Egyik 19

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United States
Thursday, 9/12/2024 11:00 AM  The prospect of an assassination was on the minds of some Trump supporters long before the Butler rally. In December 2020, Trump told friends he feared Iran might try to kill him as retaliation for the drone strike he ordered to kill Maj. Gen. Soleimani, according to the book “The Divider” by Baker and Glasser. Last year, as Trump stared down four separate criminal cases, he repeatedly passed on invitations to speculate that an assassination attempt could be in his future. “Are you worried that they’re going to try and kill you?” Carlson asked Trump in an interview released on the same night as the first primary debate, in which Trump did not participate. Trump didn’t directly answer, In his first public statements after the July 13 shooting, Trump thanked law enforcement, offered condolences to the rallygoers killed and wounded, and called for unity. On the first night after Trump was injured in an assassination attempt in Butler, Pa., some supporters and allies, including campaign staff, immediately began blaming President Biden and Democrats before any information was available about the shooter or his possible motive. The observation that the rally attendees in Butler stayed and watched Trump rather than flee quickly became a popular feature of the story, usually offered as testament to their courage and dedication to Trump - making the brush with disaster something they survived together. That night, after Trump took off in his plane and police cleared the fairgrounds where the rally was held, people put out Trump signs and banners and spray-painted “FIGHT” on the streets. An anonymous petition circulating online gathered more than 7,000 signatures to ask the county judge to impanel a grand jury to investigate the assassination attempt, alleging that federal agencies have conflicts of interest and “possible perceived corruption.” The Secret Service repeatedly turned down the Trump campaign’s requests for additional resources. The attempt on Trump’s life left him unusually spiritual and amazed to be alive, according to people who spoke to him immediately afterward. He stayed relatively quiet through the start of the Republican National Convention that opened just two days later. He began with a dramatic retelling of the assassination attempt, saying it would be the only time because it was “too painful.” He was joined onstage by the firefighter uniform of slain rallygoer Comperatore, and at one point he walked over to kiss the white helmet. “When he stood up after being shot in the face, bloodied, and put his hand up, I thought, at that moment, that was a transformation. This was no longer a man,” Carlson said in his speech on the convention’s final night. “I think it was divine intervention. But the effect that it had on Donald Trump - he was no longer just a political party’s nominee, or a former president, or a future president. This was the leader of a nation.” Depictions of Trump's raised fist after the assassination attempt decorated his July 24 rally in Charlotte. The photo of Trump raising his fist with blood on his face has supplanted his mug shot as the defining image of his campaign, symbolizing the feeling of defiance that Trump has made core to his political persona. Republicans’ new rallying cry became the “Fight! Fight! Fight!” chant inspired by Trump’s first words after getting shot. There would be shirts proclaiming “Still Standing … Impeached, Arrested, Convicted & Shot” and “You Missed.” Some delegates wore paper flaps over their ears in solidarity with Trump’s bandage. Trump proceeded to recount the shooting again and again. At the July 31 rally in Harrisburg, he marveled that the Butler rally had not turned into a stampede when the gunshots rang out. “They all said, ‘Trump is going to be a nice man now. He came close to death.’ And I really agreed with that for about eight hours or so. So, I was nice for about, what would you say, three, four, or five hours, and then I said, ‘These are bad people. We have to win this battle,’ he said. .” Secret Service Director Cheatle resigned under pressure in July, and there are ongoing investigations by congressional committees, the FBI and Homeland Security’s inspector general. In recent weeks, the Republican presidential nominee began promoting conspiracy theories such as those that label the assassination attempt an “inside job” by government agencies. Trump and his running mate, Sen. Vance (R-Ohio), frequently portray the attempt as part of efforts by political opponents to prevent the former president from returning to power. In a recent podcast interview, Trump pointed to FBI Director Wray’s initial uncertainty in congressional testimony about what hit Trump’s ear as reason to distrust him. His frequent retellings of what happened in Butler serve to deepen his bond with his supporters by fostering a collective experience of overcoming adversity. That shared feeling gets intensified by a perceived indifference from the media, as attention quickly moved on from the shooting to Trump’s selection of Vance and Harris’s replacement of Biden as the Democratic nominee. “The more we see what happened that day, the more suspicious it all looks,” ’right-wing’ podcast host Crowley said in an interview with Trump released on Aug. 29. “It looks like the three-letter agencies are slow-walking a lot of this evidence, a lot of the videos, etc. Does it look increasingly to you like this was a suspicious, maybe even inside job?” “It’s very suspicious,” Trump replied. “The more you see it, the more you start to say, ‘There could be something else.’” Trump campaign senior adviser Hughes said: “President Trump wants to ensure we learn where failures happened and how to prevent them in the future.” Trump allies and surrogates are already echoing his language or going further. In a Sept. 6 radio interview, Sen. Johnson (R-Wis.) drew a line connecting the JFK assassination, the downfall of President Nixon and the Butler shooting. “We’ll probably never know because there’s a reason you call it the deep state,” he said. “It’s very deep. It’s very pervasive.” ’This is all set up to prime his base to believe that, if his loses in November, the Democrats have once again stolen the election, that Harris is illegitimate, and they should in some respects come to his defense,’ said Walter, a professor at the University of California at San Diego and the author of ’How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them.’ “I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me,” Trump said at Tuesday’s ABC News debate with Vice President Harris. (Source: msn / The Washington Post)

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Europe

Hungary
September 11, 2024 5:27pm EDT  In 1944, hundreds of Nazi Germany's explosives-laden Black Sea fleet vessels were scuttled along the River Danube, destroying the ships themselves as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces. After a drought in July and August that saw the river's water level drop, four vessels have come to light in Hungary's Danube-Drava National Park near Mohács, this year. Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still have turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others lie mostly submerged under sand banks. Wrecks of ships have also emerged near Serbia's river port town of Prahovo. The Danube stood at 1.17 metres in Budapest today. During floods the Danube rises well above 6 metres there. Long-awaited rainfall set in on Monday (September 9) is expected to raise Danube levels by the weekend, with the river likely to submerge the shipwrecks again. (Source: foxnews / Reuters)

11.9.2024 17:55  Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants to station about 200 soldiers in Chad to stem migration, after meeting Chadian leader Deby in Budapest. "Chad is a key country in the fight against illegal migration in Africa. Migration from Africa to Europe cannot be stopped without the countries of the Sahel region. That is why Hungary is building a partnership with Chad. We are working on this today and tomorrow with President Deby," Orbán stated. Bordering Sudan, Libya, Niger, and the Central African Republic, Chad, which as a population of approximately 19 million, occupies a crucial position in the Sahel strategic location. Its status as a key Western ally in a volatile part of the world, underscores its significance in the global geopolitical landscape. By deploying troops in Chad, Orbán has economic interests in the region. The Hungarian prime minister is also trying to score political points at a time when troops from EU member states like France have lost favor and are scaling down on their presence in the Sahel, Owusu, a Ghanaian political and security analyst, told. The abundant resources in the Sahel in terms of oil, uranium, gold, and other resources are yet to be exploited, Owusu said. "Gold, cobalt, lithium, and other resources are major pull factors that could pull Budapest to the Sahel, and they should not be overlooked." But while some think the deployment could significantly impact the security situation in the Sahel region, Owusu is skeptical. "Chad itself is far larger than Hungary and many Western European countries. Therefore, 200 troops may not make an impact," he emphasized. If Hungary is interested in Chad's resources, then perhaps eventually it will have to contribute more forces to ensure that such interests are well protected, Awusu added. Cummings, a security analyst at Signal Risk in South Africa, told that strategies the Sahelian states have used to counter armed non-state actors, usually from a military perspective, have not effectively addressed security challenges in the region. "Up until now, the strategy by Sahelian countries where they've leveraged off European or Western forces, or whether they've leveraged off Russian forces, focuses on addressing the symptoms and not the causes of these insurgencies or why these terrorist groups are receiving the support that they're receiving," Cummings said. Over the past year, Hungary has rapidly developed ties with Chad, opening a humanitarian aid center and diplomatic mission in the capital and signing agreements on agriculture and education. Hungary has a historically weak presence in Africa, but Orbán has championed a foreign policy of opening up to the East and South by seeking closer ties with China, Russia, and African countries. Marsai, director of the Migration Research Institute, said Budapest has also sought a more significant military role in the Sahel to train its defense forces. Hungary this time would need to provide everything by itself. This could pose significant challenges, particularly in terms of resources and coordination. Despite disagreements with Budapest, the European Union welcomed Hungary's initiative in Chad. Amid the domestic and regional challenges, "it is important for more international partners to work with Chad," an EU spokesperson told AFP news agency. But at home, the military mission has drawn criticism, with opposition parties branding the deployment 'dangerous and wasteful." The Hungarian government has also been accused of nepotism. The premier's only son, Gáspár, had discreetly participated in official negotiations. Budapest dismissed the criticism, pointing to Gáspár's language skills and expertise as a captain in the Hungarian army. He has since been appointed a "liaison officer to help prepare the mission in Chad." (Source: dw)

United Kingdom
(11 September 2024)  ’There are strong indications that the US and UK are poised to lift their restrictions within days on Ukraine using long-range missiles against targets inside Russia.’ ’The UK has supplied Storm Shadow long-range missiles to Ukraine’ after a request from Kyiv for its fight against invading Russian forces. Storm Shadow is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of around 250km. The French call it Scalp. It is launched from aircraft then flies at close to the speed of sound, hugging the terrain, before dropping down and detonating its high explosive warhead. Storm Shadow is considered an 'ideal' weapon for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores. Each missile costs nearly US$1 million. Britain and France have already sent these missiles to Ukraine - but with the caveat that Kyiv can only fire them at targets inside its own borders. They have been used with great effect, hitting Russia’s Black Sea naval headquarters at Sevastopol and making the whole of Crimea unsafe for the Russian navy. Kyiv has lobbied for its use inside Russia, particularly to target airfields being used to mount the glide bomb attacks that have recently hindered Ukrainian front-line efforts. Moscow has already taken precautions for the eventuality of the restrictions being lifted. It has moved bombers, missiles and some of the infrastructure that maintains them further back, away from the border with Ukraine and beyond the range of Storm Shadow. Even if Russian aircraft pull back further from Ukraine’s frontiers to avoid the missile threat they will still suffer an increase in the time and costs per sortie to the front line. At the Globsec security forum in Prague this month, it was suggested that Russian military airbases were better protected than Ukrainian civilians getting hit because of the restrictions. Kyiv argues that in order to push back the Russian air strikes, it needs long-range missiles, including Storm Shadow and comparable systems including American Atacms, which has an even greater range of 300km. ’Storm Shadow is unlikely to turn the tide’. ’It might "unlock' another system, the Atacms’. ’Washington worries that although so far all of President Putin’s threatened red lines have turned out to be 'empty bluffs', allowing Ukraine to hit targets deep inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles could just push him over the edge into retaliating. The fear in the White House is that hardliners in the Kremlin could insist this retaliation takes the form of attacking transit points for missiles on their way to Ukraine, such as an airbase in Poland. If that were to happen, Nato's Article 5 could be invoked, meaning the alliance would be at war with Russia. Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the White House's aim has been to give Kyiv as much support as possible without getting dragged into direct conflict with Moscow, something that would risk being a precursor to the unthinkable: a catastrophic nuclear exchange’. (Source: bbc)

North America

United States
Wednesday, September 11, 2024 8:31 pm CET   'Ukrainian hopes that U.S. Secretary of State Blinken would use the occasion of his Wednesday trip to Kyiv to announce a loosening of the rules preventing it from hitting targets inside Russia with donated weapons came to nothing". Kyiv is starting to regularly attack Russia 'with its own long-range weapons'. Today, the Arctic city of Murmansk, 2,000 kilometers to the north of Ukraine, shut two of its airports after reporting attacks by Ukrainian drones. A day earlier, Ukraine attacked Moscow and other targets inside Russia. Both the U.K. and the U.S promised continued military aid. UK FM Lammy announced over £600 million in humanitarian, military and economic support during the visit. Blinken announced $717 million in new economic and humanitarian assistance. Further supplies of Western weapons to Ukraine are 'fraught with uncontrolled escalation,' warned Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova today. 'And we’ve now seen this action of Russia 'acquiring ballistic missiles from Iran', which will further empower their aggression in Ukraine. So if anyone is taking escalatory action, it would appear to be Mr Putin and Russia,' Blinken said. He added: 'We're working with urgency to continue to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to effectively defend itself.' 'I can announce we will now also send hundreds of additional air defense missiles, tens of thousands of additional artillery ammunition rounds and more armored vehicles to Ukraine by the end of the year,' Lammy added. (Source: politico)

September 11, 2024 4:54pm EDT  During Tuesday night's presidential debate, former President Trump discussed his relationship with foreign leaders, - leaders of rival nations and allies alike during his term - most notably Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the "strongman" of Europe. "He’s a tough person, smart prime minister of Hungary," Trump said, adding that Orbán insisted "you need Trump back as president" because "they were afraid of him.’ "China was afraid, and I don’t like to use the word afraid, but I’m just quoting him," Trump said. 'China was afraid of him. He said Russia was afraid of him." "Look, Viktor Orbán said it: He said the most respected, most feared person is Donald Trump. We had no problems when Trump was president," Trump added. Trump also responded to Vice President Harris’ claim that he ’admires dictators, wants to be a dictator on day one" and he "exchanged love letters with Kim' by noting that Russian President Putin had endorsed her last week and said he hoped she wins 'because what he’s gotten away with is absolutely incredible.’ Trump said Russia's invasion of Ukraine would never have happened during his time in office, noting that he knew Putin 'very well." Trump has repeatedly compared his foreign policy record to that of the Biden administration, roping in Harris as part of that policy, and noted the more interventionist approach he took, using force as deterrence against Iran and meeting with Putin and North Korean leader Kim to ensure stability in regions faced with uncertainty. Trump and Orbán enjoyed a rosy relationship during the Trump administration, often pictured together smiling and shaking hands in sharp contrast to the more demure meetings between Orbán and Biden. During a visit to the U.S. in March, Orbán visited with Trump, not Biden, when trying to court potential foreign policy in the U.S. He also spoke at a panel with the leader of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. Orbán made headlines over the summer when he prematurely ditched a high-level NATO summit in Washington, D.C., to meet with Trump in Florida at a time when Biden faced questions about his fitness for office and in seeking a second term. Orbán was seeking a cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, having met separately with Putin and Zelenskyy. "We continued the peace mission in Mar-a-Lago," Orbán wrote on his official social media account on X after the meeting. "President @realDonaldTrump has proved during his presidency that he is a man of peace. He will do it again!" "It was an honour to visit President @realDonaldTrump at Mar-a-Lago today," he wrote in a separate post that labeled the visit "Peace mission 5.0." "We discussed ways to make peace. The good news of the day: he’s going to solve it!" Orbán, who assumed the role of president of the European Union as part of a six-month rotational leadership scheme,’joked’ at the time that Hungary would "make Europe great again" and ’warned’ that "the next American president will not be the same president who is today." He told other leaders at the formal NATO dinner that allies who still thought Biden could win the upcoming presidential election "were like people on the Titanic playing violins as the ship went down." (Source: foxnews)

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Europe

Russia
(Tuesday), 10/09/2024 - 14:11  Today Russia launched its largest navy drills of post-Soviet era alongside Chinese warships. China sent four warships and a supply vessel to the exercise, joining Russia's naval fleet in the Sea of Japan. The major naval exercise will see Moscow sail through waters spanning the Northern Hemisphere and Pacific. The wider drills will take place in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean, Caspian and Baltic Seas, and are set to become one of the Russian army's main operational and combat training events of 2024.The "Ocean-2024" drills will continue until September 16 and will involve more than 400 warships, submarines and other maritime vessels. Also taking part are more than 120 aircraft and helicopters, about 7,000 units of weapons, military and special equipment, and more than 90,000 personnel. President Putin will make an address formally opening the Russian-led exercise and will oversee them from a situation centre in the Kremlin. The Japanese defence ministry said it had observed five Chinese naval ships entering the Sea of Japan heading in the direction of Russia, sailed north-eastwards through the Tsushima Strait towards the Sea of Japan from Saturday to Sunday. The Tsushima Strait lies between South Korea and Japan and connects the South China Sea and the Sea of Japan and is not within Japanese territorial waters. (Source: france24 / AFP)

10.9.2024 10:21  Authorities temporarily shut down three airports outside Moscow -  Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky. The Russian capital was targeted with one of the heaviest waves of Ukrainian drones of the war, Moscow says. More than 140 Ukrainian drones targeted Russian regions, including Moscow and those on the border with Ukraine. It is the second such massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia this month. Overall, Russia's Defense Ministry said it "intercepted and destroyed" 144 Ukrainian drones over nine Russian regions. The Russian military on September 1 had intercepted 158 Ukrainian drones in more than a dozen Russian regions. At the time, Russian media described it as the biggest Ukrainian drone barrage since the start of the war. Meanwhile, Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu says Ukraine's cross-border attack on Russia's Kursk region last month has failed to distract Moscow's forces from their objectives, to slow the advance in the eastern Donbas region. "They are losing up to 2,000 killed and wounded every day. In total, if we talk about 8 days in September and August, almost 1,000 square kilometers of territory have been liberated. The pace is increasing," Shoigu said. Ukraine's air force shot down 38 out of 46 Russia-launched drones during an overnight attack across 13 regions. Russia also used two missiles in its attack. The Ukrainian Energy Ministry says Russian forces have attacked energy infrastructure in eight Ukrainian regions in the past 24 hours. The attacks had disrupted high-voltage lines and power substations. In the Cherkasy region, the strike damaged an infrastructure facility and caused a fire. Authorities in Kyiv reported no damage or casualties in the city itself. Moscow's forces have ground ahead through the Donetsk region in recent weeks, in the direction of Pokrovsk, a strategic logistics hub for Ukraine. (Source: dw)

NATO

10 Sep 2024  What the Indo-Pacific is becoming for the United States, Wider Mediterranean Africa (WiMedAf) will become for NATO's European members. NATO is preoccupied with its eastern flank, it does so at the risk of overlooking equally strategically important developments elsewhere. The African-Mediterranean region is crucial for European security. Of North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 32 members, nine face the Mediterranean Sea. Sicily is about 150 kilometres from the North African coast; the Canary Island of Fuerteventura is less than 100 kilometres west of Morocco. The Italian government uses the concept of "Wider Mediterranean” to refer not just to the area immediately around the Mediterranean, but spanning as far as the Middle East and Persian Gulf as well as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. It is an area of primary importance in which Italian interests are projected and must be protected for reasons of national security. Many countries here are already a vital supplier of gas, oil and raw materials for Europe. At least 40% of global maritime trade passes through WiMedAf waters. Beneath the waves, communication cables connect Europe to India and East Asia. The region is the starting point for migration waves that have pushed European politics to the right. By 2050, Africa alone ’is expected’ to be home to 25% of the global population. Countries like Egypt, Nigeria and Ethiopia have booming populations and are only going to grow in geopolitical significance. New tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, as a result of a defence deal between the former and Somalia, is an example of this. China, Russia and other revisionist powers are increasingly active in the WiMedAf region. China’s is based on loans, investment and trade, although many governments in the region are beginning to realize that all that glitters is not gold. Russia's is primarily one of hybrid warfare, such as the deployment of mercenaries, the massive use of disinformation, and supporting coups and subversive forces - evident from Libya to the Sahel and in the Central African Republic. Expanding the Wider Mediterranean definition even more, to cover the entire African continent, ’NATO needs to focus more’ on what is going on there, strengthening democracy and governance in the region by implementing ad hoc programmes in like-minded countries such as Cape Verde, Senegal, Mauritius and Ghana. It would also be important to strengthen ties with partly free countries such as Tunisia, Morocco, Kenya, Kuwait and Mozambique. NATO launched two partnership forums for WiMedAf countries – the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. Cooperation could include improving accountability in defence establishments, sharpening counter-terrorism capabilities and bolstering defence against cyber-attacks, disinformation and other hybrid warfare. NATO could also extend assistance in the event of pandemics and natural disasters as well as help WiMedAf energy exporters improve security of their infrastructure. It already has a blueprint for this kind of work, as it cooperates in these areas with countries like Moldova, Ukraine, Mongolia and Pakistan. NATO should increase its forward presence in the southern part of its territory just as it has already bolstered its eastern flank, reducing drug and human trafficking. It should not be interested in stationing military assets in this region, as Russia has done in Syria. Working more closely with African and Middle Eastern partners is not a roadmap to joining NATO - an option NATO's founding treaty forecloses on, anyway. The focus must be on working with organizations and governments that lean towards the West and support the rules-based international order. The recent appointment of a Special Representative for the Southern Neighbourhood, Spanish diplomat Colomina, was a step in this direction. The goal is democratic reform and knowledge exchange, not a new kind of European colonialism.
(Source: ’theparliamentmagazine.eu’ *)
* a monthly magazine, "owned by Dods', a British company (Total Politics Group, owned by Lord Ashcroft, a businessman and former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party)
by Catania, the director of the OGGNIL, a geopolitical think tank based in Italy

Globalization

10.09.24  International criminal law’s potential to adress online harms is Ukraine, Palestine, and beyond. Sharing footage of crimes to the internet, on social media is one of the harms, which has been particularly noticeable in both Ukraine and Palestine. Russian and Israeli combatants have allegedly filmed and uploaded violent footage of what likely constitute war crimes. In March and April 2023, two videos went viral circulated widely on Telegram and X of what appears to be Russian soldiers executing Ukrainian prisoners of war. In both instances, the videos could not be authenticated with absolute certainty, but information such as the clothing worn and language spoken suggested that Russian soldiers filmed the executions themselves and potentially shared them to wider audiences. This is also similar to content that has emerged from Palestine, where in addition to other imagery of alleged crimes, IDF soldiers have posted videos of Palestinian detainees stripped, blindfolded, and bound to TikTok, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram. In one particular video shared on Instagram by an account identifying as an IDF soldier, which was verified by Bellingcat, bound and blindfolded detainees, one with an Israeli flag tied to him, are shown on the ground while a soldier taunts them and throws dollar bills at them. A sticker of a praying Israeli soldier was added on top of the footage. These examples demonstrate the alleged perpetrators’ desire to further degrade and humiliate the victims through sharing the video online. Tthe soldiers depicted are mocking the detainees, dehumanise them, reducing them to tools to be used to boast about alleged crimes and spread propaganda. The psychological and moral harms that arise from sharing footage of crimes online are similar in nature to those previously recognised in ICL jurisprudence. For instance, in Al-Werfalli, the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber stated in its two arrest warrants that ‘the posting on social media of the videos depicting executions’ and ‘the manner in which the crime was committed and publicized was cruel, dehumanizing, and degrading’ (para. 29, para. 31). When images are posted online on social media, they essentially are thrown into permanent circulation. It is virtually impossible to stop the footage from being reshared. Victim’s families and friends may be forced to constantly relive their trauma. Members of the general public will also come across the violent content while scrolling online - another layer of harm that was not possible prior to the development of social media. Chambers at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in Furundžija and the Special Court for Sierra Leone in Fofana and Kondewa have acknowledged the serious mental harm that can come to third parties who witness violent acts committed against others. Secondary trauma to those who innocently view the videos can manifest in psychological ailments such as post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. Maliciously sharing the content online can conceivably constitute its own additional crime. The harms are recognised in elements of existing international crimes, including torture, the crime against humanity of ‘other inhumane acts’, and the war crimes of inhuman treatment, wilfully causing great suffering, and outrages upon personal dignity. Multiple domestic war crimes trials have convicted and sentenced perpetrators for similar acts for outrages upon personal dignity. Courts in The Netherlands, Finland, Germany, and Sweden have convicted individuals of the war crime of outrages upon personal dignity for posting photos and videos to social media of themselves posing with or mutilating corpses in the context of the conflict in Syria. The digital harm of filming and sharing footage of crimes has not yet been addressed by an international criminal court or tribunal.Given the violent nature of the footage previously mentioned that is coming out of Ukraine and Palestine can be marginalised and silenced victims of ‘new’ harms? The Russian and IDF soldiers seem to be boasting about their crimes in a similar way that the individuals prosecuted in domestic courts were posing with the bodies of victims. It is not unreasonable to speculate that these acts could be addressed in future prosecutions at courts such as the ICC. Their recognition by international legal institutions will be critical in order to ensure justice for victims in a digital age.
(Source: opiniojuris *)
* an independent blog, in partnership with the International Commission of Jurists
by Zarmsky, a PhD Candidate and Assistant Lecturer at the University of Essex Human Rights Centre with a focus on international law and new and emerging technologies. In 2023, she was a Visiting Scholar at the Human Rights Center at the University of California, Berkeley School of Law

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Germany
Monday, 9.9.2024 16:27  The ’far-right’ anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won state elections in the state of Thuringia last week and came second in another state, Saxony. Germany's coalition government has been consulting with the main "conservative opposition’ CDU and CSU parties on ways to curb migration in the face of public concern. German Interior Ministry Faeser's Social Democrats are facing a state election in Brandenburg in two weeks, where her party  -  which is also that of Chancellor Olaf Scholz -  governs in coalition with the Greens and Christian Democrats. The German Interior Ministry has announced an extension of passport controls along all of the country's land borders, aimed at curbing the number of people entering Germany without visas to limit irregular migration and address threats from Islamist terror groups and cross-border criminal organizations. In response to a sharp increase in first-time asylum requests last year, Germany had already imposed some repeatedly extended stricter controls on its borders with Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Switzerland. Germany shares more than 3,700 kilometers of land borders with Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland. All are fellow members of the Schengen Zone, within which there are usually no restrictions and checks on travel. The controls start from next Monday and are to initially set to last for six months. (Source: dw, "with dpa, Reuters')

