Egyik 19

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Europe

Hungary
09.05.2025  Ukraine today announced it had ordered two Hungarian diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours, responding to Budapest’s earlier expulsion of Ukrainian diplomats over espionage claims. The move follows Hungary’s decision to expel two Ukrainian diplomats accused of spying. Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said the individuals had been working under diplomatic cover at the Ukrainian Embassy in Budapest. The accusations came after Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed it had dismantled a Hungarian spy network operating inside the country, detaining two Ukrainian military veterans allegedly recruited by Hungarian intelligence to gather information on western defense lines. Szijjártó dismissed the allegations as propaganda, stating that Hungary had yet to receive official evidence from Kyiv. Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Hungary has maintained a neutral stance, refraining from sending military aid to Ukraine. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

France
09.05.2025  France, Poland sign strategic treaty to boost Franco-Polish ties, defense cooperation. French President Macron says 'agreement to help accelerate joint investments in European defense industrial base, including in production of weapons, ammunition'. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Romania
May 9, 2025  The EU and NATO state Romania should be compensated for aiding Ukraine, ’hard-right’ presidential frontrunner Simion said late yesterday, during a televised presidential debate with Dan. The eurosceptic nationalist Simion, 38, opposes military aid to Ukraine, is critical of the EU leadership and says he is 'aligned with' U.S. President Trump's Make America Great Again movement. Romania's president has a semi-executive role that includes commanding the armed forces and chairing the security council that decides on military aid. The president can also veto important EU votes that require unanimity. I will vote for the interest of the Romanian state without prioritising other states, Simion said during the debate. Our position towards Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine is one of neutrality not escalation, not supplying weapons. For the donated Patriot system and other spending by Romanians there should be reciprocity, he said. To date, Romania has donated a Patriot air defence battery to Kyiv, is training Ukrainian fighter pilots and has enabled the export of 30 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain through its Black Sea port of Constanta. Simion suggested he would veto Brussels military aid to Ukraine. Analysts have said a Simion victory could isolate Romania, erode private investment and destabilise NATO's eastern flank, where Bucharest plays a key role in providing logistical support to Ukraine. ’Under the ReArm Europe plan, the EU is looking to boost military spending by 800 billion euros ($876 billion) over the next four years, via loosening fiscal rules on defence investment and joint borrowing for large defence projects against the EU budget’. Simion said that for defence we have NATO, not the EU. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

2025.05.09  Romania’s 19 million voters will elect a new president on the 18th of May from among Simion and Dan, who have advanced to the second round. Guaranteeing the rights of the Hungarian minority living in Romania and the use of the Szekler flag were among the topics discussed in the first televised debate between the two remaining candidates in the Romanian presidential election - Dan, liberal candidate and independent mayor of Bucharest, and Simion, ultra-nationalist candidate and President of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). The candidates were asked what guarantees they would offer to the Hungarian minority living in Romania as head of state in the spirit of the country’s relations with its western neighbor, Hungary, to ensure that they can freely express their ethnic identity. And would they support the display of the Szekler flag at local cultural or sporting events? The Szekler flag has become a symbol of autonomy for the Hungarian community in Romania. Its public display has been a recurring source of tension between local authorities and the Romanian state. In Dan’s opinion, the use of a “symbol of territorial autonomy” should not be allowed at official events. Simion considers himself a representative of the sovereigntist movement. His politics differ sharply from those of leaders like Viktor Orbán or Giorgia Meloni. Simion’s nationalism often takes an openly antagonistic tone toward ethnic minorities - particularly Hungarians - rather than focusing primarily on defending national interests within the EU. His version of sovereigntism is more exclusionary and inflammatory, raising concerns that it could deepen ethnic tensions rather than simply affirm national identity. His opponent reminded Simion, who began his public career in the stands of sports stadiums, that Romanian fan communities have chanted anti-Hungarian slogans at football matches on numerous occasions in recent years. I would like to ask Mr. Simion if he was there, Dan inquired. Simion did not answer the question. (Source: Hungary Today / MTI)

European Union
May 9, 2025  'The fear of a new war is increasingly worrying Europeans'. ’Russia is looking more threatening than ever’. According to Ipsos’ monthly What Worries the World report, more and more Europeans fear the prospect of war. Frontline countries in Central Europe are most concerned. Concerns are particularly widespread in Poland (39%). The Netherlands, Germany and France are also seeing significant increases in the share of respondents who picked war as a top 3 concern (29%; 27%; 25%) . Hungary: 5%. Fears of war are less widespread in other parts of the world, with an average of 12 percent of respondents naming it a top concern across 29 countries. In South America, with less than five percent of respondents were in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Peru naming war as a top concern. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Russia
09.05.2025  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan today attended the military parade at the Red Square in Moscow, dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Also, the premier went on Facebook and posted a video from this military parade. (Source: News.am - Armenia)
1791 views
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09.05.2025  The topic of gas supplies to European countries is being raised during the talks between Moscow and Washington, Russian presidential aide Ushakov confirms. (Source: News.am - Armenia)

Asia

India
May 09, 2025 7:35 AM  Blasts rang out across the Indian city of Jammu late yesterday, during what the government said was a Pakistani drone and missile attack on military stations around the Kashmir region. Military stations at Jammu, Pathankot & Udhampur were targeted by Pakistani-origin drones and missiles along the international border in J&K today, India's Ministry of Defence said, citing places in and near the federal territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Sirens sounded and red flashes and projectiles erupted in the night sky above Jammu for about 2-1/2 hours. Two days of fighting have killed nearly four dozen people. Indian TV channels also showed flares and flashes in the sky above Jaisalmer city in Rajasthan state, which shares a border with the southern Pakistani province of Sindh. In a statement, Islamabad denied attacking Pathankot in India's Punjab state, Srinagar in the Kashmir Valley and Jaisalmer. Electricity in Jammu was slowly being restored after a blackout during the attack. Eight missiles, fired from Pakistan at the Jammu region towns of Satwari, Samba, Ranbir Singh Pura and Arnia, were intercepted by air defence units. The US Consulate General in Pakistan's Lahore ordered staff to shelter in place. India and Pakistan gained independence from colonial Britain in 1947. The countries have fought three wars, two of them over Kashmir, and clashed many times. The neighbours, which both claim Kashmir in full and rule over parts of it, separately acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s. (Source: AsiaOne – Singapore)

Pakistan
(Friday), May 9, 2025 at 10:30 JST  Global militaries to study India-Pakistan fighter jet battle. A Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday. There was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets. A dogfight between Chinese-made Pakistani jets and French-made Indian Rafale fighters will be closely scrutinized by militaries - including in China and the United States - seeking insights that could offer an edge in future conflicts. U.S. President Trump in March awarded Boeing the contract to build the U.S. Air Force’s most sophisticated fighter jet yet, which would likely include stealth, advanced sensors and cutting-edge engines. Social media posts focused on the performance of China’s PL-15 air-to-air missile against the Meteor, a radar-guided air-to-air missile produced by European group MBDA. There has been no official confirmation that these weapons were used. There are conflicting reports on whether Pakistan has the domestic version of the PL-15 from the PLAAF, China’s air force, or the lower-range export version publicly unveiled in 2021. Pakistan most likely has the export version. The French and Americans would likely be hoping for similar intelligence from India. Western analysts and industry sources said crucial details remained unclear including whether the Meteor was carried and the type and amount of training the pilots had received. Arms firms would also be anxious to separate technical performance from operational factors. A defense industry source from a Western country operating the Meteor said an online picture of a seeker appeared to feature the component of a missile that had missed its target. The Meteor’s range has not been officially published. European nations are exploring a mid-life upgrade for the Meteor, which specialist publication Janes says could involve propulsion and guidance, but analysts say progress has been slow. The United States is developing the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile via Lockheed Martin partly in response to the PL-15 and its beyond-visual-range performance - part of a broader reset of Western priorities toward China. (Source: The Asahi Shimbun - Japan / Reuters - United Kingdom)

North America

United States
May 9, 2025  The United States Department of State has a lengthy database of travel advisories, divided into four categories. Level 4 travel advisory is the most severe, warning Americans to simply "Do Not Travel" to those locations. This category of warning usually applies to active armed conflicts or countries that are enemies of the United States or have little to no diplomatic relationship with the United States. Yesterday, the State Department reaffirmed one of those Level 4 travel advisories, reminding travelers not to travel to Russia "for any reason" due to the following issues: Danger associated with the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine; The risk of harassment or wrongful detention by Russian security officials; The arbitrary enforcement of local laws; The possibility of terrorism. The U.S. government has limited ability to help U.S. citizens in Russia, especially outside of Moscow. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow has reduced its staff and the Russian government has restricted travel for embassy personnel. All U.S. consulates in Russia have suspended operations, including consular services. (Source: The Tribune – newspaper, covers San Luis Obispo County, California, U.S.)

May 09, 2025  Singer’s Elliott Management is kicking the tires on a deal: buying a stake in the Bulgarian extension of TurkStream—Russia’s last functioning gas pipeline that carries Russian natural gas into Europe. (Source: Oilprice - United Kingdom)

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Europe

Russia
8 May 2025  Russia has commenced its three-day ceasefire, announced in honour of WW2 Victory Day, today - May 8. Ahead of the May 8 ceasefire, Russia reportedly shot down 12 Ukrainian drones in Moscow. The Zhukovsky airport in the Moscow region and the main airport in Kaluga have been temporarily shut down. Apart from Xi, 28 leaders are expected to visit Moscow for the parade. Furthermore, representatives from North Korea and Russian-controlled Abkhazia and South Ossetia will also be present. (Source: Outlook - India)

Vatican
(May 8, 2025) 7:13 PM CEST  The doors have opened ... a new pope emerges.    7:14 PM CEST Prevost is elected the first American pope in history.    7:17 PM CEST Cardinal Prevost, an American missionary who spent his career ministering in Peru and leads the Vatican’s powerful office of bishops, was elected the first American pope. Prevost, 69, took the name Leo XIV. (Source: Associated Press – U.S.)
See also: AP News
by Winfield, Chief correspondent, Italy and Vatican

Europe
May 8, 2025  In London later today, a service will be held in Westminster Abbey and a concert, for 10,000 members of the public, at Horse Guards Parade. In Paris, French President Macron is expected to oversee a ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at the Arc de Triomphe. In Berlin, Chancellor Friedrich Merz will highlight how "Germany has remodeled itself into a beacon of European democracy' by laying a wreath at the central memorial for the victims of war and tyranny. Russia and President Putin will be celebrating its Victory Day one day later with a huge military parade on Red Square in central Moscow to mark the massive Soviet contribution to defeat Nazi Germany. (Source: ABC News - U.S.)

May 07, 2025  Any peace talks that did take place without the US, would lack a means of feasible enforcement. The European proposal to commit 25,000 troops to a Ukrainian peacekeeping force is unlikely to come to fruition, or have the required deterrent effect. In fact, a greater risk of commitments like this is that they overpromise a level of European capability to the Ukrainians that we would not be able to deliver on. This is becoming increasingly clear to military and political leaders in the West and, just as significantly, is evident to Putin too. (Source: The i Paper - United Kingdom)

 (Wednesday), 07/05/2025  Ukrainian drones caused massive disruptions at Moscow airports days before Russia’s Victory Day parade on Friday, with around 350 flights reportedly affected. Serbian President Vučić’s flight to Moscow to attend the parade was disrupted, his plane was reportedly forced to divert to the Azerbaijani capital of Baku. ’Brussels issued a stark warning to the Serbian leader a few days ago’, indicating that Vučić's visit would violate EU membership criteria and potentially hurt Serbia's accession process to the 27-member bloc. Earlier, Lithuania and Latvia have denied a flight with Vučić on board from crossing their airspace en route to Moscow for the Victory Day parade on Friday. Poland and Lithuania had denied flyover rights to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. His attendance remains uncertain at this point. Estonia also said it would not allow the aircraft carrying leaders heading to the Victory Day parade in Moscow to pass through its airspace. (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)

Asia

China
May 08, 2025  Chinese President Xi yesterday called for concerted efforts to defend the legacy of World War II (WWII) victory. Xi made the call as he arrived in Moscow for a state visit to Russia and celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union's Great Patriotic War. A massive military parade will take place in Moscow's Red Square tomorrow. Flags with the word Victory fluttered in the wind along the streets of Moscow, and the roads were lined with billboards and decorative windows depicting the history of the Great Patriotic War of the Soviet Union. Xi's visit comes at the invitation of Russian President Putin. This marks his 11th visit to Russia since he became the president of China. It will be Xi's second time attending Russia's May 9 Victory Day commemorations as Chinese president. In a signed article published in the Russian Gazette newspaper ahead of his arrival, Xi urged the international community to uphold a correct historical perspective on WWII. 'China and the Soviet Union were the principal theaters of that war in Asia and Europe respectively', Xi wrote. The two countries served as the mainstay of resistance against Japanese militarism and German Nazism, making pivotal contribution to the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War, he wrote. As the world is facing stiff headwinds from unilateralism, hegemonism, bullying and coercive practices, Xi emphasized the importance of multilateralism. (Source: Xinhua - China)

India
(8 May 2025 10:34 CEST)  All districts of Punjab put on high alert, public events cancelled. The state shares a 532-km border with Pakistan. At least 26 persons were killed in Pakistan in India’s strikes, reported AFP. Islamabad claimed that the strikes killed and injured several civilians and called the operation a violation of its sovereignty. The terror attack at the Baisaran area near Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam town on April 22 left 26 dead and 17 injured. The terrorists targeted tourists after asking their names to ascertain their religion, the police said. All but three of those killed were Hindu. (Source: Scroll - India )

(8 May 2025, 09:26 CEST)  In a counter-terror operation dubbed Operation Sindoor, the Indian Armed Forces struck deep into Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) early yesterday, reducing key terror facilities to rubble. Executed between 1:05 am and 1:30 am, the strikes involved a coordinated tri-services operation by the Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force. The operation targeted nine key terror sites, including five in PoJK, linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Among the primary targets was a major JeM stronghold in Bahawalpur, Punjab, known as Markaz Subhan Allah. Operational since 2015, Markaz Subhan Allah served as JeM’s main hub for training, indoctrination, and planning major terror attacks, including the Pulwama bombing on February 14, 2019. It housed top JeM leadership, including Chief Azhar, de facto Chief Mufti Asghar, Ammar, and other family members. Azhar frequently delivered anti-India speeches from this facility, rallying youth to join violent jihad. Regular arms and religious training sessions were conducted at the compound. High-resolution visuals confirmed the complete destruction of the Bahawalpur facility. At a press briefing in New Delhi, Foreign Secretary Misri, Colonel Qureshi, and Wing Commander Singh detailed the objectives and execution of Operation Sindoor. Colonel Qureshi named the four terror camps destroyed in mainland Pakistan as Bahawalpur, Muridke, Sarjal, and Mehmoona Joya. Markaz Subhan Allah, the operational HQ of JeM located 100 km inside Pakistan, was completely destroyed, she confirmed. The nine terror camps were chosen based on credible intelligence and with strict measures to avoid civilian casualties, Wing Commander Singh stated. She further revealed that Pakistan has maintained a network of 21 terror infrastructure sites across its territory and PoJK over the past three decades, including recruitment and launchpad centres. (Source: DD News, an Indian state-owned Hindi news television channel, founded by the Government of India)

May 8, 2025  India’s precision‐guided missile and air strikes on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir under Operation Sindoor lasted less than 30 minutes in the early hours of May 7 2025. Through the day of May 7, Pakistan claimed that it shot down three separate Rafale aircraft and one each of Russian origin MiG 29 and SU-30MKI. The Pakistani Defence Minister Asif claimed that the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) had shot these aircraft down during an aerial dogfight. Rafale, manufactured by the French giant Dassault Aviation is the most advanced type of combat aircraft in the inventory of the Indian Air Force (IAF). IAF operates 36 Rafale airframes. While India is yet to acknowledge any aircraft or equipment losses during or after Operation Sindoor, an image posted on X claimed to show parts of a Chinese origin PL-15 Air to Air missile which also allegedly fell in the Indian region of Punjab. While no concrete evidence has emerged connecting the alleged shooting down of an IAF Rafale to a PL-15 missile likely fired by a PAF J-10 fighter supplied to Pakistan by India’s main strategic threat China - the mere assertion is likely the manifestation of the worst case scenario in the defence policy planning circles in New Delhi. Even if judged purely from a fiscal perspective, if the types, numbers and nature of loss of the Indian aircraft as claimed by Pakistan is accurate it would amount to the loss of over $1bn in military hardware within a day for India. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Pakistan
8 May 2025, 15:20 (BST)  When India and Pakistan clash, their military backers clash. Islamabad currently gets the vast majority of its arms needs from China. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which tracks global arms trade, around 82 percent of imports between 2019 and 2023 came from its “iron brother.” Meanwhile, imports from the United States have collapsed. Beijing has been quick to supply Pakistan with armored vehicles, a jointly developed fighter jet (in the form of the JF-17 Block 3) and missile systems. At the same time, India’s main suppliers, Russia and France (which account for 36 and 33 percent of imports respectively), have been slower to fulfill their orders. Delhi has been increasing arms purchases from its Western allies and reducing its dependence on Russia. According to SIPRI, imports from Moscow have fallen from 75 percent of total imports to 36 percent. Purchases from France, Israel and the United States have surged since 2006. The Indian Air Force (IAF) operates a fleet of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the most advanced model of the aircraft, and still operates MiGs. The Rafale F3R has been described as a “4.5 generation fighter”, similar to the British Eurofighter Typhoon and almost on par with fifth generation systems such as the US-made F-35. A Rafale wreckage has been discovered in the interior of India, near the city of Bathinda? This is the first time a Rafale has been lost in combat. Neither Pakistani nor Indian aircraft crossed the border, instead engaging in a “standstill”-style conflict at times over 100 km. The PL-15 missile, carried by J-10C fighters, has never been used in combat before, and has not been field-tested against Western-made systems such as the Rafale. The PL-15E, exported to the Pakistani armed forces, can travel up to 145 km. For Pakistani air force pilots, the PL-15 missile has several advantages. After launch, it is equipped with a large booster rocket engine that briefly accelerates the projectile to speeds above Mach 5, i.e. hypersonic speeds. During flight, it is guided towards its target by an active electronically scanned array (AESA). It engages its own AESA radar as it approaches the target, locking on to the signal with deadly accuracy. The dual-pulse engine means that after the initial boost fades, a second boost can be generated within 10 kilometers of the target. The switch from the first radar system to the on-board version of the missile allows the aircraft that fired the missile to turn away from the target and escape possible counterfire. Pilot error or failure to follow battlefield rules may have contributed to the downing of the Indian Rafale. The alleged role of Chinese aircraft in the downing of a Rafale has sent shares in the aircraft’s manufacturer, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, up by as much as 20 percent. (Source: RUSI - United Kingdom)

May 08, 2025 12:30  The nine terror camps targeted by India include Muzaffarabad's Sawai Nala Camp and Syedna Belal Camp, Gulpur Camp, Abbas Camp, Barnala Camp, Sarjal Camp, Mehmoona Joya Camp, Markaz Taiba and Markaz Subhan in Bahawalpur. After the airstrikes, Pakistan declared a 48-hour airspace closure for all air traffic. India also closed about 25 flight routes that allow planes to enter Pakistan through the Indian airspace. In a bid to ease tensions, Pakistan's Defense Minister Asif said the situation could be "wrapped up" if India de-escalates. "If India backs down, we will definitely wrap up these things. But as long as we are under fire, we have to respond," he said. Terrorist outfit Al-Qaeda has released a statement, via its media arm As-Sahab Media. It called the Indian government the saffron regime and accused it of systematically waging war against Islam and Muslims. It claimed India had specifically targeted mosques and civilian settlements, killing and injuring several Muslims. It wrote, "The Muslims of India and Kashmir have long endured some of the worst forms of oppression and tyranny in history.’ ’The Hindutva-driven Bhagwa terrorists and their Modi-led government are currently waging a military, political, cultural, idelogolical and media-based war to eliminate Islam and Muslims from the entire Indian subcontinent.’ Al-Qaeda further vowed to avenge the bloodshed. (Source: NewsBytes – India)

May 08, 2025, 03:30 PM  Pakistan shot down 12 drones from India, the military said today. India sent Israeli Harop drones to multiple locations. Islamabad was saying it shot down five Indian aircraft. The Indian embassy in Beijing termed reports of fighter jets being shot down as misinformation. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

08 May 2025 07:52 BST  Comparative satellite images before and after the strikes released by Maxar Technologies show damage to mosques and buildings in Pakistan’s Punjab province. The pictures showed the impact on the Masjid-e- Markaz Taiba religious school in the industrial town of Muridke in northeastern Punjab, 33km north of Lahore.and in Bahawalpur in southern Punjab where the Jamia Mosque Subhal Allah complex came under attack after the precision strike. The Indian defence ministry yesterday blamed two terrorist organisations for the deadly attack on tourists in its side of Kashmir on 22 April. India said "no Pakistani military facilities have been targeted" and it only hit sites "from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed". Azhar, chief of Jaish-e-Mohammed, who was in Bahawalpur, said in a statement that his family members were killed in the strike. Pakistan said 31 civilians, including children, were killed in the strikes that hit six locations, calling it an act of war. Azhar said his older sister and her husband, his nephew and his nephew's wife, as well as his niece and five children from his family were killed in a strike on the mosque in Bahawalpur, Pakistan. Azhar is listed as a global terrorist by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and is sanctioned by countries like the US, UK, and India. He founded the Jaish-e-Mohammed after his release from an Indian prison in a deal for the release of hostages in the 1999 hijacking of Indian Airlines flight IC-814. At least 15 civilians have been confirmed dead so far in Indian-administered Kashmir in Pakistani firing at the border. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

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Europe

Germany
06.05.2025 Leader Merz, a parliamentary veteran with no prior government experience, has become Germany's new chancellor. Politician Merz's - Germany's 10th chancellor -  immediate priorities include revitalizing the stagnating economy, rebuilding voter trust, and containing the rise of the ’far-right’. During his campaign, Merz emphasized ’Germany's commitment to taking greater responsibility for European security’, has pledged 'to maintain military support for Ukraine’. Merz 69, has had a lengthy political career since the late 1980s, when he was first elected to the European Parliament. He served in the German parliament from 1994 to 2009, holding the leadership position of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) parliamentary group from 2000 to 2002. Merz has never held a government position. Critics are questioning his ability to lead Europe's largest economy through its current challenges. Between 2009 and 2020, Merz worked in the private sector as a corporate lawyer and board member at several major companies, including as 'chairman of the asset management firm BlackRock’ Germany. His confrontational approach and polarizing statements have made him one of Germany's least popular politicians. Merz's personal popularity remains well below that of the conservative leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union and former chancellor Angela Merkel. Following the elections, he announced that visiting Washington, DC to meet with US President Trump would be among his first priorities as chancellor, aiming to address trade, security, and other key issues. The leader is planning to make his first official visits to France and Poland tomorrow. He emphasized that EU member states must present a unified position and pursue common European interests in negotiations with Trump. The leader has also been a strong supporter of Israel, repeatedly declaring that Israel's security is part of Germany's reason of state, and has pledged to strengthen bilateral relations during his chancellorship. Following his election victory, Merz spoke with Netanyahu by phone and later told reporters they had also discussed a potential Berlin visit, stating he would find ways and means to make such a visit possible. He did not make any comment about the Israeli government’s war crimes or killing of thousands of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, but criticized the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. ’On Ukraine, Merz is advocating for enhanced military support, including long-range Taurus missiles capable of reaching Russian territory’, which ’help Kyiv disrupt Russian military supply lines, particularly those connected to Crimea’. A recent poll by the public broadcaster ZDF revealed that more than half of respondents oppose his leadership - only 38% support him as chancellor, while 56% disapprove. Since 2015, Germany has accepted more than 2 million refugees and asylum seekers. About the new coalition's effectiveness: 48% believe the conservative-social democrat alliance will help solve Germany's problems, while 47% doubt it. The new coalition agreement sets forth stricter measures to curb irregular migration, which will be implemented under the leadership of new Interior Minister Dobrindt. There will be controls at national borders and returns of asylum seekers at the border, Merz said. We will intensify deportations, end voluntary admission programs, and suspend family reunification, he stressed. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

May 6, 2025  German leader is elected chancellor after historic first-round loss in the Bundestag - first of its kind in post-war Germany. The coalition of CSU/CDU and SPD has 328 seats in the German lower house of parliament Bundestag, more than enough to secure a majority victory, the position of chancellor. The coalition deal is involving his party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU); its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU); and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Merz would have needed to win 316 out of 630. However, at least 18 Members of the German Parliament in the coalition did not back him - Merz received 310 votes, while 307 members voted against him and nine others abstained. In the second round, 325 lawmakers voted for Merz, bringing him past the 316-vote threshold. The ’far-right’ Alternative for Germany (AfD) has already demanded that Merz step down and call for new elections following his loss in the first round. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Tuesday 06 May 2025  The debacle. Merz’s voting debacle could upset his ambitious plans for the EU. Germany’s Merz today became the first chancellor-in-waiting to fail to form a coalition government at the first attempt. The conservative leader needed 316 votes in the 630-seat Bundestag to form a majority in parliament but unexpectedly fell six seats short just over two months after winning the snap election. Mr Merz was expected to be Germany’s next chancellor upon his party, the Christian Democrat Union (CDU) winning February’s snap election, prompted by the collapse of incumbent chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD coalition in November. The SPD came third in February’s election, with 120 seats, behind the 'far-right' Alternative for Germany (AfD) on 152 seats, and Mr Merz’s CDU with 208. Today’s vote was expected to be a formality. The SPD and the CDU had spent months making concessions to one another in order to form a viable coalition. Together, the CDU and SPD should command 328 votes, meaning 18 members of Mr Merz’s intended governing majority failed to vote for him in today morning round. After the results were read out, the CDU leader immediately began discussions with colleagues in the Bundestag to expedite a second vote. ’After the collapse of the previous SPD-led coalition late last year, Mr Merz had hoped to start his own government from a position of strength’. In March, Mr Merz promised to do ’whatever it takes’ on defence spending, to strengthen the defence capability ’of Germany and the European continent’. He led calls for Europe to ween itself off America’s military strength. It is the first time in Germany’s post-Second World War history that a prospective chancellor has failed to secure a majority government at the first round of voting. “Merz failed to secure a majority because he had to abandon large parts of his own campaign platform in order to buy the SPD’s support. In doing so, he disappointed parts of his own party while still not conceding enough to satisfy the SPD", AfD spokesperson Braga told. Following today morning vote, AfD co-leader Weidel, slammed Mr Merz's failure proof that his coalition has a weak foundation. She called for Merz to resign immediately and for new elections to be held.  (Source: The Independent – United Kingdom)

May 06, 2025  Merz failed to secure enough votes to become the next German chancellor for all the careful choreography of his confirmation. MPs humiliatingly failed to confirm him on today morning – unprecedented in Germany’s history as a federal republic. SPD members backed the deal last week, their leaders formally signed the deal yesterday with the CDU/CSU. Today’s vote in the German parliament, the Bundestag, was supposed to be a mere formality. The coalition has 328 representatives, and Merz needed just 316 votes to be confirmed by the 630-member chamber. Members in Merz’s own coalition voted against him. Needing a majority of 316 out of 630 votes in a secret ballot, he received 310. The 69-year-old CDU leader - a former investment banker - is a polarising figure. He is recognised as dynamic and clever, known for being hot-headed, combative and politically impulsive. Germany’s partners – especially the European Union authorities were hopeful that after the torpor of the 'ultra-cautious' Scholz, Merz can bring Berlin back to the fore. His ’defence’ plans and his ’outspoken criticism’ of US President Donald Trump suggest ’he is ready to revive the motor driving the EU’. These expectations may be overblown. Merz will almost certainly find a way to clinch the vote. However, it is a reminder that for all his achievements in cobbling a coalition, his position is far from assured. At home, his base is far from steady. Merz still needs to secure a fragile coalition. In the February 23 elections, his CDU-CSU alliance secured just 28.5 per cent of the vote, while the AfD came second with 20.8 per cent. This already thin margin has vanished: last month, a poll put the AfD on 26 per cent and the CDU/CSU on 25 per cent. ’The whole of Europe looked to Berlin today in the hope that Germany would reassert itself as an anchor of stability and a pro-European powerhouse, said Puglierin, who heads the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations’. “That hope has been dashed”. AfD leader Weidel responded to the Bundestag debacle by calling for snap elections. (Source: The i Paper – United Kingdom)

Romania
(Tuesday), 06.05.2025  Romania’s Interior Minister Predoiu was named interim prime minister today, as the country grapples with political instability following the resignation of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, after 'far-right' candidate Simion secured a decisive victory in Sunday’s presidential election. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

06.05.2025  European right-wing leaders yesterday celebrated Simion’s showing in the first round of Romania’s presidential election, in which the ’far-right’ candidate emerged as the clear frontrunner. Salvini, Italy’s deputy premier and transport minister, congratulated Simion on X, describing the result as a triumph of popular will over political elites. ’In Romania the people finally voted, freely, with their heads and hearts. With all due respect to the ‘gentlemen’ of Brussels and their dirty tricks,” Salvini wrote. Former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who now serves as president of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament, also extended his congratulations to Simion, as did French ECR Vice President Maréchal. Simion, 38, is known for his ultra-nationalist and Eurosceptic rhetoric. Representing the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), he received over 40.9% of the vote in the first round on May 4. He will face off in the May 18 runoff against Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest, who came in second with around 21% of the vote. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

5 May 2025 Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has resigned and his Social Democrat party is to leave the government after a right-wing nationalist candidate won the first round of the presidential election. Ciolacu's party was part of a three-party coalition and the prime minister told his colleagues they had come together with the aim of having a joint presidential candidate and a parliamentary majority. One of these two objectives has failed, he explained. Simion's victory on Sunday was largely driven by popular frustration at the annulment of presidential elections late last year. His likely success on 18 May is awaited nervously in European capitals, as well as in Kyiv. He has called for restoring Romania's old borders and has been banned from entering Moldova and Ukraine. Public resentment at Romanian financial support for Ukrainian refugees has been a central plank in Simion's campaign. Simion did particularly well with Romania's diaspora voters, polling more than 73% in Spain and almost 65% in the UK among a broadly blue-collar electorate. He has said he wants an EU of strong, sovereign nations and his party has opposed supply weapons to Ukraine. Ciolacu is now expected to submit his resignation to interim president Bolojan, who will then appoint a caretaker prime minister. Bolojan himself took on the role of interim president last February because of the scandal surrounding the annulment of the presidential vote. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

