is what would have happened if the key vote on the EU’s nature restoration law was held after the 2024 elections. The law forces member states to restore at least 20 per cent of the EU’s land and seas by 2030, with binding targets to restore at least 30 per cent of degraded habitats by 2030, rising to 60 per cent by 2040 and 90 per cent by 2050. The key vote was on 12 July 2023, on a motion by the EPP to reject the commission’s proposal outright. The proposal to reject failed by only 12 votes (312 in favour, 324 against), and the parliament then went on to accept the commission’s proposal, with a series of votes against amendments from the groups on the right to water down the proposed actions. The dramatic increase in the number of MEPs to the right of the EPP is likely to seriously limit the EU’s actions to tackle the climate crisis.         The European Parliament elections will not only have implications for politics and policy at the EU level, they will also have an impact on domestic politics in many countries. The European Parliament elections are essentially 27 national elections, and the national debates that take place in the run-up to the June 2024 elections will affect the positions that the heads of state or government feel able to take in the months and years that follow the elections. If political parties campaign on a platform to block certain EU decisions, or the way the citizens in a country have voted in the European Parliament elections is perceived to demand a tougher mandate on immigration, a “no” to further EU enlargement, or a vote against the EU’s Green Deal agenda, this will influence the national governments’ approaches to EU policymaking after the 2024 elections.     The 2024 European Parliament election in Austria will come just a few months before the next national election, which is set for autumn 2024. If the two mainstream parties – the centre-right People’s Party of Austria (ÖVP) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) – continue to haemorrhage support, the radical right Freedom Party (FPÖ) could convert the success of the anti-system change vote into a national electoral victory.     Bulgaria has experienced five parliamentary elections since the beginning of 2021. This level of instability has contributed to the rapid acceleration of the anti-system vote, which the far-right and pro-Russia party, Revival, has greatly benefitted from: it won 14 per cent in the last election in 2023, making it the third largest party. If Revival wins three seats in the European Parliament election, as we predict, it will enter the European Parliament for the first time, gaining institutional legitimacy as Bulgaria’s mainstream parties continue to lose their own legitimacy - after holding its fifth national election in two years, Bulgaria is still nowhere near forming a stable government.     In France, the latest government led by President Macron is currently hovering at a 30 per cent approval rating. It will be French voters’ first opportunity to express this disapproval electorally and the first test for the French left after the break-up of the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES). There is every chance that Le Pen’s radical right National Rally (RN) will win the election. This would set the tone for the 2027 presidential election and could establish Le Pen as the potential next French president.     In Germany, the European Parliament election is likely to see the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the second largest German party in the European Parliament, behind a re-emergent Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU). The election will also be the first test for the new anti-immigrant radical left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). The next German parliamentary elections will be held in autumn 2025. The continued polarisation of German politics will therefore be a major concern for the centrist parties, and the CDU/CSU will be under pressure to say whether they would be willing to enter a coalition with the AfD.     In Italy, the European Parliament election will be the first electoral test for the new government led by prime minister Giorgia Meloni, as well as the new leaders of Forza Italia (led by deputy prime minister Tajani) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) led by Schlein. A decisive victory for Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, at the expense of its two coalition partners (Forza Italia and the League), would establish Brothers of Italy as the dominant party on the right in Italy. With voters on the left split between PD, the Five Star Movement, and the centrist parties, it remains to be seen whether these elections can establish a path forward for the left in Italy.     