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Europe
Hungary
30.09.2024 Ukraine’s FM Sybiha today arrived in Hungary’s capital for talks on several topics, including 'Kyiv’s accession to EU and NATO', says Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. Sybiha began one-on-one talks with his Hungarian counterpart Szijjártó upon arriving in Budapest. In an earlier statement, the ministry said Sybiha will travel to Budapest, where he will hold talks with Szijjártó on multiple topics, including bilateral ties and 'Kyiv’s accession to the EU and NATO'. The statement further said that Sybiha’s visit to Hungary is a continuation of his first regional tour since replacing Kuleba as Ukraine’s foreign minister earlier this month. The purpose of the tour is to establish a “pragmatic and predictable good neighborly policy and progress towards the strategic goal of Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO.' On Sept. 18-19, Sybiha paid a visit to Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova, respectively. (Source: aa *)
(* Turkey)
European Union
(Monday), 30.09.2024 The international community has warned that Israeli attacks in Lebanon could escalate the Gaza conflict into a wider regional war. The EU foreign policy chief today urged the avoidance of further military intervention in Lebanon, warning that more escalation would dramatically aggravate the situation in the region. Borrell's remarks came after an extraordinary meeting of EU foreign ministers via a video conference called this morning to discuss the current escalation in Lebanon, where multiple reports suggest an Israel ground assault is imminent. "Any further military intervention would dramatically aggravate the situation and has to be avoided," Borrell said. "We are very much concerned about the risk of this further situation of the conflict … and urge all parties in the region to show restraint in the interest of de-escalation." (Source: aa)
Russia
Sep 30, 2024, 5:47pm Putin has ordered the conscription of another 133,000 soldiers to aid his war in Ukraine. The 18-to-30 year olds will be called up between tomorrow and December 31. The figure is higher than the same draft last year when Putin recruited 130,000. In spring he drafted another 150,000. (Source: metro *)
(* United Kingdom)
(Monday, 30.9.2024 17:45 PM) Russia plans to ramp up its defense spending by almost 30% in 2025, a document on the parliamentary website published today showed. Defense spending will account for 32% of government spending in 2025, according to the figures. The latest planned increase in spending will take next year's defense budget to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion, €130 billion), up from 10.4 trillion in 2024. The figures in today's release do not include some other resources being directed to the military campaign, such as spending that Russia describes as "domestic security" and some expenditure classified as top secret. Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said that the needs of what the Kremlin calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine and support for the military would remain the budget priority for 2025. Russia had already increased military spending to levels not seen since the Soviet Union era, producing missiles and drones for use in Ukraine, while paying for its hundreds of thousands of soldiers fighting on the front lines. (Source: dw)
Ukraine
(30.9.2024 09:45 AM) Russia launched several waves of drones targeting Kyiv early today. The air force said it had shot down 67 of the 73 drones and one of the three missiles fired by Russia during the attack. No casualties or damage have been reported. Russian forces have captured the village of Nelipivka in eastern Donetsk region, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Russian President Putin has vowed in a video message that Moscow will achieve all the goals it has set for itself in Ukraine. The video message was released to mark the second anniversary of what Russia calls the "reunification day," when Moscow annexed four Ukrainian regions. In his speech, Putin repeated his justification for sending troops into neighboring Ukraine as protecting Russian speakers from a 'neo-Nazi dictatorship' that aims to 'cut them off forever from Russia, their historic homeland". The annexation was widely condemned by the international community as 'illegal and illegitimate'. (Source: dw)
Asia
Iran
Sep 30, 2024 The Iran-Iraq war of 1980s still strongly influences Iran’s strategic thinking. Its main lesson was that Iran, absent military-political alliances that guaranteed its security, had only itself to rely on for its security needs. With Israel turning against Iran after the vanquishing of Iraq’s Hussein in the early 1990s, Hezbollah’s main role, from Tehran’s point of view, became to act as a deterrent against any possible Israeli strike on Iran’s territory, particularly its nuclear infrastructure. With its growing arsenal of Iran-supplied missiles, so crucial this role has become that Hezbollah’s “loaded gun” pointed at Israel has indeed become Iran’s best insurance against an Israeli strike. The assassination by Israel of Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, may have dealt a terminal blow to any chance of a renewed détente between the United States and Europe on the one hand, and Iran on the other. The Israeli strike happened only few days after the reformist Iranian President Pezeshkian spoke at the United Nations General Assembly in New York of his desire to re-engage with the West, and his experienced foreign policy team - including those who negotiated the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA), such as Vice President for Strategic Affairs Zarif, Foreign Minister Araghchi and former ambassador to the U.N. Ravanchi - were busy reconnecting with their Western counterparts to discuss the prospects of reviving diplomacy. The assassination of Nasrallah is a blow to those prospects not because an Iranian retaliatory strike, which would compel the U.S. and EU to double down on supporting Israel, is imminent. In fact, Iranian leaders made it clear that the 'Lebanese resistance' remains strong enough to deliver a response to Israel on its own, without direct Iranian involvement. Iranian leaders, particularly Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, were slow to realize that Israel’s risk assessment had shifted dramatically after October 7, and old “red lines” no longer applied. While the assassination of Nasrallah may be seen as a reckless attempt by Netanyahu to distract attention from his failures in Gaza and boost his political standing, there is no evidence that his new, bold tactics met significant pushback from the military leaders, the opposition, or indeed the public at large. Iran is more vulnerable than ever to Israel attack. Hezbollah, Tehran's ally in Lebanon, no longer appears to be the deterrent it once was. While Israel will not succeed in completely destroying Hezbollah or whatever successor may emerge to replace it, given the organization’s deep roots in Lebanon’s Shiite community, degrading it opens a window of opportunity for Tel Aviv to strike at Iran at a moment of its perceived weakness. This is what, in fact, Trump’s son-in-law, Kushner, who is also seen as close to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, recently