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Hungary
September 27, 2024 10:22 am CET Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said yesterday that Budapest is keen to strengthen economic ties with Moscow, despite ongoing European Union sanctions against Russia. “Apart from the fact that we do not like the sanctions regime - although there are European rules that we have to comply with - we are very open about our desire to improve economic relations between Russia and Hungary in all areas that are not affected by sanctions,” Szijjártó told TASS news agency on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Szijjártó then referred to a Hungarian-Russian Economic Cooperation Committee meeting held in Budapest last week, which was attended by Russian Health Minister Murashko. “We also held a business forum, in which 173 entrepreneurs from both sides took part. For me, this shows that there is not only a political desire to improve economic relations, but business also wants this,” he said. Hungary’s vocal opposition to EU sanctions against Russia, its interest in strengthening economic ties with Moscow were leading to tensions between Brussels and Budapest. 'EU foreign ministers and finance ministers recently boycotted EU meetings held in Budapest in September, sending a message of growing frustration about Hungary’s attitude toward Russia'. (Source: politico)
Finland
27 September 2024 The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, O’Flaherty, has called on Finland to continue to honour its strong track record of promoting and defending human rights, following a visit to the country from 23 to 26 September, which focused on the situation of Roma and issues related to migration and asylum. During his visit, the Commissioner engaged with Roma communities and listened to their concerns about the discrimination they experience in different areas of life. Amidst a climate of rising racism in Finnish society, representatives from the Roma communities conveyed how antigypsyism impacts their daily interactions and access to social rights, including housing, education and employment. The Commissioner also notes that, despite a comprehensive legal framework protecting the rights of Roma, and ambitious national action plans, implementation in practice sometimes falls behind. The Commissioner is particularly concerned about the situation of the group known as “migrant EU Roma” who have immigrated mainly from eastern Europe. Without effective access to the labour and housing market and full access to social services, they often experience homelessness, and live in destitution. On the subject of migration, and following his letter to the Finnish Parliament and several committee chairs of 11 June 2024, the Commissioner sought through his visit to gain a deeper understanding of the situation at the eastern border and regarding the recently-adopted Act on Temporary Measures to Combat Instrumentalised Migration. Under this law, the government can, under certain conditions, temporarily restrict the reception of asylum applications and summarily remove migrants at or near the border, if they consider that migration flows are being instrumentalised by a foreign state. The Commissioner recognises the serious challenges faced by Finland because of the manipulation of migration on the part of a neighbouring state. Such manipulation also is to be condemned for placing already vulnerable individuals in situations of precarity. He appreciates the need for and the legitimacy of ensuring security at Finland’s borders. However, the Commissioner remains of the view that the temporary measures, if ever implemented, would entail a violation of several international obligations, including the principle of nonrefoulement, the prohibition of collective expulsion and access to effective remedies. Furthermore, taking into account experience of other states across the world, the Commissioner is unconvinced that, in the longer term the temporary measures would fulfil their intended purpose of thwarting instrumentalisation of migration and the activities of migrant smugglers. While acknowledging the considerable efforts being made by the border guards and others, the Commissioner is concerned about the feasibility of carrying out such complex assessments in compliance with human rights, especially in view of the summary manner in which they are foreseen and lacking other safeguards, such as access to judicial review and remedies with suspensive effect. The Commissioner welcomes and encourages Finland’s intention to continue seeking, at the regional level, long term, coordinated solutions to challenges relating to border security and instrumentalisation of migration. (Source: m.coe.int/finland-end-of-visit-statement)
Greece
September 27, 2024 09:33 Like Poland with its reinforced border with Belarus, countries like Greece, as the first point of contact for many migrants, are seeking to enhance their protection of the European Union’s external borders. Amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East and an increase in migration from Turkey in recent months, Athens recently resubmitted a request to the EU for financial support to further extend the fence. The Greek government has reaffirmed its commitment to extending the border fence with Turkey, designed to curb illegal migration, despite objections from the European Commission. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis had previously made it clear that the fence would be built regardless of whether EU funding is secured, stating, “The new fence will be built with or without the European Union.” The construction of the fence began in 2012 and has since been expanded using national funds. It has drawn renewed attention following Germany’s tougher stance on migration and Hungary’s vocal opposition to the controversial EU migration pact, as well as Budapest’s call to be reimbursed by Brussels for its own border fence. The request was swiftly declined by Brussels, which reiterated its opposition to financing physical barriers such as fences. “Member states must protect the EU’s external borders. They are in the best position to decide how to achieve this in practice, in a way that is fully in line with the EU acquis (body of law), including respect for fundamental rights,’ a Commission spokesperson said in response. Further diplomatic efforts, at least on a bilateral basis, took place earlier this week in New York between Mitsotakis and Turkish President Erdoğan where the pair agreed to continue cooperating in the fight against smuggling networks, a key driver of irregular migration. (Source: rmx *)
