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Egyik 19

Magyarországról, utódállami területekről, Európáról, Európai Unióról, további földrészekről, globalizációról, űrről

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2024. VI. 30. Denmark, France, Germany, European Union, Russia, United States

2024.07.01. 11:38 Eleve

.

Europe

Denmark
30 June 2024  King Frederik and Queen Mary of Denmark
have begun their trip to Greenland. The couple arrived on the royal yacht, Dannebrog, in north Greenland at the Pituffik Space Base. They then travelled to Qaanaaq to greet the townspeople who performed dances and songs at the sports hall. They also attended a reception at the Town Hall. King Frederik and Queen Mary next visited Aasiaat where they were greeted by Mayor Hansen and members of the municipal council. A reception at Aasiaat Museum and Niels Egedes Plads followed with a cannon salute and choral singing at the museum and music and dancing at Niels Egedes Plads. The King and Queen first visited Greenland 20 years ago while Crown Prince and Crown Princess. Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark and is located in North America. It borders Canada. (Source: royal-news *)
*

France
30/06/2024 - 21:03  After France’s snap elections
French President Macron and the 'leftist' union New Popular Front are urging voters to block the 'far right' in the decisive second-round elections on July 7. The “far right is at the gates of power,” said French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal today, adding that he would work to ensure the National Rally (RN) does not win an absolute majority. 'I would like to call on all French voters – not a single vote should go to the RN,' he said. (Source: france24 *)
* France 24, French international news television network based in Paris, owned by the French government.

30/06/2024 - 07:04  French voters are casting their ballots today in the first stage of the two-round legislative elections called by President Macron. A candidate can win in the first round by garnering 50 percent of votes cast if turnout represents at least 25 percent of the constituency's registered voters. In the case of a second round, anyone winning at least 12.5 percent of voters may stand. If no candidate garners the 12.5 percent required, the top two candidates compete in a second round. Some 49 million French are eligible to vote. Macron dissolved the National Assembly on June 9 after the 'far-right' National Rally hammered his centrist alliance in the European elections and called snap legislative elections for June 30 and July 7. Macron's decision sparked uncertainty in Europe's second-biggest economy. (Source: france24 )

30/06/2024 6:49 AM  French voters begin casting their ballots in the first of the two-round legislative elections. Voters in the overseas territory of Saint Pierre and Miquelon began voting yesterday. Candidates securing more than 50% of the vote in the first round are elected, but that is rare. A second decisive round will be held on July 7. The top scorer wins. Four major blocks are competing for National Assembly's 577 seats. Macron's Renaissance party is part of the Ensemble (Together) coalition, the centrist, pro-EU and pro-NATO alliance, supporter of Ukraine's fight against Russian forces. The party was trounced by the 'far-right' National Rally (RN) party of Le Pen in the European Parliament elections earlier this month. It currently holds 250 seats. The New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of 'left-wing' parties and the Greens was formed earlier this month after the snap elections was called by President Macron. Its platform includes overturning immigration and pension reforms, a wealth tax and increasing the minimum wage. It also wants to 'immediately recognize the Palestinian state" and stop "the French government's guilty support' for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It currently holds 149 seats. In polls, NFP alliance is in second place, while Macron's centrist alliance is trailing in third. Le Pen's 'far-right' National Rally, projected to win this election, is anti-immigration and anti-EU. Le Pen heads the RN's parliamentary group which currently holds 88 seats. It is unclear whether the party will secure the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. NR's president, Bardella, has said that if chosen as prime minister, he would not allow French missiles to be delivered to Ukraine that can strike targets within Russia itself, let alone send troops to the conflict, an idea floated by Macron. The prime minister is responsible for domestic laws, while Macron 'will remain head of the military' and in charge of decisions concerning foreign policy. The center-right Republicans are pro-business, a party that has shrunk massively after ruling France for decades. Currently, they hold 61 seats. If there is no majority, the president can name a prime minister from the group with the most seats in the National Assembly. Pre-election polls put the National Rally ahead of Macron's centrist alliance. (Source: dw *)
* Deutsche Welle, the German public, state-owned international broadcaster, headquartered in Bonn, funded by the German federal tax budget.

6:00 AM CEST, June 30, 2024  French voters around the world are casting ballots today in the first round of an exceptional parliamentary election that could put France’s government in the hands of nationalist, 'far-right' forces. Voting began early in France’s overseas territories. Macron called the early election after his party was trounced in the European Parliament election earlier in June by the National Rally. The outcome of the two-round election, which will wrap up July 7, could impact European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine and how France’s nuclear arsenal and global military force are managed. A new coalition on the 'left', the New Popular Front, is posing a challenge to the pro-business Macron and his centrist alliance Together for the Republic. Huge public spending promises by the National Rally and especially the 'left-wing' coalition have shaken markets and ignited worries about France’s heavy debt, already criticized by EU watchdogs. Many French voters are frustrated about inflation and economic concerns, as well as President Macron’s leadership, which they see as arrogant and out-of-touch with their lives. Le Pen’s anti-immigration National Rally party has tapped and fueled that discontent, notably via online platforms like TikTok, and dominated all preelection opinion polls which suggest that the National Rally is gaining support and has a chance at winning a parliamentary majority. In that scenario, Macron would be expected to name 28-year-old National Rally President Bardella as prime minister in an awkward power-sharing system known as “cohabitation.' Macron has said he won’t step down before his presidential term expires in 2027. Cohabitation would weaken him at home and on the world stage. Support for Le Pen’s party has spread deep and wide. The party has questioned the right to citizenship for people born in France, and wants to curtail the rights of French citizens with dual nationality. Bardella says he would use the powers of prime minister to stop Macron from continuing to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine for the war with Russia.
(Source: apnews *)
* The Associated Press - American news agency headquartered in New York City.

(Sunday), June 30, 2024 0:42 AM  Today, French voters will cast ballots in the first round of snap elections for the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, that could lead to the country's first 'far-right' government since the World War II. 'Political, racial tensions are the backdrop'. Citing security concerns, notably in impoverished areas in French suburbs or "banlieues," the 'far-right' National Rally wants to give a specific new legal status to police. If police officers use their arms during an intervention, they would be presumed to have acted in self-defense. Currently police officers have the same legal status as all French citizens and have to prove they acted in self-defense. Yesterday several hundred family members, friends and supporters gathered in the Paris suburb of Nanterre to remember 17-year-old Merzouk, a French teenager with North African origins who was shot dead at point-blank range by a police officer at a traffic check on June 27, 2023. His mother led a silent march to pay homage to her son. For many across France, he was the embodiment of young French Black and North African men who face police checks and discrimination more frequently than their white counterparts. The officer who fired the shot cited self-defense, and an 'extreme-right' figure started a crowdfunding campaign for the policeman that drew $1.6 million. Fueled by TikTok, riots spread with unprecedented speed before a mass police crackdown. The unrest caused, according to French authorities, more than $1 billion in damage. 'My son was executed,' his mother, Mounia, told the crowd. She expressed fear that she might run into the police officer who killed her son and has been released pending further investigation. The march ended at the spot where Merzouk was killed, and an imam sang and read a prayer the day before France's parliamentary elections. (Source: voanews *)
* Voice of America, the state-owned news network and international radio broadcaster of the United States of America. It is headquartered in Washington, D.C.

Germany
29/06/2024 22:24  Members of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party congress in the western city of Essen
reelected Chrupalla and Weidel for another two years as joint party leaders today. Around 600 delegates gathered at an indoor arena. In her opening speech to the conference ahead of the vote, Weidel attacked the governing coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. "Dear government, finally get out of here and clear the way for new elections," she said, before adding that firewalls against the AfD were not necessary. Weidel was referring to the refusal by Germany's mainstream parties to work with the 'far-right' party. Chrupalla, meanwhile, said the AfD was "stronger than ever" after the two leaders had brought peace to the once-divided party. According to him, the AfD now has 46,881 members, 17,723 more than at the beginning of 2023. It's expected that the membership will exceed 50,000 by the fall, he added. Chrupalla was receiving 82.72% support, Weidel received 79.77% of the vote. The AfD is being monitored by the German domestic intelligence agency (BfV) as a suspected right-wing extremist organization. The agency has warned that the party poses a racist, antisemitic and anti-democratic threat to Germany. Earlier today, at around 5:45 AM police used pepper spray and batons to stop a group of protesters breaking through a cordon near where the congress was being held. A few hundred protesters temporarily blocked the exit ramp of a motorway, while others occupied streets and intersections near the congress center. As the delegates voted, crowds gathered outside to protest the party. Several thousand police officers were deployed as part of security measures to prevent civil disorder. In all, some 100,000 protesters were expected to take part in the demos against the AfD. Police feared violence from some 1,000 'leftist' extremists who also planned to demonstrate. Mostly, it was a peaceful protest by members of church congregations, the Fridays for Future [climate movement] and Grandmothers Against the Far Right [Omas gegen Rechts]. Demonstrators, some of them hooded, attacked security forces, injuring 28 officers, one of which was left in a serious condition, injured from kicks to the head, taken to hospital. Police said they made several arrests. 'We need strong democratic forces and peaceful protest against right-wing extremism and racism,' Interior Minister Faeser wrote on X, adding that violence "cannot be justified by anything." The protest had calmed down by mid-afternoon. Despite a series of scandals, the AfD party came second in Germany in the European Parliament elections on June 9 and even took first place in the five eastern states. It's also expected to become the strongest party in September elections in three of those eastern states - Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg - amid fears other parties will not be able to form a governing coalition. The AfD's leaders are also looking to seize on the party's rising popularity, as Germany prepares for federal elections in the fall of 2025. (Source: dw)