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European Parliament
07/09/2024 - 8:00 GMT+2  Pending a confirmation vote by lawmakers, Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister wish the EU’s top diplomatic role - the High Representative for Foreign Policy - helming the bloc’s external action in regions including Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. She has a limited track record in diplomatic engagements beyond Europe’s eastern flank - her support for Ukraine has defined her rise to international recognition. Kallas is under pressure to prove she has the experience and commitment to steer the European Union’s diplomacy beyond its eastern flank. If Kallas is to let her support to Ukraine define her mandate, it could lead to further ambiguity over the famous question, "Who do I call if I want to call Europe?" coined by former US Secretary of State Kissinger. Some in Brussels fear Kallas' term in office will be inevitably centred on the war in Ukraine and the progressive erosion of the decision-making power of the High Representative - who can only act with the unanimous endorsement of all 27 member states - means the EU's relevance in the Global South could further diminish. And Von der Leyen has pledged to appoint a new European Commissioner for the Mediterranean. It means the current portfolio of Várhelyi will be split to delineate the so-called 'enlargement' countries - both in the Western Balkans and the Eastern flank - from other neighbourhood countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The decision is a reflection of von der Leyen's double standards in how she views cooperation with the two regions, Amnesty International's Baoumi said. The enlargement group will be more values-driven, seeking to anchor democracy, stability and rule of law, whereas the Commissioner for the Mediterranean will focus more on issues connected to energy, security, migration and quite vague cooperation in areas of mutual interest. "This is a very clear message that the promotion of human rights, democracy and the rule of law is reserved for a certain group of countries that have a future in the European Union." Others say that the damage that has been wrought on the EU’s reputation in the Middle East and the Global South during Borrell's mandate is irreparable - the EU has lost whatever remaining credibility, clout or influence it had in recent years, and Kallas will hardly be able to change anything at all. Among Borrell's proposals to exert diplomatic pressure on Israel are sanctioning extremist Israeli ministers and convening Israel to discuss its compliance with human rights obligations in the EU-Israel cooperation agreement. He has manoeuvered to table these proposals despite member states' objections. The risk for Kallas is not being able to learn the lessons of previous High Representatives in terms of how you deal with the member state dynamics and internal decision-making processes. Under Kallas, more "pro-Israel' decision-makers within the wider executive, including Commission president von der Leyen herself, could wield more influence on the bloc’s response to the Gaza war. Von der Leyen faced fierce criticism for her immediate response to the conflict when she failed to speak up about the humanitarian emergency engulfing the Gaza Strip. Civil servants have accused the institution that employs them of failing to uphold its ideals of human rights, peace and the rule of law. Powerful civil servants within the European External Action Service (EEAS) bureaucracy have aimed to tighten their grip on the EU’s Middle East policy. A greater role for the Commissioner for the Mediterranean in the EU's relations with Middle Eastern countries could mean Kallas' relevance as an actor in the region being further diluted. (Source: euronews / „EP’/

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United States
September 6, 2024  Planning for a post-American NATO, „Europe must prepare for a second Trump term”. By the end of January 2025, the Europe’s most important partner, the United States, could be led by former President Trump, who has said that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell it wanted” to European countries that did not do what he wanted: spend more on defense. Freed from the influence of the traditional Atlanticist Republicans who staffed his cabinet in his first term, a second-term Trump would face fewer obstacles to making good on his threats. The magnitude of the change that a Trump victory could bring is far too great for Europe to sit by and hope that the former president loses at the ballot box. European governments stuck their heads in the sand. Trump has ’warned’ that he would immediately cut all U.S. aid to Kyiv and demand a quick end to the war, which would likely require Ukraine to cede a significant part of its territory to Russia. And that could just be the start. Trump has long questioned the value of NATO, so it is not inconceivable that he would strip back the U.S. commitment to defend Europe. He could enact the analyst Maitra’s widely circulated “dormant NATO” proposal, in which the U.S. military would provide logistics support as a last resort but leave all other NATO defense responsibilities to Europe, or follow in the footsteps of French President de Gaulle, who removed France from NATO’s military command (but not the alliance itself) in 1966. There is no reason Trump could not act quickly. As commander in chief, he could vow never to order U.S. troops to fight for Europe and take steps to withdraw the United States from NATO’s military command. Without the United States to provide military leadership and capability, European capitals could quickly turn against one another over Ukraine. Countries in central and eastern Europe, for instance, may double down on their commitment to the survival of a strong Ukraine, fearing that a Russian victory would give Moscow the opportunity to rebuild, rearm, and then, with the help of a compliant Belarus and Ukraine, issue new threats across the border. Many western European countries, meanwhile, might decide that, with the United States out of the picture, the best option would be to force Ukraine to make extensive concessions to Russia. A European security alliance could collapse under the weight of such incompatible outlooks. European countries and institutions must start planning now. The continent’s leaders will need to grapple with many hard questions. The most urgent among them fall into three categories: how to structure European security, who should lead the effort, and what capabilities Europe must acquire.     The most straightforward and best solution would be for Europe to assume control of the North Atlantic Council, the decision-making authority within NATO, being familiar to all NATO countries in Europe and having an established secretariat. European countries could also repurpose NATO facilities, such as the NATO Defense College, that are scattered across the continent. ’The new NAC could draw upon other European institutions for support, too. The EU, for example, could help coordinate the national legislative change and bloc-wide financial planning that will be necessary to prepare European societies for a potential conflict’. ’And although the NAC would remain the primary decision-making body for NATO members’, the European Political Community, which was established after Russia’s 2022 invasion and counts several non-NATO countries among its members, would play an important role as a forum for discussing security matters that affect the region as a whole. European countries have essentially outsourced geopolitical leadership to the United States for the last 75 years or so. ’No European country has experience with that job, and there is no natural leader for the rest to converge upon’. Berlin, crippled by political indecision, has failed to display leadership so far in the war in Ukraine. Having cozied up to Russia before the 2022 invasion, and joining the United States in limiting aid to Ukraine after, Germany has lost the trust of many of the central and eastern European countries that fear ending up on a new frontline. The openly pro-Russian positions espoused by the ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany and ’far-left’ Reason and Justice parties, both of which made strong showings in last weekend’s regional elections, raise additional concerns. France could be a better option. As one of Europe’s two nuclear powers, France would necessarily play an important and immediate role in European security if the United States were to withdraw. The French have a competent military. Yet Paris, like Berlin, carries serious liabilities. In the early months of the invasion, Macron favored reaching some kind of arrangement with Russian President Putin, and today, politicians on France’s increasingly empowered ’far right’ and far left, as in Germany, seriously discuss cutting aid to Ukraine. The United Kingdom, Europe’s other nuclear power, would bring many positive attributes to the leadership role. London, as a ’consistent supporter’ of Ukraine, is aligned with Europe’s frontline countries. The United Kingdom also has long-standing defense ties with fellow members of the Joint Expeditionary Force, a military grouping of ten Baltic, Scandinavian, and other northern European nations. But after its 2016 decision to leave the EU, it is almost impossible to see EU countries agreeing to British strategic command. Europe could seize the opportunity to make a less conventional choice for its security leadership. Poland has emerged as a strong candidate. It is a large country with a growing economy, and it took defense seriously even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Over the past few years, Warsaw has undertaken the most substantial military buildup on the continent, increasing both the fraction of its GDP spent on defense and the forces deployed to its borders with Belarus and the Russian enclave Kaliningrad, and its defense budget target of five percent of GDP for 2025 outpaces the rest of Europe. ’Already seen as a leader in central and eastern Europe’, Poland understands frontline countries’ concerns about Russia in a way that a western European government cannot. Given that Poland shares a border with Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, its military would be critical ’in a larger war with Russia’. Warsaw, aware of this, is now expending significant resources to upgrade its army and air force. Before the war in Ukraine, a land-centric military such as Poland’s would not have been considered capable of leading European forces. But NATO’s traditional emphasis on air and sea domains was largely a function of the centrality of the United States, which relied on long-range air and sea capabilities to project power across the Atlantic. Without Washington, the picture changes. If Europe is defending itself, its land power, supported by tactical airpower, becomes its bulwark. Thus, once Poland expands its air force - it is now amassing one of Europe’s largest fleets of F-35 and F-16 fighter jets - the country will have a striking case for security leadership. 'If the need arises, a Polish officer could be selected as the first supreme allied commander for a European NATO'. This choice would make political and strategic sense to show both frontline states and Russia that Europe is serious about protecting its eastern flank. A strong signal of this kind is sorely needed; the appointed successor to Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary-general, Mark Rutte, most recently served as prime minister of the Netherlands, a country that has consistently failed to meet the NATO defense spending target of two percent of GDP. Elevating a Polish commander would also smooth the way for a civilian leader from western Europe, ensuring the political balance that would be crucial to European unity in the early stages of post-American security planning. Europe has outsourced many essential defense capabilities to the United States. It has neglected to develop the basic capabilities it would need if the United States were to draw down. Perhaps the most glaring among them is a system for intelligence sharing among European states. For decades, Europe has relied on the Five Eyes - the intelligence network that includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States - to conduct much of its intelligence work. The United States does the bulk of the data collection - high-end, space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. Washington’s retreat from Europe would thus disrupt the flow of information. European countries would have to rely on local sources for data collection and analysis. Setting up the architecture to share intelligence among European NATO members will be a challenge in the absence of U.S. leadership. Althoug reams of data, it turns out, do not always produce good intelligence or insight. Some of the best intelligence work on Russia over the past few years has in fact come from smaller countries with more specialized knowledge. The Baltic states and the Nordic states, for instance, have consistently provided useful information about Russian capabilities and intentions. Ukraine, too, has done a credible job analyzing Russian strengths and weaknesses, and ’Kyiv’s intelligence capacity has enabled operations such as a strategic air campaign against Russian oil production’. Europe’s country-by-country weapons production is also wildly inefficient. Across the ten main categories of major weapons systems - such as fighter aircraft or destroyers - the United States maintains 33 types of systems. Europe maintains 174. This has limited European militaries’ interoperability and created a logistic nightmare. Decades of peace and Europe’s concentration on boutique capabilities have also left the continent with insufficient weapons arsenals. Individual countries’ protectionist impulses to bring investments home would replicate the inefficiencies of Europe’s small-scale, national weapons production. „European countries have not moved as quickly as the United States to address their production capacity shortfalls - a problem they will need to rectify in order to plan for an end to or a drastic reduction in U.S. material support for Ukraine’. The European Political Community should negotiate a framework for joint - its own - research and development. The task has largely been farmed out to the United States. NATO’s London-based Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic, which became operational last year, has begun to extract lessons from the war in Ukraine, especially regarding dual-use technologies that originate in the civilian sphere - European countries could repurpose and expand this model to fill the resulting gap. Logistically, Europe would have to confront issues around deployability. „Without U.S. capabilities, European militaries could not maintain any kind of global presence; they do not have the capacity for long-distance air deployments of fighting units on their own”. Europe will need to invest in the full breadth of tactical airpower, while it integrates the capacities of European militaries. „European NATO might have to confront life without the U.S. nuclear deterrent”, it would also need to build up a credible European nuclear deterrent, separate from the United States. In the long term, the nuclear deterrent would have to be fully Europeanized. A United States with little military presence on the continent - and with an administration that looks rather benignly at Putin - could not credibly warn Europe’s enemies that it would put its nuclear weapons in play ’in the event of an attack’. ’This is not to say Europe should reject a slimmed-down U.S. deterrent if a Trump administration were to offer’. In the short term, the job would fall to France and the United Kingdom, which both have small nuclear arsenals. The immediate challenge will be ’coordinating the deployment’ and refitting of the British and French nuclear arsenals. Furthermore, ’London and Paris must begin to expand their deterrents to the rest of the continent’. Europe’s nuclear capacity would need to be fully independent. As long as Russia maintains its vast nuclear arsenal, Europe will need to protect itself from Russian nuclear blackmail. Europe would have to manufacture a nuclear delivery system. At present, European states have the ability to produce nuclear warheads on their own. But they have outsourced the means to deliver those warheads -the United Kingdom today shares a nuclear missile fleet with the United States. (Source: foreignaffairs)
by O’Brien, Head of the School of International Relations and Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews; Stringer, a senior fellow at Policy Exchange, a retired RAF Air Marshal, and former Director General of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom.

September 06, 2024   "Many of the recruits drafted under Ukraine’s new conscription law lack the motivation and military indoctrination required to actually aim their weapons and fire at Russian soldiers. “Some people don’t want to shoot. They see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don’t open fire… That is why our men are dying,' said a frustrated battalion commander in Ukraine’s 47th Brigade. “When they don’t use the weapon, they are ineffective.' In Ukraine, an expanded military draft has failed to overcome the reality that most young Ukrainians do not want to kill and die in an endless, unwinnable war. Hardened veterans see new recruits much as Sassoon described the British conscripts he was training in November 1916 in Memoirs of an Infantry Officer: “The raw material to be trained was growing steadily worse. Most of those who came in now had joined the Army unwillingly, and there was no reason why they should find military service tolerable.” U.S. Brigadier General “Slam” Marshall, a First World War veteran and the chief combat historian of the U.S. Army in the Second World War conducted hundreds of post-combat small group sessions with U.S. troops in the Pacific and Europe, and documented his findings in his book, Men Against Fire: the Problem of Battle Command. One of Marshall’s most startling and controversial findings was that only about 15% of U.S. troops in combat actually fired their weapons at the enemy. In no case did that ever rise above 25%, even when failing to fire placed the soldiers’ own lives in greater danger. Marshall concluded that most human beings have a natural aversion to killing other human beings, often reinforced by our upbringing and religious beliefs, and that turning civilians into effective combat soldiers therefore requires training and indoctrination expressly designed to override our natural respect for fellow human life. This dichotomy between human nature and killing in war is now understood to lie at the root of much of the PTSD suffered by combat veterans. Marshall’s conclusions were incorporated into U.S. military training, with the introduction of firing range targets that looked like enemy soldiers and deliberate indoctrination to dehumanize the enemy in soldiers’ minds. When he conducted similar research in the Korean War, Marshall found that changes in infantry training based on his work in World War II had already led to higher firing ratios. That trend continued in Vietnam and more recent U.S. wars. Part of the shocking brutality of the U.S. hostile military occupation of Iraq stemmed directly from the dehumanizing indoctrination of the U.S. occupation forces, which included falsely linking Iraq to the September 11th terrorist crimes in the U.S. and labeling Iraqis who resisted the U.S. invasion and occupation of their country as “terrorists.' A Zogby poll of U.S. forces in Iraq in February 2006 found that 85% of U.S. troops believed their mission was to 'retaliate for Saddam’s role in the 9/11 attacks,' and 77% believed that the primary reason for the war was to 'stop Saddam from protecting Al Qaeda in Iraq.” This was all pure fiction, cut from whole cloth by propagandists in Washington, and yet, three years into the U.S. occupation, the Pentagon was still misleading U.S. troops to falsely link Iraq with 9/11'. 'The response of the U.S. political class to the blowback from its catastrophic wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was simply to avoid large deployments of U.S. ground forces or “boots on the ground.” They instead embraced the use of devastating bombing and artillery campaigns in Afghanistan, Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria, and wars fought by proxies, with full, “ironclad” U.S. support, in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and now Ukraine and Palestine. The absence of large numbers of U.S. casualties in these wars kept them off the front pages back home and avoided the kind of political blowback generated by the wars in Vietnam and Iraq. The lack of media coverage and public debate meant that most Americans knew very little about these more recent wars, until the shocking atrocity of the genocide in Gaza finally started to crack the wall of silence and indifference. The results of these U.S. proxy wars are, predictably, no less catastrophic than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. domestic political impacts have been mitigated, but the real-world impacts in the countries and regions involved are as deadly, destructive and destabilizing as ever, undermining U.S. “soft power' and pretensions to global leadership in the eyes of much of the world. In fact, these policies have widened the yawning gulf between the worldview of ill-informed Americans who cling to the view of their country as a country at peace and a force for good in the world, and people in other countries, especially in the Global South, who are ever more outraged by the violence, chaos and poverty caused by the aggressive projection of U.S. military and economic power, whether by U.S. wars, proxy wars, bombing campaigns, coups or economic sanctions'. As Israeli and Ukrainian leaders see their political support crumbling, Netanyahu and Zelenskyy are taking increasingly desperate risks, all the while insisting that the U.S. must come to their rescue. By “leading from behind,' our leaders have surrendered the initiative to these foreign leaders, who will keep pushing the United States to make good on its promises of unconditional support, which will sooner or later include sending young American troops to kill and die alongside their own. (Source: counterpunch)
by Davies, an independent journalist, the author of Blood on Our Hands: The American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq, and War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict, co-authored with Benjamin.

Globalization

6 Sep 2024 at 12:20  Over the past 12 months, the global average temperature was 1.64°C higher than pre-industrial levels, above the 1.5°C threshold that policymakers and scientists say threatens life on the planet. The European Union's (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that for June to August, global temperatures were 0.69 degrees Celsius above historical averages, beating the previous high set last year. The record for the world's highest average temperature was broken on a number of days over the summer. In Europe, the heat over the June to August period was 1.54°C above the 1991-2020 average, according to Copernicus. The most extreme conditions were recorded in the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe, while the United Kingdom, Iceland, parts of Ireland, the west coast of Portugal and southern Norway were cooler than the norm. And parts of the Southern Hemisphere just had a very mild winter, with Australia experiencing the hottest August since data started in 1910 and looking forward to a warmer-than-average spring. This summer the effects of a strong El Niño weather pattern, which causes warming in the Pacific Ocean, started giving way to the La Niña phenomenon. This shift usually means less extreme heat, but it can also bring droughts in some areas and produces flooding and hurricanes elsewhere. (Source: bangkokpost)

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United States
Sep 1, 2024, 2:00 PM GMT+2  America isn’t ready for another war - because it doesn’t have the troops. Having been burned by massive threat inflation over terrorism in the post-9/11 era, Americans may be understandably skeptical of the gravity of the Russian or Chinese threat to the United States. A record dented by two decades of defeat has undermined the US military’s self-anointed status as the 'finest fighting force the world has ever known,' leading to a significant decline in public trust. Though some might call the US military 'America’s team,' it hasn’t won a game since Desert Storm, before most of its current members were born. A 2019 Pew Research Center survey found that 58 and 64 percent of veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq, respectively, say those conflicts were not worth fighting. A political horseshoe effect has helped cement this: both leftists and right-wingers publicly advocate for refusing to fight what they call unnecessary, unwinnable wars, with an especially sharp decline in enlistments by white men and women. America did away with the draft 51 years ago, waging its many wars and interventions since with the All-Volunteer Force (AVF). But “all-volunteer” is a misnomer. Americans aren’t lining up to serve, and the AVF is really an all-recruited force. Its previous annual recruitment of about 150,000 mostly young Americans, who are individually located, pitched, and incentivized to serve, comes at considerable effort and expense. The United States got through two foreign wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with the AVF - though neither war was a victory. A war with Russia, China, Iran, or North Korea would be an entirely different proposition, with the possibility of more casualties in a few weeks than the United States suffered in the entire Global War on Terrorism. But as crises overseas multiply, the immediate existential threat to the AVF, and ultimately to US security, is at home: There aren’t enough Americans willing and able to fill the military’s ranks. Three of America’s four major military services failed to recruit enough servicemembers in 2023. The Army has failed to meet its manpower goals for the last two years and missed its 2023 target by 10,000 soldiers, a 20 percent shortfall. Today, the active-duty Army stands at 445,000 soldiers, 41,000 fewer than in 2021 and the smallest it has been since 1940. The Navy and Air Force missed their recruiting goals, too, the Navy failing across the board. The Marine Corps was the only service to achieve its targets (not counting the tiny Space Force). But the Marines’ success is partially attributable to significant force structure cuts as part of its Force Design 2030 overhaul. As a result, Marine recruiters have nearly 19,000 fewer active duty and selected reserve slots to fill today than they did as recently as 2020. Recruiting challenges have impacted the reserve components even more severely than the active duty force. The National Guard and Reserves have been shrinking since 2020. Last year, the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve each missed their recruiting targets by 30 percent. The Army Reserve had just 9,319 enlistees after aiming to recruit 14,650 new soldiers. Numbers for the Navy Reserve were just as bad - the service missed its enlisted and officer targets by 35 and 40 percent, respectively. Should a true national security emergency arise, America lacks the ability to mobilize as Israel and Russia have done. The Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) - comprising former active duty or selected reserve personnel who could be reactivated by the Secretary of Defense during wartime or a national emergency - is designed to act as a bridge from the AVF to a revived draft. Almost forgotten even by servicemembers, the IRR earned brief notoriety when some servicemembers were “stop-lossed' during the Iraq War - pulled from the IRR and returned to active duty involuntarily, usually to deploy again. Today, there are just over 264,000 servicemembers in the entire IRR. The Army’s IRR pool has shrunk from 700,000 in 1973 to 76,000 in 2023. The IRR is now incapable of even providing sufficient casualty replacements for losses from the first battles of a high-intensity war. Even if more Americans could be encouraged to sign up, they may not be able to serve. Before Covid, fewer than three in 10 Americans in the prime recruiting demographic - ages 17 to 24 - were eligible to serve in uniform. Those numbers have shrunk further since the pandemic began. Only 23 percent of young Americans are qualified to enlist without a waiver, based on the most recent data. Endemic youth obesity, record levels of physical unfitness, mental health issues exacerbated by the Covid pandemic, and drug use have rendered the vast majority of young Americans ineligible for military service. Scores on the ASVAB - the military’s standardized exam for recruits, which tests aptitude for service - plummeted during the pandemic. The introduction of a new military health system in 2022, MHS Genesis, has also hamstrung recruiting. Fewer than 10 percent of Americans aged 16 to 21 say they would seriously consider signing up, according to a 2022 poll from the Pentagon’s Office of People Analytics. Those interested in serving are largely motivated by material factors. Respondents cited pay, college tuition aid, travel opportunities, health benefits, and acquiring career skills as the top five reasons for considering military service. Only 24 percent said they would join the military out of a sense of pride or honor. Though the US population has increased by more than 50 percent since the end of the draft, the AVF has come to rely on a smaller and smaller share of the nation. In the all-recruited force, it is military families that have inexorably become the primary providers of new recruits. Nearly 80 percent of recent Army enlistees have a veteran in their family - for almost 30 percent, it’s a parent. In the half-century since the AVF’s birth, "the US military has become a family business'. This entrenchment of a “warrior caste' presents a long-term danger to democracy: A citizenry disconnected from its military can become indifferent to the missions it performs. Civilian oversight and accountability suffer when the military is insulated from public scrutiny and understanding. The percentage of veterans in Congress has declined precipitously in the 50 years of the AVF’s existence. But the immediate danger is more concrete. Should the majority of military families decide the nation is unworthy of their children’s service, as may already be happening, the AVF will become unsustainable. The worst of the recruiting crisis is still to come. American birth rates plummeted after the 2008 financial crisis: A “baby bust” saw almost 2.3 million fewer children born between 2008 and 2013 than had been projected before the crisis. The number of American 18-year-olds is set to peak in 2025 at 9.4 million, before dropping to about 8 million by 2029. With another baby bust during the Covid-19 pandemic, the following generation will likely be even smaller. Army surveys of Americans aged 16 to 28 conducted in 2022 revealed that the top two reasons this cohort wouldn’t consider serving were fear of death and concerns about post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The reality is that less than 15 percent of enlisted military personnel are assigned a combat role, and far fewer ever find themselves in a firefight. Policymakers’ refusal to cut missions and offload defense burdens to wealthy allies greatly exacerbates the strain on the All-Volunteer Force. Though the United States is not at war, its military remains highly active, with constant deployments to Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Some branches and military communities, like armor, air defense, and aircraft carriers, struggle to maintain even a 2-1 ratio of “dwell to deploy” (the Pentagon’s desired ratio is three years at home for every year overseas). This unsustainable pace burns out soldiers, erodes morale, and helps fuel an epidemic of military suicides. The strong post-Covid labor market has limited the economic appeal of military employment. Relocation for servicemembers, which occurs every 2.5 years on average, puts additional stress on families and runs counter to the desire for stability people generally gain as they age. Poor on-base housing, potential food insecurity, and a high spousal unemployment rate are unappealing for young Americans looking to start their careers and families. Gen Z, which already constitutes about 40 percent of military personnel, views serving in the armed forces through a different lens than the millennials who came before them (and who made up the majority of the fighting force in Iraq and Afghanistan). This “network generation” is immersed in the digital world, distrustful of institutional authority, and often viewed as psychologically fragile. Going back to the standard AVF recruiting playbook - signing bonuses, waivers for substandard fitness or education, new slogans, and expensive ad campaigns - is unlikely to solve the problem. Some analysts have proposed that the US military relax its standards to acquire more technically skilled recruits. But such a move risks undermining the universal standards that undergird the military’s egalitarianism and common culture - critical advantages in the crucible of combat. And despite the drones and the tech, modern war still requires soldiers who can endure the physical demands of high-intensity combat. The Army has taken a dramatic step toward increasing its recruiting pool by standing up the Future Soldier Preparatory Course, a remedial program for motivated recruits who nonetheless fail to meet initial entry standards. Future Soldier Prep will take in nearly 20,000 recruits this year, which may enable the Army to make its lower recruiting mission. A longer-term solution could involve minimizing the friction of moving between civilian life, reserve service, and active duty service - a concept known as “permeability.” But breaking down the existing barriers to both entering and leaving service strikes at the heart of the US military’s view of itself as a profession, not a part-time job. The massive militaries that fought existential conflicts like the American Civil War and World War II were filled not merely with volunteers, but millions of conscripts. There has been no serious attempt to restore American military conscription since compulsory military service ended in 1973. While America is unlikely to ever again need the 12 million servicemen and women it had in 1945, clearly failing recruiting efforts may at least prompt a reexamination of compulsory service. Absent a draft or major structural reform to AVF recruiting and retention, the US military will struggle not to shrink. The recruiting crisis is a greater national security threat to the United States than the wars that currently dominate the headlines. No amount of high-tech wizardry has changed this enduring reality of warfare. (Source: wox *)
* Wox, an American news and opinion website

