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Europe
Germany
04 Feb 2025 The US is the largest trading partner of Germany outside of Europe, and Germany has a trade surplus of €67 billion. Germany must prepare for a trade war with Trump and learn from Canada’s determined response. Simply fantasizing about a free trade agreement with the US, as CDU leader Merz does, will be far from sufficient as a reaction, it is currently pure wishful thinking. As the cases of Canada and Mexico show, even a free trade agreement does not protect against Trump’s overreach. The economic strain of a tariff war on Germany and all other EU economies will be enormous. This highlights the vulnerability of Germany’s export-driven economy, which suffers from weak domestic demand. Germany and Europe should muster a robust response inspired by Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau has announced counter-tariffs of 25% on over $100 billion worth of US goods. Additionally, he has hinted at restrictions on the export of critical raw materials and oil essential for US production - ways that increase inflation and negatively impact pro-Trump states. After all, Trump has promised low inflation and a booming economy. He may be vulnerable to increasing inflation. Trump agreed to a 30 day freeze on the tariffs after Mexican president Sheinbaum and Trudeau both vowed to implement counter-tariffs. The EU Commission has already prepared a list of goods for counter-tariffs that would hit the US economy, particularly in Trump-friendly states. (Source: Global Public Policy Institute - based in Berlin and Geneva)
by Brenner
Sweden
February 4, 2025 About 10 people, including the gunman, are dead in a shooting at an adult education center called Campus Risbergska on the outskirts of the city of Orebro, located about 200 kilometers west of Stockholm. (Source: NPR / The Associated Press = U.S.)
European Union
2/4/2025 'Populist' parties across the EU have gained significantly in popularity over the last decade, with the rise in prominence of Germany's AfD party and France's National Rally - both of which, after undeniable electoral successes, now wield considerable influence over the respective policy directions of their national governments. Euroskepticism and anti-immigration sentiment was largely fueled by public dissatisfaction with the EU's response to undocumented migration to the continent. Forthcoming elections in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic could see 'populist anti-EU' parties gain more ground this year, but 'anti-EU' governments will remain well short of the blocking minority needed in the European Council to seriously upset EU decision-making. "Where they are in government, they have tended to shift toward the political center, with the notable exception of Hungary. Much of the 'far right's' prospects will therefore depend on whether governments can find more effective ways to deal with the slow-burning migration crisis that is the strongest driver of populist support in the EU, analysts said. So-called strongman leaders of Europe - most of whom are allied with the likes of U.S. President Trump and Russia's Putin and often rejecting directives from the European Union - look increasingly weak, analysts say. The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia are often put in the same genre of nationalist, ’right-wing’ and strongman leadership. Forthcoming elections mean anti-EU populist leaders could face their biggest challenge yet. Trump's inauguration was expected to give a shot in the arm to nationalist-populist leaders and parties such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán, Slovakia's Robert Fico, Germany's right-wing AfD party and Le Pen and her National Rally party in France. But domestic pressures and economic challenges weigh on their popularity and power. European Union members Hungary and Slovakia have pushed back against the bloc's initiatives reducing imports of Russian gas and oil. The nations have instead opted to maintain supplies 'amid fears of mounting energy costs at home'. Despite the opposition's withdrawal of a no-confidence motion earlier in January, last week Prime Minister Robert Fico saw his governing coalition lose its majority in parliament after four MPs withdrew their support. Fico faced some of the largest public protests since 1989 in opposition to his government's increasingly pro-Russian foreign policy. More demonstrations are planned this week. In the meantime, the latest opinion polls show that opposition Progressive Slovakia has overtaken SMER-SSD (Fico's 'left-wing populist' party). 'In Hungary, Fico's ally Orbán is under increasing domestic pressure this year, with the rapid increase in popularity of opposition leader Magyar and his Tisza Party. Various opinion polls since November have showed Tisza pulling ahead of Orbán's Fidesz party, with 35%-45% support among decided voters - about four to six percentage points ahead of Fidesz. If that trend continues, anti-EU populist Orbán could lose the 2026 election’. Orbán and Fidesz's media are emphasizing his international and diplomatic importance through his contacts with Trump, Russian President Putin, and Chinese President Xi, as well as his peace efforts in the Ukraine war and the great diplomatic achievements of Hungary's EU presidency. But Orbán is facing his most difficult year since first coming to power in 2010. This will further undermine his ability 'to hijack' - let alone drive - the EU's agenda as the bloc's preeminent populist leader. (Source: MSN / CNBC – Headquarters Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey = U.S.)
South Caucasus
February 4, 2025 The three countries of the South Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - hold wildly different expectations and have dramatically divergent strategies to deal with the incoming Trump Administration. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)
By Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC) in Yerevan, Armenia.
