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Italy
November 10, 2025 Africa is becoming a more competitive geopolitical arena, creating openings for new political, commercial and security alliances. Former colonial powers such as France have lost much of their influence, creating a security vacuum in the Sahel that Russia has been keen to fill. China, India and Turkiye are finding ways to bolster their influence. Italy’s role in Africa is growing. In 2008, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Lybian ruler Qaddafi signed the Treaty of Friendship, Partnership and Cooperation, helping the countries build their relationship around energy, with Libya becoming a key supplier of natural gas and oil and the two cooperating on security matters in the Mediterranean. The geopolitical uncertainty unleashed by the Arab Spring uprisings of 2010 and 2011 in North Africa and the Middle East, coupled with increasing refugee flows into Europe, prompted Italy to revise its approach, dedicating greater attention to Africa and to the “wider Mediterranean.” In 2013, Italy established the National Support Military Base in Djibouti and, in 2018, launched the Bilateral Support Mission in the Republic of Niger (MISIN), to support local security forces in the fight against terrorism, human trafficking and organized crime. Italy also took part in multilateral initiatives like the United Nations Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) or the Takuba Task Force, a European Union mission in the Sahel that was placed under French command. The nature of Italy’s current foreign policy means its progress largely depends on the prime minister remaining in office. In October 2022, during Prime Minister Meloni’s inaugural address to parliament, she named the Italy-Africa strategy the “Mattei Plan for Africa” after the late Christian Democrat politician and founder of Eni. Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has described the approach a “new pact among free nations, which choose to cooperate because they believe in the values of the centrality of the individual, the dignity of work and freedom.” The Mattei Plan seeks to break with the previous aid paradigm. The “Mattei formula,” a 75/25 profit-sharing model offered more advantages to producing countries than the more prevalent 50/50 arrangement. The current global landscape is marked by fragmentation, a crisis of multilateralism, the exhaustion of the post-Cold War aid system and the reshaping of Africa’s geopolitical order. At the same time, migration has become a key issue in Italian domestic politics. Italy increasingly plays a strategic role in Africa through cooperation with other regional powers. The Mattei Plan is based on six pillars: energy, infrastructure, water, agriculture, education and training, and health. Energy is a particularly critical domain. In January 2024, the Italy-Africa Summit, held under the slogan “a bridge for common growth,” was elevated from ministerial to head-of-state level. The Mattei Plan’s activities are run by a steering committee placed under the direct supervision of the prime minister. It was initially focused on Maghreb countries and later expanded to the sub-Saharan region, namely Mozambique (where Eni has a major gas extraction operation in the Rovuma Basin), as well as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ivory Coast. Ms. Meloni has emerged as one of Europe’s most pragmatic leaders. On the international stage, she has reinforced transatlantic ties at a time when relations between the EU and United States face mounting strain. Her time in office has enabled Italy to craft a foreign policy that addresses the country’s national and international interests, particularly as a European and Mediterranean power. Italy’s relations with Tunisia have deepened, especially in the energy and agricultural sectors. Prime Minister Meloni’s administration provides diplomatic support for President Saied and, in return, Tunisia has bolstered its commitment to curbing irregular migration flows to Italy. A flagship initiative for the near future is the ELMED project, a planned electricity interconnection linking Tunisia and Italy across the Mediterranean. Ties with Egypt have strengthened, expanding into emerging fields such as green hydrogen, while Italy has also played a key role in the EU’s decision to designate Egypt a “safe third country” for the return of asylum seekers. Algeria has become Italy’s primary supplier of natural gas. Unlike France, in most (but not all) cases, Italy is not viewed as a hostile former colonial (or neocolonial) power. With anti-French sentiment in Africa mounting, this legacy has helped Italy increase its role in the Sahel’s rapidly evolving security landscape. Italy is the only Western country maintaining a military presence in Niger. Italy has become involved in Angola’s Lobito Corridor project. Another key initiative under the Mattei Plan framework.is the Blue-Raman submarine-cable project linking Europe to India via the Mediterranean and Eastern Africa. The program is cofinanced by the European Commission and is being implemented by Telecom Italia Sparkle. African countries and institutions are becoming more engaged. The African Development Bank has now become a leading financial backer of the Mattei Plan. Ms. Meloni’s ability to manage difficult trade-offs while safeguarding core interests has been a key factor. On the other hand, a strategy that centers so deeply around any individual prime minister ’runs the risk’ of being short-lived. Another risk is that Italy increasingly, if only partially, fills the voids left by declining French influence throughout Africa – a potential for growing tension between Rome and Paris. There are two main scenarios for the program’s future. In the most likely scenario, Italy’s influence in Africa increases, with projects in African countries involving other Western actors, such as the EU or the U.S. This could help mitigate Russia’s growing presence in the Sahel. This scenario also foresees the deepening of strategic trilateral relations between Italy, African states and non-Western actors, namely Gulf countries. In a less likely scenario in the short to medium term, the Mattei Plan would be compromised by a gradual loss of Italian autonomy, as third parties like the EU assume a greater role in funding and implementing projects with African states. The EU and other European powers like France are seen as less effective or even as potential threats to African states’ national sovereignty. More risk to the plan’s viability lies in the ’possibility of sudden political shifts across Africa’. (Source: Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) - Liechtenstein)
by Nogueira Pinto, an African affairs expert
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