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France
2 August 2024  Destroying the world in French style, anything goes, nothing stands. What we saw a week ago at the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympiad, the meticulous cancellation of the Western culture that the French organisers presented to the world is the result of many decades of cultural preparation - ’wokeness’, the outcome of cultural Marxism, which sprang from Europe and took over the United States through the so-called Frankfurt School, before returning to the Old Continent via France. Leftist intellectuals, who fled from wartime Europe to the United States and nested in Ivy League universities, began their campaign of undermining and dismantling Western values in the first post-war decades. And while the United States have been at the forefront of this global movement, its European hub has undoubtedly been France. After the first generation of mostly German-born intellectuals laid the foundations, it was French thinkers who picked up and cemented the campaign of Western deconstruction. Theorists like Horkheimer, Adorno, Marcuse, Benjamin and Habermas passed the baton to thinkers like Derrida, Foucault, Lyotard, Baudrillard, Deleuze, Barthes, or Guattari. The word is ’postmodernism’ and it succeeds the so-called critical theory. Also known as post-structuralism, it has created a cultural environment where anything goes, nothing stands, no authority is to be respected anymore. Its repercussions are actually to be found everywhere. Linguists will say that language is but an arbitrary field, where nothing can be safely signified. Philosophers will claim that formal logic does not hold water anymore. Architects and artists will challenge traditional norms and notions of beauty and harmony only to replace them with brutality and shock value. Classical ethics and aesthetics are therefore revisited in order to be cancelled. This is the prevalent ideology of a world where there is no good and bad, no right and wrong, male or female, no genders or nations and of course, no Christian God. What Nietzsche first suggested in the context of farce and folly has now become the norm. Present day multiculturalism, demographic substitution, erosion of the nuclear family, LGBTQ cult frenzy and the ’woke’ movement as a whole would not have been possible without the post-structural movement. And the post-structural movement would not have been possible without the French. Under this light, we shall understand that the monstrosity unveiled before our eyes last week’s Paris Olympics opening ceremony was no circumstantial phenomenon. The French did not just manifest, but also celebrated and showed off what they have been doing to us all for about half a century. So do we just say c’est la vie and move on? For the time being it looks like the French way has taken over on a global systemic level. But in order to battle this overall degeneration, we first need to properly understand what it is, and where it comes from. Interestingly enough conservatism as a movement has been founded exactly on the opposition of Burke to the French revolution. In his 1790 pamphlet Reflections on the Revolution in France, the Irish-born British intellectual foresaw and predicted the bloodbath and consequent European war that would come out of the violent toppling of the French monarchy. Almost two and a half centuries later, it is conservatism once again that offers a realistic perspective of what is happening in today’s world, and presents the only set of values and principles which give an alternative to the destruction of our world. The Marathon of our generation has begun. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)
By Bogdanos

European Commission
02/08/2024 23:46 GMT+2  In a letter addressed to Hungary's Ministry of Interior, dated 1 August, Johansson, the Europen Commissioner for Home Affairs questions the fresh changes to the country's National Card scheme, which simplifies visa procedures and security background checks for "guest workers" in specific sectors. The permit lasts for two years and can be renewed for an additional three, paving the way for qualifying for permanent residency. The country opened the National Card to applicants from Ukraine, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Moldova,  Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. In early July, coinciding with the start of Hungary's presidency of the EU Council and Viktor Orbán's trip to Moscow, the country extended the National Card to citizens from Russia and Belarus. Budapest says many of these workers will be employed in the construction of a nuclear plant using Russian technology. The update initially went unnoticed until Weber, the chair of the centre-left European People's Party (EPP), sent a letter in late July to European Council President Michel, demanding a discussion at the leaders' level. The ’questionable’ new rules ’create grave loopholes for espionage activities’ and could enable large numbers of Russians to enter Hungary ’with minimal supervision, posing a serious risk to national security,’ Weber said in his letter. Each member state is entitled to design and implement its own visa requirements. Orbán's spokesperson described Weber's words as "absurd and hypocritical" and said Hungary's migration system was the "strictest" in the bloc. ’We must remain vigilant as Russia employs every unconventional tool to destabilise the European Union and its values,’ Johansson says in her missive. Russian and Belarusian citizens are still allowed to enter EU territory.  (Source: Euronews - Lyon, France)

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Europe

European Commission
AUGUST 1, 2024 4:55 PM CET ’EU snubs Hungary and Slovakia over Ukraine oil sanctions’. Following Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU imposed an embargo on imports of Russian oil but exempted pipeline supplies — including those coming to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline — to give those countries time to find alternative sources, with the understanding they would do so rapidly. In June, Ukraine was blocking the transit of pipeline crude sold by Moscow’s largest private oil firm, Lukoil, to Central Europe, prompting fears of supply shortages in Budapest and Bratislava. Kyiv was violating a wide-spanning 2014 trade agreement with Brussels. Last month, the two countries sent a letter to the EU executive, urging it to open emergency consultations with Ukraine over the move — a precursor to legal action. But the European Commission rebuffed the demand. The Commission has no plans to begin formal talks with Ukraine after Kyiv imposed a partial ban on exports of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, the EU executive said on Thursday. ’Urgent consultations do not appear to be guaranteed,’it said, arguing that in the Commission's preliminary assessment, the sanctions do not pose ’an immediate risk to [both countries'] security of supply.’ The Commission was still ’verifying facts’; it had responded to the Slovak and Hungarian letter with a request for more information. European Commission declines to open formal talks with Kyiv after its Central European neighbors complained it was violating the 2014 trade deal. After meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Thursday, EU trade chief Dombrovskis said that oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia were ’not affected, as long as Lukoil is not [the] owner of the oil.’ (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Russia
8:21 PM CEST, August 1, 2024  Who’s in the massive civilian prisoner swap between Russia and the West?        Released by Russia and Belarus:    Fadeyeva, 32, Chanysheva, 42, and Ostanin, 47 - former coordinators of regional offices of the late opposition figure Navalny - arrested after Navalny’s political network was outlawed in 2021; later convicted of extremism. Fadeyeva, and Ostanin, each sentenced to 9 years in prison, Chanysheva, convicted in 2023 of extremism charges, widely seen as politically motivated, got a 9 1/2-year term.    Gershkovich, 32, a Wall Street Journal reporter, detained in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg in March 2023, accused of “gathering secret information” at the CIA’s behest about a military equipment factory,     Kara-Murza, 42, a dual Russian-U.K. citizen and opposition politician. He fell ill in 2015 and 2017 from near-fatal poisonings he blamed on the Kremlin. A columnist for The Washington Post, he was arrested in 2022 after criticizing the war in Ukraine; convicted in 2023 of treason and other charges; sentenced to 25 years in prison in a case he rejected as politically motivated. His wife said his health deteriorated in prison as a result of the poisonings. He was awarded the Pulitzer Prize this year.     Krieger, a German medical worker, convicted in Belarus of terrorism charges in June, sentenced to death; pardoned Tuesday by President Lukashenko.    Kurmasheva, 47, a dual U.S.-Russian national, the Prague-based editor for the U.S. government-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Tatar-Bashkir service, arrested visiting her ailing mother in 2023 in her hometown of Kazan; accused of not self-reporting as a “foreign agent”; convicted in July of spreading false information about the Russian military; sentenced to 6½ years in prison.     Lik, 19, a dual Russian-German national, arrested in southern Russia in 2023, accused of taking photos of a military unit and sending them to a “representative of a foreign state.” Court officials said he opposed to the war in Ukraine. He was convicted of treason and sentenced to four years in prison. Lik was 17 at the time of his arrest.    Moyzhesm, a dual Russian-German national, a migration lawyer who helped Russians apply for European Union residence permits; arrested in May in St. Petersburg, reportedly accused of treason. ’Little else is known about his case’.    Orlov, 71, co-chairman of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning human rights group Memorial, a veteran human rights campaigner, convicted of repeated, publicly discrediting the Russian military, sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison in February for his protests of the war in Ukraine. He has rejected the charges as politically motivated.    Pipovarov, 42, headed the opposition group Open Russia, outlawed in 2021; pulled off a flight and arrested that same year. In 2022, convicted of carrying out activities of an “undesirable” organization, sentenced to four years in prison. He has rejected the charges as politically motivated.    Skochilenko, 33, artist and musician, convicted for replacing several price tags in a supermarket with anti-war slogans; sentenced to seven years in prison in November 2023.    Schoebel, a German national, arrested in February 2024 at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg when gummies containing a psychoactive component of cannabis were allegedly found in his possession; detained since then, facing drug-smuggling charges.     Yashin, a former municipal deputy of the Krasnoselsky district in Moscow,, a Kremlin critic, serving an 8 1/2-year sentence for criticizing Russia’s war in Ukraine. He was one of the few well-known opposition activists to stay in Russia since the war.    Voronin, a dual Russian-German national, a political scientist who ran a consultancy that reportedly collaborated with journalists, arrested in 2021, convicted of treason in 2023 and sentenced to 13 years and three months in prison. He was implicated in the treason trial of Safronov, who allegedly passed him information on Russian military activities, which Voronin allegedly then gave to German intelligence.    Whelan, 54, a corporate security executive, attending a friend’s wedding, arrested in 2018 in Moscow,, accused of espionage, convicted in 2020 and sentenced to 16 years in prison.         Released by the West:    Dultsev and Dultseva, a Russian couple arrested on espionage charges in Ljubljana, Slovenia, in 2022. Posing as Argentine citizens, they reportedly had used Slovenia as a base since 2017 to travel to neighboring countries and relay Moscow’s orders to other Russian sleeper agents. They have two children. They pleaded guilty Wednesday, sentenced to 19 months in prison, and released on time served.     Klyushin, 43, a wealthy businessman with ties to the Kremlin, convicted in Boston in 2023 of charges including wire fraud and securities fraud in a nearly $100 million scheme, relied on secret earnings information stolen via hacking U.S. computer networks. He was said to have personally pocketed $33 million in the scheme. Klyushin was arrested in Switzerland and extradited to the U.S. in 2021; sentenced to nine years in prison.    Konoshchenok, a suspected officer in Russia’s Federal Security Service, extradited to the United States from Estonia last year to face charges he smuggled ammunition and dual-use technology to help Moscow’s war in Ukraine. U.S. prosecutors say he was detained in 2022 while trying to return to Russia from Estonia with about three dozen types of semiconductors and electronic components.     Krasikov, 58,convicted in 2021 of shooting to death “Tornike” Khangoshvili, a 40-year-old Georgian citizen of Chechen ethnicity, in a Berlin park. The German judges concluded it was an assassination ordered by the Russian security services. He was sentenced to life imprisonment. President Putin this year hinted at a possible swap for Krasikov.    Mikushin, arrested in Norway in 2022 on espionage charges. Norway’s domestic security agency PST said Mikushin entered the country saying he was a Brazilian citizen. He was in Norway under a false identity while working for a Russia’s intelligence service, Norwegian investigators said.    Rubtsov, also known as Gonzalez, a journalist working for Spanish media; arrested on espionage charges in eastern Poland, near the Ukrainian border, in the first days after Russia’s full-scale-invasion in 2022. Poland’s Internal Security Agency identified him as a Russian intelligence agent, although some rights groups criticized Warsaw for holding him for more than two years without charge. Reporters Without Borders called for his release.    Seleznev, a Russian citizen, son of a Russian lawmaker, convicted in the U.S. in 2017 of hacking into more than 500 businesses and stealing millions of credit card numbers, which he then sold on websites. He was sentenced to 27 years in prison and ordered to pay nearly $170 million in restitution to his victims. (Source: Associated Press - U.S.)
by Litvonova

European Commission
AUGUST 1, 2024 4:55 PM CET  ’EU snubs Hungary and Slovakia over Ukraine oil sanctions’. Following Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU imposed an embargo on imports of Russian oil but exempted pipeline supplies - including those coming to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline - to give those countries time to find alternative sources, with the understanding they would do so rapidly. In June, Ukraine was blocking the transit of pipeline crude sold by Moscow’s largest private oil firm, Lukoil, to Central Europe, prompting fears of supply shortages in Budapest and Bratislava. Kyiv was violating a wide-spanning 2014 trade agreement with Brussels. Last month, the two countries sent a letter to the EU executive, urging it to open emergency consultations with Ukraine over the move - a precursor to legal action. But the European Commission rebuffed the demand. The Commission has no plans to begin formal talks with Ukraine after Kyiv imposed a partial ban on exports of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, the EU executive said on Thursday. ’Urgent consultations do not appear to be guaranteed, ’it said, arguing that in the Commission's preliminary assessment, the sanctions do not pose ’an immediate risk to [both countries'] security of supply.’ The Commission was still ’verifying facts’; it had responded to the Slovak and Hungarian letter with a request for more information. The European Commission declines to open formal talks with Kyiv after its Central European neighbors complained it was violating the 2014 trade deal. After meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Thursday, EU trade chief Dombrovskis said that oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia were ’not affected, as long as Lukoil is not [the] owner of the oil.’ (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Ukraine
Aug 01, 2024, 07:04 AM  Zelenskiy speaking to French media outlets said on Wednesday that Kyiv does not want China to act as a mediator in its conflict with Russia but hoped Beijing would apply greater pressure on Moscow to end the war. China, which hosted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba last week and has a "no limits" partnership with Russia, has advanced its own peace plan to end the war based on non-escalation, direct negotiations and humanitarian assistance. Russian forces currently occupy a little less than 20% of Ukrainian territory and have been making incremental gains in the eastern part of the 1,000-km front. Russian President Putin last month said Moscow was willing to negotiate an end to the war, but talks were contingent on Ukraine giving up the four regions Russia annexed in 2022. It's impossible, Zelenskiy said. ’And it is an issue that is up to us alone,’ he said. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Pacific Ocean

11:56 ET, Thu, Aug 1, 2024  The United States military has sent a warning to China by blowing up a decommissioned naval ship, the 820-foot USNAVY helicopter carrier USS Tarawa in the Pacific. A bomb was dropped by an Air Force B-2 stealth bomber in a powerful act of surprise. ’This capability is an answer to an urgent need to quickly neutralize maritime threats over massive expanses of ocean around the world at minimal costs,’ the US Navy said in a statement. The ship, weighing in at 39,000 tons, was active from 1976 to 2009. The sinking exercise was conducted with other nations, including South Korea and Malaysia. ’Once the ship is sunk, authorities try to remove harmful elements from the ocean’ that could degrade the environment. (Source: Daily Express U.S.)

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Europe

Hungary
4:22 PM CEST, July 31, 2024  In the months leading up to elections for the European Parliament, Hungarians were ’warned’ that casting a ballot against Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would be a vote for all-out war. Orbán used a pro-government media empire that’s dominated the country’s political discourse for more than a decade. The right-wing Fidesz party cast the June 9 election as an existential struggle, one that could preserve peace in Europe if Orbán won -  or fuel widespread instability if he didn’t. The party came first in the elections. To Fidesz’s 44%. an upstart party which attracted disaffected voters led by Magyar, a former Fidesz insider, took 29% of the vote. Since 2010, Orbán’s government 'has promoted hostility to migrants and LGBTQ+ rights, distrust' of the European Union, and a belief that Soros - one of Orbán’s enduring foes - is engaged in secret plots to destabilize Hungary. ’Such messaging’ has delivered Orbán’s party four consecutive two-thirds majorities in parliament and, most recently, the most Hungarian delegates in the EU legislature. Public television and radio channels consistently echo talking points communicated both by Fidesz and a network of think tanks and pollsters that receive funding from the government and the party. Their analysts routinely appear in affiliated media to bolster government narratives, while ’independent’ commentators rarely, if ever, appear. According to press watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF), Orbán has used media buyouts by government-connected, to build “a true media empire subject to his party’s orders.' In 2016, Hungary’s oldest daily newspaper was suddenly shuttered after being bought by a businessman with links to Orbán. In 2018, nearly 500 pro-government outlets were simultaneously donated by their owners to a foundation headed by Orbán loyalists, creating a sprawling right-wing media conglomerate. The RSF group estimates that such buyouts have given Orbán’s party control of some 80% of Hungary’s media market resources. In 2021, RSF put Orbán on its list of media “predators,” the first EU leader to earn the distinction. A study showed up to 90% of state advertising revenue is awarded to pro-Fidesz media outlets, keeping them afloat. 'Hungary spent nearly $4.8 million on political ads on platforms owned by Facebook’s parent company, Meta, in a 30-day period in May and June', outspending Germany. The vast majority of that spending came from Fidesz or its proxies. One major spender is Megafon, a self-declared training center for aspiring conservative influencers. The government is the largest advertiser in Hungary. A network of ’independent’ journalists and online outlets continue to function and struggles to remain competitive. ’Independent’ lawmaker Hadházy said abuses go largely unaddressed because the majority of voters are unaware of them. The people that consume those media simply don’t hear about these things. The government controls state media by hand and ’spends about 50 billion forints ($135 million) a year on advertisements’ … that sustain their own TV networks and websites. Far more people hear their messages than the facts, he said. On a recent day in Mezőcsát, a small village on the Hungarian Great Plain, Hadházy inspected the site of an industrial park that was built with 290 million forints ($795,000) in EU funds. The problem, he said, is that since the site was completed in 2017, it has never been active, and ’the money used to build it has disappeared’. (Source: APNews – U.S.)
by Spike
An AP note: „This story has been corrected to show that the building of the industrial park in the village of Mezőcsát involved EU funds in the amount of 290 million forints, not 290 million euros’.

France
31/07/2024 - 19:06  The sporting competitions at the Paris Olympic Games are being staged at some of France’s most emblematic locations. /Photo(s)/ (Source: france24)

Ukraine
31/07/2024 - 19:17  With Russian forces gaining momentum on the front and aid from allies ebbing or in doubt, yesterday Zelensky said Russia should be represented at a second peace summit set for November after a first summit convened by Ukraine in Switzerland did not feature Russia on the invitee list and China shunned. Zelensky gathered leaders and top officials from dozens of countries at the Swiss mountainside resort of Burgenstock in June for a first summit. Since the whole world wants them to be at the table, we cannot be against it; if China wants, it can force Russia to stop this war, Zelensky said.. His push focuses on a sweeping 10-point plan that 'would restore Ukrainian territorial integrity, return prisoners of war and give Ukraine energy and economic guarantees'. Russian President Putin has said he is open to negotiations, but would only order a ceasefire if Kyiv effectively surrendered territory that Moscow claims as its own. The United States is a challenge today, Zelensky said. A victory for Republican candidate Trump - who claims he will be able to force the sides into a negotiated settlement - would bring Washington's continued support into question. (Source: AFP - France)

Asia

Iran
Wednesday 31 July 2024 23:10 BST  Today morning, at an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has issued an order for direct retaliation against Israel, following the killing of Hamas’ top political leader Haniyeh who was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Pezeshkian. Israel has previously vowed to kill Haniyeh and other leaders of Hamas over the group’s October 7 attack. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has claimed that Haniyeh was assassinated and has laid the blame for his death at the feet of Israel. The two nations risked plunging into war earlier this year when Israel hit Iran’s embassy in Damascus in April, Iran retaliated, and Israel countered. Through almost 10 months of war in Gaza, Iran has tried to strike a balance, putting pressure on Israel with sharply increased attacks by its allies and proxy forces in the region, while avoiding an all-out war between the two nations. Iran and the regional forces it backs - Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and multiple militias in Iraq - form what they call the 'axis of resistance.' Leaders of those groups were in Tehran for the inauguration of Pezeshkian yesterday. Haniyeh was assassinated at about 2 am local time, after attending the ceremony and meeting with Khamenei. (Source: independent – United Kingdom)

North America

United States
July 31, 2024  Trump questions Harris' race during the National Association of Black Journalists convention. /Video */ (Source: YouTube / APNews = U.S.)
* 86 823 views

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Europe

Poland
30 July 2024  A new ’pro’-EU government came to power in Poland in December, drawing a line under a period when Warsaw and Budapest were regularly allies in disputes with the bloc over issues such as the rule of law or LGBT rights. Relations between Poland and Hungary have soured over Budapest’s decision to maintain warm economic and diplomatic ties with Russia, and more recently its blocking of European Union refunds for member states that gave munitions to Kyiv. On Saturday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered a speech in which he accused Poland of hypocrisy and of buying Russian oil through intermediaries. “They lecture us on moral grounds, they criticise us for our economic relations with Russia, and at the same time they are blithely doing business with the Russians,” he said. Simmering tensions concerning Warsaw and Budapest’s differences over Ukraine erupted into a diplomatic spat. Online magazine Visegrad Insight published an interview on Monday in which Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said that his Hungarian counterpart, Szijjártó, appeared to change his mind about a Polish proposal to hold an EU meeting in Ukraine after receiving instructions from Budapest. (Sikorski) has crossed another line and lied when he claimed that I enthusiastically supported his nonsense proposal to hold the next informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Ukraine, Szijjártó posted on his Facebook page. (Source: euractiv - Headquarters Brussels, Belgium; „with Reuters” - United Kingdom)

Jul 30, 2024 at 2:28 PM EDT  A convoy of American military vehicles has been pictured rolling across Poland's highways as the U.S. Army moves equipment to a site within the NATO member country to boost the alliance's eastern flank. Polish news outlet Radio Zet published an image of tanks next to a report of how residents in the regions of Lubuskie and Wielkopolska had noted an increase in military vehicles traveling on the roads. The outlet said that, until the end of September, the U.S. Army will move equipment from a military base in Mannheim, Germany, to warehouses in Powidz, where there is a NATO-funded Army Prepositioned Stocks (APS) storage facility. The warehouses in Powidz are adjacent to the airport, which allows for the rapid transfer of equipment by air, along with ammunition stocks if necessary, the outlet reported. The site will eventually host 87 tanks, over 150 infantry fighting vehicles and 18 self-propelled howitzers. In June, the U.S. Army said that 14 M1 Abrams tanks and an M88 armored recovery vehicle had arrived at the site, located around 250 miles west of Poland's border with Ukraine. Wojcik, a retired U.S. Army colonel, a senior fellow at The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) told last month that the site would eventually be fully equipped for an armored brigade. ’It could be deployed to fight within a few days’, rather than waiting for a month for the equipment to arrive by ship. (Source: newsweek - U.S.)

Slovakia
July 30, 2024  Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said a technical solution is on the table involving several countries which could renew the Lukoil transit. He has threatened to stop sending diesel fuel to Ukraine in response to the halting of Lukoil's crude oil transit through Ukraine, following Kyiv's imposition of sanctions on the Russian oil giant last month. If the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine won’t be renewed shortly, Slovnaft [the country’s Slovnaft refinery, controlled by Hungary's MOL] won’t continue with fuel supplies to Ukraine which covers one-tenth of the Ukrainian consumption, Fico said in a video message. Fico pointed out he called in the Ukrainian ambassador Kastran for a meeting in which he said he reminded him that the Slovak public very negatively assesses the step of the Ukrainian president against Lukoil. Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Szijjártó has described the situation as an oil security risk, stating that Hungary will continue to block the disbursement of funds from the European Peace Facility (EPF) for Ukraine. Slovakia and Hungary have protested to the EU over Kyiv's move but have so far received a cool response, given that other countries have already taken painful steps to cut their dependence on Russian oil supplies. Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia were exempted from EU sanctions on Russian crude oil pipeline imports until the end of this year due to their high dependency on it but were expected to use that time to reduce their dependence; instead Hungary has actually increased its dependence on Russian oil imports. The European Commission is not rushing to settle the dispute as the Ukrainian move did not cause 'an immediate problem, given that it only affects Lukoil imports' – which amount to 2mn tonnes a year. All oil flows through Druzhba are due to end at the end of this year anyway unless Ukraine agrees to continue the transit contract with Russia. Fico also reiterated that the war in Ukraine needs to be ended with an immediate ceasefire. Fico concluded by saying that he refuses the politics of a new iron curtain between Russia and the EU and that the EU if it wants to get out of total influence of the USA, it will have to think about forms of cooperation with the Russian Federation which should include cooperation in the area of strategic goods. (Source: intellinews - Germany)

Asia

India
30 Jul 2024  Landslides in southern India triggered by torrential monsoon rains have killed dozens of people with hundreds more feared trapped under mud and debris in the southern coastal state of Kerala. (Source: aljazeera - Qatar)

Philippines
Jul 30, 2024  Amid heightened tensions in the disputed South China Sea, just months before the U.S. votes in a November presidential election that will have broad ramifications for Asia, the United States unlocked an "unprecedented' $500 million in security assistance for the Philippines during high-level talks in Manila on Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin said. He and Secretary of State Blinken met with Philippine defense chief Teodoro and Foreign Secretary Manalo for the countries’ first-ever two-plus-two talks in Manila since the format began in 2012 as the officials agreed on key steps to bolster the Philippine military and continue modernizing the alliance. A large portion of the latest U.S. military assistance, described as a “once-in-a-generation investment,” would go into modernizing the Philippine military and coast guard to help Manila shore up its defenses in response to a recent series of violent clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels in and near disputed waters, particularly around a Philippine outpost on Second Thomas Shoal. Over $128 million would be used to upgrade facilities within nine Philippine military sites U.S. forces have access to under the allies’ 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Funding was also made available to support Manila's cybersecurity capabilities. The roadmap is expected to see Manila continue to receive equipment such as radars, military transport aircraft and drones, as well as coastal- and air-defense systems. The two sides also said negotiations on a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) were progressing and would be finalized within the year. The officials also again emphasized that the 1951 U.S.-Philippine mutual defense treaty applies to armed attacks on either nation's armed forces or public vessels “anywhere in the Pacific and in the South China Sea.” Coming only days after a similar two-plus-two gathering Sunday between U.S. and Japanese officials, these meetings are indicative of a broader U.S.-led regional defense strategy that aims to restrict China’s maritime reach within the so-called first island chain, of which the Philippines is on the front lines. This strategy features multilateral coalition-building and relies on critical contributions from several countries, including Japan, the Philippines and Australia. A number of countries - allies and partners - have been attempting to shore up ties with the camp of Republican nominee and former leader Trump, who as president repeatedly expressed a disdainful view of the U.S. alliance system. Austin sought to reassure Manila that the current momentum in bilateral ties “enjoys bipartisan (congressional) support.” The Philippines’ proximity to both Taiwan and key sea lanes in the South China Sea makes it an attractive staging point for the U.S. and its allies that could boost their ability to respond to regional crises. Manila granted U.S. forces access to four additional military locations last year - in addition to five previous ones. Three of the new EDCA sites face north toward self-ruled Taiwan, while the other is near the South China Sea. China claims large parts of the South China Sea, including the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains a small military garrison atop a rusty naval ship, the Sierra Madre, that it deliberately grounded in 1999 to reinforce its claims in those waters. The two sides agreed to allow Philippine resupply missions for purely humanitarian purposes, meaning allowing Manila to provide its contingent on Second Thomas Shoal with food and medical supplies but not military equipment or construction materials. (Source: japantimes)

Turkey
July 30, 2024 11:06 am CET  President Erdoğan told a meeting of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) earlier on Monday that Turkey ’must be very strong so that Israel can’t do these ridiculous things to Palestine.' ’Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we will do [something] similar exactly to them,’ Erdoğan said, referring to Turkey’s past military interventions. In light of Turkish President Erdoğan's threats to invade Israel and his dangerous rhetoric, Foreign Minister Katz instructed diplomats … to urgently engage with all NATO members, calling for the condemnation of Turkey and demanding its expulsion from the regional alliance, the Israeli foreign ministry said Monday. Turkey joined NATO in 1952 and has the alliance’s second-largest army. NATO does not have a specific mechanism to suspend or expel a member, though members may voluntarily withdraw. Dutch ’far-right’ leader Wilders, whose party is the largest in the Netherlands, called Erdoğan an Islamofascist in a social media post on Sunday, adding that Turkey should be kicked out of NATO. Wilders has long proposed expelling Turkey from the alliance. The Netherlands, unlike Israel, is also a NATO member. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg dismissed the possibility of creating such a mechanism in 2021, saying it would never happen. (Source: politico - U.S.)