* Remix
Sweden
September 27, 2024 4:00 am CET "Swedish conditions'. Sweden’s security situation risks undermining the reputation of the country at home and abroad. Gang crime is the biggest policy challenge facing the Swedish government today. Some 195 shootings and 72 bombings have taken 30 lives this year alone and have undermined Swedish citizens’ sense of security across the country. Sweden’s domestic crisis is spilling over into neighboring states. Norwegian police believe that 'Swedish drug gangs' are now operating in all of Norway’s 12 police districts after recently expanding operations. Meanwhile, an increasing flow of 'Swedish' criminals into nearby Denmark has been reported by Danish authorities, who note that many of the recruits are very young. In early September, Danish police charged two Swedish teenagers with attempted murder, saying they had been hired by cooperating 'Swedish' and 'Danish' organized crime gangs. The police said they are currently working around 25 similar cases. Denmark’s Hummelgaard called Sweden’s Justice Minister Strömmer to Copenhagen for emergency talks over the issue in late August. To be called out by its Scandinavian neighbors is a shocking and humbling development for Sweden, a country long seen as a European bastion of social stability. After the meeting, Strömmer acknowledged the validity of concerns about 'Swedish' gang criminality affecting its neighbors, along with how "Sweden needs to do more to stop the problem at source". It has increased sentences for gun offenses and is looking at lowering the age at which criminals can be held responsible for their actions. It has also rolled out a new system of stop-and-search zones. But the crackdown has yet to have a serious impact, and the shootings and bomb attacks targeting gang members and their families continue both in Sweden - and abroad. Over recent months, 'Swedish' gangsters have been shot dead by rivals in Bosnia, Turkey and Iraq. (Source: politico)
European Parliament
(27 9 2024) Hungary holds the Presidency of the Council until December 2024 included. Ministers are holding a series of meetings in parliamentary committees to present the priorities of the Hungarian Presidency of the Council. Hungarian Presidency debriefs EP committees on priorities. On 19 September, European Union Affairs Minister Bóka highlighted the need to reform the EU for upcoming enlargement and told MEPs that the Presidency envisions two ministerial-level discussions on the future of Europe. He raised concerns about maintaining interinstitutional balance when reforming the Framework Agreement between the EP and the Commission and mentioned the transparency of interest representation, EU accession to the European Court of Human Rights, and the EU Ethics Body as other priorities. MEPs debated issues including the Hungarian government’s stance on EU values and its compliance with EU Court of Justice judgments. Many speakers raised concerns on the Prime Minister’s recent visits to Moscow and Beijing, while others advocated enhancing national authorities’ role in EU decision-making. Hungary’s announcement that it will seek an opt-out from migration rules and its national assembly’s position that European elections should be abolished were also discussed. On 23 September, Raisz, Secretary of State for Environmental Affairs and Circular Economy, said the Presidency would push for a more competitive Europe while addressing the triple challenge of reducing pollution, mitigating climate change, and preserving biodiversity. MEPs quizzed the Minister on the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction target for 2040, the Clean Industrial Deal, COP29, recent floods in Europe, the circular economy, pollution, new genomic techniques, chemicals, the role of forests and soil monitoring. Takács, Secretary of State for Health, highlighted, as priorities, adopting Council conclusions on cardiovascular diseases and renewing EU cooperation on organ donation and transplants. The Presidency also intends to adopt the updated Council recommendation on smoke-free environments and advance on the pharmaceutical package. MEPs quizzed the Presidency on measures foreseen on rare diseases, equal access to medicines, shortages in the healthcare workforce, the competitiveness of the EU’s pharmaceutical industry as well as mRNA vaccines. On 26 September Azbej, State Secretary for the Aid of Persecuted Christians, said that the Presidency would pay particular attention to the humanitarian-peace-development nexus, especially in the Sahel region. Mr Azbej also mentioned as priorities the implementation of the EU’s Samoa Agreement with the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific region, tacking the root causes of migration in partner countries, and supporting the Global Gateway initiative and the Team Europe approach to development. MEPs raised questions about the credibility of the Presidency’s claims to advocate for human rights and democracy, given the rule of law concerns around the government as well as its ties with China and Russia. They also raised the importance of addressing the global persecution of Christians, and plans for closer cooperation with partner countries and countries of origin on returns and readmissions. (Source: europarl)
United Kingdom
27.09.2024 With space and cyberspace becoming increasingly central in everyday life and a key factor contributing to success in combat, influence in the shared spaces will be yet another vital area of power," the ministry said in the seventh edition of its long-term foresight analysis "Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055."
