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Asia / The Middle East
August 19, 2024 Another crisis enveloping the Middle East region: intense heat and water scarcity. In Egypt, temperatures have rarely fallen below 100 degrees since May. In late June, the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, registered a temperature of 125 degrees (51,6 °C). This heat coincided with Hajj season. When it was over, more than 1,300 people had lost their lives. In mid-July, the heat index in Dubai was 144 degrees Fahrenheit (62,2 °C). It was actually hotter in the Gulf region last summer, topping out at an eye-popping real feel of 158 degrees (70 °C ) in the coastal areas of Iran and the United Arab Emirates. That reading and the unrelenting heat this season exceeded the wet-bulb temperature at which humans, if exposed for six hours, can no longer cool themselves off, leading to heat-related illnesses and death. The World Bank estimates that by 2050, water scarcity will result in GDP reductions of up to 14 percent in the region. In 2021, a UNICEF report stated that Egypt could run out of water by 2025, with the Nile River coming under particular stress, exacerbated by the upriver flow of the Nile being restricted because of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Syria and Turkey have been at odds over many years because the Turks have built dams along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, cutting the flow south. Among the many issues that divide Israelis and Palestinians is water and who has the right to tap into the Mountain Aquifer of the West Bank. In the Middle East and North Africa, a hotter region has the potential to destabilize politics well beyond its borders. As the October 2021 National Intelligence Estimate on climate change dryly noted, the U.S. intelligence community had low to moderate confidence in how physical climate impacts will affect US national security interests and the nature of geopolitical conflict. How people adapt to rising temperatures and water scarcity? They migrate to places with lower temperatures and more water. According to the World Bank, as many as 19 million people - approximately 9 percent of the local population - will become displaced in North Africa by 2050 because of the climate crisis. The bank is extrapolating. It is possible that there may be political, economic, or technological changes that limit the number of migrants., not every person on the move will be migrating, and some of those displaced people will remain in the region given the resources necessary to make it across the Mediterranean. Internally displaced people generally settle in urban areas, put pressure on the budgets and infrastructure of places whose resources and capacity to absorb migrants are limited. In the abstract, migration is ’positive’ for countries in the European Union, which have aging populations and need workers to pay into generous social safety nets. Yet the claim that migration provides benefits to society remains unconvincing to a significant number of Europeans who oppose large or perceptively large numbers of newcomers into their countries. France’s National Rally party has become a major force in French politics in large part due to its opposition to immigration, especially from Islamic countries. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the avatar of European illiberalism, ’built his authoritarian system on fears of the threat’ that migrants pose to Hungarian society. 2015, Germany. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians sought refuge from the violence enveloping their country. Then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel made the decision to grant Syrians entry. It was a decision that many Germans embraced, but has helped drive the emergence of the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party. Migration is the through line in this phenomenon. 2016, Brexit. Immigration propelled the United Kingdom’s imprudent decision to leave the European Union. The proximate cause of the recent riots in England was the allegation that an immigrant was responsible for the murder of three young girls at a dance class in the seaside town of Southport. The ensuing street violence suggests simmering resentment toward migrants within a segment of the marginalized English working class. The Unites States has a compelling interest in a Europe that is stable, whole, free, and prosperous. Washington needs to help head off mass migration to Europe. Using its own experience and technical expertise from managing resources in the increasingly hot western United States, the U.S government can play a useful role in helping countries in the Middle East do a better job managing what water they have. The conflicts that span the region make assistance harder, given the fact that water sources often cross boundaries. That challenge can be overcome. There are technical solutions to the problem of water scarcity. There are also political incentives to come to agreement even across conflict zones. Leaders across the region have a political interest in satisfying at least their people’s minimum demands, including access to water. Egyptian President Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed have a strong interest in sharing the waters of the Nile. Without such an agreement, the political and economic problems of both countries will deepen, threatening both leaders. The maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon can be a template of sorts for the way U.S. officials approach the problem of water sharing in the region. U.S. diplomats separated Israeli concerns about Lebanon and Lebanese concerns about Israel and focused instead on the upside for each country. Once that became clear the exploitation of gas deposits off the Israeli and Lebanese coasts, it was hard for the two countries that nonetheless remain in a state of war to not agree to a boundary. Despite 10 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the agreement has not been breached. That suggests a way forward for negotiations over water. Washington should focus on issues where it has a realistic chance of making a difference. Water is critically important, an area where the United States has expertise to bring to bear. Helping strike agreements to manage water scarcity in the Middle East is a low-cost way the United States can mitigate ’the perversions’ of European politics and help shape the global order to come. (Source: Foreign Policy)
by Cook, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). His latest book is The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East; Bouri, a research associate at the CFR.
China
Aug 19, 2024 China appears to have installed a laser directed energy weapon on one of its Type 071 amphibious assault ships, mirroring U.S. and other nations’ expanding activities in the same arena. The system is mounted immediately aft of the 76mm dual-purpose gun on the ship’s bow. Most of China’s activities with laser weapons have, so far, been conducted on land. The precise vessel is the Siming Shan, which has the hull number 986, or hull number 988, the Yimeng Shan. Until the arrival of the Type 075 landing helicopter dock, the Type 071 was the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)’s largest operational amphibious warfare ship. The Type 071 displaces around 25,000 tons, includes a small flight deck at the stern and hangar space for up to four Z-8 heavy transport helicopters. It also has capacity for four air-cushion landing craft, up to around 60 armored fighting vehicles, and as many as 800 troops. This example of the Type 071 has been selected as a test platform for the laser weapon, which may then make its way onto other warships, too. There’s an obvious parallel between the Chinese system and the LWSD Mk 2 Mod 0, which was primarily developed to provide ships with an additional line of defense against unmanned aircraft and small boat swarms. Additionally, the U.S. laser can be used as a dazzler for blinding optical sensors and seekers. Both have been installed on amphibious assault ships for testing. An Arleigh Burke class destroyer, the USS Preble is now armed with a High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance system, or HELIOS. This is a 60-kilowatt class directed energy laser weapon and is the first of its kind to be integrated with the Aegis combat system. A number of other Arleigh Burke class destroyers, including the USS Dewey and USS Stockdale, have been fitted with the Optical Dazzling Interdictor, Navy (ODIN) system. The laser on the turreted ODIN is only capable of being used as a dazzler, though the complete system also has secondary surveillance capabilities. Some dazzlers could temporarily blind an aircraft’s crew or cause permanent eye damage, as well as cause damage to optical sensors. The U.S. Navy envisages using more powerful lasers to engage larger and more complex threats, including low-flying cruise missiles and aircraft. The PLAN does indeed have similar ambitions that would eventually provide its warships with some very significant new capabilities. (Source: The War Zone - U.S.)
by Newdick, a defense writer and editor, covering military aerospace topics and conflicts, who has contributed to many of the world’s leading aviation publications. Before 2020, he was the editor of AirForces Monthly.
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