North America

United States
July 30, 2024, 5:00 AM  'Would the U.S. consider assassinating Putin?’ Regime change has not worked out well for U.S. interests: the overthrow of Hussein in Iraq was no small factor in bringing about the Arab Spring, with effects that continue to reverberate across the Middle East as reflected by unresolved civil wars in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, as well as ’ongoing political instability in Egypt’ and Tunisia. The U.S. occupation of Iraq also facilitated the rise of the islamic state. And the Taliban ultimately outlasted the United States in Afghanistan by returning to power despite 20 years of American blood and treasure, and they now give sanctuary to insurgent groups threatening Pakistan, Iran, its Central Asian neighbors, ’and China’. More recently, the United States made no pretense in concealing its hand in killing Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Suleimani in January 2020, an action that historic precedent would suggest was an act of war. Only the strike against Suleimani occurred while he was abroad. Operations to depose Mosaddegh in Iran depended rather on internal elements to facilitate the plots. The U.S. governments have arguably favored the status quo of a predictable adversary. Should the United States and its allies seek to depose Putin by 'enabling' a coup in his absence, or assassinating him during such travels? The answer lies in assessing the risk versus gain. If the bar was juxtaposing the status quo with the consequences of Putin’s violent removal, would Russia’s threat to the United States and its allies be degraded? Would Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine and cease posing a threat to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe? Or might Russian intentions become even more hostile and less predictable? "Putin is fairly predictable. The inclination to accept the known status quo is further strengthened when that country is armed with nuclear weapons". As regards Russia, ’even under the most ideal circumstances’ in which the U.S. government could remove Putin and conceal its hand in doing so, how confident is Washington that a stable and less hostile leadership would succeed him? In Russia, like most autocracies, power rests with those who control the nation’s instruments of power - primarily the guns, but likewise the money, infrastructure, natural resources, connections, and knowledge of where the skeletons are to be found. That power is currently concentrated within a small circle of septuagenarians, almost all of whom have long ties to Putin, the Cold War-era KGB, and St. Petersburg. The Russian Armed Forces might have the numbers in terms of troops and tools, but under Putin, as it was in Soviet days, they are kept on a tight leash and closely monitored, with little discretionary authority for drawing weapons or coming out of their garrisons. The three organizations most capable of moving on Putin and the Kremlin are the Federal Security Service, or FSB; the Rosgvardia, or National Guard; and the Presidential Security Service within the Federal Protective Service, or FSO. The FSB is Russia’s internal security and intelligence arm through which Putin governs given its relatively massive and ubiquitous presence across all the country’s institutions. The FSB enforces Putin’s rule, monitors dissent, intimidates, punishes, and liaises with organized crime. Bortnikov leads the FSB, having succeeded Patrushev, who followed Putin and has served since as one of his chief lieutenants. Until recently, Patrushev served as Russian Security Council chief and was most likely the Kremlin’s no. 2, and might still be, despite having been made a presidential advisor for shipping. Bortnikov, like Patrushev, shares Putin’s world view, paranoia for the West, political philosophy, and glorification of the old Soviet empire. Bortnikov is considered by Kremlinologists to be Putin’s most relied-upon and trusted subordinate, and in turn, the individual best positioned to overthrow him, should he desire. Uncorroborated rumors suggest health issues. His deputy, Korolev, some 10 years younger, is regarded as effective, similarly ruthless, but perhaps too ambitious and ostentatious in his relationships with Russian organized crime. It’s likely that Putin sees a bright future for Korolev but has enough reservation to justify more seasoning and evaluation before having him succeed Bortnikov. The Rosgvardia is Putin’s brute force. It was established in 2016 from among the interior ministry’s militias variously responsible for internal order and border security to be Putin’s long red line against protests, uprisings, and armed organized coup attempts. The roughly 300,000-strong Rosgvardia is commanded by longtime former Putin bodyguard Zolotov. Likewise a part of Putin’s septuagenarian St. Petersburg crowd, with extensive past ties to organized crime, Zolotov emerged somewhat from the shadows following then-Wagner Group leader Prigozhin’s June 2023 revolt. Zolotov claimed credit for protecting Moscow and mused publicly at how his organization would likely grow and secure more resources to facilitate its critical responsibilities. Zolotov might not be as educated or sophisticated as Putin’s traditional siloviki associates, all former Cold War-era KGB veterans, but making his way up the ladder as he did from a St. Petersburg street thug, he’s not averse to using force to achieve his aims. Little is publicly known concerning Zolotov’s politics apart from loyalty to his boss, but there’s no evidence he might offer a progressive alternative less hostile to the West. As Putin has done for all of those in his inner circle to secure their loyalty, Zolotov’s family members have been awarded land, gifts, and key posts. Patrushev’s son, for example, is now a deputy prime minister. The FSO includes the Presidential Security Service, some 50,000 troops, and is responsible for Putin’s close physical protection. Little is known about its director, Kochnev, now 60, whose mysterious official bio indicates that he was born in Moscow, served in the military from 1982 to 1984, and then went into “the security agencies of the USSR and the Russian Federation” from 1984 to 2002, after which time he was officially assigned to the FSO. If Kochnev wanted Putin dead, he’s had plenty of time to pursue that goal, but he is unlikely to have the means and network to go further on his own in seizing power. Kochnev would still need the FSB and the Rosgvardia to accomplish the mission so would likely be an accomplice, but he would not be at the forefront of such a plot. There are likewise a handful of others close to Putin who might influence his succession, or be the face of it, such as Sechin, former deputy prime minister and current Rosneft CEO; former KGB Col. Gen. Ivanov, also a former defense minister and first deputy prime minister; and former KGB Col. Gen. Ivanov, who also had a stint as the Federal Narcotics Service director. All are known to be ideologically in line with the Russian leader and seek a restored empire unwilling to subscribe to a world order and rules created by the West that they believe aim to keep Moscow weak and subservient. If Putin were assassinated abroad, regardless of the evidence, the old guard would likely accuse the United States and use it as a lightning rod to consolidate power and rally the public. And sharing Putin’s paranoia over the West’s existential threat, the risk is credible that they would retaliate militarily, directly, and with uncertain restraint. Believing themselves insecure, they would likewise crack down at home in an indiscriminately ruthless manner that might unleash long-contained revolutionary vigor among the population, which would throw a large, nuclear-armed power into chaos. But could the United States do it if it wanted to? History shows that foreign leaders are not immune to assassination. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico survived being shot at close range by a disgruntled citizen in May. Unlike in the movies, however, assassinations are complicated, particularly against well-protected and deliberately unpredictable targets in foreign environments over which one has no control. According to leaked documents and the account of Karakulov, a former engineer and FSO captain, Putin is paranoid concerning his safety and health. Karakulov’s observations, Putin’s limited travel, and his proclivity to cloister himself from direct contact with but a small number of insiders for his safety makes him a hard target. Scrupulous care for his movements includes the intense vetting, quarantining, and close monitoring of those involved with his transportation and his personal routine as well as in securing the cars, trains, and planes he uses. For any such operation to succeed, close target reconnaissance and good intelligence are required to determine patterns and vulnerabilities on which to construct a plan. But while foreign head-of-state visits follow certain protocols and have predictable events, there are no long-term patterns within which to easily identify vulnerabilities. Other considerations include a means to infiltrate and exfiltrate the various members executing the operation as well as their tools. ’North Korea is not an easy place to visit’ let alone operate in for a foreign intelligence service to clandestinely steal secrets or conduct an observable action such as an assassination. There are certainly additional risks when Putin or any foreign leader ventures beyond the layered, redundant, and tested security protocols enjoyed in their home cocoons. Visiting dignitaries must rely on the host government for a variety of resources and needs too numerous and costly to pack, and when doing so would offend the locals. And that extends to perimeter and route security, emergency medical support, and infrastructure integrity. ’The threat to a foreign leader’s communications security, habits, health information, and that of their entourage is higher while in transit abroad - and therefore an attractive intelligence target’. The multiple moving pieces and complicated logistics associated with such visits produce information that must be shared with the host governments and span agendas, itineraries, dietary requirements, flight and cargo manifests, communication frequencies, telephone numbers, email addresses, travelers’ biographic details, and weapons, to name a few. 'Even with the best-laid plans for protecting Putin, one weak link could be the Russian leader’s self-imposed vulnerability, depending on the aging and problematic Soviet-designed Ilyushin Il-96 series jets he uses, as he did in recent travels to North Korea and Vietnam. Even if Russia builds and updates the replacement parts, there is long-term structural fatigue and limitations when trying to reconfigure so old an airframe design. While there’s arguably an element of Putin’s pride in wishing to use Russian equipment, it can be suspected that his inclination is driven more by paranoia for what adversaries might implant on his transport that prevents him from adopting newer Western aircraft, as his country’s commercial airlines have'. There are also significant bureaucratic hurdles to lethal operations. For the moment, at least, the U.S. practice of covert action is dictated by the rule of law. These are primarily executive orders rather than public laws, like EO 12333, which 'ironically forbids assassination', and the various presidential memos issued by Obama in 2013, Trump in 2017, and Biden in 2022 guiding the use of 'direct action,' the euphemism for drone strikes and other kinetic operations, against terrorist targets outside of conflict zones. But while the United States killed Suleimani as a terrorist who fit these guidelines, 'killing foreign leaders based on credible intelligence reflecting their ongoing efforts to do harm to the United States would reasonably still meet the legal bar for preemptive self-defense'. When it comes to killing Putin or any prominent adversary, the biggest challenge is not necessarily if it can be done, but whether it should be done. Russia, as Putin frequently reminds the West in his saber-rattling speeches threatening nuclear war, is another matter. What happens if you fail? (Source: foreignpolicy - U.S.)
by London, a professor of intelligence studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute, a former CIA operations officer. He served in the CIA’s Clandestine Service for more than 34 years - including three assignments as a chief of station and as CIA’s counterterrorism chief for South and Southwest Asia. He is the author of The Recruiter: Spying and the Lost Art of American Intelligence.

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Europe

Lithuania
Jul 26, 2024 at 1:31 PM EDT  NATO member state Lithuania is drawing up plans for a mass evacuation of civilians 'in preparation for the possibility of a war breaking out', the country's Interior Ministry said. Lithuania's Interior Minister Bilotaite was cited as saying on Thursday that authorities should be prepared to relocate a quarter of the country's population of 2.6 million - giving priority to pregnant women, families with young children, and people with disabilities. On July 5, Vilnius Mayor Benkunskas outlined some other measures that would allow the country to protect its civilians in the event of an attack, including developing a network of shelters. To date, 41 warning sirens have been installed in the city of Vilnius. They cover approximately thirty percent of the city's territory. (Source: newsweek *)
* an American magazine

Asia

China
26.07.2024  During his meeting with EU foreign affairs chief Borrell, Wang said China will, as always, support the European integration process and support the EU in adhering to strategic autonomy. "(China-EU should) engage in equal dialogue and enhance understanding, and respond to the uncertainty of the international situation with the stability of China-EU relations," he said. (Source: aa - Turkey)

26.07.2024 High representative Borrell met with Foreign Minister Wang in the margins of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Vientiane, Laos on 26 July. They discussed EU-China relations. The HR/VP said that the EU and China needs to acknowledge their respective concerns. (Source: eeas *)
* European Commission, Brussels, Belgium

Kazakhstan
26 July 2024 23:34 (UTC+04:00)  Russia and Kazakhstan are both committed to advancing the International North-South Transport Corridor, according to Overchuk, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia. "Equally important is the enhancement of transport routes towards China, given the increasing access to Chinese agricultural markets. We must support these opportunities with a conducive business environment and modern infrastructure," he stated during a meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission for Cooperation between the two countries in Astana. The North-South International Transport Corridor is a 7,200 km multimodal route linking St. Petersburg with the ports of Iran and India. It serves as an alternative to the traditional sea route through the Suez Canal. The corridor features both western and eastern branches through Iran. The western branch includes road transport via Rasht, while the eastern branch utilizes rail. The corridor ends at the port of Bandar Abbas in Iran, from where cargo can be shipped to India. The western branch also traverses Azerbaijan, while the eastern branch goes through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Overchuk also highlighted ongoing efforts to improve checkpoints and infrastructure connectivity between Russia and Kazakhstan. In trade relations, Kazakhstan and Russia saw a turnover of $9.7 billion from January to May 2024, a 12.5 percent decrease from $11.1 billion during the same period in 2023. Kazakhstan's exports to Russia in the first five months of 2024 totaled $3.36 billion, marking a 21.5 percent decline from $4.3 billion year-on-year. Conversely, imports from Russia fell by 6.7 percent to $6.3 billion, down from $6.8 billion in the same period of 2023. (Source: azernews *)
* a centre-right orientation, weekly newspaper in Azerbaijan

North America

United States
Friday 26 July 2024 19:04 BST  An analysis that Trump may have been hit by shrapnel, his former White House physician Jackson called “wrong and inappropriate.” During testimony Wednesday before the House Judiciary, FBI director Wray said the FBI had collected eight spent rounds from the site of the Pennsylvania rally and had accounted for each shot gunman Crooks fired at Trump. “With respect to former president Trump, there’s some question about whether or not it’s a bullet or shrapnel that hit his ear,' the FBI said. (Source: independent *)
* UK

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Greece
July 25, 2024 1:41 PM  Greece formally approved an offer to buy 20 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters from the United States as part of a major defense overhaul, government officials said Thursday. Delivery of the fifth-generation jet made by Lockheed Martin is expected to start in 2028, while Greece maintains the option to purchase 20 additional F-35 jets as part of an $8.6 billion deal. Athens has been seeking an advantage in the air since Turkey's exclusion from F-35 purchases and has also acquired advanced French-made Rafale fighter jets. Deliveries to the Greek air force began in 2021, starting with jets previously used by France's military that will be supplemented by new aircraft built by French defense contractor Dassault Aviation. Current members of the F-35 program, either as participants or through military sales, are: the United States, Australia, Belgium, Britain, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway Poland, Singapore, Korea and Switzerland.. (Source: voanews - U.S.)

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Europe

Hungary
July 24, 2024  Data published by the Finland-based Centre for Research and Clean Air (CREA), show that last year Ukraine transited 14.6m tonnes of oil via the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline to EU buyers including in Hungary and Slovakia. Another 5.5 million tonnes were shipped in the first half of 2024, and around half of these volumes were sold by privately-owned Lukoil company. The rest was transited by other Russian producers including Tatneft, Gazprom Neft, Russneft, and a few other smaller outfits. Lukoil was the main recipient of the estimated $6bn revenue last year (calculated based on the reported transit volumes and last year’s oil prices), implicitly, aiding the Russian state in its role as the country’s biggest taxpayer. Less than half of last year’s volumes left to ship via the Druzhba network, designed to transport a maximum of 56.4m tonnes. Hungary along with a few other Central and Eastern European countries such as Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Bulgaria won a temporary exemption to the EU oil import ban that took effect in 2023. Bulgaria, Poland, and Germany halted imports this year, the Czech Republic is working to cut reliance with a new pipeline to allow imports from Western countries. Hungary imported 56% more Russian oil in the first six months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2021, according to CREA data. At any point, Hungary could have substituted its Russian offtakes with seaborne imports secured via Croatian or Italian ports, and could thereby have aided landlocked Slovakia, with its MOL Group Slovnaft refinery. ’A market source told this author that Russia’s Lukoil had been selling oil to Hungary at a 20% discount to the Urals spot price, although it is unclear whether this discounted price was still on offer at the time of the Ukrainian curtailment’. It may explain the Hungarian government’s ability to control consumer fuel prices. On July 18, Hungary and Slovakia said they were not receiving Russian crude from Lukoil, a major supplier after Ukraine sanctioned the company last month. Is it possible’ Ukraine’s cost of transit might now be much higher than the revenue it receives from transmission tariffs’? Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjártó nonetheless called Ukraine’s decision, “incomprehensible, unacceptable and unfriendly,' while Prime Minister Orbán complained that his country was facing an imminent energy crunch. His Slovak counterpart, Robert Fico, called his Ukrainian counterpart on July 20 to say his country was being held hostage to a Ukrainian-Russian dispute. Hungary once again blocked €6bn ($6.5bn) in EU military aid to Ukraine at a meeting on July 22. Riled by Kyiv’s decision, Budapest and Bratislava are now calling on the EU to take action against Ukraine. The cut in supplies to Slovakia was doubly painful for Hungary since the country’s main refinery is owned by Budapest-based MOL, which is Hungary’s most profitable firm. It is likely to raise fuel prices in both countries, with all the political costs that may entail. ’The question still remains ’why Ukraine did not halt all flows and only imposed a partial ban’. Since the two countries are the biggest proponents for the extension of the Russian gas transit contract via Ukraine from 2025, it is hard to believe they intend to make any serious change in policy at all. It is unclear what solution might be found. (Source: cepa)
by Sabadus, a senior energy journalist writing for Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), a London-based global energy and petrochemicals news and market data provider and a Non-resident Senior Fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

European Commission
24 July 2024  2024 Rule of law report - Communication and country chapters
(Source: European Commission - Brussels, Belgium)

European Parliament
24 July 2024  The election of committee chairs and vice chairs yesterday was the last item on the agenda before the Parliament goes into a month-long recess. The cordon sanitaire, the mainstream’s agreement to exclude ’far-right’ groupings proved to hold. In none of the 24 committees and sub-committees did the Patriots for Europe, the Parliament’s third biggest grouping, or the smaller far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations, have members elected to committee chair or vice-chair. The Patriots claimed the Committee on Culture and Education and the Committee on Transport and Tourism - and saw their candidates lose out to Green MEP Riehl and EPP’s Vozemberg-Vrionidi. Members of the Patriots for Europe, led by France’s Rassemblement National and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, expressed their disappointment and called out the Parliament’s biggest group EPP. 'It clearly shows that they are not ready to accept democratic election results and cannot accept the fact that the Patriots are the third largest group,” vice-president of Patriots, Gál told after appointments finished. However, the ’hard-right’ ECR, the conservative Eurosceptic group led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, saw its members access to senior positions in the parliament. The election of two vice presidents and one questor from the ECR suggested that the group is an acceptable partner for the centrist coalition. The ECR received three chairs and ten vice-chairs. The group now presides over the Committee on Budgets, the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development, and the Committee on Petitions. Asked about the ECR’s cooperation with "pro-European forces' to get chairs and vice-chairs elected, Austrian Patriots vice-president Vilimsky said: “They have made a deal with the devil'. (Source: euractiv)

Russia
July 24, 2024 8:34 pm CET  The Russian parliament adopted a law Wednesday hiking the penalty for personal use of internet devices by frontline soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Open-source investigators are concerned that the new rules could make it harder to identify and document Russian activities on the frontline. Ukrainian Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) agency Molfar, which analyzes Russian activities on the battlefield daily, told they have observed a decrease in the data published by the Russian military on social media for some time. The law classifies possession of devices that allow military personnel to store or send video, photos or geolocation data on the internet as a grave offense, punishable by up to 15 days detention. It also forbids the transmission of any information that could be used to identify any Russian troops and their whereabouts. Dva Mayora, a pro-war blogger, slammed the move as an showing an outdated understanding of modern mobilization. "They decided that a soldier should fight without thinking about his family, and the family of a mobilized person should, like the family of a soldier in WWII or the family of a Cossack, be proud that a man was mobilized," the blogger, who has over 700,000 followers, wrote on Telegram. The new law also prohibits transferring information about citizens called up for military training, as well as those discharged from the army, and members of their families. (Source: politico)

July 24, 2024  The Kremlin appears to be making a grab for Russia’s biggest online marketplace Wildberries. But it has already de facto taken over search engine Yandex and social media company VK. Now it turns out that the founder and driving force of the company, Bakalchuk, who is also Russia’s richest woman, is divorcing her husband, Vladislav, who only holds 1% of the company. Vladislav has turned to Chechen President Kadyrov for help, who said he would 'fix it”. Wildberries is in a very weird merger with an outdoor billboard company called Russ that is ten times smaller than it. The deal was personally endorsed by Russian President Putin. Russ is linked to billionaire Kerimov of Polyus Gold and veteran technocrat Shuvalov. Kerimov was born in Dagestan and is close to Kadyrov, but is also a Duma deputy, a billionaire and deeply ingrained into Russia’s elite politics, but has always maintained a measure of independence from the Kremlin. This is potentially a problem for Putin. Shuvalov is one of the most powerful men in the country and is totally loyal to Putin. He heads up the state investment company VEB. As Shuvalov will do what Putin tells him to do and Putin backs Tatiana, Kerimov clearly wants to get some control over Wildberries, which is worth billions, and is probably using Kadyrov, who has backed Vladislav, to facilitate that. Putin has been following a hybrid free market/state control model. Typically he sets up two competing giants that are under state control in some way (but can still nominally be privately owned companies) to ensure there is competition. The Kremlin can still pull the strings if it needs to, but day to day the company is expected to be efficiently run on market principles and do real, profitable business. Amongst these pairs are: VTB & Sberbank in banking; Gazprom and Novatek in gas; Rosneft and Gazprom Neft in oil; and so on. At the end of this process Putin may be in charge of the Russian equivalents of Google, Amazon and Facebook. With Kerimov in the company, which is still privately owned by Tatiana, Putin will clearly get a lot more control over it. Putin wants to see a state-owned, or at least a state-controlled, internet giant like Amazon or Alibaba set up that has global reach. Tatiana was already in the process of building that, as Wildberries has been rolling out in lots of new countries in the last few years, including a popular Ukrainian service – until the war started. Since then, Wildberries has still been expanding, but has redirected its focus south and east. No one really knows what is going on - Tatiana is now swimming with the sharks. (Source: intellinews)

Arctic

Wednesday 24 July  Arctic is emerging as one of the most strategically important regions on the planet – and a key arena in the confrontation between Moscow and the West. Pyramiden sits at the foot of a stepped, snow-covered mountain that gives the settlement its name. Pyramiden is in Svalbard, a part of Norway. This is the most north-eastern Soviet town in the world. Pyramiden was once a thriving Soviet mining settlement. At its peak it was home to as many as 2,000 people. Norwegians and Russians have lived side by side on this archipelago, about a thousand kilometres from the North Pole. Pyramiden was a model Soviet settlement, and life here for the Russian miners and their families was good. There was a heated swimming pool, a school, and a canteen with free food. The miners would eat in the dining room underneath palm trees set on plinths. An enormous mosaic of the Arctic landscape still covers the back wall – a bright, colourful respite for the miners’ eyes after long shifts digging coal deep in the frozen dark. A Soviet-era Playboy model smiles hanging in the men’s dormitory, Russian car magazines were stuck here more than 30 years ago by Russian coal miners, something on the wall to just dream about during the long Arctic winters. The room became frozen in time; the miners left. After the fall of the Soviet Union it was eventually abandoned. But there are signs this ghost town is stirring back to life. A colony of kittiwake seabirds has taken over an apartment block in the town centre. Only two of the several dozen buildings in the settlement are still in use: the hotel, and a cultural centre, which has a working cinema. At the start of this year, just 12 workers lived in Pyramiden, mostly hospitality and maintenance staff. They’re workers for Trust Arktikugol, the Russian state-owned coal mining company that owns the land and Russia’s operations in Pyramiden. There are no roads into Pyramiden. Depending on the time of year, it’s only accessible by boat, helicopter or snowmobile. That hasn’t stopped visitors making the journey, and there are plans for more to come. In recent years, the company has tried to attract more visitors to the ghost town, describing it as an “Arctic phoenix that is more alive than ever”. But the COVID pandemic, coupled with sanctions in the wake of the war in Ukraine and a boycott by tourism companies, who don’t want any money going towards the Putin regime, have made that challenging. Over the past decade and a half, it’s become something of a tourism oddity, an open-air museum offering glimpses into life at the height of Soviet power. From the square, a stone bust of Russian Soviet leader Lenin stares down over the abandoned buildings. Pyramiden remains a tiny Russian foothold on NATO soil. Lately, though, tensions are on the rise. Moscow’s interest in Svalbard has increased. Russian provocations on the archipelago of Svalbard are driving up tensions at the top of the world. In recent years, Russians have been accused of using the archipelago as a backdrop for propaganda and patriotic stunts, and even sabotage. Still, Russian authorities allegedly have grand visions to bring this place back to life. The men’s dormitory has been gutted for renovations. Russian authorities have said they want to bring more tourists here via direct flights from the Russian mainland and on cruise ships. They’ve also said repeatedly in domestic forums that they want to build a new science centre in Pyramiden, inviting what Russia calls “friendly countries” – including China and India – to be a part of it. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has labelled Norway an “unfriendly country”, despite the fact that Svalbard is a Norwegian territory and one of the few places where official contact has been maintained between the two countries. It’s not clear if Norway would allow the science centre to ever become a reality. But for Russia, being seen as ambitious and defiant on a NATO member’s territory is potentially good propaganda for a domestic audience. Part of what makes Svalbard such hot property geopolitically is its location as a gateway to the Arctic. As temperatures rise, there are predictions the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer in coming decades, opening up new shipping routes - including what China calls the “Polar Silk Road”. It’s also close to the Kola Peninsula, where Russia keeps much of its nuclear arsenal and naval fleet. “At the end of the Cold War, the idea was that Svalbard would be basically a perfect location to control activity in the North Atlantic,” says Dr Østhagen, a senior researcher in Arctic security and geopolitics at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Oslo. Svalbard is governed by a century-old treaty that gives Norway sovereignty but allows non-Norwegian citizens – including Russians – to live and work there visa-free. The treaty forbids the archipelago from being used for “war-like” purposes, but if war ever broke out, that may not hold. In recent times, Russians have been accused of pushing the boundaries in Svalbard. In Longyearbyen, the main town on the archipelago, Russians put up a huge red neon sign on their guesthouse without permission from Norwegian authorities. It reads “Visit Spitsbergen”, the Russian word for “Svalbard”. Last year, in Pyramiden, the Russian state-owned coal mining company released a video of staff and a visiting Russian Bishop erecting a seven-metre-high Russian Orthodox cross on a hillside, again without Norwegian permission. Then there are allegations of sabotage. In early 2022, one of two undersea cables that connect Svalbard to the mainland was damaged. The cables are the main point of connectivity for SvalSAT, the world’s largest satellite ground station located above Longyearbyen, the main Norwegian settlement on Svalbard. The number one suspect was a Russian fishing trawler that allegedly sailed back and forth over the cable more than a hundred times. The ship owner denied it. Last year, on Victory Day Russian locals held what has been labelled by some as a “military-style” parade in the main Russian settlement of Barentsburg. Vehicles with Russian flags drove down the main street while a helicopter flew above. “We are used to seeing flag parades in Russia, but we never saw them in Barentsburg,” says Terje Aunevik, the mayor of Longyearbyen. “We are not invited there anymore. So it’s a massive change on that and it happened just overnight, more or less.” Early one morning, the silence over Pyramiden is shattered by the beating rotors of a Russian Mi8 helicopter. The abandoned buildings have been decorated with bright red Soviet flags, their yellow hammer and sickle emblems flapping in the wind. About 20 Russians file out of the helicopter onto the snow. In the lead is a man who unfurls a giant Russian tri-colour flag – Neverov, the head of the Russian state-owned coal company that runs Pyramiden. The visitors have come from Barentsburg. Over the next few hours, three more helicopter loads of people arrive. They’re here to mark Victory Day with a special commemoration for the “Immortal Regiment”. It’s an event that’s held all over Russia, but this is the first time it has ever been held in Pyramiden. They parade up the main square holding images of relatives who took part in the war, before laying poppies at the foot of a monument to the “Great Patriotic War”. “We are here in archipelago for 93 years ... it is place with rich history,” says Neverov. Several workers from the company are filming the parade, which was later shown on a major state-controlled news channel back in Russia. For Norwegian authorities, activity in and around Svalbard by non-Norwegian actors like Russia and China is high on their radar. The Norwegian government has recently said it wants to strengthen control over Svalbard. (Source: abc *)
* Australia