May 5, 2025  On May 18, voters must decide between Simion, a 38-year-old firebrand who leads the 'far-right' Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), and Dan, the cerebral, 55-year-old pro-European mayor of Bucharest. Dan represents everything Simion opposes: technocratic governance, European integration, and civic activism. As Bucharest’s mayor, he has fought corruption, and modernised the city’s crumbling infrastructure. His Sorbonne PhD in mathematics symbolises his faith in evidence-based policy-making - a stark contrast to Simion’s emotional nationalism. Simion’s programme is a cocktail of populist promises and nationalist rhetoric. He pledges to take back control from Brussels, negotiate Romania’s EU budget contributions, and prioritise Romania first policies. Foreign investors, already jittery after the electoral turmoil of November, could flee. The Romanian leu might plummet. Borrowing costs would soar as markets price in the risk of a sovereign debt crisis. Unlike the gradual drift from liberal norms seen in Hungary and Poland, a Simion presidency would represent a dramatic rupture. Any chance of restoring economic growth, not long ago the highest in the EU, would evaporate. The flow of European structural funds, worth 80 billion euros over seven years, 'would dry up as Brussels invokes its rule-of-law mechanism'. Migration, which has already seen four million Romanians leave since EU accession in 2007, would accelerate. Domestic businesses, particularly in tech and manufacturing, would relocate to more stable jurisdictions. Simion's success reflects a profound alienation from Romania’s political class. He denounces Romania’s leaders as puppets of Brussels, questions NATO’s military spending requirements, and rails against the betrayal of traditional values. His rallies feature calls for "Romanian withdrawal from the EU’s migration quotas". The geopolitical implications dwarf the economic damage and threat to challenge Romania’s borders with Ukraine and Moldova. Simion's vision for Romania includes recovering lost territories in Moldova and Ukraine, echoing irredentism. He has vowed to end Romania’s support for Ukraine. While stopping short of his disqualified predecessor’s outright praise for Putin, he has called for neutrality and described Ukraine’s territorial integrity as negotiable. Romania shares a 650-kilometre border with Ukraine - the longest among EU countries. Its Black Sea port at Constanța handles millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain exports. The country hosts NATO’s largest land base on the alliance’s eastern flank and 'has welcomed over 100,000 Ukrainian refugees'. For Ukraine, the consequences would be immediate and severe. Romania provides logistical backbone for Western military aid flowing through the Black Sea corridor. It served as the primary alternative route for grain exports when Russia blockaded Ukrainian ports. A Simion government would likely restrict both, potentially collapsing Ukraine’s agricultural economy and disrupting NATO’s supply lines. Moldova, already struggling with separatist threats and energy crises, 'would lose' its main EU ally. Putin would suddenly find his Black Sea strategy transformed, with a 'friendly power' controlling the western coast. (Source: Emeging Europe - Romania)

05/05/2025  Propelled by nationalist rhetoric, rural discontent and a viral TikTok strategy, 'far-right' leader Simion won almost 41% in the first round of Romania’s re-run presidential vote yesterday, setting up a decisive run-off with a pro-EU candidate that will determine the country’s democratic and geopolitical course. Simion’s campaign flooded TikTok with dozens of videos daily, often filmed in rural settings. Many featured fiery monologues, flag-waving backdrops and anti-Brussels messaging. Meme pages and nationalist influencers helped spread his message in formats tailored to a younger, disillusioned audience. TikTok, since last year’s disinformation controversies, said it removed over 27,000 fake accounts linked to Simion and Georgescu and formed a Romanian election task force to combat manipulation. Simion swept economically struggling rural regions, where discontent with unemployment and state neglect runs deep. He often is claiming he defends those who want to work but are mocked by the system. His campaign focused on reclaiming sovereignty, including promises to nationalise farmland and strategic sectors. Simion has branded himself Romania’s MAGA president. Washington has weighed in on Romania’s political futures. In February, US Vice President Vance condemned the annulment of Georgescu’s first-round victory, while White House adviser Musk repeatedly criticised Romanian authorities on his social media platform X. In the first round, just over 9.5 million voters participated, representing 53.2 percent of eligible voters. Simion victory could decisively shift Romania’s foreign policy and its commitment to democratic institutions. There would be less support for Ukraine, more MAGA-aligned interests and a potential democratic backsliding. For Dan, mobilising urban and diaspora voters, a democratic coalition will be essential. (Source: France 24)

May 05, 2025  Last November, authorities annulled the results of Georgescu, a ’pro-Russian nationalist’ seen as a fringe candidate amid accusations of a Russian influence campaign to boost his candidacy. Georgescu was banned from running in the new elections. The canceled vote drew criticism outside of Romania, most prominently from US Vice President Vance, who weighed in during a speech at the Munich Security Conference in February. Now, near-final results have given ultranationalist Simion, the 38-year-old leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) party a victory 'in the first round' of Romania's presidential election. He led with about 40.9 percent, or 3,857,463 votes. The 55-year-old Dan - considered a political moderate - overtook Antonescu, a member of the country's ruling coalition helped by diaspora voting, lifting him into the second round of Romania's crucial presidential election. Dan had 20.98 percent of votes to Antonescu's 20.1 percent, representing a lead of 82,000 votes. Nearly all diaspora votes had been tallied - an estimated 973,000 people cast ballots in the diaspora. Simion led diaspora voting with 61 percent, followed by Dan with 26 percent, and Antonescu with 6.8 percent. Exit polls earlier gave Simion a smaller lead and included a higher total for Dan. In a pre-election report, monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) criticized some of Romania's registration and vote tallying procedures. ’We are approaching an exceptional result, far beyond what the [mainstream] television outlets are presenting...which only know how to stir up division with arrogance, to spray venom, and to distort everything and spread lies,’ in remarks recorded earlier in the night, Simion told supporters through a video link. ’Together we wrote history today.’ Simion has publicly embraced some of the rhetoric of US President Trump and his Make America Great Again movement. He recently said he's perfectly aligned ideologically with the MAGA movement. On April 24, electoral authorities announced an investigation into Simion's political party over allegations that Simion it had violated campaign-financing rules, organized a $1.5 million payment to a US lobbying firm to set up meetings in Washington with prominent media figures allied with Trump. The vote was closely watched outside of Romania, because Simion has made statements claiming parts of Ukrainian and Moldovan territories as well as questioning Romanian military aid to Ukraine. He has also criticized Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The election campaign drew outside observers to monitor the vote. The Trump administration sent election observer, a top official from the Federal Election Commission, which oversees US elections. A second round of voting between the top two candidates will be held on May 18. (Source: RFE/RL - U.S.)

European Union
Tuesday, 2025-05-06  According to the EU Asylum Agency's (EUAA) Monday report, in February 2025, Syrians filed approximately 5,000 asylum requests across the 27 EU member states, along with Switzerland and Norway - a 34% decrease compared to January. The total number of asylum applications received by the EU, Norway, and Switzerland in February stood at around 69,000. Syrians, once the largest group of asylum seekers, fell to third place, behind Venezuelans and Afghans. (Source: Shafaq News - Iraq)

Russia
May 06 (2025)  NATO and the European Union have launched programs aimed at preparing the collective West for a direct military conflict with Russia, Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu said. Incited and patronized by London and Paris, the European elites continue to make loud statements about the need to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, Shoigu said in his article "On the importance of the lessons of the Great Patriotic War for ensuring national security in modern geopolitical conditions" for the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper. ’But not only that. Accompanied by this annoying hype, NATO and the European Union have launched programs aimed at preparing the collective West for a direct military conflict with Russia. These aggressive steps, as well as NATO's continuing advance to the east, to Russia's borders, are justified by Russophobic fabrications in the best traditions of Goebbels' propaganda,’ Shoigu added. (Source: MEHR News Agency – Iran)

Ukraine
May 6, 2025  Corpses for cash. Corruption follows Ukrainians through every aspect of their lives, even to their graves. Corruption stalks Ukraine’s war dead. Corruption allegations are connected to military procurement or bribes paid to avoid recruitment into the armed forces. Estimates for 'the number of Ukrainians killed in three years of war range from over 40,000 to 100,000'. The war creates fertile ground for new corruption schemes in which criminals profit from people’s grief, said Lysko, a senior investigator at the National Police of Ukraine. In the spring of 2023, in Poltava, a city in eastern Ukraine, local government official Nechyporenko needed someone to help transport some of the dead from near the front lines to be buried in their home region. He turned to funeral director Burgardt. At a meeting at a city cemetery, the two men thrashed out their deal: Burgardt would get the contract for bringing corpses back from the morgue, and Nechyporenko, then deputy head of funeral services, would receive share of the fees Burgardt received. Later that month, the funeral director met the official to hand him his 13,200 hryvnia cut, some $320. Nechyporenko has been suspended from work as the case continues. Burgardt, who has not been charged, said he had gone to the police after Nechyporenko demanded more kickbacks. Police, emergency officials and medical workers are routinely paid by funeral homes for tips on imminent or actual deaths. Some funeral homes pay officials to win large contracts for transporting or burying dead troops. Funeral homes overcharge councils for soldiers’ headstones and coffins and split the difference with officials. The problem of corruption intruding on fallen soldiers’ funerals is felt across the country, from Odesa to Zaporizhzhia. Police in Kryviy Rih last month said they arrested eight local officials and a funeral-home owner on bribery charges over the transportation of soldiers’ corpses and other alleged crimes related to funeral services. Any family that has lost a soldier can claim around 15,000 hryvnia, or $360, from the state toward funeral costs. Families taking that cash can decide where the ceremony takes place but not who conducts it. Local authorities put the dead out to tender and funeral homes bid for the right to handle ceremonies in batches. Funeral homes sometimes pay authorities to win that business in the eastern city of Zaporizhzhia. Often the terms of the tender are customized in a way that only one bidder can win, such as coffins being specified to a standard that only one company follows. Ovcharenko had no choice of who conducted the Dnipro funeral of her infantryman son last October. The funeral home chosen for her provided a cheap coffin and memorial cross, and a bouquet of fake flowers, she said. Ovcharenko, who raised her only child as a single parent, spent 30,000 hryvnia, or $723, of her own money for a better cross and colored gravel to cover the grave. In Odesa, city authorities also pay for grave stones for local soldiers. But police are investigating whether some funeral homes are overcharging councils for monuments and giving a cut of the proceeds to officials, according to Lysko. Since 2021, the year before Russia’s invasion, the number of criminal convictions in corruption cases increased by almost 10% to 5,235 last year, over a period in which Ukraine’s population has fallen by around a quarter, mostly as a result of refugees leaving. The business of burying Ukraine’s dead, both soldiers and civilians, remains a focal point for graft—and those who refuse to take part often lose out. Sorrow Funeral Home in the town of Rodyns’ke,is the last to offer services to the under-fire city of Pokrovsk, on the eastern front line. It never pays bribes and would get half the custom of another local funeral home, its owner, Popov, said. Transparency International, a corruption-tracking nonprofit, ranks Ukraine 105th out of 180 countries. (Source: VSJ - U.S.)

Asia

China
Monday, May 5, 2025  China’s military forces are escalating preparations for a military attack the military operations represent a steady flow of expanding training and rehearsals for a future attack against Taiwan. The Chinese military also is conducting frequent ’pressure operations’ around Taiwan that simulate the closing of a military zone. The PLA in 2021 held a single brigade exercise near Taiwan and followed it with a six-brigade drill in 2022 and a 42-brigade exercise in 2024. „We notice quick change,” Adm. Paparo said of People’s Liberation Army operations in remarks at a conference hosted by the McCain Institute on Friday. The 2024 war games involved two-thirds of the PLA navy’s amphibious fleet with hundreds of assault combat vehicles in the water that practiced breaching barriers and obstacles and then moving military forces on land in simulated attacks on urban terrain, he said. 'These are rehearsals for selective blockade quarantine, and then we’re seeing rehearsals across the board and so that that number from one, to six, to 42 are step level changes in the environment,' the four-star admiral said. Growing ties and partnerships between China and two other U.S. adversaries, Russia and North Korea, also are worrisome. 'All of it is palpable over the last year,' Adm. Paparo said. The military rehearsals by China described by Adm. Paparo last year range from small island seizures -  like Taiwan’s small island near the Chinese coast - to larger operations like blockade rehearsals that would seek to prevent the island from receiving needed resources. Last are rehearsals for large-scale invasion operations across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. Adm. Paparo described the rehearsals as the ’entire range of military operations, providing every option that they would want.' China, he noted, is producing two submarines a year versus 1.4 for the United States and six warships for every 1.8 U.S. naval combatant. China also is producing 120 fighters a year to about 90 for the United States. Beijing has set the stage for a military takeover in 2005 by passing an anti-secession law that can be used to try an annexation if Taiwan declares formal independence or is seen moving further away from mainland control. Other signs of increasing Chinese belligerence in the region include recent naval patrols and live-fire exercises around Australia and New Zealand. Asked about the balance of power between the United States and China, Adm. Paparo said he is convinced the United States would prevail in a war, based on American military advantages in submarine warfare, counterspace ’and the ability to strike Chinese forces from the surface to the Karmann line’ - a zone 62 miles above Earth. On North Korea, Adm. Paparo said its ties to Russia will result in greater military capability for Pyongyang. This is a dangerous and unpredictable potential adversary, he said. (Source: The Washington Times - U.S.)

India
6 May 2025 22:32 CEST ’A little while ago, the Indian Armed Forces launched ‘OPERATION SINDOOR’, hitting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed. Altogether, nine (9) sites have been targeted,’ a statement from the Indian armed forces reads, adding: ’India has demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution’. It said its actions have been ’focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature’ and that no Pakistani military facilities were targeted. The statement says the strike comes in the wake of the 'barbaric' attack in which dozens of Indians were murdered in Pahalgam in Kashmir. Pakistan vows response to ‘heinous provocation’ (Source: The Guardian – United Kingdom)

Tuesday 06 May 2025  India calls for drills to test war preparedness. Pakistan conducts second missile test in days. The home ministry has ordered several states and federal territories to conduct mock drills to test air raid warning sirens, evacuation plans, implement crash blackout measures, and training people to respond in case of any attacks. The announcement of the drills came after prime minister Narendra Modi chaired a high-level meeting with top defence officials, including national security advisor Doval, defence secretary Singh, and Air Chief Marshal AP Singh. Yesterday, Pakistan carried out its Fateh series - second - missile test, testing a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 120km, two days after it claimed a successful launch of the Abdali surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450km. The situation remains volatile at the Line of Actual Control, the 740km frontier separating the Indian and Pakistani-administered parts of Kashmir. Cross-border firing has continued from both sides for the 11th straight night. (Source: The Independent – United Kingdom)

North America

United States
05/06/2025  The United States will stop strikes against Yemen’s Houthi group, President Trump announced today, after a nearly-two month bombing campaign. He said the halt would start immediately. The Houthis approached the administration yesterday night indicating no longer attacking American ships - “they want to stop the fighting,” he said. Omani Foreign Minister Albusaidi confirmed that his country mediated talks between the Houthis and the U.S. The Houthis have launched more than 500 strikes on commercial ships in the Red Sea and against Israel since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. The group hasn’t targeted a commercial vessel since late December. The Trump administration labeled the Houthis a terror group in March. The military has struck at least 800 targets in Yemen and killed hundreds of Houthis since March, according to U.S. Central Command. Israel escalated strikes against the Houthis yesterday night with 20 fighter jets bombing the rebel-held port city of Hodeidah. Israeli forces were responding to a ballistic missile strike against the Jerusalem airport by the group. The Trump administration’s military effort, dubbed “Operation Rough Rider” by the Pentagon, has helped reduce ballistic missile launches by 69 percent this year and cut launches of one-way attack drones by 55 percent. The costs have continued to pile up with an extraordinary display of U.S. military force. Defense Secretary Hegseth extended the deployment of the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group in the region and sent a second carrier, the USS Carl Vinson, in a major allocation of resources. The Pentagon also sent six B-2 bombers to the U.S. airbase at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean - a third of the entire U.S. fleet. The strike halt comes before Trump heads to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates next week. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

06.05.25  The Trump administration is offering a cash stipend and travel home to immigrants in the country illegally who willingly leave the United States. The policy will offer $1,000 and a flight home to each immigrant who leaves. “But what we thought we’d do is a self deport where we’re going to pay each one a certain amount of money and we’re going to get them a beautiful flight back to where they came from, and they have a period of time, and if they make it, we’re going to work with them so that maybe someday, with a little work, they can come back in if they’re good people,” Trump said. The money being offered to migrants will be paid after they confirm their travel home through a government app called CBP Home. Officials say the program will save the government money by avoiding the costs necessary to arrest, detain and fly people out of the country on government-chartered planes. The Trump administration announced last week that it had deported around 140,000 migrants from the U.S. since January. (Source: Telegraph India)

Mon May 5, 2025 Today US Secretary of Defense Hegseth has ordered senior Pentagon leadership to cut the number of four-star generals and admirals by at least 20% across the military, “removing redundant force structure to optimize and streamline leadership by reducing excess general and flag officer positions.” As of 2023, there were 37 four-star generals and admirals across the entire military. The memo also directs the Pentagon to cut the number of general officers in the National Guard by 20%, and to cut the total number of general and flag officers across the military by 10%. There are currently about 900 general and flag officers - those with the rank of one star or higher - across the military. The Pentagon has been considering making significant cuts to the top of the military, potentially consolidating combatant commands, such as merging European Command and African Command. Hegseth said during a podcast interview last summer that he believes roughly a third of the military’s most senior officers are actively complicit in the politicization of the military. In a second podcast, Hegseth claimed that senior officers in the military are playing by all the wrong rules to cater to idealogues in Washington, DC. “And so they’ll do any social justice, gender, climate, extremism crap because it gets them checked to the next level,” he said. (Source: CNN - U.S.)

May 5, 2025  As the Soviet Union collapsed and the Berlin Wall fell, the peace dividend promised reduced defense spending and, with it, a smaller industrial base. When Defense Secretary Aspin gathered industry leaders, the message was clear: consolidate or disappear. The merging of the defense-industrial base in the 1990s created clear horizontal market era dominated by platforms. Lockheed Martin claimed the skies, General Dynamics commanded the land, Northrop Grumman secured space, Raytheon dominated missiles and electronics, and Boeing straddled commercial and military aviation. This horizontal segmentation mirrored the strategic realities of late Cold War military doctrine. Distinct domains of warfare operated with relative independence, military operations were compartmentalized by service branches with distinct requirements, budgets, and acquisition processes, naturally leading defense companies to organize themselves around these same domain-specific structures. Three decades later, Department of Defense’s small business strategy claims to lower barriers to entry. In practice, it’s reinforcing a new class of giants. Palantir now drive the narrative championing the value of defense primes while posting record stock gains. It underscores the irony that yesterday’s industrial base diversification solution has become today’s new defense establishment, following the same consolidation playbook that created the primes they claim to challenge. Anduril acquired Dive Technologies, Copious Imaging, and Blue Force Technologies. Shield AI purchased Martin UAV and Heron Systems. These acquisitions are much smaller than the big maneuvers that shored up market segments in the 1990s, like Lockheed acquiring Martin Marietta, Northrop merging with Grumman, or Boeing with McDonnell-Douglas. The purpose of capturing a new market segment is the same. It is mainly the scale and timeframe for return that are different. The military’s doctrinal shift toward concepts like joint all-domain command and control recognizes that future conflicts will be won by forces that can operate across domains with speed and coherence. As warfare becomes more integrated across domains, defense companies are consolidating to mirror this integration. The result is not greater diversity and resilience in the industrial base but greater concentration, a trend that directly parallels the post-Cold War consolidation. Whether will be the resulting industrial base sufficiently diverse, resilient, and innovative to meet the challenges ahead? Should be we skeptical? The fundamental motivation for those participating in the defense industry remains the strengthening of the warfighter. Addressing complex, multi-domain challenges demand integrated solutions that smaller, fragmented organizations struggle to provide. The consolidation we observe is less about eliminating competition and more about creating entities capable of delivering comprehensive capabilities that meet increasingly sophisticated military requirements. This consolidation results in vendor lock, where only one integrated entity possesses the capability to address complex requirements. This dependency creates significant downstream challenges for the government. The absence of competitive alternatives severely undermines the government’s negotiating position, making it extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible, to secure fair and reasonable deals. The prime contractor wields disproportionate leverage, dictating terms, timelines, and costs with minimal accountability. The government becomes perpetually captive to the prime’s demands. The imbalanced power dynamic ultimately compromises both cost-effectiveness and innovation in defense procurement, reinforcing the very inefficiencies. Today’s complex battlespace seems to necessitate the quick injection of cash to maneuver from prototype to production. The Department of Defense’s growing emphasis on Other Transaction Authorities could fundamentally reshape the landscape for small businesses. Recent executive orders establish “a first preference for commercial solutions” in defense acquisition, creating streamlined pathways that enable non-traditional contractors to bypass the bureaucratic hurdles that previously secured the incumbents’ advantage. Evidence of this success is clear: 68 percent of Other Transaction Authorities contracts through the Defense Innovation Unit have gone to small businesses, directly challenging the oligopoly that has long characterized defense procurement. The Commercial Solutions Opening process developed for Other Transaction Authorities enables the Department of Defense to establish “fast, flexible, collaborative” contracts with innovative companies outside the traditional defense sector, directing procurement officials to prioritize commercial solutions while restructuring performance evaluations to reward employees who implement these approaches. The defense secretary’s paradigm shift in defense procurement could revolutionize the defense industrial base by attracting commercial technology companies that traditionally avoid working with the Defense Department. His directive creates an unprecedented opportunity to harness the $43 billion in private capital currently being invested in dual-use technology companies. “After a successful prototype, the relationship can continue and grow,” allowing small companies to build credentials through initial contracts and compete for larger opportunities, establishing a clear path from initial engagement to sustained defense partnerships. The results speak for themselves: Since 2016, Defense Innovation Unit has awarded over 500 Other Transaction Agreements, with 88 percent going to non-traditional contractors and 68 percent to small businesses. Their transition rate from prototype to production has improved from 35 percent to approximately 50 percent in recent years. To date, the Defense Innovation Unit has delivered more than 80 prototypes, with 52 successfully transitioning to the warfighter. These innovations have attracted over $30 billion in private investment and include technologies rapidly deployed to meet urgent national security challenges. (Source: War on the Rocks - U.S.)
by Hooper, director of growth and strategy at Defense Industry Advisors, a former U.S. Army intelligence officer, with past roles at Boeing as a senior strategy analyst and business development representative.

Monday 5 May 2025  In a post on his Truth Social platform on Sunday night, US President Trump has said he will impose a 100% tariff on films made outside the US - produced in Foreign Lands - coming into country, as part of his ongoing trade war. (Source: ITV - United Kingdom)

May 5 2025  Air traffic controllers at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) facility in Philadelphia responsible for directing traffic into the busy New Jersey hub lost radar and radio contact with incoming planes headed to Newark Liberty International Airport for roughly 90 seconds on April 28, prompting a cascading wave of flight disruptions and renewed alarm over aging federal aviation infrastructure and a nationwide shortage of certified controllers. The  FAA is currently short about 3,000 personnel, according to recent estimates. During the outage, controllers were unable to see or speak with aircraft under their supervision. Several controllers were placed on trauma leave following the incident. United Airlines, which uses the airport as a major domestic and international gateway, later announced a reduction of 35 round trips per day in response to the operational strain. (Source: The Mirror US)

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Europe

France
02/05/2025  US Senator Graham has rallied dozens of lawmakers from both parties to support a plan to impose additional sanctions on Moscow as well as tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy. We will accompany this American initiative with a 17th package of sanctions and we would try to coordinate both the substance and the timing of these two packages of sanctions, French FM Barrot told. Barrot met with his US counterpart Rubio and said that he welcomed their frank talks. We had an unfiltered exchange that allowed us to coordinate closely, but also to acknowledge the convergence of our objectives on regional and international crises, since we want to act in concert, he said. (Source: France 24 "with AFP")

Germany
2 May 2025  Bundestag Vice-President Lindholz said that 'as a designated right-wing extremist group the AfD' should not be treated as other parties, especially in parliament. "Because of their large number of seats, AfD members could be eligible to chair parliamentary committees, but Lindholz said that idea was now almost unthinkable'. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

(Friday), 02.05.2025  Chancellor-designate Merz's CDU/CSU has dropped to second place in the latest Forsa poll released Tuesday, with 24% support - a decline of 4.5 percentage points since their February election victory. Their coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), has fallen to 14%, dropping more than 2 percentage points below their previous election result. Speaking at an event in Hannover today, Germany's outgoing Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz welcomed the domestic intelligence agency BfV’s new report on the AfD and its designation of the party as a ’proven extremist group,’ citing the party's ideology and actions as incompatible with Germany's democratic constitutional order. The party's predominant understanding of people based on ethnicity and ancestry is incompatible with the free democratic constitutional order, the BfV emphasized in its statement. The agency noted that the AfD seeks to exclude certain population groups from equal participation in society while subjecting them to discriminatory treatment. For example, the AfD does not consider German citizens with a migration background from Muslim countries, to be equal members of the society, as it defines German people solely in ethnic terms, the agency explained in its assessment. But Scholz cautioned that filing a Constitutional Court ban petition requires careful preparation, noting that previous attempts to ban another ’far-right’ party, the NPD, were rejected by the Constitutional Court because of procedural flaws, issues with evidence gathering, and legal controversies. The AfD 'party, known for its anti-immigration stance, was initially placed under preliminary observation' in 2019. It was later 'classified as a suspected extremist group' in 2021 - a designation that courts in Cologne and Münster upheld despite the party's legal challenge. That designation 'allowed security services to use stronger intelligence tools for surveillance of the party's activities, such as conducting communications surveillance and recruiting informants to monitor activities of party branches' and their links to outlawed extremist groups. 'All AfD party structures and regional branches will now face heightened security monitoring' for potential anti-democratic activities. "The anti-immigrant party has gained five percentage points since the February snap elections, reached 26% in recent opinion polls becoming Germany's leading party for the first time". (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Poland
(3 May 2025)  At a military training ground near the city of Wroclaw, ordinary Poles are lining up, waiting to be handed guns and taught how to shoot. Young and old, men and women, parents and children, they've all come here for one reason: to learn 'how to survive' an armed attack. As well as a turn on the shooting range, the Saturday morning programme, called Train with the Army, also 'teaches civilians hand-to-hand combat, first aid and how to put on a gas mask'. 'We have a military threat from Russia, and we are preparing for this,' says the co-ordinator of the project, Captain Sielicki. He says the programme is oversubscribed, and the Polish government now has plans to expand it so that every adult male in the country receives training. Demand for shelters has soared since Trump took office. The clients are most afraid of Russia. And they're concerned that Nato wouldn't come to defend Poland. But are Poles ready to defend the country if those fears become a reality? A recent poll found that only 10.7% of adults said they would join the army as volunteers in the event of war, and a third said they would flee. Most Polish students in Wroclaw say they wouldn't be ready to defend their country if attacked. The war is very close but feels quite far, says medical student Marcel, 'but if Russia attacked, 'I think I'd run. I would probably be the first one trying to escape the country, says another student, Szymon. I just don't really see anything worth dying for here. Currently, around 216,000 servicemen and women make up the Polish armed forces. The government says they intend to increase that to half a million, including reservists – which would give it the second-largest military in Nato after the United States. ((Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Romania
May 4, 2025  The country heads for two rounds of elections. Romanian elections are best left to the Romanian people. 'President Trump is less concerned with internal politics and more focused on whether a given government serves U.S. interests'. Romania is at the forefront of new American energy ventures in the region. It is likewise a key partner in incorporating American small modular reactor (SMR) technologies into its national energy infrastructure. U.S.-Romanian joint ventures are developing the Neptun Deep natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, ’a project that will make Romania Europe’s largest natural gas producer by 2027'. American companies such as Halliburton, Oceaneering, and Transocean are deeply involved. Transocean is operating one of the world’s largest drilling platforms in the area. ’These firms are well-positioned to support the Ukraine Reconstruction Fund’s efforts to develop Ukraine’s offshore gas reserves in adjacent waters. On the military front, deepening the alliance will assign rotational deployments of U.S. troops to the Mihail Kogălniceanu (MK) base, develop energy, road, and rail connectivity in close coordination with Ukraine’s largest European neighbors Romania and Poland to create resilient transport corridors for Ukrainian natural resource exports and augment existing mine-clearance operations by Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey across the Black Sea with additional measures to protect critical infrastructure. Romania -- as NATO’s easternmost European member - enabled support for American operations ’in Iraq and Afghanistan’. Romania hosts the U.S. Aegis Ashore Ballistic Missile Defense System, which ’shields the country from potential Iranian missile threats’. It invested in U.S. military systems, ’including the F-35, F-16, Patriot missile batteries, HIMARS launchers, Piranha armored vehicles, Abrams tanks, drones’. The MK air base near the Black Sea is helping to protect freedom of navigation, ’defend critical infrastructure, and deter Russian escalation.’ 1,840 American personnel are stationed at the MK airbase, ’to which Romania has committed €2.5 billion to modernize’. Admittedly, Romania’s post-communist democratic journey is ongoing. 'Corruption and governance shortfalls, persist'. American commentators ave long critiqued the democratic shortcomings of partner nations, and Romania has not been spared. ’American policy should focus on working with the elected government, regardless of who heads it,’ to secure U.S. interests in the Black Sea. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Arha, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue; an actor in the biannual U.S.-Japan Free and Open Indo-Pacific Dialogue.