In the Netherlands, it is far from certain whether a government will be in place by the time of the European Parliament election or whether the country will be heading towards another national election. Wilders’s (PVV) is set to emerge as the largest Dutch party in the European Parliament, while Omzigt’s New Social Contract (NSC) will win MEPs for the first time. A decisive victory for these two parties could encourage them to form a coalition together. The combined Green-Left (PvdA-Groen Links) list may raise questions about the viability of this alliance going forward.     In Poland, the European Parliament election will be an opportunity to see whether Polish voters have sustainably turned away from the populist right Law and Justice party (PiS). We expect PiS to top the poll in Poland in June 2024 with 31 per cent of the votes and the centrist European Coalition (KE) alliance to come second with 24 per cent of the votes, closing the gap between it and PiS even further. The new centrist Third Way (TD) should win MEPs for the first time, further consolidating its position as a key ally of KE in a post-PiS Poland. The radical right is expected taking votes from PiS.     In Spain, the European Parliament election will be a referendum on prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) government and the deal Sánchez made with the Catalan nationalists to win the premiership after the July 2023 national election. We expect a significant backlash against Sánchez and his deal, with the centre-right People’s Party (PP) emerging as the clear winner and with the radical right Vox winning 10 per cent of the votes. The new Sumar alliance of the radical left and the greens is set to lose votes.     Sweden is likely seeing a further consolidation of support for Andersson’s centre-left Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP), following its re-emergence as the largest party after the September 2022 national election. The radical right Sweden Democrats (SD) look set to come second in the poll, mainly at the expense of the centre-right Moderata, which is likely to be punished for tacitly supporting Andersson’s minority government.         While the parliament is not the most significant EU institution when it comes to foreign policy, the way in which the political groups align after the elections, and the impact that these elections have on national debates in member states, will have significant implications for the European Commission’s and Council’s ability to make foreign policy choices, most notably in implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal. The implications of this vote are far reaching for the geopolitical direction of the European Council and European Commission from 2024 onwards. The next European Parliament can be expected to block legislation necessary to implement the politically difficult next phase of the Green Deal – impacting the EU’s climate sovereignty – and push for a harder line on key issues for other areas of EU sovereignty including migration, enlargement, and support for Ukraine.          National governments will feel constrained by the way these elections shape domestic debates, affecting the positions they can take in the European Council. This is likely to bolster the growing axis of governments around the European Council table that are attempting to limit the EU’s influence from within – those of Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Sweden, and likely a PVV-led government in the Netherlands.         These findings should also be set against the expectation that whether or not Trump wins the US presidential election in autumn 2024 – and the polls currently suggest there is a real possibility he will. Europe will have a less globally engaged United States to rely on. This may increase the inclination of anti-establishment and Eurosceptic parties to reject strategic interdependence and a broad range of international partnerships in defence of European interests and values, instead seeking to pursue a more cautious approach to foreign policy decisions.

