Egyik 19

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Europe

Belgium
07.01.2026  Speaking before the Belgian Federal Parliament's Defense Committee, Belgium's Defense Minister Francken today said that decades of weak leadership and underinvestment in military capabilities have left Europe heavily dependent on the United States for its security, attributing the dependence to years of budget cuts and structural gaps in intelligence, air defense, aerial refueling, and drones, Flemish-language broadcaster VRT reported. He said, that countries without credible military capabilities risk being sidelined in international affairs. ’A world in which our vision of the international legal order is not shared by everyone, the strong do what they want, the weak suffer what they must. ’What position has weak European leadership brought us to?’ On the issue of Greenland, Francken confirmed that no request has been made for Belgian troop deployments, either by the EU, Denmark, or NATO, emphasizing that no Belgian military involvement in Greenland is planned. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Denmark
Jan 7, 2026 - 16:13  Denmark’s defence leadership has confirmed Copenhagen’s armed forces will fight American troops should they invade the island of Greenland, highlighting the possibility of direct combat between two military allies. A 1952 law orders Danish forces to engage immediately against an attack, even if there was no formal declaration of war, Danish media Berlingske reports. The order states that units shall without delay take up the fight without awaiting orders, and must continue resisting to buy time for broader mobilisation. The rule also obliges police to support military efforts against internal collaboration and requires Home Guard members to report for duty. Danish soldiers must not obey orders from authorities who have been captured or who have been otherwise incapacitated by the enemy. A 1951 defence agreement between Denmark and the US that gives the Americans wide military access to the island. During the Cold War, the United States operated up to 50 bases and radar stations in Greenland. Today, only one remains – the Pituffik Space Base – which hosts around 150 US personnel. (Source: Euractiv - headquarters in Brussels, Belgium)

Greenland
07.01.2026  Greenland covers 2.16 million square kilometers * and is home to roughly 56,000 people, mostly of Inuit origin. Its population is concentrated along the western coast, with Nuuk serving as the capital. The island is largely covered by ice, and its economy is primarily based on fishing. While Greenland has pursued greater autonomy from Denmark, including home rule granted in 1979 and self-government in 2009, its foreign and security policies remain under Danish control. The US maintains a military presence on the island through Thule Space Base, a key component of its missile defense and early warning systems. With northern shipping routes expected to become navigable for longer periods, Greenland's location is becoming even more significant. Greenland is rich in mineral resources increasingly seen as essential to modern economies and defense industries. 25 of the 34 minerals classified as critical raw materials by the European Commission, used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, advanced electronics and military equipment are found in Greenland, a 2023 survey showed. Three of Greenland's largest rare earth deposits are located in the southern Gardar province, with companies exploring the area. Mining projects often encounter bureaucratic hurdles as well as opposition from indigenous communities. Graphite, used in EV batteries and steelmaking, is widespread, while copper and nickel remain underexplored, with mining company Anglo American holding Western Greenland licenses. Zinc is mainly found in northern Greenland, with Citronen Fjord among the world’s largest undeveloped zinc-lead deposits. Southern areas around Sermiligaarsuk Fjord host gold, including Amaroq Minerals’ Mt. Nalunaq mine. Greenland also hosts deposits of diamonds, iron ore, titanium, vanadium, tungsten, and uranium. Uranium mining was banned in 2021, halting projects where uranium appears as a byproduct. Greenland's local leadership has condemned US remarks regarding the seizura of it. Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen described the idea of US control as completely unacceptable and emphasized that any discussions must respect international law and the will of Greenlanders. Denmark has firmly rejected any US claim on Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned: "If the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been provided since the end of World War II." Greenland is formally under NATO's security umbrella as part of a member state. According to polls conducted in January 2025, 85% of Greenlanders oppose becoming part of the United States. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
* Europe covers 10.18 km²

(Wednesday), January 07, 2026 11:54 IST  The Trump administration believes that taking over Greenland is a national security  priority of the United States, and was important to defend itself against adversaries in  the Arctic region, mainly China. Trump himself has expressed renewed interest in taking the island. White House itself was declaring that using military power is not off the table. Analysts are examining four potential ways the invasion of Greenland could happen.     White House Deputy Chief of Staff Miller was openly declaring that military force was on the table and no one was going to fight the US over Greenland. Miller in his CNN interview said nobody is going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland. ’We live in a world, in the real world, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world,’ Miller said. Greenland, the world’s largest island, but with a population of just 57,000 people, does not have the military capacity to take on the US. Trump could also use coercion as a means to take over Greenland.     ’The real estate maverick’ that he is, Trump could make an offer the island can’t refuse. The US President has already offered to invest ’billions of dollars to create new jobs and make you rich’. This could change the fate of over 57,000 people with a GDP of less than £3 billion, overwhelmingly dependent on fishing and subsidies from Copenhagen. Secretary of state Rubio told lawmakers on Monday that the administration’s goal is to buy Greenland and not invade it. The US had earlier contemplated buying Greenland from Denmark on three occasions, in 1867, 1910, and 1946.    Reports hint that the US officials were working on a potential deal where Greenland would sign a “Compact of Free Association” (Cofa) with the US. This means that the US relations with Greenland would be similar to its association with Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands. This means the island to keep its formal independence while  effectively giving the American military carte blanche on their territory in return for duty-free trade. But, for this to happen, Greenland has to be free from Denmark, which can happen only with the Danish parliament’s consent. The Denmark government isn’t enthusiastic about this as it would mean the US get control over their strategically vital territory in their neighbourhood.….One way for the US to remove the Danish hegemony is to push Greenland towards independence. Without Danish control, Greenland could sign deals directly with the US. Danish media claims that the US have already tried this. Denmark’s security and intelligence service, PET, was already warning Greenland that it is the target of influence campaigns of various kinds. They added that Americans with ties to Trump have carried out covert influence operations in Greenland. Kartte, a digital policy expert who has advised EU institutions and governments, told Politico that this is similar to what Russia did to influence political outcomes in countries such as Moldova, Romania and Ukraine. (Source: The Week - India)

(Tuesday, 6 January 2026)  Big European powers may have issued their joint statement underlining Nato as a forum to discuss Arctic security and insisting that only Denmark and Greenland can decide the islands future, but how far would the UK , France, Germany and others actually go to guarantee that sovereignty? Nobody's going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland, said the confident sounding White House deputy chief of staff in an interview with CNN yesterday. 'In the new world of Big Power Politics we now inhabit, where the US and China, along with others like Russia and India, dominate, Europe at best looks like it's standing on the sidelines, and risks being trampled underfoot'. When Trump 'slapped 15% tariffs on EU goods last year, the bloc swallowed its pride and promised not to retaliate, insiders say because it feared losing US support this continent relies on for its security and defence'. And now there's Greenland and Denmark - where EU countries are deeply divided in their attitudes towards the Trump administration and therefore to what extent they might stick their neck out for Copenhagen. Does risk this situation breaking the EU as well as being an existential dilemma for Nato? Trump has never been a big fan of the transatlantic alliance. Consider the irony at play at the France meeting. Multiple European national and other leaders, including of Nato and the EU, are trying to engage the Trump administration in safeguarding the future sovereignty of a European country (Ukraine) against the aggressive territorial ambitions of an outside force (Russia), just after the US has swooped into sovereign Venezuela militarily, taking its president into custody, while also continuing to actively threaten the sovereignty of another European nation (Denmark). On Sunday US President Trump insisted that the island is "so strategic right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security and Denmark is not going to be able to do it.' Greenland is the world's largest island - it's six times the size of Germany. Under a bilateral agreement, the US has a military base already on Greenland - established at the beginning of the Cold War. It has reduced the number of personnel there from around 10,000 during peak Cold War operations to around 200 and the US has long been accused of taking its eye off Arctic Security, until now. Nato treaties do not make a distinction between an attack on an ally from outside countries or from another Nato ally but there is an understanding that the alliance's Article 5 - nicknamed its all for one and one for all clause - isn't applicable to one Nato country attacking another. Take, for example, strife between member states Turkey and Greece over Cyprus. The worst violence was in 1974 when Turkey invaded. Nato did not intervene but its most powerful member the US was able to help mediate. Nato insiders say, right now, even in meeting behind closed doors European member states of the alliance can hardly bring themselves to contemplate what could happen if Washington were to move in on Greenland militarily. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Tuesday 06 January 2026 15:21 GMT  Statement by Prime Minister Frederiksen of Denmark, President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany, Prime Minister Meloni of Italy, Prime Minister Tusk of Poland, Prime Minister Sánchez of Spain and Prime Minister Starmer of the United Kingdom on Greenland. "Arctic security remains a key priority for Europe and it is critical for international and transatlantic security. “NATO has made clear that the Arctic region is a priority and European Allies are stepping up. We and many other Allies have increased our presence, activities and investments, to keep the Arctic safe and to deter adversaries. The Kingdom of Denmark – including Greenland – is part of NATO. “Security in the Arctic must therefore be achieved collectively, in conjunction with NATO allies including the United States, by upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders. These are universal principles, and we will not stop defending them. “The United States is an essential partner in this endeavour, as a NATO ally and through the defence agreement between the Kingdom of Denmark and the United States of 1951. “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff, said yesterday afternoon that Greenland should be part of the United States in spite of a warning by Frederiksen that a U.S. takeover of Greenland would amount to the end of NATO. “The president has been clear for months now that the United States should be the nation that has Greenland as part of our overall security apparatus,” Miller said during an interview with CNN. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

European Commission
Jan 7, 2026 - 14:08  German MEP De Masi filed a lawsuit against the European Commission before the EU’s General Court, accusing President der Leyen of failing to properly disclose contacts with defence industry representatives. It argues that der Leyen violated her obligation, stipulated in EU treaties, to answer inquiries from Parliament. The co-chair of the left-populist BSW party argued that der Leyen only partially and belatedly answered his formal request for information about meetings, calls, emails and other communications with arms industry officials since the 2024 European elections. De Masi said that the Commission chief failed to elaborate on whether she had any additional contacts with defence industry representatives beyond those officially disclosed. The Commission president cited only a small number of meetings – including a ’strategic dialogue’ with defence firms and an industry dinner – and otherwise referred vaguely to transparency registers, press releases and social media, while omitting information on calls, emails and other correspondence that was explicitly requested. Der Leyen has previously been found liable for withholding information. Whilst serving as German defence minister, der Leyen was accused of mismanaging millions of euros in public funds in awarding contracts to private consultants. In May, the EU General Court also found that the European Commission had wrongly dismissed a request by The New York Times to access texts between the president and the Pfizer CEO during the pandemic. ’From the Bundeswehr’s procurement scandal to the Pfizer affair, Ms der Leyen has repeatedly been implicated in mismanagement and the deletion of files, De Masi wrote in a press release. The complaint was filed before Christmas last year but was first reported by the German news agency dpa today. (Source:  Euractiv - headquarters Brussels, Belgium)

Russia
21:08, Wed, Jan 7, 2026  UK forces supported today the seizure carried out by US special forces of the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera. The Marinera has been under scrutiny since last month, when the US Coast Guard attempted to board it in the Caribbean after obtaining a warrant over alleged violations of US sanctions and claims that the ship had transported Iranian oil. The operation failed when the vessel suddenly changed course, changed its name, and reflagged itself from Guyana to Russia. Its move toward Europe has been was by the deployment of roughly 10 US transport aircraft and helicopters before it was boarded. ’UK Armed Forces provided pre-planned operational support, including basing, to U.S. military assets interdicting the Bella 1 in the UK-Iceland-Greenland gap following a U.S. request for assistance. ’RFA Tideforce provided support for U.S. forces pursuing and interdicting the Bella 1, while the RAF provided surveillance support from the air’. (Source: Express - United Kingdom)

January 7, 2026  The deployment of Oreshnik hypersonic missile systems to Belarus - the likely front line of a NATO-Russia conflict - was confirmed last month by Belarusian President Lukashenko, a longtime ally and personal friend of Russian President Putin. These missiles have been officially placed on combat duty. Belarus not only neighbors Russia, but shares a border with embattled Ukraine as well. Is Moscow planning to use them at some near-future point as part of a new round of offensives aimed at breaking the back of Ukraine’s resistance? Opening an offensive with hypersonic weapons fired from Belarus would be devastating to the beleaguered defenders of Ukraine - especially since there are no known defenses against them - the Oreshnik missile supposedly travels at Mach 10, making it all but impossible to intercept with existing air defenses. But European NATO members such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia - all are near to Belarus’ borders. Moscow is attempting to send a strong signal of renewed deterrence to the Europeans. Oreshniks have an estimated range of up to 5,500 kilometers. This is on top of Moscow’s conventional nuclear weapons capability. Researchers Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California along with Eveleth of the CAN research and analysis organization based in Virginia told Reuters that “they were 90 percent certain that mobile Oreshnik launchers would be stationed at the former airbase near Krichev, some 307 km east of the Belarus capital of Minsk, and 478 km southwest of Moscow.” The movement of these systems nearer to Ukraine and the rest of NATO Europe is a response to more provocative actions taken by NATO. As 2025 closed out, the United States Army announced they would be stationing their own intermediate-range hypersonic weapons system, known as Dark Eagle. The Army’s Dark Eagle platform is largely untested and is still very much an experimental system. The Russians, on the other hand, have had access to the Oreshnik for years and they have perfected this system. Moscow is committed to restoring deterrence. If the Americans are planning to place the Dark Eagle system in Germany, nearer to Russian borders, at some point this year, Moscow was going to preempt that move by placing their more advanced - and numerous - Oreshniks in Belarus. Another development: The 2010 New START Treaty, negotiated by Putin and former US President Obama, expires this year. Once that treaty is gone, there will be no further strategic arms limitation agreement existing between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. So, the deployment of the Oreshnik gives the Kremlin added leverage. It’s the product of careful strategy. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Weichert

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Americas

Caribbean

Aruba
January 6, 2026 4:07 pm CET  The Netherlands has pulled out of U.S.-led counter-drug missions in the Caribbean where it controls six islands. It cooperated closely with the United States and other partners in the region, including through the Joint Interagency Task Force South. Dutch defense forces and the coast guard worked with U.S. counterparts on surveillance, interdiction, arrests and extraditions. 'The method and the operation the United States is carrying out now, they are really doing that themselves. We are not participating in that,” Defense Minister Brekelmans said in Aruba. In November, London had suspended some intelligence sharing with the United States after Washington began launching lethal strikes on boats in the Caribbean. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

Cuba
January 5, 2026, 3:20 AM  Cuba has acknowledged the deaths of 32 Cubans in the American military operation that ousted Venezuela's leader over the weekend. (Source: ABC News - U.S. / „Associated Press (U.S.) Janetsky in Mexico City and Superville aboard Air Force One contributed to this report”/

North America

United States
January 7. (2026)  The US authorities put forward demands to the acting President of Venezuela, Rodriguez, the US-based television broadcaster ABC News television channel reported. They demand that the Bolivarian Republic should sever economic ties with China, Cuba, Iran and Russia as a condition for increasing oil production. Secondly, Caracas is required to agree to exclusive cooperation with the United States in the field of oil production. US President Trump announced earlier in the day that the interim Venezuelan authorities agreed to hand up to 50 million barrels of oil over to the United States. /Source: TASS - Russia/.

(5.01.2026) Washington's direct intervention in the internal affairs of the region has shaped the political direction of numerous Latin American countries, almost always under the argument of "security", "democracy", or the "fight against communism", and with deep and long-lasting consequences for their societies. From coups d'etat and covert operations to military invasions - US interventions in Latin America over the past 75 years:     Nicaragua    Although Nicaragua in Central America had achieved independence in 1838, its volatile political landscape - defined by clashes between liberals and conservatives - created an opening for US influence. In 1912, following a request from conservative leaders, US troops invaded the country, maintaining a military presence until 1933 and Washington wielded disproportionate power over Nicaragua's political and economic life. Grant, who would later become president of the United States, described it as one of the most unjust ever waged by a strong nation against a weaker one.    Cuba    Bay of Pigs: On April 15 1961, B-26 aircraft sent by the United States bombed Cuban bases to annihilate the Revolutionary Air Force and facilitate the landing of the so-called Brigade 2506, made up of exiles and mercenaries who had been trained by the CIA, in Guatemala and Nicaragua. On April 17, Brigade 2506 - made up of some 1,500 armed men and supported by aircraft and ships of the US Navy -- attempted to land at Playa Giron, in Cuba's Bay of Pigs, about 180 kilometres southeast of Havana. The attack sought to overthrow Castro and install a government that had been formed in Miami, but it was repelled and crushed by the Cuban Army after 72 hours of fighting, in which 200 people on both sides were killed and 1,200 attackers were captured. They were exchanged in 1963 for food and medicine from the United States. The failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion took place in the context of the Castro government's rapprochement with the Soviet Union. It represented a serious setback for then-President Kennedy.    Dominican Republic    On April 28 1965, then-US President Johnson sent 20,000 Marines to the Dominican Republic to quell the civil conflict the country was experiencing after Bosch - who had come to power following the death of dictator Trujillo in 1961 - was deposed by the military. Washington's aim was to "prevent the country from falling into the hands of communism" and from creating "a second Cuba" in the Caribbean. The US installed General Barrera at the head of the government, and in September 1966 Washington's troops left the country, shortly before presidential elections were held in which Bosch was defeated by Balaguer, who had been part of Trujillo's administration and would remain in power until 1996.    Grenada    On October 25 1983, nearly 2,000 US Marines, along with a symbolic force of 300 soldiers from other small Caribbean countries - Jamaica, Antigua, Barbados, Dominica, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent - invaded the Caribbean island of Grenada to overthrow the military regime that had seized power on October 19, after executing Prime Minister Bishop, three of his ministers and numerous civilians. That coup had overthrown a government established in 1979, also by force, and had installed an administration supported by Cuba. Reagan, justified the intervention - called "Operation Urgent Fury" - by citing the need to protect the lives of the thousand US citizens living on the island and to restore democratic institutions, while also claiming that an airport was being built for military use by the Soviets and Cubans. Most US troops left the country on November 1 1983, after a provisional government was established, and elections were held in 1988. Since then, the country has remained a parliamentary democracy. The invasion was condemned even by the European allies of the US.    Panama    On the night of December 20 1989, with Bush in the White House, 26,000 US soldiers entered Panama to dismantle the country's army and capture Noriega, accused of drug trafficking, in an operation known as "Just Cause". Noriega, who ruled the country between 1983 and 1989 and had been collaborating with the CIA, surrendered 13 days later to US troops surrounding the Apostolic Nunciature in Panama, where he had taken refuge after the invasion. More than 500 people died, 314 of them military personnel and the vast majority Panamanians, according to data declassified by the Pentagon in 2019. Humanitarian organisations put the number of Panamanian civilians killed at between 500 and 4,000. Transferred to Miami on January 4 1990, Noriega was tried and sentenced in the US to 40 years in prison for drug trafficking, later reduced to 20. After serving two years of the sentence in France, he was extradited to Panama in 2011, where he faced sentences totaling more than 60 years in prison, and where he died in May 2017. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) condemned the events in 2018 and demanded that the US compensate the victims and launch a full investigation.    Haiti    On September 19 1994, more than 23,000 US troops peacefully occupied Haiti to facilitate the transition to democracy and the return of Aristide, the island's first president voted into power in democratic elections (1990), who had been overthrown on September 30 1991 by a military coup led by General Cedras. The arrival of the troops came hours after a US delegation led by former President Carter reached an agreement with Cedras for the entry of US forces into Haiti, the departure of the coup government, Aristide's return, and the calling of future elections. Aristide returned to Haiti on October 15 and resumed his mandate. At the end of March 1995, US forces transferred command of the peace operation to the UN. In June legislative and municipal elections were held, which the opposition denounced as favoring Aristide's party. In February 2004, the United States again deployed Marines in Haiti, this time as part of an international coalition authorised by the United Nations, following an armed uprising that led to Aristide's departure. This intervention sought to stabilise the country and create favourable conditions for the formation of a transitional government and the arrival of a UN peacekeeping force. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

South America

Venezuela
1/7/2026  The US has begun marketing Venezuelan crude to global buyers, a move that could make it one of the most powerful oil traders in the world. ’We have engaged the world’s leading commodity marketers and key banks to execute and provide financial support for these crude oil and crude products sales,’ the Energy Department said today. President Trump is pushing for US oil companies such as Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp. to rebuild Venezuela’s infrastructure and revive production. The undertaking is estimated to cost $10 billion per year over the next decade. The Energy Department said it would selectively roll back sanctions to enable the transport and sale of Venezuelan crude and oil products to global markets. The changes would also allow the import of select oil field equipment, parts and services. Venezuela’s state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA is in negotiations with Washington over crude sales through a framework that would be similar to its arrangement with Chevron Corp., the only US oil major still operating in the country. (Source: Bloomberg - U.S.)

07.01.26, 11:15 AM U.S.  President Trump has said he wants interim President Rodriguez to give the U.S. and private companies total access to Venezuela's oil industry. Caracas and Washington have reached a deal to export up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude to the United States, Trump said yesterday. "This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!,’ he added. The agreement is a strong sign that the Venezuelan government is responding to Trump's demand that they open up to U.S. oil companies or risk more military intervention. The flagship negotiation would divert supplies from China while helping Venezuela avoid deeper oil production cuts. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright is in charge of executing the deal, Trump said, adding that the oil will be taken from ships and sent directly to U.S. ports. That flow of oil is controlled entirely by Chevron, PDVSA's main joint venture partner, under a U.S. authorization. Supplying the trapped crude to the U.S. could initially require reallocating cargoes originally bound for China. The Asian country has been Venezuela's top buyer in the last decade. U.S. crude prices fell more than 1.5% after Trump's announcement. Chevron - the only company that has been loading and shipping crude without interruption from the South American country in recent weeks under the blockade - has been exporting between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. It was not immediately clear if Venezuela would have any access to proceeds from the supply. Sanctions mean PDVSA is excluded from the global financial system, its bank accounts are frozen and it is blocked from executing transactions in U.S. dollars. Venezuela has been selling its flagship crude grade, Merey, at around $22 per barrel below Brent for delivery at Venezuelan ports, giving a value for the deal at up to $1.9 billion. Rodriguez, sworn in as interim president on Monday, is herself under U.S. sanctions imposed in 2018 ’for undermining democracy’. Venezuelan and U.S. officials this week discussed possible sales mechanisms, including auctions to allow interested U.S. buyers to bid for cargoes, and issuing U.S. licenses to PDVSA's business partners that could lead to supply contracts. Those licenses have in the past allowed PDVSA's joint venture partners and customers, including Chevron, India's Reliance, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and European Eni and Repsol, to have access to Venezuelan oil to refine or to resell to third parties. This week, some of those companies have begun making preparations for receiving Venezuelan cargoes again. The U.S. and Venezuela have also discussed if Venezuelan oil can be used in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the future, one of the sources said. Trump did not refer to this possibility. U.S. refineries on the Gulf Coast can process Venezuela's heavy crude grades and were importing some 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) before Washington first imposed energy sanctions on Venezuela. PDVSA has already had to cut production due to the embargo, because it is running out of storage for the oil. Without a way to export oil soon, it would have to cut production more. (Source: The Telegraph – India)

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Europe

Germany
January 3, 2026  Germany is leading Europe’s rearmament panic. It has expanded its Arrow-3 air defense system purchase with Israel earlier this month, in what is being dubbed as the single largest Israeli defense export ever. Berlin has expanded its purchase order to around $3.1 billion from the initial purchase value, bringing the whole deal’s value up to more than $6.7 billion. This purchase is part of the larger European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) that the continent’s powers are embracing as part of a larger strategy of defense. They are looking to Israel, which has pioneered the world’s most cutting-edge air defense systems to protect its airspace from terrorist threats. Relying on the Israelis to produce these systems, when their defense industrial base is already overburdened - and the Israelis require these systems as much as the Germans and Europeans do - is unrealistic. The Arrow-3 is never going to be effective in the way that European leaders believe the system will be effective. All this can be avoided if the Europeans can get behind a real peace negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, rather than continuing to try to expand the Ukraine War. By the time they see the wisdom in it, it may be too late. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Weichert

Poland
02.01.2026  In a New Year’s address, Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk said his government would speed up military expansion, launch major infrastructure projects, and continue what he called the repolonization and rebuilding of key industries, including the defense sector. ' We will accelerate construction of the strongest army in Europe ' he said. Reflecting on 2025, Tusk described the year past as a turning point for the country despite global instability. (Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

(Tuesday ), 01.01.2026  Farmers across Poland staged nationwide protests today at more than 160 locations, demonstrating against the planned EU-Mercosur trade agreement, which they say threatens Poland’s agricultural sector, rural communities, and national food security. Actions organized by the National Grassroots Farmers’ Protest were held on highways, expressways, national roads and key transport points. Traffic disruptions were reported in central Poland, Pomerania, the Lodz and Opole regions, and in Warsaw, with additional demonstrations in Lublin and Silesia. Organizers argue the deal would open the EU market to agricultural products from South America produced under lower environmental and regulatory standards, undercutting Polish farmers and accelerating the decline of family-run farms. The EU-Mercosur trade agreement would grant preferential tariffs for imports of beef, poultry, dairy products, sugar, and ethanol from Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Bolivia. European industrial goods would gain wider access to South American markets. “These agricultural protests are a direct result of inaction, decision-making chaos, and a lack of real support from Polish politicians,’ the National Grassroots Farmers’ Protest said on social media, calling for guarantees for the sector. The deal has been postponed to January 2026. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has maintained a negative stance toward the agreement, saying the delay should give the European Commission time to consider safeguards. President Nawrocki has urged the government to seek partners within the EU to form a blocking minority. In mid-December, farmers from several European countries, including France and Italy, protested in Brussels, warning that Mercosur tariff preferences could harm European agriculture. Organizers of today’s demonstrations said further protests are possible if demands are not addressed. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

30.12.2025  '  Poland signs $3.8B deal with South Korea to jointly manufacture medium-range precision-guided missiles. The contract was signed yesterday by Poland’s Armament Agency and a consortium of South Korea’s Hanwha and Poland’s WB Group. It covers the joint production of more than 10,000 CGR-080 medium-range missiles for Poland’s Homar-K rocket launcher systems, a Polish-adapted version of South Korea’s K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher platform, mounted on domestically produced Jelcz military trucks. Under the agreement, a joint Polish–South Korean production facility will be established in the northwestern city of Gorzow Wielkopolski. Missile deliveries scheduled to take place between 2030 and 2033. The agreement is the third major defense deal between Poland and South Korea in recent years. Under contracts signed in 2022 and 2024, Warsaw purchased around 290 Homar-K launcher modules along with thousands of precision-guided medium- and long-range missiles.  ' (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Spain
01.01.2026  More than 3,000 drowned attempting to reach Spain by sea in 2025. Victims come from 30 countries, mainly in west and north Africa, but also from Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Iraq and Egypt. The Atlantic crossing from North Africa to the Canary Islands remained the deadliest route, accounting for 1,906 deaths this year. The journey can take up to 12 days at sea. Migrants also attempted the route from Algeria to the Balearic Islands, where 1,037 people lost their lives. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Russia
(2 January 2026)  Russia has accused Ukraine of killing at least 27 people in a drone strike on a New Year's party in a hotel and cafe in the Russian-occupied southern Kherson region, in the village of Khorly on the Black Sea. The damaged building seen in the photos appears to be a three-storey hotel and restaurant formerly known as Ukrainian House, and now called Buganova's Cafe. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

(Wednesday), December 31, 2025, 11:11 AM  Ukraine’s air force said Wednesday that Russia fired 127 drones at the country during the night, with 101 of them intercepted by air defenses. Russian drones blasted apartment buildings and the power grid in the city of Odesa in an overnight attack. Power company DTEK said two of its energy facilities suffered significant damage. The company said that 10 substations that distribute electricity in the Odesa region were damaged in December alone. The Russian Defense Ministry said that 86 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over Russian regions, the Black Sea and the Crimea peninsula. Moscow has alleged that Ukraine attempted to attack Russian President Putin’s residence in northwestern Russia with 91 long-range drones late Saturday and early Sunday. Ukrainian officials deny the claim. Maj. Gen. Romanenkov of the Russian air force claimed today that the drones took off from Ukraine’s Sumy and Chernihiv regions. At a briefing, he presented a map showing the drone flight routes before they were downed by Russian air defenses over the Bryansk, Tver, Smolensk and Novgorod regions. (Source: ABC News / Associated Press = U.S.)