The report /456 p/:: https://tinyurl.com/vwaz7xz7
Asia
Iraq
9:16 PM CEST, September 27, 2024 The U.S. announced an agreement with the Iraqi government today to wrap up the military mission in Iraq of an American-led coalition fighting the islamic state group by next year, with U.S. troops departing some bases that they have long occupied during a two-decade-long military presence in the country. In the first phase, which runs through September 2025, the coalition mission against isis will end and forces will leave some longstanding bases. In the second phase, the U.S. will continue to operate in some fashion from Iraq through 2026 to support counter-isis operations in Syria. But the Biden administration refused to provide details on how many of the approximately 2,500 U.S. troops still serving in Iraq will remain there or acknowledge it will mark a full withdrawal from the country. Ultimately, the U.S. military mission would transition to a bilateral security relationship. The Iraqi officials said some American troops may stay at Hareer base after 2026 because the Kurdistan regional government would like them to stay.Bases housing U.S. forces and contractors have been regularly targeted by Iran-backed militias over the last several years, and those attacks intensified late last year and early this spring after the Israel-Hamas war broke out nearly a year ago. For years, Iraqi officials have periodically called for a withdrawal of coalition forces, and formal talks to wind down the U.S. presence in the country have been going on for months. Iraq has long struggled to balance its ties with the U.S. and Iran, both allies of the Iraqi government but regional archenemies. The presence of American forces in Iraq makes it more difficult for Iran to move weapons across Iraq and Syria into Lebanon, for use by its proxies, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, against Israel. The agreement marks the third time in the last two decades that the U.S. has announced a formal transition of the military’s role there. (Source: apnews)
North America
United States
September 27, 2024 Ukraine’s desperate 'Victory Plan.' UK prime minister Keir Starmer recently visited U.S. president Biden to approve a green light to Kyiv. Several European countries, including Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden, and Finland support the UK. In contrast, German chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out permission for Ukraine to use its Taurus cruise missiles. Kyiv wants permission to fire long-range missiles (300-400km) into Russia. President Zelensky visited Washington this week to pitch his “victory plan,” which involves deep strikes and new weaponry. Will the United States greenlight Ukrainian “deep strikes” into Russia? The Biden administration appears very cautious while it weighs the costs, risks, and benefits of long-range strike approval. There is a sense of déjà vu here. We have seen similar “sagas” of Western weapon supplies throughout this war. Recall the hesitancy to send HIMARS, then NATO tanks, ATACMS, and F-16s. Each time, America and Germany demonstrated reluctance only later to agree. While these stories keep Ukraine in the news cycle, in military-strategic terms, it is far from a success. Kyiv’s desire for Western approval for long-range strikes within Russia will not bring about anything close to a decisive victory for Ukraine. Giving too little, too late has been the recurring theme of the West’s dysfunctional support of Ukraine’s war effort. NATO weapons systems are expensive and in short supply. Drip-feeding them to Ukraine means they can only be used in sporadic and indecisive ways. In addition, this approach provides Russia with a sandbox environment in which to study Western weapons and work out technical countermeasures. Having adapted to each wave of NATO weaponry deployed against it, Russia continues its grinding and methodical war of attrition. There are increasing signs that Ukraine is reaching a breaking point. Kyiv insists on permission for deep strikes, claiming this can stem the tide. The Biden administration has good reason to doubt the effectiveness of deep strikes. The range of Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles is around 300km. They cannot threaten Russia’s military-industrial heartlands, energy system, or wider war-making capacity with strategic bombing on a mass scale. On the tactical and operational level, however, such strikes can cause significant inconvenience to Russia. Such missiles can hit Russian bases, supply dumps, transport, and energy systems in the logistical rear of the frontlines. This could disrupt Russia’s progress in the Donbas for some period. But can Ukraine really be supplied with enough of