Note:
Forecast by political group and member state:

Hungary:

Total: 21 (MPPs):    EPP: 0;    S&D: 4;    ID: 0;    RE: 1;    ECR: 0;    G/EFA: 0;    Left: 0;    NI: 16".

Forecast vote share by member state, 2024:

Party     Forecast vote share;     Forecast MEPs;     Difference Expected;     EP group
Fidesz       43.9%                                   14                                    1                     NI
DK            13.1%                                     4                                    0                  S&D
MHM           6.2%                                     2                                    2                     NI
MM             5.8%                                     1                                  −1                     RE
MKKP          5.0%                                     0                                    0                     0
MSZP          4.6%                                     0                                  −1                     0
LMP            3.8%                                     0                                    0                      0
Jobbik         3.5%                                     0                                  −1                     0
PM              2.3%                                     0                                    0                     0

(Parties:    Fidesz-Magyar Polgári Szövetség;    Demokratikus Koalició;    Mi Hazánk Mozgalom;    Momentum Mozgalom;    Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt;    Magyar Szocialista Párt;    Lehet Más a Politika;    Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom;    Párbeszéd - A Zöldek Pártja).

(Source: ecfr *)
* European Council on Foreign Relations (Berlin, Germany)

..

.

Europe

Germany
12/31/2023  Krisenmodus, the state of German foreign policy. "In 2024, Germany's foreign policy will work in crisis mode'. 'Berlin must find ways to deal with two wars, an increasingly aggressive China, and a world order in transition'. The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas - which is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the European Union, the US and other governments - is only the latest major crisis, albeit currently the most dramatic. The conflict could spread, with potentially devastating consequences. Germany is involved in discussions about how the Middle East should look after the end of the war. Like the EU and the US government, Germany remains committed to the idea of a two-state solution - a Palestinian state alongside the Israeli state. In an exclusive interview with DW in November, Foreign Minister Baerbock lamented the violence carried out by Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank against Palestinians. "The Israeli prime minister must condemn this settler violence, it must be prosecuted, and this is also in the interests of Israel's security,' she said. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has challenged German and European diplomats. Germany, along with other Western countries, has provided extensive military assistance, but still, almost two years later, Ukraine has made little progress in recapturing Russian-occupied territories. The willingness to provide military assistance to Ukraine is now eroding even in the United States, by far its most important ally. Kiesewetter, a Bundestag member with the center-right opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), believes that all talk of negotiating a solution is dangerous and that a military victory in Ukraine is possible. 'It is the West that has hampered the liberation campaign because too little has been supplied too late," he recently wrote. The strategy, he said, must be: 'Supply everything [in arms] as quickly as possible.' As the West grows weary of war, politicians are now under pressure to think about ending the war at the negotiating table. Political scientist Varwick from the University of Halle believes this is inevitable anyway. "After a cease-fire, I think come difficult diplomatic negotiations over territorial changes in Ukraine, and over Ukraine's neutrality - all of which should be on the table," Varwick told. Much has changed in relations between China and Germany since Angela Merkel was chancellor from 2005 to 2021. In contrast to Merkel's 'delicate handling of the Chinese government' in the interest of trade policy, the strategy paper issued this summer by the current governing center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) called China a "partner, competitor and systemic rival" for Germany and the EU. But recently, Berlin has increasingly emphasized the rivalry. The German government is concerned about China's saber-rattling toward Taiwan, which China regards as a secessionist province, and about China's close relationship with Russia despite its war on Ukraine. Yet China has been Germany's most important trading partner since 2016. This is why the German government's China strategy does not focus on disentangling the two economies, as this would cause too much damage in Germany, but rather on efforts to reduce its one-sided economic dependencies on China. The limits of a foreign policy based on values, as advocated by Baerbock, are particularly evident in the case of China. In April, the then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin responded to Baerbock's plea for greater respect of human rights: 'What China needs least of all is a schoolmaster from the West." 'In a world in which the liberal West is coming under pressure, enemies are easy to make if you constantly insist on values,' wrote journalist Freidel on November 30. "That doesn't mean that values are dispensable. It just means that they shouldn't be constantly bandied about." Freidel said Germany should 'rather formulate interests." Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations, takes a more positive view of the German government's foreign policy. "If we completely ignore values, as we did with Russia, then this will have catastrophic consequences, and we are seeing this in Ukraine,' he told. The war in Ukraine has taught the German government a lesson: In the global search for allies willing to support sanctions against Russia, numerous developing and emerging countries have turned their backs - intent on continuing trade with Moscow. Countries that are normally aligned with the West, such as India and Brazil, "are finding new leeway in this changing world order by exercising their freedom not to take sides," said Hoff. Germany, Europe's strongest and the world's fourth-largest economy, is expected to play a more active role on the global stage, not least by the US and the EU. This does not seem to be very popular with most Germans, according to a survey conducted by the nonprofit Körber Foundation in September. Germany should be more restrained when it comes to international crises, 54% of respondents said. Only 38% wanted to see greater involvement - the lowest figure since the surveys began in 2017, when it stood at 52%. A whopping 71% of respondents were against Germany taking a leading military role in Europe. Germans want one thing above all else: Respite from the turbulence of world politics. (dw)

European Council
December 31, 2023  Bulgaria, Romania, both EU members since 2007, get official green light for partial entry into Schengen area, which comprises 27 countries and grants free movement to more than 400 million EU citizens. EU member countries reached agreement yesterday on removing air and maritime internal border controls with Bulgaria and Romania as of March 31. “A further decision should be taken by the Council to establish a date for the lifting of checks at internal land borders,” the Council of the EU said. Austria had opposed the inclusion of Romania and Bulgaria in the Schengen zone due to concerns over illegal immigration. But in mid-December, Austrian Interior Minister Karner announced a softening of Vienna’s stance, offering passport-free travel by plane from those countries in exchange for tighter border security measures. The Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU hammered out the final agreement late yesterday, just before the government in Madrid passes the baton to Belgium. “A decision by the Council on this matter is expected to be taken within a reasonable time frame,” the European Commission said in a statement. (Source: politico)

