.
Europe
Spain
30.12.2024 Migration crisis in Spain’s Canary Islands ‘unsustainable,’ says president Clavijo. In recent days, thousands of migrants have arrived or been rescued in small boats traveling to the Canary Islands from northwest Africa. In the year through Dec. 15, a record-breaking 44,700 people made the perilous journey, according to Spain’s Interior Ministry. A recent report by the NGO Walking Borders estimates that nearly 10,500 died trying. The islands, with a population of around 2.2 million, are now hosting nearly 6,000 unaccompanied child migrants. Clavijo criticized both the Spanish government and the main opposition party - the Popular Party in Madrid - for failing to relocate minors to mainland Spain. The Spanish government has proposed a long-term solution to make the redistribution of child migrants automatic, but it has been blocked by the Popular Party. Earlier this year, the Popular Party was reportedly close to backing the Spanish government’s plan. However, the ’far-right’ party Vox threatened to block all of its budget proposals in regions where its support was needed. In the summer, Vox also broke several regional governing pacts with the Popular Party after the conservative party decided to accommodate 400 young migrants in the regions it controlled. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)
European Union
(Monday), 30 December 2024, 6:00am 'Democracy is rotting in Europe'. Georgian Dream triumphed in October’s parliamentary elections and on Sunday a new president, allied to the party, was sworn in as street protests take place in Tbilisi. The West claims that it was not a free and fair election. Political opponents in Georgia have likened the election to a ‘constitutional coup’. In response to the election result in Georgia – which is an EU candidate nation - the EU adopted a resolution in which it rejected the election result and demanded a re-run within a year. Brussels said the elections represented ‘yet another manifestation of the continued democratic backsliding of the country’. In Romania, one might argue there has also been a ‘constitutional coup’ of late. On December 23 - while most of the West’s attention was focused on Christmas festivities - Romanian president Iohannis reappointed Social Democrat Marcel Ciolacu as prime minister. A few weeks ago he was soundly beaten in the first round of Romania’s presidential election, relegated to third place behind Georgescu and the centre-right candidate Lasconi of the Save Romania Union. Georgescu’s victory shocked the West. Described by the BBC as a ‘far-right, pro-Russia candidate’, he campaigned under the slogan ‘restore the dignity of the Russian nation’. Politico interviewed Georgescu shortly before the second round of the presidential election, and he spoke of his determination to curtail the influence of multinationals in Romania that he said were prospering to the detriment of the people. Politico said Georgescu’s victory in the first round of the election was ‘bound to sound alarm bells in Brussels’ because of his hostility towards foreign investors and the EU. This alarm deepened when opinion polls reported that Georgescu was on course to triumph in the second round on December 8. Georgescu rubbished the idea that Russia had somehow manipulated the result of the election. "It’s the same thing they said about Trump,’ he told Politico. ‘It’s useless. They don’t realize that the people can have the voting power. People have been used to: 'Your vote doesn’t matter.' Well, it mattered." It transpired that it didn’t matter quite as much as Georgescu assumed. On the eve of the second run off between Georgescu and Lasconi the result of the first round was annulled after outgoing President Iohannis accused the winning campaign of being supported by Russia. The Constitutional Court made their decision after examining declassified intelligence documents that noted the activation of some 800 TikTok accounts shortly before Romanians went to the polls. These were attributed to Russia and, while there was no evidence of voting irregularities in the election itself, the fact that a hostile state might have been trying to influence voters on social media was enough for the result to be annulled. The Court’s decision was ‘a complete about-turn from a decision four days before that approved the initial 24 November vote after a complete recount of 9.4 million votes. Georgescu responded by describing himself as a victim of a ‘coup d’etat’ perpetrated by a ‘corrupted regime’. To date the US State Department has not imposed visa restrictions on any Romanian officials for undermining democracy. Nor has the EU parliament passed a resolution condemning ‘democratic backsliding’. Institutions such as Emerging Europe, which describes itself as a ‘policy and management advisory’, expressed relief at the annulment. In an article a Bucharest lawyer Postelnicescu, who has ties with the European Commission, wrote: ‘We are witnessing only the beginning of what may be labelled “lawfare” when, based on interpretation of the constitutional norms, Constitutional Courts in Europe will take it upon themselves to salvage, preserve and maintain democracy and the rule of law.’ Postelnicescu justified this ‘lawfare’ by saying that Europe is in an ‘era of hybrid war with Russia’. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Romania has been a key ally of Kyiv and the two countries signed a ten-year security agreement earlier this year. Furthermore, Romania, which shares a 400 mile border with Ukraine, has become a vital conduit to global markets for Ukrainian grain. Romania also has never been as strategically important to Nato as it its now. Georgescu has praised Putin as a leader who „loves his country” and also denounced Ukraine as an ‘invented state’. He denies he is pro-Putin but with Georgescu as president, Romania might not have been quite so staunch in its support for Ukraine. Might the ‘lawfare’ that eliminated Georgescu from Romania’s presidential election also be deployed against Le Pen this spring? The leader of the National Rally in France will discover on March 31 whether she will be precluded from running for president in the 2027 election. Prosecutors in Paris have demanded that she be barred from politics for five years for misusing EU funds over a period of years. Le Pen’s supporters claim it is a political witch hunt and she accuses the prosecutors of seeking her ‘democratic death’. The month before Le Pen learns her fate, German voters will go to the polls to elect a new Chancellor and the Alternative for Germany AfD is expected to do well. Having triumphed in September’s state election in Thuringia, winning almost a third of the vote, the AfD is the party most likely to prosper electorally from last week’s terror attack in Magdeburg that left five dead and scores injured. AfD’s victory in Thuringia prompted a backlash from other political parties in Germany. In October a cross-party group of 113 centrist MPs launched a campaign to outlaw the AfD. ‘German democracy is in danger because the AfD is an anti-constitutional party that is reaching for power and has a realistic chance of gaining it,’ said Wegge of the centre-left SPD. One might counter that German democracy is endangered more by politicians who seek to ban an opponent because they find their popular ideas disagreeable. Isn’t that what happens in dictatorships and regimes such as the one in Putin’s Russia? As Nietzsche said: ‘He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby becomes a monster.’ (Source: The Spectator - United Kingdom)
By Mortimer, a British author who lives in Burgundy after many years in Paris. He writes about French politics, terrorism and sport.