these costly missiles to slow Russia for a long enough time? And how will this stop Russia’s ongoing destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid and its deepening humanitarian tragedy? How do deep strikes solve the problem of Ukraine’s shrinking population or the lack of basic military materiel to equip Ukrainian brigades and hold the line? Zelensky is looking for escalation permission, as Ukraine runs out of time and options. Washington is worried about the bigger picture. They know approving deep strikes may not only derail chances for peace negotiations - 'an option Washington wants to keep open" — but also open a Pandora’s box of escalation scenarios. Putin has declared that a greenlight for Ukraine’s deep strikes would mean 'the United States, NATO, and the European countries are at war with Russia,' which would take 'suitably matched' countermeasures. Alongside Russia’s new and less restrictive nuclear doctrine, what might these be? On September 16, the Houthis successfully hit central Israel with a long-range ballistic missile for the first time. It is unknown who supplied them with this missile system. If Moscow sends the Houthis Iskander (400km range) ballistic weapons or Zircon (range 1000km) hypersonic missiles, it could spark a massive escalation in the Middle East. U.S. naval assets in the Red Sea would suddenly be very vulnerable. Their sinking would transmit a shocking message of U.S. weakness in the region at a critical time. Russia could also try to bring the war home to Europeans, whose taxes pay a large part of Ukraine’s war effort. The most extreme scenario would be if Russia retaliated with deep strikes on Ukraine’s own logistical rear, which is partly located on the territory of NATO members Poland and Romania. The triggering of Article 5, whether intentional or not, would lead to a critical moment of decision. Would the United States follow through with a devasting conventional strike on Crimea? Would Russia then use tactical nuclear weapons as its final attempt to restore deterrence? "Thankfully, there is reason to believe' that Washington sees these dangers and will work with Moscow to manage the risks. This clearly disgusts a great deal of analysts and commentators in the West who are gung-ho about deep strikes and united in seeing Russia as a paper tiger whose bluffs can be ignored. The historians of the future will likely commend the restraint of the Biden administration. It has kept the world safe from unpredictable escalation between two nuclear powers. 'Even if deep strikes are greenlighted, Washington will ensure they come too late and be on too small a scale' to help Ukraine. It is at this point that Biden and the company will also be judged less favorably by the same historians. Their policy of limited support is failing, and Kyiv cannot achieve success within the parameters imposed upon them. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Blackburn, a Senior Researcher in Norwegian Institute of International Affairs’ (NUPI) Research Group on Russia, Asia and International Trade. He is also an affiliated researcher at the Institute of Russian and Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University. He is engaged in research on Iran-Russia-China cooperation for the Norwegian Geopolitics Centre and is a research coordinator for the Civilizationalism Project based at Stanford University.
(26.9.2024 18:00) The US, EU and Kyiv all lambasted Russian President Putin's plans to amend Russia's nuclear deterrence doctrine in a manner which might consider a 'massive' aerial attack on Russia supported by a nuclear state as a 'joint attack,' even if the attacker is a non-nuclear state. The update was proposed yesterday by President Putin, who has the right to pass it. Putin gave the example of Russia receiving "reliable information of a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border,' as a case where Russia might consider nuclear retaliation. It is seen as a clear reference to Ukraine, as Kyiv presses its Western allies to grant it permission to use the long-range weapons they provide to strike deep within Russia. US Secretary of State Blinken criticized the proposed amendment on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly today as 'totally irresponsible'. 'Russia has nothing left but nuclear blackmail; it has no other instruments to intimidate the world', Yermak, head of the president's office, wrote yesterday evening. He said attempts to spread fear would not work. European Union foreign policy spokesman Stano rejected the plan as 'reckless and irresponsible.' The Kremlin meanwhile defended the move, describing it as a warning to the west. (Source: dw)
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