Russia
31-Dec-2023  What will happen in Ukraine in 2024? Israel's war with Hamas has captured the attention of the world's media over the past two months, but in Ukraine a near two-year long conflict is continuing with no end in sight. Russia labeled it a special operation aimed at ridding Nazism from Ukraine and reclaiming land it lost following the disbandment of the Soviet Union. It was expected that Ukraine would be quickly overwhelmed by the firepower of Russia's military, but with help from Western countries, Ukraine has showed resolve. Ukraine has received huge financial backing from the West, particularly from the United States. After weathering Russia's early attack, support from Western allies in the form of military and financial aid saw Ukraine fight back. The U.S. has pledged €43.9 billion ($55.9 billion) to Ukraine between February 2022 and October 2023. Ukraine had also received €5.6 billion ($7.1 billion) from the EU over the same time period. But that level of support is putting pressure on the purse strings of Western countries. There are fears if aid dries up, Ukraine will fold to the military might of Russia. Now, with a third year of fighting fast approaching, Russia and Ukraine's conflict has ground to a standstill, but looks set to continue well into 2024 and beyond. As it stands, Russia currently occupies roughly 15 percent of Ukraine's territory, having formally annexed four regions: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk in September 2022. Ukraine's counter-offensive has stalled and Russia has struggled to make any further advancements. For Ukraine's soldiers on the frontline, there is little sign of an end to the fighting, with the conflict set to continue for many months and even years to come. "Russia wins by not losing," Shea, a former NATO official and now professor of strategy and security at the University of Exeter, said. He believes Russia is committed to a lengthy battle that could go on for years. "Putin is clearly in for the long haul. He made that clear during his press conference. He said that the initial Russian war aims, which is to demilitarize the Nazi for Ukraine have not changed. So that suggests that Putin is not prepared at this stage, at least, to go for a more limited victory in terms of simply hanging onto the 17 percent of Ukraine that Russia has occupied and annexed. He wants the whole lot, including the downfall of the Zelenskyy regime." "The problem, of course, is that we now have this potential Ukraine fatigue from both America and the EU simultaneously," says Shea. "Hungary has blocked €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) in EU aid for Ukraine. America could say, 'look the EU is doing less' and (if they reduce aid), the EU could say 'America isn't in the fight anymore, why should we care about this more than them?'" Earlier this week, the White House approved another tranche of US military aid to Ukraine worth some $250m. Zelenskyy has ruled out talks with Moscow until it withdraws from territories it has occupied since February 2022. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov restated Russia's complaint that Ukraine was unwilling to hold peace talks to end the 22-month-old conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow calls a 'special military operation'. "His representatives think only in categories of war and resort to totally aggressive rhetoric. There is no consideration of holding peace talks... Draw your own conclusions," Lavrov told Tass. Finances could play a key role in Russia's military ambitions in Ukraine in 2024, too, Shea explained. "Russia, believe it or not, is now spending as a proportion of its GDP more on defense than the Soviet Union did. Soviet Union 14 percent, Russia now 20 percent." All of this defense spending over the long run is going to cause a lot of inflation, reduce Russian living standards, he added. (Source: cgtn *)
* China Global Television Network