Asia

China
24/07/2024 - 17:01  Kuleba told his Chinese counterpart Wang that Russia was not ready to negotiate an end to the war in „good faith”, that currently there is no such readiness on the Russian side. ’I am convinced that a just peace in Ukraine is in China's strategic interests, and China's role as a global force for peace is important,' Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba was saying on visit to China for talks. His trip is scheduled to last until Friday. Kyiv would likely seek this week to convince China that it should participate in a second peace summit. China did not attend a peace summit in Switzerland last month in protest against Russia not being invited. A key Russian ally, China presents itself as a neutral party in the war. China has sought to paint itself as a mediator in the war, sending envoy Li to Europe on multiple visits, and releasing a paper calling for a "political settlement" to the conflict. Western countries said the plan, if applied, would allow Russia to retain much of the territory it has seized in Ukraine. The United States and Europe have also accused China of selling components and equipment necessary to keep Russia's military production afloat. Beijing has refuted claims that it is supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, and says it is seeking to bring both Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table. It says it is not sending lethal assistance to either side, unlike the United States and other Western nations, fuelling the conflict through arms shipments to Kyiv. (Source: france24 / AFP)

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Europe

Hungary
July 23, 2024 11:50am EDT  Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s self-proclaimed "peace mission" trips to Moscow and Beijing this month aimed at brokering an end to the war in Ukraine. EU partners 'overwhelmingly' saw it as undermining their support for Kyiv, EU foreign affairs chief Borrell said yesterday in Brussels. He had decided that the upcoming foreign and defense ministers' meeting would take place in Brussels instead of Budapest. Borrell said that EU member states had been divided between those who wanted to attend in Budapest and those who did not. Ultimately he said it was within his power to decide. Hungary currently holds the rotating EU presidency, and as such had expected to host the annual late August gathering known as the Gymnich in late August. This gathering should now be held in the EU capital in September, Borrell announced. Before the decision was announced, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó slammed what he called a 'concerted, hysterical, often mocking series of attacks' on Orbán’s recent surprise meetings with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi. Only Slovakia’s deputy foreign minister had vocally offered support to Hungary’s "peace mission," he noted. Hungary took over the six-month rotating role July 1, and since then Orbán has visited Ukraine, Russia, Azerbaijan, China, and the United States on a world tour he’s touted as "peace mission" aimed at brokering an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. (Source: foxnews - U.S.)

North America

United States
Jul 23, 2024 09:02 AM IST  Musk felt 'tricked' into consenting for his biological son, who is coming out as transgender, to go on puberty blockers. Musk expressed that to Canadian psychologist Dr Peterson. They discussed the controversial topic of doctors performing sex change procedures on minors, a practice both Musk and Peterson denounced as 'evil.' The tech mogul's recent decision was to move X and SpaceX headquarters from California after Governor Newsom signed the new Assembly Bill 1955, which will allow school forms not to notify the parents of their children's gender. A preprint study from the Mayo Clinic earlier this year indicated that puberty blockers could cause long-term fertility issues in boys. Musk shared his personal experience with his child Xavier, who now identifies as Vivian. He said it was pivotal in making him aware of 'the woke mind virus,' which he has vowed to “destroy”. 'It happened to one of my older boys, where I was essentially tricked into signing documents for one of my older boys, Xavier. This is before I had any understanding of what was going on. COVID was going on, so there was a lot of confusion and I was told Xavier might commit suicide if he doesn't…' Musk recounted. Vivian came out as transgender in June 2022. 'The people that have been promoting this should go to prison.” He didn't know puberty blockers are actually just sterilization drugs. He criticized the term 'gender affirming care' as a 'terrible euphemism.' (Source: hindustantimes - India)

23/07/2024 - 19:23 GMT+2  US Secret Service Director Cheatle resigned following a security failure during the assassination attempt on former President Trump, a position she had held since being appointed by President Biden in 2022. (Source: euronews - Lyon, France)

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Europe

Hungary
July 22, 2024 6:09 pm CET  Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU banned imports of Russian oil arriving at the bloc by sea, but allowed landlocked countries like Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to continue buying supplies via the Russia-to-Europe Druzhba pipeline transiting Ukraine until they could find an alternative solution. Kyiv last month adopted sanctions blocking the transit to Central Europe of pipeline crude sold by Moscow’s largest private oil firm, Lukoil, sparking fears of supply shortages in Budapest. Hungary relies on Moscow for 70 percent of its oil imports - and on Lukoil for half that amount. 'They should have foreseen the fact the EU was intending to end their exemption allowing them to keep buying Russian oil,' Levy, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air think tank said, 'and this should have been something that they planned for … because as we've seen, this is a real risk for their energy security.' Hungary had asked the European Union to take action against Ukraine for imposing a partial ban on Russian oil exports transiting the country, arguing the move was jeopardizing Budapest’s energy security. Budapest argues it’s facing an energy crunch. Kyiv's move "clearly violates’ the EU's 2014 association agreement with Ukraine, Hungary's Foreign Minister Szijjártó claimed at a meeting of EU envoys in Brussels. Hungary and Slovakia - also affected by the ban -  have now begun talks with the European Commission, he added, a precursor to legal action. Slovakia relies heavily on Moscow for oil as well. The sanctions drew a fierce reaction from Slovak PM Robert Fico. “Slovakia doesn't intend to be a hostage to Ukrainian-Russian relations,' he said on Saturday, following a call with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. The ban means the country's central Slovnaft refinery would “receive 40 percent less oil than it needs,” Fico said, arguing it would also reduce Slovak fuel exports to Ukraine that make up a 10th of Kyiv's consumption. 'Russian oil spat escalates' (Source: politico)

European Commission
22/07/2024 - 20:04 GMT+2  Borrell accuses Orbán of disloyalty and 'joins' boycott against Hungary's EU presidency. The informal meeting of foreign ministers scheduled to take place in Budapest at the end of August will instead be held in Brussels. Today evening, Borrell refused to use the word 'boycott' to describe 'his decision' and insisted the Hungarian representative would nevertheless be invited to the Gymnich meeting in Brussels. 'We have to send a signal, even if it's a symbolic signal, that being against the foreign policy of the European Union and disqualifying the policy of the European Union as the "party of war' has to have consequences,' he added, noting the strong criticism labeled at Orbán's actions 'had been echoed by 25 members states' with "one single exception," widely considered to be Slovakia, which shares Budapest's viewpoint. The foreign policy chief took the opportunity to denounce, once again, Hungary's perennial veto of the bloc's military assistance for Ukraine, which currently affects €6.6 billion in reimbursements. 'Member states insisted that this was something unacceptable and terrible, but unhappily, the situation of blockage remains," he said. Borrell admitted he had "lost the hope" that Budapest would soon change its mind and warned the absence of reimbursements could disincentivise some capitals from providing Kyiv with further military assistance. (Source: euronews)

Monday, 22 July 2024  “What a fantastic response they have come up with,” Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjártó said after the meeting. “I don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings, but it feels like being in a kindergarten.” ’In a rebuke’ of Hungary’s controversial solo diplomatic efforts on Ukraine, the EU’s informal meeting of foreign and defence ministers will take place in Brussels instead of Budapest, the EU’s top diplomat Borrell said today. The EU’s informal foreign and defence ministerial on 28-30 August was the only one left, as it is the bloc’s only ministerial configuration that is called not by the rotating EU presidency, but by the EU’s chief diplomat. The step came after several EU member states said they would downgrade their participation in informal meetings planned in Budapest during Hungary’s EU presidency. Hungary chairs the rotating EU Council presidency until 31 December. According to several EU diplomats, 13 member states wanted the meeting to take place in Budapest, five said they would not attend and eight left it up to Borrell to decide. Some had even floated the idea of Borrell potentially calling the meeting symbolically in Kyiv, instead of Budapest. However, its backers remained in the minority. But given that 25 EU countries - minus Slovakia and Hungary itself - supported the condemnation of Orbán’s initiative, Borrell decided to go ahead with the decision, he said. ’EU countries rebuked Hungary and its Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for his self-declared “peace missions” to „Ukraine, Russia, China, and Florida’ (United States). Budapest never explicitly explained whether they had been conducted in the national or EU presidency capacity. “We fully support Hungary and the initiative for peace,” Slovakia’s Interior Minister Šutaj Eštok told reporters heading into a separate, informal EU home affairs ministers meeting today in Budapest. Hungary over the past weeks had accused the EU of having a 'pro-war policy' by maintaining military and financial support for Ukraine. (Source: euractiv)

Asia

China
22 July 2024 22:35 (UTC+04:00)  China will gradually raise the retirement age, to combat demographic problems, to reduce the growing pressure on pension funds and slow down potential workforce reductions. The government's statement was part of a major policy document that also outlined plans to improve the strategy to combat the falling birth rate, which fell for the second year in a row in 2023 and is expected to decline for decades. Life expectancy in China has increased from 44 years in 1960 to 78 years by 2021. The national health authorities expect the number of people aged 60 and over to grow from 280 million to 400 million by 2035. By 2050 it is projected that people's life expectancy will exceed 80 years. Currently, the retirement age for men in China is 60 years. This limit is 55 years for women working in the office and 50 years for women working in factories. The reforms mentioned in the document are planned to be completed by 2029. According to estimates by the Chinese State Academy of Sciences, the pension system will run out of funds by 2035. (Source: azernews)

Philippines
July 22, 2024  Manila announced Sunday it had reached a “provisional agreement” with Beijing aimed at establishing an arrangement in the South China Sea that both sides can live with - without renouncing territorial claims. The text of the deal has not yet been released.
* GZERO Media, a digital media firm in America, founded by American political scientist Bremmer.

North America

United States
07/22/24 4:14 PM ET  The Pentagon today announced a new strategy - the 2024 Department of Defense Arctic strategy, packaged into a 28-page report - to build up its presence in the Arctic region, which is becoming more contested militarily as climate change drives the melting of sea ice and opens up new passageways. The Defense Department, pushing to counter Russia and China in the Arctic, outlined a new effort that includes: investing in more Icebreaker ships, training forces for the Arctic, investing in regional bases and building out advanced technology for Arctic-based missions such as aircraft and communications infrastructure. The Defense Department plan focuses on a strategy to improve sensors, intelligence and information-sharing; engage with allies and partners to strengthen the U.S. presence; and launch more training and exercises in the Arctic to accustom troops to the cold and deploy new technology designed for the icy region. That includes modernizing the network of radars and sensors under the command of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and investing in satellites to provide coverage of the Arctic. “The strategic can quickly become tactical, ensuring that our troops have the training, the gear and the operating procedures for the unique arctic environment, [which] could be the difference between mission success and failure,” Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks said. Ferguson, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Arctic and global resilience, whose team crafted the new strategy, said they were looking at the “art of the possible” when it comes to building out new drones and aircraft, including research and development. The Pentagon also aims to invest in Arctic-specific manned aircraft and drones, along with investments in cold weather equipment and technology to enable troops to deploy in temperatures of minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit. A couple of weeks ago the U.S. announced the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, a multibillion dollar and multiyear pact with Finland and Canada to build more Icebreaker ships that can navigate the region. While the western security alliance NATO includes seven of eight Arctic states, Russia has the largest share of regional territory and the most developed military presence there. Russia has some 40 Icebreakers, according to the Pentagon, while the U.S. Coast Guard only has two operating ones that are expected to soon reach the end of their life. Russia is also continuing to invest heavily in the Arctic and renovate its installations. China has three Icebreakers and is not an Arctic state. But it often conducts research there that the U.S. says is military related, and Beijing is seeking to promote the Arctic as a shared space while gaining access to the region through investments. (Source: thehill)

Jul 22, 2024 at 11:28 AM EDT  Harris would have to pick her own running mate if she were to become the nominee. A governor, who is popular, and has a strong economic record in their state, would be the most valuable foil for competing with Trump, Vance - Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro; North Carolina Governor Cooper; Michigan Governor Whitmer; Kentucky Governor Beshear or California Governor Newsom. (Source: newsweek *)
* an American weekly news magazine

July 22, 2024 7:04 pm CET  Trump chose Vance as his VP candidate largely to boost the Republican ticket in Rust Belt states. The former president has an electability problem among women, and his pick for vice president only compounds it. (Source: politico)

NATO

July 22, 2024  Deterrence through a ‘tripwire' - the evolving ‘Tripwire’ on NATO's Eastern flank. NATO Enhanced Forward Presences (eFPs) are multinational, combat-ready forces which unify soldiers of several NATO members under a single command. Each eFP consists of a leading nation, which provides most of the troops and equipment, a host nation, and contributing nations. The latter are sending, on a rotational basis, their troops and equipment to the host country. The size and composition of each battlegroup varies, being tailored to specific geographical factors and threats. As an example, the eFP based in Latvia (which is notable for being the largest and most multinational of such formations) hosts 1,900 soldiers from eleven countries and is commanded by Canada. NATO’s newest member, Sweden, also plans on deploying its soldiers to Latvia as a contributing nation starting 2025. The tripwire doctrine posited that the death of even a few allied soldiers on host nations’ soil would generate enough political pressure to trigger a large-scale military response. Although a tripwire force lacks significant stopping power on its own, the fear of this subsequent larger reaction would be enough to dissuade potential aggressors. In this sense, the multinational composition of eFPs intended to ensure a broad response, involving several NATO member states. The original strategy underpinning eFP had dual utility. First, these battlegroups were designed small enough not to be perceived as a threat by Russia, while still enhancing host countries’ defensive capabilities. Second, these forces could provide sufficient deterrence despite them being vastly outnumbered by any invading force. A study interviewing Baltic and Polish security professionals, with Russia as a hypothetical aggressor, nevertheless questioned whether tripwire forces instill enough reassurance that allies will actually help in the case of an attack. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO enhanced its tripwire strategy by agreeing to scale up these battlegroups from battalion-size to brigade-size units at the Madrid Summit in 2022. The Latvian eFP, for example, has employed a three-step roadmap to accomplish this goal, which involves increasing its troop count to 2,200 by 2026. In addition to bulking up existing battlegroups, NATO established four new eFPs in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, extending the Alliance's forward presence from the Baltic Sea all the way to the Black Sea. Last month, Finnish Minister of Defence Häkkänen also revealed that Finland will be hosting a NATO command as well as a land force. The Madrid Summit agreed to enhance NATO’s ability to provide quick back-up by strengthening its high-readiness forces across all domains - land, sea, air, cyber and space. The current NATO Response Force consists of around 40,000 troops, which can be made available within two weeks, whereas the planned New Force Model elevates this number to 300,000. A component of the new model, the Allied Reaction Force, was activated earlier this month, which comprises cyber and space forces elements as well as more light infantry troops. Increasing soldiers and equipment also seems appropriate considering the current personnel problems European militaries are facing today. This is especially problematic due to widespread recruiting difficulties within Europe’s militaries. 'More troops is the name of the game in Europe’s current security environment.' (Source: wilsoncenter *)
* The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Washington, D.C based Government organization think tank

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Europe

Russia
Sunday, 10:25 PM CEST, July 21, 2024  Russia claims gains in the east. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said today that its troops had taken control of two villages: Pishchane Nizhne in the Kharkiv region and Andriivka, sometimes referred to as Rozivka, in the Luhansk region. Russia and Ukraine trade drone, missile and shelling attacks today. Overnight into Sunday, Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted 35 of the 39 drones launched by Russia, according to air force commander Oleschuk. Russia launched three ballistic missiles and two guided air missiles, which did not reach their targets, he said. In the Kharkiv region two people were wounded when a village was hit by Russian shells. Three people were wounded by Russian drone strikes in southern Ukraine’s partly occupied Kherson region. Officials in the northern Sumy region said today that Russia launched a missile strike on “critical infrastructure facilities” in the city of Shostka, “Two heating facilities” had been destroyed. Russian air defense systems overnight destroyed eight drones over the country’s Belgorod region and over the Black Sea, the Russian Ministry of Defense said. Russian air defense also shot down two long-range ballistic ATACMS missiles in the sky over the Kherson region heading for Russia-annexed Crimea. Nine people were wounded over the previous day in shelling in the town of Shebekino in Russia’s Belgorod region, bordering Ukraine. Ukrainian shelling of Russia-held areas of the Donetsk region killed two people in the village of Horlivka. (Source: apnews)

North America

United States
Sunday 21 July 2024 at 10:41pm  Biden has announced he will withdraw from the 2024 US presidential race and endorsed Vice President Harris to replace his as the Democratic Party nominee. Calls for his withdrawal from the presidential race have only grown in the wake of a series of gaffes, including at this month's Nato conference in which he introduced President Zelenskyy as "President Putin'. Trump was quick to comment following Biden's announcement, writing on his Truth Social platform: 'Crooked Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve - And never was!" He added: 'All those around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t.'It comes as Trump this week accepted the Republican Party's nomination, days after a failed assassination attempt on his life. Biden, who remains at his Delaware beach house 'after being diagnosed with Covid-19 last week', said he would address the nation later this week to provide 'detail' about his decision. 'President Biden completed his eighth dose of Paxlovid this morning,' Dr O’Connor said. 'He continues to perform all of his presidential duties.' Former President Obama and former House Speaker Pelosi are both reported to have expressed concerns in recent days about the likelihood of Biden securing a second term in the White House. Biden will go down in history as a man who accomplished significant achievements in his four-year term, Funny Girl star Streisand, 82, said in a post to X. 'We’ve lived through many ups and downs, but nothing has made us more worried for our country than the threat posed by a second Trump term. He has promised to be a dictator on day one, and the recent ruling by his servile Supreme Court will only embolden him to further shred the constitution, Former US president Clinton and ex-secretary of state Hilary wrote. They endorsed Harris and praised the president as one who 'restored our standing in the world'. (Source: itv *)
* Channel 3, a British public broadcast television network.

Sunday 21 July 2024 22:44, UK  Today, the US president announced that he will no longer be seeking a second term and has thrown his support behind Harris to take on Republican nominee Trump. After a disastrous debate performance and a series of high-profile gaffes, including mistakenly referring to President Zelenskyy as "President Putin', Biden has conceded to the calls within his own party to step aside.     US presidents who decided not to seek a second elected term include:     Polk - 11th president (1845-1849);     Buchanan - 15th president (1857-1861);     Hayes - 19th president (1877-1881);     Coolidge - 30th president (1923-1929);     Truman - 33th (president 1945-1953);     Johnson - 36th (president 1963-1969);     Biden - 46th (President 2020 - )
(Source: sky *)
* Sky News, a British television news channel. Headquarters London, United Kingdom

Sunday 21 July 2024 21:02 BST  Biden announced withdrawal from 2024 race in post on X today - he will ‘stand down” from election ’to focus solely on Presidential duties’. Trump claimed the Democrat will go “down as the single worst president by far in the history of our country.”  He told CNN he believes that Vice-President Harris will be easier to defeat than Biden should she now head the ticket. Biden “was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve,”, the former president argued in a post on Truth Social. “We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly,” Trump added. Harris owns the entire leftwing policy record of Biden, Trump Jr wrote in a post on X today. ’The only difference is that she is even more liberal and less competent than Joe, which is really saying something. She was put in charge of the border and we saw the worst invasion of illegals in our history!!!’ Musk, who announced this month he plans on giving $45m per month to a pro-Trump political action committee, celebrated the decision. “I believe in an America that maximizes individual freedom and merit,” he wrote on X. “That used to be the Democratic Party, but now the pendulum has swung to the Republican Party.” (Source: the-independent *)
* (United Kingdom)

Sunday, 21 July 2024  President Biden announced that he is dropping out of 2024 presidential race. Biden’s letter in full shared on social media today. (Source: the-independent *): https://tinyurl.com/5cv2rt9p
* The Independent, a British online newspaper. Headquarters London, United Kingdom

NATO

12:00 AM EDT, Sun July 21, 2024  Several European nations have reintroduced or expanded compulsory military service ’amid Moscow’s mounting threat’. ’We are coming to the realization that we may have to adjust the way we mobilize for war and adjust the way we produce military equipment and we recruit and train personnel,’ said Hamilton, head of Eurasia research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania), who served as a US Army officer for 30 years. ’It is tragically true that here we are, in 2024, and we are grappling with the questions of how to mobilize millions of people to be thrown into a meatgrinder of a war potentially, but this is where Russia has put us,’ he said. ’Whether this is a new Cold War or an emerging hot war is unclear,’ Clark (Ret.), who served as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said. 'We’ve got to rebuild our defenses. Those efforts include conscription, he says.     NATO relies on American forces to meet its target. With conscription remaining an unpopular topic in some countries, NATO is struggling to meet its new goal of having 300,000 personnel ready to be activated within one month and another half a million available within six months. That target would only allow NATO to fight a relatively short conflict of up to six months. ’We have put in place the most comprehensive defense plans since the Cold War, with currently more than 500,000 troops at high readiness,’ NATO spokesperson Dakhlallah told. There is still work to be done in a number of areas. Those include industrial capacity, defense spending and societal resilience – where the question of conscription would come in.    During peacetime, the Finnish Defence Forces employs about 13,000 people, including civilian staff. Finland, has the capacity to activate more than 900,000 reservists, with 280,000 military personnel being ready to respond immediately if needed.      In Germany Defense Minister Pistorius presented a proposal in June this year for a new voluntary military service. ’We must be ready for war by 2029,’ he said.     In Latvia, compulsory military service  was reintroduced on January 1 this year, after being abolished in 2006. Male citizens will be put up for the draft within 12 months of reaching the age of 18, or graduation for those still in the education system.     Since the country reintroduced compulsory military service in 2015, in Lithuania about 3,500 to 4,000 Lithuanians between the ages of 18 and 26 are enlisted each year for a period of nine months.    In April, Norway presented an ambitious long-term plan that will nearly double the country’s defense budget and add more than 20,000 conscripted soldiers, employees, and reservists to the armed forces. Conscription in Norway is mandatory and since 2015 the first member of the NATO to conscript both men and women on equal terms. Norway is maintaining significant numbers of reservists.    Sweden, NATO’s newest member, is maintaining a numbers of reservists, though not as many as Finland. In Sweden conscription is now gender-neutral. It called up around 7,000 individuals in 2024. The number will rise to 8,000 in 2025.     In the United Kingdom the Conservatives floated the idea of military service in their ill-fated election campaign     The way military personnel are recruited and trained is a decision for individual nations, Dakhlallah said, adding: ’Around a third of NATO members have some form of compulsory military service.’ “Some allies are weighing up conscription. However as an alliance we do not prescribe mandatory military service,” he said. “The important thing is that allies continue to have capable armed forces to protect our territory and our populations.” (Source: cnn)

