Egyik 19

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Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo
April 15, 2025  Act or watch? The Democratic Republic of the Congo is offering the United States significant mining rights in exchange for military support. In February 2025, President Tshisekedi wrote to President Trump asking for help pushing back the M23 rebel group. It is using access to cobalt, copper and lithium as leverage. The DRC hosts more than 1,100 different minerals and precious metals – including tin, tungsten and tantalum – and is also the world's fourth-largest diamond producer. The country holds an estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral wealth. It produced 244,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2024, almost 80% of the global supply. The deal could help Kinshasa reduce its dependence on China. Officials in Washington have signalled a willingness to consider multibillion-dollar investment in return. The discussions form part of a broader push to secure new supplies of battery metals as demand for electric vehicles and energy infrastructure accelerates. US support in the DRC has primarily taken the form of traditional development aid, focusing on health and education rather than strategic commercial engagement. They have done little to advance trade, investment or mineral security goals. The Export-Import Bank of the US (EXIM) offers no coverage for the DRC. The Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Washington's development finance institution, has focused narrowly on the Lobito Corridor. China has a dominant interest in the DRC's mining sector. Over the past two decades, China has seized the opportunity to fill the vacuum left by American absence from the country. The landmark 2007 Sicomines deal – a resource-for-infrastructure agreement – granted Chinese companies access to copper and cobalt in exchange for a $3bn infrastructure commitment. The deposits near Kolwezi – one of the DRC's most important mining regions in the south of the country – are estimated to be worth around $93bn. China's dominance was further cemented in 2016 when US-based Freeport-McMoRan sold its majority stake in Tenke Fungurume (TFM) – the world’s largest cobalt mine and seventh-largest copper mine – to China Molybdenum Company (CMOC). Freeport, heavily indebted following misjudged oil and gas acquisitions before the 2014 price crash, announced the $2.65bn sale in May 2016. Canadian firm Lundin Mining, which held a 24% stake, declined its right of first refusal. CMOC stepped in, backed by $1.59bn in financing from six Chinese banks, including state-owned giants such as the Bank of China and China Development Bank. It then facilitated the purchase of Lundin's stake by Hong Kong-based BHR, which used $700mn in Chinese bank financing. CMOC later took over BHR's interest, securing 80% control of TFM. Gécamines, the DRC's state miner, retained 20%. Chinese state-owned banks financed $2.48bn of the $2.68bn in credit used for the TFM deal (adjusted to 2021 prices). Washington’s failure to contest the TFM sale is arguably the most significant commercial misstep it has made in Africa. Today, China owns or holds stakes in 15 of the DRC's largest copper and cobalt mines. Glencore, the country's last major Western mining investor, is reportedly weighing the sale of its $6.8bn Mutanda and Kamoto operation – raising the prospect of another strategic asset falling into Chinese hands. The most significant Chinese mining projects include the Kamoa-Kakula copper project, Tenke Fungurume mine and Kamoto copper. The Kamoa-Kakula copper project is owned by a joint venture comprising Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River Global (0.8%) and the DRC government (20%). The project is among the world's most significant undeveloped high-grade copper discoveries, with measured resources of 90mn tonnes at 3.13% copper and probable mineral reserves of 235mn tonnes. The mine started producing concentrates in May 2021, with commercial production beginning in July 2021. It is being advanced through a phased approach, with peak production estimated at 800,000 tpy. This would make the project the second-biggest copper complex globally. The Tenke Fungurume mine is a copper-cobalt project owned by Chinese private holding company CMOC (80%) and Gécamines (20%). CMOC acquired controlling interests in the mine in 2017 in a $3bn transaction, and in August 2021 it announced plans to double production with a $2.51bn investment. The investments will raise output from 183,000 tpy of copper to 383,000 tpy, and from 15,400 tpy of cobalt to 32,400 tpy, bringing total mineral production to 415,400 tpy. It is the world’s second-largest cobalt mine. The Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) is owned by a joint venture comprising Glencore (75%), Gécamines (20%) and Simco (5%). It is the largest active cobalt mine in the world. KCC owns two open-cast mines (KOV and Mashamba East), one underground mine (Kamoto concentrator) and the Luili refinery in Kolwezi. KCC targets an annual nameplate capacity of 300,000 tonnes of copper and 30,000 tonnes of cobalt. Much of the mineral production is concentrated in the southern provinces of Haut-Katanga and Lualaba, where established industrial operations operate alongside thousands of artisanal miners. The country was attracting more than $130mn in exploration investment in 2024. In the same year, it secured $1.8bn in foreign direct investment (FDI). Vast areas remain underdeveloped, particularly in the east, where insecurity, poor roads and overlapping concessions deter formal investment. North Kivu and Ituri are thought to hold significant untapped reserves. Cobalt is essential to lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles (EVs), while copper underpins power grids, electric motors and charging infrastructure. By 2030, global cobalt demand is expected to double and the DRC is forecast to