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Europe
Hungary
August 12, 2025 2024 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Hungary. Executive sumary: There were no significant changes in the human rights situation in Hungary during the year. There were no credible reports of significant human rights abuses. The government took credible steps to identify and punish officials who committed human rights abuses and identified areas in which it could improve. (Source: U.S. Department of State)
12 August 2025 Hungary PM Orbán refuses to back EU ahead of Trump-Putin talks (Source: Brussels Sigmal - Belgium)
European Commission
(11 August 2025) Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, said that ministers expressed support for US steps that will lead to a just peace, following the informal virtual foreign affairs council (FAC) - also attended by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha. 'Transatlantic unity, support to Ukraine and pressure on Russia is how we will end this war and prevent future Russian aggression in Europe. Meanwhile, we work on more sanctions against Russia, more military support for Ukraine and more support for Ukraine’s budgetary needs and accession process to join the EU,' she added. The situation and latest developments in the Middle East, in particular the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza, were also on the agenda for Monday's foreign affairs council. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will on Wednesday chair an emergency meeting of the coalition of the willing 'which Trump and Zelenskyy will join'. The leaders of Italy, Finland, Poland, NATO's Secretary-General as well as der Leyen and Costa, who helm the European Commission and European Council respectively, are also expected to participate. France said other videoconference meetings will be held on the same day in various formats, including one attended by President Trump. (Source: Euronews - based in Lyon, France)
Armenia
Tuesday, August 12, 2025 3:12 AM Armenians, Georgians, and Central Asians vary in response to Yerevan-Baku Settlement. Geopolitical realities the agreement creates: In Armenia, ’President’ (PM) Nikol Pashinyan is wholeheartedly in favor of the accord. But many Armenian politicians oppose the deal, viewing it as a harbinger of a further decline in the size of their country or even a harbinger of its complete disappearance. They fear that the arrangements that have been announced will leave them isolated. ’Moscow’ is likely to try to set them against the Pashinyan regime so as to return Armenia to what the Russians believe is their proper place as a part of Russia’s uncontested sphere of influence. In Georgia, some believe the new transit arrangements will make it easier for Iran to ship via Armenia and then into Georgia for transshipment on to Europe and thus will benefit Georgia and firmly integrate it in the world. Others, most prominently former president Saakashvili who is now in prison, says that the new Zengezur route, one that bypasses Georgia, Iran and Russia will be a disaster for híd republic both at home and abroad, Georgians are ending up in complete geopolitical isolation alongside Iran and Russia. The corridor project would render Georgia’s existing ports – and the planned Lazika port – obsolete, leading to accelerated emigration and deepening poverty. In Central Asia, the governments have come out in support of the
transit deal, confident that if it is realized, the Middle Corridor transit network will expand and work to their benefit. But many of them remain concerned that there are so many unknowns. (Source: Window on Eurasia – New Series)
by Goble
Russia
August 13, 2025 1:54pm EDT Russia may gain Ukraine’s fertile, resource-rich territory as Trump proposes land swap. Russian forces currently occupy one-fifth of Ukraine including areas rich in lithium, coal and offshore gas reserves. (Source: Fox News - U.S.)
15:27 ET, Aug 12 2025 Russia breaks through Ukrainian frontline as Putin sends 110,000 troops days before Trump summit. It comes as Russia accused the UK of trying to sabotage upcoming peace talks between Trump and Putin. (Source: The U.S. Sun)
August 12, 2025 Russian Ground Forces (RGF) highly likely seized approximately 500-550 sq km of Ukrainian territory in July 2025, the British Ministry of Defence assessed in its latest intelligence estimate on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict - observing that this rate of advance was roughly the same as it had been in June and in previous months. Russian forces are now in control of almost all the Donetsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk. Continued losses and Ukrainian counterattacks have likely frustrated the Russian intent to establish a buffer zone in the Sumy region, the British Ministry of Defence estimated. (The National Interest - U.S.)
