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Europe
Romania
10/02/2025 - 14:32 Outgoing president Iohannis resigned today. His mandate was extended in December after the Constitutional Court cancelled last year's presidential race, plunged the state into institutional chaos, accusing Russia of having interfered in the campaign when little-known ’far-right’ NATO critic Georgescu won the first round of a presidential election and Romania's top court voided the entire election. Accusations of Russian interference were denied by Moscow. With the two rounds of the election set to be re-run on May 4 and May 18, Romania's top court had said Iohannis, whose second and last term expired on December 21, would stay on until his successor was elected. In January, three far-right opposition parties, which control around 35% of parliament seats, filed a motion to impeach the deeply unpopular Iohannis. Senate speaker Bolojan, head of the Liberal Party, a member of the ruling coalition, will take over as interim president with limited powers until the election. The three ’hard-right’ groupings, whose support has risen since Georgescu's surprise win, had used their campaign against Iohannis as a reason to stage protests and seize the political agenda. (Source: France24 / Reuters - United Kingdom)
10.02.2025 President Iohannis announced his resignation today. The move came after opposition’s motion filed in parliament to impeach him. Iohannis’ second and last term expired on Dec. 21, but he was to stay until a successor is elected. The two-round election will now be held on May 4. In December, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the presidential run-off scheduled for Dec. 8. 'Far-right' Georgescu had won the first round on Nov. 24. (Source: Anadolu Agency - Turkey)
European Commission
(10 February 2025) The European Union will conduct a review of its multi-billion euro external aid. The EU and its member states are collectively the biggest donor for international aid in the world, providing nearly €96 billion in 2023, while the US spent nearly $72 billion (€69,852 billion) in foreign support. The Commission will outline ideas in the coming weeks to improve its next seven-year budget from 2028 to 2034 and intends to present its next long-term budget proposal in July. The EU’s trillion-euro-long-term budget will become more difficult this time around as €30 billion in debt from the pandemic recovery fund needs to be paid back annually and a majority of member states also want massive funding for defence. (Source: Luxembourg Times)
European Union
Monday 10/02/2025 Leaders of 'far-right' parties in the European Parliament’s third-largest voting bloc, Patriots for Europe, praised Trump’s return to power at a gathering in Madrid on February 8 held under the slogan “Make Europe Great Again.” Patriots consists of 86 MEPs from 14 countries. Some of the EU’s most influential parties in the camp of nationalist conservatives, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Alternative for Germany and Poland’s Law and Justice, have refused to join. The event featured Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian deputy premier Salvini, as well as the leaders of France’s National Rally (RN), Le Pen and the Netherlands’ PVV party Wilders. “The Trump tornado has changed the world in just a few weeks … yesterday we were heretics, today we’re mainstream,” Orbán told around 2,000 supporters, most of whom waved Spanish flags. All the speakers railed against immigration and most called for a new “Reconquista,” a reference to the Medieval re-conquest of Muslim-controlled parts of the Iberian Peninsula by Christian kingdoms. A video message by Venezuelan opposition leader Machado, excoriating what he called “leftists” was interrupted by a topless activist from feminist group Femen before she was ejected. Other themes included frequent right-wing targets such as “wokism,” migrant rescue NGOs, European Commission’s der Leyen and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, whose names were met with loud jeers. Madrid was chosen as venue for their first official summit so that Patriots’ president Abascal, who leads Spain’s Vox party, could host. Vox has steadily gained ground in several polls over the past months. According to the Centre for Sociological Studies (CIS), it garners the strongest support among young men, members of the military and law enforcement. (Source: The Arab Weekly, a publication by Al Arab Publishing House in London. It is printed in three editions: In the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates and The United States.