December 30, 2025 9:18pm  Nearly half a million Moscow residents are understood to be without power after Ukrainian drones attacked the city. The blackout was caused by a fire at a substation. Moscow is claiming it was caused by an enemy drone attack. Communication lines were also down in the southeast Moscow neighbourhoods for several hours. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin claimed that at least 100 drones were shot down between 5pm and 7.48pm - most downed above the Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine, while eight drones were shot down in the Moscow region. City officials said 73 back-up generators have been installed. The interceptions forced Moscow’s airports to suspend travel. (Source: Metro – United Kingdom)

Baltic Sea
31/12/2025 - 17:25  Finnish authorities seized cargo vessel Fitburg en route from the Russian port of St Petersburg to Israel sailing today, suspected of sabotaging an undersea telecommunications cable running from Helsinki to Estonia across the Gulf of Finland. The cable belongs to Finnish telecoms group Elisa. The Fitburg's 14 crew members were from Russia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, and were all held by Finnish police. The Fitburg was dragging its anchor in the sea. (Source: France 24)

Ukraine
2 January 2026  Zelensky has offered the position of presidential chief of staff to military intelligence chief Budanov. He proposed appointing First Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov as Ukraine's new defence minister who could be replacing Shmyhal. (Source: Independent - United Kingdom)

United Kingdom
30 December 2025  When the British Labour government created a Minister for Safeguarding Women and Girls, the true objective was not to protect the she-people in the title against real harm, but to attack a largely imaginary enemy. In this case, the class enemy would be suitably-diabolised white men, such as the Anglo-American Tate, and not the real threat to British women, namely the Asian men who have raped many thousands of poor white English girls. A concerted campaign against that ethnic entity would almost certainly result in the collapse of the Pakistani vote for the Labour Party and perhaps its permanent exclusion from power. 'Better by far to attack an imaginary peril than the real one', for which there is a sound precedent. Catastrophe has been visited on so many poor white English girls and women by Muslim immigrants. This time last year. Musk posted on X that: '[Prime Minister] Starmer was complicit in the RAPE OF BRITAIN when he was head of Crown Prosecution for six years (2008-2013)', demanding that he “face charges for his complicity in the worst mass crime in the history of Britain'. This was in response to Phillips’ 'remarkable decision', as minister for the safeguarding of women and girls, to reject a national public inquiry into the sexual grooming of children in Oldham. In the almost totally-unknown town of Telford in rural Shropshire, over a thirty years period, more than 1,000 girls are known to have been raped by Pakistani immigrants. Extrapolated from that, not exponentially but linearly, we easily get a figure of 100,000 girl-victims in England. Extrapolating exponentially, the figure rises towards numbers of the great war-crimes against the women of Austria and Germany in 1945, measurable only in the hundreds of thousands. No wonder women in power in Britain such as Blyth, Cooper and Phillips want the smokescreen of white male guilt to conceal their own complicity-by-inertia. After all, these are university graduates with serious skin in the game, namely their careers. These are 'far more important' than some merely abstract concepts of “justice” to the relatively 'unimportant' poor white girls of all those dreary English provincial towns, surely? (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)
by Myers, an Irish journalist, author and broadcaster who has reported on the wars in Northern Ireland - where he worked throughout the 1970s - Beirut and Bosnia.

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Asia

China
Dec 30, 2025, 9:55 PM CET  New Pentagon maps show the size and estimated ranges of China's vast missile arsenal. Missiles can reach Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, Guam, and even the continental US. China's missile branch, known as the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force has received a lot of investment, it has seen substantial growth and capability upgrades amid the country's military modernization. Beijing builds new platforms for conventional and nuclear strike. The latest Pentagon report on China's military offers estimates for the number of launchers and missiles in the Chinese arsenal, including the country's intercontinental ballistic missiles, key parts of its nuclear deterrent. Chinese ICBMs include missiles like the DF-5 and DF-41. The Pentagon estimates China has 550 ICBM launchers and 400 missiles with estimated ranges beyond 5,500 km, the threshold for classification as an ICBM. For China's medium-range ballistic missiles, such as China's DF-21s or hypersonic DF-17, the Pentagon assesses that China has 300 launchers for 1,300 missiles with ranges between 1,000 and 3,000 km. The report also documented increases in the number of launchers and missiles for some notable systems. China's intermediate-range ballistic missiles, like the DF-26 missile, jumped from 250 launchers in last year's report to 300 this year, and the number of IRBMs total went from 500 to 550. The Pentagon highlighted in its report that the Rocket Force could play an important role in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or other regional conflict. According to the latest report, China's rocket force is prepared to conduct missile attacks against high-value targets, including Taiwan's C2 [command and control] facilities, air bases, and radar sites as well as deter or delay the US or its allies and partners from coming to Taiwan's aid. The Pentagon said that the Rocket Force has continued to rehearse strikes in recent military exercises, including 2024 drills simulating an invasion or blockade of Taiwan. One map in the report shows the estimated reach of Chinese missiles that could be particularly relevant in a fight over Taiwan, weapons such as ship- and shore-launched surface-to-air missiles for knocking out hostile aircraft, as well as anti-ship cruise missiles fired from naval platforms like Chinese destroyers and land-based close- and short-range ballistic missiles. Another Pentagon map shows the estimated reach of China's conventional strike missiles, including the DF-17 and DF-21 MRBMs, the DF-26 IRBM, and the newly fielded DF-27 ICBM, which, like the DF-26 and some DF-21s, has an anti-ship role in addition to land attack. Many of these systems can reach across the first island chain, which includes Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, while longer-range missiles extend toward the second island chain and beyond. The DF-26 weapon, nicknamed the Guam Express, can be armed with either conventional or nuclear warheads and reach US installations on Guam. It can target US aircraft carriers and other surface ships as well. Bombers, like China's H-6, carrying CJ-20 cruise missiles could threaten parts of Alaska. The DF-27 can range parts of the continental United States. The Department of Defense report also looks at China's nuclear strike options, such as land-based ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. This year, at a military parade in Beijing, China unveiled new, previously unseen ICBMs, including the new DF-61 and DF-31BJ. Those weapons, are not included in the Pentagon's assessments. China continues to bolster its nuclear warhead count, estimated at over 600 warheads. The Pentagon still assesses that the Chinese military is on its way to 1,000 warheads by 2030, only a fraction of the US and Russian stockpiles. A Pentagon map estimating the ranges of Chinese missiles available for nuclear strike indicates that three - the DF-5, DF-41, and DF-31 - all have the continental US well within range, while the submarine-launched JL-3 missile can hit most of it from waters near China. Questions remain on the differences in quality and capabilities of Chinese weapons and training compared to the US. The Pentagon also believes China is still navigating the impacts of a vast anti-corruption campaign in the military that has particularly targeted PLARF officials. The campaign could be detrimental if driven by political agendas, or it could deliver long-term improvements if it addresses actual problems within the force. (Source: Business Insider - U.S.)

India
01.01.026  India yesterday officially took over the rotating presidency of the BRICS grouping for 2026. World Bank data shows that the expanded grouping accounts for roughly 49 percent of the global population, 29 percent of worldwide GDP and 23 percent of international trade. In February, Trump cautioned BRICS nations against introducing a shared currency, saying he had warned the bloc that if they want to play games with the dollar, then they're going to be hit with a 100 percent tariff. Facing Trump tariffs, India will likely resist confrontational de-dollarization, and instead promote local currency settlements to maintain strategic autonomy, according to Gandhi,  an associate fellow at India’s Vivekananda International Foundation. India will also push for reforms in multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organisation and International Monetary Fund while encouraging dialogue that reduces fragmentation and promotes stability in global supply chains, she was quoted as saying. At the same time, India will also support reform of global governance institutions like the United Nations Security Council, the World Bank and the IMF, Sharma, a senior research fellow at NatStrat, a New Delhi-based think tank said. He said issues such as food and fuel shortages, debt relief and climate finance will be central to India's 2026 BRICS presidency, which could face some challenge from America's G20 presidency. Meanwhile, Pakistan, which is grappling with economic difficulties, has expressed interest in joining the BRICS-backed New Development Bank as it looks to diversify its sources of financing. Islamabad applied for BRICS membership in 2023 with backing from Russia and China. India is likely to push for clearly defined criteria for BRICS membership so that the bloc does not lose its significance due to [any] unplanned expansion, Sharma said. Gandhi echoed that view, noting that New Delhi wants expansion to enhance the bloc’s effectiveness, rather than politically driven admissions. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

Iran
Friday, January 2, 2026 2:28 PM CET  U.S. President Trump wrote on his Truth Social network that Washington was ’locked and loaded’ and ready to intervene if the Iranian authorities kill peaceful protesters in nationwide demonstrations. Shamkhani, political adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, warned Trump to back off. The people of Iran are well acquainted with the experience of Americans coming to the rescue, from Iraq and Afghanistan to Gaza. Any hand of intervention that approaches Iranian security with pretexts will be severed by a regret-inducing response. Iran’s national security is a red line, not fodder for adventurist tweets, Shamkhani wrote on X. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

(Thursday), Jan 01, 2026, 9:44 am EST  Cost-of-living demonstrations broke out on Sunday in Tehran. The protests spread after students from at least 10 universities joined in on Tuesday. Shopkeepers went on strike over high prices and economic stagnation. Protesters and security forces clashed in several Iranian cities today, with six reported killed. The demonstrations are smaller than the last major outbreak of unrest in 2022. Iranian President Pezeshkian has sought to calm tensions, acknowledging protesters' legitimate demands, and he urged the government today to take action to improve the economic situation. Authorities, however, have also promised to take a firm stance, and have warned against exploiting the situation to sow chaos. On Wednesday evening, the arrest of seven people was described as being affiliated with groups hostile to the Islamic Republic based in the United States and Europe. Iran is in the middle of an extended weekend, with the authorities declaring Wednesday a bank holiday at the last minute, citing the need to save energy during the cold weather. The weekend in Iran begins on Thursday, and Saturday is a long-standing national holiday. The inflation rate in December was 52 percent year-on-year, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, an official body. The national currency, the rial, has lost more than a third of its value against the US dollar over the past year, while double-digit hyperinflation has been undermining Iranians' purchasing power for years. (Source: Barron’s - U.S. / Agence France Presse)

Japan
December 31, 2025  Japan’s deployment of F-15J Fighters was one of the most underrated geopolitical moments of 2025. Japan dispatched F-15J fighters, along with supporting transport aircraft, personnel, and planners, on a tour that took Japanese forces to North America and Europe. The Japanese force visited Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom for a series of high-profile training exercises aimed at deepening interoperability with NATO partners. The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) mission operated out of two different hubs in Europe, RAF Coningsby and Laage Air Base in Germany. The last time an Asian combat force was deployed to Europe - exempting colonial units and the transcontinental Ottoman Empire - was during World War I, when Japanese warships conducted anti-submarine patrols and protected convoys from German and Austrian attacks. Beginning in 1917, 14 Japanese destroyers (with cruisers in support) operated under direct British command out of bases in Malta. These Japanese warships played a key role in protecting British, Australian, New Zealand, and Indian troops aboard. The new era of military cooperation in particular recalls the Anglo-Japanese Alliance (1902–1922), which once linked the two island countries across the Eurasian landmass. The deployment demonstrated that the JASDF’s F-15J fleet has an ongoing modernization program to enhance survivability in contested environments and enable data sharing. The upgrades are also meant to ensure their interoperability with NATO – one of the themes of the September deployment. (Source: The National Interest – U.S.)

Syria
Dec. 31, 2025, 4:02 AM GMT+1 U.S.  Central Command, which oversees the Middle East said in a statement on X yesterday that nearly 25 operatives of the islamic state group were killed or captured in Syria this month. The latest operations followed a Dec. 13 ambush that occurred near the ancient city of Palmyra. Two members of the Iowa National Guard and a civilian interpreter from Michigan were killed, while three other U.S. troops and members of Syria’s security forces were wounded. 11 missions were carried out over the past 10 days and followed initial strikes against is weapons sites and infrastructure on Dec. 19, which hit 70 targets across central Syria. In the operations since, the U.S. military and other forces from the region, including Syria, killed at least seven is members and eliminated four weapons caches, to root out the isis threat posed to U.S. and regional security. Adm. Cooper leads the command. A growing collaboration between the United States and Syria’s relatively new government meant that U.S. forces were able to attack is in areas of the country where they previously did not operate. ’The goal, like in Iraq’, is to ultimately hand over the effort fully to the Syrians. The initial retaliatory strike on is targets in Syria included fighter jets from Jordan. (Source: NBC News - U.S.)

Taiwan
30.12.2025  On day 2 of exercise, the impact of the Chinese military's live-fire drill was inside Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile line, according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry. The ministry also said that 130 PLA aircraft, 14 naval vessels, and eight official ships were operating around Taiwan up until 6 am (2200GMT Monday). 90 out of 130 sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s northern, central, southwestern and eastern ADIZ (air defense identification zone), it added. Drills involving assaults on maritime targets, anti-air and anti-submarine operations were carried out north, south of island. 'Parts of all five of the drill zones designated by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for live-fire drills today are within Taiwan's territorial waters,' ​​​​​​​the Taiwanese military also said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Turkey
31/12/2025  Turkish authorities have arrested 29 individuals as part of ongoing efforts to combat the terrorist organization isis as the Istanbul Public Prosecutor’s Office has announced. 28 of the suspects are accused of spreading isis propaganda on social media. The detentions followed an investigation by the Istanbul Anti-Terrorism Branch, acting on instructions from the Public Prosecutor’s Office. Counter-terrorism teams carried out coordinated raids across 29 locations early Wednesday, seizing three pistols, ammunition, and organizational documents. Turkish Interior Minister Yerlikaya reported the arrest of 357 suspects across 21 provinces during simultaneous anti-isis raids conducted recently nationwide. (Source: SANA - Syria)

Yemen
Dec 30, 2025 5:27 pm KST  Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen's port city of Mukalla today over what it described as a shipment of weapons for the separatist forces of the Southern Transitional Council there that arrived from the United Arab Emirates. The kingdom later directly linked the UAE to the separatists' recent advances in Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain close relations and are members of the OPEC oil cartel, but have competed for influence and international business in recent years. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi had been backing competing sides in Yemen’s decadelong war against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Yemen’s anti-Houthi forces declared a state of emergency today, ending its cooperation with the UAE and ordering all Emirati forces within its territory to evacuate within 24 hours. Sudan is another nation on the Red Sea, where the kingdom and the Emirates support opposing forces in that country’s ongoing war. (Source: The Korea Times - South Korea / AP - U.S.)

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North America

United States
(Jan. 3, 2026)  Maduro indicment (text). (Source: DocumentCloud - U.S.)

January 03, 2026 16:57 IST  If Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, Iran holds the third largest after Saudi Arabia. It is definitely no coincidence that the US President Trump warned Iran yesterday that it was “locked and loaded” to act if Tehran clamped down on protestors. While the action was not clearly defined, it could mean anything, including military action. But the US did walk the talk today when President Trump ordered a strike against Venezuela. It is clear that the US has energy interests in mind when it takes positions against Venezuela and Iran. While Venezuelan oil is very heavy with hydrocarbons, it is the prime source for diesel, on which the world economy runs. The American aim is clear - to establish its oil monopoly in Venezuela. The American influence in Venezuela had waned after the Bolivarian Revolution of 1999. Clearly, Trump wants the US influence back. The Trump-led US strategy is to carve out its own sphere of influence in the western hemisphere as part of the Monroe Doctrine, a cornerstone of US foreign policy, which declared in 1823 the Western Hemisphere as off-limits for any other power. Any act otherwise would be seen as hostile. This Doctrine has become more relevant for Trump than ever before, with Russia and China increasing their footprints in Latin America. Mexico, Paraguay and Nicaragua are already positioned against the US in the South American continent. It is interesting to see that Trump has been vacillating on the Ukraine question. Seemingly, there is a strategy at work here again. If one goes by his recent statements, Trump may be trying to work out a compromise with Russia. It may be indicating to Russia that Washington may recognise the Caucasus and Ukraine to be areas under the Russian sphere of influence if Moscow recognises the western hemisphere as part of the American sphere of influence. Again, the Monroe Doctrine is at work. (Source: The Week – India - India)

January 3, 2026 at 6:25 AM  Venezuelans react outside the El Arepazo in Doral, Florida, after the United States captured Venezuelan leader Maduro today. (Source: Miami Herald - U.S.)
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(3.1.2026)  Secretary of State Rubio suggested the arrest could help reduce tensions, noting that no further military action is expected now that Maduro is detained. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

08:08, 02/01/2026, Friday  The US Army has deactivated a frontline reconnaissance squadron stationed in South Korea. The 5th Air Cavalry Squadron, 17th Cavalry Regiment, ceased operations at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek on December 15. The now-deactivated squadron had been operational in South Korea since May 2022, providing direct aerial reconnaissance and security support for the US Army's 2nd Infantry Division. The unit was equipped with AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and RQ-7B Shadow tactical unmanned aerial vehicles. Analysts suggest the action could signal a strategic review of Washington's longstanding military posture on the Korean Peninsula. The administration of US President Trump could consider reducing the 28,500-strong US Forces Korea (USFK) contingent. Such a move could be motivated by a desire to reallocate military resources to better counter China's growing influence in the broader Indo-Pacific region, a stated priority for Washington. The United States and South Korea are bound by a mutual defense treaty dating back to 1953. The presence of American troops is viewed as ’a cornerstone of deterrence’ against North Korea. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

Jan 01, 2026  First Muslim mayor Mamdani takes office as New York mayor. In a first for the city, Mamdani is using several Korans to be sworn in as mayor - two from his family and one that belonged to Puerto Rico-born Black writer Schomburg, The New York Times reported. Born in Uganda to a family of Indian origin, Mamdani moved to New York at age seven. He became a member of the New York state assembly before being elected mayor. Mamdani, virtually unknown a year ago vows to tackle cost-of-living. He is surrounding himself with seasoned aides recruited from past mayoral administrations and former US president Biden's government. Mamdani has vowed to protect immigrant communities. He has opened dialogue with business leaders, some of whom predicted a massive exodus of wealthy New Yorkers if he won. Real estate leaders have debunked those claims. As a defender of Palestinian rights, Mamdani will have to reassure the Jewish community of his inclusive leadership. (Source: Eastern Eye - United Kingdom)

December 30, 2025 6:28 AM GMT+1T  U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with their delegations, meet in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., on December 29, 2025. Netanyahu said last week that Israel was not seeking a confrontation with Iran, but was aware of the reports, and said he would raise Tehran's activities with Trump. Speaking following the meeting at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida yesterday, Trump said his talks with Netanyahu focused on advancing the fragile Gaza peace deal he brokered and addressing Israeli concerns over Iran and over Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump suggested Tehran may be working to restore its weapons programs after a massive U.S. strike in June. He said the United States could support another major strike on Iran were it to resume rebuilding its ballistic missile or nuclear weapons programs. We know exactly where they're going, what they're doing, and I hope they're not doing it because we don't want to waste fuel on a B-2, Trump added. It's a 37-hour trip both ways. I don't want to waste a lot of fuel. Trump said he wanted to move to the second phase of the ceasefire deal between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas reached in October after two years of fighting in Gaza, a progression that entails international peacekeeping forces deployed in the Palestinian enclave. The first phase of the ceasefire included a partial Israeli withdrawal, an increase in aid and the exchange of hostages for Palestinian detainees and prisoners. Trump's plan to end the Gaza war ultimately calls for Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian territory and Hamas to give up its weapons and forgo a governing role. Israel and Hamas accuse each other of major breaches of the deal and look no closer to accepting the much more difficult steps envisaged for the next phase. Israel has indicated that if Hamas is not disarmed peacefully, it will resume military action to make it do so. Hamas, which has refused to disarm, has been reasserting its control as Israeli troops remain entrenched in about half the territory. There will be hell to pay, Trump warned when asked what he will do if Hamas does not lay down its arms. Trump said that he and Netanyahu did not agree fully on the issue of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Before the meeting, Trump told reporters he would talk to Netanyahu about the possibility of stationing Turkish peacekeepers in Gaza. The deployment of the international security force was mandated by a November 17 U.N. Security Council resolution. Netanyahu said yesterday that Israel was keen to ensure a peaceful border with Syria. (Reuters - United Kingdom)

South America

Colombia
(Saturday ), 3 Jan 2026  The Colombian government condemned Washington’s early Saturday morning attacks on Venezuela and announced plans to fortify its 2,219-kilometre eastern land border, a historic hotbed of rebellion and cocaine production. Maduro’s deposition could aggravate an already deteriorating security situation in Colombia. Refugee advocacy groups warn the country would bear the brunt of possible migration waves triggered by the fallout from the intervention. In an X post today morning, President Petro said the government had bolstered humanitarian provisions on its eastern border, writing, “all the assistance resources at our disposal have been deployed in case of a mass influx of refugees.” To date, Colombia has received the highest number of Venezuelan refugees worldwide, with nearly 3 million of the approximately 8 million people who have left the country settling in Colombia. An operation is likely to prove challenging now, with Colombia losing roughly 70 percent of all humanitarian funds after the Trump administration shuttered its USAID programmes in the country last year. Maduro’s removal raises difficult questions for Petro, who has been engaged in a war of words with Trump since the US president assumed office last year. In recent months he condemned Washington’s military buildup in the Caribbean and alleged a Colombian fisherman had been killed in territorial waters. Trump has on multiple occasions floated military strikes against drug production sites in Colombia. Experts say it is unlikely the White House would take unilateral action given their historic cooperation with Colombian security forces. Despite Petro condemning Washington’s intervention in Venezuela, he previously called Maduro a dictator and joined the US and other nations in refusing to recognise the strongman’s fraudulent re-election as president in 2024. Rather than supporting Maduro, the Colombian leader has positioned himself as a defender of national sovereignty and international law. Today, Petro called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, which Colombia joined as a temporary member just days ago. The Colombian government held an emergency national security meeting at 3am (09:00GMT) announcing the mobilisation of state forces to secure the border. The primary national security risk to Colombia following the attacks stems from the National Liberation Army (ELN), which controls nearly the entire border with Venezuela. The ELN positions itself as a bastion against US imperialism in the region. The ELN, a left-wing group and the largest remaining rebel force in the country, have been vocal as recently as December in its preparations to defend the country against ’imperialist intervention’. The rebel group is heavily involved in cocaine trafficking and operates on both sides of the border. It has benefited from ties with the Maduro government. US intervention threatens the group’s transnational operations. In December, ELN ordered Colombians to stay home and bombed state installations across the country, an action it described as a response to US aggression. The Colombian government has ramped up security measures in anticipation of possible retaliatory action by the ELN following Maduro’s removal. “All capabilities of the security forces have been activated to protect the population, strategic assets, embassies, military and police units, among others, as well as to prevent any attempted terrorist action by transnational criminal organisations, such as the ELN cartel,” read a statement on Saturday morning issued by Colombia’s Ministry of Defence. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

Venezuela
(3 January 2026)  Around 02:00 local time (06:00 GMT), loud explosions were heard in Caracas, while plumes of smoke were seen rising over the city. Places hit by strikes include military airfield, La Carlota, in the centre of the capital and the main military base of Fuerte Tiuna. Surrounding communities were also without power. Videos of explosions and helicopters flying overhead have been circulating on social media. The Venezuelan government said the states of Miranda, Aragua and La Guaira were also hit. Maduro was captured by the US army's Delta force - the military's top counter terrorism unit - according to CBS. The country's defence minister López said that Venezuela would resist the presence of foreign troops. Venezuela's government issued an official statement, it described the attack as an attempt to seize Venezuela's strategic resources, particularly its oil and minerals in an attempt to forcibly break the political independence of the nation. Trump told today that Maduro and his wife were taken from a house that was more like a fortress. He said no US forces were killed and there were few injuries in the operation, which he said he watched live. Maduro and his wife were on a ship on their way to New York City, Trump said. A CIA source inside the Venezuelan government helped the US track Maduro's location in the lead-up to his capture, CBS News reported. Trump is due to hold a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida at 11:00 EST (16:00 GMT). (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

January 3, 2026 6:03 AM  The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country, Trump wrote on Truth Social today. (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

Jan 3, 2026, 06:00 AM EST  The explosions in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, early on the third day of 2026 - at least seven blasts - sent people rushing into the streets, while others took to social media to report hearing and seeing the explosions. It was not immediately clear if there were casualties on either side. The attack itself lasted less than 30 minutes and it was unclear if more actions lay ahead, though Trump said in his post that the strikes were carried out successfully. Multiple explosions rang out and low-flying aircraft swept through Caracas, as Maduro’s government immediately accused the United States of attacking civilian and military installations. The Venezuelan government called it an imperialist attack and urged citizens to take to the streets. Trump announced the developments on Truth Social shortly after 4:30 a.m. ET. 'This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement, Trump said. He set a news conference for later today morning. Maduro was indicted in March 2020 on narco-terrorism conspiracy charges in the Southern District of New York. Maduro last appeared on state television yesterday while meeting with a delegation of Chinese officials in Caracas. Under Venezuelan law the vice president, Rodríguez, would take power. There was no confirmation that had happened, though she did issue a statement after the strike. “We do not know the whereabouts of President Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores, Rodriguez said. “We demand proof of life.” Secretary of State Rubio told Sen. Lee, R-Utah that Maduro “has been arrested by U.S. personnel to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States,” Lee posted on X. Venezuela’s government responded to the attack with a call to action. “People to the streets! it said in a statement. “The Bolivarian Government calls on all social and political forces in the country to activate mobilization plans and repudiate this imperialist attack. The statement added that Maduro had ordered all national defense plans to be implemented and declared a state of external disturbance. That state of emergency gives him the power to suspend people’s rights and expand the role of the armed forces. Armed individuals and uniformed members of a civilian militia took to the streets of a Caracas neighborhood long considered a stronghold of the ruling party. But in other areas of the city, the streets remained empty hours after the attack. Parts of the city remained without power, but vehicles moved freely. Smoke could be seen rising from the hangar of a military base in Caracas, while another military installation in the capital was without power. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned all commercial and private U.S. pilots that the airspace over Venezuela and the small island nation of Curacao, just off the coast of the country to the north, was off limits due to safety-of-flight risks associated with ongoing military activity. The Armed Services committees in both houses of Congress, which have jurisdiction over military matters, have not been notified by the administration of any actions. Cuba, a supporter of the Maduro government and a longtime adversary of the United States, called for the international community to respond to what president Bermúdez called the criminal attack on X. President Milei of Argentina praised the claim by his close ally, Trump, that Maduro had been captured with a political slogan he often deploys to celebrate right-wing advances: “Long live freedom, dammit! (Source: Huffpost - U.S.)
/by Toropin and AP journalist Mascaro 'reported from Washington'/

January 2, 2026 3:08am EST  Venezuelan President Maduro said yesterday that his government is open to negotiating an agreement with the United States. In a pre-taped interview aired on state television, Maduro said Venezuela is ready to discuss an agreement to combat drug trafficking with the U.S. 'If they want oil, Venezuela is ready for U.S. investment, like with Chevron, whenever they want it, wherever they want it and however they want it.' Chevron Corp. is the only major U.S. oil company currently exporting Venezuelan crude to the United States. Maduro said the U.S. wants a regime change in Venezuela and access to its oil reserves through a months-long pressure campaign that began with a major military deployment to the Caribbean Sea in August. He said it is clear the U.S. wants to impose themselves through threats, intimidation and force. The interview was recorded on New Year’s Eve. At least 114 people have been killed since the U.S. began bombing alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific in early September. U.S. authorities have also seized two ships carrying sanctioned oil. In recent weeks, Trump has intensified pressure on Maduro, ordering a total blockade of oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, designating his regime a foreign terrorist organization, and accusing it of 'using stolen U.S. assets to fund terrorism, drug trafficking and other criminal activity’. (Source: Fox News – U.S.)

