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Hungary
11/03/2026 / (15/05/2026) Orbán-Trump relations: „A blessing or a curse?’ Shortly before the parliamentary elections in Hungary on 12 April, the ruling Fidesz party is trailing behind the opposition party Tisza ’in the polls’. To secure his re-election, Prime Minister Orbán is counting on support from US President Trump. It is not clear whether Trump can provide the necessary boost. The government is being shaken by one scandal after another. The regime’s election campaign has shown little novelty, resorting ’to fear mongering, just like all of its previous campaigns’. Four years ago it used the trope of a vague fear of an unspecified war. Time and again, the government has exploited a fear of immigrants ruining the country. This time, according to the regime, Hungarians should fear not only a war that Brussels might force on the country but also the costs of supporting Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán hopes to buttress his position with a visit by US President Trump right before the election. It has not so far offered him the benefits he desired. Optimistic Orbán meets ’truculent’ Trump. When Trump was re-elected in 2024, Orbán envisaged himself as a mediator, someone with connections to both Trump and Russian President Putin who could shape world politics by standing next to the US leader and the White House would finally be occupied by a friend who would help him fight so-called liberals in Hungary and the EU. Although rhetorically Trump has always supported Orbán, in practical terms one disappointment has followed another. Trump turning against Putin and even demanding that Europe stop importing Russian energy was a scenario that displeased Orbán, because it would have terminated a lucrative business for the government and its cronies, ’who have profited from buying cheaply in Russia and selling expensively at home’. Nor have Orbán’s interactions with Trump provided the Hungarian premier with the prestige and aura of a global leader that he had hoped for. Orbán has not enjoyed Trump’s confidence. A meeting in the Hungarian capital would have been a blessing for Orbán. He seems to learn about Trump’s moods and policies from the news, just like anybody else. The problem was that the Hungarian media portrayed Orbán as a leader who could foresee what was coming, enjoyed Trump’s confidence, and perhaps could even pull some strings. The announcement in October 2025 of a would-be meeting between Trump and Putin was depicted as a clear confirmation of Orbán’s leadership and significance, with Budapest heralded as the place where the war in Ukraine would finally be ended. Newspapers discussed how well-informed Orbán was, with his earlier actions revealing that he must have known about this meeting since the summer. Orbán’s foreign policy was portrayed as strategic mastery. What made it humiliating for Orbán was not the cancellation of the meeting itself but the fact that it proved he had not been consulted or invited to the table where decisions were made. Orbán’s long-awaited visit to Washington in November 2025 unfolded somewhat similarly. The prime minister claimed to have achieved much, returning home having apparently received a bullet-proof economic security shield. But not long afterwards came Trump’s frustrating correction: ‘No, I didn’t promise him [an economic shield], but he certainly asked for it.’ Orbán may also be pleased by Trump’s confrontations with the bloc. Tariffs on European exports can hit the Hungarian economy hard, which is especially inconvenient for Orbán at a time when the economy has been stagnating for the last four years, contributing to people’s dissatisfaction with the regime. Despite the scandals, mismanagement, and weak economic performance, Orbán is trying to portray himself as the only person who can protect Hungarians from war and from Ukraine, because he is the man who knows the leaders who matter, Putin and Trump. But Trump is busy fighting a new war with Iran, which does not fit well with Orban’s narrative about the peaceful new world he and his populist friends are creating. (Source: Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOIS) - Berlin, Germany)
by Kopper
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