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China
2022-10-20 "These days, it seems to be a crime to be 'Taiwanese'," says a Taiwanese business owner who has worked in China for two decades. Deteriorating relations between Taiwan and China have made the position of such "Taishang" very difficult. They cannot be seen as pro-Taiwan independence, but they also cannot offend Taiwanese sensibilities and openly swear fealty to the Communist Party. For most Taishang, besides hoping that the Chinese government can exercise greater “precision” in their efforts to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic from spreading, their other greatest wish is that the business environment will not be irrevocably damaged by rifts in Cross-Strait relations. These concerns reached a boiling point when U.S. House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan. The new policy white paper titled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era”, published by the PRC State Council a week after Pelosi’s visit, was an olive branch extended to Taishang. It specifically promises “regulations and policies that fully guarantee that Taiwanese compatriots will receive full benefits and equal treatment in China' and supports “Taiwanese efforts to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative'. An investment fund manager who frequently works all around China has an opposite take. He predicts that as China’s state enterprise advances and private sectors retreat, Taishang who lack connections will have a hard time winning the trust of Chinese companies and participating in the development of important industries. “Taiwanese people will have a hard time getting aboard China’s next big wave.” Another Taiwanese business owner in the traditional industries, who set up plants in China in the early nineties, also has a pessimistic outlook. He points out that the same level of control the Chinese government has exerted on mega corporations like Alibaba and Tencent may one day happen to Taishang. “If I could turn back time, I would not have come to China 30 years ago. As things stand, all I can do is try to survive.” Stay in the shadows; play by the rules - for Taishang trying to do business in the worsening political situation, this may be the only way for them to survive. (Source: cw *)
* CommonWealth Magazine, Taiwan
20 October 2022 Last year, the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that China's threat to move in on Taiwan would 'manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years.' China could invade Taiwan as early as this year, US Naval Chief warns as Xi solidifies his grip on Beijing and the Communist Party. 'It's not just what Jinping says, it's how the Chinese behave and what they do,' Gilday said at an event held by the Atlantic Council on October 19. 'What we've seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they've made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it.' As Beijing launches fresh military exercises by air and sea off Taiwan's coast, the Navy has now adopted a 'fight tonight' mentality. Sec. of State Blinken backed up such predictions earlier this week at a forum at Stanford University with former secretary of state Rice, when he said China is speeding up its timeline to take back Taiwan. 'The wheels of history are rolling toward China's reunification' with Taiwan, Xi said at the Communist Party Congress, which gathers every five years. He said that while China preferred peaceful measures to retake the island democracy of 23 million people it would not rule out 'the option to take all necessary measures.' Xi has ramped up military drills along Taiwan's coastline in the Taiwan Strait in recent months. Last week, Biden released his official national security strategy that focused heavily on 'outcompeting' China. The president made it clear that despite Russia's nuclear threats, he is more concerned about China in the long-term. (Source: DailyMail)
Thuersday, October 20, 2022 China’s service members have virtually no combat experience - which some Chinese leaders have referred to as a “peace disease.” In 2015, Mr. Xi launched China’s most ambitious military reforms in decades. He overhauled the organizational structure of the PLA with the goal of allowing its armed services - army, navy, air force and rocket and support forces - to work more closely together. Such coordination would likely be needed for major operations such as an invasion of Taiwan. Mr. Xi also expanded the PLA’s budget, created new special operations units and stepped up efforts to draw in more qualified service members. Beijing extended free healthcare to troops and their families, improved military canteens and encouraged putting popular boy band members in military propaganda to drive recruitment. The People’s Liberation Army now has hypersonic missiles that evade most defenses, a technology the U.S. is still developing. Its attack drones can swarm to paralyze communications networks. China’s naval ships outnumber America’s, and it launched its third aircraft carrier this summer, the first to be designed and built in the country. Its