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Europe
Belgium
May 20, 2025 Tractors return to chaotic Brussels. A major EU budget meeting in Brussels today is a beacon for Belgian farmers expressing their fury. The European Quarter can expect the area around the Schuman roundabout, Parc du Cinquantenaire and Rue de la Loi to be occupied by farmers until around midday. With similar protests planned in Dublin and Madrid, farmers are responding to a flash action call by agri mega-union Copa-Cogeca to sway policymakers as they discuss the shape of the EU’s agriculture subsidy system. The Common Agriculture Policy represents a third of the EU’s €1.2 trillion, seven-year budget. The European Commission is expected to land its proposals on both the budget and the CAP in mid-July. Agriculture Commissioner Hansen spoke directly to Copa representatives yesterday afternoon. (In an FT interview published this morning, Hansen said "the EU’s increased military spending shouldn’t come at the expense of the Common Agriculture Policy".) Budget Commissioner. Serafin is up next, his team said. He’s likely to get an earful about their gripes over technicalities of the CAP’s place within the budget. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
Germany
(20 May 2025) Germany has offered to take the lead on joint European Union projects regarding air defence, land and marine systems, Defence Minister Pistorius said ahead of a meeting of the bloc’s defense ministers today. Brussels has urged members to jointly invest in areas of heightened common interest, particularly air defense. The EU’s member states have given initial approval to a €150 billion defense fund that will distribute money to countries looking to jointly invest in security capabilities such as ammunition, drones and the protection of critical infrastructure. The fund comes in addition to new rules that ’allow member states fiscal flexibility for defense spending, which could mobilize a combined €800 billion’. Pistorius highlighted Germany’s expertise in air defence, pointing to its role in the European Sky Shield Initiative, launched after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The project, which has the support of 24 Nato members, aims to build a ground-based European air defence system which can shoot down ballistic missiles. Berlin can also offer European partners know-how with land and marine defense systems, he said. We also offer framework agreements for Leopard 2A8 tanks and for 212CD-class submarines, Pistorius added. Germany is also strengthening Nato’s eastern flank with the deployment of a battle tank brigade in Lithuania, with up to 5,000 troops in coming years. The so-called Panzerbrigade 45 will be the first German brigade-sized unit to be based abroad permanently since World War II. The EU’s defence chief, Kubilius, said yesterday that the commission will present a proposal on 17 June aimed at simplifying procedures and lifting regulatory barriers to encourage joint defence procurement and aid the transportation of defence products within the bloc. The aims include fast-tracking permits for the construction of new defense plants or expanding existing ones. The commission would also need to address environmental restrictions on defense industry expansion, Kubilius said. ’The simplification or even repeal of environmental legislation restricting the use of certain chemicals used in defense manufacturing is also being considered’. (Source: Luxembourg Times / Bloomberg - U.S.)
European Commission
(20 May 2025) Following the Foreign Affairs Council, the European Union's foreign policy chief, Kallas, 4, has ordered a review of the EU-Israel association agreement, a free trade deal between the two regions. The decision follows Israel's 11-week blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
Europe
Tuesday 20 May 2025 Trump’s negotiations with Putin mean 'Europe needs to prepare for a second cold war'. ’A European-led Nato command structure could be trimmed down and adapted. They must present a rigorous strategy for how a Europe that is free and secure from the 'long-term existential threat posed by Russia' can be achieved without US participation. ’The first step in such a strategy is to provide the means, capabilities and expertise to support Ukraine in defeating Russia’... (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)
by General Sir Shirreff, who was Nato’s deputy supreme allied commander of Europe; Dr Babst, a former Nato deputy assistant secretary general
United States
May 20 2025 08:22:18 Trump spoke to a host of Western leaders after the Putin call, including European Commission President Der Leyen and the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Finland. Pope Leo XIV has meanwhile offered to host the Russia-Ukraine talks at the Vatican, according to both Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. European nations backed Kiev's calls for Western sanctions against Russia to be toughened if it does not agree to a ceasefire quickly after the Trump-Putin call. There were signs from Trump that he is more interested in resetting relations with Moscow than imposing sanctions. He held out the carrot that Russia could do "largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic 'bloodbath' is over." On the ground, the Russian army continued its attacks. Moscow claimed its forces had captured two villages in Ukraine's Sumy and Donetsk regions. Russia also fired 112 drones on Ukraine overnight, 76 of which were repelled. (Source: Hürriyet Daily News - Turkey)
