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Europe
Hungary
July 24, 2025 Budapest mayor is probed for organizing city’s banned Pride event. Hungarian state police will question mayor Karácsony, who has been asked to appear for questioning as a suspect sometime next week. Karácsony 'freed' organizers from the need to obtain police permission, organizing the event as a municipal undertaking. Karácsony previously told Hungarian media that he alone bears legal responsibility for organizing the event and that he will be happy to defend himself in court. The government passed legislation in March prohibiting public assemblies that promote or display the LGBTQ+ community, under the pretext of protecting children, and refused to issue police permits that would allow the June 28 Budapest Pride event to go ahead. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
July 24, 2025 The Hungarian government has banned the Irish rap group Kneecap from entering the country, citing 'antisemitic hate speech and open praise for Hamas and Hezbollah.' 'Granting them a stage normalizes hate and terror, and puts democratic values on the line,' a government spokesperson said today. Kneecap’s members are staunch critics of Israel, accusing it of committing war crimes in Gaza - but they have also been criticized for allegedly supporting the Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups, which they deny. The band was set to perform at the major Sziget Festival in Budapest on Aug. 11. The Israeli ambassador to Budapest applauded the travel ban. (Source: Politico - U.S.)
European Commission
24/07/2025 Der Leyen warned today that China's ties with Russia were now the 'determining' factor in its relations with the European Union, as she wrapped up 'a tense summit' in Beijing. /Video/ (Source: France 24)
Russia
24.07.2025 Can nuclear weapons help avert a Russia-NATO war? The Ukraine conflict may well pave the way for a larger scale Russia-NATO confrontation. In the event of direct military confrontation, Russia would most likely initially deploy conventional weapons against any adversary. NATO should be under no illusion of achieving facile victory in conventional warfare. The Russian armed forces possess substantial combat experience, including extensive defensive operations. Nevertheless, Russia would confront a formidable adversary. While hard to fathom and with everything suggesting that the scenario remains quite unlikely, it relies on nuclear deterrence as its main pillar. The perception of nuclear weapons as a deterrent has firmly taken root in international relations. In fact, the use of nuclear weapons has evolved into a political and moral taboo, even if military planners and researchers have been exploring and modelling various scenarios involving their use. It is still commonplace to believe that using nuclear weapons is unacceptable and that the odds of a nuclear power facing an aggression are quite low. While nuclear weapons remain the bedrock of deterrence, their employment taboo and ability to avert aggression are again in question. This question is becoming increasingly urgent for Russia considering the prospects of a possible major military confrontation with NATO or its members, or in the context of the Ukraine conflict. In terms of their manufacturing, financial capabilities and resources, NATO countries may well get ahead of Russia at a certain point by making more conventional weapons. This, in turn, would enable them to exert more political pressure based on their military might. There are several varying scenarios for a possible Russia-NATO military confrontation. For example, certain NATO countries may intervene in the Ukraine conflict. There is also a scenario involving a military and political crisis in the Baltics or in other regions. Any developments along these lines risk escalating into a major conflict. Ukraine has been routinely targeting Russian territory with drones and cruise missiles, while also undertaking attempts to invade its territory. Military personnel from certain NATO countries may be joining these operations as formal units and formations rather than by pretending to be off-duty fighters, volunteers or mercenaries. Could such developments be prevented through nuclear deterrence? Superficially, the answer appears affirmative. The Ukraine conflict has demonstrated that missile strikes, aviation assets, artillery systems and similar capabilities - while inflicting damage - fail to critically undermine enemy resilience. NATO possesses damage mitigation capabilities identical to those of Ukraine, merely on an exponentially greater scale. Unlike Ukraine, ’Western countries currently demonstrate reduced psychological tolerance for human casualties’. That said, concerted political mobilisation and strategic propaganda could recalibrate societal sensitivity to losses and acceptance of wartime sacrifices. The fostering NATO's illusion of impunity – the conviction that Russia would refrain from nuclear weapons use due to fears of inevitable retaliation. - renders gradual conventional escalation feasible, potentially expanding from Ukrainian war theatre to a broader regional conflict, necessitating the abandonment of