Russia
May 3, 2025  Kyiv can’t guarantee safety of foreign leaders on May 9 in Moscow, Zelenskyy says. Chinese President Xi is among the leaders set to attend the Victory Day Parade in Moscow. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Serbia
(Saturday), May 3, 2025  Serbian President Vučić cut short a visit to the United States yesterday after falling ill. He arrived in Florida on Wednesday and met with former New York Mayor Giuliani and Serbian entrepreneurs from the U.S. Vučić had planned to meet with several senior Republican Party officials and also hoped to see U.S. President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Ukraine
May 1, 2025  Ukraine signed a deal giving the United States control over a share of its future revenue from natural resources. The announcement late Wednesday that the deal had been signed came after months of fraught negotiations. The agreement involves creating a joint investment fund between the countries. It could clear the way for more consequential talks on U.S. military backing for Ukraine and on the terms of a possible truce with Russia. The U.S.-controlled investment fund would receive revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources. The idea of treating ’aid’ as debt was removed in the final deal. There was no mention of a U.S. security guarantee in the text of the nine-page deal that Ukraine’s government published today. Kyiv and Washington will jointly manage the fund, which will be financed with revenues from new projects in critical minerals, oil and gas - not from projects that are already operating. The agreement does say that future military aid, including weapons and training, will be treated as a U.S. contribution to the fund -- meaning that Ukraine will need to match future aid with resource wealth. The agreement does not change the management of Ukraine’s state-owned energy companies. All natural resources will still be considered Ukraine’s property. The agreement says that the United States and Ukraine want to ensure that countries that have acted adversely to Ukraine in the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine once peace is reached - in other words, Russia. Ukraine’s parliament still has to ratify the agreement, which will probably happen in the next two weeks. Ukraine controls more than 100 major deposits of critical minerals, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics, along with modest oil and natural gas reserves.   Titanium, used in construction, airplanes, orthopedic implants and as an additive in paint and cosmetics, including sunscreen, among many other things. Titanium mines in central Ukraine account for about 6% of global production, according to Ukrainian media.   Uranium: Ukraine has Europe’s largest reserves.   Oil and natural gas fields dot several regions of Ukraine, and surveys conducted before the war found offshore natural gas reserves.  Lithium, a crucial element in batteries, and other industrial products, including some medications. Ukraine has a third of Europe’s total reserves, although some sites are in war-contested areas.   Rare earths that are used in many high-tech sectors, including green energy, electronics and aerospace - Ukraine has substantial reserves that are mostly untapped:  Manganese, used for steel smelting.   Zirconium, used in the ceramics industry, nuclear fuel rods and artificial diamonds.   Graphite, used in steel manufacturing and electric motors. Ukraine is one of the world’s leading producers.   What happens next?  Zelenskyy is seeking continued American support. (Source: Miami Herald / The New York Times = U.S. „Dpa contributed”)

United Kingdom
May 02, 2025  Prime Minister Starmer will be at the centre of three major defence summits over the next seven weeks, starting with the Joint Expeditionary Force leaders gathering in Oslo next week. This will be followed by the UK-EU meeting in London on 19 May, when it is expected that Britain and Europe will seal a new defence and security pact, and the Nato summit in the Netherlands from 24 to 26 June. Operational military planning inside the British and French-led ’coalition of the willing’ is going ahead in four areas – referred to as safe skies, safe seas, land action (or ’reassurance force’), and regeneration of Ukraine’s armed forces through training. The last of these is seen as the most important to prevent a fresh Russian invasion in the future. An UK land ’reassurance force’ remained a viable option alongside protection of Ukraine’s skies and seas and training the country’s troops. The US President now had a greater interest in protecting Ukraine. Trump approved $50m in military aid to Kyiv shortly before the minerals deal was struck. There is no explicit US security guarantee as part of the minerals deal. Defence insiders have told that France had been happy to send a reassurance force to Ukraine without a US backstop, but the UK had insisted that such a security guarantee must be in place. Experts have warned there may still be problems with Russia accepting a multinational peacekeeping force and that there are risks associated with providing air cover for Ukraine. As soon as you introduce air cover, especially over Ukraine, then the chances of miscalculation or escalation, an air defence unit accidentally downing a plane, that increases quite dramatically, Arnold, senior fellow at defence think tank Rusi, said. (Source: The i Paper – United Kingdom)

Asia

China
May 01, 2025  Workers throughout China are flooding the streets in revolt as U.S. President Trump’s tariffs slam the fragile Chinese export economy. Furious workers are demanding backpay and protesting mass layoffs. Wave of unrest follows a brutal plunge in China’s export orders, now at their lowest since the COVID lockdowns. Outside a LED light manufacturing plant near Shanghai, thousands of unpaid workers shouted furiously at company managers over wages that haven’t been paid since January. In central China’s Dao County, a similar scene unfolded outside a sporting goods store after the company abruptly shut down last week without paying employees. Huang Deming, a garment exporter in southern China, has already sidelined 30% of his workforce after three major U.S. clients walked away. Textile manager Qian said the internal market is so bleak that Chinese factories are locked in suicidal price wars just to stay afloat. In the northeast city of Tongliao, ’construction workers climbed onto rooftops and threatened to jump if their wages were not paid’. Goldman Sachs estimates up to 16 million Chinese jobs could vanish as Trump’s tariffs bite deeper. Trump said the tariffs placed on China are having their intended effect. They were making from us a trillion dollars a year. They were ripping us off like nobody’s ever ripped us off, he stated. “They’re not doing that anymore.” (Source: Daily Caller - U.S.)

Iran
2 May 2025  Is the so-called “uranium enrichment” issue a diversion? Judging by comments and leaks from the Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi and President Trump’s American envoy Witkoff - although problems remain - things are going smoothly. Trump himself keeps saying that he expects “a good agreement” without spelling out what that means. Tehran pundits muse about an historic turnaround that would see the US investing over a trillion dollars in Iran while the regime is given the green light to continue merrily enriching the uranium it does not need. Iranian President Pezeshkian goes further by talking about “rebuilding the whole region in peace and with prosperity for all.” The fact, however, is that so far nothing has happened. The two sides have not fielded their full teams and seem unable to establish a clear agenda for talks. Nor are they in agreement about how long the talks should last. Trump says he had given the “Supreme Guide” in Tehran two months to make a deal or else, a timespan to coincide with the president’s 1OO first days which has already come and gone. Te global commentariat seems persuaded that the Araqchi-Witkoff tandem are on course to do what their predecessors in almost half a century of talks Iran and the “Great Satan” failed to do. The biggest sign for such optimism is Supreme Leader Khamenei’s open intervention to endorse the talks and silence its critics. He has even re-written parts of religious history to claim that making “temporary peace” with a foe is not only permissible but actually commendable. Much of the current “feel-good” messages transmitted from Tehran and Washington suggest positive imagination as therapy - thinking that things are going the way you want is half way to having that actually happen. Trump wants Iran to dismantle its nuclear program after which the US would lift the sanctions. We are faced with a typical situation in which one side refuses to act until the other side has acted first. Ie: ’I will do what you want after you have done what I want. But if I get what I want why should I give what you want when I always maintained that you had no right to ask me to do what you want’. For decades, Tehran has said it has no plan for developing a nuclear weapon and has no intention of doing so in the future. The US under President Obama briefly accepted that and did all he could to get Iran off the hook. President Trump didn’t buy that bundle and scrapped the Obama “nuke deal”. This is why opponents in Tehran of talks with the US are talking about “guarantees” that if Iran agrees terms with the US, the “Great Satan” should guarantee that another administration in Washington would not scrap the deal. In the past two weeks, a number if retired Iranian diplomats have penned op-eds or written columns to demand “cast iron guarantees”. There is, of course, one non-judicial way to make sure a deal sticks: If Iran expects to be treated differently it should become different. Remove the root causes of enmity. For example, let’s start by releasing the US hostages and make sure that no further hostages are taken during what remains of Trump’s term. Next, give up the temptation to revive Hamas, Hezbollah and half a dozen Iraqi groups through sneaky schemes while smuggling arms to what is left of the Houthis. Also, end burning of flags, attacks on embassies and calls for this or that nation to be “wiped off the map”. And if you don’t mean to attack targets as far as Europe, stop developing long-range missiles. Then join the rest of the world in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) accords against money laundering and funding terrorism. Iran is part of a black-listed trio that includes North Korea and Myanmar. (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat - headquartered in London, United Kingdom, owned by a member of the Saudi royal family).
by Taheri

Syria
May 2, 2025  Syria’s Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hijri has condemned an 'unjustifiable genocidal campaign' against his community after sectarian clashes killed 102 people. He called in a statement yesterday for immediate intervention by ’international forces to maintain peace and prevent the continuation of these crimes’. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory monitor said the 102 death toll included 30 government loyalists, 21 Druze fighters and 10 civilians. In the southern Druze heartland province of Sweida, it said 40 Druze gunmen were killed, 35 in an 'ambush' on the Sweida-Damascus road on Wednesday. The monitor told the fighters were killed by forces affiliated with the ministries of interior and defence and gunmen associated with them. Israel carried out strikes near Damascus on Wednesday and has also sent troops into the demilitarised buffer zone that used to separate Israeli and Syrian forces on the Golan Heights. Defence Minister Katz was saying his country could respond 'with significant force'. He threatened intervention if Syrian authorities failed to protect the Druze minority. Israel sees the new forces in Syria as jihadists. The Syrian government announced it was deploying forces in Sahnaya, area near Damascus, to ensure security, and accused outlaw groups of instigating the clashes. Hijri said he no longer trusts ’an entity pretending to be a government… because the government does not kill its people through its extremist militias… and then claim they were unruly elements after the massacres’. Israel’s military said today it launched air strikes. ’Fighter jets struck adjacent to the area of the palace’ in the capital Damascus, a military statement said. (Source: Macau Business – China / AFP – France)

North America

United States
May 3, 2025  As it stands, the deal recently signed between the Trump and Zelensky administrations is a bad deal for America. Yet again, the Ukrainians are trying to pull the Americans into a deepening - and widening - commitment to their defense. It is not in America’s interests to go along. For the United States the deal amounts to an extended commitment to Kyiv’s defense — at a time when the United States is already overextended all around the world. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)

2 May 2025  The CIA has launched a Chinese-language social media campaign calling on government officials in China to switch sides and leak secrets to the United States. The two videos released on yesterday depict fictional scenes involving Chinese officials who approach the top intelligence agency after becoming disillusioned with the ruling Communist Party of China. The videos, which were released on platforms including Facebook, Telegram, Instagram and X, contain instructions on ’safely’ and ’securely’ contacting the CIA, including by using the dark web browser Tor. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

May 3, 2025  Radio Free Asia said today it will lay off almost all of its staff and close production in several languages, including a rare Uyghur service - as the world’s only editorially independent news service in the language - after President Trump cut off funding. It will terminate 280 staff members in Washington, accounting for more than 90 percent of its US-based workforce, as well as 20 positions overseas. Radio Free Asia will also terminate services in Tibetan, Burmese and English. It will maintain production in Mandarin, Cantonese, Khmer and Vietnamese. The Trump administration in mid-March said it was ending financing for US government-funded broadcasters, including Voice of America. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty — created to reach inside the Soviet bloc during the Cold War — remains operational, ’with the Czech government stepping in to keep it afloat’. (Source: Macau Business - China / AFP - France)

May 2, 2025  President Trump yesterday signed an executive order which instructs the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and other federal agencies to cease Federal funding for NPR and PBS and further requires that that they work to root out indirect sources of public financing for the news organizations. The White House said the outlets receive millions from taxpayers to spread radical, woke propaganda disguised as ‘news.’ The broadcasters get roughly half a billion dollars in public money through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Republicans have long complained about them. Just two weeks ago, the White House said it would be asking Congress to rescind funding for the CPB as part of a $9.1 billion package of cuts. (Source: The Associated Press - U.S.)

May 1, 2025  President Trump held a ceremony at the White House Rose Garden today, where he signed an order establishing a new commission aimed at protecting religious liberty in America. The president paid homage to the sacred Judeo-Christian values that formed a solid foundation for America’s founding, praising the importance of prayer in America and vowing to protect religious liberty while in the White House. Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick (R) will serve as the chairman of the Religious Liberty Commission. (Source: Right Side Broadcasting Network (RSBN) - U.S.)

May 1, 2025  The US and Ukraine entered into an agreement yesterday, launching a first-of-its-kind partnership for the reconstruction and long-term economic success of Ukraine. "This partnership between the United States and Ukraine establishes a fund that will receive 50% of royalties, license fees, and other similar payments from natural resource projects in Ukraine. That money will be invested in new projects in Ukraine, which will generate long term returns for both the American and Ukrainian peoples. As new projects are identified, resources in the fund can be quickly allocated towards economic growth, job creation, and other key Ukrainian development priorities. Indirect benefits will include a stronger private sector and more robust, lasting infrastructure for Ukraine’s long-term success. The partnership will be controlled by a company with equal representation of three Ukrainian and three American board members, who will work together through a collaborative process to make decisions for allocation of fund resources, such as investment and distributions. The partnership will also bring the highest levels of transparency and accountability to ensure that the people of Ukraine and the United States are able to enjoy the benefits of Ukraine’s reconstruction. Natural resource projects will include minerals, hydrocarbons, and related infrastructure development. 'If the United States decides to acquire these resources for ourselves, we will given first choice to either acquire them or designate the purchaser of our choice. Economic security is national security, and this important safeguard prevents critical resources from falling into the wrong hands. Importantly, this partnership sends a strong message to Russia – the United States has skin in the game and is committed to Ukraine’s long-term success. No state, company, or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine, including participation in projects supported by fund resources. (Source: WhiteHouse.gov/wire/ - U.S.)

1 May 2025 21:21  Trump replaced White House national security adviser Waltz with Rubio as interim. Waltz, a 51-year-old former Republican lawmaker from Florida, faced criticism inside the White House when he was caught up in a March scandal involving a Signal chat among top Trump national security aides. The national security adviser is a powerful role that does not require Senate confirmation. Trump said he would be nominating Waltz to be the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Waltz's deputy, Wong, an Asia expert who was a State Department official focused on North Korea during Trump's first term, is also leaving his post. (Source: Sunday World – Ireland)

01.05.2025  US President Trump called on Truth Social for an immediate end to all purchases of Iranian oil and petrochemical products today, and warned that violators would face sweeping secondary sanctions. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Space

2 May 2025 / Thursday, 24 April 2025  Kosmos 482 Descent Craft (1972-023E, cat. nr. 6073) reentry forecasts: The current nominal forecast is reentry on 11 May 2025, 03:41 UTC ± 2.2 days. The lander module from a 1972 failed Soviet Venera mission is in a semi-globular Titanium protective shell, that was designed to survive passage through the Venus atmosphere. It is possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth atmosphere intact, and impact intact with a mass of just under 500 kg, 1-meter size, impact speed (after atmospheric deceleration) of about  65-70 meter per second (~242 km/h). On May 2, the object was in a 332 x 150 km orbit, with apogee coming down by 12 km/day and perigee by 1 km/day (and these values increasing each day). The reentry is an uncontrolled reentry. At the moment, we cannot say with any degree of certainty when and where it exactly will reenter. The reentry can occur anywhere between latitude 52 N and 52 S, and from our current modelling (see below) the reentry should happen near May 10th, 2025 (but this is dependent on a.o. how solar activity develops in the coming two weeks) /Source: SatTrackCam Leiden (b)log - The Netherlands/

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Europe

Luxembourg
30 April 2025 'Luxembourg can rearm' within current budget cap, Finance Minister Roth believes. (Source: Luxembourg Times)

Russia
April 30, 2025  Talk about negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war is finally in vogue, as the battlefield continues to tally losses. But diplomacy has casualties, too. A Russian Orthodox leader's diplomacy with Rome became a casualty of Ukraine war. The story of the Rev. Alfeyev captures how a once robust effort to bring Russian Orthodox Christianity and the Catholic Church together has foundered. Metropolitan Alfeyev, once chairman of the Russian Orthodox Church’s powerful department for external church relations, was effectively Patriarch Kirill’s foreign minister. Between 2009 and 2022, it was Hilarion’s job, among other unique responsibilities, to manage reconciliation with the Catholic Church. Under his guidance, the two Christian institutional giants genuinely deepened bonds, and Hilarion became personally close to both Pope Benedict XVI and Pope Francis. With the start of the war, Hilarion lost his job. Staff at the Vatican’s Dicastery for Promoting Christian Unity mourn Hilarion’s absence. Positive institutional collaboration between the two faiths has shrunk drastically since the war began. Earlier this year, Hilarion in Hungary recalled the church and state breakthroughs that began the year 2009 for Russia and the Vatican. In January (2009), Kirill’s election as patriarch, succeeding Alexy II, known to be suspicious of the Catholic Church, was read as a positive augur for greater cooperation between Western and Eastern Christendom. Having served as chairman of external church relations for 20 years, he was already friendly with Vatican actors. Hilarion, age 42, bishop of Vienna and Austria, was appointed to replace Kirill in his foreign minister role. By December (2009), the Holy See and Russia agreed to establish full diplomatic relations. Evidence of the new spirit was displayed in May 2010 when Kirill sponsored a concert in Vatican City, prepared by Hilarion, to honor Benedict’s birthday and fifth anniversary as pope. “I wholeheartedly thank Metropolitan Hilarion, for … his constant commitment to ecumenism,” Benedict said at the time. “I congratulate him on his artistic genius, which we have just had the opportunity to appreciate.” They became very good friends because they discovered a common passion for theology, first, and second, a common passion for music. Hilarion was so inspired by Benedict’s “Jesus of Nazareth” trilogy that he wrote his own six-volume “Jesus Christ: His Life and Teaching,” which the pope emeritus called “a work of great importance.” Hilarion’s first meeting with Francis occurred the day after his enthronement, a sign of how important the Vatican considered its relations with the Russian Orthodox Church. He was thinking: Here’s a cardinal who was always in Argentina, never exposed to Orthodox-Catholic relations. „Probably, I’ll have to explain some things to him from scratch,” Hilarion recalled. “But that was not the case at all. He knew so much. He knew everything.” Hilarion went on to lay the groundwork for the historic February 2016 meeting between Francis and Kirill in Havana - the first ever between leaders of these two faiths. The Havana meeting, Hilarion said, “was not just a meeting of two heads of churches, it was also a meeting of two people, each with his own charisma, his own character, his own smile. It was clear that they liked each other, that they felt quite comfortable with each other.” Hilarion soon brokered the temporary transfer to Russia of relics from St. Nicholas, patron saint of Russia and Greece, that had been kept in the Pontifical Basilica of Saint Nicholas, in Bari, Italy, since 1087. Part of the saint’s rib was sent. Despite escalating frictions in Ukraine from 2014 on, the Catholic-Russian Orthodox bond remained strong, and in December 2021, Hilarion visited Francis to discuss a second meeting between the pope and patriarch. Hilarion brought a special gift: the pope’s book “Prayer, the Breath of New Life,” in Russian, with a preface by Kirill. With the outbreak of war in February 2022 came rupture. „Hilarion’s public statements centered on the human cost of conflict, but his statements contrasted with Patriarch Kirill’s, which were more deferential to political decision-makers”. In an Austrian TV documentary released in May of that year, Hilarion emphasized that Russian Orthodox faithful live in Ukraine as well as Russia. He warned the two sides to communicate, saying that otherwise “the conflict will not only deepen, but will be transformed into a global conflict, because the world became a powder keg.' On June 7, the ROC’s Holy Synod abruptly removed Hilarion from his high-level post and transferred him to Budapest to lead a small diocese of approximately 3,000 believers. Hilarion maintained contact with his global network, traveling on a Hungarian passport. In April 2023, he met Francis in Hungary. Hilarion explained: “No political issues were discussed. The meeting was personal, between two old friends.” Francis told the media, “Hilarion is someone I respect very much, and we have always had a good relationship. And he was kind enough to come and see me, then he came to the Mass, and I saw him here at the airport as well.” Last year, a 21-year-old Russian-Japanese Orthodox subdeacon, working in the Budapest diocese, Suzuki, left Hungary abruptly after complaining of sickness. At the time, the subdeacon’s illness didn’t appear sinister. But shortly after he left, his Russian “mother” - a guesthouse manager in Okinawa, Japan (location of the largest U.S. air base in East Asia) - contacted the bishop’s office seeking almost 400,000 euro, allegedly for his treatment. Meanwhile, a church safe was discovered empty, missing money and valuables. Hungarian police reported that they had found Suzuki’s fingerprints and DNA. Months after charges were filed, a Western, anti-Putin media outlet began publishing Suzuki’s accusations against Hilarion, including sexual harassment, supposedly backed by short audio and video clips - determined by Russian experts to be fabricated. Although the priests of Budapest diocese rallied around Hilarion, extolling his virtue, last December he was sidelined again: assigned to serve as a priest in a remote, albeit beautiful, Czech resort, forcing his retirement as bishop. Hilarion told RIA Novosti recently: “The past year was difficult for me. Enormous efforts were made to deprive me of the opportunity to serve the Church. Slander, blackmail, threats, and falsified evidence were used. But the Church protected me. I can continue to serve, preach, perform sacred sacraments, and stand before the throne of God. For this, I am grateful.” Hilarion periodically returns to Moscow. On Feb. 1, he concelebrated the Divine Liturgy with Kirill to mark the 17th anniversary of the patriarch’s enthronement. He maintained contact with Francis until the pope’s final days. /Source: Religion News Service (RNS) - U.S./
By Gaetan, a senior correspondent for the National Catholic Register, the author of “God’s Diplomats: Pope Francis, Vatican Diplomacy, and America’s Armageddon” and a contributor to Foreign Affairs magazine. 

Africa

Burkina Faso
28 April 2025  Burkina Faso has granted an industrial mining licence to Russian miner Nordgold for a gold project, the military-led West African government said. Jilbey Burkina will retain an 85% stake in the project, while the Burkinabe government will hold the remaining 15% without financial contribution. Nordgold already operates the Bissa and Bouly mines. Burkina Faso, which has been fighting Islamist militants since 2015, is a major gold producer. According to non-governmental organisation Swissaid, which analyses mining, the country produced over 57 tons in 2023. Mining companies operating there include Canada's IAMGOLD and Endeavour Mining, and Australia's West African Resources Ltd. (Source: TimesLive - South Africa / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Ghana
April 30, 2025  Ghana emerges as global leader in digital currency and blockchain innovation. Ghana’s experience may offer important lessons for emerging economies seeking to balance technological innovation with robust regulation and economic stability. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Asia

India
April 30, 2025  Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends carrying out military action against Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours on the pretext of concocted and baseless allegations of involvement in the Pahalgam incident, Pakistan's Information Minister Tarar said at a midnight news conference. The remarks came hours after Indian media reported that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had met with senior government ministers and military commanders behind closed doors on yesterday evening to discuss the response to the attack and had given the country's armed forces complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets and timing of response to the terror attack. Modi was meeting again with his cabinet tosday. Kashmir is claimed in full by both India and Pakistan, but each nation has controlled its own portion of the mountainous region for decades. The two nations have fought three wars over the region, which is now divided by a de-facto border called the Line of Control (LoC). Indian and Pakistani military forces in the region have exchanged gunfire across the LoC repeatedly over the last six days. (Source: CBS - U.S.)

Syria
April 29, 2025  Clashes broke out in the southern Damascus suburb of Jaramana early today between local gunmen belonging to the minority Druze sect and pro-government fighters, leaving at least 10 people dead. The fighting began after an audio clip circulated on social media of a man criticizing Islam’s Prophet Muhammad. The audio which angered many Sunni Muslims was attributed to a Druze cleric. „I did not say that, and whoever made it is an evil man who wants to incite strife between components of the Syrian people,” cleric Kiwan said. The Interior Ministry said it was investigating the audio clip, adding that its initial probe showed the cleric was not responsible. Syrian Druze gunmen have clashed in recent weeks with government security forces in Jaramana. On March 1, Israel’s Defense Ministry said the military was instructed to prepare to defend Jaramana, asserting that the minority it has vowed to protect was under attack by Syrian forces. The Druze religious sect is a minority group that began as a 10th-century offshoot of Ismailism, a branch of Shiite Islam. Over half of the roughly 1 million Druze worldwide live in Syria. Most of the other Druze live in Lebanon and Israel, including in the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast War and annexed in 1981. (Source: The Washington Times / Associated Press = U.S.)

Yemen
Monday, April 28, 2025  The U.S. has struck more than 800 targets over the past six weeks as part of the Trump administration’s military campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Pentagon said late yesterday. CENTCOM earlier this month struck Yemen’s Ras Isa fuel port. (Source: The Washington Times - U.S.)

North America

United States
April 30, 2025  Usually, U.S. free trade agreement negotiations involve significantly more transparency - in anticipation for when they will need to be ratified by Congress. This is not the case for the much more limited, transactional deals that the president appears to be pursuing. The decision-making process is a black box. A typical trade agreement consists of two main elements: the specific commitments that each side makes to the other and the general commitments that apply to both sides. The two sides will exchange what are essentially idealized versions of the agreement, roughly following the following steps: Here is my initial offer: all the things that I’m happy to give you. This is what my ideal outcome would be if you never asked me for anything else; Here is my initial demand: all the things that I would, in an ideal world, love for you to give me; Here is my initial draft of the text: how the agreement would look if I were solely in charge of writing all the paragraphs that I care about.The negotiators then take all of these factors and put them side by side before trying to create a single, consolidated version of a draft final agreement, in which any language that is proposed but not yet agreed is surrounded by square brackets. From here, talks usually fragment into a range of parallel conversations that are grouped both thematically and by political weight. Ultimately, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This creates a confusing dynamic in how secretly conducted negotiations are communicated. It is semantically correct to say that negotiations are making progress when the technical work is moving ahead nicely but the big issues are hopelessly stalled. It could also be (very narrowly, dubiously, and misleadingly) semantically correct to describe the smaller compromises reached at the technical level as deals made. Yet neither term is necessarily informative. In a trade negotiation, especially an ad hoc and highly politicized one such as those currently being conducted by the Trump administration, the outstanding question is whether leaders can find a landing zone on the major issues - what is Trump asking countries to give, and are they willing to give it in exchange for what he’s offering? At the moment, much of the frustration from U.S. trading partners seeking to negotiate is the absence of a specific request from Washington that they can treat as definitive. Negotiators are being asked to effectively bid against themselves, tabling offers based on their best guess of what the United States might want from them and what it might consider sufficient. If that changes, and if the United States is realistic in what it seeks, then a flurry of so-called deals could come. No country wants to be left out of the U.S. market, especially if its competitors manage to find a way in - but at the same time, countries are very much aware that many of Trump’s tariffs have proved to be as fleeting as Washington’s commitment to past agreements. That means that there’s appetite for a deal that puts these tariffs in the rearview mirror - but not at any price. Until we start seeing indications of actual progress being made on major issues - and indeed, until we start seeing signed texts - grand pronouncements of progress are probably meaningless. (Source: Foreign Policy - U.S.)
by Grozoubinski, a senior advisor with Aurora Macro Strategies and the author of the 2024 book Why Politicians Lie About Trade.

Tuesday, April 29, 2025  The polls are wrong (again) on Trump. The ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted by Ipsos to mark Trump’s 100th day in office, was one of a handful that have shown Trump’s approval rating dipping below 40 percent for the first time. The pollsters who are showing the worst numbers for Trump are the ones who got the election most wrong: In their final poll of the 2024 cycle, they found a three-point lead for Harris. Ipsos’s other poll for Reuters had a two-point advantage for Harris nationally. Trump ended up winning the popular vote by one and a half points. CNN, whose polling is conducted by SSRS, puts Trump on a paltry 41 percent approval rating this week. But at the election they had Harris ahead in the state of North Carolina, six points ahead in Wisconsin and five points ahead in Michigan. The New York Times/Siena College poll, often more respected, have Trump on 42 percent approval. In the swing states just six months ago they had Harris leading by three points in Nevada, two points in North Carolina, two points in Wisconsin, and one point in Georgia. In fact, he won every swing state. You would think the editors of these esteemed media outlets would have thought twice about re-hiring their pollsters after November. But the mainstream media continues to reward pollsters who have singularly failed at predicting elections. (Source: The Spectator – United Kingdom)

Globalization

April 29, 2025  Global military spending hit $2.7 trillion last year, according to the latest data by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The countries to see the biggest change in spending between 2023 and 2024 were Guyana (+78%), Myanmar (+66%), Israel (+65%), Lebanon (58%) and Zimbabwe (52%). Russia boosted its military spending by 38%, Romania (+43%), the Netherlands (+35%), Sweden (+34%), Czechia (+32%), Poland (+31%) and Germany (+28%). In Latin America, Mexico spent 39% more on its military budget in 2024. Countries in the Americas accounted for 40% of global military spending in 2024, followed by countries in Europe (26%), Asia and Oceania (23%), the Middle East (9%) and Africa (1.9%). (bne IntelliNews – Germany)

April 28, 2025  According to data published today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 'more than 100 countries increased their military spending in 2024, including all European countries' except Malta. $997 billion was spent by the United States. Washington increased defense spending by 5.7 percent last year. China is the world’s second-largest military spender, allocating $314 billion, which accounts for 50 percent of all defense expenditure in Asia and Oceania. '$454 billion was spent by NATO’s European allies'. 'Germany increased its military spending by 28 percent last year, reaching $88.5 billion'. 'Poland's military spending rose by 31 percent to $38 billion', representing 4.2 percent of the country's GDP. Russia increased military spending by 38 percent, reaching $149 billion, making Moscow the world's third-largest military spender at 7.1 percent of its GDP. Ukraine's military spending grew by 2.9 percent compared to 2023. The $64.7 billion spent on its military represents 34 percent of the country's GDP, making it the largest military burden borne by any country. Saudi Arabia had a $80.3 billion defense budget. Israel increased its defense spending by 65 percent to $46.5 billion. Iran’s spending fell by 10 percent to $7.9 billion due to sanctions. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
See also: 28 April 2025  'Unprecedented rise in global military expenditure' /Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) - Sweden/

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Europe

Hungary
April 25, 2025 Hungary’s commercial property market poised for recovery, National Bank says. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Estonia
26.04.2025  Estonia will 'significantly increase its defense spending to 5.4% of GDP' over the next four years, including the creation of a deep intelligence battalion, known as an ISTAR unit and the procurement of more ammunition and advanced weaponry - long-range systems capable of countering ballistic missiles, a robust drone force and US-made HIMARS rocket systems, 'enhancing its long-range strike potential', Merilo, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Greece
26.04.2025  Greece plans to build a 150,000-strong active reservist force by 2030. The initiative, part of the government’s Agenda 2030 strategy for the armed forces, was presented by Defense Minister Dendias at the Hellenic Military Academy in Athens. The effort includes modernized retraining programs that will incorporate drones, simulators, and digital platforms. The training methods will be modeled on best practices from Israel and Finland, aiming to enhance combat readiness and ensure a more effective national defense posture. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Italy
Apr 27 2025  Last year, whistleblower Grusch told a Congressional hearing that the US possesses fully intact and pieces of "craft" of "non-human origin". And the former Air Force intelligence officer claimed to NewsNation that Italy had uncovered one of those UFOs in the 1930s. He claimed that the then-Pope Pius XII had "backchannelled" it to US president Roosevelt who "ended up scooping" up the craft. Bassett, executive director of the Paradigm Research Group said investigation was going to be needed into the claims. But it would prove the US government knew about extraterrestrial life long before the famous Roswell incident in 1947, he said. (Source: The U.S. Sun)

Ukraine
April 25, 2025, Friday  In an April 25 interview with the BBC, Kyiv Mayor Klitschko has acknowledged that Ukraine might have to consider the temporary loss of some territory to Russia as a possible route to achieving peace. Klitschko is the first high-profile Ukrainian official to suggest publicly that temporary territorial concessions might be considered in the interest of peace. The suggestion aligns with reports of a U.S.-backed peace plan that includes formal recognition of Russian control over Crimea and implicit acknowledgment of its occupation of parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

United Kingdom
25.04.2025 British Prime Minister Keir Starmer yesterday insisted that Ukraine must have full control over the terms of any peace agreement with Russia, firmly rejecting US President Trump’s proposals that could see Crimea formally recognized as Russian territory. He emphasized that any such move would breach international law and reward aggression. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also weighed in. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Asia

China
April 26 2025  China has seized disputed reef Sandy Cay, another previously unoccupied land feature - just a sand bank measuring little more than 200 square metres - in the South China Sea. It is just kilometres from the Philippines’ most important military outpost at Thitu Island, raising the risk of a new stand-off between the two rival claimants. The Philippine coastguard has been operating a monitoring base on Thitu since late 2023, but Manila is now upgrading a runway and other infrastructure on the island. (Source: Financial Times - United Kingdom)

India
(25 April 2025)  Kashmir killings. Islamabad retaliates after New Delhi downgraded diplomatic relations over shooting of tourists in disputed region. Police in Jammu and Kashmir said yesterday that two of the three suspects in the Pahalgam massacre were Pakistani nationals. In a 'Wanted' notice published online, the police described the men as 'LeT terrorists', a reference to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, which was responsible for the killing of 175 people in Mumbai in 2008. India has ordered the closing of its only border crossing with Pakistan, the expulsion of military advisers from Pakistan’s diplomatic missions in India, the withdrawal of its own advisers from Pakistan, and a reduction in the number of diplomats in each country to 30 from 55. Its suspension of participation in the Indus Waters Treaty was an unprecedented measure that could be deeply damaging to farming in Pakistan at the start of the sowing season of a country mired in a deep economic crisis. Pakistan has closed its airspace to India’s airlines, said it would suspend a 1972 peace treaty with its larger neighbour, and warned that any diversion of shared river waters would be “considered an act of war'. The Indus Waters Treaty is vital to Pakistan because it guarantees access to the three western rivers of the Indus basin - its main source of water for agriculture, power, and daily life. (Source: Financial Times - United Kingdom)

Iran
(Sunday), April 27, 2025  A massive explosion and fire rocked a port yesterday in southern Iran purportedly linked to a shipment of a chemical ingredient used to make missile propellant, killing 25 people and injuring around 800 others. Social media footage of the explosion on Saturday at Shahid Rajaei saw reddish-hued smoke rising from the fire just before the detonation. That suggests a chemical compound being involved in the blast, like in the Beirut explosion. Shahid Rajaei port in Hormozgan province is about 1,050 kilometers southeast of Iran’s capital, Tehran, on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all oil traded passes. (Source: AP - U.S.)