Sunday, 31 Dec 2023  Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has intensified over the past week amid speculations that the war has reached a stalemate. Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out a “terrorist attack” yesterday on civilians in the city of Belgorod, including using controversial cluster munitions in strikes that killed at least 22 people and wounded dozens more. In an emergency meeting at the UN Security Council, demanded by Russia, envoy Nebenzya claimed Kyiv targeted a sports centre, an ice rink and a university. “[It was a] deliberate, indiscriminate attack against a civilian target,” Nebenzya said yesterday. Moscow said the attack would “not go unpunished”. At least 40 people were killed on Friday in one of Russia’s biggest attacks on Ukraine since its invasion nearly two years ago. Nebenzya defended the attacks saying Moscow had targeted only military infrastructure and that Ukraine’s air defence systems were responsible for civilian casualties. While support for Ukraine remains robust among Western countries, further military assistance has met growing pushback by conservative political forces in the US and Europe. The United States, Ukraine’s biggest single-country donor, has sent more than $40bn in aid since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. But right-wing congressional Republicans have expressed increasing scepticism towards approving more funds for Ukraine. Congress could continue to hold up the money. The impasse over US aid to Kyiv is mirrored in the European Union, where Hungary is blocking a 50 billion euro ($55bn) aid package. The bloc is due to revisit the issue in January. Difficulties in securing the funds in Washington and Brussels have raised concerns in Kyiv that Western backers are experiencing “fatigue” with the drawn-out battle, as fighting on the front line becomes bogged down. Zelenskyy has noted that Kyiv’s “foreign policy will be active' with many international activities in January. In a new wave of drone and missile attacks in days, Russia says it has targeted Ukrainian military sites in the capital Kyiv and Kharkiv, in retaliation for a deadly attack a day earlier on the city of Belgorod. Today the Russian defence ministry said it had struck “decision-making centres and military installations” in the northeastern city of Kharkhiv, after Kyiv said that residential buildings, a hotel and cafes had been hit. Russia launched ‘most massive attack’ since start of Ukraine war. In the first wave of overnight attacks, at least six missiles hit Kharkiv, Ukraine’s National Police said today. Most drones were aimed at Ukraine’s first line of defence as well as at civilian, military and infrastructure in the Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions, the Ukrainian Air Force said, adding that it destroyed 21 out of 49 attack drones. Closer to midnight, as part of a wider bombardment of Ukraine that also targeted Kyiv, several waves of Russian drones hit residential buildings in Kharkiv’s centre, spouting fires, Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv said. In his New Year’s Eve address today, President Putin said Russia would “never back down' praising his country’s military personnel. “We have repeatedly proved that we are able to solve the most difficult tasks and will never retreat, because there is no force that can separate us,” Putin said. “To all those who are on duty, on the front line of the fight for truth and justice," Putin said, “you are our heroes. Our hearts are with you. We are proud of you, we admire your courage.” (Source: aljazeera)
Photo: A view shows the Kharkiv Palace Hotel heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike.

2023. dec. 31.  Russia pounded Kharkiv in the hours leading into New Year's Eve, hitting residential buildings, hotels and medical facilities, Ukrainian officials said. Russia said the attacks were retaliation for Ukraine’s 'indiscriminate" attack on Belgorod. Video. (Source: reuters): http://tinyurl.com/5btckbtk
Note: 323 733 views between 31 December 2023 - 7 January 2024

Ukraine
Sunday, December 31, 2023  On Friday, Russia launched its biggest air assault since February 2022. Ukrainian officials said Russia killed at least 41 civilians, wounded at least 160, and left an unknown number buried in the rubble across Ukraine in a barrage that included 158 missile and drone attacks. The United Nations Security Council met Friday at the request of Ukraine and three dozen other U.N. member states. Security Council members condemned Russia's barrage. The Ukrainian news outlet RBC-Ukraine quoted unnamed sources as saying Ukrainian forces hit military targets in Belgorod in retaliation to the Friday's massive Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Russia's Defense Ministry said at least 21 people, including three children, were killed and at least 110 injured in yesterday's Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod. Russia requested a meeting yesterday of the U.N. Security Council on what it called Ukraine's indiscriminate attacks on Belgorod and alleged Ukraine had used cluster bombs. Yesterday, Russia said it downed 32 Ukrainian drones. In Moscow, officials said air defenses shot down drones over Moscow, Bryansk, Oryol and Kursk regions. The Defense Ministry reported a number of casualties, including a child. Russian missile and drone strikes continued yesterday. Ukraine reported shooting down Iranian-made Shahed drones in the Kherson, Khmelnytskyi and Mykolaiv regions. Ukraine was also fighting back a Russian drone attack yesterday in Kyiv. Missiles hit in Kharkiv and in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv regions, killing three people. Two Russian missiles hit central Kharkiv yesterday, injuring at least 21 people, Ukrainian officials said, in the latest in a recent series of back-and-forth air assaults. Russia's attacks on Kharkiv came after Ukrainian airstrikes earlier yesterday hit the Russian city of Belgorod, which sits just over the border with Ukraine. The Kharkiv Palace hotel was damaged by a Russian missile attack in Kharkiv. Looking ahead to 2024, President Zelenskyy said in his daily address yesterday that Ukraine is "preparing to produce more weapons next year.' The British Defense Ministry said yesterday in its daily intelligence update on Ukraine that the daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine, dead and wounded, has risen by almost 300% per day, compared with last year. The increase in the number of casualties was reported to the British ministry by Ukraine. On the last day of the year, Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 21 of 49 Russian drones. (Source: voanews *)
* Voice of America