by Atlamazoglou
August 11, 2025 Will Russian gas return to Europe? For decades, Russia was Europe’s key source of gas, supplying up to forty percent of EU consumption, some 155 billion cubic meters, in 2021. Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy giant, made the bulk of its profits in Europe, which enabled the cross-subsidization of domestic industry and households, as well as advancing an economic development agenda. The political economy in Europe may have already moved against Russian gas. The EU’s stated policy goal is to phase out Russian gas by the end of 2027 and to put an end to Moscow’s ability to weaponize gas exports. Russia was reduced to a marginal supplier, delivering a mere 51.6 bcm in 2024, of which 31.6 bcm was pipeline gas. Still, some EU policymakers have been keen to keep the door open for Russian gas to return - part of a package deal should peace talks on Ukraine eventually come to fruition, reconstituting European industry’s competitiveness on a global scale. A US investor recently seemed interested in operating what’s left of the Nord Stream system after underwater explosions destroyed three of the four pipeline legs. With a major piece of import infrastructure coming back online, Russian gas flows to Europe could resume, now under US control, provided still-existing sanctions on Nord Stream 2 are lifted. Once politically palatable, Russian gas may be back in the game. Whether those molecules will find a market welcoming them is another thing. (Source: The National Imterest - U.S.)
by Goldthau, a Franz Haniel Professor of Public Policy at the faculty of economics, law and social sciences and Director of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy at the University of Erfurt; Vatansever is Reader in Russian Political Economy in the King’s Russia Institute and author of ‘Oil in Putin’s Russia: The Contests Over Rents and Economic Policy‘. He speaks Russian, Bulgarian, Turkish and English.
Ukraine
13/08/2025 - 20:38 Ukraine will be in 'a situation similar to that of Germany in the Cold War' after ceasefire. Lucas, Professor of International Politics at the University College Dublin Clinton Institute, says that following a ceasefire, Ukraine may find itself in the same position as Germany during the Cold War, enjoying the continued support of the West and integration in Europe, and that Kyiv envisages accepting short-term occupation as Russia struggles economically and holds territory which is 'burnt to the ground.' (Source: France 24)
(13 August 2025) The war-ravaged territories at the heart of the Trump-Putin summit (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
Asia
China
August 11, 2025 China in Europe: July 2025. The one-day China-EU summit held in Beijing on July 24 marked years of diplomatic relations between the two sides. The talks were marked by tension from the start: Chinese President Xi refused to follow protocol and travel to Brussels, insisting that the EU leaders come to China. The decision to shorten the two-day meeting to one at China’s request reiterated Beijing’s obstinance. Trade dominated the meeting agenda. Chief among the EU’s concerns was Chinese industrial overcapacity, fueled by heavy state subsidies. The European Union’s trade deficit with China hit €300 billion in 2024, which Brussels considers unsustainable. Der Leyen noted how unless China addressed its overproduction of goods such as batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, and steel, “it would be difficult for the EU to maintain its current level of openness.” Despite tensions, some incremental progress was made. The two sides agreed to fast-track licenses for rare earths - materials overwhelmingly controlled by China and essential to European industry. In a thinly veiled jab at Washington, Xi reminded his EU counterparts that “in the face of accelerating changes not seen in a century and a turbulent international landscape, China and EU leaders must . . . make the right strategic choices that meet the expectations of the people and stand the test of history.” The European side was far more interested in discussing Ukraine. Brussels called on Beijing to use its influence over Moscow to push for a ceasefire, as “China has an influence on Russia, like the European Union has an influence on Ukraine. . . Costa also stressed how as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Beijing has a special responsibility to push for a ceasefire. Overall, the summit made minimal progress on geopolitical issues. Both sides issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to the Paris Agreement and announced that green is the defining color of China-EU cooperation. The joint statement made no mention of the fuel, however. China and the EU also promised to submit new emissions targets before the thirtieth Conference of the Parties in Brazil this November. From July 19 to 28, Serbian special forces conducted joint training exercises in China’s Hebei Province, the first such operation between the two militaries. Code-named Peace Guardian 2025, the exercises included drone-assisted practice missions in urban and rural environments. The recent drills were conducted despite U.S. and EU objections. (Source: The Council on Foreign Relations - U.S.)
