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Europe
Hungary
July 22, 2024 6:09 pm CET Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU banned imports of Russian oil arriving at the bloc by sea, but allowed landlocked countries like Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to continue buying supplies via the Russia-to-Europe Druzhba pipeline transiting Ukraine until they could find an alternative solution. Kyiv last month adopted sanctions blocking the transit to Central Europe of pipeline crude sold by Moscow’s largest private oil firm, Lukoil, sparking fears of supply shortages in Budapest. Hungary relies on Moscow for 70 percent of its oil imports - and on Lukoil for half that amount. 'They should have foreseen the fact the EU was intending to end their exemption allowing them to keep buying Russian oil,' Levy, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air think tank said, 'and this should have been something that they planned for … because as we've seen, this is a real risk for their energy security.' Hungary had asked the European Union to take action against Ukraine for imposing a partial ban on Russian oil exports transiting the country, arguing the move was jeopardizing Budapest’s energy security. Budapest argues it’s facing an energy crunch. Kyiv's move "clearly violates’ the EU's 2014 association agreement with Ukraine, Hungary's Foreign Minister Szijjártó claimed at a meeting of EU envoys in Brussels. Hungary and Slovakia - also affected by the ban - have now begun talks with the European Commission, he added, a precursor to legal action. Slovakia relies heavily on Moscow for oil as well. The sanctions drew a fierce reaction from Slovak PM Robert Fico. “Slovakia doesn't intend to be a hostage to Ukrainian-Russian relations,' he said on Saturday, following a call with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. The ban means the country's central Slovnaft refinery would “receive 40 percent less oil than it needs,” Fico said, arguing it would also reduce Slovak fuel exports to Ukraine that make up a 10th of Kyiv's consumption. 'Russian oil spat escalates' (Source: politico)
European Commission
22/07/2024 - 20:04 GMT+2 Borrell accuses Orbán of disloyalty and 'joins' boycott against Hungary's EU presidency. The informal meeting of foreign ministers scheduled to take place in Budapest at the end of August will instead be held in Brussels. Today evening, Borrell refused to use the word 'boycott' to describe 'his decision' and insisted the Hungarian representative would nevertheless be invited to the Gymnich meeting in Brussels. 'We have to send a signal, even if it's a symbolic signal, that being against the foreign policy of the European Union and disqualifying the policy of the European Union as the "party of war' has to have consequences,' he added, noting the strong criticism labeled at Orbán's actions 'had been echoed by 25 members states' with "one single exception," widely considered to be Slovakia, which shares Budapest's viewpoint. The foreign policy chief took the opportunity to denounce, once again, Hungary's perennial veto of the bloc's military assistance for Ukraine, which currently affects €6.6 billion in reimbursements. 'Member states insisted that this was something unacceptable and terrible, but unhappily, the situation of blockage remains," he said. Borrell admitted he had "lost the hope" that Budapest would soon change its mind and warned the absence of reimbursements could disincentivise some capitals from providing Kyiv with further military assistance. (Source: euronews)
Monday, 22 July 2024 “What a fantastic response they have come up with,” Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjártó said after the meeting. “I don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings, but it feels like being in a kindergarten.” ’In a rebuke’ of Hungary’s controversial solo diplomatic efforts on Ukraine, the EU’s informal meeting of foreign and defence ministers will take place in Brussels instead of Budapest, the EU’s top diplomat Borrell said today. The EU’s informal foreign and defence ministerial on 28-30 August was the only one left, as it is the bloc’s only ministerial configuration that is called not by the rotating EU presidency, but by the EU’s chief diplomat. The step came after several EU member states said they would downgrade their participation in informal meetings planned in Budapest during Hungary’s EU presidency. Hungary chairs the rotating EU Council presidency until 31 December. According to several EU diplomats, 13 member states wanted the meeting to take place in Budapest, five said they would not attend and eight left it up to Borrell to decide. Some had even floated the idea of Borrell potentially calling the meeting symbolically in Kyiv, instead of Budapest. However, its backers remained in the minority. But given that 25 EU countries - minus Slovakia and Hungary itself - supported the condemnation of Orbán’s initiative, Borrell decided to go ahead with the decision, he said. ’EU countries rebuked Hungary and its Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for his self-declared “peace missions” to „Ukraine, Russia, China, and Florida’ (United States). Budapest never explicitly explained whether they had been conducted in the national or EU presidency capacity. “We fully support Hungary and the initiative for peace,” Slovakia’s Interior Minister Šutaj Eštok told reporters heading into a separate, informal EU home affairs ministers meeting today in Budapest. Hungary over the past weeks had accused the EU of having a 'pro-war policy' by maintaining military and financial support for Ukraine. (Source: euractiv)
Asia
China
22 July 2024 22:35 (UTC+04:00) China will gradually raise the retirement age, to combat demographic problems, to reduce the growing pressure on pension funds and slow down potential workforce reductions. The government's statement was part of a major policy document that also outlined plans to improve the strategy to combat the falling birth rate, which fell for the second year in a row in 2023 and is expected to decline for decades. Life expectancy in China has increased from 44 years in 1960 to 78 years by 2021. The national health authorities expect the number of people aged 60 and over to grow from 280 million to 400 million by 2035. By 2050 it is projected that people's life expectancy will exceed 80 years. Currently, the retirement age for men in China is 60 years. This limit is 55 years for women working in the office and 50 years for women working in factories. The reforms mentioned in the document are planned to be completed by 2029. According to estimates by the Chinese State Academy of Sciences, the pension system will run out of funds by 2035. (Source: azernews)
North America
United States