Kaliningrad
February 10, 2025 The Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea has become an energy island after the Baltics States cut themselves off from the Soviet-era BRELL power grid on February 8 and has become vulnerable to sanctions thanks to its dependence on Lithuanian gas transit. It must generate all its electricity independently, Lithuania is no longer supplying or transferring power. Lithuania continues to transit natural gas to Kaliningrad. In 2023, Lithuania transited 2.3bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas to the exclave. Amongst the measures Russia took to improve Kaliningrad’s energy security were to double its gas-fired power capacity, constructing an €780mn gas storage facility with a capacity of approximately 800mn cubic metres, and acquiring the Marshal Vasilevsky tanker, a $300mn LNG terminal ship. The LNG terminal could supply Kaliningrad’s full gas demand of up to 3.7 bcm per year. LNG is about four and half-times more expensive than the piped gas the enclave currently receives via Lithuania. (Source: bne IntelliNews - Germany)
Russia
10.02.2025 Europe’s position in the modern world is now fundamentally changing. The most important factor in these changes is the relationship between Europeans and their senior partners in America. These relations have become the most important factor in the development of Europe and its position in international politics throughout the 20th century. Now they have become central and determine the nature of the processes and changes taking place there. The central element of the unequal partnership between the US and Europe is security. The role of the US in relation to the states of Europe has always been limited to two issues. First, containing the restoration of European great power and militarism. Second, using Europe as a territorial base for its confrontation with Russia. Discussions about the "American security umbrella" are nothing more than a myth - a simplified view for propaganda purposes. The concept of the "American security umbrella" over Europe means artificially limiting the scope of one's intellectual search. There is no “umbrella,” but rather a US protectorate over Europe, established without enthusiasm, but with the support of a segment of the European elite, and leading this region to further degradation. The largest European countries – Great Britain, Germany and France - have gone through a slow but inevitable erosion of their role in world politics in one way or another, to accomplish even the most ill-contrived goals of the USA. Their economic benefits from such a humiliated position are becoming increasingly insignificant. Europe could very well ensure its security and development, but it cannot do so, since it is constantly forced to pursue a suicidal foreign policy. The very concept of a “security umbrella” is absurd. Since we are far from thinking that a threat to Europe could come from North African countries, China, or the Middle East, 'the only enemy is Russia'. However, it is linked to the United States by a relationship of strategic deterrence, based on the direct and immediate threat of causing unacceptable damage to each other’s territory and population. It is strange to think that the US could ever put its own survival at risk in order to protect Europeans from a massive attack by, say, Russia. Even those who voluntarily transferred a significant part of their sovereign rights to the Americans, as happened with Germany, Italy, Britain or Turkey in the case of the deployment of US nuclear weapons there, these countries sacrificed their sovereignty, but it cannot be said that they received anything convincing in exchange in terms of ensuring their own security, which shows us the degree to which the survival strategy of Berlin, Rome, Ankara or London is subordinated to the interests of the US. Europe, including Turkey, is important for the US as a territory from which they can develop their hostile policy towards Russian interests. But nothing more. Major powers are, in principle, relatively calm about changes in the balance of power between their weaker partners. For them, this is not a factor that directly influences the solution of the most important foreign policy tasks of the state. Such categories as the "security umbrella" can only operate in cases where there is a potential clash with a much weaker adversary that is not capable of seriously threatening the main territory of a great power. This is how Russia's allied relations with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries work. If the actions of the ally country are not absurd, then the major power will, of course, come to its aid, as happened at the time of the threat of the collapse of statehood in Kazakhstan in January 2022. Due to the fact that the existence of such a category as the "security umbrella" in the Russia-USA-Europe triangle is impossible even at a theoretical level, the only thing that Europeans get in return is an illusory confidence in the impunity of their own irresponsible behaviour. For now, even the largest European countries behave like the former Soviet Baltic republics. But it is completely unknown what will happen when the strategic interests of the United States no longer require such a serious territorial presence in the western part of Eurasia. Considering that the rivalry between the United States and China has every chance of becoming a central element of international politics in the coming decades, we are far from thinking that Europe itself is capable of maintaining a state of cold war with Russia. For now, the key factors restraining the normalisation of Europe's behaviour are American pressure and the crisis state of its own elites. Reducing pressure from the United States, which consistently forces Europe to be hostile to Russia, may lead to a fairly rapid change not only in the rhetoric, but also in the practice of European foreign policy. The issue with the elites will be somewhat more complicated: we see what many politicians are like at the national level and, especially, by observing their nominees to the institutions of the European Union. Negative selection, based on incompetence and corrupt relationships with American companies, has produced a generation of politicians who have nothing to do with the interests of their countries. If Europe's only objective foreign policy function – the space for deploying American forces and resources in the event of a conflict with Russia – is reduced, new politicians with a new worldview and professional qualities will be in demand. (Source: The Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank and discussion forum - Russia / Reuters - United Kingdom)