by Ruggi
August 11, 2025 For China, the Ukraine war is a laboratory. Confronting Beijing’s role is a strategic necessity. China’s position as the arsenal for Russia makes it a key arbiter of the war’s intensity. By serving as the essential economic and industrial enabler for Russia, China has gained a unique vantage point. It can assess how the components of military systems it is providing in huge numbers perform in combat, gather intelligence on the effectiveness of Ukrainian and Western weapons, and refine the concepts it will use to guide its own weapons development, military training, and organizational structures. ’All of these efforts will serve to ready the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) should it one day engage in a conflict with the United States’. As the logistical backbone of Russia’s military-industrial complex, China tests its industrial capacity to support a partner in a sustained, high-intensity conflict and to understand the implications for supporting its own forces in combat. As early as 2023, approximately 90 percent of Russia’s imported microelectronics — the chips essential for modern missiles, tanks, and aircraft — came from China. Nearly 70 percent of Russia’s machine tool imports in the last quarter of 2023, valued at around $900 million, were sourced from China, replacing the high-end German and Japanese equipment Russia could no longer acquire. Beijing also quickly became Moscow’s primary supplier of nitrocellulose, the key propellant for artillery shells, with exports surging from negligible amounts before the war to over 1,300 tons in 2023 — enough to produce hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds. An estimated 80 percent of the electronic components in Russian drones are originating from China. Russia now aims to manufacture an estimated two million first-person view (FPV) drones in 2025. In May 2025, China has not only halted sales of popular DJI Mavic drones to Ukraine but has also restricted exports of key components while simultaneously increasing those same shipments to Russia. Beijing is no longer a neutral observer but a direct participant influencing the war’s daily outcomes. The PLA is gaining critical knowledge about modern warfare — from drone employment to electronic countermeasures — all without putting a single Chinese soldier in harm’s way. PLA intelligence is meticulously studying the performance of key US-made systems, from the Patriot air defense system to the HIMARS rocket artillery. By observing how Russian forces — often equipped with Chinese components — respond to Ukrainian and Western systems and tactics, the PLA gains critical insights into how to counter them. This is particularly evident in the electronic warfare domain. China’s learning is also not passive; in fact, Chinese state-backed hacking groups have aggressively targeted Russian defense institutes to exfiltrate battlefield data that Moscow had been unwilling to share. Te war enables China to observe and adapt to new military concepts. They are also closely analyzing Ukraine’s success with naval drones as a potential template for how Taiwan could resist a PLA invasion. Taiwan manufactures over 90 percent of the world’s most advanced logic chips. ’The loss of this production would trigger a global economic crisis estimated at as much as $10 trillion’. China is closely observing the West’s use of unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia to guide its efforts to sanction-proof its own economy. Beijing is learning how to insulate its own financial systems and supply chains from similar pressure. It has dramatically increased the use of the yuan in bilateral trade, and it is building up its Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as an alternative to SWIFT. "A diplomatic understanding with Moscow would be ineffectual' if the Russian military continues to be armed and technologically upgraded by Beijing. The People’s Liberation Army is assiduously learning how to counter American weapons, how to wage war in a dense electronic environment, and how to sustain a high-intensity conflict — all without putting a single soldier at risk. Beijing’s state-directed system is designed to rapidly absorb and implement these lessons across its entire military-industrial complex. The central challenge is no longer just about containing Russia; it is about out-thinking and out-adapting a peer competitor who has found the perfect, low-cost laboratory for the next war. Failure to fully grasp the stakes of this learning competition will mean that when the next crisis comes, America may face an adversary that has already fought a war against its weapons and its strategies — and has learned how to win. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
By General Petraeus (US Army, Ret.) who served over 37 years in the US military, culminating his career with six consecutive commands, including Command of the Surge in Iraq, US Central Command, and the International Security Force in Afghanistan. He served as Director of the CIA during a period of significant achievement in the war on terror. He is currently a Partner with the global investment firm KKR and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute. He is the Kissinger Fellow at Yale University, and the co-author of the bestselling book, Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine; Kaluderovic is an entrepreneur in the AI and data center sectors, a Fellow with the International Strategy Forum, and Founder and CEO of Mental Help Global, an AI-enabled social media platform being built in Ukraine.
Philippine Sea
August 13, 2025 United Kingdom, Japan and the United States are training their navies together, drilling in the Northern Philippine Sea, as part of the United Kingdom-led “Operation Highmast.” The drill of HMS Prince of Wales, USS George Washington, and JS Kaga aircraft carriers is bringing together scores of fighter jets and dozens of other warships. The US Navy deployed a Wasp-class amphibious assault ship that can also carry fighter jets. (Source: The National Interest U.S.)