Tuesday 30 December 2025 at 6:50am  US President Trump has indicated that the US has hit a dock facility along a shore. Sources told CNN that the CIA carried out a drone strike earlier this month on a port facility on the coast of Venezuela, marking the first known US attack on a target inside that country. It is understood the drone strike targeted a facility on the Venezuelan coast that the US believed belonged to the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and was being used to store drugs. No one was present at the facility at the time it was struck. (Source: ITW News - United Kingdom)

Globalization

December 2025  Global Conflict Tracker (Source: The Council on Foreign Relations - U.S.)
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Ukrajna elveszítette a háborút ?
Interjú Kusaival,
korábbi pekingi nagykövettel,
a Pázmány Péter Katolikus Egyetem címzetes egyetemi docensével.
Világos érvelés, kritikus vélemény az EU-csúcs döntéseiről,
az orosz vagyon befagyasztásáról,
Ukrajna finanszírozásáról,
a nemzetközi politikai erőviszonyok átrendeződéséről.

Műsorvezető: Fekete

(Forrás: YouTube / Hit Tv)
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38 688 megtekintés 2025. XII. 20. óta.

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Europe

Hungary
December 19, 2025  Hungary’s paradox. For over a decade, Hungary, under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has faced relentless condemnation, legal battles, and staggering EU fines totaling hundreds of millions of dollars for its hardline stance against mass migration and forced migrant quotas. The blueprint of the Hungarian way was forged amid the chaos of the 2015 migration crisis, when hundreds of thousands of asylum-seekers, primarily from the Middle East, surged toward Europe via the Balkans. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán moved decisively, establishing a tripartite strategy that prioritized border security over open-door policies to defend the EU’s external borders. The Hungarian policy rests on three pillars: ironclad border fences, a broadened interpretation of the safe third country concept, and a zero-tolerance approach to asylum-seekers crossing irregularly. During the summer of 2015, as hundreds of thousands of migrants from Syria, Afghanistan, and other Middle-Eastern countries poured through the Balkans en route mainly to Germany, the Hungarian government decided to erect a 108-mile-long razor-wire fence along its Southern border with Serbia, finishing it in the same year. The fence was subsequently extended to the Croatian-Hungarian border and reinforced by sensors, drones, thermal cameras, and a secondary fence during the following years. Orbán minced no words: “We don’t see these people as Muslim refugees. We see them as Muslim invaders,' warning that unchecked flows threaten Europe’s Christian roots. As the bloc grapples with persistent pressures on its frontiers and with unassimilable masses at home, key elements of the “Hungarian way” - robust physical barriers, a broadened interpretation of safe third countries, and mechanisms enabling swift returns at the border - are being adopted wholesale. As a frontline state that has virtually eliminated irregular arrivals through its innovations, Budapest is a victim ’of its own efficacy’. The European Court of Justice, aligning with the Commission’s 'pro-open-borders' stance, ruled in 2020 and 2023 that Hungary’s extensive use of safe third country (STCs) and border pushbacks 'breached' EU law. In 2024, it imposed a $230 million lump-sum fine and a $1.17 million daily fine for continued noncompliance - for an ’unprecedented and exceptionally serious breach.’ By Q3 2026, penalties could surpass $1 billion, equating to 0.4 percent of Hungary’s GDP. As EU leadership is gradually incorporating elements of Orbán’s initial approach, Hungary continues to fund its border defense and is paying a fine for keeping the migrants out. Hungary is vindicated, yet exorbitantly penalized. This dissonance reveals the unelected eurocrats’ detachment from sovereign realities and rising public backlash against unmanaged migration. As Orbán’s realism permeates the bloc, Hungary’s vindication is bittersweet: penalized for foresight while its roadmap saves Europe from itself. In an Orwellian twist, fines for defying outdated ideals may simply be rebranded as solidarity contributions once the Hungarian model becomes official doctrine. Europe must confront this hypocrisy, lest it erode the very union it seeks to preserve. Actual progress demands not punishment for effectiveness, but partnership in securing shared borders. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Palotai, a senior fellow at the Religious Freedom Institute; Veres, the international director of the Danube Institute. Prior to his current position, he worked as a researcher at the Budapest-based Migration Research Institute.

Czechia
27.12.2025 10:00  Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš said he spoke by phone yesterday - on the second Christmas holiday [Boxing Day] - with U.S. President Trump. The discussion focused on war, migration, Europe, and the Visegrad Four, according to a statement Babiš posted on the social network X. The draft program statement of Babiš’ government identifies the renewal and strengthening of relations within the V4 - which includes the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia - as an important foreign policy priority, with cooperation based on mutual respect, common interests, and effective regional cooperation. The Czech prime minister said the conversation also touched on a past visit to the White House, when he and Trump met in March 2019 along with their wives, Monika and Melania. Trump said he believed the two leaders would achieve success together in areas such as defense, energy, and migration, similar to the period when their previous terms overlapped. The call followed Trump’s public congratulations last week on Babiš’ recent appointment as prime minister, posted on Trump’s social network Truth Social. Babiš said last week that he was pleased by Trump’s congratulations, but that another meeting is not currently on the agenda. He added that it is more important for European leaders and the American president to find a way to end the war in Ukraine. International media outlets like The Economist and The New York Times have referred to the Czech prime minister as the Czech Trump, due to Babiš’ 'populist style' and status as a billionaire businessman. (Source: Expats.cz – Czechia)

Germany
29.12.2025  '  'Germany’s arms and military equipment exports fell" to around €8.4 billion ($9.8 billion) in 2025 due to a fall in arms aid to Ukraine versus the previous year. 'Germany’s arms exports to Ukraine came in at $9.5 billion in 2024'. 'Berlin approved the sale of $1.3 billion worth of arms and military equipment to Kyiv this year'. 'The government approved $9.8 billion worth of arms and military equipment sales as of Dec. 8'. 'Germany’s arms and military equipment exports "fell" after reaching record highs in 2023 and 2024 with $14.3 billion and $15.6 billion, respectively'.  '  (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Dec 26, 2025 - 19:26  Leader of the European People’s Party (EPP) in the European Parliament, Weber, called for EU military force - troops under the 'European flag' - today, to secure peace in Ukraine. Europe must take charge of Ukraine’s security instead of leaving it to Trump and US forces, he said. (Source: Euractiv - headquarters Brussels, Belgium)

December 24, 2025  Ukraine is the least strategically important for projecting American power and also the most likely to survive without American support, 'given that the rest of Europe could shore up Ukraine’s defenses'. Israel occupies a very different position. The United States has no other reliable allies in the Middle East, a region that remains geostrategically indispensable: it still produces about a third of the world’s oil, serves as a central conduit for global trade, and sits astride critical maritime chokepoints. Israel’s role as a reliable partner in an unstable region makes it uniquely valuable. Similarly, Taiwan sits as an outpost of democracy in the Indo-Pacific, the region which few dispute will be the most strategically and economically important heading into the middle of the 21st century. If the United States made clear that it could or would not help Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Taipei would almost certainly surrender to Chinese aggression. In other words, Eastern Europe is both the least strategically important region that the US is engaged in, and also the theater it can most readily pass on to another power, the Western Europeans. It is difficult to imagine an independent Europe’s core strategic objectives diverging sharply from those of the United States. Europe has every incentive to preserve a rules-based international system from which it disproportionately benefits. For all its wealth and cultural prestige, Europe faces profound structural challenges: prolonged economic stagnation, dense regulatory burdens, aging societies heavily dependent on increasingly generous welfare states, and a demographic trajectory that makes those commitments steadily harder to finance. For decades, these vulnerabilities have been cushioned by American defense guarantees and cheap Russian energy, both of which encouraged strategic complacency. That Germany’s new chancellor is now openly questioning long-taboo assumptions, including the sustainability of existing retirement ages, suggests that this era of denial may finally be ending. If so, 'Europe’s rearmament will have achieved more than greater military capacity; it will have forced the continent to confront the conditions of its own continued sovereignty - a development not only in Europe’s interest, but in that of the wider world'. 'The success or failure of any future European rearmament will depend substantially on Berlin.' (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Diddams, the managing editor of Providence: A Journal of Christianity & American Foreign Policy

(19 December 2025) 11:40  How big a humiliation is this outcome for Germany’s Merz? He argued hard for the frozen assets scheme that has now flopped. The whole episode tells you a lot about the man who was only elected as chancellor this year. Less cautious than his predecessors, Friedrich Merz is known for a shoot-from-the-hip style. His supporters may argue that ’Europe needs’ leaders like him; a man who’s willing to stick his neck out on the big debates. Others may question whether the chancellor needs to get better at recognising when a plan just isn’t going to fly. As Merz has learned, being politically bold brings risks. And ’if you want to lead from the front’, you need others to follow. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
by Parker, BBC News Berlin correspondent

European Commission
Wednesday 24 December 2025 15:42, UK  The European Commission is warning of possible action against the United States after travel bans were imposed on five Europeans accused of pressuring American technology firms to censor or suppress US viewpoints. EU Commission President der Leyen said the European Union will continue 'protecting freedom of speech". Breton, a former French finance minister engaged in a social media dispute last year with tech billionaire Musk over airing an online interview with Trump in the months before the US election. The other Europeans are Ahmed, chief executive of the Centre for Countering Digital Hate who has links to senior Labour figures, Ballon and von Hodenberg, leaders of the German organisation HateAid, and Melford, who runs the Global Disinformation Index. Mr Rubio has said the five had advanced foreign government censorship campaigns against Americans and US companies, creating 'potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences' for the United States. Mr Breton and the other Europeans were affected by a new visa policy announced in May that bars entry to foreigners accused of censoring protected speech in the United States. (Source: Sky News - United Kingdom)

December 19, 2025 7:52 PM CET  EU taxpayers will have to pay €3 billion per year in borrowing costs as part of a plan to raise common debt which is largely financed by EU governments to finance Ukraine’s defense against Russia, according to senior European Commission officials. Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia will not join the bloc’s other 24 countries in sharing the debt burden, but agreed not to obstruct Ukraine’s financing needs. Belgium was strongly opposed to using the frozen Russian assets - about €210 billion - most of which are held in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear. The bloc’s leaders agreed in the early hours of Friday to raise €90 billion for the next two years, backed by the EU budget, to ensure Kyiv’s war chest won’t run dry in April. The new plan would provide Ukraine with €45 billion next year, handing Kyiv a crucial lifeline as it enters its fifth year of fighting. The remaining funds would be disbursed in 2027. Ukraine will only have to repay the loan once Russia ends the war and pays war reparations. That seems unlikely. The war-ravaged Ukraine faces a budget shortfall of €71.7 billion next year. The European Commission will propose a so-called enhanced cooperation early next week, giving the 24 countries a legal platform to raise joint debt. Many of the hallmarks of the €210 billion financing package for Ukraine will be transferred to the new plan for common debt. These include payout structures in tranches, anti-corruption safeguards, and an outline for how much money should be spent on Kyiv’s military and the country’s budgetary needs. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

European Council
23/12/2025 - 13:46 GMT+1  A behind-the-scenes look at how the European Union agreed an unprecedented loan to keep Ukraine going. On the table was an innovative plan to issue a reparations loan for Kyiv based on immobilised Russian assets held mostly in Belgium - option preferred by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Commission President der Leyen. The resistance from the Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever was the main obstacle. On Wednesday night, EU leaders and their counterparts from candidate countries hoping to join the bloc gathered for a working dinner. That same night, der Leyen, Merz and de Wever excused themselves from the EU-Western Balkans dinner to take a sideline meeting about the reparations loan. The Belgian prime minister – angered by his portrayal as a Russian asset in some media – was clear that Ukraine had to receive a financial lifeline, but that it shouldn't come at his country's sole expense or risk jeopardising the Belgian financial sector and, possibly, the eurozone. By the time of the Wednesday night was a sideline discussion, with Rome growing louder about the knock-on effects the reparations loan could have. Fuelling those concerns was a report by credit rating agency Fitch had put Euroclear, the depository holding the Russian frozen assets in Belgium, on negative watch, citing liquidity and legal risks. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ’teased’ his Belgian counterpart, saying he would be submitted to torture. Orbán also 'created confusion' after he declared that the reparations loan had been removed from the points of discussion for the summit. Orbán, the most senior head of state in the European Council knows the Brussels machine well. He was on to something. The summit started with a declaration by der Leyen: ’EU leaders would not exit the building’ until a solution on how to fund Ukraine was found. Behind closed doors, Zelenskyy addressed the 27. He told leaders that Russia should pay for the damage done to his country, and referred to the reparations loan as a ’smart and fair approach.’ After Zelenskyy left the assembled leaders, he employed a much more severe tone at the press conference, warning that without a cash injection by the spring at the latest, Ukraine's war effort would be dented. By the start of dinner, the reparations loan was the main subject of discussion. Der Leyen, Merz and Frederiksen all spoke about the merits of the proposal, arguing it would keep Ukraine well-funded and that Russia would have to pay for the damage under the principle of you break it, you pay. Different leaders around the table asked for time to speak. Giorgia Meloni made a detailed and well-thought out long intervention casting doubt on the plan. Orbán also spoke against it. Other leaders were aware that they would have to ask permission of their national parliaments to commit to something they could not even quantify. Council President Costa understood the reparation loan was stuck and he took the lead, as der Leyen couldn't. He reminded leaders that the Commission had presented an alternative to cover the €90 billion Ukraine would need for next year and 2027 through joint borrowing backed by the EU budget. It would require a unanimous vote. It is difficult to see how Ukraine will ever pay the €90 billion back if Moscow doesn’t pay reparations. With plan B in the open, Orbán with his Czech counterpart Andrej Babiš and Slovak prime minister Robert Fico were meeting privately at the Hungarian room in the Council building to discuss a way for the EU to issue joint debt without their input; countries willing to pay up for Kyiv would pay in, while the three of them would get an opt-out. Babiš floated the idea of using enhanced cooperation as foreseen in the EU treaties. Orbán posted a picture of the three's meeting on social media. Babiš posted his own confirmation on X telling his followers: Keep your fingers crossed for me that it turns out well. Once their agreement was established, and with the legal proposal in writing, the summit moved fast towards a deal. The Hungarian prime minister is deeply sceptical of Zelenskyy and his government, but it is not in his interest to have Ukraine collapse. As Orbán exited the summit, he lifted his hands in front of reporters. "We are innocent." With the deal done, Belgian PM de Wever celebrated a victory for Ukraine, Europe and international law. He had held his ground, understanding that resistance to the reparation loan went further than Brussels and riding a wave of cross-party and public support in Belgium. Costa said the EU had promised to back Ukraine and had now proved it was able to do so. To the leaders who wanted a different solution, Costa seemed a more honest broker than der Leyen, seen as too close to Berlin. Commission president der Leyen had been sidelined in negotiations during the night as the talks moved away from the reparations loan. It was also a disappointment for Frederiksen, the Danish prime minister hosting the rotating presidency of the EU on its final summit. For everyone to save face, the conclusions included a line suggesting that the immobilised Russian assets could be used in the future but not specifying how. As for German chancellor Merz, who had lobbied intensively both publicly and privately for the reparations loan, the outcome was a cold shower at an EU summit – the biggest European stage a head of state can hope for. He ended up with a solution Berlin had long campaigned against: more EU borrowing. (Source: Euronewsm - based in Lyon, France)
/AP photo/: 'Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz and European Commission President der Leyen.

European Union
22 December 2025  One of the primary drivers of the French Revolution was the monarchy’s fiscal collapse, accelerated by its financing of the American Revolutionary War. Morally, supporting American independence was a justifiable cause. But practically? It bankrupted the state, failed to bring the expected economic benefits, and created the conditions for the monarchy’s overthrow. Europe is walking the same path in Ukraine. The idea that aggressive powers are never rewarded is a nice bedtime story, but history - from Frederick the Great to the Prussian invasion of France in 1871 - tells us otherwise. By overextending ourselves financially and militarily for a conflict we cannot sustain, European governments are delegitimising themselves at home. You cannot demand that your citizens sacrifice their living standards for a war in the Donbas when they are worried about the cost of heating their homes. This brings us to the second pillar of Europe’s decline: The Soviet-style prioritisation of ideology over economic reality. Nowhere is this clearer than in our energy policy. We are shutting down blast furnaces and aluminium smelters in the name of saving the planet, while our geopolitical rivals expand theirs. You can go green, or you can go to war, but you cannot do both. You cannot fight a war of attrition if you have deindustrialised your economy to satisfy an environmentalist religion that treats empirical evidence as heresy. It is complete madness. We have created a regulatory regime where saving a single salmon or protecting a nesting site takes precedence over national security and economic viability. Then there is the cultural dimension. Young German men are asking a very logical question: You want us to pay high taxes to support a migration policy that imports young men from Syria who live on welfare, and then you want to conscript us to fight a Russian tank in Eastern Europe? You cannot spend 40 years of a fantasy by Washington and London teaching your youth that nationalism is evil, that patriotism is suspect, and that the military is bad, and then expect them to suddenly rush to the recruitment office. The social contract is broken. The Green Party - once the pacifists - are now the loudest militarists, while the only people with actual military experience seem to be in the AfD. It is a total inversion of reality. People feel this disconnect. They feel it when they visit a Christmas market and see armed military guards next to the mulled wine stand. We are told crime stats are fine, but the anxiety is real. A society where mundane activities require military protection is not a healthy society. This is why voters in Austria, the Netherlands, and increasingly Germany are looking toward Hungary and asking why the Hungarians don’t have these problems. If these grievances are not addressed, the system will break. If the establishment tries to ban parties, censor speech with "democracy shields,' and prevent political change, they only make the eventual eruption more violent. The Soviet Union thought it was eternal in 1988. The French monarchy thought it was secure in 1788. The EU thinks it is safe today. They are wrong. The EU could be gone in four years: A revolutionary eruption is coming. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)
by Schoellhammer

Russia
(Monday), Dec 29, 2025 AT 11:25 AM EST  ’Ukraine carried out a terrorist attack using 91 long-range uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) against the Russian president’s state residence’, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov told reporters in Moscow. Lavrov has claimed that President Putin's state residence in the Novgorod region was the target. The minister said that all UAVs were destroyed by air defense systems, adding: No information has been received about casualties or damage caused by UAV debris. Typical Russian lies, Zelensky dismissed the claim in a post on X. Lavrov connected the alleged attack on Putin's residence to the peace talks. “We draw attention to the fact that this action was carried out during a period of intensive negotiations between Russia and the United States on a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict," Lavrov said, per Interfax. "Such reckless actions will not go unanswered. The targets of retaliatory strikes and the timing of their execution by the Russian Armed Forces have been determined. "At the same time, we do not intend to withdraw from the negotiation process with the United States. "However, in view of the final transformation of the criminal Kyiv regime, which has shifted to a policy of state terrorism, Russia’s negotiating positions will be revised." Russia is demanding that Ukraine hand over the remaining areas of the Donbas still under its control, or Moscow will take them by force. (Source: Newsweek - U.S.)

(Monday, 22 December 2025)  In Miami, the US separately met the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, with the meetings yielding optimistic statements but no clear progress to bring the end of Moscow's nearly four-year war on Ukraine any closer. US President Trump's special envoy Witkoff said he and his Ukrainian counterpart Umerov had worked on aligning positions on a 20-point draft peace plan put forward by Ukraine earlier this month. The plan is an alternative to a proposal presented by the US in November, which was seen as favourable to Moscow. Before Russian envoy Dmitriev even returned to Moscow from Florida, Kremlin foreign policy aide Ushakov told reporters that the European and Ukrainian changes to the peace proposal would not improve the chances of peace being achieved. Today, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov accused EU countries of having a firm aspiration to derail potential Russia-US agreements on Ukraine and to in general prevent Russia-American relations getting healthier. He also said European countries were possessed by a maniacal fear of a Russian attack. Russia was ready to confirm in a legal agreement that it had no intention of attacking either the EU or Nato, Ryabkov added, echoing previous comments from Putin. "We've never planned to [attack Europe], but if they want to hear it from us, well, let's do it, we'll put it in writing," Putin said in November. Today evening, strikes hit port infrastructure in Odesa, damaging a civilian vessel. On Sunday night, strikes cut off electricity for 120,000 people and sparked a fire at a major port which destroyed dozens of containers of flour and vegetable oil. Last week, a ballistic missile strike on the Pivdenniy port east of Odesa killed eight people and injured at least 30. Commander of the air force for the region Karpenko saw dismissed over the weekend. Another attack earlier in the week temporarily cut off the Odesa region's only bridge linking Ukraine and Moldova. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

United Kingdom
December 28, 2025 11:57am EST  The total number of Muslims is accounting for about 6% of the U.K.'s population. According to a March 2025 report by the Muslim Council of Britain, the country’s Muslim population increased by 1.2 million between 2011 and 2021. Critics are arguing the display of Palestinian flags on public buildings represents an abandonment of traditional British values, and that immigrant communities are dictating community values. Several councils in major cities, all with sizable immigrant communities - including Sheffield, Preston, Bradford and others - chose to raise the Palestinian flag last month to honor the United Nations International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People. Britain should follow America’s model of nation-building as the U.K. wrestles with imported disintegration. Importing 10 million people in 25 years has a ruinous consequence. Parts of the country seem to care more about causes happening thousands of miles from its borders. In August, a group of concerned citizens started operation Raise the Colours, which called for people to put their flags up where they live and in their everyday lives to rally Britons. The online movement encouraged Britons to continue putting up England’s St. George's Cross and Union Jack flags. From the left, many were angered at the proliferation of the flags, complaining they represent anti-migration and 'far-right' sentiment. 58% of 2024 Labour voters perceive the English flag as a racist symbol. Prime Minister Keir Starmer recognized a Palestinian state in September. A few days later, Starmer delivered an impassioned speech to the Labour Party’s annual conference as his center-left party pushed back against critics who said it had abandoned patriotism. 68% of Pakistani/Bangladeshi adults are believing that the England flag has become a racist symbol, compared to 54% of those of mixed ethnicity, 51% of those with Indian heritage and 43% of Black adults. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)

Europe
December 27, 2025  Vice-President Vance warned yesterday that France and the United Kingdom could pose a future security risk to the US if what he called Islamist-adjacent ideas were to gain political influence. Speaking in an interview with UK-based online outlet UnHerd, Vance argued that the backlash over immigration has left Europe without a very good sense of itself. There are Islamist-aligned or Islamist-adjacent people who hold office in European countries right now, he added, without specifying who exactly he referred to. For this reason, it is absolutely possible to see Islamist-adjacent views rise to power in a European nuclear power, like Paris or London, in 15 years. The issue was of direct concern to Washington. ’If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with very destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US.’ Washington will have to have certain moral conversations with Europe. Earlier this month, the US Trump administration released its new security strategy, painting a dire picture of Europe’s political and economic trajectory. The document emphasised a US ambition to restore European greatness to a continent Washington said is facing economic decline and the stark prospect of civilisational erasure. (Source: Eurasia Review - U.S. / Euractiv - headquarters Brussels, Belgium)

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Europe

Russia
December 20, 2025, Saturday // 12:02  Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed a decree instructing the Defense Ministry to end a series of military agreements with 11 Western nations, NATO countries. The decree specifies the termination of multiple bilateral defense agreements, such as the pact between Russia’s Defense Ministry and Germany’s Ministry of Defense, signed in Moscow on April 13, 1993. Additional agreements terminated include: Belgium (December 19, 2001); Bulgaria (August 4, 1992); Croatia (December 18, 1998); the Czech Republic (April 16, 2002); Denmark (September 8, 1994); the Netherlands (June 18, 1997I); Norway (December 15, 199I); Poland (July 7, 1993); Romania (March 28, 1994) and the United Kingdom (March 18, 1997). /Source: Novinite - Bulgaria/

December 20, 2025 4:49 AM  Russia is moving swiftly to expand the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multimodal trade network spanning Russia, Central Asia, Iran, and India, linking Northern Europe with South Asia. For Moscow, the corridor is a strategic lifeline, allowing Russian goods and energy to bypass the long and increasingly insecure maritime routes through the Black Sea, Suez Canal, and Red Sea. Its exports currently rely on the Black Sea route, controlled by Turkey, before passing through the Mediterranean and Suez Canal. This path is long, costly, exposed to geopolitical instability. The INSTC combines rail, road, and maritime routes and offers a direct alternative: Russian cargo travels by rail to Azerbaijan's Baku port, crosses the Caspian Sea, and then continues through through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan northern Iran via the Rasht-Astara railway to Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf. From there, goods can reach India and South Asia efficiently. It ultimately connects Russia's northern cities with Indian ports such as Mumbai, cutting transit times nearly in half compared with traditional Suez Canal routes. It reduces vulnerability under Western sanctions while strengthening trade ties with India and potentially China. Iran, meanwhile, stands to emerge as a central hub in Eurasian trade, gaining influence without deploying military force. Earlier this week, Russia and Iran announced plans to accelerate work on the INSTC, signaling a renewed push to complete the corridor. Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, met Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Transport Savelyev in Tehran to review steps toward full operation. In a separate discussion, President Putin pressed Iranian Parliament Speaker Pezeshkian on progress with the Rasht-Astara railway, a critical 162.5-kilometer segment linking Russia's rail network directly to southern Iran's Bandar Abbas port. Today, more than 106 kilometers of the Rasht-Astara line are complete. The INSTC could eventually link with East-West routes to China and Europe, forming a fully integrated Eurasian rail and shipping network. Moscow and Tehran expand a corridor capable of reshaping global logistics and regional power dynamics. (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