contribute 44% of the supply growth. Lithium and tantalum – of which the DRC is also a leading producer – are critical to semiconductors, smartphones and defence applications. Kinshasa faces increasing pressure to scale up production, strengthen governance and broaden its investor base beyond Chinese state-backed operators. The DRC dominates global cobalt reserves, holding 6mn tonnes out of a total of 11mn tonnes worldwide. Two other mines Mutanda and Kamoto also hold significant reserves. Australia and Indonesia follow with 1.7mn tonnes and 500,000 tonnes respectively. In copper, the DRC’s ore bodies grades exceed 2.5%, more than four times the global average and eight times higher than at Morenci, the largest copper mine in the US. The DRC is dubbed 'the Saudi Arabia of electric vehicle age'. The global thirst for copper is expected to jump by 20% by 2035. The country also has vast coltan reserves and is a significant, though underdeveloped, source of lithium. Manono-Kitolo, in the southern province of Tanganyika, is believed by some to be the world’s largest lithium deposit. It contains an estimated 120mn tonnes of lithium ore grading 0.6%, yielding around 720,000 tonnes of lithium. The project remains stalled due to a dispute between China’s Zijin Mining and Australia’s AVZ Minerals. In the country's eastern areas armed groups have disrupted mining zones. As of April 2025, the DRC is battling its most serious escalation of violence in years, with the M23 rebel group launching a renewed and highly coordinated offensive in the east. Since January, the group has overrun large parts of North and South Kivu, seizing control of strategic cities including Goma and Bukavu. The offensive has killed an estimated 7,000 people and displaced more than 450,000. M23, composed mainly of Congolese Tutsi fighters, as intercepted communications suggest, is receiving direct military support from Rwanda – including the deployment of an estimated 4,000 Rwandan troops. The DRC accuses Rwanda of seeking control over key mineral zones, including coltan, gold and cobalt areas. President Tshisekedi has turned to Washington. The move highlights Kinshasa's effort to shift away from reliance on Chinese and Rwandan-backed operators in the mining sector. Peace talks in Doha between Kinshasa and M23 have stalled. The conflict could spill across borders and further destabilise the Great Lakes region. American firms have remained marginal players in the Congolese mining sector. At the start of December 2024 President Biden visited Angola to promote the Lobito Corridor – a $4bn rail and port project aimed at channelling copper and cobalt from central Africa – including the DRC – to global markets through the Port of Lobito, the Angola harbour located on the Atlantic Ocean. The corridor is a strategic alternative to Chinese-dominated logistics. An additional $600mn in funding was pledged during Biden’s visit, and US diplomats confirmed in April 2025 that financing remains on track. The goal is to streamline mineral exports from Zambia and southern DRC, improving transparency and making the region more attractive to Western investors. If successful, the corridor could shift trade patterns and reduce reliance on routes controlled by state-linked Chinese companies. It is unclear whether the Trump administration will back the project. Trump’s Africa advisers have favoured more direct exchanges – military or diplomatic support in return for resource access – and Tshisekedi’s proposal appears to follow that logic. The president's advisers have openly framed resource access as a foreign policy priority, particularly in countries where traditional development models have struggled. The Congolese side is pressing for clear timelines and deliverables. China has also announced plans to invest $1.4bn in the ageing railway that links Dar es Salaam in Tanzania with Zambia's Copperbelt. The investment was unveiled on 20 March 2025 during the Zambia International Mining and Energy Conference. Under a trilateral deal with Tanzania and Zambia, the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) will rehabilitate the 1,860-km TAZARA line over three years and operate it for 30 years. The agreement includes $1bn for infrastructure upgrades and $400mn for new rolling stock, including 32 locomotives and 762 wagons. Originally built with Chinese support in the 1970s to bypass white-ruled southern Africa, the TAZARA line remains a strategic outlet for Zambian copper exports via the Indian Ocean. It terminates at Kapiri Mposhi, connecting with Zambia's north-south rail grid and facilitating indirect freight access to the DRC. However, there is no dedicated spur from TAZARA into the DRC, and the upgraded route is not expected to extend across the border, the line passes within the logistical range of the DRC frontier. American companies remain cautious about operating in volatile jurisdictions without guarantees. Political risk insurance, development finance backing and credit support are likely prerequisites. Adesina, the co-founder and president of Sabi, a Nigerian company that connects African small-scale and artisanal miners with global buyers, said in a recent article in Semafor that the real opportunity lies in working with artisanal and small-scale miners in Africa, who play a crucial role in the global critical minerals supply chain. In the DRC, such small-scale operations contribute up to 30% of the world's cobalt supply. "Across the continent, two-thirds of lithium supplies come from small-scale miners, as does 60% of the global supply of tantalum, he writes. „The work of these operators could be boosted through targeted investment, transparent logistics and predictable payment structures that meet US regulatory and technical standards." He adds that The US government can help by establishing direct purchasing relationships and deploying financing and technical assistance. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)