Asia

China
31/12/2023  China’s 'reunification' with Taiwan is inevitable, President Xi said in his New Year’s address today, striking a stronger tone than he did last year with less than two weeks to go before the Chinese-claimed island elects a new leader. “The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability,' Xi said, though the official English translation of his remarks published by the Xinhua news agency used a more simple phrase: “China will surely be reunified'. China has never renounced the use of force to bring it under Chinese control, though Xi made no mention of military threats in his speech carried on state television. “Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,' he added. The official English translation wrote “all Chinese' rather than “compatriots'. Last year, Xi said only that people on either side of the strait are 'members of one and the same family' and that he hoped people on both sides will work together to “jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation'. The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao’s communists who founded the People’s Republic of China. The Republic of China remains Taiwan’s formal name. The Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary elections are happening at a time of fraught relations between Beijing and Taipei. China has been ramping up military pressure to assert its sovereignty claims over democratically governed Taiwan. Current Vice President Lai, the presidential candidate for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Party (DPP) leading in opinion polls by varying margins says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, as does Lai’s main opponent in the election, Hou, from Taiwan’s largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT traditionally favours close ties with China but strongly denies being pro-Beijing. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Lai had “exposed his true face as a stubborn ‘worker for Taiwan independence’ and destroyer of peace across the Taiwan Strait' saying he is a dangerous separatist. 'His words were full of confrontational thinking,' spokesperson Chen said. Hou has also denounced Lai as an independence supporter. Since 2016 - when President Tsai took office - the DPP-led government has promoted separatism and is the 'criminal mastermind' in obstructing exchanges across the strait and 'damaging the interests of Taiwan’s people', Chen said. Lai said yesterday that the Republic of China and People’s Republic of China “are not subordinate to each other”, wording he and Tsai have used previously which has also riled Beijing. Tsai and Lai have repeatedly offered talks with China, but have been rebuffed. (Source: france24)

Gaza
31 December, 2023  Following Hamas' surprise October incursion, Israel launched a full-scale attack in Gaza, displacing nearly all its 2.3 million residents and killing at least 21,672 Palestinians, according to health authorities in Gaza, with more than 56,000 injured and thousands more feared dead under the rubble. The conflict has sparked concerns it could spread across the region, potentially involving Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen that have exchanged fire with Israel and its U.S. ally, or targeted merchant shipping. Israel cited progress in destroying Hamas infrastructure, including a tunnel complex in the basement of one of the houses of the Hamas leader for Gaza, Sinwar, in Gaza City. Troops also raided the Hamas military intelligence headquarters and an Islamic Jihad command centre in Khan Younis, and destroyed targets including a weapons foundry. Hamas and Islamic Jihad issued statements saying their fighters destroyed and damaged several Israeli tanks and troop carriers in attacks across Gaza yesterday. They also said they fired mortars against Israeli forces in Khan Younis and Al-Bureij as well as in northern Gaza. Israel says 172 of its military personnel have been killed in the Gaza fighting. Hamas media reported yesterday that Maali, a senior member of the group's armed wing, was killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza. It said Maali, originally from the West Bank, was freed during a 2011 prisoner swap and expelled to Gaza. The reports did not specify when he was killed. Residents and medics said yesterday's fighting was focused in al-Bureij, Nuseirat, Maghazi and Khan Younis in central and southern Gaza. Israeli military forces pressed ahead with an offensive that the prime minister reiterated will last "for many more months.' "The war is at its height," Netanyahu told yesterday. He added the Philadelphi Corridor buffer zone that runs along Gaza's border with Egypt must be in Israeli hands. "It must be shut," Netanyahu said. "It is clear that any other arrangement would not ensure the demilitarisation that we seek." Such a move by Israel would be a de facto reversal of its 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, placing the enclave under exclusive Israeli control after years being run by Hamas. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas but its targeting and killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza is increasingly being described as a genocide. (Source: newarab *)
* English version of a London-based pan-Arab news outlet owned by a Qatari media company.