Ukraine
Dec 18, 2025  Diplomats in Brussels dismissed the notion of fast-track Ukraine EU bid as nonsense: There needs to be an appetite for enlargement that isn’t there. Trying to accelerate Ukraine’s entry into the European Union by 2027 makes sense as part of the U.S.-sponsored efforts to end the war with Russia. This appears a practical compromise, given Zelensky’s concession that Ukraine will drop its aspiration to join NATO. But Ukraine isn’t ready, and Europe can’t afford it. Ukraine is nowhere near ready to meet the EU’s exacting requirements for membership. And it has been abundantly clear since the start of the war that Russia’s NATO red line will never change. Russia has verbalized its opposition at least since Putin’s Munich Security Conference speech in 2007, when he said that NATO expansion ’represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust.’ He followed that up at the 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit by saying, ’we view the appearance of a powerful military bloc on our borders...as a direct threat to the security of our country.’ At the start of November, in presenting its enlargement report, the EU said that it could admit new members as early as 2030, with Montenegro the most advanced in negotiations. The EU enlargement report on Ukraine downgraded the country’s status from A+ to B, largely in light of the corruption scandal that first erupted in the summer and that rumbles on today. The report indicated that Ukraine had made good progress on just 11 of the 33 chapters required for accession. It has made limited progress on 7 of the chapters, including on corruption, public procurement, company law and competition policy. It has yet to finalize negotiations on any of the chapters. In July, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz commented that Ukraine was unlikely to join before 2034. The EU has already formalized its next seven year budget through to that time, coming in at $2.35 trillion. Ukrainian membership of the EU would come with an enormous price tag. In total, according to a 2023 estimate, Ukraine could be eligible for over $31 billion per year in EU subsidies should it join on equal terms to existing member states. Neighbouring Poland, by far the largest recipient of EU subsidies, has a proposed allocation of $145 billion in the upcoming budget; bigger, wealthier France $106 billion, Italy $102 billion and Germany $80.5 billion. Unlike Poland, those countries pay into the budget more than they receive. Lower subsidies would effectively mean they had to pay in more. Agricultural subsidies, from which Ukraine might benefit to the tune of $113.5 billion over an EU budget cycle of seven years would lead to a 20.3% cut to agriculture subsidies to farmers in other member states. That would lead to France losing around $2.2 billion per year in farming subsidies, and Poland losing around $1.2 billion. Polish farmers have consistently protested since the start of the war at the inflow of cheap Ukrainian food products. French farmers have historically been extremely protectionist and will almost certainly resist any loss of their subsidies. So the economic cost of delivering Ukrainian membership may not be politically viable any time soon, and certainly not before 2034, as the German premier has indicated. Russian President Putin has dropped his opposition to EU membership for Ukraine. Ukraine needs hope that EU membership will sweeten the bitter pill of losing out on NATO. If Ukraine is allowed to jump the queue, other countries much further forward in the accession process, such as Montenegro may rightly ask, ‘what about us?’ (Source: Responsible Statecraft - U.S.)
by Proud, who was a member of His Britannic Majesty's Diplomatic Service from 1999 to 2023, a Non-Resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute. He served as the Economic Counsellor at the British Embassy in Moscow from July 2014 to February 2019. His recently published memoir: "A Misfit in Moscow: How British diplomacy in Russia failed, 2014-2019"

December 14, 2025 09:17 - 37.  Lviv's cemetery keeps growing. The city has had to open a new burial site to accommodate the daily funerals of fallen soldiers. The expanding cemetery shows the devastating loss Ukraine is facing as the fight against the Russian invasion is in its fourth year. (Source: Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty - U.S.)
/Video, photo/

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Asia

China
Monday 29 December 2025 07:12 GMT  China began fresh - 'Justice Mission 2025' - military drills using the army, air force and navy around Taiwan on Monday after the US cleared the largest arms sale ever to Taipei. They come less than two weeks after the US announced $11.1bn in arms sales to Taiwan, the largest-ever weapons package for the island. China's military said it had deployed fighter jets, bombers, unmanned aerial vehicles, long-range rockets, and would practice striking mobile land-based targets while simulating a coordinated attack on the island from multiple directions. Col Shi, spokesperson for the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theatre Command, said the drills would be conducted in the Taiwan Straits and areas to the north, southwest, southeast and east of the island. He explained the activities would focus on sea-air combat readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, blockades of ports, and deterrence of external intervention. China's state broadcaster said the drills would focus on sealing off Taiwan's deep-water port of Keelung in the north and the largest port city of Kaohsiung to the south. (Source: The Independent - United Kingdom)

December 25, 2025 7:08 AM GMT+1  State media praised Peng Peiyun, head of China's Family Planning Commission from 1988 to 1998, as an outstanding leader in her work related to women and children. The reaction on China's social media to population control czar Peng’s death in Beijing on Sunday, just shy of her 96th birthday, was less positive. China’s near-universal mandate of just one child per couple from 1980 through 2015 prompted local officials to compel women to undergo abortions and sterilizations. Peng focused her commission’s work on the countryside. In rural China, large families were once seen as a goal for couples looking to ensure that they would be taken care of in their old age. Those children who were lost, naked, are waiting for you over there in the afterlife, one person posted on China’s popular micro-blog Weibo. By the 2010s, Peng had publicly shifted her views, saying the one-child policy should be eased. The number of workers declines. Rising costs from elderly care and retirement benefits will likely create additional budgetary strains for already indebted local governments. Now Beijing is trying to boost the flagging birth rate with childcare subsidies, longer maternity leave and tax benefits. China’s population declined last year to ⁠1.39 billion. Experts warn the downtrend will accelerate in coming years. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

December 22, 2025 11:19 PM GMT+1  China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in silo fields close to China's border with Mongolia, according to a draft Pentagon report. Last month, U.S. President Trump said that he may be working on a plan to denuclearize with China and Russia. The draft report said Beijing did not appear to be interested on a plan to denuclearize. We continue to see no appetite from Beijing for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions, the report said. U.S. officials noted that the report could change before it was sent to lawmakers. The report said China's nuclear warhead stockpile was still in the low 600s in 2024, which reflected a slower rate of production when compared to previous years. Revenues at China's giant military firms fell last year as corruption purges slowed arms contracts and procurement. In the past 18 months, at least 26 top and former managers in state-owned arms companies have been investigated or removed from their positions. Investigations have expanded from a 2023 focus on procurement of rockets and missiles industry to most of China’s defense industry, including China’s nuclear and shipbuilding industry, the Pentagon report added. China's embassy in Washington D.C. said China has maintained a defensive nuclear strategy, kept its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and abided by its commitment to a moratorium on nuclear testing. China has said it adheres to a nuclear strategy of self-defense and pursues a no-first-use policy. Trump has said he wants the United States to resume nuclear weapons testing, but it is unclear what form that will take. The report comes less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control accord, which limits the sides to deploying 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on 700 delivery systems. Russian President Putin and Former U.S. President Biden extended the pact for five years in February 2021, but its terms do not allow for a further formal extension. Biden and Trump, during his first term, sought to engage China and Russia in negotiations on replacing New START with a three-way strategic nuclear arms control treaty. Many experts fear that the expiration of the pact could fuel a three-way nuclear arms race. (Source: Reuters - United Kingdom)

India
24.12.25, 05:04 PM  In its annual report to the US Congress titled ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2025’, released yesterday, the Department of War noted that Indian leaders announced an agreement with China in October 2024 to disengage from the remaining standoff points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). China probably seeks to capitalise on decreased tension along the LAC to stabilise bilateral relations and prevent the deepening of US-India ties; however, India probably remains sceptical of China’s actions and motives. Continued mutual distrust and other irritants almost certainly limit the bilateral relationship, the report said. China’s leadership has extended the term 'core interest' to cover Taiwan and China’s sovereignty claims amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands, and the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, the report said. Emphasising that US interests in the Indo-Pacific are fundamental but limited, the report stated, “We do not seek to strangle, dominate, or humiliate China. Rather, as laid out in President Trump’s National Security Strategy, we seek only to deny the ability of any country in the Indo-Pacific to dominate us or our allies. That means being so strong that aggression is not even considered, and that peace is therefore preferred and preserved,” it said. (Source: The Telegraph - India)

Dec. 13, 2025  The Himalayan Incident or the Nanda Devi Affair. Voyager I, the interstellar probe launched more than 45 years ago that is still drifting through the cosmos, some 15 billion miles away, continues to communicate with Earth thanks to these generators. They were developed in the 1950s for the first generation of satellites. They work by converting heat from radioactive material into electricity, and NASA credits them with enabling “some of the most challenging and exciting space missions in history.” By the mid-1960s, they entered a new realm: espionage. In October 1964, when China detonated its first atomic bomb, President Johnson had been fixated on blocking China from going nuclear. Keeping tabs on China’s nuclear evolution was especially hard because neither the United States nor India had much human intelligence inside the country. Major Gen. LeMay was the head of the United States Air Force, a Cold War hawk and one of the architects of America’s nuclear weapons strategy. At a party, he was having drinks with Bishop, a photographer for the magazine and an acclaimed mountaineer who had summited Mount Everest. Mr. Bishop regaled General LeMay with tales of the views from the top of Everest being able to see for hundreds of miles across the Himalayas deep into Tibet and inner China. The C.I.A. laid out a bold plan. A group of American alpinists working for the agency would slip into the Himalayas undetected, drag several backpacks stuffed with surveillance equipment up the slopes and install a secret sensor at the top of a mountain to intercept radio signals from Chinese missile tests - missiles launched from China’s Lop Nur testing grounds. As missiles traveled above the Earth, they would transmit radio signals back to mission control containing information on their speed, altitude and trajectory. From the top of the second-highest peak in India, the nuclear-powered antenna of the device on Nanda Devi would listen in secrecy, free from interference thanks to the altitude. Information collected by the device would be transmited to a secret relay station 50 miles away, then on to New Delhi and eventually to C.I.A. headquarters. Mr. Bishop was a logical choice for their secret ringleader. He was a military veteran and a tested climber with an excellent cover as a National Geographic photographer. The agency tasked Mr. Bishop with recruiting the best, most trustworthy alpinists he could find. The C.I.A. then turned to India for help. Maybe two or three people in the entire government knew about this. The Indian government’s fear of China going nuclear was intense. India was just lost, had been humiliated in the brief but intense flare-up along China border in 1962. India’s Intelligence Bureau tapped Captain Kohli, a decorated naval officer who had been scaling mountains since he was 7, to head up the Indian side of the mission. The first plan that the C.I.A. hatched, Captain Kohli recalled, was to put the telemetry station on Kanchenjunga, the world’s third-highest mountain after Everest and K2. “I told them whoever is advising the C.I.A. is a stupid man,' Captain Kohli said. The Indians rejected the Kanchenjunga idea, saying it was in an acutely sensitive military area. Then China detonated a second, even bigger, atomic bomb, injecting a new sense of urgency. They had to find a new mountain. Standing 25,645 feet high, Nanda Devi has a mythic, almost terrifying reputation. It rises from a ring of white-toothed peaks like a forbidden mountain in an adventure book. But it offered a strategic location within India, towering above the Chinese border. Once again, Captain Kohli said, his concerns were dismissed. Mr. Bishop announced that the climbers were going up into the mountains to study atmospheric physics and physiological changes at high altitudes. It was all cover. The team flew off to Mount McKinley in Alaska for a quick practice run with the Indian climbers on the mission. The American team members were also taken to a secret government facility in North Carolina to familiarize themselves with explosives, in case they needed to blow holes in Nanda Devi to secure the telemetry station, and in clandestine training in Baltimore at the headquarters of Martin Marietta, the defense contractor that built the portable nuclear device. The generator known as SNAP-19C (SNAP stands for Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power) was a terrestrial model. Its radioactive fuel capsules were made at Mound Laboratories in Miamisburg, Ohio, and shipped out in July 1965. Next stop: New Delhi. The Americans and the top Indian climbers, including Captain Kohli, were flown by helicopter to the foot of Nanda Devi, around 15,000 feet above sea level. Late September. The climbers and a team of Sherpas still faced a climb of more than 10,000 vertical feet. Winter and its ferocious storms were just around the corner. The climbers got altitude sickness, being dehydrated and cold, racked by headaches and extreme nausea. But staggering forward. The radioactive material, Plutonium 238 has a relatively short half-life, 88 years. It sheds heat. Carrying the plutonium capsules, the Sherpas loved them, called the device Guru Rinpoche, the name of a Buddhist saint, because it was so warm. The Sherpas were never told what the heat source was. 'Oct. 4: High winds. Tent was lost; Oct. 5: Short of food; Oct. 11: Snows all day; Oct. 14: Jim tried again to move up but again developed a severe headache; Oct. 15: “Almost constant snow. Frostbite. Coming to a crux.' Packs stuffed, plutonium capsules loaded into the generator. On Oct. 16, as they tried to push for the summit, a blizzard hit. Empty stomachs, no water, no food, and totally exhausted. The mission was collapsing. If they hadn’t been experienced mountaineers, they would have all died. Kohli didn’t know anything, he was sitting at base camp. The C.I.A. had told the American climbers to leave all communication to the Indians. They didn’t want American voices on the radio. The operation was being conducted on Indian soil. There was a Chinese division right on the other side of Nanda Devi. Shouting into a walkie-talkie, Captain Kohli ordered the men to abandon the equipment at Camp Four and hurry back to base camp. “You have to bring that generator down!” Mr. McCarthy, the last surviving American climber on the mission recalled shouting. Mr. McCarthy insists the climbers could have brought the generator down. “The damn thing in its pack weighed 50 pounds. The Sherpas could take that.” But the conditions at the top were so treacherous, that the trek between the camps, which usually took three hours, required 15 that day. In a situation like that, you can’t carry an extra needle, said Wangyal, one of the last surviving Indian climbers. He said at the end of the mission they were 99 percent dead. The Indian climbers pushed the boxes of equipment into a small ice cave at Camp Four. They tied everything down with metal stakes and nylon rope. Then they scurried down as fast as possible. Captain Kohli said that he had maintained constant radio contact with his bosses in the Indian intelligence services and that they backed up all his decisions. A few days later, the climbing season ended. Captain Kohli and another C.I.A. team waited until May 1966, the next climbing season, to go back for the device. But when the climbers scaled Nanda Devi and reached Camp Four, they were shocked. The generator wasn’t there. A winter avalanche must have sheared it off, leaving nothing but a few scraps of wire. ’These are plutonium capsules!’ he remembered C.I.A. officers telling him. Had he realized how dangerous it might be, he said, he would never have left the generator behind. Captain Kohli organized another search mission in 1967 and again in 1968. The team used alpha counters to measure for radiation, telescopes to scan the snow, infrared sensors to pick up any heat and mine sweepers to detect metal. They found nothing. Mr. McCarthy believes that the very warm device buried itself in the deepest part of the glacier - it would melt the ice around it and keep sinking. In a letter found in the archives of the Lyndon B. Johnson Library, a National Security Council official expressed “the gratitude of our government” for permitting Mr. Bishop to assist a unique priority project which concerns the security of the United States. According to Captain Kohli and the once-secret Indian government documents, a team of climbers finally managed to install a new batch of surveillance equipment, powered by radioactive fuel, on a flat ice shelf on a lower summit, near Nanda Devi, in the spring of 1967. It’s the same as the model that is still missing. But the Himalayan snows constantly buried it, cutting off signals it might have picked up. Once, when Indian climbers scaled back up to see what was wrong, they found the warm generator melted straight through the flat ice cap, Captain Kohli said. It sat in a strange cave, like a tomb, several feet under the snow. It was as if the device was hiding itself. That telemetry station was shut down in 1968, with the equipment retrieved and sent back to the United States, according to Indian documents. But the C.I.A. still didn’t give up. Climbers were fighting their way up another peak near Nanda Devi. According to Captain Kohli, who wrote a book about his clandestine work, “Spies in the Himalayas,” the C.I.A. set up a snooping device in 1973 that worked well, picking up signals from a Chinese airborne missile. But by the mid-1970s, the United States was fielding a growing constellation of spy satellites. A small antenna on a mountaintop now was totally obsolete. The whole mission remained a secret for more than a decade. A relentless young reporter, Kohn, was just taken aback at the fact that ’the C.I.A. knew no bounds.’ He started digging into the story in early 1978 for Outside magazine, which was then a little-known offshoot of Rolling Stone. He said the climbers he spoke to at the time felt bitter about the mission and pointed him in the same direction: to Mr. Bishop. who tried to deny the whole thing but eventually admitted his role and broke down. “The Nanda Devi Caper” story broke on April 12, 1978, without mentioning Mr. Bishop or the other climbers’ names. That same day, two Democratic congressmen, Dingell of Michigan and Ottinger of New York, wrote to President Carter that this nation take whatever steps may be necessary to resolve this serious and embarrassing situation. The congressmen made another point: The U.S. Navy had searched exhaustively for a pair of SNAP-19B2 generators that disappeared off the Californian coast in 1968 when a weather satellite crashed. The government was so anxious to recover them that the Navy sent half a dozen ships and plumbed the ocean for nearly five months until they were found. Why, then, had the Americans simply packed up in India, leaving a similar nuclear device lost in the Himalayas? As the glaciers melt, the generator could emerge from the Himalayan ice and sicken anyone who stumbles upon it, especially if it’s damaged. Plutonium, if swallowed or breathed in, can cause internal damage and form toxic compounds in a person’s body. A few hints of the possible dangers are contained in a once-classified report from 1966 on a similar secret device, a SNAP 19-C2. The U.S. Navy placed that one on a remote rock island in the Bering Strait, apparently to spy on Soviet submarines prowling around Alaska. Anyone attempting to recover it, the 1966 report warned, needs to approach the area from an upwind direction and be equipped with self-contained breathing apparatus or ultra-filter, full-face respirators. Hungry for electricity, India is damming rivers across the Himalayas and widening mountain roads. A lot of activities are going on in that area. It’s building high-altitude army outposts along the China border, a contested area where Indian and Chinese troops have fought deadly hand-to-hand brawls. The past is now colliding with India’s future. “Once and for all, this device must be excavated and the fears put to rest”, said Maharaj, the tourism minister for Uttarakhand, the mountainous state where Nanda Devi sits. Mr. Maharaj met with India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, in 2018 to discuss the problem. Mr. Modi seemed unaware of what had happened in 1965, Mr. Maharaj said, but promised to look into it. A spokesman for India’s Department of Atomic Energy said the agency did not have ’any information regarding the missing device.’ A new round of articles in July in the Indian press reminded people of the ’aborted secret mission’ and the possibility of radioactive contamination. That month, Dubey, a member of Parliament from Mr. Modi’s party, put out a statement on social media questioning whether the missing device was responsible for a string of natural disasters. In an interview, Mr. Dubey explained that he had heard many accounts of landslides, floods and houses collapsing. He ran across some of the old C.I.A. documents and now believes that the generator is ’very dangerous’ and that the agency needs to come back and find it. “Who owns that device should take out that device,” he said. A small group of people - Mr. Yadav, a former spy, Captain Kohli and Takeda, a well-respected American climber - have written entire books on the mission. ’The C.I.A. kept us out of the picture’, Captain Kohli said. ’Their plan was foolish, their actions were foolish, whoever advised them was foolish. And we were caught in that.’ ’The whole thing,’ he said, ’is a sad chapter in my life.” He died in June. Scientists worry about a sinister scenario in which the plutonium core is found and used for a dirty bomb. (Source: The New York Times - U.S.)

Iran
[Sat, 27 Dec 2025 19:59 +0300]  The Iranian news agency IRNA quoted Iranian President Pezeshkian, who, during an interview with the website of Imam Khamenei was saying that the country is experiencing a comprehensive war waged by the United States, Israel, and some European countries. He emphasized that these parties do not want the country to stand on its own feet or achieve stability and development. He considered that the nature of this confrontation is more dangerous and complex than the war that Iran waged against Saddam's regime (1980-1988), explaining that in that war, the battlefronts were clear and defined, while today the pressure is being exerted simultaneously and on multiple dimensions. ’These parties are seeking to besiege Iran from all sides, including imposing economic, trade, and financial restrictions, preventing its exports and trade, while simultaneously exerting political, security, cultural, and social pressures, creating internal crises, and raising expectations and social pressures within Iranian society.’ He emphasized that the Iranian armed forces, despite all the difficulties, continue to perform their duties with strength and capability, affirming that 'they now possess greater capabilities, equipment, and human resources than ever before, especially compared to the period when the country was subjected to direct attacks'. (Source: SABA – Yemen)

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Caribbean

Cuba
Dec. 21, 2025 5:30 am ET  The U.S. is ratcheting up pressure on Havana’s key benefactor, Venezuelan strongman Maduro’s regime, which has kept the Communist-ruled nation afloat with cheap oil. Now Venezuelan oil exports are at risk thanks to a partial blockade targeting sanctioned tankers - the kind that carry about 70% of the country’s crude. One tanker that the U.S. has already seized was en route with almost two million barrels of Venezuelan oil. Venezuela has been vital for Cuba’s economy since 1999. Cuba deployed sports trainers, doctors and counterintelligence agents to Venezuela, the latter to root out traitors who might overthrow Chávez. Venezuela responded with 100,000 barrels of oil shipped to Cuba daily. The heavily subsidized oil shipments have fallen to 30,000 barrels a day. Maduro, who trained in Cuba as a young man is nearly 13 years in office. He is always surrounded by security and loyal aides, with no one carrying cellphones or other electronic devices. Trump has just unleashed his pirates on a Venezuelan oil tanker, shamelessly seizing the cargo like a vulgar thief, Cuba’s President Díaz-Canel told the Communist Party’s Central Committee on a recent day. “The enemy’s rules are that there are no rules.” The nation is in the throes of its most severe economic crisis since Castro and his bearded guerrillas took power in 1959. It is harsher and longer-lasting than the so-called Special Period after the Soviet Union unraveled in 1991. More than 2.7 million people - about a quarter of the island’s population, many of them young and ambitious - have fled the island since 2020, hundreds of thousands of them to the U.S. It is nothing less than a humanitarian disaster only seen in countries in armed conflict. Cubans who have access to dollars from relatives abroad can eke by. State employees earn just a few dollars a month in Cuban currency. Nearly 90% of people live in extreme poverty, and 70% go without at least a meal a day. For more than 70% of Cubans, their main concerns are the lack of food and the constant blackouts, which can go for 18 hours or more a day in some regions. 78% intend to flee the island. Garbage is piling up, communicable diseases like chikungunya and dengue are spreading, many children aren’t going to school. Water availability is intermittent, leaving Cubans sometimes unable to bathe, wash dishes or flush toilets. In Cuba’s National Assembly is opposition toward greatly expanding the small private-business sector. Without economic efficiency, sovereignty is not possible, Diaz-Canel, the president, said in his speech. Cuba’s economy has contracted 15% since 2018. Cumulative inflation from 2018 to November is nearly 450%. The Cuban peso has collapsed, trading at about 450 per dollar on the black market, compared with about 30 in 2020. If those Venezuelan crude shipments continue to dwindle in the next few weeks or months, the situation is going to be just unsustainable. Venezuelan crude today covers about 40% of the oil that Cuba needs to import, vital for power plants, transportation and the small-business sector. Cuba produces a small amount of its own oil, also receiving some Mexican and Russian crude. As Venezuela’s oil production collapsed over the past decade under Maduro’s leadership - bringing with it an economic meltdown - Venezuela reduced oil shipments to Cuba. Havana, too, has over the years reduced the number of doctors it deployed in Venezuela. What has remained a constant in Venezuela is Cuba’s security apparatus, which is used to crush uprisings and detect coup plotting. (Source: The Wall Street Journal - U.S.)

Central America

Honduras
26/12/2025 - 11:32  Honduras has joined the growing list of Latin American countries electing new right-wing leaders, reflecting a broader regional shift away from traditional leftist ideologies. (Source: France 24)

North America    Észak-Amerika   

United States    Egyesült Államok    
(Monday), December 29, 2025 4:58 AM  U.S. President Trump has stirred up backlash after remarking that Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed after a phone call with Russian President Putin and an extended meeting with Zelensky. Russia is going to be helping with the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine after a peace deal is signed, Trump told reporters during a press conference alongside Zelensky in Florida on Sunday. It sounds a little strange, Trump said, adding Moscow could supply Ukraine with energy, electricity “and other things at very low prices.” Both Trump and Zelensky struck a positive note after the Sunday talks in Florida, but the Republican told reporters one or two very thorny issues remained. Trump said the future of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region was still unresolved, but it’s getting a lot closer. Kremlin aide Ushakov said on Sunday it would be in Ukraine’s interest to reach a decision on the future of the Donbas quickly because of the evolving situation on the front lines. Moscow’s Defense Ministry said on Sunday its troops had captured four settlements in Donetsk and two villages in Zaporizhzhia. Zelensky said on Sunday the U.S. and Ukraine had agreed on 90 percent of a 20-point peace plan publicized by the Ukrainian leader earlier in the week. Trump said an agreement on providing security guarantees for Ukraine was close to 95 percent completed. Under the 20-point deal made public in recent days, Ukraine would receive Article 5-like security guarantees from the U.S., NATO and European signatories. Under NATO’s Article 5, an attack on one member state is deemed an assault on all. Moscow says it would be unacceptable for Ukraine to join NATO. Ushakov, a former Russian ambassador to the U.S., said Trump had initiated the phone call with Putin ahead of the summit with Zelensky. The U.S. and Russian leaders exchanged warm festive greetings, Ushakov said, followed by a friendly, good-natured and business-like conversation. Trump said he had observed renewed proof of Russia's commitment to a political and diplomatic settlement, Ushakov said. Zelensky said Ukrainian and U.S. officials would meet again in the next few days, and U.S. officials will host a Ukrainian delegation with European leaders in Washington in January. (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

(Monday), 29.12.25, 02:02 PM  Trump said he spoke with Russian President Putin on Sunday in advance of the meeting with Zelenskyy. “I just had a good and very productive telephone call with President Putin,” he posted on Truth Social. Putin's foreign affairs adviser Ushakov said the call was initiated by the US side, lasted over an hour, and was “friendly, benevolent, and businesslike.” Ushakov said Trump and Putin agreed to speak again promptly after Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy. Trump said he and Putin spoke for more than two hours. He said the Russian president pledged to help rebuild Ukraine, including by supplying cheap energy. "Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed," Trump said. "It sounds a little strange." Trump said he would call Putin again following the meeting with Zelenskyy. The Kremlin expressed support for Trump's negotiations. "The whole world appreciates President Trump and his team’s peace efforts," Dmitriev, Putin's special envoy, posted on X early on Monday after Trump’s talks with Zelenskyy. European heads of state joined at least part of Sunday's meeting by phone. (Source: The Telegraph - India)

Dec 29, 2025 - 09:25  During the meeting, Trump said the leaders held an hour-long phone call with EU counterparts, including European Commission President der Leyen, French President Macron and Polish President Nawrocki. Without providing details, Trump said a working group involving Ukrainian, US and Russian representatives could help advance negotiations in the coming months. “Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed,” Trump told reporters at Mar-a-Lago. He also said Putin had not agreed to a ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to hold elections and potential referendums as part of a peace deal, but suggested alternative arrangements were being explored. On social media, Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian and US officials would meet again next week to move talks ahead. (Source: Euractiv - headquarters Brussels, Belgium)

(Sunday, 28 December 2025) 20:38  Zelensky met U.S. President Trump on Sunday, hoping to forge a plan to end the war in Ukraine, but the American leader's call with Russian President Putin shortly before the meeting suggests obstacles to peace remain. Zelensky has said he hopes to soften a U.S. proposal for Ukrainian forces to withdraw completely from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, a Russian demand that would mean ceding some territory held by Ukrainian forces. Just before Zelensky and his delegation arrived at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, the U.S. and Russian presidents spoke in a call described as "productive" by Trump and "friendly" by Kremlin foreign policy aide Ushakov. Ushakov, in Moscow, said Putin told Trump a 60-day ceasefire proposed by the European Union and Ukraine would prolong the war. The Kremlin aide also said Ukraine needs to make a quick decision about land in the Donbas. The U.S. president said he will call Putin again after meeting with Zelensky. Putin said yesterday Moscow would continue waging its war if Kyiv did not seek a quick peace. Russia has steadily advanced on the battlefield in recent months, claiming control over several more settlements on Sunday. Russian forces took 12 to 17 square km of the territory per day in 2025. Ahead of his meeting with Trump, Zelensky said he held a detailed phone call with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. While Moscow insists on getting all of the Donbas, Kyiv wants the map frozen at current battle lines. The United States, seeking a compromise, has proposed a free economic zone if Ukraine leaves the area, although it remains unclear how that zone would function in practical terms. It has also proposed shared control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. (Source: Irish Independent - Ireland)

2025. XII. 24.  Újabb Zelenszkij bemutató: 20 pontos tervezet. (Forrás: Origo – Magyarország)

Tuesday, December 23, 2025  The Pentagon must conduct a study of the kind of large-scale mobilization of reserve military units that would be required to support active-duty forces in a possible war with China in the Indo-Pacific region. The mandate is contained in a section of the $900 billion National Defense Authorization Act, which was signed into law by President Trump on Thursday. The section requires the secretary of defense, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and commander of the Indo-Pacific Command to complete within three months a comprehensive study on mobilizing the reserves. Another provision of the law requires the Pentagon to report to Congress on addressing critical shortages of munitions for weapons and the propellants needed to conduct conflicts in two geographical locations. The military currently includes 1.3 million active-duty troops in all services, plus about 800,000 to 1 million reserve and National Guard members. According to the law, the mobilization planning must be modeled after the 1978 military drill called Nifty Nugget, a large-scale test of the American military’s ability to rapidly mobilize military and civilian forces for a potential war in Europe. From the lessons of the drill, the military’s U.S. Transportation Command was established, along with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The required military reserve study will assess the ability of the armed forces to rapidly mobilize, deploy and sustain active and reserve forces in response to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, or similar flashpoints in the Indian and Pacific oceans. It must assess strategic military lift for all services, including maritime shipping, air cargo capabilities, rail, road networks, and prepositioned stocks. As part of the report, the Pentagon also will identify critical logistics vulnerabilities, bottlenecks to mobilization and command and control threats. Congress wants the Pentagon study to analyze government coordination procedures and civilian emergency-support capabilities. Another key element contained in the study will be an evaluation of joint military functions and interoperability with allied forces with particular attention to coordination mechanisms with Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. The report must also inventory the civilian skills of reservists, such as foreign language proficiency, advanced academic credentials, and industrial and technical skills such as cybersecurity training, engineering, logistics and manufacturing. The military has not conducted a full-scale mobilization exercise since 1978. In another section of the new defense law, the Pentagon is now required to report to defense committees of Congress by April on stockpiles of critical munitions and propellants used for artillery, rockets and missiles. A Senate Armed Services Committee report on the measure said: The committee understands the defense industrial base currently lacks sufficient surge capacity for energetic material production, including propellants that are required across a broad spectrum of critical munitions programs. The report on critical munitions will include an analysis of the current defense-industrial bases for munitions and components for all military services and an assessment of costs for expanding propellant production. ’The law also will assess projected munitions requirements of U.S. allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific for U.S. weapons’. U.S. stockpiles of such weapons as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles have dwindled from being sent to Ukraine, and those could be needed in the Indo-Pacific if war were to break out against China, military and defense leaders have testified to Congress. (Source: The Washington Times - U.S.)

