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China
February, (17) 2025 In December, Chinese state media announced that the government had approved a massive hydropower project in the lower reaches of the world’s highest river, “Yarlung Tsangpo” - the Tibetan name for the river also known as the Brahmaputra in India - at the remote “Great Bend” of the river. China’s push for mega dams is showcasing the country’s engineering capabilities and renewable energy ambitions. The continued protests in Tibet against China’s over-damming of rivers that originate in the Tibetan glaciers, as well as protests from downstream countries like India and Bangladesh, have put the spotlight on China’s true aims. The proposed Medog Hydropower Station in Tibet represents a monumental leap in China’s ambition to harness water resources. The project is expected to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. It is projected to cost upwards of $137 billion, which underscores China’s determination to assert itself as a leader in renewable energy infrastructure, to reduce China’s dependence on coal-fired thermal power plants. The dam is situated in the Indo-Tsangpo Suture Zone, a seismically active region of the Himalayas where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates converge. The project’s construction runs the risk of exacerbating geological instability, triggering landslides or earthquakes with potentially catastrophic consequences for local communities and downstream ecosystems. The Medog project, located in one of the rainiest parts of mainland, amplifies risks due to its reliance on unpredictable hydrological and geological conditions. The Yarlung Zangbo River, the lifeblood of many ecosystems in South Asia, could face unintended consequences of large-scale sediment disruption, reduced agricultural productivity, degradation, affecting not just local environments but also neighboring countries dependent on its waters. The loss of livelihoods, cultural heritage, and social cohesion of Medog County, with a population of around 14,000 can marginalize affected communities, creating long-term challenges. The Tibetan Plateau is warming at a rate nearly two times the global average, melting glaciers rapidly, destabilizing seasonal river flows, and increasing sedimentation risks in dam reservoirs. Water scarcity driven by glacial retreat could heighten cross-border tensions over resource access, particularly between India and China. China is challenging the “trans-Himalayan balance of power” via its infrastructure projects as well as financial and political clout in South Asia, primarily Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. In response to China’s infrastructure (damming) activities in the vicinity of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, India submitted its concerns to Beijing, to ensure that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas.” China claims that the latest project will allow it to achieve its stated objectives of reaching a carbon emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. China - in the same month as the announcement of the Medog Dam - created two new counties, one of which is contested by India since it falls within India’s Union Territory of Ladakh. The 2020 Galwan clash and China’s ongoing strategy of claiming territories in the Himalayas (e.g., the new standard map in 2023 and the China-Nepal boundary row in Humla in 2020) have almost permanently heightened tensions along China’s borders. Water security is increasingly intertwined with broader geopolitical rivalries. The Medog Dam grants China significant upstream control over the Brahmaputra, raising fears of strategic weaponization of water during conflicts, to influence downstream water availability, particularly during the dry season, potentially crippling agriculture and hydroelectric output in India and Bangladesh. The good news is that the recently concluded special representatives meeting has provided momentum for further strategic dialogue between India and China, including the sharing of data on transboundary rivers. China’s evolving Medog Dam “hydro-hegemony,” - control over shared water resources - is reminiscent of China’s activities along the Mekong River, where damming has curtailed flow to downstream nations, amplifying droughts and increasing dependency on Beijing for water management solutions. The failure of past deals to share adequate water data exacerbate existing challenges. China’s hydro-hegemony requires targeted strategies that address both geopolitical tensions and environmental concerns. Steps rooted in collaboration and pragmatism offer a way forward. The absence of robust transboundary water-sharing agreements exacerbates mistrust among nations. A formal transboundary water-sharing framework remains essential. Joint hydrological monitoring and sediment data-sharing could build trust. A participatory approach to infrastructure planning is vital, including local and indigenous voices in development decisions. The hope remains that the stakeholder countries will place ecological and regional stability above their domestic agendas. (Source: Institute for Security & Devekopment Policy – Sweden)
by Panda, the Head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) in Sweden, a Professor at the University of Warsaw;
Sarkar, an Associated Research Fellow at the ISDP in Sweden, a SIS Dean’s Awardee at the School of International Studies (SIS), American University, Washington, DC.
Gaza
17 Feb 2025 Drone footage shows destruction of north Gaza after 500 days of war. /Video/ (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)
February 17, 2025 Middle East: Without a political solution, reconstruction will do little over the long term - Gaza, Syria, and the region’s next crisis (Source: Foreign Affairs - U.S.)
by Yahya
Kazakhstan
17 February 2025 Kazakhstan and Hungary are expanding the horizons - very good political, economic and cultural cooperation. Central Asia in the focus of the Hungarian companies to invest. (Source: Kazinform - International News Agency, based in Astana, Kazakhstan)
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