Asia

Afghanistan
April 19, 2025  Around half of the nearly one million pieces of weaponry and military equipment, which the Afghan Taliban obtained following the United States’ hasty departure in 2021, have been lost, sold or smuggled to militant group. (Source: Dawn - Pakistan)

China
April 18, 2025 The trade war worsens. Which is a really powerful form of geopolitical currency? China processes almost all the world’s rare earths, a group of 17 metals used in a wide array of products in the defense, health-care and technology sectors. But as part of its retaliation against escalating U.S. tariffs, Beijing this month restricted the export of several rare earth minerals, raising the risk that U.S. industries will face shortages. Many in Washington have focused on how the new Chinese regulations will affect the U.S. military products like missiles and drones. Beijing has banned the export of critical minerals used in the defense industry — but also for some cancer treatments and MRI exams. Critical rare earths have properties like heat resistance and magnetism that make them useful components of advanced technologies. China dominates the global supply chain because of its processing capability: About 90 percent of refined rare earths came from China in 2023. The second countries start to have disruptions to medical services or medical supplies, particularly for things like cancer care. China deploys carrots and sticks to persuade countries in Asia and Africa to take its side in the superpower standoff. Even if rare earths are mined in other countries, the materials are often sent to China for refining, according to Mei a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, which is affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce. Beijing has used this dominance for political purposes before. It blocked critical mineral exports to Japan in 2010 after a territorial dispute. It also banned exports to the United States of three critical metals - gallium, germanium and antimony, which are important components of electronics, fiber optics or semiconductors - last year after the Biden administration tightened China’s access to advanced technology. This month, Beijing imposed export restrictions on seven more rare earths, including gadolinium and yttrium, citing their dual use nature, meaning that the materials have both civilian and military applications. This applies to shipments globally, not just to the United States. Companies will now be required to apply for permission to export the metals from China, which could take up to 45 days, according to the Commerce Ministry. Curbing exports of rare earths, Mei said, is a targeted strategy to bring Trump to the negotiating table, “minimizing the impact on the economy and population of our trading partners.” Some worry that the impact won’t be minimal. Rare earths are a critical not only for diagnostics but also treatment. Americans suffering from brain tumors, liver cancer and heart attacks may find their medical care disrupted. The U.S. imports a large - and increasing - swath of Chinese medical goods, including antibiotics, pain relievers and bandages, as well as precursor chemicals required to make finished drugs. Chinese pharmaceutical exports to the United States grew 11 percent in 2024 to reach $19 billion. Trump pledged to implement tariffs on foreign-made pharmaceuticals. Gadolinium is used to produce a contrast fluid that is injected into some patients before MRI exams. The fluid helps doctors more easily diagnose brain tumors. It’s a very important agent to enhance contrast for MRI. There are no direct alternatives. The global biotech industry is following the new Chinese regulations closely. Bayer, a German pharmaceutical company that sells a contrast solution, said it is actively monitoring the situation. While the firm’s gadolinium originates in China, Bayer “utilizes a diverse network of suppliers of gadolinium around the world” and doesn’t expect “any immediate impact related to contrast supply for U.S. customers and patients” based on its current supply. Other rare earths on China’s restriction list, including lutetium and yttrium, are used in cancer drugs called radiopharmaceuticals and medical tools like lasers that shrink lung tumors. From 2020 to 2023, 93 percent of U.S. imports of yttrium compounds came from China. It has recently invested in expanding its radiopharmaceutical manufacturing. A subsidiary of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corp. unveiled a large production base in southwestern Sichuan in December, aimed at producing lutetium-based drugs for breast cancer and prostate cancer treatment, according to a company news release. It remains unclear exactly how the new regulations will filter into U.S. health-care supply chains. Some Chinese exporters are already feeling the change since the April 4 restrictions. Shanghai-based Greenearth Chemicals, which exports rare earth materials including gadolinium and yttrium for medical applications, had stopped all exports after the policy change. New Radiomedicine Technology, a company in Chengdu that is developing pharmaceuticals using rare earths, said it hadn’t begun exporting yet but selling overseas would now be impossible with the regulations. China’s export control authorities will fully consider the humanitarian needs of American patients, said Mei. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, an industry group, said in an April 6 statement that the export controls “will not affect regular business activities or normal corporate operation and trade.” Chinese suppliers will continue to strengthen the win-win cooperation with friendly countries, it said, unless the trading partner is engaged in activities that harm China’s national sovereignty, security and development interests. (Source: The Washington Post - U.S.)