Dec 18, 2025 06:17 IST  The US Senate has approved a $901 billion defence bill. It authorizes reforms to the system for acquiring military equipment. The legislation also addresses military reforms and geopolitical challenges with China and Russia. President Trump will sign the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA into law. The Senate backed the bill by 77 to 20, with strong support from both parties. The House passed the bill last week, by 312 to 112, also with broad bipartisan support. In a break with Trump, this year's NDAA includes several provisions to boost security in Europe, despite Trump's release earlier this month of a National Security Strategy seen as friendly to Russia and a reassessment of the US relationship with Europe. The fiscal 2026 NDAA provides $800 million for Ukraine - $400 million in each of the next two years - as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which pays US companies for weapons for Ukraine's military. Provides $175 million to support Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia's defense. It limits the Department of Defense's ability to drop the number of US forces in Europe to fewer than 76,000. It bars the US European Commander from giving up the title of NATO Supreme Commander. The NDAA's record price tag is $8 billion more than Trump had requested. The NDAA does not include funding to change the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War, a change that cannot be formalized without congressional approval. It includes some of the culture war efforts popular with politicians on the US right. One measure bars transgender women from participating in athletic programs designated for women at US military academies. It also codifies into law executive orders by Trump ending diversity, equity and inclusion efforts at the Pentagon. (Source: India Today)

(Wednesday), December 17, 2025 8:34 p.m. ET  Yesterday evening, US President Trump announced that the US military would impose a total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into or out of Venezuela. Venezuela relies entirely on tankers to export its oil. Sanctioned vessels operate in a global black market. These shadow tankers act as a financial lifeline that Maduro relies on to sustain his corrupt patronage system. Since the initial US seizure of the Skipper last week, Venezuelan crude exports have fallen sharply, effectively targeting Maduro’s main source of income. As of last week, more than thirty of the eighty ships in Venezuelan waters were under US sanctions. This illegal trade network delivers oil primarily to China, and to a lesser extent Cuba. Venezuela exported a little over 780,000 barrels a day in October of this year, 100,000 of which came to the United States and the rest directly or indirectly going to China. A respected tanker tracking outfit suggested that only 40 percent of the vessels transporting Venezuelan crude are sanctioned. The president referred to a blockade of sanctioned vessels, which could potentially exclude Chevron’s 100,000 barrels per day. So far, the oil market has shrugged its shoulders at the blockade. This could be the result of the market having already priced in the impact of higher levels of naval interdiction of Venezuelan oil exports, high levels of spare capacity, or weak winter oil demand. Ordinarily, one million barrels a day of displaced oil translates into about ten dollars on the oil price, so a complete blockade of all of Venezuela’s exports, if not replaced by increased by OPEC spare capacity or commercial reserves, would be in the range of five dollars to eight dollars a barrel. Everything will depend on how the blockade is enforced. Venezuela continues to sell its sanctioned oil, predominantly to China, while accepting payment in digital assets, namely stablecoins, to circumvent US sanctions. Sanctions enforcement ’would include seizing crypto wallets and working with stablecoin issuers to seize or burn digital assets held by sanctioned Venezuelan entities’. It would be much more cost-effective for the United States and its naval forces. The shadow fleet used by Venezuela, Iran, and Russia is a network. The United States needs to address the entirety of the fleet and its operators to affect Venezuela. Russia today relies on a sprawling shadow fleet - aging tankers, opaque ownership structures, flag-hopping, ship-to-ship transfers, and weak or fictitious insurance - to keep oil flowing despite Western restrictions. The US move against Venezuelan oil exports may matter less for Venezuela itself than for Russia’s shadow fleet, because it signals a shift from symbolic sanctions toward more assertive enforcement against maritime sanctions evasion. What the Venezuela case demonstrates is that Washington is increasingly willing to treat sanctions evasion as a maritime security problem. For Moscow, the immediate risk is growing friction and uncertainty. Each escalation increases the probability of seizures, port refusals, or secondary sanctions on service providers - factors that reduce the efficiency and scalability of Russia’s energy revenues over time. There is also a deterrent effect. By demonstrating that shadow fleets are visible, traceable, and vulnerable, the United States raises the strategic risk premium for Russia’s oil trade - even if enforcement remains selective. This dynamic is being reinforced in Washington on the policy front. A bipartisan group of US senators has introduced the Decreasing Russian Oil Profits (DROP) Act of 2025, which would authorize financial sanctions on foreign buyers of Russian petroleum products and seek to choke off a key source of Kremlin revenue. The key takeaway is this: Russia’s shadow fleet survives on the assumption of tolerance and ambiguity. The Venezuela action suggests that assumption is weakening. For a war economy dependent on energy revenues, that shift matters. (Source: Atlantic Council - U.S)

NATO

December 27, 2025  NATO chief Rutte rejects EU defense breakaway from US. 'I am absolutely convinced that the United States stands fully behind NATO,' Rutte told the German Press Agency (dpa). /Source: Politico - U.S./

South America

Venezuela
Dec. 28, 2025  'They have a big plant or a big facility where the ships come from,' Mr. Trump said, without saying where it was or explicitly identifying Venezuela as the target. “Two nights ago we knocked that out,” Mr. Trump made this statement on Friday during an interview with Catsimatidis, the Republican billionaire and supporter of the president who owns the WABC radio station in New York. The two men were discussing the U.S. military campaign to disrupt drug trafficking from Latin America by striking boats suspected of carrying narcotics. Mr. Trump authorized the C.I.A. to begin planning covert operations inside Venezuela months ago. (Source: The New York Times - U.S.)

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North America

United States
17 December 2025  Since Trump presented his list of Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs last April, targeting 180 countries and territories, the impacts of tariffs on developing nations have been profound. Since August, 22 African nations have been faced with duties ranging from 15 to 30 per cent. Last autumn, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which granted duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products from sub-Saharan Africa, was allowed to expire. Replacing this with tariffs affected Botswana, Chad, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, Malawi, Nigeria and South Africa. The Lesotho government was forced to declare a state of disaster and warned that 40,000 jobs in the textile sector were likely to be lost. South Africa warned that the tariffs jeopardise 100,000 jobs within the car industry – exports dropped by 60 per cent in 2025. Several African nations reliant on the US for key agricultural markets have warned that higher duties on tea, coffee and horticultural goods threaten farm incomes and rural employment. Kenya’s producers say rising costs have undercut the viability of smallholder exports, while Malawi and Ethiopia report cancelled contracts. Tariffs hit South and Southeast Asia hard, throwing countries’ short-term economic plans into disarray, undermining the basis of their long-term development models, and pushing them further into an uncomfortable embrace with China. Bangladesh, slapped with a 37 per cent tariff, relies on its garment industry, which employs four million workers and accounts for 13 per cent of the country’s economy and 80 per cent of its exports. Cambodia, hit with 49 per cent tariffs exported more than US$3billion of apparel to the USA in 2024. The apparel sector employs more than 900,000 people, more than ten per cent of the country’s overall workforce. The garment sector is Sri Lanka’s third-largest foreign exchange earner – worth US$1.9billion in 2024 – and exports to the USA sustain much of the industry’s 350,000 workers. Long- established supply chains that link developing economies to US consumers have also strained. Shipping firms report rerouting cargo away from the US after sudden increases in duties left consignments stuck at ports or returned to origin. Manufacturers in Vietnam, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka say the volatility has made forward planning impossible, with many factories operating below capacity for the first time in a decade. The first year of Trump 2.0 on the international stage has withdrawn the USA from the Paris climate accord, started the process of leaving the World Health Organization and scuppered a landmark international agreement to reduce emissions from commercial shipping. At home, it has initiatives to overwhelm opposition and media partly by issuing presidential orders (210 as of November 2025, the highest number by any president). By DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, thousands of staff at key agencies related to climate change, industrial pollution and public health have been fired, with targets including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Environmental Protection Agency and NASA, with departure of much institutional memory in a short time. Trump has also moved forward with plans to revoke the ‘endangerment finding’ – a 2009 legal determination that greenhouse gas emissions cause climate change and threaten public health. Musk, initially put in charge of DOGE, said the mission was to end the tyranny of the bureaucracy, save taxpayers’ money and reduce US national debt, which stands at US$36trillion. DOGE claims US$214billion savings as of late November 2025 (though many media outlets have calculated it to be far less); even this figure is barely ten per cent of its US$2trillion target. The very infrastructure needed to do science has been seriously weakened, and will take years or decades to repair. It’s like blowing up a dam and deciding it was a bad idea. You can’t go and glue the pieces back togetherm says Masters, a meteorologist at Yale Climate Connections and a former hurricane scientist with NOAA. The National Science Foundation – which supports basic scientific research at thousands of US institutions – has lost more than 10 per cent of its staff. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) faces the elimination of its climate research centres and loss of hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven global warming. From hurricane warnings to a heating planet, NOAA has for decades been at the forefront of climate analysis. The agency’s 2026 budget is to be cut by $1.7 billion, about 27 per cent. The White House is seeking to eliminate NOAA’s research arm and cut funding for the agency’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) to just over US$171million, a drop of US$485million. The budget closed the agency’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. It ended support for collecting regional climate data and information, often used by farmers and other industries (the government belatedly restored the data service for farmers). Cuts to NOAA and National Weather Service (NWS) – including the loss of key NWS early-warning staff – are hindering the nation’s ability to prepare for and respond effectively to extreme weather events. In May, NOAA announced that it would no longer update its Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters product, which tracks major weather and climate disasters. Regular twice-per-day upper-air balloon soundings – the most important tool for reliable model weather forecasts – have been lost from 18 per cent of the nation’s upper-air stations, says Masters. Top heat experts at the National Integrated Heat Health Information System were no longer at their government posts at the start of what was a brutally hot summer, involving a massive heat dome over the United States, subjecting more than 255 million Americans to what meteorologists called dangerous, life-threatening conditions. NASA Science’s office faces a nearly 50 per cent cut; the National Weather Service (NWS) has lost 600 staff and the Environmental Protection Agency (EP) faces a 23 per cent budget cut. NASA faces budget cuts of up to 24 per cent. (In April, Trump’s budget request implied slashing the centre’s funding for its science missions by 47 per cent, a measure described by the American Astronomical Society as ‘an existential threat’). A question mark still hangs over the future of its Space Flight Center in Maryland. Hostility towards climate policy has been evident throughout the year. In September, the US Department of Energy instructed staff to avoid terms such as climate change, ‘green’ and sustainable, while criticism continued of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for what is said to be an exaggeration of climate risks. Regulatory shifts have favoured fossil fuels. After a decade-long trend of rapid growth in solar power, installed solar capacity now totals about 220GW, provide more than seven per cent of the nation’s electricity. The total annual US electricity generation from wind energy increased from about six billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2000 to about 434 billion kWh in 2022, when wind turbines accounted for 10.3 per cent of total US utility-scale electricity generation. On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order declaring a moratorium on permits, new leases and lease renewals for all wind projects on federal land. He calls farmer- destroying solar and called wind and solar the scam of the century. In July, he signed an executive order instructing the Treasury Department to terminate the clean electricity production and investment tax credits for wind and solar facilities. Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ imposed steep cuts to solar energy and placed new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar. The Department of Energy says it intends to claw back US$13billion in funding for the wasteful Green New Scam agenda of clean energy projects, while a US$7billion grant programme to expand solar energy in low-income communities has been rescinded. Mayes, Arizona’s attorney general said the cuts would increase energy bills by 20 per cent for the poorest. The Environmental Protection Agency has delayed limits on toxic pollution from coal-fired power plants. Analysis by the Rhodium Group warns that dismantled climate rules could cut the pace of US decarbonisation by more than half over the next 15 years. Offshore drilling is set to expand sharply. A draft five-year leasing plan proposes up to 34 oil and gas auctions, including the first new leases off California in 40 years, major sales in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 21 auctions off Alaska, extending into High Arctic waters previously untouched by drilling. Onshore, the administration has opened 5.3 million hectares of land to coal mining and allocated US$625million to recommission coal plants. A tax bill has also reduced royalty rates on coal production. Internationally, an agreement to cap global shipping emissions collapsed after Trump dismissed it as a green scam. Across at the EPA, critical clean-air and water regulations have been revoked amid 3,700 workforce reductions – a cut of 23 per cent in staff, according to an EPA statement. The administration has encouraged eligible staff across the agency to take early retirements, terminated staff who were recent hires and outright eliminated staff positions in areas related to environmental justice, renewable energy, scientific research and climate change. Furloughed staff have been unable to inspect water treatment plants, chemical factories, oil refineries or monitor air quality. The reoriented EPA says it plans to reinterpret the Clean Air Act (seen as the nation’s most effective safeguard against toxic air pollution from coal-burning plants), repeal all federal limits on greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants and rescind recent updates to the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). Further proposals by the White House include a 30 per cent cut to the EPA’s science and technology budget, crippling essential research on air pollution, toxic chemicals and climate resilience along with a US$680million cut in grants to states and tribes. They are setting back clean drinking water projects and other projects across the nation, and targeting the Office of Research and Development – the backbone of EPA science – which develops publicly vetted research action plans on the harmful impact of everything from forever chemicals to wildfire smoke. The damage to the infrastructure of EPA is profound. It will result in more exposure to health-damaging pollution if polluters believe they can emit with impunity. Wildlife habitats are being primed for resource exploitation and long-standing safeguards overturned. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) faces hundreds of job cuts. From the service’s Fish and Aquatic Conservation and Migratory Bird Programmes and the National Wildlife Refuge System the administration intends to fire dozens of officials. In the summer, agriculture secretary Rollins said she was rescinding the Roadless Rule, which for 25 years has protected 23 million hectares of national forest from new road construction, reconstruction and most timber harvesting. Rollins said the rule was overly restrictive and outdated. At the time, Trump said: We just aren’t allowed to use them because of the environmental lunatics who stopped us. Trump has imposed tariffs on timber imports, while a tax and spending bill passed last summer legally requires a 78 per cent increase in the amount of timber sold from national forests in the next nine years. There are roadless areas in 39 states, including nearly a quarter of New Mexico’s Gila National Forest and 3.6 million hectares of coastal rainforest in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest. An executive order outlines policies to maximise Alaska’s natural resource use, including energy, minerals, timber and seafood, repeals earlier measures that restricted development and prioritises the state’s liquefied natural gas potential. It also aims to initiate new leasing and permitting in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge region, protected for its ecological and cultural importance. ‘It will result in more exposure to health-damaging pollution if polluters believe they can emit with impunity. This weakness will propagate through the entire US environmental and public health management system,’ says Dr. Meiburg, executive director for Environment and Sustainability, Wake Forest University and a former Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Deputy Regional Administrator. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has lost a third of its staff and appears set for a radical re-direction in its approach to vaccination. Last September, US Health and Human Services Secretary Kennedy Jr, known for his anti-vaccine advocacy, called for new blood at the agency and the removal of officials with conflicts of interest and catastrophically bad judgement, and political agendas. Staff at the CDC’s climate office were laid off, with outbreak forecasters, policy and data offices affected. The CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service – which trains the agency’s disease detectives, typically the first responders in an outbreak – lost at least 30 programme coordinators, though some were belatedly reinstated. More than 130 employees were laid off from the office of the director of the National Center for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases. Among these were leaders of the CDC’s response to the growing number of measles cases in the country. Some firings had been reversed, but Colorado has reported its worst measles year in three decades and Florida has announced it will be the first state to eliminate all childhood vaccine mandates. All staff at the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report – which has published surveillance data on the nation’s health for more than a century – were fired. The cuts have excised the next generation of leaders at the CDC, the NIH, and the Food and Drug Administration, according to a former senior CDC employee and risk jeopardising the nation’s ability to innovate in biomedicine and avert disease. There will be direct impacts in discrete areas, such as those resulting from the loss of the tobacco control programme and from the departure of experts in vaccination at CDC, according to Sharfstein, public health professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and former deputy commissioner of the FDA. He is most concerned about the loss of integrity in policymaking, as strong processes are critical to success in regulation and grantmaking for health.’ The head of the WHO says the USAID programmes - cut by 82 per cent in early 2025 - to tackle HIV, polio, mpox and bird flu, have been affected by the freeze on tens of billions of dollars of overseas aid from the USA. Last spring saw the laying off of analysts at the Department of Health and Human Services who were responsible for updating poverty guidelines used to calculate eligibility for more than 40 programmes. In September, the Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that it would terminate not only the annual report on food insecurity in the USA but also eliminate funding for the underlying data. Data collection was suspended for the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, a gold-standard database of maternal mortality data. According to Gibney, senior research analyst at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, these actions are part of a larger pattern that will reduce the availability of data or discredit data that are available and signify increasingly overt politicisation. Decisions to collect or publish less federal data appear to be driven by the current administration’s views on issues such as LGBTQ+ identities and climate change, she says. (Source: Geographical - United Kingdom)

Dec. 16, 2025  US President Trump signed an executive order today declaring fentanyl a weapon of mass destruction. The move dramatically expands the US government’s authority to fight the synthetic opioid blamed for tens of thousands of American overdose deaths each year. It signals Trump’s intent to treat fentanyl as a national security threat on a par with chemical warfare. The classification empowers the Pentagon to assist law enforcement and allows intelligence agencies to deploy against drug traffickers the tools normally reserved for countering weapons proliferation. ’Illicit fentanyl is closer to a chemical weapon than a narcotic,’ Trump's order said. Since early September, the Trump administration has carried out more than 20 strikes against suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing more than 80 people. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Wednesday found that a broad swath of Americans oppose the US military's campaign of deadly strikes on the boats, including about one-fifth of Trump's Republicans. Trump has repeatedly threatened strikes on land in Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico to battle drug trafficking. In a sweeping strategy document published, Trump said his administration's foreign policy focus would be on reasserting US dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Mexico is the largest source of US-bound illicit fentanyl. Many of the chemicals used to manufacture the drug are sourced from China. The opioid is a leading cause of US overdose deaths. (Source: The Korea Herald - South Korea / Reuters - United Kingdom)

December 13, 2025  "Ending the Ukraine War will ultimately require some US-Russia nuclear arms agreement". The post-war agreement among the United States, NATO, Russia, and Ukraine should establish at least four protocols with respect to nuclear weapons and their roles in public policy.   First, the various parties should agree to abstain from explicit nuclear threats against one another, regardless of their political or military disputes.   Second, NATO, Russia, and Ukraine should agree that Ukraine will not manufacture or deploy nuclear weapons on its territory, and that Russia will not deploy any of its tactical nuclear weapons in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine, nor in states outside of Russia that border on Ukraine.   Third, the United States and Russia should resume New START negotiations by agreeing to the Russian-proposed one-year extension of the agreement set to expire in February 2026, and also address transparency for non-strategic nuclear weapons and, possibly, agree to limits on their deployment.   Fourth, the issue of next-generation nuclear weapons and delivery systems should be included in ongoing future arms control discussions. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Cimbala and Korb

South America

Chile
15.12.2025  ’Far-right’ Republican Party candidate Kast secured a commanding victory in Chile's presidential runoff election on Sunday. The election featured a significant increase in voter participation, as voting was compulsory for the first time in more than a decade and it was overwhelmingly decided by security concerns, which have surpassed the economy, health care, and education as the country's top issue, according to polls. Kast won with 58.17% of the vote, while Communist Party member and former Labor Minister Jara got 41.83%. Although Chile remains one of the safest countries in Latin America, a recent rise in organized crime, homicides, and high-impact cases such as kidnappings fueled a public sense of lawlessness. Kast is a staunch Catholic known for his opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. He has been an open admirer of former dictator Pinochet. As a lawyer and former lawmaker, Kast ran on a platform demanding an iron fist to restore public order. Kast was promising drastic measures to tackle security, including the deployment of the military to high-crime neighborhoods, building a wall along the northern borders, and deporting all migrants in the country illegally. Chile's immigrant population has doubled over the past decade, fueled primarily by an estimated 700,000 Venezuelans. The result marks the latest in a series of victories for the ’far right’ in Latin America, following a trend that has seen right-wing leaders rise to power in countries such as Argentina and Ecuador. The US congratulated Trump-inspired Kast for his win. "The United States looks forward to working closely with his administration to deepen our partnership and promote shared prosperity in our hemisphere." the State Department said in a statement. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

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Globalization

Dec. 20, 2025  When the dollar had monopoly power over global commodity pricing, America got a subsidy. The U.S. printed dollars. The world needed dollars to buy stuff. So the world bought U.S. debt, kept its interest rates low and let Washington run deficits that would have sunk anyone else. Economists call it exorbitant privilege. America’s enjoyed it since 1945. That privilege is not disappearing, but shrinking. For 50 years, if you wanted to buy oil, you paid in dollars. If you wanted to buy copper, you paid in dollars. If you wanted to buy anything that crossed a border, you probably paid in dollars. That wasn’t because the dollar was magical. It was because the plumbing only worked in dollars. Every international payment ran through SWIFT, and SWIFT ran through New York. Then America started using that plumbing as a weapon. Iran got cut off. Russia got cut off. In 2022, when the U.S. froze Russian foreign-exchange reserves, every country that watched started asking the same question: What happens when Washington decides we’re next? China built an alternative. In 2024, CIPS handled $24 trillion worth of transactions, up 43% from the year before. And now African banks are plugging into it. By the first half of 2025, Chinese investment in African mining was up almost 400% from a year before. Mining now represents 20% of all Chinese projects in Africa, up from 8% five years ago. This isn’t foreign aid. This is vertical integration. China bought the warehouse. Now they’re changing the currency on the cash register. Standard Bank operates in 21 African countries. It handles trade finance across the continent. When it plugs into CIPS, every mining company, commodity trader and central bank in its network now has a direct line to settle in yuan. No dollars. No permission required from Washington. Here’s what happened while America was busy with Fed meetings. Africa holds about 30% of the world’s critical minerals. The continent is loaded with copper, chromium, lithium and rare earths. Congo has most of the cobalt. South Africa has the platinum. Cobalt goes in every EV battery. Rare earths go in every semiconductor. Platinum goes in hydrogen fuel cells. If the 21st century runs on anything besides oil, it runs on African rocks. China noticed. Beijing has spent the past decade writing checks to Africa. Its Belt and Road initiative poured money into African mining, railways to the mines, ports to ship the ore, refineries to process it - and contracts that guarantee Chinese buyers get first dibs on the output. Central banks around the world are acting like something big is shifting. The dollar’s share of global central-bank reserves has dropped below 47%, down from 65% two decades ago. Gold’s share is climbing toward 20%, highest since the 1960s. Nigeria pulled its gold reserves out of American vaults and brought them home. Ghana increased gold reserves by 35% in one year. Namibia announced it’s moving 3% of foreign reserves into gold, up from nearly zero. And in November the BRICS moved ahead with an initiative to develop a precious-metals exchange that would allow trade settlements in gold, platinum, diamonds and rare earths. South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia are full members. Nigeria and Uganda are partners. When Central bankers start hoarding gold and building alternative settlement systems, something real is happening. The dollar’s monopoly made sense when there were no alternatives. Now there are alternatives. And they work. This is coordinated preparation for a world where the dollar shares the throne instead of sitting on it alone. Gold is up more than 60% this year. Silver is up over 100%. Some gold-miner stocks and exchange-traded funds are up over 150%. That’s a stampede. The dollar index is breaking down, slipping 8% over the past year and falling. The ratio of tech stocks to gold miners just reversed a decade-long trend. The dollar losing monopoly power is a slow leak, not a blowout. Capital is rotating out of one world and into another. (Source: MarketWatch, published by Dow Jones & Co. - U.S.)

