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Europe
Poland
23.07.2025 Polish soldiers fired shots at a group of migrants crossing the Poland-Belarus border in Narewka on Poland’s northeastern border yesterday evening at 8.37 pm local time, injuring a Sudanese citizen, the army said today. ’The migrant's life is not in danger," the statement read. In July 2024, the Polish parliament passed legislation removing criminal liability from uniformed personnel using firearms on Poland’s eastern border. Efforts to curb illegal migration must focus on the EU’s external borders, Polish Interior Minister Siemoniak said Monday during a visit to the Poland-Belarus border with his German counterpart Dobrindt. Siemoniak said Poland has spent 2.6 billion zlotys (€600,000) and deployed 11,000 border guards and soldiers on its eastern border. Warsaw also suspended asylum applications in March. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
Ukraine
23/07/2025 - 14:44 Reports of cyberattacks targeting public entities and private groups are mounting. Administrator of major dark web cybercrime forum, XSS.is, was arrested in Ukraine, with the help of French police and Europol, French prosecutors said today. Active since 2013, the Russian-language site is one of the main hubs for global cybercrime, enabling access to compromised systems, stolen data, the sale of malware and ransomware-related services. The criminal investigation was opened by the Paris public prosecutor's office. The forum also operated an encrypted Jabber messaging server, facilitating anonymous exchanges between cybercriminals. An investigation was launched in July 2021 and was handed over to investigating magistrates on November 9, 2021. A judicial investigation was opened on charges of complicity in attacks on an automated data processing system, organised extortion, and criminal conspiracy. The intercepted messages revealed numerous illicit activities and established that they generated at least $7 million in profits. (Source: France 24 with AFP = France)
July 23, 2025 8:20am EDT Ukraine sees sweeping protests after the passage of a controversial bill threatening the autonomy of two anti-corruption agencies. In Kyiv, demonstrators gathered outside the presidential administration. The Ukrainian government’s latest move could strain the warming relationship between Zelenskyy and President Trump, who has accused the Ukrainian leader of being a ’dictator without elections.’ Both the U.S. and the E.U. have backed activists in Ukraine demanding independent institutions be established and empowered to clean up corruption, according to Axios. However, the pressure dropped significantly after Russia invaded Ukraine. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)
23/07/2025 - 13:16 Thousands of people gathered in the capital and other cities across Ukraine yesterday evening after Zelensky signed a law tightening control over key anti-corruption agencies. The move threatens their independence, critics say, and risks undermining EU ties and billions in Western aid. The mood of anger and frustration among the war-weary Ukrainians prevailed in the crowd yesterday. Some protesters accused Ukraine’s leadership of prioritizing loyalty and personal connections over the fight against corruption. “Those who swore to protect the laws and the Constitution have instead chosen to shield their inner circle, even at the expense of Ukrainian democracy,’ said veteran Symoroz, sitting in a wheelchair because both his legs were amputated after he was wounded in 2022. The Ukrainian branch of Transparency International accused authorities of dismantling the country’s anti-corruption architecture. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova mocked Zelensky’s claim of Russian infiltration into the anti-corruption agency, noting sarcastically that “they might just as well pull a couple of bears out of the corner.” Zelensky didn’t provide examples of what he said was Russian interference. Ukrainian activists called on social media for more protests against the law in the center of Kyiv at 8 p.m. today. (Source: France 24 „with AP” - U.S.)