4/26/2025  The U.S. and Iran approached the nuclear talks today at odds over whether Tehran can continue to enrich uranium. The talks, which lasted more than four hours ended with major disagreements and a pledge to meet again soon in Europe. The discussions included Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and U.S. special envoy Witkoff, who flew to Oman following a yesterday meeting in Moscow with Russian President Putin. As in the first two rounds, there were indirect discussions between the U.S. and Iran that were mediated by the Omanis, as well as direct interaction between the top negotiators. Secretary of State Rubio said ahead of the talks that Iran could have a civilian nuclear program as long as it uses imported nuclear fuel. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, and that it has the right to enrich its own uranium. The current talks also includes other disagreements, such as the Trump’s administration’s demands that an accord cover Iran’s missile program. The Obama administration agreed to let Iran continue enriching its own fuel, which paved the way to a nuclear deal in 2015 aimed at restraining weapons development. That accord initially allowed Tehran to produce uranium enriched to 3.67% for civilian purposes and allowed Iran to eventually achieve enrichment levels well beyond that. President Trump pulled out of Obama’s nuclear deal during his first term. Iran is now producing 60% high-enriched uranium, the only country without nuclear weapons to do so. That material can be swiftly converted into the 90%-grade material needed for a bomb. Iran is producing enough enriched uranium needed for a single nuclear weapon each month and would need only a week or two to turn it into weapons-grade material, U.S. officials say. The U.S. technical team was led by Anton, the head of the State Department’s office of policy planning who served as a spokesman for the National Security Council during Trump’s first administration. He faced veteran Iranian nuclear negotiators Takht-Ravanchi and Gharibabadi. The next round may include an expert from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Araghchi said. The agency, which is planning to send a team to Iran in coming days, has asked Tehran to explain the presence of tunnels around the Natanz nuclear facility, which houses centrifuges used to enrich uranium. On Thursday, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security released satellite images of the site showing a new tunnel as well as a new security perimeter. Trump has given a deadline of two months to conclude a pact and has repeatedly threatened to turn to military force if Iran balks at a deal. As the talks were ongoing in Oman, a blast today ripped through Bandar Abbas, Iran’s biggest commercial port, killing at least five and wounding at least 516. In the past two months, the facility received shipments of a missile propellant ingredient from China, according to U.S. officials and shipping trackers. (Source: MSN / WSJ = U.S.)

Kashmir
26 April 2025  Indian and Pakistani troops have traded gunfire across the highly militarised frontier in Kashmir for a second day as tensions flare between the nuclear-armed rivals. The exchange of fire came after a deadly attack took the lives of 26 people in what India claims was a Pakistan-backed terror attack. Pakistan denies India's charge. The assault near the resort town of Pahalgam in India-controlled Kashmir was claimed by a previously unknown militant group calling itself the Kashmir Resistance. Most of those killed were Indian tourists. Troops detonated explosives in the family homes of at least three suspected militants. Police officials said they detained and questioned at least 1,500 people. (Source: Express - United Kingdom)

Pakistan
Friday 25 April 2025  Defence minister Asif told his country would respond in kind to any attack by New Delhi. It comes amid heightened tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries following a shooting that left 26 tourists dead. /Video/ (Source: Sky News - United Kingdom)

Syria
27.04.2025  German Interior Minister Faeser and Austrian Interior Minister Karner traveled to Damascus today, to discuss the voluntary return of Syrian refugees with Syrian Interior Minister Hattab. Faeser was stating that refugees who have successfully integrated into German society and established new lives should be allowed to stay. Those involved in criminal activity or linked to extremist groups should be swiftly deported. As of the end of March 2025, there are 968,899 Syrian nationals living in Germany. Between 2015 and 2023, 163,170 Syrians obtained German citizenship. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Globalization

April 26, 2025 Everywhere one looks today, the world is on fire. All eyes are currently fixed on the ongoing tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran. On the periphery of that budding conflict, though, are two other important potential hotspots through which a major conflict might erupt. Those are the India-Pakistan rivalry, which is spiraling in the aftermath of a horrific terrorist attack, and the standoff between the United States, the Philippines, and the People’s Republic of China in the South China Sea (SCS). And in both instances, Beijing is meddling at unprecedented levels. Terrorism, water wars, and border clashes are now risking a very real war between nuclear-armed Pakistan and nuclear-armed India - with neighboring China potentially in a position to exploit the instability for their own gain. A bloody jihadist terror attack in an area of Kashmir known as Pahalgam left 26 Indian citizens dead. Indian leaders demanded that neighboring Pakistan, a fountainhead for terrorism on the subcontinent, conduct sweeping counterterrorism investigations to bring to justice the perpetrators - and those within Pakistan who may have supported them. Islamabad responded by arguing that India’s attempts to link the Pahalgam attack with Pakistan are frivolous, devoid of rationality, and defeat logic. The Pakistani government then added: ’Pakistan and its armed forces remain fully capable and prepared to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.’ India replied by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), cutting off Pakistan’s access to the vital water flows of the Indus River - and perhaps laying the groundwork for another war. The Indus Waters Treaty signed on September 16, 1960 after nine years of hard negotiations between recalcitrant enemies in Pakistan and India, has 12 articles and eight annexures. One of the key provisions in the IWT is that India would make available for unrestricted use by Pakistan the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers of the west. Pakistan has an ace card to play: its strong alliance with China, which controls access to multiple rivers flowing into India. China could threaten India with cutting off water access to some of the rivers under Chinese control going into India, such as the Galwan River. A hidden undercurrent of the 2020 border clashes between India and China was over control of water rights along the Tibetan Plateau. To the east of this conflict, in which China may or may not be exerting malign influence, is the Luzon Strait between the Philippines and Taiwan. The Strait of Luzon is a narrow waterway separating the southernmost tip of Taiwan from the northern Philippines. For China’s encirclement strategy of democratic Taiwan to work, Beijing needs control over the Luzon Strait. The United States Marine Corps is deploying its new NMESIS (Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System) anti-ship missile platform to overlook that vitally important strait. The US-made NMESIS platform threatens to choke up the Luzon Strait, at least for a period of time. The idea is to deter China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) from destabilizing the South China Sea - specifically to stop China from threatening their neighbors in the Philippines, as it has been doing for years. As the Marines were installing the NMESIS platform, they encountered a unique sight: the PLAN’s Shandong aircraft carrier task group transiting through the narrow waterways. China’s flotilla passed within the range of NMESIS and took up station just east of the Philippines once they successfully passed through the strait. The Shandong’s transit through the Luzon Strait amounted to a reminder from Chinese President Xi to U.S. President Trump that the Chinese retain the real advantages in the region, not the United States - which is weaker militarily than it has been in decades. The American military power that remains, though mighty, is stretched to its limits, whereas China’s is concentrated in one region. Beyond the NMESIS platform, the Americans have only one aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz - the namesake of its class, and thus also the oldest - loitering around the Pacific. The bulk of the U.S. Navy’s fleet is mired in the Middle East. The Ukraine war is potentially one misstep away from drawing in the great powers. The Iran crisis threatens to do the same. Now the Indian subcontinent is aflame. These conflicts have all sapped America’s strength, drawing the attention of U.S. troops and U.S. diplomats away from the vital Indo-Pacific theater. By lighting - or pouring fuel on - geopolitical brush fires around the world, the Chinese have guaranteed the Americans will remain off-balance in Asia when the time comes to strike. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
By Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower; Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book: A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine

North America

Canada
April 27, 2025  11 killed as a vehicle plows into a Filipino street festival in Vancouver. (Source: AP - U.S.)

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Asia

Iran
(Thursday), 24 Apr 2025  Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the United States will resume in Oman on Saturday, after talks with Russia and China this week. The US lead technical negotiator, Anton, who was a spokesman for the White House National Security Council during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021, will lead a team of about a dozen US government officials to negotiate. Anton, briefed E3 diplomats in Paris on April 17. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says he is ready to travel to Europe for talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme. Since September, Tehran and France, Germany and the United Kingdom have already held several rounds of discussions over their ties and the nuclear issue. The most recent in March was held at the technical level and looked at the parameters of a future deal to secure a rollback of Iran’s nuclear programme in return for lifting sanctions against it. The European powers have seen their ties with Iran worsen over other issues, including its ballistic missile programme, detention of foreign citizens and support for Russia in its war in Ukraine. The threat of renewed sanctions is intended to pressure Tehran into concessions, making detailed discussions on strategy between the Americans and Europeans vital. Because the US quit the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, it cannot initiate its mechanism for reimposing sanctions, called snapback, at the United Nations Security Council. That makes the E3, the only other participants in the 2015 deal capable of and interested in pursuing snapback. The E3 diplomats are looking to trigger snapback by August as opposed to an earlier June timeframe if no substantial deal can be found by then. That opportunity expires on October 18 when the 2015 accord ends. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

North America

United States
2025-04-24  Senior State Department official Anton heads the US technical delegation in ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran. Anton, who currently serves as Director of Policy Planning at the State Department, has been tasked with leading a technical team comprising around a dozen officials drawn from various US agencies. Most of the team members are described as seasoned professionals, entrusted with shaping the technical details of a potential agreement aimed at imposing strict limitations on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions. Anton is expected to lead the first round of technical talks with the Iranian side over the weekend. This round is to be followed next week by a high-level political meeting in Rome between US Special Envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. Anton previously accompanied Witkoff during the last round of talks, also held in the Italian capital. “He’s the right man for the job. He brings experience and intelligence, and most importantly, will implement President Trump’s vision on this file in a precise and thoughtful manner,” one administration official told. (Source: Shafaq News – Iraq)

24.04.2025  US defense chief Hegseth welcomed NATO Secretary-General Rutte today. Rutte is in Washington, DC to meet Secretary of State Rubio, Hegseth and National Security Advisor Waltz. Hegseth held a honor cordon for Rutte at the Pentagon. ’Europe and Canada are ramping up defence spending and we’re all working to increase production capacity', Rutte wrote on X. The US has been urging its NATO allies 'to raise defense spending to 5% of their respective GDPs'. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Global

April 24, 2025  Who might become the next head of the Catholic Church?    The favourites:     Cardinal Parolin, the secretary of state for the Vatican. He is now considered the main candidate, a strong favourite to be the next Pope but not a certainty. As the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, 70-year-old Cardinal Parolin, from Veneto, is the highest-ranking member of the electing conclave. Rather than adhering to “left” or “right” political leanings, Cardinal Parolin has long been considered a sensible, moderate figure within the Church. Most recently, Cardinal Parolin gave an interview with Italian newspaper L’Eco di Bergamo in which he commented on a number of geopolitical issues. He said: Everyone can contribute to peace, but solutions must never be pursued through unilateral impositions that risk trampling on the rights of entire peoples, otherwise there will never be a just and lasting peace. It is hard to know if he really is the main candidate because the group of cardinals are very difficult to read, a well placed Vatican insider told. They are a very strange bunch and they don’t really know one another. What they see as a good candidate may be very different to what the media say. Parolin is a very safe bet because they all know him. He was nice to everyone and ’never had conflicts with anyone’. He has been working in the Vatican for more than 10 years and knows how it works.    Cardinal Erdő was made a cardinal in 2003 by Pope John Paul II. As a former president of the Council of the Bishops’ Conferences of Europe, Cardinal Erdő is known for being a devout Marian, meaning he devotes his practices to Mary, mother of Jesus. He is the leading candidate on the conservative wing of the Church, and it is thought he could be the main challenger to Cardinal Parolin in the early conclave votes. The 72-year-old Hungarian has famously been a more conservative voice within the Church, having opposed the practice of divorced or remarried Catholics receiving Holy Communion due to his belief in the insolubility of marriage. He has also compared the act of taking in refugees to human trafficking.     Cardinal Tagle has shared his support for gay people. As the seventh Filipino to become a cardinal, Cardinal Tagle would be the first Asian pope. The 67-year-old currently serves as the pro-prefect for the Section of First Evangelisation of the Dicastery for Evangelisation, having been made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI. He is the most liberal candidate among the frontrunners and often dubbed Francis 2 in his similarities to the late Pope. Cardinal Tagle has typically shown more left-leaning politics, similar to those of Pope Francis, and has criticised the Church’s attitude and language towards gay people, unmarried mothers, and divorced or remarried Catholics. The harsh words that were used in the past to refer to gays and divorced and separated people, the unwed mothers [and so on], in the past they were quite severe, he said in 2015. And: Many people who belonged to those groups were branded and that led to their isolation from the wider society. However, some Vatican insiders question whether he is a candidate who is more prominent in media coverage with less real support among cardinals who will ultimately decide.    Cardinal Pizzaballa, the Patriarch of Jerusalem is only 60 and much younger than all the other contenders but has gone from a left field option in the conclave to one of the favourites. It may be by the time the conclave begins that he has become one of the more serious contenders. Essentially, it his role as leader of the Catholics in the Holy Land at a time when Middle East events in Israel and Gaza are at the forefront of world and Church politics. Choosing Pizzaballa would be a significant geopolitical statement by the Church, especially at a time it has been highly critical of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. However, Pizzaballa has not taken sides as others have done. He was one of the first to condemn Hamas for the 7 October attacks on Israel and offered himself in exchange for Israeli children taken as hostages by the Palestinian terrorists. As well as being a heroic figure with a keen ability as a diplomat he is also a leading Biblical scholar. Pope Francis was known to highly respect him and called him almost daily. He will almost certainly get votes in the conclave and if he does not emerge this time because of his relatively young age he will be a contender again in the future.    Strong contenders:    Cardinal Zuppi was made a cardinal by Francis in 2019. The 69-year-old has since been sent on a number of global trips. He went on a peace mission to Ukraine where he met Zelensky, but not Russia’s Putin and he went to the United States to meet the then president Biden. Prior to being a cardinal, Mr Zuppi shared his positive view of the LGBT+ community when he wrote in an essay in Martin’s 2018 book Building a Bridge (Un ponte da Costruire) that it would be useful for encouraging dialogue, as well as reciprocal knowledge and understanding "to adopt a new pastoral approach towards our LGBT brothers and sisters. Considered to be a favourite of Pope Francis, Cardinal Zuppi has been president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy since May 2022.    Cardinal Burke has been described as a voice of traditionalism within the Church. Regarded by critics as an outspoken traditionalist, Cardinal Burke, born in Wisconsin, was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010. He has publicly clashed with Pope Francis’s more liberal philosophies, particularly regarding the latter’s willingness to allow divorced and remarried couples to receive the Eucharist. He has also called the Church’s new language around artificial contraception, civil marriage and gay people objectionable. He previously said that Catholic politicians who support legalised abortion, such as Mr Biden, should not receive the Eucharist.    Cardinal Grech is former conservative. The Maltese Cardinal Grech has emerged as probably the most progressive option for the conclave to consider. The 68-year-old is the the one leading Church figure to attempt to reach out to LGBT+ communities and reconsider doctrine on a complex issue. Speaking to the Synod in October 2014, Grech said that the doctrine of the faith is capable of progressively acquiring a greater depth and that addressing people in complex familial relations, or homosexuals or parents of homosexuals, it is necessary to learn to speak that language which is known to contemporary human beings and who acknowledge it as a way of conveying the truth and the charity of the Gospel. A favourite of Pope Francis’, Grech was appointed to the influential role of Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops.    Cardinal Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille is a name that have gathered traction and apparently some support. While he was not previously described as papabile, he has emerged as a serious contender among moderates since Pope Francis’ death. The 66-year-old French prelate originates from the old French Algeria colony but spent much of his life in Marseille. The cardinal has been described as a rather liberal figure, but one inclined to consensus by the College of Cardinals Report website. It makes him a candidate who could potentially reach out to the different factions. Cardinal Aveline has also regularly been portrayed in the French press as Pope Francis’ favorite prelate, and is said to be the most Bergoglian - in reference to Francis’ surname - of France’s bishops.    Out of Africa:    Cardinal Turkson, the Ghanaian prelate, 76, has emerged as one of the leading papabile in recent months and would be the first African pope since Pope Gelasius I in the fifth century. Cardinal Turkson was a candidate in 2013, but now has more support than when Pope Francis was elected in the last conclave. With Catholicism growing in Africa and declining in European and other Western countries, there is a feeling that its centre of gravity is shifting to the developing world. Cardinal Turkson is politically on the left, and has led for the Church on social justice issues, been a critic of neoliberal capitalism and worked for peace. Theologically he is very conservative, and was a leading voice against the use of condoms despite the Aids pandemic in Africa. He also defended a more hardline view on homosexuality.    Cardinal Sarah of Guinea is another African papabile. The 79-year-old conservative was an ally of the previous pope, Benedict, and served as his president of the Pontifical Council. Cardinal Sarah has been a leading player in the Vatican since 2001, and carries a lot of experience through various roles in the Church’s institutions. Some thought that his best opportunity came in 2013, when Pope Francis emerged as the choice of the cardinals instead. Cardinal Sarah is a traditionalist and a conservative, who has suggested that some of the reforms brought in by the Second Vatican Council to modernise the Church in the 1960s are not obligatory. He is very anti-LGBT+ and has opposed attempts to recognise homosexuality in various African countries. One of his strengths is that he has a deeper understanding and respect for Islam, as a cardinal from a country where the population is divided between the two religions. He has opposed attacks by the West on Muslim countries such as Iraq. He once noted: The Islam in my country is a fraternal, peaceful religion.    Cardinal Besungu, Archbishop of Kinshasa and head of the Church in the Democratic Republic of Congo is completing the African contingent. At 65 he is one of the younger papabile but is a name rising on various lists as a possible successor to Francis. Besunga has played a key role in the spread of Catholicism in Africa and won admirers for standing up to the DRC government who ordered for him to be investigated for sedition. Like the other African cardinals he is a conservative and hit international prominence with his opposition to blessings of same sex unions.    Also in the running:    Cardinal Marx, 71, Archbishop of Munich and Freising. He is a divisive figure who, like his namesake Karl, is a strong critic of capitalism. From many years he was a strong ally of Pope Francis from the liberal wing of the church and has been much more progressive on LGBT+ issues than most. However, he was removed Francis’ council of cardinals in May 2023, falling out of favour having been a key adviser. Added to that in 2021 he offered his resignation for failing to deal with historic abuse in the Church, although this was rejected at the time. Cardinal Marx has not been afraid of getting involved in politics and even criticised Brexit even though he insisted the 2016 vote should be respected. He has experience with the inner workings of the Vatican not least its finances having been on the Council for the Economy when the Holy See had a deficit. He has been a prominent figure at international events including presiding over the funeral of former German football captain and manager Beckenbauer. In many ways he is the Pope most likely to bring the Church into the 21st century but one whose time may have passed.    Cardinal Scola, the former Archbishop of Milan is the leading name of four Italian cardinals who are seen as potential stop gap candidates if the conclave’s factions cannot come to agreement over the leading contenders. At 83 Scola would be the oldest cardinal elected as Pope since Clement X in 1670 and it would be hoped he could provide steady but uncontroversial leadership to give the church breathing space to decide which direction to take in the future. However, last time cardinals took this safe stop gap option they elected the 77-year-old John XXIII in 1958 who turned out to be one of the most radical and consequential popes in history. He launched the Second Vatican Council to modernise the church and changing Catholicism forever.    Cardinal Eijk, the Archbishop of Utrecht, 71, has been one of the biggest conservative critics of Pope Francis’ papacy. A Dutch medical doctor by training he is unusual among the cardinals in having a scientific background but has been a fierce opponent of LGBT+ rights. In 2015 he came to public attention for removing a parish treasurer from their position because they were transgender. He was also highly critical of ecumenical attempts to reach out to other Christian denominations. In 2018 he condemned Pope Francis for failing to completely rule out a German proposal to allow Protestants to take the eucharist.    Cardinal Prevost, 69, Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishop. While many observers think that cardinals will revert to a European Pope after the Francis experiment, if they do go back to the Americas then he will be a name who is discussed. Cardinal Prevost hails from Chicago which is the biggest Archdiocese in North America and famously turns the river green on St Patrick’s day. He was only promoted to his influential role in the Vatican in 2023 and made a cardinal-bishop in February this year. A member of the influential Augustinian order his main appeal may be that he is an expert in canon law. There have been concerns over Francis that the Church moved away from a reliance on canon law and the traditional institutions. This makes Prevost a compromise candidate for Francis inspired reformers and those who want some traditional order restored.    Cardinal Schönborn, 80, Archbishop emeritus of Vienna. He has just retired from his roles and will not get a vote in the conclave because of his age. Nevertheless as a figure who was respected across the different factions Cardinal Schönborn may be a name still in contention. Most of all he won respect for being one of the stronger voices in dealing with the historic sexual abuse in the Church. In May 2010 Schönborn told the Austrian Catholic news agency Kathpress: The days of cover-up are over. For a long while the Church's principle of forgiveness was falsely interpreted and was in favour of those responsible and not the victims. He has though been a strong opponent to Church reform not least in his fight with a dissident priest movement in Austria which was made up of around 10 per cent of its priests and demanded radical changes. This included allowing priests to marry, as well as allowing divorced Catholics and non-Catholic Christians to receive communion. Despite meeting with the group known as Pfarrer Initiative in June 2012 the Austrian prelate publicly reaffirmed the official position of the Vatican on the issues raised by the dissident group and directed that no priest expressing support for the Call to Disobedience be allowed to hold any administrative post in the Austrian Catholic Church.    Cardinal Ouellet, the Canadian cardinal from Quebec, speaks seven languages fluently. At 80, he is now too old to vote in the conclave, although he remains a candidate for the papacy. Cardinal Ouellet’s hopes, though, have been hit by allegations that emerged in August 2022, when a lawsuit involving an unnamed woman was filed against him. Prior to that he had been one of the leading voices for change in the Church in the wake of the sexual abuse scandal involving priests. In 2018, he said: We will need more participation of women in the formation of priests, in teaching, in the discernment of candidates and their emotional balance.    Cardinal Nichols, 79, head of the Catholic Church in England and Wales since 2009. He is just young enough to vote in this conclave because he does not turn 80 until November. Cardinal Nichols is seen as a steady, middle-of-the-road candidate, and could potentially emerge as a compromise figure if there is a standoff between the factions within the conclave. The English cardinal, originally from Crosby in Lancashire, would be the first British pope since Adrian IV in 1154. He has carefully picked his battles on social issues in the UK, steering clear of interventions in the LGBT+ debates, but has launched a strong fight against the assisted dying bill currently being debated in parliament. That said, he has not been named as one of the papabile, and would be a longshot for the throne of St Peter. Nevertheless, non-papabile have been elected Pope on eight occasions, including John XXIII, who initiated the Second Vatican Council, and John Paul II.    Cardinal Radcliffe, 79, a Dominican friar, who is much loved by many Catholics for his spiritual writings. He was a frequent adviser to Pope Francis. He was only made a cardinal in October last year and is a Master Emeritus of Order of Preachers. Like Nichols he is highly unlikely to win any votes in the conclave but cannot be completely ruled out.    Cardinal Roche, 74, is the youngest of the British cardinals. The former bishop of Leeds now heads up a Vatican department called Divine Worship where he has become a controversial figure blamed for the suppression of the traditional Latin mass. Roche is a Vatican reformer who was close to Francis and is more likely to be an influencer in the election than a candidate.    Cardinal Fitzgerald was much respected by Pope Francis for his work on interfaith dialogue especially with Muslims. He is a highly experienced diplomat. However, at 87 he will not have a vote in the conclave and will be considered to be too old to succeed Francis.    The stand-in:    Cardinal Farrell, an Irish born American who announced Pope Francis’ death to the world, currently is effectively standing in as temporary administrative head of the church in his role as Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church. The 77-year-old cannot be completely ruled out as a successor but he is not considered to be a papabile and there are a long list of contenders ahead of him. Added to that his conservative views have not seen him shy away from diplomatic controversy. In 2018 he prevented the then Irish president McAleese, a supporter of women's ordination and same-sex marriage, from speaking at a Vatican conference on Women in the Catholic Church. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

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North America

United States
23/04/2025  President Trump lashed out at Zelenskyy saying that leader is prolonging the 'killing field' after he pushed back on ceding Crimea to Russia as part of a potential peace plan. During talks last week in Paris, US officials presented a proposal that included allowing Russia to keep control of occupied territory as part of a deal. “This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Obama, and is not even a point of discussion,” Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social today. “Nobody is asking Zelensky to recognise Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it 11 years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired?” Mr Trump added that 'inflammatory statements like Zelensky’s' is making “it so difficult to settle this War”. “He has nothing to boast about!” Mr Trump said. “The situation for Ukraine is dire, he can have peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country”. We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, Get it done.” (Source: MSN - U.S. / PA Media - United Kingdom / Associated Press - U.S.)

(Wednesday), April 23, 2025  A London-hosted Ukraine summit was thrown into disarray today after top U.S. representatives pulled out at the eleventh hour and Ukraine pushed back at proposals from Trump's administration to recognize Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Witkoff, a key American player in negotiations with Moscow, withdrew from talks, citing a scheduling conflict. Trump’s peace proposal involves a potential lifting of sanctions and U.S. informal recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea. ’The Ukrainians were heading to London ready to talk about a 30-day interim ceasefire proposal that France and the U.K. appeared willing to support’. U.S. Vice President Vance told reporters in India today that the U.S. had issued a “very explicit proposal” to Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict by freezing it on its existing lines - and threatened to walk away if progress is not forthcoming. Trump's Ukraine envoy, Kellogg, is now headlining the London talks from the U.S. side instead, but it is Witkoff who has been a crucial go-between in talks with Russia over the conflict. The ditching of talks leaves the high-level European delegations traveling to London - from France, Germany, the U.K. and Ukraine - in a bind. The U.K. Foreign Office decided that the meeting of the U.K., U.S., France and Germany with Ukraine would now be conducted by officials instead of Foreign Secretary Lammy hosting. Lammy still hold a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha, who arrived in London today morning alongside Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov and Zelenskyy's top aide Yermak. In London, No.10 Downing Street insisted today lunchtime that the U.S. and U.K. remained on the same page. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

April 23, 2025  U.S. Secretary of State Rubio has declined to participate in Ukraine ceasefire talks scheduled for April 23 in London. Rubio’s decision came shortly after Zelensky said that Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. The stance runs counter to one of U.S. President Trump’s key proposals for a peace deal. Several Western media outlets have reported that the United States is prepared to consider recognizing Crimea as Russian as part of a broader peace agreement. U.S. officials reportedly conveyed this to Ukrainian representatives during talks in Paris on April 17. The American proposal is also said to include Ukraine abandoning its bid to join NATO and transferring control of the area near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to the United States. Axios reported on April 22 that this is Washington’s “final offer.” Trump has said he hopes Russia and Ukraine will “make a deal this week.” Trump has also suggested the United States could exit the talks if no progress is made. (Source: Meduza - based in Latvia / The New York Times - U.S.)