June 29, 2024 8:00 PM  The nationalist, Eurosceptic AfD party came second with 15.9% in the European vote this month, ahead of the three parties in Scholz's coalition. AfD membership had grown by 60% to 46,881 members since January 2023, co-chief Chrupalla told nearly 600 delegates at a party convention in the western city of Essen. Some 22,000 people had joined while 4,000 had left. The AfD is on course to form a new political group in the European Parliament - a move which would require 23 MEPs from at least seven EU countries - after being expelled from the Identity and Democracy grouping last month, Weidel said. The congress was held despite resistance from city authorities - marked by the rainbow and EU flags flying on flagpoles outside the convention center - and protesters who sought to prevent AfD delegates from making it there, carriing at an anti-AfD march through the city. The interior ministry estimated some 20,000 people participated in the demonstration. The party congress will run until tomorrow, the same day neighboring France holds the first round of a snap parliamentary election that could bring 'the far right' to power. In discussing the party's policy platform, Weidel said AfD's future allies in the European Parliament should oppose the disbursal of taxpayer money to the "debt states" of Europe - a reference to countries such as Italy and Greece - and the idea that Ukraine belongs to the European Union, after it opened membership talks this week. (Source: voanews / Reuters)

European Union
Sun, 30 Jun, 2024 - 01:00  Just five years ago, young Europeans voted for parties advocating climate action, social justice, and democratic reform. But this may no longer be a viable political strategy. June’s European Parliament elections showed that many young voters have shifted to the 'far right', enabling eurosceptic, anti-immigrant, and anti-establishment parties to make significant gains. This movement is often anti-status quo, serving as a powerful warning to politicians about the need to reconsider both their message and their medium in appealing to disaffected young voters. These voters’ rightward shift is apparent across the European Union. After overwhelmingly supporting the Greens in 2019, 16% of German voters under 25 voted for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in this year’s European elections, putting the party in second place behind the center-right Christian Democrats and well ahead of chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats. By contrast, the 'far-right' Sweden Democrats came in fourth, despite winning 10% of voters aged 22-30. In France, 30% of the youth vote went to Le Pen’s 'far-right' National Rally. This outcome was in line with the 2022 presidential election runoff, when Le Pen won 39% of voters aged 18-24 and 49% of those aged 25-34. 21% of Italian voters aged 18-34 helped prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy win a strong mandate to pursue its agenda. In Spain, the ultra-conservative Vox party increased its share of the youngest voters (under 25) to 12.4%. Europe’s swing to the right has led many politicians to harden their positions on issues like immigration. Young Europeans grapple with a cost-of-living risis and dwindling economic prospects. The growing frustration can be partly attributed to EU politicians’ failure to ensure stable, well-paid jobs for young people. Youth unemployment among Europeans aged 15 to 24 reached 13.8% in 2023. In Spain, the rate was 27.9%, compared to 27.7% in Greece, 20.7% in Italy, and 18.9% in Sweden. Youth unemployment in France was 15.7% in 2023; in the Netherlands 8.7%; in Germany 6%. Support for the 'far right' has increased across the bloc amid growing evidence that no matter how hard they work, most young people will end up poorer than their parents. In many European countries, young people are also navigating a housing crisis, overcrowded classrooms, and struggling healthcare systems. In the face of rising rents, exorbitant tuition fees, and stagnant real wages, young voters are increasingly asking themselves who will address their concerns. 'Far-right' politicians, while blaming immigration, at least recognise that there is a problem, and they are doing so in ways that resonate with younger voters. In the age of platforms like TikTok, veteran politicians mistake social media for a broadcast medium, fail to understand that it can be a powerful tool for fostering engagement, bonding, and identity formation. 'Far-right demagogues' tailor their messaging to young people just as dangerous as those who ignore those platforms entirely. As a generation of young voters spends much of its time on platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram – in the United States, teens spend an average of 4.8 hours per day on social media – the result could be a toxic political cocktail. Many EU policymakers feel increasingly isolated as they try to do their jobs while online groups mobilise against them. To win back disaffected young people, political leaders must offer them a future they can believe in and embrace the media platforms where young people live. (Source: irishexaminer *)
by Woods, Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.
* Irish Examiner, an Irish national daily newspaper, headquartered in Cork, Republic of Ireland.

Russia
(Saturday ), 29/06/2024 - 22:16  Russian officials reported Ukrainian attacks. The Russian Defense Ministry said that six Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight over the country’s Tver, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, as well as over the Crimean Peninsula. It didn't give information on the reported strike in the Kursk region where a strike was killing five people in the village of Gorodishche on the Russian-Ukrainian border. The Belarusian military was saying it had increased its forces along Ukraine’s northern border in response to what it described as security threats - Belarus’ border agency claimed its troops downed a Ukrainian drone that had flown across the border to gather intelligence. Kyiv denied the accusations. The Ukrainian air force said today that it had downed 10 Russian drones overnight. Russia continues to stretch out Ukrainian forces in several areas along the 1,000-kilometer front and has stepped up airstrikes in a bid to drain Ukraine’s resources. Rescuers in the city of Dnipro dug through rubble after a Russian strike ripped through a nine-story residential building, leaving one dead and 12 wounded. The strike destroyed the top four floors of the apartment building yesterday evening. Several residents remained missing. Seven people were killed today afternoon in Russian shelling on the town of Vilniansk, ten people were wounded, while infrastructure was also damaged. The shelling of the village of Niu-York in the Donetsk region also wounded five people. (Source: france24 / AP)

North America

United States
(Sunday), 07:15 BST, 30 June 2024  Allies within the Democratic Party acknowledged the difficulty Biden had in getting words out at this week's event in Atlanta, Georgia, some warning there was "panic" in the party as others suggested it was time for change. Biden, 81, refused to stand down after his performance on Thursday night, urging that in spite of his age he still knew how to do the job and would defend American democracy. Trump, 78, has threatened to cut spending, raised questions over the future of NATO and ominously said he could end the war in 'one day' if elected. Biden, has backed Ukraine with billions of dollars in military and humanitarian aid since 2022. 'As far as Russia and Ukraine, if we had a real president, a president that knew – that was respected by Putin, he would have never – he would have never invaded Ukraine,' Trump claimed during the debate. He said Biden had given '$200 billion now or more to Ukraine'. Reuters reported earlier this week that two advisers close to Trump have presented him with a plan to end the war that involves threatening to withhold weapons unless Ukraine enters into peace talks with Russia. 'European allies call on Democrats to axe Biden following disastrous debate amid fears a win for Trump could impact support for Ukraine'. There is growing concern that if Trump is re-elected, support for Ukraine may too dry up. 'American democracy killed before our eyes by gerontocracy!' said Verhofstadt, a member of the European parliament and a former prime minister of Belgium. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz previously cheered on Biden's prospects for re-election. A spokesperson for Scholz did not comment on the specifics of the debate, but said the chancellor valued Biden highly and had never spoken to Trump as their terms did not overlap. 'Biden can't do it,' said Matteo Renzi, a centrist who was close to the Democrats while serving as Italy's prime minister. 'It's important to manage one's ride into the sunset,' foreign affairs minister for Poland, Sikorski, wrote in a cryptic reflection on legendary Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius' 'screwed up' succession, 'starting Rome's decline'. /videos/ (Source: dailymail *)
* Daily Mail, a British daily newspaper, published in London.

(Sunday), Jun 30, 2024 09:44 IST  Biden expected to discuss campaign future with family today, NBC News reported. A person familiar with the situation said he will ultimately listen only to his wife, Jill, 'who has ultimate influence with him'. White House denies Biden dropping out of race. And the family gathering is not a formal discussion about the campaign's future. Biden reassures supporters, campaign sees surge in fundraising. His campaign has reported a surge in fundraising, with over $27 million raised by Friday evening, including $3 million at a New York City fundraiser focused on the LGBTQ+ community. (Source: indiatoday *)
* India Today, a weekly Indian English-language news magazine, based in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

Jun 30, 2024 08:26 AM IST  First Lady Jill's public support for President Biden has sparked controversy among Democrats. She is now under scrutiny from Democratic donors for not advising the President to withdraw from the 2024 race. They are now advocating for a change in presidential candidacy. Seemingly joining the chorus of people slamming her for pushing the prez for rerun, now Jill's ex-husband, Stevenson, expressed disappointment, suggesting that she has changed a lot. 'The Dr. Jill I've seen on TV in the last five years is not the same person I married or even recognize,' Stevenson remarked. Stevenson who was married to the First Lady from 1970 to 1975 added: “She’s matriculated into a completely different woman”. 'I just don’t understand why she is so adamant about defending him and keeping him in the race since it appears that he’s struggling.' After praising his ex-wife’s former abilities and recalling how he watched her grow, he expressed his disbelief to see her 'front and center in the middle of this battle.' 'People say she’s the one who wants to be president now,' he said. In 2020, as Biden embarked on his campaign for the presidency, he leveled allegations against Biden, accusing him of being a ‘home wrecker.’ The First Lady's ex-husband once supported Biden in his bid for a seat in the US Senate in 1972. He previously alleged that Jill and Biden's relationship began while she was still married to him in 1974. (Source: hindustantimes *)
* Hindustan Times, an Indian English-language daily newspaper based in Delhi.