Syria
Sunday - 31 December 2023  Israel is now seeking to weaken Iranian supply lines. Military developments are now escalating in Syria. Iran is stepping up its efforts to transfer weaponry. It is sending arms through Damascus Airport, which indicates an urgent and ongoing need for supplying its proxies, as using other routes could take longer. Damascus Airport is going in and out of service. The Israelis continue to target Damascus Airport to disrupt the supply of arms, and they will continue to escalate their targeting of influential Iranian leaders, constantly seeking bigger and more important targets, as seen in the attack on Mousavi in Damascus, as well as targeting Hezbollah's arms depots. All of that tells us Israel’s escalation cannot be separated from the war in Gaza. Israel’s escalating attacks on Syrian territory are not an extension of its consistent attacks, rather, they are part of the Israelis’ preparations for a new war on Lebanon, which could either be launched during its war on Gaza or immediately afterward. The name of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps official whom Israel recently assassinated in Syria, Mousavi, is the obvious headline of the story. The Iranians say he was tasked with managing IRGC supply lines. Israel's targeting of Mousavi, who has played prominent roles in Syria, is essentially aimed at disrupting Iranian supply lines sending equipment from Tehran to Lebanon, and thus to Hezbollah, and before it, other militias in Damascus and its surroundings. It is preparing to target Hezbollah, as well as other Iranian militias, to weaken them before the war in Lebanon breaks out. The pretexts are already available to the Israelis, who demand that Hezbollah militia men stay away from the Israeli border, as stipulated by UN Resolution 1701, and claim that they will ensure this happens either through negotiations or war. 'Israel’s motives are clear and easy to understand. The longer wars last, whether they are in Gaza or if one breaks out on the Lebanese borders, the better Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s chances of remaining in power. Netanyahu was dead politically, and he was awaiting imprisonment, the final nail in the coffin. However, the repercussions of the October 7th operation carried out by Hamas and the factions allied to it have extended his political life. He is now trying to emerge from this crisis as a national hero, after having been a corrupt politician'. Thus, we see tense and contradictory statements coming out of Iran as Israel escalates. Hezbollah, especially Nasrallah, remains silent. He has not said a word because he knows what is coming and that if a war erupts, it will be different from those that preceded it. If this war is waged, it would be a war of survival for both Netanyahu and Nasrallah. Netanyahu wants to escape his inevitable fate of imprisonment, and Nasrallah is trying to preserve what remains of Iran's prestige and its influence in Syria. (Source: aawsat *)
* Asharq Al-Awsat - Arabic international newspaper headquartered in London.