April 23, 2025, Wednesday  The United States has put forward what it refers to as a “final” peace proposal for Ukraine, calling for the recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and an unofficial acceptance of Moscow’s control over nearly all the territories occupied since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. The one-page document, presented to Ukrainian officials in Paris, is said to reflect US President Trump’s last offer, with the White House reportedly prepared to withdraw from peace efforts if no agreement is reached soon. These include the de jure recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, de facto acceptance of Russian control over most of Luhansk Oblast and parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and a formal pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO, although EU accession would remain an option. In return, Russia would agree to halt military operations along the current front lines. Additionally, the proposal offers Russia the lifting of sanctions introduced since 2014 and promises increased economic cooperation with the US, particularly in the energy and industrial sectors. A separate clause in the proposal reportedly grants US oversight over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which would remain formally Ukrainian, with electricity to be distributed to both Ukraine and Russia. The document also references a mineral resources deal between the US and Ukraine, expected to be signed on April 24. The US State Department stated that what was shared in Paris was merely a list of potential options for discussion. The proposed framework requires substantial concessions from Ukraine. European and Ukrainian officials are acknowledging the improbability of Ukraine regaining occupied territories in the short term. Kyiv is currently more interested in pursuing a short-term ceasefire and intends to discuss such a possibility during a high-level meeting in London today. (Source: Novinite - Bulgaria)

Global

April 22, 2025  Which cardinals are seen as contenders to be the next pope?    Cardinal Erdő, 72, the archbishop of Budapest and primate of Hungary was twice elected head of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences, in 2005 and 2011, suggesting he enjoys the esteem of European cardinals who make up the biggest voting bloc of electors. In that capacity, Erdő got to know many African cardinals because the council hosts regular sessions with African bishops’ conferences. Erdő had even more exposure when he helped organize Francis’ 2014 and 2015 Vatican meetings on the family and delivered key speeches, as well as during papal visits to Budapest in 2021 and 2023.    Cardinal Marx, (71), the archbishop of Munich and Freising, was chosen by Francis as a key adviser in 2013. Marx later was named to head the council overseeing Vatican finances during reforms and belt-tightening. The former president of the German bishops’ conference was a strong proponent of the controversial synodal path process of dialogue in the German church that began in 2020 as a response to the clergy sexual abuse scandal there. As a result, he is viewed with skepticism by conservatives who considered the process a threat to church unity, given it involved debating issues such as celibacy, homosexuality and women’s ordination. Marx made headlines in 2021 when he dramatically offered to resign as archbishop to atone for the German church’s dreadful abuse record, but Francis quickly rejected the resignation and told him to stay.    Cardinal Ouellet, 80, of Canada,  led the Vatican’s influential bishops office for over a decade, overseeing the key clearinghouse for potential candidates to head dioceses around the world. Francis kept Ouellet in the job until 2023, even though he was appointed by Pope Benedict XVI, and thus helped select the more doctrinaire bishops preferred by the German pontiff. Considered more of a conservative than Francis, Ouellet still selected pastorally minded bishops to reflect Francis’ belief that bishops should smell like the sheep of their flock. Ouellet defended priestly celibacy for the Latin Rite church and upheld the ban on women’s ordination but called for women to have a greater role in church governance. He has good contacts with the Latin American church, having headed the Vatican’s Pontifical Commission for Latin America for over a decade. Since 2019, his office has taken charge of investigating bishops accused of covering up for predator priests, a job that would have made him no friends among those sanctioned but also could have given him lots of otherwise confidential and possibly compromising information about fellow cardinals.    Cardinal Parolin, 70, of Italy, has been Francis’ secretary of state since 2014 and is considered one of the main contenders to be pope, given his prominence in the Catholic hierarchy. The veteran diplomat oversaw the Holy See’s controversial deal with China over bishop nominations and was involved - but not charged - in the Vatican’s botched investment in a London real estate venture that led to a 2021 trial of another cardinal and nine others. A former ambassador to Venezuela, Parolin knows the Latin American church well. He would be seen as someone who would continue in Francis’ tradition but as a more sober and timid diplomatic insider, returning an Italian to the papacy after three successive outsiders: St. John Paul II (Poland); Benedict (Germany) and Francis (Argentina). But while Parolin has managed the Vatican bureaucracy, he has no real pastoral experience. His ties to the London scandal, in which his office lost tens of millions of dollars to bad deals and shady businessmen, could count against him.    Cardinal Prevost, 69, of United States. The idea of an American pope has long been taboo, given the geopolitical power already wielded by the U.S. But the Chicago-born Prevost could be a first. He has extensive experience in Peru, first as a missionary and then an archbishop, and he is currently prefect of the Vatican’s powerful dicastery for bishops, in charge of vetting nominations for bishops around the world. Francis clearly had an eye on him for years and sent him to run the diocese of Chiclayo, Peru, in 2014. He held that position until 2023, when Francis brought him to Rome for his current role. Prevost is also president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, a job that keeps him in regular contact with the Catholic hierarchy in the part of the world that still counts the most Catholics. In addition to his nationality, Prevost’s comparative youth could count against him if his brother cardinals don’t want to commit to a pope who might reign for another two decades.      Cardinal Sarah, 79, of Guinea, the retired head of the Vatican’s liturgy office, was long considered the best hope for an African pope. Beloved by conservatives, Sarah would signal a return to the doctrinaire and liturgically minded papacies of John Paul II and Benedict. Sarah, who had previously headed the Vatican’s charity office Cor Unum, clashed on several occasions with Francis, none more seriously than when he and Benedict co-authored a book advocating the necessity of continued celibacy for Latin Rite priests. The book came out as Francis was weighing whether to allow married priests in the Amazon to address a priest shortage there. The implication was that Sarah had manipulated Benedict into lending his name and moral authority to a book that had all the appearances of being a counterweight to Francis’ own teaching. Francis dismissed Benedict’s secretary and several months later retired Sarah after he turned 75. Even Sarah’s supporters lamented the episode hurt his papal chances.    Cardinal Schoenborn 80, the archbishop of Vienna, Austria, was a student of Benedict’s, and thus on paper seems to have the doctrinaire academic chops to appeal to conservatives. However, he became associated with one of Francis’ most controversial moves by defending his outreach to divorced and civilly remarried Catholics as an organic development of doctrine, not the rupture that some conservatives contended. Schoenborn’s parents divorced when he was a teen, so the issue is personal. He also took heat from the Vatican when he criticized its past refusal to sanction high-ranking sexual abusers, including his predecessor as archbishop of Vienna. Schoenborn has expressed support for civil unions and women as deacons, and was instrumental in editing the 1992 update of the Catechism of the Catholic Church, the handbook of the church’s teaching that Benedict had spearheaded when he headed the Vatican’s doctrine office.    Cardinal Tagle 67, of the Philippines, would appear to be Francis’ pick for the first Asian pope. Francis brought the popular archbishop of Manila to Rome to head the Vatican’s missionary evangelization office, which serves the needs of the Catholic Church in much of Asia and Africa. His role took on greater weight when Francis reformed the Vatican bureaucracy and raised the importance of his evangelization office. Tagle often cites his Chinese lineage – his maternal grandmother was part of a Chinese family that moved to the Philippines - and he is known for becoming emotional when discussing his childhood. Though he has pastoral, Vatican and management experience - he headed the Vatican’s Caritas Internationalis federation of charity groups before coming to Rome permanently - Tagle would be on the young side to be elected pope for life, with cardinals perhaps preferring an older candidate whose papacy would be more limited.    Cardinal Zuppi, 69, the archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian bishops conference, elected in 2022, is closely affiliated with the Sant’Egidio Community, a Rome-based Catholic charity that was influential under Francis, particularly in interfaith dialogue. Zuppi was part of Sant’Egidio’s team that helped negotiate the end of Mozambique’s civil war in the 1990s and was named Francis’ peace envoy for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Francis made him a cardinal in 2019 and later made clear he wanted him in charge of Italy’s bishops, a sign of his admiration for the prelate who, like Francis, is known as a street priest. In another sign of his progressive leanings and closeness to Francis, Zuppi wrote the introduction to the Italian edition of “Building a Bridge,” by the Rev. Martin, an American Jesuit, about the church’s need to improve its outreach to the LGBTQ+ community. Zuppi would be a candidate in Francis’ tradition of ministering to those on the margins, although his relative youth would count against him for cardinals seeking a short papacy. His family had strong institutional ties: Zuppi’s father worked for the Vatican newspaper L’Osservatore Romano, and his mother was the niece of Cardinal Confalonieri, dean of the College of Cardinals in the 1960s and 1970s. (Source: The Associated Press - U.S.)

22.04.2025  While Europe has long dominated the papacy, growing attention is being given to candidates from the Global South, reflecting shifting influence within the Church. Top contenders to lead the Catholic Church:    Cardinal Turkson of Ghana is considered one of Africa’s most energetic and internationally respected church leaders. The 76-year-old former Archbishop of Cape Coast was appointed cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003 and played a key role under Pope Francis as the head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace. Turkson is widely known in the church's social justice circles as an advocate for climate change, poverty, and economic justice, and was sent by Pope Francis as a peace envoy to South Sudan. If elected, Turkson would be the first Black pope in years, a historic move that could deepen the Church’s ties to Africa.    Tagle, former Archbishop of Manila known as Asian Francis, is another strong contender. The 67-year-old is now Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples at the Vatican. Considered a liberal cardinal, he has emerged as a passionate advocate for social justice and inclusivity, emphasizing compassion for the poor and marginalized. Tagle's election would mark another significant milestone in Church history, as he would become the first Asian pope.    Cardinal Parolin, an Italian Catholic prelate, has been the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2013. As one of the Vatican's most experienced officials, the 70-year-old has also served on the Council of Cardinals since 2014. He is widely regarded as an advocate for poverty, economic justice, and climate change and has played an important role in diplomatic negotiations with China and Middle Eastern governments.    Erdő is a Hungarian cardinal of the Roman Catholic Church. He has been the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest since 2003, and if elected, he would be the second Pope to administer in the former Soviet bloc, following John Paul II.   Other candidates include     French Guinea's Sarah,     Italy's Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna, and      Malta's Grech. (Source: Anadolu Agency – Turkey)

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Global

April 21, 2025  Divided by region, here are 15 cardinals who are among the potential favorites to become the next pope.      Europe       Parolin (Italy), 70, Vatican Secretary of State. The Vatican’s chief diplomat, Parolin has been the number two at the Vatican during nearly all of Francis’s papacy. He is known to many world leaders, having travelled the globe, but also to many inside the Roman Curia, the government of the Holy See. A member of Francis’s Council of Cardinals, an advisory body, Parolin 'played a key role in the historic 2018 deal between the Holy See and China on the appointment of bishops'.     Pizzaballa (Italy), 60, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Pizzaballa is the top Catholic in the Middle East with an archdiocese encompassing Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan and Cyprus. He was made a cardinal in September 2023, shortly before the war broke out between Israel and Hamas. The Franciscan has appealed for peace from both sides, and at Christmas in 2024 led mass both in Gaza and in Jerusalem.    Zuppi (Italy), 69, Archbishop of Bologna. Zuppi, a member of the Roman community of Sant’Egidio, has for more than three decades acted as a discreet diplomat for the Vatican including serving as Pope Francis’s special peace envoy for Ukraine. Known for riding his bicycle around Bologna, Zuppi is a popular figure for his decades of work on behalf of the needy. He also advocates for welcoming migrants and gay Catholics into the Church. He has been president of the Italian Episcopal Conference (CEI) since 2022.    Gugerotti (Italy), 69, a diplomat and polyglot from the Italian city of Verona. Gugerotti is an expert on the Slavic world. He served as nuncio - or ambassador of the Holy See - in several countries including Britain, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Ukraine. Consulted by Pope Francis on the war between Ukraine and Russia, Gugerotti was named Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches in 2022.    Aveline (France), Archbishop of Marseille, 66. Born in Algeria, Aveline has spent most of his life in Marseille and is an emblematic figure of the southern French port city. Considered a close friend of Pope Francis, he was appointed auxiliary bishop of Marseille in 2013 and elevated to cardinal in 2022. The smiling, affable Aveline has advocated for dialogue between religions and cultures, and the defense of migrants - both central tenets of Pope Francis’s papacy.    Arborelius (Sweden), 75, Bishop of Stockholm. Appointed in 2017 as Sweden’s first cardinal, Arborelius is a convert to Catholicism in the overwhelmingly Protestant Scandinavian country, home to one of the world’s most secularized societies. He is the first Swedish Catholic bishop since the Protestant Reformation and a staunch defender of Church doctrine, notably opposed to allowing women to be deacons or blessing same-sex couples. Like Pope Francis, Arborelius advocates welcoming migrants to Europe, including Christians, Catholics and potential converts.    Grech (Malta), 68, Bishop emeritus of Gozo. Grech is the secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a body that gathers information from local churches on crucial issues for the Church — whether the place of women or remarried divorced people -  and passes it along to the pope. He has had to perform a delicate balancing act, following Pope Francis’s lead on creating an open, attentive Church while acknowledging the concerns of conservatives. He has acknowledged the fraternal dialogue between Catholics of all levels while assuring traditionalists that the Church is not a democracy, the Church is hierarchical.    Erdő (Hungary), 72, Metropolitan Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest. An intellectual and respected expert in canon law, Erdő speaks seven languages, has published more than 25 books, and is recognized for his openness to other religions. His ties with the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán - whose hardline anti-migrant views clash with those of Pope Francis - have been under scrutiny in the past. Known for his enthusiasm for evangelism, the cardinal who grew up under Communism is a conservative on such issues as gay marriage and divorcees who remarry.    Hollerich, 67, Archbishop of Luxembourg. A Jesuit like Pope Francis, Hollerich spent over 20 years in Japan, and is a specialist in European-Asian cultural relations as well as German literature. Firm on dogma, the theologian is still open to the need for the Church to adapt to societal changes, much like the Argentine pope he was close to and for whom he served as an adviser on the Council of Cardinals. Hollerich has advocated for the environment and has pushed for laypeople, especially young people, to have more involvement in the Church.      Asia      Tagle (Philippines), 67, Metropolitan Archbishop emeritus of Manila. Tagle, Asia’s frontrunner for the papacy, is a charismatic moderate who has not been afraid to criticize the Church for its shortcomings, including over sexual abuse of minors. Fluent in English, he is an eloquent speaker with self-deprecating humor and, like Francis, is a leading advocate for the poor, migrants and marginalized people. Nicknamed Chito, he was made a cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2012 and had already been considered a candidate for pope in the 2013 conclave in which Francis was elected.     Bo (Myanmar), 76, Archbishop of Yangon, President of the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences. Bo was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2015, his country’s first and only cardinal. Bo has called for dialogue and reconciliation in conflict-ridden Myanmar, and after the military coup of 2021 appealed to opposition protesters to remain non-violent. He has defended the persecuted mainly Muslim Rohingya, calling them victims of ethnic cleansing, and spoken out against human trafficking uprooting the lives of many young Burmese.      Africa       Turkson (Ghana), 76, Archbishop emeritus of Cape Coast. One of the Church’s most influential cardinals from Africa, Turkson is often mentioned as a possible first black pope — although he said in a 2010 he didn’t want the job, insisting any such pope would have a rough time. He serves as the Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences. Born into a humble family of 10 children, Turkson speaks six languages and has visited the World Economic Forum in Davos multiple times to convince business leaders of the perils of trickle-down economics.    Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo), 65, Archbishop of Kinshasa. He is the only cardinal from Africa on Pope Francis’s Council of Cardinals, the advisory committee to the pontiff. As president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, he signed a letter in January 2024 voicing opposition to the Vatican’s declaration allowing priests to carry out non-liturgical blessings of same-sex unions. In a 2023 interview, he proclaimed that Africa is the future of the Church, it’s obvious.      Americas       Prevost (United States), 69, Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo, a native of Chicago. Prevost is the prefect of the powerful Dicastery for Bishops, which is charged with advising the pope on appointments of new bishops. He spent years as a missionary in Peru. Made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, he is also the president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.    Dolan (United States), 75, Archbishop of New York. A jovial, ruddy-faced extrovert with Irish-American roots, Dolan is a theological conservative, fiercely opposed to abortion. The former archbishop of Milwaukee, he oversaw the fallout from a major sexual abuse scandal in the diocese. In New York, amid shrinking Church membership, Dolan has reached out to embrace the growing Hispanic population, which is predominantly Catholic. (Source: Inquirer – Philippines / Agence France-Presse)

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 Europe

Pope Francis’s humility and life’s work at the heart of condolences from European royalty. Monarchs have shared tributes to the late Pontiff.

Belgium
21st April 2025  King Philippe and Queen Mathilde, who were the last royals to welcome a visit from Pope Francis last September, penned a heartfelt tribute, writing, “We share the grief of all Catholics around the world and all who loved and appreciated him. We also express our gratitude for the honor he gave us by visiting our country.” The Belgian royals added that Pope Francis was “a great man, close to the most humble and concerned about the problems of the world.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

Denmark
21st April 2025  King Frederik and Queen Mary wrote of their “profound sorrow” learning about the death of Pope Francis and that they will remember him “as a Pope dedicated to promoting peace, justice, and always advocating for people living in vulnerable situations.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

Luxembourg
21st April 2025  Grand Duke Henri and Grand Duchess Maria Teresa shared that their grief “is all the greater given that we had the honor and immense joy of welcoming him on an official visit to Luxembourg last September.” The couple added: “Pope Francis was a man of great compassion, sharing the pain and suffering of others. Constantly concerned about the problems of the most disadvantaged and refugees, he was devoted to the most vulnerable, while remaining attentive to the hopes of young people.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

Monaco
21st April 2025  Prince Albert and Princess Charlene wrote of their “infinite sadness and deep sorrow” upon learning that Pope Francis had passed on Easter Monday. The Monegasque royals added: “In this time of pain and mourning, we keep in mind and in our hearts the apostolic blessings which the Holy Father lavishly bestowed upon us during his Pontificate and fervently pray for the repose of his soul. May his unrelenting message of love, brotherhood, peace, faith, justice, mercy, compassion, and respect for our nature continue to nourish our thoughts and commitments to the service of the common good and radiate upon a world he will leave his mark on. With profound gratitude, we pay tribute to the very great servant of mankind who has just left us.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

the Netherlands
21st April 2025  King Willem-Alexander and Queen Máxima of the Netherlands shared their memories of meeting Pope Francis in 2017, and wrote: “Pope Francis radiated mercy in everything. From a rock-solid belief in God’s love, he advocated compassion and humanity. Living a sober and simple life, he always sided with the vulnerable and needy. He was deeply convinced that God works in humility and compassion. In doing so, he actively sought connections with other faith communities around the world. He embodied the listening and loving Church and in doing so won the hearts of many – both within the Roman Catholic Church and beyond. We cherish his memory with gratitude.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

Norway
21st April 2025  King Harald shared his “deepfelt condolences” on behalf of the people of Norway for Pope Francis, who was “highly respected and loved for being a passionate and clear voice for the most vulnerable in society.” The King added that he sends his sympathy to “all Catholics in Norway and around the world on this sad occasion.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

Spain
21st April 2025  King Felipe and Queen Letizia wrote that they wished to convey their sadness to “the entire Catholic Church our condolences and affection, as well as our prayers for his eternal rest.” “Throughout his pontificate, His Holiness Pope Francis has borne witness to the importance of love of neighbor, fraternity, and social friendship for the world of our century,” King Felipe wrote. “We will always continue to be inspired by his conviction in the need to bring encouragement and comfort to the poorest and most needy, and by the importance he placed on dialogue and consensus to achieve a more just and united world.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

Sweden
21st April 2025  King Carl XVI Gustaf said, on behalf of himself and Queen Silvia, that they were remembering Pope Francis “with great respect and warmth.” They continued: “By virtue of his natural charisma, deep humility, and unwavering defense of human dignity, the Pope was a significant leader.” The Swedish royals remembered Pope Francis’s historic visit to Lund, where Lutherans and Catholics were encouraged to come together “in a spirit of reconciliation and understanding,” and how the Pope met with Queen Silvia to discuss “the many injustices that the world’s children are forced to endure.” King Carl XIV Gustaf and Queen Silvia concluded: “Our thoughts go out to Catholics around the world who have lost a great leader and role model.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

Vatican
26-04-2025  Hundreds of thousands mourn late Pope Francis at Vatican funeral. Coffin of Pope Francis laid to rest at the basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore in Rome for burial, following his funeral at the Vatican. (Source: Buenos Aires Times - Argentina)

April 26, 2025  Hundreds of thousands gather for Pope Francis’ funeral. /Photo/ (Source: The Associated Press - U.S.)

April 26th, 2025  Live | Funeral Mass of Pope Francis from the Vatican. Liturgical celebration presided over by Cardinal Re, Dean of the College of Cardinals. At the conclusion of the Mass, the coffin of the Holy Father taken in procession to the Papal Basilica of Saint Mary Major, where the burial take place. /Video: 4h 15min/ (Source: The Eternal Word Television Network (EWTN) / YouTube = U.S.)
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Vatikán
2025. ápr. 26.  Ferenc pápát búcsúztatják a Vatikánban. 10 órakor elkezdődött a gyászszertartás. A szertartás után a koporsót a római Santa Maria Maggiore-székesegyházba vitték, ott lesz Ferenc pápa végső nyughelye. /Videó: 3h 41 perc/ (Forrás: M1 - Híradó - Magyarország / YouTube)
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Asia

As the world mourns Pope Francis, who died on 21 April at the age of 88, monarchs around the world have shared tributes to the late Ppontiff.

Jordan
21st April 2025  From Jordan, King Abdullah and Queen Rania shared separate remembrances of Pope Francis. The Jordanian king wrote: “My deepest condolences to our Christian brothers and sisters around the world on the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis, a man of peace who was beloved by the people for his kindness, humility, and tireless efforts to bring everyone together. His memory will live on in the hearts of millions.” Queen Rania wrote: “In a world that can often feel heartless, Pope Francis always had love to spare - for the less fortunate, refugee families, and children in war zones, in Gaza and around the world. Humanity has lost an invaluable champion for peace and compassion today. May he rest in peace.” (Source: Royal Central - United Kingdom)

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Nobel-békedíj
2025. IV. 21. 12:47 Hárman voltak napjainkban elkötelezetten a béke híveiként elismerhető kezdeményezők. Egyikük, Ferenc pápa ma, Húsvét hétfőn, reggel 7 óra 35 perckor elhunyt. 88 évet élt. 2013. március 13.-a óta állt a katolikus egyház élén. Isten nyugosztalja!

                   J.

.5 4 21 12:47

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Hungary
17.04.2025  "It's shocking to see that while the entire world, including the Americas, Asia, and Africa, is in favor of peace returning to Europe, it is the European politicians going against peace,' says Hungarian top diplomat Szijjártó at a joint press conference with his Pakistani counterpart Dar, who is also the deputy prime minister, in the capital Islamabad. This attitude is "unacceptable," he remarked. He called on European politicians not to undermine US President Trump's efforts to restore peace in Central Europe. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

France
17/04/2025  US Secretary of State Rubio began talks in Paris today aimed at reviving stalled negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine and addressing growing tensions between the US and Europe. On his first official visit to France, Rubio met with French President Macron and Foreign Minister Barrot. He was accompanied by Witkoff, US President Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and the Middle East. High-level Ukrainian officials and ministers also arrived in Paris for separate meetings with US officials and representatives from France, Germany, and the UK. French Defense Minister Lecornu is in Washington for talks with US Defense Secretary Hegseth. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Tuesday 15 April 2025  Multiple prisons in France hit by co-ordinated attacks involving gunfire and arson. France’s anti-terrorism prosecutor’s department is investigating the attacks alongside the national security agency. Prisons were hit in Aix-en-Provence and Marseille, Valence and Nîmes, Luynes, Villepinte, and Nanterre. The wave of attacks comes as lawmakers are poised to approve a sweeping new anti-drug trafficking law that would increase the powers of police investigating narcos and create a new prosecutors’ office for organised crime. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Germany
(Tuesday), /04/15/2025  On Sunday, 'conservative' leader Merz advocated sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine in an interview with broadcaster ARD. He argued that the advanced weapons systems would allow Kyiv to disrupt Russian military supply lines, particularly those linked to Crimea. Russia rebuked the statement, with Kremlin spokesperson Peskov telling that European countries were 'further provoking the continuation of the war'. Taurus missiles, with a range of more than 500 kilometers, are known for their precision in striking fortified targets such as bridges and deeply buried command bunkers. Under the new coalition, the Social Democrats will retain the Defense Ministry, with Pistorius expected to continue as defense minister. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Greece
Monday 14 April 2025  Greece continues to procure defences. It has signed a new deal with France to purchase dozens of anti-ship missiles. The southeastern European nation has already bought two dozen Rafale warplanes and three Belharra-class frigates. In addition, Greece has said it will buy a fourth Belharra frigate and cruise missiles from France, as part of a 25-billion-euro defence plan by 2036. Speaking in Parliament earlier this month, Defense Minister Dendias said Greece plans to shift from traditional defence systems to a high-tech, networked strategy centred on mobile, Artificial Intelligence-powered missile systems, drone technologies, and advanced command units - reducing reliance on conventional fleets. Greece's modernisation drive – launched after years of defence cuts during the 2010-2018 financial crisis – already includes all branches of the armed forces and focuses on cooperation with France, Israel, and the United States. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Italy
18/04/2025  Italy, the world's fourth-largest exporter, sends around 10 percent of its exports to the United States. US Vice President Vance today met with Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome to discuss tariffs and a ceasefire in Ukraine, ahead of celebrating Easter at the Vatican and a meeting with the pope's right-hand man. Meloni was the first leader from Europe to visit Trump since he imposed 20 percent tariffs on EU exports, which he has since suspended for 90 days. The two leaders struck a warm tone yesterday during a working lunch and a meeting in the Oval Office, with Trump hailing the 48-year-old Italian premier as "fantastic". Meloni shares conservative views with Vance and President Trump, whom she met in Washington just a day before on a charm offensive aiming for a US-EU tariffs deal. Casting herself as the only European who could de-escalate Trump's trade war, Meloni highlighted their conservative common ground and said she wanted to "make the West great again". Meloni's decision to personally intercede with Trump has caused some disquiet among EU allies, who are concerned that her visit could undermine the bloc's unity. While Trump expressed confidence about an eventual deal with the 27-nation bloc he has accused of trying to "screw" the United States, he said yesterday that he was in "no rush". Russia's war in Ukraine meanwhile remained a touchy subject between the US and Italian leaders. Meloni has been a staunch ally of Ukraine and Zelensky since Russia's invasion in 2022. Trump said with Meloni beside him that 'I don't hold Zelensky responsible but I'm not exactly thrilled with the fact that that war started,' adding that he was "not a big fan' of that leader. The 40-year-old Vance, who converted to Catholicism in his mid-30s, said he was "looking forward to spending Easter here". "This is a place that was built by people that love humans and love God," he said, adding that it "really lifts up the human spirit". He travelled to Rome with his wife and three children, with the family due to celebrate Easter at St Peter's on Sunday. Later today, Vance will attend Good Friday mass at St Peter's Basilica. Tomorrow he is due to speak with Cardinal Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, the second-highest official at the Holy See after Pope Francis. (Source: France 24 ’with AFP’)

Poland
April 18, 2025  ’We want French nukes, Polish president says.’ In March, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland was ’talking seriously’ with France about the possibility. French President Macron has suggested extending France’s so-called nuclear umbrella over its European allies to the European Union’s eastern flank. With around 300 nuclear warheads, France is the only EU member country to possess such weapons, and one of three NATO members along with the U.S. and the U.K. ’I believe we can accept both solutions,’ Duda said in remarks published today about hosting both U.S. and French warheads on Polish soil. ’These two ideas are neither contradictory nor mutually exclusive.’ Poland and Denmark have previously expressed openness to the idea of sheltering under France’s nuclear protection. Warsaw has dramatically upscaled its conventional military in recent years, ’with its fighting force of 200,000 now the largest in the EU - and it hopes to build an army half a million strong in the coming years’. (Source: Politico - based in U.S., owned by a German company)

European Central Bank
17/04/2025  The European Central Bank (ECB) today slashed its three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The key deposit rate now stands at 2.25%, its lowest level since February 2023. The interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility were also cut to 2.40% and 2.65%, respectively. This marked the seventh consecutive rate cut since the ECB initiated its easing cycle last June. The bank stated that the disinflation process is well on track as inflation has continued to develop as it expected, with both headline and core inflation declining in March. "Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis," it said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

European Commission
April 15, 2025  Work has started on a 17th package of sanctions against Russia focusing on the shadow fleet and other elements, EU High Representative Kallas announced after the European Foreign Affairs Council, convened on 14 April in Luxembourg. It is clear that all the EU member states want peace, Kallas told journalists after the meeting. 'The EU is the biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine, but also the greatest supporter of the Ukrainian defence industry, as European countries have so far committed over €23 billion for military aid to Ukraine this year, according to the High Representative. The Council also touched on the training of Ukrainian soldiers through the EU Military Assistance Mission to Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine), which has so far trained over 73,000 soldiers. As to the initiative on delivering two million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine, the High Representative announced that two-thirds of the target had already been reached, and that ’a large majority of member states’ agreed that the EU needed to do more'. (Source: Eu Neighbours East – ’funded by the European Union’)

European Union
(15 April 2025)  Germany is the largest extra-EU exporter of medicinal and pharmaceutical products, with €67.9 billion of exports recorded in 2024. Ireland, with €56.6 billion worth and Belgium, with €41.4 billion of exports, rank second and third. In 2024, the EU exported €313.4 billion worth of medicinal and pharmaceutical products, which was a 13.5% increase on the previous year. Imports saw an increase of 0.5% last year, totalling €119.7 billion. The main destination for extra-EU exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products last year was the United States, which accounted for 38.2% of all exports outside the EU, or €119.8 billion. (Source: Europe-data - ?)

Russia
(Saturday), April 19, 2025  "Guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce. I order that all military actions be stopped for this period," Putin said at a meeting with Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov. (Source: NPR - U.S.)