by Bordachev
Europe
(10 February 2025) European gas prices hit two-year high as supply fears intensify. Gas consumption in Europe is expected to rise by 17% this month from a year ago, driven by residential and commercial demand. Inventories are only 49% full compared with 67% at the same time last year. Northwest Europe is bracing for freezing temperatures in the coming days, which could further boost heating demand. Inventories will be 37% full by the end of winter, is forecasted. Benchmark futures rose as much as 5.4% today to €58.75 a megawatt-hour. That’s the highest since February 2023, after contracts posted four consecutive weeks of gains. Norway’s upcoming summer maintenance season may also cap supplies at a time when the market is already tight. Traders' rushing to snap up protection against surging European gas prices is signalling they expect further disruptions to supplies. (Source: Luxembourg Times / Bloomberg)
North America
United States
February 10, 2025, Monday Trump adviser advocates for European responsibility in Ukraine’s post-war security. National security adviser Waltz pointed out that President Trump plans to address the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in Europe next week, with the US Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Vice President, and Special Envoy scheduled to discuss plans for peace. Waltz also highlighted that the US is seeking to recover the costs of its military aid to Ukraine, proposing partnerships with Ukraine on natural resources, including rare earths and energy, to offset those expenditures. This partnership would involve Ukraine leveraging its natural resources, oil, and gas, in return for support from the US. Waltz added that the priority was to get all sides to the negotiating table, stating that Russia's economy is struggling and that global leaders, including those from China, India, and the Middle East, are eager to help end the war.US Vice President Vance is scheduled to meet President Zelensky during the Munich Security Conference, which takes place from February 14 to 16. The Munich conference will serve as a platform for discussions on future US strategies for ending the war. Meanwhile, Kellogg, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, is expected to attend the conference and engage with US allies. Sources have indicated that the Trump administration may present a new plan to resolve the conflict, although Kellogg has denied that a definitive peace plan will be unveiled during the event. (Source: Novinite, a Bulgarian English-language news provider based in Sofia / ’NBC News - U.S.; Ukrainska Pravda - Ukraine; ISW - U.S.; CBS News - U.S.”)
Global
9 February 2025 Transnational repression is a set of physical and digital tactics used by governments to stifle dissent among political exiles or diaspora communities in other countries. Governments perpetrated 160 total incidents of physical transnational repression across 34 countries in 2024, including assassinations, abductions, assaults, detentions, and unlawful deportations. The governments of Uganda, Cambodia, Russia, Iran, and China were the top perpetrators of transnational repression in 2024. Seventy-three incidents from 2024 were mass events involving the simultaneous targeting of three or more people. The largest such incident occurred in Kenya, where 36 Ugandan activists were abducted and returned to Uganda, and charged with “receiving terrorist training” for participating in a civil society workshop. Two other mass incidents took place in Thailand. In February, three Cambodian activists were detained for planning protests in advance of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet’s first visit to Thailand. In a separate incident in November, six Cambodian activists were deported from Thailand and now face charges of treason in Cambodia for posting comments critical of the country’s authorities on Facebook. Authorities in Turkey and Russia also targeted groups of people with renditions and attempted unlawful deportations. The Chinese Communist Party remains the world’s leading perpetrator of transnational repression and is responsible for 272 recorded physical incidents since 2014. In March, individuals working for the Ministry of State Security tried to kidnap a Chinese dissident and force him onto an international flight at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle Airport. The government of Tajikistan is now among the most aggressive in pursuing dissidents abroad and was responsible for 9 incidents in 2024, and 92 since 2014. In November 2024, German authorities deported Ergashev, an opposition activist who participated in several peaceful protests against the Tajikistani government and has sought asylum in Germany since 2011. He was taken into custody upon landing in Dushanbe and remains in prison. In similar cases, people have been sentenced to decades in prison after being returned to Tajikistan. /Source: International Freedom of Expression Exchange (IFEX) - a global network, based in Toronto, Ontario, Canada/
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