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Europe

Italy
20 Jul 2024 The sea has taken everything'. Farmers and residents of the Po River delta are struggling as landmarks are lost to the water and crops are poisoned by salt. The Po River flows into the Adriatic Sea off the coast of northern Italy. Subsidence - the slow and progressive sinking of the ground over time - is a phenomenon which has become very familiar to the inhabitants of the Po Delta region. It has caused the complete submergence of entire stretches of coast over the past 50 years. The Isola Bonelli Levante in Porto Tolle is among the most striking examples of segments of land which have slipped into the sea. A large rice farm, which was in use from the 1970s, has sunk almost 3 metres below sea level and was abandoned in the 1990s. The vanishing "Isola Batteria" along the Po della Pila, one of the smaller channels. Once a German military fortification built during World War II on the island which took its name, today it is mostly a lagoon, nearly completely submerged, and can only be reached with difficulty by boat. Just a few buildings remain, reduced to skeletons and semi-submerged ruins. The murky waters covering the seabed here are shallow. Of the old banks of the river, only a few shy reeds break through the surface of the water, showing where until not many years ago you could walk, sow rice or go fishing for hake. At the mouth of the Po River, where the river meets the Adriatic Sea, saltwater infiltration is reaching worrying levels. In 2022, which had a particularly dry summer, this salt wedge extended more than 40km inland from the Adriatic Sea. Last year, when there was more rain, the salt wedge spread for 17km. The primary consequence of the saltwater intrusion in coastal agricultural areas is the salinisation of the soil, which prevents crop growth. The delta area of the Po River extends for 140 square kilometres. Approximately 70 percent of the territory is made up of agricultural land. The area was heavily mined for methane gas from 1938 to 1961, when the Italian government halted operations because of subsidence, dozens of times higher than natural levels. The areas damaged by salt seeping into the soil are clearly visible. It has been caused by both direct irrigation with brackish water and by saltwater rising from the subsoil. In the Po Delta, the problem is particularly bad because the fields are below sea level - a consequence of centuries of farming, which has slowly lowered the ground level by reclaiming terrain from the sea. The limit on salinity for distributing water is one gramme per litre. The regulating body carries out hydraulic defence, irrigation and environmental protection works. It oversees the embankments protecting against flooding, the irrigation network systems, the delta lagoons and the outlets merging into the sea and the canals and facilities serving the fishing valleys. Approximately 70 percent of the Po Delta region is agricultural - mainly represented by arable land. Rice is a typical crop in the Po Delta that has been cultivated since the Middle Ages. The rice fields cover approximately 9,000 hectares of delta territory, and the European Union has listed the rice produced here as a Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) brand to validate its flavour and important nutritional qualities. To protect agricultural and industrial areas in Volta Vaccari, in the municipality of Porto Tolle, the Consorzio Bonifica Delta del Po has installed a dam capable of collecting freshwater in a dead branch of the river. It guarantees one million cubic metres of freshwater for local farms during the most critical periods. The barriers have worked well in the past, but today they run into an insurmountable obstacle: they were calibrated with the minimum flow values of the Po at the time - 450 cubic metres per second - in mind. Today, lower rainfall means the flow of the river has slowed to around 113 cubic metres per second. This has caused the barriers to be much less efficient - and less able to counteract the incoming flow of seawater. (Source: aljazeera)

Slovakia
July 20, 2024  Slovakia and Hungary said this week they had stopped receiving oil from LUKoil after Ukraine imposed a ban last month on the transit of LUKoil resources via its territory. For Slovakia, that meant a loss in some supplies for its Slovnaft refinery, which is owned by Hungarian oil and gas group MOL. Slovakia will not be a 'hostage' to Ukraine-Russia relations, Prime Minister Robert Fico told his Ukrainian counterpart in a call today, after Kyiv placed Russia’s LUKoil on a sanctions list. Slovakia's government office said that Fico spoke by telephone with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. (Source: rferl* / Reuters)
* Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

European Commision
July 19, 2024  Why a von der Leyen’s second mandate is not a good news? Von der Leyen won a second mandate at the head of the European Commission. According to many observers and decision makers the political outcome is a good news for Europe, and under von der Leyen’s mandate ’unprecedented achievements’ have been registered. For the fist time ever, common debt has been issued in order to finance the post-pandemic recovery of the European economies. The RRF and the eurobond are one of the 'greatest' von der Leyen’s achievements. Furthermore, with a European Union called to face the health crisis posed by COVID-19 pandemic, the EU has started to build up a European Union for Health, something totally new and unexpected given the national competence on the matter. A huge amount of money is needed to translate into practice the European Green Deal, as well as raw material. The EU lacks of both element, resulting squeezed between the US rich in money and the PRC rich in natural resources. Going forward with the Green Deal, something promised by von der Leyen in order to be re-elected for her post, means to play a risky geopolitical game in time of geopolitical tensions. Under her leading role, the EU has been shifting from an inclusive mode to an uncompromising one, from a peace-building vision to an aggressive one. Migration policy made clear how the newly appointed president of the EU Commission is there to serve the Member States. At the same time, the 'wolf scandal'. When one of von der Leyen’s ponies was found dead by a wolf attack (so was it alleged and then confirmed), the same von der Leyen immediately tabled a proposal to reduce safeguard and protection requirements for wolves. She went on despite MEPs warned her about a decision taken without the necessary case studies. Looking at foreign affairs, the European Commission was more then quick in imposing sanctions against Iran because of his role in supporting Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war, but the same didn’t happen in the Middle East crisis. Despite the Israeli violation of international law, no restrictive measures have been proposed by the Commission. The von der Leyen’s commission finished to adapt a double standard approach, in contradiction with the call of respecting law. Is that the idea of democracy we have in Europe? Are these the values von der Leyen talks about? EU leaders started to ask for military assistance and a new era for the European defense industry. Von der Leyen, once again, decided to re-write the European narrative: peace means defense. Orwell wrote once: 'War is peace'. She supported the nomination of Kallas for the role of the next High Representative for Foreign policy. We talk about the former prime minister of Estonia, who has constantly been stressing the need of inundating Ukraine of tanks, fighter jets, ammunition. In her plenary speech von der Leyen announced the creation of both 'a Commissioner whose responsibilities will include housing', and «a first-ever European Affordable Housing Plan». A good and smart move to get the socialists onboard. Here the EU commission can do little, since housing is a national competence, linked to other national competences. Labor market reform can recommended by the European Commission, but it’s up to the Member States to act there. So, there are social intentions from von der Leyen which can generate expectations difficult to fulfill, providing the anti-EU forces extra arguments to go against the European project. No, von der Leyen’s re-election is not a good news, at all. The agenda is actually the point - a more aggressive and less inclusive Union, led by a president of the European Commission in love with herself. Always a tweet, always a picture, always the need to put her face on anybody file or meeting. Welcome to the von der Leyen’s ego-system, enriched by new risky commitments. (Source: euelectionsitaly)

North America

United States
July 20, 20245:40 AM  When the political satire Veep premiered on HBO in 2012, it was viewed by those outside of government as a show too absurd to be a true commentary on the vagaries of American political power. By the time the show ended in 2019, two and a half years after Trump had been sworn in as the president, Veep’s absurdism was starting to feel like a black mirror to reality. There are the vanity-obsessed lawmakers, the slobbering cronies, unethical lobbyists, and the now-predictable incompetence and selfishness that we recognize as holding us all hostage in a political system that feels far from representative. Central to all of that in Veep’s universe is Vice President Selina, an ineffectual, sharp-elbowed politician who’s routinely shunted to the side in President Hughes’ administration. In early seasons of the show, VP Meyer’s sole political power is in being trotted out for photo ops with “the people” while rarely getting invitations to official briefings. Most of the show’s jokes stem from her barely repressed fury at being ignored by her own party; she struggles so much to get any face time with the president that the audience never sees his face either. You’re probably already thinking about her real-life analogue: the veep herself, Kamala. It’s been a long time since the Democrats have had anyone who was ha-ha funny and not does-he-have-dementia funny. America spent years turning the vice president Harris into a joke. On social media, you can find countless side-by-side comparisons of Harris’ real statements and Meyer’s scripted ones; both share a penchant for long-winded, nonsensical speeches, folksy interactions with the public that come off as clueless, and klutzy answers to even the simplest questions. A favorite Harris-as-Meyer moment took place on Barrymore’s daytime talk show in April. Barrymore, taking the vice president’s hands delivers a plea: We all need a mom. We all need a tremendous hug in the world now, but in our country, we need you to be Momala of the country. A great protector. What … the hell is she talking about? Momala. Has any vice president been talked to so condescendingly, and with no real recourse available to her? Of course not: No one would ever ask Cheney to take over the reins as Papa America and bring us comfort during the Iraq War. Harris, meanwhile, has the distinct expression of someone who’s just been spit on in public but is forced to grin and bear it. This kind of bizarro-world moment is one of a hundred for Harris, who has spent much of her first term as vice president known less for her accomplishments than for being a living meme. There was Harris dancing with a marching band made up of children, Harris laughing maniacally with her whole body, Harris mimicking a senator’s voice while swearing him in, Harris talking about coconut trees. Since she joined Biden’s ticket in 2020, Harris has been sidelined by her party, defanged in quips made by pundits and in TikTok memes, and largely forgotten by voters in a fate befitting that of the first woman of color in her position. How funny, then, that Harris is now being bandied about as one of democracy’s last hopes as the presidential election draws nearer like the promise of death itself - the only person who might be able to save us is the very person we’ve been dutifully ignoring this whole time. Veep couldn’t have scripted it any better. A viable candidate in 2019, she had the right backstory: a biracial woman of color, a first-generation American raised by a scientist mother from India and an economist father from Jamaica, who came of age at Civil Rights protests at Berkeley in the 1960s. Once elected as vice president, Harris quickly receded from view, perhaps in an effort to downplay reports that Harris was mistreating staff members - how very Veep indeed! - or perhaps to mollify complaints coming from both ends of the political spectrum. Republicans hated her: She wanted to open the jails and make everyone gay! Progressives hated her, too: She built her career on holding up many of the very systems her more radical parents protested against in the ’60s. Between those anxieties and the rumors that, as a boss, she was cruel, or ineffectual, or disorganized, or egomaniacal, no wonder the White House chose to simply defang her instead. Shut out of any meaningful positions of power within the administration, Harris has been dispatched to do the kind of low-stakes posturing that Selina was always so pissed off about. In 2021, Biden appointed Harris to handle migration issues at the southern border, a job that already felt a little fake, but felt even more ludicrous once Republicans dubbed the gig “border czar.” Classic: A flimsy, impossible task handed to Harris, warped into a job title for the scary biracial woman here to ruin America with Soviet-style socialism. For the past few months, Harris has been spending much of her time engaged in the soft sciences of campaigning: Pride events where she’s wiggling around in a bedazzled denim jacket, reproductive rights events where she talks about what she and Biden will do after the election to bring back Roe v. Wade, outreach events with different ethnic groups in an attempt to bring Biden their (exhausted, indifferent) vote. We rarely heard from Harris when it comes to the economy, war, national debt, or climate change. Mostly, she’s been trotted out as token woman (when it comes to abortion or reproductive rights) or Black woman (Juneteenth) or Indian woman (Diwali only, steering clear of most discussion around India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party). Harris; in all her attempts to appear approachable and relatable, comes across like an OpenAI-generated image that’s too shiny and has too many extra fingers to be legitimate. No wonder we’re all laughing at her singing “The Wheels on the Bus” - she looks like she’s never heard a song before in her life. The internet can’t resist such a strange spectacle, of course, especially as this election is shaping up to be our most dystopian thus far. Harris’ funny repeated aphorisms, her signature cackle, her mom-at-a-wedding dancing - all make her social-media catnip. Lately, the memes have increased tenfold as everyone has collectively lost their minds, leaning into the absurdity of our political reality - coconut trees and all. We’re stuck between a septuagenarian convicted felon and an octogenarian who accidentally referred to himself as “the first black woman to serve with a black president.' So yes, the coconut tree memes are all we have. The grand twist of Harris being made into a joke is that her name is now being floated as our last true hope in this election cycle. ’Whether she’s capable or not, she might be our last best hope’. Memes do not necessarily a presidential successor make. The Biden administration wanted a more palatable, less visible Harris, one they could trot out at reproductive rights rallies, and not one that spooked people leery of biracial radicals or of hard-ass prosecutors. They got it: a version of Harris whose first-term record and public perception among left-leaning voters are more akin to that of a goofy auntie than of the second most powerful person in the country. Meanwhile, the right is still treating her like a radical who’s prone to destroying the economy and enforcing communism. Either too silly or too dangerous, Harris is caught between two poles of absurdity, just as she has been this entire time. Most of the support around her comes from a few media figures and weirdos on the internet intersplicing footage of her dancing to the tune of the new Charli XCX record. While big-time Democratic supporter Clooney is writing op-eds for the New York Times about possible replacements, he’s not even listing Harris first on his own list of possible candidates. There’s nothing more Veep than that. Biden is weaker than ever, even worse than after his disastrous debate performance against Trump. With Vance now formally on the GOP ticket, ’a brutalist, even more unflinchingly anti-woman’ Republican Party is fully formed and still very likely to take the presidency this fall. Trump, having survived an assassination attempt, is more popular than ever, armed now with a shield of martyrdom and a direct line to Reagan and Jesus comparisons. It would take a lot to beat this team. What we need is an adult. At a campaign stop in North Carolina earlier this week, she spoke fiercely about Project 2025, about the plan to restrict abortion rights across the country, about the Trumpian attempts to overturn the last election. She’s not fucking around. She’s not falling out of a coconut tree. Harris’ expression is the soft, simmering irritation of a woman who does not want to have to mother anyone. What she wants - what she has clearly always wanted - is to be trusted with the job. In the end, she might get the last laugh. (Source: slate)

July 20(, 2024)  Former president Trump spoke by phone with President Zelensky, discussing an end to Ukraine's ongoing war with Russia. Trump said the two leaders had a "very good phone call" Friday. ’We agreed with President Trump to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting,’ Zelensky said. 'I appreciate President Zelenskyy for reaching out because I, as your next President of the United States, will bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives and devastated countless innocent families," Trump said following the call. "Both sides will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence and paves a path forward to prosperity." Zelensky recently met with newly elected British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and addressed the country's Cabinet, where he called for a reduction of weapon use restrictions on arms supplied by Western countries for use in Ukraine's war with Russia. (Source: upi* )
* United Press International

Globalization

20/07/2024 - 07:54  The new normal of information chaos after a major world event. Airlines, banks, TV channels and financial institutions were engulfed in turmoil after the crash, one of the biggest in recent years that was the result of a faulty software update to an antivirus program operating on Microsoft Windows. The global outage sent US stocks falling was linked to a bug in an update from American cybersecurity group CrowdStrike. From fearmongering about a looming 'World War III' to narratives linking a cabal of global elite to a cyberattack, a torrent of online conspiracy theories took off Friday after the major IT crash. The outage gave way to a swirl of evidence-free posts on X: The world was under attack by a nefarious force. The IT crash stirred up a theory that the World Economic Forum (WEF) had plotted a global cyberattack. The WEF has long been a target for conspiracy theorists pushing the idea of a shadowy cabal of elites working for private gain under the garb of solving global issues. To make that theory appear credible, many posts linked an old WEF video that warned about the possibility of a "cyberattack with Covid-like characteristics." The video, available on the WEF's website, had cautioned that the only way to stop the exponential spread of the cyber threat would be to disconnect millions of vulnerable devices from each other and the internet. Also gaining rapid traction online were conspiratorial posts using the hashtag "cyber polygon," a reference to a global training event aimed at preparing for potential future attacks. What is unique to events like these is how social media platforms, forums, and messaging apps facilitate the rapid dissemination of content, allowing theories to gain traction quickly and reach a global audience. The trend demonstrates the ability of falsehoods to mutate into viral narratives on tech platforms. During fast-developing news events, confusion now often reigns on major tech platforms, with users scrambling to obtain accurate information. (Source: france24 / AFP)

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Europe

Germany
10:18 BST, 19 July 2024  Former Chancellor Angela Merkel's open border migration policy allowed one million 'refugees' enter Germany in 2015. According to the Asylum Seekers' Benefits Act in Germany, if community service is refused without reason, the right to benefits is limited. Just a week after Federal Justice Minister Buschmann said he was in favor of cutting social benefits for asylum seekers who enter Germany via another EU country, the state of Saxony-Anhalt has cut the benefits of asylum seekers who refused to pick up debris following heavy flooding in east Germany. 64 migrants had been written to by local authorities demanding they help clear rubbish and erect dykes for a wage of just 80 cents per hour after devastating floods in the area at the end of last year which saw hundreds of residents in parts of Germany forced to evacuate. 39 people agreed to help, while the rest, who are said to be from Syria, Afghanistan, Niger, Mali and Albania, failed to turn up. 15 asylum seekers who had no excuse to take part in the clean-up will have their asylum benefits cut in half to €232 a month for three months. These benefits are meant to cover basic necessities, such as food, accommodation, personal hygiene and clothing. (Source: dailymail)

Russia
Jul 19, 2024 at 8:47 AM EDT  The Rostov nuclear power plant supplies power to Russia's entire Southern Federal District. On Tuesday, one of the nuclear power plant's four power units was shut down due to a malfunction of the turbine generator, Russia's state-owned energy group Rosatom said. This resulted in millions of Russians in the south of the country experiencing power outages. Rolling power outages this week affected residents of Russia's Krasnodar Territory, Rostov region, and Crimea. A number of social media users and Telegram channels spread the rumor on Friday that the nuclear power plant released ’radioactive isotopes into the atmosphere.’ ’Radiation emergency at the Rostov nuclear power plant. The radiation cloud is moving deep into the Russian Federation’ Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, said on Telegram. "The Rostov nuclear power plant is operating normally, the background radiation is normal, the messages that have appeared about the emergency are fake," Russian state nuclear company Rosenergoatom told. Radiation monitors indicated normal radiation levels in the Rostov region. Power was restored to Russia's southern regions on Wednesday. Russia's Energy Ministry said in a statement that it "continues to monitor the energy supply situation in regions experiencing abnormally high temperatures." (Source: newsweek)

Europe
19/07/2024 - 1:13 GMT+2  Orbán reiterated upon arriving at the 4th European Political Community Summit in the United Kingdom that he had represented only himself, and not the EU, during his trips to the Russian and Chinese capitals. "That's called political leadership," he said. The Hungarian government insisted the trips were done on a purely bilateral basis and that Orbán did not represent the bloc, but his use of the Hungarian EU presidency logo left some ambiguity. Speaking at the opening of the summit, Zelenskyy warned the other 46 European leaders in attendance that Russian President Putin 'may approach you' in a bid 'to tempt or pressure you, to blackmail you, so that one of you betrays the rest'.'If someone in Europe tries to resolve issues behind others’ backs or even at the expense of someone else, if someone wants to make some trips to the capital of war, to talk and perhaps promise something against our common interests or at the expense of Ukraine or other countries, then why should we consider such a person?' Asked about the condemnation he has received, Orbán said other European countries "are more pro-war' than his own. 'They believe that they can destroy militarily the Russians. I don't think so, because I think that there is no solution of this conflict on the battlefield. They hope so, but I don't believe at all because I know the Russians, I know the Soviet Union, I know the Ukrainians, I'm belonging to a neighbouring country. (The) solution is not on the battlefield. (The) solution is a negotiation table. Ceasefire negotiation table. But that's what I try to convince them. But, you know, it takes time." The summit in the UK comes two weeks after Orbán, then just days into his six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, travelled to Moscow for talks with Putin about the war in Ukraine. He then 'jetted' to Beijing for similar talks with President Xi. The trips, which Orbán declared a "peace mission", drew strong condemnation from other EU leaders, none of whom have met with Putin since April 2022. (Source: euronews)

Asia

Turkey
July 19, 2024, 10:19 PM GMT+2  President Erdogan submitted a motion to the Turkish parliament seeking authorisation for the deployment of Turkish military to Somalia including the country's territorial waters, a day after the Turkish energy ministry announced that Turkey will send an exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia later this year to search for oil and gas. Earlier this year, Turkey and Somalia signed a defence and economic cooperation agreement. Ankara has built schools, hospitals and infrastructure and provided scholarships for Somalis to study in Turkey. In 2017, Turkey opened its biggest overseas military base in Mogadishu. Turkey also provides training to Somali military and police. (Source: Reuters - United Kingom)

North America

United States
7/19/24 12:00 PM  The US is about to deploy a new ground-based jammer designed to blunt Chinese or Russian satellites from transmitting information about US forces during a conflict. The Space Force branch tested the system for the first time earlier this year at two different locations, with control of the system at a third. The devices responsibly counter adversary satellite communications capabilities that enable attacks. The first 11 of 24 Remote Modular Terminal jammers will be deployed in several months, and all of them could be in place by Dec. 31 at undisclosed locations. The terminals are small, transportable and low-cost satellite communications jammers that can be deployed in austere environments to protect. The new terminals augment a much larger jamming weapon called the Counter Communications System that’s already deployed and a mid-sized one called Meadowlands by providing the ability to have a proliferated, remotely controlled and relatively relocatable capability. The Meadowlands system has encountered technical challenges that have delayed its delivery until at least October, about two years later than planned. China has “hundreds and hundreds of satellites on orbit designed to find, fix, track, target and yes, potentially engage, US and allied forces across the Indo-Pacific,” General Whiting, head of US Space Command, said Wednesday at the annual Aspen Security Forum. That is an offensive counterspace capability Samson, the chief director of space security and stability at the Secure World Foundation, which produces an annual report on counterspace weapons. (Source: msn / Bloomberg)

Fri, 07/19/2024 - 3:29pm  'Four key decisions needed to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine from sanctuaries.' Russia has exploited sanctuaries with the crews of the bombers and ships beyond Ukraine's reach to launch devastating attacks for the duration of the war. ’Instead of providing weapons that might be able to shoot down the inbound missiles, we must provide weapons to deter the Russian bombers and fleet by going directly at them with weapons that can reach them'. Allowing Russia these sanctuaries must end and can be ended. Arming Ukraine with weapons to fight back against these attacks 'is not escalation’. Arming Ukraine with offensive weapons to be directly used against the bombers and fleet ’should be a moral imperative.’ 'The West' provide these weapons. ’Western nations have already approved artillery strikes and HIMARS cluster rocket (M-26) strikes into Russia to defend against attacks launched from these sanctuaries into Ukraine’. HIMARS are now firing into Russia, which was finally approved’, and is incredibly effective. These HIMARS cluster rockets have a range of 60km and can target anti-aircraft systems, artillery and multiple launch rocket systems firing into Ukraine, large troop formations, command and control, and transportation nodes. ’Now that the threshold has been crossed of Ukraine firing rockets into Russia, we simply need longer range missiles to go after the sanctuaries that are firing the cruise missiles’. ’There are four simple decisions that can make a significant impact on the battlefield in a short period of time and can easily be implemented:     Decision #1: ’Approve ATACMS missiles to be fired into Russia at any firing site firing into Ukraine. Notify Russia that it is Ukraine’s right to defend against any attacks after September 1st.’ This will give notice, and hopefully reduce or eliminate attacks from Russia into Ukraine within range of ATACMS (300km range for MGM-140 ATACMs and 180 km for M-39 cluster missiles).     Decision #2: ’Provide MQ-9 Reapers armed with AMRAAM air-To-Air missiles such as AMRAAM with 300 km range. The fleet of MQ-9 Reapers will augment the limited number of new F-16s arriving shortly. The MQ-9 with AMRAAM would push the bombers past standoff range. These unmanned UAVs can loiter for 40 hours and remain behind Ukrainian lines and fire at the bombers launching over 100 glide bombs per day that need to get within 40 km. If any Reapers are shot down the technology will fall within Ukrainian controlled areas, thus eliminating or mitigating the objection due to survivability and technology loss.     Decision #3: ’Provide Tomahawk missiles with a range of 2,400 kilometers, for use within all areas of occupied Ukraine and within the Black Sea; additional approve the new use of Tomahawks against Russian air base sanctuaries from which the bombers fly from after September 1, 2024.’ Tomahawks would only be fired at bases in Russia or the Black Sea Fleet against any bases or ships that fire cruise missiles into Ukraine after September 1, 2024. ’Of course, Ukraine would prefer to use them to launch at many military targets.’ Normally the Tomahawk is a sea-based either on ships or submarines. But the U.S. Army has ground based launchers capable of firing Tomahawks. The U.S. military fired over 800 Tomahawks into Iraq during the 2003 ’liberation of Iraq’ and it is a standard weapon fired by the U.S. military in combat operations. The United States, United Kingdom and Japan all possess Tomahawks. Tomahawks are now being deployed to NATO to deter a Russian invasion.     Decision #4: ’Approve SM-6 missiles with a range of 400 km, capable of hitting cruise missiles at long range like the KH-101s that were fired from Tu-95 and Tu-160 and flew from the Caspian Sea. These can be fired as ground to air, or ground to ship/ground.     ’Even a small number’ of Reapers with AMRAAM, and Tomahawks and SM-6s might be enough deterrent to stop the Russia air campaign against ’civilian targets from sanctuaries in Russia and the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. No matter what happens in the ground war, the air attacks on ’civilian’ targets must be stopped. ’By providing ATACMs, MQ-9 Reapers, Tomahawks, and SM-6 missiles, we can help’ Ukraine defend itself more effectively and force Russia to reconsider its brutal tactics. 'The West' must act decisively, not just to save Ukrainian lives, but to uphold the principles of sovereignty and international law. ’The decisions we make today will echo far beyond this war, influencing global security for generations to come.’ (Source: smallwarsjournal *)
* Small Wars Journal, an online magazine focusing on 'intrastate conflict', published by Small Wars Foundation.
by Rice, President of the American University Kyiv powered by Arizona State University. He is a 1988 graduate - B.S., National Security - of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point who served his commitment as an Airborne-Ranger qualified Field Artillery officer. In 2004, he voluntarily re-commissioned in the Infantry to serve in Iraq for 13 months. He has been awarded the Purple Heart, Ranger Tab, Airborne Badge. Since 2010 he is Co-President of Thayer Leadership with the mission of bringing the world to West Point and bringing West Point leadership to the world. In 2013, he published and co-authored the book „West Point Leadership: Profiles of Courage”, which features 200 of West Point graduates, including the authorized biographies of over 100 living graduates. The book received 3 literary awards plus an award from the Military Society Writers of America. In the private sector he served as Chief Marketing Officer for a $500 million medical device manufacturer; Managing Director of a $10 billion investment firm; Co-Founder of a private equity firm in Iraq, and Co-Founder of a solar hybrid company in Afghanistan. He has been traveling between Washington, D.C. and Kyiv throughout this war as the Special Advisor to the Commander in Chief Ukraine Armed Forces General Zaluzhnyi.
Note: A leaky plan? Advocacy for another group of generals preparing to join the executive boards of arms manufacturers in preparation for their retirement? Towards space ... - is that all that's left?