Wednesday 23 July 2025 11:50 BST Anti-government protests have broken out in Kyiv as hundreds flocked to the streets to oppose a decision to curb the powers of two anti-corruption agencies. Angry protesters held signs reading ‘F*** corruption’ and ‘Corruption = Death’ while chanting “Ukraine is not Russia”. Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and a prominent political opponent of Zelensky, was among the protesters. Kos, the EU’s enlargement commissioner, said the move was a “serious step back” for Kyiv’s membership hopes. French European affairs minister Haddad said it ’not too late’ for Kyiv to reverse the decision. It comes as a third round of talks is set to take place in Istanbul, Turkey after previous summits in May and June failed. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)
23 July 2025 09:58 BST Zelensky has approved the delegation which will take part in negotiations today in Istanbul. The delegation will be headed by secretary of the National Security and Defence Council Umerov, who served as Ukraine’s defence minister until days ago. It also includes representatives from the presidential office, the armed forces, the foreign ministry, the security ’sand intelligence’ services, and the Ukrainian parliament. Some other members of the delegation: Diakov, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Navy; Kyslytsia: First Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs; Luhovskyi: First Deputy Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service; Ostrianskyi: Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces; Poklad: Deputy Head of the Security Service of Ukraine; Skibitskyi: Deputy Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)
Wednesday 23 July 2025 08:39, UK Protests erupt in Kyiv as Zelenskyy clamps down on anti-corruption bodies. Thousands have gathered. It marks the first major rally against the government in more than three years of war. /Video/ (Source: Sky News - United Kingdom)
9:26 am, July 23, 2025 Zelensky said that he had met with the heads of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) following the passage of a new law that strips both agencies of their independence and places them under the control of the Prosecutor General’s office. On July 21, the Ukrainian Security Service and the Prosecutor General’s office were conducting a special operation to 'neutralize Russian influence over NABU.' Passed by parliament on July 22, Bill No. 12414 effectively subordinates NABU and SAPO to the Prosecutor General’s office and strips them of their independence. The legislation gives the Prosecutor General’s office access to all NABU cases and the authority to issue mandatory written instructions to NABU detectives. It also grants the power to close investigations upon defense request, settle jurisdictional disputes unilaterally, and requisition case materials for reassignment. ’The anti-corruption infrastructure will continue to function - just without Russian influence’, Zelensky said in a video address released early today. He added that NABU and SAPO would keep working. Cases that have been sitting idle must be investigated, there’s no rational explanation for why ’criminal cases worth billions’ have been left hanging for years, he said. At the same time, Zelensky did not directly comment on Bill No. 12414. According to Ukrainska Pravda, the heads of NABU and SAPO had urged Zelensky not to sign the bill. The European Union and G7 countries also raised concerns about the measure. Protesters who took to the streets yesterday called on him to veto it. He signed the bill just hours before releasing his video. Nor did he comment on the protests that broke out in Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Dnipro in response to the legislation. (Source: Meduza - based in Riga, Latvia)
(23 July 2025) After a bill was passed targeting the country's anti-corruption bodies, protesters gathered in Kyiv yesterday. We chose Europe, not autocracy, said a poster held by one demonstrator. My father did not die for this, said another. Ukraine's chief prosecutor, Zelensky loyalist Kravchenko, will now be able to reassign corruption probes to potentially more pliant investigators, and even to close them. Stamping out corruption is a key requirement for Ukraine's application to join the EU, which provides significant financial assistance to Ukraine, conditional on progress in transparency, judicial reform, and democratic governance, says European Commission spokesperson Mercier. The Ukrainian independent anti-corruption system was set up at Ukraine's Western allies’ insistence and under their supervision 10 years ago. It was a key precondition for their aid and stronger ties ’as Ukraine declared a pro-democracy course’ amid Russia's initial invasion of 2014. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
(Wednesday), July 23, 2025 7:01 AM CET „EU slams Ukraine’. On Monday, Ukraine announced its state security service had raided National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and arrested two top officials as part of a massive hunt ’for alleged Russian moles’. Critics argue the evidence against the agents is murky and the arrests were a pretext for undermining the independent agencies. Hundreds of Ukrainians took to the streets in protest yesterday after the country’s parliament voted in favor of a bill critics said will weaken the independence of key anti-corruption agencies. The law gives Ukraine’s prosecutor general, who is appointed by the president, power over the previously independent National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). Zelenskyy signed the bill into law last night, giving his office more control over anti-corruption bodies. People are angry at the outrageous ’reforms’ and directing their rage toward Zelenskyy and his office. It’s the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion that protests have been held in the streets of Kyiv, in defiance of the fact Ukraine remains under martial law and the daily bombardment by Putin’s forces. The EU’s Defense Commissioner Kubilius was in Washington yesterday, making the case for more American support for Ukraine. ’He met Senator Graham’, author of a major plan