defense budget is second only to the U.S.’s. China’s military has more serving members, at around 2 million, compared with under 1.4 million in the U.S. The question for Mr. Xi, which he has raised in public, is whether those forces are ready for battle. “We must comprehensively strengthen military training and preparation, and improve the army’s ability to win,' Mr. Xi said on Sunday at the opening of the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress. Mr. Xi reiterated that Beijing wouldn’t renounce the use of force in China’s effort to take control of the island. "The complete unification of the motherland must be realized, and it will be realized,” he said, drawing loud applause. Sorties close to the island by the Chinese air force have reached more than 1,200 so far this year. Yet PLA publications say some officers make flawed operational decisions, struggle to lead their troops and sometimes don’t understand their own orders. Rank-and-file troops are caught in a top-down system of command, potentially leaving them ill-equipped to improvise in battlefield situations - a situation that has hobbled Russia’s military in its invasion of Ukraine. China’s political priorities mean that around 40% of new recruits’ training has involved studying about the Communist Party rather than learning how to be a service member. Leaders, some of whom see young Chinese as pampered products of the country’s one-child policy, question whether they are tough enough to fight. An effort to make China’s different military branches work more closely together - so-called “jointness,” which is considered crucial to modern warfare - remains untested. The PLA appears to be making progress in bringing forces together for more complex joint exercises, helped by interaction with other militaries, especially Russia’s. Since Mr. Xi took power, China has increased drills with Russia to as many as 10 a year from one or two previously. Last year, the PLA’s air force and army took part in the first major joint exercises with Russia inside China, involving more than 10,000 personnel. The drills included airborne troop assaults, drone attacks and precision fighter jet strikes, according to official reports. Mr. Xi’s ambition, according to China’s most recent defense white paper, is to complete a modernization of the military by 2035 and turn it into a 'world-class force' by 2049. Strategists outside China say the PLA’s short-range missile, air and naval power is now so well developed that it would be nearly impossible for other countries’ militaries to operate near China’s shoreline in a conflict. Beijing’s cyberwar capabilities are widely considered to be state-of-the-art. The U.S Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in a report this year that China is almost certainly capable of launching cyberattacks that would disrupt critical infrastructure in the U.S., including oil and gas pipelines and rail systems. Hundreds of millions of dollars spent on ballistic missile technology mean that China can now put U.S. bases in Asia under threat. Central to the PLA’s issues is a shortage of high-quality talent, including for officers. The lowest successful scores at China’s prestigious Tsinghua University in 2021 were in many cases nearly 10% higher than at the National University of Defense Technology, often referred to in China as the military Tsinghua. The PLA lacks a well-established system for bringing in and retaining talented noncommissioned officers, the backbone of most militaries. Military analysts say the PLA does have some highly proficient service members, including units similar to U.S. Navy Seals and Air Force commandos. The true test of PLA personnel will be when they’re called on to fight. (Source: msn)
17 Oct 2022 China locks down 10 lakh people near iPhone factory, from today. The iPhone manufacturing hub of Zhengzhou locked down one of its most-populated districts to tame a virus flareup. Almost 1 million residents of Zhongyuan district were ordered to stay at home starting today, except for when they need to undergo Covid testing, and non-essential businesses have been shut. The wider restrictions follow the lockdown of some neighborhoods last week. The city reported 6 new local cases for yesterday, down from a recent peak of 40 on Oct 9. Creeping restrictions throughout China are underscoring the constant threat of disruption companies face while the country sticks to Covid Zero. President Xi yesterday signaled no looming change to the approach. He avoided mentioning the economic toll during a speech opening the twice-a-decade Party Congress in Beijing. He said the strict rules protect people’s lives. Nationwide, cases declined to 697, the lowest in two weeks, as outbreaks in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang came under control. Beijing posted 13 new cases, and Shanghai had 32. Several schools in Shanghai have suspended in-person classes as the fear of infection spread grows. The port city of Tianjin last week announced a lockdown of one district and the southern megacity of Guangzhou shut schools in one area. (Source: livemint)
Note: 10 lakh = 100 000 (India)