(Tuesday), May 20, 2025 6:40 AM GMT+2 Trump said after his call on Monday with President Putin that Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations for a ceasefire, but the Kremlin said the process would take time and the U.S. president indicated he was not ready to join Europe with fresh sanctions to pressure Moscow. In a social media post, Trump said he relayed the plan to Zelenskiy as well as the leaders of the European Union, France, Italy, Germany and Finland in a group call following his session with the Russian leader. "Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War," Trump said, adding later at the White House that he thought "some progress is being made." Putin thanked Trump for supporting the resumption of direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv after the two sides met in Turkey last week for their first face-to-face negotiations since March 2022. After the Monday call he said only that efforts were "generally on the right track". "We have agreed with the president of the United States that Russia will propose and is ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum on a possible future peace accord," Putin told near the Black Sea resort of Sochi. European leaders decided to increase pressure on Russia through sanctions after Trump briefed them on his call with Putin, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said late on Monday. European participants were 'shocked" that Trump did not want to push Putin with sanctions. Asked why he had not imposed fresh sanctions to push Moscow into a peace deal as he had threatened, Trump told reporters: "Well because I think there's a chance of getting something done, and if you do that, you can also make it much worse. But there could be a time where that's going to happen." If Trump were to impose new sanctions, it would be a milestone moment given that he has appeared sympathetic towards Russia and torn up the pro-Ukraine policies of his predecessor, Biden. Trump said there were 'some big egos involved.' Without progress, "I'm just going to back away," he said. "This is not my war.’ Kremlin aide Ushakov said Trump and Putin did not discuss a timeline for a ceasefire but did discuss trading nine Russians for nine Americans in a prisoner swap. "There are no deadlines and there cannot be any. It is clear that everyone wants to do this as quickly as possible, but, of course, the devil is in the details,' Kremlin spokesperson Peskov was saying. Trump said Pope Leo had expressed interest in hosting the negotiations at the Vatican. Peskov said Moscow welcomed the Vatican's proposal, but no decision had been made on a place for possible future contacts, he added. Putin, whose forces control a fifth of Ukraine and are advancing, has stood firm on his conditions for ending the war, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four regions Russia claims. He said the memorandum Russia and Ukraine would work on about a future peace accord would define a number of positions, such as, for example, the principles of settlement, the timing of a possible peace agreement. "The main thing for us is to eliminate the root causes of this crisis," Putin said. "We just need to determine the most effective ways to move towards peace." (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
Global
May 20, 2025 For places that are already functionally independent, a transactional global order might open new diplomatic venues or economic channels that bring them closer to official recognition - provided, of course, that they can offer strategic value like basing rights or resource access. For regions which lack de facto independence, success will now hinge even less on legal or moral claims. In this newly contingent and chaotic world, separatist-related violence will also become more frequent. In part, that will simply be the product of renewed separatist attempts. But breakaway regions could also launch more violent attacks, encouraged by their newfound patrons and the diminished consequences of breaking international law. Incumbents, likewise, will feel more empowered to use violence to quash independence movements. The global institutions that traditionally restrain both secessionist overreach and heavy-handed repression are losing their power to constrain either. For independence movements, the new rules of secession mean a more volatile and uncertain future. If success depends on timing, charisma, and strategic utility, some breakaway regions may have a shortcut to recognition. Others might suffer. All of them, however, will have to navigate a landscape where sovereignty is not earned but cynically auctioned off. (Source: Foreign Affairs - U.S.)
by Griffiths, Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University and the author of The Disunited States: Threats of Secession in Red and Blue America and Why They Won’t Work; Gunitsky, the George Ignatieff Chair of Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Toronto.
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