to hit Russia with punitive new sanctions. Then the corruption story broke. “In war trust between the fighting nation and its leadership is more important than modern weapons - difficult to build and to keep, but easy to lose with one significant mistake by the leadership,” Kubilius said pointedly on X. “Transparency & open European dialogue is the only way to repair the damaged trust.” In a series of statements yesterday the European Commission voiced its alarm at the turn of events. A spokesperson told reporters at the midday press briefing Brussels was concerned and monitoring developments. Criticism of Ukraine is highly unusual in Brussels. Enlargement Commissioner Kos said she was seriously concerned, noting ’The dismantling of key safeguards protecting NABU’s independence is a serious step back.” „Independent bodies like NABU & Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) are essential for [Ukraine’s] EU path. Rule of Law remains in the very center of EU accession negotiations.” She later said she’d had frank discussions (meaning a big bust up) with new Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and Kachka, Ukraine’s EU integration lead. ’We’ll continue working with Ukraine on the necessary rule of law reforms & progress on its EU path,’ Kos said on X. So many EU types have been so outspoken in public against Kyiv. The German Foreign Office last night was saying: “The independence and strength of Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions have been key to reform efforts of recent years. Ukraine will continue to be measured against their progress.” Zelenskyy defended the ’reform’ in the early hours of this morning, insisting in a Telegram post that ’The anti-corruption infrastructure will work … NABU and SAPO will work.’ For Ukraine’s EU allies, it’s a nightmare this ’reform’ which could undermine international support for Ukraine’s war effort. „It dismays its staunchest European allies, who’ve been backing its bid to join the EU’. Brussels sees red. Hungary’s leader Viktor Orbán, Europe’s most infamous ’bad boy’ on ’rule of law’ infringements, has been the one holding up progress on Ukraine’s accession negotiations. Now he can, should he wish, point to rule of law concerns on the other side to justify his continuing obstruction. Many of Ukraine’s European allies will now be bracing themselves for a ’withering reaction’ from MAGA Republicans who have never been sold on Zelenskyy. Trump himself may even weigh in. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
by Ross, chief political correspondent
Asia
Turkey
23.07.2025 A Ukrainian delegation led by National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov held today talks with Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara, ahead of the third round of Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations in Istanbul. The discussions covered security situation, regional stability challenges, and the prospects for further defense cooperation, according to Yermak, head of Ukrainian presidential office, who described the meetings as constructive. He said they also talked about the importance of organizing a top-level meeting involving presidents Zelenskyy, Erdogan, Trump and Putin, as a step toward initiating meaningful peace talks to help bring the war to an end. The Ukrainian officials also met Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan and Kilic, chief adviser to Erdogan. The third round of renewed Russia-Ukraine peace talks facilitated by Türkiye is set to begin in Istanbul today evening at around 7 p.m. local time (1600GMT) at the Ciragan Palace. The meeting will be chaired by Fidan. Türkiye’s National Intelligence Organization chief Kalin and Chief of the Turkish General Staff Gen. Gurak are also expected to attend. Russia's delegation will be led by presidential aide Medinsky. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
North America
United States
July 23, 2025 The evolution of Rubio, his shape-shifting encapsulates how America’s vision of its place in the world has changed under President Trump. A country that was a linchpin of the postwar international order has retreated into “America First” isolationism, defined by disdain for multilateral institutions and traditional allies, and Trump’s highly transactional approach to foreign policy. Rubio is typical of a certain type of Republican politician that came to see globalisation and neoliberalism as a mistake. Allies dismiss the idea Rubio has changed, insisting that on key issues he has been remarkably consistent. “He’s always said foreign aid must be in America’s interests, he’s always complained about how the US was exporting and projecting liberal social policies on other countries, and he’s always believed that the US cannot be the world’s policeman,” says a former aide. Far from abandoning his values, they say, he has championed them, influencing Trump to adopt a more hawkish posture towards countries such as China, Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Since taking charge of the state department, he has proved a loyal executor of the president’s will. From the start, Rubio moved to align the state department with Trump’s rightwing populist agenda. Rubio increasingly seemed to mimic Trump’s rhetoric. The state department under Rubio has shut down most refugee resettlement programmes while fast-tracking asylum applications for white Afrikaner families alleging race-based persecution in South Africa. Rubio has revoked the visas of non-US students who took part in campus protests against Israel’s war in Gaza, calling them “lunatics”. He has instructed consular officers to scrutinise the social media feeds of visa applicants to see if they pose a threat to US national security. During a trip to Saudi Arabia in May, Trump said that “far too many American presidents have been afflicted with the notion that it’s our job to look into the souls of foreign leaders and use US policy to dispense justice for their sins”. That was now ending, he said. Rubio always believed that the US cannot be the world’s policeman. But US interventions have not stopped. In May, after German intelligence designated the far-right Alternative for Germany an extremist organisation, Rubio expressed his outrage on X. “That’s not democracy - it’s tyranny in disguise.’ German Chancellor Merz called on the US to “stay out” of German domestic politics. In early May, less than a week after Trump appointed him acting national security adviser, he was expected to address the diplomatic corps in Washington for the first time. More than 100 ambassadors and senior diplomats gathered for the reception. But he never turned up, much to their frustration. He dismantled the US Agency for International Development, America’s main conduit for foreign aid, eliminated or downsized whole departments 'that promote democracy and human rights round the world' and in effect terminated the broadcaster Voice of America. On Tuesday he withdrew the US from Unesco, saying it advanced 'divisive social and cultural causes”. 83 per cent of of USAID programmes have been terminated, 94 per cent of its staff laid off and its remaining functions absorbed into the state department. ’Beyond creating a globe-spanning NGO industrial complex at taxpayer expense, USAID has little to show since the end of the cold war,’ he said in a blog post on July 1. The secretary of state has defended his reforms of a ’bloated, bureaucratic’ agency that was ’more beholden to radical political ideology than advancing America’s core national interests”. 246 foreign service officers and 1,107 civil service employees were terminated this month in the state department. In February he struck a deal with El Salvador under which the Central American state promised to take in and incarcerate criminal illegal migrants. Officials say the deal has mainly targeted members of violent criminal gangs. This month, he boasted of some of the Trump administration’s foreign policy wins. It had ’brokered a truce between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan’ and a peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. ’It had persuaded Nato members to spend 5 per cent of their GDP on defence by 2035’. And it had attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. Everything Rubio is doing at the state department is consistent with the world view he has espoused for much of his career. Indeed, the man is now arguably the president’s most powerful cabinet secretary. As well as secretary of state, he is also acting national security adviser, acting administrator of USAID and acting head of the National Archives and Records Administration. The secretary of state has proved himself to be a loyal executor of the president’s will. Rubio has also improved his standing with Maga hardliners who once considered him dangerously soft on immigration. Former foes such as Bannon, Trump’s chief strategist during his first term, now consider him an ally. “He will be the Kissinger of our time,” Miller said of Rubio on Fox News in May. In this telling, Rubio’s hopes of becoming the Republican nominee for president in 2028 rest on winning over the Maga base. (Source: Financial Times - United Kingdom)
Some comments:
- Everyone here either doesn't understand what it means to have access to the Foreign Affairs space as a US Senator and then as a candidate for POTUS. Or they don't care. Since 1950, the only Secretary of State with greater access to more people, data, information, and constituency (fundraisers) might be Kissinger. Everyone else had to get the information AFTER getting cleared. And even Kissinger didn't have primary access to constituency like Senator Rubio did.
- Hopefully Secretary Rubio will be the Republican Presidential candidate in the next election. He is loyal to President Trump and should be.
- The first Latino Secretary of State is also a Senator with two decades of experience across multiple committees and a former POTUS candidate. From Florida. That means he knows a lot, learned a lot, and has acted on a lot. America's future is 99% certainly a hemispheric strategy with the demographic growth engine of the LatAm world and the mineral riches of the LatAm world. This cannot be decoupled from American capital, technology, and the natural resource based defenses that the wonderful book "Accidental Superpower" identified. Coming from an establishment Republican, this next bit is the hard part. We still have way too much overhang in the State Department. I'm estimating 25% of the FTEs still have little to no work to do on a daily basis and quite possibly only push paper around for 50% of the week. Contractors are worse, with nearly 50% doing nothing all day. There needs to be ongoing reductions to GG, CS, and immediate contractor cuts. FSOs don't need to be cut.
- I suspect that Rubio has forsaken his presidential ambitions. I took heart when Rubio was appointed. Given his background on the Senate Foreign Relations com. hope was that he would act as a constraint, at least in foreign policy, on the know-nothing Trump in much the same way as McMaster, Bolton, Mattis, etc. had during the first admin. But it is clear that Trump does not want any more awkward, independent advisors second-guessing him. One possibility is that Rubio has trimmed to pursue his own agenda. State is the highest position he is likely to ever hold and in that position one of his priorities has been to establish strong working links with Latin America, a surprisingly neglected (apart from a few honeymoon periods such as the Good Neighbor Policy or Alliance for Progress) area in US policy. He has been one of the most active Secs in this area for sometime and is working assiduously to roll back Chinese opportunism in the region. Some of his acquiescence to Trump forays has been shocking. However, watch his body language in the Zelensky meeting - he doesn't want to be there. Might he even be instrumental in Trump's row back on Ukraine? Some interesting material in this article, but the jury is still out on Rubio.
- Rubio is a splendid family man, a devout Catholic, and served as a fantastic Senator representing Florida. He showed wit and fundraising ability during his Presidential campaign. It's no wonder Adelson wanted him to be VP. You're looking at the future first Latino President of the United States. Power couldn't come any sooner to our wonderful VP Vance and SecState Rubio.