15/04/2025  Moscow’s forces have pushed Ukrainian troops out of all but 50 square kilometres of Kursk region, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War, which has mapped the conflict and published daily updates since the start of the war. When visiting Kursk in March, Putin instructed military commanders to set up a buffer zone along the border to prevent further Ukrainian incursions. Pushing into neighbouring Sumy region, Moscow's army has also captured several border settlements and controls around 95 square kilometres in the Ukrainian oblast. Regional capital Sumy lies just 18 miles from the Russian border. (Source: France 24)

April 13, 2025  Dugin, a longtime fixture of Russian ’far-right’ politics, spent years calling for Moscow to reject Western-style liberal democracy and restore its lost empire. Some analysts have dubbed him “Putin’s brain,” although he says his influence over the Russian president is exaggerated. The 63-year-old Dugin has long promoted Orthodox Christian traditionalism and the reunification of former Soviet republics with large ethnic-Russian populations. After the collapse of the U.S.S.R., he became a fierce opponent of the pro-U.S. government of Yeltsin, Russia’s first post-Soviet president. Dugin published dozens of books and founded the Eurasia Party, a fringe group that advocates for the unification of former Soviet republics, as well as Serbia and Mongolia. Although Dugin has called homosexuality a perversion, his first wife became one of Russia’s earliest LGBTQ activists and helped organize an unsanctioned Moscow gay-pride parade in 2006. In 2014, after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and began to foment armed clashes in eastern Ukraine, Dugin demanded the annihilation of Kyiv’s pro-Western leaders and their supporters. “Kill, kill and kill. There should be no more discussions,” he said during a video interview with a Russian online news service. The remarks sparked a furor that resulted in Dugin’s removal from his post at Moscow State University. Dugin is now promoting a softer version of such ideas in U.S. right-wing media. Appearing on Jones’s website Infowars in February, he blamed “globalists” for driving a wedge between Russia and Ukraine. Dugin started to reach a broader U.S. audience last year when he was interviewed by Carlson, the former Fox News host with millions of followers on YouTube and X. Their video encounter, recorded in Moscow, came out after Carlson’s interview with Putin at the Kremlin. Appearing on their shows, he has attacked “wokeism,” transgender activists and Soros, winning praise from his hosts. Speaking in fluent but accented English, Dugin responded to Carlson’s opening question with a five-minute lecture that ranged from the Protestant Reformation to artificial intelligence to the LGBTQ movement. “Finally, family is destroyed in favor of individualism,” Dugin said. “What you’re describing is clearly happening and it’s horrifying,” Carlson replied. During the past two months, Dugin has sat for lengthy interviews with Greenwald, the journalist who hosts a show on Rumble, a video-streaming site popular with conservatives; podcaster Napolitano, a former Fox News legal analyst; and Nawfal, host of a popular show on X. Now, Dugin is trying to find common ground with supporters of President Trump. As Trump and Putin move their countries closer in the realm of geopolitics, Dugin is trying to do the same on a cultural level. “I am interested in Trump and Trumpism,” Dugin told. “And Trumpists themselves are probably interested, in turn, in my ideas, theories and philosophical-ideological explorations.” Dugin’s critics decry U.S. media figures who have given him a platform to reach an American audience. He sees Trump as helping Russia regain its sphere of influence by having the U.S. retreat from its role as a global superpower. In a new book, available in English, released in February through a small European publishing house that has long carried Dugin’s works, “The Trump Revolution,” Dugin hails the president’s dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development as “a missile strike on the headquarters of globalism.” (Source: WSJ - U.S.)

4/12/2025  Putin’s secret dealmaker emerges from the shadows in Ukraine peace talks: Col. Gen. Beseda. (Source: MSN / The Wall Street Journal = U.S.)

Ukraine
April 17, 2025  Towards the clinching of an agreement on developing minerals in Ukraine: "We are happy to announce the signing, with our American partners, of a Memorandum of Intent, which paves the way for an Economic Partnership Agreement and the establishment of the Investment Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine," Ukraine's first deputy prime minister and economy minister Svyrydenko wrote on the social media platform X. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

Sunday, April 13, 2025  At least 21 people were killed, a further 83 people were injured in a Russian missile strike on the city of Sumy today. Two ballistic missiles struck the heart of the city at around 10:15 a.m. (Source: NPR / The Associated Press = U.S.)

Sat 12 Apr 2025  US and Ukrainian officials met yesterday to discuss White House proposals for a minerals deal. Trump last week complained Zelenskyy was trying to back out of an agreement and said Ukraine’s president would have big problems if he failed to sign. On Thursday, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine could only agree if there was parity between the two sides, with revenues split '50-50'. The latest US draft is more maximalist than the original version from February, which proposed giving Washington $500bn worth of rare metals, as well as oil and gas. The most recent document includes a demand that the US government’s International Development Finance Corporation take control of the natural gas pipeline in Ukraine used to send Russian gas to Europe. It runs from the town of Sudzha in western Russia to the city of Uzhhorod, about 1,200km away, on the border with the EU. Built in Soviet times, the pipeline is a key piece of infrastructure and a major energy route. On 1 January, Ukraine cut off the supply of gas when its five-year contract with the Russian state energy company Gazprom expired. It had previously earned hundreds of millions of euros in transit fees, including during the first three years of full-scale war. Landa, a senior economist with the Centre for Economic Strategy, a Kyiv thinktank, said the Americans’ demands had little chance of being accepted by Kyiv. The US Treasury confirmed technical talks were ongoing. (Source: The Guardian - United Kingdom)

(Saturday), Apr 12, 2025  US and Ukrainian officials met last Friday to discuss a US proposal for access to Ukraine's mineral wealth. But prospects for a breakthrough seemed slim due to the meeting's ’antagonistic’ atmosphere. Tension stemmed from the Trump administration's latest draft proposal being more extensive than the initial version. Despite these challenges, discussions were confirmed by a Treasury Department spokesperson who described them as "technical in nature." Lieutenant General Kellogg, Trump's envoy to Kyiv, has suggested a possible partitioning of the country similar to Berlin's division post-World War II. As Russia has still not agreed on a truce, Kellogg said Ukraine could be divided into zones of control. British and French troops would make up a reassurance force in the west, while Russian forces would take over the east, he envisioned. US officials have disclosed that more than 100 Chinese nationals are fighting for Russia against Ukraine. These are mercenaries with no direct connections to China's government. However, it was confirmed that Chinese military officers have been fighting the war behind Russian lines with Beijing's approval, in order to gain tactical lessons from the conflict. The United States President's special envoy, Witkoff, and Putin talked for over four hours, discussing aspects of a potential Ukrainian settlement. Ukraine's allies pledged a record $24 billion in additional military support for Kyiv. The meeting, attended by over 40 countries, was jointly convened by the UK and Germany, but the US did not attend in person. (Source: NewsBytes – India)

11.04.2025  Defense Minister Umerov announced today that Norway will provide €7 billion ($7.9 billion) in military aid to Ukraine in 2025, following a meeting with Norwegian Defense Minister Sandvik. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Europe
April 14, 2025  Russia and China would respond to US base closures and troop withdrawals from Europe with euphoria, said Admiral (Ret.) Foggo, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, former Commander of US Naval Forces Europe, NATO’s Joint Force Command Naples, and the US Sixth Fleet. He did 40 years in the Navy - 12 years underwater, 12 years in the Pentagon, 12 years overseas. He had nine commands. His last command was Commander Naval Forces Europe, CINCUSNAVEUR, Commander Naval Forces Africa, all the Navy in Africa-US, and then Commander Allied Joint Force Command, Naples, Italy. That was the NATO command that went from the North Pole to Africa, to halfway across the Atlantic, to the shores of Iraq. He discussed the role of US military infrastructure in Europe and what the United States risks losing if it withdraws from the continent. ’My fear is that our allies, moreover, our adversaries would see us as a regional power focused only on the Indo-Pacific and not a global power focused on the Middle East, Africa, Europe, South America, anywhere where there are threats to our democracy and our lifestyle’, or that of our like-minded allies, partners, and friends, he said. Which US bases in Europe are most critical for military operations on and beyond the European continent, and which he considers the most vital? „First of all, the headquarters in Naples, Italy. In Naples, located at Capodichino, which is a dual-use airport. It’s a big footprint”. As the four-star Commander of Naval Forces Europe and Africa, he had a headquarters there. As the commander of the NATO command, he was in Lago Patria in a brand new NATO base, to conduct NATO operations, US operations in Europe and US operations in Africa, all self-contained in one area in Naples, that’s not far apart. ’When we did a joint task force, Odyssey Dawn, the strikes in Libya that later became the NATO operation Unified Protector, that was nine months of operating in the Mediterranean against Gaddafi and his forces who were killing civilians. We operated out of the command ship, which was in Gaeta, north of Italy, and we operated at sea. But we could not have done that without the Italians. When we did strike missions in Syria, the command and control for that was right there in Capodichino’. And the naval base in Rota - "It grew from one destroyer when I got there to now five. They’re multi-mission, USS Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, and they’re responsible for, at the time, European missile defense, the phased adaptive approach. So, Rota is very valuable. It has a big air base. You have pier space, so you can go in and moor alongside. Ships can go in for refit, medical emergencies, to refuel, get supplies, and do training. Our destroyers there are what we call Forward Deployed Naval Forces (FDNF). We have them in Japan, we have them in Rota. It is a jewel in the western part of the Mediterranean that gives us access to the Atlantic, access to the Med, access to the Baltic. It’s unsurpassed”. „Then there’s Souda Bay, Crete. Crete is like a stationary aircraft carrier in the middle of the Mediterranean. You have an air base there, Iraklion, and you have a pier in a NATO facility, and the NATO Maritime Interdiction Operational Training Center. It’s for amphibious ships that are going into areas of conflict, like the Arabian Gulf, and Marines are trained to do hostile vessel boarding, search, and seizure. They also have a carrier pier”. „Sigonella in Sicily has a long history. We have an air base there that’s invaluable. We occupied the base as a NATO partner and ally of Italy. It’s another stationary aircraft carrier. During Odyssey Dawn and Unified Protector, we had all the sorties flying out of that base, flying off of aircraft carriers, refueling and rearming, and going in and striking targets in Libya. In nine months, we did something like 19,000 sorties, that’s an individual flight. I think we dropped almost 10,000 precision-guided munitions to take Gaddafi’s 32nd Brigade and the military capacity away from him’. ’If you didn’t have those bases, we’d be hard-pressed to do maintenance on ships, to get spare parts to ships. The bases like Sigonella and Crete, and Rota also have a role as a transloading facility. If you’re flying a big C-17 aircraft across from the United States, or a C-5 Galaxy, you could drop it in Rota, you could drop it in Heraklion, you could drop it in Sigonella, and it could move on later on, on a ship or on another aircraft. And for humanitarian supplies, when there’s a disaster, like the 2023 Turkish earthquake. The Greeks have Thessaloniki, which is a fuel hub where you can store fuel. They also have Alexandroupolis, which is a new port that’s getting a lot of notoriety. During the Ukraine war, some of the relief that was going in, whether it was military, non-military, was going to those two places and then moving on. This is an established footprint. We have people there”. Without missile defense in Redzikowo in Poland and Deveselu in Romania, what global threats become harder for the US to counter? „Missile defense ashore. That’s called Aegis Ashore. There’s one in Romania, one in Poland. The purpose is to knock down Iranian ballistic missiles. Back in 2014, when we were building the facility in Romania, and President Obama gave us a date of, I think, December 28, 2015, the thing will be done and ready for technical certification. It was a real rush. I would talk to the Europeans about it, and they’d go, so what’s the purpose of the base? And I would go, well, it’s to protect Europe against Iranian missiles. And a lot of people go, do you really think they’re going to do that? Nobody asks that today. Because what did the Iranians do? They’ve attacked Israel twice with 300 missiles aimed at Israel that we knocked down. Only 1% of those missiles got through. But they could also go on to Europe’. ’We have been there in Deveselu since 2014, and in Redzikowo since 2016. You can’t just build that trust in 48 hours. It takes time’. What unique advantages do US bases in Europe provide that Indo-Pacific or Middle East bases don’t? Foggo: „There is no NATO Alliance in the Pacific. There’s no alliance that holds 32 nations and the Pacific together against the Chinese. /Source: Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) – with offices in Washington, D.C., U.S. and Warsaw, Poland/.

12 April 2025  Several European nations have been offering sobering guidance in recent months - envisioning garages and subway stations transformed into bunkers and promoting psychological resilience. Finland has been preparing for the possibility of a conflict with Russia for decades. Since the 1950s, the construction of bomb shelters under apartment blocks and office buildings has been mandatory. The state has been accelerating its state of readiness since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Two years ago, prompted by Russia's war, the Finnish government took stock of its available emergency shelters, finding it had a total of 50,500 - which could shelter a possible 4.8 million people in a country of 5.6m. Helsinki's interior ministry also issued new crisis guidance in November, giving readers advice on how to prepare for long power cuts, water outages, telecommunications disruptions, extreme weather events and military conflict. Last June, Germany updated its Framework Directive for Overall Defence, giving directions on what to do should conflict break out in Europe. The document envisions the complete transformation of daily life for German citizens in the event of war. A preparedness booklet 'If the crisis or war comes' was distributed to households in Sweden in November. That leaflet instructs Swedes on how warnings would be issued in the event of war, including an outdoor alert system which it says is operational in most areas. 'Go indoors, close all windows and doors and, if possible, switch off the ventilation. Listen to Swedish public broadcaster Sveriges Radio, channel P4 for more information,' the pamphlet instructs. Specific advice is given to Swedish citizens regarding attacks using nuclear weapons, telling them: 'Radiation levels will lower drastically after a couple of days.' One overarching message is NATO Secretary-General Rutte’s who told security experts in Brussels in December: ’It is time to shift to a wartime mindset.’ The European Commission has urged all citizens to stockpile enough food and other essential supplies to sustain them for at least 72 hours in the event of a crisis in guidance released in March. How effective these contingency plans would really be, and will take civilians the guidance seriously? There remains no guarantee on how much attention individuals will pay to civilian protection guidance. The fine line is to increase preparedness without going into alarmism and catastrophising. In Finland - which lost territory to Russia during the Winter War in 1939-40 - and in the Baltic nations, which were annexed by the Soviet Union between 1940 and 1991, the threat from Russia is more embedded. ’They learned from history; nobody is going to help us. We have to do it on our own.’ In Portugal, Italy and the United Kingdom the threat from Russia is less present in the national consciousness. Italy is more concerned with the threat from terrorism and instability from fragile states close to the country's southern border. The mainland UK, an island nation, was last invaded by a foreign power in 1066, while for many countries in Western Europe, they were invaded during World War II. Living generations have less experience from which to draw on and its civilians may be less likely to take heed of any government advice. The civilian protection plans in the past, have even been met with ridicule. The British government’s pamphlet published in May 1980 included tips on how to build a makeshift fallout room in your home, including a so-called inner refuge to protect from radioactive dust. The UK government's advice to whitewash windows to help stop the spread of heat from a nuclear blast was one of the more comical suggestions. Civilians were instructed to 'coat windows inside with diluted emulsion paint of a light colour so that they will reflect away much of the heat flash, even if the blast which will follow is to shatter them'. The campaign became the subject of criticism for offering unrealistic advice and presenting a false sense of optimism in the face of nuclear annihilation. It was long satirised in British popular culture. The booklet was published at a time when there wasn't an imminent threat of attack. (Source: CNN - U.S.)

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Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo
April 15, 2025  Act or watch? The Democratic Republic of the Congo is offering the United States significant mining rights in exchange for military support. In February 2025, President Tshisekedi wrote to President Trump asking for help pushing back the M23 rebel group. It is using access to cobalt, copper and lithium as leverage. The DRC hosts more than 1,100 different minerals and precious metals – including tin, tungsten and tantalum – and is also the world's fourth-largest diamond producer. The country holds an estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral wealth. It produced 244,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2024, almost 80% of the global supply. The deal could help Kinshasa reduce its dependence on China. Officials in Washington have signalled a willingness to consider multibillion-dollar investment in return. The discussions form part of a broader push to secure new supplies of battery metals as demand for electric vehicles and energy infrastructure accelerates. US support in the DRC has primarily taken the form of traditional development aid, focusing on health and education rather than strategic commercial engagement. They have done little to advance trade, investment or mineral security goals. The Export-Import Bank of the US (EXIM) offers no coverage for the DRC. The Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Washington's development finance institution, has focused narrowly on the Lobito Corridor. China has a dominant interest in the DRC's mining sector. Over the past two decades, China has seized the opportunity to fill the vacuum left by American absence from the country. The landmark 2007 Sicomines deal – a resource-for-infrastructure agreement – granted Chinese companies access to copper and cobalt in exchange for a $3bn infrastructure commitment. The deposits near Kolwezi – one of the DRC's most important mining regions in the south of the country – are estimated to be worth around $93bn. China's dominance was further cemented in 2016 when US-based Freeport-McMoRan sold its majority stake in Tenke Fungurume (TFM) – the world’s largest cobalt mine and seventh-largest copper mine – to China Molybdenum Company (CMOC). Freeport, heavily indebted following misjudged oil and gas acquisitions before the 2014 price crash, announced the $2.65bn sale in May 2016. Canadian firm Lundin Mining, which held a 24% stake, declined its right of first refusal. CMOC stepped in, backed by $1.59bn in financing from six Chinese banks, including state-owned giants such as the Bank of China and China Development Bank. It then facilitated the purchase of Lundin's stake by Hong Kong-based BHR, which used $700mn in Chinese bank financing. CMOC later took over BHR's interest, securing 80% control of TFM. Gécamines, the DRC's state miner, retained 20%. Chinese state-owned banks financed $2.48bn of the $2.68bn in credit used for the TFM deal (adjusted to 2021 prices). Washington’s failure to contest the TFM sale is arguably the most significant commercial misstep it has made in Africa. Today, China owns or holds stakes in 15 of the DRC's largest copper and cobalt mines. Glencore, the country's last major Western mining investor, is reportedly weighing the sale of its $6.8bn Mutanda and Kamoto operation – raising the prospect of another strategic asset falling into Chinese hands. The most significant Chinese mining projects include the Kamoa-Kakula copper project, Tenke Fungurume mine and Kamoto copper. The Kamoa-Kakula copper project is owned by a joint venture comprising Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River Global (0.8%) and the DRC government (20%). The project is among the world's most significant undeveloped high-grade copper discoveries, with measured resources of 90mn tonnes at 3.13% copper and probable mineral reserves of 235mn tonnes. The mine started producing concentrates in May 2021, with commercial production beginning in July 2021. It is being advanced through a phased approach, with peak production estimated at 800,000 tpy. This would make the project the second-biggest copper complex globally. The Tenke Fungurume mine is a copper-cobalt project owned by Chinese private holding company CMOC (80%) and Gécamines (20%). CMOC acquired controlling interests in the mine in 2017 in a $3bn transaction, and in August 2021 it announced plans to double production with a $2.51bn investment. The investments will raise output from 183,000 tpy of copper to 383,000 tpy, and from 15,400 tpy of cobalt to 32,400 tpy, bringing total mineral production to 415,400 tpy. It is the world’s second-largest cobalt mine. The Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) is owned by a joint venture comprising Glencore (75%), Gécamines (20%) and Simco (5%). It is the largest active cobalt mine in the world. KCC owns two open-cast mines (KOV and Mashamba East), one underground mine (Kamoto concentrator) and the Luili refinery in Kolwezi. KCC targets an annual nameplate capacity of 300,000 tonnes of copper and 30,000 tonnes of cobalt. Much of the mineral production is concentrated in the southern provinces of Haut-Katanga and Lualaba, where established industrial operations operate alongside thousands of artisanal miners. The country was attracting more than $130mn in exploration investment in 2024. In the same year, it secured $1.8bn in foreign direct investment (FDI). Vast areas remain underdeveloped, particularly in the east, where insecurity, poor roads and overlapping concessions deter formal investment. North Kivu and Ituri are thought to hold significant untapped reserves. Cobalt is essential to lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles (EVs), while copper underpins power grids, electric motors and charging infrastructure. By 2030, global cobalt demand is expected to double and the DRC is forecast to contribute 44% of the supply growth. Lithium and tantalum – of which the DRC is also a leading producer – are critical to semiconductors, smartphones and defence applications. Kinshasa faces increasing pressure to scale up production, strengthen governance and broaden its investor base beyond Chinese state-backed operators. The DRC dominates global cobalt reserves, holding 6mn tonnes out of a total of 11mn tonnes worldwide. Two other mines Mutanda and Kamoto also hold significant reserves. Australia and Indonesia follow with 1.7mn tonnes and 500,000 tonnes respectively. In copper, the DRC’s ore bodies grades exceed 2.5%, more than four times the global average and eight times higher than at Morenci, the largest copper mine in the US. The DRC is dubbed 'the Saudi Arabia of electric vehicle age'. The global thirst for copper is expected to jump by 20% by 2035. The country also has vast coltan reserves and is a significant, though underdeveloped, source of lithium. Manono-Kitolo, in the southern province of Tanganyika, is believed by some to be the world’s largest lithium deposit. It contains an estimated 120mn tonnes of lithium ore grading 0.6%, yielding around 720,000 tonnes of lithium. The project remains stalled due to a dispute between China’s Zijin Mining and Australia’s AVZ Minerals. In the country's eastern areas armed groups have disrupted mining zones. As of April 2025, the DRC is battling its most serious escalation of violence in years, with the M23 rebel group launching a renewed and highly coordinated offensive in the east. Since January, the group has overrun large parts of North and South Kivu, seizing control of strategic cities including Goma and Bukavu. The offensive has killed an estimated 7,000 people and displaced more than 450,000. M23, composed mainly of Congolese Tutsi fighters, as intercepted communications suggest, is receiving direct military support from Rwanda – including the deployment of an estimated 4,000 Rwandan troops. The DRC accuses Rwanda of seeking control over key mineral zones, including coltan, gold and cobalt areas. President Tshisekedi has turned to Washington. The move highlights Kinshasa's effort to shift away from reliance on Chinese and Rwandan-backed operators in the mining sector. Peace talks in Doha between Kinshasa and M23 have stalled. The conflict could spill across borders and further destabilise the Great Lakes region. American firms have remained marginal players in the Congolese mining sector. At the start of December 2024 President Biden visited Angola to promote the Lobito Corridor – a $4bn rail and port project aimed at channelling copper and cobalt from central Africa – including the DRC – to global markets through the Port of Lobito, the Angola harbour located on the Atlantic Ocean. The corridor is a strategic alternative to Chinese-dominated logistics. An additional $600mn in funding was pledged during Biden’s visit, and US diplomats confirmed in April 2025 that financing remains on track. The goal is to streamline mineral exports from Zambia and southern DRC, improving transparency and making the region more attractive to Western investors. If successful, the corridor could shift trade patterns and reduce reliance on routes controlled by state-linked Chinese companies. It is unclear whether the Trump administration will back the project. Trump’s Africa advisers have favoured more direct exchanges – military or diplomatic support in return for resource access – and Tshisekedi’s proposal appears to follow that logic. The president's advisers have openly framed resource access as a foreign policy priority, particularly in countries where traditional development models have struggled. The Congolese side is pressing for clear timelines and deliverables. China has also announced plans to invest $1.4bn in the ageing railway that links Dar es Salaam in Tanzania with Zambia's Copperbelt. The investment was unveiled on 20 March 2025 during the Zambia International Mining and Energy Conference. Under a trilateral deal with Tanzania and Zambia, the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) will rehabilitate the 1,860-km TAZARA line over three years and operate it for 30 years. The agreement includes $1bn for infrastructure upgrades and $400mn for new rolling stock, including 32 locomotives and 762 wagons. Originally built with Chinese support in the 1970s to bypass white-ruled southern Africa, the TAZARA line remains a strategic outlet for Zambian copper exports via the Indian Ocean. It terminates at Kapiri Mposhi, connecting with Zambia's north-south rail grid and facilitating indirect freight access to the DRC. However, there is no dedicated spur from TAZARA into the DRC, and the upgraded route is not expected to extend across the border, the line passes within the logistical range of the DRC frontier. American companies remain cautious about operating in volatile jurisdictions without guarantees. Political risk insurance, development finance backing and credit support are likely prerequisites. Adesina, the co-founder and president of Sabi, a Nigerian company that connects African small-scale and artisanal miners with global buyers, said in a recent article in Semafor that the real opportunity lies in working with artisanal and small-scale miners in Africa, who play a crucial role in the global critical minerals supply chain. In the DRC, such small-scale operations contribute up to 30% of the world's cobalt supply. "Across the continent, two-thirds of lithium supplies come from small-scale miners, as does 60% of the global supply of tantalum, he writes. „The work of these operators could be boosted through targeted investment, transparent logistics and predictable payment structures that meet US regulatory and technical standards." He adds that The US government can help by establishing direct purchasing relationships and deploying financing and technical assistance. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Nigeria
20/04/2025  Attacks believed to have been carried out by nomadic cattle herders killed at least 56 people in the Ukum and Logo local government areas in central Nigeria in the Benue state in one night earlier this week. Two attacks by unidentified gunmen earlier this month in neighbouring Plateau state left more than 100 people dead. That figure could rise as search-and-rescue operations continue. Since 2019, the clashes have claimed more than 500 lives in the region and forced 2.2 million people to leave their homes. With many herders belonging to the Muslim Fulani ethnic group, and many farmers Christian, the attacks in Nigeria's so-called Middle Belt often take on a religious or ethnic dimension. Plateau state authorities have claimed the killings were part of a 'genocide' that was 'sponsored by terrorists'. (Source: France 24 „with AFP and Reuters”)

Asia

Afghanistan
April 19, 2025  Around half of the nearly one million pieces of weaponry and military equipment, which the Afghan Taliban obtained following the United States’ hasty departure in 2021, have been lost, sold or smuggled to militant group. (Source: Dawn - Pakistan)

China
April 18, 2025 The trade war worsens. Which is a really powerful form of geopolitical currency? China processes almost all the world’s rare earths, a group of 17 metals used in a wide array of products in the defense, health-care and technology sectors. But as part of its retaliation against escalating U.S. tariffs, Beijing this month restricted the export of several rare earth minerals, raising the risk that U.S. industries will face shortages. Many in Washington have focused on how the new Chinese regulations will affect the U.S. military products like missiles and drones. Beijing has banned the export of critical minerals used in the defense industry — but also for some cancer treatments and MRI exams. Critical rare earths have properties like heat resistance and magnetism that make them useful components of advanced technologies. China dominates the global supply chain because of its processing capability: About 90 percent of refined rare earths came from China in 2023. The second countries start to have disruptions to medical services or medical supplies, particularly for things like cancer care. China deploys carrots and sticks to persuade countries in Asia and Africa to take its side in the superpower standoff. Even if rare earths are mined in other countries, the materials are often sent to China for refining, according to Mei a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, which is affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce. Beijing has used this dominance for political purposes before. It blocked critical mineral exports to Japan in 2010 after a territorial dispute. It also banned exports to the United States of three critical metals - gallium, germanium and antimony, which are important components of electronics, fiber optics or semiconductors - last year after the Biden administration tightened China’s access to advanced technology. This month, Beijing imposed export restrictions on seven more rare earths, including gadolinium and yttrium, citing their dual use nature, meaning that the materials have both civilian and military applications. This applies to shipments globally, not just to the United States. Companies will now be required to apply for permission to export the metals from China, which could take up to 45 days, according to the Commerce Ministry. Curbing exports of rare earths, Mei said, is a targeted strategy to bring Trump to the negotiating table, “minimizing the impact on the economy and population of our trading partners.” Some worry that the impact won’t be minimal. Rare earths are a critical not only for diagnostics but also treatment. Americans suffering from brain tumors, liver cancer and heart attacks may find their medical care disrupted. The U.S. imports a large - and increasing - swath of Chinese medical goods, including antibiotics, pain relievers and bandages, as well as precursor chemicals required to make finished drugs. Chinese pharmaceutical exports to the United States grew 11 percent in 2024 to reach $19 billion. Trump pledged to implement tariffs on foreign-made pharmaceuticals. Gadolinium is used to produce a contrast fluid that is injected into some patients before MRI exams. The fluid helps doctors more easily diagnose brain tumors. It’s a very important agent to enhance contrast for MRI. There are no direct alternatives. The global biotech industry is following the new Chinese regulations closely. Bayer, a German pharmaceutical company that sells a contrast solution, said it is actively monitoring the situation. While the firm’s gadolinium originates in China, Bayer “utilizes a diverse network of suppliers of gadolinium around the world” and doesn’t expect “any immediate impact related to contrast supply for U.S. customers and patients” based on its current supply. Other rare earths on China’s restriction list, including lutetium and yttrium, are used in cancer drugs called radiopharmaceuticals and medical tools like lasers that shrink lung tumors. From 2020 to 2023, 93 percent of U.S. imports of yttrium compounds came from China. It has recently invested in expanding its radiopharmaceutical manufacturing. A subsidiary of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corp. unveiled a large production base in southwestern Sichuan in December, aimed at producing lutetium-based drugs for breast cancer and prostate cancer treatment, according to a company news release. It remains unclear exactly how the new regulations will filter into U.S. health-care supply chains. Some Chinese exporters are already feeling the change since the April 4 restrictions. Shanghai-based Greenearth Chemicals, which exports rare earth materials including gadolinium and yttrium for medical applications, had stopped all exports after the policy change. New Radiomedicine Technology, a company in Chengdu that is developing pharmaceuticals using rare earths, said it hadn’t begun exporting yet but selling overseas would now be impossible with the regulations. China’s export control authorities will fully consider the humanitarian needs of American patients, said Mei. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, an industry group, said in an April 6 statement that the export controls “will not affect regular business activities or normal corporate operation and trade.” Chinese suppliers will continue to strengthen the win-win cooperation with friendly countries, it said, unless the trading partner is engaged in activities that harm China’s national sovereignty, security and development interests. (Source: The Washington Post - U.S.)