(Sunday), 30 Jun, 2024 06:43  Private call of top Democrats fuels more insider anger about Biden’s debate performance. In the Friday’s debate the president, who already faced serious concerns about his physical and mental stamina, offered a performance punctuated by repeated stumbles, uncomfortable pauses and a quiet speaking style that was often difficult to understand. Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman Harrison and Biden campaign manager Rodriguez largely ignored Biden’s weak showing and the avalanche of criticism that followed when they held a call which spanned roughly an hour with dozens of committee members across the country, a group of some of the most influential members of the party. The call may have worsened a widespread sense of panic among elected officials, donors and other stakeholders, multiple committee members on the call said. Harrison offered what they described as a rosy assessment of Biden’s path forward, the people said. The chat function was disabled and there were no questions allowed. Biden’s closest allies insist he remains well-positioned to compete against Republican Trump and have given no indication they will push him to end his campaign. Those best positioned to replace him - US Vice-President Harris, California governor Newsom and Michigan governor Whitmer among them - reiterated their support for Biden after the debate. After Saturday’s DNC call, the Biden campaign released a memo from senior adviser O’Malley Dillon insisting the debate had no tangible impact on the election. “On every metric that matters, data shows it did nothing to change the American people’s perception, our supporters are more fired up than ever, and Trump only reminded voters of why they fired him four years ago and failed to expand his appeal beyond his Maga base,' O’Malley Dillon wrote. “If we do see changes in polling in the coming weeks, it will not be the first time that overblown media narratives have driven temporary dips in the polls,” she added. 'This should not be a close race,' Salazar, an elected DNC member from Colorado who was on the call said, pointing to Trump’s criminal record and long history of falsehoods. 'They’re the ones who should be looking for a new nominee, not us. And unfortunately for us, because of our president’s performance on Thursday night, that is now an open discussion.' (Source: nzherald *)
* The New Zealand Herald, a daily newspaper, headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand

(Saturday), 29 June 2024, 13:22  Supporters - party donors and congressmen - have called on the 81-year-old Biden to abandon his run for re-election to the presidency after appearing frozen and muddling his words multiple times during the first head-to-head TV debate of the 2024 election campaign against his opponent Trump, who was widely acknowledged the winner of the debate. He is facing calls from a number of Democratic strategists, donors and politicians to suspend his campaign in favour of a younger candidate at this year’s party convention in August. Biden given 'one week to stand down' by Democrats despite Obama defending US President. One congressman told Yglesias, a US political blogger: 'I think the president has one week to prove he is not dead.' Axelrod, who was a top White House and campaign official for former President Obama, said: 'How his voice sounded. He seemed a little disoriented. There are going to be discussions about whether he should continue.' Buell, a well-known Democratic donor, said: “Do we have time to put somebody else in there?” Current Democrat officials and politicians have publicly rallied around Biden despite his poor performance. Addressing Thursday’s debate, Mr Biden went on the offensive as he told the crowds: “I don't know what you did last night, but I spent 90 minutes on a stage debating with a guy who has the morals of an alley cat.' The President has clapped back at criticism and taken to the stand at a rally in North Carolina. Mr Biden was met with chants of “four more years” - less than 24 hours after his presidential debate had been labelled ‘disastrous’. He then hit out at Mr Trump's conviction from last month's hush money trial, as he said Trump isn't just a convicted felon, 'Trump is a one-man crime wave." He has 'more trials coming up', he then added. The US president also addressed concerns expressed by voters about his age after some of his recent appearances. He had been told he has a week to win over the Democrats before they try and get rid of him in the first presidential debate. He said: “Folks, I don't walk as easy as I used to, I don't speak as smoothly as I used to. I don't debate as well as I used to. "But I know what I do know. I know how to tell the truth, I know right from wrong. “I know like millions of Americans know - when you get knocked down you get back up.” He also added: “I wouldn’t be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job because the stakes are too high.” It comes after Mr Biden appeared to forget what he was trying to say on several occasions during the debate, and at times spoke incomprehensibly. It did not take long for Mr Biden to lose his train of thought, as he suddenly started speaking about Medicare as he made a point about taxing billionaires before appearing to freeze. Former President Obama has also weighed in on the matter saying "Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know." "It would be difficult and very unusual for the Democrats to find a new nominee ahead of the convention, which begins on August 19". The convention is when the party officially chooses its nominee ahead of the actual election in November. (Source: lbc *)
* LBC News, a rolling news radio station based in the United Kingdom.

06/29/2024 07:00 AM EDT  Amid all of the Democratic panic-texting prompted by President Biden’s shaky debate performance Thursday, one name was curiously absent from many of those conversations: Vice President Harris. Names including California Gov. Newsom and Michigan Gov. Whitmer trended online as potential replacements for Biden on the Democratic ticket, while Harris - by several measures the most obvious and best-positioned candidate - was left to publicly defend Biden at the single worst moment of their four-year-old political partnership. Some allies of the first Black and South Asian woman to be vice president fumed Friday about the lack of attention Harris drew as a possible replacement - not a surrogate - for Biden, passed over in the Beltway chatter for the likes of Newsom, Whitmer and even Govs. Pritzker of Illinois and Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Her best strategy is to internally just be an amazing VP. She quickly made clear to her staff that they shouldn’t try to sugarcoat how badly her running mate had performed. Harris told her advisers her role was simple: project confidence as quickly and clearly as possible as a leader of the party, while preserving credibility by recognizing how weak the debate had been. Harris’ other two objectives were to zero in on attacking Trump and move the conversation away from the debate and toward Biden’s record. Harris, despite a rocky couple of years in the polls, still has the highest name ID of any plausible Biden replacement. A recent poll found that 41 percent of Democratic voters chose Harris as a hypothetical 2028 nominee. The next closest was Transportation Secretary Buttigieg, with 15 percent, and Newsom, with 14 percent. Were Biden to leave the presidential race, only Harris would have access to the coffers of the campaign she’s already a part of. Any other candidate would be faced with the tall task of building an infrastructure in a matter of months. Harris’ allies are not shy about pointing out the optics of substituting any other candidate (likely White, possibly male) for Harris — a move that they suggest would upset not only Black delegates at the convention but also Black voters with whom the Biden campaign is already on shaky ground. Still, she faces skepticism from the Democratic rank-and-file, who have been repelled by Harris’ weak polling numbers and see any of the more-popular-if-lesser-known governors as preferable - someone up who would not only be a good president, but be a good candidate. (Source: politico*)
* Politico, an American political digital newspaper. Headquarters Arlington County, Virginia, U.S.

.4 6 30 13:14

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2024. VI. 28. Bulgaria, France, European Commission, European Council, Iraq, United States, NATO

2024.06.29. 21:42 Eleve

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Europe

Bulgaria
28 June 2024 
Bulgarian president won’t attend NATO summit, disagrees with support for Ukraine. Radev “does not accept some provisions of the framework positions adopted by the Council of Ministers regarding commitments that our country undertakes regarding the war in Ukraine,” his press office said. Due to the political crisis, Bulgaria is currently without a regular government, and the caretaker prime minister is Dimitar Glavchev, a former deputy from the largest GERB (EPP) party. This caretaker position is appointed by the president, who is given greater representative power. Radev was elected by the parliament (and by the government) to lead the delegation in Washington, but in light of his refusal, Glavchev, also foreign minister, will attend. He has long opposed sending military aid to Ukraine and often talks about how Western military support hinders the achievement of peace. Similarly, the president has opposed the decision to allow Western weapons to fire on Russian territory, repeatedly accusing NATO of fuelling the conflict and of crossing “red lines that would have kept the war from spiralling out of control'. (Source: euractiv)

France
28 June 2024  Nation-state or Islamic Republic
of France, Houellebecq’s question. Nine years ago, Houellebecq wrote Submission, wich not only describes contemporary France in an eerily naturalistic and politically-incorrect manner, but also makes a dystopian prophecy: that the French progressive fixation in favour of Islam and against traditional and national values will one day lead to France becoming an Islamic republic. He even describes 'exactly' how such a thing will happen. In the fictional second round of the 2022 Presidential Elections, writes Houellebecq, le Pen faces a Muslim opponent. With the support of the socialists, the liberals and the Left, France’s Islamist Party sweeps to power. Islamic law is then enforced, women are side-lined from professional and public office posts, universities are shut down and conversion to Islam is encouraged. What the author is suggesting is that French ruling elites hate their nation’s conservative values and ethnic tradition so much that they would prefer to see their country embrace the Sharia, rather than re-establish itself as a European nation-state. Earlier this week Macron spoke of a “civil war' if the far Right wins. Muslim extremists recently warned that 'all hell will break loose' if the National Rally comes to govern France. Is France in danger of being politically taken over by Islamists? Houellebecq himself has often been accused of bigotry. In fact, he is one of France’s top “love to hate” figures. He is despised, mocked and ridiculed on a regular basis. In 2010, his earlier novel, La Carte et le Territoire, won the prestigious Prix Goncourt. On January 7 2015, the day when Submission was published in France, Charlie Hebdo, a French satirical weekly magazine, came out with a front page caricature of the author, making fun of him and his predictions. On that same day the magazine’s offices were attacked by two French-born Algerian Muslim brothers, who murdered 12 people and injured 11 others. /photo/ (Source: brusselssignal)

European Commission
3:45 AM CEST, June 28, 2024 The 65-year-old German politician
von der Leyen, the 62-year-old socialist, former prime minister of Portugal Costa and the 47-year-old lawyer, Estonian staunch supporter of Ukraine Kallas were endorsed by 'European Union leaders' for the EU’s top jobs the European Council with the final nominee.    Von der Leyen's second term now needs to be approved by European lawmakers in a vote likely to take place in July. She has been 'praised' for her leading role during the COVID-19 crisis, when the EU bought vaccines collectively for its citizens, but she also found herself receiving sharp criticism for the opacity of the negotiations with vaccine makers. She has also embodied the EU’s plans to become climate neutral by 2050, but her commitment to the Green Deal policies has been questioned in the buildup to the European elections as the EU seemed cautious not to antagonize farmers who argued that EU environmental and climate laws were driving them toward bankruptcy.    The Socialists came in second place and Costa’s choice was controversial because of his government’s involvement in a widespread corruption investigation that forced him to resign as prime minister last year. Costa denies any wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime.    Kallas was chosen despite the liberal group she belongs to losing ground in the European elections, slipping to fourth place behind the 'far-right' ECR.    Like von der Leyen, Kallas 'must' also be confirmed by the EU Parliament. (Source: apnews)