Red Sea
Sunday, December 31, 2023  Attacks on shipping vessels claimed by the Houthi rebels have increased since Israel declared war on militant group Hamas on Oct. 7. Yesterday, the U.S. shot down two anti-ship ballistic missiles that were fired by Houthi rebels toward he Maersk Hangzhao container ship on the Red Sea, CENTCOM said today. The Maersk Hangzhao said they were struck by a missile earlier yesterday, according to CENTCOM. Early today morning U.S. helicopters from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier and the Gravely responded to the distress call issued by the container ship Maersk Hangzhao - the second distress call the ship issued in less than 24 hours due to "being under attack by four Iranian-backed Houthi small boats." The boats, which originated from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, fired at the Maersk Hangzhao and attempted to board the vessel after getting within 20 meters of the container ship. A contract-embarked security team on the ship returned fire, the central command said. Following the another attack on the merchant ship as tensions continue to rise in the region, the U.S. Navy helicopters were starting to give out warnings to the attackers, when the Houthi-controlled small boat crews opened fire on the helicopters with crew-served weapons and small arms. "The U.S. Navy helicopters returned fire in self-defense," CENTCOM said. The United States sunk three of the four small boats and killed the crews, CENTCOM said. The fourth boat fled the area. No U.S. forces were injured and there was no damage to U.S. equipment. "This is the 23rd illegal attack by the Houthis on international shipping since Nov. 19," CENTCOM said.
(Source: thestate *)
* The State - American daily newspaper published in Columbia, South Carolina.

North America

United States
December 31, 2023  Republicans have a great chance to retake the Senate in 2024. There are 34 Senate races in 2024. Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents occupy 23 of the seats, eight of which are rated competitive or vulnerable by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes House and Senate races. Republicans are only defending 11 seats, all of them in states won by Trump in 2020. Of those, only the Texas seat held by Sen. Cruz is rated competitive. “The Senate majority is firmly in play, and Republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the Senate,” said Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “But we’ve seen Republicans throw away opportunities before.'    In Arizona, former local TV news anchor Lake, a Republican is still contesting the results of her 2022 loss for governor.    In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Brown is defending the seat he has held since 2007. Ohio passed an Amendment for Abortion Rights on November 7, 2023. The amendment will take effect in 30 days, per Ohio law. Upon its enactment, it would prohibit limits on abortion before fetal viability. Any prohibitions on abortion after fetal viability – generally accepted as between 22-24 weeks gestation but would be determined by an individual’s doctor – would not apply should the pregnant person’s health or life be at risk. Gov. DeWine – who signed the six-week abortion ban into law – has long opposed abortion access. Secretary of State LaRose, who is also running for U.S. Senate, was among the most vocal opponents of the abortion amendment, even before it was placed on the ballot.    In West Virginia, a state that Trump won by almost 39 percentage points in 2020, when last month centrist Democratic Sen. Manchin decided not to run for re-election, Democrats’ hopes of keeping their 51-49 Senate majority took a hit. Trump has endorsed Republican Gov. Justice in West Virginia’s Republican primary. Justice is dominating polling against Republican Rep. Mooney. The winner of the GOP primary is expected to cruise to victory in the November general election. With West Virginia seen as off the table, the battle for the Senate is centered on Montana, where Democratic Sen. Tester is running for a fourth term, and Ohio.    Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points and Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2020. "Those races might not even matter. If Republicans successfully defend all their current seats and win Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, as expected, and if the party’s nominee also wins the White House, Republicans will control the Senate in 2024, thanks to the new vice president’s tiebreaking vote, without picking up any other seats". (Source: wsj)

.

.

Orbán Viktor nemzetközi sajtótájékoztatója

Budapest, 2023. XII. 21.

/video/

(Forrás: infostart):

http://tinyurl.com/yc6s8k78

Kulcsszavak:

alkotmány    Argentína    Atlanti Óceán    Bulgária    Csehország    Dubaj   Első világháború    Egyesült Államok    Európa    Európai Bizottság    Európai Bíróság    Európai Parlament    Európai Tanács    Európai Unió    Felvidék    Finland    Franciaország    Horvátország    Izrael    Kárpátalja    kommunista    Krím    Lengyelország    Magyarország    Második világháború    NATO    Németország    Parlament    Románia    Russia    Schengeni övezet    Sweden    Szerbia    Szlovákia    Szovjetunió    Turkey    Ukrajna    ünnep    Visegrádi országok    video

.4 1 17