April 18, 2025  While backing away from other levies on individual countries beyond the 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports to the United States announced earlier this month, Trump has imposed 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods. China has retaliated with its own 125 percent tariffs on imported American goods. Beijing may be better equipped to withstand the negative economic shocks caused by the tariffs. Trump's trade war with China could push the foreign creditor country-the second-largest holder of U.S. debt after Japan - to dump its Treasury holdings, sending mortgage rates skyrocketing for millions of Americans. China's President Xi has promised to fight the Trump administration's escalation of tariffs to the end - and there is a chance he might do so through a very dangerous weapon the country has in its arsenal as of early 2025: more than $760 billion in holdings in U.S. Treasury securities. Just weeks ago, the 10-year yield rose by 50 basis points to 4.49 percent, the biggest weekly jump since 2001. This happens when someone sells bonds-lots of them, in this case. While it is not known precisely where the spike in activity came from, its timing suggests that Beijing may have been behind it. About a decade ago, China used to hold even more U.S. debt, at over $1.3 trillion. Considering the ongoing trade war with the U.S., it is hard to predict what it could now do. China seems willing to sell U.S. treasuries, even if it means absorbing capital losses, Blanchard, the Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics emeritus at MIT, wrote in a post on X on April 10. There have been big movements in bonds overnight recently when the China market is open, and ours is closed, suggesting that China is selling U.S. treasuries. If there is a large sale, that could depress prices and increase yields, Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, told. According to Golara, an assistant professor of supply chain and operations management at Georgia State University's Robinson College of Business, the risk of a sudden, large-scale sell-off remains low, as such a move would damage China's own financial interests by devaluing its remaining holdings and destabilizing global currency markets. But Beijing could still use the threat of a treasury sale as a bargaining chip, he told. 'The broader risk lies in this gradual shift away from U.S. Treasuries'. Recent trends show China reallocating reserves into gold and other non-dollar assets, signaling a long-term diversification strategy, he said. A China-led sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds would have enormous consequences for the global and U.S. domestic markets. Treasuries are not just safe assets - they are the foundation of global finance, serving as pristine collateral in lending and trading, Golara said. 'If China off-loads a significant share of its holdings, Treasury prices would fall, yields would rise and the value of collateral would decline. This could trigger margin calls and forced liquidations across the world, accelerating financial stress and sell-offs,' he explained. Treasuries bonds are the risk-free benchmark in financial asset pricing, Golara said. If they are perceived as volatile or politically weaponized, their credibility erodes. As a result, discount rates would rise globally, reducing the present value of future earnings and dragging down asset prices across the board-stocks, real estate, corporate bonds, and more, he said. 'A loss of confidence in Treasuries could also accelerate global diversification away from dollar assets, putting the U.S. reserve currency status at risk.' In the U.S., rising Treasury yields would mean higher borrowing costs for the federal government and businesses, tighter financial conditions, and a heavier fiscal burden. "With about 36 trillion of US government debt outstanding, the interest on the debt weighs heavily on the federal budget," Golara said. If bond yields rise, the U.S. could have compounding troubles in paying interest on the debt, leading to larger budget deficits. Mortgage rates-which closely track the 10-year Treasury yield-would also climb as a result of a possible sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by China, further weakening an already fragile housing market and dampening consumer spending. These effects could magnify recessionary pressures, Golara said. For China, a sudden sell-off of U.S. Treasuries would also be extremely costly, increasing the value of its currency and, thus, the cost of Chinese exports even further. "First, if they do this, this amounts to a capital war, not just a trade war. And they risk fierce retaliation by the U.S.," Golara said. "Also a stronger yuan would hurt export competitiveness, reduce the value of its remaining reserves, and introduce instability into its own economy. Ultimately, a Treasury sell-off would inflict mutual economic damage, and turmoil in the broader global system," he said. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, told that the risk of China weaponizing its U.S. Treasury holdings is overhyped and overblown. China's real weapon, Hanke said, is the uncertainty that [Beijing] can create with its large Treasury holdings. Investors are worried about a 'sudden Chinese Treasury dump, he said. "However, such a dump could backfire on the People's Bank of China's exchange rate management regime, which is a sensitive operation that is enhanced by low volatility". As a result, China's weaponization of its U.S. debt holdings is much ado about nothing. The real risk of weaponization, he said, is in the United States' hands. 'The United States Treasury could simply decide to cancel China's debt holdings, although this would have drastic consequences for the Treasury market, broader financial markets and the U.S. economy.' During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised to bring down mortgage rates, which have remained historically high since the Federal Reserve began its aggressive rate-hiking campaign to combat inflation in 2022. As of April 10, mortgage rates on 30-year fixed home loans averaged 6.62 percent. While mortgage rates have been declining recently due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump's tariffs on the market, an increase linked to the U.S.-China trade war is likely to make the president take a step back. The only keys to the exit door from this trade war "are in President Trump's desk drawer," added Hanke, who served on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers. 'At present, it appears that Trump has no intention of abandoning what is probably the dumbest economic policy move of the last century,' he added. 'In fact, the last time beggar-thy-neighbor policies were embraced was at the onset of the Great Depression, when Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which crashed the stock market and drove the U.S. into a catastrophic economic plunge.' (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

(17 April 2025)  US says Chinese firm is helping Houthis target American warships. Satellite company linked to People’s Liberation Army has supplied images to Iran-backed group in Yemen, say officials. The Trump administration has repeatedly warned Beijing that Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co Ltd, a commercial group with ties to the People’s Liberation Army is supplying Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen with imagery to target US warships and international vessels in the Red Sea. CGSTL has previously come under US scrutiny, and was among groups hit by sanctions in 2023 for allegedly providing high-resolution satellite imagery to Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary army. The Chinese company was established in 2014 as a joint venture between the provincial government in Jilin and a branch of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Changchun, the province’s capital. Chang Guang is one of a handful of ‘ostensibly’ commercial Chinese satellite companies that are in fact deeply embedded in the military-civil fusion ecosystem, supplying global surveillance capabilities to both civilian and military customers, said Mulvenon, an expert on the Chinese military and intelligence services at Pamir Consulting. Under China’s military-civil fusion programme, companies must share technology with the PLA when ordered by the government. Bruzzese, a China defence expert at BluePath Labs, a consulting firm that works with the US government, last year said CGSTL had 100 satellites in orbit, although it plans to have 300 by the end of 2025 which would enable it to take repeat images of any location in the world every 10 minutes. Bruzzese said CGSTL had close connections to the Chinese government, communist party and military. Bruzzese added that CGSTL had provided briefings to senior Chinese officials about its applications, including those for military intelligence and had demonstrated its technology before several top PLA officers, including Zhang, the top general in the Chinese military who is second-in-command after President Xi. The concern about CGSTL comes amid a deepening trade war between the Washington and Beijing. Trump has made tackling Red Sea instability a priority, amid concerns that the Houthis continue to pose a threat to the global economy. US concerns about CGSTL come as the Pentagon increasingly focuses on Chinese military activity in space. (Source: Financial Times - United Kingdom)

April 11, 2025  China today escalated tariffs on imports from the United States to 125 percent, in response to U.S. President Trump's punishing regime against Chinese goods higher and higher to 145 percent earlier this week in response to what it alleges is Beijing’s complicity in the flow of fentanyl to the U.S. If the U.S. insists on continuing to substantially infringe on China’s interests, China will resolutely counterattack and fight to the end, Beijing's economic mandarins said. While other countries have been granted a 90-day partial reprieve on the so-called reciprocal tariffs - with a 10 percent baseline remaining - China was excluded. (Source: Politico - based in U.S., owned by a German company)

April 11, 2025  During a today meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in Beijing, China’s leader Xi called on the EU to join forces against the U.S, telling Sánchez that there are no winners in a trade war, and going against the world will only lead to self-isolation. Xi urged China and the EU to jointly safeguard the trend of economic globalization and a fair international trade environment, and jointly resist unilateral and intimidating practices. (Source: Politico - based in U.S., owned by a German company)

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Gaza
(19 April 2025)  Israel’s continuous blockade of Gaza has been disastrous for all areas of life in the Strip. (Video/) /Source: The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) - Headquarters New York, U.S. Geneva, Switzerland/
by Whittall - an official with UN OCHA -  from Rafah, in southern Gaza.

Iran
(Sunday), April 20 2025  On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio urged European countries to decide whether to trigger the snapback mechanism under the 2015 agreement, which would automatically reinstate UN sanctions on Iran over its non-compliance. The option to trigger the mechanism expires in October. Iran currently enriches uranium up to 60 percent, far above the 3.67 percent limit in the deal but still below the 90 percent threshold required for weapons-grade material. On Friday U.S. ally Israel affirmed its commitment to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, saying it had a clear course of action to do so - a stance Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated yesterday. ’I will not give up on this, I will not let go of it, and I will not retreat from it - not even by a millimetre,’ he said. Iran’s FM Araghchi said yesterday the U.S. side had not raised any issues unrelated to the nuclear topic so far. The United States and Iran made progress in a second round of high-stakes talks on Tehran's nuclear programme yesterday and agreed to meet again next week, both sides said. The Oman-mediated talks in Rome lasted about four hours. After yesterday's talks, Oman's foreign ministry said Araghchi and U.S. Middle East envoy Witkoff had agreed to keep negotiating. The talks, it said, "aim to seal a fair, enduring and binding deal which will ensure Iran (is) completely free of nuclear weapons and sanctions, and maintaining its ability to develop peaceful nuclear energy". Oman said the third round would be (on April 26) in Muscat, returning to the site of the first talks a week ago. (Source: Huriyet Daily News - Turkey)

4/19/2025  President Trump is calling for Iran to “go fast” to secure a new nuclear accord. U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff has said the Trump administration’s red line is to prevent Iran from being able to produce a nuclear weapon. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi said this week the Iranians 'aren’t far away' from being able to do it. Grossi called on Iran to step up cooperation to show its nuclear program is peaceful. There are critical gaps in the world’s understanding of Iran’s nuclear inventory. Tehran in recent years has restricted United Nations atomic agency oversight of its nuclear activities - a key requirement under the 2015 accord, and stifled an agency probe into undeclared nuclear material found in the country. At various points, it has removed cameras intended to monitor key parts of its nuclear infrastructure and effectively banned inspectors from those sites. Iran has stopped the agency from inspecting nonnuclear sites since 2021, curtailing the IAEA’s insight into Iran’s ability to build a bomb. The IAEA has since September 2023 said that it no longer has fully updated information about a range of Iran’s nuclear work and can’t confirm Tehran’s claim that its program is purely for peaceful purposes. U.S. intelligence officials said last month they don’t believe Iran has made a decision to build a nuclear weapon but U.S. officials think it would only take a few months for Tehran to build one. U.S. and Iranian officials convened in Rome for a second round of discussions today, after meeting in Muscat last weekend. This weekend’s talks are expected to include discussion on a timeline for negotiations and potentially a general framework for a new deal, U.S. and Iranian officials have indicated. “Trump’s given a two-month deadline to get a deal done,” said Albright, a former weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security think tank. “Iran needs to start cooperating more fully with the IAEA in order to develop confidence that any deal is water-tight.” The U.S. and European powers have repeatedly called on Iran to step up its cooperation with the agency in recent years. They have censured Iran for not doing so at the IAEA three times since November 2022. The critical gap in IAEA knowledge of Iran’s nuclear program is Iran’s inventory of centrifuges, machines that spin uranium into higher levels of enrichment. In 2021, three years after the Trump administration quit the nuclear deal, Iran stopped handing over to the agency footage and measurements from the cameras installed at the facilities. Later that year, following an attack on its Karaj centrifuge site, which Tehran blamed on Israel, Iran went several months without cameras monitoring its centrifuge production. Iran removed cameras monitoring its centrifuge sites again in June 2022. It only started to replace some a year later. The IAEA still has frequent access to Iran’s two enrichment sites and is confident Iran hasn’t diverted fissile material from them. However, the agency said in February that it has 'lost continuity of knowledge' of Iran’s production and inventory of centrifuges and their key parts: rotors and bellows. Would it retain a critical component of its ability to produce weapons-grade enriched uranium? The agency can carry out a range of inspections which could take as much as six months, and it is unlikely to get a complete picture. Trump has warned he would hit Iran militarily if it refuses a deal. On Thursday he denied he had waved off an Israeli attack to strike Iran’s nuclear plants but said he is “not in a rush to do it.” Iran must settle another issue before a deal can be implemented: resolving ’an IAEA probe into undeclared nuclear material’ found in Iran, likely originated in past nuclear weapons work Iran did in the 1990s and 2000s. Tehran has repeatedly denied it has ever conducted such work. ’Without detailing why it has the material and where it is now’, Iran may not be able to close down the probe. (Source: MSN / The Wall Street Journal = U. S.)

(Thursday), April 17, 2025  The United Nations nuclear watchdog chief Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). warned yesterday that Iran was not far from possessing a nuclear bomb, shortly before he arrived in Tehran for talks. “It’s like a puzzle. They have the pieces, and one day they could eventually put them together,” Grossi told yesterday. He arrived yesterday in Tehran and met Foreign Minister. Araghch and Eslami, who heads Iran’s nuclear energy agency. Grossi’s visit comes ahead of a second round of talks between Iran and the United States on Saturday. Earlier, Araghchi said Iran’s enrichment of uranium under its nuclear programme was non-negotiable after US Middle East envoy Witkoff called for it to end. “We are ready to build confidence in response to possible concerns, but the issue of enrichment is non-negotiable.' His remarks came after Witkoff said on Tuesday that Iran must stop and eliminate enriching uranium as part of any nuclear deal. The day before, Witkoff had urged only that Iran return to the 3.67% enrichment ceiling set by its 2015 accord with major powers. In its latest report, the IAEA said Iran had an estimated 274.8 kilos of uranium enriched to up to 60%. That level still falls short of the 90% threshold required for a nuclear warhead. Ahead of Saturday’s new round of talks, Araghchi condemned what he called the Trump administration’s contradictory and conflicting positions. He said he hoped to start negotiations on the framework of a possible agreement, but that this required constructive positions from the United States. Yesterday, Iranian state media said Saturday’s talks would be held in Rome with Omani mediation, as an Italian spokesman also confirmed the location. However, US and Iranian officials have not officially confirmed the venue. (Source: Gulf Times - Qatar)

Apr 12, 2025  “The current focus of the talks will be de-escalating regional tensions, prisoner exchanges and limited agreements to ease sanctions (against Iran) in exchange for controlling Iran’s nuclear programme,” an Omani source told. Iran and the US held talks in Oman today and agreed to reconvene next week, the Iranian side said. “After the end of more than 2½ hours of indirect talks, the heads of the Iranian and American delegations spoke for a few minutes in the presence of the Omani foreign minister as they left the talks, it said. Failure would aggravate fears of a wider conflagration across a region that exports much of the world’s oil. Iran has ruled out negotiating its defence capabilities such as its missile programme. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore )

Apr 12, 2025  The Iranian negotiating team consists of the top Iranian diplomat, Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Ravanchi, and Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Gharibabadi. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Baghaei, is also accompanying the negotiating delegation. The Iranian delegation arrived in Muscat, the capital of Oman, today morning. In 2018 and during his first term in office, US President Trump withdrew the United States from a previous agreement on Iran’s nuclear program – formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – and launched a maximum pressure campaign against the country. Trump restored that policy after returning to the White House for a second term in January, but he has since signaled a willingness to make a new deal to replace the JCPOA. Iran has ruled out direct negotiations with the US under pressure and threats but says indirect talks remain an option. (Source: MEHR News - Iran)

2025-04-12  Iranian officials said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has given Foreign Minister Araghchi full authority to lead the negotiations, while US Middle East envoy Witkoff is set to lead the American side. National Security Council senior official Trager and nuclear experts from the US State Department will also participate in the discussions. Witkoff has conveyed that the US seeks a diplomatic resolution while ensuring Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons. He told that Washington’s red line remains to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb and that dismantling Tehran’s nuclear program is a key demand. Tehran insists its nuclear activities are solely for peaceful purposes, but Western nations argue that its uranium enrichment has exceeded civilian needs - enrichment levels have reached 60%, approaching weapons-grade material. Israel, a close US ally, continues to view Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and has warned it would act militarily if diplomacy fails. Iran enters the talks under pressure, with its regional influence diminished in recent months. It’s military capabilities and its warnings to US bases in the region could strengthen its negotiating position. (Source: Shafaq News - Iraq)

April 12, 2025  US special envoy Witkoff is set for talks today with an Iranian delegation in Oman. Iranian state media said Iran would be represented by Foreign Minister Araqchi, with Omani Foreign Minister Busaidi as intermediary. Ahead of talks today between US and Iranian delegations. Trump in February restored his 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran, which includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero, in order to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He said earlier this week that if the talks are unsuccessful, 'Iran is going to be in great danger.' Yesterday, White House press secretary Leavitt said Trump's "ultimate objective is to ensure that Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon" and that Trump believes in diplomacy, but that 'all options are on the table' if diplomatic efforts fail. „You can agree to President Trump's demand, or there will be all hell to pay, and that's how the president feels’, Leavitt said. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Syria
April 17, 2025  Operation Assad. As his enemies closed in on Damascus, Assad used a private jet to spirit away cash, valuables and confidential documents mapping the corporate web behind his wealth. Ibrahim, who ran the economic and financial office of the presidency arranged the leasing of the plane to transport Assad's treasured assets, relatives, aides and presidential palace personnel to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) aboard four flights. The Embraer Legacy 600 jet made the four back-to-back trips to Syria in the 48 hours before the regime's fall. The plane, which has the tail number C5-SKY, is registered in Gambia. The fourth flight departed on Dec 8 from the Russian-operated Hmeimim military air base, near Latakia, on Syria's Mediterranean coast. Assad fled to Russia on the same day from the same base. The jet carried unmarked black bags of cash holding at least US$500,000 as well as documents, laptops and hard drives with key intelligence about "The Group", the codename Assad and Ibrahim's associates used for the intricate network of entities spanning telecoms, banking, real estate, energy and other activities. Assad’s whereabouts was kept secret from even close family members in the last frantic days of his regime. On Dec 6, as rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham marched towards the capital, the 13-seater Embraer jet approached Damascus International Airport. More than a dozen staff in the camouflage uniforms of Syria's Air Force Intelligence, mobilised to guard the Hall of Ceremonies, the airport's VIP section, and its access route. A handful of civilian cars with tinted windows approached the area. The cars belonged to the elite Republican Guard, tasked to protect Assad and the Presidential Palace. The guard answered only to its commander, Assad's cousin General Makhlouf, or Assad himself. The head of airport security, Brigadier-General Ali, told airport staff that Air Force Intelligence personnel would handle the aircraft. "You have not seen this plane." Ali, a senior Air Force Intelligence officer, took orders directly from the Presidential Palace. The C5-SKY plane flew each time to Abu Dhabi's Al Bateen Executive Airport, used by dignitaries and known for its strict privacy, Flightradar24 data show. At first, the jet left Dubai on Dec 6 and landed in Damascus around noon. It then flew to Al Bateen airport and was back in Damascus just after 10pm. Each time it landed, cars rushed towards the plane, staying for a short time. Ali told Air Force Intelligence staff that Presidential Palace personnel and relatives of Assad - including teenagers - were due to board the first two flights that left Damascus on Dec 6, which also carried cash. The second flight from Damascus also transported paintings and some small sculptures. On Dec 7, the jet was back in Damascus around 4pm and left for Al Bateen for a third time over an hour later, this time loaded with bags of cash as well as hard drives and electronic devices containing information about Assad's corporate network. The stored information included financial records, minutes of meetings, ownership of companies, real estate and partnerships, as well as details of cash transfers and offshore companies and accounts. This time, vehicles belonging to the UAE embassy in Damascus approached the VIP airport area before the jet took off. Early on Dec 8, rebel fighters reached Damascus, prompting Assad to flee for his coastal stronghold of Latakia, in coordination with Russian forces. Damascus airport stopped operating. Shortly after midnight that day, the C5-SKY jet left Al Bateen one last time. After passing over the city of Homs, north of Damascus, at around 3am local time, the plane dropped off flight tracking coverage for about six hours before reappearing over Homs, headed back to Abu Dhabi, data from Flightradar24 show. During that window, it landed at the Hmeimim base in the Latakia province. A satellite image taken at 9.11am by Planet Labs captured the plane on the runway at Hmeimim. The jet was the only private plane flying in and out of Syria between Dec 6 and Dec 8, flight tracking data show. Aboard the flight from Hmeimim was Khalil, a close associate of Ibrahim active inside Assad's network. Khalil is under Western sanctions for supporting the former regime by operating and controlling several businesses in Syria. He had reached the Russian base in an Emirati embassy armoured car and was carrying $500,000 in cash. Khalil had withdrawn the money two days earlier from an account with the Syria International Islamic Bank (SIIB). The account belongs to Damascus-based Al-Burj Investments. The company is 50 per cent owned by Ibrahim. The Embraer jet was operating under a 'dry lease', in which the owner provides the aircraft, but no crew, pilot, maintenance, ground operations or insurance. Ibrahim reached Abu Dhabi on Dec 11. Ibrahim leased the jet from Lebanese businessman Wehbe. In the WhatsApp conversation the jet was described by one of Ibrahim's associates as the Lebanese plane. (Source: AsiaOne – Singapore / Reuters - United Kingdom)

Turkey
April 15, 2025  Turkey’s interior minister Yerlikaya announced today a massive operation into organized crime in five countries that led to over 200 arrests, primarily in Turkey. “This morning, a total of 234 high-level members of an organized crime group were detained, nine of whom were abroad and 225 were at home,” he told. Simultaneous raids were carried out in the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Belgium and Turkey. Officials shared documents and intelligence with a number of countries, including France and Britain. Some 21.2 tons of drugs were confiscated, the minister said. Turkish authorities targeted four international organized crime groups as part of the operation. “These criminal organizations were seeking to ship cocaine to our country and Europe by sea and land from South American countries and heroin from Iran and Afghanistan, skunk cannabis through the Balkans and ecstasy through Europe,” Yerlikaya said. (Source: Turkish Minute - Turkey / Agence France-Presse)

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United States
Apr 20, 2025  The Trump administration attempts to choke off exports of strategically important computer chips to China. Silicon Valley semiconductor star Nvidia is one of the most important pieces in this (US) chess game with China. Nvidia and its US rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) expect big financial hits from new US licensing requirements for semiconductors exported to China, they notified US Securities and Exchange Commission this week. Nvidia expects the new rules to cost it US$5.5 billion, while AMD has forecast they could sap as much as US$800 million from the company’s bottom line, according to filings. Administration officials told Nvidia it must obtain licences to export its H20 chips to China because of concerns they may be used in supercomputers there, the company said. The United States has already restricted exports to China, the world’s biggest buyer of chips, of Nvidia’s most sophisticated graphics processing units (GPUs), designed to power top-end artificial intelligence models. Nvidia essentially developed the H20 chip for the Chinese market. The new licensing requirements pose a roadblock. For AMD, the new US export control measure applies to its MI308 GPUs, which are designed for high-performance applications like gaming and artificial intelligence, it said in a filing. It noted that there is no guarantee licences for sales to China will be granted. Independent tech analyst Enderle predicted Chinese chip makers – likely led by tech behemoth Huawei – will ramp up efforts to snatch the lead in the market. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore)

04/18/25  President Trump’s top economic adviser Hassett, chair of the White House National Economic Council, told yesterday the White House is exploring how to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell despite the legal guardrails on his position. Hassett served as the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump’s first term. A 90-year-old Supreme Court precedent likely protects Powell from being fired by the president for anything other than misconduct or severe neglect of office. The Fed chief is a lifelong Republican whom Trump himself appointed to the job in February 2018 and presided over four rate hikes, three of which were reversed the following year. (Source: The Hill - U.S.)

April 18, 2025  President Trump’s meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. /Video/ (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Friday, 18 April 2025  Trump said the US is considering backing out of the peace process, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are “coming to a head” and insisted that neither side is “playing” him. It follows comments by US Secretary of State Rubio, who said earlier today, following talks in Paris among US, Ukrainian and European officials that the US may be ready to move on from efforts to secure a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine if progress is not made within the coming days. Rubio issued the same warning in a phone call today with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, telling him that if a clear path to peace does not emerge soon, the United States will step back from efforts to broker peace. Another meeting is expected next week in London, and Rubio suggested it could be decisive in determining whether the Trump administration continues its involvement. Trump told reporters today that he backed Rubio's remarks but that he remained "hopeful" that a peace deal could be reached. “Now, if for some reason, one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say you’re foolish. You are fools, you horrible people,” he said. “And we’re going to just take a pass. But hopefully, we won’t have to do that”. When asked about Rubio’s comments today, Kremlin spokesman Peskov told reporters that fairly complex negotiations are ongoing between Russia and the US. He said no direct talks between Trump and Putin are scheduled in the coming days. Trump said “Marco is right” that the dynamic of the negotiations must change, but stopped short of saying he's ready to walk away from peace negotiations. “Well, I don’t want to say that,” Trump said. “But we want to see it end.” (Source: ITV – United Kingdom)

16 April 2025  „Trump puts nuclear weapons on the agenda. The world should listen”. The US President has again stated his decades-long-held belief that he could strike a deal to rid the world of nuclear weapons. Trump has a dim view not only of the threat posed by the possession of nuclear weapons, but also the waste involved in keeping them. “We’re all spending a lot of money that we could be spending on other things that are actually, hopefully, much more productive,” he said in February, soon after returning to office. Trump failed during his first term to seriously engage with Russia on a nuclear control treaty (New START expires in 2026), or to influence his “friend” North Korean leader Kim whose arsenal has grown exponentially. Neither did Trump find an alternative to Obama’s Iran nuclear deal. But the point is that he took a personal interest in each. Trump may try again. But he would do so in the face of a belligerent Putin ’who has threatened to drop a nuclear bomb on Ukraine’ – the likes of which had not been heard since the Cuban missile crisis. In addition, by 2035, China may have 1500 nuclear warheads with world-class delivery systems – missiles, bomber aircraft and submarines – according to US estimates. American nuclear expert Gottemoeller recently outlined during a visit to Australia and in a speech at the Lowy Institute, a window of opportunity may open amid the global trauma. The nuclear triumvirate of the United States, Russia and China could work on parallel tracks to advance nuclear reductions (US and Russia) and secure measures of nuclear control (China). The US and Russia would publicly assure the world they will continue to abide by New START’s deployed nuclear warhead cap of around 1,550 each, and 800 delivery vehicles each. Meanwhile over the decade – such negotiations will take years – China’s total arsenal could be within reach of 1500 nuclear warheads, deployed and not deployed. The three would thus be closer to parity, although US and Russian arsenals, comprising deployed and non-deployed warheads and delivery vehicles, would be greater – thus continuing to provide the strategic equilibrium achieved under successive bilateral arms limitation treaties since the height of the Cold War when their stockpiles measured over 32,000 for the US and 46,000 for Russia. Russia and the United States have led global verification work for decades but confidence among other allies and partners increases with transparency in this meticulous process. The accounting, reductions and limitations of warheads and delivery systems must entail verification that the countries concerned have done what they have promised. Russia and the United States have led global verification work for decades but confidence among other allies and partners increases with transparency in this meticulous process. Although others are unlikely to invited to join in, the actions of Russia and the US could generate conditions for China – with state media previously asserting that its nuclear silos visible from space were in fact windmills – to deduce that the time has arrived to be more transparent and reiterate its adherence to adequate controls. Talks on a New START replacement treaty could also be possible after in parallel with a process to halt the war in Ukraine. Achieving these steps would send an electric current through the world of nuclear watchers. Commentary in Europe, Japan and South Korea is growing along lines previously unthinkable – that their countries should build their own nuclear weapons to fill any void opening in the US extended nuclear deterrent guarantee to its allies. The triumvirate would put paid to murmurings by other countries with nuclear weapons that they need to further build their arsenals. A tough appraisal of each of the three countries’ fundamental interests: The critical point is that the US, Russia and China all adhere to the belief that nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to humanity. /Source: The United States Studies Centre (USSC) - Australia/
by Hardy, a former Australian senior career diplomat and Australian Government official. Over three decades, she served in seven Australian embassies in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States and Europe, four at ambassador level.

April 15, 2025  Zelensky told CBS's 60 Minutes program that he believes 'Russian narratives are prevailing in the U.S.' and that he understood Vance to be 'somehow justifying [Russian President] Putin's actions' by presenting Ukraine as an aggressor, too. "I've also tried to apply strategic recognition that if you want to end the conflict, you have to try to understand where both the Russians and the Ukrainians see their strategic objectives," Vance told an interview with UnHerd published today morning. "That doesn't mean you morally support the Russian cause, or that you support the full-scale invasion, but you do have to try to understand what are their strategic red lines, in the same way that you have to try to understand what the Ukrainians are trying to get out of the conflict." He added: "I think it's sort of absurd for Zelensky to tell the [American] government, which is currently keeping his entire government and war effort together, that we are somehow on the side of the Russians." Vance said Zelensky's rhetoric "is certainly not productive". (Source: Miami Herald - U.S.)

(15 April, 2025)  Trump administration freezes $2.2 billion in grants and $60 million in contracts Harvard funding, for refusal to curb campus activism, combating antisemitism, reforming university governance, admissions and hiring practices. (Source: Scroll - India)

Tue 15 Apr 2025  ’The Silicon Six’ American tech firms - Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Netflix, Apple and Microsoft - generated $11tn of revenue and $2.5tn of profits in the past decade. They have been accused of avoiding almost $278bn in US corporation income taxes over 10 years. (Source: The Guardian - United Kingdom)

Apr 15, 2025  The Federal Reserve is resisting pressure from the White House and Washington to spur big banks to buy more Treasury bonds. Still, the Fed isn’t accelerating regulatory changes that would encourage banks to load up on government debt, even though Treasury Secretary Bessent and JPMorgan CEO Dimon both support the idea. Wild swings in Treasury prices forced President Trump to reverse course on his sweeping tariffs, and investors remain spooked even after his backtrack. (Source: Semafor – website; it’s organization based in New York City, U.S.)