- 12 years of the GOP in the White House will hurt both of you. Deeply. As you enter retirement just think of this: VP Vance becomes POTUS Vance; SecState Rubio becomes VP Rubio; America's hemispheric strategy is in full swing; America's voting demographics are 20% Latino by 2037; VP Rubio becomes POTUS Rubio. Amen.
- As others have noted, this administration may be “America First”, but it is anything but isolationist. The lastest instance of meddling in other countries’ domestic politics, led by Rubio, was the revocation of visas of Brazilian judges prosecuting former president Bolsonaro.
- Even in Trump 1.0 everyone, including the President, said Rubio was in charge of LatAm policy. Which maps well to the LatAm intensive hemispheric strategy that POTUS Trump has today. Once we stabilize immigration, guess which cabinet level agency can create multiple new visa types? Integrate with consulates? Deliver across new software apps to trace and track status and payments? And who runs that Department? Secretary of State Rubio.
- I always find it hilarious how Democrats and Trump haters take on all his behaviors. Denigrating public servants, using cute little nick names, gently ribbing competitors with sarcasm....why not just go full MAGA?
- Looking at those guys in the US and at the current armed conflicts, I have come to think that some people are beyond redemption. This is a depressing view and Id sure like to be reasonably told that I am wrong...
July 23, 2025 How U.S. forces should leave Europe? In the six months since U.S. President Trump came into office, European leaders promised a sharp increase in defense and defense-related spending at the NATO summit in June. Europe is introducing new financial mechanisms and breaking down barriers to cooperation in its defense industry. A more capable Europe would become the kind of partner that Washington wants and needs, and it would gain the freedom to set its own strategy as a global power. To ensure that this necessary rebalancing proceeds, the Trump administration must withdraw substantial numbers of U.S. forces from Europe, starting now, and truly shift the burden of the region’s conventional defense onto the continent. To encourage Europe to follow through on its own promises, Washington must lay out a realistic, targeted, and phased plan that cuts U.S. troop levels in Europe roughly in half ’over the next four years’ while keeping in place forces vital to U.S. security interests or forces that Europe cannot reasonably replace in that time. The best window for Europe to take on a greater share of the burden for its defense is now - not in five or ten years when political will may have faded or an emergency elsewhere forces a sudden U.S. withdrawal. Competition with China and the emergence of other global powers have altered the United States’ strategic reality. Washington can no longer maintain the global military primacy it enjoyed after the end of the Cold War. To avoid overstretching, the United States must allocate its assets prudently - which means withdrawing from or downsizing in some parts of the world. Not to do so would drain the country’s resources, worsening a domestic fiscal crisis and killing any hope of retaining the global military lead that the United States still enjoys. The reality is that U.S. troop deployments in Europe are larger than necessary to defend core U.S. interests on the continent, so they will remain near the top of the list of cuts. This is because ’many U.S. forces in Europe are unneeded given the current threat level” and becoming redundant as Europe’s military might grows. Russia’s long-range nuclear weapons and advanced cyber-capabilities put the United States at risk, as do Russian covert agents who spy, disrupt civil society, and have assassinated private citizens. Russian tanks and artillery, however, do not. Concentrating U.S. resources on nuclear, cyber, and gray-zone defense while leaving land defense largely to European allies will be a more sustainable division of responsibilities as Washington pares down its commitments. The war in Ukraine is often cited as a reason to keep U.S. forces at current levels. But with the Russian army dug in in Ukraine, the Kremlin cannot seriously contemplate a conventional attack on a NATO country for at least the next few years. Some U.S. forces in Europe are essential to protect the East Coast of the United States from a Russian sea-based attack from the North Atlantic, particularly through the ocean gaps between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom. Other U.S. conventional weapons stationed on the continent, such as the Rivet Joint, Global Hawk, and P-8 reconnaissance aircraft, collect crucial intelligence. To remove such capabilities would be unwise. U.S. naval forces in Europe offer a suite of weapons used for different tasks, some of which they must continue to perform ’in Europe’ for the foreseeable future. One cannot remove a destroyer’s Tomahawk missiles, whose land-attack function Europe can be expected to replace, without removing its Aegis radars, which are a cornerstone of ’Europe’s’ missile defense network. Ohio-class nuclear-powered submarines, a key component of the U.S. nuclear triad, require access to certain naval bases in Europe. The use of the base in Rota, Spain is also important for the U.S. Navy’s logistics network and power projection to other regions of the world. Responsibly managing a drawdown while keeping many essential capabilities in position is not abandoning Europe. The drawdown itself should be predictable and focused, proceeding in phases and targeting primarily land power and, to a lesser extent, air power. Early in the war - Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine - U.S. force levels peaked above 100,000—a huge increase from the approximately 60,000 troops stationed on the continent before 2022. These have since been reduced to around 80,000. Three years later, it’s clear the threat of an imminent Russian attack is minimal. The Trump administration should therefore announce plans to begin an immediate withdrawal of these forces, to be completed by the end of 2026. The squadron of U.S. F-35s that is expected to begin operations this fall should join the first round of removals - Europe already has plenty of fighter aircraft of its own. The Trump administration should therefore lay out a broader drawdown of U.S. conventional forces with a deadline of January 2029, cutting them to roughly half of today’s levels and rebalancing them to include primarily naval forces, a smaller proportion of air power, and a limited number of ground forces. To achieve this force mix, the United States should remove the armored brigade combat team that has been rotating through eastern Europe since 2017, the European combat aviation brigade and artillery capabilities that have been deployed since 2018, and most short-range air defense units. European armies can take over the deterrent function if properly trained and equipped. Two of the six Arleigh Burke destroyers that the U.S. Navy has sent to Europe since the start of the war in Ukraine should be redeployed to the Indo-Pacific, where the need is greater. Most U.S. fighter aircraft, such as F-35s and F-16s, currently in Europe for deterrent purposes can be removed as well, given Europe’s large and growing stock of high-end aircraft. As U.S. forces are reduced, staff at U.S. headquarters across Europe can also be downsized. The Trump administration should also discuss with Europe’s strongest military powers the possibility of naming a European official as Supreme Allied Commander Europe - NATO’s top command post. This high-visibility position has traditionally been held by the commander of U.S. forces in Europe. This responsibility would accelerate the transition to European leadership of European defense. A drawdown would leave a meaningful backstop of U.S. forces in Europe, including two army brigades, support aircraft, and most naval forces. ’U.S. command and control, special forces, space forces, theater ballistic missile defense, and other elements that only the U.S. military can provide would stay in place’. Remaining forces would preserve vital U.S. interests: protecting the U.S. East Coast, maintaining nuclear deterrence, and supporting the country’s world-class collection of intelligence. Washington could pursue additional drawdowns in the 2030s - or, if changing security conditions make it necessary, send some forces back. Europe’s current military weaknesses are easily exaggerated, as is Russia’s current conventional threat to NATO. ’The members of the European Union alone already have 1.3 million soldiers under arms, roughly the same number as the United States has and slightly more than Russia’s 1.1 million’. European forces would be fighting defense ’should Russia attack’, they would not need as many forces as the aggressor to maintain an advantage. European NATO allies already deploy large units to the Baltics, including German soldiers permanently stationed in Lithuania. European combat airpower is highly advanced and could badly weaken Russian forces ’attempting to invade a Baltic country or Finland’. Russia, meanwhile, has proved less capable than once feared. Some specific U.S. ground systems will be difficult to replace. Long-range artillery and air defenses, for example, are expensive, in high demand, and hard to produce. But ’Europe’s procurement funds are growing by tens of billions of euros annually’, which should make buying and deploying many of these systems possible within the next few years. Europe can also strengthen its arsenal by increasing its drone warfare capabilities. Outlining its withdrawal plans will simplify Europe’s defense calculus, help Europe think practically about its procurement goals. ’For the next few years, Europe will still need to buy a great deal from the United States’. The State Department should prioritize Europe as it approves ’sales of the systems the United States is withdrawing’. The Defense Department and the White House should work with U.S. defense firms to overcome their resistance to making the technology transfers necessary to help European industry fill gaps quickly. The era in which the United States enjoyed wide latitude to project military power all over the world is long over, and Washington cannot delay making adjustments to avoid a cycle of overspending and relative decline. The United States needs bold action now to sustain the momentum already underway to realize a credible European self-defense, for its own sake and for Europe’s. European leaders are recognizing the real risk that the United States might not come to the defense of their continent. It is their moral and political responsibility to ensure they can protect their populations by strengthening their own defenses. And this is their opportunity to build a more self-reliant, more confident, and more capable Europe. The danger now is that Europe will lose its momentum of self-defense - and that the United States, by delaying an expected drawdown of forces from the continent, will let it. Hesitating would undermine Europe’s progress and risk locking in a suboptimal security structure for years to come. (Source: Foreign Affairs - U.S.)
by Chivvis, Director of the American Statecraft Program and a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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