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Space

December 18, 2025  Satellites whizzing by each other at close range, maneuvering to gain strategic advantage, is a new development in the militarization of space. Orbital skirmishing has become so common that defense officials now refer to it as dogfighting. Tensions are rising amid growing technological competition between major powers. Much of the dogfighting activity in space is simply for spying, with specifics largely classified - snapping photos of each others’ satellites to learn what kind of systems are on board and their capabilities. They monitor the signals and data emitted by satellites, listening to communications between space and the ground. Many can even jam those signals or interfere with orbiting craft that provide missile warnings, spy or relay critical information to troops. One of the most dynamic close encounters between U.S. and Chinese satellites occurred in February 2022. Two experimental Chinese satellites, Shiyan 12-01 and Shiyan 12-02, were in a westward drift, just above a sensitive region of space, known as geostationary orbit. The Pentagon’s USA 270 satellite approached from behind. Over the next day, the Chinese satellites countered by splitting apart. Shiyan 12-02 maneuvered behind USA 270, putting the sun at its back. When satellites from other countries fly near each other, they get not too close. In the space, satellites can travel at 17,500 mph, or about 5 miles per second. Even an approach of 10 miles is considered uncomfortable. The jockeying-for-position encounters in orbit take place over several hours, even days. Traditionally, once a satellite was in orbit, it largely stayed on a fixed path, its operators reluctant to burn precious fuel. But now, the Pentagon and its adversaries, notably China and Russia, are launching satellites designed to fly in more dynamic ways that resemble aircraft - banking hard, slowing down, speeding up, even flying in tandem. Traditionally satellites weren’t designed to fight, and to protect themselves in a fight, said Clark, the chief growth officer of ExoAnalytic Solutions, a company that monitors activity in space. That is all changing now. Countries such as China are maneuvering their spacecraft in ways that may enable them in a conflict to try to derive a position of advantage relative to the United States, Gen. Whiting, the commander of U.S. Space Command, said. So we want to make sure that we develop our own maneuver capabilities to remain in a position of advantage and to defend ourselves, he said. China is committed to the peaceful use of outer space, and opposes any arms race in outer space or weaponizing it; China has no intention to engage in a space race with any country, nor do we seek so-called advantage in outer space, Liu the spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said. The U.S.draws clears lines between NASA’s civilian and the Pentagon’s military responsibilities in space. China’s space program is run entirely by its military, which can mandate that technological advancements discovered by industry or academia be shared with the military. China now operates six spaceports on Earth to launch new generations of rockets designed to hoist constellations of satellites. This year, it has launched more than 80 rockets. It also is moving ahead with plans to land astronauts on the moon by 2030. In addition, China has been focused on operating in and around geostationary orbit, where the Pentagon and intelligence agencies park some of their most sensitive satellites. Located some 22,000 miles up, geostationary orbit matches the rotation of the Earth, allowing spacecraft to fly over a fixed point over the equator, which makes it ideal for satellites to provide missile warning and detection, reconnaissance and communication. The Pentagon announced in 2014 that it was creating a neighborhood watch program, deploying satellites to monitor the region and, when required, fly relatively close to potential adversaries. There are a lot of activities that are on a vector toward levels of hostility, said Graziani, the CEO of COMSPOC. Recently, for example, Germany’s defense minister, Pistorius, complained about a Russian satellite that had been flying close to a „commercial communications satellite used by the German military’. They can jam, blind, manipulate or kinetically disrupt satellites, he said. A satellite that orbits exactly 22,236 miles above the equator will stay fixed relative to a point on Earth. The satellite’s speed along its circular path is precisely synchronized with Earth’s rotation. This is a geostationary orbit. If a satellite’s altitude drops below 22,236 miles… it will spin faster than Earth and begin to drift eastward. If it moves above 22,236 miles… it’s spin will be slower and drift to the west. Positioning is crucial, especially with the sun. The brightness of the sun can be blinding a satellite to see, or photograph, another. And so satellites often maneuver to keep the sun behind them. The Pentagon’s goal is to establish “space superiority” to such a degree that U.S. satellites can operate freely the way U.S. ships and jets roam the sea and skies. Under President Trump’s proposed Golden Dome missile defense shield, low Earth orbit could be flooded in the coming decade with fleets of autonomous spacecraft designed to collide with enemy missiles launched toward the U.S. homeland. The United States, which ’destroyed a satellite in 1985, has led an effort to eliminate ground-to-space satellite strikes" that flood Earth orbit with debris. The kind of spacecraft-to-spacecraft warfare happening in space is still in its nascent stage. That could include jamming or lasing, even more destructive techniques - using microwave rays to disrupt and even kinetic projectiles to cause physical damage and impairment. Most of the engagements now usually involve just a few satellites. With more autonomy and the introduction of AI, this is going to continue to accelerate. “And then I think you’re going to see the potential to go from one versus ones, or two versus twos, to tens, if not hundreds, of sorties flying simultaneously,” a Space Command official said. Eventually, it could lead to nations developing what the official called swarming techniques. Last year, five Chinese satellites swarmed around each other in what U.S. officials said was a training exercise in low Earth orbit. The spacecraft got to a distance of about a half a mile close to each other. They were flying essentially face-to-face. Over about the last decade, the number of satellites China operates has grown dramatically to more than 1,000, and many of them are used for military purposes. That has given the U.S. neighborhood watch satellites a vast array of spacecraft to monitor. More recently, USA 270 has had its eye on another Chinese satellite, one of the most notorious in space. In 2022, Shijian-21 used a grappling arm to corral a dead satellite that was tumbling in orbit. It towed the dead satellite to what’s known as a graveyard orbit, an area deeper in space that is out of the way of other satellites. China said the mission was a demonstration of how it could help clean up space by getting rid of orbital debris. Pentagon officials acknowledge that but also saw it as a potentially aggressive maneuver. The dead satellite that it removed had been part of China’s BeiDou constellation, the country’s rival to GPS. If Shijian-21 could grapple and move a dead BeiDou satellite, it could theoretically remove a GPS satellite - which is used by U.S. Armed Forces to guide precision munitions - or one used for missile warning, spying or battlefield communication. When another Chinese spacecraft, called Shijian-25, started maneuvering toward Shijian-21 last summer, the Space Force flew a pair of its neighborhood watch satellites, including USA 270, to monitor them. For weeks the pair of Chinese satellites flew in tandem until they eventually docked. Officials believe the rendezvous in space was to allow Shijian-25 to refuel Shijian-21, marking the first time a satellite in the geostationary-orbit region refueled another. Recently, the two spacecraft separated. If Shijian-21 begins to maneuver, it could be a signal that it was a successful refueling and that its life had been extended. Russia has also flown close to other satellites, as well as operated satellites that behave like Russian nesting dolls - spacecraft that once in orbit release other, smaller satellites, which in turn release a projectile that could be used as a weapon. There is no space safety, no space sustainability application for that, said McKnight, of LeoLabs, another company that monitors activity in space. That is an in-your-face, counter-space demonstration going on here. Russia has parked such spacecraft near satellites operated by the National Reconnaissance Office, the U.S. spy agency that uses satellites to gather intelligence. Other nations have been affected, as well, the German military, Pistorius, the defense minister, recently lamented. (Source: The Washington Post - U.S.)

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North America

Mexico
10 December 2025  Mexico rejected U.S. requests to expel more than two dozen Russian intelligence officers operating in the country under diplomatic cover, according to a Dec. 8 report by The New York Times. Mexican officials dismissed the warnings as paranoia. Since 2022, U.S. and European officials have repeatedly observed Russia redeploying intelligence-linked personnel to its diplomatic missions in Mexico after they were expelled from EU countries and the United States, several sources told. (Source: The Insider - headquarters Riga, Latvia)

United States
11/12/2025  Leaked document shows US wants to pull four countries out of EU in Make Europe Great Again plan. The secret file, reported by Defense One, supposedly claims Washington intends to pull Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland away from the European Union and closer in to Washington's circle of influence as part of a bold new 'Make Europe Great Again' strategy. The document is also said to call for the US to back parties and movements that seek sovereignty and preservation/restoration of traditional European ways of life. The supposed leak comes just a week after the release of the official, 33-page National Security Strategy. White House Deputy Press Secretary Kelly yesterday dismissed the claim outright, rejecting even the idea that an 'alternative version' of the strategy existed. It came after Trump yesterday expressed impatience with Ukraine and its European allies France, Britain and Germany. Trump said strong words were exchanged in the phone call with Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Macron. Trump lashed out at Zelensky for 'not reading' the latest White House-backed proposal to secure a ceasefire. Merz said that further talks with the Americans were planned this weekend and that an international meeting on Ukraine 'could take place at the beginning of next week'. But Defense One upped the stakes hours later, publishing extracts from what it described as a fuller version of the strategy that reportedly circulated behind closed doors before the White House unveiled the public edition. In the region, Trump has enjoyed friendly relations with national-conservative leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán - who he welcomed him to the White House last month - and Polish President Nawrocki. Trump has also endorsed Orbán before the Hungarian elections next year, describing him as fantastic and handing Hungary an exemption on sanctions for buying Russian oil and gas. Italy was mentioned in the list of four, and Trump has made no secret of his affection for Giorgia Meloni, Italy's conservative prime minister. He described his Italian counterpart as a fantastic woman who had taken Europe by storm when she visited Mar-a-Lago ahead of his inauguration. The proposal went on to urge support for political and cultural forces who seek sovereignty and preservation/restoration of traditional European ways of life… while remaining pro-American. Dutch politician Wilders, the head of the hard-Right Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, welcomed the 'contentious' report: President Trump speaks the truth, he wrote on X. 'Europe is changing rapidly into a medieval continent thanks to open borders and mass immigration. Indeed, an erasure of our culture if we don't act soon and close our borders for illegal aliens!' Russian presidential envoy Dmitriev voiced his support for Trump on X, writing: „EU & UK leaders should listen to the Daddy.” (Source: Daily Mail - United Kingdom)

11 Dec 2025  In an interview with Politico, Trump ’disparaged' Europe as decaying and its leaders as weak. Trump held a call with the leaders of France, the UK, and Germany yesterday, all of whom Zelensky met in London earlier in the week. They requested a meeting in Europe this weekend, but Trump said he wouldn’t bother coming unless there’s a real chance of a deal. “We want to know some things before a meeting. We don’t want to waste time,” he said. (Source: The US Sun)

11.12.25  U.S. President Trump's plan for peace in Ukraine includes proposals to restore Russian energy flows to Europe, major U.S. investment in Russian rare earths and energy, and tapping frozen Russian sovereign assets, the Wall Street Journal said. The newspaper said the plans were detailed in appendices to peace proposals handed to European counterparts over recent weeks. The paper said one unidentified European official compared the proposed U.S.-Russian energy deals to an economic version of the 1945 Yalta conference. At that meeting, the victors of World War Two, the Soviet Union, the United States and Britain, divided up their spheres of interest in Europe. (Source: The Telegraph – India / Reuters - United Kingdom)

10 December 2025  'China will destroy US military in fight over Taiwan, top secret document warns'. Beijing’s hypersonic missiles ‘could sink US aircraft carriers within minutes’. US reliance on costly, sophisticated weapons leaves it exposed to China’s ability to mass-produce cheaper systems in overwhelming numbers, the highly classified “Overmatch Brief” warns. A national security official under Biden reviewed the document, The New York Times reported. Losing Taiwan, the US’s key bulwark against Chinese power in the western Pacific, would deliver a severe strategic and symbolic blow to Washington. The country’s most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford the $13bn vessel, which entered service in 2022 after years of delays - is vulnerable to attacks from diesel-electric submarines and China’s arsenal of some 600 hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at five times the speed of sound. The Pentagon is planning to build nine additional Ford-class aircraft carriers, while it has yet to deploy a single hypersonic missile. Beijing displayed its ship-destroying YJ-17 missiles, estimated to travel at eight times the speed of sound, at a military parade in September. Last year, Hegseth, the defence secretary, said that ’we lose every time’ in the Pentagon’s war games against China, and predicted the Asian country’s hypersonic missiles could destroy aircraft carriers within minutes. China has significantly expanded its arsenal of short, medium, and intermediate-range missiles, which means it could destroy many of the US’s advanced weapons. Meanwhile, the big five defence companies continue to sell the US government costlier versions of the same ships, aircraft and missiles, according to The New York Times. Defence officials have realised the US is vulnerable because these complex weapons are impossible to mass produce, following a series of recent wars, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which have shown the devastating capabilities of relatively cheap weapons like drones. Congress has earmarked around $1bn (£750m) to produce 340,000 small drones over the course of the next two years. Mr Trump has appointed Driscoll, the US head of the armed forces, as his drone guy, charged with modernising America’s outdated tech and countering enemies’ drone efforts. However, the US cannot compete on costs with countries like China, where labour costs are lower and regulations looser. A decisive change in US policy would likely need substantial investment, yet defence spending is at its lowest level in around 80 years, at roughly 3.4 per cent of GDP. Sullivan, the former national security adviser, has warned the US would quickly run out of essential munitions like artillery shells in a war with China. Internal Pentagon assessments show China vastly outnumbers the US in its arsenal of almost all cruise and ballistic missiles. Both superpowers maintain a stockpile of 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The US reportedly used up roughly a quarter of its high-altitude missile interceptors to defend Israel against Iran’s 12-day ballistic missile barrage in June this year. Moreover, ’China’s state-sponsored hacking group Volt Typhoon has installed malware on critical computer networks for power grids, communications systems and water supplies for American military bases’. The security threat, which US officials have struggled to locate, could hamstring the military’s ability to move weapons and forces if war breaks out in the Pacific. Xi, the Chinese leader, is thought unlikely to move unless China achieves such an overwhelming military advantage that it could effectively be certain to take Taiwan. Failing to do so would be a humiliating blow that would likely end his 13-year-premiership. The US has no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and, since the 1970s, has pursued a policy of “strategic ambiguity”, avoiding saying explicitly whether it would militarily defend the island chain. However, it is obliged by law to provide weapons for Taiwan to defend itself. I think Taiwan should pay us for defence. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything, Mr Trump told Bloomberg last year. He went on to note that Taiwan was a short distance from China’s coast compared to thousands of miles from the US, which gave Beijing a slight advantage. In the Trump administration’s national security strategy, published last week, it said the island was important to the US economy because a third of global shipping passes through the South China Sea. The US’s priority is to preserve military overmatch, it stated, meaning that America’s military capabilities must outstrip China’s so far as to deter Xi against making a move, something which, according to this memo, it has failed to do for some time. In January, The Telegraph reported China had constructed D-Day-style barges that could be used to bypass Taiwan’s beaches and provide multiple fronts for tanks in an amphibious invasion. (Source: The Telegraph - United Kingdom)

Dec 10, 2025  US plans to order foreign tourists to disclose social media histories from the last five years. The proposal would apply to visitors from 42 countries, including Britain, France, Australia and Japan, who do not need a visa to enter the United States. They would also have to submit other “high-value data fields” including phone numbers from the last five years, email addresses from the past decade, personal details of family members and biometric information. The public has 60 days to comment on the proposal. (Source: Euractiv - Headquarters Brussels, Belgium)

NATO

11 Dec 2025  Speaking at a security conference event in Berlin, Nato chief Rutte had a stark warning for the West. Nato members were urged to rapidly increase defence spending. He predicted that Russia could engage the alliance in direct conflict within the next five years.* Putin’s sights are now set on Nato nations, Rutte warned. (Source: The US Sun)
* Coming from the chief of Nato, this is no scaremongering?

Oceania

Papua New Guinea
December 12, 2025  Papua New Guinea (PNG), the biggest Pacific Island nation said today, that Alphabet's Google will build three subsea cables, funded by Australia under the Pukpuk mutual defence treaty signed in October. The US$120-million effort will link northern and southern Papua New Guinea and the Bougainville autonomous region with high-capacity cables. The pact between Australia and PNG gives Australian defence personnel access to PNG communications systems, including satellite stations and cables, its text shows. Reuters previously reported Google planned to build a data hub on Australia's Indian Ocean outpost of Christmas Island, another strategic defence location. Two new cables are planned to link it eastwards with Australian cities hosting key defence bases also used by the US military. Google confirmed the Christmas Island data hub last month, saying two more cable systems would link its westwards with Africa and Asia, to deepen the resilience of internet infrastructure. The three international-grade subsea cables will cut reliance on single points of failure, and position the country to attract investment from hyper-scalers and global digital enterprises. The United States is also strengthening military ties with PNG, signing a defence co-operation pact in 2023. Australian and US military strategists view resource-rich but largely under-developed Papua New Guinea as having a prized location north of Australia at a time when China is boosting its influence in the region. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore)

South America

Venezuela
December 11, 2025 07:48 PM GMT+03:00  Tanker seizure took place yesterday in the Eastern Pacific, where U.S. troops reportedly rappelled onto the vessel from a helicopter and entered the ship with rifles drawn. A video posted by U.S. Attorney General Bondi on her X account shows what she describes as the execution of a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran off the coast of Venezuela. Russian President Putin held a phone call with Venezuelan President Maduro today to express solidarity with Caracas. The Kremlin said Putin reaffirmed support for the Maduro administration’s efforts to safeguard Venezuela’s sovereignty and national interests. The two leaders also reviewed bilateral cooperation under a strategic partnership agreement signed earlier this year. (Source: Türkiye Today - Istanbul, Turkey)

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Bangladesh
Dec 11, 2025  Growing Chinese strategic footprint in South Asia. In June 19, China, Bangladesh and Pakistan held their first trilateral meeting at the official level in China's Kunming. At the meeting, the three sides agreed to deepen cooperation in trade, investment, health, infrastructure and debt management, and set up a joint working group to build trust and enhance regional stability. In Hasina's foreign policy India was a key partner. Following Hasina's ouster in August 2024, under Yunus's interim government, Bangladesh is gravitating towards Pakistan and China. There has been a swift and visible warming of Pakistan-Bangladesh ties across trade, defence, diplomacy and infrastructure. Days after Pakistan's Foreign Minister Dar hinted at a new trilateral grouping involving Dhaka, Beijing and Islamabad, Bangladesh's Foreign Affairs Adviser Hossain has said that it is strategically possible for Dhaka to join a regional bloc with Pakistan, not feasible for Nepal or Bhutan, excluding India. (Source: India Today)

Cambodia
11 Dec 2025  Clashes took place yesterday at more than a dozen locations along the contested colonial-era demarcated 817-kilometre Thai-Cambodian border. Cambodia’s Ministry of the Interior said homes, schools, roads, Buddhist pagodas and ancient temples had been damaged by 'Thailand’s intensified shelling and F-16 air strikes targeting villages and civilian population centres up to 30km inside Cambodian territory'. Thai military opened fire 'targeting civilian areas, especially schools, and destroyed Ta Krabey and Preah Vihear temples, the highly sacred cultural sites of Cambodia and the world cultural heritage,” it said. The Thai army said Cambodia had used a historical site as a military base of operations and therefore was guilty of violating international law. Death toll on the Cambodian side of the border stands at 10 civilians, while 60 people have been injured. Eight Thai soldiers have also been killed in the fighting so far this week, with 80 more wounded. More than 500,000 Thai and Cambodian civilians have been forced to flee border areas due to fighting. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

Gaza
December 12 2025 10:31:58  The U.S. has asked Israel to take responsibility for clearing the massive debris left across the Gaza Strip enclave, including destruction caused by airstrikes and armored bulldozers, Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth daily reported. According to the report, Washington expects Israel to ultimately remove rubble across the entire enclave, a task that could take years and cost more than $1 billion. Arab and international actors have so far refused to finance the debris-removal effort, the paper said. Israel has agreed to the U.S. request for now, but will begin by clearing debris in a single pilot neighborhood in Rafah. The initial project is expected to cost tens to hundreds of millions of shekels. Gaza is buried under about 68 million tons of debris, The Wall Street Journal reported this week. (Source: Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey)

India
12 December 2025  Last week, the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit unfolded as a blueprint for the post-Western order. Sixteen agreements have just been signed: Defence pacts, trade corridors, critical minerals supply chains, pharmaceuticals, joint ventures in AI and space, a fast-tracked free trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union. Moscow’s oil flows unchecked to Indian refineries. Beneath it all, a “special and privileged strategic partnership” has been reaffirmed. As Europe roars against Russia, India doubles down on Moscow. Bilateral trade hit $65 billion this year, up 50 per cent. Russia supplies 40 per cent of India’s oil imports, discounted and sanction-proof. Defence deals include S-400 systems delivered and BrahMos missiles co-produced. Modi’s message is clear: While New Delhi will not be drawn into a quarrel with the White House, it will also not be lectured on sovereignty. Here is a partner who does not wish to wipe out our industry, nor control our infrastructure. As Beijing’s shadow falls heavy across the Indo-Pacific, India, the world’s fastest-growing major economy and a demographic titan of 1.4 billion, becomes the only viable alternative to China’s supply chains. But this partnership, despite the EU’s €100 billion trade surplus with New Delhi, may prove fragile, if Modi pivots eastward. India’s non-alignment tradition dates back to 1955. Nehru balanced Washington and Moscow, buying MiGs while courting Eisenhower. Today’s multipolar game is fiercer: A system of US, China, Russia, Europe and India as a wildcard. Xi watches as the West fractures its own alliances. The Quad – US, India, Japan, Australia – holds against China in the South China Sea, but if India drifts into a Moscow-Beijing orbit, that front crumbles. Trump’s team knows: Without India, the China game is lost before it starts. Economically, Delhi’s markets can rival Beijing’s. Geopolitically, India patrols the Malacca Strait and checks Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea. Lose India, and the Indo-Pacific becomes a Chinese lake. The new US National Security Strategy mentions India 17 times: A “comprehensive global partner” for tech, defence, and countering Eurasian competitors. America needs India to cage the dragon. Yet Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods sting badly - steel, aluminium, textiles, chemicals, all affected bitterly. Trump shuts doors. Europe can open them. Go for good deals in the tariffs-affected sectors. Remove barriers on pharmaceuticals, IT, textiles. Joint semiconductor ventures. Europe sleepwalks. India plays the long game. If the EU wants to remain relevant globally, it should start acting so. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)
by Bogdanos

Japan
(Friday), Dec12, 2025 / 2:28 AM  A 6.7-magnitude earthquake struck off Japan's northeastern coast today. The temblor hit at 11:44 a.m. JST, about 70 miles east-northeast of Hachinohe, a city on the northeast coast Honshu Island, at a depth of 12 miles. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observed a maximum 4 intensity in 38 municipalities. Japan has a seven-level seismic scale, with level 4 meaning strong shaking was felt, level 3 meaning most people were able to feel the temblor with hanging objects observed swaying, level 2 meaning it was felt by individuals indoors and level 1 being it was felt by some people indoors. The earthquake comes after a 7.5-magnitude temblor struck the northernmost prefecture of Japan's main Honshu Island on Monday. (Source: UPI – U.S.)

Nepal
December 12, 2025  The anti-graft protests in September that forced Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to resign caused more than US$586 million in losses to Nepal's US$42 billion economy, a government statement said today. The unrest that followed killed 77 people and injured more than 2,000 others three months ago. Public and private infrastructure - including the sprawling Singha Durbar office complex, the Prime Minister's office, the Supreme Court, Parliament House, the private residences of politicians, and business complexes owned by individuals close to some politicians - was set ablaze and destroyed. The office of interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki, a former chief justice, who succeeded Oli, said the cost of rebuilding would top US$252 million. The interim government has so far collected less than US$1 million from the public and different institutions. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for March 5, 2026. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore)

North Korea
11.12.2025  North Korean leader Kim visited the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang to express his condolences over the death of Russian Ambassador Matsegora, state media reported yesterday. Kim's visit followed the North's confirmation of the ambassador's sudden death last Saturday. Matsegora had been serving as Russia's ambassador to North Korea for over a decade before his sudden death at the age of 70, with the cause still unknown. North Korea’s ties with Russia have grown closer in recent years, including its deployment of troops in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. In September, during a meeting with Kim in the Chinese capital Beijing, Russian President Putin acknowledged for the first time that North Korean soldiers took part in the Ukraine war at Kim's initiative. North Korea and Russia signed a comprehensive strategic partnership last year, pledging mutual military support if either came under attack by a third party. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Pakistan
December 12, 2025  A military court in Pakistan jailed a once-powerful general former spy chief Hamid for 14 years on four charges. Hamid is in custody and under trial since August last year. He was the chief of Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency from 2019 to 2021 under jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The two were considered close allies. The charges ranged from engaging in political activities and violating the Official Secrets Act in a way detrimental to safety and state interest to misuse of authority and resources as well as causing wrongful loss to individuals. The former general was found guilty on all the charges, the military said. Hamid has a right of appeal. He also faces a separate investigation of his role in May 2023 attacks by thousands of Khan's supporters on scores of military installations and offices to protest against the arrest of the 72-year-old. Information Minister Tarar said Hamid acted as an advisor to Khan's party to try to create chaos in the country. Khan, who has been in jail since August 2023 and nearly 150 of his party leaders and supporters have already been indicted by an anti-terrorism court on charges of inciting the attacks that also targeted military headquarters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. Khan blames the military for ousting him from power in 2022. The military, which has directly ruled the nation of 241 million for more than three decades of its 77-year independent history, plays a big role in making or breaking governments. (Source: AsiaOne - Singapore)

Syria
07:26-10 December 2025  A series of security and military shifts continued to redraw the country’s landscape through 2025. The balance of control shifted sharply after the launch of the Deterrence of Aggression battles on November 27, 2024. In less than two weeks, the Assad government lost the areas it had held since 2020, which covered more than half of the country. With the government’s fall, Iran’s presence also unraveled after more than a decade of entrenchment. Iran backed militias withdrew from rural Damascus, Homs, Aleppo, the southern provinces and from Al-Bukamal and Al-Mayadin. The militias withdrew completely after supply lines linking them to Lebanon and Iraq were severed, which effectively ended Iran’s influence and that of its militias across Syria. The military role of Hezbollah - one of Tehran’s key proxies in Syria since 2013 - also came to an end. The turning point ended after factions in the Deterrence of Aggression campaign seized Al-Qusayr in late 2024 and Hezbollah forces pulled out entirely, lost one of its most critical geographic links to Iran through Syrian territory. Many areas that had been under the indirect influence of Hezbollah and Iran backed factions reverted to the authority of the new Syrian state and its security and military institutions in the north. Syria’s territorial map at the end of 2025 reflects a new political landscape dominated by four actors: the Syrian government, the SDF, the National Guard forces in Sweida, and Israel, each wielding varying degrees of influence. The largest shift in influence last year came at the expense of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Dawn of Freedom operation ended the group’s presence in strategically important areas west of the Euphrates, beginning with the fall of Tel Rifaat and surrounding villages and extending toward Manbij, which cost the SDF one of its key cities in the region. The SDF’s influence contracted in northern and eastern Aleppo countryside and the group withdrew eastward toward Raqqa, Hasakeh and parts of Deir Ezzor. In the south, a limited but consequential development emerged in Sweida province. Local groups linked to Sheikh Al-Hajri seized parts of the province after government forces withdrew, created a pocket of influence outside the new government’s authority and added another layer of instability to the southern provinces. The area under their control is geographically small. In parallel, Israel capitalized on the collapse of the southern front. It pushed beyond the buffer zone and established a presence in select points and strategic hilltops near the disengagement line. The symbolic and intelligence value of the chosen positions gives Israel leverage through monitoring and pressure, keeping the south open to volatility. The Syrian government remains the primary authority. It holds 69.3% of the country’s territory, covering major cities, most administrative structures and key transport routes. It does not control four provincial capitals: Quneitra, Sweida, Hasakeh and Raqqa. The SDF controls 27.8% of Syria’s territory, concentrated in the north and east. The group faces serious political pressure tied to the implementation of the March 10, 2025 agreement, which is expected to reshape its relationship with the Syrian government. The National Guard forces in Sweida, loyal to Sheikh Al-Hajri, control 2.8% of the country. Their influence is distinct in nature. The significance lies in their location and in the direct support they receive from Israel. Israel’s incursion into Syrian territory covers 0.1% of the country, with high surveillance value, which reflects strategic intent. Israel is seeking an early warning line and a tighter grip over the border zone. Supporting an environment that prevents full stability in the south, this aligns with its indirect role in reinforcing the position of the Sweida National Guard forces. With regional and international actors working to head off the chaos and potential partition that threaten wider stability, any near term changes in who controls what are expected to come through political and security pressure rather than a return to large scale battles. Regional and international efforts are focused on avoiding chaos and partition. (Source: Asharq Al-Awsat – Heartquartered in London, United Kingdom, owned by a member of the Saudi royal family)

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Bulgaria
11/12/2025  Sustained anti-corruption protests had intensified in recent weeks. The demonstrations were sparked by a 2026 draft budget, which protesters branded as an attempt to mask rampant corruption. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets across Bulgaria yesterday to protest against the government and corruption in the latest rally since the end of last month. The government withdrew the budget last week, but anger has persisted. After less than a year in office, Bulgaria’s prime minister Rosen Zhelyazkov announced today that his government was resigning. His announcement came just ahead of a vote in parliament on a no-confidence motion against the government that the opposition had filed. The Balkan country has seen seven snap elections following massive anti-graft protests in 2020 against the government of three-time premier Boyko Borissov. His conservative GERB party topped the most recent election last year, forming the current coalition government in January. Last week, Bulgarian president Radev declared his support for the protesters and urged the government to resign to make way for early elections. Analysts say low trust in Bulgarian institutions and leaders has been compounded by concerns about prices as the country prepares to adopt the euro. The country is due to join the eurozone on January 1. This is expected to go ahead despite the government resigning. (Source: France 24” with AFP” /France/)

Denmark
December 10, 2025  The US has for the first time described as a potential security risk amid geopolitical frictions over Greenland, according to Denmark's 2025 intelligence outlook published today. The US president has not ruled out taking the Arctic island, a territory of the Danish kingdom, using military force. Still, Russia and China are viewed as the main risks. Uncertainty about the US’ role as a guarantor of Europe’s security will increase Russia’s willingness to intensify its hybrid attacks against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while China’s use of economic and military leverage continues to challenge Western influence, it said. ’The Baltic Sea region is the area where there is the greatest risk that Russia will use military force against NATO,’ the agency said. (Source: Bloomberg - U.S.)