07/22/24 4:14 PM ET The Pentagon today announced a new strategy - the 2024 Department of Defense Arctic strategy, packaged into a 28-page report - to build up its presence in the Arctic region, which is becoming more contested militarily as climate change drives the melting of sea ice and opens up new passageways. The Defense Department, pushing to counter Russia and China in the Arctic, outlined a new effort that includes: investing in more Icebreaker ships, training forces for the Arctic, investing in regional bases and building out advanced technology for Arctic-based missions such as aircraft and communications infrastructure. The Defense Department plan focuses on a strategy to improve sensors, intelligence and information-sharing; engage with allies and partners to strengthen the U.S. presence; and launch more training and exercises in the Arctic to accustom troops to the cold and deploy new technology designed for the icy region. That includes modernizing the network of radars and sensors under the command of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and investing in satellites to provide coverage of the Arctic. “The strategic can quickly become tactical, ensuring that our troops have the training, the gear and the operating procedures for the unique arctic environment, [which] could be the difference between mission success and failure,” Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks said. Ferguson, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Arctic and global resilience, whose team crafted the new strategy, said they were looking at the “art of the possible” when it comes to building out new drones and aircraft, including research and development. The Pentagon also aims to invest in Arctic-specific manned aircraft and drones, along with investments in cold weather equipment and technology to enable troops to deploy in temperatures of minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit. A couple of weeks ago the U.S. announced the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, a multibillion dollar and multiyear pact with Finland and Canada to build more Icebreaker ships that can navigate the region. While the western security alliance NATO includes seven of eight Arctic states, Russia has the largest share of regional territory and the most developed military presence there. Russia has some 40 Icebreakers, according to the Pentagon, while the U.S. Coast Guard only has two operating ones that are expected to soon reach the end of their life. Russia is also continuing to invest heavily in the Arctic and renovate its installations. China has three Icebreakers and is not an Arctic state. But it often conducts research there that the U.S. says is military related, and Beijing is seeking to promote the Arctic as a shared space while gaining access to the region through investments. (Source: thehill)
Jul 22, 2024 at 11:28 AM EDT Harris would have to pick her own running mate if she were to become the nominee. A governor, who is popular, and has a strong economic record in their state, would be the most valuable foil for competing with Trump, Vance - Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro; North Carolina Governor Cooper; Michigan Governor Whitmer; Kentucky Governor Beshear or California Governor Newsom. (Source: newsweek *)
* an American weekly news magazine
July 22, 2024 7:04 pm CET Trump chose Vance as his VP candidate largely to boost the Republican ticket in Rust Belt states. The former president has an electability problem among women, and his pick for vice president only compounds it. (Source: politico)
NATO
July 22, 2024 Deterrence through a ‘tripwire' - the evolving ‘Tripwire’ on NATO's Eastern flank. NATO Enhanced Forward Presences (eFPs) are multinational, combat-ready forces which unify soldiers of several NATO members under a single command. Each eFP consists of a leading nation, which provides most of the troops and equipment, a host nation, and contributing nations. The latter are sending, on a rotational basis, their troops and equipment to the host country. The size and composition of each battlegroup varies, being tailored to specific geographical factors and threats. As an example, the eFP based in Latvia (which is notable for being the largest and most multinational of such formations) hosts 1,900 soldiers from eleven countries and is commanded by Canada. NATO’s newest member, Sweden, also plans on deploying its soldiers to Latvia as a contributing nation starting 2025. The tripwire doctrine posited that the death of even a few allied soldiers on host nations’ soil would generate enough political pressure to trigger a large-scale military response. Although a tripwire force lacks significant stopping power on its own, the fear of this subsequent larger reaction would be enough to dissuade potential aggressors. In this sense, the multinational composition of eFPs intended to ensure a broad response, involving several NATO member states. The original strategy underpinning eFP had dual utility. First, these battlegroups were designed small enough not to be perceived as a threat by Russia, while still enhancing host countries’ defensive capabilities. Second, these forces could provide sufficient deterrence despite them being vastly outnumbered by any invading force. A study interviewing Baltic and Polish security professionals, with Russia as a hypothetical aggressor, nevertheless questioned whether tripwire forces instill enough reassurance that allies will actually help in the case of an attack. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO enhanced its tripwire strategy by agreeing to scale up these battlegroups from battalion-size to brigade-size units at the Madrid Summit in 2022. The Latvian eFP, for example, has employed a three-step roadmap to accomplish this goal, which involves increasing its troop count to 2,200 by 2026. In addition to bulking up existing battlegroups, NATO established four new eFPs in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, extending the Alliance's forward presence from the Baltic Sea all the way to the Black Sea. Last month, Finnish Minister of Defence Häkkänen also revealed that Finland will be hosting a NATO command as well as a land force. The Madrid Summit agreed to enhance NATO’s ability to provide quick back-up by strengthening its high-readiness forces across all domains - land, sea, air, cyber and space. The current NATO Response Force consists of around 40,000 troops, which can be made available within two weeks, whereas the planned New Force Model elevates this number to 300,000. A component of the new model, the Allied Reaction Force, was activated earlier this month, which comprises cyber and space forces elements as well as more light infantry troops. Increasing soldiers and equipment also seems appropriate considering the current personnel problems European militaries are facing today. This is especially problematic due to widespread recruiting difficulties within Europe’s militaries. 'More troops is the name of the game in Europe’s current security environment.' (Source: wilsoncenter *)
* The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Washington, D.C based Government organization think tank
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