April 18, 2025  While backing away from other levies on individual countries beyond the 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports to the United States announced earlier this month, Trump has imposed 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods. China has retaliated with its own 125 percent tariffs on imported American goods. Beijing may be better equipped to withstand the negative economic shocks caused by the tariffs. Trump's trade war with China could push the foreign creditor country-the second-largest holder of U.S. debt after Japan - to dump its Treasury holdings, sending mortgage rates skyrocketing for millions of Americans. China's President Xi has promised to fight the Trump administration's escalation of tariffs to the end - and there is a chance he might do so through a very dangerous weapon the country has in its arsenal as of early 2025: more than $760 billion in holdings in U.S. Treasury securities. Just weeks ago, the 10-year yield rose by 50 basis points to 4.49 percent, the biggest weekly jump since 2001. This happens when someone sells bonds-lots of them, in this case. While it is not known precisely where the spike in activity came from, its timing suggests that Beijing may have been behind it. About a decade ago, China used to hold even more U.S. debt, at over $1.3 trillion. Considering the ongoing trade war with the U.S., it is hard to predict what it could now do. China seems willing to sell U.S. treasuries, even if it means absorbing capital losses, Blanchard, the Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics emeritus at MIT, wrote in a post on X on April 10. There have been big movements in bonds overnight recently when the China market is open, and ours is closed, suggesting that China is selling U.S. treasuries. If there is a large sale, that could depress prices and increase yields, Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, told. According to Golara, an assistant professor of supply chain and operations management at Georgia State University's Robinson College of Business, the risk of a sudden, large-scale sell-off remains low, as such a move would damage China's own financial interests by devaluing its remaining holdings and destabilizing global currency markets. But Beijing could still use the threat of a treasury sale as a bargaining chip, he told. 'The broader risk lies in this gradual shift away from U.S. Treasuries'. Recent trends show China reallocating reserves into gold and other non-dollar assets, signaling a long-term diversification strategy, he said. A China-led sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds would have enormous consequences for the global and U.S. domestic markets. Treasuries are not just safe assets - they are the foundation of global finance, serving as pristine collateral in lending and trading, Golara said. 'If China off-loads a significant share of its holdings, Treasury prices would fall, yields would rise and the value of collateral would decline. This could trigger margin calls and forced liquidations across the world, accelerating financial stress and sell-offs,' he explained. Treasuries bonds are the risk-free benchmark in financial asset pricing, Golara said. If they are perceived as volatile or politically weaponized, their credibility erodes. As a result, discount rates would rise globally, reducing the present value of future earnings and dragging down asset prices across the board-stocks, real estate, corporate bonds, and more, he said. 'A loss of confidence in Treasuries could also accelerate global diversification away from dollar assets, putting the U.S. reserve currency status at risk.' In the U.S., rising Treasury yields would mean higher borrowing costs for the federal government and businesses, tighter financial conditions, and a heavier fiscal burden. "With about 36 trillion of US government debt outstanding, the interest on the debt weighs heavily on the federal budget," Golara said. If bond yields rise, the U.S. could have compounding troubles in paying interest on the debt, leading to larger budget deficits. Mortgage rates-which closely track the 10-year Treasury yield-would also climb as a result of a possible sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by China, further weakening an already fragile housing market and dampening consumer spending. These effects could magnify recessionary pressures, Golara said. For China, a sudden sell-off of U.S. Treasuries would also be extremely costly, increasing the value of its currency and, thus, the cost of Chinese exports even further. "First, if they do this, this amounts to a capital war, not just a trade war. And they risk fierce retaliation by the U.S.," Golara said. "Also a stronger yuan would hurt export competitiveness, reduce the value of its remaining reserves, and introduce instability into its own economy. Ultimately, a Treasury sell-off would inflict mutual economic damage, and turmoil in the broader global system," he said. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, told that the risk of China weaponizing its U.S. Treasury holdings is overhyped and overblown. China's real weapon, Hanke said, is the uncertainty that [Beijing] can create with its large Treasury holdings. Investors are worried about a 'sudden Chinese Treasury dump, he said. "However, such a dump could backfire on the People's Bank of China's exchange rate management regime, which is a sensitive operation that is enhanced by low volatility". As a result, China's weaponization of its U.S. debt holdings is much ado about nothing. The real risk of weaponization, he said, is in the United States' hands. 'The United States Treasury could simply decide to cancel China's debt holdings, although this would have drastic consequences for the Treasury market, broader financial markets and the U.S. economy.' During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised to bring down mortgage rates, which have remained historically high since the Federal Reserve began its aggressive rate-hiking campaign to combat inflation in 2022. As of April 10, mortgage rates on 30-year fixed home loans averaged 6.62 percent. While mortgage rates have been declining recently due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump's tariffs on the market, an increase linked to the U.S.-China trade war is likely to make the president take a step back. The only keys to the exit door from this trade war "are in President Trump's desk drawer," added Hanke, who served on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers. 'At present, it appears that Trump has no intention of abandoning what is probably the dumbest economic policy move of the last century,' he added. 'In fact, the last time beggar-thy-neighbor policies were embraced was at the onset of the Great Depression, when Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which crashed the stock market and drove the U.S. into a catastrophic economic plunge.' (Source: Miami Herald / Newsweek = U.S.)