Russia
(30 December 2024) The Russian defence ministry said it had swapped 150 Ukrainian soldiers held captive for an equal number of Russian troops. Today, the ministry said newly released Russian troops were in Belarus, an ally of Russia, and were being given medical assistance and the chance to contact their families. There had been just 10 prisoner exchanges between the countries this year. Ukraine said Moscow had released 3,956 people, including soldiers and civilians, in deals with Kyiv since the start of the conflict. Yatsenko from Ukraine's Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War previously told that negotiations with Moscow over prisoner swaps had become more difficult since Russian forces began making significant advances on the front line. The total number of prisoners of war being held by Russia, is thought to be more than 8,000. Russia has made significant gains on the battlefield this year, the numbers of Ukrainians being captured is on the rise. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
Dec 30, 2024, 7:21 AM Russia is not satisfied with the proposals of US President-elect Trump's team to postpone Ukraine's membership in NATO for 20 years and to deploy a contingent of EU and UK peacekeepers there, Lavrov said in an interview with TASS, judging by numerous leaks and Trump's own interview with Time magazine on December 12, where he is talking about ‘freezing’ hostilities along the line of engagement and transferring further responsibility for confronting Russia to the Europeans. Until January 20 - the date of inauguration - Trump has the status of 'president-elect," and all policy on all fronts is determined by the incumbent president and his administration, the top Russian diplomat also noted. "And so far, only the latter is authorized to engage with Russia on behalf of the United States. From time to time, as we are regularly informed, this happens, but there is no talk of negotiations on Ukraine in such contacts," the Russian foreign minister explained - Moscow has not received any official signals from the United States on the Ukrainian settlement at the moment. (Source: MEHR News Agency - Iran)
Africa
Egypt
(Monday), December 30, 2024 Egypt has tested a new 10-kilometre extension to the Suez Canal as it tries to minimise the impact of currents on shipping and increase the key waterway’s capacity. During a trial run, two ships passed through a new stretch of the canal’s two-way section without incident yesterday. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the latest expansion extends the total length of the canal’s two-way section to 82km from a previous 72km. The canal is 193km long in total. The development in the canal’s southern region will enhance navigational safety and reduce the effects of water, strong winds and sandstorms on passing ships. It would open only after new navigational maps are issued. Egyptian President Sisi earlier on Thursday said that due to regional challenges, the country had lost approximately $7 billion in Suez Canal revenue in 2024, marking more than a 60pc drop from 2023. “This expansion will boost the canal’s capacity by an additional six to eight ships on a daily basis and enhance its ability to handle potential emergencies,” the Suez Canal Authority stated. (Source: Dawn – Pakistan)
Asia
Israel
06:05-30 December 2024 AD Two decades of methodical intelligence work in preparation for an all-out war that many expected would eventually come: a New York Times investigation. (Source: Asharq al-Awsat - Headquartered London, United Kingdom, owned by a Saudi company / The New York Times - U.S.)