by Atlamazoglou
North America
United States
12 August 2025 Official Europe is anxious and apprehensive about Friday’s summit in Alaska between Putin and Trump. Perhaps their worst fears will finally be realised, and Trump will force Zelensky to sign a deal that imperils Ukraine’s existence. But perhaps not. It’s worth recalling that this is not the first time that Trump brokered an unprecedented summit with the world expecting him get suckered by or sign a bad deal with a tyrant – with North Korean dictator Kim in Hanoi in 2019. Kim did offer Trump a bad deal. Trump shocked everyone, including Kim, by leaving the summit early. Trump knew this was a bad deal and a day of trying to talk Kim into a better deal was going nowhere, his time was being wasted and that humiliation might be what Kim needed to wise up. Trump knows what he wants and doesn’t submit when he doesn’t get it. What does Trump want from Russia? Trump talks about an end to the war, not a limited ceasefire. Kremlin officials have stated they want to limit the size of any post-peace Ukrainian military and limit its ability to acquire more Western arms. They also want Ukraine to state neutrality between NATO and Russia and not join any mutual defence pacts with other nations. These terms would make Ukraine a sitting duck for a future Russian invasion. Trump’s pattern is to never agree to any deal that does not give him his bottom line. ’All the signals from Washington so far’ indicate that a post-war Ukraine would be genuinely independent – and that means the ability to defend itself. A grateful Ukraine would be happy to repay America for the aid that saved it through this deal. (Source: Brussels Signal - Belgium)
August 12, 2025 The U.S. government’s gross national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, a record number that highlights the accelerating debt on America’s balance sheet and increased cost pressures on taxpayers. The Congressional Budget Office’s January 2020 projections had gross federal debt eclipsing $37 trillion after fiscal year 2030. (Source: AP - U.S.)
8/12/2025 US deficit grows to $291 billion in July despite tariff revenue surge. (Source: MSN - U.S.)
August 12, 2025. At his meeting last week with United States Special Envoy Witkoff, Russian president Putin staved off impending US sanctions by proposing a path forward for Ukraine. In return for Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Donetsk region, Putin reportedly agreed to pause the war across the front lines. After sitting down with his European counterparts over the weekend, Vice President Vance, echoing his past assessment that Moscow is asking for too much by claiming areas it has not yet captured on the battlefield, appeared to pour cold water on the prospect of Ukraine walking away completely from Donetsk. Instead, Vance set expectations that territorial control would be set at the current line of contact, and in line with “some negotiated settlement that the Ukrainians and Russians can live with.” President Trump should invite Zelensky to Alaska, a step he has reportedly contemplated. The military strongholds of Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk are important to Ukraine’s overall military posture that protects Ukraine’s central heartlands. Ukraine would only withdraw from these positions voluntarily 'if it is offered membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), from the West'. The United States should make clear to the Kremlin that while it will accept Russia’s de facto control over parts of Ukraine, it will not offer Moscow de jure recognition of those areas. Under the terms of any ceasefire, Ukrainians living under occupation should be offered an opportunity to pass into Ukraine-controlled territory. The United States should actively support the reconstitution of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). ’Kyiv will need the freedom to purchase liberally from Western arms markets, likely with European financing, for munitions such as Taurus missiles and Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets’. The United States should push for limitations on the size and scope of Russian forces in or around the newly occupied territories, and should insist that North Korean troops in Russia, reportedly numbering in the tens of thousands, return home. ’The United States should back European efforts to deploy a reassurance force’ into Ukraine, comprising British or French soldiers which stationed near vital sectors may give Russia pause. Trump should make clear to Putin in Alaska that the price of walking away from discussions or violating a US-brokered deal in the future would be economic warfare on a scale not yet seen. As Putin packs for the meetings in Alaska, the Russian military is cutting across key Ukrainian lines of communication in the eastern part of the country. The stark discrepancy between the Kremlin’s professed offer of a ceasefire and the Russian military’s inch-by-inch push for more territory raises questions about Putin’s true motives. (Source: The National Interest - U.S.)
by Rough, a Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute; Kasapoğlu, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute. His work focuses on political-military affairs in the Middle East, North Africa and former Soviet regions.
12.08.2025 The U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) Lieutenant Colonel Fritz, writing for the Breaking Defense portal, presented a plan aimed at acquiring new territories for the United States. Lt. Col. Fritz’s original idea concerns Russia’s Commander Islands - chain of islands, located at the junction of the Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea. The United States would gain additional protection for Arctic sea routes and the ability to deploy further undersea surveillance technologies. As Fritz points out, the Commander Islands are located near a possible route from China’s Jianggezhuang naval base to the Arctic region. The chances of a sale are currently negligible. (Source: Defence24 - Poland)
12.08.25 Trump extends US-China trade truce for 90 days, delays escalation of tariff war. Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that he signed the executive order for the extension, and that 'all other elements of the Agreement will remain the same.' (Source: The Telegraph - India)
United Nations
August 12, 2025 12:56 AM ET China and the U.S. clash at the U.N. over the Panama Canal.
Global
August 12, 2025 2024 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices / Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (Source: U.S. Department of State)
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