Apr 14, 2025  On March 21, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that U.S. shell companies and their owners can once again conceal their identities. Critics warn the move could weaken national security and spur illicit financial activity that puts the American public at risk. Treasury’s initial beneficial ownership information (BOI) disclosure requirement for all companies with less than 20 employees garnered bipartisan support and Trump’s approval during his first administration. But it was short-lived. American beneficial owners of foreign shell companies that register in the U.S. have been granted anonymity. Arms traffickers are one of the many malicious actors who have used U.S.-based shell companies to their benefit. Bout, a former Soviet intelligence officer turned 'merchant of death' is the kingpin of examples. Extradited to the United States in 2010 to stand trial on terrorism charges, Bout utilized a global network of shell companies, including 12 companies incorporated in Delaware, Florida, and Texas, to facilitate weapons trafficking to armed groups in Africa, Colombia, Afghanistan, the Middle East, and elsewhere. 'Bout may be the poster boy for U.S. shell companies engaged in black market arms sales, but he is only the tip of the iceberg', explained Austin, Executive Director of the Conflict Awareness Project. From a U.S. company in Maine tied to a Mauritius arms trafficking operation, to the convicted arms traffickers Soghanalian and Acelor who facilitated weapons air drops to the FARC rebels in Colombia, the shell game is what they were banking on - however unsuccessful in these instances - to hide from investigators’ eyes. And hide they do. U.S. shell companies have been successfully used as cover for illegal arms sales for decades. Asked during his confirmation process in January if anonymous shell companies pose threats to national security and public safety, in the final ruling, Secretary Bessent cited President Trump’s Executive Order 14192, entitled “Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation” and the administration’s policy to significantly reduce the private expenditures required to comply with Federal regulations to secure America's economic prosperity and national security as the reasoning behind the ruling. The original BOI requirements enjoyed widespread public approval. Now with only foreign nationals forced to register BOI, U.S. citizens may be used as legal fronts for international entities looking to benefit from the U.S.’s financial system and it wouldn't be the first time. According to investigations conducted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, some Pentagon suppliers have used U.S. front companies to win manufacturing bids. The contractors have obscured the fact that they were making U.S. military equipment abroad, risking equipment quality as well as national security while defrauding the U.S. out of millions of dollars. In one case, a contractor who used a U.S. shell company was secretly manufacturing safety gear for F-15 fighter jets in India while illegally exporting 'technical drawings for aircraft parts, nuclear submarine torpedo systems and attack helicopters.' Financial secrecy facilitates illicit activities, including defrauding the U.S. government. 'America’s retreat from leading efforts to uncover these shadowy financial networks is an unforced error that enriches and empowers our worst enemies,' warned Sibley, fellow and director of Hudson Institute’s Kleptocracy Initiative. „Treasury Secretary Bessent should reverse this interim ruling so that the American public and the U.S. financial system can enjoy more thorough protection against criminal actors who seek to hide their activities behind opaque American shell companies”. (Source: Responsible Statecraft - U.S.)
by Gate, a Research Intern with the Democratizing Foreign Policy program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft who holds a Master of Laws (LLM) from City University Law School, London. Her research focuses on the nexus between international law and U.S. foreign policy.

April 14, 2025  You cannot defend the United States from Texas or North Carolina or Florida only, former Commanding General of US Army Europe (2014–2017) Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Hodges said when asked about the role of US military bases on the continent. US forces are not in Europe to protect Europeans, he says. You have to have forward presence and forward capability to project air, sea, and land power, not just in Europe, the Mediterranean, Central and Eastern Europe, but into Africa, the Middle East, and the Arctic. Which US bases in Europe does he consider most critical for military operations on and beyond the continent? „It should be based on a strategic analysis that says: here’s our priorities, here’s our resources, here’s what we need”. But you still should be thinking about what risk you are taking and what you would lose. „We have such a small footprint in Europe, and we only have one of everything”. ’We had almost 300,000 troops during the Cold War, mostly in West Germany, Italy, and Turkey. We don’t need that anymore. Almost all of those bases have been turned over”. There are different arrangements on who pays for what. „We can’t just assume that we’re going to put a naval base in Italy or Greece and that they have to accept it. These are sovereign nations”. You need trust. Intelligence sharing is also a big factor. The intelligence capabilities are not just based on American satellites, but on ground stations inside European countries, strong intelligence sharing and bilateral agreements with countries like Germany and Poland. And, of course, you need headquarters to manage everything. „You could forget dominating the Mediterranean or being able to project power into Africa if you don’t have the access that we get from Italy, Spain, Greece, and Turkey. Most of the US Navy in Europe is based in Rota, Spain. The headquarters is in Naples. And we have Crete. That’s an important part of the Navy’s ability to protect our interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. The distances, maintenance, fuel, and all the stuff required to do what they do are based on having these airports and seaports. If you want to have sea power in the Mediterranean to help protect our interests, you have to have a presence”. This is huge money, and you have to have existing contracts and the maintenance when the ship pulls in. And what is the importance of the Eastern flank for overall US security? ’The ability to get there for deterrence’. If the missile defense systems in Poland and Romania were to close, what global threats would become more challenging for the US to counter? ’We brought back the Army Preposition Stock, in Europe, equipment for an armored division stored in Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Mihail Kogălniceanu (MK) Airbase, for example, in Romania, has developed over the last 10 years as a power projection platform into the Black Sea because of the airfield there, but also the troops that are there, the headquarters, the maintenance, the contracts, all of that. That’s the best place on the Black Sea for the United States. It’s also where NATO’s Black Sea air police mission flies from. It would leave a huge hole for the United States if we left MK. Now, of course, it’s a Romanian base. We are a tenant there. The French or the Brits could be there. I don’t know how that helps advance America’s interest, but the capabilities could eventually be replaced by another ally. In Poland, of course - where it sits on the map - being there with our Polish allies, right in the middle of where, if there was going to be a Russian attack somewhere, US forces could respond, be based at the V Corps headquarters in Poznan. It’s there to provide the leadership, command, and control for all the US forces on the Eastern flank. If you close that down, then you’ve got to come up with another way to provide that”. „Going back to President Obama, they wanted to shift out to the Pacific more. And then, of course, Russia had different plans. Russia invaded Ukraine, and we had to stop. It’s interesting to me that all the stuff that Russia has done happened after the US downsized, handed over bases, sent all the tanks home, and reduced our ability to deter and defend because we thought we’d never have to do this again. We thought it was over. But we don’t have unlimited resources. If the administration makes the strategic decision to prioritize the Indo-Pacific region, which is legitimate and is the prerogative of any administration to do that, then they have to start looking at, okay, what do they cut? My guess is that what gets cut first will be the rotational forces because that’s a lot of money. They use assets that already exist in Poland, Germany, and Lithuania. So if they’re cut, we’d lose capability, but you wouldn’t necessarily have to get rid of bases. If the Army as a whole, as I think it is going to happen, is going to take a major cut, then for sure, US Army Europe will be a billpayer. But because there’s only one of everything, one signal brigade, one artillery brigade, one air defense battalion, one combat striker unit, one airborne, one aviation, if you get rid of any of those, that’s a capability that’s gone. But I’d have to say that everything is on the table here”. Russia and China would watch to see US-based closure and troop withdrawals from Europe whether Europe could fill that gap, or if the US does something to mitigate that risk. Keeping in mind that US forces are not in Europe to protect Europeans. „They’re there for our strategic interests”. „As our presence in Europe gets smaller, the language from the administration downplays the importance of our European allies. Less people appreciate the benefit of forward presence in Europe and how we benefit from intelligence sharing and access. There’s always talk about the Arctic. There are several NATO allies in the Arctic, and you can’t replace that by seizing Greenland. It’s having the presence that the UK allows us to have, Iceland allows us to have, or Norway. There’s not much that we have in Europe that are needed in the Pacific from the army. „So, the administration would have to be asking Europe to protect our interests”. /Source: Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) – with offices in Washington, D.C., U.S. and Warsaw, Poland/.

April 12, 2025  Witkoff travelled to Russia yesterday to meet Putin and is expected in the Middle East for talks with Iran today, effectively leading yet another top priority national security assignment. Witkoff and Trump still maintain a strong personal relationship, according to multiple people familiar with their relationship. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore)

Friday, April 11, 2025  Illegal production and distribution of deadly fentanyl netted traffickers an estimated $1.4 billion in 2024, most of which was funneled through U.S. banks, according to the report by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). It said the estimate is based on 1,246 bank secrecy reports about suspected fentanyl-related activity. 57% of the suspicious bank reports on fentanyl trafficking originated from U.S. banks, savings and loan associations, or credit unions. A total of 32% came from check cashing, money orders, or similar services. “Mexico and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the top two foreign countries identified in subject address fields of [Bank Secrecy Act] reports analyzed, play key roles in the production of fentanyl and subsequent money laundering activity,” the report, made public on Wednesday, said. The 1970 Bank Secrecy Act requires financial institutions to report suspicious activity and transactions over $10,000. The operations of the fentanyl trade involve chemical brokers using front companies, money mules and U.S.-based intermediaries who buy fentanyl precursor chemicals from Chinese suppliers. Chinese chemical suppliers use e-commerce platforms to market fentanyl precursor chemicals. Payments were traced to bank wire transfers and online electronic funds transfers. The traffickers mainly deal in cash and peer-to-peer transfers. Other drug deals bitcoin payments, including suspected Darknet marketplace drug sales. Some of the money laundering of fentanyl proceeds took place through professional Chinese money laundering organizations that potentially facilitated the movement of illicit fentanyl proceeds on behalf of the cartels. Chinese groups rely on underground banking that allows Chinese nationals to acquire dollars in the U.S. while evading official curbs on acquiring foreign funds. The report identified the main cartels involved in the fentanyl trade as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion, both labeled as foreign terrorist organizations by the U.S. The two cartels largely control the fentanyl supply chain in Mexico and use precursor chemicals and manufacturing equipment from China The activities by the cartels are mainly carried out in Sinaloa and Jalisco. The drug is produced in clandestine laboratories, the report said. In addition to Mexico and China, other foreign nations involved in the fentanyl trade include Canada, the Dominican Republic, and India. Those nations have been linked to alternative sources of supply for precursor chemicals and fentanyl and through illegal online pharmacies. China remains 'the primary source country for fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill press machinery,' with nearly 50% of the chemicals traced to the fentanyl trade located in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Hebei provinces in eastern China, the report said. The cities of Wuhan and Shijiazhuang were linked to the most banking reports for fentanyl precursor sales. In the United States, states playing a key role in the fentanyl trade include California, Florida and New York. The areas served as collection points for illicit proceeds. FinCEN analysis also noted a substantial number of subjects in southwest border counties in California and Arizona. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a statement that the data “ultimately aids in the effort to save American lives.” Last week the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Mexican national Beltran Guzman, a leader of the Beltran Leyva Organization, known as BLO, for his alleged role in trafficking fentanyl, cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine into the U.S., ranking among the largest suppliers of cocaine for the past two decades, operating with violent impunity, threatening communities, and targeting key officials, all while profiting from their criminal schemes. The BLO has been linked by authorities to shootouts, murders, kidnappings, torture, and the violent collection of drug debts. Beltran Guzman is the nephew of Guzman Loera, the U.S.-imprisoned leader of the Sinaloa Cartel known as El Chapo. In December, Mexican police made the largest seizure of fentanyl in the nation’s history in Sinaloa, netting over a thousand kilos of the drug. That is calculated to amount to 20 million doses of fentanyl. The Drug Enforcement Administration said 70% of the 107,000 drug overdose deaths in 2023 were the result of abuse of synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. China’s continuing role in providing precursor chemicals to Mexican drug cartels involved in the fentanyl trade was a major reason President Trump imposed heavy tariffs on Beijing in what is now a full-fledged trade war. (Source: The Washington Times - U.S.)

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NATO

April 14, 2025  Asked about the most critical US bases in Europe, retired lieutenant general Twitty, a distinguished fellow at CEPA and former Deputy Commander of US European Command said that all of them are 'pretty doggone' essential, provide a strategic depth, ’in terms of influence, deterrence, logistics, and because the US doesn’t fight wars on its homeland, but away from it’. ’If the US is in Europe, it is deterring our adversaries such as Russia, China, Iran, and others’. ’Whether you look at bases such as in Vicenza, Italy, which houses our 173rd Airborne Division, or in Vilseck, which houses our cavalry regiment, or Ramstein Air Base, which brings in strategic airlift and support. They’re critical.’ The Sixth Fleet, for example, in Spain or down in Naples, are critical ports and airports „where we have long-term basing relationships that are available for US contingencies because of agreements with the host community”. ’These are critical facilities that allow us to deploy at a moment’s notice, we don’t have to wait for permission’ to have access. ’By being stationed in Europe, it provides the gateway into other areas where we may need to operate. Case in point: When we invaded Iraq, we used many of our European bases as a stepping off point to conduct that invasion and to support logistics and maintenance into the Middle East theater. It was easier to use our Europe bases instead of our US bases to do that type of work’. „Another case in point: Landstuhl hospital. When our soldiers go into combat, the fastest way to get them to a level of care necessary is to fly them to Landstuhl, not the US”. ’These bases provide reassurance to our allies and partners over in Europe’. How would Russia and China interpret US Base closure and troop withdrawal from Europe? Over 600,000 Americans were killed as a result of World War II. They made a terrible sacrifice. „We can never forget that. And we have got to stay strong in Europe, in my mind, as a result of it’, he said. 'Our European partners will be the folks who we’ll be counting on to help us, just as they helped us after 9/11', Twitty added. „They did not have to do that, but NATO voted on Article 5, and they jumped in behind us in both Afghanistan and Iraq. We can never forget that'. „We drew down from 200,000 soldiers to between 60,000 to 100,000 soldiers in Europe today”. Now, there’s a significant disruption and ’there’s a threat to stability in Europe from Russia’. ’We still have some naysayers who think that this war is just a regional war, and it really does not impact Europe. So why do we need all that military capability there? Because in the big scheme of things, when folks look at it, Ukraine’s not part of NATO. Why do we care? Why should we get involved? On and on and on. And so, I think you have those things that are playing against our bases, against our military capability in Europe, and how important both are”. Pulling away from that now „we’re going to walk away from everything we stand for in terms of what we put in place in the Marshall Plan.” ’Our European bases provide us the geopolitical wasta [influence]’. We want to fight our wars not here on the homeland, but away. We want to play an away game. Our European bases allow us to do that’. /Source: Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) – with offices in Washington, D.C., U.S. and Warsaw, Poland/.

Global

April 14, 2025  Maintaining a robust US presence in Europe is essential to defending American interests, said retired from the U.S. Army as a Major General, " Skip" Davis, a non-resident senior fellow at CEPA, former deputy chief of staff for operations and intelligence at NATO’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe and director of operations at US European Command. European basing offers distinct strategic advantages. US bases - particularly in countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Italy, and Romania - ’deter aggression, especially from Russia’. They reassure allies under NATO’s Article 5 and enable rapid response via land, air, or sea due to geographic proximity to potential crises. Their presence supports diplomacy, enhances influence in institutions like NATO and the EU. The US presence contributes to stability in tense regions like the Balkans, the Aegean, and the Black Sea. Europe hosts the most developed US alliance network, with shared command and logistics structures. This strengthens NATO, supports Israel, and bolsters regional partners’ defenses. ’Several European nations host US nuclear weapons and provide dual-capable aircraft, reinforcing nuclear deterrence under NATO’. Europe’s location  -  at the intersection of Africa, the Middle East, 'and Central Asia' - makes it ideal for rapid deployment in all directions. US Army stocks and Navy sustainment capabilities in Spain, Italy, and Greece lower the time and cost of mobilization, air bases like Ramstein (Germany), Aviano and Sigonella (Italy), and Mihail Kogălniceanu (Romania) support rapid ’global response’. ’Globally’, the strategic objectives of US bases in Europe serve as launch points for operations. The bases support ’global’ logistics, airlift, and refueling, many house critical intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, essential for ’global awareness’. They also offer joint and multinational training that boosts coalition interoperability - ’a necessity for global missions’. Beyond defending Europe, US forces in Europe directly support homeland security - enable early warning and reduce the distance between emerging threats and the US ISR capabilities based in Europe. Bases also serve as hubs for missions targeting transnational terrorist threats that could impact the US directly. Davis cautions that a large-scale withdrawal – „drawdown” - could embolden Russia and China, ’it would make US power projection slower, costlier, and less effective. ’It would diminish US credibility, hinder crisis prevention. 'Russia would likely view it as a weakening of US commitment to NATO and a chance to expand its influence in Central and Eastern Europe. This could embolden Russia to increase military pressure on vulnerable NATO members or non-members like Moldova or Georgia. 'It could build up forces near NATO’s borders or in Kaliningrad and increase naval activity in the Atlantic or Mediterranean. China would exploit the perceived power vacuum to present itself as a stable, alternative global partner, using tools like foreign investment, technology, and trade - especially in Southern and Eastern Europe, targeting economically vulnerable nations. /Source: Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) – with offices in Washington, D.C., U.S. and Warsaw, Poland/.

Space

Sunday, 20 April 2025  A Soyuz MS-26 spacecraft carrying American Pettit and Russians Ovchinin and Wagner landed in Kazakhstan today. It was the fourth time in space for Mr Pettit and Mr Ovchinin, while it was Mr Vagner's second spaceflight. The crew's seven-month science mission started on 11 September 2024. They orbited the Earth 3,520 times over 220 days in space. Mr Pettit, who returns from space on 70th birthday, had been conducting research to enhance in-orbit metal 3D printing capabilities, advance water sanitisation technologies, explore plant growth under varying water conditions and investigate fire behaviour in microgravity, according to NASA. It was the fourth time in space for Mr Pettit and Mr Ovchinin, while it was Mr Vagner's second spaceflight. (Source: Sky News - United Kingdom)

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Hungary
(April 8, 2025)  Trump tariffs: Hungary is in the process of negotiating an agreement on a bilateral cooperation framework with the US, Foreign Minister Szijjártó says. “We are on very good terms with the Trump administration,” Szijjártó  explains in an interview on Bloomberg Television, adding that the discussed bilateral framework includes “economic elements.” He also defends Hungary's ties with China and Russia. /Video/ (Source: YouTube / Bloomberg Television = U.S.)
Since 8 April, 2025: 15 218 views

04.04.2025  Europe hates Trump, would like to see his peace efforts fail, claims Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán. He told public broadcaster MTI that Hungary has worked out a peace plan, while Western Europe has drafted a war plan aimed at keeping the Ukrainian army engaged in a prolonged conflict with Russia. Reiterating his support for US President Trump’s peace plan and negotiations, Orbán said: “If there’s anyone who can achieve peace, it’s him. And since we want peace, our job isn’t to hinder, criticize, or obstruct him, but to support him.” He claimed that Trump’s efforts had already ensured the war would not spread to other parts of Europe. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

April 3, 2025  Hungary exits International Criminal Court (ICC) as Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu arrives for state visit. The United States, Russia, China and Israel are among dozens of countries that are not signatories to the Rome Statute establishing the ICC and do not recognize its jurisdiction. (Source: UPI - U.S.)

02.04.2025  The Human Rights Watch (HRW) has urged Hungary to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he sets foot in the country. Hungary should deny entry to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or arrest him if he enters the country, the New York-based rights group said yesterday. At the time arrest warrants were issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC), Orbán said he will invite Netanyahu to visit, and will guarantee him that if he comes, the warrant will no effect in Hungary. He called the warrants cynical political interference in the ongoing Middle East conflict under the pretext of law. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

April 1, 2025  Parliament, dominated by Orbán's Fidesz party, passed a law last month to ban the Pride march on the grounds that it could be harmful to children. The law says police can use facial recognition cameras to identify people who attend the event, and impose fines on participants. Thousands protested in Budapest today, against a law that aims to ban the annual Pride march by LGBTQ+ groups. Orbán has said the fact that rallies such as the one today could take place meant there was no threat to democracy, calling opposition protests against the new law "provocation." A group of embassies in Budapest, including European states but not the United States, has also expressed concern over the changes. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)
by "Szakacs'

Germany
1 Apr 2025  Germany has launched its first deployment abroad since World War II. The country's parliament said troops will be sent to eastern Lithuania, which is NATO's eastern flank. The unit is to be fully operational by 2027. (Source: Mirror - United Kingdom)

Italy
(5 April 2025)  On March 28, Italy curtailed who could obtain citizenship through jure sanguinis, citing concerns that people with tenuous ties to the country have been taking advantage of the process to reap the benefits of an Italian passport. Previously, the law permitted those who could prove they had ancestors born in Italy after March 17, 1861 - when the Kingdom of Italy was founded - to apply for citizenship. Now, eligibility is restricted to individuals who have at least one parent or grandparent born in Italy. From 2014 to 2024, the number of Italian citizens living abroad rose from around 4.6 million to 6.4 million, according to Italy’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The ministry estimates that if jure sanguinis continues without generational limits, 60 million to 80 million people would be eligible to apply for citizenship. (Source: The Washington Post - U.S.)

Poland
08.04.2025  An NBC News report signaled a possible US withdrawal of up to half of the 20,000 troops that the Biden administration stationed in Eastern Europe in 2022. The report said talks on reducing US troop levels in Romania and Poland are taking place as President Trump seeks to persuade Russian President Putin to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. 'Defense minister says US troops to stay in Poland after talk of withdrawal from Eastern Europe. Troops to be relocated from Jasionka Airport to elsewhere in Poland, according to Polish Defense Ministry.' (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Romania
Apr 6, 2025  The Netherlands is engaged in discreet negotiations to permanently transfer a fleet of F-16 fighter jets to Romania by the end of the year. Transferring these jets to Romania sheds maintenance costs while reinforcing a NATO partner - a win-win on paper. This move aligns with the Netherlands’ broader military expansion, aiming to grow its armed forces from 74,000 to 200,000 by 2030. Freeing up resources for F-35 integration could accelerate that shift, while Romania inherits a proven, if aging, platform. This development, if finalized, could see Romania’s air force swell to nearly 70 F-16s. The transfer includes at least 18 Dutch F-16s currently involved in a training program for Ukrainian pilots at Romania’s 86th Air Base in Borcea. The Dutch F-16s in question are likely the Block 20 Mid-Life Update [MLU] versions, which underwent significant upgrades in the 1990s and 2000s. Romania’s current fleet includes aircraft acquired from Portugal - primarily the Block 15 variant, an early model from the 1980s - and a purchase of advanced Block 70 jets from Norway approved by the U.S. in 2022, expected to arrive later this year. The technical implications of managing nearly 70 F-16s are daunting. Romania’s existing Block 15 jets, while reliable, lack the advanced sensors and weapons integration of the Block 20 MLU and Block 70 variants. Maintenance crews must juggle distinct spare parts inventories, software updates, and training protocols, a task that could stretch Romania’s resources thin. Romania’s defense budget pegged at 2.5% of GDP in 2025 per NATO commitments, supports a range of priorities, from Patriot missile systems to naval upgrades. (Source: Bulgarianmilitary - Bulgaria)

European Parliament
April 5, 2025 6:24pm EDT  Eight people have been charged with corruption, money laundering and participation in a criminal organization following a probe into suspected bribery at the European Parliament, Belgium's public prosecutor said in a statement today. Prosecutors have said the alleged bribery is said to have benefited Huawei. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Russia
April 10, 2025  At the start of the Ukraine War, SpaceX head Musk granted Kyiv access to his Starlink satellite network sending the Kremlin, and the world a clear wake-up call about the immense value of satellites in war. Ukraine’s un-jammable communications access seriously complicated Russia’s invasion plans. The Russians have spent the last several years perfecting methods for disabling Starlink. Having already spent the better part of the last decade developing a robust arsenal of counterspace weapons specifically designed to stunt U.S. military power projection from space, Moscow may have just created an entirely new set of systems that can drastically degrade a capability that the rest of the U.S. military was investing heavily in. Russia’s Kalinka and Tobol advanced electronic warfare (EW) systems developed to disrupt satellite communications and navigation, are reflecting Russia’s significant and ongoing investment in counterspace capabilities. The actual “Starlink Killer” is the Kalinka system, which can detect and disrupt signals to and from Starlink satellites - aiming to interfere with Ukrainian military communications and drone operations. What’s more, the Kalinka is supposedly able to disrupt the functioning of Starlink’s sister constellation, the system that SpaceX specifically designed for the United States military to use, Starshield. Designated as 14Ts227, the Tobol system is a stationary EW platform originally designed to protect Russian satellites from jamming by monitoring and countering interference. It has been repurposed for offensive operations, targeting satellite signals such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Starlink. Tobol operates by jamming signals, either through downlink jamming (disrupting signals from satellites to ground receivers) or uplink jamming (interfering with signals sent to satellites). There are believed to be only seven Tobol stations across Russia, according to a 2024 report. One of the most prominent locations is in Kaliningrad. The Tobol system has been linked to widespread GPS jamming in the Baltic region, affecting thousands of flights and ships since at least 2023. It is such a threat that Finnair suspended flights to certain airports in the Baltic region in 2024 to avoid any life-threatening disruptions to their civilian flight operations. In Ukraine, meanwhile, this system is believed to have targeted Starlink nodes, disrupting synchronization between satellites and ground terminals. The Tobol’s range and power even allow it to create an electromagnetic shield, potentially protecting Russian assets from satellite-guided munitions. While Tobol disrupts broader GPS signals, Kalinka’s precision targeting could pose a more direct threat to specific military operations - although, of course, its full effectiveness remains unconfirmed in open sources. Unlike Tobol, which broadly jams satellite navigation, Kalinka reportedly has the ability to identify and target specific terminals, including those with enhanced security features. It could undermine critical battlefield connectivity among the Ukrainian Armed Forces spread across a brittle frontline with Russia. If Russia really does have a Starlink and Starshield killer, then they have caught up to the United States in a very real, disturbing way. And that means, it is now time to go back to the drawing board. If Russia has overcome these new satellite capabilities, then the Chinese certainly can as well - and all the money spent on reforming the satellite constellations by making them survivable will have to be spent enhancing their survivability once more. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine.

Apr 6, 2025  According to posts on X by AMK Mapping, an unofficial source tracking the conflict using open-source intelligence, Russia fired eight Iskander-M missiles - mobile short-range ballistic missile systems designed to strike with devastating accuracy with a circular error probable of just 16 to 23 feet when fully optimized - at targets in Kyiv, with claims that none were intercepted. Iskander-M boasts a range of up to 310 miles with a speed exceeding 2 kilometers per second and ability to maneuver during flight releasing decoys to confuse air defenses. It can carry a payload of nearly 1,800 pounds, including conventional warheads like high-explosive fragmentation or cluster munitions. In this assault, the combination of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles suggests a deliberate attempt to saturate Ukraine’s defenses, potentially signaling Russia’s confidence in its ability to penetrate even advanced Western defenses. Estimated in November 2023, Russia manufactured 30 Iskander-M missiles monthly, per the Institute for the Study of War. The cost is roughly $3 million per missile. (Source: Bulgarianmilitary - Bulgaria)
by Nikolov
See also: Russian 9K720 ISKANDER-M tactical missile: Load launch impact /Video/ (Source: YouTube)
Since September 19, 2019: 8 229 305 views

(1 April 2025)  President Putin has called up 160,000 men aged 18-30, Russia's highest number of conscripts since 2011. Russia calls up conscripts in the spring and autumn. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Ukraine
(5/4/2025)  'Concerns persist about Ukraine becoming a significant source of illicit firearms and ammunition … in the short to medium term' - Ukraine ‘risks becoming global arms trafficking hub’ after war ends, Europol, the EU’s law enforcement wing warns. Stockpiles of military-grade weapons, drones and ammunition left behind on battlefields risk being exploited by organised crime groups when the hostilities cease, according to a 100 page Europol report titled 'The changing DNA of serious and organised crime'. The US, the largest single donor of military aid to Ukraine, said in March it had provided $66.58bn (€60.44bn) in military assistance to the country since Russia invaded in February 2022. This includes 500 million rounds of small arms ammunition and more than 50,000 grenade launchers. The ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine is a source of ever new threats to our internal security', Siemoniak, Poland’s interior minister, said. “Aware of this fact, we must identify and monitor these threats on an ongoing basis, reacting quickly and adequately". Spanish police have already uncovered evidence of drug gangs arming themselves with weapons donated by Nato members to Ukrainian forces. The arms are believed to have been advertised for sale and purchased on the dark web. (Source: MSN - U.S. / Irish Independent - Ireland)
The report (Source: Europol)

Thursday 03 April 2025  Ukraine has branched out into a new treatment for its traumatised and damaged troops – ketamine. Ukrainian medics are treating veterans with PTSD at the Lisova Polyana psychiatric hospital. Up to 80 per cent of the troops who come through Lisova Polyana end up back in the army. Ukraine’s pioneer in psychedelic therapy Dr Metranitsy says that he is seeing successful treatment of about 70 per cent of PTSD patients. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

United Kingdom
Saturday, 05 April 2025  British and French military chiefs have met their counterparts in Ukraine to discuss how Stramer’s ’coalition of the willing’ can build on the capabilities of the Ukrainian army. Admiral Radakin, the chief of the UK defence staff, was in Kyiv this week for talks on the structure, size and make-up of the Ukraine force, in the event of a peace deal between Zelensky and Putin. Defence secretary Healey will host counterparts in a 30-strong ’coalition of the willing’ meeting in Brussels next week. ’We will continue to ramp up our military planning, exploring the air, sea and land forces that could support a lasting peace in Ukraine’. ’However, we will not jeopardise the peace by forgetting about the war.’ (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

Saturday 05 April 2025  Former MI6 boss says Britain ’must get ready for war’, it needs to rearm and build reserves through a form of national service. The threat from Russia – and its closeness to the US – is real, Younger said. “We have, for many years, been completely free of any form of existential threat. ’We’ve unforgivably… launched a set of wars of choice, which have imposed sacrifice needlessly on young people and there’s great cynicism about this idea of collective effort to defend your’ country. He gave a distinctly British establishment response to the question of whether or not, after backing Putin so publicly, ’Trump could be working for Russia’, an allegation which has been made against the US president in the past, without any evidence. ’I personally don’t think he’s a Russian agent. I went out of my way not to find out because why would you want to know? So I don’t know’. „The point is he agrees with Putin”. He agrees that big countries get additional rights over small countries, particularly in their own backyard.” He said Britain had fallen behind other European nations in its ability, and willingness, to defend itself. “I think the UK is quite conflicted as well. We’ve got this astonishing history, which makes people readier to conceive of Britain playing a much more active role, but I think here too, there’s real concern about being asked to actually do stuff.” The longstanding issue of trust is now being undermined by the US, both in terms of military doctrine, as shown by Nato’s Article 5, and in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing system between the UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. It has been badly damaged by the recent Signal messaging group scandal, Younger said. Dr Ellehuus, now director general of the Royal United Services Institute, Britain’s leading security think tank, laid out the threat that has intensified following the sudden change in strategic ideology in Washington under Trump. She said that while the threat posed by the Kremlin had been persistent, it has been the dramatic shift in Washington that has been the greatest strategic shock. “President Putin is trying to redraw the map. Some of the changes that were made at the end of the Cold War that left Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova as not part of the Soviet Union but neither part of Nato or the European Union, left them in a kind of limbo. [It] created an opportunity for him to chip away at the margins of those countries and create pockets of instability or insecurity that would prevent them from fully integrating into Nato or the EU. He is going to test the boundaries of what we call Article 5, which is the commitment that an attack against one Nato ally is an attack against all of them. He’s already been pushing the boundaries of that through below-the-threshold activities that aren’t conventional attacks.” (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)
A comment:
' ’We have, for many years, been completely free of any form of existential threat. ’We've unforgivably… launched a set of wars of choice, which have imposed sacrifice needlessly on young people and there's great cynicism about this idea of collective effort to defend your country." He's right on that, but we got there by listening to the exact same people like Mr Younger’.

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