European Council
June 28, 2024   Yesterday, European Union signed security commitments with Ukraine and disburses new €1.9 billion under the Ukraine Facility. President of the European Council Michel, President of the European Commission von der Leyen, and President Zelensky signed the document on the margins of the European Council, which is taking place in Brussels on 27 and 28 June. The commitments include following chapters: long-term provision of military equipment; EU and Ukraine’s defence industries corporation; resilience, cyber and hybrid threats; military and civilian mine action; civilian security sector reform and support to law enforcement; preventing and countering the diversion of firearms and small arms and light weapons; support to energy security, energy transition, and nuclear safety and security; sharing intelligence and satellite imagery. Concerning the provision of the military equipment, the document says that with the creation of the Ukraine Assistance Fund within the European Peace Facility, the European Union will continue to support the provision of both lethal and non-lethal military equipment and training to Ukraine. 'Building on the EU and bilateral initiatives on ammunition, notably the 1 million rounds initiative, missiles and air defence, the European Union and Member States will speed up and intensify the delivery of all the necessary military assistance. The Ukraine Assistance Fund will have a budget of €5 billion for 2024,' as noted in the commitments. Von der Leyen also announced on X that the EU will disburse a new €1.9 billion to Ukraine under the Ukraine Facility, to keep the Ukrainian state running. (Source: euneighbourseast)

Asia

Iraq
Jun. 28 (2024)  'Yemen’s Armed Forces and Iraq’s anti-terror fighters - Iraq’s Islamic Resistance, which is an umbrella group of anti-terror fighters' - have carried out a fresh joint anti-Israeli operation, targeting the port of Haifa. The Armed Forces and the Iraqi fighters have been staging numerous anti-Israeli strikes, either separately or in cooperation with one another, 'since last October, when the Israeli regime began a genocidal war against the Gaza Strip'. It vowed that the forces would continue their operations in the Red and Arabian Seas as well as the Indian Ocean as long as the Israeli regime kept up the brutal military onslaught and a simultaneous siege that it has been enforcing against Gaza. (Source: mehrnews)

North America

United States
Jun. 28, 2024 6:43AM EDT  For the sake of the United States, Dr. Jill must step up now to help oust her husband. 'The threat of a second Trump presidency is enormous, far bigger than most Americans seem to grasp - Trump is scheming on a radical executive power-grab which could put everything from the Fed to control of the media in his hands, while he also promises vast human rights abuses, an end to a freedom-and-democracy-pursuing liberal international order, and a series of economic plans that would radically drive up prices and plunge the nation into financial free-fall. It’s no exaggeration to say that a second Trump presidency could mean everything from the termination of abortion rights nationwide, to deportation camps for immigrants, to the end of America as a beacon of economic and political stability, to the rise of global autocratic and imperialist power from Russia, China, and other dangerous actors'. (Source: thedailybeast)
by 'Filipovic'

June 28, 2024  The US has refused to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, instead believing that strengthening sanctions and imposing export restrictions is a more effective way to slow down Moscow’s war machine, US State Department spokesman Miller told on June 24. This position contrasts sharply with the efforts of some US senators who have been advocating for Russia to be designated as a state sponsor of terrorism. In particular, on June 20, Senators Graham and Blumenthal introduced a bill to the Senate as a means. President Biden previously decided against designating Russia as a state sponsor of terror in September 2022, following a unanimous resolution passed by the US Senate in July 2022, which called for such a designation. (Source: intellinews)

June 28, 2024  Marine Corps Order 5231.4 outlines the service’s approach to AI. The Marine Corps has pursued a two-track model with innovation at the lowest levels and resources at the highest. Bridging the gap between these parallel efforts will be critical to meaningful progress. "Only incremental progress has been made'. "The service is slow in moving towards its goals because it has decided, de facto, to pursue a two-track development strategy". It has concentrated efforts and resources at the highest echelons of the institution while relying on the rare confluence of expertise and individual initiative for progress at the lowest levels. "Every day, thousands of marines perform routine data-collection tasks and make hundreds of data-based decisions. They compile manning data on whiteboards to decide to staff units, screenshot weather forecasts and paste them into weekly commander’s update briefings, and submit training entries by hand. But anyone who has used ChatGPT or other large-scale data analytic services in the last two years knows the immense power of generative AI to streamline these processes and improve the quality of these decisions by basing them on fresh and comprehensive data. The U.S. Marine Corps has finally caught wind. Gen. Smith’s new message calls for the service to recognize that '[t]echnology has exponentially increased information’s effects on the modern battlefield, making our need to exploit data more important than ever.” The service’s stand-in forces operating concept relies on marine operating forces to integrate into networks of sensors, using automation and machine learning to simplify decision processes and kill chains. Forces deployed forward in littoral environments will be sustained by a supply system that uses data analysis for predictive maintenance, identifying which repair parts the force will need in advance'. 'Beyond education and planning, AI and machine learning can transform how the Marine Corps fights. During an operation, AI could employ a networked collection of manned and unmanned systems to reconnoiter and attack an adversary. It could also synthesize and display data from sensor networks more quickly than human analysts or sift through thousands of images to identify particular scenes or locations of interest. Either algorithms can decide themselves or enable commanders to make data-informed decisions in previously unthinkable ways. From AI-enabled decision-making to enhanced situational awareness, this technology has the potential to revolutionize military operations. A team of think tank researchers even used AI recently to rethink the Unified Command Plan. But, achieving these futuristic visions will require the service to develop technical skills and familiarity with this technology before implementing it'. "Marines in the operating forces perform innumerable routine tasks that could be easily automated. For example, marines in staff sections grab data and format it into weekly command and staff briefings each week. Intelligence officers retrieve weather forecast data from their higher headquarters. Supply officers insert information supply levels into the brief. Medical and dental readiness numbers are usually displayed in a green/yellow/red stoplight chart. This data is compiled - by hand - in PowerPoint slide decks. These simple tasks could be automated, saving thousands of hours across an entire Marine expeditionary force. Commanders would benefit by making decisions based on the most up-to-date information rather than relying on stale data captured hours before'. "The Army’s use of the 18th Airborne Corps to bridge the gap between service-level programs and individual initiatives offers a clear example for how to do so. The 18th Airborne Corps fills a contingency-response role like the Marine Corps. Located at Fort Liberty, it is the headquarters element containing the 101st and 82nd Airborne Divisions, along with the 10th Mountain and 3rd Infantry Divisions. As part of a broader modernization program, the 18th Airborne Corps has focused on creating a technology ecosystem to foster innovation. Individual soldiers across the corps can build personal applications that aggregate, analyze, and present information in customizable dashboards that streamline work processes and allow for data-informed decision-making". If the Marine Corps followed the 18th Airborne Corps model, it would designate one operating force unit as the service lead for data analysis and automation to link service headquarters with tactical units. Once designated, II Marine Expeditionary Force should establish an office, directorate, or company responsible for the entire force’s data literacy and automation effort. The Marine Corps should build the groundwork by training its workforce and building familiarity during garrison operations. Designating one major command to act as the service lead would go a long way toward accomplishing that goal. (Source: warontherocks)
by McGee, an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserves, currently serving with the Marine Innovation Unit.

NATO
28 June 2024  'If Russia is not punished for what they are doing, then there will be a pause of one, two years, and then everything will continue: the atrocities, the human suffering, everything.” Kallas adds that it will not just be Ukraine at risk of an emboldened Putin. 'I mean other countries around Russia. Moldova… The imperialistic dream has never died.' Few doubt that Estonia could be a prime target in such a situation. In 1949 her mother (then six months old), her grandmother and her great-grandmother were all sent to Siberia under Stalin’s mass deportations of Baltic citizens who were deemed “anti-Soviet”. “It was a stranger who gave my grandmother a jar of milk that kept my mother alive during this journey,” she told the European Parliament in a speech on 9 March. Her father, Siim, oversaw the country’s shift to democratic capitalism as president of the Bank of Estonia in the 1990s, and served as prime minister between 2002 and 2003 before becoming a European Commissioner. Baltic leader Kallas studied law and economics and worked as a lawyer before she was elected to the European Parliament for the liberal Estonian Reform Party in 2014. She returned to Tallinn to head the Reform Party, winning a leadership election in April 2018, and became Estonia’s female prime minister in January 2021, at the helm of a coalition with the centre-left Estonian Centre Party. Her government sent lethal weapons to Kyiv as early as December 2021. (After February 2022) her government accelerated its transfer of arms to Ukraine, sending FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles and artillery such as D-30 howitzers. She told European lawmakers: “We will, in the future, speak about ‘before times’ and ‘after times’.” The leader of a country with a population about the same size as Birmingham’s she has been cited 11,560 times in the international media in the two months from 1 March to 2 May. Kallas will be among the Nato leaders at the alliance’s landmark summit. What needs to happen there? 'We need the deterrence posture to turn into a defence posture,' she replies. This means a shift from warding Russia off an attack on Nato to being capable of preventing it from taking Nato territory at short notice. She specifies that this requires a division-level Nato presence in each Baltic state (a significant increase in troops from those already present, led by the UK in Estonia), more intelligence sharing and a shift from air policing to air defence. “Where now they just fly up and say ‘You can’t fly here’, air defence means that if someone comes into our airspace, we have a right to take them down as well.' She attributes to Putin the notion that 'if Russia can’t become the West, then the West must become Russia'. The Kremlin, argues Estonia’s prime minister, will continue trying to undermine Western unity through cyber threats and by promoting myths about morally corrupt and 'anti-family liberal' societies. (Source: newstatesman)
by 'Cliffe

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2024. VI. 17. Európai Unió. Kallas-póz.

2024.06.17. 14:37 Eleve

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2024. VI. 17.  Bájos? 'Üldözött boszorkány', miután kiderült: bankár férje az ellentett pályán üzletel haszonnal. A legutóbbi választásokon a földrész-szerte vesztes liberális pártcsaládok eszmekörében ténykedik. Országukban négy állampolgárból három vallástalannak vallja magát.  Lakosságuk száma alig 1 300 000 - egyharmaduk szláv anyanyelvű. Habár védelmi erejük alig több mint 2 300 (kétezer háromszáz) katonából áll, ő maga tetemes katonai szövetségi költekezések szóbeli kezdeményezője. Illy ellentmondásokkal terhelten, tengerentúli elftársai is jónak látnák hát őt az EU külpolitikai és 'védelmi' biztosának. Háborús uszító.