European Union
December 10, 2025  The European Union considered China a systemic rival in 2019. The bloc no longer seeks full decoupling, but aims to reduce exposure in sectors deemed strategic for security and competitiveness. Europe has cut its dependence on Russian gas. It has at the same time become equally reliant on Chinese goods that are essential for the continent’s lofty environmental and technological goals. China dominates the global production and processing of solar photovoltaic (PV) components, rare earth elements (REEs), permanent magnets and advanced battery materials such as graphite and lithium compounds. In several stages of these value chains, Chinese producers control 80 percent or more of global capacity. This concentration creates a new type of strategic vulnerability in the supply of critical technologies. A disruption in Chinese exports of magnets, PV wafers or battery chemicals could delay renewable-energy deployment, electric vehicle (EV) production and power-grid upgrades. Even short interruptions reverberate through prices, investment timelines and industrial output. Europe’s exposure to China is deepest where its ambitions are highest. Trade tensions have added a political dimension. Beijing has tightened export-licensing requirements for certain grades of graphite and REE magnets, signaling that it is willing to weaponize its market share. Brussels is responding through the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which seeks to build mining, refining and recycling capacity within the EU; but such projects take years to mature. Europe’s strategic dilemma: to accelerate decarbonization while reducing reliance on the Chinese supply chains that enable it. Failure could leave the continent facing another energy crisis – this time rooted in processing plants and export licenses. Four sectors illustrate Europe’s vulnerability to China that underpin the EU’s clean-energy transition:    Rare earth elements and magnets;    Solar photovoltaics;    Magnesium, and    Batteries.    Rare earth elements are indispensable for EV motors, wind-turbine generators and defense technologies. For heavy rare earth elements, the EU’s reliance on China is close to 100 percent. China dominates the refining and magnet-making stages of the supply chain. The EU is highly import-dependent on China for permanent magnets. When Beijing tightened export-licensing scrutiny for high performance magnets in 2025, European manufacturers considered it a warning shot. The CRMA sets diversification targets for 2030, yet meaningful refining and magnet capacity in Europe remains more distant.    Solar photovoltaics: Chinese firms now control over 80 percent of global PV manufacturing capacity, from polysilicon to finished modules. More than 90 percent of the solar panels installed in Europe originate from China, following the collapse of the EU’s own solar industry in the early 2010s. The paradox: Europe’s flagship climate technology depends on a single foreign supplier. Any trade restriction or logistics shock could delay installations and inflate project costs, undermining the bloc’s climate targets.    Magnesium is the lightest of all commonly used structural materials and one that is crucial for lightweight aluminum alloys. 95-96 percent of EU magnesium imports come from China. Efforts to restart smelting in Romania, France and Norway face high energy costs and lengthy permitting processes. In 2021, China briefly cut its magnesium output so that it could reduce its domestic energy consumption, causing immediate price spikes and supply shortages globally. This threatened Europe’s automotive and packaging industries.   Batteries and critical minerals: China refines around 60-70 percent of global lithium and cobalt and about 90 percent of natural graphite, including almost all of the spherical graphite used in battery anodes. Partnerships with Australia, Canada and other allied suppliers are growing, but lternative refining and processing capacity is unlikely to satisfy Europe’s projected demand before the end of this decade.    The immediate strategic exposure and risk lie in clean-energy and industrial materials. These inputs are directly linked to Europe’s power systems, transport and manufacturing competitiveness – the same areas that proved most vulnerable during the Russian gas crises. Solar modules, magnets, magnesium and battery materials together form a new axis of dependency – a European energy transition built on foreign foundations. Europe lacks stockpiles and domestic refining capacity. Any Chinese export pause – intentional or accidental – would transmit instantly through supply chains. Several well-defined transmission channels could rapidly turn a disruption in critical materials into broader economic stress. This crisis would propagate through manufacturing bottlenecks, investment delays and price volatility. Even minor slowdowns could idle European production lines for EV motors or wind-turbine generators. The EU’s anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs and Beijing’s counter-probes into European agricultural exports marked a new phase of politicized trade. If China were to impose duties or quotas on PV modules, magnets or battery materials, project costs would surge and installation timetables would slip, forcing governments to revise their climate-energy trajectories. European tariffs on Chinese goods would raise input prices for the bloc’s own green industries, amplifying inflationary pressures. Even without formal restrictions, disruptions in shipping, insurance or foreign exchange markets could put supply chains under pressure. A geopolitical flare-up in the South China Sea or around Taiwan would reroute maritime trade and lift freight rates. Most of Europe’s energy-transition hardware travels by sea. A few weeks of port congestion or renminbi appreciation could add billions to project budgets. Downstream sectors – utilities, carmakers and construction firms – operate on tight investment cycles. A sudden shortage of PV modules or battery cells would defer revenues, unsettle balance sheets, dampen investor confidence. Even modest delivery delays can translate into market-value losses, feeding through to credit conditions and public budgets.    Taken together these factors: Europe’s vulnerability has shifted from energy consumption to energy technology. Supply shocks in Chinese clean-tech exports could freeze the energy transition itself.    The likely scenario: Europe continues its current course: cautious diversification under the banner of de-risking while maintaining pragmatic trade with China. Chinese producers remain dominant in solar PVs, battery materials and magnets. Supply tensions persist but remain manageable through inventories and flexible contracting. Political pressure for sovereignty fades as economic growth takes precedence. The energy transition proceeds, but the underlying exposure remains: a stable dependence rather than genuine autonomy. „The likelihood of this scenario is 60 percent’.    Somewhat likely: Escalating disputes over EV tariffs or technology transfers trigger a cycle of retaliation. Beijing slows export approvals for graphite and rare-earth magnets; Brussels raises barriers on Chinese clean-tech imports. Project costs rise, renewable-energy build-outs stall and Europe again confronts supply-driven inflation reminiscent of 2022. Governments then scramble to subsidize domestic production, fragmenting Europe’s single market. Utilities and automakers delay investment, and the EU’s climate goals slip further out of reach. The crisis is as political as it is economic: Europe proves unable to reconcile its environmental ambition with its geopolitical vulnerability. ’The likelihood of this scenario is 15 percent’.    Possible: Repeated supply shocks, geopolitical headwinds and rising costs push Europe toward a strategic rethink enabling a continued drive toward clean energy via nuclear power. Ambitious goals for solar and wind power, as well as the switch from combustion engines to EVs, are abandoned. Today several European states join the nuclear power revival as a route to energy autonomy and industrial stability. The British and the Czechs are moving from design to implementation of small modular reactors [SMRs]. Slovakia is choosing Westinghouse for nuclear fuel supplies, Prague is selecting South Korea’s nuclear power firm for new large reactors at legacy power plants. France accelerates its development of SMRs with Croatia and Italy pursuing similar options. Sweden reverses course and allows nuclear power, Poland and Finland partner with U.S. and South Korean suppliers. Even Germany sets new conditions under which it will gradually restart its nuclear plants. The shift ensures long-term, low-carbon baseline energy generation and reduces reliance on Chinese clean-tech inputs to Europe, reducing its carbon footprint and that renewables alone can ensure energy security. Although it slows the expansion of solar and wind capacity and sidelines the drive for EVs in the short term, this scenario offers greater long-term stability, cost predictability and geopolitical control. This approach could ultimately strengthen both Europe’s industrial base and its strategic autonomy. ’The likelihood of this scenario is 25 percent”. (Source: Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG - Liechtenstein)
by Israel, a professor of economics at the Université Catholique de l’Ouest (UCO) in France.

France
(11 December 2025)  During the summer, several French cities imposed night-time curfews on teenagers after a spate of violence linked to drug trafficking. President Macron was holding talks today in an attempt to respond to the crisis. Drug crime has skyrocketed in Marseille, France's second largest city. The port city's fast-evolving drug wars now are marked by chillingly random acts of violence of Marseille drug gangs and by the growing role of children, who often coerced into the trade fall victim to lethal violence. France's Ministry of Justice estimates that the number of teenagers involved in the drugs trade has risen more than four-fold in the past eight years. ’It's chaos now’, said a scrawny Marseille gang-member, now in his early 20s. ’There are no more rules. Nobody respects anything these days. The bosses start... to use youngsters. They pay them peanuts. And they end up killing others for no real reason. It's anarchy, all over town’. Across Marseille, police, lawyers, politicians and community organisers talk of a psychose – a state of collective trauma or panic – gripping parts of the city. It's an atmosphere of fear. It's obvious that the drug traffickers are dominant, and gaining more ground every day. The rule of law is now subordinate to the gangs, said a local lawyer, explaining her recent decision to stop representing victims of gang violence. There's so much competition in the drugs trade that people are ready to do anything, said community organiser Benmeddour. Kids aged 13 or 14 come in as lookouts or dealers. ’The young see dead bodies, they hear about it, every day. And they're no longer afraid of killing, or being killed.’ ’Everything changed since Covid. The perpetrators are getting younger and younger. The victims are younger and younger,’ a prominent 22-year-old anti-gang activist and aspiring politician named Kessaci said. ’There was a time when the real thugs had a moral code. You don't kill in daytime. Not in front of everyone. You don't burn bodies. First you threaten with a shot to the leg... Today these steps have all disappeared.’ In 2020, his older brother, a gang member named Brahim, was murdered. Last month, was also murdered his brother Mehdi, a 20-year-old trainee policeman with no links to the drug trade. It is widely believed his death was intended as a warning to Amine, his anti-drugs activist brother. One gang, the DZ Mafia, now appears to dominate the trade. It operates a kind of franchise system, with a fractious network of small distributors often staffed by teenagers and undocumented immigrants, who clash violently over territory. According to one estimate, up to 20,000 people may be involved in the city's drug industry. Last year officials confiscated €42m in criminal assets from the gangs. Video footage shared on social media routinely shows gang members, armed with automatic rifles, shooting at each other in Marseille's various cités – poor neighbourhoods characterised by high-rise buildings and a concentration of social housing. ’This is not El Dorado. We have a lot of youngsters recruited on social media. They come to Marseille thinking they'll make easy money. They're promised €200 ($233) a day. But it often ends in misery, violence and sometimes death,’ said the city's chief prosecutor, Bessone. He described an industry thought to be worth up to €7bn nationwide and characterised by two new developments: a growing emphasis on online recruitment, sales, and delivery; and a rising number of teenagers coerced into the trade. ’The traffickers enslave these little soldiers. They create fictional debts to make them work for free. They torture them if they steal €20 to buy a sandwich. It's ultra-violence. The average age of the perpetrators and victims is getting younger and younger,’ said Bessone. On Tiktok, dozens of videos, set to music, advertise drugs for sale in Marseille's cités, ’from 10:00 to midnight’, each product with its own emoji, for cocaine, hashish and marijuana. Other adverts seek to recruit new gang members with messages like ’recruiting a worker’, ’€250 for lookouts’, ’€500 to carry drugs’. Authority must be restored. We need to end a culture of permissiveness in our country. We need to give more freedom, more power to the police and the judiciary, said Alissio, a local MP for the ’far-right’ National Rally party, and a prospective mayoral candidate. ’Today, the problem is that we are no longer able to integrate economically and assimilate. Too much immigration. It's the number [of immigrants] that's the problem. And in fact, the drug traffickers, dealers, lookouts, the leaders of these mafia, are almost all immigrants or foreigners with dual nationality’, Alissio argued. Alissio claimed that billions of euros had been poured into Marseille's poorest neighborhoods by successive governments to no effect. He added that he was focused on solving the problem, not doing sociology. Pujol, a local writer and expert on the drug trade in Marseille hit back against calls for tougher police action, arguing it was merely nursing the symptoms of a suffering society, rather than treating the causes of the problem. Describing entrenched poverty as a monster, Pujol painted a picture of a society radicalised by decades of neglect. 'The monster is a mixture of patronage, corruption, and political and economic decisions made against the public interest,' Pujol said. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

Russia
12.12.2025  Western countries are trying to impose their militaristic vision in Asia. This contradicts the established system of stability and security in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Shoygu said, speaking at a meeting with President of Laos, Sisoulith, in the capital Vientiane, today. ’Attempts to create various kinds of new architectures, or, to be more precise, an eastern NATO, cannot satisfy us and contradict the spirit that has been established in the region,’ Shoygu said. His discussions with the leadership of Laos covered issues related to the active militarization of the region - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines. "Once again, we reiterate that we fully support the ASEAN-centric model and security architecture, which has been established for a long time and has demonstrated its viability and efficiency," he said. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

Ukraine
December 10, 2025 4:58 pm CET  'Zelenskyy teases wartime election to disarm attacks from Trump and Putin'. 'I am ready for the elections. I’ve heard that I’m personally holding on to the president’s seat, that I’m clinging to it, and that this is supposedly why the war is not ending - this, frankly, is a completely absurd story,' he told several journalists via a WhatsApp audio message late yesterday. Zelenskyy’s closest competitor is former Ukrainian army commander Zaluzhnyi, who currently serves as Kyiv’s ambassador to the U.K. (Source: Politico - U.S.)

United Kingdom
December 12, 2025  The UK’s new Military Intelligence Services. The Ministry of Defence announced an overhaul of all defence intelligence organisations today. ’It brings every defence intelligence unit and organisation under one roof like intelligence units from the Royal Navy, Army, the RA and the UK Space Command’. The move is designed to speed up information gathering, analysis and sharing across the Armed Forces following escalating threats like cyber attakcs, satellite and shipping disruption, and the spread of disinformation, the MoD said. Defence Secretary Healy said: ’For intelligence, this means cutting-edge technology, clearer structures and faster data flows. This gives us sharper insights into what our adversaries might do next, so we protect our forces, safeguard critical infrastructure, and deter changing threats.’ The UK defence spending has been steadily growing in recent years. In the year to March 2025, Britain spent £60.2 billion on defence. This is expected to rise to around £62.2 billion this year, and up to an estimated £73.5 billion in 2028/29. The government has pledged to grow defence spending to the Nato requirement of 2.5% of GDP by 2027. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – all neighbouring Russia – lead the list for 2025 expenditure of what chunk of their GDP Nato countries spend on defence. Britain is 12th on the list. (Source: Metro – United Kingdom)

10 December 2023  In February, the government said it wanted to classify 11 synthetic opioids as Class A drugs. Last month, the Home Office published an updated list, adding four more. Following a sudden spike in UK deaths this summer, the government put out a warning across the NHS and drug services - the second National Patient Safety Alert in three years. Super-strength street drugs more powerful than heroin have been linked to at least 54 deaths in the UK in the last six months. The true total could be higher - the National Crime Agency (NCA) said 40 more cases awaited further testing. Experts say the new drugs can be stronger than both heroin and fentanyl, another synthetic opioid, which is a leading killer in the US - contributing to 75,000 deaths last year. The deaths are all linked to synthetic opioids called nitazenes, which experts fear are being manufactured in labs and then imported into the UK from China. Nitazenes were first developed in the 1950s as a pain-killing medication but are so potent and addictive they have never been approved for medical or therapeutic use. Injected, inhaled or swallowed, mixing them with other drugs and alcohol is extremely dangerous and significantly increases the risk of overdose and death. Nitazenes first made news in the UK in 2021, when an 18-year-old patient was treated for a non-fatal overdose. Yates, National Crime Agency (NCA) deputy director, said he did not believe there was currently a direct link between the availability of nitazenes and the ban of harvesting opium poppies in Afghanistan, which some have suggested. The NCA believes nitazenes are being produced in illicit labs in China and often enter the UK in the ’post’. In most cases, it is then mixed with heroin by organised gangs, strengthening the drugs being sold on the street. There are an average of 42 drug poisoning deaths each week involving opiates - such as heroin, oxycodone and fentanyl - across England and Wales, latest official figures suggest. Signs that someone may have taken one of Synthetic opioids: Small, narrowed pupils; Reduced or loss of consciousness; Dizziness or drowsiness; Difficulty breathing; Nausea or vomiting; Cold or clammy skin; Blue or grey lips and fingernails; Low blood pressure or decreased heart rate. Anyone who has consumed synthetic opioids and experiences the symptoms described should seek urgent medical treatment. Dr Varney said drug users had no sense of the strength of nitazenes. He warned nitazenes could cause ’a global drug problem’. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)

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United Kingdom
December 7, 2025  The United Kingdom has no desire to give up on the Ukraine War. It has signaled a desire for peace as a way to keep America on board. In just a few months, the British have gone from crying Havoc! and letting slip the dogs of war against Russia in Ukraine to quietly encouraging Kyiv to embrace a settlement to end the war - no matter how distasteful it might be. This is more of a wily wait-and-see approach. The British government does not actually favor a peace deal that would address, as the Russians constantly insist, the 'root causes' of the Ukraine War. Instead, London wants to buy time for Ukraine to restore its fighting capabilities and be prepared to reopen hostilities at a more favorable point. To be clear: the British and the Europeans do not want a permanent peace in Ukraine. They want to essentially wait out the Trump administration, which has around 35 months left in office - and is likely to be hamstrung if the Democrats regain control of one or both houses of Congress after the midterm elections in November 2026. Britain and Europe assume that they can spend the next few years restoring Ukrainian fighting capabilities and then reopen hostilities with Russia once a more amenable American president is elected in 2028. There have also been cogitations at the highest levels of power in Europe and in Britain about the future of Zelensky. After suspending constitutionally mandated elections last year, with no return to normal democracy on the horizon, Zelensky has been riding his wartime image to sustain his political legitimacy in a Ukraine that is increasingly ravaged by a seemingly endless war with Russia. Even Zelensky’s most ardent supporters in Europe and Britain recognize that this is unsustainable. How could they purport to be supporting a besieged democracy if that democracy has suspended constitutional provisions indefinitely and insists on fighting to the last man before any elections can be held? That is why London has been cultivating the likes of Zaluzhny, the current Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom. Zaluzhny is widely seen as MI6’s man in Ukraine’s leadership. Former MI6 spymaster (and notorious dossier author) Steele, clearly still connected to the British intelligence community was pressed on live television about the relationship between Zaluzhny and British intelligence - and their plans. He did not deny it. His only caveat was that Zaluzhny’s purported rise to the Ukrainian presidency must come after an election. As America seeks to step back from the conflict, they’re just going to buy Ukraine more time, ensure that an even more warlike leadership succeeds the oligarchy that currently runs Ukraine, and then restart hostilities once Trump is out of office. This is precisely what Europe did during the Minsk Protocol negotiations. Indeed, such perfidy was already admitted to after the fact by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who once admitted that Europe was never serious about the Minsk protocols - and that they were merely using those negotiations to buy time for Ukraine’s military buildup. With the revelations that the Europeans were not being above-board with the Russians during the Minsk Accord negotiations, and as even the Wall Street Journal recently admitted, Russia has gained the upper hand in the Ukraine War, any appearance of backsliding by the Europeans in terms of a potential peace deal negotiation might end Russia’s involvement in those talks entirely. All this double-dealing and these machinations for acquiring greater leverage in a conflict that is not only a peripheral concern for the United States and a minor one at best for the UK, shows how badly the European and British elite have miscalculated. These current talks are not a chance to once more buy their side in the conflict time and to restart the war on more fortuitous footing. This is the last offramp before Russia ends any chance for a viable postwar scenario where at least the majority of Ukraine remains a sovereign entity. London doesn’t seem to understand this at all - and doesn’t seem to want to. For London and Brussels, war is no longer a means to a strategic end. It’s simply the end; anything to keep the Americans from walking away more fully from NATO and the European project. And the Ukraine War is the great gateway to ensuring permanent American buy-in to this scheme. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
By Weichert, a senior national security editor. His books include A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (2024)

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Russia
December 4, 2025  Kuril Islands become a Sino-Russian fortress against Japan. The sparsely populated chain of islands separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Pacific Ocean - Russia’s Pacific Fleet and Sea of Okhotsk nuclear bastion. The Kuril Islands are strategically positioned at the gateway to Russia’s Pacific Fleet basing areas. The access to the fleet headquarters in Vladivostok, is located on the western shore of the Sea of Japan. Ships that set out for patrols in the Pacific Ocean must navigate through the narrow La Perouse Strait, which lies between Hokkaido and the Russian Sakhalin Island, before passing through the Kuril Islands. These islands under Russian control since 1945, have long been a focal point of territorial dispute between Moscow and Tokyo, spanning approximately 1,300 kilometers, from Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido to the southern tip of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. The Russian Empire first established its naval presence in the Pacific on the Kamchatka Peninsula. Japan lays claim to the four southernmost islands – Iturup (Etorofu), Kunashir (Kunashiri), Shikotan and the Habomai group – referring to them as its Northern Territories. The foundation was laid in the 1855 Treaty of Shimoda, which granted Japan sovereignty over the four southernmost islands. In the decades that followed, fluctuations occurred regarding the tradeoff rights to Sakhalin, a large Russian island north of Japan. At the end of World War II., taking advantage of Japan’s defeat, Stalin ordered the seizure of the four islands by force. Japanese locals were expelled, and Russian settlers moved in. As this occurred after Japan had already surrendered to the United States, Tokyo has never recognized the annexation as legitimate. Japan and the Soviet Union have never concluded a formal peace treaty to end World War II. The San Francisco Peace Treaty, signed in 1951, stated only that Japan had relinquished the “Chishima Islands,” without explicitly mentioning the four disputed islands. The 1956 Joint Declaration normalized diplomatic relations but left the territorial dispute unresolved. Japan continues to claim that the four southernmost islands are not part of the Kurils but rather constitute the Northern Territories. It further maintains that because the Soviet Union was not a signatory to the San Francisco Treaty, the treaty cannot be used to justify Russian claims to the islands. At a meeting in Moscow in November 1998, Russian President Yeltsin and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi committed to resolving the dispute over the islands within 14 months. In a joint Moscow Declaration, they aimed to finalize a peace treaty by the end of 2000. Yeltsin was forced to resign in 1999, and the effort was abandoned. The last time a compromise seemed possible was in 2018, when President Putin met with then Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe. By 2017, they had met 20 times, with Japan indicating that it was willing to accept a step-by-step deal in which Shikotan and the Habomai group would be returned first, followed by the larger islands of Iturup and Kunashir, provided Russia recognized Japanese sovereignty over all four. Ultimately, negotiations collapsed. The Kremlin was launching a heavily funded rearmament program in 2009, and it began militarizing the disputed islands after Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea. In late 2015, Russian forces stationed on the islands were provided with a Soviet-era Tor-M2U surface-to-air missile system. In 2017, a Bastion anti-ship missile battalion was deployed to Iturup, and a Bal anti-ship missile battalion to Kunashir, followed by significant construction activity on both islands, including the erection of barracks to house an estimated 3,500 troops of the 18th Machine-Gun Artillery Division. In December 2020, air defense capabilities were enhanced with the deployment of an S-300 missile battery to Iturup. Tokyo expressed concern that the P-800 Oniks supersonic missile fired by the Bastion system could threaten much of Hokkaido, enabling the interception of ships in large parts of its coastal waters. In December 2021, additional Bastion launchers were set up on Matua, situated in the middle of the Kuril Islands. On Paramushir, which lies even further north, a new airstrip was constructed alongside extensive barracks complexes. The Putin regime is determined to transform the islands into a barrier that can both threaten Hokkaido and defend approaches to the Sea of Okhotsk. The updated Russian maritime doctrine, presented in St. Petersburg on July 31, 2022, specifically mentioned that both the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands would be protected by all means. Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has produced three major ripple effects for the Kuril Islands dispute. Ukraine has officially recognized Japan’s claim to the Northern Territories as legitimate. in October 2022. Its decree officially acknowledged the Kuril Islands as Japanese territory temporarily occupied by Russia. Considering that Ukraine has already carried out strikes ’on various targets in the Russian Far East, Russian military installations on the Kuril Islands could also come under attack’. Some observers in Japan have suggested that a considerable number of current residents on the southern islands are descendants of Ukrainians who were forcibly relocated there by the Soviets after 1945, following Stalin’s land grab. Estimates from pro-Ukrainian and Japanese sources even claim this figure could be as high as 60 percent. The second point is that Japan was compelled to follow the lead of the major Western countries in condemning Russian aggression and enacting tough sanctions. Moscow’s response to the escalation was harsh, indicating that all discussions on economic cooperation and a potential peace treaty were suspended indefinitely. President Putin chose not to attend Abe’s state funeral. The Russian Vostok-22 war games held in September, under the supervision of Russia’s Eastern Military District, took place in the waters and coastal areas around the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan. China’s participation held political significance with Russian military units, including Pacific Fleet marine infantry, heavily involved in the war in Ukraine. Finally, China’s stance regarding the rights to the islands has shifted. Historically, the official endorsement of Japanese sovereignty was established by Chairman Mao in 1964 and maintained by all Chinese leaders since then. The change was notably highlighted during the February 2022 meeting, where President Putin and Chinese President Xi solidified their relationship under a “no limits” friendship agreement. After that meeting, President Xi stated that the two sides would support each other on issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity. At a press conference in January 2024, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova responded by emphasizing that, “The Russian side acknowledges that there is only one China, that the People’s Republic of China is the only legal government representing the entire country and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. The Russian side opposes any form of Taiwan’s independence.” China is now backing Russia in its confrontation with Japan over the islands. This support from Beijing is tied to Moscow’s endorsement of China’s ambitions in Taiwan. As joint Sino-Russian naval operations become a key strategy for deterring Japan and South Korea from stepping up their support for Taiwan, Russia, with a vantage point near the northern shores of Hokkaido, gains a significant advantage. Control over the island chain not only offers Russia critical forward listening posts but also ensures safer routes for its aircraft. Beyond the fundamental issue of national sovereignty, the Kurils are also crucial for accessing valuable fishing grounds and rare-earth mineral deposits. The question of sovereignty has consistently taken precedence over any potential economic deal. The least likely scenario is that Japan finally gains legal recognition for its claim to sovereignty over the contested islands if the Russian Federation splits, leaving its Far East isolated. Japan could then step in as a protector of the Northern Territories that would otherwise be in serious trouble. Achieving international recognition of sovereignty would still be a long shot, given expected objections from other regional powers. A somewhat more probable scenario is that a collapse of the Russian Federation presents China with a difficult choice about how best to protect its own interests. Beyond securing continued access to energy and other raw materials, China might choose to strengthen its military stance against Japan by acting as a protector for Russian military installations on the Kuril Islands, including but not limited to the Northern Territories. ’The most probable scenario is that, as Russia faces increasing economic decline due to its war in Ukraine, it gradually becomes a vassal state under China’s control’. Beijing may then adopt a firmer stance on Taiwan while tacitly encouraging more assertive Russian actions on the Kuril Islands and near Hokkaido. As a result, Japan will need to reassess the robustness of its security guarantees with the U.S. (Source: Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG (GIS) - Liechtenstein)
By Hedlund, a professor of Russian Studies at Uppsala University.
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Caribbean