October 16, 2022 China will never renounce the right to use force but will strive for a peaceful resolution, President Xi said today at the opening of a major party meeting. 'The historical wheels of national reunification and national rejuvenation are rolling forward, and the complete reunification of the motherland must be achieved, and it must be achieved!" he added, to a long round of applause. 'Resolving the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people's own business, and it up to the Chinese people to decide,' he said. Beijing has offered Taiwan a "one country, two systems' model of autonomy, the same formula it uses for Hong Kong. But all mainstream Taiwanese political parties have rejected that proposal and it has almost no public support, according to opinion polls. Taiwan says only its people can decide their own future and that Beijing's claims are void as the People's Republic of China has never governed any part of the island. (Source: TheAsahiShimbun)
16/10/2022 In an opening address lasting about 100 minutes, Xi celebrated the party's continued efforts to eradicate Covid as a major achievement. He said the approach had "protected people's safety and health to the highest degree". Xi also highlighted as a success his graft crackdown. He said the anti-corruption campaign had eliminated 'serious latent dangers' within the Communist Party, the military and the state. Xi also focused on two of China's most sensitive security and sovereignty issues at the start of speech. He lauded Hong Kong's transition from 'chaos to governance', while his vow to 'never commit to abandoning the use of force' on the self-ruled island of Taiwan drew rapturous applause. Xi told the delegates that China would "actively participate in global governance on climate change'. He also reiterated that China opposed a 'Cold War mentality' in international diplomacy. "China... resolutely opposes all forms of hegemony and power politics, opposes the Cold War mentality, opposes interfering in other countries' domestic politics, opposes double standards,' he said. Xi did not reference the Ukraine war. (Source: RFI)
October 16, 2022 Chinese President Xi delivered a speech that lasted less than two hours focusing heavily on security and reiterating policy priorities during the opening ceremony of the week-long 20th National Congress of China's ruling Communist Party at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing today. He said China will strengthen its ability to build a strategic deterrent capability. Xi called for strengthening the ability to maintain national security, ensuring food and energy supplies, securing supply chains, improving the ability to deal with disasters and protecting personal information. Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said that as China's economy has slowed, Xi is attempting to shift the basis of legitimacy from economic growth to security. "His narrative is - China faces many dangers, the country is in a war-like state, figuratively, and he is the savior. With this narrative, he can get people to unite around him," he said. In recent days, China has repeatedly emphasized its commitment to Xi's zero-COVID strategy, dashing hopes among countless Chinese citizens as well as investors that Beijing might begin exiting anytime soon a policy that has caused widespread frustration and economic damage. 'We have adhered to the supremacy of the people and the supremacy of life, adhered to dynamic zero-COVID ... and achieved major positive results in the overall prevention and control of the epidemic, and economic and social development,' Xi said. On the economy, he restated support for the private sector and allowing markets to play a key role, even as China fine-tunes a 'socialist economic system', promotes "common prosperity" and gives 'better play to the role of the government'. The biggest applause came when Xi restated opposition to Taiwan independence. The congress is expected to reconfirm Xi as party general secretary, China's most powerful post, as well as chairman of the Central Military Commission. (Source: TheAsahiShimbun)
October 14, 2022 China’s Communist Party will on October 16, Sunday open its 20th Party Congress, the country’s most important political meeting, which is held once every five years. The CCP, which has ruled China since 1949, has held 19 congresses to fill its leadership ranks since it was founded in 1921. This year, about 2,300 delegates from across the country will descend on Beijing in a highly choreographed event to pick members of the Central Committee, which is made up of around 200 people. The committee will select members for the 25-person Politburo and its all-powerful Standing Committee - the country’s highest leadership body and apex of power, currently comprising just seven people. The amount of turnover within the Central Committee - generally around 60 percent - may signal how aggressively Xi intends to reshuffle, wrote Johnson, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. The opaque process that will see major leadership changes is expected to bolster China’s leader Xi’s authority. Xi