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Címkék: európaiunió

2024. VI. 7. Magyarország. Orosz-ukrán háborúról, választás tétjéről, reptér visszavásárlásáról Orbán Viktor miniszterelnök

2024.06.08. 15:51 Eleve

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Interjú Orbán Viktor miniszterelnökkel

orosz-ukrán háborúról, választás tétjéről, reptér visszavásárlásáról;

 a Kossuth Rádió Jó reggelt, Magyarország! című műsorában

- hangzóanyag -

 Források:

- (soundcloud):

https://tinyurl.com/3tea4jpz

- (hirado / Kossuth Rádió):

https://tinyurl.com/hutwycj6

 

Kulcsszavak:

I. világháború    II. világháború    Afrika    Egyesült Államok    Európa    Európai Parlament    Európai Unió    Franciaország    hangzóanyag    Katar    Kína    Kuba    Liszt Ferenc Nemzetközi Repülőtér    Magyarország    NATO    Németország    Oroszország    Szlovákia    Ukrajna
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Címkék: afrika kína magyarország franciaország szlovákia ukrajna németország oroszország európa nato kuba katar európaiunió európaiparlament egyesültállamok elsővilágháború másodikvilágháború hangzóanyag lsztferencnemzetközirepülőtér

Danube photos

2024.06.07. 19:50 Eleve

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2024. VI. 7. A Duna Budapestnél. Árad

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Danube photos

2024.06.07. 19:22 Eleve

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Budapest, 2024. VI. 7. A Duna Budapestnél. Árad

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Danube photos

2024.06.06. 20:56 Eleve

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2024. VI. 6. A Duna Budapestnél árad. Budai alsó rakpart lezár

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Danube photos

2024.06.06. 16:48 Eleve

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2024. VI. 6. A Duna Budapestnél. Árad

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2024. VI. 5. Szlovákia. Fico Robert kormányfő: "Tudom, kik és miért lőttek le" (teljes beszéde, magyar szinkronnal)

2024.06.06. 14:40 Eleve

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 "Tudom, kik és miért lőttek le" - közli Fico Robert, szlovák miniszterelnök

- video -

(magyar szinkronnal, angol nyelvű felirattal)

(Forrás: YouTube / Hetek)

https://tinyurl.com/m45wpcye

 

(2024. VI. 8.-ig: 42 710 megtekintés.

Kulcsszavak:

Európai Unió    Irak    Kína    Magyarország    NATO    Oroszország    Szlovákia    Ukrajna    Visegrádi országok

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Címkék: kína video magyarország szlovákia ukrajna irak oroszország nato európaiunió visegrádiországok

2024. VI. 4. Ukraine

2024.06.05. 12:59 Eleve

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Ukraine
June 4, 2024  Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, is starting to get upset. On June 2, he gave an interview to the Guardian newspaper in which he said Trump risks becoming a 'loser president' if he cuts military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, if Trump imposes what Zelensky called a "bad peace deal" on Ukraine, it would mean the end of the United States as a 'global actor." According to Zelensky, the United States "will no longer be the leader of the world." This is what the former comedian says, who became the president of Ukraine due to a strange election in 2019. He doesn't have a lot of international geopolitical experience on his CV, but Zelenskyy has a go. Trump leads the polls in November. Zelensky is taking a risk, but he knows what the alternative is - Zelensky is trying to drag the United States into direct war with Russia. The Ukrainians actually attacked a massive radar installation (and possibly a second one) deep inside Russia that is part of the ballistic nuclear early warning network. A Ukrainian 'intelligence officer' bragged to Western media in a cavalier tone of someone who had no idea what he was talking about: 'Those radars were Russia's eyes, and we at least partially shut them down." This Ukrainian does not understand what this means. Attacking the early warning system of any nuclear power plant is highly destabilizing, as it can be interpreted as preparation for a nuclear strike. Then when the next administration takes over, there will be no chance of negotiation; those radars, Russia's eyes, will act against US forces. After November, the Biden administration doesn't care. But Ukraine would be a stupid war for America. It is stupid for America in the same way that most wars since the end of the Cold War have been stupid. These were wars of choice, not wars of necessity. And Zelensky drags America into the war - or Zelensky loses. Washington must tell the small bantam cockerel, big attitude, that he must learn to negotiate peace or he will end up in a stew pot. (Source: brusselssignal)

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Címkék: russia ukraine unitedstates

Danube photos

2024.06.04. 20:46 Eleve

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2024. VI. 4. A Duna Budapestnél. Árad

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Danube photos

2024.06.04. 16:03 Eleve

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 2024. VI. 4. Magyarország. A Duna Budapestnél. Árad

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Danube photos

2024.05.12. 19:36 Eleve

 

2024. V. 12. 1736 UT. A napszél sebessége 919 km/s.

Solar wind speed 919 km/s.

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Danube photos

2024.05.12. 05:00 Eleve

 

Budapest, 2024. V. 12. 0300 UT Napszél sebessége 820 km/s körül. Fény, északon

Solat wind speed about 820 km/s. Light in the north.

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Danube photos

2024.05.11. 20:54 Eleve

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Budapest, 2024. V. 11. 1854 UT. A napszél sebessége 830 km/s körül.

Solar wind speed about 830 km/s.

4 5 15

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Danube photos

2024.05.11. 20:44 Eleve

 

Budapest, 2024. V. 11. 1844 UT. A napszél sebessége 830 km/s körül.

Solar wind speed about 830 km/s.

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Danube photos

2024.05.10. 20:39 Eleve

 

Budapest, 2024. V. 10. 1839 UT. A napszél sebessége 730 km/s körül.

Solar wind speed around 730 km/s.

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Danube photos

2024.05.10. 20:01 Eleve

 

Budapest, 2024. V. 10. 1801 UT  A napszél sebessége 710 km/s  körül.

Solar wind speed about 710 km/s.

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Danube photos

2024.04.01. 15:21 Eleve

 

Vácrátót, 2024. IV. 1., Húsvéthétfő. Nárcisz. 'Narcissus Hungarian Rhapsody'

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Címkék: tavasz magyarország ünnep hungary photos virág fényképek

Danube photos

2024.03.31. 18:39 Eleve

 

Budapest, 2024. III. 31. Húsvétvasárnap        ©

A légben némi szaharai porral.

 

4 4 1 12:08

 

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Danube photos

2024.03.30. 16:48 Eleve

 

Budapest, 2024. III. 30, Nagyszombat.

 

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2024. III. 20. Európai Unió. Macron-póz

2024.03.20. 23:24 Eleve

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Háborús uszító. Ferdítve ült a lovon. 