South Korea
Dec 30, 2024 01:55 PM IST "Bird activity'; 'Bird strike' - The final minutes of Jeju Air Flight 7C2216 as provided by South Korea's transport ministry and fire authorities. (Source: Hindustan Times - India)
North America
United States
December 30, 2024 9:58 PM GMT+1 US Treasury says Chinese state-sponsored hackers stole documents. They broke into the U.S. Treasury Department earlier this month and stole documents from its workstations, according to a letter to lawmakers. The hackers compromised a third-party cybersecurity service provider and were able to access unclassified documents, the letter said, calling it a 'major incident.' According to the letter, hackers ’gained access to a key used by the vendor to secure a cloud-based service used to remotely provide technical support for Treasury Departmental Offices (DO) end users. With access to the stolen key, the threat actor was able override the service’s security, remotely access certain Treasury DO user workstations, and access certain unclassified documents maintained by those users.’ After being alerted by cybersecurity provider BeyondTrust, the Treasury Department said it was working with the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the FBI to assess the hack's impact. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
(30.12.2024) The United States has announced further financial aid for Ukraine. US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced $3.4 billion (€3.26 billion) in direct budget assistance, which is provided in coordination with the US Agency for International Development and the State Department. US President Biden, meanwhile, said he was 'proud' to announce a new $2.5 billion military aid package for Ukraine. Nearly three years into the war, the US Congress has greenlit $175 billion in total assistance to Ukraine. Republican President-elect Trump, who publicly questioned military aid to Ukraine, takes office on January 20. (Source: DW - Germany; Reuters, AFP, AP, dpa)
DEC 30, 2024 From talking to Putin to acknowledging Zelensky's weaknesses, General Kellogg, President-elect Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, seeks to broker peace in Ukraine in 2025. Failure in Ukraine has emerged out of western disunity as the U.S., the EU, and the UK and intra-alliance interests collided on key issues such as sanctions, war aims, financial and military support. Right now there is no strategy. In their America First paper, Kellogg and Fleitz expressed an understanding of what the Biden Administration did not. Defeating Russia is not a legitimate foreign policy goal as Ukraine will never be in a position to deliver this. We cannot strike a peace deal without talking to Putin Not talking to Putin has been an unshakeable UK foreign policy approach since 2014 and is now hardwired within the EU, with its hawkish new foreign policy chief, former Estonian prime minister Kallas, ruling out direct engagement. President Zelensky has made negotiations with Russia illegal. By contrast, Russian President Putin has said repeatedly that he is willing to engage with President Trump and other world leaders to resolve the Ukraine crisis. Any approach to Russia must involve both deterrence and diplomacy. Kellogg needs to encourage European leaders to reengage with diplomacy. Ukraine is never going to join NATO. Kellogg’s role here is killing the idea, in the face of potentially heated European resistance. NATO cannot continue to hold a principled line on future Ukrainian membership that it will not underwrite with force of arms. Putin has staked his political career on Ukraine never joining NATO for over 16 years. NATO membership should finally, irrevocably and without caveats be taken off the table as part of a deal which provides security guarantees to Ukraine. Russia will expect guarantors to include non-NATO countries. Ukraine will undoubtedly want to secure a quid pro quo. Ukrainian membership in the EU would come at a huge and potentially damaging cost to the EU project and to neighboring Poland - challenges around regional funds for infrastructure investment (called cohesion funding) and agricultural subsidies are deferred for later consideration. The EU cannot afford to expand based on its current settlement without intolerable political risks of instability, which we are seeing play out in France and Germany. European leaders have kicked the issue of Ukraine’s EU membership down the road while supporting the war’s continuation. French President Macron has said that it could take 20 years for Ukraine to join. Sanctions have never nor will they ever tip the balance in favor of Ukraine which is becoming an economically failed state. Considerable effort in the West is invested in exploring how to make sanctions more impactful. This is wasted effort. 92% of all UK sanctions on individuals and 77% of sanctions on companies have had zero impact; the people or entities sanctioned have no freezable assets within our jurisdiction. Including the U.S., 20,000 Russian zero-effect sanctions could be removed upon the agreement of a peace plan between Ukraine and Russia. Russia remains in a vastly stronger position economically than Ukraine because of its size and its effective fiscal and monetary policy since 2014 There is considerable scope to offer an easing of sanctions that nonetheless maintains economic pressure on Russia. The harder-hitting sanctions would remain, contingent on Russia meeting its obligations under any peace deal. This should include clarity on how and under what circumstances frozen Russian reserves of around $300 billion will be released. Zelensky may be part of the problem, not the solution. A performative illusion and delusion merely puts off the inevitable and much-needed elections in Ukraine that would follow on from a ceasefire. Zelensky’s regular prognostications about putting his country in a stronger position to negotiate look increasingly self-serving. Ukraine will never be in a stronger position than today, militarily economically or demographically. An end to the war will signal an end to Zelensky’s political career. Opinion polls suggest he will lose a presidential election when war ends. Kellogg needs to be hard-headed and recognize that, rather than being part of the solution, Zelensky may be part of the problem in ending the war. He should encourage Zelensky to play his biggest role so far, in putting Ukraine first and taking the country to elections. (Source: Responsible Statecraft – United States)
by Proud, who was a member of His Britannic Majesty's Diplomatic Service from 1999 to 2023. He served as the Economic Counsellor at the British Embassy in Moscow from July 2014 to February 2019. He recently published his memoir, "A Misfit in Moscow: How British diplomacy in Russia failed, 2014-2019."
30 December 2024 11:33 am The H-1B visa allows U.S. companies to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations that require specific skills and education. Indians accounted for the majority of the H1B applications. Data showed that in 2022, Indians accounted for 3.2 lakh* visa applications, nearly 72 per cent of the total applications. Indians accounted for 72.3 per cent of the 3,86,000** visas (in 2023) issued under the programme, data with the US Government showed. (Source: Outlook India)
* 320 000; ** 386 000
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