Haiti
30 November 2025  Haiti is in the grip of a security crisis as gangs battle for control of territory in the capital and beyond while continuing to expand their criminal activities. It is feared that gangs are increasingly working with international organized crime networks to traffic drugs. 1,045 kilograms of cocaine was seized in July 2025 near Haiti’s Île de la Tortue off the north coast of the Caribbean nation in a maritime operation by Haitian authorities, believed to have originated in South America and was destined for distribution across the Caribbean and the US. Just two weeks later, 426 kg of cannabis were confiscated in Petite-Anse, near Cap-Haïtien again in the north of the country. The traffickers involved in the cocaine shipment were Bahamian and Jamaican nationals. There have been additional seizures wider afield. Two Haitian nationals were arrested in Jamaica, also in July, with over 1,350 kg of cannabis. The seizures have underlined the island nation’s pivotal role in trafficking routes linking South America, the Caribbean and the United States of America. There is also recent evidence received by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) of drugs being shipped to Europe. In August 2025, Belgian authorities seized 1,156 kg of cocaine in the port of Antwerp in a container originating from Haiti. The largest gangs have entrenched themselves along strategic corridors in and out of the capital Port-au-Prince as well as along the border with neighbouring Dominican Republic controlling key transit routes for drugs as well as other contraband, including arms. Intelligence from Jamaica also links firearms seizures to a guns-for-drugs trade involving Haitian gangs. Île de la Tortue, suitable as a logistics and storage platform for illicit shipments has considerable size, it is remoteness, and its geographical position provides direct maritime access to the Bahamas and Jamaica, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. The seizures of drugs both in Haitian waters and in Europe indicate sophisticated, coordinated and established trafficking routes that require a robust regional response by law enforcement agencies. ’Newly established drug routes are also overlapping with migrant smuggling operations, in which Haitian nationals are increasingly involved’. UNODC is reinforcing border security, strengthening maritime control, advancing intelligence-led policing and addressing the corruption and financial crime that allow trafficking networks to operate. A nationwide border-management initiative designed to increase interdiction capacity at ports, airports and land borders has been launched at the request of the Haitian authorities. At sea, UNODC’s Global Maritime Crime Programme is focused on strengthening the Haitian Coast Guard. On land, UNODC is strengthening the ability of law enforcement to carry out intelligence-led operations against organized criminal groups involved in migrant smuggling, trafficking in persons and overlapping criminal activities. Exchange of information between Haiti and regional partners has also been stepped up. Specialized tribunals are being launched which are capable of handling cases involving financial crime, money laundering, gang-related offences and other sensitive criminal matters, with the objective of reducing impunity and restoring confidence in the justice system. (Source: The United Nations Office in Geneva)

North America

Canada
2 December 2025  The European Union and Canada announced an agreement allowing Ottawa to join a €150 billion European defence financing programme called Security Action for Europe (SAFE). (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)

United States
Dec 05, 2025  President Trump met with the leaders of both the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda yesterday, where those two leaders signed an agreement that will signal the beginning of the end of a long-running conflict in Africa. The peace deal also involves precious minerals access for the United States. The peace agreement cemented yesterday calls for a peaceful resolution of disputes, disarmament, provisions for refugees and ending support for armed groups. It also calls for the launching of an economic framework that would expand the trade of critical minerals. The United States signed bilateral agreements on that measure with both countries. But despite the new deals, violence has continued on the ground. (Source: Scripps News - U.S.)

05.12.25  The US plans to expand the number of countries covered by its travel ban to more than 30, US Homeland Security Secretary Noem said in an interview on Fox News yesterday. Trump signed a proclamation in June banning the citizens of 12 countries from entering the United States and restricting those from seven others, saying it was needed to protect against foreign terrorists and other security threats. The bans apply to both immigrants and non-immigrants, such as tourists, students and business travellers. ’If they don't have a stable government there, if they don't have a country that can sustain itself and tell us who those individuals are and help us vet them, why should we allow people from that country to come here to the United States?" Noem said. (Source: The Telegraph – India / Reuters - United Kingdom)

12/3/2025  Soros changed criminal justice in America. Ads came from an independent political committee bankrolled by a billionaire - in this case, the former hedge fund manager and liberal 'philanthropist' Soros, who set out a decade ago to elect district attorneys who would steer drug offenders and juveniles toward rehabilitation instead of prison, oppose cash bail for minor crimes, and crack down on police misconduct. Over the past decade, the Soros-backed Justice & Public Safety PAC and affiliated committees have built a cost-effective and winning record. These entities spent roughly one-fifth of Musk’s $294 million investment in the 2024 election, spreading that money across at least 62 primary and general election races and winning 77 percent of the time. These district attorneys command extraordinary authority to pick and choose who enters the criminal justice system and for how long. Downballot races have turned into big-money brawls that polls and political science show have eroded public faith in government. Some prosecutors who face better-funded Soros-backed contenders bow out, leaving voters with fewer choices. And while voters can hold candidates accountable for misleading attacks on their opponents, billionaires like Soros do not have to answer to the electorate. When heavy-handed billionaires equate democracy with their personal ideology and drop a ton of money picking candidates and destroying others while the rest of us are left as bystanders, that’s not democracy, said Clements, CEO of American Promise, a nonprofit that advocates stronger campaign finance regulations. 'It’s leading us to disaster because of the level of toxicity and take-no-prisoners warfare. The damage is systematic.' Soros ranks fifth among the top billionaire political donors in the last 10 years, having given more than $321 million to federal and state candidates and committees. In Florida, Gov. DeSantis (R) went so far as to suspend two Soros-backed Democratic prosecutors in a two-year period as part of a crusade against what he described as'woke' ideology. And in Texas, where Soros has boosted about half a dozen prosecutors, Attorney General Paxton has promoted a campaign against 'rogue district attorneys.' A group funded by Musk that tried to dislodge one Soros-backed district attorney in Texas last year sent out mailers featuring a bloodied teddy bear and accusing him of 'filling Austin’s streets with pedophiles & killers.' Amid the backlash by conservatives seeking to tie Soros-backed prosecutors to rising crime, some failed to win second terms. At the end of last year, Musk appeared to be planning a broad counterattack against Soros-supported prosecutors, but his plans for the 2026 elections are unclear. (Source: MSN / The Washington Post = U.S.)

3 December 2025  The United States has imposed a sweeping freeze on immigration processing for applicants from 19 non-European countries, suspending decisions on green cards, citizenship, asylum and other immigration benefits. The directive, issued by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), applies to all applications regardless of when they were filed, including those near approval. This reassessment may require new background checks, additional documentation or fresh interviews, even for people who have lived legally in the U.S. for years. (Source: Outlook - India)

Tue, Dec 2, 2025  US President Trump has threatened military strikes on Colombia amid rising tensions over drug trafficking. Speaking at the White House, he said: "If they come in through a certain country, any country ... I hear Colombia is making cocaine ... anybody doing that and selling it into our country is subject to attack." The US President held a security meeting yesterday. (Source: Express - United Kingdom)

December 2, 2025  Trump told Maduro in a phone call earlier this week to quit and offered safe passage for him and his family, a deal that expired Friday without Maduro accepting the offer. According to Reuters, Maduro requested full legal amnesty to leave Venezuela, an end to U.S. sanctions and his case before the International Criminal Court and sanction relief for over 100 Venezuelan officials accused of abuse or corruption. He reportedly wanted his vice president to lead an interim government if he stepped down. Trump rejected the demands. (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek - U.S.)

(Sunday), November 30, 2025  White House gives Maduro ultimatum as U.S. moves toward land operations. A phone call between the White House and Caracas aimed at defusing the crisis carried a blunt message for strongman Maduro: You can save yourself and those closest to you, but you must leave the country now. The call - which The New York Times reported took place last week, quickly reached an impasse. The two sides’ positions were far apart. One source said the cal stalled over three issues. „Maduro asked for global amnesty for any crimes he and his group had committed, and that was rejected.” „They asked to retain control of the armed forces - similar to what happened in Nicaragua in ’91 with Chamorro. In return, they would allow free elections.” The administration rejected that proposal as well. The third sticking point: Safe passage would be guaranteed for Maduro, his wife Cilia and his son only if he agreed to resign right away. Caracas refused. The call - initially brokered by Brazil, Qatar, and Turkey - has not been repeated. The conversation unfolded amid growing signs that the Trump administration is preparing a more assertive phase of operations targeting Venezuela’s so-called Cartel de los Soles, which Washington says is headed by Maduro and other top officials. On Thursday, President Trump announced that U.S. military actions - until now focused on sinking speedboats suspected of carrying drugs in the Caribbean - would soon expand onto Venezuelan territory. Speaking to service members during a Thanksgiving call, he said the U.S. Armed Forces would very soon begin land-based operations to disrupt what he described as Venezuelan drug-trafficking networks. After Trump’s announcement on Saturday that Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed in its entirety, the Maduro government attempted to place another call to Washington but received no response. Addressing on Truth Social “Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers,' Trump offered no operational details but warned that the directive required immediate attention. Washington has moved to expand its legal authority. The State Department formally designated the Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, placing Maduro, Interior Minister Cabello, and Defense Minister López in the same legal category as leaders of al-Qaeda and isis. The designation, published in the Federal Register, is seen as a tool that grants the administration new latitude to undertake military action without additional congressional approval. Because U.S. officials argue the cartel operates from within the Venezuelan state, the designation effectively treats the Maduro government as part of a terrorist network. Experts note the move could allow the administration to invoke the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, the legal basis for most U.S. counterterrorism operations over the past two decades. Trump has suggested it could clear the way for strikes on Venezuelan assets and infrastructure. He has also said he remains open to negotiations. Caracas denounced the move, calling it a false pretext for foreign intervention and insisting the cartel is an American invention. For more than two months, American naval and air assets have surged into the Caribbean near Venezuela’s borders, including the Nov. 16 arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier. At least 10 additional warships, a nuclear submarine and F-35 fighter jets are also deployed. The level of firepower far exceeds typical interdiction activity. (Source: Miami Herald - U.S.)

(Sunday, 30 November 2025)  The White House has launched on Friday a tracker designed to call out media offenders every week. The site is listing news sites, reporters, and stories it claims misled the public. Each story is explained and categorized under labels such as lie, omission of context, or left-wing lunacy. (Source: DW /Germany/; "The Associated Press /U.S./ contributed")

Global

December 01 2025  ’Sales by the world's top 100 arms makers reached a record $679 billion last year’. It's mostly driven by Europe. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza boosted demand, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Many European countries are also now looking to expand and modernise their own militaries, which will present a new source of demand. ’The United States is home to 39 of the world's top 100 arms makers’, including the top three: Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) and Northrop Grumman. U.S. arms makers saw their combined revenues rise 3.8 percent to reach $334 billion in 2024, nearly half of the world's total. ’The 26 of the top 100 arms maker which are based in Europe’ saw aggregate revenues grow by 13 percent to $151 billion. ’The sharpest increase of all the top 100: Czech company Czechoslovak Group’ saw revenue spike by 193 percent - reaching $3.6 billion. ’The company benefitted from the Czech Ammunition Initiative which provides artillery shells for Ukraine’. European arms makers are also facing difficulties: sourcing materials looks to become more challenging. Airbus and France's Safran sourced half of their titanium from Russia before 2022 and have had to find new suppliers. Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals have led companies - such as France's Thales and Germany's Rheinmetall - to warn of higher costs as they restructure supply chains. ’Two Russian arms makers are also among the top 100’, Rostec and United Shipbuilding Corporation, and they saw combined revenue rise by 23 percent to $31.2 billion, despite a shortfall of components due to international sanctions. The report noted that the Russian arms industry is struggling to find enough skilled labour to support the projected rates of production needed to sustain Russia's war aims. The overall revenues of the ’23 companies based in Asia and Oceania’ went down - their combined revenues dropped 1.2 percent to $130 billion. The overall drop there was the result of by a larger drop among Chinese arms makers. A host of corruption allegations in Chinese arms procurement led to major arms contracts being postponed or cancelled in 2024. The drop deepened uncertainty around China's efforts to modernise its military. ’Japanese and South Korean weapons makers saw their revenues increase’, also driven by European demand. ’Nine of the top 100 arms companies were based in the Middle East’, with combined revenues of $31 billion. ’The three Israeli arms companies’ in the ranking accounted for more than half of that. Their combined revenues grew by 16 percent to $16.2 billion. SIPRI researcher Karim noted in a statement that the growing backlash over Israel's actions in Gaza seems to have had little impact on interest in Israeli weapons. (Source: Hurriyet Daily News - Turkey)

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China
04.12.25, 12:24 PM  Apparently just routine exercises. The People's Liberation Army has not made any announcements of large-scale officially named drills. China is deploying a large number of naval and coast guard vessels across East Asian waters, at one point earlier this week more than 100, in the largest maritime show of force to date. The Chinese ships have massed in waters stretching from the southern part of the Yellow Sea through the East China Sea and down into the contested South China Sea, as well as into the Pacific. The operations exceed China's mass naval deployment in December last year that prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level. Together with warplanes, some of the Chinese vessels in the area have carried out mock attacks on foreign ships. They have also practiced access-denial operations aimed at preventing outside forces from sending reinforcements in the event of a conflict. As of yesterday morning, China has four naval formations operating in the western Pacific, and Taiwan is keeping tabs on them, Tsai, director-general of Taiwan's National Security Bureau, said, without giving details. As of today morning, there are more than 90 Chinese ships operating in the region. Beijing had begun dispatching a higher than usual number of ships to the region after November 14, when it summoned Japan's ambassador to protest Takaichi's comments on Taiwan. Still, the rise in activity is happening as China and Japan are in a diplomatic crisis. after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said last month that a hypothetical Chinese attack on democratically-ruled Taiwan ’could trigger a military response’ from Tokyo. Beijing has also been angered by an announcement last month by Taiwan President Lai of an extra $40 billion in defence spending to counter China, which views the island as its own territory. China's last named war game around Taiwan was in April and called Strait Thunder-2025. China never formally confirmed it held drills during last December's mass naval activity. (Source: The Telegraph – India / Reuters)

(Wednesday/, 03.12.2025  Accompanied by business leaders and government officials, French President Macron today began a three-day trip to China. In Beijing, he will hold talks with Chinese President Xi, Premier Li and China’s top lawmaker Zhao, before traveling on Friday to the city of Chengdu in the southwestern part of the country. Xi will host Macron for one-on-one talks in Chengdu, with bilateral ties, trade and Trump tariffs, and the war in Ukraine and Gaza likely on the agenda. The trade volume between China and the EU’s second-largest economy rose to around $80 billion. The trade friction between China and the EU, whose bilateral trade stood at around $785.8 billion last year, will likely dominate the discussions between the two.
/’From Beijing’s point of view, Europe is asking for concessions it cannot give or enforce. While China will continues to emphasize dialogue and peace proposals, it will not alter its core ties with Moscow. The fact being the more Europe sides with the US against China, the stronger the bonds between Russia and China get, Einar, senior fellow at Beijing-based Taihe Institute * explained. On EU-US ties, Einar said the bloc’s autonomy looks shallow. China sees this as more theater than substance - Europe wants to appear independent, but its economic and security reliance on the US makes the (Macron) visit more of a gesture than a strategic pivot, he explained. Europe may talk of strategic independence, but its leaders still defer to Washington’s line, he said, adding: China will not abandon Russia under external pressure. The analyst said Beijing expects Macron to leave with warm words, vague commitments to dialogue, and perhaps some trade announcements. China will welcome the engagement but privately judge it as half hearted - Europe wants to appear balanced, yet remains tethered to US policy on Ukraine and supply chains. But, China will continue to gauge the situation, looking for a change of attitude and sincerity from Europe, said Einar/. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey/
* /In September 2025, the think tank closed/ (?)

01/12/2025, Monday  China-Japan friction. When the broader Indo-Pacific region is already marked by strategic rivalry and competing security interests, both sides trade diplomatic notes over remarks by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Beijing has sent a second letter to UN Secretary-General Guterres rejecting Tokyo’s latest arguments on Taiwan, accusing Japan of distorting the issue and abandoning its stated “defense-only” posture. The letter was written in reply to a letter submitted last week by Japan’s representative to the UN, Ambassador Yamazaki, who said Tokyo has long contributed to global stability and argued that Japan’s post-war security doctrine remains “strictly defensive.” In his response, Fu, China’s permanent representative to the UN, said Japan’s position was contradicted by recent statements from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who suggested on Nov. 7 that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could be classified as a “survival-threatening situation.” Such a designation could enable Japan to invoke its right to collective self-defense. (Source: Yeni Şafak - Turkey)

India
04.12.2025  Russian President Putin today began his first visit to India since 2021. Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are set to co-chair the 23rd annual India-Russia summit in New Delhi tomorrow. Defense, energy, nuclear cooperation, payment mechanisms, the BRICS bloc they founded, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are among issues they are likely to discuss. Putin’s visit comes as New Delhi faces mounting pressure from the US to halt purchases of Russian oil - Washington has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports. Putin is accompanied by a large group of businesspeople. India and Russia aim to boost the current bilateral trade volume of $68.7 billion – nearly six times higher than pre-pandemic levels – to $100 billion. New Delhi expects to increase Indian exports to Russia - pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and agricultural products (including marine products) are among areas for India to boost its exports. The two sides are also expected to sign multiple agreements and memorandums of understanding in the field of shipping, healthcare, fertilizers, and connectivity. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)

December 04, 2025  A forthcoming Fourth Pole, the organising locus for the Global South? End of globalisation and the untidy passage towards a multipolar world is now under way and likely to revolve around three established, old-power poles: Europe, the US and China. A different, more positive element of the evolving world order - the “Fourth Pole” – is a geo-economic region centred around the fast-growing Gulf states and stretching to parts of India, its vast diaspora and beyond. Individually, many of these states top the league tables for growth, are emerging as active investors in and consumers of new technologies and are arguably more geopolitically busy than the large European countries. Trade and infrastructure deals, migration and the consequences of great power competition ’are creating the conditions for a regional locus, or pole, of economic, financial and soft power’. Such a pole needs to have at least two criteria – a co-ordinated economic mass and a coherent method, or way of doing things. Europe, the US and China have mass economically and financially, as well as diplomatically (’even Europe is increasingly co-ordinated’). They all have increasingly focused industrial strategies and are military powers. By comparison, ’while Russia has nuclear weapons, it is not a pole’ given its isolation on much of the world stage. Each pole has a defined method – ’Europe is a liberal social democracy with increasingly co-ordinated policies’, China has the China Dream social contract ’between the Chinese people and the communist party’ while the US is making itself great, again. Each one has a distinctly different approach to technology, the internet and, lately, to regulating AI. So, in terms of mass and method, the idea of the Fourth Pole is a nascent one. India and Saudi Arabia, to take two of the Fourth Pole players, are meaningful economically, though less so at this stage as global or military financial players. Currently there are few policy areas where there is policy collaboration at a detailed and well-coordinated level. Building mass would take time and investment and would demand a coherence in strategy between very disparate countries. The India to Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC)/Saudi Arabia corridor is yet very different in terms of its cultures and development models and is very far from a common method. This is something that can arrive after at least 40 years of close trade and co-operation, and will be highly influenced by the Indian diaspora, which is present in huge numbers in the Gulf and Africa. Several factors suggest quicker co-operation between the Gulf states and their economic neighbours. The first is attitude. Some refer to the Middle East and North Africa as “Mena”, and this suggests a confident position on the world stage. The region has developed strong independence in its foreign policy (as opposed to being a policy taker from the US and the EU). This is evident in finance, infrastructure, labour markets and trade. On trade specifically, the Gulf has to be geopolitically ambidextrous in how it builds relationships with the US and China, though when it comes to technology, the sense is that it is very much plugged into America. Another attitudinal aspect is a form of economic agnosticism. While the great powers are busy cutting off access to each other’s supply chains, trade through the Gulf is less encumbered by geopolitics. Moreover, there are signs that the tariff war and great power rivalry have attracted more activity and talent to Gulf ports. Another factor is demographics and development economics. There is a great deal of talk about the Global South – the fast-growing, populous countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. It does their individual cultures little justice to group them together, and the idea of the Global South vastly overestimates the ability of these countries to act as a single entity. The primary challenge for these countries is to find ways to increase the level of trade between themselves, and in the long run it may be that the India-Gulf corridor becomes the organising locus for the Global South. The rise of individual Gulf states over the past 30 years proves their singular ambitions and visions. A more complicated world will bring co-ordination challenges. One is to leverage collective influence to steward lasting peace in the Middle East’s conflict zones, such as Palestine. The second is to actively co-ordinate development plans, though the GCC’s co-operation mechanisms already provide an institutional framework for this. If these succeed, then the basis of the “Fourth Pole”, one of the positive surprises of the post-globalisation era, will be set in place. (Source: National News – United Arab Emirates)
by O’Sullivan, an economist, investor and the author of ‘The Levelling – what’s next after globalisation’

Israel
(Sunday, 30.11.2025)  From early morning, thousands of people formed long lines Saturday in front of the Portuguese Embassy in Tel Aviv to apply for Portuguese citizenship, according to a report from the Times of Israel. The embassy’s special “return to the old days” in-person appointment day, organised to overcome heavy congestion in the online booking system, attracted significant attention. Those standing in a line were waiting to apply for citizenship or to renew their Portuguese passports. Portugal, through a law adopted in 2015, granted the right to apply for citizenship to Sephardic Jews. Due to the high volume of applications, the Portuguese government announced in 2023 that the law had achieved its purpose and introduced more restrictive requirements. It is noted that Israelis seek Portuguese citizenship for benefits such as free movement within EU countries, lower living costs, easier admission to European universities and lower tuition fees. Since Israel launched its war on Gaza in October 2023, the number of Israelis seeking a second passport has increased. Tens of thousands of Israelis have left the country, interest in Portuguese citizenship continues to rise. (Source: TRT World - Turkey)

Pakistan
02/12/2025, Tuesday  Pakistan and China launch their annual Warrior-IX joint counterterrorism drill which began at the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) in Kharian district's Pabbi area in northeastern Pakistan, running until mid-December. (Source: Yeni Şafak - Turkey)

Southeast Asia
2 Dec 2025  At least 1,250 people dead. What caused the extreme weather - record floods and landslides? La Nina is a natural climate pattern in which the Pacific Ocean becomes cooler than usual in the east and warmer in the west, causing winds to strengthen and push more warm water and moisture towards Asia. Different kinds of tropical storms - two cyclones and a typhoon – contributed to the disaster. Cyclone Senyar, Cyclone Ditwah and Typhoon Koto were not categorised as severe storms due to their wind speeds. They are producing more rain than they’ve ever produced. Warmer oceans fuel stronger rain bands around tropical cyclones, and a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and releases it in more intense bursts. The latest storms came less than a week after the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) ended in Brazil, without delivering the responses that countries experiencing climate change harms have repeatedly called for. Earlier this year, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), ruled that states must act urgently to address the existential threat of climate change by cooperating to cut emissions, following through on global climate agreements, and protecting vulnerable populations and ecosystems from harm. 'Failure of a state to take appropriate action to protect the climate system … may constitute an internationally wrongful act,' said ICJ President Iwasawa, in response to the case which was brought to the court by developing countries led by Vanuatu. A growing number of climate change lawsuits are making their way through courts around the world. A case was recently launched by survivors of the 2021 Super Typhoon Odette in the Philippines, who announced last month that they are suing British oil giant Shell for its role in causing the climate crisis through courts in the United Kingdom. (Source: Al Jazeera - Qatar)

December 01, 2025 3:01 AM  After a rare tropical storm formed in the Malacca Strait fuelling heavy rains and wind gusts for a week, the death toll mounted to over 600 from floods and landslides across Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Over four million people have been affected - nearly three million in southern Thailand and 1.1 million in western Indonesia. There were 435 dead in Indonesia, 170 in Thailand, and three deaths reported in Malaysia. In Indonesia, in the western island of Sumatra, three provinces had been devastated by landslides and floods. 406 people were still reported missing and 213,000 displaced. The death toll from flooding in southern Thailand at 170, and 102 injuries. Songkhla Province had the highest number of fatalities at 131. Hat Yai, the largest city in Songkhla, received 335mm of rain last Friday, its highest single-day tally in 300 years, amid days of heavy downpours. Neighbouring Malaysia had evacuated over 6,200 Malaysian nationals stranded in Thailand. Parts of Malaysia were battered last week by heavy rain and wind. There are still about 18,700 people in evacuation centres. Separately, across the Bay of Bengal, another 153 people were killed by a cyclone in the island nation of Sri Lanka, with 191 others missing and more than half a million affected nationwide. (Source: The Straits Times - Singapore)

Taiwan
(Thursday), December 04, 2025 7:27 AM  Taiwan expressed thanks and China was upset yesterday after President Trump signed into law on Tuesday the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act, requiring the US State Department to regularly review and update guidelines no less than once every five years on how the United States officially interacts with Taipei. The United States is Taiwan's most important international backer despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, and the issue is a constant source of irritation in Sino-US relations given Beijing views the democratically-governed island as its own. In 2021 under the first Trump administration, then Secretary of State Pompeo lifted restrictions on contacts between US officials and their Taiwanese counterparts, put in place after Washington recognised Beijing in 1979. In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin said China firmly opposes any form of official contact between the United States and ’the Taiwan region of China’. The Taiwan question is the core of China's core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations; the United States should exercise the utmost prudence not to send any wrong signals to Taiwan independence separatist forces, Lin said. Taiwan's government rejects China's territorial claims and says it has a right to freely engage with countries around the world. (Source: AsiaOne – Singapore)

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