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Címkék: európaiunió

2024. I. 30. Magyarország. Orbán Viktor interjú / Le Point

2024.01.31. 18:20 Eleve

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Magyarország
(Kedd), 2024.01.30.  Berretta: - Másfél hónapja nyomást gyakorolnak Önre az európai partnerei, hogy fogadjon el egy 50 milliárd euro-s segélyezési tervet Ukrajna számára az európai költségvetésből. Csütörtökön mit fog javasolni?
- Semmi nem változott. Tehát a magyar álláspont továbbra is egyértelmű: ahogy telik az idő, továbbra is úgy gondoljuk, hogy az ukrajnai háborúnak nincs katonai megoldása. Sajnos a 26 másik fél még mindig úgy gondolja, hogy van katonai megoldás. Az ő javaslatuk a katonai megoldás irányába mutat, amit én nem támogatok. És a magyaroknak sem tetszik. Mi úgy gondoljuk, hogy az egyetlen megoldás a diplomáciai megoldás. Ez tűzszünetet és béketárgyalásokat jelent. Ebben az összefüggésben arra kérnek bennünket, hogy négy év alatt 50 milliárd euro-t adjunk Ukrajnának. Mivel számunkra nem tetszik a háború eszkalálódása, és nem gondoljuk, hogy a megoldás a csatatéren születik, nem tetszik nekünk ez a javaslat. Jogunk van nem egyetérteni, mert van egy költségvetésünk az Európai Unióban, ami három évvel ezelőtt lett elfogadva a többi országgal együtt, beleértve Magyarországot. Ez az európai költségvetés olyan alap, amelyet mások most meg akarnak változtatni. Úgy gondolom, hogy az Európai Unió minden tagjának joga van megvédeni a költségvetés azon változatát, ahogyan azt létrehozták. Ez egy nagyon is európai álláspont, mivel ezt az európai költségvetést 27 tagállam fogadta el. Az alapvető kérdés ebben az esetben a szuverenitás kérdése. Magyarország, mint szuverén állam ellenzi a költségvetésnek ezt a módosítását. Sajnos egy független országnak ezt a jogát a 26-ok nem fogadják el. Ezért próbálnak minket meggyőzni, majd ezután nyomást gyakorolni, majd zsarolni, hogy rákényszerítsenek, hogy csatlakozzunk hozzájuk. Nagyon nehéz egyedül maradni ebben a családban. Az Európai Unió vagy még inkább az európai egység támogatójaként osztom azt a nézetet, hogy az európai egység érték. Magyarország nem szívesen él a vétójogával, és szavaz mások ellen, mert megértjük, hogy az egység érték. Tehát ez a nagy kihívás, amivel mindannyian szembesülünk: hogyan kerüljünk ki ebből a helyzetből?
- Ön tett egy ajánlatot szombaton…
- Úgy döntöttünk, hogy egy kompromisszumos ajánlatot teszünk: rendben, nem értünk egyet a költségvetés módosításával. Nem értünk egyet azzal, hogy 50 milliárd euro-t kelljen adnunk, ami egy óriási összeg. Nem értünk egyet azzal, hogy ezt négy évre kellene biztosítanunk, és így tovább. De legyen, Magyarország kész részt venni a 27-ek megoldásában, ha garantálják, hogy minden évben döntünk arról, hogy továbbra is küldjük-e ezt a pénzt, vagy sem. És ennek az évenkénti döntésnek ugyanolyan jogalapja kell, hogy legyen, mint ma: egyhangúnak kell lennie. Sajnos ezt az álláspontot egyes országok úgy értik vagy értelmezik, mint egy eszközt arra, hogy minden évben megzsarolják őket.
- Önnek van egy bizonyos múltja ezen a téren…
- A mi álláspontunk az, hogy ez nem a vétóval való zsarolásáról szól, hanem az Európai Unió egységének helyreállításáról és fenntartásáról. Tehát ha valakit arra kényszerítünk, hogy részese legyen valaminek, amit nem szeret, és joga van ahhoz, hogy ne legyen részese, de rá nyomást gyakoroltak, őt kényszerítették bármilyen módon, hogy részese legyen, akkor tisztességes és észszerű, hogy minden évben lehetőséget adjunk neki arra, hogy részt vegyen a döntésben, hogy ez folytatódjon-e, vagy sem. Ez lenne a kompromisszum. Ez a mi álláspontunk.
- És hogyan fogadják jelenleg a javaslatát? Scholz kancellár például?
- Ha jól értem, a fogadtatás a Financial Times-ban jelent meg… Szóval nem éppen pozitív a visszhangja.
- A Financial Times hétfőn valóban közölt egy cikket, amelyben azt állították, hogy az unió vétó esetén úgy büntethetné a magyar gazdaságot, hogy megtagadná Magyarországtól az európai kifizetéseket, ami hatással lenne az Önök országába irányuló befektetésekre és a valutára. Hallott már ilyen tervről?
- Ez egyfajta zsarolási útmutató. Röviden összefoglalva: azt mondják, hogyha szuverén országként viselkedünk, akkor Magyarországot azonnal hatalmas pénzügyi blokád alá veszik, és összekötik az ukrán kérdést a jogállamisággal. A kettőnek semmi köze egymáshoz! Hogy akkor Magyarországon armageddon lenne. Ez áll a Financial Times által közzétett dokumentumban. A dokumentum hitelességében nem kételkedem. Brüsszelt ismerve képesek rá.
- Az Európai Tanács egyik magas rangú tisztviselője a közzététel után egyfajta cáfolatot adott ki, mondván, hogy ez egy Magyarország gazdasági helyzetéről szóló feljegyzés volt, amelyet a tanács főtitkárságának felelőssége mellett készítettek. Nem tudjuk pontosan, hogy miről van szó, de a tanács egyfajta korrekciót tesz közzé…
- Mindannyiunknak van némi tapasztalatunk a nemzetközi politikában. Nem az óvodából jöttünk ki. Ha a Financial Times közöl egy dokumentumot, amiben részletesen leírják a Magyarország elleni pénzügyi blokád és a velünk szembeni zsarolás forgatókönyvét, akkor biztosak lehetünk abban, hogy létezik ilyen. Megértem, hogy ezt a többieknek milyen nehéz elfogadni, hiszen az Európai Unió az elmúlt években egyre inkább imperialista irányba mozdult el, különösen az Egyesült Királyság kilépése után. Egyre kevésbé szuverén államok közösségéről van szó. Egyre többször, függetlenül attól, hogy milyen jogaid vannak a Szerződések alapján, milyen észszerű érvet hozol fel nekik, olyasmire próbálnak rákényszeríteni, amit nem akarsz. Még konkrétabban: Brüsszel az elmúlt években ideológiai háborút vív Magyarország ellen, és folyamatosan zsarolni próbál bennünket. Még a bizottság elnöke is nyilvánosan kijelentette a legutóbbi parlamenti ülésen, hogy Magyarország addig nem kapja meg a neki járó uniós forrásokat, amíg nem hajlandó változtatni a migrációval és a genderrel kapcsolatos álláspontján. Szóval mi ez, ha nem zsarolás? Mi, magyarok hosszú évek óta ilyen körülmények között élünk.
- A másik 26 tagállam azt állítja, hogy egy évente jóváhagyott éves terv nem teszi lehetővé Ukrajnának, hogy négy évre tervezze kiadásait. Ez elfogadható érv az Ön szemében?
- Ez egy olyan érv, amelyet komolyan kell venni, de nem fogadom el. Először is nem tudjuk, mi lesz a következő három-négy hónapban Ukrajnában. Hát még négy év múlva… Másodszor, senki sem tudja, hogy az amerikaiak részt vesznek-e a játékban, akár most, akár a novemberi amerikai választások után. Harmadszor: ki végezte el az összeadást, ki számolt? Miért pont 50 milliárd euro? Nem tudjuk pontosan, hogy ez az összeg minek felel meg. És végül a fő érv, legalábbis egy demokrata számára, hogy öt hónap múlva választások lesznek Európában. Teljesen figyelmen kívül hagynánk az európaiak véleményét, ha ma olyan döntést hoznánk, amely négy évre lekötné Európát, és ez egy óriási összegre vonatkozik. Mintha nem lenne jelentősége az emberek véleményének, bármi legyen is a júniusi európai parlamenti választás eredménye. Ha Európa jogállamiságon alapuló demokratikus közösségként kíván viselkedni, egyszerűen nem hozhatunk ilyen döntést. ***
- Azt tudja, hogy az ukránok számára sürgős…
- Megértem az ukránokat. Szeretnék egy hatalmas összeg garanciáját a lehető leghosszabb ideig. Értem, de ez nem európai érdek. Európában másként kell viselkednünk. Ennyi pénzre az európaiaknak is szükségük van. Európában egyre jobban szenvedünk a gazdaság gyenge teljesítményétől. Ez a pénz nagyon hasznos lenne az európai népeknek, a franciáknak, a németeknek, a magyaroknak, a lengyeleknek… Összességében úgy gondolom, hogy több érv van a mi megoldásunk mellett – évenkénti döntés, a fejlemények függvényében felülvizsgálva –, mint az ellen-oldalnak, akik 50 milliárd euro-t szeretnének egyszerre kiosztani Ukrajnának négy évre.
- Mit válaszol azoknak, akik azt gondolják, hogy legbelül Trump novemberi megválasztását várja, hogy az Ön nézőpontja győzedelmeskedjen? Nagy szövetséges lenne Ön számára…
- Térjünk vissza 2016-ba, az első kampányához, a választások előtt. Akkoriban mindenki azt mondta, hogy a választást Clinton nyeri, nem Trump. Akkoriban világosan megmondtam, hogy Trump-ra szükségünk van Európában. Mert amikor Trump azt mondja, hogy „Tegyük újra naggyá Amerikát” vagy „Amerika az első”, az legitimál minket abban, hogy „Tegyük újra naggyá Európát” és „Európa az első”. Tegyék Európát az első helyre, tegyék Franciaországot az első helyre, és tegyék Magyarországot az első helyre. Ez a normális hozzáállás a nemzetközi politikában, ha nemzeti érdeken alapuló megállapodásokat akarunk találni. Végül nem szabad elfelejtenünk, hogy Trump az Egyesült Államok egyik legsikeresebb külpolitikát folytató elnöke volt. Egyetlen háborút sem indított el. Az Ábrahám-megállapodások volt az egyetlen komoly esély arra, hogy békét, egyensúlyt és elfogadható életformát teremtsünk a nagyon nehéz közel-keleti régióban. Személyes meggyőződésem továbbra is az, hogyha 2022 februárjában Trumpn-ak hívják az amerikai elnököt, nem lett volna háború Európában. Ma nem látok rajta kívül senkit sem Európában, sem Amerikában, aki elég erős vezető lenne ahhoz, hogy megállítsa a háborút. A békének van neve: Trump.
- von der Leyen elnök az Európai Parlamentben egyértelművé tette, hogy mintegy 20 milliárd euro-t nem fizetnek ki Magyarországnak mindaddig, amíg bizonyos problémák fennállnak Magyarországon, mint például a gyermekvédelmi törvény az LMBTQ-személyekkel, a tudományos szabadságot ért csorbák, a csalás elleni küzdelem hiányosságai. Hogyan reagál erre az emlékeztetésre?
- Először is emlékeztetni kell arra, hogy a bizottság három hónappal ezelőtt egyértelműen kijelentette, hogy a magyar közbeszerzésekre vonatkozó szabályozással nincs semmilyen probléma. Ez egy jó szabályozás. Ebből a szempontból Magyarország az EU-tagállamok legjobb első harmadában található. A korrupció elleni küzdelem kudarca tehát már nem egy szilárd érv. Majd a bizottság kimondta, hogy a magyarországi igazságszolgáltatás rendben van. Ezért az Európai Unió legerősebben ellenőrzött és újraértékelt igazságszolgáltatási rendszerével rendelkezünk. Ennek a kifogásnak is vége. De mivel a bizottságot politikai szándék vezérli, mert ideológiai háborút folytat Magyarország ellen, von der Leyen elnöknek új sérelmeket kell kreálnia Magyarország megtámadására és zsarolására. Az új sérelem pedig a migrációra és a genderre vonatkozik. Ennek semmi köze a korrupcióhoz vagy az igazságszolgáltatás minőségéhez, Magyarország ebből a szempontból jól áll. Nyilvánvaló tehát, hogy nem a jogállamiság az igazi érv Magyarország ellen. Nem is beszélve a zsarolási kísérletről, amely azt mondja: ha Magyarország nem adja oda az 50 milliárd euro-t Ukrajnának, akkor megfosztjuk a tanácsi szavazati jogától. Ez egyértelműen tisztességtelen magatartás, mert egy ország jogának megvonásáról csak akkor lehet szavazni, ha probléma van a jogállamisággal. De Ukrajnának semmi köze a jogállamisághoz! Az európai intézmények nem veszik komolyan a jogállamiságot. Ez csak egy eszköz a szuverenitásukat megőrizni óhajtó és saját véleménnyel rendelkező országok zsarolására. Másrészt ez nem jó Magyarországnak, mert mint minden normális ember, mi is szeretjük, ha szeretnek minket. Szeretjük, ha emberként és országként tisztelnek bennünket, amit méltánytalanul megtagadnak Magyarországtól. Ennek ellenére továbbra is úgy gondolom, hogy az európai egység fontos.
- Beszélt Meloni asszonnyal erről a helyzetről?
- Folyamatosan beszélek mindenkivel.
- Támogatja ő Önt?
- Nem, egyedül vagyunk. Számunkra ez elvi kérdés, de a többi 26 ország hatalmi kérdést csinál belőle. Sajnos ez egy nehéz helyzet. Mint tudják, sok-sok éve vagyok az Európai Tanács tagja. Ezekben a bonyolult helyzetekben az a fontos, amit stratégiai nyugalomnak nevezünk: ne ugorj rá mindenre, ami mozog, ne reagálj azonnal, maradj nyugodt. Fontos, hogy az európaiak megértsék, hogy a tagállamok, ha nem értenek egyet olyan kérdésekben, mint a háború, a migráció, a gender, azonnal imperialista reakciót tapasztalnak Brüsszelből, és a zsarolás egy formájának vetik őket alá.
- Európa súlyos mezőgazdasági válságon megy keresztül. Magyarországot érintette az európai piac megnyitása az ukrán termékek előtt. Mit vár a bizottságtól, amelynek júniusig megoldást kell javasolnia?
- Ez a történet megmutatja, hogy a háborútól függetlenül milyen komoly probléma Ukrajna Európa számára. A háború csak rávilágít Ukrajna fontosságára, de a háború nélkül is jelentős kihívást jelent Európa számára Ukrajna, és meg kell értenie, hogy miként közeledjen az Európai Unióhoz. Nagyon óvatosnak kell lennünk, mert Ukrajna hatalmas ország. És Ukrajna közeledése az Európai Unióhoz vagy akár az Európai Unióhoz való csatlakozása katasztrofális hatással lesz, vagy katasztrofális hatással lehetne az európai gazdaságokra, különösen a mezőgazdasági szektorban. Tehát mi történik? Sokat szenvedünk itt Magyarországon, mert szomszéd ország vagyunk, ahogy Lengyelország is. Önök, Franciaországban, messze vannak. Önöket mi védjük, ha szabad így mondanom. A kontinens távol tartja Ukrajnát Önöktől, de előbb-utóbb Franciaországot is eléri az ukrán gazdaság Európai Unióra gyakorolt hatása. És Önök pontosan ugyanúgy szenvedni fognak, mint mi. Nagyon egységesnek kell lennünk, és világosan el kell magyaráznunk az ukránoknak, milyen lépéseket kell tenni annak érdekében, hogy közelítsük feléjük az Európai Uniót és a piacainkat. Az ukrán mezőgazdasági termelés jóval olcsóbb, mint a francia és a magyar gazdáké, és ez nem fenntartható. Nem tudunk versenyezni velük, és tönkretesszük mezőgazdasági közösségeinket. Ezt nem tehetjük meg; az ukránoknak ezt meg kell érteniük. A bizottságnak az európai érdekeket kell megvédenie az ukránokkal szemben, nem pedig az ukrán érdekeket az európai gazdákkal szemben.
(Forrás: miniszterelnok *)
* Miniszterelnöki Kabinetiroda