is all but certain to begin an unprecedented third five-year term as party general secretary. In 2018, he abolished the presidential two-term limit, set by former leader Deng in the 1980s to avoid another Mao-style dictatorship. A sweeping anti-corruption campaign since Xi came to power has brought down former ministers and Politburo members, weakening party factions and eliminating rivals. Since 2002, Standing Committee members aged 68 or above have stepped down, abiding by the unwritten retirement age first employed by former president Jiang to dump an ageing rival. If the informal rule is upheld, but as expected does not apply to Xi, two out of seven members will step down - leaving Xi, 69, Li, 67, Zhao, 65, Wang, 67, and Wang, also 67. Xi has already installed close allies in top positions this year, such as the new minister for public security Wang, 65. (Source: HongKongfp
14.10.2022 The anti-corruption campaign Xi launched after taking power in 2012, the yearslong crackdown, which has ensnared more than 4.7 million party officials, allowed the Chinese leader to remake the party leadership and place those loyal to him in key positions. Half of his targets appear to be politically motivated. Xi also implemented a series of ideological, institutional and organizational changes that led to the concentration of even more power around him. Xi's efforts to extend his term or remain in power indefinitely could have a destabilizing effect on the party. It could jeopardize the established procedure of transfer of power and aggravate the risk of intraparty power struggles. There will be a major leadership reshuffle at the congress, with several members of the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee - the CCP's most powerful organ - expected to step down. The final decision will be dictated by Xi, and his preference as well as these individuals' political loyalty will be the key criteria. Potential successors include current Vice Premier Hu and Wang, chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference National Committee, currently the party's fourth-highest ranking official. Wang may be more suitable than Hu as he has worked well with Xi over the last five years, handling issues related to Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet. Premier Li is set to retire in March 2023. (Source: DW)
Thursday 13 October 2022 A rare protest against Chinese leader Xi has taken place in China ahead of a historic Communist Party congress. The rally in Beijing's northwestern Haidian district today was swiftly ended by police and security personnel. The demonstrators unfurled banners bearing several slogans on a bridge. One banner read: "Overthrow the dictator and thief of the country Xi. Another called for an end to strict COVID-19 policies. "We don't want COVID tests, we want to eat; we don't want lockdowns, we want to be free, it read. (Source: SkyNews)
October 11, 2022 "For the first time in a generation, weakening China is now more important to the United States than working with China'. New measures will block sales of semiconductors vital for the development of artificial intelligence, supercomputers, and other critical technologies as well as expand prohibitions on the sale to China of equipment needed for making its own advanced chips. Such chips not only are vital to the latest weaponry but also have broad commercial applications, from health care to autonomous vehicles. And in a novel move, the actions also forbid U.S. companies and citizens from working with Chinese entities on advanced semiconductor design, research, or fabrication. Americans - mostly Chinese or Taiwanese dual citizens - work in some of the most important positions. The more the control regime expands, the more acute the conflict will become between the administration and U.S. companies. Shares in U.S. chipmakers plunged following the announcement; the stocks of the most affected companies, such as Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, are down almost 60 percent this year. They were notified in advance of the coming restrictions. China is the most important global market for semiconductor exports, and the commercial success of U.S. chip companies depends in no small part on access to China’s market. Chip sales to China are down 25 percent so far this year, and semiconductor equipment sales have fallen 15 percent. Boston Consulting Group has estimated that a complete ban on U.S. chip sales to China would cost U.S. semiconductor firms 18 percent of their global market share and 37 percent of their revenues. The goal appears to be to freeze China’s ability to make or acquire logic chips below the 14-nanometer node, well above the current leading-edge capabilities of 5 nanometers or less. (The smaller the node, the more advanced the chip.) The Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), China’s largest chipmaker, announced in August that it had started shipping 7-nanometer semiconductors, just one generation behind the most advanced chips fabricated in Taiwan and South Korea. (Source: ForeignPolicy)
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