(17 April 2025)  US says Chinese firm is helping Houthis target American warships. Satellite company linked to People’s Liberation Army has supplied images to Iran-backed group in Yemen, say officials. The Trump administration has repeatedly warned Beijing that Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co Ltd, a commercial group with ties to the People’s Liberation Army is supplying Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen with imagery to target US warships and international vessels in the Red Sea. CGSTL has previously come under US scrutiny, and was among groups hit by sanctions in 2023 for allegedly providing high-resolution satellite imagery to Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary army. The Chinese company was established in 2014 as a joint venture between the provincial government in Jilin and a branch of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Changchun, the province’s capital. Chang Guang is one of a handful of ‘ostensibly’ commercial Chinese satellite companies that are in fact deeply embedded in the military-civil fusion ecosystem, supplying global surveillance capabilities to both civilian and military customers, said Mulvenon, an expert on the Chinese military and intelligence services at Pamir Consulting. Under China’s military-civil fusion programme, companies must share technology with the PLA when ordered by the government. Bruzzese, a China defence expert at BluePath Labs, a consulting firm that works with the US government, last year said CGSTL had 100 satellites in orbit, although it plans to have 300 by the end of 2025 which would enable it to take repeat images of any location in the world every 10 minutes. Bruzzese said CGSTL had close connections to the Chinese government, communist party and military. Bruzzese added that CGSTL had provided briefings to senior Chinese officials about its applications, including those for military intelligence and had demonstrated its technology before several top PLA officers, including Zhang, the top general in the Chinese military who is second-in-command after President Xi. The concern about CGSTL comes amid a deepening trade war between the Washington and Beijing. Trump has made tackling Red Sea instability a priority, amid concerns that the Houthis continue to pose a threat to the global economy. US concerns about CGSTL come as the Pentagon increasingly focuses on Chinese military activity in space. (Source: Financial Times - United Kingdom)

April 11, 2025  China today escalated tariffs on imports from the United States to 125 percent, in response to U.S. President Trump's punishing regime against Chinese goods higher and higher to 145 percent earlier this week in response to what it alleges is Beijing’s complicity in the flow of fentanyl to the U.S. If the U.S. insists on continuing to substantially infringe on China’s interests, China will resolutely counterattack and fight to the end, Beijing's economic mandarins said. While other countries have been granted a 90-day partial reprieve on the so-called reciprocal tariffs - with a 10 percent baseline remaining - China was excluded. (Source: Politico - based in U.S., owned by a German company)

April 11, 2025  During a today meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in Beijing, China’s leader Xi called on the EU to join forces against the U.S, telling Sánchez that there are no winners in a trade war, and going against the world will only lead to self-isolation. Xi urged China and the EU to jointly safeguard the trend of economic globalization and a fair international trade environment, and jointly resist unilateral and intimidating practices. (Source: Politico - based in U.S., owned by a German company)

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