*** Kiemelés tőlem - J.

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Címkék: magyarország franciaország ukrajna németország európa lengyelország egyesültkirályság európaiunió európaiparlament egyesültállamok európaibizottság európaitanács

Year 2024. European Parliament. Elections (a January forecast)

2024.01.30. 11:59 Eleve

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European Parliament
Jan 25, 24  A forecast.     The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and centre-left and green parties losing votes and seats.     We collected the most recent opinion polls in every EU member state and applied a statistical model of the performance of national parties in previous European Parliament elections, building on a model we developed and used for the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections.        The results show that the two main political groups in the parliament – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – will likely continue to lose seats which is resulting in an increasing fragmentation of European party systems, at both the national and European levels.     We expect the EPP to remain the largest group in the parliament, and therefore maintain most agenda-setting power, including over the choice of the next commission president. Our model predicts significant seat losses for the EPP in Germany, Italy, Romania, and Ireland, but significant gains in Spain.     We forecast that the S&D will lose a lot of seats in Germany, and the Netherlands, and will gain most seats in Poland.     The “grand coalition” of the EPP and the S&D is set to lose seats, holding 42 per cent of the total, compared to its current 45 per cent.     We predict that the centrist Renew Europe (RE) group and the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) will also lose seats, falling from 101 to 86 and 71 to 61 respectively. We expect RE to lose most seats in France and Spain, and to make most gains in the Czech Republic and Italy and the G/EFA to lose most seats in Germany, France, and Italy.     Even with the RE group, the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups will only hold 54 per cent of the seats, compared to its current 60 per cent - not enough for these three groups to guarantee a winning majority when they vote together.     Almost half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups.     The Left group should increase their representation from 38 to 44 seats - it will make most gains in Germany, France, and Ireland. In addition, if the Five Star Movement in Italy, which we predict will win 13 seats, decided not to sit with the non-attached (NI) MEPs, it may choose to join either the G/EFA or the Left, which would bolster the number of MEPs sitting to the left of the S&D.     The left coalition – of the S&D, the G/EFA, and the Left – will lose seats, with 33 per cent of the total, compared to the current 35 per cent. And, even if the left coalition can secure the support of RE – which they have done on environmental and social rights issues during the current term – it would hold only 45 per cent of the seats, compared to 50 per cent in the current parliament.     The main winners in the elections will be the populist right. The major winner will be the radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which we expect to gain 40 seats and, with almost 100 MEPs, to emerge as the third largest group in the new parliament.     A centre-right coalition – of the EPP, RE, and the ECR – will likely lose some seats, holding 48 per cent instead of the current 49 per cent. A “populist right coalition” – made up of the EPP, the ECR, and ID – will increase their share of the seats from 43 per cent to 49 per cent.     The majority of the non-attached MEPs are from extreme right parties, meaning that with their support, majority coalitions could form to the right of RE for the first time in the history of the European Parliament. The “pivotal MEP” in the next parliament is likely to be in the EPP group, rather than in the centrist RE (or previously Liberal) group for the first time.     Anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). These results will be particularly significant in several member states which will hold national parliament elections soon after the European Parliament election.     We also predict that the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group will gain 18 seats. Our model predicts that the ECR will lose seats in Poland, and gain most seats in Romania and Spain, in addition to Italy. We expect the ECR to pick up a lot of seats in Italy, as a result of Brothers of Italy (FdI) emerging as one of the largest delegations in the European Parliament (with 27 seats). With the expected fall of Forza Italia to only 7 seats, though, the EPP may approach Brothers of Italy to join their group. And, if Fidesz in Hungary (which we expect to win 14 seats) decides to join the ECR rather than to sit with the non-attached MEPs, the ECR could overtake RE and ID and become the third largest group.     It predicts that ID will lose many seats in Italy, with the decline of Lega, but these losses will be offset by significant gains in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Bulgaria, and Austria.     We expect the ECR and ID groups together to account for 25 per cent of MEPs, and have more seats combined than the EPP or the S&D for the first time.     The “EU-critics” on the radical right and radical left will increase dramatically to hold 37 per cent of the seats, compared to 30 per cent in the current parliament. Populist voices, particularly on the radical right, are likely to be louder after the 2024 elections than at any point since the European Parliament was first directly elected in 1979.     A populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs could emerge with a majority for the first time. This ‘sharp right turn’ will affect the foreign policy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change.         There is uncertainty regarding which political groups some parties will eventually join. There are two types of uncertain parties: (1) those that are not currently represented in the parliament and are not currently members of a European political party (which would automatically determine their group membership); and (2) those that currently have MEPs but might join a different political group in the next parliament. We have already mentioned the three largest parties in this list: Fidesz from Hungary, Brothers of Italy and the Five Star Movement from Italy. Beyond these, there are 25 other parties whose group membership remains uncertain. Together, we predict that these 28 parties will win 122 seats in June 2024, meaning that the eventual sizes of the groups might be somewhat different from those in our forecast. Most of the uncertain parties are those that will sit to the right of the EPP, in either the ECR, ID, or as non-attached MEPs. The likely “sharp right turn” is unlikely to change as a result of changes to these parties’ current or expected group membership. The sizes of the potential coalitions between the political groups in the chamber will benefit the right.         Different coalitions have tended to dominate in different policy areas in 2019-2024:   A centrist grand coalition (EPP + S&D, usually also with RE) typically won on budgets, budgetary control, culture and education, economic and monetary affairs, foreign affairs, internal market and consumer protection, legal affairs, and transport and tourism;   A centre + left coalition (S&D + RE+ G/EFA + the Left) usually won on civil liberties and justice and home affairs, development, employment and social affairs, environment, and women’s rights and gender equality;   A centre + right coalition (EPP + RE + ECR, and sometimes ID) usually won on agriculture and rural development, fisheries, industry and research, and international trade.   These coalitions and winning patterns are likely to continue, at least at the start of the next parliamentary term.          EU support for Ukraine - the majority in the next European Parliament is likely to back a continuation of the type of financial, logistical, and military aid that Western states have been approving for Kyiv since February 2022. However, there will be a larger number of MEPs (particularly in ID and among the non-attached MEPs) who are more sympathetic towards Russia. Support for Ukraine in the rest of the parliament might also soften as national parties start to respond to the changing opinions of their voters, expressed by their votes in the European Parliament elections.         Our analysis suggests two significant shifts in coalition patterns.     Firstly, the smaller size of the centrist grand coalition, even with RE support, is likely to mean that it will no longer be as dominant on some policy issues. In particular on economic and monetary affairs and internal market and consumer protection – where the grand coalition has won votes in the current parliament by smaller margins – we could see a significant shift to the right, as the EPP looks to partners to its right rather than to the S&D. Given the Euroscepticism of the ECR and ID, and some national parties in the EPP, we could therefore see majorities in the next parliament in support of more economic, fiscal, and regulatory freedom for member states. This bloc would be likely to vote against proposals from the commission to enforce common rules and instead side with the growing group of national governments – such as those in Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden – which are pushing for less interference from Brussels in national economic, fiscal, and regulatory policies.     Secondly, the smaller number of MEPs on the left relative to the right means that in several policy areas in which the left has tended to win by small margins, a right-wing majority will now be more likely to win than a left-wing majority. This is likely to be particularly true in two areas – civil liberties and justice and home affairs, and environment – where narrow centre-left majorities may be replaced by a new populist right winning coalition (of EPP + ECR + ID + most non-attached MEPs). On civil liberties and justice and home affairs, this could have major implications for EU migration and asylum policies, where there is likely to be a majority in the European Parliament that supports very restrictive immigration policies and will seek to push the commission to reform the EU’s asylum policy framework to allow more discretion for member states and to limit any sharing of refugee allocations.     This new winning majority on civil liberties and justice and home affairs could also have implications for the EU’s efforts to enforce the rule of law. In the current parliament there has been a narrow majority in favour of the EU imposing sanctions (such as withholding budget payments) on member states in which the rule of law is backsliding – in particular in Hungary and Poland. But after June 2024 it is likely to be harder for the centrist and centre-left MEPs (in RE, S&D, G/EFA, the Left, and parts of EPP) to hold the line against the 'continued erosion of democracy, rule of law, and civil liberties' in Hungary and any other member state that might head in that direction.     