July 19, 2024 at 12:20 a.m.  The Republican National Convention has culminated Thursday with former President Trump‘s acceptance of the party’s presidential nomination. (Source: thestar *)
* Toronto Star

July 19 (2024)  A 12-hour timelapse shows American Airlines, Delta, and United plane traffic after what was likely the biggest IT outage in history today forced a nationwide ground stop of the three airlines. /video/ (Source: instagram): https://tinyurl.com/2jt3bcrj

Globalization
Friday 19 July 2024 16:02 BST  Vulnerability of worldwide dependence on software that comes from only a handful of providers. Much of the world faced online disarray Friday as a widespread technology outage affected companies and services across industries - grounding flights, knocking banks and hospital systems offline and media outlets off air. At the heart of the massive disruption is CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity firm that provides software to scores of companies worldwide. The company says the problem occurred when it deployed a faulty update to computers running Microsoft Windows, and that the issue behind the outage was not a security incident or cyberattack. Mac and Linux hosts were not impacted. Disarray continued hours after the problem was first detected. Hospitals had problems with their appointment systems, while officials in some U.S. states warned of 911 problems in their areas. Aairlines, payment platforms and online shopping websites across the world were affected. Long lines formed at airports in the U.S., Europe and Asia as airlines lost access to check-in and booking services. Banks in South Africa and New Zealand reported outages impacting payments and online services. The Austin, Texas company CrowdStrike is a U.S. cybersecurity company that provides software to companies around the world and across industries and bills itself as being the globe's most advanced cloud-based security technology provider. CrowdStrike has a partnership with Amazon Web Services and its “Falcon for Defender” security technology is designed to supplement Microsoft Defender to prevent attacks. (Source: independent.uk)

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Europe

Germany
00:27, 18-Jul-2024  Berlin will halve its direct financial contributions to Kyiv as part of the 2025 German Federal Budget, which the German cabinet agreed on Wednesday. German governments have to operate under a self-imposed rule on government borrowing called the 'debt brake". This rule limits government borrowing to 0.35 percent of GDP and is designed to stop the spiraling national debt. There is also a $18.55 billion gap between what is earmarked for spending and what is included in the plan. The budget laid out on Wednesday provides $4.38 billion in financial aid to Ukraine in 2025, down from $8.75 billion this year. The 2025 financial plan includes $85.35 billion in investments, $47.93 billion in net borrowing and a total budget of $526.30 billion. Despite this move, Finance Minister Lindner told the media that Ukraine's financing is secured "for the foreseeable future" thanks to $50 billion in loans that the G7 agreed can be taken from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets. Germany is currently a little over a year away from a federal election. All sides involved in the current cabinet have their eyes on that election, with little intention of coming together again in the same form. (Source: cgtn *)
* China Global Television Network

European Commission
July 18., 2024  von der Leyen re-elected for second term. (Source: riskandcompliance.freshfields *): https://tinyurl.com/5y4d63zb
* Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer

European Parliament
07/18/2024  The European Parliament gave its approval for von der Leyen to preside over the European Commission for another term. Of the 707 votes cast, she received a majority of 401 votes in favor - well ahead of the necessary threshold of 360. This was also a win for 'pro-EU, pro-Ukraine, pro-rule of law political forces, she said. Her next steps in office 'will also be influenced by the party factions that supported her. She had managed to secure the backing of four centrist political groups, including her own dominant center-right European People's Party (EPP), the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and despite poor showings in June's parliamentary elections, two other smaller centrist groups - pro-business Renew and the environmentalist Greens. For months, von der Leyen had made overtures to the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which has 'far-right' Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as its president. Meloni's Brothers of Italy party members voted against von der Leyen. The new 'far-right' Patriots for Europe group, now the third-largest in the EU legislature and home to France's National Rally party, also withheld support for her. She was roundly rejected by the Left group, which accused her of neglecting rampant poverty in the EU, cozying up to multinationals, and complicity in bloodshed in Gaza. In a speech to the European Parliament, with an apparent eye to S&D, the former German defense minister announced that one of the novel European Commissioner appointments would be dedicated to housing. Another, likely intended as an offering to Meloni, would be tasked with tackling migration in the Mediterranean. She would propose a ’New Clean Industrial Deal’ in her first 100 days in office, ’prosperity and competitiveness, increase of number of European coast and border guards to 30,000, deals to remove unsuccessful asylum seekers to nearby non-EU countries.'EU leaders put forward her name to serve another term last month. Confirmation from the EU's only directly elected body was a necessary hurdle to clear to stay in office'. (Source: dw *)
* Deutsche Welle

Russia
July 18, 2024  The first U.S.-made F-16 Fighting Falcons are expected to arrive in Ukraine this summer and could be operational by year-end. The F-16 is a mainstay of the U.S. Air Force since the 1970s. Denmark, the Netherlands, and Greece have pledged to send F-16s to Ukraine. Denmark and the Netherlands have pledged to send more than three dozen F-16s to Ukraine. This week, NATO ally Greece also announced that it will decommission as many as 32 of its Block 30 Fighting Falcons, which could be sold back to the U.S. and then sent to aid Kyiv's war efforts. Russia has vowed to quickly shoot down the aircraft or destroy them on the ground. Russian companies are offering cash bounties for downing them. "The reward for the first will be 15 million rubles," - approximately $170,000 - Potanin, director of the Russian oil firm FORES, said. Last year it offered five million rubles (around $56,000) for the first destroyed German-made Leopard 2 or American M1 Abrams main battle tanks (MBTs), and two million ($22,500) for the second, as well as 500,000 rubles ($5,600) for each subsequent tank taken out of service. The Russian rock band Zemlyany also offered a bounty of up to a million rubles (around $11,400 ) for the destruction of a Leopard 2 last year. In June 2023, a Russian soldier was given one million rubles by a private foundation for destroying the first German-made Leopard 2 in Ukraine. It was last November that a Russian anti-tank unit was awarded 700,000 rubles for destroying the first Leopard 1A5. (Source: nationalinterest)

7:21 AM · 2024. aug. 18.  Ukraine's offensive derails secret efforts for partial ceasefire with Russia. The warring countries were set to hold indirect talks in Qatar on an agreement to halt strikes on energy and power infrastructure. (Source: x / The Washington Post)

18.07.2024  Addressing reporters at the UN's New York headquarters, Lavrov condemned the Hamas-led Oct. 7 cross-border attack on Israel, maintaining the Kremlin has consistently done so since the raid occurred. But he maintained that Israel's retaliatory war has crossed the line and is now a form of 'collective punishment' on the territory's 2.3 million Palestinians. "When it comes to collective punishment in violation of international humanitarian law, one cannot fight against one form of violation through other violations. It's the same principle here," he said. More than nine months into Israel's onslaught, vast tracts of Gaza lie in ruins with nearly all of its population in a state of internal displacement amid a crippling blockade on food, clean water and medicine. The official death toll has surpassed 38,800, with over 89,100 people injured, according to local health authorities. Fears have mounted that the true death toll could be significantly higher. "Neither Hezbollah, nor the government of Lebanon, nor Iran want a full-blown war, and as a suspicion that some circles in Israel are trying to achieve just that, to provoke a full-blown war, trying to engage the US, trying to make the mind," he said. "I think it's terrible if some groups are trying to prioritize their personal interest rather than the interests of their own nation." (Source: aa *)
* Anadolu Agency

Ukraine
6:05 PM CEST, July 18, 2024  Ukraine has tried to take the fight to Russia through long-range strikes on rear areas. Ukrainian forces are being pushed back in some places along the front line by the bigger and better equipped Kremlin army. Kyiv is employing a bend-but-don’t-break strategy to buy time until it can get more Western weapons and ammunition to the front. Ukraine’s army has pulled out from the village of Urozhaine in the eastern Donetsk region, surrendering another front-line position as Russian forces blast Ukrainian defenses in a relentless onslaught. (Source: apnews)

Europe
(18 08 2024)  European State of the Climate 2023, compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).    Europe;    Arctic;    Globe.    (Source: climate.copernicus): https://tinyurl.com/228pbuvx

Europe
19/07/2024 - 1:13 GMT+2  Orbán reiterated upon arriving at the 4th European Political Community Summit in the UK summit that he had represented only himself, and not the EU, during his trips to the Russian and Chinese capitals. "That's called political leadership," he said. The Hungarian government insisted the trips were done on a purely bilateral basis and that Orbán did not represent the bloc, but his use of the Hungarian EU presidency logo left some ambiguity. Speaking at the opening of the summit, Zelenskyy warned the other 46 European leaders in attendance that Russian President Putin 'may approach you' in a bid 'to tempt or pressure you, to blackmail you, so that one of you betrays the rest'.'If someone in Europe tries to resolve issues behind others’ backs or even at the expense of someone else, if someone wants to make some trips to the capital of war, to talk and perhaps promise something against our common interests or at the expense of Ukraine or other countries, then why should we consider such a person?' Asked about the condemnation he has received, Orbán said other European countries "are more pro-war' than his own. 'They believe that they can destroy militarily the Russians. I don't think so, because I think that there is no solution of this conflict on the battlefield. They hope so, but I don't believe at all because I know the Russians, I know the Soviet Union, I know the Ukrainians, I'm belonging to a neighbouring country. (The) solution is not on the battlefield. (The) solution is a negotiation table. Ceasefire negotiation table. But that's what I try to convince them. But, you know, it takes time." The summit in the UK comes two weeks after Orbán, then just days into his six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, travelled to Moscow for talks with Putin about the war in Ukraine. He then 'jetted' to Beijing for similar talks with President Xi. The trips, which Orbán declared a "peace mission", drew strong condemnation from other EU leaders, none of whom have met with Putin since April 2022. (Source: euronews)

18. 07. 2024  European leaders gathered at the 4th European Political Community Summit in the UK, topics defence, migration and democracy. Forty-seven heads of state and government gathered today at the fourth meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). The leaders discussed continued support to Ukraine, as well as shared challenges such of energy and connectivity, security, democracy, and migration. The European Political Community, established in 2022, aims to foster political dialogue and cooperation to address issues of common interests, and strengthen the security, stability and prosperity of the European continent. This platform for political coordination, as was pointed out on multiple occasions, does not replace any existing organisation, structure or process, and does not aim to create new ones at this stage.     So far, the European Political Community has met three times.     At the first summit in Prague, in October 2022, leaders mainly discussed peace and security issues, especially Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the energy crisis.     In Moldova, in June 2023, they discussed joint efforts for peace and security, energy resilience and connectivity and mobility in Europe.     In Granada, in October 2023, leaders discussed how to make Europe more resilient, prosperous and geostrategic.     During the plenary session, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer saluted President Zelensky. According to him, the threat from Russia reached right across Europe. Starmer stressed that under his leadership, the UK will be a friend and partner to Europe, ready to work with European countries. President Zelensky thanked those who support Ukraine in its path to membership in the EU. He urged Europe’s leaders to show the collective will to take steps to help stop Russia’s aggression. One of the two roundtables, focused on defending and securing democracy, was co-chaired by President Michel and Montenegrin President JMilatović. This roundtable discussed how to address threats targeting European democracies, including disinformation and foreign information manipulation. For the first time, representatives from NATO, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and the Council of Europe attended the summit. The next European Political Community meeting will take place in Hungary, current holder of the Presidency of the EU, on 7 November 2024. (Source: europeanwesternbalcans)

Asia

China
(18 July 2024)  China's Xi has a peace plan. In February 2023, following several meetings between Chinese and Russian officials, a 12-point paper titled, "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis," was released by China's foreign ministry. It covered basic points such as respecting the sovereignty of all countries, resuming peace talks after ceasing hostilities, protecting civilians and prisoners of war, and promoting post-conflict reconstruction. Moreover, it opposed the threat or proliferation of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. The document also called on "abandoning the Cold War mentality," urging countries to "oppose the pursuit of one's own security at the cost of others' security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent." It encouraged the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, signed by Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine and the UN, to ensure food security, and discouraged unilateral sanctions that would disrupt "international cooperation in energy, finance, food trade and transportation and undermine the global economic recovery." Soon after the paper was published, President Zelenskyy welcomed China's efforts - he added that there were some points in the plan he didn’t agree with, ’but it's something.’ Already endorsed by Russian allies, the plan now needs support among European countries who favour Ukraine. In May, Hungarian PM Orbán endorsed President Xi's 12-point peace plan during the latter's visit to Budapest. "Today, Europe is on the side of war,' Orbán said during his joint press conference with Xi. "The only exception is Hungary, which calls for an immediate ceasefire and peace negotiations and supports all international efforts that point towards peace ... „We also support the Chinese peace initiative presented by Xi, he added. According to Chinese media, Xi told Orbán that "the international community should create conditions for the resumption of direct dialogue and negotiations between the two sides and provide assistance." „It is in the interests of all parties to seek a political solution through an early ceasefire," he added. Earlier this month, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visited Moscow and Beijing on a "peace mission" to find a solution to the war in Ukraine. Orbán said he was seeking the quickest path to peace in Ukraine and portrayed himself as uniquely positioned to communicate with both warring parties. Several European (Union) member states are wary of Orbán's close ties to Russian President Putin and China's Xi. The Hungarian premier has been critical of Western military aid to Ukraine, putting him at odds with several EU members, as well as the European Commission, who said their top officials will boycott informal meetings in Hungary and send civil servants instead. European Commission President von der Leyen referred to Orbán's recent visit to Moscow, in particular, as an ’appeasement mission." For the next six months, Hungary holds the rotating presidency of the European Union Council. (Source: trtworld *)
* TRT World, a Turkish public broadcaster

Israel
July 18, 2024 10:38 AM  On Thursday, the Israeli parliament voted to oppose a Palestinian state as an "existential threat." The 120-member Knesset late Wednesday voted 68-9 to pass a resolution that said a Palestinian state on land occupied by Israel would "perpetuate the Israel-Palestinian conflict and destabilize the region." "The Knesset firmly opposes the creation of a Palestinian state [on land] west of Jordan," said the resolution, referring to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. "The creation of a Palestinian state in the heart of the land of Israel would constitute an existential danger for the state of Israel and its citizens, would perpetuate the Israel-Palestinian conflict and destabilize the region." It predicted that Hamas would take over the state and turn it into 'a radical Islamic terrorist base' seeking to destroy Israel. The resolution said "promoting" a Palestinian state was "a reward for terrorism and would only encourage Hamas and its supporters" after the October 7 attacks. (Source: voanews 'by Agence France-Presse')

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Europe

Greece
July 17, 2024  Greece is close to purchasing up to twenty F-35s, with deliveries starting in 2028 for training purposes. The $3.47-billion deal would include initial technical support, pilot and engineer training on the Lightning II, and simulators for ongoing training. 'Lockheed Martin expects the NATO members and other partners in Europe to have about 500 F-35s by the decade’s end'. (Source: nationalinterest)

Romania
July 17, 2024  Putin will freak: New F-35 fighters are headed to closer to Russia's doorstep. 'Lockheed Martin expects the NATO members and other partners in Europe to have' about 500 F-35s by the decade’s end. NATO member Romania is reported to be close to signing a government-to-government agreement with the United States. Bucharest has expressed interest in acquiring thirty-two F-35s in a deal worth $6.5 billion, which also includes logistics and training services, as well as flight simulators and ordnance for the aircraft. The first delivery is expected by 2030. Meanwhile, Romania has procured thirty-two second-hand F-16s from Norway, which will join seventeen it previously acquired from Portugal in 2016. Last month Bucharest indicated that it would donate a U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot air defense system to Kyiv. It is one of five such anti-aircraft platforms that have been pledged by NATO members. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Suciu, a Michigan-based writer with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism.

European Parliament
July 17, 2024 4:31 pm CET  In a vote Wednesday, members of the European Parliament condemned Viktor Orbán’s visit to Russia at the beginning of July - as part of what he called a “peace mission” to discuss with Putin conditions that could bring an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine - passing a resolution that provided a commitment by the Parliament to maintain its support for Ukraine. Some 495 MEPs voted in favor of the pro-Ukraine resolution, with 137 voting against. Orbán’s main opponent in Hungary, Magyar, along with fellow EU lawmakers from his Respect and Freedom Party, voted against the resolution. He called the decision a punishment against Hungary in a Facebook post. Magyar, who sits as an MEP in the European People’s Party, added that his party also opposes the cordon sanitaire against Orbán’s newly formed far-right Patriots for Europe group. According to his post, he informed the head of the EPP Weber of his positions, which Weber apparently took note of. (Source: politico)

Dombass
July 17, 2024, 12:51 PM  Western media only started to have a substantial presence in Ukraine in December 2021, on the eve of the full-scale invasion. Before that, much of the reporting was done by correspondents based in Moscow, who usually spoke only Russian and were heavily exposed to Russian narratives. The Washington Post did not open a Kyiv bureau until May 2022 - and sent its former Moscow correspondent to report on Ukraine. Similarly, the New York Times only opened an office in Ukraine in July 2022, headed by the paper’s veteran Moscow correspondent, Kramer, whose coverage of the war since 2014 had outraged Ukrainians. The newspaper’s reference to Russia’s hybrid attack as a “civil war” (later corrected) and Kramer referring to Russian-occupied territories as “separatist zones” echoed Kremlin language, reminding some Ukrainians of the Times’ sordid history of misreporting genocides and Soviet atrocities. Another widespread adoption of Kremlin talking points on Ukraine was the Western media’s myopic fixation on right-wing extremism that was supposedly out of control in Ukraine - a claim that has been solidly 'debunked' but that would be used by Russian President Putin to justify his full-scale attack in 2022. Western willful ignorance was particularly evident concerning the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic. From their creation in 2014 to their end in September 2022, these were Russian proxy regimes. Yet many in the West - including governments, diplomats, academics, and journalists - treated them as statelets set up by supposed eastern Ukrainian “insurgents.” Only in January 2023 did the European Court on Human Rights put an official end to this pretense, establishing that Russia had effective control over these fake republics since the day they were created. (Source: foreignpolicy)
by Kazdobina, a senior fellow in the security studies program at Ukrainian Prism; Hedenskog and Umland, analysts at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs’ Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies.
A comment: "It is entirely true that the secession of the DPR and LPR was armed and managed by the Russians, but there was broad support among the population outraged by the violent overthrow of Yanukovich. This is almost a mirror image of Maidan -- a movement built on billions of dollars of U.S. funding and CIA planning and at least manipulated (Nuland-Pyatt phone call) if not managed by the U.S. - which doesn't mean there wasn't broad support for that in the West of Ukraine and in Kyiv - there was. The conflict was created by outside powers on both sides for their own purposes, using Ukrainians as instruments. That's the reality of this ugly war. It is pure propaganda (or deluded consumption of propaganda narratives) to believe that the Russians were doing it, but we were not. It's a standard Cold War playbook".

Russia
Jul 17, 2024  Detachment of Russia's Pacific Fleet warships has successfully navigated the Suez Canal, transitioning from the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea. Starting on January 22 of this year, the Pacific Fleet embarked on a long-range mission engaging in various combat drills and managing daily operational tasks at sea. During this period, the fleet made port calls in India, Sri Lanka, Iran, Qatar, and Eritrea. Leading this mission is the Varyag missile cruiser, the flagship of Russia’s Pacific Fleet. Also part of the Pacific Fleet is the “Marshal Shaposhnikov,” a frigate that has been modernized to carry Kalibr missiles - a family of Russian cruise missiles developed by the design bureau Novator, JSC Concern VKO Almaz-Antey. (Source: bulgarianmilitary)

North America

United States
July 17, 2024, 9:04 a.m. ET  Some attendees at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee are sporting makeshift ear bandages in support of almost-assassinated former President Trump - with one calling it “the newest fashion trend.” /photo/ (Source: nypost)

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Europe

Hungary
(Tuesday), 16 July 2024 20:38  Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán sent a letter to the European Council president, dated 12 July. The letter was divided into 10 points. Orbán said that one of the conclusions of his self-declared "peace mission" to Ukraine, Russia, China, Turkey and US presidential candidate Trump was that the EU should seek to restore diplomatic relations with Russia. “The chance for peace is diminished by the fact that diplomatic channels are blocked and there is no direct dialogue between the parties who have a leading role to play in creating the conditions for peace,” Orbán wrote. Orbán also wrote that he believed a ceasefire and peace talks were still achievable but added that “in the next two months, we will see more dramatic losses and military developments on the frontlines than ever before' if the war did not stop immediately. The Hungarian prime minister also stressed that Europe should take the lead in trying to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine, as the US becomes increasingly distracted as its presidential election approaches in November. “Political leadership provided by the United States is limited, due to the ongoing election campaign,” Orbán wrote. “Therefore we can expect no such proposal coming from the US in the coming months. We should consider - in the spirit of European strategic autonomy - launching a European initiative,” he added. Other Hungarian proposals included a “political offensive” in the Global South and possible talks with China – which has put forward its own peace proposal for the war in Ukraine and snubbed a high-level peace conference in Switzerland in June – on a possible “peace conference” attended by both Russia and Ukraine.   European Council President Michel issued a reply to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán today on his 'rogue' diplomacy over Ukraine. In his reply to Orbán, Michel said he had “taken note of your insights and suggestions” but wanted to 'set the record straight' on five key points. 'I cannot accept your claim that we have led a ‘pro-war policy,’ Michel wrote in the letter. 'We, the EU, reiterated our unwavering commitment to support Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed,' Michel wrote, stressing that the bloc’s position on Ukraine is agreed upon by consensus among all 27 EU member states. Michel said the EU’s rotating presidency has “no role in representing the Union on the international stage and received no European Council mandate to engage on behalf of the Union”. “I made this clear even prior to your visit to Moscow and this was subsequently reiterated by High Representative Borrell in his statement of 5 July,' Michel wrote. He also stressed the EU’s key policy line that 'no discussion about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine” and that the bloc has 'spared no effort to reach out to all partners in this regard, including China.” 'Lastly, the most direct way to peace is for Russia to withdraw all of its forces from Ukraine and respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the UN Charter,' he concluded. Michel had shared the letter with all EU member states and would inform his Ukrainian counterparts of the exchange of letters. Michel’s letter comes a day before EU ambassadors are expected to raise the issue informally tomorrow as part of preparations for next week’s meeting of EU foreign ministers. It also comes after the European Commission said yesterday that it would boycott informal ministerial meetings organised by the Hungarian EU presidency in response to the widely condemned solo diplomatic efforts. The Council’s legal service told EU envoys last week that Budapest’s actions could constitute a breach of the bloc’s treaties. So far, however, EU countries have failed to come up with concrete options for curbing Budapest’s actions beyond public displays of anger. But most EU member states are now ready to join a boycott of the Hungarian EU presidency led by Eastern and Northern European member states. (Source: euractiv)

France
16/07/2024 - 20:20  French President Macron accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal today. Attal will lead a caretaker government with restricted powers until a new government is named. (Source: rfi)

European Parliament
July 16, 2024 7:59 PM GMT+2  The European Parliament's organising body will discuss how the institution will engage with Hungary while it holds the EU's rotating presidency, the head of the bloc's legislature said today. Metsola, president of the EU Parliament, said the legislature's conference of presidents - the body that oversees relations with member countries - had already discussed how to interact with Hungary in the wake of the EU criticism, and would do so again. A group of 63 European lawmakers, said today Orbán had deliberately implied he was acting on behalf of the entire EU when he visited Moscow and Beijing. "Attacks from pro-war European politicians only strengthen Hungary's resolve for its peace mission, emphasizing that peace, not war, is key to a great Europe," Hungary's Foreign Minister Szijártó said in a statement posted on X today by Orbán's spokesperson. (Source: reuters)

16/07/2024 19:49  ’Far-right’ candidates bidding to become vice-president of the European Parliament were voted down on Tuesday as part of centrist parties’ coordinated efforts to build a firewall against the radical right-wing. 'The hard-right' European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni did manage to secure two vice-presidents - one more than in the previous mandate. The two newly-formed radical ’right-wing’ groupings were blocked - neither Patriots for Europe, led by the French National Rally's Bardella, or the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) of Alternative for Germany (AfD) will be represented in the European Parliament's bureau, which shapes the parliament's rules and budget. Patriots for Europe had fielded two candidates, former Frontex chief Leggeri from National Rally and Dostálová of Czechia’s ANO party, formerly part of the liberal Renew Europe group. The Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), had presented Polish lawmaker Zajączkowska, who hails from the Confederation party. "The fact of going against the will of the Europeans, a will democratically expressed by millions of European voters, represents a huge assumption of responsibility, as well as a lack of respect,"  Borchia, a Patriots MEP hailing from Italy's League, told. Fourteen vice-presidencies up for grabs.  (Source: euronews)
See also: 16 July 2024 "Parliament’s new Vice-Presidents elected" (Source: europarl)

Tuesday 16/07/2024  The European Parliament overwhelmingly re-elected Maltese conservative Metsola as speaker on Tuesday, in the first crunch vote on the EU’s top jobs after elections in June. "Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has outraged his EU counterparts by visiting Russia and China, was due to address the parliament but his speech was postponed, officially because of a busy voting schedule'. Current speaker Metsola (EPP) won another two-and-a-half-year mandate after receiving 562 votes out of the 699 MEPs who took part. The refusal of some MEPs to cooperate with the 'far-right' and von der Leyen’s fate are closely linked. A new group known as Patriots for Europe, created by Orbán and including France’s 'far-right' National Rally, is now parliament’s third-biggest faction, vying for two vice-president spots as well. That group includes controversial figures such as Italian general Vannacci, author of a book 'featuring homophobic, misogynistic and anti-migrant' remarks. Patriots MEPs could be excluded from leading parliamentary committees next week. Patriots spokesman, de Mendoza, argued that a 'cordon sanitaire' employed by mainstream political parties to block the 'far-right' was “undemocratic.” (Source: thearabweekly)

Russia
16.07.2024  "It will be impossible to resolve the conflicts that are multiplying and without getting to the root causes and restoring faith in our ability to join forces for the common good and justice for all," Lavrov said during a UN Security Council debate on "the parameters of a just world order." Lavrov accused the US of long "declaring its own exceptionalism" before adding: "This also applies to Washington's attitude towards its allies, from whom it demands unquestioning obedience, even to the detriment of their national interests." The Russian diplomat said the West is "aggressively dismantling" the global system that was originally built based on its models to contain Russia, China and other countries whose independent policies are seen as a challenge to its hegemony. "Washington has done everything to blow up, including literally, by organizing terrorist attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines, the foundations of mutually beneficial energy cooperation between Russia, Germany and Europe," he added. The foreign minister also accused the US of holding "the entire West at gunpoint" and expanding its trade and economic war against those it deems undesirable. He claimed it "unleashed an unprecedented campaign of unilateral, coercive measures that are hitting Europe first and are leading to a fragmentation of the world economy." (Source: aa)

Ukraine
July 16, 2024  As Ukraine and its Western allies formulate a strategy to end the war, leaders should remember what matters most in Ukraine: sovereignty. The top priority for Ukraine and its allies should be achieving terms that minimize risks to Ukraine’s sovereignty by creating a durable, sustainable peace: long-term military aid and multilateral security guarantees, Ukrainian military neutrality, and a rebuilding effort alongside economic integration with the West. 'First, long-term military aid offers the best protection for Ukrainian sovereignty. Western aid and training after the 2014 invasion were enough to prepare Ukraine to deliver a shocking failure to Russia in its 2022 assault on Kyiv. The United States and its European allies should enshrine consistent aid to Ukraine in domestic legislation.' The bilateral security deals Ukraine has negotiated with at least thirteen countries, including the recent one with the United States and the European Union’s (EU) multi-year Ukraine aid fund, are steps in the right direction. The United States should also fund Ukraine through annual appropriations, such as Foreign Military Financing and longer-term funds like the EU’s. More regularized funding at a lower “peacetime level” will also reduce domestic political disputes. Finally, the West should offer Ukraine security guarantees that are stronger than the “assurances” offered in the Budapest Memorandum. As part of that, the United States could commit to surge aid in the event of renewed Russian aggression. The United States’s existing agreement is a framework that can be built upon for a more robust set of protections. Second, Ukraine should reinstate its former neutrality. For their part, Western leaders should publicly recognize Ukraine’s neutral stance. Slow progress toward NATO membership, described as Putin’s “brightest of all red lines” by CIA Director Burns, likely has more risk than benefit for Ukrainian sovereignty. Third, Ukraine must be rebuilt. Economic prosperity will harden Ukraine against further incursions and, therefore, protect Ukrainian sovereignty post-war. Ukraine currently controls most of its major metropolitan areas and maintains access to the Black Sea, where it has resumed agricultural shipping at near pre-war levels. The fundamental ingredients to rebuilding a thriving, prosperous society are still present. A robust economy will not only enable Ukraine to build a domestic defense industry and fund a strong military but also ensure that peace is sustainable for the Ukrainian people. This will be a major reconstruction effort, potentially financed in part through investment proceeds generated from frozen Russian assets. Ukraine should also begin integrating with Western Europe, leading to eventual EU membership. Given the choice to prioritize territorial concessions or multilateral security guarantees in peace negotiations, Ukraine would be best served by making itself as strong and steady as possible. (Source: nationalinterest)
by Davidson, Piliero, and Gaber - researchers with the Applied History Project at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. They are also the authors of a recently released research paper on the history of conflict resolution and its implications for the Russia-Ukraine War.

