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Russia
December 4, 2025 Kuril Islands become a Sino-Russian fortress against Japan. The sparsely populated chain of islands separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Pacific Ocean - Russia’s Pacific Fleet and Sea of Okhotsk nuclear bastion. The Kuril Islands are strategically positioned at the gateway to Russia’s Pacific Fleet basing areas. The access to the fleet headquarters in Vladivostok, is located on the western shore of the Sea of Japan. Ships that set out for patrols in the Pacific Ocean must navigate through the narrow La Perouse Strait, which lies between Hokkaido and the Russian Sakhalin Island, before passing through the Kuril Islands. These islands under Russian control since 1945, have long been a focal point of territorial dispute between Moscow and Tokyo, spanning approximately 1,300 kilometers, from Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido to the southern tip of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. The Russian Empire first established its naval presence in the Pacific on the Kamchatka Peninsula. Japan lays claim to the four southernmost islands – Iturup (Etorofu), Kunashir (Kunashiri), Shikotan and the Habomai group – referring to them as its Northern Territories. The foundation was laid in the 1855 Treaty of Shimoda, which granted Japan sovereignty over the four southernmost islands. In the decades that followed, fluctuations occurred regarding the tradeoff rights to Sakhalin, a large Russian island north of Japan. At the end of World War II., taking advantage of Japan’s defeat, Stalin ordered the seizure of the four islands by force. Japanese locals were expelled, and Russian settlers moved in. As this occurred after Japan had already surrendered to the United States, Tokyo has never recognized the annexation as legitimate. Japan and the Soviet Union have never concluded a formal peace treaty to end World War II. The San Francisco Peace Treaty, signed in 1951, stated only that Japan had relinquished the “Chishima Islands,” without explicitly mentioning the four disputed islands. The 1956 Joint Declaration normalized diplomatic relations but left the territorial dispute unresolved. Japan continues to claim that the four southernmost islands are not part of the Kurils but rather constitute the Northern Territories. It further maintains that because the Soviet Union was not a signatory to the San Francisco Treaty, the treaty cannot be used to justify Russian claims to the islands. At a meeting in Moscow in November 1998, Russian President Yeltsin and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi committed to resolving the dispute over the islands within 14 months. In a joint Moscow Declaration, they aimed to finalize a peace treaty by the end of 2000. Yeltsin was forced to resign in 1999, and the effort was abandoned. The last time a compromise seemed possible was in 2018, when President Putin met with then Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe. By 2017, they had met 20 times, with Japan indicating that it was willing to accept a step-by-step deal in which Shikotan and the Habomai group would be returned first, followed by the larger islands of Iturup and Kunashir, provided Russia recognized Japanese sovereignty over all four. Ultimately, negotiations collapsed. The Kremlin was launching a heavily funded rearmament program in 2009, and it began militarizing the disputed islands after Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea. In late 2015, Russian forces stationed on the islands were provided with a Soviet-era Tor-M2U surface-to-air missile system. In 2017, a Bastion anti-ship missile battalion was deployed to Iturup, and a Bal anti-ship missile battalion to Kunashir, followed by significant construction activity on both islands, including the erection of barracks to house an estimated 3,500 troops of the 18th Machine-Gun Artillery Division. In December 2020, air defense capabilities were enhanced with the deployment of an S-300 missile battery to Iturup. Tokyo expressed concern that the P-800 Oniks supersonic missile fired by the Bastion system could threaten much of Hokkaido, enabling the interception of ships in large parts of its coastal waters. In December 2021, additional Bastion launchers were set up on Matua, situated in the middle of the Kuril Islands. On Paramushir, which lies even further north, a new airstrip was constructed alongside extensive barracks complexes. The Putin regime is determined to transform the islands into a barrier that can both threaten Hokkaido and defend approaches to the Sea of Okhotsk. The updated Russian maritime doctrine, presented in St. Petersburg on July 31, 2022, specifically mentioned that both the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands would be protected by all means. Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has produced three major ripple effects for the Kuril Islands dispute. Ukraine has officially recognized Japan’s claim to the Northern Territories as legitimate. in October 2022. Its decree officially acknowledged the Kuril Islands as Japanese territory temporarily occupied by Russia. Considering that Ukraine has already carried out strikes ’on various targets in the Russian Far East, Russian military installations on the Kuril Islands could also come under attack’. Some observers in Japan have suggested that a considerable number of current residents on the southern islands are descendants of Ukrainians who were forcibly relocated there by the Soviets after 1945, following Stalin’s land grab. Estimates from pro-Ukrainian and Japanese sources even claim this figure could be as high as 60 percent. The second point is that Japan was compelled to follow the lead of the major Western countries in condemning Russian aggression and enacting tough sanctions. Moscow’s response to the escalation was harsh, indicating that all discussions on economic cooperation and a potential peace treaty were suspended indefinitely. President Putin chose not to attend Abe’s state funeral. The Russian Vostok-22 war games held in September, under the supervision of Russia’s Eastern Military District, took place in the waters and coastal areas around the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan. China’s participation held political significance with Russian military units, including Pacific Fleet marine infantry, heavily involved in the war in Ukraine. Finally, China’s stance regarding the rights to the islands has shifted. Historically, the official endorsement of Japanese sovereignty was established by Chairman Mao in 1964 and maintained by all Chinese leaders since then. The change was notably highlighted during the February 2022 meeting, where President Putin and Chinese President Xi solidified their relationship under a “no limits” friendship agreement. After that meeting, President Xi stated that the two sides would support each other on issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity. At a press conference in January 2024, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova responded by emphasizing that, “The Russian side acknowledges that there is only one China, that the People’s Republic of China is the only legal government representing the entire country and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. The Russian side opposes any form of Taiwan’s independence.” China is now backing Russia in its confrontation with Japan over the islands. This support from Beijing is tied to Moscow’s endorsement of China’s ambitions in Taiwan. As joint Sino-Russian naval operations become a key strategy for deterring Japan and South Korea from stepping up their support for Taiwan, Russia, with a vantage point near the northern shores of Hokkaido, gains a significant advantage. Control over the island chain not only offers Russia critical forward listening posts but also ensures safer routes for its aircraft. Beyond the fundamental issue of national sovereignty, the Kurils are also crucial for accessing valuable fishing grounds and rare-earth mineral deposits. The question of sovereignty has consistently taken precedence over any potential economic deal. The least likely scenario is that Japan finally gains legal recognition for its claim to sovereignty over the contested islands if the Russian Federation splits, leaving its Far East isolated. Japan could then step in as a protector of the Northern Territories that would otherwise be in serious trouble. Achieving international recognition of sovereignty would still be a long shot, given expected objections from other regional powers. A somewhat more probable scenario is that a collapse of the Russian Federation presents China with a difficult choice about how best to protect its own interests. Beyond securing continued access to energy and other raw materials, China might choose to strengthen its military stance against Japan by acting as a protector for Russian military installations on the Kuril Islands, including but not limited to the Northern Territories. ’The most probable scenario is that, as Russia faces increasing economic decline due to its war in Ukraine, it gradually becomes a vassal state under China’s control’. Beijing may then adopt a firmer stance on Taiwan while tacitly encouraging more assertive Russian actions on the Kuril Islands and near Hokkaido. As a result, Japan will need to reassess the robustness of its security guarantees with the U.S. (Source: Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG (GIS) - Liechtenstein)
By Hedlund, a professor of Russian Studies at Uppsala University.
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