The biggest policy implications of the 2024 European Parliament elections are likely to concern environmental policy. In the current parliament, a centre-left coalition (of S&D, RE, G/EFA, and the Left) has tended to win on environmental policy issues, but many of these votes have been won by very small margins. The significant shift to the right in the new parliament will mean that an ‘anti-climate policy action’ coalition is likely to dominate. This would significantly undermine the EU’s Green Deal framework and the adoption and enforcement of common policies to meet the EU’s net zero targets. Perhaps the best illustration of this is what would have happened if the key vote on the EU’s nature restoration law was held after the 2024 elections. The law forces member states to restore at least 20 per cent of the EU’s land and seas by 2030, with binding targets to restore at least 30 per cent of degraded habitats by 2030, rising to 60 per cent by 2040 and 90 per cent by 2050. The key vote was on 12 July 2023, on a motion by the EPP to reject the commission’s proposal outright. The proposal to reject failed by only 12 votes (312 in favour, 324 against), and the parliament then went on to accept the commission’s proposal, with a series of votes against amendments from the groups on the right to water down the proposed actions. The dramatic increase in the number of MEPs to the right of the EPP is likely to seriously limit the EU’s actions to tackle the climate crisis.         The European Parliament elections will not only have implications for politics and policy at the EU level, they will also have an impact on domestic politics in many countries. The European Parliament elections are essentially 27 national elections, and the national debates that take place in the run-up to the June 2024 elections will affect the positions that the heads of state or government feel able to take in the months and years that follow the elections. If political parties campaign on a platform to block certain EU decisions, or the way the citizens in a country have voted in the European Parliament elections is perceived to demand a tougher mandate on immigration, a “no” to further EU enlargement, or a vote against the EU’s Green Deal agenda, this will influence the national governments’ approaches to EU policymaking after the 2024 elections.     The 2024 European Parliament election in Austria will come just a few months before the next national election, which is set for autumn 2024. If the two mainstream parties – the centre-right People’s Party of Austria (ÖVP) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) – continue to haemorrhage support, the radical right Freedom Party (FPÖ) could convert the success of the anti-system change vote into a national electoral victory.     Bulgaria has experienced five parliamentary elections since the beginning of 2021. This level of instability has contributed to the rapid acceleration of the anti-system vote, which the far-right and pro-Russia party, Revival, has greatly benefitted from: it won 14 per cent in the last election in 2023, making it the third largest party. If Revival wins three seats in the European Parliament election, as we predict, it will enter the European Parliament for the first time, gaining institutional legitimacy as Bulgaria’s mainstream parties continue to lose their own legitimacy - after holding its fifth national election in two years, Bulgaria is still nowhere near forming a stable government.     In France, the latest government led by President Macron is currently hovering at a 30 per cent approval rating. It will be French voters’ first opportunity to express this disapproval electorally and the first test for the French left after the break-up of the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES). There is every chance that Le Pen’s radical right National Rally (RN) will win the election. This would set the tone for the 2027 presidential election and could establish Le Pen as the potential next French president.     In Germany, the European Parliament election is likely to see the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the second largest German party in the European Parliament, behind a re-emergent Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU). The election will also be the first test for the new anti-immigrant radical left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). The next German parliamentary elections will be held in autumn 2025. The continued polarisation of German politics will therefore be a major concern for the centrist parties, and the CDU/CSU will be under pressure to say whether they would be willing to enter a coalition with the AfD.     In Italy, the European Parliament election will be the first electoral test for the new government led by prime minister Giorgia Meloni, as well as the new leaders of Forza Italia (led by deputy prime minister Tajani) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) led by Schlein. A decisive victory for Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, at the expense of its two coalition partners (Forza Italia and the League), would establish Brothers of Italy as the dominant party on the right in Italy. With voters on the left split between PD, the Five Star Movement, and the centrist parties, it remains to be seen whether these elections can establish a path forward for the left in Italy.     In the Netherlands, it is far from certain whether a government will be in place by the time of the European Parliament election or whether the country will be heading towards another national election. Wilders’s (PVV) is set to emerge as the largest Dutch party in the European Parliament, while Omzigt’s New Social Contract (NSC) will win MEPs for the first time. A decisive victory for these two parties could encourage them to form a coalition together. The combined Green-Left (PvdA-Groen Links) list may raise questions about the viability of this alliance going forward.     In Poland, the European Parliament election will be an opportunity to see whether Polish voters have sustainably turned away from the populist right Law and Justice party (PiS). We expect PiS to top the poll in Poland in June 2024 with 31 per cent of the votes and the centrist European Coalition (KE) alliance to come second with 24 per cent of the votes, closing the gap between it and PiS even further. The new centrist Third Way (TD) should win MEPs for the first time, further consolidating its position as a key ally of KE in a post-PiS Poland. The radical right is expected taking votes from PiS.     In Spain, the European Parliament election will be a referendum on prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) government and the deal Sánchez made with the Catalan nationalists to win the premiership after the July 2023 national election. We expect a significant backlash against Sánchez and his deal, with the centre-right People’s Party (PP) emerging as the clear winner and with the radical right Vox winning 10 per cent of the votes. The new Sumar alliance of the radical left and the greens is set to lose votes.     Sweden is likely seeing a further consolidation of support for Andersson’s centre-left Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP), following its re-emergence as the largest party after the September 2022 national election. The radical right Sweden Democrats (SD) look set to come second in the poll, mainly at the expense of the centre-right Moderata, which is likely to be punished for tacitly supporting Andersson’s minority government.         While the parliament is not the most significant EU institution when it comes to foreign policy, the way in which the political groups align after the elections, and the impact that these elections have on national debates in member states, will have significant implications for the European Commission’s and Council’s ability to make foreign policy choices, most notably in implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal. The implications of this vote are far reaching for the geopolitical direction of the European Council and European Commission from 2024 onwards. The next European Parliament can be expected to block legislation necessary to implement the politically difficult next phase of the Green Deal – impacting the EU’s climate sovereignty – and push for a harder line on key issues for other areas of EU sovereignty including migration, enlargement, and support for Ukraine.          National governments will feel constrained by the way these elections shape domestic debates, affecting the positions they can take in the European Council. This is likely to bolster the growing axis of governments around the European Council table that are attempting to limit the EU’s influence from within – those of Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Sweden, and likely a PVV-led government in the Netherlands.         These findings should also be set against the expectation that whether or not Trump wins the US presidential election in autumn 2024 – and the polls currently suggest there is a real possibility he will. Europe will have a less globally engaged United States to rely on. This may increase the inclination of anti-establishment and Eurosceptic parties to reject strategic interdependence and a broad range of international partnerships in defence of European interests and values, instead seeking to pursue a more cautious approach to foreign policy decisions.

Note:
Forecast by political group and member state:

Hungary:

Total: 21 (MPPs):    EPP: 0;    S&D: 4;    ID: 0;    RE: 1;    ECR: 0;    G/EFA: 0;    Left: 0;    NI: 16".

Forecast vote share by member state, 2024:

Party     Forecast vote share;     Forecast MEPs;     Difference Expected;     EP group
Fidesz       43.9%                                   14                                    1                     NI
DK            13.1%                                     4                                    0                  S&D
MHM           6.2%                                     2                                    2                     NI
MM             5.8%                                     1                                  −1                     RE
MKKP          5.0%                                     0                                    0                     0
MSZP          4.6%                                     0                                  −1                     0
LMP            3.8%                                     0                                    0                      0
Jobbik         3.5%                                     0                                  −1                     0
PM              2.3%                                     0                                    0                     0

(Parties:    Fidesz-Magyar Polgári Szövetség;    Demokratikus Koalició;    Mi Hazánk Mozgalom;    Momentum Mozgalom;    Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt;    Magyar Szocialista Párt;    Lehet Más a Politika;    Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom;    Párbeszéd - A Zöldek Pártja).

(Source: ecfr *)
* European Council on Foreign Relations (Berlin, Germany)

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Danube photos

2024.01.19. 18:42 Eleve

 

Budapest, 2024. I. 19. Szent István Katedrális (részlet). Ybl (1814-1891) neoreneszánsz stílusban tervezte meg a katedrálist, fejezte be a rekonstrukciót. Az ikonográfiai program Lollok prépost érdeme, a belső terek ékesítése és a kivitelezés felügyelete Kauser (1848-1919) nevéhez fűződik. 1898-ban kapta meg a város az engedélyt a katedrális felszentelésére s hogy e székesegyházat a magyar állam alapítójának, Szent Istvánnak szenteljék. Felszentelési nagymisét 1905 november 19.-én tartottak, a plébánia első miséjére pedig másnap került sor.

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