Cold War-era deterrence frameworks. Two alternatives exist regarding Russia's potential employment of nuclear weapons in direct conflict with NATO: preemptive tactical strikes against enemy troop concentrations and critical infrastructure; or comparable strikes following conventional escalation. The former scenario proves politically less sustainable, risking Russia's designation as aggressor and consequent international isolation. The latter, while slightly reducing political costs, still permits accusations that Moscow violated the nuclear taboo first. Both scenarios preserve NATO's capacity to deliver nuclear or conventional counterstrikes. Any Russian nuclear deployment risks devastating retaliation, presenting Moscow with an existential dilemma: persist with conventional operations despite potential defeat; continue tactical nuclear exchanges; or eliminate the adversary by employing strategic nuclear weapons, something that guarantees annihilation by a retaliatory strike. Nuclear warfare admits no victors - only in scenarios where one party demonstrates critical weakness. Any strategic calculus predicated upon an adversary's potential collapse risks catastrophic miscalculation for both sides. The inevitable losers in either nuclear or conventional escalation scenarios include: a) Ukraine as primary battleground; b) Russia facing sustained missile and other types of strikes and potential offensives; c) European NATO members, particularly on the eastern and north-eastern flanks who will be subjected to Russian counterstrikes and, under favourable to Russia conditions, to possible advances of its armed forces. The United States will remain relatively insulated except in scenarios involving the use of strategic nuclear weapons. Though, for Washington, no guarantees exist regarding controllable escalation from conventional to tactical and later strategic nuclear strikes. Yet historical precedent demonstrates that quite often prospective losses did not prevent major catastrophies and conflicts. The possibility of a return to extreme-era dynamics cannot be dismissed. So, the Americans may also be among the losers. (Source: Valdai Club - Russia)
by Timofeev, Valdai Club Programme Director
Ukraine
July 24, 2025 4:14 AM ET After protests, Zelenskyy says he'll restore the independence of Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies. /Audio/ (Source: NPR - U.S.)
24 July 2025, 09:03 A Ukrainian drone 'spectacularly drops a homemade incendiary device - thermite munition - on a shelter of Russian soldiers in a house' in the Donetsk region. The improvised bomb consists of an aircraft flare surrounded by four bottles of gasoline, creating a ’highly effective’ incendiary weapon that ignited intense flames upon impact. 'Such low-cost, easily assembled devices have evolved from Ukraine’s earlier thermite-dispensing drone strikes into more advanced' incendiary tactics. /Video/ (Source: Leading Britain's Conversation (LBC) - United Kingdom)
July 24, 2025 4:01 AM CET There’s an insidious enemy and corrosive adversary from within - the country’s own semi-autocratic leadership. Ukraine’s presidential administration has been grabbing more power, weakening other governing and regional institutions - including the country’s parliament - while also intimidating critics in a bid to silence them with hue-and-cry campaigns or by labeling them as Russian stooges. Zelenskyy approved a new law, No. 12414, after it was rushed through the Verkhovna Rada with almost unprecedented haste, which will hand substantial authority to the politically appointed prosecutor general, gutting two key anti-corruption agencies which had been zeroing in on top government officials. According to local media, 18 of the lawmakers who voted in favor of the new law are suspects in NABU probes. The law grants the prosecutor general’s office the power to issue orders to these agencies and reassign cases to their own prosecutor, in effect dismantling the safeguards that protect those bodies from undue political meddling. A National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) land-grab probe into former Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshov is something that would have terrified insiders. The new narrative is simple: You’re either with Zelenskyy or you’re a Russian agent. The presidential administration had started going after anti-corruption activists like Shabunin, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center NGO. Shabunin warned on social media: ’Zelensky’s prosecutor general will stop investigations against all the president’s friends.’ Opposition lawmaker Knyazhitskiy also agrees. “NABU has been close to bringing charges against several extremely influential people, and the authorities needed to protect themselves urgently,’ he told. He also suspects Zelenskyy and Yermak felt they could curtail the independence of the agencies and escape punishment. ’In effect, the anti-corruption infrastructure was dismantled by the votes of 263 members of parliament, NABU chief Kryvonos said at a joint press briefing with chief Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Klymenko. “The two independent institutions, NABU and SAP, are effectively being made fully dependent.’ In Kyiv, hundreds of protesters gathered near the presidential complex. The move prompted the first country-wide street protests since 2022 - crowds of veterans, active-duty soldiers and civilians gathered in dozens of other towns, including Lviv and the frontline cities of Odesa and Dnipro. Kyiv’s democratic backsliding has finally caught the world’s attention. According to Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist and host of the “War Room” podcast, Zelenskyy knows MAGA is trying to nail him on stealing billions. ’Better to have Taylor Greene and the War Room whine about corruption than actually have an office and folks there that he does not control doing something about it,’ he told. For months, EU officials and diplomats ’have been unhappy’ with the purges and reshuffles that have seen the departure of more independent-minded ministers and officials from government, such as former head of Ukraine’s national power transmission network, Kudrytskyi. ’They were uncomfortable with the dismissal of armed forces commander General Zaluzhny - who had clashed with the president over both war strategy and the need to mobilize many more Ukrainians to fight’ - not to mention the inexplicable hold that Yermak seems to have over Zelenskyy. EU officials also expressed ’fears’ that the search for traitors and Russian collaborators mounted by authorities was turning into political witch hunts aimed at silencing critics. ’Until now, these concerns were kept private - largely to avoid undermining Western support for Ukraine’s defense.’ Posting on social media before the new law’s approval, European Commissioner for Enlargement Kos said the situation would hurt Ukraine’s accession negotiations. The ambassadors of G7 nations in Kyiv issued a joint statement expressing their serious concerns. European Commission President has demanded ’answers’ from Zelenskyy. The fierceness of the public response likely caught the EU’s attention as well. The Kyiv Independent, read closely in Brussels, headlined its sharply critical editorial: ’Zelensky just betrayed Ukraine’s democracy - and everyone fighting for it. So why are EU officials only now publicly expressing their worries about this monopolization of power? Zelenskyy and Yermak believe neither the EU nor the U.S. will show as much interest in the activities of anti-corruption bodies as they did before, since 'they will still be forced' to support Ukraine, Knyazhitskiy said. (Source: Politico - U.S., owned by a German company)
by Dettmer, opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist
Asia
China
24.07.2025 European Commission President der Leyen said the EU and China agreed today to smooth rare earth export restrictions. 'She stressed that the bloc's trade deficit with China (€306bn) has doubled in the last decade', and urged a balanced trade so it can remain mutual and beneficial. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
24.07.2025 In his opening remarks at the 25th EU-China summit that began at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Xi said the Chinese and European leaders should meet the expectations of the people. The Chinese leader along with Premier Li met European Commission President der Leyen and the head of the European Council Costa. Mutual respect, seeking common ground while reserving differences, open cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win results should be adhered to in the future development of China-EU relations, Xi said, stressing that both China and Europe are constructive forces that advocate multilateralism and open cooperation. China and Europe should strengthen communication, enhance mutual trust, and deepen cooperation, so as to provide more stability and certainty to the world. '’Faced with the accelerated evolution of the world's century-old changes and the international situation of intertwined changes and chaos, the leaders of China and the EU should once again demonstrate their foresight and responsibility and make correct strategic choices that meet the expectations of the people and stand the test of history," he said. The day-long key summit is expected to be dominated by issues ranging from trade disputes to the Russia-Ukraine war. Issues of trade imbalance, market access and rare earths are also on the agenda. Der Leyen, for her part, called the summit an opportunity to "both advance and rebalance our relationship," the two sides’ annual trade being more than $860 billion. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
India
(24 July 2025) India has resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese nationals after a five-year gap as the two countries continue to explore ways to mend their strained relationship. (Source: BBC - United Kingdom)
Turkey
July 24, 2025 4:17 AM ET Russia and Ukraine held a third round of peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey yesterday. The two sides failed to make any significant progress towards a ceasefire agreement. (Source: NPR - U.S.)
(24 July 2025) 06:30 Brief talks between Russia and Ukraine ended after just an hour. (Source: The Irish Independent - Ireland)
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