North America

United States
July 16, 2024 6:08 pm  “We can expect no peace initiative coming from [Trump] until the elections. I can however surely state that shortly after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately,” Hungarian PM Orbán wrote in his letter that was sent to European Council president Michel and other EU leaders. “He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.” A Trump-style peace deal is expected to call on Ukraine to concede much of its invaded territory to Moscow, something Kyiv and most Western capitals bitterly oppose. According to Menon, a professor of European politics at King’s College London: “It is very hard to see what the Europeans can do if Trump gets in and says to Zelensky, ‘sign this deal or I’ll stop US aid’. Ukraine could refuse to sign. But how long would it last without US support? And he could say to Putin: ‘Sign up or we’ll double the amount of weapons we send to Ukraine.’ There is a visceral reluctance among Mr Trump’s wing of the Republican Party to give any US taxpayer money to Ukraine. Fears that America’s support for Kyiv will wither if Mr Trump is elected have been heightened by the announcement Ohio Senator Vance will be his running mate. He is a staunch proponent of Trump’s “America First” vision and generally suspicious of US intervention in foreign affairs. Soon after Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Vance declared: “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” Mr Vance led the ultimately unsuccessful attempts among the Maga section of the GOP in Congress to kill off President Biden’s latest $60bn US aid package to Ukraine. (Source: inews)

July 16, 2024, 7:44 a.m. ET  Would-be Trump assassin was spotted by cops twice 26 minutes before he rained bullets on the Pennsylvania rally crowd and wounded ex-prez. A clear picture is emerging of the exact timeline of staggering failures that enabled an armed 20-year-old man with no military training to scale a building loaded with counter-sniper team cops in broad daylight and come within a hair’s breadth of killing former President Trump. The Beaver County Emergency Services Unit - which traveled to the Butler County, Pennsylvania, Trump rally from the neighboring Pittsburgh suburb - noticed Cooks on the roof, took a picture of him and reported it around 5:45 p.m. Not only did Crooks manage to avoid being confronted despite sticking out like a sore thumb, he secured his rooftop perch right under the noses of a local police sniper team stationed inside the AGR International Inc. factory next to the Butler County Farm Fair grounds which was being used by local police as a “watch post” for snipers to scan for threats as the former president spoke onstage only 130 yards away. Cops were inside, but not on the roof, during the shooting. Crooks was able to scale the building unchallenged before firing off up to eight shots with an AR-style assault rifle, grazing Trump in the ear, killing one Trump supporter ex-fire chief and wounding two others. Law enforcement sources said it was not clear as of Monday night whether any of the local officers - who were tasked with securing the perimeter outside the rally - were able to warn Secret Service agents about the gunman. Chilling video captured at the rally illustrates the botched security operation. This includes approximately two minutes of footage that could go down in history as a low point for the Secret Service in the agency’s more than 100-year history of protecting US presidents. A multi-feed video montage assembled by MilkBarTV, which has been viewed more than 3.5 million times on X, shows the attempted assassination play out in real time using clips from several vantage points. In it, more than 120 excruciating seconds pass between rallygoers first spotting Crooks on the roof and the moment he fires his rifle. Perhaps most disturbingly, the people who saw the would-be assassin repeatedly tried to alert law enforcement patrolling nearby. In the video, the two-minute timer the videographer suddenly verbally acknowledges a nearby commotion, apparently sparked by several rally attendees noticing Crooks on the roof. “Look, they’re all pointing,” he says of the crowd’s reaction to the unusual and troubling sight. Seconds later, the camera pans and captures what appears to be a uniformed police officer making his way around the front of the plant building where the 20-year-old gunman was hiding. At this point, more onlookers are crowding around to gawk, chatting about what they saw. “Yeah, someone’s on top of the roof, look! There he is right there, see him? He’s laying down, see him?” the videographer asks. “Yeah, he’s lying down,” a woman says in response. Just before the 17-second mark, Crooks comes into frame for the first time, appearing to be lying on his right side. By 22 seconds in, the crowd nearby is becoming more interested and is gathering closer to take a look, and the scene grows noticeably more tense. Ten seconds later, the videographer points out Crooks to another male bystander, and at the 34-second mark, Crooks can be seen very clearly altering his position to rest on his stomach. At this moment, with Crooks still visible in the frame and still adjusting his position, a male voice calls out, “Officer!” An anxious-sounding woman starts giving play-by-play of what she’s witnessing, seemingly while calling out to law enforcement. “Come over here, he’s on the roof! He’s flat! Right here, he’s flat on the roof! He’s standing up now, he went flat on the roof again.” At this point, other members of the crowd can be heard calling out as well, but their voices are indistinguishable. At the 52-second mark, the montage shifts perspective to a single image of Trump, who is still speaking on stage. The video is barely one minute away from the shooting. When the timer reaches 1 minute, 15 seconds, the view switches to a split-screen, both showing Trump in real time, who calls for a chart to boast about the low illegal immigration numbers under his administration compared to President Biden’s. At a minute, 49 seconds, the camera splits into four simultaneous views - two of Trump head-on, one from behind his back, and another view of the original cameraman who noticed Crooks on the roof. A second later, a man in what appears to be an Army uniform complete with green helmet steps into frame and appears to wave at the crowd before disappearing out of frame, walking in the opposite direction of the manufacturing plant building. At the 1 minute, 55 second mark, a man screams, “He’s got a gun!” The camera grows increasingly unsteady, but it captures what appears to be a uniformed police officer walking toward the building where Crooks is lying. At 2 minutes and 1 second, three distinct shots ring out and the scene erupts into chaos. As Trump hits the deck and the Secret Service swarms him, a chorus of blood-curdling screams erupts from the crowd. At 2 minutes and 8 seconds, a series of rapid gunshots can be heard as the audience continues screaming. Then a few seconds later, a man’s voice warns, “He’s turning this way, be careful!” and a woman shrieks before one final gunshot rings out. The camera’s focus shifts back to the roof, showing Crooks, lying motionless, his body blurred out. The gunman is dead. The surreal footage echoes what several witnesses told reporters after the shooting: Some rally attendees were aware of Crooks’ presence well before he fired. One local cop from the Butler Township police did manage to get hoisted onto the roof, and came face to face with the gunman, who pointed his rifle at the officer. The Butler County sheriff defended his failure to stop Crooks, saying the cop was still pulling himself up and had to let go when faced with the weapon. Law enforcement sources who have served on presidential protection details told that Secret Service field offices where events are taking place routinely engage in a budgetary tug-of-war with purse string holders back in Washington. The field offices usually get 'a fraction' of what they ask for, the sources said. This means the agency has to depend on local law enforcement to supplement its resources, and small municipalities typically lack the resources of major cities like New York. It was “absolutely a miracle” that Trump survived the attempt on his life, which was thanks in no small part to Crooks’ poor marksmanship. /video/ (Source: nypost): https://tinyurl.com/22njc9vd

July 16, 2024 10:02 PM GMT+2  The United States received intelligence in recent weeks about an Iranian plot to assassinate former President Trump, CNN said today. The White House said there were no indications that the suspected shooter in Saturday's attempted assassination of Trump had any foreign or domestic accomplices. CNN reported that the intelligence about the Iranian plot was passed on by a human source. "These accusations are unsubstantiated and malicious.' "From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Trump is a criminal who must be prosecuted and punished in a court of law for ordering the assassination of General Soleimani. Iran has chosen the legal path to bring him to justice," Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement. (Source: reuters)

July 16, 2024  The foreign-born population was estimated to be 46.2 million, or almost 14% of the U.S. total, in 2022, according to the Census Bureau, including about 11 million in the country illegally. Hardly a month passes without at least one in the country illegally getting charged with a high-profile, horrific crime. ’Peer-reviewed academic studies have generally found no link between immigration and violent crime’, though conclusions vary based on the data examined. A review of academic studies from 1994 to 2014 in the Annual Review of Criminology found that the most common conclusion was “a null or nonsignificant association between immigration and crime.” A study published by the National Academy of Sciences, based on Texas Department of Public Safety data from 2012 to 2018, found people in the country illegally had “substantially lower crime rates than native-born citizens and legal immigrants across a range of felony offenses.' Texas is the only state to track crimes by immigration status. “There’s a lot of research on immigration and crime, there’s far less on undocumented immigration and crime,” said Light, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, and co-author of the study on Texas data. The perception that immigration breeds crime “continues to falter under the weight of the evidence,’ according to a review of academic literature last year in the Annual Review of Criminology. Trump has reached the greatest political heights while linking immigration to violent crime, ’portraying the foreign-born as criminals’ - claims that immigrants are more responsible for crime than native-born Americans. “This is not coming from nowhere, says Bon Tempo, an immigration historian and associate professor at University at Albany. To the lowest month of Biden’s presidency, arrests for illegally crossing the border from Mexico plunged 29% in June - impact of a new rule to temporarily suspend asylum. Historians trace the ’unfounded’ narrative linking immigration to violent crime to at least the 1850s with the populist Know Nothing movement, also known as the American Party. (Members were required to say “I know nothing” when asked about the party.) In the 1850s German and Irish immigrants were targeted as degenerate thieves. In the 1880s the Knights of Labor reached its peak influence by associating immigrants with crime as part of an agenda for workers’ rights. Fear of crime helped produce laws in the 1880s against Chinese immigration. The undercurrent of popular belief that immigrants breed crime persisted through the 20th century and into the 21st. The high-level Dillingham Commission produced a 41-volume report in 1911 that found the government wasn’t doing enough to keep out criminal immigrants, reflecting views that other countries were sending America their worst. Johnson, a Republican newspaper editor who represented a Washington state congressional district, authored a 1924 law that severely restricted arrivals from outside Western Europe for four decades amid deep public anxiety about immigration. In 1929, Livingston Blease, a Democratic governor and U.S. senator from South Carolina who advocated lynching Blacks, spearheaded a law that made illegal entry a misdemeanor crime. The Wickersham Commission government report in 1931 noted the theory that immigration fuels crime is “almost as old as the colonies planted by Englishmen on the New England coast.” Crime has been an underlying fear even as Republican presidential candidate Buchanan spoke of an “illegal invasion” when focused on cultural issues in the 1990s. California Gov. Wilson, a Republican, dwelled on the idea that American citizens were being robbed of social services when he campaigned for a 1994 ballot measure to prohibit education and health care for people in the county illegally, which was approved by voters but largely thrown out in court. Tancredo led efforts against illegal immigration as a Republican congressman from Colorado in the 2000s, highlighting that federal prisons housed many who entered the country illegally. “They’re coming here to kill you, and you, and me, and my grandchildren,’ he said at a 2005 rally in New Hampshire. Trump launched his presidential bid in 2015 by saying Mexico is “sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” Trump elevated the profile of MS-13, a criminal gang with roots among Salvadoran immigrants, and of “angel families” whose loved ones were killed by people in the country illegally. “For years, their pain was met with silence; their plight was met with indifference’” he told a group of victims’ families at the White House in 2018. Trump and his allies describe violent crimes committed by people in the country illegally as preventable acts, especially when an assailant had previous encounters with police in the United States. A poll in March shows the share of Americans who say that there’s a major risk that legal immigrants will commit crimes in the U.S. has increased to 32% from 19% in 2017. At last month’s presidential debate Trump was saying that “millions” from prisons, jails and mental health institutions entered the country under Biden’s watch. (Source: thestar * / The Associated Press)
* Toronto Star
by Spagat

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United States
July 14, 2024 at 8:02 a.m.; July 13, 2024  Reporters covering the rally heard five or six shots ring out and many ducked for cover, hiding under tables. After the first two or three bangs, people in the crowd looked startled, but not panicked. An AP reporter at the scene reported the noise sounded like firecrackers at first or perhaps a car backfiring. Two firefighters from nearby Steubenville, Ohio, who were at the rally told the AP that they helped people who appeared injured and heard bullets hitting broadcast speakers. “The bullets rattled around the grandstand, one hit the speaker tower and then chaos broke, Takach said. “The first thing I heard is a couple of cracks,” Sullivan said. Sullivan said he saw one of the speakers get hit and bullets rattling and, “we hit the deck.” He said once Secret Service and other authorities converged on Trump, he and Takach assisted two people who may have been shot in the grandstand and cleared a path to get them out of the way. Sullivan recalled that fluid sprayed from a mechanical line on the stage before a speaker tower started to fall. “Then we heard another shot that, you could hear, you knew something was, it was bullets. It wasn’t firecrackers,” he said. Trump flew to New Jersey after visiting a local Pennsylvania hospital, landing shortly after midnight at Newark Liberty International Airport. Video posted by an aide showed the former president deplaning his private jet flanked by U.S. Secret Service agents and heavily armed members of the agency’s counter assault team, an unusually visible show of force by his protective detail. (Source: thestar *)
* Toronto Star, a Canadian English-language daily newspaper. Headquarters Toronto, Ontario

Jul 14, 2024, 5:29 AM CEST The picture, taken by Associated Press photographer Vucci, shows a blood-covered Trump holding up his fist against a backdrop of the American flag while being shielded by Secret Service agents. Trump Jr. posted the image on X with the caption, "He'll never stop fighting to Save America." His brother, Eric, followed up by posting the same image with the caption, "This is the fighter America needs!" /photo/ (Source: businessinsider *)
* Business Insider, a multinational financial and business news website. Headquarters New York City, U.S.

Sunday 14 July 2024 at 7:12am  Conspiracy theories about the event have emerged online. (Source: itw  - United Kingdom)

Jul 14, 2024, 9:34 AM  Biden reacts to possible attempted assassination of Trump after a gunman and rally attendee are dead, and Trump was whisked away by Secret Service. “Jill and I are grateful to the Secret Service for getting him to safety. There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.” Biden said he has reached out to Trump but has not talked yet, but hopes to later Saturday night. (Source: mehrnews - Iran)

Jul 14, 2024 11:32 IST  The rally began at 6:02 PM (local time) with Trump taking the stage at the Butler Farm Show grounds to the strains of “God Bless the USA. He waved at the cheering crowd and began his speech under the scorching midsummer sun. Just a few minutes later, Trump was criticising the Biden administration's handling of the southern border with Mexico, pointing to a projection of a chart showing a spike in illegal migrant crossings. “That chart’s a couple of months old,” Trump told the crowd. “And if you want to see something really sad -” At that moment, gunshots rang out. Trump clutched his ear as Secret Service agents, dressed in dark suits, dashed toward him. He dropped to the ground as the agents yelled, “Get down!” After about a minute, an agent yelled that the shooter was down. Crooks had positioned himself on the roof of a building about 120 metres from the stage. The building was outside the rally's security perimeter. /photo */ (Source: indiatoday *)
* India Today, a weekly Indian English-language news magazine, based in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

Sunday 14 July 2024 07:00, UK  Hours after the attempt on his life, he was seen giving a brief wave as he left his plane in Newark, New Jersey. (Source: skynews)

14/07/2024 - 07:54  Law enforcement officers said they had tentatively identified a suspected shooter but did not disclose details. (Source: france24 *)
* France 24, French international news television network based in Paris, owned by the French government

Jul 14, 2024, 9:19 AM  Moments of Trump assassination attempt. Footage shows the moment when Trump was shot in the right ear during a campaign rally on Saturday. Video/ (Source: mehr *)
* The Mehr News Agency, a semi-official news agency of the government of Iran. Headquartered in Tehran

July 14, 2024 10:29 IST  Chilling photo shows bullet flying past ex-president's head after piercing his ear. The FBI said it was unaware of the suspect on the roof until the shots were fired. Ghanbari: 'A remarkable photo captured by my former White House Press Corps colleague Mills. Zoom in right above President Trump’s shoulder and you’ll see a bullet flying in the air to the right of President Trump’s head following an attempted assassination'. (Source: theweek *)
* The Week, the largest circulated English news magazine in India, based in Kochi
(/photo /  Source: x *)
* X, its former name Twitter - a social networking service, one of the world's largest social media websites
(Jul 14, 2024) 2:19 AM  10,1 M views

14.07.24, 08:02 AM  The shooting was captured live on news channels, happened. As the bullet hit his ears, the former president was seen ducking with the secret service surrounding him. He could be heard making a few comments on an audio feed from the stage. Trump said, “Let me get my shoes,” as he was escorted to the safe place. He was seen pumping his fist to the public. The shocking incident happened two days before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump will formally become the party’s nominee. “I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin. Much bleeding took place, so I realised then what was happening. God bless America!” Trump said. According to Guglielmi, spokesperson of the US Secret Service, the incident happened around 6:15 pm local time when the suspected shooter fired multiple shots toward the stage from an elevated position outside of the rally venue. “US Secret Service personnel neutralised the shooter, who is now deceased. The US Secret Service quickly responded with protective measures and Former President Trump is safe. One spectator was killed, and two spectators were critically injured,” he said Eyewitness McEvoy (50) said he thought he heard eight to 10 shots. “I saw Trump go down, but then I saw him get up and he raised his hand that he was OK,” McEvoy told. (Source: telegraphindia *)
* The Telegraph, an Indian English daily newspaper. Headquarters Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Sunday 14 July 2024 01:44, UK  Gunshots reportedly fired at Trump rally - as former president rushed off stage. Trump was giving a speech in Pennsylvania when he fell to the ground. /(/video/ (Source: news.sky *)
* Sky News, a British television news channel. Headquarters London, United Kingdom

Sun 14 Jul 2024 at 9:05am; Sun 14 Jul 2024 at 12:21am  Trump has survived a shooting at a campaign rally in Butler, in western Pennsylvania, saying afterwards a bullet pierced his ear before Secret Service agents rushed him offstage. Screams tore through the crowd and Mr Trump grabbed at the side of his face and ducked behind a riser during the shooting. An attendee was killed and two others were critically injured. The shooter, who was on the roof of a nearby building, who the FBI named as 20-year-old Crooks was also killed. Mr Trump was taken away, with his fist in the air and blood on his face, during the incident. Trump has thanked Secret Service agents who rushed him off stage during a shooting at a campaign rally. "I want to thank The United States Secret Service, and all of law enforcement, for their rapid response on the shooting that just took place in Butler, Pennsylvania. Most importantly, I want to extend my condolences to the family of the person at the rally who was killed, and also to the family of another person that was badly injured. It is incredible that such an act can take place in our country. Nothing is known at this time about the shooter, who is now dead. I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin. Much bleeding took place, so I realised then what was happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" The Trump campaign released a statement shortly after the shooting that said he was 'fine". There was no reason to believe there was any ongoing threat, Pennsylvania State Police Lieutenant Colonel Bivens said. "We are absolutely not taking for granted that this was a lone wolf attack," he said. Earlier, the local county district attorney, Goldinger, told America's ABC News the shooter had been on the roof of an adjacent venue, so did not go through security screening. In an earlier statement, the Secret Service said 'multiple shots were fired from an elevated position outside of the rally venue'. "US Secret Service personnel neutralised the shooter, who is now dead," it said. Republican congressman Jackson said his nephew was wounded at the rally. 'He was grazed in the neck. A bullet crossed his neck, cut his neck and he was bleeding,' he told Fox News. "I was behind the former president, so I didn't see what happened", Mr Brzozowski described the scene. He said he saw police and paramedics attending to a man, dressed in a shirt displaying an American flag, who was lying on the ground. "I don't know if it was a shooter or somebody who got shot," he said. "All I saw was he was holding his stomach when the other two paramedics or cops were attending to him." Republican congressman Scalise, who survived a shooting in 2017, blamed Democrat leaders for 'fuelling ludicrous hysteria that Trump winning re-election would be the end of democracy in America'. Australia's ambassador to the US, Rudd, said it was a relief Mr Trump was safe. "All Australians are shocked by the attack on former president Trump at his campaign rally this evening in Pennsylvania," he said. Mr Trump is due to be endorsed as the Republicans' presidential candidate at the party's national convention in Milwaukee, which begins on Monday. The rally in Butler was the last one scheduled before the convention. The convention will go ahead as planned. /photo/ (Source: abc.net *)
* The Australian Broadcasting Corporation, the national broadcaster of Australia. Headquarters Sydney
by Hosier in Butler, Pennsylvani

July 14, 2024, Sunday // 01:59  "And then the worst president in the history of our country took over. And look what happened to our country. Probably 20 million people [came in illegally]. And, you know, that's a little bit old, that chart... that chart's a couple of months old. And if you want to really see something that sad, take a look at what happened over..." Trump said before the gunfire erupted. The former president had just started energizing the crowd when up to five shots were fired, causing him to go down, immediately surrounded by Secret Service agents. (Source: novinite *)
* Novinite (Sofia News Agency), Bulgaria's largest English-language news provider through its news website.

July 14, 2024 07:40 JST; Updated on July 14, 2024 20:20 JST  Secret Service spokesperson Guglielmi released a statement saying that the case is an active investigation. He said that at about 6:15 p.m., 'a suspected shooter fired multiple shots toward the stage from an elevated position outside of the rally venue.' At least two initial shots can be heard on audio of the incident. In the video footage, Trump holds his ear and crouches under the podium on his own volition. Secret Service members are heard shouting "duck, duck, duck, duck." Trump is heard saying to the Secret Service, "Let me get my shoes." Trump is leading in all seven of the most contested battleground states, according to the poll average compiled by political website Real Clear Politics. Incumbent President Biden has struggled to convince fellow Democrats that he is the best candidate to beat Trump, after a poor performance at the June 27 presidential debate. About an hour and a half after the incident, Biden released a statement. Tesla CEO Musk gave his endorsement to Trump shortly after the shooting, writing on X. World leaders - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Philippine President Marcos Jr., South Korean President Yeol condemned the shooting with statements on social media. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said China was "following the incident" and that Chinese President Xi had "expressed his sympathies." (Source: asia.nikkei *)
* The Nikkei, a national daily newspapers in Japan, the world's largest financial newspaper. Headquarters Tokyo, Japan.

14 Jul, 2024 10:34 am  A GoFundMe page for donations to support those wounded or the families of those killed in the rally has raised more than USD$170,000. The page was organized by the Trump campaign's national finance direct O'Rourke. "President Trump as authorized this account as a place for donations to the supporters and families wounded or killed in today’s brutal and horrific assassination attempt. "All donations will be directed to these proud Americans as they grieve and recover. May God bless and unite our nation." More than 2000 donations have been made since it was set up.      The Federal Aviation Administration has said the airspace over Bethel Park, where the shooter was from, was closed "effective immediately" for security reasons. The three spectators who were shot, including the one who was killed and two who were critically injured, were adult men. There were no police hit by gunfire. Pennsylvania Democratic Governor Shapiro said that he was also briefed on the situation and that state police were at the site. 'The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,' Vance wrote. “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.' Representative Collins (R-Ga.) went further: “Biden sent the orders,' he wrote on X, formerly Twitter. There is no evidence that Biden was behind the attack. (Source: nzherald *)
* The New Zealand Herald, a daily newspaper of record for New Zealand. Headquarters Auckland