Ukraine
04/02/2025 A Russian ballistic missile killed five and injured more than 50 in the town of Izium in Kharkiv region. The missile also partially destroyed the city council building. (Source: France24 / Reuters - United Kingdom)
(4 February 2025) Russian forces are closing in the industrial city of Pokrovsk – they are now less than 2km away. Very few residents – mostly elderly – remain, as they wait for Pokrovsk to fall. There are around 7,000 people still there. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
Tuesday 04 February 2025 Mapped. US president Trump has announced he wants Ukraine to pay for financial and military support by affording Washington access to the country’s vast but untapped rare earth minerals. He said yesterday he wants “equalisation” from Ukraine for the US’ “close to $300 billion” in support. Ukrainian mineral deposits are worth more than £12 trillion, including lithium and titanium, much of which is untapped. The Crimean peninsula also holds roughly £165 billion worth of minerals. More than 50 per cent of critical rare earth mineral resources are in regions annexed by Putin and partially occupied by his forces. The region of Dnipropetrovsk, which borders the largely occupied regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, and sits in the face of an advancing Russian army, contains an additional £2.8 trillion in mineral resources. In 2021 President Zelensky offered outside investors tax breaks and investment rights to help mine these minerals. He then placed the mining of these minerals into his victory plan, drawn up last year. The minerals are vital for electric vehicles, other clean energy efforts, as well as defence production. Foreign Policy found that Ukraine held “commercially relevant deposits of 117 of the 120 most-used industrial minerals across more than 8,700 surveyed deposits”. Included in that is half a million tonnes of lithium, none of which has been tapped. This makes Ukraine the largest lithium resource in Europe. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)
Asia
China
2025.02.04 China imposed counter tariffs against multiple U.S. products today, while also launching an investigation into Google on suspicion of violating antitrust laws, as U.S. tariffs on China came into effect. China’s finance ministry said it was imposing additional tariffs of 15% on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% higher duties on American crude oil, farm equipment and certain cars, from Feb. 10. In a separate statement, the Chinese commerce ministry and customs officials announced export controls on a range of items related to certain critical minerals, including tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium. The foreign ministry added fentanyl was “a U.S. problem,” saying that at the request of the United States, China was the first country in the world to officially regulate all fentanyl-related substances in 2019. (Source: Radio Free Asia - Headquarters Washington, D.C.)
North America
United States
Feb. 4, 2025 “The first flights from the United States to Guantanamo Bay with illegal migrants are under way,” White House press secretary Leavitt said. The administration has said it would expand operations there to hold up to 30,000. The base is now equipped to hold 120 migrants. Roughly 200 Marines were dispatched to Guantanamo in recent days. That number is expected to rise to 500 in the coming days. (Source: The Wall Street Journal - U.S.)
February 4, 2025 The Trump administration prioritizes stopping people from making the journey to the United States and has worked with regional countries to boost immigration enforcement on their borders as well as to accept deportees from the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said late yesterday that El Salvador's president has offered to accept and incarcerate deportees from the U.S. of any nationality, currently imprisoned in the U.S. President Bukele confirmed the offer in a social media post, saying El Salvador was willing to rehouse deportees and American prisoners in exchange for a fee in a two-year-old mega-prison (CECOT) he had built as potent symbol of his crackdown on criminal gangs. The massive facility sits on the edge of a jungle about 45 miles southeast of San Salvador. It has a capacity for 40,000 inmates but only about 15,000 currently estimated to be incarcerated there. The Trump administration had no current plans to try to deport American citizens. The agreement Rubio described for El Salvador to accept foreign nationals arrested in the United States for violating U.S. immigration laws is known as a "safe third country" agreement. Officials have suggested this might be an option for Venezuelan gang members convicted of crimes in the United States should Venezuela refuse to accept them. Panama has been more cooperative and has allowed flights of third-country deportees to land and sent migrants back before they reach the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio’s five-nation Central American tour of Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic continues after Panama and El Salvador. (Source: CBS News, Headquarters New York / AP = U.S.)
February 4, 2025 US President Trump has invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit the White House next week. A C-17 aircraft had departed for India with migrants aboard. The Pentagon has also started providing flights to deport more than 5,000 immigrants held by US authorities in El Paso, Texas, and San Diego, California. So far, military aircraft have flown migrants to Guatemala, Peru and Honduras. The military flights are a costly way to transport migrants. A military deportation flight to Guatemala last week likely cost at least $4,675 per migrant. (Source: Gulf Today - United Arab Emirates)
2025.02.04 Pause tariffs on Canada, Mexico. Trump imposed a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico over fentanyl smuggling and what Trump says is their failure to stop the flow of cross-border migrants. But Trump agreed yesterday to pause the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month as the two countries unveiled new plans to fend off drug trafficking on their borders with the U.S. After a call with Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Canada would implement a C$1.3 billion (US$893 million) border plan, including reinforcing it with new helicopters, technology and personnel to stop the flow of fentanyl. Nearly 10,000 front-line personnel will work on protecting the border and Canada will appoint a “Fentanyl Czar,” list cartels as terrorists, ensure “24/7 eyes” on the border and launch a Canada-U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering. “Canada has agreed to ensure we have a secure Northern Border, and to finally end the deadly scourge of drugs like Fentanyl that have been pouring into our Country, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans, while destroying their families and communities all across our Country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Separately, Trump announced that Mexican President Sheinbaum agreed to immediately deploy 10,000 soldiers to the border to stop the flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants into the U.S. We attempt to achieve a deal between our two countries, the U.S. president said. (Source: Radio Free Asia - Headquarters Washington, D.C.)
February 04, 2025 The U.S. warship Preble, which is currently deployed in the Western Pacific Ocean, armed with a 60-kilowatt high-energy laser weapon - the High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance (HELIOS), developed by U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin - was pictured firing its laser at a drone target. Preble is the only U.S. destroyer armed with a high-energy laser weapon. /Photo/ (Source: Miami Herald)
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