suggested, arguing that for Israel a failure to act decisively now would be 'irresponsible.' Given that the Biden administration has shown no inclination or ability to restrain Israel’s actions, that means that Iran urgently needs to reestablish some semblance of deterrence. The option to weaponize the country’s nuclear program has been growing increasingly attractive, even before the latest Israeli campaign in Lebanon, to the point that now the majority of the Iranians would support it. That option, however, carries enormous risks. While Iran has amassed enough technical expertise and material to build a bomb, an actual decision to build it, even if Khamenei were to shed his reluctance to go down that path, would almost certainly invite Israeli and/or American strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It will also trigger a sanctions snapback - a mechanism provided in U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 that enshrined the JCPOA. It allows any member of the Security Council to reimpose nuclear-related sanctions on Iran without a veto from other members of the Security Council. The U.S. is no longer a part of the JCPOA, but Britain and France are, and any one of them could trigger the snap back. With a rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East, there is plenty of time to do that - the deadline to activate the snapback comes in October 2025. The reimposition of the U.N. Security Council sanctions would wreck any plans by the Pezeshkian administration to reach out to the West, remove sanctions and improve Iran’s economic situation, which, in turn, would further deepen the already simmering public discontent with conditions in the country. Another option for Iran would be to urgently upgrade its air defenses - which it has to do in any case - but, in current circumstances, it would mean relying on Russia in the hope that Moscow would reciprocate Iran’s deliveries of drones and, reportedly, ballistic missiles deployed in Ukraine. Russia, however, has its own calculations, including its wariness of potentially alienating its other partners in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, if it is perceived as moving too close to Iran. Even if Russia overcomes these reservations, Moscow may ask for more in return, such as military bases on Iranian soil - politically, a controversial matter in Iran. But if, faced with a threat to its survival, the Islamic Republic does move closer to Russia, the chances of a renewed dialogue with the West, particularly Europe, would be nipped in the bud at a time when the reformist administration in Tehran strives to diversify its international ties. All of this could have been avoided if the Biden administration had used its leverage to restrain Israel and engage in good faith with Iran on the nuclear issue and regional security. As the U.S. is in the midst of an election campaign, the chances for such an about-face in Washington are nil. (Source: responsiblestatecraft)
by Mamedov, a Brussels-based foreign policy expert
Israel
(Monday, 30 09 2024 21:09 CEST) Over the last three weeks, the IDF has moved many infantry and tank units from Gaza to the northern border and mobilized several reserve brigades. Just days after killing Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, Israel is preparing for an imminent ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which will focus on villages close to the border. The Israeli security cabinet convened today to discuss the ground invasion, Israeli officials said. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant alluded to the possibility of an imminent ground invasion in a meeting with soldiers in a tank unit on the border today. "In order to ensure the return of Israel's northern communities, we will employ all of our capabilities, and this includes you,' Gallant said. In a meeting with the heads of municipalities which are located on the northern border, Gallant said 'the next phase in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon and it will be a significant factor in changing the security situation and will allow us to return the residents to their homes." Israel had adjusted its plans after 48 hours of high-level conversations between U.S. and Israeli officials. The Israelis assured the White House that the plan is now more targeted, focused on clearing out Hezbollah infrastructure near the Israeli border and then pulling IDF forces back. The Biden Administration understands the strategic purpose of the ground operation and the need to make sure Hezbollah cannot maintain the capacity to attack Israeli communities from the immediate opposite side of the border, the sources said. Israeli officials say the objective is to "clean up" military positions and infrastructure Hezbollah had established close to the border. Only once Hezbollah's presence near the border is eliminated will the tens of thousands of Israeli citizens who were displaced during cross-border strikes after Oct. 7 be able to return to their homes, the officials say. But White House officials told their Israeli counterparts they're concerned that - as in previous wars in Lebanon - what starts as a time-limited and geographically limited operation slides into something larger and longer-term. The Biden administration has also privately 'warned' that an invasion will increase support for Hezbollah among ordinary Lebanese people. 'I'm comfortable with [Israel] stopping,' President Biden said today, when asked about a potential invasion. 'We should have a ceasefire now.' Over 1,000 people have been killed in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah over the past two weeks. (Source: axios)
Lebanon
Monday, 30 September 2024 09:38 AM) Since September 23, Israel has launched its most intense and widespread assault on Lebanon since the clashes with Hezbollah began nearly a year ago. Overnight, Israeli warplanes hit the towns of Ebba and the area between Zebdine and Choukine in southern Lebanon. The Israeli army said it carried out an attack in Beirut and struck Hezbollah targets in the Bekaa Valley. Israeli forces have launched early today an air strike on Beirut’s Kola area. An Israeli drone targeted a fifth-floor apartment in a building on the road connecting Beirut with Rafik Hariri International Airport. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) confirmed that the strike killed three of its leaders: (Mohammed) Aal, a political bureau member and head of the military and security division; Ouda, the military commander in Lebanon, and (Rahman) Aal. Israeli jets also bombed the Islamic Health Authority centre in the Beqaa town of Sohmor. Israel also carried out an air strike on the El-Buss refugee camp near Tyre in southern Lebanon for the first time. Hamas said Sharif, the group’s commander in Lebanon, as well as his wife, daughter and son, were killed in the air strike. Late yesterday, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported that Israeli air strikes in the southern districts of Tyre and Bint Jbeil killed 21 people and injured 125. The ongoing attacks have claimed at least 916 lives, including women and children, and injured 2,709 others, according to data from Lebanese authorities. (Source: trtworld *)
(* Turkey)
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